Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150406

If youre waking thup morning be, lets get you up to speed on the markets. The futures are suggesting a fairly negative open. Dow open lower by 130 points. Wall street is returning from a long Holiday Weekend which included no trading on friday and jobs report though despite their trading on friday which shows march payrolls raising 126,000. That was much weaker than expected. We had lots of people on the set on friday. Not a Single Person got close to the number. Everybody was above. All though everybody was below i was not. I was not above. I saw the thing. Everybody was below. Everybody was below the estimate. This is our thing. Not your thing. We do it every morning when it comes on. You cant duoover. Did you draw it yourself . I did. I drew the bottom part. The top part you like it . It was great. Every month i have to come up with something. I wont play the stupid. You see how productive it is. Like it matters what my guess is. Write down three numbers. Who cares what i i put pie down. I got that one. John 3 16 once. I was closer than leaseman than the excel spread sheets. One thing we did do was kick around the possible negative things the number could mean. I dont think theres no one thinks that the answer is more zero Interest Rates. Thats not going to help us at this point. We have to build up. Theres a slow down and the number confirmed a lot that the one thing that hasnt been dropping off was employment that all the other weird numbers consumer retail. They had been weak already. Then we had the great claims number on wednesday or thursday which we got down to 260 something and this came and it was like, wow, is this a 3 gdp economy in 2015 . Really . Yeah. It puts the fed, to me in a real pickle now. It risks its own credibility. They telegraphed now that okay a rate hike is coming this year. Almost everybody but if you get a bad jobs number on friday what happens if its backed up by another. What happens if they cant raise the rate. They might as well, you know they might as well theyre out of bullets. The stuff they have done has only been so effective. Do you think they go in june. They better go in june. So you talked about it for a long time. I think it raises the chance they never hike in 2015. Thats the scary thing. Theyre in the rhodes motel. I think they go in june. I think they have to. I dont think they go at all. If they dont go at all then its thats what im saying. Fisher said theyre going this year. But theyre data dependent and the data was bad. You know what do you think shes more focussed on inflation or jobs . I think the dollar at this point, you know, that run is sort of over because who knows if they go up and that economy is not that much better anywhere else. I think you can probably bet on europe. And the bull market going on forever . Were not up for the year are we . Its mr. Halftime report. You have the statistics. Were up a tiny last week. I know. When we go down today when we go down today. The nasdaq is up for the year, i think, like 4 . Its bad if one day takes you for the year. That shows you how close to flat. There are years when the market goes down. We havent had one in six years or something. 2009. Theres almost a generation of people who have no idea that markets actually go down. Right. They also have no idea that it can be lucrative and great. Theyre still the meillennialsmillennials. Theyre asking for flex time. Yeah. They are. Premiums. Yeah. I finally realize that generations, like when youre three or four generations removed from the young generation then nothing you do is cool. Like you would think holding up ungrateful dead thing is for some business guy that is, you know, that is in his late 40s or whenever i am. Early 50s. But holding it up 60 plus set. It was cool. Thats whey mean. The millennials that are cool today listening to adamly convene or something. They looked at me like what is that, grandpa . Ungrateful who . Jerry garcia when did he die . In the last century or something. I feel it. I feel theyre saying that. Anyway. All right. Thank you for taking your jacket off. Yeah. You look good. Thank you. Someone wrote in water. Some movers and water even jigglier are even worse. Yeah. Im trimming the frame. Im good. I do, too. Drew a photograph. Those are even better. Im going have that. I was impressed. Youre going to want me. Anyway. All right. Here are the other big stories were watching today. Oil prices rises sharply among the catalysts. Saudi arabia hiking prices for crude sales to asia for a second month. Better demand in the region. Crude dropped at the end of last week on the iran nuclear deal. Analysts are cautioning the country is unlikely to ramp up ex exports. Athens repay loan due from the imf. The managing director and the greek minister met in washington yesterday. European markets closed for easter monday. Sources telling me federal Law Enforcement agencies recently contacted several top herb life members for information about their business practices. Its unclear what Law Enforcement asked for at this point. And in a separate story, they severed inquiries recently lyly irregular trading in the stock. Part of a broader investigation into possible market manipulation. The largest independent shareholder telling me he has no intex intention of eliminating his part in the company. He might be looking to exit his position after recently changing his filing status with the s. E. C. , he said. I was working the story last night. I havent seen 8. Something percent. Hes the ceo of boast holdings. Yeah. Okay. Im told this is around maybe they contacted up to 10 or so of their top members for information. Its a new development in the ongoing story. How long has he been in . Hes been in washington for a long people were thinking he amended his s. E. C. Filing on friday night, right. Good friday from a 13d to a 13g, which theoretically would make it easier for him to sell stock. Anonymity. Not telegraphing the market. Not having to tell every time he sold it. He has no intention. He has never done more Due Diligence on a single investment than this and nothing has changed his opinion. Why did he change the status then . He said its a better reflect his relationship with the company. Whatever means. I dont see how he can do the Due Diligence and come to that conclusion. I think if it was sitting here he would say that the Due Diligence was flawed from the start. That he looks at this and says this is obvious there is nothing wrong with their business model. Theres nothing there for regulators to shut the company down and get the complete opposite of the spectrum. Its multiLevel Marketing. Its, you know, its weird. Its one mans pyramid scheme is one mans Level Marketing success story. Lets check on the markets this morning. We need to maybe feel some pain after that number on friday. Nothing was open. We saw the futures briefly trade on friday. An, you know, thats what were looking at today. I dont like a lot of times when you start off down 135 before the market opens youre not sure where the bottom is. I dont know where it will be by halftime. It could be anywhere. Its an exciting thing. You never know. I mean, we go 2 and 300 points like its nothing at this point. Well see what happens today. Were starting off nervous about earnings and nervous about the economy and employment. Well see. Dont you think its, you know, one thing would you rather have the futures look the way they do now rather than the futures be up and be yeah. I would rather have it. Which we discuss so often. I would rather have them up. But start off down 135. Im so tired of that. Down 300 is right after down 200. And then i dont know one of these days well take out a big number. I dont know. Thats the data dependent. Thats the question i have. Are they data dependent when it means equity markets. I think they might be. Lets look at the ten year thats asia markets. The ten year so much for 2 happening or 3 . Or 1. 9 even. Yeah. 1. 84. Check out the dollar because maybe, you know, people that said par was in the bag at 105 i dont know now were back to 110. Did we see oil . What happened to iran oil . Oil is up about 3 . What happened to iranian oil . Flooding the markets so much for that. Saudi arabia is raising prices. And, you know, the papers are talking about weather how the deal and you dont know what its going to look like in june. Theres so much acura money and disagreement and both sides claiming Different Things. Dont you get the sense that the spth desperate to get it done . I was thinking this morning about the never tieing jihads or terrorism to islam. Did it all have to do with a appeaseing iran to get the deal done for legacy. Is it all about that really . Yeah. And the, you know, the bad relations and did it all have to do with getting this done . When you look at what the journal is reporting how quickly they gave in on enrichment capacity. Day one cant do that. Okay. Next. They could have taken a stance. It speaks to the interview that the president gave tom friedman about the obama doctrine. I didnt read that. I just didnt. I should. Lets get more moving on. Well fill you in later. Engagement. Right. Engagement over isolation, having the confidence engagement with the opportunity to do something if it doesnt work. Something. And the willingness to take risks. To be confident enough in yourself. I feel were taking huge risk. I do. Were risking everything. Is it Ronald Reagan risk nixon risk . Or jimmi carter . Were taking a big risk. Lets get more on the markets after friday. Tom leaf any change in your overall outlook at this point . All systems go . Yeah, i mean its disappointing, though. I think markets it was a pretty weak number on a heel of disappointing data for q 1. When i look at the rest of the year i think these are temporary factors. You need it to be not just a stock market phenomena now. It used to be the fed was able to not control but a lot of fed action helped the stock market with a weak economy. With the assumption that