Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20121126

Numbers look out as we kick off cybermonday. Which retailers crushed it and which ones were crushed . If you were keeping track, the dow added 421 points last week and bulls argue it could add even more if european leaders settle this dispute over greek aid. Well discuss the potential impact as they meet in brussels right now. A big day for analyst upgrades. Research in motion, facebook, yahoo well go over those and see why citi needs three analysts to initiate coverage of apple. Well begin with retail sales picture from this past weekend. 139 Million Consumers shopped during black friday weekend. Thats up from 132 million last year. Total spending up to 59. 1 billion to 54. 4 a year ago. Average Holiday Shopper spending 434 over the weekend. Sales on black friday fell 1. 8 from the same day a year ago setting the stage for today known as cybermonday. American shoppers will spend 1. 5 billion online today up from 1. 25 billion a year ago. The papers have it. Usa today retailers hail. Journal early sales pay off for now. Success . Yes. Unmitigated. I think that people dont understand. This country is a rich country. It always surprises us in spending. I was listening to someone on our network last week saying didnt we have we had growth in the country. We have growth every year. Thats not true. Weve not had tremendous household formation in this country. These numbers at the beginning of more household formation which has been in a cyclical and now turns out not secular decline because of housing. This is a housing is good number and i like it. We should point out of course all of the Different Services that track things show up. Not necessarily up year over year for friday because so many people now shopped on thursday. Not to mention really started on monday. You have shopper track survey indicating 3. 5 year over year increase in shoppers. 3. 8 million people. Year over year numbers were up 9 . That is inclusive of this entire period. You watch people storm the stores to buy stuff from china that will end up in a landfill. I know a lot of people who did this. A lot of them are my daughters friends. They regard it as event orientated. I dont know if you are familiar with the term, a rave. A rave. David knows raves. Trust me. Its a bit of a rave. I was shocked that you see people in their 20s who just thought this was a great event. So as people look to see which retailers did best, ubs is talking gap. I think gap is doing well. What i like about urban is inventories were perfect. Thats the thing. They had the right amount of inventory meaning going in they had a nice talk in the last few weeks going in saying this is going to be really good. You needed people who thought business is really good and had a online business. Well see great numbers from amazon. You mention the apple triple coverage. If there was one store and i know its antidotal because i only hit four of them, if there was one store you cannot get in, its an apple store. Maybe people have to explain mini versus the i tweeted a picture of my i had an apple macro in my back. I was lucky to get an apple mac. They had supply. This was the story. People spend a lot of time in the apple store. You kind of like the sales people. It gets more crowded perhaps. Doesnt move as quickly. Theres some metrics showing that microsoft basically blistered apple blistered microsoft in terms of sales and going head to head and that i think 10 or something of transactions based on an ipad originated on an ipad. It was a blockbuster weekend for apple. Heres a pie chart of the mobile break down. 88. 3 . Of the mobile. In terms of commerce done over a mobile device was done from an ipad. You were bombarded in football with kindle ads and with surface as. Both actually pretty cool. I guess i dont know. We had a billion or more on friday done over the internet on ecommerce. That struck me as low. Walmart does more than a billion every single day. I wonder how walmart did. I bet they did more than a billion. We were talking about the labor strife. It didnt seem like it hurt them at all. No. Not at all. I dont know that to be the case only antidotally and watching with my own eyes our coverage of it. Didnt appear to interfere with peoples ability to shop. They said best black friday ever. 5,000 transactions a minute or a second. I cant remember the exact metric. It didnt seem like the protests had marginal impact whatsoever. Unemployment going from 9 to 7 . Jobless claims not that good. You just try to relate the macro to the retail sales. It just doesnt compute. It shouldnt be as good as it is. If you go back and read the headlines a week ago, it wasnt supposed to be as good. This is the upside surprise. Also, theyre not holding back because of the fiscal cliff. Which still is beyond many people in america. Most of the people rushing the store may be aware of it in some way but they probably are not in the weeds on it. I would have liked to ask the 23 year olds, look, are you going to stop spending or cut back because of the fiscal cliff. Im out there enough already. I cant even go to that level of being out there. You cant . No, i cant. I cant. Im a fixture at every mall in the country. This mall of america there was a guy. Mike didnt work initially. You handled that so well. The mike didnt work initially for mall of america. I threw to him on friday. While youre shopping you still managed to watch us. Amazing. And miss you . It was just like you didnt skip a beat. Like you had actually been to a mall. You knew i had never been to a mall. I know you have been to a mall. What mall . Time Warner Center is that a mall . That counts as a mall. Ive been in there. Theres a j. Crew there. Yes. Yes, there is. I think whole foods also had a big week. I do shopping for the night before i head home. Its antidotal. Its antidotal. It was supposed to be bad. It wasnt bad. Thats my take away. I dont want to deviate from that. I saw an upgrade today. Restoration. All of these companies have come public in the last six months and people have forgotten about. I would love to hear how theyre doing. I bet theyre doing well. Talk about things that did well. Last week not a bad week for the markets. S p 500 extending its winning streak to five on friday the dow up 172 points in that trading shortened day. Posted the best black friday performance since 2008. Futures moving lower this morning. The focus shifting to negotiations over the fiscal cliff. Also european leaders meeting to try to strike a deal over aid for greece. Something theyve been trying to do now for many weeks. Unclear how much further along they are. Also a lot of chatter about whether the recent votes are indicative of a real desire to secede or not from spain. Europe. A year ago we were dealing with it every moment. 7. 5 yield. What a steal those bonds were. That is true. If you bought italian bonds a year ago, you are happy you did so. Consumer confidence today multiyear high in italy. Dont forget the europeans are doing well. Germany is back in that 22 , 23 , that we would kill for. I dont think europe is as big an issue anymore. I dont. I do think fiscal cliff momentum has stalled. You needed to have nonstop momentum on this issue. I just didnt get the sense of anything happening. We definitely flattened out today. You read some of what buffett is saying in the times and corker in the washington post. Theres no clear signal theyre moving actively toward each other these two sides. That said, if greece gets the payment, does the market not get a bounce here . I think the market bounces if we get a frame work on fiscal cliff i think we go to im going to use a term that youre going to say is hyperbole which is we take out the highs for the year. 3 from year . Not a bad fourth quarter. It will cause a lot of hedge funds who decided to lock in. They sold at 19 decline last year in september and october. They said well lock in 6 to 8 . That guy is going to lose the money in january. I want that money back. If he only did 6 to 8 . The december is the second best performing month for the dow after april. I think average gain of 1. 7 since 1950 which stock almanac had today. We want to know what taxes are going to be. There is a big one of the things i look at the charts every weekend. Im pathetic. I have them delivered to my door. Everything stops in the house. Utility stocks are horrendous. I think thats people saying, look, dividend is going to 39. 6 on your dividends will be a different story. Have you seen those charts . They are the worst. I get them delivered as well of course. Who doesnt . Saturday morning i like to get up and look at my charts. I think we have something in common. I feel better. Three Tech Companies known for their beaten down stocks are getting good news from the street today. Facebook upgraded to outperform over at bernstein. Cibc raising rimm and yahoo added to the conviction buy list at Goldman Sachs. Cnbc and yahoo have a Business Alliance to share and coproduce editorial content. My favorite is rimm. I love that. The blackberry 10 is locked in for january 30th. They say the carrier feedback will become more clear and a lack of new competing devices not sure on what planet theyre living, there are competing devices. You walk down the street and you get hit by one. I think people people rimm has momentum. The stock has doubled. I get that. Yahoo i think that mayer is putting together a compelling story behind the scenes of a major change but the one i want to focus on is facebook. The bernstein guy had a sell on it. Then he went to hold when the lockups expired and then he goes to a buy. Street cred facebook saying mobile is terrific. I think this is a good call. I think this stock is not done going up. Hes very specific. He sees them exceeding the consensus revenue estimates over the next 12 to 24 months by 9 . And then 7 higher in 2014. So hes really on. Hes got it down. Not only what consensus will be but what the beat will be. I know that thats the kind of thing like johnson when he was 29 through the turnaround but this guy, carlos, hes a ph. D. , hes been remarkable on it. When you have a hot hand on a controversial stock, people will do what he says. The stock is going to continue to be bought. How much behind these upgrades is move in stock prices . They dont want to be left behind . Look at rimm. The move on were going to have the analyst on later. 8 to 17. The move on friday was huge on it. Facebook has clearly made im not technically a bottom of some kind, right . Youre on the sidelines and youre an analyst and you want to get in. The facebook guy from bernstein is separate. I think apple a lot of analysts waited until it hit a level and bounced. Apple looked like a dead cat bounce so no offense to the feline population. It did get a bounce. Now we are starting to get people talking about it. An upgrade at citi. That stock feels like it has momentum. Theyre analysts. Thats all. And it may be good for a move here on all of these stocks. Some analysts are better than others. In fact that is the key. Downgrades that well talk about too later as well. As we said earlier, oracle of omaha talking about tackling the fiscal cliff and how to make millionaires and billionaires pay more in taxes. Well talk about that. And also, the winklevoss twins. One more look at futures as we kick off a full week here. Back in a minute. When you take a closer look. At the best schools in the world. You see they all have something very interesting in common. They have teachers. With a deeper knowledge of their subjects. As a result, their students achieve at a higher level. Lets develop more stars in education. Lets invest in our teachers. So they can inspire our students. Lets solve this. You cannot solve this problem without creating sacrifice and pain throughout the system. This is tough. The longer we wait the lesser menu of options well have and more draconian the decisions will be. That was senator corker on squawk this morning. A number of gop lawmakers say they will reject the notax pledge. Warren buffett taking a jab at norquist this morning in an oped in the times. He says lets forget about the rich and ultrarich going on strike and stuffing ample funds under their mattresses if Capital Gains are increased. Ultrarich will forever pursue investment opportunities. I thought that was right. I thought it was right. We always hear job creators. I started a lot of businesses. They never make any money at the beginning. I dont want a great line there. I dont want to be so successful i have to pay a lot of taxes. Thats stupid. Thats something from someone who never ran a business. The late George Mcgovern where he discovered how hard it was to be a businessman, you dont create a job. You create a job for tremendous success but you accept losses at the beginning. You never take an investment and say i dont want to do that because im afraid ill have to pay taxes. You just dont. Regulation sort of dealing with a lot of red tape which we also hear about as an impediment. Thats a big problem because you dont have the resources typically to be able to figure out who knows the red tape and youre not connected enough and the warrior fees are large and theres red tape that stopped me from doing things. Theres a difference between a entrepreneur with buffett type money and a guy thats a dentist is used as a common example. Not ultrarich for any means for whom tax rates on the margin may affect your willingness to expand. Hire another person. I think that until you know the lay of the land of what youre going to have to pay people, expansion is its very easy to hold things if youre not well capitalized. The not well capitalized person is afraid of obama care because headlines have been not they are afraid of what the Health Care Bill will look like. What is my Health Care Going to look like next year. I dont know. What is my employees Health Care Going to look like . I dont know. They will wait to hire. Well capitalized people say ill make ten investments. A couple home runs. You hope. A lot of business have failed and its painful. Taxes are not top of mind. Theyre not top of mind. Always been my experience at least in talking to those people. Its a washington thing to talk about that. I just dont think they start a lot of businesses. Governor norquist was in my class at college. Governor norquist stands for you can argue longer term hes just a complete libertarian who wants the government to be nil. He doesnt want a government. Thats libertarian. Not a republican for heaven sake. Not a traditional republican. Lincoln who came up with the idea of having higher rates for richer people because he said they benefit from the country. He seems like just a radical. Like my great, great, great uncle lennon. Some equate the original income tax with marks. Cramer has big ideas to help you get off to a fast start this week. His mad dash is next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. Governor of getting it done. You know how to dance. With a deadline. