Transcripts For CNNW CNN Newsroom With Brooke Baldwin 20160412

Hasnt already, totally end any kind of talk that he could be up to become our next president. Aides say he will give an official statement at the Republican National committee official ruling himself out of any nomination. Lets go to our senior political reporter manu raju live on capitol hill with all of the details. Listen, he said no multiple times before. But finally this is it, is it really . It seems that way. Paul ryan has dealt with this increased speculation that he needs maneuvering behind the scenes to position himself for a possible run in a deadlock convention. Hes tried to end all that chatter. For months weve been asking him. He said no, im not running. Its only seemed to intensify the speculation and the chatter also among people in the Party Establishment who are worried about ted cruz, who are worried about donald trump and view paul ryan as a savior. Hes going to make the case very clearly that no matter what he will not accept the republican nomination. He is of course chairman of of that convention. And wants to deal with this, what could be a very messy fight on the floor in deciding who the next republican nominee is, as his office says, he wants to call balls and strikes. As you see him ma enouneuvers b the scenes, that would undermine that effort, so expect a pretty definitive statement today, brooke. Well keep an eye for that. And some Top Republicans not going to cleveland this july, why . Who . Yes, absolutely, brooke, youre seeing a lot of republicans nervous about what could be a very messy convention, a very, you know, donald trump said if hes denied the nomination, maybe there could be riots there. A lot republicans up for reelection are nervous for that. They dont want to be associated with this. Ive been told by a senior republican leader who said telling their members not to attend their convention and worry about their own campaigns back home. Richard burke of North Carolina told me hes more likely to spend time on his reelection race. Same with kelly ayotte of New Hampshire, a very close reelection race. Told me unlikely shes going to attend. Nick mulvaney, house conservative, said hes lobbying his fellow house conservative to stay at home and not attend the kaengs. I ran into jeb bush, i asked hi, are you to the convention in july, he said no. So youre hearing a lot of republicans want to stay away from what could be a really unpredictable and messy convention and they dont probably want to have anything to do with it, brooke. We will be there, cleveland, this july. Well chat, top of the next hour, ahead of House Speaker paul ryan. Thank you, sir. Not on to the actual president ial candidates. Donald trump is raging against the Party Machine so to speak. The republican frontrunner continues his tear against a delegate system that works against him in the state of colorado. He lost all 34 delegates there to his rival ted cruz. Not by popular vote, remember colorado, this is a state Party Convention process. That perhaps foreshadows what could play out at the national Party Convention. Millions of votes ahead, which they dont even talk about, they never even mention it. They talk about delegates. Im hundreds of delegates ahead. But the system, folks, is rigged. Its a rigged disgusting dirty system. Its a dirty system. And only a nonpolitician would say it. Trump calls it rigged. Reince priebus says the process is clean, it is clear. He said, quote, the rules were set last year, nothing mysterious, nothing new. But some delegate rules will play to trumps favor if he comes to the convention with the 1,237 delegates necessary for the nomination. In that first voting round, 95 of the delegates are bound, meaning they must vote for the candidate to whom they have pledged. But, this is when it gets interesting, if trump doesnt hit that threshold, the later rounds of voting open the doors for ted cruz and john kasich. That second vote, the tables turn and 57 of delegates are unbound. Meaning they can vote for the candidate they prefer. And if still no candidate has a majority of delegates, the third vote ushers in even more of a free for all with 81 of votes unbound. You with me . Larry noble joins me. He is a Convention Rules expert. We need you today, larry. Hes an attorney for the Campaign Legal center and was general counsel for the federal Election Commission. Larry noble, great to see you. Thanks for having me. I read this great piece in the Washington Post this morning and this one quote is from a former fcc general counsel. If they decide to go to cleveland, via cabo, that might be a problem. Spell it out for me. Ahead of cleveland, whats allowed . Fancy first class flights for these delegates, wining and dining in cleveland . Tell me whats permissionable. Start with the idea the election, under federal commission rule, delegates are not subject to contribution limits. Meaning somebody could pay for their travel to the convention. They can pay for their being put up at the convention. The money cant come from corporations, cant come from labor unions, cant come from foreign nationals. The question everybody has is where can that money come from and how much can they be given . Can they be sent on trips, vacations . Whats the answer . Well, were not quite sure of all the answers. I think if its a superpac paying for it, the superpac is corporate labor money, then it cant pay for the delegate. A candidate may be able to pay some expenses of the delegate but candidates are under limits in terps of personal use of Campaign Funds for anybody. They cant pay for a vacation for a delegate. A wealthy individual could pay for a delegate to attend various things. We wont necessarily know about that because thats not reported. So its a bit confusing. Also, i should say, some delegates are elected officials or state officials or local city officials, theyre under their own ethic laws so those come into play. You mentioned an important point, whats reported and whats not. Whos policing all of this moving forward . Well, i can tell you who is supposed to be policing this. The federal Election Commission is supposed to be policing this. The federal Election Commission has the rules regarding delegates. It is supposed to review the reports filed by various committees. Unfortunately, the federal Election Commission, as its own former chairman said, is beyond dysfunctional. It splits 33, its a sixmember commission, on most important matters. What is most important, if somebody has a question, they should be able to ask for whats called an advisory. The commission should be able to answer the question about what can the delegates do, who can pay for it. And they dont do that . Well, if they dont do that, they would be taking their chances. Everybody i think suspects the fec wont answer the question and also theyre betting on the fact the fec wont enforce the law. So if you do something that crosses the line, the odds youll hear from the fec are slim. If you do hear from them, it will years later. If you are a betting man and there are a few fourstar, fivestar restaurants in cleveland, you imagine the restaurants will be packed in july . I think they will be packed. Theyll be packed with delegates, lobbyists, other officials. Somewhat of an ethics free zone. Think youll see a lot of money being spent at the conventions. On process, id just be curious to pick your brain. We just played the sound bite where trump is saying essentially that the electoral process, this whole process is rigged. And you know every four years we go through this. People gripe. We talk with the electoral college. What do you think . Well, it is a process. There are rules in the process. It is not direct democracy either for the conventions, for the nominations or, frankly, for picking the president. We deal with a representative form of government and parties are private organizations that get to set their own rules and, you know, if you know what the rules are going in, thats what you have to deal with. Whether its rigged, i think its true the parties are set up to basically favor establishment candidates. Thats why you have on the democratic side superdelegates, certain rules on the republican side. But those are the rules going into the process. Final question, and then ill let you go, when we think about these conventions and especially if were anticipating multiple rounds of ballots on the republican side, will this mean, then, you know, no sort of pomp and circumstance, no big speeches, a la Clint Eastwood . Will it just all be voting, voting, voting . What will it look like . I think there still will be speeches, a lot of pomp and circumstance. I think the party needs to show it is a unified party even if its not. A lot of the voting will go on during the day. And youll see for the cameras at night theyll still be the various acts put on, the various things that play to the public. Larry noble, thank you so much. Youre welcome. Cnns republican president ial town halls with the candidates and their families continue tonight at 9 00 eastern. Donald trump and his wife, daughters ivanka and tiffany and sons eric and don jr. Theyll take questions from voters of new york, only here on cnn. Tomorrow night, 9 00 eastern, it is ted cruz and his wife heidi cruzs turn. Next the records everyone wanted to see. The clinton president ial library releasing all of its notes on donald trump. We will tell you what they reveal. Plus, the mayor one California City wants to ban trump from speaking there. How does she plan to do that . Well ask her live. And a new twist in the shoot death of a former nfl star. Did will smith hit and run moments before he was shot . We have the new video. Keep it right here to cnn. You both have a perfect driving record. Perfect. No tickets. No