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Government resigns all mass. Has president putin pave the way to make russias ruler forever . We dig deep into the criminology. Iran less than two weeks ago to be at the brink of war. Whats happening in teheran . What then australia on fire. We have seen the heart wrenching pictures these past weeks as down under has been devastated. More than a billion animals are thought to be dead. Australias former Prime Minister explains the politics behind it all. He first, here is my take. President trumps trade deal with china is largely a win for beijing. Just measure the agreement signed this week against initial demands made by washington in a may 2018 document that beijing prompted leaked. With regard to the central u. S. Goals after almost two years of negotiations, tariffs and counter tariffs, mr. Trump has achief achieved none of these obje objectiv objectives. China is a one party state that can take a long view. Trump gambled he could hurt the chinese economy enough that the fame for American Consumers who actually paid for those tariffs would be worth it. He wanted to smooth the economic reco orders as he runs for reelection so he folded. This trade deal reflects something on the international landscape. Something the United States is going to grapple with for decade. As i argued in foreign affairs, china is the first real pure competitor that the United States has faced in the modern era. Even the soviet union was never really an economic peer. China is the worlds second largest economy. By some measures, it is the largest trading partner of most countries in asia and many around the globe. It holds the Worlds Largest Foreign Exchange results and it leads the globe in Many Industries including hightech sectors like 5g. More significantly, it is not part of the American Security system. You see washington has faced an extraordinary Benign International environment in one key respect. After world war ii, the country that emerged or reemerged or all to put it bluntly, american protectors, germany, france, japan and south korea, china is most decidedly not in that group. Add to this very different political system and cultural background and beyond, you have the making of a complex relationship thats perhaps destined for some degree of conflict. As trump fails to negotiate to demonstrate, this is not a case of bluster will always work. China too has leverage. The fault does not lie solely with trump. Democrats turned hawkish on china and protectionist in general. Had the democrats been in the white house, the outcome would not have been very different. The geopolitical threat of a rising china is understood. A comparison may help. Forget the soviet union and look at russia today as it tries to destroy the order since 1945. China has been trying to grow rich and powerful within that order. China is not a road nation like russia seeking to interfere in western democracy and invade its neighbors. As i noted in foreign affairs, china used to be a leading sponsor revolutionary and surgency a cross the planet. America is going to compete with china for the bulk of the 21st century. It will have to do so wisely in listing allies and trying to keep the competition within the international system. If we go down a path of confrontation and containment, china is powerful enough that this struggle would destroy the open International Order and the open to the economy, we would end up with government control on trade technology and travel and a seizeless struggle for allies and lower level of Economic Growth and a danger for a Nuclear Arms Race and even war. With china, the challenge is not how tough you can be but how small. Go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post this week. Lets get started. The world was bracing itself for a potential war between iran and the United States. That fear has lessen for now. The president of teheran for the first time, he said the u. S. Government has no crediblility and he went on calling iran acts of god. On the american side there were no casualties from those attacks. Cnn learned late in the week that 11 Service Members actually been injured. Where will this all go from here . Lets bring in the expert . Our regular on gps, ariana, let me start with you and ask you what do you make of these thats said and what is the atmosphere in iran right now. This is the first time he led press since the arab spring, people were rattling everywhere in the middle east. Whats going on in teheran right now. He led the fridays prayers and one he had comments to make, he makes them from different platform. He rarely leaves the prayer himself. He does that when there is Something Big going on and clearly this is something that the regime considers as a big field for him to comment. Nothing he said was surprising. I think the main thing to take away from this is the regime is is clearly seeing itself at a point where it does need to do some damage control, following the downing of the airliner when it was striking the two base in iraq and the Supreme Leader came out to make kmepcomments and pig up the pieces several weeks since he show up in corruption with the crack down on protesters and the downing of the airliner. What to make of this doolipi where you see millions of people out on the morning of soleimanis death. Some of it is heartfelt and you have protesters and you know i am struck by america where you have dooliifferent narratives. Protesters are the face of iran. Whats the real face of iran . Similar to the United States, iran is as deeply polarize society to millions of iranians. Soleimani was a war hero. To many millions of iranians, he symbolize the state where people are tired of living under. I think that the reaction to the downing of the Ukraine Airliner was significant because when people saw the iranians, a lot of highly educated Young Professionals and iran is also a young modern society, i think people could identify with the victims of the Ukraine Airline crash much more than they could with qassem soleimani. Ariane, this is all happening in the run up to parliamentary elections. What do you think happens . There is a sense that the hard liner are firmly in control. One thing thats interesting to watch is the number of people who has been disqualified so far just for some contact, this is not unusual again and the gua guardian council, they prefer candidates and sideline anyone who would not fall in line with the regime wholistically, you have a presentation from different spectrum within the political system, it has to be within the bound of the public and nothing outside of it. Whats interesting to watch is there is a concerted effort to disqualify of people currently sitting members of iranians. 