the economy would that the fed would eventually pass the baton to a stronger economy. Yeah. Thats questionable now. Why stay . Thats a good question but i think the question we need to ask ourselves is the economy capable of generateing organic growth. I think when you look at housing theres evidence of that. Home buildings are outperforming year to date. Its one of the few bright spots. When we look at Capital Spending its been weak. But its going to tighten this year and its a precursor to Capital Spending u picking up. Youre not concerned about the economy. It seems like youre pretty easy to brush off the disappointing jobs report when even some of the data leading up to it was pretty disappointing. I mean, it is disappointing. As you know you go in for expectations. Even the fed expecting the number for the year and were tracking lower for the first quarter, but yeah again, i think if q 2 is tracking at the same level we have to worry about it. I think a lot are temporary factors. The dollar is reversing. Construction was a drag. Government was a drag. We dont expect to see it the rest of the year. Do you shift your view as a result of the number . In general we thought there wasnt going to be enough justification to do something in june. So, you know, we have is there enough in september . Well, you hesitate. Yeah. I would say that it would be the market would be in a better position if we did something in september. Only because i think we would be seeing better european and japanese data at that time. I think the timing would coincide with sort of better Global Growth expectations. You said the market would not handle a rate hike in june . I think it could cause concern. To simplify it i think you would be talking about the narrative would be hey, the fed is tightening at the time when the rest of the world is easing. Thats going to be the case regardless when it moves. Well, i think as we move later in the year you know, with the eurozone picking up and showing evidence of picking up, i mean q 1 europe will grow faster than the u. S. I think it changes the dynamic of nonu. S. Qe versus u. S. Qe. Its weird. Were nowhere near normalzation rates given 5. 5 unemployment. Why is it factored in . We should be in a different position based on theres no sense. You dont 5. 5 and zero dont jive . I dont envy being the fed right now. But i what are we getting for it . Are we that weak and the economy is built on such a Weak Foundation that we need to stay at zero or else we go to . Well, i think it is a tricky situation to have to be pulled out of and i think Market Reaction is probably something we have to be mindful of and meeting expectations. Couldnt the people that say that the part of the problem is being at zero is part of the problem with holding the economy back . That, you know, number one people are perhaps waiting to do things until they see the first hike and theres no savings. People cant earn anything on money and a lot of money goings into planting and developments goes into Financial Engineering and goes to places it shouldnt be going. I agree. If were six years into an expansion, and, you know, the economy is growing at 2, should the fed be at zero . That would indicate theres serious underlying fundntamental problems. Weve had low rates in past regimes. This is not the first time weve had low Interest Rates. What i think is key is the feds tightening, right, is it going to be seen as a positive investment signal . I would say without a question ultimately its going to be seen as positive. Then they should go in two. You staid. But the fed has, i mean it can do a quarter and not do anymore cant they . You know, i think its a tough job. I hope theyre watching. Come on. Grow up. Are you one of those guys really grow up janet. Youre a stock guy. Rates stay low, right. I guess that would be your starting position. I think that Equity Investors that were doing the qe trade or the bond trade a lot have taken to europe. I dont think theres as much the bond proxy trade in the u. S. As there was a couple of years ago. Okay. And we see utilityies have weaken. Stocks are outperforming. I think theres less now. All right. Youre not as bullish. You dont sound like youre worried. Im worried. You definitely dont sound as bullish as you have. Yeah. Waffling. I think the question i would ask myself is, look, what would we do if the market has a bad week and were down two . I think its going to be a buying opportunity, but, you know, in the face of a weak jobs number, its not something that is everything is on track. All right. Thank you. Supposedly jersey garcia died the same day that netscape went public. Really . Is there some poety there . Netscape isnt around anymore. That was the beginning of the dotcom era. Thatsmillennial. My kids dont remember when they didnt have electronics. Do youillennials know hes a geezer. But jerry. No dice. Should you explain why right. Along with mark. Yeah. I assumed people know. They dont. Not necessarily. They dont. Coming up a huge week for sports. The ncaa championship tonight. The masters a few days after. Dave brigs of nbc sports joins us on set. First, as we head to break, here is a look back at this day in history. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise can data help cure a disease . The right treatment for you is out there. The problem is some of its in this lab. Some of it is in her head. Some of its in this new journal. And the rest of it is in your personal medical history. Ibm watson can not only read this data, but understand it. Its trained by doctors. And its always learning. It can help find hidden correlations and help your doctor recommend Treatment Options for you. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. A live picture outside lucas oil stadium. Tonight the mens ncaa Basketball Championship game. Wisconsin stunned kentucky on saturday night ending the undefeated season. It was the highest rated final four game in 22 years. Would fans tune in if the players were paid . Cnbc economic reporter joins us with an early look at the cnbc all America Economic survey. Will people tune in . A lot surprising number. A lot of polls asked americans whether they support paying college players. As many as 66 say they do not. We asked in our allamerica survey a different question and come up with interesting results. First, lets take a look who is watching at all. And the numbers are 35 of the public say they watched a lot, some, or just a little. 65 . Thats a big number for any broadcast at all. 35 . Then we took the next step and said would you still watch among those who are say their fans would you still watch if the players were paid . 7 said more likely. 32 would be less likely. And 61 say no difference. They say what is the difference. When you look at the big money that is college basketball. If youre messing around with 31 or 32 of the potential viewership thats a serious i dont believe its. It is what it is. What do you think would happen . Not going to watch the games the past weekend if players were paid . Theyre not going to care. The coaches are making billions of dollars. Hang on. Youre not going to improve salaries. If it it was a true free market kids would be making 5 or 10 million. I dont know if you would watch. With the kids making 5 or 10 million. What you have is a second rate minor league basketball. Some people say you already do. Do. Let me tell you one other thing the most likely to say they wouldnt watch its men over 50. Its rich men worth more than 100,000 in salaries. I didnt realize that was rich. It is very rich. What do you make . In new york city youre not rich if you make 100,000. In the country, you are rich if you make 75,000. Post graduate degree 25 . Here is the problem for the ncaa, these are the people most likely to be watching. Theyre saying least likely to well have the full reports tomorrow on the economy and everything else. But want to bring it before the title. It is interesting and im thinking about it a lot lately. Let me read this first. One wildcat super fan went as far as getting inked. He might be experiencing buyers remorse today. For more on tonights big game and the masters, you know, with the way calipari can compete and u. K. s history, i think thats probably its better than some tattoos. It will last longer. It says 4002015. Okay. That is bad. I didnt see that part. A bit of a problem. I think with creativity you can make the 5, make it a 2. I watched i was with everybody else and, you know, we got about ten Different Things to talk about with the pay. I think 30 of people are lying. I think its the most beautiful. Many people complained the offense has been down. Officiating too many timeouts. Its true. Too long timeouts. You know, the last five minutes of the dukeutah game was 35 minutes. The last 8 00 of the kentuckynotre dame game eight timeouts. Before that you read its the highest rated final four game since 93 people love this game. I was ready to ditch big time. Did you see the foul away from the ball on the threepointer that was called back. Did you see the guy . Another one kentucky was totally moving and they called it an offensive foul. There were three really bad ones. There was bad officiating throughout the tournament and in that game in particular. I think it came out. The free throw discrepancy in the duke game were ridiculous. I dont remember what the number is. Are you suggesting duke is getting calls . I would never. I would never do that. Duke may get a few calls. Its a dominant team on the court. It was never a contest. Did you see snls take on paying College Athletes . They willhad a guy dressed up saying hes not going to play on monday night. Since hes a student athlete hes not ready for the biology test. Because the one year in college is a rich experience for these athletes, the one year they spend. They did a good job. The player of the year in the game has one class now and its a study online class. He has one class he doesnt even have to show up for. Is he a student in any way, shape, or form . No. Hes