Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20161107

Today. Most news obviously going to be overshadowed by politics. As we said, stocks around the globe rallying after fbi director james comeys comments. The s p looks to break a ninesession losing streak. Jim, ive been looking for corporate news, micro stuff, thats just not going to pop today. No, look, mgm is going to have a good number, but i dont want to minimize it. I did a piece this morning, i look through the charts pretty much every weekend for the last 30 years. I didnt open because it really doesnt matter. Now, we did see the search in the futures and you could argue, now pretty crystal clear, the people who trade futures, whoever they are, clearly theyre not protrump. Or they may be protrump, but they think clinton wins. I found myself thinking, geez, i looked at earnings this week, there are some very important ones including retail. And they just dont matter. Matthew boss with an interesting piece today about how jc penney misses and thats on friday and how macys misses and im thinking thats like years from now. Right. When macys reports. Because we have something, and i look forward to watching your coverage on tuesday because whats going to happen is everything i follow with the exception of the deals that are now done, whether we talk about a netsuite or wind stream, it doesnt matter. This is an election we dont care about earnings. No, it wasnt just all the prospects of a Trump Presidency growing greater over that time period. Oil also had a play into that. It was down. Oil and demise of health care earnings. Demise of health care, the expectation of a fed rate hike in december which is getting ever closer. Jobs number on friday. And not great earnings. Not bad, but not great. I think you have to look at the mosaic earnings from what came out. I talked a lot about this with executives about when they do report. Because if you go back, you know, technology was pretty good. But no ones reported in a long time. The banks were very, very good. Okay. Youre talking about a cohort thats organic. Thats true. Health care was last week. And health care what was surprising, i think, was devices were bad, cost containers were bad, Drug Companies were bad. Its a very big part of the s p. This week were going to see retail. I dont think retails poised to rally. Retail not as big, but the arc of earnings season is just taking it just creates this image that when you get to this point that earnings were bad but there were pockets of earnings that were not used to being bad. I mean, i spoke to cloroxs ceo last week and clorox had a pretty good number. But clorox peaked july 7th. What happened july 7th . Thats when Interest Rates trough. So you had Consumer Products didnt matter what they said totally hostage as bottom market equivalents, and then you did have i have to tell you perhaps the worst season for health care that ive seen since early 90s. It was really rather amazing. Yeah. We had tepper on squawk. Obviously a lot of people heard his comments regarding how hard it is for Fund Managers to discount these polls, to discount the Prediction Markets, to discount the range of policy options under trump or clinton. I know. Its been tough to make money all yearlong. Right. Im doing a piece tomorrow because were doing our show live, obviously like yours, about who wins no matter what. Well have more granularity of groups so incredible. And i found two groups out of what i would say is 20 and i dont want to reveal yet because obviously i want people to watch where you could make money either way. Ive got a show tonight about what would happen in a Trump Presidency, again, just to be able to demonstrate the real weaknesses in the system of what would occur where the earnings would be most hurt. So people just understand. But i thought it was so funny david tepper has at his command every single resource and he kind of throws away at one moment goes well, i watch five thirtyeight. Typically when the eagles were winning, i look at the eagles. I have enough poise now to be able to after i threw my headphones at the tv and broke my headphones, my wife said thats it, youre done, were not going to have the box next year. I realize if i go to espn now i claim im going for five thirtyeight. And 538 is not even that accurate. Was it the blocked field goal . No, it was when you get an interception, almost every team when you get an interception at 40 or 50 you have to score. The headphones were not bose, it was sony headphones, not a big loss, but the chink in the tv, as the dog got hit by it. Collateral damage. The realizization i may have to be done as a fan. Youre not done as a country, jim, the eagles have been worse and well get through this chapter too. Oh, come on, you can be a jets fan, it can always be worse. I am so much closer to the l lombardi trophy right now than they ever will be. Well, we had one i see the host is houston, you think i wouldnt have one of those top hotel room sns now im going to try to be as far away as possible. Im also going to miss the last game of the season. My wife told me that. Speaking of the markets this morning, tom lee has a note that says markets tend to react more to Economic Trends than election trends. Okay. So he sees the year ending up regardless of wlo wins unless his point is unless trump wins by fewer than 25 evs and the thing gets contested. Thats when things get difficult. A contested election is going to put a pall over everything. We really only have a fed meeting between now and the end of the year and we all pretty much agree the feds going to raise so the only thing that happens is the fed doesnt raise get back to bottom market equivalent. We get through this week and i think tom lee is right. As long as theres no contested election, this is whats so hard. You had to buy aggressively friday precomey. I mean, the comey announcement comes out you know, comes im busy watching football at that moment so i was not able to grasp it. I think the comey announcement comes out and whatever happened you have a full day of percolation here, but yeah, its really clear sailing. After this wednesday. Provided theres no contest. Numbers data wise. Right. But i mean, the election is still going to dominate. Im not sure. Oh, i am. Well, all right, yes, but if we start looking at companies again, theres no earnings to speak of. Trump much more so because to teppers point you dont know what to expect. So everybodys going to be trying to figure things out. Obviously the presidency wont start until the 20th of january next year. If its a clinton win, i think you may be theres an expectation going to be more of the same for the most part. Maybe you have hope theres some legislating done. If she announces that one of the people who are the most left in congress are going into her cabinet. I dont why do you think thats the case . No, im saying it wont. Yeah. So im saying, look, the bank stocks you have a democratic congress. Lets say it takes like that. Versus a fed rate hike, fed rate hike trumps because all the numbers go up. Im just looking at the calendar and saying if thats the biggest event which is a fed rate hike, wow, you could be off to the races provided theres no contested election. A Trump Victory would cause a lot of disarray for a few days. And then we would begin to figure out what it really means both internationally. Internationally i think would be worse. Right. Although again you wouldnt really know until his presidency began. Right. So a lot of back and forth for a long period of time. And even then every day could be an adventure. Lets just play it out. Next monday were going to come in, youre going to turn to me and say, well, jim, what do you think about whats going to happen this week with microsoft . Am i going to say, i dont know, david, its a big unknown with the election . And on tuesday you come in se, hey, jim, what do you think about nvidia . You might say its a big unknown because of trade policy, or because the president elect just tweeted something that seems like its very potentially negative for trade or for microsoft. Who knows. Well, okay. Thats all its certainly possible. Im looking at the tape and whats rallying and ill say, okay, United Technologies up 1. 47 right now in premarket. United technologies needs otis, which is china, needs carrier. You will look at estimates and be up or down, but theres been such uncertainty that it would be great to have the uncertainty removed and just be able to deal with earnings. Yes. Even if the earnings are going to be haircut because of possible decline in world trade. Yes. But im saying well get through it. But right now no numbers can be put together. Its true. But we dont have very much longer to get at least an answer, we hope, one way or the other. Speaking of getting through it, the candidates themselves are making a final push for voters ahead of election day tomorrow. Our chief washington correspondent john harwood is back at hq with the latest. Good morning, john. Good morning, carl. I think everybodys glad the days are gone from this countdown clock, just less than 15 hours to go. And the candidates are running around today as we indicated earlier both donald trump and Hillary Clinton are going to be in North Carolina. Trumps also going to be in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton will be in philadelphia with president obama. And we have the new nbc the wall street journal poll, final preelection poll, take a look at the numbers. Hillary clinton has an advantage of 44 to 40 , gary johnson at 6 , jill stein at 2 . If you look at the components of their coalition, its been very consistent throughout the election year. First of all, Donald Trumps assets, he leads among men by eight points. He leads among age 65plus by eight, among white voters by 16. Even stronger leads when you look at noncollege white voters, he leads by 32 points. And rural residents 28. But those advantages are outweighed by Hillary Clintons advantages. Hillary clinton has a larger lead with women than donald trump has among men. Shes got a larger lead with 18 to 34yearolds and donald trump has among 65plus. Among nonwhites she leads by 56 percentage points. Thats a huge vulnerability. She has an unprecedented lead for a democrat among White College graduates leading by seven points, democratic president ial candidate in the history of modern polling has never carried that group. And finally, the urban vote is critical for her, she leads by 26 points. Weve also got a couple battleground polls out today by quinnipiac in florida, onepoint lead for Hillary Clinton, North Carolina twopoint lead. A lot of the early votes been cast in those states, but Hillary Clinton has got a promising path to get over the 270 electoral votes she needs. Donald trumps is uphill. Still got a shot, within striking distance but very difficult for him, guys. Really