Or spike again in the United States. This is a gamble as no state has reached the key benchmark the cdc has set forward to meet before reopening, that 14day decline in new cases. But for now its full speed ahead as more states begin easing restrictions today. You can see them right there on your screen. By the end of this week, more than 40 states will be at least partially reopening. With that in mind, here is where the numbers stand. The u. S. Death toll is now approaching 70,000. More than 1. 1 million confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States. And even President Trump is now being forced to acknowledge the total number of deaths here is going to be higher than previously estimated. Were going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people. Thats a horrible thing. I used to say 65,000, and now im saying 80 or 90 and it goes up and it goes up rapidly. Rosa flores is in miami. One of the few places that is not reopening. What are you seeing . Reporter were already seeing people are not following the rules in one city in florida. Ill get to that in just a moment, but about florida in general, today is the kickoff for phase 1 for reopening of most of the state, but that excludes the counties of miamidade, broward and palm beach. This is one of the biggest states in the union, and 30 of the states population are in these three counties, but they account for 60 of the cases and the deaths. Thats why the mayors of these three counties got together and decided to reopen simultaneously. Theyre excluded from phase 1, but they did reopen parks, waterways, golf courses and other green spaces starting on wednesday, but not everyone is following the rules. We learned from Miami Beach Police today that they tallied up all of the Warnings Issued friday, saturday and sunday, just this past weekend, and they say that they issued about 8,000 warnings to individuals for not social distancing, for not wearing their masks. Another 1300 people were not leaving the parks once they were closed, so they had to ask those people to leave. Now, when it comes to the rest of the state, phase 1 involves allowing restaurants and Retail Stores to reopen at 25 capacity. Restaurants will also be able to have outdoor seating, but the seating will have to be six feet apart. Elective surgeries will be allowed, and Governor Ron Desantis announced the opening of 80 state parks. But this is only phase 1, so schools are still closed, bars, gyms, hair salons are also closed. As the state looks forward at a possible phase 2 were only launching phase 1 today, but as they look forward, Governor Ron Desantis is mentioning that testing, kate, is going to be key. There are multiple efforts going on to try to expand that here in the state of florida. Kate . Its so important to roll through what phase 1 looks like where you are, because it is different everywhere, in every state. Everyone is different. Rosa, thank you so much. I really appreciate it. With the vast majority of states reopening in part this week, in states where stayathome orders remain in place, things are getting heated. In california, large crowds gathered in Huntington Beach and other Orange County towns over the weekend to protest the governors decision to shut down the beaches once again. Two other counties in california are defying the statewide restrictions by making moves to allow some businesses to reopen. Cnns Stephanie Elam is in los angeles. Shes been tracking all machinations of this as its progressed. Stephanie, what is going on there . Reporter a lot of different things, and its sort of the tale of two different californias, one of the most popular states in the nation, kate. You have Northern California counties, three of them so far, one in the far northeastern county, monmouth county, which has a population of about 9,000 people. On friday they decided to go ahead and open up some businesses, churches, schools as well. Theyre telling people who are 65 or older or anyone with underlying conditions, they should still stay at home, should follow those guidelines as well, but theyre saying, listen, we are different as a Rural Community in this part of the state. Then you have two other california counties, yuba county and sutter county, which i should add these two counties do have cases of the coronavirus, so theyre saying salons, gyms, restaurants, tattoo parlors can open up. Theyre saying social distancing still needs to be followed, and theyre saying any of these personal care businesses, after 30 minutes, you have to get up and move on and get out of there. But it is interesting to note that these are counties that have thousands of people in them, so very different north of sacramento. Whats not clear at this point is whether or not the governor is going to go after these counties to make them follow the order of the state which obviously is supposed to cover the entire state. And thats an issue here. The other issue, though, is that in the beach communities in Orange County, they feel targeted because of the fact that the governor said their beaches need to be closed over the week, and we saw Newport Beach file litigation that will be in Huntington Beach as well, because theyre trying to force getting their beaches opened up despite what the governor said. You saw big protests there over the weekend. People are very mad. I was there on friday, kate, and i can tell you there is a lot of anger about the fact their beaches are closed sor, so they fighting to get that changed. You can see weve been at the stayathome order longer than any other state in the nation, and the fatigue is there. And now that the weather is getting nicer, its really beautiful now, people want to get back outside and youre seeing that fight now. Thank you, stephanie. There is a stark warning coming from the