for mitt romney the expectations couldn't be higher. he's declared new hampshire front-runner and nationally as well. his business record has been turned into a target. there's intense pressure on the former massachusetts governor to post a big win. >> if we're able to win tonight, it'll be historic. it'll be the first time anyone who is not an incumbent in our party whose won iowa and new hampshire. i have my fingers crossed. it could be a big night for us. >> candy crowley is at the romney headquarters tonight. how are they handling the expectations game and how big of a windows governor romney need? >> reporter: listen, you heard him. it's just a win would be great, historic, we'll be the first people to do this. you've seen these polls. they had one at one point, it was a couple weeks back showing him in the 40% range. they don't expect that. they do expect something in the 30s. but as we like to say all the time. a win is a win is a win. and he looks and feels as though he's going to have a pretty good night tonight. how do we know that? i can tell you right now just some sort of secret sleuthing we've been doing, they have confetti cannons. they're expect to go have something big to celebrate. >> confetti cannons. is there a sense of surprise, candy? newt gingrich told me romney should be at 50%. everyone will have fun with the expectations for governor romney s. there a sense of surprise as they prepare to celebrate that their rivalries waited so long to get so sharp in their criticism? >> you know, it's interesting because in some ways it seems they were taken by surprise because he hasn't been that great at the push back, but in other ways they had to know it was going to come. if you look at it and the way they look at it is if you want to have something -- if something's going to come out. we knew where the democrats were going with this because they had already started. you want to deal with it in january and draw the sting so that in september if he becomes the nominee, people have heard this over and over again. it doesn't have the kind of impact that it's having now. they don't believe it's going to hurt him here in new hampshire. we'll have to see what goes into those mailers in south carolina, what goes up on the air in south carolina. but they don't expect it's going to have a huge impact here in new hampshire. they think all in all better to do this in january than to do this in the fall. >> candy crowley at the headquarters where they expect the biggest celebration. we'll see you all throughout the night. jon huntsman has staked a big finish in new hampshire. there is some evidence of a huntsman surge. the former utah governor hopes a flood of votes will help him deliver a surprise finish. jim acosta is with the huntsman campaign. let's be honest. they want to beat governor romney on his home turf. now they don't expect that to happen. can they stay in the race if there's anything short of a strong second? >> i don't think so. it is new hampshire or bust for jon huntsman. he has bet big on this state. while other candidates were in iowa efgs campaigning from manchester to the white mountains. i had a chance to speak with him earlier about this state's history of big political surprises. he told me that's exactly what he's hoping for tonight. >> we have always thought that new hampshire was a place to come, where you can upend conventional wisdom and i think tonight conventional wisdom is going to be upended again. >> reporter: is this do or die for you? >> we have too do well. we have worked this market harder than anybody else. 170 events. we have given it our heart and soul. we have done everything humanly possible. >> reporter: now the new hampshire secretary of state has said that they expect a big record turnout for tonight's primary results, and eye lot of that could be independents and moderates. if that's the case, if you have a strong surge of independents and non-affiliated voters, that could play right into jon huntsman's hands, john. >> if they get that boost above expectations as he likes to say finish, are they ready? do they have a financial plan in place to go on to south carolina and beyond? >> reporter: john, i asked a huntsman aid about that. if they do well tonight, if they have a great night, the plan is to go on to south carolina and, yes, they believe they have the resources to compete as this campaign goes on, john. >> critical night. jim acosta standing at the jon huntsman headquarters. we'll check in with jim. this primary day finds ron paul as always marching to the beat of his own drum. congressman paul came to the front-runner's defense today criticizing the other republican candidates who are now attacking romney's record and comments about business. >> if the other candidates that are criticizing mitt are serious, then they don't have the vaguest idea about the market because all he's talking about the market. if they do have an understanding of the market and know they're wrong, they're politically demagoguing this to get a political point. >> dana bash is covering the paul campaign. dana, help me out with the logic on this one. come to the defense of the guy in front of you, why? >> reporter: for several reasons. number one, let's just face it. ron paul is anything but a typical candidate. let's take that aside. he is obviously going for number two here. that is what he thinks is critical. also when it comes to his ideas and the kind of thing that he