This is why we fight. Im adam schiff, and i approve this message. Welcome to a Special Coverage of the Iowa Republican caucuses. In a few hours the gop will be one step closer to choosing a candidate to take on joe biden. Here is des moines, where its 2 degrees below zero, trump himself has expressed concerns that his margins could take a hit from the frozen temperatures. What are the candidate saying in these final hours . Nikki haley began her day at the drake diner here in des moines, a popular spot. And shes telling iowans to go out and caucus for her, she says shes not worried about the weather, shes feeling a lot of momentum and excitement on the ground. She has centered her campaign on this notion that she would be the strongest person to go up against President Biden in november, so principally, about electability. Meanwhile Governor Desantis, Crisscrossing The State as well. Take a listen to what he had to say. People are going to say, theres only two possible nominees, donald trump or Governor Desantis, we are the only one to have strong support amongst Bedrock Conservative republican voters. To win the nomination and got to be able to do that. I think iowa will show that clearly. You see Governor Desantis there, he is really caught in a Battle For Second Place with nikki haley as both of them really try to emerge from this contest this evening as the principal trump alternative. But then Big Question Is, will iowans turn out despite this weather and the one time speaking to say yes, they think its a huge honor that i will goes first, and theyve had the privilege of vetting these candidates and despite this negative temperature, below zero temperatures, they do plan to go out to their community centers, among their community and participate in the caucus tonight, anderson. We will check in with you throughout the day. The cold is where we go with john berman at the magic wall. So, what do you think this means for turnout . Let me show you where the weather could have an impact in iowa. Everywhere the entire state, The Deep Yellow here is where there are windchill warnings, the pale yellow, Winter Weather advisories. Its just everywhere and they are forecasting temperatures really low like 14, thats without the windchill, davenport, 16. So which candidates will this affect the most . You can say well it could impact donald trump, the latest polls have him way ahead, maybe he has the most voters to spare and on the other hand they may take his lead for granted and not show up. What about ron desantis, in the same poll from the Des Moines Register, 62 of ron desantis supporters say they will definitely attend the caucus. 56 for donald trump, 51 for nikki haley. The issue for ron desantis though they are committed, is where they might be in the state. Hes making a big play for evangelical voters. Everywhere you see on this map with the darker colors, who has the greatest percentage of voters, i will circle these areas right here. What do they have all in common . Look at the populations. The places with the biggest circles have the greatest population, the smallest circles the lowest population. A lot of small circles there, for these evangelical areas where ron desantis was trying to run up the score, that means fewer Caucus Places at these precinct, a longer distance to travel over icy roads, that could be a problem for desantis getting his people those long distances to the polls. Well, where do they have the most Polling Places . Let me circle the areas right here with the biggest populations, lets figure out what they all have in common. I will take out these filters right here, and i want to show you the 2020 president ial election. Donald trump won, joe biden won six counties, but they are largely in the Major Population Centers with a lot of voters which means a lot of precinct, which means you dont have to drive far to get there. Who could that benefit . Maybe nikki haley, shes taking a big play for independent and moderate voters in these urban and suburban areas, Towns Like Ames where iowa state is, iowa city where the University Of Iowa is, this is a place where moderate to independence have done well, including in 2016, marco rubio, he finished in a close third here, marco rubio actually won in these areas that i circled right there, where there are probably a lot of caucus sites and a lot of precinct you could show off two, maybe that would benefit nikki haley. We will have to see. Joining us is doug hi, in terms of the Ground Operation, who has the better ground game . Without question, donald trump. One of the more interesting things, in the general but also the primary, donald trump has a real professional organization which he didnt have his result was impressive in 2016 yes, he was a force of nature but i was all about organization, and thats why ted cruz actually one. Trump was a force of nature that merely wont at all. Trump doesnt have to work as hard as the other candidates, he gets more attention in whatever he does anys better known by i voters as well so we are going to see trump do very well in counties that ted cruz did. Its also an indication, a little bit of the benefit of having been the president , he runs the Republican Party, fulls, at the same time, hes also running like he did in 2016, as an outsider. In 2016 he did not have the organization, now he does. And he is running as an outsider so the duality of his campaign is a feature that we will continue to see. Antiestablishment an establishment free. Im involved with the Herbert Hoover president ial library. I think the story of iowa is a story of the gop elites versus the gop grassroots, because, what you have in iowa is gop elites, kim reynolds, former elected to are no longer in office but used to run the state, theyve all decided that they are friends with donald trump that they are going to support someone else. I interviewed him last night and he is supporting desantis. Its almost like they got in a room and said who are we going to go for that isnt donald trump. Who could turn a page for the Republican Party and when you look at the polling and you look at the energy and you look at where trump is, you see that it perhaps didnt translate. So are the elites able to influence the grassroots or does the grassroots have its own momentum despite the elites which has been the story of trump all along. The operation that desantis has set up is Lightyears Ahead of what ted cruz had in 2016 which was a very good operation. And this is really a test of those kind of endorsements. A test of the ground game. Desantis and his team have flown through an impressive amount of money before a single vote has been cast. And the latest poll shows that momentum is moving away from him, nikki haley has been catching more but given the importance of a ground game and iowa, this is a test for kim reynolds, a popular governor, can she convert that endorsement to people on the ground, can best mac donald trump has thrown out the rulebook on a lot of issues. Theres no he doesnt run the state, hes not the governor. To your point, The Press Tops try to come up with an alternative to trump and they seemed to really be bought in. Its interesting that this argument that Vivek Ramaswamy has been making and desantis has been making that a vote for them is actually, if you want trump, if you like trump, a vote for them is actually a vote for trump because they will protect donald trump in a way that donald trump cannot protect himself from the deep state. It doesnt make a lot of sense and i think its why you saw donald trump going after Vivek Ramaswamy. A lot of people thought, he must be a maga many me. Its a oneway street. Hes coming after you one day. What are your expectations . I think turnout will be down overall. Itll be interesting to see, weve been talking about seniors and whether or not they will brave the cold, the dangerous conditions particularly in rural areas, and it opens up an opportunity for Younger Voters to have their voices heard. Im looking at not just what the turnout is, but where it is and how. Does the evangelical vote split between ron desantis and donald trump or is donald trump, hes got two thirds of the angelica vote, he got that in 2016 but can he get that now. That will be the most interesting, not just because of what it tells us about iowa but where the electorate really is. I think it goes back to what john was talking about, Population Centers. Yesterday i saw a quote from a caucus going for trump who was asked about the weather and i can handle tough weather, she said i would walk over glass for donald trump. Okay, thats a mindset that means that that person is going to caucus but you do have harder issues if you are out in the northwestern corridor, where you have far to drive and also roads that arent necessarily as wellkept. It makes that interesting to see, can donald trump get to 50 . If hes at 50 1, he can argue that this race is over. Nikki haley is brushing off attacks from the former president and she says americans want to talk about key issues and not whether or not somebody is maga. Trump turned his legal troubles into Talking Points and how is that resonating with voters . Stay witith us. Any moment now nikki haley said be having one of her last appeals to voters. Earlier she took aim at donald trump. This is not what americans want to be talking about. They want to know why inflation is high, why everything is more expensive. They want to know how we are allowing the lawlessness at the border thats out of control. Thats what they want to talk about, not whether someone is maga or not. I was Senator Moyer is here right now. I feel great, nikki has certainly been gaining momentum at the right time, peaking at the right time and i think we will have a big surprise tonight at caucus. The Ground Operation that the Haley Campaign has is not as deep or as extensive as desantis or the former president s. How concerned are you about people actually showing up . Ive seen the team grow over the last 11 months. Shes put in the time and effort, going all across the state, doing the town halls and talking with iowans, answering the tough questions, and i think that has paid off and you see it in the polls. I think you will see a lot of people show up at caucus tonight, looking for the new generational type of leader who can have the best chance of beating joe biden in november. What do you think Success Looks like for nikki haley tonight . Does she have to come in second . I think a strong second will give her the momentum that she needs going into New Hampshire. She has a strong lead in New Hampshire. So, i think a strong showing here tonight in iowa will take over, and of course in her home state of South Carolina, going into Super Tuesday, she will be wellpositioned to go oneon one with donald trump and show the American People why she is the best alternative without all the baggage and chaos to move this country forward. Marco rubio just endorsed trump over haley. In 2016 haley was a strong supporter of rubio. What you make of that decision . Everybody is entitled to endorse who they want to. You know, obviously i think nikki is the most qualified, she is the candidate that beats joe biden by doubledigit in november and i think as republicans we need to keep our eyes on the prize. We want to take the white house back and that means if we want to take the country back and move forward into a positive future, we need to elect someone that doesnt have all the baggage and chaos that can actually serve two terms as president. Beam i live in a rural area and my routes roads are plowed. The crews have done a work job, iowans arent afraid of getting out in a little cold weather. The enthusiasm at the local levels is high. The enthusiasm is high. In my Little Elementary School where im caucusing, they are setting up shuttles because they anticipate that the parking lot wont be big enough for all the people who are going to show