Win 306232 though they gave trump the 10 votes of New Hampshire and nevada instead of wisconsins. Still trafalgar said 306 trump won, 306. Then in the 2018 midterms in florida trafalgar was the only firm to show ron desantis show winning the governor race. As real clear politics put it, trafalgar predicted senate outcomes in missouri, north dakota, texas making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among the firms that polled several races. Theyre not infallible. They didnt think that cinema would defeat mcsally in arizona and widely overestimated the margin of victory in georgia but the group is again predicting a trump victory. Even though most others predict a Biden Victory and many regard the methods as suspect. Currently cnn has biden already above the needed 270 and trump with 163. And the rest of the states too close to call. Trafalgar is saying 275 for trump, 216 for biden, 47 tossup. Are they on to something . Or smoking something . Heres what phillip bump of the Washington Post had to say yesterday. The word i would use to describe the claims is laughable. From the claim of the sample size and unsound. To his claims about the ways in which they do the polling which are both unproven and subject to a lot of fluctuation that real pollsters try to avoid. I would say that someone who is trying to bank on having made a correct guess in one election is not necessarily someone who you should assume necessarily is a strong track record of success. Similarly, nate silver of the 538 blog tweeted this, i dont know what theyre doing but it is not a good sign i always know what a poll will say without having to open the link. Lets find out what they are doing and why they were among the only ones to get it right last time. Joining me is robert kahali. People want to know if youre the broken clock of pollsters. You get it right by accident twice a day or whether you know something. How does the methodology differ from the rest . Thanks. Good to be here. What i think youre finding is these guys are making pot shots but the fellow from the Washington Post didnt do the research. He said we got one election right. Theres a statistic that the the Washington Post can get nowhere near in their polling so what theyre pointing to is they think that our methodling because its different is wrong. First of all we believe that people arent honest with pollsters. Thats the modern world. It is around for a while. It was in play in 2016. Shot trump voters. You have heard this theory and certainly in play in the governors race in florida last year and why they all got it wrong again and its great they have strong opinions but facts do matter and if a broken clock is right twice a day then you got to consider we have been right so many times that its a group of different broken clocks apparently. The social desirability issue that you explain, others call the bradley effect. I remember that race and you say people are lying. Theyre lying to pollsters. Then how are you able to get their real feelings and emotions where others cannot . First and foremost, we do get greater sense of anonymity. The worst way to poll these people is a live call where you have a live person asking someone whether they support trump. Everybody in the audience, everyone you know, you can think of a few people that support trump that dont want to share it with anybody. Assume they get a polling call. Do you think theyre saying the theyre voting for trump . Thats a national effect. Now if they get a call they feel like, hey, this is anonymous and make the feelings known then youre much more likely to get a real answer. It is like the social media account you putt your pictures of family and kids on and then the one that people troll others on. Thats whats going to vote. Robert, some of the data its general rating does seem fantastical. Heres Something Else that nate silver said. Silver said, im not a cross tabs guy here but this is crazy. Trump is not going to 30 of the democratic vote in michigan. Biden is not going to win 25 of republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points. Isnt he right . Those are the cross tabs and trump is not winning 30 of the democratic vote. Nate silver doesnt understand the way michigan works. It is not a registration by party state so the Party Registration is based on the local primary voting. Say you live in wayne county. You probably voted the democratic primary to have a say so in county government but voting for trump. Another person classed as a democrat that voted for trump. The lack of Party Registration means that your party is reflected by what local primaries you vote in. Everybody in america can relate. To participate at a local level and having Different National feelings and maybe if nate understood this hed see it differently. Heres another one. These are guys that speak your language. I hope this isnt above the rest of it. David wasserman, to me the fact that they publish ridiculous 60person cross tabs of pennsylvanias 18 districts is the biggest tell they dont really know what theyre doing. What is your response to that . I dont see how if you add up the cross tabs you certainly get to the point where you have the full 1,000person sample. By their math you rather go with the small 400, 500, 600 sample size. We have a minimum of 1,000. We have a lower margin of error. Im sure there are lots of guys like that that attack the pony express defenders that attack the telegraph lines but theyll be wrong again. Pennsylvania. Ill put this on the screen. Let me show you where the cnn poll of polls is. You show it 48. 