Transcripts For CNN Early Start 20120104

30,015 votes. and rick santorum, 30,007. if you do the math, it is eight votes that separated them. and as ashleigh's been saying, you should always exercise your right to vote. that last precinct, we had to wait until they reported in order to get to these numbers. it was back and forth and back and forth. >> like 2 1/2 hours ago. the whole cnn team has been here. in fact, i'm still wondering if they're putting their shoes back on. i saw wolf, john king, gloria borger. we asked them to say. they're, like, huh-uh. most pious among the voters would be me. i'm a new american so i am so thrill when had i get a chance to vote. and i can't stress it enough today. today's results tell you, america, vote. here is the fabulous "des moines register" front page. of course, they go to print before they even knew what the decision was. split decision, yes. but there was a clear winner on the left-hand side of your screen. the clear winner by eight votes. mitt romney over rick santorum. good news for rick santorum. you can't deny, as rick santorum comes out of this vote, those last two days of polling last week proved to be true. he was getting incredible momentum. and both romney and santorum had this to say before the final numbers even came in. >> thank you, iowa, for the great send-off you're giving to us and to the others in this campaign. look, this is -- this is a campaign night where america wins. we're going to change the white house and get america back on track. >> you know that new hampshire's all about grass-roots politics, and we feel very good that we're going to climb that ladder just like we did here. >> so that was romney once he was declared the winner and santorum actually talking to wolf blitzer after he found out that he came in number two. so we were sitting here waiting and waiting and waiting, as all of the precincts and the counties were reporting. and christine romans has a breakdown county by county of how people voted. >> absolutely. let's look at iowa and the john king magic wall, this morning, christine romans magic wall. this is 2012, last night here in iowa. but i want to go back to 2008. remember, 2008, that was huckabee. huckabee was the story in 2008. and he's this orange in the middle. he took the whole sort of center swath of iowa. and down here, this peach, that was ron paul who only had 10% of the vote back in 2008. just that one little county down there in southeast iowa. and then the whole middle here went to mike huckabee. and you haditt romney in the red around here. and then, of course, around des moines and a county here in the south. let's go back to 2012. you can see that that huckabee momentum went to rick santorum. he got this middle swath of -- this very rural part of the state here. these are small farms. these are people who many of them said that they were voting for values reasons. right here down the middle. and then look at what happened with ron paul. he came in with 21% of the vote. ron paul, instead of having one little county, ron paul came up here and got a lot more momentum this time around. so why did romney who had 25% and technically won this thing, why did romney win if all of this is purple and you had this big growth from ron paul? and i'll tell you why. because where mitt romney was-- and this is scaling it now for population -- where mitt romney won replaces with more people. scott county, davenport, iowa, in the center where des moines is, over here by council bluffs which is across the river from omaha. and right down here, this is actually a tie. that's what that green is. so you can see that mitt romney won where there were more people. and that's why he came out on top here. but really interesting to see the ron paul momentum over the past four years, to see that the huckabee style voter went to rick sachb tontorum and how dif it was. >> you know what i love? when you show that graphic of mitt romney's win, it sort of harkens back to the 2008 mitt romney counties. and if you do the math, since we're talking about just a few voters, there's a win tonight, today, this morning of eight voters, right? >> eight voters. >> and mitt romney actually lost six voters from last night. his total vote count that came in two hours ago is six people fewer than he had from those counties you're showing from 2008. >> unbelievable. >> it's bizarre. >> and maybe that tells you that the same people that were supporting him last time are supporting him this time. and the energy and momentum is in the young people around ron paul, among conservative voters who are going for rick santorum. last time it was huckabee, this time they've got santorum. and you've got the static approval and static support for mitt romney. >> i always wonder if there's switcheroos. >> i have entrance polls. i can show you that in a few minutes. >> working hard for your money. make your moneymaker, girl. did you notice that beautiful manicure that was holding the "des moines register"? >> yeah, that's lisa. are you mispronouncing your name? dej dejardins. >> yeah, dejardins. i'm worried about my nails and i'm glad my mom is asleep and not watching, to be honest. >> i love that headline. what does the rest of the paper say? >> right. this is what's interesting. we saw the headline, split decision. and i have to say, this came out pretty late because they have at the bottom what the percentage was when this printed. 25%, 25%, 22%. so i think that was around 98% of precincts reporting. but guys, i think what's interesting here is what they chose to highlight in the paper. two facts about each candidate. mitt romney, "the des moines register" says, his visits to iowa were rare until late into the campaign. rick santorum, it says, persistent from the outset. he stumped in all 99 counties. what are they focusing on here below the fold? on who spent time in the state. and while these two men are declared in a virtual tie right here, a little bit more positive for santorum on the cover of this paper. one other thing i want to point out that i think we need to talk about, while this is obviously the amazing story of the night, we were all really spellbound by it, together mitt romney and rick santorum got 50% of the vote. that means 50% of iowa caucusgoers voted for someone else. so you have to remember, there's going to be a shift now in other states as well. i think one of the big stories overnight, of course, was rick perry who said that he's now going paback to texas to reconsider whether he should stay in the race. and something a lot of folks don't realize is rick perry actually won two counties in this state. he's the only other person to win a county other than these two men. he won two, but he still placed fifth. >> small comfort. >> rick perry also a big story last night. that's right. >> yeah. >> all right, lisa desjardins. >> desjardins. is that the way it goes? >> think of danger dan. >> danger dan. >> poor girl growing up. >> but thank you for that because that is actually going to help me. we've been talking a lot about romney, about santorum. let's talk a little bit about gingrich now because he said he was going to try to stay clean and not attack his opponents. but he's changing his mind. so let's listen to this and then we'll talk about it. >> well, one other great debate. and that is whether this party wants a reagan conservative who helped change washington in the 1980s with ronald reagan and helped change washington in the 1990s as speaker of the house. somebody who is into changing washington, or do we want a massachusetts moderate who, in fact, will be pretty good at managing the decay but has given no evidence in his years in massachusetts of any ability to change the culture or change the political structure or change the government. let me be clear because i think it's important given all the things that were done in this state over the last few weeks. we are not going to go out and run nasty ads. we're not going to go out and run 30-second ads. but i do reserve the right to tell the truth. and if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on his record than it is on politics. so this is going to be a debate that begins tomorrow morning in new hampshire and will go on for a few months. and i am convinced that the republican party will pick an heir of reagan, a committed conservative, and somebody with a track record of changing washington. >> i think it started right there. it's not going to start tomorrow. and actually, did you hear gingrich also call romney a liar? >> it was -- i don't know. i feel weird about that. that made a big headline. he answered the question, "are you calling him a liar?" he simply said "yes." he didn't actually come out and use the nasty language. he just sort of answered nora o'donnell. >> he said yes. we have rubin navarrette for "the washington post." we have john avlon as well standing by. rubin, i do want to begin with you. is this the only way they're going to -- gingrich is going to accomplish anything, by getting nasty? and how did you feel about that liar comment? >> i thought it was accurate and appropriate. here's why. a few weeks ago i interviewed newt gingrich. yeah. i interviewed newt gingrich. and at the time i was interested in the fact that he had taken views on immigration that were different, we were told, than what they thought in iowa. yet he was leading in iowa. and he said in my interview, you know, i have found that if you tell the truth and people see that you're working hard, they'll give you the benefit of the doubt. where mitt romney crossed the line as far as gingrich was earn canned was in lying about gingrich's record and doing so through these super pac ads. and then what really got gingrich inflamed was when the question was put to romney, do you avow these ads, do you claim these ads? he played dumb. romney pretended he had nothing to do with the ads or the super pac. and man, gingrich erupted at that. that's where that came from. he really does think that for better or for worse, gingrich thinks he tells the truth. sometimes uncomfortable truths, truths people don't want to hear. to him this super pac that is spreading what he appears to be untruths. >> i want to bring in mark preston, our political director here as well. because i recall and grabbed it out of a file some ads that mitt romney was running in new hampshire, i believe, about a month ago that were anti-obama and took obama's words, saying -- and i quote, if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. now, those weren't obama's words. those were obama quoting senator mccain. and there was a big to-do made. and obama's camp came in and said you are lying. this is a lie. if you use those words and you don't use the words before it saying i quote senator mccain when i say if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. you