up tonight. Thank you. Donald trump not just going after his rivals, also taking aim at people at the center of his legal troubles. We will see how voters feel about this type of messaging in the home stretch, next. In order for Small Businesses to thrive, they need to be smart, efficient, savvy. Making the most of every opportunity. Thats why Comcast Business is introducing the Small Business bonus. For a limited time you can get up to 1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. Yup, 1000. So switch to Business Internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network. Give your business a head start in 2024 with this great offer. Plus, ask how to get up to 1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. Former President Donald Trump making his myriad legal troubles a part of his campaign. Trumps legal fights have loomed large over the primary race. How is the former president using his Court Battles to his advantage. Well anderson, donald trump is putting his legal battles at the forefront of his campaign. I know from my conversations with trumps advisors that they really view his political strategy and his legal strategy as largely one in the same and that is why you are seeing donald trump talk about his legal issues so much on the Campaign Trail and i know, with my conversations with his team, they really do think one of the best strategies on the trail is to try and paint himself as a victim of political persecution and thats exactly what the former president did during his rally in iowa yesterday. He told reporters these caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over the liars, cheaters and thugs who say, quote, The Washington Swamp has done everything in its power to take away her voice but tomorrow is your time to turn on them and to say and speak your mind and vote. Now we should note much of his rhetoric around his legal issues isnt necessarily based in fact but it is something that his team believes is working well with his supporters. And a great example of this is what we saw last week when donald trump took himself off the trail not once, but twice in order to appear in court for two of his second just make separate cases. And part of the strategy was it enabled him to suck that media oxygen out of the primary and keep it on himself. Thanks so much. John berman is at the magic wall. Lets remind people how trump did in 2016. He lost. He lost in Republican Caucuses and he is appealing to different voters this time around. In 2016, ted cruz won the caucuses. And as i mentioned before, ted cruz really campaigned hard among evangelicals. And you can see that in these areas densely populated with evangelical voters, this is where ted cruz did the best and tried to run up the score. That was 2016. I want to show you a couple of these counties that have some of the highest numbers of evangelicals, in the northwest corner of iowa right here, lyon county, ted cruz was first in 2015, marco rubio was second, ben carson was third, donald trump wasnt among the top three. One county the south and sue county, a high number of evangelical voters. Now, we are in 2024 the latest Des Moines Register poll among evangelical voters, donald trump is at 51 . Ron desantis, is at 22 , donald trump is just lapping the field, eight years ago, he wasnt even among the top three in these counties and to an extent, you think donald trump has the idea that hes pretty safe among these voters. Where is he spending all of his money right now . We have one slight here that shows ad spending over the closing weeks of the campaign, Doldrums Campaign and his super pac spent 4. 5 million targeting nikki haley. Zero dollars targeting ron desantis so not fighting for the evangelical vote, he thinks he has that in his pocket going after more moderate voters. My panels back. Its fascinating, we were talking about his legal troubles. Its a brilliant move by him, to embrace them and to campaign off of them and he knows the cameras will be in the courtrooms. He is following the cameras. And insisting on being in court even when his presence is not required. And claiming he has to be in court and fundraising over that. Its completely disingenuous but the other thing that he does effectively is joke about it, i mean, its troublesome that he is so funny, thats what ill elaborate a Liberal Democrat said. He has these jokes that trivialize the justice system, trivialize the fact that theres a real process happening. And frankly, none of his opponents take on the narrative because they are afraid of the voters not going for it. So its an unchallenged narrative. Also framing a vote at the caucus as, this is your retribution as opposed to, vote for an issue, build a wall, overturn obamacare which obviously he never did. Theres an old political slogan, hang a lantern on your woman thats what hes done. Hes saying, look ive been indicted, im having these court cases, i will play the victim, and grievance, its one thing that Populace Strongmen do but it also does make a mockery of the Republican Partys traditional play to represent law and order. There seems to be no speedbump with folks who think maybe its not a good idea to nominate someone whos been indicted 91 times and could be convicted before the election. And it trivializes the stakes for our democracy. And i think its in a dangerous way. The Grievance Narrative is resonant with his core voters and we know that its resonant with some of the mva evangelical voters who feel that they see covid as a government effort to shut them down. So he knows that it plays with people also who are afraid of change in this country. We saw this in 2016. If you are afraid, if you have anxiety about racial and cultural and social changes, those are his folks. So when hes sitting in court and he says, i am your retribution. Im taking these hits for you, yesterday, he even said, hey, if you are sick and dying, go vote, then die because you will be glad you did. Thats part of that narrative. Its an effective message. We will learn whether or not weve really had a primary process at all. Part of that really ties into Donald Trumps messaging around these indictments that hes had and his opponents, and i put that in quotation marks, they are using the same language that trump does. When trump gets indicted, not only did nikki haley and ron desantis not go after donald trump which they would for any other candidate, they use the same rhetoric, a weaponized system of justice, twotiered system of justice, so if this is smooth skating for trump over the next two months, desantis and Haley Campaigns, itll be a zamboni to make sure there was no crack in the ice for trump, they have mirrored his rhetoric precisely. You can make the argument that Chris Christie was calling out the former president and clearly, that was not a message that resonated. Christie had his own problems and was never going to get the big also argued a process argument. When he was in front of the courthouse, when he said i should be in iowa and New Hampshire, thats an opportunity for nikki haley and ron desantis to say, and hes not going to be in georgia, arizona, pennsylvania, north carolina, all of these still test mac swing states. Your something we havent talked about. As a woman of Color Running in a republican primary, first of all, how amazing is it that that is not a new thing. We have women running for president but shes actually i think, her way of going after trump, the men have all been like, youve got to hit them hard, that does not work. Listen to what she was just saying in the interview just now. People dont want to worry about maga, shes trying to create a bridge for the people who might be a little bit soft who might say, we should maybe have a plan b and, the way she has gone about trump its not personal attacks, she has talked about the chaos but shes also talked about, its got to be about the future, its got to be about you, the people, instead of attacking him directly. I actually believe that is going to show, that is how women have to campaign theres a whole lot of Research Behind it. And i think that may be the right strategy. You know, the only thing i would say, look at him attacking her, shes got the most muscular foreignpolicy credentials in the entire field. And that is defined as tough in any objective definition. But thats an attempt to undermine her. We dont talk about it a lot because she doesnt plate identity politics. As part of her appeal. I think most people get the joke that donald trump doesnt really, he may say theyre coming after me on the way to get to you but its always about him, right, its always about him, and i think nikki haley is trying to offer people an offramp to the future and we will see if the caucus goers want to take that or whether that ends up changing the trajectory of the entire race. There is a lot of information out there. Hamas slaughtered more than 1200 innocent people, holds innocent hostages, and raped countless innocent women. And now hamas is trying to hide Sexual Violence against women. They dont want those women to be able to talk about what happened to them stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. Stand for all women. So weve seen a number of last minute high profile endorsements in the run up to tonights caucuses. Former Maryland Governor larry hogan to his support behind nikki haley. Trump picked up endorsements from two former president ial rivals, senator marco rubio and doug bergen announced their support for the former president. , was mean, i voters will be caucusing in a few hours, you have chosen to remain neutral at this stage. Why is that . Here in balmy iowa, i think we will get the most important endorsement possible thatll come directly from the people of i will. Our job in congress, this is my first term, has been to be a great ambassador and getting these candidates to spend time with these voters. The neighbors will talk to neighbors, this is an opportunity to talk with each other and say, these are the candidates who have spent time and echoed my concerns and want to see a better government and a better country, lets make that championship tonight. Im excited that iowa gets to be the starting line. I dont know if this played a role in choosing not to doors one canada, your 2022 race was one of the closest elections in the country. You won by about 2000 votes. Do you worry a donald trump on the ticket could drive more democrats and independents to the polls . You are right, this is still the most competitively drawn district in the country right now. And ive got 750,000 bosses back home. The best thing i can do is to be able to bring folks to iowa to have that conversation and we are seeing people across the political line here, really getting engaged with candidates who spend time. Candidly i wish the democrats would come back and spend some time talking to iowans. This is an opportunity for voices to be heard, so the Endorsement Process here is part of it, more important, tough races like ours mean that weve got to have a voice for whats important in america being represented in the white house but also in congress. So im also very open to hear what iowans want to see happen in washington. Trump endorsed you in 2022, Haley Campaigned for you. Haley has been Warning Voters that he Trump Presidency would bring more chaos. Do you share some of those concerns or criticism . Im privileged to have everybody in this race supporting me. Weve been very pragmatic about getting Real Solutions for americans, the economy moving and most important as a military guy myself, someone who is focused on mission accomplishment. Whoever walks away from iowa tonight will start a great stride towards taking back the white house and doing things that are important for my voters and that is border security. Improving the economy, driving down inflation and here in iowa, making sure our farmers and our Farm Community are taken care of. You didnt