accidents. That is until one of you clips a food truck, ruining your perfect record. Yup. Now, you would think your Insurance Company would cut you some slack, right . No. Your insurance rates go through the roof. Your perfect record doesnt get you anything. Anything. Perfect for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. And if you do have an accident, our claim centers are available to assist you 24 7. For a free quote, call Liberty Mutual at switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509 call today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back. Your watching cnn. As Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battle it out in new york just two days before the cnn debate in brooklyn, donald trump is adding his voice to this whole thing. First he said the Democratic Party system is rigged. New hes going hard after Hillary Clinton, throwing some harsh barbs at the democratic frontrunner. Her whole life has been a big fat beautiful lie. Its been a terrible, terrible lie. Everything about her is a lie. Lets talk about the status of the democratic race, shall we . Donna brazile, cnn political commentator, still laughing, and democratic strategist jeff zeleny who has been all over the trail for us, senior washington correspondent. Awesome seeing you ahead of the big debate in brooklyn. Donna brazile, you laugh, what do you make of the fact he said that about her . I mean, look, hes reacting to an ad i thought was very effective about no coming together, standing together, and donald trump doesnt like anyone to talk about him or his brand without hitting back, so hes just insulting. His supporters love this. They love to hear his insults. He has so many one liners, if i was a joke factory, id be rich right now. He is very good at hitting back. The problem is theres hardly any content to what hes saying. Thats why hes struggling at this period. He should be coasting to the nomination. At a time when ted cruz and his Great Organization is taking a delegate every day away from Donald Trumps arsenal to get to the nomination. On Hillary Clinton, jeff zeleny, were two days before the big debate in brooklyn and Hillary Clinton had said sanders cant handle the bright lights of new york city. That is the latest iteration of how the Clinton Campaign is dealing with sanders. One this is the oneyear mark. Today marks the one year when she jumped in to the president ial race. I can tell you, never in their oneyear planner did it say that sanders was going to be a thorn in their sides. So the latest sort of strategy to draw criticism and distinction is to say he cant handle the bright lights. What do you think specifically she meant by that . If you look it up, that would mean hes untested, not as qualified as she is. Got into a flap last week over the word qualified. They do not believe he is as qualified as she is. Theyre trying to say now that really trying to shake new york voters. Say, look, i would be much stronger taking on donald trump than Bernie Sanders would be. Thus far, weve been looking at the democratic debates versus republican, you can make the argument its been substance, substance, substance. With all these barbs traded between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, that it will be heated and potentially nasty come thursday night. Well, its been heated. Its hard for me to feel the burn all the time because im neutral and i dont want to get that excited anymore. But the truth is, is that this is a very competitive race. Secretary clinton has a very good lead in terms of pledge delegates. We all know the supers will also be part of the mix. Bernie is one of the very what i call provocative campaign. Look, my email i get their emails, you know, i love emails and this morning they want 3 and then later in the day they want 27 so theyre still run a very interesting campaign. Theyre talking about fracing up in upstate new york. Theyre trying to mobilize people. Wall street is still a huge topic, income inequality. This is going to be an very contested primary. Hes going to stay in the race until june 7th or june 14th. What about on bill clinton whos really become this surrogate in chief for her on the trail . For the most part, has been on pretty good behavior. As done well for her. Except for what happened last week. Do you what do you make of how its gone . Do you think hes a liability . No, i think the upside is always better than the downside for bill clinton without a doubt. There has been a bit of downside. A little sort of cleanup duty i guess you might say. I think clinton still makes the case very effectively. Also, i thought was interesting, hes reminding people that Bernie Sanders has not been a democrat all that long. Once he becomes a democrat a little bit longer, which is code for not really a democrat, and he also said something just about an hour or so ago in flushing, out in queens, that he said, look, the people against Bernie Sanders, whenever you oppose anything that Hillary Clinton says, he says that some like dark forces are out there the. There are no dark forces out there. They agree almost on 93 . So hes try to get the sanders people to sort of calm down and say that Hillary Clinton is not corrupt. Hes eventually i think will be a key person in bringing these people together. Because people like bill clinton. Thats right, he was at 60 in the gallup poll about two months ago. I think hes at 58 . So hes gone down just a little bit but within the margin of error. I believe all of these spouses are assets to the campaign. The one thing i like about bill clinton is that he understands how to do double duty. Going out there every day to help secretary clinton get the message out there. But hes also helping democrats up and down the ballot. Remember, we have a big contested senate race, senate races all over the country, and bill clinton will be invaluable. Bernie sanders is a superdelegates. Hes a democrat. Hell probably support himself as a superdelegate because the state of vermont went overwhelmingly for him. Thats right, but im neutral. Donna brazile and jeff zeleny, duly noted. Well talk to you im sure in the next two weeks. Thank you very much. In just two days, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton face off in brooklyn for the next debate, this thursday, 9 00 p. M. Eastern, only here on cnn. Coming up, as the candidates prepare to converge upon california, the mayor of one city is drawing a proverbial line in the sand saying donald trump is not welcome in her community. Some say shes going a tad too far. Well talk to the mayor of West Hollywood live next. Were also anticipating an announcement from House Speaker paul ryan after weeks and weeks of speculation, he could ultimately be parachuted in and become the partys nominee at the convention. Well bring that to you live when it happens here on cnn. We believe tomorrow starts today. 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The mayor of southern californias West Hollywood has a message for that candidate. Keep your hate speech to yourself. Its very important that i protect our city and keep our city safe and that starts with the language that we hear. I wanted to make it very clear that donald trump, the kind of hateful rhetoric, the kind of violence that his supporters are perpetrating and that he supporting from his podium, is not welcome in our community. And here she is, West Hollywood mayor Lindsay Horvath joining me now. We just heard you spell it out, but here live on cnn, you know, you wrote him an open letter saying his politics arent welcome in West Hollywood. What is the biggest reason why you dont want mr. Trump there . You know, West Hollywood is a very diverse community, were over 40 lgbt. We have russianspeaking immigrants, some of whom were concentration camp survivors. Were the first declared prochoice city in america. Our city is very diverse. Were very open. Were very welcoming. And thats the kind of community we want to continue to be. And the way that donald trump has used hate speech, his violent tactics and systemically targeting people for their religion, for their country of origin, for their gender, is not the kind of behavior, not the kind of language that we want in our community. I hear you on your own opinion, but as far as, you know, legal grounds, if the Trump Campaign were to want to come to West Hollywood, obviously they need to apply for a hpermit. Do you have the authority to say no . Not everyone who comes to the state needs to apply for the permit and were not greeting mr. Trump at the border with our sheriffs department. This isnt about free speech, this is about hate speech. We dont want violent tactics. The kind of violent tactics mr. Trump himself has encouraged and his supports continue to use. In response to my letter, his supports have written to me saying theyre going to gut me like a fish. They sent me videos of dead fetus parts. Theyve used racial slurs. Targeting members of my community that make our community rich. Our diversity is something we celebrate. We dont apoll joiz for it, we celebrate it. Thats the kind of community we are and thats the kind of community we want to create. Wow that is disgusting, some of the imagery. There is obviously freedom of expression. In addition to that, West Hollywood City Attorney Michael Jenkin says, reiterating the fact your opinion, quote, the city would consider an application from the Trump Campaign no differently than any other campaign. Would you be willing because of how you so passionately feel, would you be willing to take an action that could be considered unconstitutional here . The city is going to follow the law. This isnt about free speech, this is about hate speech. We are able and willing to exercise our voice and use our First Amendment rights to say we want to elevate