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. This is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. Yes, it is. Go national. Go like a pro. A few minutes before the bell on a monday. Time for cramers mad dash. Talking about downgrades. Farm equipment this deere Conference Call once again they have snatched the jaws of victory here. Farmers are richer than theyve ever been. This company failed to deliver. I understand why ubs downgraded. Trading down to 82. It was up here before. I think this company is so inconsistent. How can a company thats one of the worlds greatest manufacturers not make enough money. Ubs says its the developed markets that are weak. North america and any upside based on less certain markets. There is always a market that does badly with these guys. They guide long. Conference call is the worst broadway show imaginable. That thing just never gets to new haven in new york. They are just they got to get they should hire actors for heaven sake. Well talk the heinz downgrade after a break. 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[ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 glk350 for 399 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. He loves risk. But whether hes climbing everest, scuba diving the Great Barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesnt nickel and dime him with hidden fees. So he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense, from Td Ameritrade. Youre watching squawk on the street live from the Financial Capital of the world. Opening bell set to ring in just over a minutes time. We didnt have time before the break to talk about a downgrade of heinz. Cutting it to a hold. On valuation. They say our view of the company fundamentally has not changed at all. This company is well run. Doing all of the right things. Keeps closing little divisions that dont work. I think its a bad call. I think a lot of people want to make valuation calls and dont realize stocks are cheaper. I want to buy heinz on the do downgrade. People will read the New York Times business section today as mike lynch from autonomy continues to speak out. Hes made a decision that his lawyers would strenuously disagree with, which is to talk publicly and dispute what we heard from Hewlett Packard a week ago namely that there were significant accounting improprieties in the company he once ran. Saying strong things in opposition. I couldnt help having been i know the profession. The first thing they tell you is never go on tv, ever. Never go on tv. Everything you say can and will be used against you. Martha stewart went on tv and said the jcpenney deal will be fabulous. Before that she said the macys deal was great. She goes to court and says i didnt like macys and all they do is bring up the cnbc interview. She loses. When the accounting at autonomy is being investigated by the s. E. C. , by the Serious Fraud office and the u. K. , you would think the former ceo of the company would not speak. He clearly feels very passionate that they did nothing wrong. Time will tell. Whats nice about this story is were going to get at the end of the day, they are the arbiter. Well see. If they bring a case, well know the answer. Here at the big board, the archbishop of new york here for the annual breakfast for wall Street Division of the cardinals committee to charity. At the nasdaq, blue nile celebrating cybermonday and well talk to the ceo in the next hour. Every kiss begins with blue nile. Is that true . No. Just get tired of those commercials after a while. Get ready for more commercials as we get into the Holiday Season. Fifth avenue the morning after thanksgiving, the lights are everywhere. I dont know how they flip it so quickly. Its incredible. They just go for it. America again, just people are spending. Theyre spending. We talked upgrades. A big day for analysts research. Price target goes from 105 to 111. Antifiscal cliff. We believe the sequester will not happen. F35. I just find that there are people who want to whistle past this one and yet i still think the sides dont have control of their caucuses. I think that the leaders once again are struggling with the idea of getting everyone in line. Were not there yet. I see a lot of pop offs. People cant resist. Go over the cliff. Its good. Wow. It aint good. It isnt good. Closer to september and january. Im good at keeping track of calendars. Its one of my strong points. 30 days past september. April, june and november. What months are no good . I didnt know that lyric. Lets assume that we get towards christmas. Its december 24th. The day before christmas. We still have no deal. When you get a lot of conversation, we are going to do something that at least all right. We push it down. Were going to revisit this come the new year. Come the new congress. I think were okay. You think were okay . I do. Okay. I think were okay. One thing we have not had time to talk about is citi action at apple. Using three analysts. One to cover semis. One with software, hardware. Reflects apples broad impact to supply chain. Allows us to follow the company from several angles. I heard 675 as target. Not sure if thats right. Upswing coming. Steve is an old friend of mine. Good time to add position. Valuation low. Earnings momentum. How many citigroup analysts does it take to change thats a different piece of research. I do believe that apple is that sweet spot where people are saying that selloff finished and maybe all of the big selling is done. I dont know how far i can go. I just think that in the end they did miss two quarters. They have to make this quarter. I dont know. They have to make it. If it were a man, you say hes not the same man as he was before . Apple. If the stock were a person . More of an Aaron Rodgers than eli manning. Thats not good in light of last night. Only as good as your last game. Manning didnt look that great. Listen, eagles play the carolina panthers. Do you want me to could you lend me eli tonight . Who is the starting quarterback for the eagles . Thats what theyre trying to figure out themselves. This is far field. Maybe theyll take smith over there. I want to point out the bond insurer. Not that large of market cap. It should be up. Important development today. Bank of america you may recall this is very complex i know. They were trying to basically buy up a lot of bonds if you recall. Its failed. And so its successful in they havent been able to change dentures. Remove responsibility there would be a default event on a lot of the things they were insuring. It would lead to a default of the Holding Company and now you see why that stock is up. A big win for mbia in that war with bank of america. More on that later. Lets go over stocks in the dow in the last couple years that have done poorly. Alcoa. Hewlett packard. Bank of america. Its done nothing. Its done absolutely nothing. Even when all of the banks had a resurgence, they gave that up and a lot is endless lawsuits that they tell you they have it together. A tremendous number of lawsuits involved in the banking business. These bills are actually adding up. Its actually hitting the bottom line. It is. After a few billion you are talking real money. We talk a lot last week about the autonomy acquisition for hp and how terrible it was but nothing will compare to what countrywide did to that company, to bank of america. All of these Little Things that might have been great in order to be able to just deal with what happened. Liabilities they took on. Incredible. They are dealing with it. Investors believe they have moved through it to a large extent. The stock is up from 5. 6 where Warren Buffett got involved. If you are a Traditional Bank making mortgages, youre doing okay. I look at this bank thats been on a total ntb. Its been on a total tear. We have banks that have been doing incredibly well. Why . Because they didnt screw up. Did want to bring up mcgraw hill. Remember the company had been splitting itself up. Has succeeded. This has been reported as a strong possibility the sale of its education business to apollo. 2. 5 billion is the price tag. Subject to certain closing adjustments. Also will get 250 million in Senior Unsecured Notes issued by the purchaser, that being apollo. Theyll pay 8. 8 on those notes. Expect to close in late 2012 or early 2013. Mcgrawhill. They separated it out. They split the company so mcgrawhill is a purer play on s p. A remarkable transformation. They took the gutsy move of getting rid of business week which was flagship for them. This is one of those where the breakup has been fabulous and its still a buy. They say they falling prey to the vanity play that magazine was. They say they were doing these things prior to the hedge fund that got involved in the shares. Whoever actually did it, the fact is they have moved to split the company. Its been a very smart move. Meantime, Mary Thompson is on the floor with more on whats moving today. As expected coming into todays session of course after the markets closed out their best week in about five months some traders said who were looking overbought so weakness here at the opening. Dow jones industrial average now down about 85 points taking out a chunk of that, 170point plus gain that we saw in the holiday shortened or in the shortened trading session on friday. Of course a couple positives include the early start to the retail sales figure. A billion dollars in online sales. Thats a positive. Also total sales for the fourday weekend up about 13 from last year. All of that is a good thing. However, investors are keeping an eye on greece. That is the focus. Some traders say they expect that the deal is already baked into the market given the rally that we saw last week. Also, one thing that is a concern to traders. They say a lack of news on any talk about the fiscal cliff, that could keep some pressure on stocks today. Now, a couple things that were also watching and traders were talking about earlier today the sevenmonth high. This is japanese yen at a sevenmonth low. A couple things contributing to that rally. Expectations there will be a shift in the monitoring policy possibly more aggressive in following the elections in december and also of course the lower yen, weaker yen, expected to drive exports in that country. Ethan allen, the Third Company to declare a special dividend and accelerate the payment of its january dividend into the month of december to avoid higher taxes and then we also want to touch on United Health care. The dow component issuing a warning on earnings for 2013 saying they will be below expectations at 5. 25 to 5. 50 a share. We do want to know that it is forecasting revenue for next year should be above expectations between 123 to 124 billion. The dow is off 86 points. A broad based decline early on. Only bright spot i see right now is a slight gain in utilities. Back to you. Well check out latest news at energy and metals and go to Sharon Epperson at the nimax. Many commodities on friday had the best performance in a month and we see a subdued marketplace and a pullback across the board here. Were looking at oil prices that are lower. The truce is holding between israel and hamas and thats something thats perhaps putting some pressure on prices. The Ceasefire Holding and the fact that we are looking at some weakness here in the euro and traders continue to eye what is happening there in the eurozone over the greek debt deal. Were also watching of course the protest that erupted over a threeday period in egypt and that could lend some support to the oil price Going Forward. We are watching Metals Market which is somewhat lower here. Gold prices after the significant rally on friday seem to be in this range between 17. 46 and 17. 55. Were looking at copper prices and theres a lot ahead for this market to watch namely whats happening in china and pmi data coming out later in the week. The big story in commodities definitely the slide that were seeing in natural gas down about 4 . Warmer temperatures ahead for the month of december. That is whats pressuring the nat gas market. Back to you, david. Now i want to resist a story we brought to you on friday and it continues. Not that much has changed. It is still an interesting one getting a lot more play in the general media as well. Thats the showdown between paul singer, the man who runs elliott associates, and argentina to put it mildly. Theres mr. Singer. Argentina led by its president who has said no way are we paying you the 1. 3 billion in interest that a new york judge said we have to pay you by december 15th. Not a chance. Not going to happen. And where do we go from here . By the way, it leads the payment agent bank of morning in a strange position there. Questions there. Will an appellate judge stand in the way or is argentina going to be in a position where it actually could be in technical default if it does not make this payment putting in jeopardy payments as well to those who agreed to a significant restructuring of bonds many years ago under which they got about 30 cents on the dollar. You can see argentineans fiveyear cds, is that enough to make money there if he doesnt get paid . Thats a question thats unclear. Not enough for that market to get long enough with that. You can see they have moved up dramatically. This has been a very poor play for many hedge funds that own argentinean sovereign paper. They dont issue new sovereign bonds. They fund themselves in other ways. Perhaps not that important for them. They say to heck with it we wont make the payment. Put us in technical default if you want. A very interesting showdown that is worth drawing our viewers attention to. If it should come to it, well have market ramifications beyond just argentina. Even when you get to debt exchanges such as what occurred with greece if this is the case and there can be case law said that you have to pay interest to those who didnt exchange, it may make those kind of exchanges far more difficult. I listened to your breaking story on friday. I said i dont understand the jurisdiction. How does a federal court tell argentina what to do . I think it also comes back to the payment bank of new york as the third party transferrer of funds from argentinean government forcing them to its a good question. I cant say that i can absolutely answer it definitively for you. Could the federal court order the deposition of the head of iraq . Lets get him in here. Lets depose him. Theres some standing questions there. No question about that. I just find that argentina may be argentina is doing a lot of things behind the scenes with tariffs and very tough on American Business people. Are they going to say a federal court judge, theyre going to hold us in contempt . What does he got . How many divisions does the federal court judge have . They can force the payment and if not, they can be in technical default. You havent made a payment that was ordered of you. Ordered by who . By some guy . By a judge in the u. S. Lets go to the hague. Im appealing to the world court. They may appeal to the Supreme Court right here in the good old United States. Lets see where that goes. I think argentina is a big country and if they want to, they can say, hey, nice to meet you. They can. Right. If they want to get back into the Capital Markets to borrow money which is unclear if they want to at this point. What did you say on friday . They also have the money. They can make the payment. Its not as though they are distressed. You said theyre not even borrowing. Theyre not. Thats why i listen to your report. You did listen. Im glad you did. Its amazing that 12 years after that default were still talking about some of the ripple effects thats going back a ways. I thought it was an amazing story. We go back to the old citi saying countries dont go broke. Remember shipley. Tallest man in the world. Good guy. A lot of good bankers. Lets bring up old bankers. Remember bob smith. He was great. Lewis guy not so good. Lots of buzz about the blackberry bounce. Well meet the analyst from north of the border whose call on research in motion sent stock soaring by 14 on friday and ceo of blue nile. How does the Online Jewelry retailer plan to outshine its brick and mortar counterparts. 