federal commissioner saying despite the data and what any reporter is reporting, social distancing to date has not worked as well as expected. An adviser who served under president obama is advising the white house. Weve seen a rising number of cases, illinois, texas, indiana, virginia, tennessee, have a lot of new cases on a daily basis. While mitigation didnt fail, i think its fair to say it didnt work as well as we expected. We expected we would start seeing a more significant decline in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point, and were just not seeing that. We may be facing the prospect that 20,000, 30,000 new cases a day diagnosed becomes a new normal, and a thousand or more deaths becomes a new normal as well. Dr. Leana wen, weve gotten to a point that makes your eyes glaze over. But if 30,0,000 new cases a dayd 30,000 deaths a day becomes the new normal, what should people be watching . Kate, these are sobering numbers to say weve reached a plateau. At least were not increasing exponentially as we were, but that plateau is terrifying. I think what it reflects is there are different outbreak curves happening around the country. In the new york area, those are leveling off and decreasing, but were seeing hot spots in other parts of the country, including rural areas that dont have a Good Health Care infrastructure in the best of times. And i worry about what happens when we lift these social distancing measures . Even with that aggressive mitigation, were at best seeing a plateau, which means this virus hasnt changed. We still dont have a vaccine, we still dont have a cure, and what happens when these measures are lifted is that we are going to see an explosive spread. And that, at this point, seems inevitable. And smart folks like yourself continue to point out that a virus is happy to wait you out if you dont have new measures put in place. President trump, in talking about the numbers and the projections, President Trump is now revising his projection of the death toll back up to Something Like 100,000 people. These estimates, they were far lower weeks ago. Now even donald trump is saying the projection is getting worse. What do you think this change reflects . I mean, i think it reflects reality, because President Trump had previously said were looking at 60,000 deaths and now weve surpassed that number. But heres what im most concerned about, is that there are actually things we can do to change the trajectory of where we will be. We can rapidly ramp up our testing, our tracing capabilities, we can do a lot more to strengthen our health care system. So if we know that this is where the numbers are going, lets at least look at what we can do to prevent them from getting even higher. I think that requires this National Effort that were just, unfortunately, not seeing to date. And to be clear, this projection, as weve been talking about these projections, this is the death toll just through august. This is not the total death toll of this crisis before there is a vaccine. I think thats an important aspect that needs to be pointed out over again and again. Then you have, as you talked about, as folks are opening up, clear evidence over the weekend that even states with stayathome orders in place, people are not doing that. If thats whats happening in may as other states start experimenting with reopening, what do you fear that means for june . As i said at the top of the show, mark your calendars for memorial day. Thats right, and im glad you mentioned this lag in time because i think thats the problem, that people are not seeing that the impact of their actions are not immediately reflected. Its not like you go out today and were going to see a spike tomorrow, but rather because there is a lag of time between when you get infected and when you start showing symptoms. Another lag of time between that and when people become very ill or succumb to the illness. I think thats the problem, that were not seeing whats going to happen until weeks or even months later. But i think everybody should keep on doing their part. If you dont have to go out, please stay away, please keep on practicing these Good Public Health hygiene practices. Dont congregate, dont gather. We can at least do our part in keeping ourselves and others around us healthy, too. I almost think its the instant Gratification Society running up against science, the kind of collision happening. There is a huge drug Company Roche that says they just got approval for release of a new Antibody Test. They say its more accurate than most on the market. Puck, translate in english for the rest of us. They say their test captures 90 of those who have been infected and detects 100 of those who are not. A specificity of 100 . Can you translate that for me . Sure. Roche in this test are saying they are very effective in identifying both individuals who test positive, meaning that if they test positive, they actually have the antibody and that they are very effective at finding those who are negative. So a true negative result reflects that they have not had this exposure. I think the problem, though, we still dont know what the Antibody Test really means even we have an accurate measure of the test result. We dont know if having the antibody means that youre actually immune from getting the virus. It may be a better measure of exposure than actually whether youre protected, and i think we should be very careful until we know what that really means. Thats such an important point. It should frame how we talk about these Antibody Tests as there is now more moves towards using more of them. Thanks so much, doctor. Appreciate it. Coming up for us, President Trump says hes very confident there will be a vaccine by the end of the year. Is that realistic . Im going to talk to the head