answer the question but thats okay. The former president , though, he did endorse you. He is known for retributio n. Are you worried by not endorsing him at this stage, you can incur his wrath down the road . Ill be clear on this. We are supporting iowans to give them the opportunity to have a voice on this. People who come out the day of and make endorsements thats all well and good. The one that matters is the one that happens at 7 00 tonight when iowans sits down with iowans. Ive been proud to be able to get support from candidates on all sides and i have a number of democrats that support me. The key is that we had pragmatic leaders in washington who will stop the system as normal thats been corrupt and nonresponsive to needs right here in iowa. That is what will be the take away from tonight, who is answering to the people in the heartland and is going to make a difference in washington, d. C. The former president has said nikki haley is not, quote, Strong Enough to be president. Do you think she is . I think any of the candidates that are walking out of iowa could walk into the white house day one and be a great leader. You need to look at again, from what nikki haley did when she was un ambassador that really drew a strong narrative. The u. S. Was going to support our allies, the same could be said of Governor Desantis as well as President Trump. These are strong leaders on the national stage. Weve had somebody else in the white house for three years, still struggling to find their footing and i think iowans are frustrated by that and again, i will say people on the independent level are ready for change. Congressman, i appreciate your time. President biden and democrats are keeping a close eye on eye to see how it could impact his reelection campaign. We are live from the white house, next. Your stories need to be told. At contra Costa College, you can become a leader in journalism and help shape world views with handson experience at the advocate, contra Costa Colleges awardwinning, studentrun news publication. Learn to use Digital Media to tell stories and gain the Research Skills needed to uncover truths while exploring careers in media. So what are you waiting for . The world needs you. Start your career in journalism today at contracosta. Edu ormer South Carolina governor nikki haley is in pella, iowa. And in minutes ron desantis will be speaking to voters is sergeant bluff. Both are making the olusegun pitches. We are following them on the ground. The Biden Campaign is closely watching the caucuses today. They tell cnn they are gearing up to make the election about more freedom and democracy in america. What are people saying about this process . Tonight kicks off the republican primary contest. No votes are being cast for democratic candidates, but tonight has everything to do with President Joe Biden because it is the beginning of the process of determining who the president will face off against, november. Like so many people who have been paying attention to the 2024 cycle, most Biden Campaign advisors and people in the biden world believe that this will end up being donald trump that the president faces off against in november. I am not saying that there are not folks who cannot see a scenario where something wacky or unexpected happens, but for the most part the preparations that are underway right now are about the president facing off once again against donald trump. I will tell you, there is a bit of a sense of impatience in the Biden Campaign for the republican process to really move forward. They would like more voters to start seeing this reality that they think is real which donald trump will be on the ballot in november. Their internal Campaign Research shows the majority of undecided voters at this moment in time do not believe it will be donald trump. Advisors that we have spoken to say that most people are tuned out of the election. But they are very antsy. They are very eager to draw the contrast between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. That is why we hear them talk so much about what the first four years of the Trump Presidency looked like and making warnings about what the second term could look like. They are also making all the preparations that they feel they need to have a strong fight in the general election. That includes fundraising. We were told by the campaign in the Fourth Quarter they raised some 97 million and they had more than 100 million on cash on hand. Those are resources that the campaign expects will eventually go towards battling it out against donald trump come november. Thank you very much. This is not just caucus day, it is also Martin Luther king jr. Day. He was born january 15, 1929. There are events taking place across the country to honor his life and legacy. It was made a federal holiday in 1993. The Memorial Foundation that was constructed on the National Mall is holding a wreath laying ceremony. Dr. Kings daughter honored her father posting, thank you for lifting The Power Of Love and thank you for believing that we can defeat injustice without destroying one another. Take you for your courage and compassionate action. I remember you today on your 95th birthday, I Remember You always. Much more of our Special Coverage as we count down to the Iowa Caucuses. Good afternoon. I and Kaitlyn Collins in washington alongside Anderson Cooper in new york. This is our live coverage of the Iowa Republican caucuses, the first nominating contest of the 2024 race. This is the historic contest already, it is honestly during the coldest on record. The candidates are battling each other and their supporters will battle the subzero temperatures when they convene in a matter of hours. The outcome could set the tone for the republican president ial race going forward. It could also answer some lingering questions that we have, including how strong Donald Trumps grip on the gop base really is. Could nikki haley leapfrog ron desantis as the strongest alternative in this race, and will the republican field shrink . Lets start in West Des Moines with jessica dean. What are we seeing and hearing from the candidates as they speak to the voters hours before they are set to convene . Reporter they are giving their final pitch to voters. In talking to people who are involved with these campaigns, the big x factor is what you walked through, the weather. Nobody really knows for sure exactly how that is going to impact turnout. When you are caucusing, you do not just go in and check a box any time, you arrive at a certain time, go in and participate. It requires tremendous organization on the part of the campaign and the voters. As someone said earlier today, what does this impact . This the weather impact geography in terms of rule voters . Doesnt impact age . Older voters are less inclined to get out of these types of temperatures . That is what people dont know. Depending on how that impacts different voters, that could impact some of the results. We are looking at how strong will the former president be . He has had a commanding lead in the polls coming out of iowa, will he be able to clench that lead tonight . What does the race for second place look like . Especially for Governor Ron Desantis who has staked so much here in iowa to really launch him forward to the next stage, or someone like former South Carolina governor, nikki haley, who has had a lot of momentum as we are going into the first voting. Here is what they were saying to their supporters. There are only two possible nominees donald trump or Governor Desantis, we are the only ones who have strong support against Bedrock Conservative reporters. To win the republican nomination, you have to do that. Does it concern you in a republican contest that it is not republicans but more democrats and particularly independence . Thats what i told Republican Party they should do. Republicans have lost The Last Seven of eight popular votes for president , that is not something to be proud of. We should want to win the majority of americans. Reporter the Haley Campaign feels really good and they are telling her that she is pulling these different types of voters. The Desantis Campaign will make the argument that they have enthusiasm on their side, there voters are less squishy when it comes to certainty that they will show up at the caucus sites. They feel good about that. We will have to see who shows up and how they vote. That is a critical question. Jessica, you are near the site of the desantis watch party where they are watching to see who shows up. We know his campaign is going to Great Lengths to get people to show up and caucus. They are even offering rides. That is exactly right. They are offering rides to caucus goers all across the state. They are being told to reach out to the precinct captains, two people affiliated with the campaign that there are cars, buses, vans in place so they can make sure they safely get to the caucus sites. This is one more thing that the Desantis Campaign is really looking to make a difference for them and that is the ground game and organization. We talked about this in covering them for the last several months, the super pac has poured millions of dollars into the state of iowa. They have knocked on over 900,000 doors, they have touch points with hundreds of thousands of people all across the state. They hope that will make a difference no matter what, especially when you do have this weather to consider, when it may be harder or more challenging to get people to these caucus sites. In talking with some people, they just do not know what will happen tonight. They think it will make a difference, they are hopeful it will make a difference, but we have to see how it will come together, especially as a sun goes down. Right now you can get around the area of des moines, but the wind is a killer. When it gets really dark those conditions outside are punishing. We will have to see how that plays in to the makeup that we see tonight. We hope everyone stays safe. Thank you. Lets get on over to the weather center. What are they contending with wax we have temperatures that have been below zero since saturday afternoon 38 des moines just hit 0 degrees. That windchill is still 20 degrees below zero, you still have temperatures as cold as 8 degrees below zero up in sheldon with the windchill as cold as 30 below. We have windchill warnings in effect for most of the state because those times are so small, we could find hypothermia, confusion, difficulty speaking and stiff muscles and in temperatures and wind chills this cold. This evening were looking at temperatures much as much as 10 degrees below zero, windchill as much as 35 degrees below zero. Frostbite can happen in 20 minutes or less. When you look at the past caucuses, yes it is cold but temperatures in the 30s and 40s is nothing compared to the 0 Degree Temperature that we have today. The past coldest caucus was 16 back in 2004. I want to mention that this cold snap is happening in the midst of their warmest winter on record. Iowa has not really had a cold snap so far. This is really the first time that they have felt this extreme. Des moines has not been below zero since february 2021. It does not happen all that often. We know were caucus goers might see rough winter conditions, the question is where do candidates need to show up . Let me show you three different counties, anderson, east, west, and center, they tell the story. Lets start with dubuque in the eastern part of the state. With dubuque it is always close. The president ial race in 2020, donald trump won by a few points. In 2016, donald trump won by only one point. In the 2016 Republican Caucus, you can see, donald trump won but by less than a point. It is a nice edge county, or at least it has been. Tonight as you watch this, see if donald trump is able to build up a substantial lead in this county that is always close. If he is, that will tell a story on where the night