90 people who have been disqualified so far. There may be more. This tells you something about where the regime is sees itself currently and how much it is concerned about the elections and how it fears the sort of polarization that karim was describing of iran. The people who are disqualified the kidney of rouhani faction of the iranian government, correct . Most of them have been disqualified because of financial issues. Theyre trying to frame it under this umbrella of anticorruption effort. That may not be the case, for the most part it is about politics and making sure that conservatives and hartline and other regimes are presented or rouhani which is more moderate. Karim, explain to us whats happening in terms of irans economy and the regimes to manage. The data seems pretty clear. The iranian economy because of the sanctions shrunk 10 last year. The regime does seem in control, whats going on . Well, i think the reality of iranian politics is the regime is highly organized and highly armed and ready to keep power and society is unorganized and unarmed and not ready to die to take power and so despite the fact that irans economy is in terrible shape and theyre hemorrhaging a lot of money. Iran is the most lonely country in the world. It is only reliable allies of the government. The most powerful actor of the Supreme Leader and the revolutionary guards remained committed in staying power. We know dictateshorshipdictatort the moment the short collapse isl islis i islamic public trump now says he wants a deal, there is no outline of what it would mean. Where does this go . I have a hard time seeing them negotiating but i have a hard time seeing them able to withstand this level of pressure. The supremes leader hope is sustain this pressure until november 2020 and hope a democrat is elected. I think that hes now the longest serving dictator in the middle east because of the sultans passing last week. Fascinating. Karim and ariane, thank you so much. Is putin setting himself up to rule russia 30 years or everyoeven more. He made political moves this week that had people talking. Well discuss when we come back. The thought of my symptoms returning was keeping me from being there for the people and things i love most. So, i talked to my doctor and learned humira can help get, and keep, uc under control when other medications havent worked well enough. And it helps people achieve control that lasts so you could experience few or no symptoms. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Be there for you, and them. Ask your gastroenterologist about humira. With humira, control is possible. And i like to question your im yoevery move. N law. Like this left turn. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. I do not speed. And thats saving me cash with drivewise. My son, he did say that you were the safe option. And thats the nicest thing you ever said to me. So get allstate. Stop bossing. Where good drivers save 40 for avoiding mayhem, like me. This is my sons favorite color, you should try it. [mayhem] you always drive like an old lady . [tina] youre an old lady. Dimitris on it. Eating right and getting those steps in . On it dimitri thinks hes doing all he can to manage his type 2 diabetes and heart disease, but is his treatment doing enough to lower his heart risk . [sfx glasses clanking. ] sorry. Maybe not. Jardiance can reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults who also have known heart disease. So it could help save your life from a heart attack or stroke. And it lowers a1c jardiance can cause serious side effects including dehydration, genital yeast or urinary tract infections, and sudden kidney problems. Ketoacidosis is a serious side effect that may be fatal. 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Joining me now, shes a staff writer at the atlantic and alexander, a senior fellow at the carnegie center. He joins us from the russian capit capitol. Anne, put this in perspective for us, it is a big and kind of precarious mystery. Russia seems to be the only country thats ruled in a way that nobody understands what the structure and succession is. If xi jinping would leave office, we would understand they would elect a new person. With russia, we have kind of only putin. We dont have a system so it is understandable that these speculations are important is what happens after putin . It is important to make three points and one of them reflects what you just said, all the best experts will start by saying we dont know what it means. He may be signaling people we dont know. There are few people who are close to putin now. He may have a plan he has not revealed yet. Everything you hear about this you have to start with that caveat. The second point is although there is a constitutional and governmental change, it is clearly that putin declared it. It is not a constitutional change of the kind you have in a democracy where there is a National Debate and voting and so on. This is putin saying i am changing the constitution right now. It is interesting that he wants to preserve some Democratic Forum and language. Hes