the best player in the tournament and the second best player makes the game absolutely perfect. Theres no effect. It could be it may well be. I just got the numbers. If yo pay him a couple of thousand. Either theyre you get to go for example, lets say you go to stanford, get a great education, and theres a lot of money in college sports. Cant you spread it around to the different sports. Lady, you know. Title ix is going to be it helps the colleges. While youre there, if youre great youll have a great career and the answer is no. You can only pay revenue sports. If you try to pay every single sport forget it. Here is the thing. Title ix will be a problem. For basketball and football. If they can pay without changing the economics. Thats why the viewership question is important. They have the money around then its okay. If they pay and they turn people off and ruin what you say one of the finest tournaments in all of sports anywhere. But why would paying them ruin it . Because people are some people we dont know. Some people are tuning in. What is the right way to put it. Fictitious romance of amateur. It seems collectively as a nation we fool ourselves. So the romance gone . I think its about the romance. People dont know what is playing. People have no idea the names of the players in this southerntournament. They know duke and wisconsin. More talent on kentucky than anywhere else. No question but the best team was wisconsin. We wont remember unless theyre in the nba. Not shaking hands, a racial slur in enforced the stur owe types that people had about kentucky. It didnt make a lot of sense. How about the masters you saw Jordan Spieth . Hes the hottest player in golf. A win and two second place finishes. He comes in the second highest favorite behind only rory mcilroy the number one player in the world. He hasnt come out of the gate strong and he rant really seemed to take command of the number one ranking ever. Hes clearly the best player in golf. I look for Jordan Spieth to come out there. He has more stones if you will. He seems to have the mentality of it. He wants that moment. Did you see the upanddown on 18 yetsterday before the playoff . The 18th hole messed with him off the tee. He had a tough time. It is very hard. Holmes hitting it three times just right j. B. Holmes you have to be happy for him with the final round 64 and hangs on long enough. Theres a couple of americans patrick reid is a guy you have to look out for. Stones too. Yeah. And then bubba watson is number three. And tiger woods comes back 281 shot. First golf in two months. I would be surprised if he makes the cuts. It he has the yips forget about it. You cant chip. And the tight lies at augusta. How is his head going to work . Im not even playing im not tiger and im nervous for him on the tight lies. Its been great for the passes though. Tickets are through the roof. Ratings will be up 10 or 20 . Its his last masters before he turns 40 too. I came up with that by myself. It is going to be nerve wracking for him. But, you know, hes so solid. He had the mental edge on everyone. Now he doesnt intimidate anybody. And i think Jordan Spieth has it. That was a long one on 18 he had to hit and i heard the camera. The putt on 18 well and the back swing. Jordan spieth complained about back swing camera noise. He said im not making excuses in the interview. He and stepped up and didnt want to be a wienerne whiner. It would be nice if we could watch the entire masters rather than yeah. We dont want to hit squawk box from 6 00 a. M. To 6 00 p. M. Its a certain skarsty. Its a certain squawk box is from 6 00 to 9 00. People would prefer it to 6 00 to 6 00. They prefer get themselves a masters app and you can watch it online. During the noon hour they would prefer more squawk. Lets get out of the stone age and show the entire we didnt get any picks. Duke or wisconsin . Wisconsin. Big 10 duke is peaking. Wisconsin. Duke. Okay. Lets go doubles im glad everybody in the tournament got to feel what im feeling and that is being a loser. Everybody who had kentucky is a loser. Coming up wow. Well they are. Theyre not going to win. Theyre not going to win and neither am i. A ad in the New York Times this weekend catching our attention. Well tell you why after this. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 so if you get a trade idea schwab can help you take it on. Tdd 18003452550 were getting a lot of questions tdd 18003452550 about organic food stocks. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd 18003452550 with indepth analysis by schwab experts. Tdd 18003452550 and if you want to run your idea tdd 18003452550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd 18003452550 our expertise is just a tap away. Tdd 18003452550 whats on your mind lisa . Tdd 18003452550 id like to talk about a trade idea. Tdd 18003452550 lets hear it. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help tdd 18003452550 light a way forward. 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Flag and made it look like the moon. One giant leap for mans kindness. What does mean . I didnt get it. Is it kind to go rent an apartment or a place to stay in cuba . Is that what they meant . I didnt understand it. It was kind cubans opening their homes to americans . Maybe. Maybe. Of course tourists cant go. Open up basically not continuing along the path were on for 50 years. But thats a political statement by air bnb. Absolutely. Thats weird. Im keelfeeling kind of starbucky which is an uncomfortable feeling. I was in washington it weekend intense rumors this is the week that cuba is going to be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Which would make them the next step before establishing the castro brothers have been rehabilitate dated by president obama. Yeah. Ncaa basketball. I watched the Editorial Board over the weekend. I think its the other network fox. Wow those guys are conservative. I like them dorothy was on them talking about indiana. Whoa man. Im a little more main stream. Those guys are yep. Conservative. Obama rehabilitate tates sarcastic with the title. Yeah. How long until tourists are going to be able to go . The way the regulations are right now, right now. I mean in theory they reserve the right to look at your eyesee if youre doing tourism but bottom line you can get on the plane now. Theres some loophole. Name Naomi Campbell and paris hillton went. Well talk about the future of the e. U. And the impact on the currency markets next. I care deeply about the gulf. I grew up in louisiana. I went to school here. Ive been with bp ever since. Today, i lead a team that sets our Global Safety standards. After the spill we made two commitments. To help the gulf recover and become a safer company. Weve worked hard to honor both. Bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. And five years of Research Shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. Weve toughened Safety Standards too. Including enhanced training. And 24 7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. And everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. What happened here five years ago changed us. Im proud of the progress weve made both in the gulf and inside bp. Heres to breaking more glass ceilings in golf and everywhere else. Kpmg. Continuing our commitment to the next generation of women leaders. New this morning greeces finance minister said they will repay a loan due to the i. M. F. This you think what do you think greece staying or going . Do you own greek debt . Absolutely not. Did you think about it . Yes. But i think about a lot of things. The yields are incredible. F they if they pay. If. Its telling you the probably of default is significant. Are they going to leave the euro . I think were at the end of the road for greece. Unlike on february 20th they have to come up with details and the details theyre coming up with arent rooking so great. Theres hardly any details. They dont fill out the forms the way the i. M. F. Likes. Hardly any details and their ask is quite huge. They want a, you know, no austerity, and they want a significant cut in the outstanding debt they have. And more money. Right. If you dont greek debt do you own any other european sovrns . I dont own european sovereign bonds but i own european credit. What kind of yield are you getting considering with the Interest Rates in europe . Most of the debt i have in europe is on the structured side and so we collateralized loan obligations. Correct. And how does compare to the italian yield of 1. 2 . Several hundred basis points higher. I would hope. And you like european credits better than u. S. Credit . Yes and no. I think right now qe helped but it could come to an end if greece does exit. I think the probably for a greece exit in the months ahead is significantly higher. Give me a date and why . Its hard to give a date. The probably of default is 60 to 75 over the course of the year. Default is one thing. Right. You dont pay. You can print script. You can print iou, with you can go to capital control and not leave the euro. It sounds like you think they go hand in hand. I think so. I think the biggest thing that died in the discussions is trust. I dont theres a lot of trust between the eurozone and greece. What happens to greece eurozone if greece leaves. I think we have because that means everybody in europe the taxpayers are paying it rather than the banks. Well i think that they talked about it and the holders of the debt is mostly european governments. I think theres a significant probably that other countries iny s inies in might consider leaving. Do you think italy might . With 130 debt to gdp and no significant change in Growth Prospects im sure they would consider it. Not this year . Timing is tough. But spain has a leftest party. If elections were held today they might win. And they like greece. We interviewed that guy. He makes greeces look sometimes moderate. Its pretty amazing. You have the ecb buying all the sovrns. They wont feel pressure if greece leaves. You have a buyer who makes