the discourse here. Were demanding civil discourse. Thats not too much to ask. Certainly not of someone whos running for the highest office in the land. He should respect the office by treating it with the respect that it deserves. So your argument being you say it is hate speech, therefore, youre saying no would, thus, be constitutional, is that your argument . What im saying is we will follow the law, but it is fully within our right to say that certain behavior, certain language, isnt welcome. Some communities may roll out the red carpet for mr. Trump. Were rolling up the carpet. Okay. Mayor Lindsay Horvath, mayor of West Hollywood, california, thank you. Thank you. Coming up next, speaker of the u. S. House of representatives paul ryan speaking, setting the record straight, he says he will tell everyone again he does not want to run for president , but could there still be a chance for an upset at the Gop Convention . Well discuss that. Also, president obama admits the biggest mistake of his presidency. Does it help or hurt Hillary Clintons chances at the white house . Well discuss. You premium like clockwork. Month after month. Year after year. Then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. Yeah. Surprise. Your Insurance Company tells you to pay up again. Why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it . If you have Liberty Mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. Sign up to immediately lower your deductible by 100. And keep lowering it 100 annually, until its gone. Then continue to earn that 100 every year. Theres no limit to how much you can earn and this savings applies to every vehicle on your policy. Call to learn more. Switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Our most advanced formula for joint health and comfort. Cosamin proven by more research than any leading joint supplement. Youre watching cnn, im bro brooke baldwin. Were waiting to hear from House Speaker paul ryan who is expected to shut down once and for all, all speculation he might at the last minute be chosen as the republican nominee for president at the convention. Hes set to speak. We are told he plans to say he will not be the nominee under any circumstances. So stand by for that. Meantime, one candidate vying for the nomination is laying out his quote unquote two paths. Help says americans can choose this election year. Ohio Governor John Kasich says it all boils down to his path that is, quote, steep but well trod and solid. Or the other offered up by his opponents that would lead america down a path of darkness. Here he was. Some will feed off the fears and the anger that is felt by some of us and exploited, feed their own insatiable desires for fame or attention. That could drive america down into a ditch and not make us great again. With that, let me bring in republican strategist lisa booth. Shes also the president of strategies and contributor to the washington examiner. Also, joe boreli, cochair of trumps new york campaign. Welcome to both of you. Hi, brooke. Lisa to you first, just hearing governor kasich, you know, he didnt name check any of his rivals per se but it was very clear who and what he was talking about. Do you think with what he said today, does that move the dial for him whatsoever . It doesnt. I mean, look, governor kasich has been trying to position himself as sort of this consensus candidate. The alternative to donald trump and cruz but thats not happened yet. If you lock at tok at the elect process, the only state hes won is ohio. So i dont think that message is being heard. You also have to look at what the appetite of the republican electorate has been thus far. If you look at exit polls, its clear that Republican Voters want an antiestablishment candidate, that they are upset at the Republican Party and, you know, so i just dont think his message is really falling on deaf ears right now. On that, cue the question about donald trump. Joe, turn to you on that, because, you know, we talk about new polling number, massive numbers coming out of this poll. Hes at 60 which is i think the biggest number ive seen thus far here in new york. Headed into next weeks primary, commanding 43point lead over his republican rivals. Theres a but to this. When it companies to general elections head to head, he is trounced by both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. That has to be concerning for you looking into a potential general election match. Right, look, theres no caught that some polls indicate donald trump will have a difficult time against hillary but there was an ap poll out that indicated he was in a tie in pennsylvania. So there is some okay, but what about this poll . This poll certainly doesnt say that but the real battle for donald trump right now is make sure he gets enough delegates to secure the nomination. After the convention in november, we will have enough time to sort of move the needle and ideally take on hillary in the general. Is that doesnt worry you, even just looking ahead to november, assuming he gets that magic number that he doesnt fare well with either of them . Its not necessarily worrying. A lot of people have focused on his unfavorables. If you look at Hillary Clintons unfavorables, you dont see her that far behind. If trump has a national problem, i say to you Hillary Clinton also has a national problem. Looking at lisa, reading this piece, this interview, donald trump did with usa today, he talks about potential picks for Vice President. I think its interest a number of the names he threw out are people hes criticized being scott walker, marco rubio and he also mentioned john kasich. Those are all good choices for him. He has said he needs someone who is in politics, who has that federal experience, and i absolutely do think he does. If you look at his campaign so far, his achilles heel potentially, has been so far, is the organizational structural, the failure to be organized. Thats part of being a novice candidate. Hes not done this before. Hes not run for political office. Hes flirted with the idea but he hasnt actually done it and moved forward with the process. I think he needs someone that can help navigate for him and also someone who will help deliver a key state. You look at ohio, florida, wisconsin, pivotal states to republicans potential winning the white house so i think he needs someone with that political experience to help guide him. Joe what do you think, those names floated . I think a lot of people right now are potentially saying they wouldnt be considered as potential nominees. I think thats the thing that always happens going into a convention. For vp picks you mean . Right, i think any one of those would be someone who can bring a positive experience and some positive momentum. Even though marco rubio day one back in the senate said no way, no how, not anybodys vp, minds can still be changed . I think minds can be changed. Thats traditionally what people have said going into national conventionings. Joe boreli, thank you. Lisa, thank you. Coming up next, president obama opening up about what he says is the biggest mistake of his entire presidency. We will talk to Fareed Zakaria next. They sato make a sunscreenle. You can apply to wet skin. A wrinkle cream that works in one week. And a shampoo that washes away the residue hair Care Products can leave behind. But we did it. 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The most common side effects are headache, diarrhea, and dizziness. All my life, hes protected me. Ask their doctor about oncedaily namenda xr and learn about a free trial offer at namenedaxr. Com. Is better for your skin than wearing no makeup at all . Neutrogena® cosmetics. With vitamins and antioxidants. Now with foundations in shades for more skin tones. Do you have the courage to stay up all night . Because this is our time the greatest tv week of our lives ladies and gentlemen, in the business of bingewatching, sleep is for the week so i want you ready to order takeout, every single night now are you with me . To awesomeness to watchathon big is back. Xfinity watchathon week starts april 18. The greatest collection of shows free with xfinity on demand. President barack obama, 40 weeks remaining in office, getting quite candid about a number of issues including what he says was the biggest mistake of his presidency. Worse mistake. Probably failing to plan for the day after what i think was the right thing to do in intervening in libya. Joining me now, Fareed Zakaria. Welcome, sir. Always a pleasure. Jumping off what he told fox news in the atlantic last month, the president referred to the troubled state as a bleep show. Said the u. S. Had no business attempting to govern in that region. Were politically minded in this race for the white house, Hillary Clinton served as the secretary of state, was quite involved with what happened in libya. Does what the president said there as his biggest mistake affect her negatively moving forward in the race . First, i think it was a mistake for the president. The correct answer to that question should be, im going to let historians decide what my biggest mistake is. Because hes still a player. Hes still dealing with all these people. Its rather odd, at the very least, wait until youre out of office and write your memoir. Hes now going to have to deal with the very people whom hes talking about. So theres something odd, almost too frank. Its understandable you want to be frank. But you cant do it while youre still playing the game. You wait until you get off the field. I dont think it hurts hillary though. I think fundamentally, anything that gets at the substance of these issues, ironically, or strangely, helps Hillary Clinton. How. Because it reminds people she was the secretary of state for four years. It brings up her clear competence and knowledge