The most tangible data suggesting that the United States is losing its good reputation comes from The Economist adam poser. He argues that countries are bypassing the United States and constructing a postamerican world economy. You can see this in the flurry of Trade Agreements that dont include the u. S. , from the transpacific partnership, which was signed minus america to the trade deal the European Union just signed with japan and many others that are in the works. The most dramatic indication of the world side stepping the u. S. , he says, is the decline in Foreign Investment in america. It has fallen off a cliff, he told me. Net Foreign Investment into the u. S. Has dropped by half since 2016. Perhaps some of the decline is part of a longer term trend. Other countries are growing faster than the u. S. But for decades, that reality has been countered by another reality. That among the worlds rich nations, america was unique in having strong Growth Prospects coupled with stable,
predictable, promarket policies. Trumps attacks on trade, allies, his willingness to punish and reward individual companies and general unreliability all add up to a picture of policymaking that looks like that of an erratic developing company run by a strong man. The difference is americas strong man has the power to disrupt the entire global economy. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. And now, lets get started. Is the war between the United States and iran actually possible . The leaders of the two enemy nations have been threatening each other since last weekend. It all began last sunday when irans president , Hassan Rouhani said the war between two nations would be the mother of all wars. President trump, of course, responded late that night with a tweet that said, in all caps, never, ever threaten the United States again, or you will suffer consequences the like of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. Irans Foreign Minister responded similarly, in all caps, color us unimpressed. And the leader of irans powerful force threatened thursday if trump began a war, it would be iran that ended it. Tough talk. Joining me now, robin wright, contributing writer at the new yorker and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson center, and trita parsi, and the author of losing an enemy, reuel marc gerecht, now senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. Robin, what do you make of the tweets and is this a new policy . Well, clearly, theres escalating tension between washington and tehran. What the administration believes the revolutionary government in iran is vulnerable and escalating the pressure economically, in terms of intelligence information campaign. Its gaming that the regime will be under such pressure it will have to go back to the Negotiating Table to talk, not just about the Nuclear Weapons program but also the wider array of issues we have with tehran, including human rights practices, its missile test, its meddling in the region, and the danger is that the iranians do not respond in a way that washington wants. The question becomes what else . Is this a repeat of the momentum that we felt in the runup to the war with iraq . The danger is that this is not north korea, this is not iraq. Iran is very sophisticated and has very Important Oil assets
and the other five members of the team negotiated with iran for this Historic Nuclear Deal have said theyre going to stick to it. That includes britain, germany, china, france and russia. Mike pompeo also made a speech and that seemed to outline and reemphasize what robin is saying. This is a new policy toward iran. We do have new policy, walking away from the jc the president and secretary pompeo have said they want to have new negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Certainly much of what theyre doing makes sense if you are adopting some type of Regime Change approach. Which you applaud . I do. I think its the correct way to
go, particularly at this time. I do believe that the Islamic Republic is internally weak and makes sense to deprive them of our currency. Trita, im guessing you disagree. I disagree with the idea that the United States is in a position and has the capacity to do a Regime Change in iran that would lead to a better government in iran, the iranian people certainly want to see democracy and are deeply frustrated with the current state of the country. But where is the last time, give me an example, of the United States doing a Regime Change in the middle east, that led to a proper democracy . I fear that the attempt at Regime Change i do agree with reuel, when you see everything thats happening, its not compatible with the strategy for diplomacy, but some form of attempt at Regime Change. It might be a worse scenario, Regime Collapse. They might not try to replates government, just collapse the current government and allow the
