Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20151127

A mix of snow, sleet and flooding hitting a large swath of the northwest and now the great lakes to the Southern Plains could be blanketed by the storm. More in just a bit. A shortened trading week on wall street today. The closing bell is set to ring at 1 00 eastern time today. Dow futures up by 30 points. S p futures up by just over 4 points and the nasdaq is up by 20. Beyond retail theres other stories this morning. Russia looking to retaliate against turkey. Moscow plans to cut economic ties and cancel major investment projects. More from our colleague in russia in about 20 minutes. The e. Coli outbreak has been traced to a tainted celery and onion mix used in it. And a lawsuit raising all kinds of questions about media mogul sumner redstone. Hes described as mentally vacant and prone to uncontrollable crying spells. The woman was chose on the make Health Care Decisions for him if he was not able to until the billionaire removed her in a new agreement in october. Member through a Holding Company red stone controls about 80 of the voting shares in cbs and viacom. It has implications for shareholders. It does. But some of the stuff thats been put in this lawsuit, you have to question this womans motives. I have no doubt about her motives. At the same time, he hasnt been on the Conference Calls the last couple of times and normally he is. Thats raised questions about whats out there. Hes 92. Reading through what this woman is claiming in this lawsuit makes your skin crawl a little bit. Hes 92. He is. 90 is the new 50. If that makes you feel better. 50 is like the new 22. Now to Global Markets, a big sell off in china overnight leaving all of it lower sri, sri joins us now from singapore. Thank you. That was perfect, steve. Lets take a look at these markets because it was the biggest one day percentage loss for the shanghai composite in almost three months. So since the death of the capitulation in late august there was several factors driving on sentiment today. You mentioned the brokerages. They were under heavy selling pressure because the regulators are investigating some of the big ones for suspected security infringements. Now the other factor here is relating to the leverage. Its still in the system. A lot of it has been shaking out but the regulators are trying to shake out more from the system so theyre urging the brokerages to stop financing transactions using otc swat contracts. So again, theyre trying to shake out the leverage from the system and remember that excess leverage has given rise to a lot of volatility. Were going to see more ipo activity next week. So thats going to deprive a lot of liquidity away from what you see behind me. The other factor is that the macro environment continues to look sluggish. Theyre down in october for the fifth straight month. So does this picture continue next week is the big question. Do you remember, we got data. We got activity numbers. Both the official and from the private forecasters so that will be a very important test of market confidence. The imf is formally expected to introduce and elude the yuan into their basket of currencies. One thing i can tell you is that the yuan will remain under depreciation pressure because of the macroeconomic environment. Back to you. Thank you. Well talk more about the yuan being added to the stra teejing drawing rights. Well hear more about that later this morning. But lets take a look at the breerd markets this morning. U. S. Equity futures are higher this morning. The early trading in european markets, it looks like theres fractional advancements. The biggest gains coming from italy. The ftse is the one decliner here but its only down by about. 1 . Check out oil prices this morning. Wednesday youre looking at wti above 43. This morning giving back more than 2. 3 . All the way down the dollar to 42. 3 for wti. Also take a look at whats been happening in the bond market. At this point, youll see that the yield down once again to 2. 211 . So much for that. Right. Well see what happen with this fed decision and whats going on. We have continued to see the longer term rates go down even with the first rate hike in over seven years. Take a look at the currency markets this morning. Dollar is up against the euro. Below 106 again at 105. 88. Traveling to europe any time soon . No. Dollar is down against the yen at 12259 and gold prices look down just about 6. To 1,064. 30 an ounce. Big theme of the morning. What else . On a black friday, its retail. Morgan joins us from a target in jersey city new jersey, you havent been there all night have you morgan . I have not been here since they opened because they opened last night at 6 00 p. M. And they have been open straight through with no plans to close until 11 00 p. M. Tonight. There are about 1800 target stores throughout the u. S. All of them with the exception of those located in four blue law states pulled all nighters. So this is in keeping with the last few years, the number of retailers kicking it off on thanksgiving and staying open straight through. Walmart, kohls and yc penny all open. Its quite now. More employees than customers and though the store did have a line wrapped around the building last night to be fair and a visit from the ceo as well. Now electronics are among the best selling items. At least at this location. You have the 5 inch led tv on sale for 299 already out of stock at this store. We have also seen some consumers stocking up on xbox ones. They are only in target stores and offered for 50 off with a 60 gift card. So deals atwal mart include a 200 ipadmini 2 and the playstation 4 bundle. Well see how traffic picks up throughout the morning especially since retailers including target have been rolling outdoor buster deals since earlier this week and more aggressively going after lon line shortstops. Target offering free shippings on everything throughout the holiday system. Did you say a 50 inch led for less than 300 dplrs. I did. 249 for a 55 inch led tv. Wow. Best deal in my opinion. Did you get one . I did not because theyre all sold out. But ill not going to lie. Im probably going to walk around and check out the deals myself later today. Thanks morgan. Hoping that strong holiday sales will provide a much needed jolt. The woman that knows everything about retail. Thank you for being here. Thank you for having me. How is it going to be . A descent season but category specific. Its not going to be the season we had in years past. Youll probably get an increase of around 3 to 4 . What we do is we Look Category specific bottoms up. We found that over the last few years if you look bottoms up it tells the whole story. Sporting goods, everything for the home, thats where the action is going to be. A lot of Retail Stocks have just gotten hammered over the last six months almost seeming to discount in something bad. Are those stocks telling us an incorrect story or are they down for a particular reason . If youre not in one of those categories youve had a hard time. We had a very warm seasonal fall selling season. Later labor not. Not selling a lot of coats when 63 degrees today is the high. 33 degrees last year. I have inventory thats building. Consumers will get a great deal. What about the idea that black friday doesnt matter that much. It always matters. Its the historical kick off to the season but the deals are going earlier and earlier. Right after halloween online does make a difference. So we used to look at black friday as incredibly pivotal but it doesnt feel like it is anymore. Well have you back next year. Dont get me wrong. It just doesnt seem that meaningful. Its not what it used to be. Its not the whole kick off. You have people opening on thanksgiving day. This whole push for cyber monday that started a week earlier, week and a half earlier on amazon. Seems to me there will be less of a crush. Less of the sense of urgency that you had in the past. We had black friday on wednesday. You have all the retailers basically pulling earlier and earlier because they want to get their fair share. They have merchandise to move and have to move it quickly. Doesnt help that we dont have a lot of Foreign Tourists here also. Because thats a boost that impacts. Its always the last ten days before christmas that makes the difference. I understand the reason that they need to do this. The reason you need to go earlier as you have to get the shopper in earlier because youll win the market share but are these less profitable sales, forget about the fact that theyre offering 40 off or something, is it worth it to keep offering the discounts and do them so early. More on the apparel side than anyone else and retailers that bought merchandise in order to move its specific margins but were starting off at 40 which is when i was in macys last night and express you name it t deals are there. Fwap is doing 50 plus and maybe 10 extra this morning. Theres great deals out there. More this year than last year . Feels like the deals are starting off at a higher mark down rate than last year. Is it for real good stuff . Or a few things in the back of is it store. Good stuff out there is a great deal. Because they were high exiting the season. High end retailers, you never get a deal. All right. She is with us for the next three hours as all the numbers start to roll in from black friday. Forget about cyber monday. Toys r us is getting a head start on sales during the busiest season of the year launching its early yeriest start ever. What the toy company is calling 8 weeks of cyber week savings. They opened at 5 00 p. M. On thanksgiving day. Joining us is the chairman and ceo of toys r us. We saw the crowds there running in. Thank you for joining us this morning. How have sales been so far . We got off to a good start last night. I happen to be in our store here in times square and we have hines of people down the street when we opened if doors at 5 00. It was a lot of fun. I was stunned to see how many people are out walking around. Are there crowds in the store . Weve had people filter in and out. Ive seen people with large bags of products they purchased. It does my heart good this early in the morning. We were just talking with dana about the sales that are offered and the competitive marketplace thats out there. Do you feel like its a hypercompetitive situation at this point and you really have to offer big sales toerl get people into the stores . Its been very promotional early in the cycle. A lot of great value in terms of price reductions. Across the line competitors we offered a tremendous amount of value. We had a lot of kick off sales as part of our thanksgiving opening. Starting today we have 20 pages full of values across all brands and categories. So we have a lot of people to either come into our stores or visit our website. Whats the hottest ones you have seen in the first week or so of holiday selling. We have a product called pie face which is one of the most fun games ever thats doing very well. We had done a good job last night we sold an enormous number of Cadillac Escalade battery operated small cars for children. Wow. Theyre remote controlled or you sit in them . Sit in them. All things paw patrol. All things sh porks kins. We show you from moose toys we have keith here. Hell sing, hell dance, hes ride around on his little cart. Hes a very interactive toy and you dont have to worry about cleaning any cages can. Its very parent friendly. We have our 2015 holiday doll here. Journey girls is a brand that we offer exclusively at toys r us for 49. 99 and the theme this year is an italian theme and then of course all things star wars. We have seen robust sales on our star wars product. This is our droid. He is remote control. Talks to you, talks back. Lights flashing. It has a light beam you can put on the wall that shows princess lea on your wall. Youre our only hope, right . How much is it. Its 159. 