is going. Keeping the 2016 map of here i will go to the far western part. This is ted cruz country, or was in 2016, evangelical part of the state, only 1 of the state population. Ted cruz won with 33 of the vote. What was so interesting to me is donald trump was not in the top three in this county with heavy evangelical vote. Tonight, again, i do not expect that to happen. You will likely see Donald Trumps name somewhere in the mix. The question is, is he able to blow it out in this county where he did not even show up last time . The biggest county in the state is polk county where the capital is in des moines. This is a capital in 2016 marco rubio won, this is a county that joe biden also won, this is a county were nikki haley has to do well. Independents and democrats can vote. 70 of caucus goers identify as republicans, democrats and independents, which make about 20 , if they register as republicans they can vote. There are a lot here, if they show up and change parties, they can make a difference. Thank you. Jackie is here with us. You have covered a lot of Iowa Caucuses in our days, maybe not like today with it being as cold. I wonder, what do you make of the turnout that could be impacted . The Trump Campaign said a lot of first time caucus goers are showing up for him, are they inclined to show up when the weather is his treacherous . This is when enthusiasm really matters. Trump has been, unlike the last time he ran against ted cruz, he actually has an organization in iowa and it is a vast. Reporter just met a woman who was organizing rides for people to get to caucus. I think you will see the same thing with ron desantis, who also has quite the organization there. Haley was pulling above ron desantis but her organization on the ground, she has not been there as long as the other two. That will be the x factor. You really have to love a candidate to come out and visit in these kind of conditions. This is different even for iowa it is cold and the wind is no joke. Daniel, what do you make of the expectation managing that we have seen from trumps team in the sense of what this could look like . Nikki haley was putting out a video today of how many times he said he was up by 60 points in iowa . With trump i look at who he is attacking and when. He has offered a Little Spring on everyone. What that indicates to me at least, he knows that there is some ground gaining a both with the santas and haley and he wants to well that as quickly as possible. He wants to see as big a win in iowa tonight, to just put the perception back that the primary is over, these are all stragglers and that there is no chance at all of any kind of real surge of anyone but him in this primary going forward. What does that mean for nikki haley . She is hoping to totally disrupt that. Nikki haley needs to come in second place, she certainly wants to. In New Hampshire she is gaining on donald trump. Polls still show her down 10 points, some show more. The cnn poll shows her closer. She wants a good night, she wants a oneonone race with donald trump. Ron desantis has a lot of existential questions to answer if he does not come in second place. He has been out there saying he needs to come in first for most of the campaign. He has staked his entire operation on this and if it does not pan out, i think his biggest supporters will ask what is the path forward. Right now his travel plans are going to South Carolina tomorrow morning and then New Hampshire for a cnn town hall. Good tonight disrupt that . That is a lot of travel miles. As a florida resident on this panel, 14 months ago, in november of 22, and desantis ran against a candidate who is not that great in florida, we saw what we thought would be the birth of the next wave of the gop field. Here we are all the chips are in the basket for ron desantis. If he does not finish in the top two here, this is going to be really scary stuff. I do not know if he will make any of those events. We will find out in the next seven to 10 days what the Desantis Camp will look like, a strong second place is a must. Anyone in the Desantis Camp that you talk to will tell you, iowa was always the focus, dont let them lie to you, iowa was always the focus. He has to finish in second place. What do you make of what ron desantis is saying . You heard him speaking earlier today about the end of the race, he is much more explicit in his criticism of donald trump. He is much more media friendly than he was in the beginning when he was that Heir Apparent to donald trump. He also started this underdog pitch. He also reemerged, this thing that he was saying in the early part of the campaign is that it is a twoman race between me and donald trump. It is clear that is not a thing any longer. I heard him say this to dana, he took a very traditional route to becoming the nominee and iowa. He courted evangelicals, he has a lot of ted cruz people on his team, or did. The difference is, evangelicals really like trump, particularly in iowa. Whether that model will be broken tonight, that is one thing i will watch. That could serve ron desantis well if temperatures keep people home. If turnout is down, his campaign has been targeted, folks are showing up every four years and they are going out and seeing, his group is not made up as many seniors. It also may play to those who feel safe to go out. I was going to say, think about and pro sports, anyone who spends this much money in that state who gets the endorsement of the governor and the biggest evangelical leader in the state, if you do not get your return on investment it is tough for the Desantis Campaign to look down the road as we get to New Hampshire, nevada South Carolina. We will talk about that soon. Coming up, we have some of the biggest Trump Supporters as we are mentioning evangelical christians. The question right now is whether or not nikki haley and ron desantis can break through. We will speak to one of those very influential legislators who was supporting ron desantis in this race. Also, what do the iowa caucus historically tell us about the race for the white house overall x we will break it down after a quick break. Donald trump has gained major support with evangelical voters. That could be key to the outcome and their votes could be early sign of what is the company lets get to john berman. Tonight will be a good test to see if anyone can break donald trump told. They are all fighting for it. When we talk about evangelicals in iowa, they take up 12. 4 of the vote which does not seem like that much. Republican caucus, they play an outside role. There is no question. In 2016 they ended up with 65 . 65 of Republican Caucus goers, and ted cruz seen as the candidate of evangelicals, he won. In tot 2012 they made a 57 of the Republican Caucus goers and rick centaur seen as the candidate for evangelical voters, he won. You go back to 2008, similar story, they made up 60 of Republican Caucus goers and Mike Huckabee was the winner and he was seen as the candidate of the evangelical voters. I want to go back to 2016 because that tells more of the story of where we are right now. Ted cruz won the caucus in 2016. If we look at where the evangelical voters are in this state, the far northwest corner, the darker the color more densely populated among evangelical voters. You can see these areas and where the evangelical voters are. If i switch to the counties that ted cruz won, yellow is ted cruz, he did very well in all of these counties. This was his county. Tonight, donald trump wants to do well in all of these counties , and the same counties he did well in 2016 himself. He wants to double where he was. There are signs that he is on the way to doing that. The latest Des Moines Register poll with evangelicals, donald trump is at 51 and ron desantis second with 22 . This is a group, both of them very much want to control. Speaking of Governor Desantis, he has poured a lot of time and money into iowa. A big question we will look at is whether or not he can shake the president s hold on evangelical voters. One of the most influential evangelical leaders joins me now, he endorsed Governor Desantis. Thank you for being here, do you believe that Governor Desantis can win iowa . I really do. As a matter fact it is like a perfect storm, no pun intended. Frigid wind chills tonight, theres snow and ice, i think it will be a turnout game. He has built an amazing organization. Ted cruz was the best organization i had ever seen in 2016 and i was a desantis organization is light years ahead of where ted cruzs organization was. He will beat expectations, but potentially he could win. Do you think the weather will help Governor Desantis and hurt someone like donald trump who right now is the front runner in the race . That remains to be seen. There are two things, one is organization which is advantage clearly desantis and the other is enthusiasm. What i have seen on the ground as i traveled with the governor from Campaign Stop to Campaign Stop, no doubt he has the energy and enthusiasm. In matches a lot of what i saw was huckabee, santorum and cruise in the late days of their victories. Where do you think evangelical voters are going into this . They are the ones who won the voters over. If you look at the Des Moines Register poll, it shows trump is leading among evangelical voters with 51 support compared to 22 support, 12 for nikki haley. Why do you think evangelicals are lining up behind donald trump . One is because donald trump has a record. He has a record of accomplishment. He appointed three Supreme Court justices, he moved the embassy to jerusalem, he stood of religious liberty. There are a lot of things that evangelicals say that they are appreciative of. Where my pulse does not line up with the polls, that means every other person that i visit with in my base would have to tell me they are voting for donald trump and that is not the case. They tell me they are appreciative, then the next breath they say its time to turn the page i get to a different leader, then they talk about Governor Ron Desantis. That is why i believe desantis could defy the polls, not only come in a strong second but knock on winning bid it i wonder where you think trump himself lies on these issues. Governor desantis told me he does not think trump is prolife. There is no doubt that the trump of 2016 and 2024 is not the same guy. He got the Life Question at a town hall with you when he said, he is willing to make a deal. The same question at a fox news town hall recently and he said thats why we are getting beat because of the life issue we need to win. He said about governor santos and Governor Reynolds signing the heartbeat was an awful thing. On the gender issue, when megan kelly asked him can a man become a woman, he could not answer that. Those are issues that we have concerns with today. I can see why evangelicals are appreciative to what he did in his term as president , but now they need to look clear eyed about who could win 2024 and who can lead in our issues. You brought up the two town halls, the town hall with me trump would not say how many weeks he would support an Abortion Bill and the other one with fox last week he basically made a sound like, or he acknowledged the fact that the abortion policies that republicans have pursued are hurting them at the polls and thing you have to win votes. Do you think it is clear that donald trump is politics driven and not policy or principle . I think that definitely is where he is at. If you recall in the midterm elections of 22 he threw the Prolife Committee under the bus and blamed us for not having the red tsunami that we were supposed to have. Those who are authentically pro life life like Governor Ron Desantis and governor kim reynolds, not only did they win in 2022, but they express the red wave in florida and iowa that was predicted. I think on the prolife issue, on the life issue, people want authenticity, they do not want nuance or lets make