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Transcripts For CNBC The Kudlow Report 20140205

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That is Continental Energy ceo. Im going to add to the kudlow report. Good evening, everyone. Im larry kudlow. Live here at 7 00 p. M. Eastern and 4 00 p. M. Pacific. Stocks bounced back today but only regained a small fraction of what they lost yesterday. Lets get all of the details from bob pisani. Good evening, robert. Hi, larry. It was steady as she goes today after several days of turmoil the dow moved in a narrow range and moved towards the highs of the day. Why the pause in the selling . The markets were very oversold and many traders are waiting for tomorrows ism Services Report and fridays jobs report to see how weak or strong the Economic Data really is. Not surprisingly the most beaten up stocks rallied the most. Etfs for turkey and indonesia and poland were all up. Natural gas spiked 8 on the cold weather so exploration and production stocks like pioneer and eog were all strong today. Michael kors had a fantastic report which helped retailers like fossil. Reaffirming the 2014 guidance, that helped out restaurant stocks. Larry, back to you. All right. Many thanks to bob pisani. Appreciate it. Now, lets take a quick look at where the japanese stock market is opening. The nikkei just opened for the day in tokyo and its up 1. 5 . All right. Good. So, then, is this a pause in a healthy correction . Lets ask abigail doolittle. From your work, a lot of Technical Work and other stuff, do you stiff a bottom or not . Absolutely not, larry. I think that were, at best, halfway through. From a pure technical standpoint were seeing negative looking charts. So halfway would be 5 . At least. You want a 10 correction . Yes. I think were going below 1700. The sellers are really in charge at this point. Also, i havent heard a lot of people talking about this but i think that something has changed this year, the sentiment shift. Just tell me from your gut what has changed. People are talking about it instead of buying the dip, theres no rip ripe now to sell. Buy the dip. Well, you have to be pretty brave i think to do that right now. Im not that brave but i just think here, let me pause this. Were going to come back with you later in the show. Growth expectations were very strong. Economic growth in the third and Fourth Quarter, profits in the Fourth Quarter s p earnings outperformed what people thought. The market was euphoric in the second part. Is that fair . U fof rick in the second part of 2014. Thats well said. Rip it apart if youd like, the weather, whatever, emerging markets or wa ever has given us a couple of lousy economic reports starting with jobs, which upset people, and people are now doubting the growth euphoria and therefore they are doubting the market evaluation and the market. I think this has very little to do with the weather. Theres lots of irregularities to jump into the report. I think what were seeing is a repricing of risk. The fed is taking off the training wheels and investors are having to reeeville wait to see if the economy and Financial Markets can ride around. Im so glad to get the fed out of this business. They dont foe what they are doing. They are distorted the longterm rates. I agree with you. Its absolutely a good thing but right now its painful for investors because were seeing this shift, actually, to where bad news will be bad news, good news will be good fuse. Pain makes you spiritually stronger. Thats true. Cornerstone. Youre exactly right. Okay. Abigail doolittle, keep focus on these markets. Now, heres the very big story today. The cbo, congressional Budget Office, released its numbers on obama obamacare, on the budget, on the u. S. Economy. John harwood is joining me. Good evening, john. Let me run through the cbo. The budget will be less than projected. Thats around 3 of gdp and will remain 3 of gdp through the end of obamas presidency, better than the 10 . The bad news is more important and the bad news is Economic Growth is projected by the cbo to be less over the next ten years, perhaps a growth rate of 2. 6 over the next ten years. Thats. 3 lower than it projected a year ago. Now, the confusing news is it has to do with obamacare. The estimates of the effects on the labor market were that there will be the equivalent of two million fewer workers as a result of obamacare. But if you unpack that, you can see that the reason they say is almost entirely because workers with benefits under obamacare will choose to work less. Now, in some ways thats a good thing. People have more choices. On the other hand, in macroeconomic terms, fewer workers means fewer growth. Highlighted in the cbo study and a concern for everybody, its why youre seeing more and more talk about growth right now. John, i basically agree with your linkage there. For a worker, middle income or lower middle income worker, you have a tradeoff between the subsidy or if you get a raise, youre a higher tax rate. Right. The incentive effect really kicks in. Youre right. Its an incentive effect and we dont often see it. The cbo kind of changed from their original estimates a few years ago. Yes. They project a three times larger effect than they did before and its from both factors its