The u. S. Defense secretary says that president obama is considering direct action on the ground there. We will take you inside the administrations thinking on iraq with deputy secretary of state. Then, its one year and one week until the election. All eyes already on the polls. What do they lareally tell us a will todays frontrunners be tomorrows nominees. Also from one child to to. China changes decades of policy. Its hoping to grow its economy by growing its family. Will it work . One of the worlds most famous scientists on dr. Ben carsons rejection of the theory of evolution. This is not something you believe in or not. Its fact. Its fact. Its just as much a fact as the earth goes around the sun. Heres my take. I had an interesting visitor drop by my office last week, and he said something that stuck with me. The most important contest in the world right now, he said, is between isis and us. He is rasheed, the intellectual leader. Despite winning the countrys first free elections compromised with its political foes and helped make tunisia the arab springs only success. As he sees it, the real struggle is not between islam and the west but between the isis model and the tunisian model. The only way to beat isis is to offer a better product to the millions of young muslims in the world. That better product needs to be a political system and respects human rights but also allows islam and its values some space within the political system. We are building the alternative model in tunisia, he told me proudly. His Success Story is quite fragile. Not quite the fairy tale version thats recounted. They were reluctant to compromise. They left power only because they thought the country would explode if they didnt. Key elements of the old guard have returned in force and the place remains fragile with the economy under severe pressure. Most transitions to democracy are marked by bitter struggles. Democracy did not come to south korea or taiwan or chile. The dictators resisted fiercely. Its only in retro spect that one can look back and peace calmly of peaceful democratic transitions. In a conversation with the countrys head of government, i asked him to explain the countrys success. He pointed to three things. First he said tunisia has existed as a political entity for 3,000 years from the times of ancient carthage. It does not have the sectarian and tribal differences. Third he explained that on the first postindependence leader tunisia built Strong Political and administrative institutions. In addition to all these structural advantages its benefits from wide leadership. The old order, the elites were still very powerful so the country wouldnt be run by excludesing them. He noted that you cannot go for total victory. In mature democracies, perhaps the party that up with of the polls would have its way but gives the youth and fragility its leaders decided to go for consensus and compromise. We lost power. We won tunisia. He remained surprisingly optimistic about the arab spring. People will not go back to the old ways of tyranny. Like the french revolution the arab spring has produced turmoil and violence and reaction but it will transform all these de dictatorships in the muslim world. Thats a note of optimism in a bleak landscape. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. Lets get started. What to make of the white houses apparent bout face. The decision to spend 50 special Operations Forces into syria after saying for years it would not put boots on the ground. Joining me now is richard at the state department. He joins me from the council on Foreign Relations where hes the president. Is this a big shift or just an enhancement of an existing mission . Its probably closer to that. Its a significant shift. Its meant to correct the basic deficiency in u. S. Policy where we havent had a ground partner for years and weve learned we cant do it from the air or create aground partner. I understand the tactical issue here which is kind of just allows the u. S. To operate militarily more effectively but its partnering with the kurd even though they present its a multiethnic force. The kurds dont want to go into rocca, defeat isis and take control of syria. They just want their enclave. Its almost like a humanitarian intervention rather than a political military one to take control of syria. Exactly right. This is not an all syria strategy. Its not wildly ambitious. I dont mean to diminish what it is. Its not the beginning of restoring syria as a country. This is to stabilize syria. What youll end up with if this succeeds, probably for years is a syria of four, five, six enclaves. Thats the definition of success here. What im worried about is there is a tendency in these situations to do tactical things that enhance your position that are more effective. You dont think a lot about the strategy. What im trying to figure out is what the is strategy if this succeeds . You take over towns like rocca and you have a bunch of kurds who are in charge of rocca or kurds assisted by americans. Thats not going to go over well with the 85 sunni population. I think this stabilizes the situation, keeps a bad situation from continuing to get worse. It then buys you time by freezing or slowing the situation on the ground. I think thats part of the goal which is over time the United States with russia, i realize its something of a long shot, can talk about a political transition into damascus. What we need is partner in damascus we can work with. We would work with some transitional successor government. This could buy you time until you get to that point. What do you think of the idea of iran being invited to join the talks . They are crucially involved. Helping the regime. Its helping the