a deal, they want to know where you are at. I believe Governor Desantis has been clear he wants to be a champion for the culture of the sanctity of human life. If donald trump wins the caucuses tonight, could you support him despite what you laid out about what he has set . I think whoever wins the nomination whether it is Governor Desantis or former President Donald Trump, they need to earn votes. Especially for those people who were not with them in the primary process. I would say lets stay focused on the iowa caucus, lets stay focused on the primary ahead of us. Once we get to that point, we have to make sure that those candidates are willing to earn the votes from the other camps and that will make the better candidate going forward. Bob vander plaats, perfect to hear from you and great to hear from you on a day like today. Thank you for your time. Thank you. Of plea from donald trump to his supporters who may not feel well to come out tonight. We have much more on the race and the freezing weather that is bad enough to make the toughest i want rethink about going out. Donald trump is putting pressure on his iowa supporters to show up as a brutal arctic last bears down. The former president Directing Caucus Goers to arrive no later than 6 30. If you want to save america from crooked joe biden, you must not miss the caucus tomorrow. You cannot sit home. If you are as sick as a dog, you have to make it breathe even if you vote and then pass away, it is worth it. Even if you are sick, get up. Get up. That was the former president in iowa yesterday. Turnout is the question, who has the better ground game and who will get their folks to the polls. There is enthusiasm behind donald trump. I think it is good for him and his team that he got nervous and he had to cancel a couple of flights and he realized he could not get there and the polls were tightening, there is little editorial his administration on the republican side. The enthusiasm behind donald trump and his numbers, i am still part of the Republican Party that believes the party could be regenerated by a fresh face who represents a new generation and thats historic. I really hope nikki haley over performance expectations and really brings back a robust two party system to the country. We are talking about such a small percent of the iowa population having a impact on the election, the nomination. 187,000 folks are participating, 1. 6 point participate in the general election. Evangelicals make up 12 of the population of iowa. They make up 65 of the caucus. The reason this matters is nikki haley really struck me, in an interview talking about would it not be good to have a republican who could win the majority of votes. Wouldnt it be good to have a Republican Party that sets up a system that would represent republicans across the nation that could win. It seems to be winner take all. You rarely hear republicans talk about the importance of winning the majority of votes in the general election. Instead you are opposite, Speaker Mike Johnson and senator lee talking about we dont want to engage in majoritarian democracy. It is a different message. It is notable she is making this argument, not just electability but someone who can build the bar. It would be good for democracy having both parties campaign for the majority of votes. This is why the delicate count matters, the rules matter, the fact that donald trump controls the Republican Party and he got the rule changes so it is winner take all so that as much as how tonight goes and what the closing numbers are are interesting and important. At the end of the day it is about the delicate count. I will keep saying this, donald trump wants to accrue enough delicates that it is impossible to overtake him by Super Tuesday when, who knows what could happen. In South Carolina, are they going to have the same three candidates . Iowa is not necessarily about the wins, obviously donald trump gets attention for everything, but it is about who emerges. I think what john was speaking to about the evangelicals, does ron desantis emerge are not . If he does not, effectively this is a twoperson race, Asa Hutchinson could stare it stay in but who cares. Nikki haley could make things interesting and she could lose her home state and at that point this race will effectively be over at that point with donald trump and then the delicate map that karen talks about where it is the official part. This could be a very short process. Part of it is we do start with the winner take off, this is not different from what republicans have done in the past certainly in 2016 by and large its well. To your point talking about iowa and the people participating, this is a big people why they change the process because we felt that. When i was at the dnc, after the 2004 election and obviously they completed the process last year to move South Carolina up so we could have a more representative, i know everyone likes to talk about joe biden, but there have been strong feelings in our party for a long time that we need to have a earlier contest that actually represented the diversity of our party and our country. That is why South Carolina and nevada have done that. I think anyone who was not on suicide watch wanted to win majority of american votes. I dont mean just new york, i made the majority of people in the majority of the states and the Electoral College would recognize what nikki haley said, Republican Party has won one out of the last six popular votes in the elections. The odds from the 2012 a Publican Party said the same thing. Mainstream republicans understand this, but mainstream republicans are not your average primary participants in iowa, in South Carolina or any primary states that will be in the Sunshine Belt coming up. Where are the mainstream republicans hiding . There are some on cnn and a couple of cable networks. They do not participate enthusiastically in the primary process. They show up every four years and not every cycle, that is there lower propensity voters, it happens on the democratic side as well. But for those who are not activated right now. A lot of them know better and fall in line. I think the main issue is representative elections have representative results. Democracy is undermined with polarization and partisanship. It is easy to hijack a small system. You want both parties competing for the majority of americans, but that requires republican standing up and speaking out showing their muscle and they have not been. Nikki haley responding to some of the things that the santa said about her not being conservative enough. Earlier today Governor Desantis said you cannot beat trump because you do not have the support of core conservatives. How do you respond to that . I am not going to respond. I was a departed governor, i was a strong un ambassador. We have had a lot of town halls, we have support and momentum is going up, hours are going up in his a going down. We will continue because people want a new generational leader. We dont want the chaos of the drama. Interesting she did not really answer the question. There is an argument she could have made. She was elected in the tea party wave, she was a Trump Appointee at the un, it shows how skewed our frame of center is. She is very conservative, she just has not Kiss The Ring like so many other republicans have. She has Kiss The Ring, she served in the Trump Administration and frankly, shes the one with the most political dexterity because she was able to leave the administration without having a tweet slam on the way out. I will go back to this, this is how women handle, you somewhat take on the attack but you somewhat dismiss it for you she did not engage it because it is a way to belittle him. Im not going to talk about that i just want to talk about me it was a smart response. What does iowa historically tell us . We will look at that and we will discuss that. There is a lot of information out there. Hamas is a Terrorist Group oppressing the Palestinian People. Hamas refused a continued ceasefire, a continued pause in fighting and more aid from israelis in exchange for just freeing more hostages. Instead, hamas resumed attacks. Not to protect the Palestinian People or obtain peace, only to destroy israel. We must stand against hamas and stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. Not just any whiteboard. Katie porters whiteboard is one way shes [news anchor]. Often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even Top Administration officials. Katie porter. Never taken corporate pac money never will. Leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. And the only democrat who opposed wasteful earmarks that Fund Politicians pet projects. Katie porter. Focused on your challenges from lowering Housing Costs to fighting climate change. Shake up the senate with democrat katie porter. Im katie porter and i approve this message. The candidate who won the iowa caucus did not go on to win the republican nomination. Donald trump won both in 2020, and 2016, i when republicans picked ted cruz. In 2012 Rick Santorum and 2008 Mike Huckabee. None of them went on to win the gop nomination. Tim, glad to have you. Given the history of the iowa caucus kaitlyn, james baker, who was George Herbert walker bush is Campaign Manager said politics is beating expectations. Even though iowa has not had a great track record in making, it can still change our set of expectations about what will happen in New Hampshire, and thats what people are looking at. That is why people care about the margin of trumps victory, thats why they care about who comes in second. I just want to put this out there, the Des Moines Register poll in 2016 overestimated trumps to vote and underestimated cruise. All posters have changed the way they approach polling since 2016. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the Des Moines Register poll putting trump at a percent has exaggerated the amount of support that he will get. It is all about expectations. Even if it is exaggerated he is still far and away above any of the other candidates. I wonder if you think this is a primary that people are paying close attention to when it does see that donald trump is far ahead. We will see if this is a primary that could be more dictated by his criminal cases and the trials that he is facing. What always has been interesting about iowa is the argument that the voters make, it goes right back to when the iowa caucus got put on the political map by jimmy carter. Iowa and said we need to get to know you, we are not part of a National Campaign, we want to meet you. The longest time, i was were rewarded candidates who came in and went to as many as the 99 counties as they could. Donald Trumps Campaign this time around is very peculiar. He basically is flipping on his head and turning iowa into a National Campaign, he was not there often. And counting on the fact that he is the first former president to run on a primary, to allow him to break the rules of the iowa caucus. The rules of the iowa caucus used to be we need you to be here if you expect us to be there for you. He has spent less time in iowa than ron desantis, nikki haley or Vivek Ramaswamy, when you look at events, i know i could hear a trump Spokesperson Calling and saying he has bigger events and he does not have to go as to as many of them. If he doesnt win, does it mean that the Retail Campaigning is over . This has become nationalized like you said . Our country goes through these cycles and our political culture changes. Right now we are at a moment where everything seems nationalized, that would mean its true but it does not mean it will last forever. Yes, it would mean that iowa like most every other state in the union is caught in a National Campaign and retail politics does not matter as much. I would not predict that to be true 10 or 15 years from now, but it is tonight. We will be watching closely. Thank you so much. How does