telling us hes going to set aside whats next. The third point which you alluded to is that this looks to most people like putin doing planning for the future, if he created a new state body that he can be the head of after he leaves the presidency. He juggled around the powers within the system so he can go on and staying in control even after he leaves office. Hes included some rules and actually limits russian access to International Laws so he seems to be saying right the world can back off of russia. And hes also included a couple of rules that say the next president of russia cant be somebody who spent any time abroad and that seems to intended to eliminate some rivals. Hes planning ahead for the end of his current term which is in 2024. Yeah, much closer, close analyst of whats going on. How do you read this . It is a first shot and we should take a decade. Pew the putin is on his way out but he wants to remain in charge as long as hes active. He signals hell leave the office at 2024 and hell not come back to the kremlin as a president. Hell be in charge but hell not be in the throne but some where above the throne. The second point is the next president will not be another vladimir putin, thatll not be somebody that can carry on swap jobs with his Prime Minister or anybody else. There will be term limits from now on and two constitutional terms as a president for six years and thats about it. He could not pull the trick like he did back in 2008. I think that we should see that in a broader context of putin planning to architect his legacy. Hes both a authoritarian leader who cares about what happens to him or his family and friends. He also feels a sense of historic responsibility as a russian leader. He believes that he made russia great again and now is the time to set the clock moving into norm normalize power transition. One could read this. Putin wanted to rule as an absolute ruler, hes putting in place of a structure that has some checks and balances, parliament does seem to have some is this possibly a scenario where after putin, russia will become a bit more liberal and a bit more democratic . I think if you begin with the point you made to start out with namely that, there is no Succession Process in russia then you have to wonder whether if thats true. The fact the matter when putin is gone, we dont know what happens next. There is not a rule book. I would also say another explanation for these moves that putin is increasingly unpopular. He may need some scapegoats to explain to the russian people why the economy is not growing as fast as it was and why there is still a lot of discontends of infrastructures and on so. And now i have someone else, this may also be in attempt to kind of prolong his rule by placing the burden of government on someone else. The one sign that we may be pointing to something that is telling that the new Prime Minister, the bureaucrat has a very good reputation by being clean and efficient and tax collection and things like that. Do you read anything into that choice . That guy is going to be Prime Minister. I am not sure that hes that clean and already there are many investigations be done by one of the position leaders and we show some wrong doing. I dont think Many Russians could believe anybody at the top on the minister level is 100 clear. Thats probably impossible in the russian system. The choice is between very or more efficient bureaucrats by the Russian Standard or absolutely worthless or in efficient because they are lawyer to mr. Putin. Hes not part of mr. Putins circle. I think he sees as a leader and a Prime Minister who could be a better leader of the government. At the same time i would not say if thats a demotion. Hell be putins department in the house. Pew tens statement when he announ announced of the resignation and hell be given a new role, thats removing of an unpopular job to a new job thatll make his reputation some what better. Thats one of the opportunities but mr. Putin wants to deep many options open and he has the potential. Thank you both for trying to unravel what is famously called by russia. Next on gps, what can we learn from the last decade about what may happen in the next one. That story when we come back. If you masz shiss a show, go to cnn. Com fareed for a link to my podcast. Fiftysix straight, come on thats it, left trade right trade. Come on another trade, i want to see it more 80sstyle training montage . Yeah. Happens all the time. What do we wburger. Inner . I want a sugar cookie. Wait. I want a bucket of chicken. I want. Its the easiest because its the cheesiest. Kraft. For the win win. Your amy what work . Zing you need a website very soon youre gonna be very famous lady that is the last thing i would ever. Huh . Stop put those away wthats why xfinity hasu made taking your internetself. And tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Now for whwhat in the worl segment. What were the decades top trends and what we can get into the future. You have these amazing charts. If you look at the investment theme by decades. What you notice for the last decade is america. We started the financial growth and financial crisis but by the end of it we come out of it better than anyone else, i said we as in the United States. Yes, every decade in post war ii history. Economic and economic landscape h have dominated. Now you can see thats not much of an increase but given what most people thought what america is going to do in the turn of the decade. This is a surprising outcome. In financial terms what we have seen is just out of control. We have seen the americans stock market over the last decade go up multiple times comparing to any other stock market. You have a chart that shows it. China, for example, thats one thing people ask me why it was not chinas decade. So when it comes to stock market return or the use of the u. S. Dollars in the international system, the u. S. Completely