from, one, people who dont require Health Insurance from their employer and its also the fact that theres a higher marginal tax effect, it gives them less incentive to work. John harwood, great stuff. Appreciate the update sf. Now, folks, lets look at what these numbers really mean. We have health care experts, next up. And cnbc, were going to be your home next week for curling in the winter olympics. And i and the rest of the kudlow report team are hard at work looking to make our contribution to team usa. We were at todays curling practice. And i would say that we are medalbound. Check this out. Until then, dont forget, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. I even curled myself right up. The kudlow report is coming back. Curling is harder than it looks. [ male announcer ] this man has an Accomplished Research and Analytical Group at his disposal. But even more impressive is how he puts it to work for his clients. Morning. Morning. Thanks for meeting so early. Oh, its not a big deal at all. Come on in. [ male announcer ] its how edward jones makes sense of investing. Open to innovation. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. You want everything. Orks were open to it. An expert ford technician knows your cars Health Depends on a full, complete checkup. The works. Because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. Get our multipoint inspection with a a Synthetic Blend Oil change, tire rotation, Brake Inspection and more for 29. 95 or less. Get a complete vehicle checkup. Only at your ford dealer. A new report from the congressional Budget Office, full of bad news for obamacare and its supporters. Obamacare will result in the loss of a whopping 2 million jobs by 2017. Its a being showing numb shock number. Is the president going to Pay Attention to this key report . We welcome back jim jordan and Health Policy experts Caroline Pearson and dr. Scott gottlieb from the American Enterprise institute. Jim jordan, welcome back. Appreciate it. I dont know, for months and months and months people are saying that the burden of obamacare for one reason or another is going to cost jobs, is going to stop hiring, is going to cut back on hours of work. Now the cbo recognizes is. What happens from here . Well, the good news is we have an alternative and leader cantor has pledged that were going to bring it up but we already knew how bad obamacare was as far as higher premiums, higher deduct bibles, a website that doesnt work and is in secure. A stagnant economy going forward, more deficits and more debt. The biggest thing that concerns me is this disincentive to work. Thats exactly the wrong message we want to send to the American People and to our economy. The good news is, we have an alternative that were going to bring forward and pass it. Thats what excites me. Can you just give us a brief just a real brief rundown, jim jordan, of the alternative . Yes, its going to be family centered, consumer centered, not washington centered. Its going to treat families, give them the same tax benefits we currently give companies. Its going to have real tort reform, encourage Health Savings accounts and not discouraging them. Empowering the patient and the doctor and the family, not empowering washington, which, in my judgment, is exactly what we need and what the American People want us to do. Caroline, whats your take on all of this . I think what the Budget Office basically said today is incentives matter and that includes work and labor incentives as our own john harwood laid out very nicely. If it doesnt pay to work, people wont do it. If you lose your subsidy but get a higher tax rate, caroline, why would you do that . What are they going to do to get out of this box . Thats the real question. Well, lets be clear, larry, we never know what economist assumptions are going to be. What they are telling us is that people are going to be choosing not to work because they have an alternative. They dont have to keep working just in order to maintain that Health Insurance and thats a very powerful thing. If we see people having more freedom and flexibility and potentially start their own businesses and to be able to get Health Insurance for them and their families, thats a good thing. The other important point to make here, in the context of the republican plan, the incentive here that is driving people not to return to the labor force is the subsidies, the Medicaid Expansion and premium subsidies. They stay in tact in the republican plan put forth recently. I want to get that straight before i bring in scott. Our plan is patientcentered. I would make this point, too, larry. The democrats cant have it both ways. When this thing passed, the they used the cbo numbers to say this is going to save taxpayer money and now we find its going to cost 2. 5 million each year and 1. 