quick, john, how much of a potential liability is michigan for clinton . I dont think too much. Hillary clinton has a lead there. Its not a huge lead. I think that race will be close. A trump advisor told me over the weekend i think michigan breaks our hearts because were going to come close but not be able to get there. Well see what happens. The Clinton Campaign is going in late. They say the reason for that is that its not an early voting state, it is a gameday state. So theyre going in right when people are getting poised to make their voting decision and go to the ballot box. Certainly that reflects on the schedule today, john. Well talk to you soon, our john harwood. Make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night beginning right here at 7 00 p. M. On cnbc. On this monday morning take a look at the futures trying to avoid the last tenday skid, july of 1975. It looks like the s p will do that. More squawk on the street from post nine in a minute. These goofy glasses. Yeah. Well, we gotta hand it to fedex. Theyve helped make our ecommerce so easy, and now were getting all kinds of new customers. I know. Can you believe were getting orders from canada, ireland. This ones going to new zealand. New zealand . Psst. Ah, false alarm. Hey you guys are gonna scare away the deer idiots. Providing Global Access for Small Business. Fedex. Futures pointing to a rally this morning. Markets reacting to some new polls showing clinton leading, and of course the fbi saying they are not going to change their conclusion on her emails. Billionaire investor david tepper was on squawk this morning lighting up the wires with his comments on trump. Take a listen. I got to tell you, during the financial crisis, during sandy, not one time not one time, and i know this firsthand, this is fact, not conjecture, not one dime to one major food bank, not one major pantry in new jersey. During sandy, the sandy benefit, big 9 11 benefit, not one dime. Not one dime you cant tell me this is a charitable generous person. When you live in these places and you are living with your people here and youre supposedly a multibillionaire and not one tidime, not one dim for people in the greatest hour of need. Now, tepper said originally he was open to trump. Said he was waiting for a turn, which didnt happen. Hes going to vote clinton, but a republican down ticket. This emphasis though on charity and the way you present yourself as being charitable is something he has a problem with. I mean, thats something that is releasable. You can find out how much people give to charity and the donation log. Right. But we havent seen any. No, i know. Im saying this would be an example. Just prove david tepper wrong. Davids wrong. I know david personally. I know there are many of us involved in doing things after sandy, some things were money and some things werent. So that was a very harsh david obviously very, very heartfelt, but then Trumps Campaign manager just begged to disagree. This is a factual dispute, but we cant we dont know the facts. He said we do know the facts. Why dont we know the facts . Because, david, okay. David didnt present any evidence that there werent other things that he did. True. Hes referring to his own membership on the robin hood board. Right. His own involvement in food pantries. Were getting into the weeds though on why he left for florida and his own commitment to paying taxes. I know. You know, ive known davids one of the most charitable guys in the world. And i do find that the Charitable Community is very tied in. They tend to know who gives. But that doesnt mean there arent im trying to be neutral here. Well, if we had trumps tax returns we might have a better idea. Yeah, a lot easier to determine. I dont think thats likely well get them before the election. Some say there may be never again a politician who feels obligated to disclose their taxes. Well see. This is a different election for certain. Well get the opening bell after a break. Of course well get jims mad dash as well. Take another look at the premarket with a solid opening on tap. More squawk on the street from the nyse is straight ahead. For the holidays. Before his mom earned 1 cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2 back at Grocery Stores and wholesale clubs. Yeah even before they earned 3 back on gas. Dannys parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. Thats the joy of rewarding connections. Learn more at bankofamerica. Com getcashback. Thats why a cutting edgeworld. University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Vern from voya . Yep, vern from voya. Why are you orange . Thats a little weird. Really . Thats the weird part in this scenario . Look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Save a little here and there, and over time, your money could multiply. See . Ah, ok. So, why are you orange . Funny. See how voya can help you get organized at voya. Com. Take a look at futures as we get ready for the opening bell about eight minutes from now. You can see we are set up for a much higher open after nine straight down sessions for the s p. It does appear at least in the early going were going to have a chance of breaking that streak. Lets get to our mad dash now for this monday morning with jim. David, i think something m a because its not necessarily big enough to hit the faber report, but interesting. Windstream, another one of these Companies Like centurylink, had a lot of land line, its merging with earthlink, 1. 1 billion deal, initially accretive to cash flow. Right. Why is this important . If you go back over the centurylink deal, i know it was poorly received, but they boost their cash flow with merging with lvlt. These are high yielding companies. And the idea is they can preserve the dividend by doing a merger. Now, frontier, which is a 3 stock come back and do something . But the three independents that weve been stuck with is frontier, windstream and centurylink. I think its interesting centurylink and windstream felt the time was now to boost their cash flow, not unlike when time warner got a bid from att and their cash flow gets boosted so you feel more confident about the dividend. I come back and say all these are dividend related. All these windstream, centurylink, att, they are all about having the best income streams. Yeah, centurylink really suffered last week. Geez. Wow. I mean, the yield above 9 at one point. I didnt see fridays performance on ctl. It did not do well after the announcement of the deal i dont want to stick my neck out and say centurylink is Better Company than lvlt, but dividend is in much better position. And its not being reflected in any of these stocks. Just be aware these companies are doing in order to keep their dividend. Its important. All right. Well, you saw at the beginning of the segment that the s p looks to be up as much as 30 points. Well see how we fare when the market opens now. More squawk on the street right after this. Ah, beth. So the elevator is stuck again. With directv and at t you can stream your favorite shows without using your data. That makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator with a guy with overactive sweat glands. Sorry, rode my bike today. Cool. Hey its your tv, take it with you. Watch all your live directv channels, on at t, datafree. Youre watching cnbc squawk on the street live from the Financial Capital of the world. The opening bell in just about three minutes on this monday morning. Election day tomorrow, of course. Markets reacting to the news from james comey over the weekend that the fbis conclusion regarding Hillary Clinton has not changed. Obviously were kicking around politics pretty much the entire morning, although tesla with a few headlines here this morning, jim. You know, we talked to elon musk on friday. Blogging today that theyre going to start charging new customers for using the charging network, something they had been giving to drivers for free. I know we were talking about some tweets that discuss where the debt lies. Yeah. Elon musk also, carl, i dont know if you saw putting out some tweets on november 4th that seemed to confuse people about the plan for solarcitys debt saying tesla will definitely absorb solarcitys debt, although extremely unlikely he would pay personally if need be. But, you know, theres been back and forth in terms of concern about what debt is going to be assumed at what level. And they better get their communications straight at tesla in terms of their approach to solarcity and what exactlys happening. Because that differed a bit from the filings. But, at the same time im watching a deal closing netsuite oracle where theres a huge chunk of netsuite thats owned by larry ellison. And im wondering, david, will it even matter . Solarcity, isnt that a done deal regardless . Well, they got to get a vote of unaffiliateds there and talk a bit more about this when the market opens. Unbelievable of course. On friday never got to it though i have to admit i would not have been able to share great insight. The question of netsuite was brown advisors, we knew t. Rowe was voting against, they wanted 133, may have been the price itself that motivated all other shareholders say wait a second were never going to see that take 109. The stock was 90 on netsuite. But on solarcity you had the vote of the unaffiliated. Its a couple of weeks away i think still. I do think it is kind of interesting. Yeah, the 17th. I think the fascination with musk has reached a new peak when youre watching nfl and you see the mars movie and its musk advertising the mars movie. I mean, the guy is getting to be cultural icon status. Also interesting he got this deal in sort of this netherworld, saying maybe theres a different kind of deal put together with gannett, obviously tesla and solarcity working hard to get that done. Recommending the merger on friday. Let see what some of the others say, in the meantime look at the big board, Super Bowl Host Committee with the Vince Lombardi trophy celebrating 100 days to go until super bowl 51. Speaki i it is key. It is. You want to have the same message. So when your ceo and shareholder tweets something thats a bit different than what you file publicly, that can create a communications morass for you. I do want to point out classic up openings like this have not been terrific places to get involved. Now, this obviously is more election oriented. But to come in on top of what are pure futures buying has not worked. You can look at some of the European Companies and maybe take your cue. I see a lot of the european banks are very strong. But theres some news over there makes it so they can raise some capital. But i want people to just be careful that this rally is entirely based on futures. And then a lot of times real buyers dont chase. Lets use the case of facebook. They reported a quarter knock the stock down 117, 118, its now back up four points, but