the caucus actually work, it seems i can remember every four years and then he forget it. We will take a closer look to prepare you for what to expect tonight in just a moment. As we wait for iowans to gather for many of you may wonder how this process works. John berman drawings us to walk us through what will unfold. This is with the iowa boating looks like right now. All great because no votes have been cast and they wont be cast until iowans show up at caucus site at eight p. M. That is why Asa Hutchinson is still here. This might be the best moment in the entire campaign. It is apple medical. Donald trump is down there. Iowans show up at their caucus sites, number one. When they get there, a representative will give a short speech. That is either a Campaign Official or someone from the local community who tries to convince their friends to vote for the candidate of their choice. After that, step number two. The Voting Period the caucus goers, they write their choice. Write it on a piece of paper and you handed in. This is a simple process. Remember, there is more than 1000 caucus sites. Some are quite small. Step number three is the counting of the votes. The ballots are counted, recorded, then they are sent to the state Party Organization where they are tabulated. Cnn has got some of the best reporters in the country. We may get a sense of some of the counting before they submit the ballots but this is what we find out how each candidate is doing. Now, i should note, what we get tonight is a boot count of all the ballots that are cast but really, this is just the first step. Iowa has 40 delegates that they are going to send to the Republican National convention. This is choosing the precinct level delegates to go, i think its to the District Convention and then they go to the county convention, then they go to the state convention. It is a long process to select 40 delegates to go to the Republican National and convention but taking the gauge for each candidate. John, thanks very much. Over five hours to go, candidates are making Closing Arguments. The caucuses will give us the first real look. We are going to take a look at what is at stake. Welcome. I am Anderson Cooper in new york alongside Kaitlan Collins in washington, d. C. Welcome to our live coverage of the Republican Caucuses. First in the 2024 race. The first in the nation contest is shaping up to be a memorable one. Donald trump, the frontrunner is urging his to not be complacent. Nikki haley is arguing she is best suited to take on President Biden. Governor ron desantis says he is the only one who can compete with trump on the republican base. Stakes are extremely high, temperatures are extremely low. Results will mean from already intense electionyear. Alayna treene in des moines. What are you hearing in the home stretch . Reporter right, after months of Crisscrossing The State of iowa and pouring tens of millions of dollars into campaign ads, spent the final days before tonights Iowa Caucuses delivering their Closing Arguments to iowa voters and urging them to brave the frigid weather in the state and turn out. Donald trump has remained the clear frontrunner. He has maintained his lead in the polls but a Big Question Is, still, whether or not his path to the public and republican nomination will become more difficult after iowa. We are paying close attention to whether nikki haley or ron desantis will emerge as number two nc where they adhere tonight. A lot of people are trying to see which of them will become the clear alternative to donald trump. That is something that nikki haley addressed recently with our colleague kylie. Take a listen to what she said. How do you make this into the two person race between you and former President Trump if you do not come in second . If Governor Ron Desantis comes in second and he is still in the race going into New Hampshire . We do not plan fs. I remember when there was 14 candidates in the race. Everybody was saying how . How . How . I am showing you how, we are going to continue to show you how. But look and see what the Caucus Numbers are tonight and then New Hampshire. That is what our plan is. Now, anderson and caitlin, according to my conversations with Donald Trumps campaign, they are anticipating that he will win tonight, just like the polls are saying but a Big Question Is by how much of a lead that could be . They really want him to win by a big enough margin that will carry him through the rest of the primary season and blunt the momentum that any of his challengers macy. Particularly nikki haley who they are watching very closely as she rises in the polls in New Hampshire, which of course, the primary is next week. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. In iowa, it is not about where you finish, it is about how you finish. The expectations that come up short. All of that can determine whether your candidacy fights and other days. Give us a sense of the threshold the candidates are ahead . Is really interesting. For donald trump, he does not want to just win, he wants to make history. What would history be . George w. Bush reached the highest number in Republican Caucus. He got 41 of the vote. Donald trump, in theory, wants to get higher to that. Maybe even get up over 50 of the vote. For ron desantis and nikki haley, in the Battle For Second Place, it is all about beating expectations. For ron desantis, that means showing that some of these polls that show slipping in the third place are wrong and that he can regain the momentum. What is that mean . Ron desantis, first of all, benefits from the fact that 62 of his voters say they will definitely show up but ron desantis is also hoping that the recent polls were wrong, like they were in 2016. The final Des Moines Register poll between 2016 showed donald trump at, ted cruz at 23 . What ultimately happened, ted cruz one with almost 28 . Donald trump was in second. Ron desantis is hoping to show that his organization can get him over that hump. Maybe not in the first place but a strong second place. Now, for nikki haley, this is about campaigning in a way for a more general election type campaign. She is trying to appeal to a wider group of voters. Not just publicans but also democrats. That des moines poll shows about 70 70 of people who show up tonight will be republican and 20 will be independent who can vote if they change the party tonight. She wants to appeal to these people. Where are these people . Lets look at the president ial election in 2020. We can see these counties were joe biden won. Obviously, there are immigrants and independents there. They also happen to be where there are a lot of people. The bigger the circle, the greater the population nikki haley is hoping to pick up votes in these Population Centers and really, for both nikki haley and ron desantis, this is a little bit like groundhog day. It is not the repetition that we have come to think but if the groundhog sees its shadow, you get six more weeks of winter. Nikki haley and ron desantis want to be close enough so this Campaign Last another six weeks. Thanks. Katelyn . My guest is a popular conservative radio host, a former iowa senator. Jeff angelo, thank you so much for being here. What are you hearing about how today is shaping up with the weather . What this could look like . Yeah. I think we are going to see hardcore republicans, hard core Trump Supporters showing up. That will give trump the win. I think that ron desantis is feeling good about his Turnout Operation in iowa and that he can get the strong second place finish. I do not think we are going to see a record crowd tonight. It looks like 30 below, zero wind chills as the caucuses get underway. A lot of folks who are hearing the buzz about the Iowa Caucuses were thinking about maybe going for a candidate. They stay home and make chili and Cinnamon Rolls tonight. Whose supporters do you think could be the most affected by that . Which candidate . You have competing arguments from the trump team saying his supporters are so devoted, they would crawl over glass for him. You have ron desantis a hes got people. Nikki haley seem arguing shes got appeal in urban areas. May be easy to get to their Caucus Places. What is your sense of who shakes out the best here . I think you are absolutely right. I think the Trump Supporters will walk through glass or a blizzard to get to the caucus. Trump feels like they are willing to risk death. The show up tonight, i think he does finish strong. I do think that the Ron Desantis Operation has a good Turnout Operation. I do think that he initiates second and will live to fight another day. I think nikki haleys Turnout Operation is not nearly as impressive. I do not think her supporters are nearly as passionate. I think it cost her tonight. I actually do think when she is doing a cnn interview after the caucus is over, she will blame the weather and say well, onto New Hampshire. When you look at what trump has been saying in the past, even today, he posted once he was saying 57 points over nikki haley or his competitors in this race. What did expect trump to have in this race if the polls are accurate and are looking the way they are right now . Would you be surprised to be finished under 50 today . No, i absolutely would not. I think he will win by 25. I think he will finish under 50. I think if ron desantis can finish in second place, he will point out that over 50 of iowa caucus goers did not vote for trump. That means if everyone will coalesce behind the right candidate, the folks who do not want trump to be the nominee would be successful in pushing him out as the nominee. He will argue it is him. Ron desantis, he is the guy that Everybody Needs to coalesce around. It is a momentum game. And expectations game. If he can get momentum and be expectations tonight, i think he goes into New Hampshire saying i am the legitimate Alternative Candidate to donald trump, not nikki haley. Trump wins tonight, he will have done something that we do not often see someone who wins. Not come to the state very much. Did not do a 99 counties. Not only did he not get the governors endorsement, hes been attacking kim reynolds in this role remarks he made in his speech. What do you make of that if i once still reward him . If he still wins even though he has not spent a lot of time in the state and has attacked the governor . I think donald trump is a political unicorn. The likes of which we will never see again. I think he defies all the rules. He has been defying all the rules. Remember, it was in iowa that he said i like my war heroes not captured, recovering referring to john mccain. He gets to defile the rules we understand in regard to how politics operates. I think he is a political unicorn. I think after this campaign is over, i think we really need to go back to more of the normal politics we have come to expect, including Retail Campaigning in iowa. He is allowed. He is giving a path to defile the political rules because he is still seen as an outsider by the people who support him even though he has been president. He successfully attends that Outsider Image and they give them a pass and all the normal political rules that apply to a ron desantis or nikki haley. Jeff angelo, we will be watching closely tonight. I know you will too. You bet, thank you. This will be the coldest Iowa Caucuses on record. One of the candidates doing about it . We will tell you, nextxt. Iowa republicans are going to face a brutal pole in just a few hours. Tonight, temperatures are expected to drop of low below zero. Some states could hit 13 below. Wind chill that could be like 35. Concerns of the frigid weather could impact turnout but the candidates are hoping voters will not be deterred. As sick as a dog, even if you vote and then pass away, it is worth it, remember . Is probably going to be less than that and it may even be significantly less than that. If you go out and bring Family Members and