wants to put out there, it is that he's an authentic candidate. is he a consistent candidate. so authenticity and consistency for someone like ron paul is saying i'm somebody for the free markets. it gives him the ability to say i'm not a typical politician. what's going on with all these other republican candidates attacking mitt romney, it's classic politics and i'm above it all. that's what this allows him to do. >> as you're there at the headquarters tonight, they had a strong showing in iowa. that helped them stay in the race. how does the paul campaign define a win tonight? they don't expect to win the state, but how do they define a win in terms of their showing? >> reporter: the way they define a win is by a strong second or maybe a third. you heard ron paul try to lower those expectations as the day went on today. maybe third is okay. but they really do hope to get in the double digits, maybe even 20% in order to keep going. what is keeping going mean? it means being able to raise more money and to be able to get the ability to compete in the states that we're seeing next, south carolina and for the paul campaign perhaps skipping florida and going on to some of the caucus states to rack up as many of the delegates as he possibly can to keep what he calls his movement going. obviously he says he wants to be the nominee but that for ron paul is not really the ultimate. the ultimate is also keeping this idea going that he wants to change the republican party to get the idea of anti-government libertarian views back in, maybe even a platform, and tampa at the republican convention, we'll see. >> without a doubt an impact player in this race. we'll see what new hampshire does tonight. rick santorum is counting on a win. senator santorum was on the radio a short time ago trying to broaden his support beyond social conservatives. >> we bring a lot of folks who would like to support conservatives but have that little bit of doubt whether, you know, we really are for everybody. and so i think we can open up that door which will be a big transformation in this country. >> and we aren't expecting much support for the texas governor rick perry tonight. he ignored new hampshire this week to focus on south carolina. today he served notice that mitt romney and his tenure at b bain capital will be a flash point. >> i would suggest they're just vultures. they're vultures sitting out there on the tree limb waiting for the company to get sick and then they swoop in. they eat the carcass. they leave with that and they leave the scuttle. >> vultures. tough talk there from governor perry. like governor perry, newt gingrich is suggesting mitt romney's record shows greed. he joins us to look beyond new hampshire. >> we're going to go all out to win in south carolina. we think that's a key state for us, and we think that the contrast between a georgia reagan conservative and a massachusetts moderate is pretty dramatic. >> also ahead, new hampshire's voters sound off. soledad o'brien joins us from a key manchester polling station. when i grow up, i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. 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[ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. . less than an hour now until most polling stations begin to close across new hampshire. newt gingrich needs a strong finish before moving onto the campaign in south carolina where help will be waiting. an independent group backing gingrich will be spending millions of dollars on attack ads kritd sizing mitt romney's record. mr. speaker, south carolina in a moment. let's talk about expectations for tonight. can you make the case, as you do now, that governor romney is a weak frer and would be a weak nominee? is your credibility to make that case weekend new come in at the back of the pack tonight, potentially behind rick santorum, perhaps behind jon huntsman. >> you'll end up with ron paul in second, huntsman and i bunched in a group is my guess. huntsman has spent all of his time here. this is the only place he's campaigned intentionally. the key question for romney who has bought a house here, lived here for years, campaigned here, was government nor next door, ran for the u.s. senate next door, if he can't break 50% in a state that is i think his third best state after utah and massachusetts, it's going to be interesting to see how he makes the case that he is the presumptive front-runner. yes, he has more votes but at no point so far has he come anywhere to having closely convinced a majority of republicans despite spending five years, in the case of iowa $20 million and he got 25% of the votes. he got 66 more votes this year than he got in 2008 after spending another $10 million. so we'll see tonight. my hunch is he'll come in about where paul tsongas did when everybody thought he lost the election at about 37%. if that's the case governor romney has a hard case to make that we should find him electable. he's campaigned the longest. i think as we go south in south carolina we're going to have a very different set of arguments and i think he will have a fairly hard time defending his record when we get to south carolina. >> we'll let the expectations. i love the way you try to raise the bar to 50% in the state of new hampshire. that's what makes it fun, mr. speaker. ultimately to be the nominee you have to start winning. is sk svg a must-win state for newt gingrich. >> i think it is. we're going to go all out to win