High and oils worth watching on a cautious note. Best buy surging. Hows the turnaround plan looking now . Oil pulling back. Why goldman sees little upward price action for about a year. Toll brothers on the rise. What their report tells us about the housing market. But first up, the big surprise in best buys quarterly results. Up point 8. Guidance goes higher for the coming year. Its funny. A lot of people were expecting this would be a story about gaming, maybe weaker and cell phones maybe weaker. Guess what. They were weaker but appliances, which are on fire as we know from home depot last week, the appliance numbers extraordinary. Very high Single Digits and then something those of us who remember the old days, the housing days of best buy before the crisis, home theaters. People used to buy home theaters as part of the investment in the home. Its back home theaters very strong. Home theaters, appliances, but the end of it is wow. Theres a spend thats going on for the home that we were told of home depot hearing of the chief merchandising officer of best buy saying look where people spending it. Spending it to make the house worth more money. We saw cautious commentary last week about a maturation in the 4k cycle. Clearly not happening . Kind of irrelevant. I mean, i think that when we go off yeah. Certain things happen. I just want to come on from where i was. I would have liked to come on home depot because they explained, listen, theres 4. 3 months of inventory in housing. Okay . Typically 6 months. If we get if we had the household formation of 2000s, we would have 4. 3 million households. This is a new response to the fact that people are making their homes even more worth more because they sense its going up in value. This is quite different from even two years ago. Thats when people were like betting that best buy would be awful. They bought back a lot of stock and they had tremendous faith. It is not a cell phone play. Its not a wearable play. Its an appliance play. Boy, people are spending on appliances like theres no tomorrow. Short interest in the name gone 2x in the past several years. That article, sometimes tough. Talking about selling on the port of jolie and arguing investors are less certain. I care more about angelina i dontly jolie. When i see this strength, i say to myself is, all right, the fed if janet yellen were to read through best buy, she comments on the bio techs, anythings possible. She would say home theater sales are strong. We have got to raise i mean, because thats just like this kind of well, you know what . Consumers feeling too good at the sam time, i think its a reversion like retailers. Reversion to the old days. Nonpromotional, consumer feeling little bit better. I think job growth where people feel better about their job. Home value appreciation. And i think its a sense that people just are looking too much at cell phone. And not looking at the other things that are going into a house. Jcpenney call, ellison, is he fabulous . Talking about the need to have more home spend in Jcpenney Stores because appliances are giving them eight times the margin of what was in the space. What was in the space probably, i dont know, boxer shorts. Shower. It is really clear that the smart merchants have caught on to this theme. Jcpenney is very smart. It aint the old jcpenney and aint the old best buy. Im impressed. People short best buy say it cant be maintained but home depot saying to 2018. Could be a long and nasty short. Queue thomas hops. Indeed. Do you believe that one of the surprises of the quarter in general has been the lack of promotion or maybe an easing of promotion . There was a moment in the fabulous Urban Outfitters call, the stock was up. They liked it. Where hain, whos a great merchant, its regular. Regular prices. I almost fell out of my chair. Regular. When was the last time you had regular pricing . I mean, other than target, i dont know, maybe the weather was bad on targets side of the street, not clear to me. Other than target, i heard a lot about nonpromotional. Wait until pvh tomorrow. I wonder if they dont say nonpromotional. You listen to the 0 calls and what did well . What was like denim. Denim is huge. Denims back and bigger than ever appliance, denim, all these things are remember the mall . Pink. Have you been i dont to no. The answer to that question is no. I see people at pink. The register is ringing at pink. Pink. Bath and body works which did quite well. Yeah. Best buy call. I think people start questioning their overall negativity and then go to zoes kitchen, a chain that was doing quite well and say, wait a second. Theyre not going out for food. I have General Mills on tonight. Ken powell. People are staying home. Well, because its more expensive to eat out than relative to groceries. At the margin. The labor costs are up. Wages. They got too expensive. Too expensive to go out versus stay in. Except for if you want to do something for the home and wait a second. The large ticket items at home depot, the plus 900, large ticket items, theyre not feeling bad. Theyre just spending their money more wisely. Putting investments in. Ellison, i urge everyone to read the jcpenney call saying theyre spending on furniture. Very interesting. Lets seema dress firm with a bid and people want the lie down on the mattress before they buy it. Seeing furniture, you want to feel what it looks like. Ethan allen. Near 52week high. Versus wayfair, the Online Furniture didnt do as well. You come back to people saying, i feel great about my home. I dont need to have a fancy dinner. Yeah. I think thats really speaks to collective zeitgeist right now. Goldmans reiterating the forecast through next summer. And the view that the Oil Price Recovery is fragile. They say, quote, while discussions of an opec freeze and a weakening dollar have been catalysts for the sharp reversal of oil prices this month, we believe neither will be sufficient to support prices much further. Essentially saying any cuts can be made up for very quickly. You know, what happened again, last week, we heard that there was definitely going to be a russia saudi agreement. Okay . Whats happening is people have to recognize this. You hear theres an agreement, dont believe it. s in everybodys interest to pump more. Saudis, the possibility, they dont talk about they talk about nigeria and iran. The capability of the iraq, iran, libya. We have to recognize is that capability of the permia. Contra resources did a deal of ac acreage of texas and mid land and you can make a fortune. Go back to see sheffield in pioneer. Prices through what the saudis make and existing pipe and get it out there to refine it. Were seeing the glut continues and we get to 48, 50. The Oil Companies in our country sell futures and knock it down to 39, 40, where everyone shuts down and saying we wont sell our oil there. Meantime, saudis keep pumping. They dont want to lose the market share. It is its i thought the goldman call was good. After goldman be erratic, too negative, too positive. This is good. This is the heidi thing for them. Too cold, too hot, just right. Yeah, yeah. Worstcase, bear case 20. That was the porridge too hot on that call. This is a smart call. What about the oxi ceo saying its not profitable until 80 . Does that still exist . I can show you north dakota regions where they just you could say its 60, 70. I have outside of denver, may be 70, 80. Go for running out what was cheap and going higher. All the good stuff is done. Perm iran is just the way it was in giant. When they filmed in it martha, i dont know if youve been there. Gorgeous sunset. One of the best movie posters ever made. Yeah. Toll brothers posting a profit of 61 cents a share matching estimates. Revenue above forecast up more than 23 . Sales and prices increased from a year earlier. Backlogs up 19. Average selling price now 8. 42 from 7. 24 last year. Yeah. Toll reports, this is something for people at home to recognize. Toll reports and immediately the story line is they missed. I go over. I know bob toll from the old days because im from philadelphia. Theres like 47 loins and 46 of them are good and one to pull which is that the average selling price 831,000 versus 841,000. They bought 2 of the shares back. The net signed contracts rose 24 . Net income up. Units up 24 . How can be bad . This is a good quarter from a company of a stock languished and referendum on the prices of brooklyn prices cant be maintained. Some of the urban properties but a smaller part of the business saw number of units softer than expected. Well, you know, i mean, how much will you pay for a three bedroom overlooking the Brooklyn Bridge . Im part of that conservancy. It is nice. A dynamite view. A certain point, carl, you know, i can i watch netflix instead of the view. Sit there and, like, that sunset. Doesnt require 4 million. Netnet you like the quarter . You like toll . Yes. I do. But now someones going to say, you idiot. Janet yellen speaks friday. Forget what bob toll says. I dont know. Those trading, theyre going to janet yellen says rate tightening and why did kramer that moron talk about how good toll did . Theyre concerned about Interest Rates. By the way, a programming note, Toll Brothers ceo will be a guest on power lunch today. Thats, of course, 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. Hes very straight shooter. When we come back, big winner at the rio olympics, maya dirado, conor dwyer join us this morning. Squares rebound continues. We have an upgrade today. Well look at whenats ahead fo the mobile payments company. We have now 31 sessions without a 1 move on the s p. More squawk on the street from post 9 in a minute. This just got interesting. Why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis and a 200 savings card stop taking cialis and get meor keeping a Hotels Guests cuttinconnected. I to 35,000 fans. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Squares on the rise in the premarket. S stifel upgrading from hold to buy. Stocks up 34 from the june lows. Part of their argument is that larger merchants are warming to it. We have seen this go back and forth, the starbucks deal that eventually faded. Ill tell you. The cfo there, exgoldman and the fantastic cfo of goldman is on the square board and i think together they have given you much more confidence about the lending model they have. They have a good look at the payroll. Now, i use my we use them for caviar for deliveries, just full disclosure. I happen to think theyre very good. If larger merchants do use them opposed to like places like my place, sorry, sorry to my place, but, you know, it could be very good. Remember, if they have a good look at your cash register, they know that you can give you advances, a 6,000 advance. Thats very high rate. So even though i dont think thats score, the stifel guy likes that and talking about sustainability of the software programs. This is a highGrowth Program and david farber would say they trust their people. The way you look at it is not to take into account the stock of the employees. But and so it doesnt look it looks super expensive. A high growth guy will like the fact they raised estimates and i think that sarah, again, i think we talk not enough about cfos on the show, sarah fryer has given people a sense of comfort. You dont think its a Credit Company like signet or like a lending club. This is a company that has a Business Model that if it catches fire people will like. But i like earnings. I just like earnings. Just got this thing about earnings. Larger merchants, she writes, 6 of total gpv right. In 14. Now from 6 to 14. Reflecting growth of 80 year or year. You know, i mean, i dont want to belabor the Conference Call but they talk about the larger merchants that have gone and it was like two guys from harrison, an old name for a twoguy show, i hadnt heard the clients and reminded me of facebook started and talked about a couple of games i never heard of. You need to square has to win somebody big, a big regional. If they do that, then i think its i almost felt like when i read this maybe they know theres going to be a big win. Not that fryer would give them anything theyre not supposed to have but my criticism of dorsey running two companies and concerned about it. Boilerplate bit of lingo to be careful of credit and then i look at the board and i think david viner said that of goldman. Wherever he is he puts the to be sure. So i felt more comfortable. It is for high growth people. Those that like high growth, square can work for you. Maybe theres two two dorseys. Thats some say thats two cramers. Thats right. Interesting you mention the comfort of a good cfo brings you. That discussion with valaent yesterday. Wow. That continues. He talks to the journal today. Well have that later. Hes so good. I believe him. I believe him. Well talk more about valaent. You, of course, a big, large move yesterday and decline through the course of the day. Totally. Talking about that in a minute. Well count down to the opening bell. Another look at the premarket on this tuesday. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Real is touching a ray. Amazing is moving like one. Real is making new friends. Amazing is getting this close. Real is an animal rescue. Amazing is over twentyseven thousand of them. 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I dont want to bet against mr. Smucker, very good ceo. Good company and had the greatest run. I have General Mills on tonight and a much more consistent player and a dividend and buyback story. Zoes kitchen, carl, was the one that people talked about as the breakout mediterranean more natural and organic you know, not unlike chipotle. The chipotle of Natural Organic. Give them credit. A lot of stores in texas and said theres a slowdown, no. You have a terrible confluence of higher labor costs, fewer people and this is a you know, big takeout, too, in the takeout didnt help them. Sure. Again, carl, this was a company that people just said they have the formula because thats what people want is that mediterranean light food. The formula aint working for anybody. Theres a real slowdown in restaurants. Initiates a bunch of names. Yes. Sonics, dardins. Mcdonalds a neutral. Its a quandary. Come down quite a bit. We were excited about mktd. I dont want to theres another guy. Easterbrook. People want to bet against him, be my guest. Look at this. He took it all the way up and people talking about oh my head and shoulders. Blah blah blah. Pay attention to the dividend. Its big there. They have financial flexibility. Labor costs are going up. And people arent going out as much. General mills tonight. Its very interesting. He said that people like to snack during meals. This is new. Its interesting because like the theme of his is they like to stay at home. Yep. And they eat more natural and organic. Looks like they rather eat at home natural and organic than go out. Chipotles still weak. Remember when we talked about the cocooning, the phenomenal of staying home, watching netflix in your new home theater, not going to restaurants. Its back. Its back youre wearing denim when you do. Because youve just bought the home theater package of best buy. Welcome to 1997. Yeah, yeah. Unbelievable. A lot more to get to this morning. Opening bell, a couple of minutes away. Olympic gold medal maya dirado, conor dwyer will ring it. Well talk to them. Narrator it wasnt that long ago. Years of devastating cutbacks to our schools. 30,000 teachers laid off. Class sizes increased. Art and music programs cut. We cant ever go back. Ryan ruelas so vote yes on proposition 55. Reagan duncan prop 55 prevents 4 billion in new cuts to our schools. Letty munozgonzalez simply by maintaining the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. Ryan ruelas no new education cuts, and no new taxes. Reagan duncan vote yes on 55. Sarah morgan to help our children thrive. From the creative galaxy in my idea box. Would you help me make art . Each one of our journeys keeps us young hey, i have an idea well never get older. Arty go be amazing amazing announcer give your Cardboard Box another life. Whmade plastics that tmake them lighter . Rs the lubricants that improved fuel economy. Even technology to make engines more efficient. What company does all this . Exxonmobil, thats who. Were working on all these things to make cars better and use less fuel. Helping you save money and reduce emissions. And you thought we just made the gas. Energy lives here. Youre watching cnbcs squawk on the street live from the financial xhal of the world. The opening bell in about two minutes on this tuesday where dollar continues to surprise us every morning. You are never really sure when you walk in the door. China last year at this time, really bad. We were worried about worldwide crisis. Now its wow, bad day, good day, bad day. Seven straight months if august finishes up. Yeah. That dow going for the only january losing month for the year. Reminds us when you think that so goes january, so goes nothing. No. We have to get rid of the they dont make us money. What do you make of the eurozone, flash pmis . I saw that. I said, oh my god, let me check the pmi and postbrexit. Didnt everybody stop . Casi no theyre cooking with gas over there. Erin burnett enter deuced many e to this. Its a Building Block of manufacturing and talk about europe leading them. Europe. Europe is back. We dont talk about it enough. We ought to get houses in tusca tuscany. That is amazing. Speaking of buyer of monosanto. It suggests the ongoing talks are fruitful. Right. Right. You know . I could be like a ventriloquist. These talks are going faster than i thought. Theyre better than i believed. What can i tell you . I think in the end the regulators arent crazy about that because thats a combination. Be careful about seeds. Im waiting for dow and dupont approval. Yeah. Lets get the opening bell here. The s p bottom of the screen at the big board as we said, u. S. Gold medal swimmers from the rio olympics, maya dirado and conor dwyer. Congratulations to them. Well talk to them in a couple of minutes. At the nasdaq, silicon labs celebrating the 20th anniversary. Swimming on tv is one of the great sports, isnt it . I mean, when you were there, everything, but some things really work well on coverage. Its just a natural on tv. Its a natural live. And the way they have been able to outfit the pool with underwater cameras that track, i mean, its i was fascinated. I remember the old days. I was a runner. I was going to say great one ru. Watch these guys. They have a science to swim. I was like im there in the pool flailing. Terrific to have the nice people. I cant wait to talk to them in a couple of minutes. Mobile eye and delphi. How about this . Confirming to roll out what they say is a fully autonomous driving system by 2019 . There have been lets put it this way. People tried to cash in on this on basically what i would regard as being a lot of hope. A lot of hope on autonomous driving and autonomous driving needs a lot of there are many different aspects, not just what mobile eye has. They have a great product. Delphi is in a lot of cars and makes