sure. Thats what pushes them out. Well, you know, i think a catalyst like greece leaving creates a whole other set of situations such as potential runs on banks such as a questioning by bonk Market Investors and whether italy has the wherewithal to pay that. And the greek exit theres a myth that is shattered that is there to keep the countries inside the eurozone. Maybe well find out. Thank you for coming in. Thank you. Coming up the man behind morning money. Dan white joins us to talk about from everything from the job report to the race to the white house. As we head to the break, our are the futures. Dow the real question that needs to be asked is what is it that we can do that is impactful . What the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. It used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. Whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, thats what id like to do. When youre living with diabetes steady is exciting. Only glucerna has carbsteady clinically proven to help minimize blood sugar spikes. Im a bull rider make it part of your daily diabetes plan. So you stay steady ahead. Welcome back. Turning to politics now. Gearing up for more republicans to throw their hat in for 2016. Marco rubio expected to officially launch his campaign a week from today. Joining us now is ben white chief correspondent for politico. Good to see you. Hey. How y r you . Good thanks. Weve got rand paul tomorrow. Yeah. Its getting more crowded. And hillary any day can pop in there. Rubio and rand paul in lanes in the party. Hes moved away from some of his fathers roots. Hes still on the audit defense stuff. But hes a little less isolationist. Im interested to see what rand paul has to say about isis and the iran deal. Hes trying to be more hawkish than in the past. Maybe thats the wild card. About exactly the kind of republican that rand paul is going to present himself to be. Yeah. No, its interesting. He risks alienating the core base of the libertarian movement, the rand paul movement if he pulls away from their views on interventions abroad military spending spending in general to a broader electorate. The thing with rand paul he was very popular within a small group and did well in the early primary states. He could never make a run for the nomination. Rand paul wants to bring in the libertarians appeal to Silicon Valley with privacy stuff but not scare off the establishment so much with antiwar views or audit the fed views. When you look at the libertarian core of all the issues, i mean im not being facetious saying they care about pot, for example a lot of them when it comes to the libertarian base. Privacy, et cetera et cetera. But defense i dont think ranks nearly as high. No. It ranks low. The main views there are the United States should be involved as little as possible in foreign entanglements. We should not be spending a lot of money on defense. And thats a difficult thing at any time in a republican primary. Particularly now when you have so many hot spots around the world. You talked about cuba earlier, china. Theres lots of issues on the global stage that a republican nominee will have to deal with. Thats just not the forte of the strand of republicanism. Switching to the president. On thursday he told a gathering in louisville kentucky, our economy has been growing. Weve got momentum. Then came the disappointing jobs report. Does he have a problem with that message . He does. The tail end of that quote, though, is he said theres a chance that we could stall out here. He realizes that there are a lot of headwinds for the u. S. Economy right now. The strong dollar has done some damage. Weak wage growth. Then we get this terrible jobs number. Theres different takes on that. Some of it is the winter and q2 will look be rt. This happens to obama every year hep wants to tout a strengthening economy by associating himself with that and then it doesnt happen. We get another slowdown and poor numbers. Thats happening now. I think for a guy around 50 wanting to get higher thats not going to happen until we see the wages pick up until we see job growth consistently 200,000, 300,000. I think hes stuck here and moved on to iran to jack up approval rating. What does it mean for hillary . Its difficult for her to succeed a democratic incumbent if we get to early 2016 and things dont pick up and we dont see a few quarters of stronger growth and this long hope for wage growth doesnt happen. It makes it much more difficult to succeed a democratic incumbent and puts pressure on her to come up with a set of economic proposals to say obama economics wasnt good enough. This is what ill give you. Then of course the fed wild card. If the fed moves at some point this year into the fall to tweak up Interest Rates and that slows things further that makes it easy for a republican candidate to say the economy is slowing, we need a new set of policies on taxation regulation a whole bunch of stuff. Ben, good to talk to you this morning. Always a pleasure. Politicos ben white. Coming up investors return from a long haul of a weekend. Fridays much weeker job reports. Were going to talk to david darst. Thats when squawk box comes right back. Markets getting a chance to react to the march job numbers that came in way below expectations. A trip inside the numbers ahead. President obama speaking on iran. This is our best bet to make sure iran doesnt get a Nuclear Weapon. Michael hayden here to tell us why he thinks the deal is flawed. And a recordbreaking weekend at the box office for fast furious 7. A closer look at the movie that just logged the best april debut ever. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im joe kernen along with Michelle Carusocabrera and scott wapner. Andrew and becky are off today. The latest movie in that universal franchise fast and furious destroyed records. The seventh movie in the series brought in 143. 6 million in its north american debut. Thats the bestever april premiere. The ninth best opening totally in history. Globally the movie brought in 240 million so far for universal which is owned by of course by cnbcs Parent Company comcast. A lot of it you have to have a sense of disbelief for some of the stubtnts done here. There are things like the laws of physics dont apply. People are falling and they can climb up as theyre falling and stuff. But no matter. The movie did feature paul walker in one of his final roles. The 40yearold actor died in a car crash in 2013, as you know. His work on the film was completed using standins and digital technology. And we highlighted the social networking aspects of how this film was introduced about two or three weeks ago, all of us did. Becky and andrew were both here. And we looked at three of the stars in the top ten for social reach. And we looked at how many i dont know. Smus. Thank you. Its not the college. But these are social media universe or something and they have millions. And you add them all together and its like 20 million. And as a result you look at the people that are likely to see it in a certain age group. There was 90 awareness when this movie was coming that it was coming who was in it. The rock is big time. Jason stathom. Vin diesel is huge in that area. We said 140 was going to get done in prilss. And they knew it. Because of the reach on social media. Who needs to advertise on tv anymore. Dont discount social need ya. I wish it werent so because i dont really like it, but you need to play. You instagram yet, wapner . I do. I dont. Do you . No. Do you facebook . No. Have you tried periscope . Its fun. I love it. Its fun. You dont have instagram . I meerkat. Is there such a thing as snorkeling . No. I dont periscope. Why are you looking at me like that . Your mind goes right there, doesnt it . I dont know what youre talking about. Your mind just stays there. Thats right. It never leaves there. Whats meerkat. Oh. This is a holly hunter moment for you. Yes. Competing app a does the same thing. Does what . Im going to get on my phone and well periscope at some point during the show. Go ahead. Thanks. Among the other stories were watching this hour, greece finance minister of about a half billion dollars due this week. Imf managing director met in washington yesterday. Leaders spoke out on the deal with iran. Benjamin netanyahu urging the u. S. To seek a better deal to curb Irans Nuclear program. They press lawmakers not to give iran a free path to the bomb. President obama making his case for the agreement to tom friedman from the New York Times. He reiterated his support for israel and said the deal is the best hope to prevent iran from acquiring a Nuclear Weapon. We talked to former cia director Michael Hayden in a few minutes. Oil prices rising sharply this morning. Crude sales hiking for a second month pointing to better demand in that region. March jobs number coming in well short of expectations. If you tuned in friday morning, we were here and it was a bad number. U. S. Equity futures trading lower. This is the holdover you see here. The dow would open lower by more than 120 points. The nasdaq lower by 30. And the s p 500 down by 13. Steve leisman joins us now. Over the weekend im going to steal a bit of thunder, the disappointing jobs report and other weak data the past several weeks, jpmorgan slashing the forecast to 0. 6 from 1. 