know, maybe there is some legitimacy to this comment mr. gingrich was making. >> yeah, but i would also have to say obama is taking quotes and taking them out of context. >> everybody does it, right? >> yeah. it's politicalspeak. it's fortunate that we can do it in this country, that you can speak freely of your mind. the problem with it, though, is some people lie about it. >> has gingrich done the same thing? you know, he's claiming to be the clean machine right now. and he's been around for, you know, a good -- i'm trying to do the math, 1978, right? >> yeah. he was a house member in the late '70s and then he went on to become speaker. >> do you want to do the math at 5:12 in the morning, how many years? >> then i'd have have put his age on him. >> he's had plenty of missteps, nasty comments, outbursts as well. i just don't know if he's done the same sorts of things as he's claiming right now of mitt romney. >> there's a couple things. "a," he doesn't have the money to run negative ads, nor does he have the support of super pacs that would run those ads on his behalf. we have to tell the truth to tell the truth now. perhaps if there were super pacs that were as well funded as mitt romney, perhaps we'd see those ads. the second thing, he put himself in a corner. he said i'm not going to go negative. well, by doing that, he could never go negative. he was never able to put up any kind of a defense which now we hear him say these things which makes us think, well, now you want to go negative when in some ways it's defensible for him to say enough's enough. what they're saying are lies about me, and this is what differentiates myself from mitt romney. but the way he does it, the anger comes out. and that's what's going to hurt him. >> erik erickson, cnn contributor and member of redstate.com is joining us as well this morning. can you chime in on this? what do you think about the way that gingrich is behaving? some people are saying that this is -- this is who he is. and this is what we should expect moving forward. >> you know, he has evolved over time. he has tried to become this fatherly figure in the party shepherding new ideas that he considers conservative, not necessarily others do. he considers them. at the same time, i this i the newt campaign needs to remember, and frankly a lot of political reporters say he can't go negative. it's newt gingrich attacking debate moderators and barack obama and mitt romney that got him to the dance. for him all of a sudden to say i'm not going to do this, i'm not going to be negative. i'm not going to be the guy smiling while i'm sticking in the knife, that's out of character. that's why the tea party members and others have rallied to him is he's the guy who is willing to throw the punch no one else would. >> and lenny mcallester, i want to ask you about david axle r as latest tweet. this is quite a goodwin of santorum, eight votes. "the sound santorum is hearing right now is not the buzz of victory. it's the worrying of the romney super pac preparing to carpetbomb him." so i guess if we're talking, you know, negative campaigning, is axelrod suggesting that gear up, mr. santorum, you've had a bye and a pass up until now, but it's just about to get started? >> well, you know, and that's probably true. right now he's going to have to go after rick santorum because mitt romney did not look like this squishy conservative. at least with this showing here in iowa, he can at least try to promote the argument that he is somewhat of a conservative. probably still not going to stick with the vast majority of tea party supporters. but if he comes after rick santorum in the way he came after gingrich, this is not going to make romney look very good at all. in fact, it may backfire on mitt. i think he's going to try to play it safe the same way newt tried to play it safe at the top of the polls by saying i'm not going to go negative. he had to go negative because newt was about to run away with this thing. santorum's not likely to run away with it especially going into new hampshire. he doesn't have to do the same exact thing. what mr. axelrod is saying, it's a little far-fetched. he's going to go after him but nowhere near gingrich here in iowa. >> we're going to have to take a quick break. when we come back, we want to talk about an e-mail that just came out from the obama campaign. it starts like this, the extremist tea party agenda won a clear victory. do you want to hear more? join us right after the break. >> ooh, that's a tease. ... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's new glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] new glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. and who ordered the yummy cereal? yummy. [ woman ] lower cholesterol. [ man 2 ] yummy. i got that wrong didn't i? [ male announcer ] want great taste and whole grain oats that can help lower cholesterol? honey nut cheerios. the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. hey, everybody, welcome to the cnn election center. it's 19 minutes past 5:00. if you're just waking up and getting ready for work, we have news for you. real fun stuff to watch. this was neck and neck until two hours ago. mitt romney coming out as the leader in iowa by just an eight-vote margin. you heard it right, eight votes. not percent, eight votes. rick santorum pulling it up real well. you know, ron paul not doing what we expected he was going to do, but a good showing nonetheless. it's all on new hampshire and south carolina which are the next votes in the next few weeks. our david mattingly is on the ground right now in aiden, south carolina, where rick perry was expected to be today. but we also got big news, david, that rick has amscrayed to texas. >> reporter: that's right. let me paint a picture for you here. the reason why i'm standing on this street, it's because rick perry was supposed to land here to hit the ground running in south carolina, virtually ignoring the campaign in new hampshire to come here and, to re-establish himself, to reinvigorate his campaign. he was going to be walking down this very street to meet with voters before having a town hall meeting later this afternoon. well, all of that is off the table now. he's back in texas reassessing his campaign. and leaving everyone to scratch their heads, wondering what's going to be happening with south carolina in the days to come. we know that mitt romney has already acquired some backing from governor nikki haley here, but rick santorum has also spent a lot of time in south carolina. expect him to come here soon to appeal to the conservative voters of this state. and as they wake up today, south carolina voters are going to be finding out they're exactly in the position that they wanted to be in when they moved their primary up to ensure that they would be the first southern primary of this race. they wanted to be the ones who maintain that tradition of actually being able to say, we're the ones who pick the true front-runner, the true nominee of this party. now they're in the position to do that again after that close race in iowa. >> i get it. i get it when you move your race up, it's a whole lot of fun. but you also take a hit and you lose -- you lose delegates. and we're still sort of waiting to find out, david mattingly, if the states who decided to move their primaries up are going to continue to suffer that loss or if the gop organization is going to reverse the decision to penalize all of those states who decided to move. i want to penalize him because he took away my christmas break. that's all i'm saying about that. we have other reporters on the ground as well. >> we have dan lothian, yeah. and so the question is, does iowa affect new hampshire, right? so let's bring in dan lothian because there's this flash poll that we did. and there were 554 likely republican voters that were contacted between 9:20 and 10:00 p.m. they actually watched the results that were coming in from iowa. and so we want to know what happened there? dan? >> reporter: that's right, in a word of caution because that poll is not reflective of all of the voters in this state. it's just those who watched the iowa caucuses on television, those tend to be your more dedicated voters. but nonetheless, when you take a look at those numbers, pretty much steady for all of the candidates with the exception of senator rick santorum. while you see romney at 47% from december to last night, rick santorum has jumped from 5% in early december to 10% last night. i was at senator santorum's headquarters here in new hampshire last night. enthusiastic supporters. and what they see there, what they hope this will be is a bounce from his iowa performance. much more than a lot of people expected. it is certainly what they expected here because they said he really waged a very effective campaign on the ground in iowa where he spent time visiting all of the counties there, talking to people on the ground, listening to them, giving people a chance to essentially kick the tires and get a sense of who he is. and so now they're hopeful that here in new hampshire, that voters will, again, be kicking the tires to give him a second look, and they believe that that surge that happened in iowa will continue here in new hampshire. now, we should point out according to his campaign, rick santorum will be arriving here sometime this afternoon. he will be doing a number of media interviews but then also has a big town hall style meeting here in new hampshire as well. so, again, we'll be closely watching to see how the numbers, the results of iowa will impact the race here in new hampshire ahead of the new hampshire primary. >> i don't know if we're expecting such a nail-biter. stay tuned there for us because we're going to check in with you again. thank you very much for that. >> it was a nail-biter because they lost votes. clinton county was trying to find out where some of these votes were. and it was critical because we're talking about an eight-vote win. the two women -- >> sweet ladies -- >> who were trying to figure out what this debaucebacle was, if isn't enough for you to come back and listen to their conversation with wolf blitzer, it's edith and carol coming up. >> they said maybe they should do a little show for them, right? dad, why are you getting that? is there a prize in there? oh, there's a prize, all right. [ male announcer ] inside every box of cheerios are those great-tasting little o's made from carefully selected oats that can help lower cholesterol. is it a superhero? kinda. ♪ welcome back to "early start." along with ashleigh banfield. so we had a classic moment happen on air. we were trying to figure out, there were some votes missing, what was happening. and so -- >> it all came down to one county. in this nail-biter, it all came down to clinton county. wolf blitzer, bless his heart, the energizer bunny of politics, was on the air for, what, 1,000 hours. 