99. Its a very, very complicated toy in terms of what it does but a very easy toy to operate. Cool. I was just going to ask what the hot toys were. Dave, i remember years ago when walmart became the biggest seller of toys but my guess is amazon has been quickly climbing up the ranks too. Do you feel like youre competing more with an amazon or walmart these days . Listen we have major competitors out there but we cant out amazon an amazon or out walmart walmart. Were in this business 365 days a year. Thats what the consumer expects of us and whether its in our bricks and Mortar Stores or web store which over the last few days has seen a significant year on year strike, were out there playing in those areas and offering our toys and values to our customers. How are you . How different is the end of the Holiday Season going to be than the beginning of the Holiday Season . Are the deals going to get better . Its a really interesting thing. A lot of what drives price and deals is inventory levels and you dont want to be in a situation where you have such accelerated sales through value offers early in the period that when you get toward the end that last week before christmas the good news is theres a lot of value but the bad news is everybody is out of stock. So we really watch it on literally an hour to hour basis as we manage price and as we manage Product Availability to make sure that we have enough product to enable our shoppers to be with us and get a great selection up through christmas eve. Thank you for joining us today. We know its a busy weekend for you and we appreciate your time. Youre most welcome. Happy thanksgiving to everybody. I dont know if the r2d2 thing would run my jet fighter. Well done. The retail season is hardly childs play. But first we head to break. Heres a look back at this date in history. Proud of you, son. Ge a manufacturer. Well thats why i dug this out for you. Its your grandpappys hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. It meant a lot to him. Yes, ge makes powerful machines. But ill be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. Ill be changing the way the world works. interrupting you cant pick it up, can you . Go ahead. He cant lift the hammer. Its okay though youre going to change the world. Russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane. Vladimir putin making strong statements following his meeting with french president hollande. Jeff joins us live with more from moscow. Yeah. Interesting developments in this story because we learned in the last hour or so that president erdogan has invited president putin to meet with him in pair risk. Were waiting on the response to that but hollande came here late last night and met with president putin and appeared to get some cooperation on targeting isis terror groups. There will be a deepening of information sharing with the french but president putin clearly still angry and upset about the downing of this russian jet fighter by the Turkish Military and he used the opportunity of the press conference after that meeting last night to say, we gave information to the United Stateslead coalition. Why wasnt that information about the location of our jet shared with the turkish. And if it was, why did the turkish then shoot the jet down . So theres still some Unanswered Questions in this story because the Turkish Military continue to insist they did not know it was a russian aircraft. So president putin suggesting the white house and mr. Obama might like to clarify the situation. Was the information shared with its nato allies and, if not, why was their jet shot out of the sky . Back to you. Beyond that, jeff, what about the issue of so he says more information sharing, et cetera. But the Biggest Issue that the u. S. And france have with russia is the targeting of what the west says are moderate opposition groups. Hence why they were shooting in that particular. Did he give any sense that he would do less of that . Because hes trying to support assad instead . Yeah. This is the key difference of opinion. The president of france came out and said we do have agreement with president putin about sharing information and targeting the right groups but theres still a difference of opinion over the future of syria and the Bashar Al Assad regime because president putin came out and said theres only one force that can win this battle against isis on the ground. The troops belong to the syrian army and the Syrian Army Continues to be the legitimate force in syria that supports the presidency of Bashar Al Assad. So theres still a key difference of opinion here over the future of president assad and i didnt see any narrowing of that gap in that press conference or that meeting that took place last night between president hollande of france and president putin of russia. Theres some suggestion in the papers this morning that the russians have been bombing the turkmen which are a group working along the border there. Do we know anything about this particular plane . Was it going after them on the border there . And were the Turkish Forces protecting them . Yeah. Theres a certain amount of opacity around this story. But given how close this aircraft was to the turkish border, given how close it was one suspects that may have been what it was doing and there have been suggestions that they have targeted this militant group which is in opposition to Bashar Al Assad. So theres still confusion i think about exactly what this aircraft was doing at the time in this space but of course it would fit in with the overall story here that president putin continues to support and cooperate with Bashar Al Assad in syria so at this stage theres no indication that he changed his tack on continuing to support the forces supporting the existing president in syria. So it is a possibility steve that thats indeed what that aircraft was doing in that space. A loft suspicions about that. Thank you, jeff. Lets go to Global Markets now. Investors are getting ready for a jam packed week ahead including an opec meeting and ecb policy decision. Chief investment officer. And cnbc contributor. He is Founding Partner at b. K. Asset management. Let me start with you. Were reaching down into the 105 area on the euro. Is this the highway to parity . It feels like everybody is pressing down. You saw a lot of speculative lows. Theres a lot of support underneath this 105, 104 level. I have been arguing that one of the reasons why the fed will do one and done is because they dont want to see the Dollar Strengthen so far, so fast. But the other thing happening is on the other side of the atlantic, nobody is standing still. The ecb has been aggressive in indicating they will expand qe as much as possible. Theyre probably not going to do it in this meeting but the point being is all the other Central Banks including the swiss bank, getting weaker today. Huge move today. Yeah, everybody is trying to push their currency lower and thats going to force the fed in many ways to not do more than one and done. The currency has been a challenge to u. S. Corporate profits. Do you continue to see them to be challenged by whats happening with currencies right now . You had this translation problem where the weaker euro has translated back into weaker u. S. Dollar. It has. But our expectation is over the next 12 months the dollar is not going to be nearly the headwind it has been over the past 12 months. Its hard to see the magnitude of Dollar Strength Going Forward that weve had in the previous 12 months. So we think the dollar will not be as much of an impact and also historically when you start a fed rate hike cycle the dollar usually weakens after that because of the anticipation ahead of time and that might very well by b the case because by far the huge consensus bet is the dollar gets stronger after the fed increases rates as we expected. We also have a santa claus rally around this time but we just had a rally and dana was talking about how these black friday promotions started so much earlier. Maybe the santa claus rally came early too. Yeah, october took the santa claus rally but i think the glide path will still be up. Just not up dramatically. Its still a favorable time frame to be invested and also you have a lot of active managers, hedge funds, mutual funds that underperformed. They cant afford to be on the sidelines right now. They have to be there participating. Can we bring up the timeframe . We talk about whether or not theres devaluations wars around the world. Its happening. Were all standing around watching it and theyre all communicating that and. Were in a place now where Central Banks have negative rates penalizing savers for Holding Money and doesnt seem to be working. The currency is still trying to weaken the currency further. Have you heard about this two tier deposit thing. Yes. Which is what penalized you more if you have more money in the bank. Exactly. They want to push that money out i have to give them credit though. It seems to be working. Despite the problems with russia and france and Everything Else the data out of europe is showi showing relative up stick. Theyre finally starting to see pick up on once the fed starts hiking rates, the dollar tends to reverse course. It will be especially true if they sort of hike this is going to be a nonconventional rate hike cycle. If its a one and done and theyre going to sit there and wait for a long time, theres two points of view. Goldman sachs said once theyre going to start theyre going to do a full 1 for the whole year. A, theyre not going to do that. Number two, going into an election cycle unlikely that the fed will do anything more than a symbolic rate hike and stay put. I was laughed off the set last time i brought up one and one. It wasnt you but it was like yeah, tweeted about it. You agree with me that we have this 2 or 2. 5 economic growth. The bad thing is its not three or four but its not debt fuelled. Its potentially more sustainable. If hank and michelle are right because this is a one and done or very shallow then it has some legs. You remain optimistic through the end of the year into next year because the fed doesnt have to kill this economy. Theres not enough growth that would normally lead you into the next recession. So we can have a much more elongated expansion. 10 or 12 years. The 90s was a ten year expansion. We can easily see that here. Interest rates lower for longer. You can get better yields in the stock market. That continues to be the play into 2016. We have to go be but give me a date for parity. I think date for parity, theres two ways to play it. Either the market gets momentum driven and drive it to parity or they hold it off here and then we pull around and they have to wait really for the u. S. Virtual cycle to catch up. In other words, u. S. Wages to really begin to grow. Accelerated growth in the u. S. Yes. But the Christmas Party is december 8th. Party. Not parity, but party. A parity party. Id enjoy it. Next week is freak week for geeks as i like to call it. When we come back, well many orthis mornings top stories including retail. The Parent Company owns sachs and lord and Taylor Brands and well hear about how the early shows are going. First lets peek in on the shopping scene around the country right now. This is toys r us in times square. A little quite right now. Of course they were open yesterday at 5 00 p. M. So a lot of people got out even earlier. Youre watching squawk box on cnbc. First in business worldwide. Money down, o and no monthly payments. Dont wait. Get a tablet on us only at tmobile. Can a a subconscious. Mind . A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Its holiday central all morning here on squawk box. Both brands have kicked off their sells well before black friday. Were joined now with an update. Good to have you back this week for an update. So you opened last night at 6 00 p. M. To 2 00 a. M. How did it go . Great. Long lines. Hundreds of people in front of our stores. We reopen again this morning. Black friday is here and now. Its black friday. How sound excited. But how are sales overall . Did they meet expectations . Were pleased. Theres a lot of discussion about is black friday still going . And if you take thursday and friday and combine them, its been growing and growing. This year is no exception. Theres a false dichotomy between growth in the stores and growth on the internet. Were pleased with what we see with people shopping on the internet and were pleased with our stores as well. Is that sacks fifth avenue as well . Its opening at 8 00 a. M. This morning and we were closed yesterday on thanksgiving in saks and we also had a great sale on wednesday for our customers that wanted a calmer event. But this morning we have several additional markdowns across the store in designer areas and other areas that werent on sale this time of the year so i expect a phenomenal day. What are you seeing if terms of saks. Whats different about it this year and hows the Online Business. Tourism say great question. Clearly its even below 1. 06 so clearly theres a decline of International Tourism to gateway cities and thats effected canadians and europeans, russians, brazilians. Theres been a significant decline in tourist traffic in the United States. So our obligation is to focus on our domestic customer and do a better job of servicing that customer and growing with them. Meanwhile as you know, overtime theres been a shift of business where traffic has been declining in stores and theres a huge growth in traffic online and the total can rise as long as you go great like we do with saks fifth avenue and lord and taylor. Were seeing higher conversion rates. So you cant just look at traffic. Thank you for joining us this morning. My pleasure. When we return, fighting terror and keeping the nation safe here at home. Well be talking about the days top geopolitical stories with bill richardson. Thats next right here on cnbc. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Hiim here to tell homeowners that are sixtytwo and older about a great way to live a better retirement. Its called a reverse mortgage. Call right now to receive your free dvd and booklet with no obligation. It answers questions like. How a reverse mortgage works, how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money. And more. Plus, when you call now, youll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, youll learn the benefits of a governmentinsured reverse mortgage. It will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you taxfree cash from the equity in your home and heres the best part. You still own your home. Take control of your retirement today welcome back. Europe remains on high alert following the paris attacks two weeks ago and while the french president hollande continues his Coalition Building tour questions remain over which strategy will work best in the war against isis. Joining us is bill richardson. He also served as u. S. Ambassador to the United Nations under president clinton. Thank you for being here today. Thank you. Nice to be with you. Its good to see you. We obviously have a lot of questions about this and folks at home had questions about hoe how safe we should feel here in the United States. What would you tell people traveling over this holiday . What they should be doing . How they should be feeling about safety here at home. Well, i would say obviously be careful. Report anything suspicious recognize that probably there will be increased security. Sometimes its inconvenient but it has to happen. For those traveling overseas i would say be very careful. Contact the american conciliate and let them know that youre here. Follow the police Law Enforcement. Im in paris right now. Theyre just honoring the victims of the november 13th deadly attack and, you know, france has really rallied behind president holland just as after 911 the American People rallied around the president so i think paris, especially, is going to have the Climate Change talks in two days is really handling the security very efficiency, effectively. I think any tourist in europe and certainly in france feel safe and should feel safe. What does it feel like on the streets there, governor . Its important that we recognize that our Homeland Security and counter terrorism, we have to make sure that we have the tools in our country for screening of refugees and screening of anybody coming in. Safety at airports. I think americans should feel secure. The president s message was a calming and positive one. We have to go on and not let the terrorists disrupt our way of life. Members of 17 of those that died refused to go to the big event in honor of the dead from the killings in paris today and theyre very angry at the brench government because they should have done more to protect the people. Thats why theyre not attending this event today. Because they said Charlie Hebdo happened in january. You had plenty of warnings that something should be done. Are you confident that we have enough in place here to protect the American People . I am confident. I know that its easy to criticize our government, our Law Enforcement and our Homeland Security. Our Police Forces but i think theyre very competent. I think theyre ready here in france, the problem was a failure of intelligence, no question about it but my view is here in france there is support for president holland. I know how they must feel but there is support for very intensive security measures that he has taken here internally and also, i mean, he is blitzing the entire world to get support. France is bombing, theyre doing bombardments. Hes trying to get russians and the british. I think youre seeing more of a coordinated effort on behalf of bombardments against isis and you have to give credit to hollande and the french for doing that. I want to two back to the days where i covered you and you were the energy sector. The Saudi Oil Minister is quoted saying that even if oil goes down to 20 barrel the saudis will not reverse course. Are you surprised at how hardball they have been on their production levels and do you think theyre going to keep to this and continue these plus 10 Million Barrels a day in production even as the Oil Price Remains as low as it is . I think theyll continue he has been consistent. Theyre not going to increase or decrease production. They see the price at 40 although its probably going to go down, especially with so many disruptions, National Security disruptions but, you know, i think the saudis objective is twofold. One they dont want to see iran recover, theyre their mortal enemy and theyre worried about the Gas Development in the United States. They dont want our oil and Gas Development to continue overtaking the saudis in terms of production as we already have. So i think hes going to stick to that and im not surprised. Theyre very market oriented. They want to keep their market share. Opec is not as powerful as it used to be but theyre still Major Players but we have become a major player with oil and Gas Production increasing dramatically in our country. Thank you so much for joining us. Coming up, the state of the american consumer. The head of the National Retail federation joins us with his expectations for the Holiday Season. And thats when squawk box comes right back. Hi watson. Annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. Im turning seven. What did you ask for . A princess. And a pony. You like things that begin with p. I like pink frosting too. Will you have a cake . Yeah. I was too sick to have one last year. The data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. Are you a doctor . No. I help doctors identify cancer treatments. I want to be a doctor someday. I can help with that too. Watson, i like you. Its the season of deep discounting, and we track Consumer Metrics for a living, and the president and ceo of the National Retail federation, doesnt say the national bricks and mortar federation or National Online Retail Federation, but youre the head of the Retail Federation for both saying it doesnt matter much how people buy as long as they buy . A sale is a sale, retail is retail, and so retailers know that at the end of the day it goes to the bottom line, however you get it, and thats how they engage with retailers. Sometimes on line, small screen, on the tablet, online, mobile, or do it in the store, but either industry stand point, hard to think of it before it being significant, and theres substantial investments in real estate, leases, own things, and so when money flows to the on line portion, its got to hurt those who have the biggest assets. Yeah. I think, steve, youre right. Theres no question this caused an evolution in the way people think about realize and the way they invest capital expenditures. Its had a substantial impact, and thats why you see people repurposing real estate, spending more money on digital because thats where customers want to go. As someone who wants to buy stocks, you see the pie as additive, right . Right. Individuals have to make a choice, do i buy a pbrick di mortar or amazon. Com. Looking at the stocks, they took market caps from the traditional retailers. Michelle, then the question is, fuind one thats good at doing this or better at integrating. The stories are how much more traditional people are investing in working on solutions to the digital side. Sure. That was the big stories overnight, how big the numbers were, and, you know, the sense that once upon a time, brick and mortar retailers were closed on thanksgiving and interpret guys were open on thanksgiving. Thats not true anymore. Everyone is open on thanksgiving. I was stunned, quickly, on the appointment, i was stunned when i heard earlier this week that 20 of online sales are controlled by amson. I Just Department realize the market share was that big. They are effectively the walmart of online. Thats why everyone else is investing there because thats where people play. Its back to if its consumer centric, how they want to shop, if thats how, then thats where you have to go. Give us the data. What are you looking for this year and hows it going in. 3. 7 gain over last year in. Gain over last year. Couple years were 2. 7, and average is 2. 5. Much better than average. Weather matter that its going to be, so far, warmer . You know, i think emotionally the weather matters, right, in some parts of the weather, its cool, and on a segment by segment basis, some are affected more by others, and so thats a reality in lots of ceos have been here talking about that already. You heard that. 3. 7 , 137 Million People shopping this weekend. We think its going to be a strong season, and were looking forward to it. Ever been negative . Year over year, 2009 . By. 10 , then comps, roared back, and it settled. And everyone talked about it, and the question marks, a lot of people say, why are consumer fundamentals so good. Well talk about that. Doesnt look like its great. We have to talk about the health of the consumer. Well do that, but the Christmas Music is playing. I love Christmas Music. Happy to hear it. Lets hear a lot of it. The ceo of the everybody National Retail federation. When we come back this morning, news maker of the morning, macys ceo will be joining us live from the retailers flag ship store in Herald Square when we come back. Stay right here, squawk box. You cant predict the market. But through good times and bad. At t. Rowe price. Weve helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Ready, set, shop. Doors open across the country, and the macys ceo has a live update on the army black friday sales. Prepare for a feast of data. Short session today, but next week a all business leading up to jobs friday. Will the markets hang tough ahead of the big reports . Could dropping acid increase productivity . Im starting to feel weird. I think im freaking out. Okay. How lsd may be the new business trip in Silicon Valley. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im becky quick with Michelle Carusocabrera and Steve Leisman, joe and andrew are off. Our guest host today, the ceo of telsy advisory group, and the ceo of jay rogers worldwide enterprises. January is joining us for the show as well. A check of the u. S. Futures ahead of the holiday shortened trading day, closing bell at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time today. Check it out. You see mild advances this morning. Dow futures up by close to 25 points above fair value, and s p up by four, and nasdaq up by 20. This all comes after a big sell off in china overnight. Look at what happened. You can see that the shanghai composite was down by 5 , the move that catches your attention. The hengsend down 2 , and the nikkei closed. 30 . Lets get to michelle, with more of todays top stories. Russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions, and they plan to cut ties and cancel investment projects. A lawsuit raising questions about media mogul, redstone. In a court filing, a girlfriend describes him as mentally vacant, listless, and prone to crying spells. They call it baseless. She chose Health Care Decisions for him if he was not able to until she was removed in october through a Holding Company, redstone controls 80 of the voting shares in cbs and viacom. Apple bought tech firm face shift. They confirm acquisition of the swiss base startup making motion capture technology, 3d Animation Software to copy facial expressions. Some of this technology was used in the star wars trailer, which, by the way, aired a new trailer on thanksgiving. I bought tickets for christmas eve. When does it open in. 18th. Black friday shopping is well underway, meaning retailers kicking off the big sales last night. Courteney reagan, who else, the retail expert of the nation, joining us now from schaumberg, illinois with the update . Reporter thats right. We are here at the Woodfield Mall, welcome to retails super bowl. This is important. It could account for 20 of retailers total holiday sale, and Retail Real Estate asset firm, jll, they say 90 of the retailers report traffic so far is as strong as last year, if not a bit stronger, though you might remember last years black friday weekend was a bit more muted. Per my app newel tradition, i visited walmart and target last night here in the northwest suburbs of chicago at 7 00 p. M. With full parking lots at both very full carts, and shoppers were calm, relative to what youve seen previously on those big thanksgiving opening door door buster specials. The carts full of things Like Electronics and Home Appliances as well as soft goods. We spoke to a number of shoppers here this morning at the Woodfield Mall, and they are in it for the long haul. Take a listen. Here, i have many deals, but some of the deals, i have been shopping in macys, but amazing deals. Its been fun. Well stay here until 9 00, 10 00, pate for babes r us to open, shop there, and then head home. Reporter now, Online Shopping may end uptaking the win for thanksgiving day. Adobe expect sales to turn up 22 over last year. 1. 