dominates in a way that no other country does. The dominance of the u. S. Today is so complete that the u. S. Shares in the Global Stock Markets today is 56 . Part of the explanation is the extra which is technology. If you look at returns by industry, technology is by far the biggest. We think this is normal but this is not normal and for one sector we are so done. The last decade which is the 2000s, the exact happens. At the bottom of the chart, well use commodities. This is what the world taught as a felon of the decade, those are the sectors thats going to dominate the world. China needs more commodity. America dominates in the decade. Now what you are describing is the great income and inequality. When you look at the political effect of this, you have this great chart of the share of right wing and left wing populist parties and what you see is populists voting is going way up. Right. This is a dominant trend across the world and you see parties from the left and right. This is great financial balance that we have seen. The number of billions double this decades from a thousa1,000 2,000. Thats some what widen to me. This explains a lot of the trends in the world today from increase polarization to increase to do something of the fact thats so extreme. This could be something which we watch for the counter attack. So i want to close with this one very interesting chart you had, you took the six hard themes and what you did was ask yourself, how did that theme technology or japan, how do they do the next decade. Was one decade of a good predictor of how they did the next and what you found was the median performance of a heart trend was actually negative and the basic seems to be here nothing lasts forever. When something is very hard, the next decade is never. It almost gives up the entire performance that it has comparing to the rest of the world. This is my big concern here that yes, we had a great decade for america, this is americas decade, we may be at peak america. If you look at the coming decade, whats going to be hard is living different. Thats being the one lesson of post world war ii decade. Richard sharma, fascinating as always. Thank you. Next on gps, the devastating fire down under, what this politics had to do with it . Actually, quite a bit. I will talk to australias form t er Prime Minister when we come back. Ok everyone our mission is to provide complete, balanced nutrition. For strength and energy whoohoo greattasting ensure. With nine grams of protein and twentyseven vitamins and minerals. Ensure, for strength and energy. Apps except work. Rywhere. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com less than 20 days into the new year, the news about climate had been devastating. 2019 was the second hottest year on record. The ocean is warming at the rate of five hiroshima bombs dropping every second. We learn the tragedy down under. After an extremely hot dry spring, wildfires have burned now on every state in australia. The area that has burned larger than belgium and denmark put together. More than two dozens people have died as a result of the fires and more than 3,000 homes have been burned. An australian professor estimated more than 1 billion animals have died in the fire. Yes, billion with a b. That i want to bring in kevin rudd, the former Prime Minister of australia. Kevin, this is a sense of the under side of australias miracle, australia grown without a recession for what is it, 25 years, Something Like that, 28 years . At the heart of that it has been a fossil fuel extraction economy. The Energy Sector in australia has been important and natural gas as well. But, of course, there are other sectors of the economy and agriculture and Information Technology and tourism. The truth the matter is for the better part of a decade now, we had continued conservative government in australia which is around a gender Climate Change denial. Reenforced by their partners and crimes. The Climate Change debate is intensely polarizing in australia like it is in the United States and a few other countries. As a consequence it becomes very hard to a, truce measures which measurably reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions and b, transform our economy at a time and c, take out proper place as leading global Climate Change action in the council of the world rather than a conservative government doing which is under mining global consensus. Weeks before the fire began, explaining the left in australia had been taken by a cult of Climate Change and liking it to kind of religious. Is that kind of thing difficult now given the extent of the damage . Prime minister abbott and his Political Party, whars cats ca the liberal National Party coalition in australia is having looking at itself closely, giving a sheer magnitude on its fire. None of it have seen anything like this and the politics of fear around lets call it the cost of Climate Change actually has been well mobilized by the conservatives in australia just as being well mobilized by the United States. Explain the role of the murdoch of australia. We are more familiar with fox news and such. Well, the actual corporate of murdochs empire is australian. Murdoch owns 70 of the print media in australia. One Television Network as well and a big online presence. Therefore, for any Political Party to negotiate their future in australia like mine, which has been committed to Climate Change action in the last 15 years. It becomes whether heavy when everyday and every capitol city in australia, the equivalent of the New York Post or the london sun unleashes its broadside against you for daring to propose to increase Renewable Energy and decrease carbon use and improve energy efficiency. It is not just an assault in australia but has an effect on the global consensus on Climate Change. Murdochs power reflected in fox news in america. When you look at the politics in australia, what lesson do you draw