sense. You are buying a press release. I think a lot of people bought mobile eye on press releases. Delphi less expensive stock. Look, we know its coming, going to happen. If youre buying these stocks on this, recognize tomorrow there will not be a new partnership. You will have bought mobile eye and why did i . Because its not additive to earnings right now and this is a market that wants additive earnings right now. They do say in january theyre going to demonstrate how, for instance, a selfdriving car can navigate a round about, changing lanes, these things. I was out at ford to the Silicon Valley to the basically to the brain trust and, carl, it is a possibility of trying to figure out if its a passenger if its a pedestrian. And then the sacrifice between you versus the pedestrian. Do you take the hit or does the pedestrian take the you have to have more than just visual. You have to have judgment. And i think thats the problem. Judgment. Yeah. People are judging best buy shares in a very good this is now a 16 gain at the open. Supposed to be the worlds greatest short. I think they didnt listen to what ellison had to say. Not the oracle ellison but Marvin Ellison of jcpenney. This is going to take you back to almost almost september of 2015. In terms of price level. Okay. And your pvh is not far behind. Pvh, oh geez. Inventories lean. Regular pricing means back to school, they call pvh saying we need more shirts and ties. All right . You know, pvh, theres like they have a monopoly. Well no. A ol gop think and a gigantic percentage of the ties. And shirts. So i like that call very much. Im pounding the table on that for ages now. But remember, even like the kohls, the nordstrom, they had good numbers, they did not talk about that weary consumer. Consumer goes to target is weary. Weary . Yeah. She is weary. Not at the other place. Target and macys two problematic situations but when you go over these quarters and you listen to these merchants, and theyre telling you, we do not have a lot of inventory, that means they ordered. And its incredible. When you order, where it feeds to, pvh. People have to recognize the brands but, look. Rising tides going to lift all boats. Gamestop up today. It reports. And i think gaming side of best buy wasnt that good. So people like retail. They like retail again. They like down and out retail. Dollar general and dollar tree this week. Will they still like the down scale . I dont know. Thats a good one. Theyre going for the ones beaten up and theyre not going for the ones that are other than walmart and had a great quarter. Walmarts still fiddling out of a business in the uk. Doug mcmillan is saying, listen, im going to close things that dont work. Hes a decisive guy. Hes decisive but indecisive of mad money. I press him every day. Theres Competitive Pressures in house to get him on the show. Yeah, oh man. You cant say i own you. You dont. Hes got a lot to crow about as do everybody, sears does not. A moment on jcpenney. I like the stock very much. 400 macys im sorry. Macys closing back. That doesnt hurt them and 400 sears in the malls theyre in. Thats one of the reasons why appliances are so good. People have just sears is pulling back. He calls it a smaller footprint in the jcpenney and being very polite. Like diminishing every day. Between smucker and zoes, anything regarding food today is having trouble. Chipotling to campbell to kellogg to kroger. Lets see what powell says tonight coming on. They have resurrected cheerios by taking out the gluten and the color. I remember talking about taking out the color of trix. Who will eat in it the american people. Millennials love Natural Organic and tired of food coloring. Campbells was not good quarter. I think they get it together. A very good ceo. Very good. Last time we had him on he talked about the original move to take gluten out of cheerios. No one was talking about it at that time. The basis point swing there is dramatic. The turn. Well people circle back to target. Circle back to home depot. The tragedy of louisiana is not talked about enough and it is a bad tragedy and when i go and look at where the home depots are, they gave 700,000 to emergency fund. Home depot is there first. Theyre like a Department Store red cross. Theyre such a good company. But they that stock deserves to be up. I think they benefit. The west was strong. But 60,000 homes destroyed largely insured, home depots there and you need more appliances and shift it. Even though theres not more than 20 stores, it will matter in their comps. By the way, the president today going to louisiana. Good. I think whys this get overlooked . Its the worst you know, this is a terrible storm. And some areas of the country i have been to thats are fabulous. Very tough. Turns of leading the dow, we have seen strength in footwear, nikes up there. Caterpillar and boeing, jim, after we got those rolling retail Sales Numbers last week out of cat. Seeing caterpillar, i dont think people get that it down deere here. Deere was a short squeeze admittedly. Breaking down the deere call, not selling, not selling and what were what we do sell we are making so much more money on. I predict cat says the same thing. If the yen is stronger, sara eisen, focus more on that, i think what will happen is shell say the komatsu will pull out. The weak hand in the you know, in the deck right now. Caterpillar makes more people than people realize. Being circumspect and put it past them. And they have got supply chain down. They have control of the dealers first time. The network, i like cat. Ive been liking cat and doubling down on cat. I dont care about the numbers that they sell. Its how much money they make. Look at the deere quarter. A terrible quarter i know. I bet you that stock is going there you go. Thats confounding the shorts. Deere and best buys are killing people. We wondered on friday how ag down 11 and construction down 24 and deere made any they made a fortune on everything they sold. By the way, carl, i know you came back from there, carl is back from brazil and brazil is back. Jim last night from american tower. Brazil, hidden strength. The hidden strength of brazil . I mean i do what i can. What can i tell you . They didnt have the soap and no towels there. But boy brazils looking good. Cat and nike and boeing. Foot locker call was so good. People should go listen to that. Dick johnson, what an amazing job. Bringing the dow up 93. Hey, bob. Good morning, carl. Nice up move here. Dow up 93 points right now. Europes having a good day. Good parts of europe up 3 . Italy, germany and spain there. We have the pmi numbers better than expected and having a good day. Here in the u. S. , back to the cyclicals in favor so tech, materials, consumer discretionary. Industrials. And the more defensive names are lagging the markets. So again, little more risk on today. The best buy numbers were just great. I know you made comments about it. I want the point out how good the numbers were. Appliances up 8 . Heavens. Electronics, remember whats going on with walmart and target. They had disappointing electr electron electronics. Up 4 . Thats the key number right there. Computing and mobile phones with a positive number in front of it. Services and entertainment to the downside. So we were talking about this in the morning meeting. One of the last man standing kind of thing still there and still selling phones, still selling appliances, one of the last places to get a lot of these things, there you see best buy up 15 . Bottom line is theyre gaining some market share and critical cat goirls in very difficult parts of the economy right now. Toll brothers, these numbers were really very impressive overall here. See Toll Brothers trading to the upside a bit. In line with consensus revenues. Thats not whats important. Its metrics to see in terms of revenues and orders, revenues up 25 . Remember, this Company Bought a California Company a while ago. Not just a northeast company anymore. They bought chappelle and a significant presence in california and showing up in the revenue numbers. Orders up 18 , a terrific number. People who put down money without signing a contract, thats the difference between orders and reservations deposit. Come back in a few weeks and then sign a contract with us. Even the people putting down just some money has increased rather notably. Bottom line, upper end, what Toll Brothers is doing is holding up very well. The number of contracts, the prices theyre charging, all doing well. Their expansion into california proven to be a plus for them. Californias holding up very well. Theyre opening more communities and theyre selling more homes inside those communities and thats why the revenue is going up. It was one final thing i think is very important to point out about Toll Brothers. And thats the share count reduction. Its not commonly mentioned. They buried it down in the press release but theres a Share Buyback monster. 2 of the shares outstanding before reduced in the Third Quarter. Thats a lot. And in the last nine months, this is their Third Quarter that they fin initialled here and fiscal Third Quarter. They have reduced their share count by 7 . That is an enormous number. Essentially all other things being equal, the earnings up 7 . All other things being equal. And thats a significant change overall. People need to understand how important that is. By the way, we are going to have doug yearley ceo of Toll Brothers on power lunch in the hour. Right now, the dow up 90 points. Guys, back to you. Bob, thank you very much. Im so glad that bob mentioned the Toll Brothers buyback. I think they said they have enough and buying back stock. And the price he bought was 26. 