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Tdd 18003452550 call 18776861922 tdd 18003452550 and a global specialist tdd 18003452550 will help you get started today. Can i still ship a gift in time for christmas . Yeah, sure you can. Great. Wheres your gift . Uh. Whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. Ship Fedex Express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. A few components hanging onto green. Overall its a red kind of day as we give back some of what we gained last week. Sales of movie tickets over the fiveday thanksgiving period which started wednesday hit a record total 290 million. The twilight saga winning the Weekend Box Office again. Breaking down part 2 taking in 65 million. Couldnt get in. Sold out. Lincoln finished third. This morning the journal takes a crack saying that without twilight material in the future, you may not want to get too near the stock. Stock tends to do trade on hits. Thats always the way it used to be with universal. I always hated stocks that would hit trade. They would take profits. A good run. Hunger games isnt that another one . Yep. Meantime, the former Hedge Fund Manager at the center of what federal prosecutors are calling the most lucrative Insider Trading scheme ever is heading to court this morning. Well get a live report coming up. But first coming up, have you started your Holiday Shopping yet . Cramer will be sharing his list with you starting with six stocks in 60 seconds when squawk on the street returns. [ female announcer ] today, its not just about who lives in the white house, its about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. Today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. Because today its about all of us. And no matter who you are, youre the commanderinchief of your own life. Youre a mean one mr. Grinch you really are a heel youre as cuddly as a cactus simon is rested and ready. Welcome back. Good to be back. Theres a big smackdown from Morgan Stanley on research in motion. Were going to talk to the analyst that sparked fridays big surge in rimm. Thats to come in the next hour of squawk on the street. Were going to look at whether the growth in Online Shopping is slowing down with a real Industry Insider and also the ceo of blue nile will be on the program ringing the nasdaq bell. From my notes it says hes giving away diamonds for free on facebook but i must have got that wrong. Back to you. Need to pin that down. Lets get six in 60. Six stocks in 60 seconds give or take a few. E exelon is a big mover. Utilities are trying to bottom. Zillow equal weight at Morgan Stanley. You had them on air. They missed the First Quarter out of the chute. That makes it difficult. Mcdonalds is cut. Acting well on friday. I thought someone would take a swipe at it. Sandisk. I say trading stock keep me away from it. We were talking about the upgrades of troubled names. Rbc on nokia. A target increase. This is what david was talking about. Lets do bottom fishing Like Research in motion. All right. More on those names to cnbc. Com. Whats coming up tonight . I have vernon hill on. He built commerce back. The Great Service bank. He flipped it and made a fortune right before the collapse of banks. Hes doing the same thing in london. I invited him over because he just had the model. He believes in customers. He believes in helping the little guy. A couple minutes to talk about markets. Adam parker. We talked about him during the break. Morgan stanley. Used to him being a bear. Exactly right. U. S. Equity strategy 2013 playbook. Ad adam, i appreciate this. Upgraded industrials to overweight. This is a bullish call and i think that one of the things you have to recognize is that this guy has been good and three themes. He thinks china is good. Yield. Megacap quality. I want him on the show. This is we should have him on. I like the way hes willing to be flexible. An evolution in his thinking. I hear youre being positive about household formation and retail. On the other hand, you are still clearly negative about whats going on in washington. On balance going into year end . I still think a deal is huge. Kick the can down the road is okay. And no deal and were going to have to roll back a lot of what we saw last week. Finally, even though youre watching charts on the weekend, its not the only thing you do during the weekend. We have a picture of you at your inn showing people to your favorite room. Number 7 is one of the greats. Its not the bridal suite. I gave everybody breakfast. I dont lift your bags because i havent been tipped. Thats a gorgeous room number seven. Gorgeous room. Love it. If you dont follow on twitter, you dont see this stuff. Well see you tomorrow. Good to see you. Thank you. The eyebrow raising nature of this mornings tech upgrades. Should you curb your enthusiasm in and the winklevoss twins come to post 9. Keep it here. [ engine revs ] [ male announcer ] the mercedesbenz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle thats just right for you, no matter which list youre on. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 c250 for 349 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. To a currency market for everyone. The potential of fxcm unlocked. Nyse euronext. Unlocking the worlds potential. The potential of yelp unlocked. Nyse euronext. Unlocking the worlds potential. But when i was in an accident. I was worried the Health Care System spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. So i never missed a beat. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Hope the Holiday Weekend was great. We kick off a new week. Black friday has come and gone and now its onto cybermonday. We open up the retail trade with winners and losers now that the official Holiday Shopping weekend is in the books. Mathew martoma is due in court for his securities fraud. What does it mean for sac and steven cohen forward . The judge who presided over another trial will join us live. We have analysts who sent shares surging 14 on friday on rimm. Blue nile ceo. How does the online retailer beat out brick and mortar retailers in the few weeks until christmas. First official weekend of Holiday Shopping has come and gone. Courtney reagan is sorting through the facts as we have them. Good morning. Its really not over yet. 139 Million Consumers shopped this morning spending 13 more. Thats 59 billion. 40 of it was done online. On this cybermonday more than 129 million are expected to shop up 6 from last year. Nrf says Department Stores were the number one destination for shoppers online as that line between black friday weekend and cybermonday continues to blur with nearly half of Consumer Shopping online on black friday. Retailers have held back products and are offering promotional pricing to grab just a couple more dollars before consumers close up their wallets for the usual spending lull that follows the first big weekend. The hottest retailer on Google Search this Holiday Weekend, walmart. Ibm measures online sales higher by 18 on thanksgiving day compared to last year and up nearly 21 on black friday. Black friday saw more than a billion dollars in online sales. That happened for the first time on that day up 26 from last year and marks the heaviest spending day so far this year. 1. 5 billion will be spend online by shoppers today. Adobe forecasting 2 billion in online sales. The top five google shopping queries including laptop, nexus 7, tv, and two new products spiked in Google Searches over the last 24 hours. Cybermonday deals is the number one hot search query with more than 1 million searches and its only 10 00 a. M. On the east coast. Thank you so much for that. A busy weekend for you. Courtney reagan back at headquarters. Former Hedge Fund Portfolio manager Mathew Martoma is due in court on charges of conspiracy to commit securities fraud. Bertha coombs is live outside of the courtroom here in new york. Reporter that hearing set to begin any minute as you say. They will look at issues of setting bail in the case. 38yearold Mathew Martoma, former Portfolio Manager for a unit of s. A. C. Capital facing Insider Trading charges according to the complaint he engaged a key researchers in an Alzheimer Drug trial back in 2008. Allegedly that researcher told him about the good news in the trial which sent the stock higher and they were able to take a long position. What was key was in july of 2008 when you look at that chart of elan ahead of bad news announced publicly on july 29, the complaint allegation that mr. Martoma got the bad news from the researcher and was able to short the stock and that yielded a massive payday in terms of avoiding losses as well. Now steven a. Cohen not named in the complaint. The complaint says the owner of the hedge fund, which would be cohen, the head of s. A. C. Capital, was aware of some of these trades and there are emails that may have changed hands. Martoma is the fifth s. A. C. Capital related employee to be charged in this long ranging Insider Trading probe thats now netted 70 arrests including the conviction of the former analyst from s. A. C. Again, steven cohen is not named in this complaint but this case does certainly put the issue much more closely tied to the hedge fund titan. Well go inside and see what comes on and well be back with details when its over. Back to you, carl. Thanks very much, bertha. Want to take a closer look at what this could mean for Mathew Martoma. Stephen cohen and s. A. C. Capital. Joining us now is a judge that presided over the trial of the highest profile trial when it comes to Insider Trading. Judge, you know, not my reporting but those and others indicate that feds have been trying to get mr. Martoma on their side for some time prior to actually charging him. Perhaps to use his testimony to pursue mr. Cohen. Does his thinking change at all or is your expectation based on your own experience that he will stick to not cooperating . Well, i think the dye isnt cast in that respect yet. The government here did not proceed by an indictment which comes from a grand jury. They had the option to first bring down a criminal complaint which is what they have done. Its a technique which can be used to place additional pressure on a defendant by laying out the specifics of the allegations to try to persuade in this case mr. Martoma and his counsel that given the evidence that the government possesses it would be in their interest to cooperate. That assumes, of course, that mr. Martoma has something to cooperate with and we dont know that. Right. Give us some sense here as to how well proceed from here. Todays hearing, how long do you think it will be until we get to a trial . I think a trial will happen within a year. A criminal complaint doesnt start the clock for the speedy trial act. Thats another one of the differences. Until the indictment is brought down, the time period is going to be elastic which would give the government two options here. One, to develop more information in front of a grand jury if they think they havent made their case completely and, two, to attempt to open or reopen negotiations with mr. Martomas counsel. A lot of attention being paid to a 20minute phone conversation detailed in the complaint that we believe took place between mr. Martoma and ste steven cohen. Is it your expectation that the government has more evidence not muff to charge mr. Cohen but circumstantial evidence that it might present if it were to continue to pursue or pursue mr. Cohen . They will have more circumstantial evidence that we havent seen yet. How persuasive it is remains to be seen. Frequently an Insider Trading case the government will put together a sorry to interrupt you. Thats our first opportunity to see mr. Martoma who has been living in florida of course as we know as he enters the court. Continue, judge. The government will put together matching phone calls to particular trades and also look at speed of which trades take place and when they take place that will be part of the circumstantial evidence that will be used to ask the jury to infer that the defendant, mr. Martoma, and others were acting with criminal intent. We had you on to talk about the gupta trial and now this one. Well come back time and time again. Is the hurdle for either side significantly higher or lower than in the case like gupta . In this case, in mr. Mart yo appear there are any recordings. It will be a different play. Just finally, judge, what is now the landscape of federal investigations into the Financial Services industry . What does this case tell us about where we are now . Well, it underscores how broad the investigation is and some indication of how broad the problem might be. Its a whole different sphere, if you will, its no longer the related activities as broad as they might have been. Were now in the midst of another independent and quite Large Hedge Fund and well have to wait and see as to whether or not the allegations are as broad as they were. All right, judge. Well leave it there. As always, appreciate your insight. The dow is down 70 points. Tech is seeing a lot of interest today. Lets get to Michelle Carusocabrera for a market flash. Shares of yahoo are trading at levels we havent seen in two years after Goldman Sachs put them on the conviction buy list. Goldman sachs likes the aggressiveness of Share Repurchase plan. A lot of money because of Capital Allocation is good for the stock. They think the business is getting better. There you see it higher by nearly 2 . 