neighbors, thats going to make a huge difference for us. We are asking people to do it. Even though it is freezing outside, literally, we have not seen anyone this deterred from showing up to the caucuses. My team is back with me in new york. What kind of impacts is this going to have . I think it will make people question how badly they want to go out tonight. Particularly in those venues where we heard earlier, things like shuttling people from parking to their venues. From those venues that may have longer lines because you have to check in, you get your form, you listen to speeches, you do your votes. For people who see a big line, maybe they will say i am not so sure. Particularly, for nikki haley, a big portion of her supporters say they are democrats who want to reregister as republicans and independent. In cold weather like this, theyre probably going to say is that really what i want to do tonight . This is part of what i think really favors donald trump and ron desantis. Also, they their canvassers were volunteers. The difference is when somebody knocks on your door with passion and they want to evangelize you about their candidate, it is very different than someone who has been paid curious Talking Points. Says can you please come . Do you think it hurts nikki haley the most . I do not think it we know who it hurts because there are so many variables. You look at donald Trump Supporters is the strongest, its rural areas where you have far to go on icy roads. I would say it is not the cold that matters it is the wind and ice on the road. Iowa is used in cold. Casey did an interview from mars coffee house, a small chain in des moines. She was dressed for the south poll. The person she was interviewing was wearing a light jacket. We see people going to these events and some of them are wearing shorts. They are dressed like john fetterman. The cold is not bother these people. If it is windy, it could affect donald trump. For the reasons laid out, it could affect nikki haley or ron desantis and make some of the calculus really difficult. It is hard to tell. To your point, also, trumps voters tend to be most enthusiastic in rural areas but also, compared to the Enthusiasm Level of other voters, they are more enthusiastic. How does that pale against the more Urban Dwelling nikki haley voters . Frankly, they do not have to go out to their car that far to get to the place. The most exciting part about right now is that it is about to start. The game is about to begin and it is not a game. It is a contest for democracy. We have been talking about it, waiting for it, and speculating about it for four years. It is now. This time tomorrow, we will know what is happening. Somebody will be up, somebody will be down, somebody may be out. We will have some details. Look. Democracy decisions are made by people who show up and people who live in iowa have a privilege and a Response Ability to show up. The Trajectory Implications for this nomination and for the entire election will be set by this race. If this is closer than expected, we can have a real race on our hands. If donald trump puts this away, that could be a failure to complete. Despite 180,000 people out of the state of 3. 1 million boat . That is not a representative election. We need people to show up and take the Response Ability so loosely because they are setting the table for all of us in the united states. If nikki haley beats ron desantis for second place, what is that mean for her campaign heading into New Hampshire . It gets her momentum. We see she is doing quite well in New Hampshire. It gives her a lot of momentum going into New Hampshire which could also influence South Carolina, which she is behind donald trump. If that starts to really resonate with people and they see actually, maybe there is an electric for her, that could change peoples minds. Iowa is not about who wins it. It is who emerges. If nikki haley comes in second place, and this is where the weather gets interesting on this. It means ron desantis is campaign is over. He does not go to New Hampshire or South Carolina, he goes back to florida. Everybody is in until they are out. That is always the case. Chris cristi was not leading the campaign until the moment he did. John avlon, thank you. We will take a look at what the main issue is driving iowans are. Special coverage continues next. Coverered starts t today at fou only on cnn. My sport propels me forward. Contra Costa College Saw Potential in me that i didnt know i had. Focus. Determination. Drive. Contra Costa College helped me blaze the trail. Now im a comet, and theres no stopping me. Come on, this is your shot. Take it. Join the team at contra Costa College. Start today at contracosta. Edu no systematic issues with Caucus Locations or precincts. I had up tonight caucuses. The site the weather, the show was still on. Covering all of this live. Lets talk about what you have been hearing from voters. Wouldve they been telling you . Reporter kaitlyn, i have been back and forth the last several weeks. I can tell you a number of issues are driving them. Sometimes, i am really struck by how thoughtful the questions are. Some ask about returning civility to our politics. Others ask about foreignpolicy immigration. As we speak some of the candidates are on the Campaign Trail right now. Still in conversation with these voters trying to make up some time that they lost during those two snowstorms last week. Take a listen to what they are telling them. You are never going to have an opportunity to have your voice pack more of a punch than it is tonight. Remember. Today is the day we make history. Today is the date we make history because we tune out the noise of the media, the politician, and we raise the voices of americans that say we want a better day. We are going to make it happen. Thank you. God bless you. Lets do this i just got off the phone with john palmer. He is a retired iowa pastor. He has prayed for Governor Ron Desantis during a number of events. He actually told me he is switching his support from Governor Ron Desantis to nikki haley. That gives you a sense that nikki haley and ron desantis are competing for the same voters as they are locked in this Battle For Second Place, kaitlyn. Thank you. I want to bring back my panel with me now. When you are looking at this and hearing what Governor Ron Desantis is saying, making this argument more broadly to voters that if they care about policy and these issues, they should pick him. What happens if he doesnt come in the second place tonight . What is the message they are sending . Iowa can be a springboard for nikki haley. I know hes got a lot of events scheduled but is one of the other panelists said, you are in this race until you are not. Governor christie is a good friend. He had a set up for next week and then dropped out. Hes going to have to look in the mirror and the side of the of a path forward. One thing a lot of candidates are looking for is what happens when the Supreme Court ruling in early march. Motivation for all of these candidates to play this out as long as possible. Most believe the Supreme Court is going to allow donald trump on the ballot but every politician has a grain of hope in their mind thinking maybe there is a chance they can absorb some of his voters if he is not on the ballot. It is unlikely but that goes through their mind. Maybe they will stay in the race longer even if they dont do very well here in New Hampshire because they are holding out hope that something could trip up tromp down the road . The challenge is ron desantis is running out of money. You dont get out of president ial politics because you are losing, it is because you are broke. Were going to see how much money he has on hand if he comes in third place. That will dictate more than anything else, how much ron desantis is a candidate for president. This is the thing that donors are talking about right now. If they do not want to support and keep funding a campaign that has a narrow path. I would also watch ron desantis. He needs to ask himself how lean is he willing to make his operation if he does not have a good night tonight . It is not unheard of for stubborn politicians to continue the president ial campaign and cut it up as much as they can to continue. That is a question that ron desantis is going to have to answer for himself. Again, i am not sold on this being a bad night for ron desantis. This is a state that he is focused on. He is a serious Ground Operation. I am terrible with predictions anyway. Lets see it unfold. Again, the looming questions over this night. One of the big ones is ron desantis going forward. You did predict michigan is going to beat alabama but we will get into that. If you are looking at trumps mindset, as we so often you going into this, he is posting today criticizing nikki haley, ron desantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy. She does not think he can win a general election because she does not have mega supporters behind her and she never will. This is a close as he is probably gone to ron desantis and saying he is mad at light. Candidates who are in the vein of nikki haley cannot win a general election. That is against donald trump himself. He has a way to turn the argument around against him on someone else. He is going after haley because he is threatened by her. If she is able to beat him in New Hampshire, that shows that it is a possible thing and could create a provision structure down the line of people are not exactly enthralled. These are a lot of ifs. People who dont like donald trump in the Republican Party. If he keeps spending money against her, if he keeps spending money and talking about her, that is all you need to know. He would be completely ignoring her. She is right. I told derek jeter this one time. You never know who is watching. Right now when you guys were talking about donors watching this, they are closely watching this to see where ron desantis finishes. You are talking about leaning the operation. I do not even know what that is feasible in terms of what he did in iowa. He has not focused in New Hampshire. Hes going for a town hall. Hes focused his South Carolina. Tonight is a pivotal night. We are going to wake up tomorrow morning in either ron desantis is going to be in this race, were going to get a surprise, or chocolate. The margins in what trump is aiming for. He would like to put this race to bed tonight. He is going after Vivek Ramaswamy, which i think is notable because he did get about 8 in the Des Moines Registered poll that came out on saturday night. Is there a concern that he could cut into the margins . I think it is a concern not just for iweb for New Hampshire. Donald trump may need those boats. Vivek ramaswamy and ron desantis are six and five in New Hampshire. I think it has as much to do with New Hampshire as it does with iowa and what donald trump is saying about Vivek Ramaswamy. I have talked to folks in the Trump Campaign. We want to win by 12. They are relowering expectations. Internally, their Campaign Team recognizes the largest in history was bob in 1988 when he won 13 points. They figure if they can do that, they can claim history. The challenge is this. He is not just running as an open primary field. There is a lot of answering to do if he doesnt hit 50 . Regardless, the spread is what it is. A front runner going into not just tonight and i will, but likely in New Hampshire. This thing goes on for a while and goes into South Carolina, that is going to be the primary to watch, i think. Because ron desantis is flying after iowa, because donald trump is so popular there. Look. Because it is such a conservative state, i think that will be what is important to watch after this if all of these candidates or most of them stay in the race. It is a lot of oxygen between New Hampshire and South Carolina this year. It is Something Like 30 days between the two . That is a lot of money, a lot