most striking about iraq, the democratic system in iraq, as flawed as it is, hasnt disappeared yet. The mistake there was that we pulled out. We should have stayed. For how long . We have to be patient. And, obviously, the americans have, i think, a short Attention Span for these things, and certainly in the middle east, which is very demanding. Do we really . Were still on the banks of iran, still in osaka and south korea, places where it makes sense because youre deterring an outside threat or anchoring the country. These are cases where youre trying to engage in a quasi colonial occupation, which is very difficult. Look into afghanistan. Is it better today than it was . I would argue that the intrusion of the United States into the Iraqi Government was less than probably what you had in germany after world war ii. You know, i would say that the more the United States is there,
the better. Robin, let me ask you, the point at which there seems to be some agreement is that what were headed for is a kind of Regime Change like strategy. Press iran, probably economically, but not the United States is not going to go into syria, yemen, lebanon to push back against iran. What you end up with is trita right, Regime Collapse and a very messy kind of situation . One of the things that everyone in washington is concerned about is what happens even if you get to the point that the regime is confronted, is vulnerable, does begin to either collapse or deteriorate . And there is no identifiable Opposition Group that has emerged that is popular at home. And so one of the questions is, who would replace the regime . This is a country that has 80 million people. It borders not just the middle east but south asia, central asia. It is one of the most geostrategic properties in the
world and has a good deal to say what happens on the strait of hormuz, through which a huge amount of the worlds exports flow. So those of us who live a long way away, it is important. Were still militarily stressed whether in afghanistan, iraq, south korea, germany, that we dont have the resources to rebuild a country like iraq, much less a place like syria, which will have to be reconstructed at some point. And the idea of Reconstructing Another War Zone is very daunting. So, whether its just the collapse of the regime because of its inefficiencies, the opposition within or some kind of military campaign, plan b, what happens next, is a very unclear and in some ways the most frightening aspect of this issue. When we come back, well ask, what is actually happening inside iran . Is the regime getting weaker or is all this pressure emboldening it . Saving you up to 30 so you can spend less time missing out. And more time paddling out tripadvisor. Visit tripadvisor. Com or download the app but our tempurpedic helps us make it all work. It gives us the best night sleep ever. I recommend my tempurpedic to everybody. The most highly recommended bed in america just got better. Introducing the allnew, reinvented tempurpedic. Designed with the most pressure relieving material weve ever created and superior cooltotouch technology. It adapts and responds to your bodys unique needs throughout the night. For your deepest, most rejuvenating sleep. Find your exclusive retailer today at tempurpedic. Com. At crowne plaza, we know Business Travel isnt just business. Theres this. A bit of this. Why not . Your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. Which is what we do. Crowne plaza. Were all business, mostly. Wells fargo has supported Community Organizations from the beginning, crowne plaza. Like united way, nonprofits like the american red cross, and our nations veterans. We knew helping our communities was important then. And we know its even more important today. So were stepping up to volunteer more and donate over a Million Dollars every day. So our communities can be even stronger. Its a new day at wells fargo. But its a lot like our first day. When it comes to strong bones, are you on the right path . We have postmenopausal osteoporosis and a high risk for fracture, so with our doctors we chose prolia® to help make our bones stronger. Only prolia® helps strengthen bones by stopping cells that damage them with 1 shot every 6 months. Do not take prolia® if you have low blood calcium, are pregnant, are allergic to it, or take xgeva®. Serious allergic reactions, like low blood pressure; trouble breathing; throat tightness; face, lip or tongue swelling, rash, itching or hives have happened. Tell your doctor about dental problems, as severe Jaw Bone Problems may happen or new or unusual pain in your hip, groin, or thigh, as unusual Thigh Bone Fractures have occurred. Speak to your doctor before stopping prolia®, as spine and other Bone Fractures have occurred. Prolia® can cause serious side effects, like low blood calcium; serious infections, which could need hospitalization; skin problems; and severe bone, joint, or muscle pain. If your bones arent getting stronger isnt it time for a new direction . Why wait . Ask your doctor about prolia. They yell death to rouhani, as much as they do death to the supreme ruler. I think the society is fraying rather profoundly and its important to remember that iran has had over 100year quest of search for increasing representative government. It is unique, actually, in the middle east. And i think we should Pay Attention to that. And we should realize that though the Islamic Republic has brutalized Iranian Society as did the shah before it, you still have a very powerful, i would argue, current greater democratic expression. Trita . Without a doubt the desire for democracy is very strong. Theyre the ones who have been pushing to move the