in south carolina. we think that's a key state for us. we think that the contrast between a georgia reagan conservative and a massachusetts moderate is pretty dramatic. i fought for tax cuts. he raised taxes dramatically. in fact, romney taxes.com we've outlined all of his tax increases. i'm for the second amendment rights. he was for massachusetts gun control laws and he raised the tax on owning a begun by 400%. i am right to life. he put planned parenthood in romney care. he has state funded abortions in romney care. he did a number of steps that were remarkable in favor of abortion for a guy who claimed he had converted. so i think when you get to a record versus record in south carolina, he's going o have a very hard time defending his record as governor. >> stay with us. much more of our conversation with newt gingrich ahead. he insists he's not attacking capital limp when he raises questions about mitt romney's business record. with the polls about to close, new data from our exit polls. erin burnett looks at when our voters made up their mind and the most important factor in their big decision. 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[ woman announcing ] new beneful healthy fiesta. on my journey across america, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. welcome back to cnn elections. about 30 minutes away now from the closing of most polls in the state of new hampshire. in the half hour ahead we'll go live there. wolf blitzer will join me. we'll go live to key polling precincts. not just who they're picking but why. much more of the fascinating exit poll data. and among the candidates fighting for survival, newt gingrich is catching lots of flak for criticizing mitt romney's business record. today, just today, ron paul called it a big mistake. in our interview just a short time ago the former speaker explained why he's refusing to back off. >> this is contrast politics, what you're doing right now. i don't call it negative politics. do you regret not doing it sooner? >> well, i might have done it in retrospect in iowa and i suspect had i done that in iowa, mitt romney would have come in even weaker than he was. i was, as i said to all of you at the time, i was running a real experiment. had gotten to be the front-runner nationally by being totally positive. i really liked the campaign when it was totally positive. i loved talking about ideas, visions, solutions. i was startled by the size and the ferocity and in some cases the dishonesty of the attack ads. when you have 45% of all the ads run in iowa were attacks on me, it makes you feel like you must have done something to get their attention about the at another level you'd just as soon not have quite that much attention. it took us a couple weeks to adjust. it's clear the only way to compete with romney since he is going to run a negative and expensive campaign, the only way to compete with him is to be very direct about contrast, to draw both of our records and to consistently come back to how different we are and how much more moderate he is than virtually any part of the republican party in this country. >> you have taken very aggressive aim, very aggressive sharp contrast in his records. i want you to listen to your words. it sounds like you're trying to say here is a guy he had virtue from the business community. listen to this, you seem to say he's greedy and heartless. >> those of us who believe in free markets and those of us who believe in fact the whole goal of investment is entrepreneurship and job creation would find it pretty hard to justify rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company leaving behind 1700 families without a job. >> this is a character re you're raising. >> john, you put your finger on it exactly. this is not about capital limp. this is a toetdly phony defense that says to raise any question about romney's business career is an attack on capital limp. that is just plain baloney. more of the romney baloney approachment the fact is he's been going around saying his 25 years in business are the major part of why he should be in business. fine, let's look at that. what was his approach? it is a question of judgment, of values, and of character. we know of one case for sure where they put in 30 million, they took out 180 million, six times as much, and the company went broke. now what was the judgment and the character? what were the values applied that took that much money out of a company as it went broke and all of its employees lost their jobs? i think that is a legitimate question to ask somebody who wants to be president of the united states. it's not about capital limp in general. it's not even about venture capital limp or entrepreneurial capital limp. it's about mitt romney and his record. he's the one that said this is the key part of understanding him. fine. we began looking at him t. turns out immediately they didn't defend it. they threw up a smoke screen saying you're not allowed to ask any questions or you're against capital limp. that's nonsense. in terms of job creation, i helped ronald regan with job creation in the '80s. when i was speaker there were 11 million new jobs created. mitt romney raised taxes. massachusetts ranked 47th in job creation because his tax increases killed jobs, it didn't create them. >> does it say anything about the consistency of your campaign in the sense that i know you've decided to shift a little bit. you told us this in mid december, you