Good morning and happy monday. Welcome to Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Im sara eisen. And im wilfred frost. A very good morning to you as well. Well check out the markets in a minute, but first the hot political story. The fbi has obtained a search warrant to start reviewing newly discovered emails possibly tied to Hillary Clintons email investigation. The fbi director james comey wrote a letter saying, emails, quote, pertinent to the Clinton Campaign were found. Former disgraced Anthony Weiner separated from huma abedin. In response harry reid over the weekend writing a letter to comey saying, quote, your actions in recent months have demonstrated a disturbing double standard for the treatment of Sensitive Information, with what appears to be a clear intent to aid one Political Party over another. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law, end quote. The s p dropped 20 points in a matter of minutes on the headlines. The markets recovered later in the day on friday, but much more on that political story in a moment. The various commentators are joining us to talk about it. Well update you on the market. On friday, we saw not just a selloff in light of the story, but very high volumes. The highest volume day for the month as a whole. We are expected to bounce a little positively today. The dow expected to be higher by 46 points. The nasdaq higher by 25. The s p was up 7 . The nasdaq down over 1 with real estate the worst performer at 3 . Heres a look at the tenyear treasury note. The yields are ticking up noticeably during the course of the week. Almost kissing 1. 9 , but staying below that level. And we have come off those highs as you can see this morning at 1. 84. Some of the Energy Producers under pressure with oil down right across the screen. Fractional losses with the german dax down. 10 . The ftse 100 and the u. K. Down a third of a percent. As for the overnight action in asia, some smaller moves as well. Mostly to the downside. Shanghai comp closing down two points. The hang sang barely losing 21 points. The hong kong is down fractionally. And wti crude is down. 20 . This follows four out of five negative sessions last week when we declined 2 alone on friday. 48. 60 not bouncing back at all. Theres been various opec meetings over the weekend where some were hoping for confirmation of an existing deal. Weapon didnt get that. The country quo tas was the expectation. Either way, its been a tough week for oil prices. 48. 60. The dollar at the moment this morning just seeing a little bit of strength. Nothing too meaningful. Its up against all the major currency pairs, but were looking at a. 25 . Nothing more than that up against the yen. Gold prices just to round things off this morning are lower to the tune of. 1 . It is a very heavy week for both Economic Data and earnings reports. Today the big Economic Data of the morning, personal income and spending numbers. And chicago pmi. Tomorrow, well get the ism manufacturing index, auto sales and the fed starts the twoday meeting. The fed decision due wednesday afternoon at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. And on wednesday well get the monthly adp report. And on thursday, look for Third Quarter productivity numbers along with the ism Services Index all topped off by the october jobs report on friday. The jobs report before the election, i would add. In earnings central, more than 120 companies in the s p 500 are reporting this week, that includes pfizer, kellogg, alibaba, starbucks, time warner and more. Theres a fed decision depending on the move in the Interest Rate, theres a 69 chance that the fed raises rates in december. And now were a week and a day until the election. And theres a new dramatic twist impacting the markets in terms of uncertainty. Investors were getting comfortable with the idea that Hillary Clinton was winning. Already youre starting to see the polls unclear whether its related to the fbi headline, but an fbi News Washington post poll showed her up 12 points last week now shows her up by 1. Amazing swing in that sense. If you look at the betting market, its still very confident on the Hillary Clinton victory. You go from 51 to 2. 51. The market still has confidence in Hillary Clinton. In earnings, we shouldnt lose sight of the fact that a number of companies are reporting what has been a better earnings season getting out of the slump or the earnings recession to gross in earnings. And we were told here that revenues are looking better as well. Well be watching the individual sectors, consumer discretionary, staples, top of the list this week. A rare tv interview with the barclays head of research at 5 30. Well talk earnings then. In corporate news, General Electric is nearing a roughly 30 billion deal to merge the oil and gas business with baker hughes. The announcement is expected today. The wall street journal says this will be controlled by ge and have publicly traded shares. Elon musk is making news, but this is not about his cars or rocket ship trips to mars. Elon musk unveiled a new solar roof on wisteria lane which was once home to the show desperate housewives. He showed the elimination of traditional panels and a longer lasting home battery. Its called the power wall. The whole idea of tesla is to sustain energy. This comes as musk is trying to prepare shareholders to propose the 2. 