8 trillion in new spending. Lets remember this, too. The one thing about the cbo still in question, what do the bailouts mean . The cbo may have gotten that one wrong as well. Ill get back to the bailouts in a second. First, the cbo is being looking at incentives. I dont think you have to be a supply sider to understand subsidies and taxes. They are looking at a very narrow group. People transitioning out of the labor force and back into the labor force and those folks are going to stay out of work longer since they will have to undergo the subsidy. People are going to be reluctant, for example, to increase their income if it means growing your income in incremental dollars means youre going to lose the benefits. Its well more than 50 . You know, this is like this is like the problem with antipoverty programs. Its the same thing. If you go off welfare or off food stamps or off whatever, all of a sudden you lose the benefit and if you make income, your marginal tax hike goes sky high. You have tax rates to go to work. Its the same thing, is it not in. Exactly. Subsidies caroline is right but its a little less pronounced there. Because the subsidies are tied more to age than income. But its still the same problem in that plan. Is anything going to change . In other words, you get this estimate from cbo its a shocking estimate, if you ask me, its three times the incentive effect they said maybe well lose 800,000 jobs and now they are saying in ten years well lose 2. 4 million. That may be a lowball number. Its a small slice. That happens. Why isnt anybody making any changes here. Its remarkable that the cbo couldnt arrive at this number at the time of the initial. I think its going to go up the income spectrum. Everybody has a disincentive to grow their income incrementally. Caroline, you know, with all due respect, i still think businesses are not going to hire because of this plan. I still think the plan is so darn expensive with the high income premiums that people are going to walk away from this plan. They dropped their estimates from 7 million to 6 million. Thats a big drop. And by the way, this is an important number. Employmentbased coverage is going to drop to the 6 or 7 million mark each year. They are going to lose a lot of people once we get these employerbased figures coming in. We havent seen that yet. I dont want to over look that. Lower population, lessen rollment, and people are going to drop out of their plans. These are the big failures of obamacare. I agree with scott on all of the incentives. Thats anything that you face with programs tied to subsidies for lowwage workers. The employer. Ins havent changed. The estimates have stayed the same. Theres a reason that employers ari are going to take a wait and see approach. Could people be moved into exchanges where they get subsidies . Thats possible. We dont see that happening in the near future with the rollout that weve seen so far. The enrollment is way down. Cbo says they are going to get to 6 million. Ive got to see this to believe it. Me, too. All right. Were in the early part of february. March 31st is the deadline. More or less at the beginning of january the 3 million number was put out. Jim jordan, they may wind up not getting anything close to the 6 million. The 6 million is less than the 7 million and now its got to deal with employerbased walkouts. So, again, i ask you, when will the Administration Come to the table and try to try Something Different . Im with you, larry. Ill believe it when i see it. I think its going to be significantly less. And lets be honest. I dont think they will see it until we pick up six seats in the United States senate and the United States senate is in the republican hands and theres additional pressure, additional push for the president to come to the table and say, this law is not working. It needs to be changed and repealed and we need to start over with something that empowers families. Scott gottlieb, one other thing caught my eye in the reporting of this. And that is the so called bailout, the risk corridor, is going to make money. I believe the number they used was 8 million. Do you buy that . I thought the Insurance Companies were going to incur so many extra costs as a result of changing the cancellation into the new plan that it was going to cost them money. Caroline has done a lot of reports about this, too. They implied that the risk corridor is no longer budget neutral, they will take taxpayer money. It depends on what you think the Obama Administration is going to do. What they did in regulation doesnt look like its legal. It seems to conflict with the statute. Caroline, people are talking about a bailout and they dont like the bailout. Cbo is saying its a bailin. Which is it going to be . Well have to see. Cbo is basing it on the Medicare Program where in fact risk corridors could be revenue generating. What do you make of the regulation . What do you think the administration is saying . When has that ever happened, though . In the history of the planet. In the history of the planet earth. All right. Thanks to all of you. Dr. Scott gottlieb, Caroline Pearson, thank you very much. Another winter storm. A live report on the latest blast of cold and snow and what its expected to do to travel and business. Probably the stock market, too, over much of the country. Next up on kudlow. Heres a word you should keep in mind unbiased. Some Brokerage Firms are but way too many arent. Why . Because selling their funds makes them more money. 