5 saying, quote, the unexpectedly soft march labor report raises obvious concerns of growth momentum. Still, jpmorgan economists continue to maintain the forecast for the current quarter. The government reporting on friday just 126,000 jobs created in march. Well below the forecast of nearly 250,000 jobs. And the reaction of economists ranges from those who see it as an inevitable blip in an unprecedented strength of strong numbers. Many blaming the weather for that. As for the fed, reaction also mixed. Heres a smattering of the commentary i was reading. Pnc actually moving their call for the first rate hike to september from july. Goldman saying the risk of their september rate hike is now later because of this report. And everybody chill out. Theres two more jobs reports between now and june and those could certainly turn around expecting north of 200,000 jobs. Lets take a quick look at what happened to bonds. You see there, six bips down on the one year. You had a similar reaction in the fed funds. Guys, the december 2015 fed funds contract now trading at count em, 34 basis points. Which means the gap between what the fed is forecasting and what the market is forecasting which it closed is now widening again. So the fed is going to have to change their view or the markets going to have to come up so theres a game to be played here for investors. You know where im guessing. What will you guess not at all . Yeah. Not this year. Yeah. I think this data turns around. I am not surprised after 126 after 12 straight months of 200plus. Weve got to work through the a dollar and low oil prices. I think well have a pretty strong march and june. Youre forecasting them to go in june . No. Im telling you if they dont go in june theyre going to hear it from me. Youre going to write them a letter . No. Im going to ream them on tv. They dont have the we realize they use the words stones. And stones i think we can stay. Those kind. Now we used it three times. Im thinking of stones in all sorts of matters expect for that one. They better have the stones to raise rates. I get it. You are on national television, not just television. International. Thats right. Yes. They got to go into it. I dont think theyre data dependent. Theyve got to go to a quarter. Come on. Data . 5. 5 . Go to a quarter. Just show that we do charge money when we give it to someone. You dont get zero back or pay someone to hold it. Cant they do that . They can do that. They can do that. Dont you think they will in june . No. I dont think theyre going to in june. Am i going to hear from you now . Yes. Youre going to write me a letter . Did this jobs report all but take june off the table . No. I dont think so. I know what you said. I know exactly what you said. Its where youre sitting. Its the persons chair. Are you the one making the move on the rates . Im just saying if they dont, theyve got serious mental problems. Well theyre going to have to deal with you because i dont think theyre going no june. Thats what im saying. All right. Can we are you with me or against me . You just heard. You guys want to take it outside . Bruce is kind of a smart guy. For more reaction its all this free money, why not stay here . Never could be anything wrong with this. For more reaction to the jobs report were joined by bruce casman. And our guest host david darst. Independent consultant but was also at Morgan Stanley for a long time. Were going to talk a lot. You always come so well prepared. And i want to talk to you. I want to get your reasons for doing things. Bruce, they wont go in june. I know you. They wont go in june. Stay easy forever, right . I dont think stay easy forever. Whats going to happen is the economy is going to rebound. I think there are questions about how much it rebounds. But i think the idea that the economy is going to do better in the Second Quarter is pretty clear on a number of fronts. I think we have a tightening labor market. I think we have signed that wages are turning. I think the fed is holding back here because theres just more uncertainty and concern about the dollar. More questions about where growth is. Thats something they really dont want to do. So theyre going to hold off here a little bit. If were looking at an economy that is going to gather steam, labor markets that continue to tighten. The feds going to come back here and have to start to tighten. At 1. 05 on the euro, i could see it. Now were back to 1. 10. Europe, were going to hear five really compelling reasons why david darst thinks you should invest in europe. I mean cant we do anything looking in the looking down the road instead of the rearview mirror. Cant we realize that europe is going to do better . We dont need to worry about the dollar being too strong. We can go to a quarter point at 5. 5 unemployment. Cant we do it . Its 5. 5 unemployment. Dont people look at things where things are historically are to say were not seeing the forest through the trees here . I think wh enthe feds start the tightening having been on zero so long they want to be 150 sure to move. Oh, god. I think thats an appropriate thing recognizing that once they get going they can pick up the pace. The decision of whether you start in june or september to me is not the big call. The decision is how much do you adjust. We could do a quarter and stay there. You dont have to go to terminal price. We decided thats no longer real terminal pricing, right . We dont zart at a quarter and go to 300 basis points. No. I want to press bruce on this question. On your question. Im not sure what the value is but they could do just a quarter and stop. Im not sure what the value is either way, but you could make the point that in 5. 5 unemployment, 2. 5 growth if thats really around potential, that you shouldnt be right at zero. And maybe theres some value in providing a little bit of upside on the savings rate. Well i think the uncertainties about how the economy and how the market handles a signal from the fed that its starting to raise rates in an environment where the fed has traditionally begun a tightening cycle, its just a chunk. I think those are big issues for whether or not the economy is ready. Whether or not the fed should take that step. And i dont think the fed will take that step until its ready to do somewhere between 100 to 200 basis points of tightening. The question of one they should do it i think is relatively uncertain now in a world where youre uncertain. I think those questions will get answered over the next three months in a way that bring the feds in here. I dont think theyll be answered quick in you have. The taper tantrum, was that Bernanke Bernanke . It was bernanke. But he did it a couple of mornts later. Wow. Oh, my god. Hes crazy, nuts insane. He stopped buying 80 billion worth of bonds. Yeah. Hes nuts. Hes liable to do anything at any time. 6 unemployment and they stop buying 80 billion. It was unprecedented. Heres the problem. You have models that show you Interest Rates should be negative. Okay . That zero is not enough. That, in fact the right rate for the economy is one that has a whole number but a minus sign in front of it. Thats what qe is. We argued about inflation last week. I think everybody thinks its gone forever. As long as youre worried about as much as youre worried about it we are cool with inflation. I havent been worried about it all along. Now that every single hawk has been no inflation, inflation. Right. Exactly. I feel like we are so far from having an inflation problem. Thats the problem. Thats not a problem. Its reality. Its what the data says. Mcdonalds and walmart and companies a little tiny raise for low income workers this is the way it starts. The fed should anticipate too. Right. But how much . They should be anticipating eventually you dont stay in crisis mode after a crisis. 5 trillion love Corporate Bonds have negative Interest Rates already. You know this. Were in very irrational time. Weve moved to quantum mechanics. Things dont work the way they should. This idea of whether we move in june or september is maybe how fast the pace bruces key point, pace. Morgan stanleys economist thinks its going to be next year. 2017. March of 2016. But theyll raise eight times next year. And that could upset the market. So theyll be behind the curve. Behind the curve. They should get ahead of the curve. Anyway, so what do thats my job. So you get mad at me. Not june but at some point in 2015. We have them starting in september. Again, i think the Second Quarter is key here. Its probably not going to come along quickly enough to bring june back on the table, but were looking to see the economy get back to 3 . Were looking for things to turn pretty broadly here and were looking to see both labor markets tighten and some wages to show up. I think both parts of the dual mandate have been satisfied now in this. Youre low enough on unemployment because were almost at full. And we dont and were probably at 2 inflation even though you dont believe it. Thats a great argument. That 1. 3 is close enough as the growth climbs to 2 . You cant really be all that precise. Okay. So youre coming back. Bruce, thank you. Much more you just anyway. Much more from david darst still to come. Coming up world powers striking a Framework Agreement to limit Irans Nuclear capability. But israel and the u. S. Congress not convinced. Former cia director Michael Hayden joins us next. Then the cfc of ubs will join us to talk currencies. Also the ceo of retailer Nicole Miller will be here. Stick around. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Lets look at the futures again. 124. Just looking at a note i just got which i agree with that its not about the fed now. Bad news is bad news. And that was a bad news on friday. Theyve done everything they can do. Cant get out of the muck at 2 . And theyre out of bullets at this point. Weve got to do it eventually. Heres whats happening this morning. Ventas is buying privately held chain arden medical services for 1. 