1,000 hours last night. and he got a telephone conversation wh the two women who are essentially responsible for figuring out the mess. >> they've been at this for a very long time. so these are not novices. these women know what they're doing. >> edith pfeiffer is the clinton county gop chair woman and carol is the president of the clinton county republican women. and he got both of them on the phone. >> yeah, listen to this. >> we've got two women calling in -- we've actually called them from clinton county from the republican party in clinton county. edith, can you hear me? >> yes, i can. >> carolyn is with you as well? >> question. yes. i received a call from about 12:20 from the state central committee asking if i knew how to get ahold of someone from 2-2. at that time they gave me a name, and i tried calling because it's late here. they were in bed. and the chair was also in bed. i needed information, so i came to edith's home and pounded on the door and woke her up and got her up. >> ward 2, precinct 2. who won? >> mitt romney won with 51 votes. rick santorum and ron paul tied with 33 votes each. >> so that's 51 to 33. if this is the missing precinct, wolf, add it up there, mitt romney wins by 20-something votes. >> what's the total for clinton county, romney, santorum, paul? >> oh. are they correct? i haven't done -- i -- oh, god, i added them up. i added them up a couple times. oh, man. i show romney coming up with a total of 437 votes. from clinton county. santorum had 354. perry had 73. paul had 292. huntsman, 12. gingrich, 151. michele bachmann, 62. and there were five votes for herman cain. >> the numbers we just received from the county chairwoman right here in clinton county. if these are the numbers -- >> what do you mean, the numbers don't match? >> just to be precise, we didn't wake you up, the state chairs in des moines, they called you. they woke you up, is that right? >> no. i woke her up. this is carolyn. >> carolyn woke her up to get the numbers -- >> because they were waiting for the results is what i was told by the party. and so i came to wake up edith who didn't answer her phone. >> you ladies don't have any fresh coffee brewed, do you? >> no, but i think i'm ready for it. >> guess what? joining us now on the phone, edith and carolyn. let's give them a big round of applause. let me start with edith. edith, thank you so much on behalf of all of us, on behalf of the american people, we want to thank you for clearing up this mystery. tell us how you feel right now, edith. >> i am just overwhelmed with all of this. >> you're trending worldwide apparently on twitter, i just learned from ali velshi. are you big on the twitter? >> not so good. and i got an ipad for christmas, but i don't know how to work it yet. >> would you ladies like to be the co-anchors of a new cnn program, "cnn after dark"? >> "cnn after dark." ooh! man, that's working it. >> and worldwide trending on twitter. so mark preston, i have to say this, he's the one who actually got those two women on the phone for us, so thank you for that. that was fantastic. >> our political director. good morning, everybody. there's mark. there he is. love him! it's 5:31. >> worki ining nonstop. i want your rolodex, by the way. >> you want to talk to them at 2:30 a.m.? >> yes, i'm up. if you were sleeping, what happened was this. take a look at this. mitt romney, 30,015 votes, santorum, 30,007, only 8 votes separated them. and the reason that wolf blitzer walked out of here with john king and the crew that you saw at the wee hours of the morning is because this came down to the last precinct reporting. and those eight votes really counted, folks. when it's your turn, get out and vote because you just never know the difference that you can make. >> yeah, closest caucus in iowa history. not the closest caucus ever. that goes to guam, one of our protectorates. that was a seven-vote difference between hillary clinton and president obama back in 2008. but darn close, nonetheless. so exercise your right to vote is the headline coming out of there. and the headline coming out of the "des moines register" is -- it's a split decision. now, they go to press before they even get the answer to the question who won. and they essentially put this up because you know what? if you look at the numbers, an eight-vote split really means santorum did get somewhat of a win out of this. i think it's going to be romney with the win with the endorsement coming out today. >> john mccain. >> i love that story that john mccain is coming out today in new hampshire to endorse mitt romney. okay. if you don't remember back to 2008, this is a big old deal because john mccain was in a bitter-pitched battle in that primary in 2008 against mitt romney and beat his pants. and it was an ugly contest. and yet here they come, kumbaya, four years later, and he's going to endorse him. i always love seeing that stuff. >> it's the worst-kept secret. >> kinda. >> they've been talking about it for a while. we're looking forward to that. then we have this new hampshire flash poll we want to share with you as well. take a look at that. >> i always like this because the flash poll isn't what you're used to with normal polls. it's kind of like a moment in time last night. just a -- literally as it sounds. it's like a flash moment of caucus watchers in new hampshire. while they were watching all of our coverage, they were asked these questions. what do you think for your poll? and look, i think romney has an interesting number. >> it just hasn't changed is really what that shows. >> except for santorum. >> which is kind of what romney's been doing, riding this middle ground all the time. it will be interesting to see what happens next. >> he's the tortoise. he's the tortoise who can't seem to push past 25% of the vote which still continues to be a terrific story going forward and gives us the nail-biter as we move into the caucuses and the primaries coming up. >> "the washington post" had an article asking what happens now? because clearly what you saw with the iowa results is that therery aa lot of people who still can't say romney is my guy. so what's going to happen going into new hampshire? he has the lead there but what happens next? >> those buttons that say "abr," anybody but romney. he's clean-cut, he's got the family, he just doesn't have that ground swell of base support. but he does have this. he's got his words and he's good with them. and several of the contenders last night had something to say before they ended up probably going to bed. >> or hopping on a plane. >> yeah. many of them did, too. >> we said three years ago, after being inaugurated, he was on the "today" show, and he said, look, if i can't get this economy turned around in three years, i'll be looking at a one-term proposition, and we are here to collect, let me tell you. i will go to work to get america back to work by making america once again the most attractive mace in the world for job creators, innovators and investors, and jobs will begin to flow like they have in the past. i'll keep our tax rates competitive, get regulators and regulations to see their job as to encourage enterprise. make sure we open up new markets for american goods. and finally take advantage of the energy resources we have here in oil and gas and coal and nuclear and renewables. >> the essential issue in this race is freedom. whether we will be a country that believes that government can do things for us better than we can do for ourselves or whether we believe as our founders did that rights come to us from god and when he gave us those rights, he gave us the freedom to go out and live those rights out to build a great and just society not from the top down but from the bottom up. >> the country has suffered a lot in a negative way. the economy's in trouble. our civil liberties are being trashed. our foreign policy has been a mess and drains us both economically and our military forces. but at the same time, people are coming together, and we had the task with where we are very successful is reintroducing some ideas republicans needed for a long time, and that is -- that is the conviction that freedom is popular! >> it's funny, i kind of forgot about ron paul a little bit. listen, he did well. he had a 21% showing. but because there's an eight-point difference between the leader, mitt romney and second place, rick santorum, we're forgetting a little bit that ron paul did well, was expected maybe to get second place but certainly thought he'd be either a second or third place finisher. >> and so a lot of folks are wondering what were people thinking as they were headed into the polls. and we were actually thinking these were exit polls we were talking about. but christine romans has our entrance polls for us this morning. >> right. because in iowa what happens is on the way in, they ask you what they're going to do when they cast that vote. and so these are entrance polls in iowa that we talk about. and you're so right. one-third, almost one-third of iowa gop voters, almost one-third went in there and said they had reservations about their candidate. when asked, the opinion of their candidate, 31% had reservations. 4% were voting because they didn't like everybody else. they just picked their guy because they didn't like the whole field. and 63% strongly favored. when you look at who wins those categories, ron paul. ron paul folks are die-hard. they love ron paul. he wins this strongly favored category. and abr, you were saying, ashleigh, anyone -- look at that. look at this. 31%, that was the category of people who had reservations, and that was won handily by mitt romney. i want to go up a little bit here and talk about when did you decide whom to support? before december is when most people really thought that their guy was -- there you go, ron paul. and then this is the surge from santorum in december, the last few days and today. this is when you saw santorum really gain momentum. i want to look at a little more clearly when did you decide who to support? i want to go over to the other wall and take a look. so for people who decided before december, you can see it was ron paul handily by 37%. so in december, you can see that ron paul people are slipping a little bit and the santorum surge is beginning, 28%. over the last few days, now it's santorum. santorum over the last three days with 33%. paul is slipping to 13%. and today it was santorum. and even mitt romney, people were even going until the last minute and saying, all right, fine. i'm going to cast my vote for romney. so really interesting to see how the last few weeks have meant a surge for santorum. people voting for romney but saying i'm voting for romney with some reservations and paul really having the bulk of his support the latter part of last year. those people were already decided. >> christine, i love the fact that we talk about how well rick santorum did and what the voters said about it going in because he had a lot of boots on the ground. he had a lot of captains in those caucuses. but new hampshire ain't a caucus. and there isn't all that debating. and you don't get to put your disciples in your places. >> and he doesn't have any money. >> he's big time low on the dough. when we come back, we want to take you into new hampshire because that's where this race is going, take you into south carolina because that's where this race is going, and of course gingrich. >> and how he's perhaps changing strategy or maybe the old gingrich is coming back. stay tuned for that. you know what? we've got a lot more on president obama as well and his campaign putting out this e-mail i teased you earlier. we're going to share it when we come back. r financial advice. back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce. setting that goal to become a principal. but, i have to support my family, so how do i go back to school? university of phoenix made it doable. a lot of my instructors were principals in my district. i wouldn't be where i am without that degree. my name is dr. carrie buck. i helped turn an at-risk school into an award winning school, and i am a phoenix. 