of the armys covid19 vaccine project. And later, missouri begins reopening today, but not everyone is ready. Why the mayor of st. Louis says shes keeping her city closed. Adversity came to town and said, show me what youre made of. So we showed it our people, sourcing and distributing more fresh food than anyone. Our drivers helping grocers restock their shelves. How were helping restaurants open popup markets. And encouraging all americans to take out to give back. Adversity came to town. So we looked it in the eye. And it wont be us. That blinks first. You know when your dog is itching for an outing. Or itching for some cuddle time. But you may not know when hes itching for help. Licking for help. Or rubbing for help. If your dog does these frequently. They may be signs of an allergic skin condition that needs treatment. Dont wait. Talk to your veterinarian and learn more at itchingforhelp. Com. Wokeuplikethis migraine medicine. The 3 40 midshift migraine medicine. Introducing ubrelvy™. Its the migraine medicine for anytime, anywhere a migraine attacks without worrying if its too late or where you happen to be. One dose of ubrelvy™ can quickly stop a migraine in its tracks within two hours. Many had pain relief in one hour. Do not take with strong cyp3a4 inhibitors. Few people had side effects, most common were nausea and tiredness. Ask your provider about ubrelvy™ or access doctors from home with telemedicine. Migraines can strike anytime, anywhere. Ubrelvy™. The anytime, anywhere migraine medicine. And your medicine, abbvie may be able to help. Myabbvie assist has been providing free abbvie medicines to qualifying patients for nearly 30 years. And in todays difficult times, making sure patients have access to our medicines matters more than ever. Find out if youre eligible at abbvie. Com myabbvieassist this morning President Trump is projecting optimism about a test for the Coronavirus Vaccine and the seemingly ridiculous timeline the administration has set. We think well have a vaccine by the end of this year, and were pushing very hard. Were Building Supply lines now, we dont even have the final vaccine. Johnson a johnson, they are doing it, and Many Companies are, i think, close. I meet with the heads of them and i find it a very interesting subject because its so important. According to sources, right now the white house has identified 14 potential vaccines to focus in on for development. Lets talk to one of the researchers working on a potential vaccine right now. Joining me is dr. Cavon. Hes director of research. Thank you for joining me. Im very curious, everybody is. Theyre talking about a timeline to get an urgent vaccine to market safely and today, right . Where are you all in terms of your vaccine . I think the important thing for people to understand is our institute is one of the oldest Research Institutes in the entire u. S. Government. Walter reed Army Research institute has been working on vaccines for 125 years. We actually have developed half of the vaccines that are licensed today. And so were building on a lot of that experience, and particularly we were working on coronaviruses for the past several years as well. So we were able to pivot that on the day that the sequences of this new virus were published to start working on a vaccine, and ever since weve been working 24 7 around the clock. Absolutely. Where are you in terms of that project, in terms of trials . Our vaccine study is in animals right now, so we have a whole landscape of many different approaches. You mentioned 14 that are being prioritized but there are about 100 vaccine candidates out there. Our role is not to recognize our own approaches but to work with academia, ministry and other vaccine partners to be able to use one of our approaches to advance their vaccine candidates. So weve been in discussions this whole time with all those different partners to see where we can insert and help them go much faster as well. That is fascinating. As you mentioned, the institute and you as well have worked on vaccines of many types. Ive seen you talk about your efforts with the zika virus. You called the timeline even for that unprecedented at the time, bringing the vaccine to Clinical Trials in nine months, and then you look at a timeline of getting a vaccine through trials in 12 months is even faster. What does that mean or look like for someone who is in the thick of it . Every single time we have dealt with one of these crises, we have gone faster and faster. Each time its unprecedented, and so what weve seen, i think, is because of the sheer volume of different groups coming in, all the political will, the efforts on this project, weve seen timelines i never could have imagined getting a vaccine from sequence to Clinical Trials. The moderna group was able to do it in 14 days. So its not inconceivable that we could go much, much faster than we have before. How do you make sure that youre not moving too fast, that safety isnt being compromised for speed . That is a critical point. And im glad that you brought that up. There are areas where we can compress the timeline, but the key point that people should understand is there is no shortcut that were going to take that compromises safety. Im a physician and our first principle in medicine is first, do no harm. So were going to focus on safety first and make sure that we have a safe vaccine and then an effective vaccine. What do you think the chances are that ive seen some talk about this that more than one vaccine is actually going to be needed. For example, one for older people as their immune systems have reacted to the virus differently than younger people. We call that product tracking profiles, and as you said, there are different populations with Different Levels of vulnerability to the disease. Some vaccines we