18. 94. The target for Goldman Sachs, 24. Back to you. All right. Thanks very much, michelle. Does the looming fiscal cliff and discussions over the next round of greek aid, have the rally in jeopardy . What do diamonds and cybermonday have in common . Well find out when the ceo of blue nile joins us live. Use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with indepth analysis. Its an allyoucaneat buffet for all things trading. Thinkorswim by Td Ameritrade. It doesnt just deliver news. Its making news. Trade Commission Free for 60 days, plus get up to 600 when you open an account. Olaf gets great rewards for his Small Business pizza [ garth ] olafs Small Business earns 2 cash back on every purchase, every day helium delivery. Put it on my spark card [ pop ] [ garth ] why settle for less . Great businesses deserve great rewards awesome [ male announcer ] the spark Business Card from capital one. Choose unlimited rewards with 2 cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day whats in your wallet . car horn paying with your smartphone instead of cash. phone rings thats a step forward. With chase quickpay, you can send money directly to anyones checking account. I guess hes a kicker. Again, again oh, no you dont take a step forward and chase what matters. We want to quickly point out the move in shares of facebook today up over 7 after shares were upgraded to outperform earlier today and also the price target was upped. Is this a trade or is this an investment . The answer is . We dont know. Thats a rhetorical question. Markets are having a tough time holding onto fridays gains. Dow, s p, nasdaq all down this morning. Where will the market go from here . Steven wood joins us at post 9. Welcome back. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. You think you have blown past not blown past, gotten past some key resistance levels and next day you are testing them once again. You have a lot of destabilizing political news. You have senator durbin talking about hangups in the United States. You have the vote over in barcelona. Theres a lot of selfinflicted political wounds the market is trying to price in. Volatility will be a function of this political instability for at least a handful of weeks going into the First Quarter of 2013. What was last week about . 400 points. Great day on friday albeit shortened session, light volume. Was that real . Was it fake . What was your impression . A mismatch between fundame fundamenta fundamentals. You saw Economic News out of the United States. Corporate news wasnt bad. You saw news out of china which was improving. Global growth story is okay. Its far from great. Its okay. You have europe in recession. Germany continues to chug along at an okay level. On a mixed data environment when you get excesses of pricing, you get bouncebacks as well. Given uncertainty over tax, would you be as inclined to be aggressive in what is a good month or preserve gains for the year . It depends on what they are trying to accomplish. Depends on what the longterm goal is. You look here further on out, if you are a person that is tax sensitive, that would be a consideration. For a lot of people, theyll need to have capital work for extended periods of time. Longterm discipline. It has to be a multiasset strategy because ultimately you need to hit 2. 5 on inflation and whatever your bogey is and thats inconsistent with overpaying for peace of mind. Its expensive. Dont overplay that. A nice piece this morning saying that uncertainties that we have at the moment which you say are large at the beginning have been with us for some time and believes are more annoyances opposed to obstacles of fear and if we get resolution which most people think were going to do because people are not stupid, you could actually have what he describes as an explosive rally. I like that analysis. And theres two ways to look at it. One is shortterm environment denoted by volatility given the political obstacles. I think the answer to that is likely yes. But longer term small pieces of resolution, most likely to happen is kick the can down the road. Buy themselves time for a longer term stable solution and if they sequence that shortterm, medium term revenue and longer term commitment to spending and entitlement cuts, market will like that. Its not a bad analysis. Shorter term theres volatility. There arent the big black clouds. I appreciate the fiscal cliff is a major concern. I appreciate that. If you look at the analysis do we have big black clouds over investors in an environment where you have to take the risk in order to get the reward . Thats an excellent point. Thats a wonderful point. Longer term you are looking at the United States economy doing better than not bad. It will grind along. Were not calling it for a double dip recession in 2013. We think fiscal cliff will be resolved in large part. Creating opportunity if you have done your homework and you have longterm discipline, use vo volatility to your advantage. Great cash position. Europe has good companies. China will stimulate. Not like in 2009 but it will be there. I think the death of equities and u. S. Market is greatly exaggerated. You do have to do your homework because shortterm volatility will give you opportunities and challenges. After what we hear this weekend, does it make sense to focus on discretionary going into year end . It does. It has coming into the third and fourth quarter. Again, pick your battles. Understand what youre getting into. Name specific analysis is critical. Build that portfolio. Look globally. Its more than just a u. S. Story. Looking into europe, emerging markets if you have a longer term time horizon. Commodities. All of these things are going to be part of it and nickel and dime your nay. We dont swing for the fences. Good stuff. Thanks very much. Next on the program, research in motion, the target of bullish calls over the last couple trading sessions. Were going to talk about the launch of black berttblackberry. Winklevoss will drop by and talk about why they invested 750,000 into one specific deal. [ male announcer ] this december, remember you can stay in and like something. [ car alarm deactivates ]. Or you can get out there with your family and actually like something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. This is the pursuit of perfection. Is what drives us to broadcast the worlds biggest events in 3d, or live to your seat high above the atlantic ocean. Its what drives us to create ecofriendly race tracks, batteries that power tomorrows cars, nearly indestructible laptops, and the sustainable smart towns of the future. At panasonic, were driven to make what matters most better. Just another way were engineering a better world for you. To investing with knowledge. The potential of Td Ameritrade unlocked. Nyse euronext. Unlocking the worlds potential. To a world of superconnected intelligence. The potential of freescale unlocked. Nyse euronext. Unlocking the worlds potential. [ male announcer ] tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. Enjoy Free Shipping and great values on your Holiday Shopping from l. L. Bean. Look this isnt my first christmas. These deals all seem great at the time. But later, not so much. This isnt that kind of deal. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. Save on ground shipping at fedex office. If you are looking to make this holiday an icy one, diamond maker blue nile thinks it has good deals for you. They expect the company to be the biggest yet in terms of sales. Recently you rang the opening bell at the nasdaq. Good morning to you. Good morning, simon. Great to be here on cybermonday and talk about the values. Good to have you here. You said on the Conference Call at the beginning of the month this would be a crucial time for you to acquire new customers at blue nile. You are giving away 100,000 worth of diamonds to facebook users. Whats happening there . We have the extraordinary days of the christmas season. 12 days of extraordinary gifts. If you are a facebook man on blue nile, you can register each and every day for a gift and everyone that registers will actually win an opportunity to have a great value but 12 great winners will have an incredible grand prize. Whats most exciting is an offer of a 13,000 grand prize of an Engagement Ring and two bands. 40 discounts on stud earrings. It is Engagement Rings in the United States which is the bulk of the business. Whats happening with margins on that at the moment . Its 60 , isnt it . Its about 70 on annual basis. Whats exciting is in q3 we announced our results with a 31 growth rate in engagement settings. We invested in diamonds part of our business and Marketing Strategy and those investments are continuing to pay off. 22 growth rate on top of our 31 growth rate in diamond and engagements. Just want to interrupt quickly. Are we talking about what we see at the bottom of your screen with the New York Times reporting that mary shapiro will step down as heads of the securities and exchange commission. Not a total surprise. Widely expected she would leave as the white house sort of reorganizes leadership in the administration. Well Start Talking more on the days ahead about who may replace her. More on that in a moment. Lets continue our interview with blue nile ceo. Harvey, you are trying to get the company back on its feet. You parachuted in to bring the company to better health. Is it a total focus on the Value Proposition and at what point do you think you might get the stock above the 60 a share we had a couple years ago . We dont really concentrate as you might imagine on stock price. What were concentrating on is building our business. Weve had three sequential growth quarters and accelerating sales growth which was on top of 11 growth rate from 2011. We really are getting a nice trajectory back to our business and excited about 13. What about the competition . Theres no retail outlets. Theres no feel good displays. No one talking to you nicely about why this would suit your girlfriend. Someone else can come in and do what you do. Weve an efficient effective model for 13 years. A lot of people have tried to emulate blue niles success, no one has been able to touch us. 150,000 diamonds that we have on our site is 20 to 40 price differential between traditional brick and Mortar Stores and what we bring to market helps to reunite our Business Success and grow and the line launch exclusively at blue nile has pushed our trajectory. Glad you got that in. Good luck. Great talking to you. Thanks so much. Have a great holiday. As we pointed out, mary shapiro is expected to step down as head of the s. E. C. Eamon javers has more on what to expect. This was telegraphed a bit. We expected that mary shapiro would leave at some point this year. We could ramp up the speculation on who might succeed mary shapiro at the s. E. C. A couple names are out there. Mary miller from Treasury Department is one that people have talked about a little bit. I have sources who wave us away from that name. Also the New York Times reporting today that a former Top Executive at citigroup and ban bank of america may be in the running and enforcement chief at the s. E. C. Is a name floating out there as well. A couple names floating out there. No obvious choice right away to go to over at the s. E. C. And obviously with all of the Insider Trading investigations that have been going on, big, big news in recent days, whoever is selected who head the s. E. C. Is going to have a big impact on wall street, carl. All right. People will Start Talking about her legacy as well as we talk more about a successor in the weeks to come. Thanks so much. Still ahead, the winklevoss twins are stopping by post 9. Find out why they are investing in an Online Shopping service and next up, close and personal with email marketing on cybermonday. Ceo of exact target tells us how his Company Stands to reap the benefits of todays Online Shopping surge. So anyway, ive been to a lot of places. You know, ive helped alot of people save a lot of money. But today. sfx loud noise of metal object hitting the ground things have been a little strange. sfx sound of piano smashing roadrunner meep meep. Meep meep . sfx loud thud sound awhat strange place. Geico®. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Dow is down 71. An hour into trading. Here are the stories were squawking about at 10 30 on the east coast. Shares of mcgrawhill are up today after agreeing to sell its publishing unit to apollo. Expedia hitting alltime highs. Shares of the travel website have more than doubled so far this year. And the vix is up rising above not so scary 15 level. After a hard fought black friday, retailers are trying to compete for your dollars with cybermonday deals. Here to help us break down the trend is chairman and ceo of exact target. Good morning. Good morning, carl. Thanks for having me on the program. Walk me through the metrics you can give me that are working now that were knee deep into cybermonday day. Exact target is a leader in helping organizations communicate with their customers through Digital Channels they use most like email, mobile, social Networks Like facebook and twitter and the web. We have seen record breaking transactional levels across all Digital Channels so ive spoken to a number of our clients and cmos over the weekend and are delighted with Digital Marketing programs and we expect today to be our largest transactional volume in company history. Do we have sense as to what percentage of transactions originate from a facebook or a twitter . Ive seen a couple numbers out this morning. One is citing a report out of ibm showing theyre not all that substantial. We look at the same data across all channels. One study of note is that forrester estimates that onethird of all ecommerce transitions are initiated by a click within an email. Email is the workhorse of interactive marketing. That explains all of the emails ive been getting over the past several hours. Thats right. Marketers who are really having success are using a mix of all channels. Its using email, mobile and social in conjunction with one another to leverage data about their consumers and make sure the communications are highly personalized and very relevant. How about facebook . Is it working or not . Sure, absolutely. Facebook continues to be very important social network and an important channel for our digital marketers to engage with consumers. Our strategy at exact target has been to build technology