2 billion acquisition of solar city. And hes expected to outline the expectations for the companys financials tomorrow. And shareholders will vote on the deal november 17th. The new generation could be available as soon as next summer, but tesla has given few details to say it will be less than a conventional solar panel. I know you were hoping for haunted house. A little less sexy but still important. Thank you, landon. The banks are reporting the q3 numbers. The focus is whether the rate hike will be delivered with the tenyear yield going up to a fivemonth high on friday. How do you trade the banks . Will they be able to make more money . Today is the last day of the month of trading and financials are the only group that are positive for the month. So they have come up here. They have. They certainly performed well into the earnings and since the earnings. But how do banks actually make more money when rates go up . First, the most important is a very simple asset or low vote generates more income. So fed funds hike immediately leads to high Interest Payments from customers to the bank. Whether the long curve will impact just how big the gains are, mortgages here are linked to longterm yields. Th this. Banks pass on less of a hike to the positive than they charge to lenders, especially at the start of the rate hikes and market share. Finally in q3, the initial rate hikes can be significant with Interest Rate policy. In contrast in the middle of the rate moving from 2. 75 to 3 , the shareholder information is limited. And this shows the numbers for 100basis point shift should we see that. We are focusing on the november meeting than this one. So they are hoping. Certainly hoping. And a new Study Analyzes how the markets might treat a clinton or trump win. On tuesday meet where you should put your money depending on which candidate becomes the next commander in chief. Stay tuned, youre watching Worldwide Exchange. What i love most about tempurpedic mattresses. Is that they contour to your body. You just have to lay back in my tempurpedic, and it just kind of forms to my body. It comes up to you, like hey, there you are. Hey, there you are. Im going to put you to sleep now. It keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. Can i take a nap now . Its our biggest sale of the year. And a great time to buy a tempurpedic, with all tempurpedics on sale. Save up to 600, now thru november 29th. Get your tempurpedic. The most highly recommended bed in america. We are just eight days away from the end of the election season. Looking at activity from past previous elections, joining us is michael pervis. Good morning to you. Good morning. This takes on added significance after the dramatic play out in the markets on friday. Do you is to start processing in the risk that the election doesnt go as the polls suggest the last few weeks to a hillary win . I think either the memory of the brexit, you have to keep that on your radar screen right now. I think its highly probable in my own personal judgment that hillary is going to win. Obviously, its unclear what is going to happen in the senate or the house, particularly after the latest email controversy. But you just dont know. The gauge of this before brexit, it was 13 or 14 just ten days before brexit. And then it started climbing up suddenly. So i almost wonder in this move just eight days before the election whether well see a similar climb higher here. What kind of percentage swings could we expect . It is not as binary. It is not as binary but it is complicated. If trump does win, if thats what you mean by a surprise. We really dont exactly know what it means. My own personal judgment is that the most important sort of takeaway from a Trump Victory would be that it could be a very meaningful impact on what might be arguably the most important asset class, which is the longer term treasury yields. Why, what will happen . If hes going to be lowering tax revenue at the same time of increasing fiscal, thats going to be a recipe for arguably what might be sort of an ammunition for american credit. And that a sell off. That has far ranging implications. What you see in the u. K. Right now is a model of that where initially you have the risk of the off move, but what you started to see is that the gills have been selling off there as well. Will we see that Immediate Reaction in the u. S. As well . The initial buying of bonds and then selling down the line . I dont know if it will be that immediate. It will probably take some parsing through, but i do think that i do think that over probably the course of a couple months you will certainly start feeling it. Again, one of the hard things of gauging the Market Impact is that you really just dont know, a, what hes really going to be doing. We certainly heard a lot of campaign talk, but that is different from what we actually would do once he takes office. And second of all, you dont know what hes able to get