regime. They are a big player on the ground. Would that translate into them being helpful at the negotiating table in geneva. The iranian vs have to worry about the middle east. I think they understand that at some point in this process assad has to go. They wouldnt do it as favor to us. Theyd do it as a favor to themselves. I think the russians understand the same thing. We have to be flexible. I cant sit here and tell you were going to be able to partner with the iranians here. Its worth trying. By working with the kurds and some arabs we can perhaps slow the momentum of isis which will help get more kurds and arabs to work with us. It helps make the situation on the ground from getting worse. At least it creates a backdrop where diplomacy can succeed. Right knew now we have no backdrop. We have an imbalance of power that works against us. This could lead to balance of power that more works in our favor. Do you think that between the 3,5 3,500 troops in iraq, now the 50 in syria, be United States is engaged in way they will be more in control of situation . What i worry about is at the end of the day this is a very deep sectarian divide. You described it as the middle east 30year war. Can we shape the outcome with these incremental pointed intervention interventions . Its the right thing to say. I think thats only true if your goal is to win war in the traditional sense. I dont think its our goal to restore iraq. I dont think its our goal to restore functioning national syria. I would say our goal is to keep as many innocent people alife and keep the terrorists from roll up territory. I think our goal is what we want to prevent the even that relatively modest goal will turn out to be sufficient. I think the announcement made over this week is consistent with trying to keep the middle east from going over the cliff rather than trying to remake the middle east in our image. Stop it from blowing up anymore. Very, very interesting conversation. Thank you so much. Thank you. Now from syria to iraq. The United States is talking about putting a handful of troops in syria, but already has thousands in iraq. How should we think about the United Statess past and future involvement in iraq . Youll hear from the deputy secretary of state, next. charge music you wouldnt hire an organist without hearing them first. Charge so why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. I will take beauty into my own hands, where it belongs. Olay regenerist, it regenerates surface cells. New skin is revealed in only 5 days without drastic measures. Stunningly youthful Award Winning skin. Never settle for anything less. The regenerist collection, from the worlds 1. Olay, your best beautiful. Here is the number 50. Thats the top limit of how many special Operations Forces the white house says it intends to send to syria as you heard in the last segment. Here is a much bigger number. 3,500. Thats how many troops the United States already has in iraq fighting isis. Ten days ago, one of them was killed. Master Sergeant Joshua wheeler. He was the First American so soldier to die under enemy fire in iraq in four years there. We will deliver isil is lasting defeat. Is the United States back in business in iraq . Ash carter said this week before the Senate Arms Services committee that the u. S. Was considering direct action on the ground. Youre about to see an interview i did for my documentary which i did this past monday. Hes Deputy National security advisory to obama and National Security advisor to biden. At the end of the day the iraqis wants us out. Thats what happened. The body politics was clear on that. The really group that really wanted us to stay was the kurds. They didnt believe it, every step of the way we designed a glide path that would gradually pull us out of iraq. At every step along the way the iraqis didnt believe we would follow through. They didnt believe we would get out of the cities, we did. They didnt believe we would end our combat mission. We had to prove to them that we meant it. In my judgment, at least, we actually had to leave in order to reengage later and get back in. To what extent do you think you do have a coherent, functioning partner in iraq today . We have an increasingly functioning partner in iraq. Its a work in progress. It was important to have a partner on the ground because it was our firm belief in the experience of the last decade that the most effective and Sustainable Way to deal with this problem was to have people who are willing to fight for their own country, do the work on the ground with our very strong support, with our air support, intelligence, weapons, advice. People taking back their own country. In the past year, as a result of these efforts and as result of much greater coherence among the iraqis and the coalition, the territory that isis controls is down 35 from where it was when the coalition was first formed. Thousands of isil members have been killed. Much of their material has been destroyed. In many parts of iraq, they are on their heels, not on their toes. Theyre still capable of taking the initiative. They still have a base and sanctuary in syria. The one part of iraq where things have been much more difficult is ambar province because of this conflict. Whats changed is this was a problem. To bring them in. To populate the beginnings of the National Guard and bring more of them into the iraqi army itself. To get more control that have shia militia in them to to stabilize areas that were newly liberated. Were seeing that start, let me emphasize start. People will make their judgments about the war whether it was wise to get into it, the way we got into it, the way we prosecuted it. By the time the Obama Administration came into office, that