on these issues. She can talk about these with great depth. Compare that to the other side. I mean, you have donald trump who doesnt remember, doesnt know what the triad is, cant remember what countries hes dealing with. You know, the contrast between the qualifications of Hillary Clinton and the lack thereof, particularly of the republican frontrunner, get accent rated the more the discussion is about substan substance. Thats interesting thats your take on that. I wanted to ask you, also, whats happening in japan. U. S. Secretary of state john kerry, the highest ranking diplomat to visit hire sho jima peace park, ground zero for the bombs. Hes criticized for not issuing an apology. What do you make of the fact he was there and should he apologize . He should not apologize because its not a mistake. Its a difficult complicated choice. A perfect illustration of shermans great line war is hell, is probably saved japanese lives because the alternative to dropping the atomic bomb would have been an allout Ground Invasion of japan which would have cost enormous number of american lives, enormous numbers of japanese lives. Remember, without atomic bombs, we firebomb. The United States firebombed tokyo and killed tens of thousands of people. Essentially reduced tokyo to a wasteland. So thats the kind of thing that would have happened throughout japan if there hasnt been this incredible demonstration, in fact, terrible, terrible consequences. I do think its the right thing to show a kind of remorseful what happened in the sense that war is hell and these are terrible choices and i think that kerry phrased it in exactly that way. You know, obama, his administration, have been trying to push the envelope on these issues. Which is obamas view i think is very clear and i think hes articulated it a couple of times, its a good thing for the United States to reflect on its past. To acknowledge areas where there were mistakes made. It doesnt make us weaker, it make us stronger. In cuba, if youll remember, there was a moment where raul castro criticizes the u. S. And obama says, you know what, come at me, thats fine, were a strong country, we believe in introspection, selfcriticism. I think thats basically right choice. In hiroshima, i dont think a apology is necessary but certainly some reflection on what was clear lay dark day in the world. Make sure you watch fareed, 10 00 a. M. And 1 00 p. M. Sundays here on cnn. Coming up next, new videos bring new twists to the new shooting death of a former nfl football star. What they indicate and why the suspect in the shooting says he was, in fact, the victim of a crime. Also ahead, speaker of the u. S. House of representatives, paul ryan, due to set the record straight. Finally, finally he says, next hour, speaker ryan says emphatically he is not going to be the next president. But might there still be a chance for an upset at the convention for the republicans in cleveland . Well be right back. Tomorrow st. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. 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Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. We are getting some breaking news. Just in to cnn. A controversial new bill is headed to the desk of the tennessee governor. Just one of a swath of similar protection bills being pass and rejected across the country. Would essentially allow therapists and counselors to legally refuse service to lgbt people based upon religious objections. As soon as we have moshre, wel bring it to you. May provide key new details of the moments just before former nfl star will smith was shot and killed. Here is the new surveillance video. Shows this new orleans street just before the shooting. Appears to show a mercedes suv rear ending a hummer. Just as the hummer starts there to pull off the road, the mercedes drives away. Then a short time later, police say a hummer driven by the shooting suspect, cordial hayes, rear ends smiths suv. They say hayes shoots smith multiple times, kills him, and then shoots smiths wife in the leg. The suspects lawyer is drawing attention to another new video in which a witness claims there was a second gun. He starts freaking out on this guy like, get out, i have a gun. Then hes like, i get one too. It is important to note police only found one gun at the scene. Im joined by the founder of son of the saint, an organization who provides mentoring and support service to young boys whose fathers have died or been jailed. Also the chief aide to tom benson who owns the saints. Wonderful to have you on. Thank you for having me. I was texting and this is how i got connected to you, a current player of the saints who was drafted with will smith in 04. He says the whole thing has been horrendous for the community. Youre there in new orleans. Tell me what the reactions been like. First, id like to give my condolences to the smith family but also the family of the accused shooter. But you know the community it just really hits home for us. We have a lot of violence in our city. But somebody who plays for the new orleans saints, you know, its a little close to home. A lot of people are going to wake up and actually do something. Well, i want to get to the do something bit in a moment, but, you know, talk about a visceral reaction. Weve heard from the saints head coach sean payton, he talked to usa today, railed against guns. This is what coach said. 200 years from now, theyre going to look back and say, what was that madness about . The idea we need them to fend off intruders. Thats some silly stuff were hanging on to. I hate guns. My question to you, as you work with young men in new orleans and we talk about, you know, in some pockets of violent culture, you know, what are the young men telling you in terms of whats happened with this former player and just in terms of settling an argument with a gun . Well, my boys have actually been called in and asked if kids were going to be in the program along with the accused killers sons, because in our program, thats what we have, boys who have lost their fathers to violence or longterm incarceration. Majority of our boys. So were dealing with a bigger issue and this is the symptom of it thats been going on for a long time in a lot of urban cities. Were dealing with poverty and were dealing with lack of education, lack of opportunity, broken homes. So this is nothing new. And so, you know, now we need to act on it and focus on the solutions. Talk about what youve done so far with, you know, your organization in terms of solutions, in terms of helping these young men not turn to violence. Well, for us, focusing on getting the boys at about middle school age and the boys are with us until they got their College Acceptance letter. We provide hope, vision and opportunity for the boys. These are boys that come in our program at a very delicate age and we also theyve also had a lot of trauma. And we provide a safe and secure place for them at our clubhouse in new orleans. We have about 45 boys in our program. Our oldest boy is actually at xavier university. The next graduate, just got accepted to the university of tampa. So we feel that our formula is working. Our boys, they receive counseling. Tutoring. They get exposed to a variety of things that they otherwise probably wouldnt. Its really consistent and positive messaging is what were giving them. We were talking in the commercial, you know, i dont know if you will be in touch with will smiths kids or the kids of mr. Hayes, but if you were to help them or even offer advice what would you say . Well, for me personally when i first heard about it, i immediately thought about the kids. Specifically the boys. Because its what i went through. My father died when i was 3 years old. And so, you know, there are going to be a lot of questions you know from the boys, you know, what if they dent go out that night or what if they made a left turn versus a right turn. Theyre going to see pictures of them, video. A lot of his teammates are going to talk about how great of a guy he was. These are things that are going to be hard to hear. You know, its really letting them to grieve over there, really understand it. I feel they will need counseling. But really its the support of the city and understanding from their friends that theyre going to need. We just need to be really patient and let them digest this just as much as we are in the community. So yeah i mean, were there for them. We welcome them. And want to be a part of the change. Our hearts are with all of you in new orleans. Again, sunny lee, thank you. If you want more information in new orleans, the organization is son of a saint. Thank you. Hour two. Here we go. Youre watching cnn. Im brooke baldwin. Breaking political news any moment now. We will see the speaker of the u. S. House of representatives paul ryan making what he probably hopes will be his final move to end all this talk about his running for president in 2016. According to aides, speaker ryan will give an official statement at the Committee Office ruling himself out totally of this nomination. Lets first begin our coverage this hour with senior political reporter manu raju live there at the rnc office with those details. Were minutes away from the House Speaker. Listen, he said it before over and over, i dont want this, i dont want this. What will he say differently this go around . Hes probably said it close to two dozen times but that has not stopped the speculation that maybe he is open to doing it, particularly if there is a deadlocked convention. Last week in israel when he was on an official trip there. He has said repeatedly he will not be a candidate for president. Something he wants to make crystal clear. This is something he will not accept if there is a possibility of a deadlock convention. Things he wants to focus