for the United States which as you say have a similar and unusual for a rich country, large climate denial. The Climate Change would produce in south eastern and south western australia, deeper and more intense drought and coming earlier in the season. The northern tropical half of the country, well see wild weather events cyclone and alike and huge storms. All thats happening. Look at america, the m mediterranean that we had frankly in california. When you see these mass activivs in australia to our friends in california to say get ready for much more. Subtropical parts in florida, the reality and the impact of wild weather events and we see of hurricane activities in the United States in the recent years, more extreme and frequ t frequent. The economic cauost and the financial cost and health cost and inhaling smoke is a massive proportion. Bring up your local Insurance Company and ask what is the cost of premiums now for insurance against extreme weather event, droughts or floods or fire, going through the roof, why . Climate. Kevin rudd, thank you very much. Up in the casnext, how good predicting the future. Are you a super forecaster . We want to know what you think in 2020. Will donald trump be elected . Stay tuned. For 14. 99. Choose soup or salad. One of seven delicious entrees like new hawaiianstyle garlic shrimp. And, get a sweet dessert. Three courses. One amazing price. So come in today. Hey, our workers comp insurance is expiring. Should i just renew it . Yeah, sure. Hey there, pie insurance here to stop you from overpaying for workers comp. Try pie and save up to 30 . Its easy. Sweet get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie. Com. Your artwork is amazing my what work . You need a website very soon youre gonna be very famous lady that is the last thing i would ever. Huh . Stop put those away the ups and downs of frequent mood swings can plunge you into deep, depressive lows. crying take you to uncontrollable highs. muffled arguing or, make you feel both at once. Overwhelmed by bipolar i symptoms . Ask about vraylar. Some medications only treat the lows or the highs. Vraylar effectively treats depression, acute manic and mixed episodes of bipolar i. Fullspectrum relief of all symptoms. With just one pill, once a day. Elderly patients with dementiarelated psychosis have an increased risk of death or stroke. Call your doctor about unusual changes in behavior or suicidal thoughts. Antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. Report fever, stiff muscles, or confusion, which may mean a lifethreatening reaction, or uncontrollable muscle movements, may be permanent. Side effects may not appear for several weeks. Metabolic changes may occur. Movement dysfunction, restlessness, sleepiness, stomach issues are common side effects. When bipolar i overwhelms, vraylar helps smooth the ups and downs. A book that youre ready to share with the world . Get published now, call for your free publisher kit today the new year has started dark darken, what does the rest of 2020 have for us. Some turn to fortune tellers and intelligent analystanalysts, weo turn to everyday people. We interview the concept of super forecasters to forecast the future. The people we profile had their answer aggregated into prediction by a Company Called good judgment, which expanded into a platform. Two years ago, good judgment asks you our Fareed Zakaria audience to predict our global challenge. Nearly 6,000 of you weighed in on our forecast. Lets take a look at what you predicted. You accurately rest that ben salman would continue to be the crown prince. Another one, Justin Trudeau rema remaining the Prime Minister . They were concerned of a potential Corruption Scandal that erupted in february. His number fell from 85 to 50 over the next two months. Forecasters held that trudeau would remain as Prime Minister. A speculation would never dip. When the house authorize the impeachment, forecasters thought there is only an 18 chance that President Trump would be impeached. The numbers began to tick up as the house revealed testimonies, reaching 60 when nancy pelosi requested the articles of impeachment be drafted. I was wondering what the other 40 thinks. If you think you can do better for predicting the future for next year. Go to gjopen. Com far reid. Will there be a vacancy in the u. S. Court . Tell us what you think. Thats gjopen. Com fareed. Always tune in on teahese questions and more. What it takes to be a super forecaster, you can visit my website on cnn. Com fareed. Thank you all of you for being apart of my program this week, i will see you next week. Its the easiest because its the cheesiest. Kraft. For the win win. We do things differently and aother money managers, dont understand why. Because our way works great for us but not for your clients. Thats why were a fiduciary, obligated to put clients first. So, what do you provide . Cookie cutter portfolios . Nope. We tailor portfolios to our clients needs. But you do sell investments that earn you high commissions, right . We dont have those. So, whats in it for you . 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Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Ask your doctor about humira citratefree. The same humira you trust with less pain immediately following injection. And i like to question your im yoevery move. N law. Like this left turn. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. I do not speed. And thats saving me cash with drivewise. My son, he did say that you were the safe option. And thats the nicest thing you ever said to me. So get allstate. Stop bossing. Where good drivers save 40 for avoiding mayhem, like me. This is my sons favorite color, you should try it. [mayhem] you always drive like an old lady . [tina] youre an old lady. I am brian stelter, time for rh reliable sources. This hour we are talking about why this book is

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