might need that might be good with preventing transmission. Some vaccines might be better at preventing severe disease, as in the elderly population. Some vaccines might be better for Health Care Workers and first line responders. It gets the immunity faster. Some vaccines might be able to provide immunity for a longer period of time. So thats why its important that we invest in multiple approaches. Thats amazing, the undertaking that is underway. Thank you for your good effort. Good luck. Thank you. Thank you very much. Still ahead for us, im going to talk to the mayor of st. Louis about why she is keeping her city closed, even though missouris governor is opening the rest of the state today. Well be back. [anthony] hey mama, whats up . [mama] im confused. Confused about what, everything ok . Yeah, i only see one price on my phone bill. That doesnt sound confusing mama. Youre on tmobile, taxes and fees are included. Oh come on, theres always extra fees not on tmobile mama. Why cant all my bills be like this . I dont know mama. Bye mama, love you. Anthony . Umph at tmobile, taxes and fees are included. And right now, when you switch your family, get 4 lines of unlimited for just 35 a line. Theand we want to thank times, the Extraordinary People in the healthcare community, working to care for all of us. At novartis, we promise to do our part. As always, were doing everything we can to help keep cosentyx accessible and affordable. If you have any questions at all, call us, email us, visit us online. Were here to help support you when you need us. Take care, and be well. To learn more, call one eight four four cosentyx or visit cosentyx. Com wayfair has way more ways to renovate your home, from inspiration to installation. Like way more vanities perfect for you. Nice. Way more unique fixtures and tiles. Pairing. Nice. Way more top brands in sinks and faucets. Way more ways to rule your renovation. Nice on any budget, with free shipping. Wayfair. Way more than furniture. The biggest week in television is almost here. Starting may 11, enjoy free access to the best shows and movies from favorites like hbo, showtime, starz and, for the first time ever, hulu and peacock catch the show someone on twitter says is omg cray, exclamation mark. Dont look at me. Or the one with the character with the eccentric name. whispers to himself oh, so thats who offred is. Hi. Even the one thats inspired all those memes. There they are everyones got a show to recommend. Get ready to watch the best for free during watchathon week. Adad missouri now to the growing list of states beginning to reopen this week. But not everyone in the state is ready. The two biggest cities in the state have announced stayathome orders will extend through at least midmay. Look at the numbers in st. Louis, the city reporting its largest increases in cases just yesterday. Lets go there. Joining me now is the mayor of st. Louis, lida cruson. Thank you for your time. The governor is reopening the state. What are you seeing that troubles you or that doesnt have you there yet . Well, the city of st. Louis in our region here has twothirds of the cases in the state of missouri. There are other counties in missouri who only have a few cases. So what we have here is a situation where one size does not fit all. In our city we are leaving the stayathome order in place for another week or two weeks, we havent determined the exact date, but we think somewhere around midmay. Were going to continue to look at the data and have that inform us. We know Everyone Wants to get back to work, but we are very concerned that we continue to see a decrease in the number of hospitalizations before we are able to go back to work. I know one of the things you have also flagged is Testing Capacity. How short do you think you are on Testing Capacity right now for what you need . Were extremely short, as i think many other places in the country are as well. But we are extremely short. Part of the reason that we may be seeing a bit of an uptick in the number of cases is that we have begun being able to do a little bit more testing in the last week or so. So these cases may have always been present in our community and we just werent able to test them to find them. But having 154 cases reported over the last two days, saturday and sunday, is very concerning to us, and, of course, the number of hospitalizations, number of people in icu beds, the number of people on ventilators is also concerning to us, as well as trying to get back to work. Absolutely. How much more pressure, if you do feel more pressure, how much more pressure do you feel now that the governor is saying the stayathome orders are going away, and they are not yet in the city . What is the impact of that . There is some pressure to that because businesses have been devastated by the stayathome order. When businesses are devastated, that means workers are devastated. We have 300,000 people who have filed for unemployment in the United States. We know folks have to continue to practice social distancing. We have to all wear our masks. I have mine right here. And we have to continue to wash our hands. If we dont continue to take those precautions as we open up our economy a bit, then were going to see a big second spike, and that, of course, is something no one wants. The stay athome orders have been painful. Theyve been painful for people staying at home, but theyre also painful for people going to work every day, policemen, firemen, water department, refuse workers, hospital workers, Grocery Store clerks. Hard on them, too. Thats absolutely right. Its not just missouri, its other states im talking to as well. What is impact of the different strategies from city to city, county to county, state to state . As youre positioned right there between missouri and illinois, illinois