the rs and ds are tied at 27. it ties a record for an independent showing, making them the largest political bloc in the country. but then there's times columnist stevens who sums it up as follows, barring a political miracle or act of god, it's overwhelmingly likely that donald trump will likely be the party's nominee for president. and speaking of acts of god, you can throw into the mix unknowns like the dire iowa weather forecast for monday's caucuses. this year is shaping up to be the coldest ever, with temperatures as low as 15 degrees below zero, worse with the wind chill. this is likely to affect turnout, where in some rural areas, as few as ten people can make a big difference. but what does the historical data tell us? my next guest says that it points to trump's nomination being pretty much a done deal. as of december 15th, trump led the aggregate national polls