away with. He has emerging markets and tough talk on trade. You say to get low on the gold miners, so this will affect the dollars worthiness. The discussion on rates. If rates were to go up, normally you would look at that to be a strong dollar. However, if you take the u. K. Model of actually currency and if yields or treasuries, i do think that getting along gold miners would be a very obvious way. What are the top trades for a clinton victory . I think, honestly, between now and years end, really to be long in the market, you have to be very careful about the big banks. Elizabeth warren is on the campaign trail, but shell spend her Political Capital the way she would want to. So you have to be careful of the big banks. Certainly phrma will take on higher anyone exposed to a much higher drug price is going to be that is going to be tricky. But generally, youre looking at a reasonable dollar that the tenyear yield contains and a more buoyant equity market. The what do you think about the market . Well, i think we have to watch the market reaction. But if we get the status quo response, it will take fed rate hikes which are pretty high for december up to the 80s right now and even further. It will make it a slam dunk. The market you may feel has incremental headwind from that as well. Michael pervis, thank you. Oil prices this morning are losing a little bit of ground after a soft week last week with four negative days out of trading. Lets go to Steve Sedgwick now with more. I spoke to the oil minister in istanbul at the Energy Congress meeting, and this is part of a process. I think people are hanging too much on one meeting. Theres a whole process of building up to the opec meeting at the end of november. Now it is highly unlikely there could be a deal. But if they get progress toward a deal, that could keep a prize under 38. Still trading over 48. One shouldnt discount the power of verb intervention. That can still be enough for the oil market. If opec is producing 28 barrels, or they say they are producing 32, really they are producing 33 or 34. We must be very careful here. The oil market, it has a lot more power than the actually reali reality. It is difficult for saudi and gcc to get a deal. But if they can get a deal, people will worry about it later on and we get the massive over supply. Take a look at the chinese economy as well. Thats a key factor for the oil price next. Steve, quickly as we wait for the big meeting at the end of november, which is the key country oil producer we should be watching in terms of the rhetoric. Frud that is a lot of oil potentially for a country cashstarved and desperate to get the infrastructure together. I will say one thing, i have spoken to a very good man and people say, i want to get to presanction levels of 400 Million Barrels a day. I have it from various officials over the year that they want to go way beyond 4 Million Barrels a day. They would love to get to 8 million. There are technical reasons and oversupply reasons why they wont get there any time in a hurry. But if anybody thinks they are under pressure because of Climate Change and comp and whathaveyou, im not discounting the robbery bush this is a completely different front. Still to come on Worldwide Exchange, the cubs keep the world series hopes alive. And heres the National Forecast this morning from reynolds wolf. Good morning. Well take a look at the halloween forecast. Hard to believe were at the end of october. Ill tell you, before you get to the end of your day in new york, were expecting a high of 54 degrees. Partly cloud duh skies. Beautiful day in atlanta. No sign of rain which is fortunate. Dallas into the 80s. 75 for denver. Breezy times in bismarck. Making your way north of san francisco, clear to seattle. A chance of scattered showers and maybe a nice bit of snowfall in the high elevations of the cascades. Tee times, we have very dry conditions making your way to the central and southern plains. Maybe a few showers here with plenty of sunshine. We have more coming up on the other side of the break on Worldwide Exchange. cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley welcome back. In the world series, the chicago cubs manage to keep their hopes alive for one more night. Down 31 against the cleveland indians, the cubs went into the ninth inning last night clinging to a onerun lead. They turned to their closer in chapman to shut down jose ramirez. Game six of the world series is tomorrow night in cleveland. It goes on. All weekend long i kept seeing all the videos and scenes from chicago. It was at wrigley field. This is a good win for them. Crucial. Pulling it out. A sense of urgency according to the chicago tribune. Another game matching a pair of division rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles and dallas cowboys. The game went into overtime. Dallas moving the ball down near the goal line. The cowboys rookie quarterback scrambled and eventually found tight end Jason Whitten alone in tend zone for the final score of 3024. They improve their record 61. Sorry, jim cramer. Whenever i talk about the eagles it is so sad. In the media and entertainment news, tom hanks latest movie is fizzling at the box office. Sony pictures inferno opened well below expectations. Its the third of the da vinci code franchise. Inferno was beaten by tyler perrys boo that took in 17 million. Quite small numbers this weekend. It was warm in new york. The weather yesterday it was cold coming into the weekend. And then yesterday, 75 degrees. When we come back, this mornings top stories including why the president ial election might finally be starting to really matter for the markets this week. What you need to know. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Good morning. The fbi is sending a letter in regards to Hillary Clintons email server to congress. And todays top story, theres a hint of a halloween seamstress. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Good morning. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange on halloween. Im sara eisen. And im wilfred frost. Futures are coming off a flat week, but heading into the last day of trading for the week, one what was the worst for the u. S. Markets in terms of stocks. Several s p futures are getting a lift up five. Nasdaq futures up 21. We have a fed meeting with a lot of Economic Data on the jobs report a week before the election and tons of earnings to trade off of this week. As for early action in europe, we see declines across the board. Energy has been a theme. Oil prices a little bit lower coming off the lows of their session. That helped the dax, the german stock market off. 50 . Steeper declines in italy and spain. Ftse 100 is up half a percent as well. As for asia overnight, some small moves to the downside across the board. The nikkei near a sixmonth high up 21 points in hong kong. Some flattish trade as well as shanghai that closed down but really less than a percent. Given right across the screen, particularly in europe, its encouraging to see gains for the futures here stateside. Lets have a look at the oil markets, they were soft last week down 4 for the week as a whole. Your negative sessions out of five. Slightly stopping the rise from last week. The tenyear treasury note, almost kissed 1. 9 last week with a high of 1. 88 on fridays session. Were just back from that today. But 1. 84 still elevated relative to where we were a few weeks ago. The dollar today is showing strength off that tickup in yields. But nothing too pronounced. About a quarter percent against the yield. About. 20 now. We are just shy of 1. 05 on the dollar yen. The pound is flat and the euro is down. 03 against the dollar. Oil prices that saw a pickup on friday when the political story broke, that well come to in a moment, are soft today at 12. 7. The fbi obtained a search warrant to start reviewing newly discovered emails possibly tied to Hillary Clintons email investigation. Our ayman jabbers is live from washington. Take us through the developments, ayman, since the headline hit to jolt the markets on friday. That this is being reopened. Thats right. The fbi director jolting the market and the Political Landscape with the litter on friday in which he said the fbi discovered new Hillary Clintonrelated emails on huma abedins laptop, of which she shared with her estranged husband Anthony Weiner. Over the weekend they obtained a search warrant to look through the emails. This is throwing the campaign into a turmoil. The clinton president ial Campaign Manager was on meet the press over the weekend. He was asked whether or not this is going to scotch Hillary Clintons chances of the presidency. He said no, but expressed frustration about the fact they have no idea exactly what the fbi is looking at. Heres what he had to say. We dont know all the facts because of the fbi that has said basically nothing in this letter. We dont know whos emails they are talking about or how many. And according to the news, fbi director comey decided to put out a letter to Congress Without any information whatsoever. And i think that is why criticism is coming in. From democratic officials. You can tell theres anger on the part of democrats. Harry reid, the democrat insenator from nevada, sent a letter to director comey over the weekend in which he all but accused director comey of breaking the law. We have an excerpt of that letter. The idea here is harry reid very upset that comey would send this letter so close to an election. He said, your actions in recent months have demonstrated a disturbing double standard for the treatment of Sensitive Information with what appears to be a clear intent to aid one Political Party over another. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law, end quote. The law harry reid is talking about there is the hatch act, which prevents federal employees from getting involved in tilting elections in one direction or the other. There is also fbi precedence to not make major announcements before the election to affect the election. Director comey here operating under an extreme degree of tr s transparency. Director comey said he needs to tell the American People what he knows when he knows i. I can give you a couple nuggets of new information just from what i learned from sources over the weekend in talking to a source familiar with the investigation yesterday. I can tell you that huma abedin and her team have been talking to the fbi. Theres been considerable back and forth with them over the weekend. Huma abedin telling the fbi she did not know that the emails were on this particular laptop. Thats important because she has said previously she turned over all the emails that she had to the fbi. Now shes saying she didnt know the emails were on that laptop. Also, the fbi is using a Software Program now to go through the emails and decide whether or not any of them are duplicates or whether or not any of them are new emails. That the fbi has previously not seen before. Its at least possible all the emails are emails that the fbi has seen before, but if they do determine anything new there, that is the email that they will look at to see if theres classified material in there if anything is relevant to the clinton investigation. I love how you put it, extreme transparency on the part of the fbi director. In that effort, what is next . We are a little over a week from the election. Is he going to update the American Public as to what was in this letter and what was in the emails and how far advanced it is . That is a really good question. In talking to a source familiar with the investigation, i asked the source yet. What should we expect here in terms of what comey might say publicly . He said, look, were in unchartered territory. This has never happened before. Its not clear what the fbi director is going to do, but it seems hes leaning toward the extreme level of transparency. Typically, they say they dont comment on the ongoing investigations. In this case, now that comey has issued this or opening this issue, it is possible they will Say Something once they determine the emails are relevant to investigation or not and sort of give the public a fear here on whether there is something going on or whether there simply isnt. And i think that is what both parties have called on to do, put the information out to let voters decide. Theres not a lot of time left under intense pressure, if a lot of fbi agents are working on her. Interestingly enough, this opens up the emails in a way that sorts out the dewily cats. Anything left is put in a different bucket and all can look into the bucket to see what is there. They will spare no resources on this one. They have to work all night long if they want to come up with something over the next week, under intense political pressure as well. It couldnt be more intense. This is as dramatic that it gets for the fbi. They dont like to be involved before an election. Typically they dont comment on any ongoing investigation, but now the fbi director writing public letters to notify congress about developments in an investigation. All of this extremely unusual. That is why you have seen the clinton officials talk about it this weekend. The weird point of this politically is both parties end up in the same place, both republicans and democrats are calling for the fbi to release everything. The fbi is unlikely to do that, but they may give us some sense between now and election day of what exactly they found here, if anything. Just the latest twist in what has been a very unusual election. A lot of people weighing in over the weekend. And General Electric is looking to merge the oil and gas business with baker hughes. The announcement is expected today. The wall street journal says the combined entity will be controlled by ge and have publicly traded shares. We wait to learn more about this, but both shares interestingly wilfred and baker news have responded positively. Investors give us the thumbsup. We expect the announcement today to analyze the effect of the economic demographic and disruptive changes have on the society. Joining us is cohead of research barclays. A very good morning to you. Thank you so much for joining us. You have a sensitive environment here in social governance, but particularly on the bonds as well as equitieequities, right . Yes. Does it have a positive impact . It is tilted to companies with high scores and environments, social and governance factors. It drives up performance. How does that feet through . They are actually performing well in the sector. Which companies . What did you find or which sectors performed the best . Actually, the key part about the portfolios is that they not weigh more particular sectors overly heavy than the bond market. The way we design the portfolios, they have very even distribution across sectors. Effectively it came to what the market has, but you look at companies with the high scores in the factors. Is there fundamentally a lot of trading to do in europe. A lot of people push it as something Companies Need to do more. But its a lot of we are seeing very rapid growth in these sorts of mandates. And in particular when you can show that it doesnt cost you to align your portfolio with your values, we think that leads to more rapid growth. Transitioning is another thing to focus on this season, the earnings, are they as people expected . I think so. We think well see continued momentum over the next couple of weeks. What about the