had raced questions about bain. there was a brief moment where he frankly got under my skin. i responded in a way that made no sense; doesn't fit my values, made some references to bain where i've said publicly he's a good businessman and manager. which newt gingrich should we believe? >> you should believe the newt gingrich who since then has read the more detailed reports in places like "the wall street journal" which laid out chapter and verse of what i'm describing to you. again, it's not every case. there were companies that bain did fine with. they behaved apparently fine with some of them. there are very specific cases and i believe within a week he has to have a press conference and he has to walk through and explain the cases. how do you take out $180 million and then have the company go bankrupt? there's something that's just not right for that. i'm all for people becoming successful. steve johns bs invented real products. he got to be a billionaire. sam walton developed a better way to do retail, he became a billionaire. that's terrific. they're providing a real service. they're not manipulating finances. they're creating jobs engaged in exactly the kind of competitive behavior we want. this is a question of governor romney's character. it's not capital limp that's on trial, it's the question about governor romney and trying to hide behind yelling you're not allowed to ask any questions or you're anti-capitalist. that's a pretty thin screen. >> when the pro-romney pac was dumping on you, you said he should have the courage to stand up and own those ads. now a political action committee run by a former top aid to you, sir, speaker gingrich, and getting money from top friends of yours, including a $5 million check from one of your long-time associates is running those same kinds of ads against governor romney. is it fair to say using your own language that you own them? >> well, i think i've got to have some responsibility. i haven't seen them yet. i hope they're going to be very accurate. i hope they'll deal with the facts. i hope that they're clear about what the facts are. i think that's a key part of this. we went through three weeks. you saw it. we went through three weeks where every single week i said this would be a better campaign without these ads. ironically in the sunday morning debate governor romney first said he had never seen any of the ads and then he quoted one of them listing all five parts of the ad. i thought it was kind of strange, either the first half of his paragraph was right or the second half. he shouldn't have had both of them in the same paragraph. >> if you're calling on governor romney, you say he might have to have a press conference in your view to lay out the record at bain capital. we're all for transparency. your freddie mac contract has been an issue. there was a question whether you could release t. freddie mac says it's up to you, release it, but your attorney says no. why not lay it out? >> no, my attorneys have said we're talking with the center for health transformation which i no longer own to get their permission to do it. i don't own it anymore. they have it. i'm perfectly happy to find a way to do it. i think they want to make sure it doesn't risk confidentiality for any of their other clients. my advice would be that it's okay. >> let me circle back and close where we began. the expectations tonight. newt gingrich will finish where? >> i think i'll finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. late this evening we will go to rock hill, south carolina, and tomorrow morning we are going to kick off the campaign on jobs and economic growth in south carolina. >> we'll watch the votes come in tonight. mr. speaker, we'll see you soon in south carolina. thank you for your time. >> thank you. take care. >> speaker gingrich looking ahead to south carolina. why he's not expected to do so well in new hampshire. it's 25 minutes until we start counting the votes. it is a fascinating state. as we gear up in the cnn election center, i'm joined by wolf blitzer. 26 minutes we start counting the votes, how many independents showed up, a lot of ground to cover. >> we're hearing already potentially john a record republican turnout in a primary perhaps a quarter of a million voters in this republican contest. in fact, i'm going to go over to soledad o'brien. she's at one polling place in nashua. soledad, what are the staffers over there saying about turnout? >> reporter: yeah, you know it's hard to tell at this point because they've been open since 6:00 in the morning and they won't close until 8 clock. we stay open here later than anybody else. here at the amherst elementary school, you can see obviously they're doing things in the gym basically. the system will work like this. the 4800 registered voters that they have, they'll come, line up. they'll get one of these ballots. so far it's under 1700 people have taken the opportunity to vote. we're not seeing a big rush as you are reporting in other places to get the ballots. 