how much of that is futures buying versus how much of it is the actual belief that facebook, twitter wasnt so bad . Use that as your example. And watch facebook to see if it comes in. Because there were real sellers friday. There were some real sellers. Yeah. And by the way, remember wed lost 3 over that nineday streak. And wed need to get back to 2153 to erase all of that. Were nowhere near that. On the s p oscillator i follow we have had no there have been five times where weve been this oversold in the last year. All of them produced nice rallies. So against the idea theres i know we have an election so you can say all bets are off, but this oversold has produced rallies. That staggering figure you gave about ten straight downs 1975, now youre really starting to talk about a period in the country is not just its actually the republic. Is your mind on the retail and media were going to get this week . Viacom see, i was just doing work on disney and on espn numbers. I was trying to figure out what happens with macys, which is closing a lot of stores. Going back over starbucks to see if i missed something about the idea that maybe the consumer is not as weak as i think. Jc penney on friday obviously a situation where a lot of people felt there was a turn. Disney disneys really yeah, disney is interesting in part this dispute theyre having with neilsen, i think belief they lost 621,000 espn subscribers, taking the number from memory, but something very close to that in a month. Disneys saying come on. Are you kidding me . I thought that was interesting they were just pointblank, this is one objectively someone has an answer, dont they . Well, of course it exacerbates the fears already out there about the continued subscription losses at espn. Right. And it will be interesting to see. You know, meanwhile the latest marvel movie looks to be another big one for them. I know. You know, its funny this weekend i was out with some money managers. Not on purpose. They just happened to be there watching with my wife. Two suggested if disney went down, bob iger please close your ears, that why wouldnt google benefit. Im like disney, no, disney cant get a bid. But you have people after time warner like well, why couldnt well, its not inconceivable. I have to admit i look at market cap, i look at cash positions, i look at if people really think disney is had it because of espn and goes down dramatically, you tell me google wouldnt want to buy the darn thing . Holy cow. I dont know. Its not why you would buy disney. That would be highly unexpected. No, but im saying the y that had disney at a certain point, yes, espn is very, very important. Im not denying that. But at a certain point do we not just understand that their movies are 800 million a pop . That shanghai disneys doing well. I know that espn is the mothers milk. But what happens if those losses level off . Maybe theres now youre starting 16 Million People, you know, do you think that 25 Million People will decide skinny bundle or not take espn. That would be a lot of people. That would be youre talking about i think thats a fair expectation, not right away, but eventually. You think the 10 of the people would cut the cord . I think eventually well have a lot more than that who cut the cord overall from what we started with lets call it a little over 100 million households. That includes football peaking, obviously you would think footballs peaked because the ratings are quite poor. Couple interesting notes. On thursday b of a cut fitbit from buy to sell on that horrible news. Today they do the same on gopro, buy to sell, price target goes from 17 to 10. Thats two embarrassing downgrades. The gopro quarter and fitbit quarter when you read the Conference Calls, you basically say, okay, these remind me of commodore computer. I had a commodore back in 87. Yeah. There was another firby, you had certain trends. But the commodore was where it had some quarter and that was the end. Now, gopro will exist. And fitbit will exist, but it turns out that they were commodity companies. And, you know, im still struck by how fitbit told me on october 6th to focus on amazon as a way to figure out how they were doing. That turned out to be a complete false tell. It just didnt hold up under any close scrutiny at all. So you think is that what they were doing . Were they sitting there saying, hey, wow, were number one on amazon, lets keep making the product . Clearly there had to be other data that they were looking at, right . Right . No . Youve asked this question, and its a good question. Well, what else i dont know the answer. Did they look at kids who are in parks and do survey . I dont know. But i mean, really, if they just felt that they were amazon, well, that was a bad call. We mentioned net dlsuite bef the bell. Remember we reported on some time back when the first time they had a deadline for tendering the shares it appeared and rightly so they werent going to be able to meet the minimum threshold of getting more than 50 of the unaffiliated shares. Extended the deadline to friday night, t. Rowe of course the largest single holder had come out and said were not tendering. But give oracle credit, they went to 109, they stuck at 109. They said best and final at 109 and they won the day. Unexpectedly as you see because of the market had anticipated this netsuite stock would have been a lot higher than where it was on friday. Im told the coceo there really orchestrated what ended up being a Successful Campaign for them. It appears they turned brown advisors, they were a key holder. People wondered about. They werent sharing any information. But, jim, this was unexpected. They end up be 53. 2 of the total unaffiliated shares. Wow. They will own the stock as of tonight own the company i should say as of tonight when they close the tender. Those of us who know him really one of the best there is. When you put these two together you now have a proportion of cloud on their Conference Call that is going to be rather extraordinary how much theyll have leaped in terms of percentage of business being cloud. Netsuite, small, medium size business, but that still matters. It was a home run for them. Really fabulous deal for oracle. Yeah. That was probably a decent risk reward on friday. Theres an article this weekend about the disagreement between microsoft and salesforce. Right. We had originally reported on salesforce and microsoft talks, god, sometimes i forget, but apparently they had resumed again, according to this report, i think it was in new york times, but then didnt get anywhere again. Its gotten very ugly in that group. And i did i had felt there was great comity between marc benioff and nadella and in the end it was kind of like marc said due to twitter, my good friend jack dorsey. I felt like that suddenly sacha had been raised to that good friend category. Maybe marc watches a little bit too much of us and makes those recognizes that theres facetiousness involved in being a good friend. Jim, really quick. A lot up, but Kansas City Southern up 5 . Okay. So close actually, a little more than 50 of their business is with mexico. About 5 3 after last year. The line runs next to my house in mexico, just filled with cars. Raw materials coming down, cars going up. And nafta is the reason why ksu does so well. So this is a nafta referendum and ksu will live to play again. Now, theyre the single biggest loser of any American Company if naftas repealed. They are the trunk line to get your cars from everywhere the germans and japanese need the cars. Interesting to watch. Dow up 273 going to be the biggest gain since september 12th. Thats across the board if it holds. Lets get to bob pisani. Bob. Good morning, carl. Happy monday everybody. We havent had an opening like this in awhile. 12to1 advance to declining stocks. Less than 200 stocks down at the nyse. That hasnt happened in a while. Really the whole world is up 1 to 1. 5 . Nikkei is up about 1. 6 . Germany gak up rather nicely. Thats up about 1. 5 . France is also up 1. 7 . The yen dropped, dollar rose and all sorts of things moved around and thats one of the reasons were getting such a strong rally. Gold is down. Remember gold was over 1,300. Its come down a little bit. It was 2 earlier. Now down about 1. 4 , but thats about the worst showing in about a month. Earlier on. Gold a laggard now all down 3 , 4 here. In terms of sectors, well, everything is up. But its interesting to see the Market Leaders and market laggards moving here. So banks and tech as far as sectors go are up rather strongly. Retail and pharma are also on the upside. And remember theyve been badly beaten up recently. So the big point about the market is that we are very bifurcated right now. So there are a small group in up trends and holding up very well, they include bank stocks, transportation stocks, some of the Aerospace Stocks and semiconductors although theyre off their highs. Theres your sort of Market Leadership. The markets held up very well because banks and tech are the two biggest sectors. But behind that theres all sorts of stuff that is having a very, very rough time in the market. So heres the laggards that were taking a look at here. Pharmas had a horrible six weeks or so. Weve seen also groups like retail, election blaming the election for a lot of things. New dog ate my homework. The election is making people not go to the malls, which is strange to me, but thats the excuse. Consumer staples Market Leader earlier in the year had a terrible time of it. And telecom and reits, my point is were up but the markets been very bifurcated. It could go either way. Heres the big issue, do you fade this rally right now . Theres the s p 500. So weve been down 3 as carl mentioned earlier from the highs to the lows in the last nine days. Weve recovered today exactly half of that. Do you fade this kind of rally . What do you do right now here . So a lot of people are arguing that you probably should. Remember brexit . Brexit was a twoday empbt. This is the opposite. Brexit down two days and then market recovered. Is this whats going to happen here with this rally assuming we get this status quo election were talking about. Thats where the big debate lies right now. Remember, any kind of stimulus that might happen from clinton victory or Congress Moving with her is a long, long ways down the road. And weve got the Federal Reserve coming certainly in between that and any president inaugural way over in january. Thats something to think about. Right now dow right holding onto its gains. Thanks so much, bob pisani. Lets get to the bond pits and check in with Rick Santelli at the cme in chicago. Hey, rick. Good morning, carl. You know, when we talk about the amount of days in a row, nine, how far back that goes and then we talk about the actual distance markets covered as we do so well on cnbc, bob just said it, 3 over nine sessions, half of it in one