on is saving the House Republican majority. Something that some folks fear could be increasingly at risk, particularly if donald trump or ted cruz is the republican nominee. Every time that paul ryan has done something, raising money in new york for instance, a news story came out yesterday showing that maybe hes doing something to run for president. He wants to end questions. Saying that he will not be candidate for president. Of course, hes chairman of the convention and this could be a fight, a messy floor fight, and he wants to make clear he not doing anything to be that lastminute candidate. So folks dont think hes being neutral in case it does devolve into a messy fight on the floor, brooke. You also have some exclusive reporting about looking ahead to the convention in cleveland. You are reporting the number of Top Republicans wont be there. Who, why. Thats right, brooke, a number of republicans dont want to be associated with any sort of mess at the Republican Convention. Remember, donald trump actually said that possibly if he doesnt get the nomination there could be riots potentially. Republicans are up for reelection. Are saying they dont necessarily want to be associated with that. We talked to some who say stay away from the convention, worry about campaigning back home. Kelly ayotte out of New Hampshire and richard burke, North Carolina, both of them are up for reelection. Both said it is increasingly unlikely. I ran into jeb bush, he said no. So youre really seeing republicans start to stay away from what could be an ugly scene in cleveland, brooke. Manu raju, thank you so much. Were watching to see paul ryan momentarily. Joining me now, a mega panel on this tuesday. I have gloria borj, cnn political reporter david chalian, cnn political commentator margaret hoover, republican strategist, and in another screen, chief correspondent john king. And lou gargilo, the Trump Campaign cochair in rockingham county, New Hampshire. To all of you, welcome. Were going to have a big chat here covering all things politics. Lets just begin, staring at the three of you all. Hello, by the way. With paul ryan, how many times does he have to say i dont want to be president . 19. Washington examiner totaled all the times. 19 times he is not going to run for president on are president or do anything. The thing is, republicans, i think, do feel lucky to have paul ryan as part of the leadership because he can actually inject hes going to play a role at the convention besides being this chair of the convention, hes trusted amongst all of the clans of the Republican Party, all of these factions, and if we have an open and contested convention, hes the one guy that everybody trusts will be able to help make sure that the rules are enforced. He wants to call the balls and the strikes is what he said. Transparentally and fairly for all parties involved. Why is he doing it now . Why today . What hes trying to do here is buy himself a couple of months. Buy himself some time to do his day job as speaker between now and the convention. He knows what he says today is not going to be the end of this. 19 times. Im not big on predictions. I guarantee this is not the last time hes going to have to say this. He will have to say it again. What he hopes to do is to be able to put a pin in this conversation, focus on what hes doing in the house right now until he gets a little closer to the convention and he knows and his team knows this is going to all be chatter again as we head into cleveland. You know, i think as many times as he said no, as you point out, there has been a little bit of a mixed message coming out of the ryan camp. Hes got some great people around him who have a very robust social media presence. They keep sending out videos. Paul ryans doing this, paul ryans doing that. Makes you think, hold on a second. Wait a minute. As did john boehner before him, i might add. Front page New York Times story about paul ryan. Out there raising money for the party and differentiating himself from the top two contenders in the republican president ial race on a whole host of issues, not the least of which is immigration, i might add, and trade. So you have the ryan is differentiating himself, out there with the robust media presence, front page of the New York Times. You put one and one and one together and you get three. And what he is saying, huhuh, its not three, im not running. John king what say you, sir . I agree with everything said. Speaker ryan is a very thoughtful person. He is a very ambitious person. Im told, brooke, he and those close to him have looked at this moment and they essentially view the Republican Party, these are my words, at a Humpty Dumpty moment. You know how it goes. Is sitting up there on the wall. They think if you have a contested convention and its a huge fight and if donald trump doesnt get the nomination of the contested convention that Humpty Dumptys going to have a great fall and all the speaker aers horses and all the speakers men if you follow where im going here cannot be put together again, thank you very much. Think of the drama. Wouldnt you love to be the person, the white knight at the contested convention . However, speaker ryan listens to donald trump. The people around speaker ryan listens to donald trump. They think if somebody else wins the nomination donald trump is going to say i got ripped off and hes going around the country this year and making it nearly impossible if not went, hasnt that been the narrative . If youre paul ryan, you want to be president some day, youre thinking very rarely does the same party keep the same office after two terms. It rarely happens. What almost always happens, its a oneterm presidency. Paul ryan is thinking 2020 will be a lot cleaner than 2016. I am told not too far back, 1988. This is paul ryan then. Roll it. Id just like to tell mr. Ryan that i really appreciate him as a christian. Wish he was representative for louisiana. If he ever runs for president , he has my vote. Thanks for the call. Im not old enough. Thats right. Okay, i dont know how old he would have been there. Not 35 apparently. A young member of congress, you know, he was a jack kemp protegee and a very young member of congress. And became in many ways an accidental speak, right . You know, could he become an accidental president . I think thats sort of one step, you know, one step too far. But ryan, to johns point, i think does want to be president one day. I know mitt romney wants paul ryan to be president one day. But i think ryan believes he has to run for it if he wants to be president. And this isnt the time. Parachuting in, three months to go his role is to save the house. To make sure that the majority sticks in the house of representatives and that can be a tough job. Its not his moment. I think he knows it. His team knows it. Part of it is, what weve seen with trump, we have two competing factions in the Republican Party. You have the faction that really believes being a Pure Movement conservative is going to win the election. Then you have this emergent trump faction which is expressing the grievances of working class republicans but at the moment is manifesting itself in protectionism and isolationalism and nativism. Anybody who comes out of that convention nominated is going to be badly damaged. Theres no way you can run a National Election where you can demographically get the kind of people you need to win in three months. Especially if youre a white republican. Its just not going to happen. So he would be damaged goods if he were the nominee. Go ahead. Margaret made a good point before. Ryan has touch points in each of those factions you just described. Which is why, again, this may not be his moment, but you can see down the road why he believes that whatever kind of Republican Party does get pieced together after the 2016 election is one that hes going to have his hand is going to be able to reach in many portions of it. Mr. Humpty dumpty, john king, on trump, i know everyone here has seen these staggering numbers from the new york one poll. I dont know if ive ever seen this number. 60 . Then kasich and on down, cruz. In the meantime, he does in the same poll, hes trounced by Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head to heads come the general. How do you read all that . Number one, no one should be surprised that the Democratic Candidates overwhelmingly lead in new york state in the general election even though donald trump is from new york. Thats not really about trump, thats about new york state is a blue state come november. What do i read about that 60 . There are two other polls out today that have him above 50. If donald trump is above 50 statewide and he can carry that through most, if not all, the congressional districts, then donald trump is back on track. A narrow chance but not impossible. Help has the only chance to clinch before the Republican National convention. If he gets all 95 or if he can get 75 or 80 of those, it improves his position, going on to maryland, to delaware, to connecticut, to rhode island, to rest of april, all states where donald trump is favored. All states where john kasich does not have the organization. Trump is the only one with a chance. Trumps in a lot of organizational trouble at the state conventions. Trump has gotten out hustled by cruz on a lot of levels. However, he still has the best, the only chance to clinch before the convention and it looks like new york is going to get him a bit of wind at his back as he goes through the rest of the month. Were seeing movement in the room, this is the rnc office, were waiting for House Speaker ryan to once again say no thank you, i do not want to be president. At least here in 2016. Quick break. Well take it live on the other side. [plumber] i need to be where the pipes are. So i use quickbooks and run my entire business from the cloud. 