that help marketers leverage each individual channel but most importantly take advantage of our suite that pulls channels together to deliver the right message to the right person at the right time through the right digital channel. Im not hearing too many specifics on facebook which i imagine well let that go. Is mobile changing the game. I have seen statistics that show that the ipad in terms of mobile is just rolling over everybody else. Mobile has been extraordinary. Weve seen a tremendous increase in mobile connectivity from thursday through this morning on a couple different levels. The messaging component of mobile with sms getting more popular but hyperconnected consumer is creating great opportunities for marketers to send Realtime Communications and know that consumers are ready to receive and consume and ultimately take action on those communications. Theres been some looking at the breakdown of the weekend saying it was strong but that if youre a skeptic on retail, youre a skeptic on Holiday Spending saying that it is dragging a lot of sales forward. What are marketers going to be doing over the next few weeks to make sure that this momentum they built over the black friday weekend doesnt get lost . Thats an important point. Were finding at a macro Level Marketing budgets are shifting from offline to online channels. Forrester estimates that 26 of all advertising spent in 2016 will be on interactive channels. These are important investments. Most importantly is the longterm relationship. Were finding the best digital marketers are driving a lot of commerce over the weekend and certainly today on cybermonday but they are using these transactions as an opportunity to build longterm relationships so they can communicate in a relevant way around the calendar year. Given everything we know thats going on in tech right now, what is the most Important Development year over year . Why is this holiday from a mobile standpoint from a digital standpoint, how is it most different from what happened a year ago . Its really all about connectivity. Mobile devices have created an opportunity for brands to connect with consumers in ways they never have seen before. And its effective. The return on investment in interactive and measured marketing is very, very high. It all comes back to Cloud Based Solutions and marketers leveraging big data. There are tools available like exact target platform that help organizations better understand their customers and then use those insights to send highly personalized relevant communication. Its great for the consumer and very good for the digital marketer. All right. Thanks so much for your time. Thanks so much. Scott dorsey joining us. Ceo of exact target. Let me take you live to london where the u. K. Finance minister has just made a huge announcement. The next head of the bank of england in the United Kingdom will be the bank of Canada Governor mark carney. This is a major development. We thought they would appoint internal internal internalally. They say they weathered the financial storm so well, they didnt have to go to centralized cothey didnt have to be bailed out and therefore mark carney will get the job in the United Kingdom. Its one of the most important jobs in banking. He will have an eightyear term. He will not just set Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom, hell determine whether or not the big u. K. Banks and im talking about barclays and whether they get group. Tucker, who we thought would get the job, is not getting the job possibly because of his involvement or perhaps the tarnishment of the scandal. They can go outside of the country to find for the first time in 60 years outside of the bank and outside of the country. Its like taking bernankes replacement outside of the u. S. A more free Market Solution by far. Barclays we are keeping a close eye on. Canadians are like what . We just lost one of our best players. Canadas Banking System has avoided many of the pitfalls that we saw in our country. They are a larger bank so to speak. A much smaller country than the u. S. Very interesting. You know what else is interesting is this move south in many of the big names in retail. Did want to point this out on the day when we add up many Different Services to track how sales were for last week. The market doesnt seem to be reacting that positively even though most of the metrics seem to be pretty good. You can see target there. Suffering an almost 2 decline. Look at macys down 3 this morning. Again giving you a general sense as to tone in retail at least. Im seeing in the few that are positive, amazon, best buy, nike, urban, still in the green. Your point is well taken. Big names are in the red. Walmart down 1 . Jcpenney 1. 6 . Sears holdings, costco, home depot, lowes, all down this morning. They had been up. Always tough to tell how the holiday selling season really is going to shape up not just on last weeks numbers. Its clearly crunch time for retailers. We will talk to a report from the Distribution Center at lands end. Dont look now. The street is getting more bullish on shares of rimm as they ended last week with a gain of 23 . Phenomenal. Is there too much reliance on the launch of the blackberry 10 for the bullish argument. Well talk to an analyst who is sticking with his outperform rating next on cnbc. Started wo, i put away money. I was 21, so i said, hmm, i want to retire at 55. And before you know it, im 58 years old. Time went by very fast. It goes by too, too fast. But i would do it again in a heartbeat. [ laughs ] if we want to improve our schools. What should we invest in . Maybe New Buildings . What about updated equipment . They can help, but recent research shows. Nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. Lets build a strong foundation. Lets invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. Lets solve this. Those Little Things still get you. For you, lifes about her. 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If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30tablet free trial. Want to check on shares of research in motion. Shares surging friday after an analyst raised the price target to 15 from 12 ahead of the blackberry 10 launch in february. Heres the man that made that call. Analyst with National Bank financial joins us today. Good to have you. Welcome. Thanks for having me today. Walk me through the thesis that led you to the upgrade. We got more of these today and skeptics say these are very hollow upgrades. Is this real or not . Well, the thesis goes back a couple quarters ago. We went to a hold after we thought the negativity was really at a peak here. Our expectations were that Going Forward you will see more u. S. Brokers where negativity did originate fromrect we got negative in canada. We upgraded to a buy on the last quarter when the subscriber levels increased a couple million from 78 to 80 as you know. At the same time the asp increased. Our thesis going into blackberry 10 certification and subsequent launch now set for february was that a lot of the negativity would start to resurface or reverse and you will see the u. S. Guide upgrade stock and hopefully a short squeeze and we think the squawk will push through 15 and not surprised to see it go to 20 ahead of the launch. 20 is another interesting number. Are you trying to make a judgment on the 10 before we know how it will be received . Were not. Lets be fair. The numbers are really tricky to the model today. Theres a lot of assumptions. The company is undergoing massive restructures and sales reorganization. Its more of a go with the flow call. Were following the money. Our idea was that investors would start to go market weight on this name. Dont want to bet against the dollars flowing to the stock. If it gets good reviews upon launch, its off to the races and value of the company today is very low. If they can be successful, we wouldnt be surprised at all to see this at 25 to 30 even next year. But a lot of butts and ifs in that. If we are on air long enough, we may get to 50. An analyst is slamming back at what you put out saying bb 10 phones have a low chance of success. They say that they are too late and continued consumer shift to competitors is already on the way. In a sense the game is over. I think thats unfair. They have 80 million subscribers today. A lot of us are very loyal. Think about Business Users that like to generate a lot of emails during the day. Its difficult to do on competing platforms with virtual keyboard. I think the call platform unsuccessful before it launches is not fair. You say in your note that i have in front of me here that applying a fundamental valuation to rimm is tough. Lets be frank. Full year 2014 earnings per share estimates are very uncertain. If you dont know where the company will be in 2014, how can you apply a valuation to it . Its not a fundamental call. I see your point. The valuation is very wide. We could give you a Sensitivity Analysis that gets you to a dollar per share easily with 330 asp next year for shipments. Were using 270 right now. Our thesis is based on flow of funds. We think its speculative investment right here. Its not fundamentals. We believe positivity around the upcoming bb 10 launch and discussions that weve had with the developing community, were hearing a lot of very positive sentiment right now behind the platform and its potential. Its a speculative investment going into the bb 10 launch and then they need to deliver and we need to have a good bb 10 experience. All right. At least you are up front about that. Thanks for your time. Thanks for having me. Chris thompson at National Bank financial. One thing for sure, a big week for Economic Data capped off with a revision to Third Quarter gdp on thursday. Here with what to watch for including effects from Superstorm Sandy is steve liesman. Good interview on blackberry. A week to Pay Attention to the data. It will be affected by Hurricane Sandy making it difficult to figure out underlying momentum. Gdp is not one of the data points. We put an asterisk next to data potentially affected by sandy. Some worry that markets wont see through sandy effects and could walk away with a bearish look. Theres durable goods potential effect there down 1. 3 after a surge the prior month. Consumer confidence, probably not. New home sales certainly in the northeast have potential. Moving on to thursday. Jobless claims. Definite potential there and pending home sales. Not gdp. This game at the end of the quarter or after the quarter had ended. Now lets look at jobless claims data here. Do we have that . I think we do. There we go. Theres Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane katrina. You can see its following a very, very similar pattern there and the expectation is that it will come down again on thursday to 390,000. One more thing i want to look at is gdp during katrina. A slowdown during katrina you can see right there, thats third from the right there. Thats the quarter it happened. Second from the right is the quarter after and then you can see the pop in the First Quarter of 06. Drag on growth of commerce and Economic Activity disrupted followed by a rebound as rebuilding begins in earnest. Were looking for a revised number on gdp but a weaker quarter in the fourth quarter. The overridie inine ining gdp i sandy but the fiscal cliff. Steve liesman. Online retailers stacking up the deal offerings on this cybermonday. Still ahead, ceo of Home Shopping network gives us a read on traffic that company has been seeing thus far. Plus, tyler and Cameron Winklevoss headed to post 9. Were back in two. [ male announcer ] how do you trade . With scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. Fully customize it for your trading process from thought to trade, on every screen. And all in real time. Which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Try our easytouse scottrader streaming quotes. Its another reason more investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Its another reason more investors are saying. Music is a universal language. But when i was in an accident. I was worried the Health Care System spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. Information on my phone. Connection to doctors who get where im from. And tools to estimate what my care may cost. So i never missed a beat. Were more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Why use temporary treatments when you can prevent the acid thats causing it with prevacid24hr. With one pill prevacid24hr works at the source to prevent the acid that causes frequent heartburn all day and all night. And with new prevacid24hr perks, you can earn rewards from dinner deals to music downloads for purchasing prevacid24hr. Prevent acid all day and all night for 24 hours with prevacid24hr. First reported by the New York Times, it is now official, mary shapiro is stepping down as head of the sec next month. This network will have full Team Coverage on that breaking news in the next hour of squawk on the street. Meantime, how much does cyber monday mean for the retail world . For landsend, it means plenty. Our own Brian Shactman is at landsend Distribution Center in wisconsin where theyre probably still mourning the packers loss last night. Morning, brian. Reporter yeah, it is incredible, carl. It still feels like its a marketing concept, right . But it does mean a lot and means a lot of money. The conveyer belts behind me have been absolutely humming since 6 00 a. M. And theres seven miles of it. From the sorting to the boxing, to the monogramming, the tone in this building is of a serious focus on managing the incredible volume. I just want to give people a little perspective. Last year they handled 180,000 orders from cyber monday. And their busiest hour, 21,000, today so far, they had an hour that handled 24,000 and theyre tracking even bigger than last year. This facility, its about 21 football fields and takes about 2,600 people to staff at a time like this. I want to talk about theyve been doing door busters online since last wednesday. This one, which i had customized for cnbc, 10, usually goes for 25. It sold out in about half an hour. I also want to give people a perspective on what exhale happens here. The packages, the orders come down this slide right here, then theyll come across over here to this conveyer belt where someone will put it on another conveyer belt where it will go around this room and get dumped in various places to be boxed. After getting boxed, theres a conveyer belt underneath where it goes all the way down to the end to the green conveyer belts where they will sort it yet again based on geography, zip code, major destination, and on the other side of that wall are 50 u. P. S. Tractortrailers that will take them across the country. I do want to