4 to 47. 6 essentially a tie. Cnn says a 7point race. Let me move on to wisconsin next. Wisconsin, huge outlier. 47. 1 to 47. 5. You have wisconsin by 9. For pardon me. Cnn has wisconsin by 9 for joe biden. Wherein lies that disconnect . A 9point race or a dead heat . I like my record versus cnn polls in the last two cycles. Ill stand by that. On wednesday morning, youre either going to be someone with egg on his face or someone who i guess is again going to be able to say i got it right. The charge is that youre in the tank for trump. Respond to that. Well, then explain why in 2018 we called quite a few races that the republicans really wanted to win like john james. I think john james is a great guy but Debbie Stabenow would win and dismissed the challenge against joe manchin in july as being ineffective and called the race for manchin. We predicted evers to defeat the scott walker in wisconsin and we also called that tester would defeat rosen dahl in montana when the republicans wanted rosendale to win. Why would i do that . These guys serve a client. Our client, our only focus is getting it right. We are not pushing paid political agenda and we dont live by the click. I know that its not inexpensive to be in the field in all these battleground states. Who pays for the data i just shared with the cnn audience . When we put a everything is on our social media. If we put a president ial poll out and dont list a partner, then we pay for the president ial question ourselves. We quite often sell additional questions as many pollsters do. Nobody pays for a president ial question as we put out ourselves and with a partner thats made clear in the post. Robert, thank you for being here. Always good to be here, michael. Does the outlier Trafalgar Group have the insight everybody else is missing or are the polls right this time . Joining me is senior Political Writer harry entan. Wheres the fault with their methodology. Hes used the pony express line a lot but its not live interviewers and pollsters arent. Such as cbs ugov. You remember Homer Simpson with an auto dialer in the 1990s. Theres nothing to me that suggest that his methodology is anymore unique and not all that tran transparent about it. He mentions the record from 2017 to 2019. The 2018 midterms. His polls in those years were biassed in favor of the gop candidates by 4 points. If that is the case this time around, even just the average, he would have joe biden ahead in many of the swing states. Harry, what of this business . You hear it that theres the shy trump voter. It seems at one level illogical because the trump voters i see or watch on television seem very proud to wear trump on their sleeve. Nevertheless, there are elections in the past where there was a hidden vote because people are embarrassed to say im for that guy. In this instance, portrayed sometimes as racist or xenophobic. Might there be something to that . Look. We cant say for sure that donald trump is going to lose this election. He still has a chance. I wanted to be very, very clear about that but if you look at the nonlive interview polls, the ones done online, done by automated phone, they find joe biden ahead so sure its possible theres a hidden trump vote but no real proof of it in the pudding. Some of the polling even when you remove trafalgar, rasmussen and you go with more names that are wellknown in american households, is coming to different conclusions. Ill give you an example. Wisconsin, i looked at an abc the Washington Post poll. I compared it to there it is. Abc the Washington Post says 5758 for biden. Marquette says 4843. One says 9. Another says 5. How can both be true . Look. They both cant be true. Right . The point is if one had a 17point margin, one with a 5point margin. Theyre tools, not perfect. Woes we should be seeing that spread and an indication that the pollsters do their job and why im all about taking the average and the averages right now even with a polling miss same sizes a 2016 joe biden would be ahead in the race. That doesnt mean donald trump cant win. Michael moore said something interesting. Katherine, do we have the tape . I would love for harry to respond to this. Listen. Dont believe these polls. First of all. Second of all, the trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters when they call a real trump voter, the trump voters very suspicious of the deep state calling them and asking them who theyre voting for and they its all fake news to them. Remember. Is he on to something, harry . I dont think so. I mean, look, again, ill go over the point over and orr again. When you look at the automated phone polls or the online polls, you see the same basic leads for joe biden. This doesnt mean that donald trump cant win but it simply means i do not see it in the data at this point and im someone whos all about data. I just cant make it anymore clearly than that. A note about trafalgar where you sort of mentioned earlier. He mentioned he got the right in the Texas Senate Race but vastly overestimated ted cruzs margin and what we see over and over again. Well see if he gets it right in 2020. I dont think he will based upon the mountain of evidence we see before us. Harry, thank you as always. I really preeshs your expertise. Thank you, sir. What are your thoughts . Tweet me or go to my facebook page. What about a donald trump blowout . It is kind of funny, john, we think you know, you look at the