Im wilfred frost. Lets get right to the markets. Little pressure for u. S. Equity futures after stocks closed higher yesterday across the board but still lost some of their earlier gains the dow finishing higher by 88 points. Futures now pointing to a weaker start down 26. S p futures down nearly five points. Nasdaq futures down almost six. As for the ten year treasury note yield the bond market was closed yesterday columbus day holiday back open today. 1. 77. Strong driver for stocks like financials and utilities, both of those in opposite directions depending on what yields are doing. This morning yields are higher and dollar stronger indicating that higher odds that the fed moves this year on Interest Rates. Yields going slightly the other direction in europe and the uk this morning so just showing that strength of momentum in pushing yields higher in the u. S. Managing to buck the trend of european yields. Lets have a look at european equities though right now and at the moment as you can see pretty much mixed. The ftse 100 an outperform certificate up because sterling is down. Other indices slightly softer but nothing too meaningful. Asian trade lets check in on that. We got a bit of strength for japan, hong kong down more meaningf meaningfully. Yoil prices oil driving the rally in stocks yesterday with the jump in wti helping energy shares. In a new report today the International Energy agency says the Oil Market May rebalance faster if opec sticks to its target but the iaea notes its hard to tell when this might happen until more details emerge. Were talking about target to cut production. More discussion about that yesterday at a key Energy Conference sending wti prices to close at the highest level since the summer of 2015. Were backing off that level by 1 this morning. Winter ti Still Holding above 50 a barrel, 50. 82. Brent above 52 at 53. 53. The dollar is on the move high they are morning against the euro. 1. 1114. Stronger against the yen as well. We saw that gain in japanese stocks. 103. 87 is dollar yen and pound continues to fall this time breaking below 1. 23 at 1. 2288. A new range lower thanks to that flash crash last week in the british pound. Quickly lets check on gold for you after a steep decline last week. Worst week for gold since back in 2013. It rebounded a bit yesterday and this morning its pretty much flat, down 1. 40. Broke a six day losing streak. The pound well discuss more in detail later on. Todays top corporate story samsung after weeks of reports that the galaxy note 7 phone can spontaneously catch fire the korean smartphone maker is telling consumers to stop using all note 7 whether its original or a replacement device. The firm says its asking all Telecom Carriers and retailers that sell the note 7 to stop sales and exchanges of the device pending investigation. Major carriers like at t and verizon already made that move on their own. Fda has wideened its guidance on the use of Samsung Phones in flight. Flyers should not use any galaxy phones on sliegts. This follows the evacuation of a Southwest Airlines plane after a samsung caught fire before take off. Samsung shares off some 8 . Such a crazy number. I couldnt read it. 8 . Their troubles have helped apple shares, the stock jumped in yesterdays session hitting its highest levels since december. We made that comparison about the release of the iphone 7 and note coming out at the same time and how the launch has been polar opposites. I wonder how this laz into googles plans. Samsung for the high end smartphone buyer is the clear choice for people that like using googles operating system, the Android System and does this give a chance analysts say when google unveiled its new pixel phone that was a shot at samsung we can build this ourselves. Now were talking about a real brand destruction issue. I think you see the move in the shares finally. They have been Holding Together near the highs of the year especially after samsung last week put out that update it wont affect profits. Now were looking at reputational and Consumer Brand destruction and thats thought to have helped apple, a main competitor. Late yesterday we heard from verizon ceo on this subject of the Samsung Phone debacle. Heres what he said. This is by far the biggest concern ive seen in cell phones during my tenure. And i think they are a little surprised that the fix didnt fix things. So its a major black eye for them but at the end of the day they will recover. Severe zornverizon is set to yahoo . Yahoo s recent data breach said it wasnt a matter of if but when. Not that shocked. I think we all, you all live in the internet world. Its not a question of if youre going to get hacked its when youre going get hacked. Verizons chief giving some sense of the investigation saying the firm is about 50 done with a probe of the issues. For any investors worried that maybe this put deal on the back burner and would give verizon some pause doesnt sound like hes saying that. Odd comments in general towards hacking. Is that really ceos approach to the issue . I think its just facing the reality that this is happening for all Internet Companies constantly and it shouldnt come as a surprise to anyone. Perhaps. Its not atonement all ceos strike with this. I thought about jamie dimon speaking a month ago. Were investing heavily. These things are fair but we wont be hacked. His rhetoric was different. I think that comment is worrying suggesting its definitely going to happen at some point. I would think they are