of time. You are ron desantis, you need money to continue your campaign down there if that is where you are going to focus. You can see all of them have positioned each other in the different state. Ron desantis is focused on iowa, nikki haley is on New Hampshire. Donald trump is not even looking at them. He is not even looking at these candidates. He is focused on hammering them tonight, winning New Hampshire. By january 25th, lets all rally behind me. One of them wins tonight, or New Hampshire next week with nikki haley, it is going to be interesting to watch. All eyes during South Carolina, that is for sure. That is like three quotes you dropped. I am really impressed by that. Right now, republican candidates are making those final appeals to voters in iowa ahead of the caucuses. What can we expect from young voters . Young republicans . That and much more in our Special Coverage, right after this. There is a lot of information out there. Hamas is a Terrorist Group oppressing the Palestinian People. Hamas refused a continued ceasefire, a continued pause in fighting and more aid from israelis in exchange for just freeing more hostages. Instead, hamas resumed attacks. Not to protect the Palestinian People or obtain peace, only to destroy israel. We must stand against hamas and stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. The Iowa Caucuses start in less than five hours. Young republicans may have a larger than expected say tonight because the deep freeze could keep some of the older ones home. Joining me now from West Des Moines is the chair of the iowa federation. This is his second time voting in the Iowa Caucuses. Thank you for being with us. For young voters, what is more important tonight . Electability or the issues . When it comes down to it, i think electability. We want to be unified for a candidate against President Joe Biden but a lot of conversation around the issues as well. Mainly, affordability for housing. Making sure they have access to great jobs after graduation. A lot of the cultural issues like the efforts of all of that. A lot of those issues are being talked about and seen on College Campuses. Definitely topoftheline for young republicans in the state. What about turnout tonight in terms of actually going out . I think we are really energized at the college level. Students are just coming back from winter break. Getting settled into their dorms and shoveling out their car from the last couple days of the blizzard. Today, we have seen the plows out and getting the snow removed. I think we are expecting great turnout tonight, especially on the College Campuses. We have had candidates from around the cycle come into Different College campuses speaking with voters and trying to court that key demographic. I know in des moines and at university, weve had students volunteering and working on campaigns. Simply going to caucus events whether that is at a local diner or big on rallies like we see with President Trump. A lot of energy on the ground, despite the weather and today, i think we are at 1 degrees and it feels like summer compared to the last couple days. Do you think most young republicans know which candidates they are going to vote for or are more undecided . I think a lot of them have joined. Weve had a lot of people volunteering, whether that be through phone banking, going to rallies in showing their support. I think a lot of people have settled on their candidate. You saw the firm base for President Trump. Played a key part of turning iowa read in 2016 and doubling down with him in 2020. A lot of those pivot counties that voted for obama twice and then double down on trump again. I think we also have a lot of students better saying hey, maybe there is an alternative. Nikki haley, ron desantis, Vivek Ramaswamy. Im to be watching tonight. Big College Campuses like ames, iowa state. University of iowa, up in cedar falls. Is getting to the caucus sites an issue . Are they near or on College Campuses . Yeah. A lot of them are a short drive away. Less than a five minute drive away. I know some of them at University Of Iowa are just a quick walk down the street. Definitely, we are encouraging students to go. Make sure you have plenty of time to get there, like we have covered on cnn. They start at 7 00 but try to get there around 6 30. Make sure you have plenty of time with the roads, the walkways to make sure you get there safely and get inside to where it is warm. Definitely, close to campuses and like i said, its going to be a huge turnout tonight for Young Conservatives across the state. Do you think one candidate has been better at reaching out to young voters than others . I think its been a pretty mixed bag. A candidate like Vivek Ramaswamy who is an outsider who has been really active on social media and trying to court the younger vote has been a huge candidate this cycle but i think continuing President Trump and desantis have had a huge ground game in the state of iowa. Whether that is knocking doors, the text, the huge event that they are inviting students to that has played a big role. I think Ambassador Nikki Haley has had a lot, going to a lot of campuses and really appealing to a lot more of the moderate students that stayed home in 2020 or voted democrat in 2020. Maybe our thinking i want to come back to the Republican Party if it was an investor like haley. Definitely a mixed bag like we see in the poll but i definitely key candidates making huge strides with the vote in the state. Good luck to you tonight. I hope you get there and its not too cold. Thanks so much. Thank you, anderson. As island publicans get ready, democrats keeping a close eye on the contest. What are they watching for . We will talk about that, next. Get over here kids. Time for todays lesson. Wow. Whoa. What are those . These are humans. They rely on something called the internet to survive. Huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die . Worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look they figured out a way to keep the internet on. Yeah nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. And see migration in theaters now. Of the Biden Campaign is closely watching the Iowa Caucuses today alongside the rest of us. The Communications Director tell cnn they are gearing up to make the november election a fight about more freedom and democracy in the united states. Weve got this, the Biden Campaign announcing the big fundraising hall earlier today. What are they looking for in tonight caucuses tonight . Even if President Biden is not on any ballots tonight, the Biden Campaign is very much mostly watching what happens in iowa tonight to try to glean anything they can about the beginning of this process on the republican side that will ultimately determine who President Biden goes up against in november. As with so many people that are paying attention to the selection, the widespread view within the Biden Campaign and many of bidens allies at this moment in time, it is certainly that the expectation is that President Biden will be going up against donald trump, november. We are seeing an interesting happen where there is, of course, the possibility that if something goes awry or unexpected in this race on the other side of the aisle, of course, there is always the possibility that somebody else ends up having a moment or emerging the nominee and interestingly, i was just listening to the Biden Campaign holding a press conference in iowa. Illinois governor j. B. Pritzker was casting the field as a field of trump mini mes. I thought that was interesting because they are acknowledging, yes, it is trump we are making preparations to run up against but all the other candidates that are trying to defeat him, they espouse similar ideas as donald trump, the former president. I think that is an idea that we are going to hear from the campaign and as this pressure was going on, they were leaning heavily into abortion rights and reproductive rights. That, of course, as you know very well is expected to be a very big theme heading into the fall. Something that is worked very well for the Biden Campaign. We will see if it continues to do so. Joining me is howard dean, former Democratic National committee chair, also former vermont governor and president ial kennedy who ran in this race not too long ago ago. Given that, what are you looking at tonight . What are you looking for in these caucuses tonight and what stands out . Im looking at two things. One is turnout. This is the coldest caucus they have ever had and its going to be hazardous for people to come to the polls, especially older people in rural areas. Trumps strong suit. The second, i am looking to see if nikki haley can beat ron desantis. If she does, shes going to beat him in New Hampshire, and that is probably the end of the ron Desantis Campaign. The third thing im looking at is what are the margins if trump gets to 50 or not . If he doesnt, he has some trouble on his hands. You know what a race like this could do as far as momentum. If there is a strong second sentence for nikki haley, if she goes on to win New Hampshire, what is the future of this race look like . If she wins New Hampshire, this is a completely different race. Trump cannot afford to lose any primaries this early coming in with a 50 majority. That is a whole different ball game. I do not predict that right now but i think it is a possibility. Given what we are looking at tonight with this weather, and you know how challenging weather like this can be for the voters to get out, when you look at the polls and it says who is more enthusiastic, nikki haleys are certainly near the bottom. To that effect what we see play out in the next few hours . I dont think so. The vote for haley is a vote for the survival of the Republican Party and survival of the country. I think most of the nikki haley supporters understand trump is borderline crazy and i think they are horrified. The question is who abate is motivated to come out and who isnt . I think a lot of republicans who want change. Trump is not the answer to change. That is more chaos and dishonesty. Is nikki haley, if she is the republican nominee, is she a bigger threat than President Biden . She is a threat to President Biden. Has a better chance of beating trump bennett nikki haley. Howard dean, as always, thank you for joining us tonight. We had a few technical issues, we appreciate you joining. Think you for your patience. Thanks to all of you for watching cnns special live coverage of the iowa caucus continues right after the break. The cnn p president iaial townhahall, live f from new hampshirire tonight t at nine o cnn. How does one affect the other . John berman is at the magic wall. John, i do not know if anyone has noticed but it is quite chilly in iowa today. It is a real question of if it has a real impact on tonight. It will make everyone very cold. 99 counties in iowa. How many of them are under Winter Weather warnings . 99. All 99 in yellow. The deep yellow have wind chill warnings. The pale yellow weather advisories are going to be so cold. Let me blow this up so you can see it. It is worth it. It is worth it. Des moines, 8 00 tonight, seven below. Forget the wind chill. Seven below, davenport, seven below sheldon. Nine below. That is so, so cold. One other thing i wanted to point out. Some of these counties only have one caucus site. If you are looking for emmet county, not a lot of population but people are going to need to travel in this weather to get to where they are going because this entire county, these counties only have one site. Some of the cities like des moines have many more locations. People do not have to travel as far but you can see how this could have an impact. Yeah. I am with chad. I am worried about the livestock. Livestock does not get to vote, even in iowa, caitlin. John, as always, thank you for that. Thank you for joining us. Our Special Coverage of all of this is going