data and seems like its headed for a biden blowout or a squeaker maybe. Nobody seems to talk about that. That would be completely unsupported unsupported by the data and even by trafalgars data. Robert wouldnt say thats in the cards. Even he concedes he thinks its a joe biden popular vote victory. So no one is calling for that outcome. I want to know what you think. Go to my website and answer this weeks survey question. When will america know the results of the president ial vote . Are we going to know Election Night . Will we know within three days of the election . More than three days or when the Supreme Court rules on it . Cast your ballot. Up ahead, although tuesday is officially election day unprecedented numbers of americans have already voted. Whats this tell us . And who does it help . Plus, dont take my word that pennsylvania is the key to 2020. Look at both campaigns which are spending the final hours swamping the commonwealth with events. But might all these rallies have less impact than this weeks killing by Philadelphia Police of a 27yearold black man and the subsequent civil unrest . Angt Rheumatoid Arthritis is often unseen. Because the pain youre feeling could be a sign of irreversible joint damage. Every day you live with pain, swelling, and stiffness. You risk not being able to do the things you love. Especially in these times, its important to keep up with your rheumatologist. Schedule an appointment today. Of all the swing states this election cycle the one that seems most competitive is my home state of pennsylvania. Look at the headlines. One reason the states complex population mirrors the divides of america. Depressed former coal and steel towns. Thriving wealthy cities. Frackers. Remember, the president won the states 20 electoral votes in 2016 point 44,000,. 7 of a percentage point. The candidates think it pivotal and have been visited repeatedly. Today President Trump will make comments in bucks county and then three rallies. Hes also campaigning in scranton on monday. This makes ten Campaign Stops in the state after five in september. Joe biden will be in michigan tonight with president obama but is also appearing in philadelphia tomorrow. After many previous appearances in the state the final two months. Driving home the significance of the state on monday, the final day of the campaign, it will be Vice President biden, senator Kamala Harris and their spouses all scheduled to campaign in all four corners of the commonwealth. Among the big unknown factors adding to this years drama, the first time the states allowing no excuse mailin voting in a president ial contest and just this week the Supreme Court of the United States turned down a gop request to rule on the state Supreme Courts threeday extension deadline to tally mailin votes saying it was too close to the election to change but that issue might be revisited after the election the the Fatal Shooting by Philadelphia Police of Walter Wallace jr. , a 27yearold africanamerican man with Mental Health issues and a rap sheet wielding a knife and whose own family called 911 for help. Wallaces family said they called for an ambulance and the Police Showed up. The family attorney said after viewing the body cam footage of police they dont want the officers to face murder charges. The reasoning is that the officers only had the resources for deadly force. The officers fired 14 times at wallace from about a car and a half length distance. The officers did not have tasers which the mayor says is due to budget constraints. This city has failed not only the Wallace Family, not only the other members of that community, who will be scarred and traumatized for the remainder of their days but the city failed those police officers, failed them tremendously. The only remedy the police had in that moment per their thinking was their service weapon. There was no lessletal option available. The shooting set off protests, looting and violent clashes with police and both candidates felt compelled to address it. Its a terrible thing, what im witnessing is terrible, and frankly, that the mayor or whoever it is thats allowing people to riot and loot and not stop them is also just a horrible thing. Again, a democratrun state, a democratrun city. Philadelphia. We dont have that. We dont have it. The republicans dont have it. Theres no excuse whatsoever for the looting and the violence. None whatsoever. I think to be able to protest is totally legitimate. There are certain things we have to do and that is how we deal with how do we diminish the pros suspect of lethal shooting in circumstances like the one we saw. On thursday the Wallace Family was shown the Police Body Cam footage. The public has not yet seen it. On friday police announced it will be released november 4. The mayor, the District Attorneys Office and the Wallace Family said they hope that this will quote provide enough time to calm tensions and for the recordings to be released in the most constructive manner possible. However, it is certainly not a coincidence to choose to release the tape only after the election. Joining me now is cherry greg, an attorney and Community Affairs reporter for kyw news radio. Cherry, are you surprised that the family has said, hey, we dont want the police prosecuted in this case, at least not for murder . Im not surprised at all and the reason is because this was a Mental Health crisis. They needed help. The mother kathy brant, she mentioned she had fallen in the home, trying to calm her son down. They