7 billion for online sales. Top sellers include the pie face game as well as coloring kits, rock n. Royal superstar lime moe, and playstation 4 is a big hit. Theres a long day ahead. Well bring you the latest. Next hour well see you again. Back to you. Thank you. See you again at the top of the next hour. In the meantime, many stores got a jump on the Holiday Season, Opening Doors early on thanksgiving, and me were tailers hope to woo customers in the door today. Joining us from the flag ship location, open since 6 00 p. M. Yesterday, macys ceo, terry lungren, saw you yesterday at the thanksgiving day parade, there last night for the open to rally the troops, and have you gotten any sleep yet . I did, becky. I slept for four hours in the office. I got here i went first, we had app amazing parade, you know, and the one good thing about warm weather is when you have a parade going on, so i think all of our volunteers who are part of the parade were very happy we didnt have rain like last year and snow the year before. The guys that are trying to sell coats would have preferred cooler weather, but thats okay. We had a fantastic parade, and i went home, had a great thanksgiving dinner with 23 of my family and friends and came back here for the opening at 6 00 with the volunteers, and it was unbelievable. I dont know if you have footage for last night we do right now. It was staggering to watch the flow of traffic coming in through Herald Square. I went to roosevelt field, and then i went to queens. I got back to Herald Square at 1 00, hit the wall, took a cat nap, been up since 5 00, so here i am, ready to hit it again today. Terry r y, you mentioned the weather, great for the parade and great to be out, but it is making things difficult, particularly in the northeast this year with the weather being warmer. Can you give us an update how things are going so far . What apparel sales look like . Yeah, starting off with that because theres just no question about it. I have not confirmed this myself, but someone told me yesterday that this was the warmest november in 251 years, so those people say, why talk about weather . Im just saying, 251 years seems like a long time. We have definitely got warmer weather, and that makes it complicated for people who are trying to sell outer wear and cold weather related products through the home, accessories, and the like. Having said that, last night, you know, it was clearly the kickoff to thanksgiving shopping, and we saw it, and not just with the lines, but with the purchasing. Very encouraged people timely not just came out, but came out and bought. It was a combination of the Online Business being very strong. You know, i think macys has the seventh Largest Internet Company today, but the business was strong combined with our store business that thats omnichannel, and thats what it is for us, pleased with not just the traffic, but people buying in the stores and buying cold weather items. Boots, for example, a tough category all yearlong, was finally selling brisky last night. That has to do with value. I was going to say, with value, the last time you spoke with you, you said theres going to be big discounts early. What kind of discounts did you offer so far and if the sales at this point are profitable . Well, you know, at the enof the day, we get rid of inventory. Theres a number of ways to get rid of it, but the best way is to sell at the price you own it at. The second best way is generally to sell it at something less than what you own it at, and third, return it or ship it out. Those the inventorys going to go away. Right now, we are selling it in the cold weather categories, selling less than what we own it at. Thats not just us, but across the board. I said it before, but without question, anyone in the cold weather business is going to have too much inventory. Nobody predicted to be as warm in the Third Quarter or going into the fourth as its been. Like i said, you know, we got people to respond because of values that are so good, which i predicted last time we spoke. They clearly are great values. I have to ask also, terry, earlier this week, you said you think your stock is at a sale price right now too, just looking at macys shares. Have you been buying shares of ma macys if its at a sale price right now . Well, first of all, i do. I mean, this is a company that has had a history of comebacks. In fact somebody once said to me just recently that you guys are in such a great position right now. I said, really . No, really youre in a great position right now because people have hit your stock, you know, they have hit your team and you and so youre in great position about terms of expectations. You can actually far exceed expectations that are out there with a strong recovery, and thats what were trying to do. Everyone is very, very focused on execution. I think i told you, we are a test and learn organization. Were constantly changing, looking for new ideas and new ways to stimulate consumer interest and, again, that combination of what we do, bringing online concepts into the stores, making the whole channel experience working for the consumers, thats what we try to do, and youll see a lot of the ideas come to life, particularly in 2016. I want to make sure i did not misunderstand you, you are buying shares of macys right now too . Yeah, well, weve been buying shares. The company or you personally, terry . Im pretty much loaded up, as you know. I dont sell shares. Everything i had my entire career, i only sell when theres expiration and its 9 years, and i have to sell because they expire. Thats when i sell. Im in good shape as far as Stock Holding is concerned. Terry, we talked about online against bricks and mortar. Easier or more competitive in terms of finding real estate . Are you paying less than leases now to counteract whats beginning on with the on line . No, you know, i dont think thats what happening steve. What you have seen with us is the rationalization of the real estate, and so weve announced that were going to be closing more stores this next year because as the internet, you know, has become so strong for us, consumers are looking at their options, determining where they are going to shop, and they dont have to have that immediate convenience of going to the store next door. Theyll drive a little bit further and know that well deliver to them in a short period of time. I think when you put all the options together, were able to say that we dont need 800 locations across the country. We can have fewer than that. Thats how weve rationalized it. Do you end up selling less to the consumer . In other words, when i go into department store, i can go for this, and i can end up buying that as well. Happens less online. Yeah. But keep in mind, and i know its a key subject Everyone Wants to talk about on line, but, again, im benefitting because were the strong seller at macys. Com and bloomingdales. Com, but 90 of the sales are still sold in bricks. Last year was 92 . Still, the significant amount of inventory sold in the actual stores itself for us and for others, and so that transaction by the way, that will come at 87 , and them 86 , but its still going to be critically important for the brick and mortar sale to take place. I strongly and passionately believe the consumer shops more so this way in the future, that theyll start the journey with the phone, come in, touch inventory, try it on, have the makeup applied by the beauty adviser and make the decision to buy in the store there or go home, buy on the tablet or however they choose. That idea will continue to be the way consumers shop. Question is, will they actually shop with you if they didnt have that interaction of seeing the merchandise, touching merchandise, trying it on with you . Some are satisfied buying it a pure play, but majority of people want interaction of the multitouch experience with the product. Dana . Hi, terry, its dana. Hi, dana. Do you look at the license categories, the best buy of shops, whats the diversification of shops, and whats next . Great example, and i, as ideas that we must continue to do, and evolve forward, what is it that the consumer would like to buy from macys that we dont currently offer in the stores today . How can we do it better . Thats the combination of the ideas through license arrangement, best buy being the latest one weve done, installing ten locations. Were very pleased. I think that they are too with the traffic and locations. Lens crafters, we dont have optical in the stores so adding that idea out to the stores we like very much. Were pleased with our sun glass hut installation, finish line installation, and so all the relationships are just additional reasons for consumers to shop with us, so i like the idea, and im going to continue to look for new ideas of what we can add to the stores to make them more productive, bring more reasons for trips into our stores. Terry, thank you so much for joining us. I know what a busy weekend it is for you, what a busy day, but we appreciate talking to you. Good luck with the rest of the weekend. Thanks very much, becky. Thank you. Lets go over to the retail analyst that we have here, bringing in jan, good morning. Morning, how are you . Good. Been a long day already. I want to do that on four hours sleep on National Television as well as terry did. What do you think hes talking about and how he described macys . Are you more or less optimistic for the season . Fairly optimistic talking about what people are going to spend. We just you saw the 3 preponderate 7 . We got master card at 4. 5 , isi at 6 . The problem is where they are going to spend it, and all those members include restaurants, a lot of stuff thats not apparel. Most of what terry sells and most of what we follow, dana an i, are people who sell apparel. We watch that, and deflation in apparel runs more than 3 this year, so that would be the biggest its run in 13 years. In a period its been con p continuo continuous. If so, you have to sell a heck of a lot of product to get an increase in sales. I think we could see units up 5 this year, but if deflations 3. 1, you are small as far as the growth youre going to get in that side of the business. Theres nothing wrong with the consumer. I think whats wrong is weve got enormous pressure, competitively in retailing, especially apparel retailing, and were seeing all of this pressure from hm, forever 21, and were just going to see this race to the bottom on pricing. Terrys talking about it already, taking the hit for the Fourth Quarter. I spent wednesday in the Woodfield Mall, and across the street, of course, is off price city. Its rack, its home goods, its marshalls all the discounters . All of them. Everything is there. All you have to do is walk across the street to see where the pricing it. That pressures not going to go away. I said for a long time, all the growth in the next five years in retailing is coming online off price, off price online or pry mark. Thats all for five years. Hold that thought. We have jan and dana, a whole retail lollapalooza here. Its extraordinary, but we need a break. Coming up here on squawk box, when the leftovers are done and the black friday weekend is over, the countdown to the jobs report begins. Thats right, next friday is jobs friday. Between now and then, a ton of data. Checking out top concerns for the markets next. As we break, check out the mall of the americas. Oh. How do you feel about that . Squawk box is coming right back. Welcome back, watching the future, and, remember, its a holiday shortened trading day. Markets close at 1 00 p. M. Eastern today. We are looking at green arrows, but they are giving bag gains throughout the morning, dow futures up by 11. 5 points. S p up by two and a half points, and nasdaq up by 18. Even though u. S. Markets are hanging tough in the face of global issues, intentions, next guest says theres things to be worried about. We have our next guest, a cnbc cricketer, are you bear us because of the geopolitical situation, michael . Im worried michelle. Im worried because i think markets have not been able to really find any bad news anywhere. Were still in a psychologically positive stage where we shirk off bad news, but chinas news overnight should have taken markets negative. Down 5 on sort of regulatory investigations. That, to me, strikes me as a big deal. You know, we have not seen markets come down. After paris, up 240 points the monday after paris. We reject bad news, embrace good news, and markets go higher no matter what. Showing the shanghai down 5. 5 nearly, and we cant show the shenzhen, more volatile, at one point, down 7 . They are looking into the Brokerage Firms why the selloff happened. Why on earth would an investigation into Brokerage Firms in china by the Chinese Government lead to selling off here . I dont get it. Right. Right. Well, i think its going to tell you that weve got a less robust situation or environment for Capital Creation in china and things that slow the chinese economy when we looked at china for engine of world growth, concerned that china gdp growth is slowing, never know what the numbers are, but if things are slower in china, not good for the rest of the world thats slowing anyway. This is an additional head wind in china. Another concern, though, is the breath of the market. We did a report last week taking a look at the top 20 performers for the s p 500 this year, up 59 , the top 20, the other 480 stocks in the s p 500 on average down 3 for the year. Youre seeing that leadership kind of narrow, and were not seeing a broad based rally. Now, i think we still have tina, no other alternative to u. S. Stocks, but at some point, the music stops and noise grows with the fed ready to raise rates in china and other things. When the market has bad breath, as we call it, breath of stocks is not moving as much, its a bad sign in the past. Technically, thats something. What do you do . Just buying the big ones . Raising cash right now for fear well see a sell off . Well, i think that you have to try to stay defensive here, and the real temptation, after youve seen markets go up for, you know, six, seven years, and a great rally is to say, i can afford the risk because i have not been penalized or any kind of down time. When the music stops, you want to make sure you have a chair. I think that health care, i think that Consumer Staples are probably pretty good places to be. You got to try to hit them where they aint, so those stocks have not done particularly well. The industrials have not done well. I think i would try to keep my money safe, good dividend stocks. Dont swing for the fences when the breath is narrowing. Got it. Michael, good to see you this morning from florida. Almost as warm here. Happy thanksgiving. Ill send some up. When we come back this morning, dropping acid in the valley. How lsd is the drug of choice for Young Professionals in Silicon Valley. This one is a doo zrzy. You got to hear about it. Squawk box will be right back. Time now for todays aflac trivia question. How many people are expected to shop on cyber monday . The answer when cnbcs squawk box continues. And. Exhale. Aflac and a gentle wavelike motion. Ahhh ahhhhhh. Liberate your spine. Ahhhahhhhhh. Aflac and reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. Yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just one day. Ahh so he had your back . Yep. In just one day, we approve and pay. One day pay, only from aflac. [duck snoring] i built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Welcome back. Is lsd powering the minds of Silicon Valley . Rolling stone has a story about how a growing number of professionals expert with microdoses of acid to help them to work becoming the creativity enhancer of choice. Should you drop acid come on, are we doing this . Becky, you finish it. Should we drop acid at the office . Come on. We want to hear from you. We may read the answer on the show. I have a serious problem with the story. I understand its happening in Silicon Valley, but the way Rolling Stone is reporting this, oh, to be sure, its not great news if you drop acid. Sometimes people die when you do this. Bothered by the tone of the story by the idea that this is okay. Valg lid to talk about. To that point, theres clues, we are journalists, theres a growing number of professionals growing from one to two . Whats the base there . Its only seven paragraphs. Its short. Its not like its a souped reported at this point. Look, its popular enough its a story line in Silicon Valley, the hbo show, talking about this because one of the guys goes out, drops mushrooms, comes up with the new company name they are trying to think of, but, look, be careful, people, young people reading the story thinking, oh, its going to enhance creativity. Its a really, really dangerous path. Thats something wed like to Pay Attention to too. I started college in 1966, this is nothing. [ laughter ] microdoses are for wimps, right . Wow. Coming up, going to washington for reaction to the latest comments from russian president putin, and unwanted guest at the white house for thanksgiving. Yep. Look at the photo there. Now the answer to todays aflac trivia question. How many people are expected to shop on cyber monday . The answer . 