country in that direction. The question is, will any interference or efforts from the outside help or undermine it . Invariably in the 100year quest weve seen for intervention, its always set back the iranian peoples aspirations. The 1953 intervention to unseat the democratically elected Prime Minister mossadegh is the prime example. The government itself so far, were not seeing any signs of panic. Certainly a tremendous amount of discontent and protests that look very different from with an we saw in 2009. This is coming from the smaller cities that have not reached tehran yet, a class that is usually seen as being supportive of the regime. There are efforts from the outside to fuel protests. Robin, where do you come out on this . The United States pressure, does it help the Iranian Regime in a way that, for example, it helped the castro regime in cuba,
because they can say they were battling the americans and american pressure, or is it, at the end of the day, pressure is pressure and it weakens the regime . Probably both. The biggest pressure on the Iranian Regime comes from within. The fact that the majority of the voters today were born after the revolution and this is one of the most connected societies. It has a very sophisticated polity. They are aware of what happens in the rest of the world. They dont want to be a pariah and dont want to see their currency halved as it has in the past year. They want to buy their western goods and dont want to be stuck with inferior chinese stuff. I do think were reaching a turning point. In august and again in november, u. S. Sanctions go in effect. First, not just on iranian goods but any company that does business from any country with iran. And so this will undermine even those countries that have stuck to the nuclear deal, the companies in those countries are going to feel pressure not to deal with iran, because then they cant sell their goods to the United States. You see big global companies, frances totale, germanys siemens. The pressure will mount. Will there be this confluence of factors that really undermine the regime . Just a year ago you saw almost 77 of the population in iran turn out for a president ial election, much higher than it was in the u. S. President ial election a year before that. There are still people willing to participate in a system a year ago. Whether the system can collapse quickly, i think, is a big question. I think one thing we could be sure is the pressure is mounting and this is going to be a story to watch. Thank you. Thank you very much. Next on gps, trumps tariff war and why it wont work. Back in a moment. Come fly with me, lets fly, lets fly away. Come fly with me, lets fly, lets fly away. Keep it comin love. Keep it comin love. Dont stop it now, dont stop it no. Dont stop it now, dont stop it. Keep it comin love. Keep it comin love. Dont stop it now, if you keep on eating, well keep it comin. All you can eat riblets and tenders at applebees. Now thats eatin good in the neighborhood. Whos already won three cars, two motorcycles, a boat, and an r. V. I would not want to pay that insurance bill. [ ding ] oh, i have progressive, so i just bundled everything with my Home Insurance. Saved me a ton of money. Love you, gary
you dont have to buzz in. Its not a question, gary. On march 1, 1810 [ ding ] frederic chopin. Collapsing in 226 [ ding ] the colossus of rhodes. [ sighs ] Louise Dustmann [ ding ] brahms lullaby, or wiegenlied. When will it end . [ ding ] not today, ron. World segment. A lot has changed in American Politics over the last 30 years, but theres one thing you can always count on, republicans hating taxes. Read my lips. No new taxes. Tax increases destroy jobs. Weve made history by massively reducing jobkilling taxes. It turns out theres a certain jobkilling tax trump actually loves, tariffs. Tariffs are pretty much the same as taxes, which is why freemarket economists from alan smith onward have hated them. When trump puts a tariff on a foreign good, what he is doing is taxing that good, making it more expensive for americans. Take, for example, trumps tariffs on imported steel. Its true this would help americans who make steel, because their competitors products coming in from abroad
would be more expensive. But there are only about 150,000 American Workers who make steel. That is dwarfed by the 6. 5 million americans who work in industries that buy and depend on cheap steel, writes douglas irwin, dartmouth economist of foreign affairs. Including everything from small tool manufacturers to large defense firms. Goldman sachs says General Motors and ford could each lose 1 billion this year because of the steel tariffs. The Trump Administration is looking into tariffs on another 200 billion worth of chinese goods and has threatened Automobile Tariffs on allies. Costing nearly 200,000 jobs, according to the Peterson Institute. Listen to larry summers. This is the least
