Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20120329

morning. mobile ad company. here at the new york stock exchange. we'll be speaking with the ceo. >> best buy shares on the rise, at least they were on some better than expected earnings. hopes that its cost-cutting plan can reverse the bleeding at the electronic retailer. >> they're sitting at a three-week low. spain posting before its austerity. we're also watching very carefully yields in europe as well. >> one can dream at least. the mega million jackpot has now reached and estimated half a billion dollars and it is not too late to buy a ticket. in fact, a lot of people are doing just that. the drawing tomorrow at 11:00 p.m. eastern. your odds, 1 in 176 million. i'll take it. >> it's better than nothing. >> for half a billion, do you know what you can do with that, jim? >> people are all talking about it. it is rather remarkable. the excitement for this is so much. when you look at the volume in the new york stock exchange. it's like clearly they would rather play the mega millions rather than play annis which started out looking sad. i like annie's. >> best pop since linkedin. >> the mania continues today, one day after the big offerings. we are going to see mm, millennial media priced here at the nasdaq. the demand is strong. we're also going to get cafe press ore at the nasdaq which priced its ipo at $19 a share, also above the range. the demand is quite good. the pipeline seems to be strong and the companies seem to be taking advantage of this window where it is favorable for new companies. >> this is one of those moments that captures everybody by surprise. we had bob pisani on yesterday. look. this is not a dot-com or interplay to annie's. it's a personalization company. but if we are in a moment where these ipos make people money, that will drop people back to the party. we're being facetious about mega millions, but there's money being made. >> why wouldn't an average investor look at annis and know that even 19, even 23, take a look at the bids before it opened, that they will get the shares once that pop is made. they're still at a disadvantage. why does this give hope to the average investor? >> this was not a hot deal and there was stock available and the average investor could have participated. >> really? >> yes. >> this was not regarded as going be great deal so the retail investor got in. >> i recall groupon's offering, right your criticism at the time was the size of the flow, criticisms with a bunch of new issues last year. is that no longer a function of the ipo market? >> i think it was a great deal but there was a lot of hype to groupon. no hype to an in's. no hype deal means there was a lot. by the way, demand ware. first, no one thought much of it and then it built some momentum. so there was some opportunity to get in. all i'm saying is, boy, a lot of things have not been great in the ip world. you'd rather see the enthusiasm grow organically if you pardon the pun. >> i'm pro-stock market. it's been such a loser for so long. >> one story people are watching today invofts best buy posting better than expected earnings. revenues came in on weak holiday sa sales. they announced a three-year cost-cutting plan including to shut 50 stores. a lot of worries about comps, not just in mobile phones but in electronics and what that might mean for the likes of amazon and others, jim. >> there's a bit of a setup. one of the things that's truly annoying is goldman sachs came out with a report that there's going to be a big dividend boost. it didn't pan out. >> why would they boost a dividend if they're trying to cut costs and streamline the business? that seems like a foolish practice. >> i agree, but goldman didn't think so. >> entertainment comps down 21% versus nine last year. herb greenberg's twitter this morning will be -- this will be the ultimate test on whether or not you can cut your way to prosperity and profitability. >> it's nice to hear they're closing the stores that aren't working, do a little international. again, i come back to the secular decline. i love to buy things on amazon. i don't like to pay the tax. i have to pay the tax at best buy. i'm always surprised retailers haven't been able to lobby congress but they failed so far. >> we were talking with a web securities manager. he said it's too late at this point because the decline is secular. what they should have done and this would have been a compelling prospect is to downsize the footprint of the stor stores and make it portable. any portable device, they will sell, laptops, tablets, smartphones and so on. focus on those businesses. forget the tvs. get smaller, more focused on the products and they should have done that three weeks ago. >> isn't that why we gouldgo to the apple stores? you've got go back and read this. this was a remarkable survey. 53% of households own apple and i'd rather go to apple to get apple. they're really smart about teaching me. i find when i go to my apple store, i say, listen, guys, teach me. make me into an 18-year-old, please. obviously you're stuck with a 67-year-old body. >> there was a time when the death of circuit city was supposed to mean gang busters for best buy. >> and it did for a while. >> and sears was going to sell out to lands' end. i used to go to sears to buy kenmore and appliances. >> where do you go now? >> i go to home depot. >> which is sitting at a 52-week high. let's talk about the worries that are preventing the zones around the world. they say they're falling far behind u.s. and can day when it comes to a shaky recovery. also spanish unions are gearing up for a general strike. the unions say the work stoppage had almost brought heavy industry to a complete halt and the government says the day is proceeding normally. it happens the day before the new budget is going to be presented. they're sort of voicing their concerns about the cutbacks. >> i would also point out that four months ago we were looking at the calendar. we saw that italy had this bill auction and then another five-year, ten-year. that was so well. germany, we're seeing some improved confidence. better hiring. so we're clearly seeing a bifurcati bifurcation. i do believe that the spanish institutions that we would follow, doing quite well. they've become an international bank and no longer levered to spain. i don't want to sell anything off of it. >> a lot of concerns about sovereign debt. even amid all the bad news in europe, morgan stanley's upping their global gdp forecast for 2012. something's going to go right on planet earth in their review. >> china. please cut rates. i mean i think a lot of people recognize that china can be a driver. i wish unemployment numbers had been better. now, the gdp number, there was an interesting personal income increase and that could explain why retail has been fairly strong this quarter. don't want to necessarily take my cue from best buy and after the close, research in motion. i audio like to take my cue from apple and macy's. >> your point was overall in markets. we've had a flash crisis, insider trades, rip off etfs and in your words horrendous but you thing the strength of the first quarter may not be an aberration. are you saying qe2 concerns could outpace qe1? >> i think the previous guest, jeremy segal on "squawk," think he's a visionary. i know that's plugless. let's look at the supermarket aisle of bonds versus stocks. but when you're looking at big money, they're going to have to look at performance in the first quarter and say, you know what, this bond's selloff. it's not good enough and i've got go be in stocks. how much of the big stock rally is apple? ? when you think about it, it's 19% of the 100. it has been a powerhouse in this rally. thanks to apple. >> that's a little narrow. >> that's a little narrow. >> if we get china cut, if we get a little better unemployment, i think we'll feel better. i think grow over the litany. i mean last friday, we had a major firm do an ipo. it was a trading firm and it traded right into oblivion, but at the same time, you have ipos doing better. it's hit or miss, but in the end you look back. the great peter lynch used to talk about how hard it is. how hard it is to flit in and out because you might miss a particular rally. people made a lot of money. >> do you think active managers lock in their gains starting now for the rest of the year? >> the active managers i know who used to play the game of trying to mark things up the last day, obviously there was a great investigation by the s.e.c. and they nailed a particular man injure and that was the end of that game. but the safe harbor is coming, support the stocks on tuesday. maybe europe is going to throw a monkey wrench underneath them. >> meantime, different kind of gambling. this is the lotto fever. it's soared the a record $500 million. mega millions is played in 42 states as well as wads and the virgin island. a lot in the norm times about how you win the game. by the way, i understand, quick picks, 70% of the winners plan to use dates, anniversaries, fewer people choose the higher numbers so quick quicks seem to get you a bigger bang for your buck. >> it seems odd. the probability is mathematical. >> it has to do with the number of people who might think a winningering buck, you know what i'm saying. >> the old daes, lorch long before i was born. the antitoe louisvillian days. my mother's side of the family and my father's side had the numb ben in the days when there were rackets before hay had lottery. i play those numbers and i think they're going to win. are you playing mega millions today? >> iage i will. >>er r really? >> i'll buy some. >> 176 million. you have a better chance of being hit by lightning. >> it is not about -- >> why would i want to get hit by lightning. i think you have to play it because everyone's playing it. you have to see "the hunger games" because everyone is seeing it. you have to eat chipotle because everybody's eating it. >> speaking of cultural phenomenons. >> he's drawing up plans to raise up the apollo 11's atlantic ocean. we want to know if you won the mega millions grand prize, what would you do with the money to recover. tweet us. we'll air your responses. >> someone wrote your move, james cameron. because all of these gazillionares are -- >> i'm getting a lot of ideas. marianna's chtrench, i go deepe than you. >> you'll want to hear what he has to say about his business and the m & a land scape. still saut jitters these morning this for the first time envelope a few weeks were live and a disappointment. nine in just three minutes. carfirmation. only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the spef hertz. the sleep number bed. the magic of this bed is that you're sleeping on something that conforms to your individual shape. wow! that feels really good. it's hugging my body. in less than a minute i can get more support. if you change your mind once you get home you can adjust it. so whatever you feel like, the sleep number bed's going to provide it for you. at our semi-annual sleep sale, save $400 to $700 on our most popular bed sets. sale ends march 31st. only at the sleep number store, where queen mattresses start at just $699. welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. and take a look at futures. the dow looking to lose about 54 at the open, the s&p looking to lose about 7. red hours across the board in europe as well as the oecd cuts the growth there and we're watching italian and spanish yields go higher. we want to check in in chicago with rick santelli. >> we had a spongy. but we see the rally continue. 215, these are the lows for the cycle since rates started to climb on the 13th day of the fed meeting. look at dollar/yen. now, if you look at it over six months, that's done well. that's by design. japanese exporter economy, they prefer a weaker yen, but something got in the way of that and it's called year end. the fiscal year ends at the end of this month, so a couple of days. and even though many bank of japan officials say it's not going to make a difference this time, the repatriation trades, they thing it's one of the reasons they're doing better. carl, back to you. >> rick santelli in chicago. there was breaking news on conan o'brien's tbs talk show last night. >> as of 0900 mountain time, paramount pictures and mooirks ronald joseph aaron burgundy have come to terms on a sequel to "anchorman." >> who knew. ronald joseph aaron burgundy. there will now be a sequel to "anchorman: legend of ron burgundy." the flute solo, jim, went on and on and on last night. >> just a fabulous movie, right? inspired a lot of people. >> there's a seed of truth in everything he does. >> absolutely. >> trust me, we know. >> stay classy. ja coming up next, where the profits are. cramer will show you the way. take a look once more at u.s. futures. it does look like a lower open. big day for ipos. stay tuned. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ it is time for jim cramer's mad dash to the open. we king it off with zynga. the market was putting pressure on the shares. >> i understand that the underwriters were very cherry in who they gave it out to. mostly mutual funds. not a lot of hedge funds in it. there were a lot of funds shorting it. maybe zynga is a little better than we think. >> so we're seeing it trade slightly higher. you're also watching shiefrs to tall, beleaguered by the spills of gas in the north sea. >> the more i read about it, the more i read that they're not anywhere near solving this, and this could be very dangerous. i'm talking about a gas leak. maybe you drill another well? remember they're more green over there than we are. maybe total is in the penalty box for some time. >> there are analyst reports outlining potential damage and it could reach into the tens of billions. remember bp. you didn't want to own the shares at that time when it was too great, but it was -- it proved to be one of the greatest trades if you were willing to get into bp when the oil was released on the recovery. >> but as you said, there was a price drop to the 40s, then the 30s. >> yes, exactly. >> we have to watch for that. with the oil stocks are just terrible here. >> terrible. >> so you're bucking a trend here. look, there was no -- there was no leak here, all right? there was no league when we got to this point. there we go. >> let's do draw. now that is so low and yet everything was great at total. so i doubt that we -- i bet we visit that level before we get to -- >> oh, this level. >> we want to quickly touch on shares of whole foods. we brought this up because of annie's spectacular ipo. the organic foods also the same industry. >> i think this is one of those stories where you start to get the ultimate expansion. earnings are going up but you're paying more and more. if only because there's such a zest for natural foods out there. so and think people feel this is the anticancer seal of approval versus the pink slime beef we keep reading about. i would think whole foods if it d dip. >> the pink slime has been used for decades. it doesn't sound good. >> they have stressed the fact that their -- you know what's in their beef. i thank i should start a gigantic ad campaign that says we do not serve pink slime and their stock could go higher. >> on that note, carl, over to you. >> we will get the opening bell when "squawk on the street" returns in just a moment. [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. you're watching "squawk on the street." opening bell set to open in about 40 seconds. big day for ipos again jim. i've got to ask if your enthusiasm has been sustained even as the new names keep coming to market. >> i do believe these are kind of out of sync with what we've been seeing. i'm sure there are people who will say it's all frothy. but, remember, there haven't been that many deals and they're still being priced under 20. i don't want to give up on this move yet. i still think there's money to be made. >> millennialmedia not doing any, to pardon the pun, but here's a look at the opening bell. a mobile advertising company. and you can hear the cheers. >> well, i don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but i brought game i play with my children -- my kids every day. it's a scramble with friends. a big zynga game. i have never clicked on an ad. i've been able to avoid every single ad. i know i'm not alone because this is what my kids taught me to do. dad, you never have to click on an ad. >> cafe press, a print-on-demand website. we're going the talk to that ceo in a few minutes. >> one of our producers has told me, listen, jim, you ought to take a look at what they're doing. now, they do have a lot of customers. i have not felt the desire to imprint things but apparently it's a much bigger craze than i realized. now, melissa said, jim, when you use the word "craze," is that short term? >> i regard printing a lot of t-shirts and cups as not being sustainable. it is cyclical. we have had a lot of success stories. this is not one of them. >> you didn't use the word "fad," so that means something. >> adding ford to their top pick list, strengthening demand, new product launches, and saying that a 15 million annual rate for the industry can't be ruled out for this year. >> and think that ford is doing a lot of things right but ford is gigantic in europe. and europe as we're seeing this morning, you don't want to be levered to it. so, yes, can it offset the other regions? carl, i say no. it can't. >> baird taking down verizon and at&t. return oven investment capital. as david pointed out yesterday, it's beginning to get a little worrisome. >> i have loved these stocks. verizon, trim verizon. trim it. it's had too big a move and numbers could be coming down. i like verizon, but 35.34 seems to to be able where you could have a better risk reward. goldman. nordstrom. >> i think nordstrom is kind of that high end cohort like coach that people get excited about. here's my problem with that. they seem a little late to me. it's been up a lot. it's not unlike the blair likes ross stores but these have moved. i wish they would have done these earlier. >> a couple stories in the energy space. the president is going to talk about subsidies to oil companies at 10:45. only going to speak for a few moments. we'll see what he says. and exxon is no longer the numb were one publicly traded oil company. the honor now goes to petra china this week. >> i don't like the chinese market, the financials. look, you can argue this is an oil company. baidu's financials look like america's. they did buy xto at the absolute top of this generation in natgas and i've questioned whether natgas -- look at this thing. if you're involved in natgas yoks u'. you're in big trouble. >> they're flaring off the gas. they're burning more than we use in this country. >> you went off on this last night. you said it with as perfect example of taking a would-be positive for this country, right, one of the things we have going for us and it's turning into a big negative. >> thank you for mentioning that. there was a presumption that once we found the natural gas, maybe we'd find other uses other than in power -- power plants and maybe there will be a subsidy. they'll be using it in trucks. big users of diesel fuel, imported. but the president likes solar, he likes wind and i think he likes natgas, but you can't run your cars and trucks on solar and wind. >> let's get over to melissa and bob, standing in the middle of a very, very big crowd. >> this is the ipo that got a lot of the buzz. right now we're looking at 2225. just the amount of time we've been standing here, it's been going up. >> it ended around 22. so the question is do we have a hot ipo market or don't we? i think the evidence is it's warm and getting warmer. maybe it's not hot. here's the important thing. mel lennial price at 13. it was 8 to 11 and they upped it 11 to 13. priced right there at the high end and right now we're looking at 22 to 25. let's look at other ones. cafe press. the range was 16 to 18. priced at 19. we'll see how it opens here. >> in terms of offerings -- >> they're all very small. >> that's the strategy for all of these. so far let's say the strategy has worked. another interest, rex author, right around the corner, they priced it at $18. i looked a moment ago. that was a few moments ago. it looks like that's going to open on the upside. i'll tell you what's an interesting one. this is a warm market getting warmer. priced today at $7. this was a deal, a biotech company that they tried to bring out in january, at the end of january in the 8 to $10 range and they pulled the deal. they postponed it because they couldn't get the price. now all of a sudden it appears on the docket quickly and prices at $7. this is an indication that the deal was going to get done this week. >> we're at 25 to 28 now. so this thing is ticking. >> it's going up. 17 to 19, 22 to 25. now 25 to 28. that's certainly a very good sign. the one irony, the whole foods -- >> right. >> of all the things yesterday, monday everyone was saying whole foods was saying organic foods can be sold profitly. and now they go on valuation and very importantly they said they only have about 2% upside to the price because it's gone up. it's gone from $10 a few years ago to $85 a day essentially. so i think that's the important thing. we're waiting to see. by the way, when you're 2 28, that's a very wide indication. that's not going to open. they're still trying to figure out where the demand is. that fellow over there is standing there, taking orders from the guys who are here yelling at him. these are guys, these fellows are employees. they're yelling at them as well as the other guys. >> yes. they're all around. >> they're on the phone with them standing there saying this is what the orders are. this is very much an ongoing process. elsewhere i think we're seeing the weakness here is the risk off trade here again. we're seeing the australian dollar under pressure, spain under pressure, bank stocks in europe. material stocks in europe all under pressure. so it's the general concerns about slower global growth. even though the gdp numbers today come in line with the expectations, which is not a big surprise. the important thing, i'm more interested in what's going to happen. whether we're going to see some real movement here. so far it's 25 to 28. >> we'll see where this thing narrows and where it actually opens. we'll await that. we're going to be speaking to the ceo of cafe press once that starts to trade. carl back to you. >> rick santelli is in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. it's such a fascinating day. you see germany has better employment numbers but all in all the big story continues to be look at cs and i tracks. a lot of other growth numbers outside that unemployment issue in germany are deteriorating a bit. you see stocks under praern. you know, we're getting back to that mode again and it isn't just how growth may affect our export market to europe or asia because that isn't the biggest issue. it's just the notion of weaker growth in general. you see it showing up in rates and rates overseas with spreads widening. we have a seven-year today, and jobless claims, everybody says that were down. but really they're still above 350. some seasonal revisions. back to you. >> okay. i've got to tell you. behind us, this is a very big deal. when you thing of millennial, what you should be thinking of is this whole shift away from your desk top from your ads to your internet to your cell phone. it's where everybody's going. this is a very exciting deal where a lot of money's going to be made. we've got to follow it all day. this is the sweet spot right now for internet advertising which is obviously taking a lot of share away from print and they have the secret sauce so those that want to have their ads seen on phones, they can do it. >> oil that remains range-bound, natural gas continues to fall sharply. keep in mind we do have the inventory data coming out at 10:30 a.m. eastern time and platt's estimate is for an injection. second week in a row of 43-47 bcf. we're looking at an overhang of natural gas. if we remain on this track for the entire injection season, ben tech energy is saying we could reasonably see a increase. eventually that will mean more production shut-ins and that will signal the bottom of this. that will be for some time. moody's say they expect prices to remain depressed all year, we'll have live data coming for you at 10:30. back to you. >> thank you very much. keeping an eye drks weigon it. today is the day that in 19 999 the dow cracked 10,000 for the first time. >> the hats. the hats. >> i remember that. >> those were the days where you would celebrate and now we're cautious. caution is not unwarranted. people have lost a lot of money. >> it's not a bad thing. we're watching jetblue, trading at $5 a share. they had problems with a pilot and there's also lukt than za. they're down 5% here at the open. >> after this, would you thing if there were two planes going to orlando, one jetblue and one a competitor, would you switch to the competitor? >> if the price differential was narrow, then, yes, i would. >> very telling. >> i would. >> i guess it would be inhuman to say you wouldn't think about it, but if you fly enough, i think you realize how isolated an event this is. >> and that's important. i do thing there are people that said, oh, jetblue has bad publici publicity, i'll go with the other guy. >> we understand we're within minutes, maybe less than a minute away from millennial starting trading and it does bring up another story today, jim, and that is facebook. secondary market beginning to shut down. early may, may 4, may 5. >> this is going to be the deal we're going to talk about. when you go on twitter and people ask you questio questions @jimcramer, there's got to be three or four every four hours. what should i do about facebook? people at home, we don't know what the price is so we can't make a -- well, you should be at facebook. >> is it going to be a game-changer for sentiment in this market? >> i think it will be one of those deals that if they price it right, people will say you know what? i use it. why didn't i buy. i bought apple. a guy wanted to buy me dinner because i recommended apple in '99 an his daughter bought 300 shares. that kind of talk doesn't matter. i want to go back to something melissa talked about. best buy, it's down under 25. this is one of those companies they can't find their way and yet at the same time, boy, loi, to look at the stuff there. i've got a great thing to buy, azon and then i can't lift it. >> that's what i do and unfortunately that's what too many people do. >> bby continues its tear. it's almost 10% in its session. >> look at that. >> $39.25. >> you're talking about 30 multiple? and the same -- geez. hane has gotten established. is bnny a money maker. >> bnny is their logo. would you be buying r.i.m. in advance of tonight? >> no. too many times they said you could buy nokia. they were king in 1999. companies don't have to get their mo joe back. focused on millennial media. this is how i get my news. i don't look at the ads. >> i think it's changing, especially with a full-blown clip on the youtube or "nbc nightly news" site. in some cases you're given fewer choices. you're not always allowed to skip it these days. >> obviously it's the secret. it's the holy grail. google has yet to be able to harness it. google needs to. the resolution is so great, you do turn to it. i see a lot of the companies i like having ads, but my problem is, you know, i'd like to skip the ads always if i can because i don't like ads. i time shift. if you time shift, you don't want adds. >> we're seconds away from the opening of millennial. we'll bring that to you as soon as it opens. we're also opening on prss, that's cafe press again, as bob had mentioned, it's been inching higher as we get closer to the opening. it's 25.28 the last time i was at the post about five minutes ago. >> here we are, up 93% on millennial meade yachlt 25 and change is where it is opening right now up $12. bob pisani, you're at the post. >> yeah, i am. here are some of the employees standing around. here they are. these are all employees. remember, talk with 9 to 11. went to 11 to 13. priced at 13. opened at $25 and the questions was what jim was saying. how do you get them to click on the mow bebile ads. you've got to make it more creative, make it part of the app process. a lot of the executives here and with the company have been shaking hands. newly minted, whatever they are, quite happen. 