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[ male announcer ] new glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. welcome back, everybody. this is "early start." and it was even earlier than regular. it's 5:44 in the east if you're just waking up with us. we've been up all night and been on the air for 100 hours or so. the cnn election center has been very busy. >> there is the leaderboard. romney eked it out, 35,015 to santorum's 30,007. only eight votes separated them. this is historic. >> it's crazy town. >> it got down to one precinct. and we had to wait till the bitter end and some issues with some votes there as to with what exactly happened. >> like bush/gore 2000 all over again. we thought we were going to have to set up camp in des moines, but we're not. we're moving on because we did get a result and we're moving on to south carolina. >> no recounts. there was all this conversation about recounts. >> david mattingly, i love that you're smiling. you got the early shift in south carolina. i don't know if it's as cold as it is in atlanta. that cold front has been blitzing through particularly i think for the candidate you were expecting to follow there today. >> reporter: yeah, i bit cold today for rick perry supporters. he's not going to be showing up as he was scheduled to, instead going to texas to reassess his campaign. coming out of iowa last night, everything here in south carolina still apparently up for grabs. we've got mitt romney who's going to be positioning himself here as the candidate who can beat president obama. that message is going to resonate with voters here. we also see rick santorum coming here, saying that he's going to be the true conservative speaking for true conservatives in the republican party. that's going to resonate as well. but this could be the land of second chances for newt gingrich. he polled very well here about a month ago with a double-digit lead over mitt romney. but that poll was taken at the end of november and early december. so it's been an eternity in political time since that poll came out. but it was clear when the dust was settling in iowa last night that he is preparing to come out of iowa prepared for a fight. >> well, i have one other great debate. and that is whether this party wants a reagan conservative who helped change washington in the 1980s with ronald reagan and helped change washington in the 1990s as speaker of the house, somebody who is into changing washington, or do we want a massachusetts moderate who, in fact, will be pretty good at managing the decay, that has given no evidence in his years in massachusetts of any ability to change the culture or change the political structure or change the government. let me be clear because i think it's important given all the things that were done in this state over the last few weeks. we are not going to go out and run nasty ads. we're not going to go out and run 30-second gotchas. but i do reserve the right to tell the truth. and if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on his record than it is on politics. so this is going to be a debate that begins tomorrow morning in new hampshire and will go on for a few months. and i'm convinced that the republican party will pick an heir of reagan, a committed conservative and somebody with a track record of changing washington. >> reporter: newt gingrich there tossing down the gauntlet, talking about the truth in this campaign, the truth remains here in south carolina, and the chairman of the gop here confirmed this. the race here is wide open right now. nothing happened in iowa last night that would change that. >> you mentioned before that, david, that newt's lead about a month ago is an eternity in politics. and it's an even more specific eternity in gop politics lately because i think each one of these canned dates has jumped ahead in the leaderboard for about four weeks by my math. i think some might have held on for about six weeks, so you're absolutely right, it would be wide open by those standards. thanks, david. we'll check in with you in a minute. >> we're going to head down to dan lothian. he is in manchester, new hampshire, standing by for us this morning. i was just reading on "the boston globe" on their website, this is from santorum's campaign. it says, "we came a long way in just a couple of weeks. the crowds are growing. momentum's building." they especially are expecting to hit the catholics of new hampshire and to actually make a difference and maybe gain some ground there. what are you hearing? >> reporter: well, that's right. i mean, the big difference between what has helped rick santorum surge in iowa compared to here is that you have a lot of social conservatives who are voting, casting votes there in iowa. you don't have that large number of social conservatives here in the state of new hampshire. and so that is where those who might be criticizing whether or not or raising questions about whether or not he can get that same kind of surge here, we'll point on that, that you don't have that large number of social conservatives who can give him the boost that he needs here. but nonetheless, his supporters believe that when he arrives here later today and he begins going out and meeting folks, holding town hall meetings, that people will give him a second look and will see that he is the best candidate who can beat president obama. the key is whether or not he can raise the funds to make him competitive not only here but also in south carolina. he realizes that himself. last night he put out an e-mail to his supporters saying that he needs an emergency infusion of cash. $35, $50, $75. he said he shocked the world last night, but he needs this money in order to pass the next test which is here in new hampshire. >> all right. so lots of folks there talking about his electability. will he be able to pull that off? and the money is a very big issue that folks continue to talk about. so we'll wait and see. we'll see whether that money starts coming into his coffers. thanks very much for joining us this morning. >> reporter: okay. >> and i keep wondering where the money's going to go because that is such a big story coming out of not only just iowa but also new hampshire. that's the momentum. that's the money trail. and we're following it both. we're following the momentum. we're following the money trail. and we're following all of the people and the iron lady and reagan. because i love that stuff. it's almost like grasping at straws. but not quite. got a whole bunch more of that coming up in just a moment. >> be right back. hey guys, brea! ♪ [ female announcer ] if whole grain isn't the first ingredient in your breakfast cereal, what is? now, in every box of general mills big g cereal, there's more whole grain than any other ingredient. that's why it's listed first on the side. from honey nut cheerios to cinnamon toast crunch to lucky charms, get more whole grain than any other ingredient... without question. just look for the white check. aflac... and major medical? 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[ male announcer ] find your program at phoenix.edu. welcome back to the cnn election center. along with ashleigh banfield. we are heading over to wmur joining us from new hampshire. good morning to you. i was reading your bio last night. you know your politics in new hampshire, but you look like you're 12. >> reporter: well, my mom did drive me here today. >> this one's our joke here. okay. so i'm reading online right now, it says, "iowa doesn't have much effect on new hampshire except when it does." so what kind of an effect do you think the results in iowa are going to have on new hampshire? >> reporter: well, look. as you know, no candidate's ever won iowa and new hampshire, yet mitt romney is poised to do just that. he comes in here a very big front-runner throughout this race, the question here in new hampshire has been how do you feel about mitt romney? if not him, then who? going back to 2010, we've had one front-runner, mitt romney. we've had eight different people in second place. we have polling later this week. we'll probably have a ninth, rick santorum. >> "the union leader," very significant newspaper in new hampshire, about a month ago came out with its endorsement. at the time it was a surprise for a lot of people. they endorsed newt gingrich. and in that paper today, james, there's a terrific ad that we want to show. it's newt gingrich's ad. you've got it, right? can you show it? >> reporter: yeah, we do. again, you know, again, this is, you know, an example of how this week changes. this is the most magical week in american politics. just a month ago mr. gingrich was billed as mr. positive. and today after being in fourth place in iowa, he's got a full-page ad in "the union leader" talking about the choice, comparing himself and mitt romney and kind of slamming mitt romney a lot on the issues. we expect to see a different tone from newt gingrich as it appears that his campaign really needs a hail mary pass. >> we have not heard the last from you, my friend. and mark preston, our political director at cnn says he wants to meet you at the airport. i think you'll be seeing him in a few hours. >> reporter: mark's a good friend. >> see if your mom can pick him up, too. >> reporter: he's a good friend. >> we have a lot more coming up, just a few minutes from the top of the