wellconceived Economic Policy that the United States has pursued since the period before the great depression. So why even start these tariff wars . Dont blame the administration. Dont blame japan. Dont blame europe. Blame china. Well, china is a trade cheat that breaks the rules and bends others, as i have often said. These are problems. But trumps tariffs are not the answers. In mid june, the United States announced tariffs on 50 billion worth of chinese imports. The overwhelming majority of them were on whats known as intermediate goods. In other words, parts for things Like Computers or cars or on machines used to build them. Those are the kind of tariffs that will raise costs for manufacturers in the u. S. And the Peterson Institute found that those same tariffs would primarily target Multinational Companies operating in china, many of which are american, not chinese companies. The chinese europeans and canadians have all retaliated and their tariffs are much smarter. They target final products that will affect americans directly. Kentucky bourbon, Harley Davidson motorcycles, all seen as potent National Symbols and many are located in the republican heartland. Targeting them is designed to mobilize powerful republican legislators who have to answer to those voters. The best way to get china to reform its Trade Practices is for the United States, europe and other allies to work together. Instead, the United States is forcing its allies into chinas arms and many republicans are standing on the sidelines, as donald trump overturns yet one more of the defining ideologies of conservative. Next on gps, pakistan elects a new leader. What can we expect from the former cricketer, imran khan . I will talk to the experts when we come back. Paying too much for insurance you dont even understand . Well, esurance makes it simple and affordable. In fact, drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of 412. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance. An allstate company. Click or call. Plaguing pakistan for decades and showing no signs of abating. The former Cricket Player turned politician has been strongly antiamerican and such sentiments in pakistan were exacerbated when trump withheld hundreds of millions of Dollars Worth of military aid earlier this year. What should we expect . Joining me now, pakistans former ambassador to the United States, husain haqqani, who joins us from rome, and Laurel Miller was the United StatesSpecial Acting Representative to afghanistan and pakistan. Laurel, let me start with you. Why did imran khan, a politician who, i dont know, five, seven years ago, as i recall, his party won one seat in parliament. Why did he win . Several factors contributed to his apparent election victory. The first one is that there is little doubt that the Pakistani Military tilted the Playing Field in his favor through pressure on the courts, through pressure on the media, indeed
harassment of pakistani media and through intimidation of election candidates. Its also the case that imran khan has genuine popularity in pakistan. His party did quite well all across the nation. And he has worked very hard over the last two decades to move from the fringe of pakistani politics to the center of power in pakistan. And a third factor is, its not difficult to see why many in the pakistani electorate would want to vote for change. What does this mean for u. S. pakistani relations . He has been strident antiamerican. The Trump Administration seemed to turn up the pressure on pakistan. Though it seemed a momentary spasm rather than a sustained policy. Whats going to happen . I think that imran khan will try to reach out to the u. S. , which he did in his first statement as well because of pakistans massive problems. Theres no money. Pakistan needs every dollar and assistance that it can get. That said, i think its also very clear that the reason why the Pakistani Military establishment supported khan was because they want status quo on Foreign Policy and International Relations while wanting to change the status quo at home. On one hand, they do want a civilian government that is less corrupt but they want a civilian government that is more obedient to the military. I see no basis on which the United States and pakistan will be able to bridge the divide that has emerged between them. I do realize that the two countries will have to interact
with each other but i dont think that interaction is going to lead us to anything different from what we have had in the past. Laurel, what do you think . The United States and pakistan have had the same dance now since 9 11. The United States has said were going to push you hard, because you are at the source of a lot of the terrorism coming out. You support these jihadis. You have supported them for decades. At the same time, the United States needs pakistan to fight some of these forces and so it never quite cuts pakistan off. This has been the dance ever since colin powell went to musharraf right after 9 11. Youre right. Im not expecting to see any change in the near to medium term in u. S. pakistan relations, any breaking out of that dynamic you just described. The United States is pursuing a policy and a strategy in afghanistan that makes the United States dependent on some
level of cooperation with pakistan. Theres no solution to the problems in afghanistan, no enduring stability in afghanistan without some degree of cooperation with pakistan. Husain, what does this mean for pakistan . So many of the countries are moving, in some way, look at malaysia, moving away from authoritarianism. In some cases the military is even more dominant. Where does this go . It has a very fixed notion of what pakistans interest is. Pakistan must see india as the eternal enemy. Pakistan must have a dominant role in afghanistan and pakistan must be the Center Of The Universe as far as that region is concerned. That is an untenable situation when your literacy is low and