session. It isnt about the days. Its about the distance traveled and whats more this isnt your fathers or your grandfathers market anymore. Mostly computer driven, and of course theres a lot of issues. And all these issues seem to effect markets in very similar fashion. So trying to draw conclusions about markets, well, maybe its best to give it most time to simmer. Nikkei up big, dax up big, our markets are up big. I think that its how markets move together thats the most important dynamic to focus on. If we look at the spread between tens minus twos, acknowledging we had a lot of central banking activity last week in the form of meetings, we could see that. Its range has really been narrow. I think thats quite porpt. And if i look at the yield curve, first look at a oneweek of twos, were not going anywhere quickly even though weve moved back up in yield predicated in large part on equities recouping nine days and basically half of that in one session. Lets look at a oneweek of tens, but we can look at bunds, we can even include other charts like gilts. Everybody is moving to the same tune. That really goes a long way to dispel how were trying to handicap various activities, whether its elections, whether its referendums, it gets much more complicated than that. And finally, Foreign Exchange wise, you know, the fed has been tinkering with the Balance Sheet in ways many insiders think is going to definitely result in a tightening in december. I cant tell. Many of these thought the same thing was true on several other occasions that didnt result in a tightening. But the long and the short of it is much of that may have affected the dollar. Now the dollar seems to be coming back. I still think that this is the best barometer to Pay Attention to. And it held where it needed to as you see on this july chart of the dollar index. 97. 5 held, now its back to testing 98. 63 which is where we closed in 2015. Carl, back to you. All right. All good points. Thanks so much, rick. Rick santelli. Were going to stay on top of this mornings rally. As we said earlier stocks up the most since september 12 9, although the dow now up 277 is the biggest gain since june 29. Back after a break. Whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley pretty good breadth at the open here. Just a handful of stocks in the s p posting biggest days since september 12 9. Meanwhile, North Carolinas 15 electoral votes up for grabs in this race. Scott cohn is live in the States Capital with more. Scott. Good morning, carl. This is really political ground zero today with donald trump and Hillary Clinton both planning rallies today and tonight right here in raleigh. And this might help explain why. Now, these numbers are not final yet, but these are early voting numbers from the state board of elections. It looks like 3. 1 million North Carolina filed ballots early. About 45 of the electorate, thats way up from 2012, but in a state rife with racial tensions, africanamerican turnout and overall democratic turnout are down, while republicans are unchanged. The democratic ballots do outnumber republicans, but theres a big effort now on both sides to get out the vote on election day. And its not just the presidency at stake here. We have important down ballot races, a key u. S. Senate race and then the governors race. Tightest in the country between incumbent republican pat mccrory and democrat roy cooper, and its all about that controversial bathroom law known as hb2 signed into law this year. You want to know how nasty that race has gotten, take a look at this ad from the prohb2 forces. Roy coopers bathroom plan. What does it mean to you . Any man at any time could enter a womans bathroom simply by claiming to be a woman that day. Well, the antihb2 forces meanwhile say that the sentiment against the bill is energizing voters across the board in the democratic races in this state. If you go on college campuses, if youre in our large urban areas raleigh, charlotte, greensboro, hb2 is an incredible driver to the polls, so i think thats going to pan out to victory for roy cooper and Hillary Clinton here on election day. Another important unknown here, suburban women. Well see how they turnout, but it is clear that with all of the attention at the top of the ticket is garnering on this day today, it is clearly at this point up for grabs, carl. Thank you very much, scott cohn. Thats going to mean the early part of the night tomorrow night is going to be key watching what happens with the florida, with the North Carolina, pennsylvania. Im going to look forward to your special because i think you guy haves hit it for me for my world i got to watch these things because a lot of these things determine what i regard as retail stocks. If i hear that theres kind of if we could get through the melees where you had reagan win and a definitive move in the stock market quite impressive. Now, many things happened, Interest Rates peaked and inflation peaked, but ill watch to figure out maybe some insight into the market that im going to need very badly starting wednesday morning. Starting wednesday morning, yep. Remember to catch our coverage tomorrow night beginning at 7 00 p. M. Eastern right here on cnbc. When we come back, well get stop trading with jim, dow remains elevated today up 2 61. Dont go away. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Time for cramer and stop trading. This evercore analyst is very powerful, recommended cummins. I point out particularly weak quarter, so when you see that we were talking about what stocks could do well after the election and what industrials, when you see a stock that is up nicely from a big disappointment, what does that mean . It means if things get even marginally better in the United States, that stocks going to take off. So i like that pattern. Thats a pattern that says once the elections through you might want to be looking at that. Not just microsoft, not just nvidia but maybe an industrial. So tonight political playb k playboo playbooks . Yes. Still a lot of people dont understand what nafta means. Brad jacobs by the way is a guy who promised certain things i thought were sky high, delivered on everything and more. This is a company thats now really Worldwide Logistics company. Very, very Impressive Team hes put together. I like the stock very much. Cant wait. Cant wait until tomorrow night. Cant wait until wednesday when its over. Youre not alone in that. Cant wait until veterans day when i have a very good show coming up that im very excited about with cadets coming down from west point. How nice will it be to at least put this chapter behind us and look at celebrate Something Like veterans, right . Yeah. Just be terrific. Jim, we will see you tonight. Thank you, guys. 6 00 p. M. Eastern time. When we come back, a lot more on the rally this morning as we countdown to election day. Dows up 264. Dont go away. Guyhey nicole, happening here . This is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. Kids a natural. But thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. Shhh. Alerts on anything at all . Not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. Wow, i guess we dont need the kid anymore. Custom alerts on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Whether its connecting one of or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. Campuses. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential good monday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with sara eisen and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. Got a market rally underway. S ps back to 2117, not quite the 2153 we were at before this nineday losing streak began. But it is the dows best gain since about midsummer, lets say. Oil meantime up a buck about 1 back to 44. 54. Our road map for the hour begins with the market surging after the fbi clears clinton in the email investigation again. S p 500 on track to break its first nineday losing streak in 36 years. Just one day until the election, Clinton Holding a slight lead in some of the latest polls. Were going to go to the swing states that could determine the next president straight ahead. Plus, a warning from the deputy mayor of new york. How she describes billionaire president ial candidate donald trump after decades of working with him. Shell be joining us live. But first, lets start with this market rally. The dow is up 264 points. The s p 500 is up more than a percent and a half. And the nasdaq is soaring the most of the three major averages. It is up 1. 7 . It is broad base. Weve got all s p sectors higher led by financials, which are getting a boost from those higher yields that we are seeing. Also surging with 24 hours to go, the mexican peso. Mexicos peso opens early, this has been the most sensitive market to the u. S. Election. Its considered a big loser of a Trump Presidency due to his positions on immigration, Foreign Policy and trade. At one point in september the peso traded at a record low. Currencies do open for trade sunday afternoon, so this was the first reaction to those fbi headlines. And what youre seeing there is that weaker u. S. Dollar, strong peso by 2 . That was the first tell that investors were really cheering the fbis latest revelation that theres no criminal evidence in the latest batch of emails, guys. Even the canadian dollar, another key trading partner, has been stronger on this news. Youll see the biggest reaction on the peso in the election whoever wins. If its secretary clinton, it could be a more temporary and smaller move higher for the peso. If trump wins, you could see a bigger more pronounced decline for the peso down to 23. And that is a more than 20 drop or devaluation from here, carl. Speaking of all of that, one day left in this race for the white house. Our John Harwoods back at hq with the latest. Good morning, john. Carl, we talked last hour about the poll, last nbc the wall street journal poll shows a fourpoint advantage for Hillary Clinton. But the Electoral College is ultimately whats going to determine the outcome. Lets look at the nbc news battleground state map. And what it shows is that Hillary Clinton has an edge in more than enough states to get above 270 electoral votes. Youve got a bunch of tossups including arizona, georgia, florida, North Carolina, ohio. The problem for donald trump is he needs to win almost all of those disputed states. Hes got to break through in the blue states the democrats have consistently carried and build on mitt romneys 206 electoral votes. Big challenges across that map from donald trump. Hes racing around the country today trying to hit as many of them as he can. Hes going to be in North Carolina. Thats in particular a state that president obama carried in 2008, lost in 2012. And Hillary Clinton will also be there for a midnight rally in raleigh, guys. John, thank you very much for that. Earlier this morning on squawk, billionaire