30 people on this ballot. what they have to do is go over here into one of these booths behind the curtain, fill it out. it takes 30 seconds. then they'll go over to this black machine over there. looks like a photocopier. there's a guy in the black jacket there. it's a tabulator. they will feed this form into the tabulator and all those forms will be calculated obviously along with the absentee ballots as well. at 8:00 they'll be able to tell us what the results are. they're thinking 8:15 we'll have the results from this area. with fewer than 1700 people there are 4800 registered voters. it is hard to get a sense that there's a major turnout, at least at this point. >> quickly, soledad. i know you're speaking with a lot of those voters. what are they saying? >> reporter: a lot of what we've been hearing forethe entire week, which is, wow, i've got three minutes until i have to vote and i still don't know exactly who i want to vote for. we talked to a guy named kevin gauge who told me that he knew who he wanted to vote for but that's because he was voting strategically. he was thinking toward the november contest. here's what he said. >> i think we have to have somebody on the republican side who's going to be able to raise as much money as possible. i don't think anybody is going to raise as much as they project the president is going to raise. i think the person with the biggest ability to do that and stay in line with the president is going to be strong. >> reporter: people have been coming in at roughly 115 per hour, which they say is kind of normal. and they are unclear if that's going to grow over the next hour. we have a fair amount of time. >> we'll stay in close touch with you, soledad. i want to go over to manchester. manchester city hall. shannon travis is standing by. shannon, we'll get an exclusive behind the scenes process. walk us through what's going on. >> reporter: that's right. you're only going to see it on cnn. think of it like this, wolf. think of it with this question. what happens to your ballot after you cast it? you walk in, fill out the form, whatever, write in, what have you, then you walk away and wait for the results? there's a very long and specific process that happens after that to count them, collect them, and protect them. ultimately because thee are paper ballots to destroy them. you're going to see on cnn tonight an unprecedented display of what happens to the ballots as they go from here, we're here in ward 1 in manchester as you mentioned, to city hall and what happens from then. it's going to be fascinating, wolf. >> shannon, we'll stay in close touch with you as well. let's hope there are no snafus with this count. you know what happens when there are snafus. >> yes, i do. that means we're up all night. >> important to touch base there. we'll be doing that throughout the night. wolf will stay right here with us. the top of the hour fast approaching. that's when we start counting the votes. the first in the nation presidential primary. will mitt romney win and if he does as expected, how big of a margin does he need? will the republican race be a sprint or a marathon? might we lose a candidate? our experts and analysts are here and we'll map out the key voting places in new hampshire. don't go anywhere. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. at liberty mutual, we know how much you count on your car, and how much the people in your life count on you. that's why we offer accident forgiveness, where your price won't increase due to your first accident. we also offer a hassle-free lifetime repair guarantee, where the repairs made on your car are guaranteed for life, or they're on us. these are just two of the valuable features you can expect from liberty mutual. plus, when you insure both your home and car with us, it could save you time and money. at liberty mutual, we help you move on with your life, so get the insurance responsible drivers like you deserve. call us at... or visit your local liberty mutual office, where an agent can help you find the policy that's right for you. liberty mutual insurance, responsibility -- what's your policy? we're here in the cnn election center. we're counting down to the final minutes until most of new hampshire's polls close. already we're analyzing data from today's exit polls. the stakes tonight are huge. mitt romney says he's hoping for an historic night. over the next few hours we're going to see which of his owe poeb nen opponents will hang on to fight another day. >> new hampshire will tell us whether it will be a sprint or a marathon. our team is right here. they'll be here all night. how long, we don't know quite yet. cnn election center. dana lash, she's the host of the dana show. the conservative alternative. james is with us and rou land martin. never mind about tonight. tonight will tell us a lot, give us a good clue about how long the republican race will go on. we assume romney is going to win tonight. is the conservative part of the party, of which you are a loud member that doesn't like him f he's too open, is he 2-0? are they ready to tell one of the other conservatives to get out? >> i think we're seeing from the gallup poll that con vaer tifs are ready to rally around mitt romney. they're exhausted with campaign season now. it is close. >> campaign season just started. >> we've been going through this for a year now. the fundraising has been going on for a year, the talking. they were exhausted before iowa. they're ready to move on. >> if the patriots move on i'll be exhausted with the nfl playoffs. >> your show is the conservative alternative. i was joking during the break. where have you been all of this time. you're the conservative to mitt romney. normally south carolina, yes, it's a conservative state. it has proven it's a quote, unquote, pragmatic state. it says we have a clear front-runner. let's anoint him so the bleeding