is discussing stayathome orders through the end of may. Whats the impact as its been well described as this patchwork . I think the most challenging thing is the communication aspect of that. I thank you for doing this story. But we have to have a Clear Communication strategy to people. There is enough confusion as there is out there that people know that in the city of st. Louis and the st. Louis immediate region here, the stayathome order is still in place. Theres not just an illinois stayathome order, but in other rural areas of our state, the stayathome order has been lifted with conditions. The other thing we know, though, is we are also interdependent. Many, many of the hospital beds that folks rely on if they do get sick are located in the st. Louis region here. So we dont want to see a big uptick anywhere in our state because that affects all of us. It does. And across city, county and state borders as well because this virus knows no border at this point. Mayor, thank you very much. Good luck. I appreciate your time. Coming up for us, still. Why is Chinese Media calling the United States evil over the coronavirus . Thats next. The delicious taste of glucerna gives you the sweetness you crave while helping you manage your blood sugar. With nutrients to help support immune health. Withis whats mosthelp becaimportant to all of us. At bayer, this is why we science. My time is thin, but so is my lawn. Now theres scotts thickr lawn 3in1 solution. With a soil improver seed and fertilizer to feed now yard time is our time. This is a scotts yard. To my right is Garrett Rhodes who works with the department of Financial Services but hes been working with us in albany during this coronavirus pandemic. To my left, melissa rendoza. To her left, robert mojica. He doesnt smile much these days because the budget is not in great shape, but when the federal government does the right thing and gives us funding, we expect hell smile that big smile again. Its a pleasure to be in rochester with so many of my friends who have done such great work with the state. Former Lieutenant Governor bob duffey, who worked with me when we first got started, and has done great work for the entire state of new york. Danny wegman, pleasure to be with you. Wegman is a great new york corporation. Danny is a great civic leader and theyve been very helpful through this situation. Also thank you for allowing us to do the Antibody Testing at wegmans. Thats been very, very helpful and we thank you for everything youve done. Nicole wagner, thank you for being on our new york forward Advisory Board to help us Going Forward and find our way through this. Lets give you an update on where we are today. The total number of hospitalizations is down. You see that curve coming down, you see that mountain that we went up. Now were on the other side of the mountain. You start to see the shape of the mountain. Unfortunately, the decline from the mountain is not as steep as the incline, right . And the big question for us in new york and every state across the nation has been how fast and how low does that decline go, right . How fast does the decline actually happen, and what is the lowest level that the decline will reach . Unfortunately, you see that we were hoping for a quick up, plateau at the top, which is what they talked about, but a fast decline. You see the decline is, again, not as steep as the incline. But it is a decline, and thats good news. The net change in total hospitalizations is down, net change in intubations is down, and thats always good news. When a person is intubated, roughly 80 of the times there is not a good outcome. So the fact that the intubations is down is good news. And then the other end is how many new cases are coming in the door every day. How many new diagnoses in covid cases . And that number is also declining. So not only are the number of people in hospitals coming down, but the number of new cases coming in the door is down. And thats good news because it had plateaued at about 900 statewide for a few days, but this number is down at 700, and thats a good number. I would take this with a grain of salt, as they say, because this is reporting from yesterday which was a sunday, and sometimes we get different results on the weekend. Remember this whole reporting system has just been put in place. This never happened before. This is now every hospital in the state reporting every day for the first time. So its a plus or minus across the board. This is the number that haunts me every day, and this number is not declining anywhere nearly as fast as we would like to see it decline. Still 226 new yorkers who passed away, and so we dont become immune, we talk about these numbers. Thats 226 families, right . Thats 226 wives, brothers, sisters or children that are now suffering the loss of a loved one. So we remember them in our thoughts and our prayers. People are all talking about reopening, which we should be talking about. This is not a sustainable situation, close down everything, close down the economy, lock yourself in the home. You can do for a short period of time, but you cant do it forever. But reopening is more difficult than the closedown. The closedown was relatively simple, right . You go to the basement and throw the big power switch and everything just goes down. Close the businesses, stay at home. It was a blunt operation. And that was done all across the country, just stop everything now. When you go to restart the reopening, now knowing what we know, its more nuanced, you have to be more careful. And, again, no one has done this before, no one has been here before. So first, start by learning the lessons that we did learn through this experience. And second, lets be smart about what we do. And i get the emotion, and i get the kbasimpatience, i