258 and 26.27. rex door, right next door, i see just opened. melissa, maybe you can check rex thorpe, rxn. i believe it's opened. >> it's up 6%. rex n is up 6% at 19. at 19. so it's up by about a dlafrmt dollar. >> is it a tortoise and hare? >> you mean the bunny? >> i do want to point out these are now expensive stocks. it's not like mm makes a lot of money. m&m mars makes a lot of money. i do think what you said, we find a way to stare at the ad, this is the screen of tomorrow. this is the 18-year-old place to look at ads. let's see co-gat and crest move in. >> interestingly. meanwhile cafepress making its debut, pricing its ipo at $19 a share. and joining us for an exclusive, bob moreno is the ceo cafepress. >> talk about the overall market for personalized markets. we've had a discussion about it being cyclical in nature and a fad if you had a bearish stance on the stock. explain to us the growth opportunities. >> the opportunity to give someone a custom and unique product that really speaks to them at an emotional level, that's not cyclical. >> what are the margins on your products? >> about 43%. the range of products that we offer is over 400 unique items. so to get to that, there's a lot of variation. >> in your view, bob, what is the biggest challenge, keeping them around 43%. can you leverage those margins and widen them if you sell more? if jim buys a dozen t-shirts as opposed to one for instance or if you narrow the range of products that you offer? >> we sure will make enough t-shirts for jim. as a result the technology we have to bring it to market the partnership conte portfolio allows us to have the margin. >> you have vista prinlts, other guys that cocome into the market. please tell us what is proprietary to your dpaep that i'm going to go to you versus the other guy. >> sure. it starts with why are you coming in the first place. when you go to the companies you talk about, a and those are fine companies, you're bringing your own content. >> we have crowd sourced from millions of designers for the last decade, a portfolio of context, and 80% of our sales come from that portfolio. so we're long tail con tenlts so you'll be able to find anything you're passionate about. that's a very different proposition than those other companies. >> what's the mix in terms of a business customer who's looking to do promotional products versus me trying to create a calendar or a mug for my grandparents? >> so the vast majority of our sales is direct to the consumer and when we find that consumer, inevitably someone in that household is a member of a church group, a little league team or a small business and that's how we cross over into that, and that's about 10% of our sales. >> is it as seasonal as a typical retailer. will we be waiting till christmastime to see the measure of your strength? >> we have consumer products notioned to ourselves but we make money in every quarter and we have a great sales in every quarter, but, of course, we have a spike in the fourth quarter. >> what are your expansion plans? how do you sell more to that audience of ones out there? are there partnerships with bricks and mortar to find a bigger audience for your products? >> the brick and mortar retailers are normally those who go to screen printers and pad penners. that's pretty ubiquitous. that's not what we bring. the way we expandemic is provide a custom and unique product. we bring in more content to speak to a larger audience. we bring in more consumer products that heretofore have not been available on a co--creation platform. and finally more destinations to find our products. we've done a lot of partnerships with ecommerce companies and marketers to allow our design community to use their brand in great ways that promote their property. >> well, been, congratulations again. can't wait to see how the strong trades today. thanks for being with us. >> thank you for having me. >> bob marino is ceo of cafe press, opening to the public today. >> we'll bring you the opening trade as soon as we have it. meantime, i think we want to go out to bob pisani once more. it is more than a double right now. it's up by 106%. bob? >> the important thing that's going on, we're all very happy. we hit 26 preside$26.94 for mil. of course, the important thing is we had been debating whether or not we had had a hot ipo market. based on what we see in the opening, i want to get over here by rex northward that's trading at 19 and change, i'd say the market is definitely heating up. i want to see a little bit more about what cafe press is doing and how they're trading right now. melissa, did you get a number on cafe press? >> it's not open yet, bob. >> bottom line, the market is heating up. if it's not hot, it's definitely getting there. i think the fact that they've gone ahead and priced the pharmaceutical company, the biotech company at $7 is an indication things are heating up. >> institutions are beginning to buy and hold these deals. why? because they want an allocation and the next good deal and there are some people who are already gaining facebook who say, you know what? if i put in for this and i keep it, maybe i get my share of facebook. there is kind of a virtual circle going on. i want this hot deal so i can get the next one. >> that's an interesting point. although, to press it a little bit. we've had two days in a row where the ipo has doubled. dow is down, right? we're down five out of seven. durables are an issue, housing claims. how can these two things co-exist? >> i think if you price things tight enough and do them low enough -- >> aur a small sliver of shares that and look at those buzz words. mobile and advertising. google, facebook. >> and macaroni and cheese. >> exactly. fresh macaroni and cheese. here's an economist ad that's just been served up. now let me click on that just to be able to say i finally clicked on a mobile ad. >> it's an important day. >> yeah, yeah. >> we've got much more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. stay tuned. >> announcer: coming up, in a world full of numbers, there are two that cramer can always count on to maintain order. stocks in 60 seconds. "squawk on the street" will be right back. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. time for six in 60, six stocks in 60 seconds. we start with priceline. >> how can they do this today? be careful, people. be careful. >> barclays talking $800. joint global. estimates lower. >> he said, please don't worry about the earnings. be careful, china. >> vf corp. stanley still likes it. >> i have to agree. this is not an expensive stock. >> red hat. >> this is big data. >> cypress. >> i don't know. it seems down here. >> and dick's sporting good. >> nike's okay, under armour is okay. i think this is where you buy the stuff. i like that call. >> more of those names at cnbc.com. what's on "mad money" tonight? >> we've got paychecks. they've got a 4% yield. this man has more of handle on small business employment and whether it's coming back than anybody i know and that's what i listen to. >> we'll see you tonight 6:00 and 11:00. still waiting on cafepress to open. a lot more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of: fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank. like no-fee atms -- all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now, depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. choose control. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. "squawk on the street." i'm diana olick with breaking news. a dramatic number. sales of homes to investors jumped 65% last year from 749 to 1.23 million. this gives you an idea how much half of these purchases were all cash and half were distressed properties as in foreclosureses and short sales. investors clearly looking to hedge against last year's volatile stock market. half of investment buyers said they purchase generally to generate income. nearly half of investment buyers say they were likely to purchase another home within two years. carl? >> those are some fascinating numbers. thank you very much, diana olick in washington. global growth fears sending stocks sliding for their second session today. this, of course, after the big run-up. what is next for the markets? we'll talk with david kelly, chief market strats gist. we'll get his take. >> all eyes on them. what will they have to do to turn the tide? we've got your r.i.m. trade in just a moment. >> we're talking black swans. the dish denld tax hike. will the favorable tax hike disappear at the end of this year and how can investors protect themselves? >>. commodities trading lower but which one continues to broadly outperform? we're naming names. >> meanwhile the economy has expanded while personal income has grew at a far faster pace than previously estimated. gdp increased at the quickest rate since the second quarter of 2010. >> research in moem motion. this will be the first report under new ceo thorss ton hines. they're looking for detiles from hines. r.i.m. can keep selling older models while it prepares for the next major release on the smartphone. >> weakening china concerns to dump material and coal energy shares. peabody, alpha national, all trading lower. no coincidence. stocks in shanghai are sitting at 10-weak lows. the shanghai composite had reported earnings. the average growth is 17% and that's 3.5% below expectations. there's a continuing concern about corporate profits in china, a slowdown there and what is already priced and what might not be -- >> 4% on the shanghai market in two sessions. >> yes. >> it is those mines in the oil company. >> yesterday, the worst day since september. second half profits were down 18% and all the losers, you just mentioned were the ones that led the down ward action yesterday. >> and what is not helping also is the natgas trade. we're going to get inventory numbers today, but natgas clo closing at a decade low. that's puts pressure on the stocks as the coal continues so they're feeling not only the slowdown potentially in china but also the switch here, natural switch to natural gasaway from coal. >> to carl's point, materials they were a leading sector on the rally we've had through the first quarter. if you lose that leadership do, you have to replace it with something else, and if so what will that be to sustain the market? >> it's a fantastic question for our next guest. stocks sliding after this morni morning's economic data. growth in europe will lag behind the u.s. so will all of this impact your investments? david kelly of jpmorgan funds joins us this morning from newton, mass. you can add durables to the list, claim, housing. how much of a shift are you seeing in the data and how much is it making you question whatever model you have for gdp this year? >> not that much of a shift. i think there are a lot of specials. all that's going on is every year they readvise the seasonable factor. what happened in 2009 completely distorted the data so people expected february numbers to be really bad and then they adjusted the seasonals. it's a complicated story but it's basically -- there's no change in the trend. unemployment trends are gradually coming down, just from a slightly higher level. so i think the u.s. academy has got the method, there's nothing to get excited about. >> is this payback from the seasonal tail winlds we got early in the quarter? >> a little bit. there's a weather issue, but on top of that, there are simply technical issues. that's why claims are up. but it doesn't -- you know, the trend is still down. it's jeff they pushed the level up for the last few months, and that's really no surprise. >> david, let me elaborate. jim from deutsche bank is saying over the last decade at this time of year, a lot of the data disappoints p he says that typically you beat expectations november to january, but across a whole series of data, we're now learning that we get disappointed for your the next eight to nine months. this is a big issue that the market is clearly waking up to. >> yeah. and i think you -- it's very difficult to seasonably adjust data. you've got weather issues but you've got -- you know seasonal adjustment models are actually rather stoo pid. they don't realize when you have recessions and that distorts the numbers. i think if you look at the numbers from the survey out of consumer sentiment, it is improving. i think that's going to be a very important factor this year. >> you sound very optimistic data. with that said, would you remain in the sectors that have led us higher in the first quarter or would you rotate out? >> i think for a long-term one, think they