was an inheritance that we had to deal with. We were determined to make the best possible future we could for iraq and live up to that responsibility. Thats what we tried to do. I think there were moments in the last years when you could see and we can still see way for iraq. It depends on the iraqs themselves. They have to decide the future of the country. They have to decide the future depends on them and not a cross purposes. That says the United States can affect these regions or the future. The question is not whether we can affect them. I think we can. The question is whether what we do can truly be dispositive in shaping their future. I think its our police chief th belief that its up to the people. We can help. We can push. We can prod. We can support, but its not up to us. It comes back to this basic proposition that most of these problems are not about us. By definition, theres not some simple solution that is within the power of the United States. It has to be them. The question is what can we do, if anything, to maximize the potential for a positive outcome and minimize the potential for a negative one. That interview was part of our latest special long road to hell, america in iraq if you missed it stay tuned to my facebook and twitter accounts on when the show will reair. Next, why in the world did china just reverse nearly four decades of policy deictating ho many children its citizens can bear. Ill tell you why western leaders should Pay Attention. 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Com this is humira at work now for our what in the world sessigment. China made a decision that will change the course of that country and the world. After four days of intense meetings, beijing announced it would end its one child policy which forbade many chinese couples from having multiple children. All couples in china will be allowed to have two children. This was an admission that chinas greatest obstacle to continue growth in the long run was its demographics. It would have too few Young Workers and too many old retirees. China would grow old before it would grow rich. This new policy aims to change the fate. I remember when the policy was adopted in the late 1970s. People were envious of chinas ability to force chinas family planning. India was chaotic. The incentive for smaller families didnt seem to do much to keep family sizes down. Poor countries have little money and many mouths to feed. The policies behind them turned out to be wrong. In 1968 a stanford biology wrote a book titled the population bomb. He warned we did not have the resources for the number of people on the planet. Today the earths population is twice what it was in 1968. We have innovative ways not just to survive but prosper. However, the idea persists that our big problem is too many people. As we recently noted in the wall street journal the United Nations says we will add over two billion people to the worlds population in the next 35 years implying an unmanageable strain on our resources. The problem might be the reverse. As countries develop their birthrates plunge. Work population growth which is averaged nearly 2 is about 1 . Couples are not replacing themselves. Even in a poor country like india, the fertility rate has plummeted. Couples use to have six children and now the average is less than three. The real problem the rich world faces acutely, particularly europe is a population implosion. Only the countries that adapt early to the population implosion will thrive in the baby bust era. He predicts that countries will only be able to thrive economically if they become friendly to immigrants or convince their people to have more babies, which is much harder. Chinas technocrates have studied the data and trying to adjust to the new realities out there. Will western politicians follow suit . Next, the 2016 president ial horse race. Whos up, whos down . More importantly, what all of those numbers actually mean and do they mean anything at all . You wouldnt order szechuan without checking the spice level. It really opens the passages. Waiter. Water. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. Jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive the artificial heart, this ielectric guitarsdoers, and rockets to the moon. Its the story of america land of the doers. Doin it. Did it. Done. Doers built this country. The dams and the railroads. John henry was a steel drivin man hmm, catchy. They built the golden gates and the empire states. And all this doin takes energy no matter whos doin. Theres all kinds of doin up in here. Or what theyre doin. What the hecks he doin . Energy got us here. And its our job to make sure theres enough to keep doers doin the stuff doers do. To keep us all doin what we do. Carson is now ahead. Hillary has a solid lead but bernie is rising in iowa. When ever i see headlines about the race and hear news reports, i swatch my head and wonder what to think. What should i Pay Attention to . What should i ignore . How will anyone know when theres so Many Republican candidates in the field. I brought in two actual experts to help me understand. Joining me now the queen of polling in iowa. She runs the polling firm selsa and Company Based in des moines, iowa. That first question, with the huge field like this, i stiels think to myself how would one figure out, for example. There is some kind of antitrump vote or nontrump vote. Is there way to figure out when it goes down to four . We have some signals about how that will look. I agree with you. When we started polling, looking at our preliminary data how will we set with the tiers are, you have a top tier but the middle tier is gigantic and people that dont even score. We were saying we have