quality of education does not create the human capital. I think if, as laurel says, that the dependence on pakistan if the United States decides to pack up and leave pakistan, it leaves pakistan with no anchor and also its own domestic growth and Pakistani Military is betting heavily on china, expecting them to bail pakistan out. Pakistanis alone can bail pakistan out and pakistanis need to think beyond the military as the countrys savior, but the military does not allow that to happen. Thank you both. Husain, as youve often written, pakistan has invested far more in its military over the last 70 years in its independence than it has on education and human development. I suppose that statistic says it all. Up next, if the rest of the show has gotten you down, the next segment will make you happy. I guarantee it. Stay tuned. Throat tightness; face, lip or tongue swelling, rash, itching or hives have happened. Tell your doctor about dental problems, as severe Jaw Bone Problems may happen or new or unusual pain in your hip, groin, or thigh, as unusual Thigh Bone Fractures have occurred. Speak to your doctor before stopping prolia®, as spine and other Bone Fractures have occurred. Prolia® can cause serious side effects, like low blood calcium; serious infections, which could need hospitalization; skin problems; and severe bone, joint, or muscle pain. If your bones arent getting stronger isnt it time for a new direction . Why wait . Ask your doctor about prolia. Slonly remfresh useseep one in ionpowered melatonin ht. To deliver up to 7 hours of sleep support. Number one sleep doctor recommended remfresh your nightly sleep companion. This past january, a brand new class immediately became the most popular class in the history of the school. Psych 157, but everybody calls it the happiness course, quickly enrolling more than 1,200 students according to the yale daily news, so many students that class had to be held in a concert hall. Its popularity didnt end at yale. It soon became a viral sensation, featured in the new york times, the Washington Post, and many more. What is all the fuss . Professor Laurie Santos joins me now. Thanks so much for having me. Why did you decide to teach this class . The class came out of a different role i had at yale. I became one of their heads of college. Its kind of like hogwarts. I live on campus with the students, eat with them in the dining hall and hang out with them in the coffee shop. I saw them in the trenches in terms of what they were going through. As a Faculty Member i was shocked at the Mental Health issues i was seeing, frankly. This is the kind of thing that folks report not just at yale but a National Trend thats getting worse. About 30 of students report being so depressed its difficult to function. Over 50 of College Students report being anxious a lot of the time and over 80 say that they feel overwhelmed by all they have to do. This was not my college experience. Its not the kind of spot where were going to be educating students well if theyre this
depressed and this anxious. Data suggests that over the years, people have been asking for more and more Mental Health at colleges. Why do you think this is happening . I dont know. I think there are a number of Different Things at work. My sense is that colleges are often prioritizing the kinds of things that science suggests arent very good for wellbeing. Overfocused on grades, future focused about what kind of job theyre going to get later, even at a place at yale where most of them are going to get good jobs. Those are not the kinds of things that promote wellbeing. It comes from being in the moment, social connection, counting your blessings and not worrying about the things in the future. When you talk about the social connections and social interaction and all the Research Suggests actual physical social interaction is very useful in giving people a sense of wellbeing. It seems to me that particularly for younger generation, they live in a world of social media interactions more than social
interactions. Do you think that plays a role . I think its no coincidence that these kinds of Mental Health issues are coming up in this age where technology is pulling away the kind of normal social interaction we have. And thats true on social media, where i think people think theyre getting social connection out of scrolling their instagram feed but havent talked to a live person or made a real social connection. Its also all kinds of other tech. We dont talk to our cab driver and explain where were going, because weve punched it into uber. We dont talk to the checkout clerk. We scan it on our own. Research suggests its those simple social connections, talking to the barista at the coffee shop or the person on the street, that can bump up wellbeing much more than we forecast. I think about the experience of dating. You used to go to a bar, you meet someone, and now, of course, you look at an app. Thats correct. And evaluate somebody on very superficial criteria and you