election risk now heating up eight days to go before that . How do you recommend your client prepare for the risks one way or the other . Well, we think that theres likely to be a very heightened period of uncertainty over the next eight days or so, given some of the more recent controversy. So being cautious into the next week, we believe that the fundamental momentum in the economy will take center stage getting by the election. The link to the fed policy, what is barclays latest forecast on that front . We expect a hike in december. And we think the markets will be relatively prepared for that given the strength of the Economic Data of late. No matter which candidate wins . Do you think the fundamentals of the u. S. Economy will shine through . Theres certain on the antitrade rhetoric that comes out of trump, which could weigh. But we believe any actual changes would be much further afield and that the momentum will take center stage as well. Jeff, thank you. Great stuff. Some top trending stories for you now, wallet hub compiling a list of the best cities to get the most trick for your treat this halloween. The site comparing 100 of the largest cities based on key indicators of a good time. Among the factors, the number of candy stores per capita. And it turns out number one is honolulu followed by pittsburgh and orlando. Random. Wallet hub also ranks those with the best Weather Forecast for the top of the day. Lexington, kentucky, followed by greensboro, north carolina. Pittsburgh is the win win on both. Apparently we need to go trick or treating there tonight. And americans are expected to spend 8. 4 billion this october for parties, candy and costumes. There we go. Thats a lot. And if youre on the streets of new york this weekend, you might have seen this crazy scary character. Speaking of going all out for halloween, who is that . I dont know. But very scary. Very scary, indeed. Thats just something i pulled together in a couple of minutes. There we go. I had to. 8. 4 million americans go big, and i first halloween here, i went for the costume. What did you call it . Fancy dress. That was my outfit. That was scary. Did you scare children . No, of course not. I wasnt at a childrens party. But no, it was good. It was hard to get off, in fact. Just in time for the show. It looks like it. Happy halloween, everybody. How many hours did that take . Too many. When we come back, todays must reads. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Now for todays must read stories. Theres a lot. Mine is from the Washington Post as james comey is a good man but he made a serious mistake, it says. This is written by eric holder. Holder says he worked with comey, quote, and hes a man of integrity, but hes made a serious error with major implications. He writes, it is imcan bent on him on the leadership of the department to dispel the uncertainty hes created before election day. Its up to the director to correct his mistake, not for the sake of a political candidate or campaign, but in order to protect our system of justice and best serve the American People. And that is the point, forget the meddling of politics nor the moment, this brings into question the entire sort of system which the fbi operates under our department of justice in terms of restoring faith that its not going to get political. And its not supposed to be this transparent without more definitive, exclusive information. Its the timing and lack of information confusing everyone. You felt when it broke on friday there would be more to come quite soon after and that hasnt happened over the weekend, which has led to its quite surprising that eric holder is speaking out. It highlights the level of confusion and uncertainty about what the fbi may or may not have seen so far. My must read is on the same topic from the financial times, a slightly different take called the albatross around Hillary Clintons neck. In terms of the latest developments, he writes james comey was panicked into issuing a statement by the fear that if he had held back, republicans would have accused him for working for mrs. Clinton. And it speaks to this idea that by staying neutral, in fact, hes going to be attacked either way by one of the two. So its not that he wanted to help mr. Trump, but its accused of him going the other direction. Its the response of that, whether or not its the right response, but this is much more focused on Hillary Clinton saying how unique it would be if she wins going into this with negative opinion ratings. Usually a president wins the peak of the popularity. And that could step down throughout the presidency. So its a view on that and includes recommendations including to say mrs. Clinton so should quit the Clinton Foundation because that is going to hang around her neck. And the full market moving events, we have a fed meeting running up to the election. We have a ton of earnings and a job report. Phil orlando, chief equity strategisted at federated investors is coming up next. Youre watching cnbc. Before taking his team to state for the first time. Gilman go get it, marcus. Go get it. Coach gilman used his cash rewards credit card from bank of