good evening. i'm erin burnett. mitt makes a bold promise. 12 million jobs. take a look at this ad in the wall street journal. first of all i want to draw your attention to the cartoon. there is obama on a tuortoise with a whip. what was it supposed to be the tortoise and the hare? the newspaper denied the catchy cartoon but every word was written by glen hubbard. here in the second to last paragraph is the claim. president romney would create about 12 million new jobs in his first term and millions more after that. which means 250,000 jobs each and every single one of his 48 months in office. he says he will do that by cutting regulations and cutting taxes. does it add up? first the good news. tlt have been a few times in american history where this has happened. the chief economists of jp morgan notes it happened in the 1990s. that is where the good news ends for the romney jobs claim. since 1939 only 27% of monthly jobs reports have shown growth of 250,000 jobs or more. the research also notes the united states has never had four straight years where job creation was above a quarter of a millen a month. the longest stretch was only 11 months during the reagan years, september of 1983 until july of 1984. and then there is this reality. even if mitt romney created 12 million jobs we would still be in the hole. here is why. this country needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. we are talking about things like young people entering the workforce. that keeps you even with demographics. and then the situation we are in. jp morgan estimates we need 8 million jobs to make up for people who lost jobs during the financial crisis and still have them and people who gave up trying for a job but would come back looking for work as soon as the economy turned up. the bottom line on the math mitt romney needs to create 14 million jobs just to get us back to even. that is pretty grim. 12 is hard to get to. it may not matter who is president come january. great jobs booms come with great moments. like the tech boom on the 19 0i9ds we are on the cusp of a massive boom and wealth. we could be energy independent in years. the question is aside from something like that will mitt's policies deliver the magic 12 million number when history shows it is a tall order. outfront paul hickey and alex burr and michael etlinger. let me start with you, paul. this claim of 12 million jobs. you spent a lot of time looking at the history and the research they were studying was yours. >> it is a very tall order. the last time we had it was in the 90s. think about the 90s. we had a republican in office and a democrat in office and different control of congress. it is not necessarily the person in office that creates the jobs. it is what goes on around the economy. what the president does is helps foster that growth and support it or not support it. and on both sides of the aisle you have the argument that president obama is antibusiness or mr. romney is pro business. it's one of the things where we have a lot of unsure. it creates a lot of confusion. >> a lot of partisan point of view. let me ask you this question. people want specific numbers for people running for president. does he box himself into a corner with the 12 million number? i'm thinking about barack obama's promise of if you take my stimulus the unemployment rate will never go above 8% and it went over 10%. he has never gotten over that. >> that is right. there is certainly a risk and the experien of current president obama. we can't get below 8% and he promised not to go above that number. there is the risk for governor romney. the question is how big a claim is this? how close to this could we get if we had a strong economic growth? i agree with what paul said. it is not just about the president's policies but what congress does and that leadership is a contributing factorer. i believe some of the policies, other things that governor romney said on the campaign trail are consistent with promoting economic growth, getting us in that direction. i think tax reform alone creating a level playing field and lowering marginalal tax rates, not by creating taxes is the kind of change that a president could advocate that would be consistent with creating more jobs. >> revenue neutral tax reform is another can of worms. i know that is a big question. let me ask you this. barack obama is not thought of by most americans as someone who has created jobs. he is still in the hole. he hasn't created as many as were lost. he has added 4.4 million private sector jobs. i guess i'm making the argument. once you start going you can really create a lot of jobs. >> i mean i actually don't think that there is any problem with the target that governor romney has set or glen hubber rd has set. we have had many months where we have created more than 200,000 private sector jobs. >> six months. >> about half of the historical average. historically about 40% have over 200,000. so far during president obama's term we had half that rate. >> it has been six months. since we hit the bottom and since president obama's policies started having an impact in the middle of 2009 we created millions and millions of private sector jobs. i don't have an objection to romney saying he wants to create 12 million jobs. i think his policies aren't aiming at the target. i think that is a much bigger problem. i think the polies remind us of president bush's policies and they were failures. it is not surprising glen hubbard was president bush's top economics guy at the time the bush tax cuts passed. he promised a miracle then