79 or potential 183. 8 million unique shoppers. Have completeent you visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. At ts Innovative Solutions connect machines and people. To keep your internet of things insync, in realtime. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. An unwanted guest at the white house causing a stir on thanksgiving. Another fence jumper in the American Flag scaled the north lawn fence before 3 00 p. M. Eastern time yesterday, taken into custody, making it the third person to jump the fence in 2015. Is this is stupid past time . May we shouldnt show these guys when they do it. Because they get on television. Exactly. Russia looking to retaliate against turkey for a war plane with economic sanctions, and putin made strong comments to the United States and others following the meeting with the president of france. Cnbc john harwood has more. Reporter president hollande in paris today honoring the victims of the pairgs attacks a couple weeks ago, but he was meeting with putin, and on the surface, at least, it appears they made progress because putin, after that meeting, said he was ready to cooperate with the u. S. Led coalition and target air strikes at isis, not at the moderate rebel groups that the United States hopes as an alternative to isis and assad. Now, the white house had no official reaction to this announcement by putin, which suggests our wait and see attitude to see whether or not this is going to materialize because there remain fundamental differences between france, the United States, and russia in iran over the fate of assad. The United States and france both say the elimination or departure from power of assad is crucial against the fight against isis because hes at war with isis, and that the longer hes there, the more isis can recruit forces. Russia and iran are both aligned in trying to prop up assad, so we have to wait and see whether or not the political process that secretary state kerry is pursuing produces any Movement Towards departure from power. For the moment, on the surface, that was a positive result from the hollandeputin meeting. Its not much, though, we have the question about assad, and looking at the globe trotting that president hollande has done in weeks, it looks strong and powerful, but, ultimately, i dont think we got far when it comes to russia and whether or not they stop bombing what the west sees as the moderate opposition or the moderate militants and nonisis individuals who are fighting assad at this point. I agree with you, michelle. Look, the key question is, if, in fact, they changed the focus of their air strikes, if they do change them to targeting isis, along with the United States, france, other members of the coalition, we had a commitment from germany yesterday, which was also a positive development, if that happens, that will make the u. S. Effort more robust. Were beginning to have to wait and see if that, in fact, does happen. All right, john, thanks so much. John harwood. Coming up, we go inside the luxury shopping experience, plus, opening the big box retailers, target Opening Doors before shoppers had a chance to digest the thanksgiving meal. We have an update on the retail traffic when jasquawk box returns. Welcome back, see if consumers head to the Big Box Stores like target. Cnbcs joining us from jersey city across the river koucounti the shoppers. How many you got, morgan . Reporter more than earlier today, steve. Not too many people venturing out for the graveyard shift at target, but the foot traffic is picking up a bit right now. This store, like the majority of 1800 targets across the country has been open since 6 00 p. M. Last night. While there was a line around the building ahead of the opening, its been quiet overnight and into the early a. M. Target did release some stats on black friday performance so far, pointing to brisk Online Shopping activity. Thanksgiving day was the companys busiest for online sales ever, preblack friday sales, and jumped 35 from last year as well. So far, electronics are the star, target selling an ipad every second throughout thanksgiving, and apple watches particularly popular in stores. Tvs a draw with the 249 led tv, the top seller, already out of stock at this location, and here, the Electronics Department and the toys section seem to be where shoppers are gravitating the most. A few shoppers i spoeg to this morning say they are here because the online deals they were looking for sold out. Not too terribly busy, but picking up. Expectation is theres more and more people coming through want door as the day goes on. Back to you. Thank you very much. Joining us now for more on another experience, the luxury shopping experience. Craig robins, president and ceo of dacra, developer of miamis design district, some calls the rodeo drive or madison avenue of south florida. Whats going on down there, craig . Are you having the same kind of black friday experience down there as were talking about from target . Well, its an absolutely Beautiful Day in miami. The spectacular, and the design element is different. Its not a place people flock to, but a place where on black friday everyone gets into the holiday spirit, and they begin to think about shopping and what they are going to get for their family and friends, and the design direct is just the ideal setting to do that in. We have ideal weather here too, by the way, a problem for the retailers in florida, nobody buys a winter coat, but in the northeast, thats the big issue at this point. Yes. In the design district, because were not a mall, its a beautiful place to go on a really nice day, and so it goes against the grain of normal shopping. Give us an idea of the stores that are down there and how your business is different from, say, a typical mall, craig. Well, whats really special about the Miami Design District is the best brands in the world are doing these magnificent flag ship stores. For example, theres a 12,000 square foot three level store, first place where they are introducing their collaboration with the apple watch. Its also the first first sam louis crystal store in the United States. They are doing big flag ship stores, special made with complete assortment of their management. Jan . I know your area and i know its a beautiful shopping place and very high end relatively, and weve seen real problems in the luxury area due to the lack of tourist traffic, and i know miamis one of the places that have seen that as the resilient and dropping off in traffic, seen that up here with russian, chinese, and european tourists. What do you see as far as tourist traffic, business, and has that made a difference . Its definitely affecting the miami market. The Miami Design District unique in that were expanding very quickly and the offering is getting bigger and bigger. Last year, we had 13 stores, this year, 40 stores, by 2017, were 120 stores. Our sales are going up, but that doesnt reflect the general market. Craig, great to have you this morning. From beautiful florida, ceo of dacra development. We have not had any hard numbers today. Thats what you guys do. What do you got . I think so far, weve seen the stores yesterday, i was in gap, express, macys, i thought the traffic looked got add opening. You keep numbers . We count. I have checkers all over. I had joe at Dicks Sporting Goods at the native mall, its quiet. Josh is at gap in pennsylvania. He said quiet, but busier last night. Deals are there. Gap has app additional 10 off, they are 50 off, but when stores are open as long as they are, the beginning was busy, slows at night. We have to see what the afternoon looks like. I agree with that. I have people out looking at various places around the country, and have been since 6 00 last night, probably 3 00 actually, but we thought between 6 00 and midnight, there was a 5 lift, larger than we anticipated to see. 5 would be good 6 00 to midnight. Nev overnight, it was strong compared to last year, slowed down a lot, and this morning, its pretty dead about 6 00 in the morning. The lowest period weve seen so far for this shopping area has been 6 00 this morning. Thats when it dropped and seemed to be at the lowest point and started back since then. Right now, id say if you took what we saw between 6 00 p. M. And now, its really good start to the black friday weekend. Harder to judge that, though, with different times . Theres not the crush to measure . Its spread out sales. We dont know whats on line either. One thing we have not seen, i do this friday year after year, i dont see the violence in the people being hurt. I think maybe because theres a method. Knock on wood, folks. Walmart made the explicit move saying the sales were going to be consistent throughout. They are not having door busters every hour. Thats probably a good thing so you dont have the chaos and injuries. Even the lines at stores were not just as long in the opening because they get in there and deals will be there. . If youre considering whether i want to go out with a crush of traffic or order online, people were choosing online. If its orderly, its a little less to keep you away from the stores. Buy on line, pick up in the store, get a 20 higher sales once you come in that way. That place is so crowded, nobody goes there. Weve and a flip between online and in the store, right . The stores really with the door buster stuff, people smashed in the doorway. Now, on line, they do door busters that run for ten minutes, run for an hour, and they come on all day long. Flash sales. They do it, but the stores say its too much risk and hassle. You can only get hurt running to your computer. If you drank too much spiked eggnog, i suppose. The other story today is the situation overseas and concern over security in paris. President obama reassured americans that no credible threat from terrorism currently faces the United States. Malcom nance, former naval office, how to deal with isis and al qaeda. Good to you here. Good morning. So far, weve seen the worldwide response to be more air strikes in syria, more talk about even more security, trying to curtail migration. I dont see a lot of talk about why is it that people who were born and raised in france actually want to go to syria and come back and bomb people around them, muslims around them in the wake of what theyve done. How do you combat that psychology at this point . Any ideas on that . Is that important . Sure. Well, the first thing you have to understand is that weve gone around this narrative that the problem is this thing call radical islam, when, in fact, its an order of magnitude for different. For the fifth time in islamic history, yao dealing with an islamic cult. Its occurred in islam before, but this variant is so veer lant its almost antiislamic. They view the muslim world as the target base. How do you combat that . First, keep the pressure on militarily, and them, of course, you start waging a psychological war, which is deradicalizing people by going after the tenants we know are completely corrupt in their version of their islamic faith, which, again, is not islam. How do you do that . What does that mean . In the old days, you dropped pamphlets from the sky. Well, we do that and the United States does that, however, this mission is not our mission to carry out. This is something that the muslim world has to carry out with our assistance. Their megaphone is not big. I mean, i lived over in abu dhabi the last seven years and hear what they feel in abu dhabi, but here in the United States, we drown out what they believe. You know, 1. 