to look at more than just the horse race question. With a little intex we put together we created way to see marco rubio had upside potential way early when we first started. Why . What were you attesting to that . He had a high number for second choice and very high number of people who say hes not my first or second choice but i could see myself ever voting for him. You only get one vote. Do you think at the end of the day the republicans will end up with a conventional candidate . I think so. The polls do not reflect where the results will be in the next few months. A lot is going to change. They all went onto lose at this point. What were seeing now is Republican Voters havent begun to think much ant this race. They are just now beginning the tune in. They will change their minds a lot. What were seeing is a reflection of the media and the debates. Can the debates, youve been doing this for a long time, can performance in a debate really boost peoples viability to the point that it starts registering . The one im remembering is before i was doing the polling and it was George Mcgovern in the 1984 debate who was the only statesman presenting himself that way and saying if you dont think i can win, then you vote whoever it is you want. If you want to send a message about what you want out of your democratic candidate, vote for me. He surged up to third place. Hed been polling very low. Debates do matter. A lot of people look at iowa and say this rural agriculture state with huge numbers of evangelicals, why do they get to go first . You can make the argument that iowa is the worst place to start the contest except for every place else. Youre going to start it somewhere. The benefit that iowa has is you can conquer the state. You cant conquer california in a meaningful way, in a personal way. You cant conquer texas. Iowa you can go to sioux county and meet the people. Youve got to organize people to show up. It really is a test of a campaigns ability to get things done in way isnt as true in other states. I think people look at who is at the top of the polls and they are impressed with donald trump up there. Theres a lot of candidates with a lot less thats gone to win. The reality is it in not take a lot of votes to win iowa. Its a low turn out race with a lot of people in field. You only need a small smegment to get behind you. I dont know that the way people are reading the polls right now focusing on a flashing number at the top is really going to say very much about how it will end up. Thats true on the republican side. The democratic side may be as clear as it looks. Hillary clinton may well be on a easy victory nationally. We dont know. I never make predictions because they always include a wish. Flpleasure to have you on. One of the worlds greatest scientists on why the republican frontrunners, especially those who should know better, dont seem to understand science. The promise of the cloud is that every organization has unlimited access to information, no matter where they are. The microsoft cloud gives our team the power to instantly deliver critical information to people, whenever they need it. Here at accuweather, we get up to 10 billion Data Requests every day. The cloud allows us to scale up so we can handle that volume. We can help keep people safe; and to us that feels really good. You wouldnt take medicine without checking the side effects. Hey honey. Huh. The good news is my hypertension is gone. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. Big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Just another day at norfolk southern. Eventually applying his theory of evolution applying it to all animals. The opposing theory is creationism which states god created men and women in his own image as the bible states. According to the Pugh Research center 98 of the professional scientists believe that humans and other living things have evolved over time. When the American Public was polled just 65 said they believe that. Of the gop candidates, almost none of them seem to believe it. Richard dawkins is a long time professor who has written. He has a brief resource out. If i look at the United States, currently the republican president ial candidates as far as i know, every single one of the declared candidates with the exception of trump about whom one doesnt know which way he would add, when asked about evolution say they dont believe it and jeb bush was asked. He said i sort of believe it but i dont think it should be taught in school. This is not something you believe in or not. This is a fact. It is a fact. Its just as much as fact as the earth goes around the sun. You cant not believe it unless youre ignorant. I believe they are ignorant. They think they have got to say that in order to appeal to their constituency. If thats true, its deeply depressing. You talk about some of this. How would you explain to somebody who says i dont believe in evolution. What do you use is the most powerful evidence. I think the most powerful evidence is not fossils. Fossils are the main evidence for the actual history of life. The most powerful evidence that evolution has happened is probably molecular genetics. In darwins time the comparative data, you look to human hand and compare it with a bats wing, a whales flipper, alions paw. You see the same bones. You can identify them bone for bone. That was in darwins time. Now question do that same kind of thing but with molecules and coded letters of dna. Do you can look at long reams of code. The letter by letter exactly as you might compare two versions of the book of jeremiah. Its letter for letter comparison. You can count the number of differences this millions between humans and chimps and monkeys. You can take any