hour. a full wrap-up on everything that just happened. because if you are just waking up, you slept through a huge story. >> and show you that difference in eight votes. what that -- the big difference that that can make. we'll be right back with so much more. so who ordered the cereal that can help lower cholesterol and who ordered the yummy cereal? yummy. [ woman ] lower cholesterol. [ man 2 ] yummy. i got that wrong didn't i? [ male announcer ] want great taste and whole grain oats that can help lower cholesterol? honey nut cheerios. will be giving away passafree copiesl? of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. this is cnn breaking news. >> that is correct. welcome to the cnn election center. i'm zoraida sambolin along with ashleigh banfield. did you miss it last voted. >> but only eight of them really matter. >> they all mattered. look at this. mitt romney, 30,015. santorum, 30,007. closest caucus in history. only eight votes separated them. >> what a difference eight votes can make. if you think you don't matter when you go to your polls. yes, this is a caucus, but should we just tell you that even though it's a caucus and even though we don't have final delegate counts out of iowa, we do have that presidential preference. write the candidate they like and they count those names and numbers and that's what we got. didn't even get it until about 2:30 eastern time. crazy stuff. >> not only that, the des moines retch sister, when it went to print, they didn't have the final decision. they decided it was close enough for a split decision. put romney on the left, santorum on the right. they went to print, it looked like it could have gone either way. really like a tie that jockeyed back and forth's in at about 2:30, those eight votes finally came in from the county of clinton holding up the whole process and they got those numbers. >> heading over to christine romans on the magic wall for us, doing a breakdown of evangelicals and independents. why? in new hampshire, it's going to be the evangelical vote. >> independents. >> that's right. independents. and we'll see how people will be voting. >> no surprise, the republican caulk. not a lot of democrats showed up to register as a republican to do it. 75% were republican and 23% independents. an torrent numbimportant number. the person who will change their mind and also change their mind and vote for the president. who led here? the persons who consider themselves a republican voting for the republican candidate going for santorum. independent, no surprise again. ron paul. a diehard early base and those are the people who are independent minded. go up here and talk about born agains for the evangelical christians and rick santorum won this category as well. mitt romney more likely to be in the category of folks -- show thaw -- 57% of the people identified themselves as evangelical and born again and 43% said they were not. you can see obviously how that turnout went. take a closer look -- oops. >> oh, you're not john king. >> i know. it's a little different than the magic wall. i want to look at the gender by gender of evangelical. evangelical visi aal chris men. how they voted for santorum. 31%. ron paul came up with 21% and rick perry spent an awful lot of money and time in the state of iowa. he came up with about 14%. look at women, how they came out. 36% of evangelical women came out for santorum and ron paul, evangelical and independent both putting paul in their top category and rick perry with 14%. there you go. how the independents and evangelical voters came out, both very important categories in iowa. you're very right, guys, as you go to the next state, different groups of voters have different impacts depending where you are around the country. >> you may not be john king, but you are so -- >> second time you've said that today. >> i'm hitting on you. thanks, christine. christine was breaking down tx was critical. john avlon, talking about this a long time n. that is the independent voters. wrote a book about it call the "independent nation." he joins us now -- john, i love that you wrote that book, as we go into new hampshire. you have the critical voice on that. trying to remember the numbers. 48% of voters registered independent? >> 42%. open primary state. critically important because that 42% of new hampshire voters are registered independents, not republicans or democrats. more independent than democrats or republicans. this year in the republican primary they can vote and that makes all the difference in the world in terms of contrasting it with the iowa caucus. completely different ends of the political spectrum. that's why mitt romney has such a commanding lead in new hampshire, in part because of strong support from independents who traditionally voted for the more center right candidate. that's why jon huntsman put all of his marbles in new hampshire. didn't even bother to play in iowa. really, the story of new hampshire is the story of how independents break in this open primary and ultimately is a better test of general election, electability than, for example, the iowa caucuses, but where all the attention will be the next week. it's all about independent voters. >> right. >> trying to figure out who's headed to new hampshire? right? is rick perry headed to new hampshire? >> i don't think so. >> listen in on what he had to say and then we're going to talk to mark preston about that. >> with the voters decision tonight in iowa, i've decided to return to texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race. >> well, is there a path forward for him? is there a path forward for michele bachmann? mark preston joining us to talk a little bit about that. >> well, rick perry was supposed to be on his way this morning to south carolina where david mat mattingly is set up, waiting. difficult for rick perry who is not even going to new hampshire, because his appeal was going to be to the born again and evangelical. however, it would have been here as well and he wasn't able to convince them here. >> is it over then? over for him? >> again, i can't imagine he's going back to texas, re-assess his campaign and then commence supporters especially the. people to say we're going to continue to battle. >> he does, but the question is how much has he burned through? we don't know mouch uch he burn through in the last months. the big question, what's michele bachmann going to do? is she going get out of the jays is it mitt romney, newt gingrich, imploring her to get out of the race and back their candidate ji i don't know how big her appeal is, but it's big. certainly with social conservatives. michele bachmann supposed to be in south carolina this evening. see if she shows up. >> put you on the line. who do you think she would lend her support to? >> you know, the story is -- >> tell me. >> there's a story she's actually talked about doing that, apparently chatter. her old campaign manager said that, in fact, she was trying to line herself up to be romney's v.p. two different scenarios. her politics align better with rick santorum. conservative politics. assume she has a lot of debt, who do you want to align yourself with? money men. >> money men. and hasn't taken any pot shots at mitt romney. has she? >> carefully guarded in how she's attacked him. >> out there live in san diego, weigh in on this. the michele bachmann factor. you come in with a number. grab them in front of me. 5% of the vote last night. i don't think we all expecting massive numbers with the polls going into, you know, iowa caucuses. the 5% is paltry and right down there among the 1% of huntsman. what do you think the plan should be for her at this point? >> it's a good thing she decided not to go back and abscess, determined to make it to south carolina and go in our round or two but i don't think she'll fare better. it's delaying the inevitable for her and trying to figure out who she throws her support to. i like what mark said. probably two minds on this. one, very much in line with rick santorum. you recall, you asked whether or not she attacked or badmouthed mitt romney, mitt romney? attacked gingrich and romney? yeah. she may decide just for the sake of practical reasons to throw her support behind romney in the hope of a v.p. nod. very much probably of mix minds because her politics and newt romney -- mitt romney's politics -- >> an odd matchup there. bring in john avlon here. when we heard from michele bachmann last night, it wasn't a concession. it was confusing. right? what is she going to do? what is that final decision she'll make? kind of made it seem like she's going to stay in, but how is she going to stay in? >> michele bachmann was predicting a miracle going into the caucus. what we've seen, really, a time for prayer. it didn't work out for her. her vote total was actually only around 1,000 votes more than she got back in august when they won the ames straw poll. a sign of a flailing, struggling campaign. she may not realize her campaign is dead yet, but it functionally is. she's going to get a lot of calls today, at mark preston said, from rick santorum and newt gingrich saying, look, get out of the race. her support would logically come to them. other call she'll get, from mitt romney, please, stay in the race. because he wants -- that's the best possible thing for him. so, look. i mean, at the end of the day, her performance last night was dismal. and the bottom of the pack. >> your work, john i don't know if you wrote this to me or blogged it. a note to me, michele bachmann and rick perry might not be willing to admit it yet, their campaign are dead. roundly rejected by the conservative populist. you really mean it? dead-dead, or suspended so they can keep fund-raising? >> no. dead, dead-dead. an old johnny carson joke about after your dead, your fingernails and hair keep growing, but phone calls fall off. she's dead. for south carolina, a bunch of different tactical reasons. you can't come in last in iowa, only 1,000 more votes than in the straw poll and say you're a strong contender, if you do, you're just drinking your own kool-aid, which michele bachmann is known to do this is from obama's camp, it's two points. one, the extremist tea party won a clear victory. no matter who they nominate, embraced that agenda in order to win vowing to let wall street write its own rules and medicare as we know it, roll back gay rights, leave the troops in iraq indefinitely and gut tax cuts -- so are we setting a stage here? quite an e-mail. two part. only read you number one. >> i've got to say, when i read that, that first part about this is a tea party thing, sounded like a swipe at the tea party. mark preston, correct me if i'm wrong, didn't the tea party support obama in 2008? >> we all could weigh in on this. bottom line, that's a fund-raising e-mail probably written months ago that was sent out at the right time during the iowa caucuses and everything in there is traditional democratic talking points and they've wrapped it up in a little package called the anti-tea party. right? that's what the democratic party's trying to do and that's what president obama in his re-election is trying to do. tag the tea party as an extremist group, much like taking occupy wall street folks and tie that to president obama and throwing him off the pier. goes back to something they're good at, explain very, very crass politic. that's really, where we are right now as a nation. >> lots of crass politics. i think. who was tweeting about ron paul last night? said something really nasty? ron paul's camp, tweeting something very nasty at one point. about huntsman. we found your one voter. something like that. you were probably live at the time, i was watching you, but it was nas fi, nasty. >> we have to take a quick break. be right back and talk more about that. stay tuned. 