8 billion in cash. Ventas also spinning off their nursing portfolios. This was a fascinating company that you guys probably dont follow that closely. But its a cincinnatibased company that was roto rooter essentially. They owned part of a hospice entity that became larger and larger as a part of that. They ended up changing the name and becoming you know a dedicated health care company. Mostly hospice. You dont think roto rooter and hospice in any way. Not generally. Okay. Moving on. President obama speaking to tom friedman of the New York Times about the Nuclear Agreement with iran. Here was his message to the israelis. What i would say to the israeli people is however, that there is no formula, there is no option to prevent iran from getting a Nuclear Weapon that will be more effective than the the Diplomatic Initiative and framework we put forward. And thats demonstrable. Joining us now Michael Hayden hes the former director of the cia. Good to have you here sir. Good morning, michelle. You just heard president obama. He says this is the best path to prevent iran from having a nuclear bomb. Do you agree . It is potentially a good path michelle. But it has to be done well. I understand the president s broad concept here that we can perhaps bring iran more further, more integrated into the community of nations. Thats a highrisk task in itself. But in addition to that youve got the subtask of actually doing that process well. And so far i think the jury is out. Michelle, i think its really important to point out we dont yet have a deal. I mean the iranians are actually saying those four pages of single spaced talking points they havent quite agreed to all that yet. Even if they have theres a lot of fine print that has to be yet agreed before we can actually say weve got a decent enough deal. Yeah. Its very clear. Those talking points. And specifically the president and secretary of state john kerry said the lifting of the sanctions would be gradual. But the minister said its supposed to be all at once. Also the inspection process, how thats going to work. Im assuming youre talking about whether or not iran is going to cheat and whether or not were going to be able to figure that out. Thats exactly right. There are at least three key issues. Youve hit two of the three. One is the sanctions, how do they get lifted what is the conditionality. And what are the other sanctions for the other aspects of iranian behavior for which the International Community has sanctioned them. Can they even exist when you pull that sanction basket out . The second has to do with inspections. Who gets to say no . And right now the president told tom friedman some sort of International Dispute Resolution body decides if the iaea can go to military sites. And heres the bottom line. The iaea is never going to military sites. Is it because iran is not letting them in . They wont. They never have. I have no confidence they ever will. And finally theres something called pmds. The previous military dimensions of the Iranian Nuclear program. Look. In 07 when we said they had stopped building a weapon we said with high confidence they had been building a weapon at least through 2003. The irans have never come clean on that. And frankly this agreement will not make them come clean either. So there are a lot of problematic elements still left here. I dont know if you can do this, but go out ten years. In what kind of moment is this . Is this a nixon in china moment or jimmy carter moment . I dont think its either or at least we cant prove its either right now. The nixon and china thing is a china that really had some interests that they defined as being coincident with our own. I dont think the iranians have made that definition yet. So what weve got is a narrowly defined nuclear deal. And weve not yet put it into the good enough box in my view. You have a switching gears here you have an oped in the Washington Post recently over the weekend where you were arguing that historically theres been technological protectionism for the United States to give the u. S. A decided military advantage and defense advantage. And then at times that ends up holding back the commercial industry itself. So, for example, with the ability to track data et cetera, the u. S. Has allowed those sales to happen. Tell me what your point is here when it comes to technological protectionism as you call it. It has to do with protectionism in terms of trying to preserve some sort of military security or espionage advantage for the United States. And i get that. Sometimes thats very important. And sometimes i would vote yes. But its not an automatic yes. Michelle sometimes that kind of protectionism punishes american industry makes american industry less capable. And therefore what we end up is relying on an Industrial Base that is not nearly as good as it would otherwise be and is not nearly as good as we need it to be. And so its not automatic that you vote against the ability of American Companies to actually call me a cynical journalist. Youre working in private industry now. Do some of those industries actually pay your salary . Is that one of the reasons you take that position . No look. This is my position. Michelle, in 2000 the argument of the day was something called mtaf which is a measure of capacity. As director of the nsa we limited what American Companies could export. And as director i turned that over. Are you lobbying on behalf of these companies . No. This is my view. And i have a track record this view has been consistent for a decade. I didnt mean to be confrontational, i just wanted to get it out there. Sure. Good to have you. Appreciate it. Thanks. If youre losing loose change in the bins at airport security, youre not alone. You wont believe how much the tsa collects in unclaimed change. That story is next. And then ceo of Nicole Miller will be here to talk consumer friends and income inequality. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise grind virtually any kind of food waste into an unending source of electrical power for a city . When emerson takes up the challenge its never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. Emerson. Say youre a finance guy. A farmer. A researcher. You used to depend on experience. The internet. Your gut. Today you can use ibm watson analytics. It can make sense of all kinds of data. Uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. And give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. What to make. Where to plant. Which helps you make smarter decisions. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. Welcome back to squawk box. Among the stories front and center apple reportedly wont be able to launch its new smart watch in switzerland until the end of this year. Rts cites a patent from 1985 that prevents the company from using the image of an apple and the word apple. They have a patent on apple . Japans sharp reportedly Sharp Company reportedly may spin off its Panel Business and receive funding from a government backed fund. And party goods Retailer Party City filing to raise nearly 428 million in an ipo. The offering expected to price between 15 and 17 a share. Stock is expected to list on the new york stock exchange. And the surprise revenue stream for the tsa, travelers left more than 628,000 in coins and currency in the bins at airport check points in 2013. According to federal law, tsa gets to keep that money provided they use it to improve aviation security. The agency is still counting unclaimed money from 2014. You can read more on the story at cnbc. Com. All right. Coming up well talk banking and global currency shifts with ceo of ubs. Tom naratil will join us on set. And look at the futures. Implied open down almost 14 on the s p. Uncer ] your love for trading never stops. So open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Theres nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. So why pause to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. 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Tom naratil of ubs. Really long walk for you. About two blocks or so. Yeah. Right across the street. Nice to have you in the hood. Lets talk about your view of the world right now. We were having this long discussion about when we think the fed will actually move versus when we think they should. You want to answer when you think they will and then when you think they should . September, probably june. You think they should move in june . Thats joes view as well. Thats big for a guy at an Investment Bank to say that. Everybody is involved at the party in that business. And people duly pointed out to me you keep asking guys at goldman and banks when the fed should raise and youre surprised when they say not for a long time. Right. Because were conditioned. But ceos are lining up to say they shouldnt raise. Why do you think they should go in june . One of those things just starting to move away from where its lower Interest Rates here or negative rates. Youre breaking the chain of rewarding thrift for savers. And that could be disstabilizing. You have this view as firm. You think your customers, your clients are on board with that view . What sort of things are they expressing to you . Well one of the things theyre concerned about is Monetary Policy. You know fed and the ecb moving in potentially Different Directions at the same time. And, you know at the same time the positive experience out of the u. S. Of qe and zero Interest Rate policy negative Interest Rate policy. Still something thats an experiment. And not necessarily something we know the outcome will be. I thought you were going to say they were frustrated by having to buy junk and dare i say crap to get a minimal yield. What weve seen is we dont see those extensions. Our clients have been negative over the past couple of years. The most pronounced is out of fixed income and then the balances are rolling into cash slightly into equities. And turning clients into alternatives. What about the negative Interest Rates in switzerland . Whats the reaction been to the clients and to the bank of these hugely deeply negative Interest Rates . Yeah so what you see in terms of Market Reaction certainly theres a lot of volatility on the daily announcement. I remember talking to our treasury team. It was quite frightening in terms of the volatility you saw. As you move past that interestingly what youve seen is that deposit rates for commercial clients have clearly been dropped to negative rates. About negative 75 basis points per year. On the retail side youve seen things roughly around zero because theres a value to deposits that banks need to consider which is whats the value that funding base. So bizarrely what youve seen is asset prices beginning to move up. Meaning loans on the Balance Sheets starting to widen. So youre seeing a breakdown