stops? will that happen? >> democrats fall in line and republicans fall in line. to what intensity, that's something we'll see not just in new hampshire but south carolina and florida. i do believe that we will see if there's going to be one, a non-romney candidate emerge from south carolina. we're getting real close. >> let's worry about tonight. i have a lot of these gray hairs. you have already lost yours. i'd like to blame new hampshire on losing your hair. this is where bill clinton was the comb back kid. a lot of people think bill clinton won new hampshire. no. he came back from the dead to surprise in new hampshire. the state does have a history of surprising us. ask barack obama four years ago when hillary clinton roird back. could we see a surprise tonight or is romney in cement? >> we could, but i doubt that we will. to a larger point, i was talking to somebody that's been around for a long time. romney has this sewed up. she said, james, be careful. always somebody gets put through the paces. the voters say excuse me, we want to weigh in on this. probably if the poll that we saw coming into today were accurate, he probably won't get tested in new hampshire. new hampshire could surprise. maybe in south carolina they will. i don't know, but i've got a lot of respect for her judgment and what she said tended to ring true. we will see. i think the numbers that eric and i were talking about. the closer he gets the party, the better off he is. >> this is the most generous electorate for a jon huntsman candidacy. his record, he could have run as a pretty conservative republican. he's run as the tolerant, more moderate republican. where's the line for him? he had hoped romney would stumble in iowa. then he would beat him on his home turf like mccain did. romney won iowa, eight votes. winning ugly is winning. where does huntsman have to place? >> last night like lsu. go across. >> he's not going to cross it. here's what you have. the conventional wisdom said mitt romney was not going to do well in iowa because the social conservatives in iowa simply could not accept mitt romney. he's a mormon. that's what the conventional wisdom does. what did jon huntsman do? i'm going to avoid the state. what happens? romney wins the state by a vote. all of a sudden huntsman is sitting there saying i'm going to make new hampshire my main stand. like rudy giuliani in 2008. you're seeing that he has some cross fire. every debate he's tried to be cute and funny, it's fallen flat. i think from day one he simply never connected with an electorate. you're seeing right now the result of that. i think after tonight if he doesn't come in second with a great showing, dude, it's over. >> voters don't like it if you try to pick your state. for those of you at home who don't follow the subplots of the cnn team, mr. carville is a huge lsu fan. >> can i respond? can i respond? >> i had to bring it up. >> can i respond? you know what, if texas a&m football players couldun it half as fast as texas alumna can run their mouth. >> they can't cross the field. it's okay. >> run your mouth. >> quick question for the conservatives at the table. assume romney wins and you go into south carolina, will there be pressure from the grassroots organization if you've got a perry, santorum, gingrich, probably huntsman running down -- will there be pressure on one or two to get out, give somebody a clean shot? >> i think absolutely. you're going to see conservatives meeting all weekend after new hampshire trying to figure out what to do, see if they can get someone out of the race. we're used to the conventional wisdom, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, boom. this year most of them won't be in until -- most of the delegates until after super tuesday. >> do we have a delegate race or momentum race? that could depend. you can call romney weak all you want. you have to beat him to prove it. >> that's it. exactly. he'll get the delegates from those states. one of the things you mentioned, grassroots. erick mentioned they'll be meeting. cnn will make an endorsement, south carolina, we'll see where grassroots goes. i'm going to need a therapist. >> jim, eagle. >> rick perry ego is involved. these folks, they're getting warmed up. they'll be here all night. >> minute by minute the first wave of poll closings in new hampshire. when i'm back we'll map out the places, what mitt romney needs to do especially well. the little quirks about the great state of new hampshire. ♪ [ male announcer ] entune mobile technology. ♪ stronger! ♪ stand a little taller [ male announcer ] stay seamlessly connected to your smart phone. available on the reinvented 2012 camry. from toyota. ♪ [ male announcer ] why do we grow quaker oats? 