even gotten the best potential to benefit from a secular bull market. and i think we probably still are in a secular bull market. we're still cheaper than average. we're much more expensive than average on long-term bonds. people are very conservatively positioned. even in the first quartering people put $90 billion into bond funds and they actually took $3 billion out of equity funds. people are still conservatively positioned. so despite short-term disappointment with some of these economic numbers, i'd still be pretty positive for the rest of the year. >> is he right when he says we might get a 5% correction? >> absolutely. i think we can get a correction at any time. people are nervous. they want to get out for a correction. but for an individual investors, i wouldn't try to time it. if the tide is rising, don't try to catch the correct wave here. >> one last question, david. we're sitting down here at the nyc, second week, really, where we've seen them go sky rocket at least in the early days. is that a precursor to retail participation, going up in a big way? >> it might be. thing people are getting more interested in the stock market. people realize maybe there is some opportunity here and that may be contributing to people who may be looking for areas where they may be making profits in the stock market. you know, hopefully that will come back. >> all right thanks so much, david. >> you're very welcome. >> see you late jeer still to come on the program, bragging inventory with gas industries and sticking with commodities. one in particular remains on fire. caution. searching over 5% in the last week. so is this just a short covering rally? ahead of tomorrow's big data report. we'll tell you,000 get in and we'll soft search next. >> announcer: coming up, r.i.m. announcing earnings after the bell. what can we expect to hear? will the blackberry 10 be just what's needed to get the company back in motion? we'll discuss all this and more when "squawk on the street" returns. that will help save you a, lot of money. i like it.. i like it too. this is product y. this is a much more expensive product. you will not see a lot of savings with this one... harsh. you chose geico and you did not choose their competitor. was this your first car insurance taste test? good morning, mick jagger because we know he watches. the firm raising the price target there from $38 to $62. mosaic's earnings falling 10 cents shy of estimates. the ingredient suffering the effects of lower potash sales. and fossil to replace medco health in the s&p 500 upon completion of medco's acquisition by express scrips, though i guess that was kind of inevitable. the street's beatdown. this being under the new chief executive thorsten hheins. he's got a whole rating on r.i.m. and a $12 price target. mark, it's always great to speak with you. you said you need to see two things. what's the front of either of those two things happening? your view? >> on monetizing the patents, i think it's really about someone like an amazon getting attacked by a competitor. you know, on the opening it up, i was disappointed when the new management team stepped in. thorsten came in. they talked about more of the same. let's go at it with blackberry 10, let's see if we can make another go at it. it's like nokia. i get the sense any strategic change out of r.i.m. is more of a neck-year event after they give blackberry 10 a look. >> from your perspective mark, what has been your aspect of thorsten heins. i wonder how the conference call is going to be for heins in laying out his vision for the company. >> we got the call and we've been in touch as well with the company. you know, he came out pretty loud and clear. more operational, more efficien efficiencies, maybe streamlining their product line, still staying on doing more of the same. that's kind of the message i expect to get out of him today. it would certainly be ears wide open to hear any sense that he might look at a different strategy. >> mark, we live in a world where personality is increasingly important as we see from tim cook going over to china to meet people in person there. i've met thorsten heins, and i wonder if others will feel he's a man of vision, whether he's got what it takes or if he's simply again deferring to the two founders which may not take us into a new world. >> yeah. i know. it's a good question and it's a good point on personalities and what it takes. look. thorsten is fantastic at execution. he came out of siemens. good operator. i get good feedback, but we're looking for a bit more on the strategic side. >> most acknowledge r.i.m. has many, many challenges ahead. but what could shorten the time frame as to whether the investors stick with the shares. i'm curious from your client base if you're experiencing institutions that are increasingly pulling out of r.i.m. or saying i'm get muchg more skeptical. what is the climate as r.i.m. reports the quarter tonight? >> into the print, think most of the faster type traders are just staying away because it's a deep val yaw-type name and anything can happen on the print. you know, you've got guys leaned up on equal sides. a lot of deep value sniffing around it and folks pointing to the fact they've got a recurring revenue base. not everybody is going to get off of blackberry. their international business has been good. on the other side of it, our view is we did this i.t. survey, is that the clock is ticking, and, you know, unless they -- they're going to lose time if they don't move fast on this strategic change. >> that said, mark, your price target is $12. so you think there's a 10%, 12% decline in the stock from here, even on that value argument you just put forward. you believe the stock should be trading down. >> that's right. our target is really a salvage value type situation. we value the value of the paebts, their ongoing business, cash value and the probability that they, you know, changed their strategy here. >> all right. mark, great to speak with you. mark mckechnie. >> when we come back, americans, listen up. the mega millions jackpot is offering the biggest reward in the game's history. an estimated $500 million. what do your chances look like? 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[ male announcer ] every day we help students earn their bachelor's or master's degree for tomorrow's careers. this is your moment. let nothing stand in your way. devry university, proud to support the education of our u.s. olympic team. the mega millions jackpot now totaling a record $500 million, and with that prize would it pay to buy every combination. we have more. we know you're a numbers guy. so explain this to us. >> well, the question is does it pay to actually invest in the lottery, carl. if you bought every single combination, would it pay off. now, there are 176 million combinations at a dollar each, so that's $176 million. the prize is $500 million. the lump sum is $359 million and after taxes, you're down to about $215 million. so that's a net profit of $39 million, but that's only if there aren't multiple winners. if there's one other winner, you've all of a sudden lost $69 million. if you thing this is crazy, by the way, it's actually been done before. in 1992 an australian group of investors who called their business the international lottery fund bought 5 million combinations of the possible 7 million in the virginia lottery. they did. they won $29 million. now, unfortunately i guess there were 2,500 investors so they came away with 2, $160. by the way, just for the record, if i win, bile at work on monday to clean out my desk. >> and that's it. after that, no more -- >> no, actually that's not true and this is not just a public service announcement. i do love my job and i would continue doing it. >> good. >> wow. >> i like how you yanked that back. >> you're in a hole and you dug yourself out. >> you know me. anything for a joke. >> what would you do? >> i don't know. >> commit now, carl. >> first you have to get yourself a lawyer, right, probably security detail. >> big time. in that newsroom? whoa. >> new phone number. >> new name? >> new name. i mean we know what's -- i mean there's been stories wherein about lottery winners and their lives don't always turn out. >> there's actually the five-year period of time is if there's an average with all this, most -- the most -- most of them have spent their entire money in five years. >> do you know, it is more likely that i end up in the q at the news agent behind the guy who says i want all 76 million combinations. >> we've got breaking news on natgas inventories, and we've been talking black swans amid the run-ups, so will a dividend marked spoil the party. we've got your black swan trade. that's next. >> announcer: want more "squawk" on the street? no problem. e-mail us. follow us at facebook.com/cnbc and get our twitter updates. cnc "squawk" st. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. jo you can see all sectors in negative territory actually led by telecoms and financials today. let's have a look at the breadth of the move as determined by the advanced de-clune. there you go. five to one. over at the nasdaq where we're still waiting for the ipo, three to one. >> all right. we're one hour into trading, so let's get to the "squawk" stories we're talking about. 7:27 on the "worldwide exchange" coast. 10:27 on the east coast. millennial media soaring. annie's up another 7% after yesterday's 89% surge and freddie mac says the average on a 30-year rate mortgage has fallen to a tick below 4% here. we're keeping an eye on prss, p-r-s-s. we'll bring you that trade as we have it. >> 10:45 is what we're expecting in terms of timing. also that's the time the president is going to be speaking about some of these tax subsidies for the oil companies. speaking of oil, let's get to chicago for more on the market's trade moves. you are watching crude trade almost to 104 here. >> you bet. i think crude is most vulnerable right now because crude has been kind of piggybacking on the equity market. the crude has been working up obviously. a lot of them talking about it. you have not seen leadership. that tells you refiners are not going out and stepping up and taking the front end supply. they're saying, look, i'm going to pay, store this and use it later. that's not how a bull market works. you should see more strength in the front end. i think crude is most vulnerable if equities continue this weakness. >> we have inventories that have been bearish. they continue along with reports about an spr release that would involve this country, the uk, maybe france. to you think there's a method to that madness. are there reports out there on purpose? >> i think it's done for political purposes. you know, it tees administration saying, listen, we're trying do something. we feel the pain of the american consumers, things like that. i thunk it's politically motivated more than anything. >> but you don't necessarily think it comes to fruition. >> i suppose it's possible. they've done it before. why wouldn't that do it again and certainly maybe that's why you've about got such a weakness in the front end of the crude spreads the s the idea you may see all of a sudden a ton of inventory coming under the market maybe that's why the spreads are that week. i study the spread to give me a directional bias and it's got to be to to thedown side. >> we know historically when they do release, you get an impact for about four, five, maybe ten days and prieks are offenbach to where they were. >> there's pressure to fill the spr release and there was a drawdown of 30 million last year and it's not been refilled. that could make it price neutral ee sent kmally. >> tres, thank you very much. >> let's go to the nymex. sharon epperson, clearly a focus. >> definitely a focus as we're looking at lower prices here, and we've dropped be e low 220. we did get an increase in natural gas supplies of 57 bcf. 57 bcf. that is greater than the range that analysts were looking for between 43 and 47. but it's not outside of the wire range of all of the analysts' estimates. there were some as high as 77 bcf, calling for an injeksz of that amount. keep in mind as we look at supply levels, 2.5, 2.4 bcf, we're also expecting we're going to see perhaps by the fall, 4.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage. that would be even greater than some of the design capacity that we have in this country. that's what bentek energy is for crafting. so we're continuing watch prices here. we're on the macon contract. we're down almost 10 cents for natural gas in a bigger than expected addition to the storage levels which, of course, were already oversupplied. >> so, sharon, just a quick question. >> sure. >> seeing that the build was pretty much within the range of what was expected, we didn't see a pull forward of injection seasons. so we enter that season, which is what? april through october or so when the inventories tend to build. what are traders saying as to what we could actually hit in terms of the low price on natgas? >> well, we did start the injection season two weeks early. this is the second week. we are waiting to see some -- some traders thought this would perhaps push out some of the week longs -- week shorts, i should say, and we would actually get to a bottom here, but we are not likely to see that, according to the folks at bentek energy. they say, when we see this injection season at the end of it, we could see a o drop even below the $2 level. they're looking for further out toward the fall months but there are some who say we may even see that drop below $2 in the next calendar month, in the month of april because after all we are looking at this may contract that is now approaching where the previous contract was. so it looks like we could get there pretty quickly. >> sharon, quickly -- >> i want to point out we did break below a technical level. we're very close to a key support level for crude and breaking below that, say 1rks03 level. keep your eye on the crude contract as well. >> you let us know when you need to come back on the program. >> i certainly will. >> did you see that the journal was discussing whether natural gas prices could turn negative? >> that they would have to give the gasaway. >> or pay people to take it. >> dennis last night says he sees natgas going 1 something. 