get the anxiety, i feel it. Its unsustainable on many levels. Its unsustainable economically, its unsustainable personally. Anxiety is through all of our community. We see it in alcoholism, through substance abuse, through domestic violence. This is a very, very difficult period and people want to move on, yes, but lets be smart about what we do and lets learn the lessons. One of the lessons is we have never been here before, and we didnt really know what was going on. Cdc releases a report end of last week that says the virus was actually coming to the east coast from europe. Everybody was looking at china for all those months. China, china, china, china. China was last novemberdecember. The virus migrated from china while we were all staring at china and went to europe. And the strain that came to the United States came from europe. We had people in the airports stopping people from china, testing people from china, the federal government did a lot of testing, a lot of screening, people getting off planes from china. Yeah. But meanwhile the people from europe were walking right past them, and thats where the strain came from that was infecting this area. And thats what the cdc just learned last week. And this is going back to february, right . One of the most studied topics ever. Again, learn the lessons of what happened. Now that piece of information on the europe trips, then you see the number of flights that came from europe during that time, where they landed, and now it explains why youve seen the outbreak in chicago that youve seen, why youve seen the number of cases in new york, because yes, the flights were landing here, people were coming from italy and u. K. And from European Countries and nobody thought to screen them, nobody was on guard. And you add that to the density of new york, especially in new york city, and that virus just took off. Okay. We didnt know. We didnt know. Now we do. We also can look back in history, you look at that 1918 flu pandemic that they talk about, the places that opened too soon saw that flu come right back. And by the way, that flu was not one wave, that was three waves. First wave, second wave, third wave. Second wave was worse than the first wave. And you see watch the other countries that went through this before us, right . Were not the first one down this chute, there were other countries that went down before us. You see they wanted to reopen also. They were feeling the pressure on reopening. And you study those cases and you see if you reopen too soon, or you reopen unintelligently and you can then have an immediate backlash. And thats not speculation, that is looking at other countries and looking at what has happened around the world. Then you talk to the experts who know. Listen to what theyre saying. Dr. Fouauci, who i think is onef the best voices and minds on this, dr. Fauci has been through this in different iterations. He was one of the pioneers on the hiv virus and aids. And he says, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter. Could be. Why . Because he doesnt know. Hes not sure, but could be in for a bad fall or a bad winter. So put all of this in the equation. And then also acknowledge and actualize that the truth is that nobody knows what happens next and when it happens. How can that be, that nobody knows . Were so sophisticated. We have so much intelligence, we have so many experts. This is the United States of america. How can it be that no one knows . Because no one knows. I speak to the best experts globally. Globally. And nobody can tell you for sure. Now, experts, we look to experts and we expect them to know, so we push them to know. Answer the question. Tell me when. Whats going to happen in september . Whats going to happen in december . Sometimes the answer is, i dont know. Sometimes thats the honest answer. I was talking to my daughters last night and they said, you know, you say at your briefings, i dont know. How can you say that . First, im not really sure they watch my briefings, but theyre right. Sometimes i say, i dont know. Why . Because i dont know. And if you dont know, say you dont know. And i speak again to the best minds in this country, the best minds around the globe, and they dont know. So if you dont know, say you dont know. It doesnt mean youre not smart, no reason to get defensive. I dont know. When you know what you dont know and admit it, it will actually keep you safe. My daughters dont quite agree with this yet but i havent given up on the concept. Say you dont know. Know when you dont know what the future holds, you can be safe because then you can prepare for different possibilities. And thats why we are. We dont know. But we will be prepared for all possibilities. So reopening. Chart a course with the best information you have, learning from the lessons you have, but be able to correct that course depending on what happens. Which means dont act emotionally, dont act because i feel this, i feel that, because someone said, well, other states are opening so you must be able to open if other states are opening. Forget the anecdotal, forget the atmospheric, forget the environmental, forget the emotional. Look at the data, look at the measurements, look at the science, follow the facts. Thats what weve done here from day one. This is no gut instinct. This is look at the data, look at the science, look at the metrics. Move forward, measuring what you can and what you know, and then be prepared to adjust. Well, i want spes specificity and i want to know for sure, you dont. Lets do this intelligently based on metrics and well see what happens and well adjust to whatever happens. What does it mean orrn metrics . You can measure this. You look at percentages and rates of hospitalizations. You want that hospitalization rate. Do your diagnostic testings so you know how many people are testing positive and you can watch that rate go up or down or flat. Do the Contact Tracing and you will reduce the infection spread by isolating the positives. If you do those things, you will control the rate of the virus. Nobody can eliminate the virus during a short time but you can control the rate of transmission. If you can control the rate of transmission, you can control the transmission becoming an outbreak or overwhelming your Public Health system. Thats the best you can do. Control the rate of transmission to 1. 