in the transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy. As we discuss Monetary Policy the fed versus the ecb and you bring up both that causes debate as to where the best place to be is right now. You want to be more exposed to u. S. Or europe or vice versa. Certainly feels good despite a few bits of data that seem softer. A recovery is two steps forward and one back. When we look at europe we are beginning to selectively begin to add to the exposures that we have in europe. Because people certainly think theres more value there maybe more fraught with risk. But theres sort of a playbook of fed or Central Bank Action followed by Market Reaction has been seen in terms of what our markets have done over the last five years. The key in europe will be patience. Just like you needed patience for the u. S. Going back about five or six years ago. Youll need patience in europe as well. A rational move by the Swiss National bank to suddenly without consultation or a warning delink the peg with the euro. What was your reaction personally and as a bank to this suddenness of all institutions the Swiss National bank a model probity. One of the keys to being successful to surprise the market based on that there was an aplus. A few days before they said they were going to stick with you must have been mad. The most frustrating thing to me personally was i lost a bet to a friend of mine. So it cost me 10 more at the end of the afternoon. They didnt tell you so you were hurt they didnt tell the cfo of ubs. Its appropriate for them not to tell anyone. Im glad they did that too. How do you have the same currency as you know greece and switzerland basically both with and people are going to say they dont have the same. Okay. You have the euro obviously and the swiss franc was tied to the euro. The drachma is now the euro. How does that make sense . I think the smb in terms of moving away certainly pleased a number of people in the populous. Good to have you, tom. Thank you. Coming up, the cofounder of retailer Nicole Miller will join us on set. As we head to break, take a look at what he said. We weve got a country that the Poverty Level is wealth in 99 in the rest of the world. Money is all over the place and the guy thats making 35,000 a year. Why dont you try that out in india or some countries we cant even name. It took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion Tim Morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft. But only moments to master paying bills at chase. Com. Depositing checks at the atm and transferring funds on the mobile app. Technology designed for you. So you can easily master the way you bank. It says here the global currency wars are waging on. In many brands like you wage war, right . Yeah. And cartier are rising prices in parts of the world. Lets hear from another top tier brand name. We have with us on set bud konheim. Founder and ceo of Nicole Miller which has a better name than bud konheim. If youre going to do highend stuff. There was a reason we didnt call it bud konheim. You didnt feel bad about it . No. When nicoles mother gave birth to nicole her thought was whats a good brand name for little girl. So she called her nicole. How is business in general in this bifurcated world. Dent use bifurcated i dont know what the hell that means. All right. Have you done well ive been in business a long time. Right. In every upturn downturn, whatever you call it theres always some guy whos really doing well. Naen every upturn theres always some guy doing badly. So to do a cnbc squawk box show and talk a sweeping brush stroke over the whole thing doesnt mean anything to the individual guys that are doing it. And also this show is about stock and stuff like that. So you go and pick your stock. You cant do a whole sweeping thing and expect to make out. So lets talk about what you want to talk about. How would you say business is right now for you. If i was apple, i would say its great. Starbucks which is the most overpriced cup of coffee in the world is great. Dunkin donuts is cheaper. Nicole miller were doing kind of well. Its not phenomenal. And to your point with the big audience out there, its not that great. Its not the enthusiasm the mood is not great. Why not . Well all the factors that go into your makeup. All of the political stuff going on. Everybody getting killed. All that business. Theres a whole years and years and years of kind of no passion, no enthusiasm. And i dont want to make this a political show but i dont want to get into it. But you have a habit of doing that. Just keep going. Theres no enthusiasm. Do you know when i felt it first . The lack of enthusiasm . When netanyahu spoke with congress im not interested, not really involved in the israeli thing but i watched this speech because everybody was watching the speech. And he got on with this incredible passion about the shared values we have about america. America this and america that. And we do this together we do that. And this is what weve done for the world. I said for the first time i started getting a thrill about listening to the star spangled banner at a ball game again. I use ared to get thrilled about the marine corps him. Six years i havent gotten turned on and neither has the customer. The customer doesnt trust politics, dont trust anything. So theres the atmosphere. How do you expect to have Good Business with everybody believing its higher nothing is going on the corporate stuff they make a claim. You dont believe what they say anyhow. So now youre expected to go out and buy into the brand. We had people saying it more clearly than you said it. Sorry. No. That people that talk you dont want to be outspoken anymore are watching him speak about the United States was the way they wished the president would speak about the United States. Exactly. They werent quite as wasnt about what he said. It was about the enthusiasm. I dont know. There are a lot of one group pitted against another. Thats another thing. The hate level in the country is way up. Right. And i always i grew up at a dinner table disagreeing but not being disagreeable. You cant be disagreeable. Thats out the window now. Everybody cant Say Something in opposition to someone else they have to be disagreeable and nasty and drag up stuff irrelevant to the discussion and throw personal stuff to make points. And is this directly connected to retail sales . Absolutely. What do we sell . We sell feeling good. Thats all we sell. Were not providing water or air or anything like that. That would explain this whole minimalist movement out there where people are trying to reduce the amount of clothing in their closet to 50 items. Have you seen all this stuff . Weve done it. My wife and i have done it. We reduced we just built a new house. Two bedrooms. The kids say how will we sell that . Well be dead, we dont worry about that. So yeah. Maybe minimalist is part of the thing. If you look around lets get back to your subject. Trying to run a show here and get commercials. Luxury. So ill go out and get myself a luxury item a couple of weeks ago that was 50 bucks. Less than 50 bucks. Harrys raisezor. Have you heard of it . Yeah. Had him on the show. Do you shave . Your legs. You dont have to tell me. I didnt see your legs through the table. I do not shave my legs. You dont . Havent in awhile. If you do tell me how you like it. Anyhow, its wonderful. Ive been shaving with gillette since your legs . Yeah. Its luxury. But fast not exits not expensive. Its expensive for a razor. Not really. Do you call the consumer she . A lot of guys in business call the consumer she. How flush is she right now if she were in a better mood . Ive been doing this a long time. Recession, depression hurricanes, tornado, all that kind of stuff. In america theres money out there to buy anything. Look at apple. Not overpriced but the high end of everything. Theyve got a line out the door. Starbucks, lines outside the door. Harrys razor, not the most expensive in the world. But on and on if youre watching the stock market i dont know what the stock is but the merger whats that all about . Its what you call high end. And the latest thing is this far fetch. You watching that . Boutiques. They put a boutique over a billion now. And i think i dont know if theyre public or not, doesnt matter to me. What matters to me is the retail model that weve grown up with 120 years. Its broken. Its broken but it hasnt really fallen apart. But its falling apart. And the whole catalyst of the internet and everybodys finding a way to adjust their life and culture and what you talk about. Theyre all doing it through the internet and kind of everybodys paying attention. Everybodys using as usual the jargon that goes with the internet. Social media, networking. Nobody really understands it except some of these guys taking advantage of it. All right. Thank you. Weve got a pretty good idea of whats going. Nicole miller makes nice ties. We licensed it out now. The ties were all sense of humor. Now were going back to it. Thank you. Thank you. Great to see you. Coming up a setback for u. S. Attorney preet bahara. Thats next. Xco0 setback for preet bahara. He had a request rejected to reconsider an insider trader ruling. Kate kelly joins us with more. Thanks so much. A federal Appeals Court on monday opted not to rehear a trader case that overturned the convictions of two key defendants. Almost certainly leaving them and third defendants as free men. The ruling came as something sof a surprise to the Legal Community where many had expected to see new yorks Second Circuit to hear arguments. At least with the original three judge panel that heard it if not with the entire court. Its a powerful statement because it means that not only has Preet Bharara seen more than more of these 80 Insider Trading convictions since 2009 lost. But federal judges are saying he basically brought some of these under the wrong pretenses. Making it tough tore bring new cases. Baharas office is currently pursuing or to let the Appeals Court decision stand. Which apparently