and is doing the same now which isn't that surprising. >> what i'm curious about is he is putting this 12 million number out which seems you lick your finger and put it in the air. he is betting on this tax reform being neutral. i'm curious how he gets there. he cuts taxes for wealthy americans and he is going to broaden the base. people who earn the least will start paying taxes for the first time. how what they pay makes up for a 20% tax cut because it seems like the whole argument rests on that being true? >> that is not how i would describe the framework. when he says tax revenue neutral tax reform and lowering tax rates and if your question is how that is possible, we need to keep in mind that only some of the dollars we earn are taxed by the tax code. we have a system that is very progressive. a lot of low and moderate income individuals that don't pay federal income tax. well to do americans are claiming tremendous deductions. state and local would be another. by reforming some of these tax expenditures, by reforming or repealing some of these we can broaden the tax base which permits us to lower the rates. this is what we saw on the simpson bowls report. that is the framework i understand. >> hopefully he will come out with specifics on which he will close. it might be what he is going to do. thanks for all of you. we appreciate it. outfront next, an attack on mitt romney straight from not the tortoise's mouth, the horse's mouth. you thought it was a bad few months for facebook and it got worst today. these are images we have for you in taiwan that are truly stunning. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. homicide of young people in america has an impact on all of us. how can we save these young people's lives? as a police chief, i have an opportunity to affect what happens in a major city. if you want to make a difference, you have to have the right education. university of phoenix opened the door. my name is james craig, i am committed to making a difference, and i am a phoenix. visit phoenix.edu to find the program that's right for you. enroll now. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. our second story outfront. dressage day at the olympics. romney's horse was out front and center. they danced their way to 13th place. she may be in. they find out tomorrow if they move to the next round. dressage is an expensive sport. the liberal group wants voters to hear negative things. >> my name is rafalca. how do i pull off such grace while looking so good? maybe because the romney's spend $77,000 a year on my upkeep and after mitt romney ships your jobs overseas i will say your life won't be nearly as pampered as mine. >> so ridiculous. it is true the romney's have an expensive horse. move on. you are spending five figures on that add. they wouldn't say whether the five figures was $10,000 or maybe $70,000 like the romney's horse which they say is greater than the average american income. i mean that really does take the cake or i don't know what the right dressage term would be. does this kind of thing work for anything other than a fall? >> it is a funny ad. it is making a serious political point. for decades the republicans have been very successful of coupling elitest economics with populous social approach. think of how they went after poor john kerry with his wind surfing. this is the first time we have an upper crust economics coupled with very traditionalal -- >> it is okay when you are a liberal and not when you are a republican? >> it makes wind surfing look like the national past time. the reason these negative narratives work is because they rip off reality. you have the coincidence of the romney's horse in the olympics. the key note is not just the talking horse, it is $77,000. when people hear that they say that is larger than the average house hold income. >> moveon.org wouldn't say how much they spent for the ad. >> this is so frustrating. not only is it a double standard but do you hear this? it was glamorous and elegant according to the media. lyndon johnson gave caroline a pony named macaroni and it was adorable. here ann romney is using the horse for therapy for ms and they are using this in the ad. >> in this country we say that every politician says they were born in a log cabin that they built themselves. people love -- >> not everyone is lucky enough to have been born in hope, arkansas. >> people love success and respect success and willing to elect wealthy people. but they want those people to be fighting for them. and the problem here is that the democrats are making the argument about taxes and economic policy. that is what makes it much harder. i will make a confession. until two weeks ago i didn't know there was a sport of dressage. >> i'm not sure what it is. it sounds like dress your horse up. i want to get to something that mitt romney said tonight that was unbelievable. it does seem that it is a double standard. mitt romney has this horse. barack obama raises money from the private equity titans while slamming mitt romney for being a private equity guy. >> and the fundraiser which is about the most tone deaf thing you can do as a democrat imaginable. it does stick. the facts of his extraordinary success. now i want to get to this. this is something that mitt romney has just said. so harry reeid came out. he has been saying it a lot. it got mitt mad. >> it's time for harry to put up or shut up. harry is going to have to describe who it is he spoke with because that is totally and completely wrong. it's untrue, dishonest and inaccurate. it is wrong. so i'm looking forward to have harry reveal his sources and we'll probably find out it is the white house. >> i guess you would say to mitt romney, too, put up or shut up. if you put your taxes out harry reid would have to "shutup." >> because he hasn't put the taxes out there is nothing preventing his opponents to bring it up. he is in a bit of a political spot here that may last until november. >> if they are wrong put them out and you will be the high horse. i'm sorry. i didn't mean to do it. >> we didn't really say that. still outfront you heard last night on this show breaking news that the psychiatrist went to authorities and tried to warn them that her patient had been threatening horrible things. why did the warnings not produce action? 