1 something. we were lrnlt at decade lows. this is staggering. >> let's turn our attention to dividend jones. the dow jones select dividend index is up about 18%. but you will be aware there's a lost anticipation that as things stand at the moment, the dish dend tax will be hiked next year from 15% to 43.4% unless congress congress steps in. what do you do? joining us now, doug mckay, an investor in dividend stocks. chief investment officer with broad leaf partners. thank you for joining us. let's just rest to one side whether you think we should have a tax rate at that level. at what point do you think people might be sellers as we move further and further toward the election in november or do you not think it's necessarily an issue? >> i don't like anybody's taxes go up, pre fis your comments, but i don't think it's going to be as big an issue. you're paying a 50% tax rate on it. i would think they wow would say am was a pretty darn good investment. i think taxes, dividend questions. i think the fees that you pay for investments are all secondary questions. you don't know until you look at the opportunity. >> really? wouldn't you be tempted to have a conversation about rebalancing toward growth stocks that don't pay a dividend, tech stocks that could get the capital accumulation, you could see it, you wouldn't have to necessarily pay taxes on it until you sold? that would be quite appealing. >> that is. that is. we are a growth investor. i think the best opportunities in the market are for companies that typically aren't paying a lot in the way of dividends, and you can continue to let things grow. overall if it's higher, it's going to incent people to capitalize more. but like i said, i don't want to be extreme about it either way. there's good opportunities on both sides. >> so no mass selling of dividend stocks. >> no. >> that's not on the cards. >> i don't think so. not at all. >> interesting. so where would you direct people at the moment? i thought you would have come in there, carl. what are the best dividend plays as for as you're concerned at the moment? >> you look at total concern potential. companies, you know, think apple just announced a dividend. i think it's great buy. google. chipotle. consumer discretion nair spachls i love ralph lauren. i know you had a segment on him. >> yes. investing in america. >> i think it's america's time to shine on a global scale partly because of what you said about natural gas earlier. i think it's a big boom coming for the united states on a global scale, so. >> there's a disconnect where natural gas is now and actually leveraging that for the economy. you've got to do a lot with infrastructure. you can't place bets on that now, can you? >> well, that's true. i mean the market is a discounting mechanism, but there are already chemical companies that are opening new factories here in the united states for the first time in 10, 20 years. so they're planning for it. >> okay. nice to meet you. good. thank you for coming on the program. doug mckay. thank you. coming up, that ire scrambling to cut back their commodity forecasts as traditional leaders take a hit. but there's one unexpected commodity on fire. we'll explain after this. >> announcer: it's viewer's choice on "squawk on the street." tweet us a stock you want to know more about and why it interests you. send your question to @cnbcsq uaw kst. #9. you some money. that's why you should consider an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. all medicare supplement insurance plans can help pay... some of what medicare doesn't, so you could save... thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses. call now for this free information kit and medicare guide. if you're turning 65 or you're already on medicare... you should know about this card -- it's the only one of its kind endorsed by aarp; see if it's right for you. all medicare supplement plans let you keep your own doctor, or hospital that accepts medicare. there are no networks and no referrals needed. help protect yourself from some of what medicare doesn't pay... and save up to thousands of dollars in potential... out-of-pocket expenses with an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. call this toll-free number on your screen now... for this free information kit, including this... medicare guide and customized rate quote. stock to watch now. ebay initiated with a $43 price target. under armour on youn graded to a neutral. chipotle. price target raised to $442 from 365 at ups. they bleem same store sales will continue to trend higher. take a look at chipotpulte. a strong sale from a hold sale. expecting foreclosure to pick up as the year progresses. >> a strong sell. the whole sector is selling off on this. >> interesting. seen a lot of valuation calls on home builders so far this year, but nothing quite that intense. >> yeah. strong sell. never heard of that before. >> pulte, the third biggest loser on the s&p after best buy and big lots. >> ubs today lowering its gold forecast this year by 18% to 1,608 an ounce, ubs citing continued improve in the economic outlook and materiel erosion and expectations for qe. also take a look at the markets. you were interested in particular in this ubs call. >> i think it's really interesting. they say materiel erosion and quantitative easing expectations and questioning surrounding the durability of the 14-year rate pledge all combine to suggest they've got to lower their targets. i wonder if there ever the big call on gold was based on the assumption they would be if you like excess quantitative easing. it would go too far and therefore if you're downgrading now, is this a vote of confidence on the feds that it's on the money, that it's going do more what it needs? there seems to be a political element within. there was always a political element in the gold corps. don't you think? >> i thing a lot were caught on the wrong side. they are basically acknowledging that for the first quarter gold prices have remaining low for much, much longer than they had expected and the feds pledged to keep rates low through 2014. there's major factor. >> they talk about the u.s. recovery and what the fed is going to do. it's like a relative call on assets is what i got. >> yes, i agree. >> okay. >> we're also waiting for cafepress go public. that was a bit abrupt. as soon as we get any news on that, that's exactly where we're going to go. >> that's good. we're going to talk to kayla. >> carl, they started taking orders at opening. if they get outsized demand for that order, they could push the trading back a few minutes. indications are set behind me. they've been about $21 since the orders have been taken. right now, 21.35. yet another ipo that is priced above the range. cafepress at $19 when the range had been set at $16 to $18 a chair, but this is not exactly a risk trade because remember a lot of these tech companies, because it's venture capital backed doan have debt. they're not highly leveraged. they're very healthy companies. they had $75 million on profit. very solid financial profile as was annie's, and you saw how that traded yesterday. so look at some of the industrial names, some of the high le levered names, but for our indications here, it looks like cafepress is set to open higher. back to you. >> all right. that would be sitting within an existing trend. >> that looks complex. >> that's what they do at the new york stock exchange exsent they don't have it like that here in the u.s. >> why is it taking so stupidly long? a long time to waste. >> straight ahead an interview with j southeast s staley. we'll get his take on business and landscape of m & a. but first rick santelli is working on the next hour of "squawk on the street." rick, what's coming up. >> i'm not sure viewers want to hear about it. did it ever really go away? and treasury rates and obviously the effect ofgs europe and much more. but last but not least, good op eds. i was fascinated by mayor bloomberg. we'll talk about all of that top of the hour. carl, back to you. >> before we do go, i want to give you an update on cafepress which is now open for trading. >> 22.09. or 22 and change. it is a big pop. >> not the biggest leap that we're used to. >> as we're used to in the past two days. >> maybe because the process kind of reduces the premium at the open. >> i don't think so, simon. because the preemous at the moment -- >> i'm joking. >> -- stands. >> i'm joking. >> a lot more "squawk on the street." >> but they're bouncing. clearly they're getting more. >> it's a tough line to draw. figure out how much to provide. we'll talk about it more after this commercial break. don't go away. ♪ welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. second ipo of the morning. cafepress is now open for trading. priced at $19 a share. openet at $21.50. earlier we spoke with ceo bob marino. here's what he had to say. >> we're really a unit of one. that's what stands us apart from anyone else. as a result, the technology we have to bring that to mark and the portfolio we have, that helps us toavoid the margin pressure that many of the other printers have. >> speaking of commodities, one in particular continuing to outperform the rest. cotton performers. is this just a case of short covering or a rally ahead of tomorrow's big u.s. data release. kate kelly has more on that back at hq. good morning, kate. >> good morning, simon. morning. good morning, kate. >> good mortganing, simon, how you. >> i'm worried about cotton. >> cotton has been up a share. it marks the eighth day out of the last ten that cotton was in the green. last week, in fact, it was the only major commodity to close up when there was a lot of red on the screen. now can investors get in on it. some have a concern on supply of cotton stocks. they announced a ban on cotton exports only to second-guess the decision in the same week. the decision is yet unresolved, but cotton buyers have been grabbing up stocks. if you look at the open interest, it peaked march 13 and has since slowed a bit. then there's the usda's cotton planting survey whose results are due out at 8:00 tomorrow morning. delta growers have a lot less acreage than expected for cotton growing in the next season. since other crops can be grown on the same land, there is some variability every year. if that's the case, we should look for a rally in cotton futures in january, guys. >> the gap susis usually at the higher end of that chain. we had this discussion last summer. >> h & m overnight. it does not fit into their margins already. >> here oil prices are lower, falling to low levels. the natural gas plummetting as well. sharon here with more on the outlook of the great energy. sharon? >> reporter: we just broke through a very technical level, 103.40, and this is something traders are watching, and they said we could see $100 a barrel. what's driven prices lower is the talk about strategic oil reserve, the saudis, and the oil embargo situation is looming. the fact is there is plenty of energy here in the u.s., whether we're talking about oil or natural gas supplies. in fact, new research outlines how north america could become the new middle east. we are the fastest growing region in terms of oil and gas, and this comes from the explosion that we're seeing in deepwater, oil sands, shale as well. places like canadian imports are already taking advantage of this. we've talked a lot about the keystone trans-canada pipeline and how controversial it is. they're going to create all kinds of jobs all related to that pipeline, and we can now see pumping $2 million into a project to go into the c-pipeline from pushing oil from oklahoma to the texas coast, and they're also putting money into an illinois project to take oil from the illinois coast to the gulf coast region. and the refiners have closed here along the east coast due to low refining margins. they're shutting down, they're idle. but in the middle of the continent where there's all that supply, there are many refiners who could benefit there, like frontier and tesoro trying to refine all the oil there. look at the down side for crude oil. we're down 103.50. back to you. >> thank you very much. we are watching oil stocks. energy shares overall are weak today once again. take a look ati cafepress. we talked to the ceo is it's catering to that one person, carl, for instance, you who wants to make a calendar from your girls to give to your parents. you order one calendar and that's how they make their money. >> if i don't go to a shutterfly or something else. >> we are waiting for the president to speak about the oil situation in this country. as soon as he comes on, we'll bring that to you. don't go away, we'll be right back. ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh omnipotent of opportunity. you know how to mix business... with business. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. 