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trump is in third place. but even there trump has seen a 20% jump since september, suggesting republican voters are essentially getting more comfortable with him, carol. >> all right. joe johns reporting live for us this morning, thank you. i know what you're thinking. these polls are confusing. yesterday a quinnipiac poll showed trump and cruz running neck at neck at roughly 24%. last week a fox news poll showed trump with 39% support. and this morning a cnn poll shows trump with 39% support. a "des moines register" poll, though, done two weeks ago shows cruz beating trump in iowa by ten points. but a "usa today" poll shows trump is leading in iowa. i could show you more of the polls, but you get the gist. it's confusing, right? so let's talk about that and more. with me, larry sabato, and caylee mcennaanee for above the

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