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[ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? here's your invoice. the london olympics are creating some interesting problems because of the time difference most olympic events take place while a lot of americans are in the office. so for those who don't want to wait until prime time nbc has been streaming the events live online and a lot of people are watching at work. it has created a problem in los angeles where city hall workers have been asked to stop streaming the olympics because it could effect city operations. captivate network estimates that american companies will lose $1.84 million working dollars during the olympics. what bothered us today was a report that said the pentagon's missile defense agency had to send a memo to employees telling them to stop using their computers to watch porn. i wish they were just watching the olympics. some downloaded material from sites that were known to have viruses or malwear. the number tonight is 25 because that is the average number of threats found on a porn site that have been infected. some of the threats are more annoying. here is the real risk. if one of those sites has a virus that can access top secret files which is the way a lot of our rivals try to get into our nation's infrastructure we could see a massive breach of our nation's defense. we thought it worth while to bring it to your attention. facebook having a tough time and the rise of al qaeda. we're going down? his rod ♪ there is no relief for the brakes. we'll put them to the test today. all right, let's move out! 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[ ding ] oh, that's helpful! well, our company does that, too. actually, we invented that. it's like a sauna in here. helping you save, even if it's not with us -- now, that's progressive! call or click today. no mas pantalones! we start the second halff our show with stories we care about where we focus on our reporting from the front lines. first kofi anon has resigned. he says the distribution of force in society are such that only a serious negotiated political transition can hope to end the oppressive rule of the past and avoid a future descent into a vengeful war. they announce they are taking a $440 million loss after a software glitch caused the company to bring numerous bad sales. $440 million matters to this company, over three times more than they earned last year and the firm says it is exploring alternatives. the analysts we spoke to said they do have some assets. u.s. sanctions against the iran are costing $133 million a day. shipments have dropped by 52% since the sanctions began. estimates iran's oil export revenues are likely to fall from $108 billion last year to about 70 billion this year. 70 billion still means lalot of people are buying iranian oil. shares dipped below $20 a share for facebook. it fell 4% closing just above $20. the company is trying new things to try to get people engaged. they launched a new website called facebook stories which is a way to showcase user's stories and ideas. this month's theme is called remembering to try to remember historic buildings or things like that. according to regulatory filings about 83 million facebook accounts have no stories to share. those are the fake ones or duplicates. they say they have 900 million accounts. how many of them are fake? it looks like 100 million. it has been 364 days since this country lost its top credit rating. it has been almost a year. i spoke about the credit rating and fiscal cliff. there are things he was down about but one silver lining. >> america is one relatively small budget deal away from economic preimminence for decades to come. >> that made us feel good. hope it does you, too. tomorrow you will hear our interview on the one year anniversary of the downgrade. our third story outfront. al qaeda bomb plot busted in one of spain's biggest operations against al qaeda three suspected members of the terrorist group have been arrested. officials say the three had enough explosives to blow up a bus. this comes days after the state department said affiliate groups of al qaeda are rising in places like yemen, syria, somalia and egypt. we witnessed the influence first-hand last week and it continues to gain a foothold and northern africa. outfront tonight nic robertson who has done extensive reporting on al qaeda and seth jones, author of "hunting in the shadows." nick, what do you know about these men in spain, where they come from and where they are trained? >> two of them, the ones arrested pulled off a bust yesterday believed to have got both al qaeda training at camps in pakistan and afghanistan. believed to have tize to the group responsible for the attack in 2008, a very deadly attack in india. the third man is turkish. he was arrested today at a house. in