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"squawk on the street" on a thursday. he's drawing up plans to lift the apollo 11 engines that have sunk into the atlantic ocean. i guess that's all the rage, is going into the ocean these days. this morning we're asking you, if you win the mega million grand prize, what would you use your money to recover? i would recover the nfl's dignity, which is somewhere in the bottom of the atlantic. andrew writes, with the $500 million, i would recover the apple shares of recover my losses of 2008. and daryle says, i would recover the american sense of personal responsibility and love of capitalism. >> very clever. >> i'm hearing 13.88, and below that, back to 13.70. >> we do have some bright spots in today's session. one is hmo stocks, names like wellpoint, humana, aetna. we do have the president speaking in the rose garden, so let's get right to that. >> we have a simple choice to make. they can stand with the big oil companies or they can stand with the american people. right now the biggest oil companies are raking in record profits, profits that go up every time folks pull up into a gas station. but on top of these record profits, oil companies are also getting billions a year. billions a year in taxpayer subsidies. a subsidy they've enjoyed year after year for the last century. think about that. it's like hitting the american people twice. you're already paying a premium at the pump right now. and on top of that, congress, up until this point, has thought it was a good ideao s billions of dollars more in tax dollars to the oil industry. it's not as if these companies can't stand on their own. last year the three biggest oil companies took home more than $80 billion in profits. exxon pocketed nearly $4.7 million every hour. when the price of oil goes up, prices at the pump go up, and so do these company's profits. in fact, one analysis shows that every time gas goes up by a penny, these companies usually pocket another $200 million in profits. meanwhile, these companies pay a lower tax rate than other companies on their investments, pa partly because we're giving them billions in tax subsidies in every year. we all know drilling for oil has to be a key part of our overall energy strategy. we want u.s. oil companies to be doing well. we want them to succeed. that's why under my administration, we've opened up millions of acres of federal lands and waters to oil and gas production. we've quadrupled the number of oil operating rigs to a record high. we've added enough oil and gas pipeline to circle the earth and then some. just yesterday we announced the next step for potential new oil and gas exploration in the atlantic. the fact is we're producing more oil right now than we have in eight years, and we're importing less of it as well. for two years in a row, america has bought less oil from other countries than we produce here at home. for the first time in over a decade. so american oil is booming. the oil industry is doing just fine. with record profits and rising production, i'm not worried about the big oil companies. with high oil prices around the world, they've got more than enough incentive to produce even more oil. that's why i think it's time they got by without more help from taxpayers who already have a tough enough time paying the bills and filling up their gas tank. i think it's curious that some folks in congress were the first to belittle investments in new sources of energy are the ones who are fighting the hardest to maintain these giveaways for the oil companies. instead of taxpayer giveaways to an industry that's never been more profitable, we should be using that money to double down on investments in clean energy technologies that have never been more promising, investments in wind power and solar power and biofuels, investments in electric cars and trucks and energy-efficient homes and buildings. that's the future. that's the only way we're going to break this cycle of high gas prices that happen year after year after year as the economy is growing. the only time you start seeing lower gas prices is when the economy is doing badly. that's not the kind of pattern that we want to be in. we want the economy to be doing well and people to be able to afford their energy costs. and keep in mind, we can't just drill our way out of this problem. as i said, oil production here in the united states is doing very well. and it's been doing even as gas prices are going up. well, the reason is because we use more than 20% of the world's oil but we only have 2% of the world's non-oil reserves. that means we could drill every drop of american oil tomorrow, but we'd still have to buy oil from other countries to make up the difference. we'd still have to depend on other countries to meet our energy needs. and because it's a world market, the fact that we're doing more here in the united states doesn't necessarily help us because even u.s. oil companies, they're selling that oil on a worldwide market. they're not keeping it just for us. and that means that if there's rising demand around the world, then the prices are going to go up. that's not the future that i want for america. i don't want folks like these back here and the folks in front of me to have to pay more at the pump every time there is some unrest in the middle east and oil speculators get nervous about whether there is going to be enough supply. i don't want our kids to be held hostage to events on the other side of the world. i want us to control our own destiny. i want us to forge our own future. that's why, as long as i'm president, america is going to pursue an all of the above energy strategy. which means we will continue developing our oil and gas resources in a robust and responsible way, but it also means that we're going to keep developing more advanced home-grown biofuels, the kinds that are empowering truck fleets across america and the wind and solar power that are in thousands of homes and creating thousands of jobs. we're going to make trucks that get more miles to the gallon so you can fill up every two weeks instead of every week. we're going to make you in charge of your own energy bills. we're going to do all of this by harnessing our most in exhau exhaustible research. that's what's at stake right now. that's the choice that we face, and that's the choice that's facing congress today. they can either vote to spend billions of dollars more in oil subsidies that keep us trapped in the past, or they can vote to end these taxpayer subsidies that aren't needed to boost oil production so that we can invest in the future. it's that simple. as long as i'm president, i'm betting on the future. and as the people i've talked to around the country, including the people who are behind me today, they put their faith in the future as well. that's what we do as americans. that's who we are. we innovate, we discover, we seek new solutions to some of our biggest challenges and ultimately because we stick with it, we succeed. and i believe that we're going to do that again. today the american people are going to be watching congress to see if they have that same faith. thank you very much, everybody. [ applause ] >> that is the president talking about an issue before congress, urging congress to vote to end the billions in taxpayer dollars that are handed out to oil companies every year. the senate is scheduled to vote on such legislation later today. promoting production, obviously, but also saying it's curious that people who are looking to belittle investment in new energy still want subsidies in oil. a lot of people, commjohn commeg this is one marker of politics that has begun. >> pretty much everything that happens in washington from here on out is going to be about 2012 politics. you've got the senate taking up this legislation which reflects the president's priorities. it has no intention of becoming law, just as the republican budget on capitol hill also has no chance of becoming law. both sides positioning themselves, republicans trying to say they're for developing american energy sources, the president is not. also trying to say, therefore, controlling the deficit, curbing entitle entitlements. the president, on the other hand, is saying, i am for a balanced plan. i'm trying to have a strategy, and they're standing with the oil companies which, as you know, carl, is not very popular with the american voters and that's what it's all about. >> why not invest in oil and gas in this country? it's plentiful, almost too plentiful. he talks about zero ways we can put net gas to use. >> he's been talking about net gas, not so much in these remarks today, but the president has tried to make the case that he is, in fact, embracing natural gas and i think the policy reflects that. there are questions, obviously, about the possibility of fracking and some techniques that have concerned some environmentalists, but the president is trying to talk about natural gas and he has in contrast to oil, in contrast to coal, and we saw earlier in the week the regulations from the epa affecting new power plants, requiring them to limit their carbon dioxide production, and the administration made the point very emphatically that natural gas plants meet that standard already. >> thanks for being there on this, john. interesting stuff. the president speaking in the rose garden. john harwith in washington. dissecting a pretty large stance today. >> i think it's $50 price on apple. apple should probably be trading north of $1,000. but i get lots of research every single day, and one report i got was really interesting that i got a couple days ago. it's written by an asset manager to his clients on why they decided not to buy apple. and i've spoken to you for quite some time about, if you're an active manager and you've decided not to buy apple, it's obviously cost you huge relative performance. what i found interesting was it wasn't one of these obtuse letters. it wasn't like, we didn't buy apple and this is why. it actually went through numbers. most analysts think the new ipod will bring lots of money. $10 billion since the introduction of that product. assets and revenues for apple, $550 billion. the level of apple product sales make up 1.5% of the total gdp. what they're basically saying is it means the average gdp in the united states being around $50,000, every person must spend $750 on an apple product and services annually, that means about 325 per citizen would go to apple every day if you assume the historical rate of growth and market capitalization what it is. this was an attempt by a very smart analyst to break down the numbers. not think about the business, not think about the hype, but look at the numbers. when you have parabolic numbers, it's refreshing. we'll have this analyst on this program of tuesday next week to break down this analysis. it's something you don't want to miss, because anybody who has a bioregulation on the stocks can see the numbers. >> yesterday 53% of households have an apple product. he's not saying it can't go up, but he's clearly saying it can't go up as much as it has. >> if you look at historical things like this, he says the numbers just don't seem to make sense right now. also additionally points out some stocks. like if you go back and look at notice kia, sun microsystems, yahoo. those are additional, but apple is not trading at the multiple, either future earnings or past earnings, that those stocks were at the time. but the numbers here that are getting out there by some of these analysts seem to be not in sync with the actual analysis of how they have achieved where they have gotten to this point. >> on a day when tim cook is in china visiting foxconn, that's going to be interesting on tuesday. >> every analyst who is out there who has a birecommendation on the stock, you better watch this. >> rick santelli is over at the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. we're going to go fast on the santelli exchange. if you look at what's going on in europe, yes, it's europe revisited. we all knew it was coming, because printing and ltr owing, that's good for stabilizing. it isn't good for long-term growth. whether you look at the rates for one month in spain and italy, you can see what's going on. it's about funding. we need to monitor that. on the other hand, if you look at boom rates, obviously going the other way. part of the linkage might have to do with op-eds today. if you look at john taylor, the uncertainty, is ben really worried about europe? these are big issues. last but not least, mayor bloomberg. the op-ed in the journal today talking about taxes and deficits. brought up the same thing we had on santelli exchange about a week ago, that when it comes to the president's budget and the notion of taxing those a million or more, you raise what, a little over a billion dollars? that's not a lot of money when you consider that we're spending trillions that we don't have. the reason i cut it short is, on energy, we just heard the president. let me talk to you. come a little bit closer. if i broke my right arm, am i going to pick a fight with the neighbor? no. if i'm two months behind on my mortgage, am i going to go complain to the bank? probably not. but let's see. with gasoline approaching $5 a gallon, isn't this just a supreme time to pick a war with the energy people that are market's eyes in short supply, just like picking fights with china when the world is about ready to go into recession. there is a time and place for everything. and by the way, all these profits exxon is making, the administration doesn't like it. well, what about apple making a billion dollars a week or microsoft. i bet if gm made a billion dollars a week, they wouldn't mind. come on! carl, back to you. >> all great points, rick. it's unbelievable. we'll see in you a few minutes, rick santelli. when we come back, jes stanley is here for an exclusive interview. he's going to talk about how j.p. morgan makes its money