taking measures of the Technology Company out acquiring Companies Like yahoo and aol and other media c conglomerates. The firm has struggled to define its core purpose and made more of a push into news and sports. T dorsey called on the company to be the first place to check to see whats hopping. The share fell again yesterday. Said light day on the agenda today. Just one report of note and that would be the National Federation of independent business releasing its monthly Small Business optimism index at 6 00 a. M. Eastern time. In washington the u. S. Supreme court steps into the long running legal fight between apple and samsung, speaking of those two rivals. Justices will hear samsungs appeal of what they claim excessive damages award by a jury for cop jig patent on the iphone. Earning season unofficially kicks off today. Alcoa reporting Third Quarter results before the opening bell which is a big switch for alcoa. Alcoas last set of results before the company splits in two. Landon has all the details were watching for. The street be expects alcoa to report earnings of 35 cents a share on revenue of 5. 3 billion. Beyond those numbers here are the three things you want to watch. First the split, alcoa plans to split into two publicly traded companies on november 1st. One called arconic. The second which will deem coulda name will focus on traditional aluminum operation. You want to listen for any Additional Information about that spin off. Second aluminum prices, the u. S. Midwest premium for the metal has declined materially. Watch to see whether this will impact the companys primary metal segment. Management guide higher profits in q3. Global markets still facing headwinds specifically the supply glut in china. This comes as a senior aluminum official says last month the country would certainly build more factories to keep pace with its own demand and take a look at the stock. Alcoa shares are up near hi 4 in the past three months. Back to you. I think whats notable here is that honeywell warned last week and thats course the big c conglomerate. They were hoping to do aerospace and automotive parts. The question we want to hear from today is how strong is that cycle right now and how strong is the demand. The answers will come. San francisco based hedge fund is suing theranos of using fraudulent methods to attract millions of dollars in investment. It said theranos repeatedly lied about having developed proprietary technology. Theranos spokesperson said the lawsuit is without merit and the company will fight it vigorously. Last week theranos announced it would close labs and Wellness Centers and cutmore than 40 of its workforce. New reports on troubles at wells fargo. The wall street journal reports currents and former Branch Bankers say managers at wells fargo pressured the staff to sign customers up for potentially costly overdraft protection. Members of congress expressed concern about potential overdraft problems at the bank during last months two wells fargo hearings in washington. Reports from vice news suggesting Wells Fargo Bankers manipulate customer accounts as early as 2005 and employees warned executives about the issues in 2006. Vice just debuted on hbo and the news service says exclusive documents shows a Wells Fargo Bank manager tried to warn the head of a regional banging unit of an improperly banking account five years before the bank said the board first learned of its abuses. Context on this one is initially broke. Said it started in 2010 in the last hearings they pushed it back 2009 and 08 and then 2007. This story saying 2006. Either way its just more little bits of news coming out on this story that keeps the pressure. Thurts reputation. Big issue as we get into banks earnings theres a lot of points im looking for tirngs. All of the calls will start off hitting the ceos with how concerned are you about this regulatory burden. This context in july the banks finally got through. The question will this be a big hit on the sector. It is a legitimate question. Did you see the new interesting experiment. Feels different. Im sure it does. Have to keep an eye on it. Still to come former treasury secretary Larry Summers say the decline in the pound is like a fever. Well explain what he means coming up. Before we theyd break were wishing peter thiel happy birthday. He finances the lawsuit including hulk hogan that brought down gawker this summer. Happy birthday to him. Di pilotls have conquered highways, mountains, and racetracks. And now much of that same advanced technology is found in the audi a4. With one notable difference. The highly advanced audi a4, with available traffic jam assist. Exchange. Now to todays trade of the day our team looking back at all times in the last decade when oil surged by 10 in three months as weve seen. During those periods best performing s p stocks include pioneer natural and contra resources. On the flip side heavy Oil Consumers like United Continental and Delta Airline were among the biggest loser. Nor go to cnbc. Com. Uk could lose up to 66 billion pounds a year under a hard brexit. The times in london citing lead papers gdp could drop as much as 9. 