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This is the Republican National Committee Offices in our nations capital. Paul ryan reiterating what we have heard him say 19 times that unequivocally he does not want to be president , at least here in 2016. Thought that he would be a name that would be parachuted in, in the case of a contested convention for the republicans in cleveland come july. So, you know, interesting the timing today, you know, were talking to our entire panel. David, to you, in like half a minute, the timing, why today . Why today, because as gloria was talking about before, a lot of things were bubbling up. That New York Times story is one that put it over the edge. There was a lot of talk about it. It was becoming a distraction for paul ryan and it was becoming a distraction from the 2016 race. And so i think why today is listen, he has work that hes got to get done. There arent that many legislative days left in this election year. Hes got to actually move the ball forward a little bit in the house. Ryan, foregive me, let me go to you, i know you worked with him in 2012. What do you make of why, you know, he needs to come out today and unequivocally say this . Well, i agree with david, this is becoming a distraction. The speaker has a busy legislative calendar ahead of him. Theres a lot of other things he has to get done in a short period of time and the repeated questions about running for president were becoming a distraction. Hes not running. Help said he said it a number of times. I think this kind of official event will hopefully from his per pektispective pop the trial balloon others were raising on his behalf. He plays a pivotal role at the convention come july, john, explain that. Hes the speaker. Hes going to run the proceedings. He wants to be viewed as an honest broker. He also knows that donald trump is going to be sitting down at a big media event tonight at the town hall with our Anderson Cooper and he knows trump has been saying this is rigged against him. Paul ryan wants to be clear if he gets to cleveland, hes going to do an honest job running the convention. Hes going to count votes and its going to be done transparentally. He does not want to be tainted by this. Does it rule out if trump cant win on the first ballot and if people go looking for a white knight that his rain will come up again, of course not. He has such broad appeal across the Republican Party. But to everybodys point, he has a budget to pass. Hes the highest ranking republican in the land right now. He has a day job. He has a day job and its an important one. You know, gloria, john brings up an interesting point. What weve been hearing, the sound bite about how this whole thing is rigged. Beyond paul ryan coming out and saying no thank you, how does he address the noise around this race . How does ryan . Ryan, ryan. What hes trying to do and hes said in a bunch of interviews that he wants to be switzerland. He says he wants to be the place where people can go and be the peacemaker within the party. I think he wants to be seen as somebody, as john was just saying, who understands the rules, and somebody everybody trusts. So if there is all this noise and chaos which we expect there probably will be if you head into a contested convention, then paul ryan wants to be seen as that switzerland, that honest broker, who can talk to all of the candidates, all of their staffs, all of the delegates, and figure out how to come out with a unified party as much as he can possibly do that, because whats at stake is not only the president ial election, because as we were talking before, its control of the congress. Thats very important to him personally. Switzerlands just keeping the peace. He also wants to put forward a positive substantive agenda for the Republican Party that stands in contrast to what we hear is going on now in terms of the Republican Party so i think what hes going to talk about today is hes going to talk about what he is going to do in 2016. As the Republican Party needs an agenda to deal with the working class. An agenda hes been very interested since 2012 in a poverty agenda. In sort of recreating a c compassionate conservatism. He also has not shied away from playing the scold at times in this race. He has on a couple of occasions gone before the press corps on capitol hill and expressed his displeasure in the tone of the race at certain times or put his feelings out there that he thought the candidates maybe went too far in certain circumstances. So he may not shy away from that. He may have some words here also about, yes, hes not going to be in the race. I also think hes going to have words for those candidates remaining in the race about how they should proceed. I think about the mitt romney speech a month or so ago from the university of utah. I dont know if hell take it that far as the former governor did. It will be interesting to see the scolding, the switzerland role. Here he is, House Speaker paul ryan. No, im being told two minutes. So its mitt romney moment. And hearing all this also reminds me of john kasichs speech a little bit from earlier today. We have some sound. Lets listen to john kasich. Some who feed off of the fears and the anger that is felt by some of us and exploited feed their own insatiable desires for fame or attention. That could drive america down into a ditch and not make us great again. To me, ryan williams, let me bring you in, hes saying unlike some whach weve heard from some of these other republican candidates. We can work through this, we can embrace government. What did you make of governor kasich . Hes trying to lay out a rationale for his continued candidacy. There isnt one at this point. Hes hoping for a miracle at a contested convention and thats not going to happen. The reality is the nominee is probably going to be trump or cruz, its not going to be kasich. The only question now is whether or not donald trump gets the delegates he needs before the convention or not. At this point, it looks like its getting narrower. A big win in new york may put him back on track. If it does go to a contested convention, ted cruz is very well positioned given his ground game to have delegates go his way on a second, third and fourth ballot. Hes doing a very good job right now. Hes earning it if he gets to a contested convention. There he is, paul ryan. Afternoon. I just returned from a weeklong trip from the middle east to meet with our allies and our partners there. We had some important conversations about isis. The Security Threat in that region and those around the world. But ill tell you, it is really amazing how our politics is followed so closely overseas. I was asked about it everywhere. Im also aware while i was overseas, there was more speculation that someone other than the current candidates will emerge as our partys nominee. I want to put this to rest once and for all. As you know, i have stayed out of this race and i have remained neutral as chairman of the Republican Convention, my job is to ensure there is integrity in the process, that the rules are followed by the rule book. That means it is not my job to tell delegates what they should do. Ive got a message to relay today. We have too much work to do in the house to allow this speculation to swirl or to have my motivations questioned. So let me be clear, i do not want, nor will i accept, the nomination for our party. Let me speak directly to the delegates on this. If no candidate has a majority on the first ballot, i believe that you should only choose from a person who is actually participating in the primary. Count me out. I simply believe that if you want to be the nominee for our party, to be the president , you should actually run for it. I chose not to do this. Therefore, i should not be considered, period, end of story. I just think it would be wrong to go any other way. So let me say, i am not going to be our partys nominee. Ill also be clear about something else. Not running does not mean im going to disappear. When i accented this speakership, i did so on the condition i would do things differently than i have done in the past. For one, i made it clear this would be a policy and communications focused speakership. Secondly, i made clear last year in 2015 before the primarys even started that we would be putting together a policy agenda and offer a clear choice to the american people. Thats what i told my colleagues i would do. And that is exactly what i have been doing. Look, there is a big debate going on right now. Its about what kind of country were going to be. As speaker of the house, i believe that i have not just an opportunity but an obligation to advance that debate. As ive talked about this before, politics today, it tends to drift towards personality contests, not policy contests. Insults get inked more than ideas. We still owe it to the country to show what we would do if given a mandate from the people. We have an obligation to give a clear picture, a clear choice, to talk about solutions. Thats why ive been giving speeches. That is why ive been communicating a vision for what our party and our country can be. That is why im going to continue doing just that. I believe we can once again be an optimistic party. That is defined by our belief in the limitless possibility of our people. We want a party defined by solutions. By being on the side the people. We want to take our principles and apply them looks like we lost him. Lets try it again. Not the well connected, a strong and focused military, a Health Care System that promotes choice and flexibility, a secure boarrde border, a government. You know, this great idea that the condition of your birth doesnt determine the outcome. Thats the kind of agenda we building right