for the first time. back in a few minutes. financial heavyweight j.p. morgan detailing its trading revenue for the first time ever. our mary thompson is live at headquarters with an ex clus siff interview. >> good morning, carl. we are speaking with jes stanley, who is ceo of j.p. morgan. thanks for joining us. >> appreciate it. >> i want to look back on something you did in february on investor day. that is basically when you pulled back the curtain on something a lot of people don't know about on wall street. essentially what you did is you detailed how j.p. morgan generates 70% of its trading revenue. why did you do this? >> you know, the banks need to increase their transparency. there are a lot of issues being discussed by journalists, by regulators, by academics and by clients as to what does j.p. morgan do and how do they make their money? we believe that projecting to our clients, what is it that drives the banks, where do we make our money is very important. so the transparency we wanted to project to the market is clarify how a bank like j.p. morgan runs. >> people said, they must also be trying to reach the regulators because at this time volcan is run by regulators. what kind of message were you trying to convey to them? >> 70% of our revenues is in simple instruments like debt securities, treasuries, mortgages, 5,000 korpcorporates around the world. this is a business, this is a franchise business, and that is something we want to reflect to all the constituencies that join j.p. morgan. >> carl? >> hi, jes. >> hi, carl. >> how much clarity can you bring on leverage, whether or not you're willing to go a little bit farther out on a limb than you have been over the past few years? >> you know, the u.s. financial industry has not been as capitalized as it is today, perhaps at any other point in time. i think the level of leverage is at a very comfortable degree across the u.s. financial system, the federal reserve just completed its entire stress test called the ccar, and i think the u.s. financial industry came out very strong against some pretty dramatic stresses that they happened to put the system under. so i think we have a comfortable level of leverage right now, a lot of capital. i think the financial markets should feel pretty secure. >> jes, good morning. it's gary kominski here. we know that jamie donny came out and said nothing should be used at the bank competitively for them. the results of it and the public discussion thereafter, has there been anything done internally in thinking about employees, the way employees leave in terms of -- on something that you're thinking about doing differently as a result of what has happened because of this very public op-ed piece? >> i don't think we've made any changes inside j.p. morgan. for sure all of wall street has a lot of ground to cover in terms of regaining the public's trust and credibility with our clients. and we all need to work on that. i think it's unfortunate what happened. gold m goldman is a great institution. but we at j.p. morgan are going to continue to stay focused on our clients as we have been, and we'll leave it at that. >> jes, we were speaking earlier and you were talking about the notion that they have lost some trust. you said some of what happened, and one of the reasons you're trying to be more transparent with your trading information is because you have lost some business and lost some clients because of this. could you detail a little bit of that, some of the municipalities? >> you know, a big component of what we do are -- in addition to trading, securities and whatnot is we are in the derivative market. the derivative market, when you break it down to its core, are interest rate swaps, companies swapping a floating interest rate payment for a fixed interest rate payment. over 90% of our clients around the world write with j.p. morgan an interest rate swap or a currency swap. explaining what that is and how important it is to our clients is one of the things we tried to achieve on investor day. >> have you lost any revenue because you've lost some clients because of concern of this business? >> it's actually the opposite. as financial assets grow, and financial assets are going to continue to grow, the use of swaps in order for investors to balance their portfolio or for a corporation to hedge a major acquisition is actually going to increase. >> one quick question. i have to wrap here, but i have to ask you, as we're wrapping up the first quarter there were concerns about the trading environment, particularly in equities. is it improving this quarter? >> it's down about 20% from where it was a year ago, fixed income is a little bit higher. but if the economy gains steam, as we all hope it will, and creates jobs, the economic market should pick up. >> jes, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thanks, mary. >> back to you. kicking off a new segment here today on "squawk on the street," we've invited you to tweet us some of the stocks you want to know more about and now we're going to announce those because we're here for you, the viewer. we have a cnbc contribute tore, cramer's right-hand woman, and stephanie, good to have you. >> good to be here. >> steve says las vegas sands. interested in macau market. >> there were only six in macau and only two in singapore and las vegas sands has exposure to both. so really little competition, good demand. and i think at 18 times earnings it's trading at well below it's earnings growth rate. >> is there any worries about how the market works overall? >> absolutely, but i think that's your opportunity, right? las vegas sands is a bit cleaner of a story and 85% of their revenue is tied to the growth story. >> michael tweets, i think adp might be a good play on improving u.s. employment and a decent dividend. what do you think about that? >> i like adp. this company is the largest payment processor and hr outsourcer. the company is a pricing power. pricing power to me is very important. i like this one a lot, and again, it's trading in line with its average, so pretty attractive. >> and a great credit rating, as we all know, as well. jan asks, general interest in home renovation-related stocks, especially home improvement stores. >> there's a lot of ways to play housing, right? the one way we're playing it in the charitable trust is stanley black & decker. 50% of their business is do it yourself and the other 50% is industrial tools and security. you kind of get the one-two punch, housing and manufacturing, which we like. >> please talk about suri. equipment rentals are still in early stages of recovery. >> it's a great story. if you believe the manufacturing environment is improving, which again, we do, these guys will benefit. the interesting wrinkle here is they're buying their number two competitor. so i like that one. >> michael writes, sprint. if their financial situation doesn't improve with the iphone purchase, can i speculate about a buyout speculation? >> i would just say this, you never buy a stock for a takeout, ever. that's a speculation i wouldn't want to get into. i think they're a distant number 3 in the telecom services industry. at least with at&t and verizon, you get the yield. you don't really get the yield with sprint and you got the balance issues. >> stephanie points out black & decker. that is one we pointed out before has actually been a great merger, has found a lot of those so-called synergies, so that's a good one. >> absolutely. >> thanks a lot, stephanie. come back. >> absolutely. if you have a tweet you'd like to tweet us, use the hash tag post 9 and we could take your question next. next on the half time report, wapner has you covered on all the mobile growth concerns. they'll talk vatives, energy, coal and a lot more in just about a half hour's time. meanwhile, the european closes in about 3 minutes. message i've been practicing how to talk like a true chicagoan. switching to geico could save you hundreds of dollars on car insurance... da bears. haha... you people sure do talk funny. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. didn't really pay too much attention to honestly. i came to yountville really because of the french laundry. this is the place i had been looking for all my career. so i decided to plant a bay laurel seedling to commemorate that. as a chef we are always committed to our suppliers... you know those farmers, those foragers, those gardeners, those fishermen... for me it's really about building this extraordinary community. american express is passionate about the same thing. they're one of those partners that i would really rely on to help branch out my business. whether it's finding new customers... or a new location for my next restaurant. once you have strong support around you, then you can do anything. now this town has become a bit of a food metropolis. and that little bay laurel, it provides bay leaves for every one of my restaurants. the customers, tools, and insights to help grow your business. that's the membership effect of american express. busy day in europe as some concerns revisit us once again. a lot of talk about whether or not simon hobbs, the european vacation for the markets, is come to go an end. >> is certainly felt like it over the last hour. we had this quite dramatic dumping of stock right away across the board. let's just take in the european close and then i'll show you in some detail where we are. >> the european markets are closing now. >> so you'll see that it is right across the board. look at some of the figures there and you'll see, for example, germany was down almost 2%. we have pulled back, it's now down 1.7%. let me show you that on the chart for today, some of those key markets. here we've got germany, spain and italy. you'll see the way in which we got this dumping of stock coming through and then a stabilization. that's perhaps as important to mention. i've called around. it appears to be nervousness about what's going to come through tomorrow in spain with the presentation of that budget. obviously you have the general strike today. but it's interesting that the break for what's happening, most of the 35 members of the decks are down, it's very, very broad-based. let me show you specifically, union credit, that had a spending limit down. i'm told by the editor of our italian operation there that this is not actually a union credit story. across the board the banks have taken losses because, of course, they've done so well on the basis of their italian sovereign debt holdings on the way up and now the italian sovereign debt market may be turning around. the italian bonds, there you can see the way in which the yields have begun to spike higher. there is a problem in italy itself, of course, with the italian prime minister being at odds with some of the italian unions, but this has more to do in this instance with concerns about spain. let's have a look at the spanish yields and see what's happening there. again you see the weekly chart. again you see the nervousness coming through. a selloff in the spanish sovereign debt market and that is coming back through to high yields and that's what you're witnessing. the banks, indeed, a lot of hedge funds in the united states and made a lot of money on that rally. the question is, who would buy a ten-year spanish bond now? having said that, though, carl, i spoke to one who said to me, this is brilliantly set up for the spanish to come through tomorrow, present their budget, marry a monty who last weekend was causing all the concern saying, you can send us contagion. he can come out as the italian prime minister with great authority and say, thank you, spanish, you have delivered what was required. that was the bullish view but that's not where the market is moving today. >> it does fly in the face of monty's comments yesterday saying, quote, the crisis is now almost over. >> as we mentioned, his labor union colleagues are not agreeing. he effectively said at the beginning of the week when he was in seoul, if you don't want me to come through with the perfect solution, i'll go ahead and do something else for a living. >> we don't want to change horses at this stage right now. thank you, simon. as simon mentioned, a lot going on in spain. huge strikes taking place there in place of austerity measures. our juliet chatterly is live in madrid with a picture on the ground. julia, hello. >> hi, there. today's strikes hit public transports, schools, hospitals, paralyzed many factories across spain. local media saying tens of thousands of people are taking to the streets ahead of protest plans for later on this evening. the strikes were called by the two largest unions who are saying they're seeing participation in these strikes around 80 to 90%. i guess that's got to be expected. i'm hearing that participation is much lower, around 60%. the striking, though, against tough labor reforms is what we're getting in the government here. it gives them authority to cut wages and fire people if they need to. in a press conference, the union said there needed to be some negotiation on this. the budget minister came out and said, there will be no negotiation. and that's really what we're hearing here on the ground. everything points to the fact that the spanish government are paid to be watching spanish yields, they've seen the widening we've had over the last month, they're determined to regain the credibility of the market. so despite what the prime minister said this week, it looks like the government is going to be very, very austere. the question is, will it be enough to calm the markets, and the economy expand the reforms that are needed? back to you. >> thanks, julia. meantime, our corporate editor gary kominski are telling us how