5 if britain leaves the european union. The survey of british businesses from the chamber of commerce shows investment confidence in the uk has hit four year lows. The pound continues to plunge trading near recent loss. Everyone is trying to figure out exactly how dire of a forecast that paints for the british economy. Heres what former treasury secretary Larry Summers sees whats going on there right now. I think this decline in the pound is like a fever. Its a sign of some Serious Problems that are associated with the Brexit Strategy but given the Brexit Strategy and the new reality the pound will do a useful thing by stimulating british exports and encouraging some substitution from foreign producers to british producers in terms of imports. Larry sum tlemers there pain a pretty good picture of whats going on there, which is the helpful side of the weaker pound for exports. And youve seen that with the ftse 100. Their goods become more competitive on a global stage. On the other hand could spark inflation and paint a messy picture on the politics and economy of brexit in the longer run. Inflation is the thing we need to watch but could precipitate further. We had a big fall. If no further news flow in the next month were near bottom of the new range. The reason why we had a big fall is because of the current deficit. The next big fear would be if inflation picks up that will hurt the economy rather than be the shock absorber. The other point i may just add i wonder if were slightly over playing by linking to stories ftse 100 super. Shows how well exporters can do. Ftse is rallying because of foreign earnings of companies not necessarily the economy is doing better because were exporting manufacturing goods or whatever it is because we havent got much manufacturing in the uk more like Big Companies have big earnings elsewhere in the world so in terms of their reporting profits its looking better. Thats why the ftse 100 more than the simple exporting argument which is worth noting in terms of what it paints for the economy as a whole. Were just four weeks away from election day and the Republican Party is fighting over support for its own president ial candidates. The latest from the campaign trail coming up. All the networks are great now. Were talking within a 1 difference in reliability of each other. And, sprint saves you 50 on most Current National carrier rates. Save money on your phone bill, invest it in your Small Business. Wouldnt you love more customers . I would definitely love some new customers. Sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. Switch your business to sprint and save 50 on most current verizon, at t and tmobile rates. Dont let a 1 difference cost you twice as much. Whoooo for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay. Com. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Good morning. Lets get you up to speed. Some pressure on u. S. Equity futures. Dow futures down 24, s p down four, nasdaq down five. This after stocks finished higher yesterday off the highs of the session but still higher. Half of that gain was related to energy and the rising price of Oil Sponsorship lets check on oil right now giving a little bit back. Wti yesterday closing at the high jeftd level joins july 2015. Backing off that level but above 51 a barrel this morning and cut its losses in half. Down a percent about half an hour ago now down half a percent. Brent down. 6, 52. 81, gasoline prices under pressure as well. Also keep in mind youre seeing a stronger dollar this morning. Futures of course are down a little bit. Lets move on the politic, four weeks from today americans will theyd the polls to elect the next president. Tracie potts joins us with the latest from the campaign trail. Reporter today some states are actually having their deadline to register. Florida got a reprieve before the storm. Florida is where Hillary Clinton and donald trump will be today and were watching the storm thats happening inside the Republican Party. Special prosecutor here we come. Reporter donald trump defiant as ever promising more to come. If they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things will continue to talk about bill and Hillary Clinton doing inappropriate things. Reporter its caused a big rift in the Republican Party. The party sticking by trump but Top Republicans on capitol hill are not. House Speaker Paul Ryan said he dont defend trump, Wont Campaign for him but wont pull his endorsement either. Paul ryan is trying to make the best of a very difficult situation. Reporter so is Hillary Clinton. Hes an equal opportunity insulter if there ever was one. This election is our chance to show who we are. We are better than that. Reporter new poll numbers shows clinton pulled 11 points ahead nationally since the videotape was released exposing trumps vulgar language about touching women without their consents. He calls it locker room banter. Men are not that way, real men are not that way, donald trump is wrong about that. Donald trump is wrong about that. Letsing and make it official. Donald trump won that debate. Reporter trumps running mate trying to right the ship as the latest poll shows him losing grounds especially with women. So with Hillary Clinton up in the polls now shes still on the look out for what those leaked emails from wikileaks might reveal about her campaign or some of her paid speeches. Thank you for rounding up the latest drama. We learned 66 and a half Million People tuned in sunday to watch that second president ial debate. Thats down about 20 from the 84 million who watched the first showdown. Sundays town hall style event still attracted about one million more viewers than the second debate last time between president obama and republican challenger mitt romney four years ago. So still some pretty high interest i would say in the american