investor david tepper made his own choice known telling cnbc he is voting for clinton, but a republican down ballot. Take a listen. Definitely clintons my choice. Im not going to pull punches. But i am going to be down ticket republican. And i think that combination is best for the country right now. Least dangerous for the country right now. Meanwhile, analysis by the mcclel lan Market Report says a Trump Victory is likely. Were joined by the editor of mcclellan correctly predicted the outcome of the last four cycles, also a market timer for the past 12 months. He joins us this morning. Tom, good to have you back. Hi, carl. Good to be with you. Youve been tracking relationships between the indices and political polls for basically this entire cycle. So what is it telling you at this moment . Well, you have to understand that the stock market is a great discounter of public mood. Public mood also shows up in the poll numbers. Its just that it shows up in the stock market first. It takes a long time to call people and gather up data in a poll and tabulate it and analyze it and publish it. So we find out several days later what people were thinking a few days ago in the poll numbers. Last week we saw a pretty protracted decline and really a lot of fear showing up in things like the vix and the put call ratios. Theres a lot of fear investors are feeling and voters are feeling. It just hasnt shown up yet in the poll numbers. But the market has given us the answer ahead of time. Based on my analysis and bias in favor of using the stock market as an ipindicator of what peopl are really feeling ahead of time, i feel the popular vote is going to tip toward trump probably two to four points. It hasnt shown up yet in the polling averages, real clear politics is still as of this mornings preliminary number 1. 9 points in favor of mrs. Clinton. But i think thats going to shift today if we get any poll numbers today and it will shift by the time we count the popular vote tomorrow. But as was noted earlier, thats really the electoral vote that counts. Right. Lets parse this a little bit. Degree of certainty, where are you . Oh, you can never be certain. And especially in 2016 because i think in the real clear politics average they have 24 different polling firms. When i started doing this back in 2000, we had two and didnt have to look anywhere and didnt have to do that much analyzing about who was a good or bad polling firm. But real clear politics tends to lump everybody all in together and treat them all equally. Although interestingly they have havent been featuring the rasmussen poll the last couple weeks and underweight the Los Angeles Times poll both showing favorable numbers for mr. Trump this past two weeks. Tom, what exactly are you seeing in the markets that suggests the popular vote goes to donald trump . Just clarify that, will you . Well, the behavior of the stock market in the week before the election is a real great indicator of how the mood is shifting. Moods shift the whole summer and whole fall as we lead up to the election, so its not like a poll that was taken in august was wrong about how the election was going to turn out. Its just people change their minds. And the last week before the election is very critical for determining or demonstrating how people are going to be changing their minds when they vote on tuesday. That decline we saw and all the stock market averages and the nine down days in a row, that was a powerful statement that people are really in a bad mood. And when they get in a bad mood, they dont like the incumbent or the incumbent party. That hasnt shown up yet in the poll numbers because of the lag it takes to get the poll numbers counted, tabulated and reported. How do you explain brexit then . When we saw a tremendous rally in the week before and the day before in the pound in global stocks on the idea that britain would vote to remain, and then it went the opposite way . Well, the people who were controlling the finances and the stock market in london, those people are all living in london where the grand consensus of everybody in london was for remain. But it was people outside of london that did most of the voting. So that surprised the markets and the Financial Center in london. And you got the quick sharp selloff because everybody in london thought, oh, no, were leaving and its a who l thing. And so they sold off stock prices. But then two days later the stock market rebounded more than twice the amount of the selloff. I think youre going to see a similar response this time. The stock market and the new york centric Financial Experts and also other markets around the world, they hold this opinion that mrs. Clinton would be better, and so if trump wins there could be an initial disappointment. But the market exists to prove the majority wrong. Im looking for a very bullish stock market regardless of who wins going starting right after the election and going into next year. Tom, Prediction Markets, weve been watching some of them including iowa where were still looking for trades today. But goldman has a note saying that those Prediction Markets are assigning a higher probability of a clinton win than the polling suggests. How much relevance should those get, those markets . I saw that note this morning. And thats an even better question now in 2016 in light of how the Prediction Markets failed in the brexit vote. We found out afterwards that there were a lot of londoners betting in the Prediction Markets for the brexit vote because they thought it was a sure thing because everybody in their circle of friends said so. So i think were probably seeing some of that same effect this time. People know more about the Prediction Markets now than they used to in years passed when the Prediction Markets worked really well. And so we may see a little bit contamination in those markets in terms of the quality of the message that we get from them. Im not ready to pass judgment on it yet, but it is a fascinating change in the way that those things work in terms of giving us a good message. Finally, two changing dynamics that even tepper brought up this morning in his interview. One is changing demographics. Its hard to model since those are so dynamic, even from 12 regarding working white class working class whites and latinos. But also this dynamic of early voting. I mean, 40 s going to be in the can before tomorrow, how do you account for that . Very good point. And the fact that there has been early voting skews more in favor of mr. Trump on the basis of the stock market being in decline last week. People may see a lightning of that depressing mood based on the stock markets rally today, which im enjoying because i got leveraged long on friday at the close for my managed account clients, but early feeling the full brunt of the selloff and the bad mood of last week, so it is changing. The other part of changing dynamics with regard to poll numbers theres so many more easy ways to reach people by even though weve been cutting the cord on our land lines, people are just getting bombarded by polls. And people have learned that they can lie to the pollsters in terms of hoping to skew the results in a way that they might come out favorably for their voting preference. So im not sure that in the future were going to have as accurate of polling as weve enjoyed in the past even though the Information Age makes it much easier to tabulate all that, doesnt mean that the quality of the responses are any better. Thats great. Tom, thanks for that. Were going to see what happens tomorrow. Tom mcclellan joining us from out west. Thanks again. We are getting a look, a final look here at wall streets expectations for the election and the implications for the market. Wonder if they agree with Tom Mcclellan, our Steve Liesman joins us with a special fed survey election special. Its interesting to follow that guest because our respondents, 36 economists, Fund Managers and economists couldnt disagree more. We asked wlahat happened to the stock market, we made an attempt to get beyond the Immediate Impact and see if there would be a Lasting Impact if clinton wins versus trump wins. You can see two big opinions here. The first is at 48 probably say that the stock market will be lower that trump wins. And 64 say it will be the same if clinton wins. Thats an idea that a clinton victory is indeed baked into the market. So we asked by how much would you change your 2017 forecast if trump wins lower by ten percentage points, if clinton wins lower by nine percentage points. This is among those who say it will be lower. And then if trump wins those who say will be higher say higher by 8 . So those are some ideas to work with with this 10 number also agreeing with a study out there by justin and david from dartmouth about what would happen to the market if it declines. What about the fed . Take a look here. If trump wins heres if clinton wins they wouldnt change their 2017 forecast. And 41 say they wouldnt change it if trump wins either. But by how much . Again, lets see the next numbers if they come up, yeah, 43 basis point decline if among those who say they would lower their forecast, 25 for clinton, 42 increase among those who say it would be higher. Those are a little confusing, but basically not as much agreement on what would happen to the fed. Just real quickly about the expectation how that disagrees with what mcclellan said, 78 say clinton is most likely to win, 8 say trump. That is little change before the whole email reporting scandal from the fbi came out. It was 82 before that. Who would be best for the economy . Trump maintains a slight edge, but you can see here 69 say a clinton victory would be best for the stock market, which i guess disagrees a little bit with your last guest, sarah. Yeah, absolutely, steve. Any sense on the outlook for stocks beyond just the nearterm reactions say in the event of a Trump Presidency . Is it a prolonged dip . Because i was looking at some of the mexican peso forecasts and the view there is that this could last a long time if trump does win the presidency and does sort of follow through with some of his policies. I think thats right, sara. Thats why we tried to get beyond the Immediate Impact because you can imagine the market adjusting quickly, maybe it has a selloff if donald trump were to win. I mean, you could expect it to come back. So thats why we asked about 2017. But theres a census lower, this group of people, these economists and Fund Managers are spooked by the trade aspect of this in the worst sort of way. Thats really what gets them. They think trade is good for the economy. They think that erecting trade barriers or changing existing trade agreements would be bad for the u. S. Economy overall. One other thing is that from what Tom Mcclellan said in your last segment there, it seemed to me that the market was going up and down with the chance of a Trump Victory, and thats why it sold off. So the idea that somehow there was some broader point about the state of the electorate seemed to be a bit of a stretch from what i could hear. Yeah, i mean, thats certainly one theory. On trade, and i did hear mohamed el aarerian talk about this on squawk box, how much authority does a president have over trade and over trade deals and opening up Something Like nafta which has been in place for decades . I dont know that nafta could be directly opened up, but certainly its something that a president could set a direction for, set a mood for. But, sara, id offer you this idea that the idea that the peso declined with the chance of a Trump Victory increasing, you realize that made mexico more competitive. Yeah, hes helping them. So its really an interesting dynamic whether or not nafta all it does is equalize the effect of a cheaper peso on the u. S. mexico in terms of trade. Good point. Yes, they get the ultimate trade advantage in the form of a weaker currency. Right. Steve, thank you. Our Steve Liesman. Thanks. When we return, it is the final day until the election. Well break down the policy issues and what its going to mean for your money. Grover norquist is our next guest. And a big trump warning from the deputy mayor of new york. Shes worked with the president ial nominee for decades in commercial real estate. And shell be joining us. Take a look at stocks this hour. The celebration continues with the dow up 258 points. S p 500 up 32. Thats more than 1. 