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>> well, there's going to be a rematch, and we're going to go to new hampshire and take -- and take him on, and, you know, we're going to run a campaign talking about my vision for this country. you didn't hear me go on after people tonight. i just laid out what, where america needs to go and how the republicans need to address those issues, and talk about, you know, a strong economy and make sure the economy is going to be vibrant for everybody in this economy and that we have an economy that's built on strong families, too. that message will resonate not just here but will resonate in new hampshire also. >> you made a very personal speech this evening, and mitt romney made a very presidential speech, some would say, going out to president obama. newt gingrich, meanwhile, made what sounded like a pretty angry speech, and it looks like he may well turn out to be your corner man, doing the fighting for you. how do you feel about that? >> well, newt's a good friend and someone who i have a tremendous amount of respect for. i mean, he's been out there in the battles, and i was nehere i iowa and can understand why newt's feeling the way it is. it was a pummeling he took here in the hands of mitt romney and literally every commercial break, and that's difficult when you have someone with those kinds of resources, and i can understand why he feels the way he does, but newt's a fighter. he's going to stand up and articulate his ideas, paint his vision for this country and we'll have an opportunity to talk about those ideas on the debates this weekend, and i'm looking forward to maybe being a little closer into the middle than i was before. >> i assume, senator, you've heard that john mccain is going to endorse mitt romney in new hampshire tomorrow? >> yeah, that's fine. you know, i would have expected that. i'm spriurprised he hasn't done earlier, but john mccain is a great man, and someone who it was an honor to serve with. he has served this country and sacrificed more than frankly anybody that i've had the privilege to know in any way, and so i commend governor romney for getting his endorsement but i'm not surprised by it. john is a more moderate member of the republican team, and i think he fits in with newt's -- excuse me, with mitt's view of the world, and i, you know, i wish him the very best and, again, i have nothing but respect for john mccain. >> you know, we saw or heard a little bit there about this little lovefest going on between gingrich and san tore urm. have you been listening? >> well, in their speeches last night -- >> no, a couple days ago, gingrich talking about santorum in a very loving way. i thought, he's getting a little tough now, but not with santorum. they seem to have an interesting relationship going. the big machine coming to get you. hasn't sufficient iered the att other leaders have, he's been a recent leader in the polls leading up to the iowa caucuses. >> right. take a look at this flash poll out of new hampshire. you look at this. romney has kind of maintained that same level he's already had. january 3rd, then december, comparing to that. look at the bottom. the fourth. santorum. there's actually a 5% difference. this is as you head into new hampshire. maybe a bump. maybe continue momentum, some momentum from iowa. we'll see. >> and huntsman, 13%. we say flash poll a moment in time. last night the new hampshire voters are watching iowa and for about 45 minutes we're asking the question, what do you think this will mean for you? but this is the best part. while you know, jon huntsman is expected to do very well -- new hampshire's the cornerstone, make no mistake, of jon huntsman campaign. he has been focusing on that state, and he was the subject of a nasty, nasty little tweet by ron paul last night. you ready for this? ron paul tweets out, hey, jon huntsman, we found your one iowa voter. he's in precinct 5. you might want to call him and say thanks. we thought it was a hack job. we checked it out. cnn had our folks checking out our tweet machine and it really was ron paul's tweet machine. whether that will have any effect on voters, huntsman has the support he thinks he may, that 13% level, i love we can say, time will tell. >> he famously skipped iowa, and it was 150th appearance in new hampshire. >> itty-bitty little state. >> go around running there. a break. a whole lot more to talk to you about as we come back, including not only the leader board, what it mean, what's going on in new hampshire, but don't forget, south carolina is just around the corner, too. a lot coming out of there. >> and there are already ads in florida. >> the assignment i want. because it is freezing everywhere else in this country. >> we'll be right back. welcome back to "early start." we're at the cnn election center. i'm silvio berlusconi along with ashleigh banfield. thank you for joining us this morning. if you were sleeping you missed a lot. let's go to the leader board. show you the results out of iowa. >> eight-vote difference, folks, and i can't tell you exactly where those eight votes were. some say clinton that county, or maybe somewhere around cedar rapids, and there's more to cedar rapids than just a few votes. that's where our shannon travis, cnn correspondent, is standing by live for us, spent the evening. i was watching you. clearly, you have not had a lot of sleep, shannon travis, as you were going in and out through all the machinations? i saw you counting the votes, counting counts with them, watching it as it transpired and had a chance to speak to two of the candidates as well. tell me about your night. >> reporter: well, sleep, i don't really know what that is right now. i was actually -- actually in the cedar falls area, very close to cedar rapids. a lot of people think they're pretty much one and the same. in terms of my night, it was fascinating being inside a caucus site in this huge athletic center at the university of northern iowa where there are, something like 6,000 people, but it turned out to be a little less than 4,000. to actually go inside, peel back the curtains of this thing called a caucus. a lot of people heard about them, they know pe wover extensively, but what actually goes on there. a lot of friend and neighbors going in and basically trying to prop up one candidate, vote for another candidate. fascinating being inside. >> i had you mixed up with that fabulous movie i just saw a while ago, but cedar rapids, cedar falls. it was a rapid fall, at least for a few candidates. i'm trying to get myself out of that mess i put myself in. shan's travis, thank you. you look very good for a man who barely swept. whatever you're drinking, keep drinking it. me thinks it's caffeine. hard-working man. i'll tell you. >> we'll be right back. good morning. 6:28. a lot of caffeine happening this morning. >> i screech, for us, it's the death of the night, we're not sure, for everybody working at cnn. >> it's been a lot of fun. we've been watching -- let's show you the leader board in case you're just seeing it for the first time. so mitt romney eked ahead 30,015. to rick santorum's 30,007. only eight-vote difference. historic. never happened before. >> and there is the rest of the pack, a good story that comes out of rick perry, probably michele bachmann as well and jon huntsman, too. we'll tell you about that shortly. meantime, if mr. romney needed more momentum with an eight-vote win, he's going to need it. john mccain, the senator to who he lost that state in an ugly, ugly fight that man on the screen is about to go to new hampshire and put all of his weight and energy behind the leader mitt romney tonight. >> so what is going to happen in new hampshire? we're trying to figure out -- we're looking ahead. right? christine romans is joining us. she's got that magic wall. show us the magic and let's make comparisons and try to understand what is going to happen next with the voters. >> i know. understanding what's going to happen in new hampshire what might happen in new hampshire you've got to look back at iowa and new hampshire in 2008 and 2012. this is 2012 in iowa. what happened yesterday. you see all the purple. that's rick santorum. he is, of course, the mike huckabee of 2008. look at the counties mike huck -- huckabee. look back at 2008, new hampshire, this was john mccain territory. the pitch battle between mccain and romney. all of this red here is john mccain. mitt romney has this darker red. look at this right here. two different conticontinue -- counties for mike huckabee. this one down here for ron paul. i want to bring in mark preston who knows this better than anybody. what does all of this mean, when you look at new hampshire, mark, for what happened in iowa in 2008 for santorum and huckabee, that territory, what happens in new hampshire coming up in the next few days? >> the difference between what happened in 200 a8 and what we' see in a few hours, huckabee decided not to play new hampshire. realized his views weren't going to mix well with new hampshire voters. libertarian and fiscal oriented. you know yourself growing up in iowa, caucusgoers tend to be a little more evangelical, a little more religious. so we'll see for rick santorum, though, heading over to new hampshire. >> he's going to do new hampshire and do it big? >> do it big, because he has to. he has no money. the whole national media is at the des moines airport heading east and going to get to manchester. i'll be in myself in a couple of hour. he's going it try to get as much free media as he can. he's got no cash. >> thinking about dropping out because of your showing in iowa, you also want to go? you don't want to drop out now? >> they needed to go down to south carolina if they were staying in the race. rick perry on the rope, says he re-assessing. mon michele bachmann in but not up there. >> and do voters go with -- that looks, 37%, 2008, mccain. >> a house right up here. basically he lives in new hampshire but now will have to -- look, bottom line is, he's going to win new hampshire. right? going to get mccain's endorsement. going to win new hampshire. the real race, between two catholics in an area predominantly catholic. newt gingrich, rick santorum. the real race is not for number one in new hampshire. it's for number two. >> and 2008 and 2012, look at a whole year of campaigning. >> bring it down to one line, christine. it's actually in song. can i engage and sing freedwood mac? ♪ landslide >> isn't that what they're saying? 