america to earn 1 cash back everywhere, every time. At places like the batting cages. [ crowd cheers ] 2 back at Grocery Stores and now at wholesale clubs. And 3 back on gas. Which helped him give his players something extra. The cash rewards credit card from bank of america. More cash back for the things you buy most. Welcome back. It looks like stocks are set to open on a high note this morning. Dow futures up 36. The s p up nearly 6. We have a fed meeting and a bunch of earnings and a lot of Economic Data starting with personal spending. Joining us is phil orlando. The fbi sent this letter to congress reopening the hillary emails. So how do you hedge the risks and the elevated uncertainty this week . We have sort of been expecting another shoe to fall. We dont know what the shoe will be. The forecast has been that the market potentially would drop 4 to 9 from the midaugust high in part because of the volatility surrounding the fed and the election. So the fact that this was the event, we didnt know what the event would be, but it just felt like there was another shoe to drop. So we have been advising investors to be cautious and maintain the neutral allocation. Were close to the election, eight days away, why is it taking so long for this to come through on the election . The risks of the outcome have been in front of us throughout. Well, the market has been pricing in a Hillary Clinton victory. The senate flipping. But the republicans maintaining the control of the house. So that check and balance has been very comfortable for the market. The tail risks, these run the table, ours run the table, has not been in the marketplace. And the fact that this comey bombshell on friday potentially upsets the apple card, if you will, is why the markets getting in an uproar right now. So are you a buyer of gold and other assets that tend to do well when theres a lot of uncertainty and some fear . So youve got your typical concerns like gold, were much lower in equities allocation or global allocation funds, sitting at 60 stocks right now. And much more dividend focus, companies that will provide a little more stability in the event that we do hit an air pocket over the next week or two. If we so that, well see buying of treasuries and the yields off the higher levels . Thats exactly right. You go to dollar, you go to gold, you go to treasuries or dividendoriented stocks. Those are things youll typically port in the storm. Well talk about the other risk factor you touched on meeting this week. We are expecting literally nothing out of the fed for the same reason. That the fed doesnt want to do anything a week before the election to potentially impact the market or the election itself. So were expecting nothing out of september, nothing out of november. We do absolutely believe the fed will hike in december. Probably give us another two hikes over the course of the calendar 2017. We think the fed would like to get the funds rate up to 1 by the end of calendar 2017. We have a few big earnings the report this week. Facebook is on wednesday. Kraft and kellogg, pfizer, which ones are you looking for . And what in the earnings are you getting . What kind of message . Well, the message overall is frankly earnings have been better than expected. We expected this would be the ace and last negative year of the year over Year Comparison for the s p. We thought the Fourth Quarter would be pretty good. Right now earnings are up 1 or so year over year. We thought there would be down numbers going into the season. So i think on balance based upon what we know, the earnings season has been a positive surprise. What is your top goal for the end of the year . Caution is the best sector. Theres too much uncertainty out there with regard to this comey situation. It potentially could impact the election. And again, the market has not priced in tail risk as a result. So whats going to happen on november 8th . Today is the last trading day for october. The month looks bad for stocks. If you go back to 1928, the stock market 86 of the time has correctly forecasted the winner and loser of the election based on how the s p performed in august and september. Right now that metric is showing negative 2 with today being the last day. So its interesting to see if that will be a good or a failed signal. Phil orlando of federated, thank you very much for joining us. Great pumpkin tie as well. Happy halloween to you. Good morning. The latest from the clinton email scandal is throwing the political world in turmoil. And the countdown to fridays job reports is on. Wow, that i forgot. Is it friday . I guess it is. What to expect from the october numbers. And it is halloween. Were celebrating with an entrepreneur who left the tech world to produce the biggest jackolantern event on two coasts. Its halloween, it must be october 31st. And happy birthday to my wife. Squawk box begins right now. Live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box. Im Andrew Ross Sorkin along with joe kernan and kayla tou e touche. You wore your pumpkin tie. Those are beautiful squawk pumpkins to celebrate. I have to remember its halloween. You have a double reason. If i