needed help. Calming Walter Wallace jr. Down. So when police came what she said she wanted was for them to talk him down, to tase him, to do anything except shoot him the way that they did. So i dont think that they believe that these officers intentionally tried to like murder their son in that way. Instead, they believe that the only option that these officers had was to use a weapon that dispatched deadly force. So the wawa i visit every saturday morning in center city was boarded up this morning. A sign of the times. The decision to release this the day after the election, do you think that that was because of the election . In other words, concern on the part of the city that President Trump would use this as a political means if in fact theres more unrest after people see the tape . I do think that. We are in the middle of an election. All eyes are on pennsylvania as you said earlier. I went to the polls on the last day of early voting and a lot of people told me they were motivated but other people in the community told me they felt a sense of despair and i think putting that video out, having people be retraumatized. People are traumatized every time they see the videos. They feel a sense of hopelessness and so you dont want that happening right before an election. And the hopelessness is what leads to the looting, what leads to the rioting and, you know, that community in west philadelphia, ive been coveringed for many years and they were just starting to recover from the riots and the looting that took place earlier this year after the death of george floyd so they wanted some calm so that people would not feel uncomfortable going to the polls on election day. I was glad to see that so many people were unafraid and not deterred on the last day of early voting which was on tuesday just 24 hours, less than 24 hours after the shooting occurred. I totally get that latter point that you dont want there to be unrest. You never want there to be unrest but unrest that then causes people to be frightened about coming out and participating on tuesday. By the same token, and i agree with that. But by the same token, if youre saying we wont release it because we dont want to give trump something that he can complain about, then it strikes me different and probably running afoul of the way that the city should be looking at this. You get the final word. I dont necessarily think that this is a trump focus. I think its a safety issue. Any government has to balance the needs for information and transparency with Public Safety, and i mean, i was out there in june and late may for the protests and riots that took place. I was tear gassed at the time. I didnt feel like my personal physical safety was in danger but it does cause Police Resources to be focused in neighborhoods and we dont know what is going to happen in philadelphia on election day. Weve been the target of all sorts of tweets and disinformation throughout the weeks leading to this election and so the i think, this is my personal opinion, that the city must balance Public Safety with transparency and i think that this decision is a perfect balance of that. Thank you so much for being here. Thank you. Up ahead, early voting is dominating this election. In texas the number of ballots cast so far surpassed the states total turnout from 2016. What impact might this have on overall turnout and the results . And go to the website smerconish. Com. Answer the survey question. When will we know the results of the president ial election . Listerine® cleans virtually 100 . Helping to prevent gum disease and bad breath. Never settle for 25 . Always go for 100. 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Weve got the retinol that gives you results in one week. Not just any retinol. Accelerated retinol sa. One week is all it takes. Neutrogena®. With election day truly now right around the corner, voter turnout reached unprecedented levels. According to data from the u. S. Election project over 89 Million People have already voted over 57 million by mail, over 32 million in person. Another staggering statistic, vo voters cast over 65 of the votes cast in the 2016 election. With key states like texas surpassing the total turnout of 2016 this time around. With voter turnout high and a few days left to go, what picture does the voting data paint heading into tuesday . Joining me now to parse through the data is the creator of u. S. Elections project and Political Science professor at university of florida, michael mcdonald. First of all, isnt it great news . Who would have thought that in the midst of a pandemic wed be setting records . Yeah. Absolutely. It is a good news story that we are holding an election when we were very concerned about the capability of Election Officials to do that. Its another great news story, too, is that because people have voted early they spread out the workload of officials over a longer period of time and helping officials manage the election better, helping them reach out to voters with problems and fix the problems. Right. Except in states like mine where theyre not going to process the ballots until election day. I worry what that process looks look. Lacking your exper piece, i say President Trump has disparaging mailin voting, sometimes he likes to distinguish between mailin and absentee. How can you not say its an enormous advantage for Vice President biden . This is a fascinating election on many fronts. But if you take a big step back and look at the big picture, more democrats have voted early and thats typical. We usually see more democrats vote early. It is the way they vote early is different than in the past and also how republicans are voting. So in the past its been democrats voting in person early. And the republicans tend to vote for mail. This election it is all twisted around seeing democrats vote by mail and republicans vote in person. Now theres variation in the states but thats the general trend. Let put up the total numbers, the total voted by Party Registration. This is both in person and mail ballots. Democrats 46. 