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Seriously, you met her like three times. Who . Geico. We barely got through the last winter storm and now this one is hitting a huge portion of the country. The weather channels Reynolds Wolf is in indiana for us. Reporter the last couple hours have gone from seeing a few scattered snowflakes to having this pile up in the last few hours and see two, maybe three inches of snowfall. The winter warning is in effect until 1 00 tomorrow and then the snow will coming to a screeching halt. The cold air will remain locked in place for days to come. Lets focus a little bit on the northeast and what may be coming. Whats interesting, larry, earlier today there are two computer models that we follow. We follow the gsf and it was showing a potential massive storm that could bring 30 inches of noefl snowfall to parts of n england. The system would pull deeper into the atlantic. The last couple runs of the models, the gsf has scaled back a little bit and it doesnt look like its going to be as big of a deal when it gets to the weekend. I dont trust these models when were that far away. They are good 12, 24, 48 hours, sometimes 72 hours out but this is way too far out. We should be aware that its a potential, know its there and follow the additional forecast that will come out later this week and certainly by late thursday and friday we should have a much better idea of what to expect in new york, much of new england, and for much of the eastern seaboard. All right. Many thanks. Reynolds wolf, appreciate it. How about good news for american Economic Growth, thanks to our Incredible Energy boom. Our next guest is a big reason for ameri for Americas Energy surge and in fact he should be on the list for cnbcs top 25 most important businessmen of the last 25 years. That is Continental Resources ceo harold hamm. Hell be joining me up next on the kudlow report. So you can have a getaway from what you know. So you can be surprised by what you dont. Get two times the points on travel and dining at restaurants from chase sapphire preferred. So you can taste something that wakes up your soul. Chase sapphire preferred. So you can. A 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable, professional. Would you trust me as your Financial Advisor . I would. I would indeed. Well, lets be clear here. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way i have no Financial Experience at all. That really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro, you just dont know. Find a certified Financial Planner professional whos thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan. Org. Cfp work with the highest stan. Cnbc is narrowing down a list of 200 to find the top 25 influential Business Leaders of the past 25 years. Now, its no surprise the tech giant steve jobs or bill gates leads the list but another area that should not be ignored is the unbelievable renaissance of the American Energy industry. Advances in Drilling Technologies and oil and gas recoveries have been nothing short of a miracle and for that i want to nominate our next guest to the cnbc 25 list as hes a true pioneer in the use of horizontal drilling that fueled the oil boom. Joining me is couldnt nntinent resources ceo. Horizontal drilling has done what fracking has done for gas. Theres a difference between the two . Horizontal drilling, you know, goes into reservoirs that have less per mea bill tea and the same time they both happened about the very same time. All right. So lets go back. Your vision, your vision, the hydraulic drilling, north dakota, the dabocan, you have totally totally transformed the economy and you may wind up transforming our Foreign Policy as well. My question, harold hamm, is this. Did the u. S. Government do this or was it a surprise . Did the bureaucrats have this vision or was it your vision . Larry, for sure it has been transformative. This actually began in canada, a lot of the that preceded what went on here in the u. S. And certainly its been transformative. Actually, we didnt have we didnt see the government up in north dakota when this began. Thats where we are going. I want to be as clear as possible. Viewer viewers, i am a great fan of harold hamm. It came from independent producers in this country. Nobody expected this to happen and certainly the government was not involved at all and this occurring. So that wasnt where it came from and they are taking credit and we thought maybe they would. Took them about three years to wake up and take credit. President has got it in his state of the Union Message now. He loves that stuff. On the other happened, there would be maces even more, even better that president s of the administration would allow this kind of fracking in federal lands or in offshore. What are they waiting for . Well, certainly a lot of federal lands that basically is off you know, we dont have access to. So any way, its been an evolutionary thing that has come about on these simple lands. Basically, we, the industry, have done it without being on federal lands. Well, theres a lot there. I have no doubt. I dont know how much reserve is there but im sure there is a lot. Let me ask you this. You just got to the state department i think for the fifth time have okayed keystone pipeline. I mean, is it a layup to have the person say yes to the pipeline and make another big step in your Energy Revolution . Well, certainly. You know, that could happen, you know, and all they have to all youd have to do is approve it. Its been a disaster. Theyve taken all of this