public. Emails published by wikileaks shows a long time adviser to Hillary Clinton urged her to call for restoring the glass ste gal a glass stegall agent. She was told to consider endorse agnew version of it. If she didnt clinton risks ali earnating senator Elizabeth Warren. The Clinton Campaign wont deny or confirm this latest release. Cleveland indians sweeping the Boston Red Sox in their American League division series. Indians manager Terry Francona led his team over his former club. Cleveland now moves on to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the al championship series. In the national League Division series San Francisco giants facing chicago cubs last night trying to stave off elimination. It went to 13 innings. Joe panek hit a double off the wall. Late one there. Coupling this mornings top stories and complete round up of the Global Markets. Plus do you love lobster rolls . Yes. If so. Be prepared to pay up. Well tell you why prices are soaring to the highest level. Very american snack. Very trending. And seasonal. Stay tune. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Good morning. Turn off your device, samsung halts sales of the galaxy note 7. Your money your vote. A clinton win is raised to 70 . Google gives its assistant a sense of humor. Its tuesday october 11th, 2016. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Good morning and welcome back to Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Im sara eisen. Im wilfred frost. Very good morning from me as well. Lets check in on Global Market action. Futures lower about 25 points for the dow. S p down by four. The nasdaq by three. About half a percent of gains yesterday for stp and the dow, little more than that for the nasdaq about 0. 47 . The energy that performed the best was energy as prices gained 3 . Its a mixed picture. Europe is as i said mixed. We got a little bit of gains for the ftse 100 in france and slight losses for the other main indices. Asia was a little more avertly mixed with big gains for japan but decent losses for hong kong down 1. 3 . As for the broader markets we start with oil fueling that rally yesterday. Wti closing at its highest level since july 2015. Backing off this morning, down about half a percent. Still above 51 a barrel. Brent at 52. 85 down a little more than half a percent. Ten year treasury note yields opened hire. Bond market was closed yesterday for the columbus day holiday and we continue this trend of yields backing up here 1. 77. Weve come a long way from the 1. 50s a week and a half ago. Well get the minutes from the last fed meeting tomorrow and on friday a big retail sales report. On that note were seeing stronger dollar as well. Better data. Higher fed hike prospects. Thats lifting the dollar against the euro. 1. 1111 this morning and stronger against the japanese yen by. 3 of a percent and against the weakest link the british pound, 1. 2298. As for gold quickly not a whole lot of movement after a dramatic selloff last week brings golds gains for the year 20 or so. As i mentioned barely moving. Well keep an eye on that after the pain for some of those miners. To todays top corporate story, samsung, after weeks of reports that the galaxy note 7 seven can spontaneously catch fire the korean smartphone maker is stealing consumers to stop using all note 7s whether its the original or the replacement device. The company has halted production and distribution of the phone and the firm says its asking all Telecom Carriers and retailers that sell the note 7 to stop sales and exchanges of the device immediately pending investigation. Major carriers like at t and verizon already made that move on their own. The federal Aviation Administration is widening its guidance on the use of Samsung Phones on flying. Flyers should not use any galaxy note 7 phones in flight. This follows the evacuation of the Southwest Airlines plane after the note 7 caught fire before takeoff. We saw a drop in the stock today. Thats samsung shares trading in korea down 8 in asian trade. They have an adr as well which well watch the u. S. Troubles that samsung have helped their competitor apple. Apple stock jumping in yesterdays session hitting its highest level since back in december and now investors are faced with the question of what kind of reputational damage does this do to samsung in the longer run for Consumer Products company that originally blamed it on a single battery supplier. Does seem to be more widespread than that. Absolutely right. To have the replacement also not do the job, it does hurt the brand significantly. Lets move on the politics. Citigroup upping the chances of Hillary Clintons chances of winning to 70 . Joining us from london, the chief political strategyist at citigroup. Tina, good morning. So 70 thats a big move. Give us your reasoning for it. Well, we were waiting to see what the polls looked like after the first debate and it did take several days for those numbers to start to feed through. Of course, since the debate clintons odds have lengthened in the polls even further with some overnight polls going up as much as 11point lead. I would stress our 70 while a big move from 60 is still lower than what the Prediction Markets and some of the National Polls are saying. We got some caveats around that. To what extent do you put this down to the video that came out late last week of donald trump and the way he talked about women . I think the video was sort of a Tipping Point for a lot of republicans who were on fence