2 . Republicans 30 . Does that not sound like significant advantage joe biden . Again, this is something that typically happens. More democrats vote early. They usually vote in person early. This time by mail. We also have a large number of people voting early, too. Let keep that in mind. Election day itself tends to be a very republican day with lots of republicans voting in person on election day and it is that tug of war going on between the early vote and the election data that determines the outcome of the election. If we got more early vote coming in thats democratic the republicans will have to make up more ground in the election day vote and since theres less of it we expect it means its more difficult for trump to make up ground. Not impossible. Theres not places where i think its very close so we have to wait and see what that election day vote tells us. I want to differentiate between mail ballots returned and inperson votes. Almost doubles those of inperson voting. I think i heard you say one is preferred by democrats, the mailin. Inperson is more of a money historically means of getting out. What does that differentiation mean . It means on balance that the early vote is more democratic. And we still have a little bit more mail ballots to come back in. Theres still about 34 million mail ballots that havent been processed by officials or not returned by voters yets so theres a little bit more gas in the tank there for the democrats. Early voting, inperson early voting in many states is ending or has ended and some more play for the democrats in the early vote that republicans are petering out because the inperson option will go away and then election day and the big question is how big is that election day vote going to be . Either, there are republicans voting early, in person early so theres a we will have a high turnout election and obviously less election day vote than we typically have in most states. Professor mcdonald, thank you. Appreciate it. Great to be with you. Checking in on twitter and facebook. What do we have . From the world of twitter, i believe the polls are tigtdening but i think early voting hurt trump bigley. You just heard from professor mcdonald who tracks all of this stuff. I yield to his expertise. To me instinctively i like sport analogies. It is like the Fourth Quarter in the basketball game is starting and trumps coming off the bench with a big deficit. He will have to run the table it would seem to make up for the discrepancies we saw in terms of how Many Democrats and republicans have already voted. Notwithstanding that many split tickets and so forth. I get it. Answer the survey question at smerconish. Com this hour. When will america learn the results of the president ial vote . Still to come, even if democrats do win the white house and the senate, Ron Brownstein warns the gop gerrymandering many that could be implemented and will explain. Water . Why . ahhhh incoming ahhhahh im saved water tastes like, water. So we fixed it. Mio. Wand sweetie cane, coloryou just be. Gentle with the pens. Okey. Okey. I know. Gentle. Gentle new projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed. Com home. If democrats do win this election decisively, will they have power to neutralize republicans . Not necessarily says my next guest. Why the 2020s could be as dangerous as the 1850s. Ronald brownstein is cnn senior political analyst whos also a soon your eds or the at the atlantic. How long can paducah tell seattle what to do . Explain, ron. Look. I think the first of all, good morning, michael. The dividing line in american politics over last 15 years or so especially under donald trump is between the people and places comfortable with the way america is changing, evolving, culturally and economically and those who are most fearful. And uneasy about the way america is changing. And that this is the clear dividing line and in 2016 we saw trump mobilize the parts of america that were most uneasy about the way that the country is changing. The way i summarize as paducah and achieved a victory over the parts of america that are immersed in the way that the country is changing, seattle. This is a very different election and see emerging america in historic numbers to reclaim the direction of the country. In 2016 donald trump lost 87 o. 100 largest counties in america and hell lose over 90 of the 100 largest counties in america this time and by maybe 18 million or 19 million votes and economically in 2016 even while winning 2,600 of the 3,100 counties its one third of the gop. In this election theres serious estimates of the counties likely to lose trump wins terrain for 30 of the nations total economic output so while its possible and cant rule out to mobilize nonmetro, nonurban america, the parts least touched by by diversity the overwhelming signal is to exile the Republican Party from the dynamic and growing places that are shaping america in the 