that apartment police say they found some explosives but sniffer dogs that went in detected a lot of explosives. the other thing about these guys they have been practicing using paragliders and security authorities are concerned they might have been getting ready for an air borne attack on a joint u.s. spanish military base nearby. >> one of the suspects reportedly had explosive and chemical training. how serious of a risk is this? is this sort of surprising to you that there is anything new in what the training entailed? >> i don't think the plot is surprising. we have seen threats in the u.s. government. threats in spain and the u.k. and other european countries. it is important to realize as nick mentioned these at least one of these individuals had training in pakistan and afghanistan. so there was an international dimension to the training and the operations here which suggest a global nature of the problem. >> and, nick, any sense of how much further this goes? where the investigation is, obviously three people. what about the question of explosives and what they may have had? >> it may definitely go further. the police have been on the tail of at least two of the guys in spain, security authorities, as well. they have been bugging them, trailing them. the apartment where they were using was bugged. there is at least another person that we know was involved that the police haven't talked about. that is the wife of the turkish man that had the apartment where the explosives were being kept. the two arrested left the area in the south of spain and heading north. perhaps authorities believe to france. who are they going to connect with? perhaps more arrests. the explosives are missing. >> what about the issue that nick raised about france? there was the horrible, radical who had shot the jewish children in the face death. and just being along the border with france as the colonial power where al qaeda affiliates are rising there is a deep antpathy to france. >> france has been the target of strikes to groups in north africa. al qaeda islamic has expressed threats to france. one other thing i just add is we keep saying, administration officials say al qaeda is on the verge of defeat. here we have what looks like a very serious plot that is global in nature and goes to the area of pakistan. >> it is an interesting point. people are saying not only was it not defeated but spreading to other places. this goes back to the original roots in terms of the training. >> this training may go back many, many years when al qaeda had trains in afghanistan as well as training in pakistan. that group itself focused group has a lot of ideas in common with al qaeda and have talked in the past about spreading going more and taking their attacks more international. we have seen more evidence of that in other countries. there is a concern that perhaps they are using networks created by this organization in france, for example, that exists and perhaps it is this organization going a bit more global. you know, the whole nexus of these groups inside pakistan is not surprising. what concerns european authorities across the north of africa very concerned that following the arab jihaddests setting up camps not to attack inside libya but inside europe. >> clearly we saw it last week. our fourth story out front the biggest drought in half a century hiking up costs on dproeshryes. in fact the drought is impacting the price tag of 3/4 of food. lawmakers left today for one month vacation. dana bash is out front with the story. >> reporter: today pig is tomorrow's bacon. this year's devastating drought is all but certain to mean higher port prices next year. livestock producers are not getting the federal aid most farmers are. livestock is not covered by key government programs because of an accounting trick to save money in the farm bill four years ago. congress elimated aid for livestock in 2012 this year and it turned out to be the biggest drought. >> they were playing a gimmick to keep the costs down and so it really bit them in a behind. >> reporter: in a mad dash to act before leaving the house approved a $383 million bill to restore four expired programs for livestock, certain trees and farm raised fish. >> our livestock guys take just as much risk as any other farmer or rancher and they need to have protection. >> reporter: in the senate democrats refused to pass drought relief before leaving town. why? bare knuckle negotiating. democrats like debbie stabenow worry. >> the optics of congress leaving town with the worst drought in half a century and not doing something. >> not so good. they are in this building. if we get out in the real world we are hearing farmers and ranchers want us to get our job done. they want us to address disaster assistance. >> reporter: why not pass the five year farm bill? a house speaker admitted he doesn't have the votes. >> the house is pretty well divided. >> reporter: the senate bill is nearly $1 trillion. the majority of the spending $80 billion a year pays for food stamp programs. some democrats say that is not enough and some republicans say it is too much. on farmer the measure eliminates most direct payments to farmers. watch dog groups call the programs waste. >> we are looking at a little over $20 billion in the first four years of the program and another $20 billion in this last year. >> just in one year alone. >> i know they went on vacation for five weeks. you were asking somebody a question from michigan. no one is upset and doing the full thing before we go. is there real back lash to the fact that