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[ male announcer ] stop the uh-oh fast with kaopectate. most of new hampshire's polling places just minutes away from closing. wolf blitzer joins me at the magic wall and wolf, one of the questions, will new hampshire do what iowa did? knock at least one candidate from the race. michele bachmann not on this board. let's go back to the 2008 race. the dark red is romney back then. this is the southern part of the state down here. lot of people who moved up from massachusetts to escape the tax climate perhaps. this is an important part down here. a lot of independents. up in the top part of the state, you see orange. that was mike huckabee four years ago. smaller, rural communities. can rick santorum do well in here as he did in iowa? out here, i'm going to switch colors. this is a heavily democratic areas of the state, but dartmouth is out there, the college campus. ron paul, look for his support here, but one thing, the as we look at the entire state, about 40% of the voters in new hampshire are undeclared. independent. they can play tonight. will they go for jon huntsman? mitt romney? ron paul. they expect record turnout. if you add up 2008, there were about 240,000 republican votes. in 2012, they expect that to cross 250,000. can mitt romney keep his loyal support in a state he had wire ed and when it comes to the expectation games, everyone says romney must do better than the 32% he had four years ago and just about all republicans say he better match the 37%, come close to 40%. why don't we walk over and talk to two of our political analyst. gloria, the threshold for romney tonight is what? >> well, let's just say he has to win in the 30s, i think, and he's got to win in the good double digits. by that, i don't mean some in his campaign say 10%, they wouldn't love it, but would take it. i don't think they'd be happy with that. i think 15% or above. then you have to see who comes in second, third. and this being new hampshire, we even have to worry about who comes in fourth because there could be a fight between santorum and gingrich. >> let's stick with romney. if you've been at 40 in some of the polls and 36, 37 in the final days, if the argument of your other rivals are your week, this is his best state. if he's not up close to that 40 -- >> he's got the home field advantage and has had it for a couple of years. he's been around this state forever. if he gets under 30 or 32, hoos hurt. if he gets in the mid 30s, he's fine, he get as major victory and is in a commanding position going ahead. if he's in the 40s, i think he crushes and that would be -- then you might see people drop out. >> the entire basis of the huntsman strategy was that iowa would weaken romney and he would exploit an opening in new hampshire. can jon huntsman can't in this race unless he wows us tochbt tonight? >> he has to come in a strong second. if he comes in third, he's in trouble, especially in a state like south carolina. he does have money potentially out there. he come frs a very, very wealthy family and his dad who is a billionaire has a lot of friends. he's got to really do great to justify that kind of expense. it's interest iing, also, you lived in boston. "the boston globe," almost like a local newspaper in the southern part of new hampshire, they went ahead and endorsed huntsman an the new hampshire union leader endorsed gingrich. no one endorsed mitt romney, who is going to win tonight. >> my first job was delivering the "boston herald." it's an interesting point. so, perhaps huntsman, if he doesn't do well, it will be his farewell. what about gingrich? iowa knocked bachmann. will new hampshire knock someone else or will they continue to think, romney's weak, my opening will come eventually? >> i think part of the big news is how santorum has not caught on. >> he's not going to drop out. >> but he does not pose that kind of threat to romney. that we thought he might. and that means he goes on and gives gingrich a lot of incentive to go on. this money gingrich has just gotten for his super pack. i think they all go on to florida. >> here's the interesting thing about santorum and you know new hampshire really well. he's a social values candidate and that's not big. in new hampshire. that's what not what the votes are going to be about this evening, but he is the most pop list of all of the republican candidate. there is no true pop list in this field, but santorum can take that with him to south carolina and do very well with it there or at least split the vote up enough so romney can win. >> i think this conversation, this is a dream inside the romney campaign. while santorum seeing a a reason to go on longer, you get to south carolina where perry is waiting. he skipped new hampshire all together. the split, wolf, gives you a dynamic much like john mccain had. he won new hampshire with 30s. wasn't convincing, but he won and went to south carolina and had huckabee and fred thompson and he's the nominee. >> it's a trifecta. goes on and wins south carolina, it's going to be hard to stop mitt romney down the road. >> i agree, but i think something's happened in the last 48 hours, which has changed the race a little bit. that is opponents think they've drawn blood. they think there's a little blood in the water. they have. responded -- so they think after going after him and putting him under pressure like this is drawing blood, to that gives him -- >> awkward moment for those republican candidates. is that something you expect to hear from the democrat sns. >> four years ago, nearly half. 49% of the voters told us in the exit polls they made their decision in the last week. do you think that number will be that high tonight and b, b, if they did, will that be the first test of whether this bain capital stuff has hit? >> really interesting question. my sense is that those voters had to make up their minds. >> i think the ron paul voters made up their mind. >> i think it's too soon for the bain capital stuff to have a real impact in new hampshire, but i believe as it continues into south carolina, which it will, you'll see a huge split in the republican coalition between small business and bl