point out two quick things. One is its no longer just cyber monday. They bracket thanksgiving from wednesday to today, so they see the overall volume as their biggest week. And i also want to tell people, these orders that are being done right now are actually yesterdays. The big cyber monday volume here is tomorrow where they expect to do more than the 180,000 they did on what they call super tuesday here in wisconsin. All right. Thanks for vuch, brian. Those Distribution Centers are always i have to say cool. I remember spending time with walmart. The series of big analyst calls today on some seriously beaten down names. Herb greenberg is up next with a call to curb your enthusiasm. [ male announcer ] tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. The memories that last, start with the gifts that last. Enjoy Free Shipping and great values on your Holiday Shopping from l. L. Bean. Or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. Nobody said an allinone had to be bulky. Or that you had to print from your desk. At least, nobody said it to us. Introducing the business smart inkjet allinone series from brother. Easy to use. Its the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and lowcost printing. Got a slew of interesting analyst calls on the street today praising old beaten down names. Yahoo catching an upgrade at goldman, rimm at cibc. But Herb Greenberg says dont get too excited yet. Thats right. No mistake about it. All of these are highly speculative calls that seem more geared to traders than investors. The overriding theme is a is something that appear spring appears to have been coiled way too tightly with the hope of what may or may not happen. Look at facebook. The bernstein analyst talks about beating consensus. Facebook doesnt offer guidance. Hes actually doing what analysts are supposed to do. Hes doing analysis and making a very bold call. He also gives himself a little bit of wiggle room by saying that facebook remains a risky investment. Like wise with research in motion. The cibc analyst upgrade is a bet that blackberry 10 will win, quote, material share from apple and android. Oh, by the way, as he points out in the risks to his analysis at the very bottom of the report, something very something i always like to look at and that is all bets are off if there isnt an increase in subscribers. And just as you guys report a little bit ago, Morgan Stanley is out with a note totally disagreeing calling rimm uninvestable in the near term. As for yahoo, if you read the report very closely. You talk about the assets, it really is all about the stock buyback. The bottom line here is in this market, all you have to do is make some kind of bold call on a beaten down name, and the stock will get going. Carl . Some of these calls sound like someone saying x Football Team is going to win unless they dont score any touchdowns. Then im not sure. Thats the perfect analogy, carl. And in the meantime, we had the one on friday on rimm. Arguing, i thought very honest, saying this is a follow of the money call. It is speculative in the near term. Yeah, look at what he writes in the report and look at how he writes it. I mean, hes sort of hoping and, i think, again, these analysts seem to be behind the curve on a lot and hoping to catch up. People want to whats that . Facebook was always going to be this stop because youre buying an option on the future and dont know what the shape of that option was going to be. Tfsz always going to have wild almost binary swings between those that think the future is great and those that think its poor. You dont buy facebook today, you buy it as an option on the 900 million subscribers two or three years down the line. If yourself an investor, thats what you do. You work through the mobility issues and whether they can get the right kind of advertising. But these calls are based on again, the analyst doing a lot of research. Making bold calls on a company that doesnt do guidance. Hes talking about beating street estimates. One the stock has already beaten down. I give the guy credit. I said it three times already. Bold call, but again, for traders, itll work out well see what happens down the road. Thanks, herb. Simon, well see you again in half an hour. Well talk some greece and whats going on. David, well see you later on. If youre just joining us here, heres what you missed earlier on this morning. Welcome to hour three of squawk on the street. Heres whats happening so far. All comes down to probably u. S. Companies paying less in corporate tax. Theyre going to pay less in corporate tax, who are the beneficiaries of that . Shareholders. I think the shareholders should pay more in tax to make up for that lost revenue. All it takes is political courage. Its not technically difficult. Its very easy for us to get this done over the next two or three weeks as long as you have two willing partners. Try to relate the macro to the retail sales. It just doesnt compute. It shouldnt be as good as it is. And if you go back and read the headlines at least a week ago, it wasnt supposed to be as good. This is the upside surprise. I dont think that europe is as big an issue anymore, sorry. I dont. I do think fiscal cliff, the momentum seems to have stalled. I just you needed to have nonstop momentum on this issue. Right now, Corporate America strong balance sheets, great cash position, europe there are good companies. Chinas probably going to begin to stimulate kind of sickcyclic. I think its greatly exaggerated. Were checking our lists as the squawk on the street countdown to christmas continues. Ho ho ho. Merry christmas sure did treat me nice well, a little snow on the special effects. Good morning, everyone. Lets get a check on the markets on this monday morning. The dow, the s p, the nasdaq all having trouble getting out of bed. Close to session lows with the dow down 87, s p down nine, and the nasdaq down eight. Facebook, the most active stock rising sharply on several analyst moves. Retailers, meantime, some of the todays biggest losers after data shows that black friday sales dipped despite an increase in store traffic. Retail sales fell on black friday. Macys, coach, aeropostal, and target all feeling that. The Holiday Season in full swing. And according to new data, it does not bode well for microsofts surface tablet. What he saw at a Microsoft Store on black friday that has him very worried. Plus, are people braving the malls or trying to find deals from the comfort of the couch . The ceo of the Home Shopping network joins us for a look at what theyre expecting. And the winklevoss twins with the inside scoop on their latest investment. Why they have so much confidence in an online starter huckster. All that and more in the next hour. But were going to start with the news that mary shapiro will step down as head of the sec. More on that breaking story. Hey, eamon. She will step down effective december 14th. Now, remember, of course, she took office in january of 2009 right after the financial crisis in the early days of the obama administration. Crucially for the sec, she took office right after the exposure of the Bernie Madoff scandal. And the sec has been struggling to put the pieces together ever since then. Take a look at some of the highlights over at the sec. The sec pointing out this morning that theyve had more Enforcement Actions than ever before in the past two years. 735 actions in 2011 and 734 in 2012. And the sec is now engaged in one of the busiest rulemaking periods in decades and pointing out that her response to the frash crash included requiring exchanges to create a consolidated audit trail. This is a pretty well rolled out announcement here today. We saw the leak to the New York Times, then the official announcement and then a few minutes ago, the sec put out an email entitled some of the accomplishments under mary shapiros tenure. Also going to hear from a lot of the critics of the sec. Some on the left saying she has not gone far enough. The sec has not gone far enough and some on the right saying that dodd frank and the regulations there are overbearing. Expect a full debate throughout the day today. Thanks so much, eamon. Lets get our Capital Markets oped. Gary kaminsky has thoughts. The madoff thing is a big stain. Yeah, yeah. Well, the madoff thing was it began before she got that appointment. I think eamon covered most. Typically these appointments when youre placed in front of the sec, its a political appointee. Someone done something good for the administration. I think although would not be typical to have somebody from within head of enforcement to move up to be head of the sec, i think he has a good opportunity. The Enforcement Division has done a very, very good job on the mary schapiro, and lets switch gears a little bit today. And reflecting over the weekend rating, we know how difficult this year has been. Unless something changes dramatically, 2012 will go down as one of the most difficult years in terms of trying to pick a trend, and just sort of ride them as we know. Its been very, very volatile. Case in point, you saw the move in on friday. But if you p didnt know anything and looked at the following data, look over the weekend heres the highyield market. There was outflows, 1. 1 billion in outflows last week. The week before, 1. 3 billion. You are seeing sales in highyield bonds as yields have come down and prices have obviously reflected that. And at the same time, if you only saw that headline, saw that data, take a look at munis. Take a look at the mub. Record inflows, 1. 8 billion. Money going into muni funds is kind of crazy when you think about whats happening there. And thats on top of 700 million last week. So, again, risk on, risk offs. If you only knew what was happening in the junk markets and the muni markets and you said is this risk on or risk off . Take those two points, that is risk off. If you think about how the year has ended, the confusion continues, the mixed messages continue. I guess this is, again, the impact of what happens when you have qe forever. If you only looked at this, you wouldve thought it would be down 400 points last week, not up. Yeah, we are in the matrix. Thats for sure given the last year. One energy stock losing steam today. I want to send it over to Michelle Carusocabrera. Energy stocks getting hit hard today because the price of natural gas falling below 3. 75 per million btus, tied to weak forecasts or milder temperatures in december. Remember, high levels of storage. There you see chesapeake was the worst performer of the s p 500, now just one of the weakest lower by nearly 4 . Guys, back to you. Thanks so much. Over the weekend, the Piper Jaffray team observed the microsoft and the apple stores in the mall of america. While ipad purchases seem slower than last year, the 11 ipads sold per hour did outweigh sales of the microsoft surface. Joining us for a closer look is gene munster. Has a price target of 900. Gene, good to see you again. Hello. Did you park yourself at the mall . Yeah, it got pretty long. We were there for ten hours. I did about seven of those hours. Im glad its only once a year. Thats why they pay you the big bucks weekends like this. Walk me through what you saw and be as specific as you can. Well, it was kind of tale of two cities. You know, in terms of traffic, there was at some points, the store traffic at mall of america was the apple store was around 1,100 per hour. The Microsoft Store ran about half of that in terms of these stores are right across the hallway from each other. I think probably the most notable point was microsoft has been on an advertising people went into the store, checked it out. They didnt sell one surface during that time. And i asked people why they didnt purchase it and they basically said that it was another pc. And i think microsoft tried to really get both tablet and pc in it. And consumers are seeing this more as a pc. Gene, im trying to get my arms around that data point. Youre in one of the largest malls, the largest mall in america, if its not number one, it may be number two. At a Microsoft Store for two hours and not a single surface sells. How does that happen . I think it happens because people dont want it. I think at the end of the day its it has a lot of good fanfare and impressive advertising, but i think theyd probably buy a cheaper, rather just netbook or an ipad. And i think thats essentially what happened. About 80 of what we saw sold at the Microsoft Store was xbox games, those were discounted. No buyers. Lets switch to apple. Among the observations was the mini in high demand does appear to face supply issues. Yeah, its kind of deja vu with that. We estimate about 60 of sales up to date have been at a 16gig version. The cheapest version, thats probably the case too with the holiday because its the cheapest version and people want to keep the price down for gifting. But, unfortunately, there really wasnt any supply, there was none at the mall of america. We checked we called ten other stores on black friday and didnt see any availability of that. And so, to the point that online its a twoweek lead time now for those 16gig and so this is a potential to be that holiday hit here, but theyve got to be able to make them. Yeah. So given the data you got over the weekend, anecdotal as it is, does it make you want to go longer apple or shorter microsoft or both . Well, i think longer apple. And one of the points was traffic at the apple store up 31 yearoveryear. The brand is in great shape. And theyre going to work through the supply issues. And so the earnings are going to come. Well, its a lot of hard work, obviously. And appreciate the guidance and the insight, gene. Well talk to you next time. Otherwise the holiday was great. Thank you. Plenty of online retailers stacking up the deal offerings on this cyber monday. When we come back, well check in with ceo of the Home Shopping network to get a read on just how many people are looking to save money from the comfort of their own homes. And later on tyler and Cameron Winklevoss join us at post nine with details on the newest investment. More squawk on the street after the break. At the best schools in the world. You see they all have something very interesting in common. They have teachers. With a deeper knowledge of their subjects. As a result, their students achieve at a higher level. Lets develop more stars in education. Lets invest in our teachers. So they can inspire our students. Lets solve this. We believe the more you know, the better you trade. So we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, inbranch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Our teams have the information you want when you need it. Its another reason more investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Hsn coming off