33. You know, this is a man who does not spend his money idly and very charitable. I never mind saying it. Good to know. He wont say it. Thats right. Lets get to the bond pits, as well. Good morning, rick. Good morning, carl. You know, when you say new normal, theres an embedded assumption whatever the new normal is, before when we had the old normal, it was considered abnormal. And the same could be said for so many things. Negative Interest Rates are becoming normal. Lack of movement is not only transcending logic but it is definitely squatting. Just consider were now two days into the fourth week in terms of trading sessions in august. Todays the 17th. Every single one as you see on this chart is settled in the 150s. Boons arent much different. Dollar index, similar except for definitely a downward drift making sense. Ill tell you what. You want life simple . If the fed has a chance of tightening and most likely the next move, its going to flatten the curve. Period. End of story. And you really see that in the 30s minus 5s. Youre basically looking at a chart of march of 15. Thats basically the last time we were this flat. If you look at the dollar yen, thats also really a bit counter intuitive. Many are saying, wow, how could it be doing so well in if you want to see the whole truth about the dollar yen, you cant just go back to the last time it traded here and november of 13. Look at a fiveyear chart for the type of perspective, more fully understand this move. And year to date of the pound versus dollar, that Double Bottom is something definitely you want to Pay Attention to its intact going according to plan say technicians. Carl, back to you. All right. Thank you very much. Rick santelli. When we come back, maya dirado, conor dwyer joins us and the dow up 90 points as we said. Were back in a minute. 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I mean, because you guys just crushed it. Are you aware of that sentiment . Its starting to kind of set in seeing people back here in the states and just the excitement that people felt for the olympics, we are so happy we were able to bring those feelings. The gloom was lifted in the country for a couple of weeks. Right . Yeah. We tried to make some people proud and give you guys something to cheer about. How do you come down from the that . Ive seen a writeup of christmas and then a 9 00 to 5 00 life style. How do you begin that process . She is starting the 9 00 to 5 00. Im going back to training. She is working at mckenzie. 6 00 a. M. To 10 00 p. M. No more naps for her. No more naps. What is the plan with mckenzie . Going right there or wait . No. So they were amazing, called me after the games and we were like, we imagine things are different for you so if you want to push it back, im going to start in january now. Really . Time to kind of decompress, do things like this and then be full bore january when i start. Do you have ideas of things to work on when youre there or the type of clients to want to work for . So i think at the beginning they show you everything but i would love to get into Public Sector work and work in education specifically. I think theres a lot of room for improvement there. We got to talk about the endorsement issue. But im particularly interested and phil knight was on mad money not that long ago and what he explained to me was that they never made a deal that wasnt great for them. And this people who think that endorsements dont work, they really do. Yeah. I dont know. I mean, it seems like when you see these Companies Like speedo, whatever, it occurs to me that americans like to buy what athletes wear. Yeah, we are fortunate recipients of that. I have bmw as a sponsor. I was like, really, me . Im sure man did the research and really honored to represent bmw and speedo. Conor, how do you begin youll do tokyo, i assume. Yes, yes. So, how does the how soon does the active preparation for that begin . Ive already done a few workouts after the olympics. Ill stay out of the pool for three weeks to a month and then hop back in training pretty soon. What do you think tokyo will be like . Everybodys talking about the time difference and were doing several games in asia for our parent company. I think theyre going to crush it. Ive heard theyre well prepared. Who knows . You know, the media will like to bring something down and scare us before it starts so who knows what that is. Not all of us. Want to ask you. Look. Mabel its just my impression but are swimmers after swimming, done better than most other sports . I was at the nfl, recently visiting a Training Camp and all worried about what happens after football. Not that many people are worried about swimming. Are you a good record of Business People after . Thats a great point. I think, you know, swimmers learn so many great skills through the sport and you have to do time management and working super hard to balance your school and swimming, you know, throughout your whole life and i think it lends itself to making the transition really well to life after swimming and that you know how to work hard and be really focused. Work day starts at 5 00 a. M. And ends at 6 00 p. M. And we are used to the grind. When you are in the water, we talked about how nbc has outfit how the olympic committees have put the cameras in the pool. Do you see them swimming . Yeah, yeah. You see them moving under you. Is it distracting . I had a moment where they put it i was going to the turn and there was a camera like right there and so if i had swam closer, i would have hit it. That was shocking but other than that youre used to it at that point. That was the money shot. How did they get that . Whats tokyo going to be like without phelps and lochte . Who knows . Maybe theyll both be back . I think theres a lot of young talent on our team to help carry the role of winning a lot of gold medals. I mean, i dont want to beleaguer the lochte stuff but are you guys is the team mad . Shaking your head . Whats the overall emotion regarding what happened with his situation . A little bummed. Bummed for him and the sport that that was the story. When we had an incredible week the first week. A record medal haul for us and then for the athletes in the second week overshadowed, they work four years for a moment and then thats the story and were definitely bummed but i think people remember the first week and how excited they were. Do you think its forlten over time and fade . I think so. He made a mistake and i think hell bounce back. Have you ever rung the opening bell or been here before . Ive been here before with tom farley. You have . Hes taken me around. Great. Name dropping. I have my executive producers husband went to loyola, go rambler. Go ramblers. Congratulations. Theyll gorgeous. Thank you. Thank you for having us. Well get trading with jim. Dows up 92. Dont go away. Whats happening here . This is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. But thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. I guess we dont need the kid anymore. Custom alerts on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. With this level of engineering. Its a performance machine. With this degree of intelligence. Its a supercomputer. With this grade of protection. Its a fortress. And with this standard of luxury. Its an oasis. Introducing the completely redesigned eclass. Its everything you need it to be. And more. Lease the e300 for 549 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. What w here to buy a car. Your Business Needs Better Technology to drive better performance. So you need it to be reliable and fast. Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings event. Fast Internet Speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. Time for cramer and stop trading. I talked about the industrials and how great theyre doing. Theres really good call overlooked. Credit suisse today with Johnson Controls on the list. We have raving about this. This may be the new industrial that the Portfolio Managers go to. I know its up a lot and really has lagged and i think that you have got september 2nd and then 15th analysts meeting. This is one you can still buy. Cant wait for General Mills tonight. I love that. Epr property. They own a Charter School and golfing and resorts, movie theaters. But its Real Estate Investment trust. A great story few people care about except for me and people that bought it at 40 points ago. Well listen to ken powell. Smart guy. See you tonight. 6 00 p. M. When we come back, independent president ial candidate Evan Mcmullin as the nasdaq sets a new high. Whether its connecting one of the worlds most innovative campuses. Or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Good tuesday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. David farber is off. Dow up 89. S p about a point away from an alltime high. Nasdaq got there and the russell is within 3. 7 of doing the same. Oil, by the way, down 4669. We have breaking Economic Data at this hour. Rick santelli in chicago with that. Rick . August richmond fed. This is realtime in terms of Chronological Order and minus 11. Minus 11 places it at the weakest levels since january of 13. Now, july new home sales, wow, this is a big number. Were expecting 580. We ended up 564,000. Im going to have to flip quite a few pages to see when the last time we were anywhere near im sorry. 654,000. Youd have to go back to wow. 07. October of 07 to get a bigger number. Little perspective, though. 1. 