time, over six years in the application process has just been a disaster. Its like a judge that doesnt make a decision. Its a very bad situation. Heres another one for you. Why cant we export oil . As i understand it, some of our oil is light sweet and that cant be refined. Most of the oil we do refine is the dark, heavy kind. If you have excess oil, why shouldnt we be able to export it . A lot of congressmen are saying no. What are you saying . Petroleum is being exported. Theres to limitation on exporting refined products. Basically, were just talking about crude oil, that you cant export. So the big boys with refineries, they can export all of the Petroleum Products that they want to but the limitation is just on us small guys. Thats where we are feeding big oil. And they are supporting exports, for the most part. They realize that were more efficient out there with the refining process, producing process, transportation process. But senator wyden of oregon seems to be against this. Now, i think hes a reasonable guy but he and others say with jacked up prices the consumers would pay higher prices and businesses would pay higher prices and why dont we keep it right here at home. Whats your response to that . Well, prices actually through this renaissance have come down almost to in most parts of the court and so its been very beneficial. You know, taking these restrictions off, larry, it just opens the door for more efficient marketplace and certainly prices further to the consumer. Lower the trade deficit, promo promote Economic Growth. Last one, harold hcamm. 10 million royalty owners across the country. Not just you but across the country creating unbelievable wealth. I want to ask you, just off the top of your head, how many millionaires between the shareholders of your company, the shareholders in the Natural Gas Companies and the Fracking Companies and the whole oil story, how many millionaires do you think youve created . 10,000 . 20,000 . 50,000 . Its got to be a huge number. Theres several that have been created. Obviously the bright spot in the economy is what has happened with energy and were the envy of every country in the world today with the Energy Renaissance thats gone on in america. So if youve created millionaires, what do they they dont take that money and put it under the bed in their mattress. They use it. They recycle it. They channel it. I dont know what they might do. They might create another apple or microsoft or whatever. Isnt that the way that free market capitalism should work . Well, one thing about the oil and gas industry, everything they make goes back into the ground and certainly whatever they can borrow. So youre right, it creates a lot more businesses in the overall economy and certainly is a great bright spot. Were going to leave it there. Harold hamm, as always, its a great pleasure. Larry, thanks. Are the socalled emerging markets really the reason for the 2014 selloff . Probably the number one person of the world emerging markets is about to explain what is going on. And speaking of emerging, the kudlow report curling team is a contender. Cnbc is going to sochi starting next week. Were going to be your curling headquarters. So were preparing. There it is. Who is that guy . It almost hick the mark. Well be right back on kudlow. Turn around every now and then i get a little bit hungry and theres nothing really good around turn around every now and then i get a little bit tired of living off the taste of the air turn around, barry finally, i have a manly chocolatey snack and fiber so my wife wont give me any more flack i finally found the right snack open to innovation. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. But with less energy, moodiness, wand a low sex drive, i had to do something. I saw my doctor. A blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. We talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal in about two weeks in most men. Axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. Women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant, and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. Report these symptoms to your doctor. Tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. Serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer, worsening prostate symptoms, decreased sperm count, ankle, feet or body swelling, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing while sleeping and blood clots in the legs. Common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. Ask your doctor about axiron. In into. Welcome back to the kudlow report. Its been a rough month for emerging markets. Chinas company and their own homegrown lefty in the stakes. Im sticking with emerging markets right now, i say just stay away. But lets ask a top expert. Here is charles, former u. S. Treasury assistant secretary, former institute of finance ceo and kurt Partners Group chairman. Charles, as always, pleasure to have you on the set. Look, i understand there are issues out this that are big macro issues but im going to try this out. You hear this all the time. Brazil is becoming argentina. Argentina is becoming venezuela. Turkey is becoming completely unreliable, corrupt market. India is probably moving left now. In general, we dont see the free trade, free market