about donald trump to start with. They had maybe given him a pass for some of his other objectionable comments, but that tape was so explicit and certainly in the u. S. Context so surprising that those who were, you know, kind of debating about whether they could contemplate support him have abandoned ship and we saw over the weekend a number of highprofile republicans but youll recall that in the brexit run up the fact that a lot of serious credible people also came out for the remain camp didnt do anything to change that outcome. Yes we all remember that very well. Tina, how do the weekend events that you mentioned and the polls after the first debate, the fact that republicans are now prominent ones withdrawing their support of donald trump how does that change the outcome of the senate and house races that youre following . Well, of course, that matters hugely because u. S. President s are relatively weak and they need congress to work with them or not work with them as weve seen in the obama case. If these kinds of double digit leads continue to second lie date between now and election day for Hillary Clinton, there stooshts a small but rising chance she might get close to bringing democrats with her and taking the senate. Now theres a long, you know, road to climb, a lot of seats that would have to happen, but its possible. Like wise, you know, reversal for trump unlikely as it would be would mean that he might stand, republicans might stand to get both houses. Its looking a lot less likely that trump can pull that off. If the democrats take the senate and presidency is that negative for the markets . Does that push back against this idea its the status quo with a democratic president where she cant do snch historically americans have liked the idea of a divided congress because of the checks and balances idea. There has been some optimism amongst Market Participant as Trump Victory on the asum shoochb Republican Controlled Congress both houses would mean more chance to do things like reform the tax code, expansion circle policy in particular Market Participants have been looking forward to that. Under a divided congress very li likely little reform. We could see a democrat president and democrat congress. Its house. You have to have both houses to see much change. Divided congress would mean very little legislation. Just to wrap things up i want to bring you back to the president ial race and you brought up the similarities to brexit earlier. How much of a similarity is there in particular the way the turn out was such a wild card for the brexit vote, it meant all those polls, all those predictions from the experts were wrong because they didnt forecast this big chunk of voters that hadnt voted before . Thats where we have another big wild card in this race, right . So polls plus forecasts try to anticipate turn out based on what people will say. Also some other questions have you voted in the last two elections and do you think that vote cigarette a sisk duty and that sort of thing. They can only use this information from what people tell them. Now its possible that if theres widespread outcry and a fear of a Trump Presidency that more people may come out to the polls to vote against him and we are seeing negative voting, right . People not voting for hillary because they are so fond of her but because they want to oppose donald trump. But like wise if hillary rides high in the polls theres risk her more passive supporters may say i may not need to come along to the polls today. Tina, great stuff. Thanks very much for joining us this morning live from london. Some stocks to watch today. Shares of takata are falling more than 7 in japan after the wall street journal had reported that they are in trouble. Chrysler striking a tentative contract deal with workers in canada. A walk out would have disrupted production of minivans built at a plant in toronto including the new chrysler pacifica. Shares of alumina falling sharply. The biotech firm which specializes in gene sequencing says its Fourth Quarter revenue will be flat or up just slightly from the Third Quarter. That stock getting pounded 25 . Indy rock band releasing a politically charged song aimed at donald trump. The song is called Million Dollar loan and refers to trumps claim he built his real estate empire off a small loan from his father. Heres a sampleing. He makes it on their own without a Million Dollar loan the band you night with the collective group of artists called 30 days, 30 songs. Well put out a new song each day. Rem is part of this as well. Anything to raise attention for a vote, i guess. I dont think it would come as a surprise or ruin the Trump Supporters that hollywood and then Entertainment Industry we knew that group was going that way. 30 songs to come. Well see if any of them are catchy. Google is hoping to give its new digital assistant a sense of humor. They are hiring creative writers and comedians from pixar. Its planning to differentiate its products from rivals. The writes will be creating dialogue to make google home assistant friendlier and funnier. The device goes on sale on november 4th. This is a very hard task. I mean humor from a computer. A. I. Humor. Listen, if it works you c, ko them. Lobster prices are at 11 year high thanks to the lobster roll phenomenon. The demands by growing popularity of the burger and lobster chain which are frequented by hipsters. The wholesale price of a lobster now 6 a pound up from 3. 