5 . And the nasdaq up 89, up 1. 76 . Financials are the best performers. Well be right back. Mary buys a little lamb. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data could be under attack. With the help of at t, and security that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Ive never liked marijuana. But im voting yes on prop 64 to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over. It has important safeguards for families, like strict product labeling and childproof packaging of all marijuana products. And banning edibles that would appeal to a child. Raising a teenager, that regulated system makes a lot more sense than what we have now. Plus, 64 taxes marijuana to Fund Priorities like afterschool programs. Personally, marijuanas not for me. But my minds made up. Im voting yes on 64. After more than 16 months on the trail, Hillary Clinton and donald trump making their last sales pitches to voters today despite all the battleground polls it all comes down to just who shows up on election day. Tomorrow night we will likely know the answer. Joining us this morning the always outspoken grover norquist, the president of americans for tax reform. Grover, good to have you back. Good morning. Good to see you. What do you thinks going to happen . Oh, dear. Well, i think its very good news that bloombergs poll has the House Republicans up by six points, which is i mean up by three points, which is extremely helpful. And the senate looks good as well. The presidency could go either way, as you say on turnout, but a Republican House and senate stops a lot some of the damage that a hillary presidency could do. Has it been frustrating for you the degree to which tax policy or really any policy has been overshadowed by character trust . Yeah. Well, yes. And theres a lot at stake here. Trumps tax plan is taking the corporate rate from 35 to 15, the House Republicans are largely in agreement full expensing territoriality, very healthy. Hillarys is a trillionplus tax increase, no rate reduction, business or individual, as a matter of fact every kwen tile does better with trumps the poorest, richest, middle class all do better with trumps tax proposal. So taxes havent been discussed. But there are labor law issues that are front and center. Hillary clinton says she wants to crackdown on independent contracting, that the nlrb with obamas appointments is working to make uber illegal because he wants every uber driver to be an employee, which means uber doesnt work. And worse or bigger, is what both obama and hillary are planning to do or are on track to do is franchises. If youre invested in a franchise company, youre in big trouble if hillarys there because shell keep the nlrb the way it is. And they want to make every mcdonalds manager an employee, and every mcdonalds local employee an employee of corporate. Easier to sue, easier to tax, and you destroy the franchise structure in the u. S. Which is a unique american advantage. So watch stock prices of any company that structures as a franchise if hillary wins the presidency, even a Republican Senate cant save you. Yeah. Weve asked you all along all throughout the cycle whether or not donald trump signed the pledge. You essentially said it was coming. Did you ever get it . No, hes not signed the pledge. I was told that they had. He has not publicly signed the pledge. And when weve asked for it we dont have it. He is not made a commitment not to raise taxes. He has committed with significant tax cut first thing, which is good and healthy. But he has not yet made a commitment to the American People never to raise taxes. Hillarys made a commitment to raise taxes dramatically. I would feel more comfortable if trump would make that commitment in writing. But watch labor law. The differences on labor law are as dramatic. And you cant reform education in new york city or l. A. Or San Francisco until you take on the labor contracts that the teachers unions have. And trump says he wants to have parental choice. And hillary is told the unions shell support their opposition now to more charter schools, which is a real back peddling on what we thought was a bipartisan Movement Towards education reform. Grover, youre touting all of the lower taxes within Donald Trumps plan, but i always thought of you as a fiscal conservative. I am. So im kind of surprised many independent analysts have shown that trumps plan puts the u. S. Deeper in the red than Hillary Clintons plan. Neither of them are talking about cutting medicare or any Social Security programs that would actually cut americas debt. Well, actually, if you look at the republican plan that paul ryan has put forward that is five times passed the house of representatives to block grant not just aid to families im talking about trumps plan. If trump gets elected there will be a Republican House and senate, and you can save the kind of tax spending, the spending dollars that need to be saved to both reduce rates and to have economic growth. The democrats opposed block granting aid to families with independent children, turned out to be very successful. We can and should do the same thing with medicaid and food stamps and other needs tested welfare proposals. That saves a great deal of resources, not touching medicare or Social Security. Social security takes 60 votes. But most important you take that corporate rate from 35 down to 15 or 20 and the United States becomes competitive with the rest of the world in a way that we arent when the european averages 25 , were at 35, no ones up as high and as stupid as american tax policy. And we also have the worldwide tax system rather than a territorial system which would also advantage American Companies if we move as trump and the House Republicans, Senate Republicans wish to do. House and senate are as important as the presidency. Yeah. Obviously a trump election guarantees a house and senate republican. A lot of other races to cover besid besides potus tomorrow night, for sure. Grover, thanks. Watch governorship too. Okay. Of course grover will be watching we assume you will too, our special coverage tomorrow night beginning at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time right here on cnbc. Our election coverage continues. Weve got a warning from Rudy Giuliani deputy mayor of new york alicia glen tells us what its like actually working with president ial nominee donald trump. Plus well hear from the former republican governor of indiana Mitch Daniels. Much more ahead on squawk on the street with the dow surging here 260 points. Now that fedex has helped us simplify our ecommerce, we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. Were not passive aggressive. Hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here. No matter how lame they are. Well said, ann. Ive always admired how you just say whats in your head, without thinking. Very brave. Good point ted. Youre living proof that looks arent everything. Thank you. Welcome. So, fedex helped simplify our ecommerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. I just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. Whats that supposed to mean . Fedex. Helping Small Business simplify ecommerce. What is it like to work with donald trump in new york city . Well, our next guest has done it saying, quote, donald trump is probably worse than any other developer in his relentless pursuit of every single dime of taxpayer subsidies he can get his paws on. Alicia glen is the deputy mayor of new york city. She previously worked under mayor Rudy Giuliani. Of course a bigtime trump supporter. Welcome to you, deputy mayor. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Tell us a little bit about your experience, what sort of projects you worked on with donald trump real estate developer. Sure, when i was a very young assistant commissioner in the Rudy Giuliani administration, i oversaw a lot of tax programs the city has to encourage Affordable Housing and market rate housing. And i have to say it was extraordinary to the degree to which he would just keep hammering home his entitlement every single dime that was available. You know, normally in a give and take with developers, particularly people who are longstanding new york citizens, theres a conversation that happens between the Public Sector and developer about what is going to be delivered for the people of new york in return for the tax abatement. And quite frankly he wasnt interested in that conversation. He wanted every single dime, and he was absolutely relentless in his pursuit. We should say he didnt do anything illegal, right . Youre not accusing him of that. And in fact your previous boss even said the fact he was able to do this made him smart. Well, i mean, its one thing to say somebodys smart because of relentless and will go after every possible dime and not leave anything on the table. I would argue that life is long and developers in this town who are responsible developers and understand the Public Policy objectives have often wanted to work with us. And, you know, theres ways in which you interpret the regulations. He was absolutely not interested in having that dialogue. I dont think it makes you smart to get every dime you possibly can out of the taxpayers, or by the way not pay your taxes which he also seems to be quite proud of. Thats not the kind of leader we want for america. We want people to pay their taxes to enter into