now and that is the kind of an agenda that we are going to release in the next few months. This job provides a platform for our country. I am content on using it. I am content on using this platform not for me but for my house colleagues and for those who believe that conservativism holds the keys to a competent america, this is a Critical Role that has to be play and i am in a position to fulfill that role. That gives a clear and comb telling choice to our fellow citizens so we can earn the mandate we need to get things right, to fix our problems, to get our country back on track, thank you. Speaker ryan, speaker ryan. A lot of people said this is what he said about becoming speaker. What do you say to people who continue to be skeptical of you . Luke, those are apples and oranges. Being speaker of the house is a far cry from being the president. I was always a congressman. I was asked to take a responsibility within congress that ive already been serving in. That is entirely different than getting the nomination for president of the United States by your Party Without even running for the job. So completely speaker ryan what happens if this goes to the second ballot and what happens the chair of the convention, adhering to the rule book put your name i will not allow my name. I am opposed to my name being put in place. Look let me answer your second question. The rules committee will decide what the rules are, but i would encourage those delegates to put in place a rule that says you can only nomination someone who actually ran for the job. Does that mean you think that only the three candidates remaining will be your partys nominee . Ill leave it up to the delegates to decide that. I just think i really believe if you want to be president , you should run for president. And when we select a nominee, we should select people who actually ran for the job. Say it again all right. That was pretty short and sweet. House Speaker Paul Ryan saying essentially to be president you should run for it. Saying to the delegates there, maybe you need to add a little rule in your rule book come cleveland in july. Just kind of cutting through it for you. I have our ateam whos been listening to paul ryan. Gloria, thoughts . I tonight thidont think we parse his words. Pretty simple. I do not want nor will i accept the nomination. He also went a step further and said he would encourage delegates to approve a rule that would say that you cant nominate anybody who hasnt actually run for the presidency. So take out the white knight scenario completely. So i dont think theres any questioning why paul ryan do you think they actually will . Create the rule . I dont know. Listen, the way that works, he recommends the rule, then the rules committee of the rnc needs to approve it, recommend it to the Convention Committee and then the whole floor of the delegates to prove it. By the way that probably should have been in his written remarks. It was not in his delivered remarks. He said the only way to make sure it happens is to make sure its in the rules. As we all know, the rules for the convention have not been accepted. They are authorsed a week before the convention. Nobody can control the dell gas. But what hes saying is i encourage them to do this. Hes clear on his intentions but what we need to do is make sure that the delegates do it. I thought it was interesting it he was in the middle east last week. I was on the uss harry truman for two days and i have to tell you that every single person, every american at least following every bit of this election and these candidates. That is the front line of the war on terror over there. It was interesting he opened up that whole thing by saying theyre watching us. Its incredibly true. I was in toronto for the nba allstar week, everybody in canada wants to know about it. You have a lot of International Visitors in washington for different events. I run into them and the first thing they ask is about donald trump or Bernie Sanders. Sometimes they have some choice language about what is going on in our election. Look, its a great story here in the United States. But it is a global story. Speaker ryan knows that maybe his staff is trying to promote him as speaker. A lot of those videos, other things theyve done, as gloria and david were discussing earlier, have created the impression hes running a Shadow Campaign for president. Look, take the man at his word. But if we get to a contested convention, as gloria said, he wants to be switzerland. Im not sure if we get three, four, five ballots in, hes not going to wish he was in switz switzerland. Good one. But well be happy, well be happy four or five ballots in. Okay, lou, foregive me, i just want to make sure now were getting to you. Now, trump is your man, and we heard speaker ryan say specifically insults are getting more ink than ideas. He didnt name names, but what were you thinking about when you heard that . I was thinking that speaker ryan made a great decision today to come out, up front, stated his positions, stated what he was planning to do, gave some guidance. P i think to the candidates. Voicing his concerns. But i think, too, speaker ryans a pragmatist. I think he realizes that even if there was a contested convention, even if his name was entered into the nomination, he would have a very tough time with both the Trump Delegates and the cruz delegates and the people, the millions and millions of people who supported mr. Trump in winning. So why put his future opportunity at stake in a race that he most likely couldnt win . And if ryan is looking towards 2020 or 2024, hes done a fantastic thing for his future opportunities. Ryan williams, what do you think . Look, i think this is why i think speaker ryan demonstrated why people wanted him to run for president. He was an adult. He talked about policy. A Vision Forward for the country. It was a great speech. He also made it very clear which hed already done before hes not running for president. This is not his year. Hes not going to interfere. He does not want any talk of the party that some have put out that hes going to be the candidate. Its not happening. He made it clear once and for all. And he can get back to his day job as speaker. Trying to pass the budget and all the other things on his agenda. Go ahead. I think what paul ryan would like to do and margaret was talking about this earlier is he would like to be the person who actually sets the agenda for the party. I mean, he is at odds, say, with donald trump. Paul ryans a big budget guy. Wants to fix entitlements. Cares about that. And you have donald trump saying he wants to preserve Social Security the way it is. Among other things. Well, they disagree, they disagree. Polar opposites. They do. And so on issue after issue the question about muslims coming into the country, the temporary ban, he cape out and disagreed. I think what ryan would like to do is set an agenda that his candidates can run on. If they dont love donald trump or ted cruz or john kasich, whoever the nominee is, then their can be the ryan plan and they can say to their constituents, im running on the ryan plan. And he may not be running but this is what i believe. He needs to give them a place to go if they cant fully sign on as a candidate. Gloria makes a great point. This is the flirtation that conservatives and republicans have had with the Third Party Candidate thats sort of an independent protest candidate in the event that donald trump gets it because the effect of a donald trump nomination on the down ballot. Look at ask rob portman or kelly ayotte or any of the other seven blue state republican senators who are up to lose their seats because people are going to come out so strongly, they feel, in their states against donald trump and the top of the ticket does hurt them. If speaker ryan can say, this is what the Republican Party stands for, not what youre hearing from potential nominee trump, that could serve a productive leadership role. It is almost impossible in a president ial year to disassociate yourself. It is very, very hard to do. Theyre running campaigns of split balloting, thats whats happening. I think its somewhat easier for senators than house members. True. It is a very tough thing to do. Weve seen that time and again. Also, remember, democrats would say, hey, we have a playbook, we know how to run against the ryan plan, weve been doing that for several cycles. They have a playbook unlike they dont have playbook for donald trump at all right now but the poverty agenda for example is something hes been pushing now which is very much like kasich in a way talking about poverty. I think obviously even though the top of the tickette is what matters the most if you run away from the top of the ticket, which some candidates do, they have to have somewhere to go. Particularly if theyre in the house. Hes my speaker. I voted for him for speaker and this is what i agree with. It gives them a little bit of running room i think. The president is the most important person running, but you want to offer him a lot of options to your candidates if you want to keep him, right . Margaret mentioned kelly ayotte. How we also learned a number of Top Republicans will not go to the convention in cleveland, kelly ayotte will be one of them. Jeb bush isnt going. They all have different reasons. How big of a deal is that . Huge deal. Theyre afraid of the mess, if they are riots, disruption, even if its not violence, that they dont want a picture of them inside the auditorium. Kelly ayotte is part of this, shes part of donald trump. They dont want those ads number one. They think its safe to keep your distance from something thats unpredictable, something thats messy. Stay home, cater to the local voters, be the smart one to do that. Just stay home and stay away from