47%? how was my singing at 6:30 in the morning. >> great. just a little more energy. >> it's not the texas trio, it's really fleetwood mac and stevie nicks that did a great job of it. >> everybody's coming out with their headlines and they're great. >> start with the "washington post." it says romney leaves iowa with the same problems he had in 2008, which is really true here. it says, he's set to leave here with the same share of votes he snagged four years ago in the presidential caucus. >> minus 6. >> around the same amount. back then he spent $10 million. a lot less money spent this time. the question is, what has changed about him? and can he bring that more conservative vote to the table? there are suspicions about his conservatism, struggles to connect with voters, although his wife is doing quite a nice job in that department, if you watched her. >> i watched her fall on her butt in -- remember, she did that cute thing back in '08. she's really a sweetheart. >> she's softened him up, appearing with him, talking to voters and it appears to be working. can he ral are moi republicans arourepublicans -- rally more republicans around his candidacy. that's the problem. >> and good morning, new hampshire. shue have seen my hair. i'll take my ex from texas and tell you something, governor perry is on his way back, if he's not already there. he left last night, iowa, headed back to texas, and the "houston chronicle" this morning is essentially saying that he is going to re-assess that bid, and they're using pretty strong language. crushing fifth-place finish. first loss for the governor in his political work in 30 years. he's an ag mince sistister when there. this is not something he's used to, losing. so despite spending $6 million -- $6 million -- just last month in iowa, he's not going to new hampshire. going to texas instead to re-assess his bid. beyond different, what the "chronicle" is saying to energize and start his candidacy again. on the money that perry spent equates to $900 per vote in iowa. $900 per vote in iowa. >> wow. a lot of money spent on these campaigns. let's talk about that. mark preston, if you can join us over here again, our cnn political director. they're getting him for us. >> get your booty over here. >> he's over there cautalking t christine romans. we need your expertise. john avlon. i'm sorry. i'm new around here. listening to ashleigh a lot and she calls you biff. >> no. no, i don't. i call him fif. it's his nickname around family. >> or john as i am going to call you. syndicated clul ed columnist a talk about romney's problem that the "washington post" is talking about here. last time he spent an awful lot of money. $10 million they're saying. this time a lot less money, but the margins the same? walked away with the same vote here and, is he going to continue to have a hard time pulling that conservative republican core group on to his side? >> well, let me answer the question in two ways, which i think is crystal clear of why mitt romney is having problems with republicans but at the same time is going to win the republican presidential nomination. look at numbers out of iowa, just a few hours ago. the election just called. it shows that he's not able to get over 5 percen25%. we've seen it consistently. >> calls that his glass ceiling. john is correct when he says that. having said that, though, the whole field is splintered and john mentioned it a short time ago. michele bachmann, stay in, stay in. i want you to stay in. it will help dilute the street may go to rick santorum. bottom line is, mitt romney was successful and has been successful because the conservative vote has been so fractured. when he becomes the nominee? where will republicans go? of course they have to support romney. we talked a lot about mitt romney in trouble with republicans. certainly not going to vote for barack obama. >> ron paul seems to think he's not going to be out of the race soon. i'm sure mitt romney loves that. split it up. everybody should stay in the race, according to mitt romney. but ron paul was talking about staying focused, raising money, moving ahead. take a look at this. >> we will go on. we will raise the money. i have no doubt about the volunteers -- there's nothing to be ashamed of. everything to be satisfied and ready and raring to move on, on to the next stop, which is new hampshire. >> well, and he's got lots of momentum. tell you what, he's got money as well. he's got young people. so lenny mccallister, bring you into our panel. you're live in iowa. here's the deal. while santorum did very well in iowa. noble disputes that, boots on the ground like crazy and visited every single one of those 99 counties, he does not have that kind of stamina for the rest of this race. is this a reality check for mr. santorum? lenny? >> it could be, but here's the thing. he did not expect to be able to get to this close to first place. think about it. just a few weeks ago, he was polling in the low single digits. now he lost by eight votes. this is something he can take and recruit volunteers, recruit money and say, listen, i have the washington experience and i am the anybody but romney candidate that does not have the personal flaws that newt gingrich has, or the foreign policy flaws that ron paul has. or who the flub we've seen at the debates that rick perry has had. he can start solidifying that base. ge down to south carolina in a politically savvy state that's used to seeing him in washington from his time as a congressman and as a senator and start galvanizing that conservative base, and if he can do that and start raising the money, he can start making himself more of a formidable candidate moving forward from here. this is something that will definitely give him that bounce if he takes advantage of it properly. >> i get it. gets bounced. i don't know how much bounce you need to move beyond new hampshire, and then to south carolina and to florida. i almost feel like howard dean right now -- ye-ha! i can never resist that sound bite. i am so sorry. jump in here for me. is this enough of a bounce for rick santorum? or has he put all of his eggs in early baskets? >> it is a bounce and he will get a bounce. people wait to see how well he'll do. the same thing that happened with barack obama, if you think about it, winning iowa in 2008. a lot of folks once he won iowa he made -- convinced a lot of folks. convinced some who doubt his ability to win. likeways it's happened with santorum. finish respectably in new hampshire. do probably better in south carolina, but the checks will start coming in. his apparatus will start coming together i think. and i'd like to get back to one of the things mark mentioned earlier. we pundits have it upside-down. the business of romney able to caudle the 25% ceiling and people will come in and support him in the general election. the enthusiasm has to be in to get people out to vote. yeah, they're not going to vote for barack obama but they could stay home and not vote at all. so i don't see how it is that somebody who is consistently at 25% and has 3/4 of the party against him all of a sudden miraculously turns those people around and excites them. you are either with mitt romney today or you are not. he is not very good at persuading the people saying they could are persuaded to vote for somebody. the dye is cast for romney. got who he's got. he's not getting anymore. >> we can't wait to ask him about that. guess what? we've got him. interviewing mitt romney just after the 7:00 hour. >> and ron paul as well. happening for you live. we're going to take a quick break and we'll be right back. . if you replace 3 tablespoons of sugar a day with splenda®, you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. just another reason why you get more... when you sweeten with splenda®. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] if whole grain isn't the first ingredient in your breakfast cereal, what is? now, in every box of general mills big g cereal, there's more whole grain than any other ingredient. that's why it's listed first on the side. from honey nut cheerios to cinnamon toast crunch to lucky charms, get more whole grain than any other ingredient... without question. just look for the white check. without question. where they grow america's favorite wpotatoes. idaho, everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal. start." i'm zoraida sambolin along with ashleigh banfield and we're talking all politics. right? new hampshire is coming up next. dan lothian is standing by live for us there. everybody's headed in that directed now. santorum going with a lot of momentum from iowa. what do we think going to happen over there for him? >> reporter: that's right. that is the big question now. this is a state for the last few weeks has been occupied solely by jon huntsman. remember him? we haven't been talking about him a whole lot, but he has been working the ground here. has made about 150 different stops at events. we went to an event last night here in new hampshire, in peterberg, new hampshire, where he had one of the biggest crowds yet, we are told, but now you have this new momentum from senator santorum coming into the state of new hampshire, and his supporters are banking on the fact that the surge that happened in iowa will continue here in new hampshire as well. they said the reason he was able to suck cede tk succeed the way he spent a lot of time on the ground and people got to know him on a permanent level. now he has a chance to do that here. think about how voters are positioned here in new hampshire. these are people who simply aren't going to rubber stamp anything that another state does or another caucus does. they want to meet their candidate one on one. they want to essentially kick the tires, using that phrase a lot, to find out what that candidate is all about. they don't know a lot about senator santorum. they certainly have heard a lot about him now over the last 24 hours or so. and so his supporters are hopeful that they can get a bounce into new hampshire. then you have mitt romney who consistently has been leading the pack here by a wide margin, and the