publ Public Private partnerships to advance goals. Its been interesting to me of course a lifelong new york resident, im sure you know many of the new York Real Estate developers, i think the sense of mr. Trump and the rest of the country is hes one of the main guys in new york. But he really isnt. I would say thats absolutely not true. I mean, he has become more of a brand than an actual developer. There are some extraordinarily talented longterm developers in this city who are building buildings and advancing the agenda around a great mix use, mixed income city and have been working with us. Ive worked with Rudy Giuliani, worked with de blasio, im telling you donald trump is not one of the Great Developers of new york city. Youre say thag because he didnt develop a lot of buildings or your afoefr mentioned qualms. I think both. I think a lot of the buildings donald trump was associated with he in fact wasnt the developer or had the equity interest he often talks about having in projects. So i think hes been a brilliant marketer and been able to license his name quite effectively, but when you think about the Great Developers of new york city whove been operating here for new york city, i wouldnt put him in that category. This hardball tactic that he took with the Public Sector, what did it cost him . Because it sounds listening to his supporters it sounds affirmative, right . He goes hard, he deals hard. I mean, what it cost him is he really lost the trust of a lot of people in the Public Sector here to do really important things and create the cities that we all want to see. He really since that time has not been engaged in any meaningful Residential Development in new york city. He really is not one of the people who we talk to every day about what the city is going to look like in the 21st century. As we know his business really disbursed across the country. Hes not part of the real estate civic elite of this town. What would you say to those who say its on you . Its on those at city hall that cozied up to him and befriended him and let him get away with some of these tax breaks . I dont think we cozied up to him. Again, there are programs on the books. Some are open to interpretation and Developers Want to take advantage of those opportunities. But as i say theres always a give and take in negotiation around how big a building is going to be, how many units are going to be in the building for low income people. And he simply did not want to engage in that conversation. I dont think thats about cozying up. Thats about people in the Public Sector trying to get the best deal for taxpayers. These are taxpayer dollars. Were also talking about real estate developers. And if you know anything about them, theyre not exactly you know, theyve got some pretty sharp knives. Theyre a tough bunch. I mean, some would say, well, if hes a tough negotiator, thats a good thing especially amongst a group that is known for being very, very difficult. I think thats true, but i think what i think of shortterm greedy and longterm smart. I think most people and i spent over a decade on wall street, would also argue to not take a little bit of a breath and realize every deal you dont have to fight to the death for because every day youre losing trust, with your public partners, private sector partners. We need to have more people in the tent coming up with constructivity solutions for the problems were facing, not pounding the desk and demanding like a child they get everything theyre technically entitled to. Before we go i want to give you an opportunity to talk about this new equal pay act new york city implemented, how it works and you think other cities are going to follow. I hope they are. This is about end the cycle of pay discrimination. In the city of new york weve passed a law and order meaning for everybody who works for the city of new york cannot ask about what the old salary was, you can only be asked about qualificationings for this job and skills for this job. All too often for women and people of color they often start at lower salaries. So to have that compounded year after year or movement after Movement Really results in what we see now, which is extraordinary gap between what women and people of color make. And white men make. So anything we can do as leaders and we are after all the center of the Global Economy to show that we will not tolerate pay discrimination, thats incredibly important. So were excited about it. We know other cities are looking at it. Did trump really pound the desk . Did he really go like this in front of you . I want to make sure im not saying its 100 true, maybe its my own nightmares coming back to me but i have a lot of pounding imagery in my head. Could have been the apprentice as well. Could have been. Alicia glen thank you for joining us. Dow holding to 268. Lets get cnbc update with sue herera at hq. Hi, carl. Good morning. Heres whats happening at this hour everyone. Plumes of smoke rising above a village outside of mosul as Kurdish Forces Exchange Heavy Fire with isis militants. The kurds launching mortar rounds and heavy artillery sunday advance of the offensive. United nations climate talks opening in morocco. Talks will continue through november 18th. Emergency workers assessing the damage in cushing, oklahoma, after a 5 point earthquake hit the city. The downtown area was blocked off and power out for about two hours. And janet reno, the first woman to serve as u. S. Attorney general has died from complications of parkinsons disease. Crime dropped steadily during her eight years in office, the first decline in decades. But she was criticized for approving an fbi raid on a texas religious cult and her role in the saga of cuban boy elio gonzalez. Janet reno was 78 years old. That is the news update this hour. Carl, back to you. Sue, thank you very much. Sue herera. Dow up 274, best day since june. Latter sigh of june. Meanwhile, well continue to talk about the election and its impact on important states like florida and the markets in a moment. Its been over 100 years since the first stock index was created, as a benchmark for average. Yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. But investing isnt about achieving average. Its about achieving goals. And invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of highconviction investing. Translation . Why invest in average . Did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk on the street. With its 29 electoral votes, certainly florida will be key for donald trump. And according to most experts he cannot win the presidency without winning florida. Our diana olick is there live. And she joins us with more on this story behind the state. Good morning, diana. Good morning. A quinnipiac poll just released a few hours ago shows the florida race in a dead heat, Hillary Clinton at 46 , donald trump at 45 . Well within the margin of error. Now, half of floridas registered voters have already voted. Early voting is now closed. Democrats turned out in greater numbers than republicans, but by a very thin margin. 40 democrats to 39 republicans. And this is just who voted. It is not how they voted. Over a million unaffiliated voters have already cast ballots as well. We do know there was a surge in hispanic voters who represent 17 of the florida electorate. Were here in port st. Lucie, florida, one of the hardest hit areas in the recession, just over 10 of residents here lost their homes to foreclosure and one in five are still under water on their mortgages today. The homes in this community are now selling some of them for half of what they did a decade ago. So you know these folks are voting with their pocketbooks. I know she has the experience. She has the experience. Shes been there, done it. The clintons seem to be interested in their own financial future, and mr. Trump seems to be interested in the countrys financial future. Most analysts agree donald trump cannot win without florida. The math just doesnt work. The last candidate to win the presidency without florida was bill clinton in 1992. Back to you guys. It will be an important one to watch. Diana, thank you. Joining us now to talk more about the electoral map, veteran democratic strategist and former pollster to both bill and Hillary Clinton, mark penn. Mark, welcome. Thank you. Just in the interest of disclosure, are you working at all with the Clinton Campaign now . I know you helped lead her 2008 president ial campaign. Nope. Im enjoying this campaign. Its a really rough campaign. But i think finally were getting to the end of it. So 538, which a lot of people are citing, certainly here on wall street shows 66 chance for her at this point. Do you agree with those odds . I think thats about accurate. I think today youd probably up it to 70. I think that, you know, comey coming out was quite helpful. I think were seeing the surge in latino voters, i think youre seeing a slight shift in her direction in the final days here. I think there was trump had some momentum, but that seems to have been fading. And i think also the campaign has been very good at trying to close any back door way that trump might have through the Electoral College. I think most of the polls are showing a couplepoint advantage for Hillary Clinton at this point. And so you really have to watch the Electoral College. Is there a way for him to come in through the rust belt . I think and thats why you see everybody out there in michigan and other places i think to effectively block that. You really think this latest bombshell from comey two days before the election is going to make an impact . I think what it does is it cuts the momentum that trump had. I think trump had some momentum going into the tail end of the week. I think now youre seeing voters saying, you know, if thats off the table, wlost going to be more responsible with the economy, whos going to be more responsible with our nuclear weapons, who can handle the complexities of foreign affairs. I think youre seeing voters kind of rethink that finally. And those that held back i think are breaking a little bit more for hillary. And that is why youre seeing her go up in most of the polls. Mark, id love to just dig into your polling expertise. I mean, looking at some of these estimates of race change in florida on the early vote, hispanic up 87 , whites up 27 , how much of this is being oversold . Well, look, i think that it is a pretty important factor. I think when you look at how this race is going to come out, i think africanamerican turnout probably down a little bit, but probably still near record highs. I think you have to remember if you go back to 1992 the latino vote was less than 2 . It is the largest growth vote in the country. And donald trump is a latino turnout machine. He has really awakened, i think, the latino voters. And i think on the other two other constituencies which is how are independent women