emerging market story that we saw in the past past 10 or 15 years. Is that unfair . Larry, its good to be with you again. I do think that the emerging market that you mentioned is facing fundamental challenges. Brazil, waited too long to start raising Interest Rates and they face both a high inflation rate and current account deficit which is still troublesome. Turkey, similarly, high inflation, current account deficit which is not coming down and they also have a central bank which does not have adequate independence from the government and this is constraining the ability turkey was a hot investment point destination but now, if im pronouncing it right, he doesnt like what the central bank is doing and he wants easy money. Why should anybody invest in the turkish. There is still good investment strategies. I would agree with you as a fixed income plate, there are real doubts around it at this moment. I think were going through a tough space in emerging markets. Its obvious. This started last may and all although i would agree with you that many countries do not have reform like they need to, they have not liberalized the way they need to, last may when bernanke signaled, they began the sharper reversal of inflows to outflows in emerging markets. Were seeing a second phase of that. And this is going to continue for a while. Help comes to those who help themselves. Lets take to argentina. Its a basket case. It may default. You know more about this than i do. Thats why brazil brazil has theres a new president in brazil. A lot of people say that brazil is going insular and dont want to make the tough decisions that their central bankers made years ago. Brazil is not the open economy that it used to be. Argentina walked away and stiffed its creditors years ago and is finally paying the price. The chickens have come home to roost and they have to deal with hyper inflation and they are going to have to come to some understanding with the global creditors. Brazil has followed a much more responsible course but i would agree that over the last few years they have not implemented the reforms in the labor markets, they have not liberalized the economy and they have not opened up International Fall trade the way they should. India is a democracy. The United States has gotten closer to india. I think thats good strategically. Their free market Prime Minister is on his way out. The prospect of another gandhi winning the election doesnt do anything for me because they have a socialist history. India is for the making the moves that we thought it was going to make. Well, i think theres a lot of truth in that. We still have very strong corporations that operate all rnd around the world today but the prime minute officer has not been able to cut through the red tape like he thought he would. They have stabilized their vulnerability to the market more than others have. The question that you have posed is the key. What kind of government are we going to see ahead and will it bring in the infrastructure that can take place . Liberalize is what was going on with these countries. Not argentina. A lot of the others, youre right, seems to me the liberal lie zags stopped the free trade and they may blame the Federal Reserve for tapering down bond purchases but i dont think thats really their problem. Ive got to take a quick break. Well come back with stock market guys who want to hear what you have to say. Charles knows more about this stuff than anybody alive. We have to look at the other markets and where stocks are going to open tomorrow. We had a better day today but that could change. Well look at your money story next up on the kudlow report. When you order the works you want everything. An expert ford technician knows your cars Health Depends on a full, complete checkup. The works. Because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. Get our multipoint inspection with a a Synthetic Blend Oil change, tire rotation, Brake Inspection and more for 29. 95 or less. Get a complete vehicle checkup. Only at your ford dealer. So ally bank really has no hthats right, no hidden fees. S . Its just that im worried about, you know, hidden things. Ok, whys that . Well uhhh. Surprise um. Well, its true. At ally there are no hidden fees. Not one. Thats nice. No hidden fees, no worries. Alank. All right. Very volatile week on wall street and its only tuesday. The dow is adding 73 points. Nasdaq up 35. S p gained is 3 points. Weve brought back charles delara and abigail doolittle. Joining the discussion from somewhere out there is lee munsun and larry glazer. Hello to everybody. Larry, let me start with you. Do you think this correction is coming to a close . Abigail told me at the top of the show it could have another a . It could decline or double again. Where are you on this story . Well, i disagree with abigail in several respects but there could be more to go here. Its interesting because we came off of last year one of the most hated rallies and were seeing one of the most loved corrections. When sentiment is that bullish it gives me pause that we could see further downsize. Investors had the rug pulled out from under them. They were ramping up risk, ramping up equity exposure only to hit the wall with the emerging market crisis and Economic Data and whether, of