the strongest weekend in the 35year history. On black friday, 13 more shopped with hsn compared to last year. Mobile is hsns Fastest Growing digital platform. And making a big push on cyber monday by offering Free Shipping on over 10,000 items. The ceo of Hsn Incorporated and joins us this morning. Welcome back. Hope the weekend was great. It was terrific, thanks, carl. The strongest in 35 years. How does that happen . Well, we spent a lot of time making sure not just our products but our experiences across every single platform we have were the strongest ever. And thats both our live broadcast, our mobile, our interactive gift guide on tablets as well as our online experience. And we look at every day as a complete 360degree network. Not just a monday or a friday. Its what we do to engage customers with dpreat valgreat values, great experiences. And thats what shes responding to. Yeah, 20 of total web sales, im told are now mobile, right . Well, actually, peaking higher than that at about 25 and traffic at about 35 . So to your point, shes not on the couch. She is out there. Shes moving around. The package is in the open so to speak. Would we be talking record numbers, mindy, if it werent for digital and mobile . You know, we dont bifurcate our channels that way. We look at the whole global integration of what we do. And thats why, you know, the idea of even a cyber monday is a bit antiquated. You have to be engaging your customer across every platform and make sure they integrate together and youre giving her an experience thats unique and personalized and customized no matter what she wants to do. We stream live hd video across every one of these platforms from tablet to mobile to online. So she can engage with us wherever she wants, one shopping cart. Its the ultimate in sh experience married to engagement, married to convenience. Talk to me about the mind set, i like the way you call her she. You have a program called flex pay. Buy now, pay over time. Are you sensing any kind of need to finance a purchase or no no more than in the past. But whats great about flex pay to your point is you can get the product home now. Theres no interest. And its part of the demand, the service, and what we want to offer our customer. And shes definitely shopping. And what were seeing is shes shopping at great price points under 25, like personal humidifiers we sold 50,000 of, or she shopping at higher price points. And that could be ipads, could be viewpoint scanners, could be televisions. Today its beats by dr. Dre and we sold thousands. And its really kind of giving people what you feel they may want and then customizing whatever that experience is for them. Right. 10,000 items, Free Shipping, is that as a retailer, does that do you cringe at that given what it may or may not do to margins . I dont cringe at anything the consumers driving, a reason for us to Pay Attention to. We have to balance that with the overall business, but the reality is that to be competitive, Free Shipping and the landscape. But we marry that to our other demand levers such as flex pay, and the fact that we can offer ideas, information, and all the other things that our customer comes to us for. As well as the trust in what we do. So it is just making sure that were doing that strategically and how it makes sense for the overall financials of our business. Right. Finally, mindy, some of the skeptics want to say this is pulling forward and december relative to a good black friday weekend is going to be kind of tepid. What do you say to that . Well, goes back to my original comment. We dont look at any one day differently. What we have done for the entire season is focus on how were creating great products, great values, great experiences, and a brand like us that we can trust across all our platforms and thats what were going to continue to do and thats why were seeing the strength daytoday. Its been a good year for you guys, mindy. Its been a great year. Please come back soon. Thank you. Wendy grossman. Still ahead, the winklevoss twins are stopping by, theyre going to tell us what online startup theyre backing now and why. Were back after a quick break. The cnbc realtime Exchange Market snap shop shot is brough you by interactive brokers. [ male announcer ] if you suffer from heartburn 2 or more days a week, why use temporary treatments when you can prevent the acid thats causing it with prevacid24hr. With one pill prevacid24hr works at the source to prevent the acid that causes frequent heartburn all day and all night. 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Tdd 18003452550 call 18776861922 tdd 18003452550 and a global specialist tdd 18003452550 will help you get started today. Lets go to the mall everybody. Welcome back to squawk on the street. A market flash about ceradine. Points out the shares are lower today on news of an article that ran over the weekend in military times talking about a recall of body armor plates due to potential failure. The defect was found in less than 5 of the plates. They are going to take action to fix the problem. The stock is lower by. 75 . The dow is now down triple digits. Weve given away more than half of what we gained in that short session on friday. Meantime, Holiday Shopping can sometimes be a survival of the fittest activity. But this year, a slew of startups are making it easier and cheaper to manage the stretch before the holiday. Julia boorstin wither more on that. Hey, julia. Reporter hi, carl. With Online Shopper growing far faster than traditional retail sales, new hightech tools are helping tackle old shopping problems. Finding the perfect gift, managing gift cards, and making sure you get a deal. Likes, retweets, pins, and shares provide valuable shopping hints. The fancy, which is like pinterest, but focused on men makes it easier to purchase things friends have fancied. Fancy shoppers can shop personal recommendations. And with gift cards 100 billion market, start of gifts mobile apps makes it easier to buy and cash in on gift cards. Offering discounts and reminders. Backed by Google Ventures and integrated with facebook to enable easy gifting within the social network. One perk, users can regift cards without any trace. And for shoppers looking for a bargain, huckster, which is backed by the winklevoss twins can track when items go on sale. They will receive emails or texts when the price drops. Mobile app trunket is similar to huckster. Its sister app called sales stream shows streaming sales information. These aim to be a winwin for shoppers and retailers. The better the tools, the more people should buy. Carl . Julia, thank you so much. And dont forget, tyler and Cameron Winklevoss will be here a little bit later about 11 40 a. M. Eastern time. Well get the close, the details on the impact here on us. And hopefully some insight on whats happening with this would be bailout tranche to greece back in four minutes. Oh. There you go. Wooohooo. Hahaahahaha im gonna stand up to her no youre not. I know. You know ronny folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. How happy are they jimmy . Happier than a witch in a broom factory. Get happy. Get geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. Well, having a ton of locations doesnt hurt. And a santa to boot [ chuckles ] right, baby. Oh, sir. That is a customer. Oh. Sorry about that. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. Fedex office. It has been a busy day of headlines as everyone gets back to work. Were going to see europe close in a little more than a minute. Mary schapiro leaving the sec. Simon is here to talk more about whats still going on regarding greece. Greece, i mean, its all about the politicians, whether its barcelona, greece, or whether its what happened in london. The bank of Canada Governor mark carney giving a News Conference when hes explaining why he has decided to go over and be the governor of the bank of england. Yes, the bank of england in the United Kingdom for the next five years saying thats where the greatest challenge lies. Not only setting military policy, but also regulating the uk banks. Earlier in london, the finance minister there explaining he was reaching outside of the bank of england, outside of the uk to bring in the canadian because the canadians have so well run their banks through the financial crisis. He says he wanted a fresh pair of eyes on what was happening in the uk and they never centralized control of the banks in canada. And he wanted that experience in the uk. Here is now the european close. The european markets are closing now. So its negative territory. A lot of that has to do with whats happened, perhaps, in spain over the weekend. Well come back to that at the moment. Just to pick up that conversation about the regulation of the banks and whether in the uk under carney, under the canadian now, and whether they get split up or whether they simply ring fence retail operations. If you look at the Market Action in london, some of those banks are in negative territory. This move here down 6 , looks quite squacary. Earlier traded in some of their warrants. There was a share issue, if you would like, sold into the market of about 1. 25 billion, thats why the bank was lower. The banks are down, its not a huge move on carney. The debate will continue. There is the possibility of a rally on wall street this afternoon on what is happening in brussels with the finance ministers. They for the third time are talking about what they should be doing with the greek situation and whether they can find a way to get the debt down longer term so they can give the cash that greece needs to pay its bills in december. I dont want to get into the weeds on that, but effectively, theyre cobbling together, theyre horse trading various instruments that can get them down. Take a look at this. That can get them down to this target of what they believe is sustainable for 2012, which is a gdp debt to gdp ratio of 120 . The idea is that countries will cut the spread the extra that they make on their loans to greece over the financing costs from 150 basis points to 90. Or that the efsf, the security net defers the interest on greek loans for ten years. That could cut the ratio by 17 if that happens. Or that the ecb forgoes the profits. And that would cut 4. 5 longer term from that. The imf wants haircuts. Well keep you informed of that as we move forward. In the meantime, we are mindful of whats happening in spain. If youve just tuned in, the elections, headed in barcelona over the weekend, yes, the proindependence party gained more votes from ten seats gets 21 seats. In the regional, 125 assembly there. It does increase the pressure on the spanish prime minister. But interestingly, if you look at where weve traded on the spanish debt, in fact, its down today, that may have more to do, carl, with reports of about to ask for the bailout. Back to you. Thank you very much. Getting a statement from the white house this morning. The president commenting on the departure from the sec. Saying that the president is going to designate elise walter as chairman. Schapiro departure will be Something Like december 14th. Not a good day, mary. Certainly not. You were mentioning earlier, the markets have given up a good deal of the gains they posted on friday. Coming in todays session, a number of traders saying we were overbought. Now, the dow is just off the lows of the session. There was a headline crossing from the wall street journal saying that president obama and House Speaker boehner did speak about the fiscal cliff over the weekend. The market took back a couple of points there. Really nothing dramatic. Declines today very broadbased and they have helped to push the s p 500 below that 1,400 mark today. Of course, they are waiting on a greek deal, could give a lift to the markets, maybe this afternoon and, of course, a lack of news other than those headlines that just crossed about the fiscal cliff. A bit of a concern as we came in to todays session. Also interesting to note that the Retail Sector is weak today. This after the reports that looked like trading over the or i should say sales over the start of the Holiday Shopping season were fairly strong. We have some of the higher end retailers actually leading the retreat among the retailers that we are seeing. Keep in mind, the white house did put out a paper saying how the middle class would be impacted in the event we went over the fiscal cliff and how some of those retailers would, as well. The exception among the higher end retailers appears to be tiffany or is tiffany today i should say moving a little bit higher. Utilities outperforming, as well. Underperforming the broader markets over the last five sessions, weve seen a turn around there, excelon raised from buy to hold over at deutsche bank. Telecon and financials giving up some of those gains. Health care also weaker after United Health care actually issued a profit warning for 2013. While sales are expected to be stronger than expected, it says some of the costs they experienced, lower costs last year may not go into 2013. Again, the dows off 100. Back to you. Thank you, Mary Thompson. More on this news regarding change of leadership over at the sec. Eamon, im reading up on elise walter, a name were going to be seeing a lot more of soon. Yeah, thats right. Sort of a stunner here in washington. Not a name on a lot of peoples lips here in washington. Although, maybe it should have been. But the president just announcing within the past couple of minutes that he intends to designate elise walter, a current sec commissioner as the chair upon shapiros departure on december 14th of next month. Importantly here, walter is a current sec commissioner and appointed by george w. Bush to the sec and worn sworn in on juh 2009. And that might have been a little bit of a hint here that she was well thought of in washington circles. But again, elisse walter, not a name circulating by many folks here in town and were efforting a little bit more of information from the white house on why theyre making this pick and what the designation says about where the president intends to go in terms of wall street regulation in his second term, carl. Yeah, interesting. Veteran of the cftc, of the nasd, she has made the rounds with agencies and exchanges. And i know youll be digging more into her biography as we get closer to that nomination process. Eamon, thanks so much. Meanwhile, Matthew Martoma in court today on charges of conspiracy to commit securities fraud after allegedly arranging to obtain secret advance results of tests on that experimental alzheimers drug. Our Bertha Coombs live with more. Reporter a procedural hearing this morning to set bail, 38yearold Matthew Martoma the former Portfolio Manager at a unit of sac capital will have to post a recognizance bond, including 2 million in cash or property. He needs to obtain three c signatori signatories. Hell will restricted to travel in the Southern District of new york, new jersey, in massachusetts where he has a home and also florida, his primary residence now. He was arrested six days ago in boca raton and will also have supervision in florida. The preliminary trial, preliminary hearing rather is set for 30 days from now on december 26th. But attorneys speaking in court, its quite likely that could be pushed off until the new year. That preliminary hearing would happen if, indeed hes not formally indicted before then. If a grand jury formally indicts him, well be back in court with that. Again, 38yearold former cr intrinsic Portfolio Manager Matthew Martoma today facing a 5 million bond for Insider Trading allegedly involving inside information on a key alzheimers drug trial. Back to you. Bertha, thank you so much for that. I know youll keep us up to speed later on. Meantime, time for another Capital Markets oped. Clocks ticking on this tax income. Former colleagues, form clients, everybodys wondering about this 3. 