reason is, it's because he's well-known. >> a big endorsement expected there. >> reporter: yes, from john mccain. >> yeah. >> reporter: right. that's right. and so he's well-known. he has the big endorsement. then his campaign, obviously hoping that he can continue that strong showing here, but it's all up in the air. you never know what will happen until election day. >> all right. dan lothian, live for us in new hampshire. we're going to keep on checking in. thank you. we're literally like energizer bunnies who go week to week as dan lothian wraps up there in new hampshire and he or colleagues of him will hopscotch south carolina, florida, et cetera. let's hopscotch down to south carolina where david mattingly is standing by live. i wonder what kind of bounce, cash, momentum, push, all of these leaders will actually have? because we have two clear leaders coming out of iowa and one clear leader in new hampshire, and i don't even know where the polls stand in south carolina anymore, because they're a month old. >> reporter: that's right. they are a month old. they are ancient in political terms. so it's anybody's race right now in south carolina. in fact, the head of the good here said that he believes that this state is wide open. every indication is that any candidate could win, if they're able to put together the right kind of race here. mitt romney already has the support of the governor nikki haley. newt gingrich will be coming here looking for a second chance. he polled very well in the polls you mentioned from early last month. double digits over a second-place mitt romney, but, again, those are very long in political terms. it will be interesting to see what happens after new hampshire to newt gingrich's status here, but he was very much looking at this state as a second chance, as was rick perry, who now is not even coming to this state at all. in fact, he was the reason i'm standing here in aiken right now. he was supposed to be coming down the street shaking hands, meeting voters, trying to get his campaign restarted and back on track in this conservative southern state. that's not happening now as he's back in texas to re-assess. rick santorum here has already been on the ground quite a bit. he's expected to appeal very much to conservative voters, social conservatives here. a poll, that same poll from last month was showing that about 60% of the voters here, republican voters here, like some of the ideas of the tea party. only 15% or so actually call themselves tea party voters. so that will also have some effect on the support for rick santorum, but, again, everyone here, this is a state very much in play for any of the republican candidates, and it's going to be interesting to see after new hampshire who's able to build that momentum that they need to carry this state. >> took new hampshire then florida and nevada -- i don't want to get too far ahead. you have a busy day. you'll have to figure somewhere to go. how about nikki haley? following where she's going to be? is she actually making her agenda public and align with mitt romney this early or does everybody get to sleep at least a day and night before all of that shenanigan begins? >> reporter: she's already stated her intention. she will be campaigning with him and supporting him. mitt romney is supposed to show up in the state tomorrow. so we'll wait and see exactly how those plans firm up, but it's very interesting to have watched south carolina over the past couple of months. they went through a lot of effort to move their primary back up ahead of florida this year, just so they could be that first voice in the south for this primary. that's something that's very important to them. since 1980, the entire history of this primary, of the winner of south carolina's republican primary, has gone on to win the party's nomination. that's something they're very proud of. they feel like they have been the bellwether state for the republican party. they want to keep that going. so people will be watching south carolina when everybody gets here to start working in earnest. >> i've heard that before, though. i mean, so many different elections where different states have claimed to say, listen, no one's ever lost my state without going on to become the candidate and then all of a sudden, something changes. thanks so much and we're going to watch, actually, david, for nikki haley. that endorsement really was a big deal, and a huge advantage there, newt gingrich, but then with that endorsement, nikki haley, beloved in that state. a conservative. it's a critical endorsement for her behind mitt romney. >> let's check on what's coming up. soledad o'brien is standing by live in iowa. a couple big interviews headed our way. >> very big interviews and a late night like everybody else. i was in one of the caucusing sites. two precinct there's. really what we saw there last night is exactly what matches the headline in "the des moines register." romney wins. the critical point, by eight votes. as we talk to mitt romney, the question, what's the strategy now with rick santorum nipping at his heels? what he is going to do? and we'll talk with ron paul comes in number three, a fiery speech to his supporter talking about the movement. what does he do now as everybody puts their focus on new hampshire? and, of course, we're going to continue to talk to the best political team on television as we look forward as well to florida. see where this is all going ahead on "starting point" in just about 7:30 minutes. see you then. >> i don't know how you look that good? >> makeup and a lot of concealer. you know, i took a cat nap. it really is concealer. that's t. and a lot of excitement. running on adrenaline. thank you very much, soledad. we'll be watching. we're on the south carolina things. that's just the way we roll. two states ahead. back to south carolina, talk to one 69 people who knows politics real good in south carolina. that's in a moment. >> we'll be right back. thrilled. wait. we can have shakes? and boston cream pie. did you say pie? pie. she said pie. pie. [ male announcer ] get back on track with low prices on everything you need. backed by our ad match guarantee. walmart. they sound awesome tonight. and when i do find it, i share it with the world. you landed the u.s. tour ? done. this is fantastic ! music is my life and i want to make the most of it without missing a beat. fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself nonstop. american airlines. welcome back to "early start." i'm zoraida sambolin along with ashleigh banfield. i know we're all headed to new hampshire. we just talked to soledad who's there. moving forward to south carolina. with is, gina smith, a political reporter for the state, we understand the largest newspaper in south carolina. are thru? >> yes, ladies. thanks for having me on. >> are you ready for some serious politics coming to your state? i'm guessing you might have been up ought night, too, watching? >> absolutely. we're so excited in south carolina and looking forward to having the candidates here. south carolina voters are definitely going to give santorum a second look this morning. lots going on in the palmetto state. >> we can't even put up polls on the screen anymore, because we're so committed to the best accuracy we can being here at cnn, that those polls that last came out about a month ago that showed at the time that newt gingrich was performing very well in south carolina, we just don't know anymore, really, with the way things work in the gop race. you know, the peaks and valleys have been too numerous. what is your read in your state at this point? do you have your own polls? do you know how your state is thinking? >> you're right. the last positive, a month ago, ib credibly old. gingrich was leading, but if you look at south carolina polling since the summer, the one theme that stands out is mitt romney has always been in the number one or number two spot. when he was in the number two spot, always behind sort of the flavor of the month. so i think if we get some new polls soon we're going to see that, indeed, i betcha romney is back on top. i betcha the negative ads against newt gingrich affected him in south carolina. what to really watch for in south carolina is what's going to happen with santorum now? mitt romney has never been able to get over a 25% approval rating in south carolina. a lot of south carolina voters are looking for an anti-romney candidate. now that santorum will come out with a nice bounce out of iowa, i think he has the possibility of gaining that anti-romney crowd in south carolina and running with it here. >> so gina, what you can claim. south carolina's known for picking presidents. every republican who's won a south carolina primary since 1980 went on to become the nominee. look into your crystal ball. who do you think is going to win? >> oh, my gosh. i couldn't possibly say. it's way too early. we've got to see what shakes out in the iowa, what happens in new hampshire. definitely i they romney stands some very strong chance in south carolina. i think that santorum, luke i said, is going to get a nice bounce. especially rick perry leaving the state. rick perry, with him out, that helped santorum. newt gingrich, though, will also be -- he and santorum may be fighting it out for that anti-romney vote in south carolina. >> i've got to say, i'm always fascinated by your state. no voter registration. it's an open primary. home of bob jones university. extraordinarily evangelistic and also very conservative. i know nikki haley endorsed mitt romney, but he is a mormon, and you know, that has been something that has been a bit of an achilles' heel for his campaign. they won't allow us to even shoot pictures of him going to his church on sundays. i just -- i just really, i really want to know what your feeling is about mormonism in the deep south and whether that's really going to affect him in a serious way, notwithstanding nikki haley? >> you have to look to nikki haley for that answer. our governor here in south carolina was raised as a sic and as an adult converted to christianity. she's 38 years old. she is our first non-white governor. she's a woman. i think south carolina has a little more going on, a little hipper than people may give us credit for, but the mormonism issue is certainly something we'll have to watch for. i think in 2008, it gave romney problems in the state and he finished fourth here in 2008. >> gina, i don't think there's time for mitt romney to divert but i thank you for your time and we're going to touch base with you real, real soon, my friend. >> thank you. >> thanks. >> bye-bye. we're done. toss it over to soledad o'brien who is live in new hampshire. with serious guest power. >> oh, yeah. >> yes, we do. big

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