it. Paul ryan doesnt have that choice. As speaker, hes agreed to be the speaker and to broker. So those candidates will make those decisions. Paul ryan will say this is more of a senate calculation than house calculation. Paul ryan and Mitch Mcconnell will tell those who think they should stay at home, please, stay at home, and then paul ryan will do the best job he can at the convention. To the point youve been discussing with those smart people next to you, paul ryan gets this, he gets it. He has a difficult job at the convention. Hes going to try to do the best thing possible. Hes already had one conversation with donald trump. If trump is the nominee, he will try to get him to accept as much of the house platform. And then hes going to try to protect the house majority. Paul ryan thinks the decision is the best to protect his members in the house and best to protect his future. John king, margaret hoover, lou, thank you all so much. Thank you, brooke. Coming up next, this years Republican Convention looking more and more like it will be one for the history books and we have the woman who writes them with us. We have president ial historian with me live, talking about what to expect in cleveland and looking back to learn about the present. If you have moderate to severe Rheumatoid Arthritis like me, and youre talking to your rheumatologist about a biologic. This is humira. This is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. This is humira giving me new perspective. Doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. Humira works for many adults. It targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. 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Theres no limit to how much you can earn and this savings applies to every vehicle on your policy. Call to learn more. Switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. As topic of the Republican Convention heats up, the debate is really turn to technicalities. And the number of votes each candidate has gotten versus the number of delegates they are racking up. Youve heard donald trump call the system, his word is rigged. He told his supporters theyre getting ripped off. Points out he has nearly 2 million more votes than ted cruz. Yet if trump doesnt capture the 1,237 delegates before the Republican Convention in july, he could lose the nomination. So joining me now, the president ial historian and pulitzer surprise winning author doris kerns goodwin, thank you for being here. We talk about this every four years, the electoral college, you know, given the history of the system, do you think these checks and balances, the delegates, the superdelegates are they there for a reason . I do think so. The party used to be able to control the conventions. If this were 50 years ago, the Party Leaders probably would have chosen paul ryan as the person who can bring consensus to the party itself. But people felt this is us voting, so that tension still exists between the party wanting to make sure it can bring out a candidate who can win in the fall and the ordinary people who voted in the primaries feeling our vote should count. And thats where the super delegates come in. Thats part of the power they reserved with the superdelegates. And they reserved the power if on the first ballot the first person doesnt get it then people are free in some places to vote whomever they want and then the deals will get made. The deals, oh, the deals. The last contested convention took place in 1976. It was gerald ford, ronald reagan. They failed to clinch that nomination, that magic number. Just reading about it, melees in the hall, kissinger was counting drunk delegates. What happened then . Well, what happened was that ford started out winning the primaries. Then reagan came in and had a really good string of wins before the election so you had a split in the Republican Party between the conservatives represented by reagan and the more moderate forces recommended by ford. And the delegates were really mad at each other and they would fight each other in the hotel lobbies, as you were saying, they were drunk, there was an elephant that was supposed to be the symbol of the Republican Party, a 55foot inflatable elephant and it went up in the air and its stomach was ripped apart, almost like a metaphor. Eventually on the first ballot ford did win. Then reagan made this extraordinary speech and that was the beginning. From that time, from 76, we all know donald trump has hired veteran Paul Manafort who is now his convention manager. He helped lead fords floor operations, will be leading the delegate operation in cleveland. What kind of advantage, doris, do you think this will give mr. Trump . I think its a huge, huge thing, as he would say, in that whats happened in the delegate selection so far is that mr. Cruz has been much more sophisticated, had Party Organizers on the field to ring delegates out of some of those elections where trump thought he might have deserved them. Now having a veteran on the floor, suppose the first ballot doesnt produce the first majority. Its at that point when you make sure your trump people remain loyal, you make deals to make sure other people come to your side, and thats not something trump can know how to do, it has to be done by a loyal veteran and i think this man will be the one. Hes been there before. Party leaders know what it was like when they used to have more power and theyll try to exert it. But hell be trumps man fighting against some of those other Party Leaders. You say deals being done. What kind of deals on the side will be done . Well, you know, i think part of it will be hanging on who might become the Vice President , what state delegation some of the states have freedom aempt the first ballot, some have freedom right away. I think it will be if its really close, as it might be, individual rooms, everybody being visited in those rooms. You know, way back in 1912 when you had the Republican Party split in two between the sitting president taft and Teddy Roosevelt, the former president , people would be actually slugging each other in the lobbies. Theyd be hitting each other. Theyd be singing songs to drown out the other people. It was violent. There were thousands of policemen there, people arrested. Eventually the party split apart and Teddy Roosevelt said, as trump has been saying, its rigged, its not fair. He formed the third party, which is something people might predict might happen if trump doesnt get it. The lesson was theyll be a lot of votes as the Third Party Candidate. Split the Republican Party in two. And the democrats won as a minority party, they won over these two republicans fighting each other. Wow. Hopefully we learned our lessons from the past. Please come back, please come back, as we look ahead id be glad to. The history part is fun. Its fascinating. Thank you so much. Well talk again. Meantime, reminder, donald trump and his family will take to the stage tonight in new york. Its a town hall format. Its moderated by Anderson Cooper. So tune in for that. Tomorrow night, the cruz family will be interviewed as well. Both ted and heidi cruz. Both begin at 9 00 eastern only here on cnn. Coming up next, the cozy relationship between Hillary Clinton and donald trump before they were political rivals. Find out what is in the 500 documents just released by the clinton library. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data could be under attack. With the help of the at t network, a network that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Hes happy. Ts with him . Your familys finally eating vegetables thanks to our birds eye voila skillet meals. And they only take 15 minutes to make. Ahh birds eye voila so veggie good its everything youve ialways wanted. And you work hard to keep it that way. Sometimes. Maybe too hard. Get claim rateguard® from allstate. It helps keep your homeowners rate from going up just because of a claim. So protect your home and your rates. Talk to a local allstate agent and discover how much more their personal service can do for you. Bill clinton and donald trump, they are political adversaries now but a trove of newly released documents reveals a long history between the two power brokers. So, cnn politics reporter Jeremy Diamond has been digging and digging through all of these documents now provided today by the clinton president ial library. This is through an information request. Tell me what you found. Reporter well, brooke, we found interesting things. First of all, bill clintons white house also had to address questions about what donald trump president ial run would look like, what it would mean, you know, the president clintons aides prepared him before series of before a press conference and before an interview in october of 1999 for potential questions about donald trump president ial run. Of course, this was but was president clinton, you know, had several scandals and the questions were preparing clinton to answer have these scandals essentially impacted you. Is this what has brought donald trump to run for president. That was when donald trump first announced explorer to committee run in october 1999 for the reform party is what he was considering then. Also considerations of a birthday card potentially being sent from president clinton to donald trump, that was consideration, thats something that shows the long standing relationship that there has been between the clintons and the trumps. Of course, today, that relationship has completely changed. Today, you have, of course, donald trump referring to bill clinton as one of the worst abusers of women, referred to Hillary Clinton as enabler. We see now how much that clintons and trumps were a little bit closy. I think the audio is not entirely awesome. 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