breaking, he had them, he lost them. A lot of them after hollywood access, and then you have the down scale male factor. Can he bring out a lot of down scale men who havent voted before . Thats the biggest factor in his advantage. I think right now its being outweighed by the other factors. But if you look at those three or four things, those are the key constituencies that this election really came about. So do you think its decisive in florida, or more so colorado, nevada, out west . Yeah. I think this puts kind of florida just out of reach of trump if i really had to bet on it. I know the polls are quite close, but they really dont show trump ahead. I think it puts like nevada where i think the latino vote early vote drive has been very effective out of reach. I think that strategy is blocked by the very strategy that trump adopted. He really needed to do a pennsylvania, a michigan, a minnesota. He needed to have success in the rust belt outside of ohio. And he seemed to have woken up to that fact relatively late. Mark, people come back to the vote in the uk in brexit in terms of saying, well, the polls cant be necessarily believed, nor can the markets by the way where investors always thought to have a good sense of these things. Sent the markets upright before of course britain voted to leave. Is there any analogous situation here . I think thats where you have to look very carefully at are there kind of white male voters who typically are what i call the 94 million couch potato voters, among the people who sit out on elections even though theyre eligible. There are a lot of them. But i think you take a look at New Hampshire, and if youre sitting on Election Night New Hampshire were to go heavily for trump, wow, that would change the odds greatly. I think if it goes heavily for clinton, i would say youre going to have a much earlier night than you expected. And if its close, i think youre going to have to look to florida and how that comes out. I think thats really some of the key moving pieces that would tell you, hey, we have a brexit. Very quickly, mark, we dont have a lot of time. But did he just totally change the game for people like you the fact that hes being outspent by nearly double, has very little ground game and is still having so much traction in key states . No, look, i think the campaigns change with modern communication. When i started, the tv spot was new and the idea you could break the organization with a tv spot was revolutionary. Now i think youre going to see that mass political events amplified by the internet, you know, enable people to get their message out for less. And i think thats going to be a powerful factor. I dont think it breaks the model. I think it makes the model and political involvement in this country all that bigger. It is stunning to see the difference on the states there by more than double in many of them. Mark penn, thank you for joining us a day ahead of the election. Thank you. Make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night november 8th, beginning at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. Thats going to be right here on cnbc. When we come back, our election coverage continues. Former Indiana Republican governor Mitch Daniels will join us. And were watching to see if any of this fades here. Dow opened about at these levels. Were up 272. Were back in a minute. Just like that, a moment turns romantic. So why pause to take a pill . And when youre having fun why stop to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. 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Com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one thats right for you. Just search, compare, and apply at creditcards. Com. A one, a two, a three percent cash back welcome back to squawk on the street. Markets in rally mode as you can see there. Financials outperforming all s p 500 sectors, up by 2. 25 . The leaders today, youve got charles schwab, regions financial, keycorp all up, bank stocks helping to lift the entire sector higher with the spider s p banking etf, that ticker kbe, and the Regional Bank etf, ticker kre, both gaining over 2 as well in early trading. Those etfs on track for their best day since early august, david. Back over to you guys. All right, thank you very much. The s p up 1. 73 , dom. Now lets get over to Rick Santelli at the cme group in chicago. Hes got the santelli exchange. Good morning, rick. Good morning. David. I like to welcome my special guest the day before the election, exgovernor of indiana and current president of purdue university, Mitch Daniels. Thank you for taking the time, sir. Good being back, rick. Quickly, two issues considering your resume i would like to speak to are debt and education. On the first, a lot of campaigning whether in 2012 or currently, the biggest drop in the federal deficit in percentage terms ever, that is true, sir. But 2009 at 1. 4, 10, 11, and 12 all over a trillion, the story isnt the percentage drop. The story is the record, the records that were established and now were back in more normal areas. Mr. Daniels, my question to you is, we havent heard anything but promises we cant keep regarding how they end up in debt, debt that we mostly cant pay, and we underestimate to the public at large. Neither candidate seems to be concerned with it. Your thoughts, sir. Mine are like yours, rick. Thereve been a lot to be discouraged about during this election, but to me maybe the single biggest factor is that the most tran sen dent issue, the one that clouds the future of our country, certainly the i, certainly the young people in our country, even our democratic processes didnt get discussed at all, that is to say the national dealt, which has doubled in the last eight years, which is at levels we know are unsustainable and which cloud the future for the Economic Future of this nation in a very ominous way, and neither candidate thats only honest to say had anything useful to say about it. They talked about things that would make it worse, so that will be the work of the next presidency, and lets hope they are a little more serious than they were as a candidate. On education, it just never ceases to amaze me that School Choice by the party that always talks about trying to expand peoples minds and the democratic party, mr. Trump seems to be more for it. What is wrong with voters and their families getting choice as to how to educate their children, sir . Its only wrong when they are denied that choice. If there is a issue that qualifies for the now familiar term social justice, this is it. When rich people tell poor people that our kids can go to a good school, well either live in a good district, public district, or send them to private school, when a high percentage, more than half in many places of our Public School teachers send their own kids to other schools and then tell poor people you cant, thats really an injustice if weve ever seen one. The waiting list for charter schools, the uptick rate where other forms of choice are available prove that low income families and minority families in particular are looking for Something Better for their children. They are just as capable of making those choices as their richer counterparts and its too bad special interest politics continues to try to deny them that basic ability and freedom. With regard to your current role as president of purdue university, there has been many trends lately that seem to correlate with the big growth in social media. It seems though many students that go to college arent just open to the types of discussions maybe in the 60s, 70s, and 80s where lines arent necessarily black and white, things are gray, any thoughts about young people today at your university . I can tell you that at purdue university, and i got ways to prove this, our students are very purposeful, they are serious, they are career minded. Doesnt mean they dont care about other issues and dont have things to say about them, and weve protected their free speech here in a way that very few schools do, but ours is a place for serious students. We have tried to react to their needs. Weve frozen tuition here at purdue. This is the fourth year in a row and it will continue at least one more year. Its less expensive to go to our school allin than it was years ago. Mr. Daniels, we are out of time. Thank you for your thoughts on debt and education. David faber, back to you, sir. All right, thank you very much, mr. Santelli. Now lets send it to john ford. Hes going to give us a look at whats coming up on squawk alley at the top of the hour. John . Were going to continue with the theme and look at historically how the markets perform at times like this, whether its a democrat or republican who wins the presidency. Were also going to talk to a couple venture capitalists about the future for tech and startups under either scenario and finally take a look at the culture with the founders of the skim. They registered a lot of people to vote. That could be an impact. All that and more coming up on squawk alley. Remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. Whos with me . Im in. Im in. Im in. Im in. One, two, wait, wait. Wait wheres tina . Doing the hand thing . Yep we are all in for our customers. Ally. Do it right. We are all in for our customers. Speed always wins. Especially in my business. With slow internet from the phone company, you cant keep up. Youre stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. Switch to comcast business. With highspeed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. You wouldnt pick a slow race car. Then why settle for slow internet . Comcast business. Built for speed. Built for business. And if by chance theres an outlook client there, then theres 99. 99 chance they are duplica duplicates, particularly if she used an imap to download, and for yahoo its a web client again. When you look at how she dealt with emails, unless theres something out of left field that we couldnt possibly have predicted and she said something that was incorrect in both of those interviews, then i dont think theres anything at all to worry about. That, of course, was mark cuban on squawk alley last week predicting the fbis decision on Hillary Clintons emails. Turns out he was right, so we give him credit. That does it for us here on squawk on the street. All 30 dow components are higher. We have a broad rally up 284 and squawk alley is next. [pony neighing] what . Hey gary. Oh. Whats with the dogsized horse . Im crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. Isnt that right warren . Well, you could get support from thinkorswims inapp chat. It lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you dont need a comfort pony. Oh, so what about my motivational meerkat . Inapp chat on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Good monday morning. We are less than 24 hours away from election day. Squawk alley is live