70 in 2009. The chain is so good because everything is 20. Lobster rolls. Are 20. From the northeast. But the chain burger and lobster is a bar begin. If you want lobster everything on the menu is 20. You get a lobster and burger. Its 40. A play on surf and turf which is american. The chain which is according to our story pushed up the price. Popular on both sides of the atlantic. There you go. Coming up todays must reads but first check out trading picture in europe right now. Mixed. Germany just below flat, france and the uk just above flat. They are all green. Perfect timing. Well be back in a couple of minutes. Steg steg. Now to this mornings must reads the stories catching our attention in the paper this morning. My pick in the wall street journal titled american polarization in miniature. It actually looks at one of the races one of the congressional races in new york. The columnist writes the outcome of this years president ial race whole reveal electorate differences but here in new yorks 19th Congressional District voters will able to demonstrate whether they want to fix the countrys fundamental problems or double down on the progressive policies of the past eight years. They look at where a democrat is running more like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders and also a more paul ryan conservative who talks a lot about the economy and getting rid of regulation. Its just an interesting look at sort of a small district in new york up in the Hudson Valley southeast problems they are facing and just sharply different ideologies in a Campaign Election where theres just, so much about the personal problems, the insults, the back and forth between clinton and trump and will voters tune that out and focus on their own problems locally. Whichever way you look at it not justin u. S. , politics all over the world is polarized. Even within their own parties. Traditional middle ground debate. My must read i went to the Financial Times harvard professor writing this piece titled it would be wrong to abandon the policy of negative rates. He writes the mixed results from experiments of negative Interest Rates in europe and japan have led many to conclude that the idea is ill begotten and should be abandoned. To do so would be a serious mistake. Very admirable effort to try to convince those of umany of us that think negative Interest Rates havent worked. I was almost convinced by it. But not quite. Even if they are not working wouldnt it be a terrible policy statement to reverse . Once youve gone so far down the rabbit hole . His conclusion is based on some other options like protectionism and negative structural reform. I dont think it aedes up. Its a very interesting read for a perspective as to why negative Interest Rates should be maintained in the last two, three months i would say consensus has swung around the suggest negative Interest Rates is not working. People should move on from this. We are approaching the top of the hour so that means the team is getting ready for box squawk box. Kayla tausche has a look. You guys have these impressive spread and food prompts. Im disappointed not watching you eat a 5 00 a. M. Lobster ro. There will always be another food holiday. Today on squawk well be talking markets. We have Lee Cooperman who will be here. Dont miss that. Hes here for the entire 7 00 a. M. Hour. And something you want to tune into, sebastian malloby who wrote a biography on alan greenspan. Well talk about the time he spent with chairman greenspan. That should be good. Im excited for all that. Were sorry to disappoint with no lobster rolls. I would have welcomed that. A little early. You guys did margaritas on cinco de mayo. Great stuff. We look forward to squawk box in 12 minutes time. Morgan stanley chief u. S. Economist joins us here in studio. Stay tune. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Sprint . Im hearing good things about the network. All the networks are great now. Were talking within a 1 difference in reliability of each other. And, sprint saves you 50 on most Current National carrier rates. Save money on your phone bill, invest it in your Small Business. Wouldnt you love more customers . I would definitely love some new customers. Sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. Switch your business to sprint and save 50 on most current verizon, at t and tmobile rates. Dont let a 1 difference cost you twice as much. Whoooo for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay. Com. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Joining us now to talk about the economy, politics and the markets sell len zentner chief u. S. Economist at morgan stanley. Good morning. Good to see you. Cover of usa today gop risk losing senate over trump. When the papers are writing you have to use them. I love feeling ive read them all online. Its a high hurdle for the gop to lose the house. Right. This one is about the senate. If it is about the senate and if the democrats can win a presidency and the senate does that change the forecast and the calculus for the economy and Financial Markets . Well, i think its a really important question because i think in this election the make up of Congress Matters more than who the next president is. But unless democrats get a supermajority in the senate its not going to help hillary push through a lot of her tax proposals. If she has a supermajority they have a better chance of fighting against a conservative house. In the end if we get a hillary presidency its probably going at beast divided