5 billion muslims in the world reject the ideology isis fights on. Listen from over here, its almost as if we believe that thats islam. Its not islam. The saudis and egyptians and jordseniojordanians and other p fact middle east have done counterideology programs, and its incumbent on us now to join forces with them to go after the ideology and call it out for what it is, which is cultism. Theres talk of how societies are doing the opposite, in fact, promoting isis. Well, wahabism is misunderstood. Thats extreme. Theres an extreme branch to it, however, for isis and al qaeda ideology, they view the most orthodox saudi, the most religiously faithful saudi as a raging western liberty to be executed. That shows why isiss mind set is. Theres five pillars of islam. They view it in seven. Two additional ones being worldwide jihad until the end of days and death of anyone who does not agree with them in their open fighters. Isnt that fermented by the exporting of wahabi culture, hatred, and anger thats being fostered in the schools that they have all around the muslim world . Well, no. I mean, you could say that, you know, its based on this line of ideology, but then, again, thats like saying jim jones who killed a thousand people based on methodism or lutheranism. Its not like that. I only worked there for 34 years and killed a lot of these guys. I happen to know that this cult that were dealing with now, bin laden developed the ideology. Weve been fighting this for 30 years. It is nothing like mainstream islam, nothing at all. That what makes them so thats why its completely hard for most people to wrap their heads around it, including wahabi muslims, they dont get it oeeither. Thats interesting, contrary to the narrative we see in the United States when it comes to them. Well have you back, thank you so much. My pleasure, guys. When we return, inside ebays nerve center as bidders, buyers, and sellers prepare for the fridays rush, we investigate. At the top of the hour, thinking of getting a car with the bow in the driveway this Holiday Season . This weekend may be the time to do it. Well tell you why in a bit. Squawk box will be right back. No matter how the markets change. At t. Rowe price. Our disciplined approach remains. Global markets may be uncertain. But you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Welcome back, ebay expects huge sales today and cyber monday. Josh lipton is joining us from ebays war room in san jose, california, Monitoring Sales data. Whats going on, josh . Reporter steve, as they recover from thanksgiving, folks are headed to e bay getting down to the business of shopping. What are they shopping for . The most popular merchandise on e bay right now. We have these hover boards, selfbalancing electric scooters, two of them sell every of 0 seconds right now. This model runs you 260 400. In addition, star wars merchandise is hot selling every nine minutes. Not just the light sabers, but movie posters, star wars luggage, and this toy. This is the hot seller. Runs you about 100. Finally, steve, not just tech and toys, but precious metals. Ebay saying 1 2 million in gold and silver moves every 24 hours right now. This block of silver, for example, runs you 1500. Now, coming up later today on squawk alley, talking to ebays head of north america talking more about this merchandise, what items are the best sellers this Holiday Season, and importantly, how e bay plans to compete with amazon. Thats coming up on squawk alley, stay tuned for that. Guys, back to you. Thank you very much. Josh lipton at ebay headquarters. Thoughts on ebay . The second biggest seller online behind amazon and doing a lot of business right now, but i dont have thoughts on how because you cant see that from what we look at. No shopping bagging. No shopping bag indicators or traffic indicatoring until theres numbers from somebody who tracks online traffic. Market perspective from bruce riches and star wars opens in three weeks, but who is counting . The toys are out in force in retail. A multibillion dollar force. The toy story in the next hour of squawk box. We all need to run. Black friday shoppers hit the mall and Big Box Stores across the america to get the early read on retail sales. Auto sales on hyperdrive. How the black friday weekend could put november sales over the top. A force of retail. All teams, give it everything you got the move star war toys could be the bright spot for the entire shopping galaxy. The third hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box, everyone. This is cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im becky quick with Steve Leisman and Michelle Carusocabrera. Joe and andrew are off today. We are less than 90 minutes from the opening bell on wall street. Weve been watching the futures, slightly higher this morning, and dow futures root now up by 23 points above fair value, and s p futures up 4. 5, and nasdaq up by 21. Steve . Thanks, becky. Among todays top stories, chinese stocks slammed overnight. The countrys regulators went after brokerages again for trading rules. E. Coli involving chicken sal lid was traced to a tainted celery and onion mix used, and 19 people in states have been sick eating it. This raises questions about red stone. In a court filing, a former girlfriend described him as mentally vacant, listless, and prone to uncontrollable crying spells. They call the lawsuit baseless. The woman was chosen by redstone to make Health Care Decisions for him if he was not able to until the billionaire removed her in a new agreement in october. Through a Holding Company it 8e o of the voting shares. Its black friday. Its a huge day for retailers and toy stores, big for car dealers. Phil lebeau has more on that story. Phil . Reporter hey, michelle. At this chevy dealership in lyle, illinois, they will open the door in a couple hours, expecting steady flow of customers, and all the auto makers push for black friday. And this year, look what he put in our driveway. Santa can do that . He sure can, honey. The sales to remember event is here. Youve seen the ads for some time. Most auto makers advertised black friday type sales most month of november, expecting big sales today, and, in fact, this could push pace above 18 million, and whats selling . Trucks and suvs, selling over the six months. They expect double digit gains in sales, and for a number of dealers, they expect the week to be the key to make a strong push to the end of the year. Black friday is an important day, no question about it. We want to get as many people out there. Were advertising, spending more on those two days than we have for the entire rest of the month to get more people out to, you know, finish up the month strong. And they are expecting a strong finish to november. Look at the surge in the sales rate in the United States. First quarter, 16. 6 million was the sales rate, picked up steam in the second quarter, really picking up steam in the Third Quarter, and, guys, right now, h on pace to finish the Fourth Quarter with a sales rate of 18. 2, maybe 18. 3 million, and stocks have not done anything, although theres been strong sales, jp morgan has a note today saying november sales rate likely to be 18. 5 million . Why, black friday weekend is big for the auto makers. Back to you. Phil, when i conditioned to think about retailers offering, traditional retailers offering big discounts for black friday, i figure they mark it up to bring it down. When you are offered 20 off on a car, is that a real 20 off list price . Reporter it is a real 20 off the manufactured suggested retail price. Nobody pays msrp with the exception of niche models, maybe a special edition vehicle you pay that, but nobody ever pays that. Whats interesting is that this year, theyve done a better job in terms of positioning their messaging. In the past, it was, well, combine this incentive with this dealer incentive. This year, its clearer from all the auto makers in terms of this is what you get, you get 2,000 off over 20 offer, whatever it might be, and its easier for the consumer to digest it. Phil, i remember, and i think it was in the last ten years that the Auto Companies decided to get it on black friday. I scoffed at it. I said, no way they are going to sell cars for christmas. Is that becoming reality now . Is black friday becoming a real and serious part of their yearly sales . Reporter it is a very real part of the annual sales, steve. Its not that people are buying cars for christmas or for the holidays. Its that they are taking advantage of most people being off of work today and having more time to go into a showroom and look around. As much as we talk both people doing homework online to see what they want, they want to go in a dealership to look at a vehicle, drive a vehicle around, friday, saturday, sunday, a perfect three day weekend for them, and, yes, this is the beginning of whats become probably the third most important sales part of the year for the auto makers, and thats november and december. They get a huge sales push here. All right. Go ahead. Thanks. I just want to ask jan and dan, does this take money away from traditional retail sales for kris mass . Absolutely. They have been taking shares, home or autos, thats where the dollars are going. Its killing us. Its going to thing other than discretionary retail, and discretionary retail is deflating. The two together is a a big problem for driving the business. So, yeah, i mean, 18 million cars a year, thats a lot of sweaters, man. Or athlete leisure. I was going to buy a sweater, but now im going to buy a car. That doesnt compute. Maybe people do that. Its not hard to get your head around i spent all my money. And, i cant, therefore, buy a sweater. I was on my way to buy a sweater, and look what i got. Speaking to the bigger retail story of the day, and we are standing by in a mall in a chicago suburb. Courtney . Reporter so most of the shoppers we see right now are the millennial shopper, thats been the crowd overnight and Early Morning hours, but the foot traffic is picking up. If history is any indication, well see the families come out once they get their breakfast and morning coffee. A big line outside. Sephora, not offering special deals, but what millennials were after. When it comes to walmart, target, best buy, the best buys were when the door busters started at 6 00 p. M. Last night. Look whats trending on google right now, walmart, black friday flier is the number one trending search. Interestingly, followed by staples black friday and kmart black friday. Heres a look at what some of the shoppers here at the Woodfield Mall tell us this morning. Weve gone out on black friday every year for 20, but now that they open on thanksgiving, we dont come out as early. Its a tradition more than anything. We just get out. Reporter now, many shoppers, of course, did not wait until the weekend to shop. 60 of americans actually began Holiday Shopping before november 10th. Ibm says that online sales on thanksgiving day broke 26 over last year for an average order of 123. 45. When it comes to the social conversations earlier on thursday, macys and walmart took share until amazon took over overnight, and, so far, amazon is the lead conversation this morning on twitter. On facebook, kate spade getting 24 of the conversation when you look at the top 30 public lifestyle figures. Back to you guys. All right. Interesting data point. Thanks, courtenney. Reporter thank you. The next guest, a big investor in credit markets in europe and puerto rico. Joining us now on squawk exclusi exclusive, bruce riches, Founding Partner of the hedge fund, marathon asset management. Thank you for being here. Thank you, becky. Talking about sales at retailers, when you look at the markets, do you see stocks on sale these days . There are. Look at the s p 500, its evenly divided, and they think its google and amazon leading the charts, they are, up over 150 , but stocks in s p up this year and 250 down this year. Unusual. The dispersion is evenly matched. Those that are down the most, of course, are energy, oil and gas, and emp as well as services, and they led the charge lower while some of the, you know, the new Economy Companies are the big performers this year. Does that mean when you look at energy and gas companies, you actually see some begins there . People who rushed in early on got burned by this. One has to understand where the bottom is in the market place. Theres low for long or do we have further declines yet . Bargains we see are not so much in the equity side of the equati equation, but debt side of the equation, combining the senior first lean debt, the equity for many of the companies, at discounted prices to par. The equity has little value add when you look out years from now. The defaults surge, and it runs to accumulative amount at 25 . Do you end up owning up a bunch of oil fields . Oil companies that open the fields. At lower cost base. No consideration for the equity or bonds and senior bank debt. Right. Walk me through what it does to your operating ability and price of oil that the prior owner had to shut it down, and you can operate at once you own that debt becoming equity. Sure. Companies funded their emp, funded their development and exploration in bringing oil and gas out of the ground with equity and debt. Right. Opposed to just equity. They probably shouldnt have put debt in the companies, but they did. The ratio was three times. Well, with the revenue of Oil Companies having crashed because Oil Prices Fall from 100 to 40, its through the floor now. Your deck even out ratios are three, eight, ten, and 12. Its unstaepbustainable. They burn cash to sustain the debt. If they couldnt service the debt, could you without the debt once you own the stuff, can you run it at 30 or 45 . Cheaper, yes you can. Whats the number. Depends on the company, but revenue goes to the debt Service Based on debt of revenue it has. If you wipe out the debt you can keep it open . Exactly. Thats why the saudis are tough. Yes. Our debt our goal is to own the company through the debt. Were not the operators. Were the debt and equity investors. If you own the company, not for buying equity and bonds, but buying the debt and controlling the companies, thats a good inestment. Anything to buy other than venezuelan and puerto rico sovereign debt, theres, you know, developed market sovereign debt, 10 trillion trading at 0 rates. Theres nothing to do there. Right. In terms of the emerging market sovereign debt, there is some opportunity there, but more opportunity in corporate side. Okay. Do you own any venezuelan . No. Hes going to own the country through the debt. No, yields at 30 . Exactly. [ laughter ] 30 , 17 . I mean, it looks juicy, and at the same time they have a willingness a fascination yesterday it was problematic. Willingness to pay, but ecuador defaulted eight times over the supposedly paying in december. Amazing. They will. Yep. Talk about puerto rico. Pouerto ricos an economy with 74 billion in debt, 70 billion gdp. They have the greatest debt to gdp of any municipal. You buying it . Buying puerto rico power authority. They have 9 billion in debt, Electric Company of the country, of the of the region, of puerto rico, of the province. Weve worked out a deal with puerto rico where we, we being all the creditors, accepting a restructuring. Well accept 15 haircut, so you can take 15 out of our principle amount. We accepted that, a five year term out, and the whats the return . We reduced the coupons by significant amount. What is it now . 