they didn't deal with the disaster relief? >> the people who voted against it or decided not to do this in the senate assist the answer to that is no. they say that they have big organizations like the cattle ranchers behind them. in the case of debbie stabenow, she is up for reelection in three months and she -- it's hard to believe that she would go home without doing anything for those who were really the hardest hit who don't have help from the government if she thought it was a political liability. they think ultimately they will be okay but it is still going to be a big fight when they come back. >> a lot of people watching that and everybody around the country being hurt by that right now. a disaster of biblical proportions in taiwan. we will show you pictures and the thin line between protecting doctor patient privileges. to... get in the way. not anymore. ink, the small business card from chase introduces jot an on-the-go expense app made exclusively for ink customers. custom categorize your expenses anywhere. save time and get back to what you love. the latest innovation. only for ink customers. learn more at chase.com/ink do you have any idea where you're going ? 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>> two perspectives. one is clinical. if you're treating a patient and you can identify a target, you inform the target. if you can identify the i am immediacy of a threat, then that's time to get somebody committed to a hospital. the forensics perspective is the population. mass shooting, unlike other homicide and high risk patients, it is not just a psychiatric issue, sometimes it is not a psychiatric issue, tas social phenomenon where a person is invested in the idea what is going to be the social payoff for me of becoming a notorious mass murderer, everybody is talking about me on cnn. why is that important here? because it happens on his clock, which means he can be thinking about it for months. >> you're saying in those cases, even though clearly something is wrong, you don't convey that -- >> of course, the sophistication of booby trapping, he didn't do it overnight or learn it overnight. the point is with a mass killer, he decides today is the day. he may not have made that decision in june or whatever. it may just have been a risk. the imminence may not have been it. when he made the decision i am leaving school, i am going to invest in this alternative life path. >> quick follow-up on that, though, as someone that has done this. does this happen where people make threats of mass shootings? i don't want to use the word regular. my point would be it happens enough as a doctor you don't pass them all to law enforcement because most are not real threats? >> you have to take a threat seriously. you probe it. it sounds like the psychiatrist from everything we've learned actually handled it quite responsibly. in fact, she may have had so much vigilance that people felt she was being an alarmist. >> paul, what about that question. the reality of it will be there will be people that will say she or the threat assessment board should have gone to law enforcement. these people died as a result of their failure, so they're liable. >> there will be lawsuits. in the end, we will look at what did dr. fenton know and when did she know it. did he threaten a specific individual or group, if he said i will go to a movie theater and blow it up, she had obligation to go to the police herself. the thing that suggests to me he didn't say anything particular to a group, she goes to the assessment team and asks for help and guidance. she wouldn't need help and guidance if he made a specific threat. then once you get to the threat assessment teams, it is a whole different thing. they're looking to help students opposed to avoid crimes. >> there's another important point to understand about this particular type of crime and that is mass murder is not about a crime of people that fall through the cracks, it is specifically a crime about people who crawl into the cracks. if he made a decision that he was going to embark on this, he may have intimated, talked about it, once he made the decision to proceed he would have been determined not to be stopped. you can stick with a patient as a psychiatrist. if he decides, if i open up to you, you're going to hospitalize me, i examined andrea yates. she knew she was going to murder her kids. she didn't tell the psychiatrist because she knew the psychiatrist would protect the kids and she got off on insanity. she knew for two months she was going to murder them. someone with the determination, and a mass killer does, they will be slent because they don't want it stopped. they're going for the payoff of us talking about them and they don't want that taken from them. >> follow up, what about the case in maryland, says he is going to get people in the workplace. they stopped him. he gets a $500 fine. >> only charged with a misdemeanor. they intervened early. >> they stopped the crime. >> they did stop the crime, but he is in a mental facility now. everybody is in a difficult spot. if you put too much burden on the psychiatrist, troubled people won't go to psychiatrists and open up to psychiatrists. it is a difficult situation. >> an important point. thanks to both. outfront next, the olympics. choose to do. and you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. scroll... tap... pinch... and zoom... in your car. introducing the all-new cadillac xts with cue. ♪ don't worry. we haven't forgotten, you still like things to push. 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