8 tax. This is going to happen regardless whatever comes out with the fiscal cliff. The wall street journal on saturday, the personal finance section did a great job explaining that. Here it is, 3. 8 tax, joint files of under 250,000. Its going to apply to dividends, xmunis. For now, munis not included. Net Capital Gains, rents, royalties, and some investment annuities. What it is basically if a couple has adjusted gross income of 250,000, but they have 2,000 of interest, 4,000 of dividends and 1,000 in net Capital Gains would not apply. 240,000 but if you had Capital Gains, net Capital Gains of 10,000, youre in that threshold of 250, its going to kick in and that 3. 8 on that net, the net difference being 6,000 above 250 is 3. 8 . 228. The point here is this is a number that everyone can at least try to think about and figure out where it is. This is happening no matter what happens with rise above. These are numbers you should start thinking about and planning right now in terms of your own personal spending. As i said, its not going to be something thats a debate or adjusted. Now, speaking of this, you know, there are many people that think this will have an impact on Consumer Spending and may hit something. But its certainly not impacting that. Take a look at the movies over the weekend. Im sure you saw the numbers. Box office was absolutely tremendous. I, myself, did not go shopping, but did see a couple of films over the weekend. And five got to get to another story that combines taxes and movies. Take a look at this picture right here. Bring it up there. Theres peter madoff. Thats his younger brother, peter. He copped a plea back in june and made a decision he was going to go to jail. He was supposed to be in jail right now. He had his sentencing moved to middecember because he said he needed more time to refile his old tax returns. But a little birdie whispered in my ear over the weekend, while he was out trying to wait to go to jail and figure out his tax returns, he did get an opportunity to go to the movies, guess what film he went to see over the weekend . Tell me. Tell me. He went to go see the bond film. He was very, very happy he was able to get the prison sentence pushed off a bit. He wanted to see the bond film. Peter, hope you enjoyed it while youre still out there. It is a good movie. Hope he enjoyed. Thanks, gary, talk to you in a little bit. Meantime, lawmakers expected to meet for a compromise deal on the fiscal cliff. Plus some news crossing, the president and Speaker Boehner did talk on the phone on saturday. John harwood live in washington with the latest. John . Carl, you know, the president and the speaker had a conversation over the weekend. There havent been too many meetings at the staff level or the principals level. But there has been something that changed about the atmosphere post election. And what youve seen is more and more republicans coming out and being willing to say out loud theyre willing to raise taxes of some kind. Whether or not its tax rates or tax revenue in a way they werent willing to do in 2011 when john boehner and the president were negotiating an attempted grand bargain then. We saw one on the sunday shows over the weekend, that was Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and then bob corker of tennessee. Lets take a listen to their comments. I agree we shouldnt raise rates, but i think grover is wrong when it comes to we cant cap deductions and buy down debt. What do you do with the money . I will violate the pledge, long story short, for the good of the country only if democrats will do entitlement reform. Im not obligated on the pledge. I made tennesseans aware that the only thing im honoring is the oath i take when i serve when im sworn in this january. Now, of course, both of those republicans are in the senates, easier to get this done in the senate than in the house. John boehner has a job once he negotiates with the president and other leaders of getting it through that chamber. I talk to a senior staff level member on the democratic side today in the senate who predicted that were likely to see a twostage negotiation and twostage result. The first by the end of the year would be about a 1 trillion beginning of the 4 trillion overall package and the rest would be legislated next year. Well see whether they can get that done, carl. Hey, john, between chambliss, graham, and corker, and with regards to the norquist pledge, have we reached some Critical Mass here . Are we at a Tipping Point or not . Well, we are in the senate, but, of course, we have been. You had a lot of senators in 2011, the gang of six, which ultimately swelled to a much larger number who were willing to do it. The real difficulty in the house. Of course, theyve had their majority reelected, although in a smaller, slightly shrunken forum. I think he perceives a different environment. I think some of those members wi. Now theyve got to get a deal that will pass. Thanks a lot. Well see you later. When we come back, tyler and Cameron Winklevoss are here. Where is winklevoss capital putting its money . Theyre going to tell us after this. Ive been a superintendent for 30 some years at many different park Service Units across the United States. The only time ive ever had a break is when i was on maternity leave. I have retired from doing this one thing that i loved. Now, im going to be able to have the time to explore something different. Its like another chapter. Why they have a raise your rate cd. Tonight our guest, thomas sargent. Nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. Professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years . No. If he cant, no one can. Thats why ally has a raise your rate cd. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. [ male announcer ] tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. Enjoy Free Shipping and great values on your Holiday Shopping from l. L. Bean. But when i was in an accident. Enjoy Free Shipping and great values i was worried the Health Care System spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. So i never missed a beat. Thats health in numbers. Unitedhealthcare. Part of a whole new line of tablets from dell. Its changing the conversation. You can stay in and share something. Or you can get out there and actually share something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on. This is the pursuit of perfection. Coming up on halftime, three analysts, one stock. Talks to us exclusively about where americas most valuable company goes from here. Facebook, yahoo, and rimm, the street likes troubled tech today. But should you buy in . And a retail fund manager hit the malls this weekend. What he found and what you should buy today. Well see you top of the hour. Now back to squawk on the street. Black friday has come and gone. Did you miss out on those awesome sales . Well, youre in luck. Now you can leave the deal watching to someone else. All you have to do is hukk the item you want and hukkster will track the item for you. Youll never miss a bargain again. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss recently invested 750,000 into that company. They join us this morning along with the cofounders of hukkster. Welcome. Thank you for having us. I think its no coincidence were talking about this on cyber monday too, right . Yeah, allows shoppers to pull deals they want and notifies them when theyre available so they save money and it really works. Its a bit of a crowded space, is it not, cameron . What sets it apart. Its crowded in the sense that people are getting tons of deals sent their way. The problem is they dont have a way prior to hukkster of picking which deals they want to pull as opposed to having the deal sites out there push deals and maybe a small percentage of the deals youre being sent you want. So i think that hukkster pem pow empowers. When all youre doing is pushing and pushing. Thats been a difficult lesson for some. Erica, i want you to tell me about how this started and how life changed once these gentlemen came along. Katie and i met over six years ago, we worked together at j. Crew. And the idea for hukkster was born from our mutual frustration. We knew there had to be a better way. Cameron and tyler were actually introduced to us through a very random coincidence. I was at a wedding pitching hukkster. Isnt it always a wedding . Yeah, and as i always do, a friend of theirs overheard my conversation and ended up making the introduction. And katie you came along. You were at that same wedding, i assume . No, i wasnt. Came back with good news . That anecdote eke happens a. We learned more about hukkster, we were very impressed with the team they had assembled. And it really, all the boxes checked. So we decided to invest. Are you guys, winklevoss capital, been sparing in the shots theyve taken so far . Youve got one investment in something called sum zero, helps Money Managers link up. Did you only have a limited amount you wanted to spend . What was so attractive about this . Again, the business was attractive, the entrepreneurs are very confident. We felt like we could be add more than just our dollars strategically. So it made sense. And the phase and the stage of the company was young enough where we felt we could have a big impact. And so we invested. Cameron, how do the holidays look . And is this going to be a make or break phase here in terms of whether or not this is going to fly longterm . I think the Value Proposition. Ive been using hukkster since i met these guys a month ago and worked for me before the Holiday Season. I think the deals are accelerated during this time frame. Its an exciting time for us. I think a lot of people are going to see that the proof is in the pudding with the product. But hukkster is a year round theres a yearround value. I think they can speak to the Retail Industry and how the deals and prices are constantly fluctuating. How many employees right now, katie . And are you is it a matter at this point of keeping up with demand or the technology, investment, what . Yes, we have eight fulltime employees right now. And our focus right now is focusing on christmas sales really getting that all out there. But we have a lot of new product functionalties in the pipeline were excited about. Finally, where does it leave you two in terms of the fund, and what areas do you find most interesting now . Youve had a couple of famous plays, one of which we talk about all the time. Spaces youre most interested in . Well, i think were sort of looking across the board. We didnt really set out to necessarily invest in an Online Savings management tool. But it sort of as you sort of heard in the story, it randomly kind of came in front of us through a friend and it was that compelling. And we felt that we could really add value to the actual company, as well. So were kind of looking all around. And seeing what works and fits and this was one of them. Is it open to outside investors yet or not . Hukkster . No winklevoss capital. No, we have not raised is it going to happen eventually you think . Well see, anythings possible. Thank you for coming on. Well be watching closely. This is the season where these things get a lot of attention. Thank you, guys. Thank you. 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Trust me, this is new bayer migraine. [ male announcer ] its the power of aspirin plus more in a triple action formula to relieve your tough migraines. New bayer migraine formula. The looming fiscal cliff is affecting all aspects of business. Our Brian Sullivan is kicking off his recovery road trip today. And while we cant tell you exactly where he is yet. Hes been talking with Small Business owners about how theyre preparing for the cliff. Take a look. All right. Thanks, everybody. Listen, i cant say where i am, thats going to be the big reveal. We are here part of our road trip speaking about the economy, the fiscal cliff. Now that the election is over, were here with mark. Were going to give all your information later, but if i say your name and company, people are going to know where we are. Were not going to give that. You run a Marketing Company and a branding firm. How has your business gone now that the election is over and as we head toward the fiscal cliff . Well, our business has been robust and continues to be robust. So far, it hasnt been impacted at all. Were actually looking forward to a pretty good 2013. Are your clients saying, hey, mark, i want to give you more business, but im worried about this fiscal cliff thing. Im worried about taxes, worried about the economy. Are you hearing that at all . Well, we havent heard specifically from our clients. And we handle a lot of global brand brands. But i have heard it from other ceos in the region. Theyre tapping the brakes and not investing to the degree they would have. The Big Companies would hire you to do branding and marketing for them, but do you have to are you planning to adjust your tax strategy at all . I absolutely am. And weve been talking with our accountan accountants. And you have to make adjustments. With all the tax increases coming, you have to plan accordingly. And if you dont, youre missing an opportunity. Planning is key. A real pleasure, were going to reveal your digits and information later. We appreciate you joining us. There you go, guys. Maybe we should call fiscal cliff stimulus for accountants. Back to you. And be sure to keep it here on cnbc for more of brians recovery road trip all day today on cnbc. And by the way, if you were watching that piece of tape carefully enough, you might have been able to guess where brian is. But thats all im going to give you. One quick look at facebook