course. So all of that creates the perfect recipe for correction, ultimately creating opportunities for all of us. We have to work through this and let the market work. Thats the key. Lynn, larry ran it down pretty good. There was some growth euphoria at the end of last year. Now, i want to ask you, lee, what were seeing now is it weatherrelated or was the growth euphoria just running out of steam and people are cutting and running because they went way too far and the stock market has to adjust lower because the growth is lower . Is that what is happening . I dont think so. You know, first of all, were seeing earnings. They are coming up a few Percentage Points higher. It being looks like were going to get something similar in s p earnings growth. We need to wait for another few months. Im not out there trying to rebalance all of my portfolios because emerging markets are down. I think any real list stick investor thinking long term. We need to see a trend. How do you know youve got seven months . What if this thing turns around on a dime . Thats why im not selling my stock right now. Thats why i think investors shouldnt be selling right now. Go ahead. You really see more dangers ahead. I want to get your position. I continue to think that the selloff will continue. I wouldnt be surprised if we go more towards true bear market territory. In terms of s10, that just doesnt make sense. Abigail, you have to sell bonds at 2. 5 . Theres no way. I think were going to see the tenyear go below 2 . I think that we are not out of the woods. Youre talking about weather. 2 long that sin credible. Abigail, indiscriminate buying of bonds. Exchangerelated trading that drove equities down to oversold in places like japan and that was the problem. Now they have to figure it out. I think this is a repricing of risk where investors are going towards safe haven as with bonds and gold and the training wheels are coming off of the whole feds plan to support the economy and financial market. Investors are reevaluating. Im going to buy a dinner in paris or something. Ill take you up on that. 2 , its outrageous. Charles, let me ask you this. Regarding the emerging markets, which has something to do with the stock market creek, do you see the systemic risks that we saw a couple of years ago when you were so great and reporting to us about greece and southern European Countries . Is there systemic and banking risks . No, there are not, larry. We see it contribute to volatility from time to time and i also think that the necessity of rising Interest Rates in a number of emerging markets is going to issue much more than many forecasters had anticipated but creating a systemic problem, i dont see it. Is that the type of risk that the stock market is pricing in . I think it is. Whether it is, thats hard for me to know. At the outside of this year, virtually every forecast, brazil, china, turkey, i think a month into the year its pretty keer th clear that the decreases are going to be more substantial. Its going to go back into the German Economy and i dont think it can taint systemic risks. The Financial Institutions are in a much longer position than they were seven years ago. No question. Especially europe. I think thats fair to say. This is an unfair question. Were talking about argentina which i regard as a ridiculous place. Their government is utterly ridiculous and so are their policies. Could argentina collapse, default, and become the greece of latin america and the rest of the world . No. Argentina, in my view, is already substantially discounted in terms of the Global Market sentiment. Argentina is own largely irresponsible territory. Its for the hooked into a set of Exchange Arrangements like greece was that posed a threat to an entire major region. The new york times, the wife of the house she doesnt even show up to the meeting. They cant even find her and the court has gone to h ecell in a d basket. Larry, what should we do . Take advantage of the indisdiscriminate selling. Dont buy what is already overbought. For example, japan is a valuation story. Now its had a correction. Etfs have done a lot of damage there. I dont think you can indiscriminately say emerging markets. Ar squ argentina is a basket case. You create opportunities when you sell everything together. Thats what happened. South korea is cheap. The other paces are doomed. What are you go going to do tomorrow . Whats your strategy, real fast. Im starting to go downward because most of our clients have bonds have that gone up. Remember, the top emerging markets account for 10 market cap. Any redblooded capitalism needs to buy those emerging markets. You know why . Because people fear them. You have to wait for the s p. Id be selling longer bonds right now and go buying stocks with it. You have to sell bonds. Abigail, im going to give you one more chance. Sell bonds, sell gold, buy stocks. Thats the kudlow mantra. I dont know about timing. I dont get paid for timing. Thats whats going to happen. Yes or no . No. Ill take the other side. Reduce stock, buy gold and buy bonds. Charles, many, many thanks for your wisdom. Be a abigail, larry, thank you. Well be back tomorrow evening for the kudlow report. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. 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