4 million is the high watermark and up 12. 4 . Diana olick that is surprise strong number. Your thoughts . I think its a great number. We have the look at the june number revised down to 582 so looking at that 12 shift, part of that in that mix and also seeing the supply of new home sales for sale going down. So thats going to put more upward pressure on prices. We did see a slight drop in the median price of a new home sold in july to 294,600. May be a mix shift of smaller homes. We are seeing a lot of builders start to build smaller homes and seems to be whats in demand right now but thats a nice jump up for the month of july. Because, remember, this number is based on signed contracts. Not closings. Which is a number we see for existing home sales and people out shopping in july, walking through those new models and signing on the dotted line. Again, its a great number for the month. We have to continue to watch these prices because whats really been selling is the higher end newly built homes so well be watching prices and a great start for july. Back to you. Diana, thank you for that analysis on that better than expected new home sales data. Meantime, watching shares of best buy rising more than 15 after the retailer beat analysts estimates. Company seeing a big sales growth in some of its Consumer Electronics along with a big jump in online revenue. For more on what it takes to keep best buy on this path of profitability, lets bring in Matt Mcclintock and peter keith. Peter, you are on hold with this stock and now the price has moved beyond your target. You must have been surprised like many other analysts to see the strength in the best buy results. When surprised you most . Sure. I would say the standout positive for us was the positive same store sales growth of 0. 8 in the u. S. We were expecting a slight decline. I think expectations were even probably for negative 1, negative 2. And what this does is it sets the stage up better for the back half of the year where best buy all year has been guiding for revenue increases in the back half. We have been skeptical of it. But with positive same store sales growth in q3 and now a new iphone cycle it looks like the likelihood of growth is much stronger at this point. Yeah. I mean, matt, would you agree . Seems like you were a little more positive on the name going into this number. Yeah, i would actually agree with everything peter just said. More importantly, i think you should look at ecommerce growth. It was up 24 . Thats one of the best ecommerce growth rates for the entire retail industry. Beat target, walmart, it set ra. Amazon potentially isnt as big of a threat for best buy as it is for a target or a walmart. If you would stay with us and on this note Courtney Reagan reporter on retail was just on the call with the ceo at hq with headlines here. Courtney . Thats right. Its interesting because theres focus on the online sales for best buy up 24 . Thats particularly important as weve seen other retailers like target and walmart see their growth rates actually begin to decelerate so up 24 is really something to be proud of. And they said on the media call that the online traffic was strong and really helped the conversion increase. Thats a big issue online. You see sometimes traffic but you cant necessarily get the consumers to follow through to checkout and getting much better at best buy for that conversion to actually get customers to make a purchase. Joly says that best buy can ship small packages if two days or less and most of them, a large percentage of the store ship free without a subscription. A little tiny dig there at amazon without saying it and added that part of the journey does happen digitally for shoppers coming to Consumer Electronics so the improvements that they have made on the website has actually really helped keep shoppers engaged on both of those channels, the store and online. And speaking of the stores, joly says traffic is down in stores, its been down for sometime. But conversion is also up in stores and joly credits the website in part for preparing the shopper in advance, doing the research, knowing what theyre looking for in the final step of the process and seeing it in store. Joly says best buy doesnt comment on specific vendors and said they have a strong relationship with both apple and samsung noting the shop and shops for both the brands and hundreds of the stores and key because target called out weakness in apple products saying it was responsible for the third of those double digit sales declines. Best buy wouldnt go into that much detail. Down 20 . Seems like a lot of retailers not going in that direction. Courtney, thank you. Thank you, sara. We have two Analysts Covering this stock. Peter and matt. Peter, has best buy figured out how to avoid the showrooming concept . I think you can definitively say yes at this point with that strong online growth of 24 . When they compare the sales growth versus industry data, not perfectly apples to apples and looks like market share gains across the store. One area where we have been particularly impressed is in the computing area, thats an area broadly speaking for consumers down and continuing to show growth there. The old saying that best buy is losing market share to amazon is outdated. Matt, i wonder, just exactly how much investors can extrapolate from even a very good quarter in the second quarter. Obviously for best buy, like a lot of retailers, not the most crucial quarter of the year. Do any of the queues you see from this quarter carry over to holiday . Can you say that this company has momentum and deserve something more than a 11 or times times earnings on the stock where it about trades . Yeah. I think on the holiday and the back half of the year, as peter mentioned earlier, we are going into an iphone cycle and helps in 3q, more importantly, the company prooufb to remain relevant in televisions and telling 4k tvs and selling ate as a complete package with a home theater product and the consumer has discussions with people who know what theyre talking about about how to set it up in their house and people investing in houses, houses as we mentioned earlier on the show, houses are smaller and people want to invest more in the houses and stuff to be nice and best buy presents a complete package and potentially do this holiday to differentiate themselves from other retailers who just compete on price. Going into the quarter, peter, the worry is 4k tvs, downgrade last week saying that theres going to be more competition. The demand diminished. The average selling prices for 4k tvs diminished. What did we learn about that today . Yeah. The tv we look at average selling price on tv and coming down at 30 analyzed rate. I think the asp right now is about below 1,000 in 4k walmart is more relevant in the category and we think they will be a lot more competitive this holiday season. Although when you look at the results for q2, you have to credit best buy they lock like theyre continuing to take share in tvs and near term probably no stoppage in that dynamic. And finally, matt, i would just note that 73 of analysts tracked by fact set have a hold on the stock. Fewest number of buys in a while. Is that a reason for optimism . Is there too much negativity around this name . I think thats right and too much negativity. Whens interesting is best buy trades at roughly 10 to 12 times price to ratio. They face threat from digital or more importantly amazon and questions on the terminal value of their Business Model. I think best buy is a sustainable Business Model. What they sell is innovation. When the consumer wants to see new innovation, they want to see it in the physical world. And dont want to spend 2,000 before they see what theyre buying and you need somebody to walk you through the process of purchasing that new item youre not familiar with so i think best buy is a company not viewed as a structurally challenged retailer but a company on the tail end of an innovation cycle and we potentially can go into a new innovation cycle of connected home or some of the interesting services theyre starting to offer. Well see what the holiday brings on that front. Good discussion on best buy. Thank you. When we come back, oil falling again as goldman says this recent recovery is fragile and not driven by fundamentals. A look at where it could go and what it means for the markets. Independent candidate Evan Mcmillin will join us. Why donald trump is in his words a total disaster. When squawk on the street continues. As a supervisor at pg e, its my job to protect public safety, keeping the power lines clear, while also protecting the environment. The Natural World is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it. Public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines. We want to keep the power on for our customers. We want to keep our community safe. This is our community, this is where we live. We need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. Together, were building a better california. Oil moving lower following a 3 loss yesterday and after bearish comments this morning of goldman sachs, Jackie Deangelis is live with more. The call getting traction . Good morning to you. It is. Remember, goldman reiterating the most recent range, 45 to 50 but saying that the recovery of that 20 runup in 2 weeks is fragile. Thats part of the move lower today. The other piece are the fact that we have this huge runup i mentioned, you have some Short Covering and new longs and when the shorts stop covering and the longs start taking profits, you have pressure back down. The move in the dollar ahead of the fed, yellens comments very much key and support in the trade around 46. We are getting very close to that range right now. But its unlikely that were going to see crude breakout, you can, over 50 or under that 45 mark. Meantime, this morning iran has said it that will commit to the opec talks late in september. Speculation that we would see a freeze or some sort of cooperation sent these prices a little bit higher and it wasnt enough to go over 50 at this point. All eyes on september and so many other factors to consider here, as well. Back to you. So many factors. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Stocks are in the green nearing alltime highs as Oil Continues to struggle as jackie mentioned. Goldman sachs rit lating the 45 to 50 price range for crude and warning not even opec can save struggling oil prices stating while a discussion of opec freeze and a weakening dollar have been a catalyst, we believe neither is sufficient to support prices much further. Joining us now to discuss the markets more, jim paulson at Wells Capital and sam margalin at cohen. Thank you for joining us here. Sam, lets start with you in terms of your broad outlook for crude right now, a lot of talk of these kind of external factors that seem to be driving things, investor positioning, the dollar, or even just a kind of whispers of supply cutout of opec. What do you think of the most salient points right now . I think currency and sentiment are the two most important things right now. I dont think fundamentals become important until next year. And thats why the opec meetings are so important in the next four or five months. If theres no freeze thats bearish and opec will continue to grow into this oversupplied market and what we have seen i think that supports the idea of a freeze is that opecs really sort of exhausted its commercial opportunities in the market. Theres no room to grow. Theres no buyers to grow right now and so a freeze is a nice way to make the optics of no more demand look actually somewhat bullish and thats our angle for that view but i agree right now, currencys number one and sentiment is probably number two as far as whens moving the price over the past call it four weeks. Your current take is a september freeze is basically priced into the oil market but maybe a cut in november would not be . Yeah. I think a cut in november would offer material upside. From a fundamental standpoint the move from 38 to 48 doesnt do a whole lot. It doesnt make any Oil Producers profitable or cheap from an equity standpoint and so a lot of that move is noise and just trading. I dont think you get a real supply demand push until next year and that would certainly be accelerated by anything that opec does. Yeah. Jim, just to broaden it out here, you know, maybe theres not a lot of evidence of big uptick in demand for oil but the markets are suggesting that there has been a little bit of a pickup in some of these cyclical forces. You pointed out late last week you see a global rebound in the economy right now. What does that mean for markets and fed policy in your view . I do, mike. I mean, i think if you look at a lot of Global Economic surprise indices, they make quite a move upward here since march from one of the lowest levels of the recovery to one of the highest and i think thats sort of reflected as you said the stock market, not only markets everywhere up but cyclicals and the commodity markets. I mean, crude might not be up as much as we like but still up a lot off the lows and industrial Commodity Prices up 20 , as well. Corporate bond spreads are continuing to tighten as though theres a recovery going on globally. I think if we get a global not necessarily strong Global Growth but just synchronize bounce in growth of china to japan, europe to here that would be optimism for a period among equity investors. The primary thing it would do is radically upscale earnings estimates. The one of the tough things for the stock market last couple of years is earneings estimates going up and i think the actual earnings are going to maybe outpace expectations. The bad side is as you bring up, if we do get a synchronized global bounce, it is the first of the recovery, coming at a time when were already at full employment here in the united states. I think it will escalate the feds exit strategy. Speaking of that, sam, i wonder we are still looking at the home sales number of this morning. And you couple that with maybe some other things later in the week. Does it prove that dudley and fischer not just trying to jawbone the market . Well, i mean, the fed is going to be moving forward with rate policy at some point. I think the question for commodities is the pace. Oil can probably sustain upside at 25 basispoint raises over time sequentially. You know . If the economy really is growing that much faster than what was appreciated six months ago and the hikes faster than that, thats more of a head wind but i think the base case right now aligns with, you know, 17 being a broadly better year for commodities than oil specifically. All right. Sam, jim, thanks very much, guys. Up next, widespread outrage as the price of epipen surges to over 500. More than 400 increase of 2007. A look at why and what if any action is being taken to fight that. Have a look at the homebuilders. Better numbers of toll this morning an as carl mentioned, a better number on new home sales for the month of july. Up more than 12 near a nineyear high. What if a company that didnt make cars made plastics that make them lighter . The lubricants that improved fuel economy. Even technology to make engines more efficient. What company does all this . Exxonmobil, thats who. Were working on all these things to make cars better and use less fuel. Helping you save money and reduce emissions. And you thought we just made the gas. Energy lives here. Lawmakers pushing for answers as the price of epipens skyrockets to over 500. Our meg tirrell at hq with details. Hey, meg. The price is increasing steadily over the past few years and now as it does start to put psh on consumers, patients ability to access the epipen, senators are starting to Pay Attention. Take a look at the graph of the price of epipen over the last few years. Its made by mylan and steadily ticked up there. This is starting to cause some consternation. There was an article last week from nbc news about back to School Season and this is catching the attention of folks in congress. Bernie sanders tweeting about this last week saying theres no reason an epipen which costs mylan a few dollars to make should cost families more than 600 and senator grassley sent a letter to the ceo inquiring about the price increases and plowed back into the product. Mylan sent us a statement saying that with changes in the Health Care Insurance landscape, an increasing number of people and families are enrolled in High Deductible Health plans and deductible amounts continue to rise. This shift has presented new challenges for consumers and theyre bearing more of the cost. Mylan said theyre doing a lot to help those specific patients access epipens with some for free or copay assistance to them but clearly this is starting to pressure the shares. Down 3. 5 today. Analysts starting to Pay Attention to this saying this kind of attention really isnt good for mylan, clearly. Wondering if theres more sort of formal congressional inquiries. Today, senator blumenthal will discuss this. Back to you. Theres a lot of awareness of this issue. On the local news this week. Meg, thank you. And the move is even being criticized by martin shkreli. He jacked up prices in 2015. In an interview of nbc news, he says, quote, these guys are really vultures. What drives this companys moral compass . And i just wonder whether he was being tongue in cheek because, of course, he is one of the most hated price hikers in the country. Yeah. Maybe only nixon can go to china. Only he can complain about medical device prices. This is, you know, one way to get some attention, too. But, you know, i still think its a very fascinating thing for investors to see how any company can get in the crosshairs and become an object of scorn and ridicule based on one product. Right or wrong, its definitely a hazard in this area. This morning, independent president ial candidate Evan Mcmillin on whens a unique strategy to win the white house and deny both clinton and trump a victory. Well talk about that in a moment. Good morning, everybody. Im sue herera. Heres the cnbc news update at this hour. A u. S. Service member died from wounds sustained in afghanistan. It happened during training activities of counterparts when the patrol triggered an explosive device. Six Afghan Soldiers were wounded. Four people were killed, three of them were children in a fire in chicagos south side earlier this morning. Its a threestory apartment complex and police said that man suspected of started the fire is taken into custody. Firefighters in california continue to battle the chimney wildfire in central california. More than 33,000 acres have burned and its only 35 contained. The blaze threatening the legendary Hearst Castle getting within 2 miles of that estate. And the court of arbitration for sport rejecting russias appeal to overturn the banishment from the Paralympic Games next month ruled the International Paralympic committee didnt violate rules in banning the team for doping. That is the cnbc news update this hour. Carl, ill send it back down to you. Sue, thank you very much. Turning the politics now. Clinton leading trump