21st century. Ron, youre going to bum out some democrats who were hopeful, anticipating a victory of not only the white house but maintaining control of the congress and winning the senate and in this atlantic piece you say be careful what you wish for, you are not going to get the policy changes you hope for because theres institutional factors at play. What are they . Another way of saying it is they have to confront the institutional factors. We have structural issues where it benefits the states that are the least touched by the america is changing and more and more republican, small interior states with large rural populations and then the filibuster in the senate that mag magnifies the one third of the country can sustain a filibuster and behind that a 63 republican majority on the Supreme Court that on virtually every issue from climate to racial ek the i to gay rights is going to find itself crosswise with the preferences of the millennials and generationz rising to become the largest population in the electorate. This year it ends a 40year span in which baby boomers have been the largest generation of eligible voters. Now millennials and generationz equal them and theyll exceed them by 2024 but in all of these structural ways kind of a minority has a tremendous opportunity to frustrate what i think is emerging as a National Majority if he wins the popular vote, 7 out of 8 for democrats, no party has ever done and democrats have to confront in all likelihood in the 2020s all of these structural barriers if theyre going to implement their agenda. Here is the takeaway statistic. I encourage everyone to read always what ron writes. You point out states with as little of the 11 population can must muster the 41 votes to maintain a filibuster. Look. In the 1850s Republican Party was emerging as a majority of country as the voice of the north 70 of the population. The south was a receding majority and blocked the agenda. 7 of the 9 Supreme Court justices that divided dred scott in 1857 basically banning the platform of the Republican Party appointed by earlier proslavery democratic president s and could see the same conflict in the 2020s as this demographically swelling majority faces the obstacles that have been laid down by the other side and that i think is going to present a real challenge. Also, if you have a political system in which the Democratic Party or embracing all of the diversity of the country and republicans are receding in a way that is only representing the portions that of White America most uneasy about the changes thats an explosive mix and both sides have an incentive to avoid that outcome. A good thought piece from ron again. Thank you, ron. Thanks, michael. Happy election day still to come, more of your best and worst tweets v. You voted . When will we know the Election Results . Go vote right now. 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Because the size of your wallet shouldnt determine whether or not youre in jail. Vote yes on prop 25 to end money bail. Vote yes on prop 25 hey while the guys arentcatch listening. We need your help. Your platforms are toxic to women who lead. We are targeted with ugly and violent language, with threats of sexual assault, coordinated bots attack women for political gain. We have asked facebook to do better, our freedom, our democracy is at risk. We are fighting back, and were asking you to join us. Weve got your back, do you have ours . You know, lean in. Responded to this weeks survey question. When will america know the results of the president ial election . Survey says interesting, a plurality, 44 say it will be within three days. 26 day more than three days. 21 Election Night. 9 the scotus will have to decide. 22,000. Thank you for casting ballots. That was really interesting. Only 21 think then. Almost everywhere i see there are sickening trump signs. Ive got a bad feeling that the polls could be off. Sickening trump signs. I guess that tells us exactly what you are thinking. Listen, we had a great conversation about all of the data thats out there and i am a total junkie reading all of it. Im going to sound cliche but it happens to make since in this instance. Theres only one survey that matters. It is the one that is under way right now and will wrap up on tuesday. And remember this, if you dont know the result on tuesday night, its not indicative of something having gone awry. Its just how many people are casting ballots through different means than they normally do. So go vote. See ya. Its either the assurance of a 165point certification process. Or it isnt. Its either testing an array of advanced safety systems. Or it isnt. Its either the peace of mind of a standard unlimited mileage warranty. Or it isnt. For those who never settle, its either mercedesbenz certified preowned. Or it isnt. The mercedesbenz certified preowned sales event. Now through november 2nd. Shop online and build your deal today. Thank you so much for joining me. It is the final stretch in the fight for the white house. President donald trump and former Vice President joe biden taking nothing for granted. The candidates, their running mates and teams crisscrossing battleground states with just three days left until america decides. In this last weekend before election day, trump making four stops in pennsylvania, where he narrowly won in 2016, while biden teams up with former president barack obama in the swing state of michigan. Both states among those experiencing an upsurge in covid cases in octob