6, 7, 8 . Decent. Bringing those down. The whole deals worked out. Puerto rico agreed. The creditors agreed. One party has not agreed. The Reinsurance Companies, nbia, assured guarantee. They want the Puerto Ricans to raise the electric rates so they dont have to take a hair cut. Its the greed none of the he hedge funds that you read about often, but the greed of the Reinsurance Companies standing in the way of restructuring puerto rico. The deal is close to being done, but requires tinsurance companis to come to the table to negotiate, which they have not done to date. Bruce, coming off of thanksgiving, and what you said you were thankful for was the veterans and the service to the country. You and your wife started a fund for veterans education. Tell us about that. Sure. The veterans education challenge is on crowd rise. Theres different websites, and this host is crowd rise. We have the veterans education challenge where weve put in 1 million and well match all dollars up to that 1 million in hopes of raising 2 million. This all goes to pay for the education of veterans as they reenter academic life. Everyone thinks the g. I. Bill pays everything, it doesnt. It pays most, but students who are veterans going to the academic life are 6,000 to 8,000 short each year. For half the veterans that are married or come back with children and have to support these dependents, its a difference of staying in school and not staying in school. Unemployment rate in the United States, its 5 , but veterans, its 4050 higher. The key reason is a college education. We put a million aside, putting another million aside to match all money up to a million that comes in. Please, go to crowd rise, veterans education challenge, help our veterans. They keep us safe at home. They risk their lives. Its for the armed forces, army, navy, marines, coast guard. Love that charity. Great seeing you. Coming up, looking for a luxury gift this Holiday Season . Cartier may have bling for you. These pieces of jewelry and find out why we cant touch them, after the break. Watching squawk box on black friday, 2015. Well be right back. 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Together, were building a better california. Welcome back. The weather could be a big factor for the retail scene in parts of the country today saying nothing of Holiday Travel this weekend. The weather channels mike seidel is live from oklahoma, mike . Reporter good morning, steve from Oklahoma City with rain and now sleet, 33 degrees, and wind chills at 20. If youre anywhere in the plain states through the texas oak pan handle, youre dealing with freezing rain, sleet, or rain, and speaking of rain, dallas ft. Worth overnight had yesterday and overnight over 4 inches of rain of the its now their wettest year on record approaching 55 inches in dallas. Interestingly, about half of that fell in may and october. Two very wet months. Here in Oklahoma City and parts west, theres ice storm warnings west of here. Could be up to a half inch of ice knocking out power. In amarillo, snow, sleet, and freezing rain and 14 million folks on the warmer side of the folks, steve, under Flash Flood Watches. This will stick around for days as far as the rain goes, Flash Flood Watch in dallas is until sunday morning. Wondering about traveling back sunday from thanksgiving . The major hubs are fine, east and west coast looks good, new york city, chicago, atlanta, and west coast airports look fine. Theres lingering rain in little rock, memphis, and dallas, but otherwise, a good travel trek home sunday like it was in the earlier part of the week. The storm, steve, the ice, the snow, is not headed to the east coast, thankfully, for the rest of the weekend. Meanwhile, just a lousy day here. Good day to be shopping or home Online Shopping as its cold and miserable here in Oklahoma City. Steve . Thanks, mike. Michelle . Diamonds may be forever as the saying goes, but the jewelry space, not immune to the recent retail rut. Luxury retailer, tiffany, hit by the slumping sales. Talk about cartier, looking to file on the bling, launching a new collection inspired by light and colors of the south of france. Lets bring in the ceo of cartier north america, mercedes, good to have you here. Good morning, thank you, michelle, thank you for asking me to be here. Are you in miami . Youre down the launch. I am in miami, yes. I am in miami. We are launching our first u. S. Debut of the collection that you mentioned, launching in miami next week. We have examples of it right here on the set, so theres a blue chain. Its far away from me, so i cant see very well, but theres a beautiful looks to be diamonds. What are we talking about them retailing for . Well, you have several great emblematic pieces there. The tanzanite and diamond necklace is retailing in the mid 300,000s. Theres an amazing bracelet with opal and carved emerald over 900,000. Wow. Its really beautiful pieces. Very unique. Wow. Thats why we cant touch it. I understand. The dollar this morning . 1. 05 against the euro. Does that you, especially in miami, i got to imagine reliant on overseas tourist trade, does that make you nervous about sales . You know, quite frankly, michelle, our clients shop for value with us, the long term investment. Our pieces are designed with the long term in mind. Either our watches or our jewelry. Our pieces are pieces people purchase for milestones, birthdays, anniversaries, promotions. We design and create with that in mind, so its always something that is available and people are always celebrating milestones, so theres always an opportunity to purchase a cartirgscar cartier luxury item. A big piece of your business European Tourism in the states when you do u. S. Sales . Actually, we dont break that out too often in a public basis, but we have a wide variety of the clients in the u. S. Its wonderfully diverse, large market, and our american clients, themselves, are loyal and dedicated to cartier. The business on the east coast or wide here in the United States . Actually, were wide. Thats whats wonderful. We have 35 boutiques an an ecommerce channel and important boutiques here in miami where i am. Also, of course, on the northeast, but in california and texas and also canada as well. And, mercedes, as you look at jewelry and watches, we heard that better strength in jewelry than watches, what cleollection do you see the most strength . Lately . The high jewelry collections you have in front of you, those are, again, really, really strong pieces, and collections that our clients come looking for. They look for something new and innovative, and they look to build the collection, but also from a best seller standpoint for the holidays, we have the clay, the cartier watch in the studio, and theres more. Thank you so much for joining us from miami this morning. Thank you very much. When we come back, history is repeating itself. This holiday subpoena, its the return of vinyl records, why millennials bring back the lp. Squawk box will be right back. Youre watching squawk box on cnbc. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. History repeats itself with the resurgence of popularity in vinyl records. Kate rogers is joining us now with more. Its coming back. Thats right, steve. Digital world reigns supreme, but vinyl is back in demand. Independent pressing is aiming to manufacture 1 million records this year. Thats going to be capacity. Demand far exceeds that. If we we can run these wed be able to run the presses 24 hours 7 days a week and still not meet demand. Capacity, really the choke point in the vinyl industry right now, and while you hear about the resurgence is theres such a demand compared to what the capacity is. Now the price point is higher, ranging from the high teens up to 40 depending on the artist, for example, the new adele album is 23 in target. And he thinks it may be even Digital Music creating the resurgence in vinyls p popularity. Half the buyers are younger than 25. I really believe digital has helped the comeback of vinyl because digital strips out the tang ability of music. Its just a file. I think the great thing about vinyl is its such a great tangible piece. In 2014, more than 13 million vinyl lps were sold according to the Recording Industry association of america, and the last time sales were that high, guys, in 1989. Wow. Wow. Urban outfitters put out sign records and record players in the front of the stores. Its a big seller. It is. The place we went to, they manufacture vampire weekend, independent artists, but others sell mainstream pop artists. Sounds better. Vinyl sounds better. Thats what everyone says. I was not a believer, but he played it for me, and you can hear the difference. He said its an experience when you listen to it. Just young people or older folks trying to recapture the vinyl they grew up with . Both, but half the buyers are under 25. There is a mix. I think its people who are trying to recapture their youth. Older people have the vinyl. They dont buy it. In my case, i have in the garage, i have to redo in part because when i grew up to the records, i scratched them, and they are not as good as they were, but thats my problem with vinyl is it does not hold up as well. Other than that, they are playing it on these really crummy portable record play everiers like we had in the 60s and 70s before there was good turntables. It cant be a great sound because it may be the greatest vinyl pressing ever, but theres bad record players. There are ones out now much different. The retro trend. Whats more, i asked, do you think when i went to the record pressing plates, are cassettes next . Indy artists give out cassettes when you go to the shows. Next year, 8 tracks. We listened yesterday at my parents house to wax records. Oh, wow. Cool. You guys are saying i have to hold on to the old ties in the cl closet because they are coming back . Maybe not. [ laughter ] coming up, russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions. A live report from russia next. At t and directv are now one. So get ready to laugh here and cry here. Scream over here and freak out over there and maybe go back to laughing here. And crying there. Try not to laugh here though, its rude. And maybe dont cry here, people will get the wrong idea. Get the best of both worlds. Directv at home and 2 wireless lines. From directv and at t. We heard you got a job as a developer its official, i work for ge what . Wow. Yeah okay. Guys, ill be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. Oh sorry, i was trying to put it away. Got it on the cake. So youre going to work on a train . Not on a train. On trains youre not gonna develop stuff anymore . No i am. Do you know what ge is . Assassination attempt of the imprisoned wife, shes safe, hosting a rally when ten shots rang out, and luis was killed, leading member of the venezuelan opposition party, and other news from latin america, when the scandal in brazil could not be bigger, Andre Esteves was arrested this week, cofounding latin americas largest independent investment bank, and hes accused of trying to obstruct the law in a huge corruption probe that weve been telling you for months now on cnbc. Russia looking to retaliate against turkey for downing a war plane by imposing economic sanctions. We are joined live from moscow today. Whats the latest . Reporter well, the latest is that this war of words is continuing here, and in the kremlin behind me, they will be chewing over the latest comments atritted to the turkish president who has apparently encouraged mr. Putin not to play with fire by making allegations that the turks are receiving oil from the Terrorists Group isis. Now, president putin made those suggestions in a meeting with the french president last night, the french president here in moscow to try and encourage greater cooperation in the fight against isis. He also went on to say he believes the americans have evidence that Russian Companies and the syrians have been taking oil from isis, so very undiplomatic language has broken out between these two powers. Meanwhile, the russians continue to say that they are looking at how they may retaliate against the turkish government for the shooting down of their