according to the latest polling of nbc news and survey monkey. Clintons 8point lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National convention. Our next guest is trying to disrupt that equation. Evan mcmullin is running for president as an independent candidate and joining us here at post 9. Good to have you here. Thank you. You have consistently argued no way trump can win and yet several pollsters say theres plenty of time in which he can win. Why is that not so . Polls suggesting that hes so far behind, i think at this late stage in the game its very difficult and less about the polls, actually. And more about how hes alienated so many sets, so many portions of the american population. Just very difficult. And when you look at the battleground states, he is performing worse than on a national level. Down by 14 Percentage Points in virginia, it is difficult. Difficult but not impossible. In this election i wouldnt have entered this race if this election if the normal was the routine here. Obviously, anythings possible here. He could come back but he would have to become a different person and i just dont see that happening. Abc news reporting citing a memo of your campaign your goal here is to block clinton and trump from 270 electoral votes and send the election to the house of representatives. What makes you think its going to happen . I would say thats one path to victory. Another path is that donald trump continues to implode and then just fades off in the polls or decides to get out because his ego wont allow him to do so poorly and stay in the race. Who knows . Anything is possible. But yes. That is possible. This is unlike any other time, 82 of americans are unhappy with the direction of this country. 82 . 42 of americans consider themselves independents. There are a lot of factors that are different this year, this time around that open up opportunities i think for independent candidates. Do you think that a message that you might put out there to resonate to say we want to stop one of these two from becoming president . What else are you offering a voter besides a protest or a tactical vote to prevent them from winning . Thank you for the question. Its much more than that. I firmly believe its time for a new generation of leadership. Both donald trump and Hillary Clinton are offering old ideas on the trump side bigotry and misonlyny and the hillary side, centralized top down government and insiders flourish and the rest of america struggles to be heard. These are old ideas. For us to prosper and be secure, we need to shed the ideas an move on and thats what i propose and offer. Isnt this easier to do a year ago . Yes. Why didnt you do it then . I hoped like so Many Americans that someone else who has National Name i. D. And an infrastructure already in place to do it. I only did this because it was the last moment possible and knowing that no one else would do it. Someone had to the requested. I had the opportunity so i did. Can you walk viewers through your map strategy . Where can you win . Where is it logistically possible to win and where do you think you will . Were getting on the ballots where we can across america. There are many ways to do that through petitions and also through third parties. Who want to work with us and legal challenges and writein campaigns and many ways for us to give American Voters the opportunity to vote for me. So well be, you know, were focusing on the mountain west, clearly part of our strategy. Well be elsewhere, as well. But were already on idaho or were soon to be on idahos ballot. Utah, colorado, iowa. These are some of these swing states in the election. How much will it cost you . Well, we have Different Levels of activity based on different funding levels. We are confident well have what we need to compete in the way were describing. Of course, more money will help us compete more broadly across the country. But based on the way things have gone, were confident well have what we need. On your economic message, evan, what stood out to me when we spoke a few weeks ago is that you are actually a supporter of tpp unlike the current two president ial candidates. And youre a supporter of free trade. What else would you tell those americans who that antitrade message resonating with, left behind in this recovery and have not seen their wages rise in decades. Well, thank you for the question. I would say first of all i hear you. There are people out there very much struggling and i believe that many in this country, many lead Emergency Rooms in the country, have ignored them. Thats part of the problem. Part of the problem of a centralized government in washington, d. C. That doesnt hear the people. They need to be heard. Their concerns are legitimate. We cant pander to that. We need to speak the truth to them and the rest of america. We have been groying for last ten years, gdp growing under 2 . We cannot have on average whats the plan to get that growth . Trade. Trump has lower taxes, get rid of regulations and help business. Thats true. It will. He says we need a moratorium on regulations. I would say we need some Structural Reforms so that as we regulate, the peoples voices are heard in that process. Yes, i want lower taxes, too, on the corporate level and the individual level. We have to trade and thats one of the biggest flaws in his rhetoric is he says that, you know, trade is harming us more than its helping us and thats not the case. 95 of the worlds consumers outside of our border. We have also got to take care of the people suffering as a result of transitions in industries. You know, it is not only two other candidates. How would you distinguish what youre proposing from the libertarian ticket thats out there and getting a lot of support . I would say noother of the two other Third Party Candidates if you will are prepared to keep this country safe. I spent over ten years with the Central Intelligence agency on the front lines of the National Security efforts and i know from day one what needs to happen to keep this country safe. None of them do. They have fantasy ideas about americas role in the world and not leave us better protected to be secure and prosperous in the country. Thats first and foremost. Im the only conservative candidate in this race on social issues and on government reform issues. None of the other candidates, whether large or small, have these views. Were going to watch your campaign. Thank you very much. As you make your way across the country. Come back. Welcome and come back any time. I hope so. I would love to. Thank you. Joining us here candidate. We turn to john harwood this morning as trump reportedly changing his tune on what is his signature issue, immigration. John harwood in washington with that. Hey, john. Reporter carl, we expect politicians to adjust their positions over time. Thats why theyre politicians, running for office, seeking votes but this is an extraordinary circumstance with donald trump here. First of all, lets remember that the core issue that he has flagged from the beginning of his campaign was that the what he has called the open border immigration policy of president obama has been a disaster for the united states. Heres his recent Foreign Policy speech. President obama has weakened our military by weakening our economy. Hes crippled us with wasteful spending, massive debt, low growth, a huge trade deficit and open borders. Open borders. Now, donald trump has fallen behind in the polls. He is doing very poorly with latino voters. He met with latino leaders over the weekend. Now listen to what he told bill oreilly on fox last night. What people dont know is that obama got tremendous numbers of people out of the country. Bush the same thing. Lots of people were brought out of the country with the existing laws. Im going to do the same things. Well go through the process like they are now perhaps with more energy. Im a problem solver. I will not disappoint those people. I will not find that. I know how to solve problems. Reporter so you see that donald trump said ill do the same thing, follow the process we have now. That is not what i think most supporters of donald trump have been expecting. Now, is this going to cost him support . Im not sure its going to drive away his existing supporters. They have bonded with him pretty strongly but fuels the arguments of critics made that policy doesnt mean very much to donald trump and cant take the words that come out of his mouth particularly seriously. In the same news cycle, john, a story of additional emails on the clinton side and some say links liabilities, the Clinton Foundations paying for access and the server. What damaging is that . Reporter i think its damaging if people can show that her conduct as secretary of state was influenced by donors to the Clinton Foundation and the use of access by those donors. Havent seen that so far. We have seen people seeking meetings, come got them, some didnt. I think the real bang to this story is if somebody can show that Hillary Clintons actions as secretary of state were influenced by it. John, im just wondering if you can give us an update on the Congressional Republicans that are up for reelection and just how much the trump effect is impacting them. I know rob portman, for instance, in a tough race in ohio and largely ignored donald trump. Reporter it is working for them to the extent he is leading. But everyone in a race for house and senate thats competitive is facing so long as donald trump is behind and he was down 8 points in our nbc survey monkey poll this morning facing a drag of