get evaluated and that cant be good for your sense of self worth. Its also activating another thing we know from the research that can be problematic, which is our social comparison. Our mind is really good at picking out a Reference Point of who we should compare ourselves to. What should our salary be, how good should we look . We compare ourselves often in a bad way. And i think social media allows us for so much more kinds of comparisons that make us feel bad about ourselves on these different dimensions, attractiveness, wealth levels. For our College Students, the grades theyre getting. They talk about getting good grades. Nobody talks about bad grades. Increasing the number of social comparisons that happen on a daily basis and thats not good for wellbeing. In the course, what do you try to give whats the message you try to give about what does lead to the good life, what does lead to happiness . The first part of the message is that the sad thing that the science tells us is that our minds lie to us all the time. We miswant things. Thats a hard thing to take. We think we need to change our Life Circumstances to become happier, we need a new job, bigger salary or need to move. The Research Suggests that our Life Circumstances play really little role. Its not what we forecast but what the science shows. What plays a much bigger role is our simple practices, like making a social connection or taking time for gratitude or taking time to be in the present moment, having some time thats unscheduled. Whats interesting about what youre describing actually is its simpler than what we think. We think what will make us happy is making a lot more money or moving to a different place or having a different apartment or partner, whatever. But what youre saying is really if every day you, i dont know, follow some routines where you make sure that you meet with some friends, have some social interaction, do a little exercise, whatever your daytoday routine is, that can make you much happier. Thats easier to do compared to doubling your income . Exactly. I take the science of happiness of giving us a lot of good news. Its not the hard things you need to change. Its the simple things. The problem, as we know, as psychologists, even changing the simple things can be really hard. Thats why were only a few paying too much for insurance that isnt the right fit . Esurance. An allstate company. Electronic Dance Music our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get you the readiest. buzzer sound holiday inn express. Be the readiest. Okay. Your all you can eat ribenjoy. Thanks. When i touch you like this and i hold you like that. Its so hard to believe but its all coming back me. Baby, baby, baby. If you touch me like this and when you hold me like that. All you can eat is back, baby. Applebees. And try new align gummies, with prebiotics and probiotics to help support digestive health. Im a small business, but i have. Big dreams. And big plans. So how do i make the efforts of 8 employees. Feel like 50 . How can i share new plans virtually . How can i download an efile . Virtual tours . Zipfile . Really big files . In seconds, not minutes. Just like that. Like everything. The answer is simple. Ill do what ive always done. Dream more, dream faster, and above all. Now, ill dream gig. Now more businesses, in more places, can afford to dream gig. Comcast, building americas largest gigspeed network. Theres been a lot of talk about russian interference in the american elections this week, but another election brings me to my question. Which of the following countries will achieve near gender parody this year in both its senate and lower house of congress . Rwanda, south africa, france, or mexico . Stay tuned and well tell you the correct answer. My book of the week is the china mission. We think Foreign Policy has become partisan today, but this superb book reminds us that the debate over who lost china as it went communist in 1949 was ferocious, even engulfing the most admired men in america at the time, general george marshall. The portrait of marshall, who was sent on a mission to china, is by itself worth the price of the book. His decency and rectitude is so impressive, he refused to write his memoirs because he thought that would be improperly profiting from Government Service that he stands like an Ancient Roman statue in todays
washington. The answer to my gps challenge this week is d, mexico. When the newly elected Mexican Congress takes power in september, women are projected to make up almost 50 of both the senate and the lower house. Overall, this means the country would have the fourth highest percentage of women in a lower or single house of Parliament According to the u. N. Affiliated interparliamentary union. The mexican President Elect announced his cabinet would feature an equal number of men and women, and mexico city also elected its first female mayor. These advances are not happening in a vacuum. For years, mexico has been putting in place stricter and stricter quota rules demanding equal representation of women and men on candidate lists. In fact, as the Washington Post pointed out in 2014, mexico even amended its constitutions along these lines. It now states that Political Parties should put rules in place to ensure gender parody