Congress Without a supermajority in the senate. Its still going to be policy incrementalism where were battling for every single type of increase or stimulus for the economy. It seems both candidates want to deliver a big fiscal stimulus. So we are getting a bit too concerned who is going president because either way youll have a fiscal stimulus and the fed will dont doing what its doing. I want to discern the difference between increased Government Spending which we get under either cain. Whan think stimulus i think reagan tax cuts, jimmy carter, the arra that obama put in place which are huge massive large scale packages that are a lot of deficit funded spending and thats key. Everything has to be revenue neutral and paid for it limits the effects on the economy. Where we get increased Government Spending under either candidate is Infrastructure Spending which both has proposed. Hillarys plan which is a total of 500 billion over five years, 100 billion a year in an 18 trillion economy a tenth on gdp and that can be easily deficit fund police department. Were in store for increased Government Spending no matter what but a lot of policies, fiscal stimulus policies will depend does congress approve deficit funding spend for those or not. How do you forecast fed policy when not knowing who will win the election one one made an issue of criticizing the fed for being too political. Its interesting. For fed these are economists as well. So oftentimes the prescription is you build into your forecast current legislation. So if that legislation changes materially then your forecasts are going to be off and maybe your prescribed policy will be off. I think the fed is going to be, i hate to say it but data dependent that means they have to watch legislation, theyve watch how the economy react when is we find out who our next president is. If they are data dependent shouldnt they raise rates in november no. Why. Absolutely not. Our prescription is they do nothing. Because we have optically what looks like a good Third Quarter gdp number but theres a lot of boosts to that that arent real activity. Activity started to lose momentum in august. Going into the Fourth Quarter growth is going to be quite sluggish. We saw how much growth was cut by one hike in december. Were not being pressured by inflation. We got a bunch of unknowns coming around this new presidency, new path of fiscal policy after that. Our prescription is the fed does absolutely nothing. Can the dollar continue to move higher as it has in the last couple of weeks. Is that movement because of the dollar side or other currencies falls for their own reasons . Its the latter. So at the end of the day whether the fed moves in november or december or early next year they are still going maintain that tightening bias and that means that any bobbles in any other currency especially our Major Trading partners will make a big difference. A lot of the latest move where the repercussions of brexit as people were reminded is it is an issue and might take a long time to play out and can be very volatile, so i think as you rightly pointed out its much more moves, that are unique to other drivers rather than the u. S. Economy. Another weak spot in the economy has been manufacturing and the industrial part of the economy which has been blamed a little bit on the stronger dollar and global factors. We had that warning from honeywell, well get alcoa earns today. Where are we . Are we still in a manufacturing recession . I wouldnt call it a recession although weve had more than three straight quarters of declines in business investment. Its primarily coming in equipment investment. What started as just an Energy Reversal last year did broaden out to capture a greater number of industries. It looks like the effects of digesting a strong dollar that rose very rapidly and sluggish global demand. You know we recently cut forecast for global growth. Doesnt look like that will help u. S. Manufacturing. But well get a little bit of a boost as that energy drag reverses as oil improves and were already seeing that in southeast numbers but still weak overall investment. Thanks for joining us this morning. Great stuff. Ill be watching oil. Ill be watching alcoa. Earnings seasons kicks off. Thats it for Worldwide Exchange. Squawk box is next. Good morning p. M. Cru. Crude prices are treating. Samsung shut down. Smartphone maker halts the sales of galaxy note 7 and tells owners to turn off their phones now. Easy for to you say. Plus the race for the white house. A new poll gives Hillary Clinton a double digit lead. We got the latest from the campaign trail. Its tuesday, october 11th, 2016 and squawk box begins right now. Announcer live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc. Im sore along with joe kernen and kayla tausche. Samsung after weeks of reports that the galaxy note 7 phone can spontaneously catch fire the korean smartphone maker now officially telling consumers to stop using note 7 all together whether its original or replacements device. Company halting the production and distribution of the phone and firm is asking all Telecom Carriers and retailers to stop selling and replacing the device pending an investigation. Major carriers like at t and verizon already made that move on their own. Federal Aviation Administration has also wideened its guidance on the use of Samsung Phones in flight. Officials say flyers should not use any galaxy note 7 phones on flight even if they are replacement models. We talk about