donald trump. Now, people like rob portman, toomey, ayotte trying to swim against that tide and some of them may succeed. But democrats have a lot of targets and republicans are increasingly concerned that they could lose the senate, see their margins narrowed in the house. Getting interesting now. Thank you very much. Meanwhile, activist investor carl icahn said the archie bunkers of the world will support donald trump. Bunker was the lead of the legendary 1970s sitcom all in the family. We asked norman lear how it would play today. This is a clip of season two of binge. How do you think archie plays today . Just as an idea. Theres no reason why it wouldnt play today. We were dealing with human problems. Havent gone away. I mean, on the one hand you have archie who is feeling alone as these progressive ideas move along, right . Right. Gain traction. Which, i mean, you think tell me if you think im wrong. Speaks to a lot of how the country feels now. I couldnt agree with you more. He was not a hater. He was somebody who feared progress. What would you do differently . What would you do the same . Hard to get it different. There couldnt be another archie bunker in my view or ed it bunker. Those two people are so indelible in those roles. I think i think calling another actor or looking for another talent to play that role wouldnt be unfair to the actor. So indelible are they. But the reason for being or for, you know, doing it all in the family exists and will exist always. Well have more of norman lear next hour where he urges binge watchers to put down the phones. Season two is streaming now on cnbc. Com, apple tv, youtube and hulu. Coming up in a couple of weeks, well talk to Morgan Freeman about the projects he has going on. Interesting to see someone in their 90s reinvent themselves for the modern content distribution. Unbelievable how active he is. Yet he says draws the line at the phone. Dont watch that way. Did he weigh in on the archie bunker liking donald trump . We get to a lot of politics is a big part, of course, lear for years. Amazing. Look forward to it. Thanks a lot. Coming up, the future of twitter according to former Ceo Dick Costolo joining us on squawk alley and the markets we are still up. We are within hailing distance of the record highs, s p 500 just below that intraday high. A good car has to maneuver quickly. Thats also true of a good car company. People have always bought cars. But we saw an opportunity in sharing cars. So we moved fast and launched car2go in 29 cities, all around the world. Doing that required dozens of data centers, designed for speed and performance. We built our business on the ibm cloud. Because thats what the ibm cloud is built for. After pfizers big deal for medivation, are there other big opportunities . Find out at tradingnation. Cnbc. Com. S p flirts with a record high. Lets get over to the cme group. Rick santelli has the santelli exchange. Rick . Oh, home sales came in a lot better. Like to welcome my special guest, john cochran. You just heard sara, it is all about growth. We need growth in the u. S. Economy. We dont have growth. And the answer always seems to be more money equals more growth. I have 8 trillion reasons why that doesnt work. 8 trillion of new debt since the recession. The last stimulus was 787 billion. One of the candidates, hillary, this isnt about candidates, they both want more infrastructure. She wants about 50 billion a year over 5 years. The Student Loan Program alone, the portfolio, uncle sam has, is 1. 3 trillion. Huge amount of nonperforming loans. This alone is probably going to cost between 80 billion and 100 billion a year. It doesnt offset that. The wheres the logic to any of this, john . Well, logic . You certainly got the sales talk. And youre right. It is on both sides. Mr. Trumps stimulus and infrastructure plan only bigger and more beautiful than hillarys. The logic is that somehow by the Government Spending a whole lot of money and even wasting it somehow thats the key to growth. Thats not what your grandmother told you. Thats not what any common sense tells you. Boy is that the idea of the moment, isnt it . It is. And, you know, down here, stimulus and i hate to say it but its the reality i deal with, down here its synonymous of slush fund. You pointed it out. Giving and taking money for the most inefficient deployment of funds, the government, just seems like a crazy idea. What are your thoughts on regulations in trade . You bring up in many of your writings at rags almost make efficient spending of stimulus and possible think davis bacon and in terms of the media, well, every reg is a good reg and anybody antitrade has to be crazy. Listen, theres good and bad regs and even though trade floats all boats, might be many ways to make trade fairer in the eyes of the u. S. What is wrong with those ideas . Well, lets see. First point. Yes. You know, now theres the big stimulus and infrastructure plans. I think economists have done a great disservice coating this idea that we can just waste money and thats good for the economy. We need infrastructure. But lets think about why were not able to get infrastructure. Its hardly a new idea that potholes and bridges and things to be fixed. Poor president obama. Hes been trying to spend money and cant get anything built in the u. S. Today. Hes been rather successful at spending the money. But yet, i dont look and see a new version of the hoover dam. I dont look and see a new version of air traffic control. That isnt in the analog age. Where does this money go . Right. Well, it goes to a lot of lawyers and studies and the government mostly sends people checks. Infrastructure is first inefficient. We dont build stuff with people and shovels anymore. We build stuff with machines. Doesnt provide a lot of employment. Its good to have the infrastructure but to sell it as a Growth Program i think is a big mistake. I got you. John, thank you. I think if we had good growth the infrastructure would naturally follow. Thank you for being our guest today. Carl, back to you. Thank you. When we come back, whats left behind in the lost and found at a casino . Our jane wells is on the case in los angeles. Jane . So much stuff is left behind. Californias largest casino is doubling the size and staff of the lost and found to of lost a reunite people like their glass eye, prosthetic leg and moms ashes, when we come back. Experience breathtaking lexus performance in streetlegal form. Get great offers at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. Get up to 5,000 customer cash on select 2016 models. Ends september 5th. See your lexus dealer. Your Business Needs Better Technology to drive better performance. So you need it to be reliable and fast. Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings event. Fast Internet Speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. So what can you find in the lost and found . Our jane wells investigated. Shes live in l. A. With the answer. Cant wait for this one, jane. Well, sara, we always talk about the but pell changa is a huge casino in california, the gaming floor is actually larger that he many places in las vegas. Its operating at 100 capacity, in the middle of a 285 million expansion, which would include doubling the size and the staff of its lost and found. What . Ich shelf reps a day. Inside this room, they collect wet over 20,000 items a year, which they try to return. What kind of things . Quote if you can think it, weve seen it. Weve had glass eyes turned in, we get walkers. Karaoke machine, a hue filler. Things youre not sure what they are. Ive had the 9,000 ring that was left in the safe. Any alcohol we get we have to dump. Implts its not unusual to have four or five bikes. I actually found the remains of his mother is someones backpack. They had to call the coroner on that one. Other things left behind include lots of sex toys. The women do like the detective work in figuring out who these things belong to and the joy it brings to the people when theyre returned, like the family who got moms ashes back. Guys . Im glad they got them back, but it sounds like an expensive upkeep. The fact they have to tells yous lots of cell phones, a car key, and then sun glasses. How many have been lost . That says a lot. Jane wells, mike actually predicted the prosthetic leg. Ing. Jane, thank you. Over to john for now with whats coming up on squawk alley. I wonder if anybody has left a tiger in their room. They are pretty unique, also best buy doing better than expected. Does that mean its not just amazon in the hunt . And former twitter ceo will join us, all that hand more coming up on squawk alley. Rally mode, the s p 500 up four tens, thats good enough to flirt with a record high. Oil turned positive, were bouncing a bit. A lot of people talked about how calm the mark has been. But it seems like weve got a little energy. Best buy certainly on fire, some of those shorts being squeezed according to traders, also better that 12. 6 rise was also unexpected. This all leads us into the jan et yellen speech on friday. Though the bond mark just a tenyear yield, just behavely up. It starks it to move the bond market. Well see what happens. That does it for this hour. Over to you, carl. Thanks so much, guys. Were 8 00 a. M. At apple headquarters, 11 00 a. M. On wall street, and squawk alley is live. Welcome to squawk alley for a tuesday morning. Jon fortt is live in san francisco. Joining us inside. Com founder and ceo jason kalakanis. The nasdaq hitten another alltime intraday high. Really the story of this summers rally. I wonder what younk