our stocks are compared to bonds. >> i certainly do know stocks against bonds, and if we can take a look at this chart, i think we've got it up here, this is last year, high yield versus es&p. you really can't say that's not a perfect picture. you did see what happened around this time last year. you want to know what should you be following, what should you be looking at. if you're concerned about finding out, does china matter, does europe matter? what i suggest is looking at this every day. take a look at what's happening in the high yield markets. you can follow this because this has been a great early indicator. let me bring in mr. santelli here. rick, you get a lot of the same stuff that i do with tim. is this something you think like i do, something people should be paying attention to over the next couple weeks to try to figure out if the equity market is going to have a correction or reversal? >> you know, i do, and it makes perfect sense if you think about it, because treasury rates are a bit boring. we put those off to the side for a variety of reasons. but everyone out there investing in institutions want as much investment as possible. if they're mildly friendly stocks, the horse pile is in the junk. that's where you'll get your most return. there is that indication value of that. i think especially if you thought the dow was going to test 13,000, i think the hyg would give you a clear downward heads-up, so i'm totally with you, gary. >> nothing is a perfect indicator. if there was such a thing, everybody would know. this is a great indicator. every day you want to look at something, look at this high yield index etf every morning. see where it was versus the close. great thing to pay attention to. >> i know you've liked it for a very long time. you're calling a warmer and warmer ipo market. >> i don't want to call it a hot ipo market because that's when things will start coming out of the woodwork and price it very quickly. it's certainly getting a bit warmer here today. mi mil mil millenial media. straight line right across. rex moore industrial company. this is an interesting one because we're not sure how it's going to do. priced at 18, that was right in the range there. opens at $19.05. bottom line is that's holding up, too, at around $19. $20, look at that, just hit the highs here. that's a good sign. that's an industrial company, not a terribly exciting space. that's something nice to see. cafepress, they priced $19. they've been trading around $21.50. there you go. thank you. exactly $21.50 here and just off the highs here. those are pretty good numbers overall. here's what i'm worried about, gary. not a lot of excitement in the next few days. next week we've got a few reads. you mentioned, of course, the possibility of toys r us later down the road. >> most of the shares have been venture capital firms, the companies themselves raising capital and maybe a refinancing. you haven't seen those big reverse lbos. toys r us is one they tried to bring to the market and they couldn't. if we start to see these sizeable lbos -- >> then you know they're getting hot. let me move on to hmos. it's very hard figuring out where the supreme court is going to go here, and believe me, it's 50-50, but we've hit new highs on several of them. most traders seem to feel there's not going to be severalability. the major mandate is going to stand or fall, so they'll take the whole law and pass it or they're going to throw out the whole law. it's not going to be right in the middle. the bad part for the hmos is if there's severalability. if you require people to stay in these conditions, that's not going to happen. the index is also hitting five-year highs right now. there is some individual reasons these stocks are moving up recently, but it's the supreme court right now. >> tough read. we have to wait a few months to see how they rule. >> that's the sufficient market theory in practice. >> that's right. talk to you later. get back to rick santelli now who is in chicago and has a preview of tomorrow's eda report. rick? >> our guest is from rand financial. tomorrow we're going to be concentrating most on corn, and you want to differentiate between old crop and new crop because you can't put new crop that's not grown yet in your stomach or in storage. it's all about what we need in the here and now. john mcintosh, what do you expect tomorrow? >> the main focus is going to be on the new crop corn and soybean acreage. my focus is on the old crop stocks. five out of the last six stock supports in corn has had limited movement in corn as usg seems to be addicted to playing hide and seek with 300 million bushels of corn. the trade is wrong if it believes the numbers from usg are raw and unfiltered. they are not. they are evaluated from a balance sheet approach. secondly, the usga does not count corn in transit, the pipeline. usga presumes the pipeline is always in constant. it is not. since december, they have been trading at all record highs saying the pipeline is deeply contracted, and therefore, the usga is counting on nonexistent corn. since the pipeline should be about a billion bushels, that's a lot of corn they're making up. for these two reasons, i believe the usga, whatever the numbers tomorrow, is grossly exaggerating the stocks. >> let me stop you there. when john talks about stocks, it means how much corn we have in a pile. measure that pile, that's your stocks. in terms of the usda exactly trying to depict how much there is in terms of rate of demand is really what the game is against traders. your argument is they're not really accurately, and haven't been for months, measuring the pile accurately? >> no. it's part fact and part fiction. >> why don't they give us the raw data? why don't they give us what the numbers are? >> i don't know. it's not their job. >> it's a leap year. did they take that into consideration? >> i have nine separate parts of the balance sheet that the usda overstates the supply and understates -- >> just that one day. how much is that one day? >> 35 million bushels. >> this is a must-see report considering corn right now is trading at the lowest levels of the year. even when it had a $6 handle, i remember when $6 was a pipe dream but we live in different times. back to you. some big developments in the oil market. you don't want to miss that. first, some of the winning and losing stocks from europe's trading day. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speedhertz. welcome back to our half time report. we continue on the best commodity trades for the months ahead. plus, will rimm finally see some redemption? we'll take a look with a top analyst. it's our call of the day. barkley's thinks priceline can hit $800. our traders will give the verdict. back to carl. >> thanks so much, scott. see you in a few minutes. the supreme court considering the legality of the president's health care law. a ruling not expected until june. texas senator kay bailey hutchinson says the law sun constitutional. senator, good to see you this morning. good morning. >> thank you, carl. good to be here. >> quite a few dramatic days of testimony. we'll be talking about this case for a long time no matter how they rule. how do you think they'll come down? what decision do you think they'll give? >> i think all indications are that the justices were very skeptical of the overreach of that mandate and that it looked like they thought you couldn't fix it with a tweak, that everything depended on that individual mandate and otherwise it would be in support of it. that's the indication. however, i will say, carl, i've watched the supreme court for a long time, and you can never tell from the tenor of the questioning what they're thinking. sometimes hostile questions means they're looking for your arguments, sometimes it's the opposite, and you really can't judge it. but it looked to me like the judges were asking the right questions and that they did see the encroachment on freedom as an issue. >> i understand your point about being careful about predicting decisions, but you sound relatively confident that severability is not a possibility, that if the mandate is thrown out, the whole thing is gone. >> i was in the court yesterday, and i felt like the severability issue wouldn't even be close. that most of the justices seemed to be saying, you can't throw out the pay-for, the tax or the fines and keep the services because that would certainly not be congressional intent. so i felt like a pretty sure thing if the mandate is gone that they would probably say start all over. but that's just a guess. >> do you see any danger in a 5-4 decision? do you think the public views the court as inherently political in ways that would be damaging to the court long-term? >> not at all. and i don't think the justices should be thinking about that, the numbers. i think that they have to look at the facts, and i think that severability issue particularly, there is no severability clause. i don't think the justices are going to make one up. i think they will look at the facts, i think they will look at the constitution, the precedents, and make their decision without that political influence. >> let me switch gears quickly before we run out of time, talk about some energy. i know you know the sector well. all these various reports about a potential spr release. what's behind it? does it actually happen this summer? >> oh, i hope not. unless there is a real crisis and we are stopped from getting the oil and gas that we need for the economy of our country and for businesses to function, we shouldn't use the spro. the spro is for real crisis emergencies, and we're not in a crisis emergency. there are so many things we can do to bring down the cost of gas. and that would be to have drilling in the gulf of mexico, which this administration is virtually not doing, and to, for heav heaven's sakes, get the keystone pipeline going. we could create jobs and bring down the cost of gasoline at the pump. we should not be using our emergency reserves for -- because prices are high. we should fix the prices by opening the markets. >> crude at 103, off more than 2 bucks today, senator. appreciate your time. we'll see you next time. >> thank you. >> senator kay bailey hutchinson joining us from d.c. when we come back, diving into best buy's fourth quarter. coming up, thinking about purchasing electronics? warnings is out for a stock in particular. is your stock a best buy? ha, ha, ha, ha. anyway, we'll be right back. taking a look at oil really quickly here. down at 2.10. that is the lowest level since february 17. so whether or not you believe an spr relief is coming, whether you worry about china markets, here and in europe, we'll see if they can keep record pace. >> better for the equity market, that kind of correlation broke down last year, so i'm not sure you can assume one is going to create the other at this point. >> natural gas, 10% low this year as well. >> if you're listening, you should not have been surprised. >> at 216, or almost 217. meanwhile, best buy topping street estimates in its fourth quarter revenue report. missed an $8 million revenue plan that included closing 50 stores. mark lasser is a retail analyst. hi, mark. >> hi, carl, how are you? >> good. i wondered whether or not you maybe wanted them to cut a little bit more. >> we thought there was something like this come ago head of the report. we had outlined the potential for a 20% reduction in big box square footage, which would lead to $500 million in savings. we got less square footage reduction, but we got more savings. so i think that's a push. the question from here is, will what they're doing work? and the answer really remains to be seen. >> you seem skeptical. and the stock did trade high in the early going this morning. obviously a sharp reversal and now one of the worst performers on the s&p. any explaining for that initial optimistic reaction? >> the reason for that is twofold. number one, trends in the fourth quarter deteriorated. they were down only slightly in december and it got worse throughout january and february. and their guidance is suggesting that 2012 is going to be another tough year. so i think all the initial enthusiasm about the restructuring program was more than offset by realizing that the environment still remains very difficult for best buy. >> takeaways for companies that maybe aren't in your universe, but places like amazon, places that sell video games, electronics. what have we learned? >> i think we've learned the desire for electronics has changed very much in the last few years. we're seeing maturing periodic cycles and there is one vendor essentially taking all the oxygen out of the consumer electronics complex, which is apple. those factors are probably going to be continue. we'll see trends of how they've unfolded with shares leading away from the big boxes to the on-line channel. it's a question of whether or not the big box retailers can fight back and win back some of that share. >> it's a tough fight to watch, especially on a day like today. michael, thank you so much. >> thank you, carl. >> michael lasser. analyst ceo is announcing he's planning to recover the apollo 11s at the bottom of the ocean. if you won mega millions, what would you use your $500 million to recover? we'll have those answers in just a few minutes. ll and hurtle us all into space, which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? the market is awfully close to the lows here, although we haven't moved since the beginning of the hour. taking a look at the ipos today, millenial media and cafepress. how would use your mega millions to recover? >> mark writes, i would use it to recover

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