fighter jet, and one of the ways they talked about doing that is perhaps to restrict access to joint projects, slow down those projects, and to start thinking about other economic sanctions that they might put in place here. To top all of this off, while the war of words has been going on, apparently, the president said hes still very happy to meet with the russian president on monday in paris at the cop21 environment summit. Its a tangled web in moscow this evening. Back to you. Geoff, thank you very much. The world on high alert in the fight against terror, and joining us on the terrorism front, we have a senior principle analyst for the middle east and north africa, country risk at ihs. What do you expect in terms of how russia now potentially responds to turkey . I think what we need to watch out for is the fact that were not seeing very effective deplop si, and a small part of Northern Syria is heavily militarized creating a high risk of repeat of the incident that we saw between turkey and russia. The more that these incidents occur, the higher the risk of a broader confrontation. We dont expect a war between the two countries, but we do expect to see more pretty serious incidents that without some sort of serious diplomatic effort carries risk of escalation. Do you hear people on either side deescalating at this point . I feel the rhetoric is at a fevered pitch right now and nobodys backing down. What are the prospects, for example, of the meeting on monday between the turkish and russian president s to perhaps calm things down . This kind of meeting can calm things down. What we need to remember is that a lot of the diplomatic effort is focused pretty much exclusively on syria. Reality, though, that turkey, russia, saudi arabia, and iran are engaged in a large conflict not limited to syria. When we start seeing summits that involve these countries where we start hearing talk about the these powers trying to be zones of influence or trying to come up with a way to respect each others spheres of influence, then we see a sign of deescalation. A serious sign of deescalation. Right now, we are seeing an effort to get the west to side with one party or another, which is not going to get us very far. Well, thats my question. If you see more conflict between turkey and russia as likely, at what point do we have obligations under article 5 in nato to support turkey . Look, the fact that turkeys a nato country and that russia has a Nuclear Capability leads us to a scenario where what we expect is confrontations outside the country easts territories look to events in crimea and syria. Neither is intending on escalating beyond that. I think they both realize the risks. Firas, thank you for joining us. Thank you for having me. Michelle, you need a summit of grownups, actual grownups show up. When you find some, let me know. Nobody is acting in any particular way so many invested interests. Its a mess, like you said, its a mess. Really is a mess. When we come back today, the top story of the morning, the scene from the mall, checking in with the ceo of turnberry, and are the ultra rich out there looking for black friday deals . Find out next. Have completee not conu visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. At ts Innovative Solutions connect machines and people. To keep your internet of things insync, in realtime. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. This bale of hay cannot be controlled. When a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. Faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. Thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. And with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. Chase for business. So you can own it. That is a scene from a mall today on black friday. The shopping is well underway. Lets check in now to see how things are going in florida. Joining us now is jackie, the turn Bury Association and ceo. The retail, hospitality, and Office Divisions including shopping mekkah mall, and thank you for being here today. Thank you for having me. So weve seep a lot of pictures this morning, and after retailers have opened on thanksgiving day, on thanksgiving evening, seems that things this morning have been a little quieter than seen in years past. Is that the situation where you are too . I think the malls pretty busy. Ive. Here since 6 00 this morning, and weve had a lot of customers come through, but it does delude the excitement of black friday because retalers are opening on thursday, so there are shoppers going out on thursday night as well. We still predict a strong day for us. When you say very strong, what are you talking about . Assuming same store sales increases over last year . We do think that we will have same store sale increases over last year. We had a strong year. We had a good tourist base and a good local base, so we think that were going to have a very strong holiday subpoena as well. We heard from some retailers here in manhattan that the stronger dollar has hurt some of the tourism sales that they have been experiencing for several years as the dollar is stronger, fewer tourists coming to the United States and when they are here, they do not buy as much. Have you experienced that where you are . I think that theres definitely certain markets where the tourists are not sending as much, the brazilian market, for example, but we still have those customers in the property, and weve increased our market shares from other tourist areas. We have mexico, for example, argentina, colombia, and we are getting more customers from the northeast, new york. Miami is a more important city culturely, and people want to be here. Okay, jackie, thank you for joining us today. The cochairman and ceo. Our guest host today, two retail experts, and you guys have been sitting here throughout the morning, you two were out yesterday as well. How would wow quantity my things at this point . Basically, what we see out there and people out there right now, american eagle, bath and body works, hollister with the most traffic. The least traffic, least promotions, definitely gap. You got to go through the weekend in order to see how the numbers wrap up, but i dont think anything were seeing now is saying that, oh, its slower than that 3. 5 type of sale s gain we expect in the season. During the commercial break, we listen to her, like, oh, this came in. I have everyone out there. Nordstrom busy in certain area. Game stop busy. Walmart slower than people expected. Steve madden, super busy. The team is out in force, and ill be out after this. Jan . Same thing . Very strong last night 6 00 p. M. To midnight, up 5 from 36 p. M. To midnight. Nobody thought it would be good. Overnight, the business is not that big anyway so thats not changing trajectory, but the point is that 2 30 today is the busiest were ever going to see the stores, and were not going to know that until 2 30 today, but i mean, if i had to be more or less optimistic at the moment, im more optimistic coming into the weekend. Until you see what happens saturday, because you can give back on saturday, people just came out early, its gorgeous. It was nice yesterday. Most of the countries have mild weather today. People can get out. Will they continue to shop saturday . Will we give it back . Last year, we gave it back. So far, its been quite solid. When you say 2 30 today is the best of the weekend or the best of the entire season . Well, it might be the best of the entire season unless 2 30 Super Saturday is, but it will probably be certain the best volume in the stores, in other words, if youre watching, dont go to the store at 2 30 today, theres no parking spaces. Itll be packed because its the heaviest factor load we get all weekend. And them we have the Super Saturday, given that christmas is on friday, saturday before will be busy also and the saturday after christmas given that christmas is on a friday, we should have good numbers then. My moms favorite shopping day of the year, the day after christmas. All right, cool. When we return, the force is strong with us this Holiday Season. Our favorite jeti, we are in a Detroit Store far, far away. Reporter ive gone to the dark side or the dork side . Its a good time to come to toys r us right now, folks, its empty. Last night, they did 60,000 worth of business at the store, more than previous three days. Good Business Year for toys because the force is strong with this one. Yes, even you have never faced such a test. Thats another trailer just leased for the upcoming star wars movie, the toy industry poised for a blockbuster Holiday Season with retail provider mvp group projecting the best increase in toy sales in ten years. Star wars, wealll, its got a lot do with it. Ja jane wells joins us now. Yes, i own this. This is not a prop i borrowed. The power of the force. Well, star wars the movie could potentially rake in 2 billion but hasbro thinks it could raise more. Disney gets 20 . New technology should help speed up the process today. We have our gps up at the front that helps the customers find what theyre looking for. Well have little store maps to help them navigate around the store. We even have apps for smartphones that will help them navigate through the store. Although right now its pretty empty in the store. They did have about 150 people come through last night. Theyre going to have door busters at 7 00, a special express line. I downloaded the app. Apps are becoming as important inside the store as out of it. He said things like swag way or shopkins or drones are pop lo lar, if you dont think star wars is going to be popular, i find it disturbing. This is perhaps one of the most signifying unifying toys we receive in a long time. Its the ability of its crossgeneration that makes its so powerful in terms of driving sale this year. As for toys for grownups, theyre selling a mask but it wont be ready until spring. As for now, platforms for 300 bucks, or for 50 bucks, a darth vader toaster. Impressive. Most impressive. Back to you. Fantastic. Where do we get your jacket . I want one of those. I bought it online at target. Its like about 40 degrees up here in the bay area. Its so freaking cold i actually needed this today. Thank you, jane. Always fantastic. Final thought from our guest host. 4 billion . 5 billion in sales products . Pretty amazing. Its not just toys. Kay jewelers has done a whole line. Really. Yeah. So when i was in kohls on wednesday, i saw 3foot star troopers standing in the aisles. There t mall thats going to play movies, are they going to be busier . Theres a reason every mall wants a Movie Theater and a cheesecake factory. They want the traffic. If they bring in traffic every day for the next two weeks, nayll see a lot more sales. Who buys star wars jewelry . I want the jacket. I dont want star wars jewelry. Kids. I bought you a darth vader pin for your anniversary. I think its super popular. Think of the core case customer. Theyre going to the movies, whether its bracelets or pins. These are some of the things that move the needles. Its going to be not only what they have from star wars but alex annie. It will be a good jewelry christmas this year. Thank you, folks. Youve been joining us here for this black friday. Its a great to have you. Well be watching you wear your star wars jewelry next time. Im waiting for the old ties to come up. Thank you very much. Up next, weve been reading your tweets all morning long. Many of you sharing your deals. Keep squawking. Well be right back. Tmobile has a deal that blows away black friday. Get a 4g lte tablet on us, when you get a data plan for no money down, and no monthly payments. Dont wait. Get a tablet on us only at tmobile. Bob dylan. To improve my language skills, ive read all of your lyrics. Youve read all of my lyrics . I can read 800 million pages per second. Thats fast. My Analysis Shows your major themes are that time passes. And love fades. That sounds about right. I have never known love. Maybe we should write a song together. I can sing. You can sing . Do be bop. Be bop do. Do be do be do. Do do do be do. Every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. Smart devices are up. Cloud is up. Analytics is up. Seems like everything is up except your budget. Introducing comcast Business Enterprise solutions. With a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. Because you cant build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. Welcome back, everybody. Right now its time for keep squawking. These are the stories that keep you buzzing. Target already reporting a strong start, saying that it sold an ipad every second throughout the day on thanksgiving. It also sold more than 3 million movies. Of course, not all of you are hitting the stores for deals, choosing to celebrate from the couch instead. One says only the nuts are out there. We told you a piece in Rolling Stone. A growing number or some number may be experiments with micro doses of lsd to help them work. A lot of you writing about this. One squawk fan tweets that drugs should never be acceptable in the office. He says that drug use might explain bad software in the valley. How do you like that idea. Some of those beta versions not as up to snuff as they should be. Or your app doesnt work as it should. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Michelle. Thank you. Right now its time for squawk on the street. Good friday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im carl kwinquintanilla. Jim is off. We assess the state of retail on this black friday. Relatively flat session in europe, although, shanghai down over 5 as regulators reportedly crack down on some security