1 or less. 1. 1 is every person infects more than one other person. If you are doing that, thats an outbreak. It is going to increase exponentially and it is going to be out of control. As long as your rate of transmission is manageable and low then reopen your businesses. Reopen your businesses in phases so you are increasing that level while you are watching the rate of transmission. Rate of transmission goes up, stop and close the valves right away. Watch the wait of transmission. If it getss over 1. 1, stop everything immediately. Thats where every country wound up. They started reopening and they see the 1. 1, it became the outbreak again, they have to slow down. You want a control start so you dont have to stop, thats what we should learn from other countr country. You reopen too fast and you have to stop. Nobody want to go through all of this and then start just to stop again. This state has different regions which are much different situations than other regions in the state. Rather than wait for the whole state to be ready, reopen on a regional bases. So analyze the situation on a regional basis, okay . And you look at a region on four measures, the number of new infections, your healthcare capacity if infection goes too high, you overwhelm your Health System and now italy with people in the hallways because your Hospital System cant handle it. Do your diagnosticing so you see how your infection is increasing or decreasing and do Contact Tracing. When you test, you find the positives, you trace the contacts from the positive person and you are isolating them to bring down the rate. You do that on a regional basis. That system has to be in place for a regional basis. How do you start reopening . We look at guidelines from the cdc which says a region must have 14day of decline in total hospitalization in deaths on a threeday rolling average. You take the threeday average, you have 14 days. You cant have more than 15 total cases or five new deaths on a three day rolling average. This is telling you you are at a plateau level that you can actually start to reopen. Then you are watching the rate of infection and the spread of the infection. The benchmark there is fewer than two Covid Patients for 100,000 residents. It is based on your population to account for the various in the different sizes of regions across the state. Anticipate, protect yourself from all possibilities. Well, what if we have a surge again . Never fill your hospital to more than 40 capacity. Leave 30 in case you have a surge. This virus is tricky. A person gets infected today shows up to the hospital ten days from today or two weeks from today. That infection rate goes up, you dont feel it for two weeks. There is a lag to it. You want to make sure you have 30 of the hospital beds available in case you have that surge. Every hospital has to have 90day of ppe for that hospital at the rate they are using. We cant have another mad scramble where nurses and doctors dont have gowns and masks and etcetera because hospitals dont have the necessary stockpile. Make sure every hospital has a stockpi stockpile. On the testing, we have been tested believe it or not. The cdc Coronavirus Task force recommends that for a region to be opened, you have 30 tests for every 1,000 residents ready to go. What Testing Capacity do you need . You have to prepare to do 30 tests for every 1,000 residents. New york is doing more tests than any country in the state by far. New yorkers are doing more tests than any country on the globe per capita. We are way ahead in testing but does not matter what we do statewide. That region has to have the capacity of 30 for 10,000. The National Guard is doing a great job by putting together testing kits and distributing testing kits. We want to thank you ththem ver. We have to have those tests and contact tracers in place. Mayor bloomberg has been very helpful, the former mayor of new york in putting together this tracing system. This never existed before on the scale. A group of people literally trace contact of a person thats positive. Who may you have been in contact with and then contacting those people to say do you have any symptoms and if you do, you should know you are with john smith, john smith tested positive. He said he went to dinner with you, you should be on alert. That tracing system have never been done, not only in this state but in this country. That all has to be set up. It has to be done. Once thats all done then you can talk about reopening businesses. Which business do you open first . You open business first thats most essential and oppose the lowest risk. Most essential and the lowest risk. Phase one we are talking about construction and manufacturing and select retail with curb side pick up. They are the most essential with the lowest risk. Second phase, retail, and real estate and third phase, restaurants and communications. Remember density is not your friend and large gatherings is not your friend. Thats where the virus tend to spread. Thats why those situations would be down at the end. We need businesses to also reimagine how theyre going to do business and get ready to protect their work force, to change their physical environment to the extent they need to and change their proc