two animals you like and look at their molecules and count the number of letters that are different. That is just so overwhelmingly strong evidence. Darwin would have loved it. What do you say to ben carson who teaches medicine at yale. He says hes a creationist. He thinks that god created the world and youre going to tell me the complexity of the human brain and hes a brain surgeon came out of a soup full of chemicals and such. Im going to tell him not but not subtly. It took a long time. Thats what these people dont understand. They think it all happened suddenly. If you think that, of course you dont believe it. It couldnt happen suddenly but if it happens gradually. Each stage is only a tiny bit different from the one before then you can start understanding it. You told me all the republican candidates except one dont believe in evolution, thats a disgrace. For a distinguished doctor, as he is, to say that is even worse. Hea evolution is the bedrock of biology. For a distinguished doctor to not understand, he clearly doesnt understand the fundamental theory of his own subject. Thats a terrible indictment. Its a theory like all of science is a theory in the sense it does rest on evidence. Weve got to stop calling it a theory because its misunderstood. Evolution is fact. Its another way of putting its a theory thats been confirmed by throw saousands of. Mutually confirming pieces of data. Carson, im dwelling on him because hes a republican candidate. Hes what a lot of people think. This represents the height of arrogance of humans to believe they would understand gods mystery. I wouldnt call him arrogant. Hes a nice man. I met him. It is a form of arrogance to say we know what god does. In this case the evidence is overwhelming. Theres plenty of idea where is scientist isnt overwhelming. Theres no doubt. It is fact. Pleasure to have you on. Great pleasure as always. Thank you very much. Next, if you think american politics is a joke, well let me introduce do you a new world leader who is an actual comedian. Where in the world is it . Find out when we come wac. Is never easy. Doing your own thing, making your own way can be pretty, well, bold. Rickie fowler is redefining what it means to be a golfer. Quicken loans is doing the same for mortgages. Quicken loans. Home buy. Refi. Power. Official mortgage sponsor of the pga tour. And casuper food . Is that recommend sya real thing . Cedar . Its a great school, but is it the right one for her . Is this really any better than the one you got last year . If we consolidate suppliers, whats the savings there . So should we go with the 467 horsepower . Or is a 423 enough . Good question. You ask a lot of good questions. I think we should move you into our new fund. Sure. Ok. But are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed . Wealth management at charles schwab. singing you wouldnt haul a load without checking your clearance. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. Nnch. In the last few months we witnessed dr. Ben carson and donald trump overshadow established politicians. What country has elected a professional comedian who never held Political Office as its president . Stay tune andwell tell you the correct answer. One of the great and real what ifs of history is this. What if israels Prime Minister has not been assassinated in 1995. A decorated war hero he seemed determined to make peace with the palestinians and forge a twostate solution. In this fast paced well written book he takes us through the fascinating crucial moment in middle eastern history. Now for the last look. On tuesday a guided missile destroyer called the uss lasin passed within 12 nautical miles of reclanimed islands. Creating islands out of next to nothing is what has led to all this trouble in first place. The Defense Department says that over the past two years china has reclaimed almost 3,000 acres of artificial islands in the south china sea. An area sought after for its Strategic Maritime position. So rich with resources that some call it the second persian gulf. It was totally transformed this year. This one Fiery Cross Reef was built up in a year. According to the Defense Department in just 20 months china reclaimed 17 times more land than vietnam, malaysia and taiwan have claimed over the past 40 years combined. China continues to worry neighbors with the construction of facilities on the islands including a 3,000 meter. The u. S. Warned this week its patrols are expected to become more frequent. The Chinese ForeignMinistry Says if the u. S. Keeps stirring it up, it will be necessary for china to speed up its construction activities as the New York Times pointed out. This is one case in which china ease speed and efficiency to get stuff built will cause more problems than it solves. The correct answer is c. Television media was elected in land slide victory. He had just 1 of the polls in april surged with a clear slogan, not corrupt, not a thief. The president resigned and went to jail following a corruption scandal. He will find cleaning it up will be very tough and very serious work. Thanks to all you have for being part of my program this week. Ill see you next week. Good morning. Its time for reliable sources. Our weekly look at the story behind the story of how news and pop culture get made. Today were pulling up the curtain on the gop debate process. Every one in politics and every one in journalism is talking about one thing, cnbcs messy debate. The candidates are declaring mutiny and breaking with the National Republican party. Theyre talking about their debate complaints. The big question is this. Will all the future debates be actual debates at all. Are the claims of media bias at cnbc legitimate or are the candidates