hes not pursuing. Before the attorney can request, it must approve the office to do so. A blessing theyre work on getting. Unclear what the timetable is. Theyd like to pursue that if they could. Daring him to bring it to the supreme court. They want him to bring it to the supreme court. And Justice Scalia has indicated theres a lack of clarity here and there needs to be a better defined Insider Trading code. You also heard of that with mark cuban, for example. There are bills circulating that would better codify Insider Trading. Its sort of the collection of prior cases and other laws. But theres not a clearly defined Insider Trading law. And maybe we need one. Maybe we dont need any. Well thats another story. Thank you kate. Thank you. Coming up reaction to the lackluster jobs report. The chief economist from barclays and top strategist from wells fargo joins us next. I care deeply about the gulf. I grew up in louisiana. I went to school here. Ive been with bp ever since. Today, i lead a team that sets our Global Safety standards. After the spill we made two commitments. To help the gulf recover and become a safer company. Weve worked hard to honor both. Bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. And five years of Research Shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. Weve toughened Safety Standards too. Including enhanced training. And 24 7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. And everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. What happened here five years ago changed us. Im proud of the progress weve made both in the gulf and inside bp. Getting down do what looks like is going to be a tough opening to the market since fridays brutal jobs number. Where should you put your money in the Second Quarter . Stick around that find out. Plus could a deal with iran change the worlds economic landscape . The president s calling it a once in a lifetime opportunity. The critics say not in our lifetime. A closer look at the agreement and the ripple effects coming up. Plus is dominos a tech company that makes pizzas . Patrick doyle here to explain their strategy for both consumers and investors. Get the door. Squawk box begins right now. Live from the most powerful city many the world, new york, this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. We are first in business worldwide. I am joe kernen along with Michelle Carusocabrera and scott wapner. Becky and andrew obviously both off today. Futures this morning indicated sharply lower after trading not being able to react on friday to the weak employment numbers that we saw for march. You can see down about 130 on the dow jones. Were right around flatlining on most of these averages i guess, except for the nastdaq. Down about 32 points. With the s p indicated down about 15. And dont look now. I know it seems like the market has not been above where it was when apple was added to the dow, but purely coincidence at this time. It doesnt mean its going to stay here does it wapner . Absolutely not, joe. Tough to double from there. Thats just you know thank you, dow jones for adding apple. Curse of the dow. Thanks. Appreciate it. Yeah. At least things are symmetrical. At least we get a heads up to what might portend. Its happened before. It happens. Next thing you know cisco. Microsoft. Intel. Right. Its like they want to keep a lid on the dow or something. 18,000 is enough. Youre right. Who needs that. Here are this mornings headlines. While investors digest fridays job report another is on the agenda. Me measure of the u. S. Services sector. Expected to show lightly Slower Growth than a month ago. Greeces finance minister varoufakis says they will meet all to the creditors. Ahead of a loan payment to the imf later on this week. Class action suit against google over its android operating system has been withdrawn. The plaintiffs claimed smartphone buyers were harmed because google forced to make google applications the default options. All right. More labor pain in the oil patch. The Mining Industry shed 11,000 jobs in march. That bring this sectors total loss up to 30,000. Now the ripple effects are starting to show up in other part os they have labor markets as well. Good morning morgan. Good morning, scott. Thats right. So the ripple effects from Lower Oil Prices are certainly weighing on the market. The Mining Industry shed 30,000 jobs in the first quarter. And just to put that in perspective, it added 41,000 jobs in 2014. That means 3 4 of last years gains have already been erased. Now, as rig counts have plunged, weve seen data follow suit with the most layoffs coming from Oil Field Services coming from halliburton, baker hughes and economists expect the blood letting to slow down by summer. But the effects are now weighing on other industries. So take a look at manufacturing. Thats going to be an area to focus on moving forward while the number of layoff announcements within the Energy Sector is starting to slow down theyre picking up amongst industrial goods. Now, thats according to Challenger Gray and christmas. That also shed a seasonally adjusted jobs last month according to the Labor Department with categories like machinery suffering the biggest losses. Thats going to continue. Expect that to continue as Companies Including u. S. Steel Service Notices to thousands of employees. As weve seen Oil Prices Bring contraction into oil production. These companies are now going to be feeling the pain as well. Guys, back over to you. Thank you so much. The futures pointing to a lower open after fridays jobs report. This is of course the first time we get a chance to react too it. Investors worry now about a growing pile of weak data. Joining us now, wells Fargo Private investment. Barclays chief economist and our guest host is david darst. Great to have you here. Michael, you saw the jobs report on friday and your reaction was . Well certainly we said it laid an egg. It was a weak number. Much worse than everybody expected. I think if we take a step back we were looking for job growth to slow anyway. The economy was running very solid at the end of last year. Not that much though. Right . 317,000 was the threemonth average pay setting into year round. And thats not sustainable. We felt it would come down to the 2 to 2. 25 range. But march was softer than expected. You think were going to get a snap back . I think something in the 200,000 a month range is acceptable. I dont think the trend has shifted towards permit innocently lower growth. Did the jobs report force you to rethink your targets for the market where you think were going to be . No. Actually, i think i would fade the march number quite frankly. One report doesnt make a trend, obviously. If you look at the labor market the Unemployment Rate has come down. 4 in the last six months. So the labor market is still fundamentally strong. We still think it gives the fed the ammunition it needs. And the other interesting thing is if you look at core inflation, still running at 1. 6, 1. 7, its a stones throw from the feds target. When you look at the dual mandate, youre talking inflation close to where it needs to be and jobs certainly where it needs to be. Michael and darryl five things have led to a slow first quarter. Number one, the west coast port situation, number two, the weather. The other three id love your thoughts on. Oil being down the dollar being up and finally the consumer saving this savings from gas being lower rather than spending it. Savings rates gone from 5 to 5. 5 to 5. 8 of disposal income. How will it play out the rest of the year . You dont spend all of it up front. You do save a little. You elongate the shock, if you will. So consumption grew 4. 4 in the fourth quarter. We do think its weather affected this quarter. We think growth has been shaved by about a full percentage point off of weather. So i would say the consumer is behaving normally in this scenario. The dollar story and energy story we think will be with us throughout the course of the year and will keep headline rates of gdp growth more modest in the 2. 5 range. I agree that the Consumers Behavior in a reasonable fashion, but look for the dollar and energy to be slight drags as we go through the rest of the year. If that in fact is the case, does that mean the stock market has some sort of bigger correction than weve seen to date . I think the returns of the stock markets got slow a little bit. And davids right. We would expect oil and the dollar to kind of be in a trading range. Not be the headwind it was. But remember when you come into q1 and q2 with flat to negative Earnings Growth were back in this conversation we were in a couple years ago. Yooer not at 11 and 12 times earnings like in 2012. Were at 16 going on 17 times earnings. So if you dont get that Earnings Growth there is limited on the upside. But the fundamentals dont look like theyve rolled over yet. I would caution people on the february and march jobs data to not try and make that a trend. I think we will see a strength in q2. Its not like every piece of Economic Data up until the jobs report was great. Right . So pmis were weak. Other reports were squirrely as well. That doesnt have you at all concerned . Were not talking about a string of great reports with one outlier of a bad jobs report. Yes. Overall, q1 data was soft. But to davids good point on the consumer, the Consumer Confidence came in at the second highest of this recovery. Borrowing costs are down. Bank lending is up. The stronger dollar will be a tail wind for the consumer. So all the ingredients are there for a Second Quarter and even second half. Think the reversal was important. 17 million in auto sales in march after three months of declines suggests thats a clear weather effect in my view. Personal spending in march should show a solid rebound. So the fed moves in . September. Guys thanks. Thank you. Coming up a special delivery to the squawk set but can dominos deliver for investors . We speak to the companys ceo next. Barbara just bought a bike. She wrote a tweet about it. You cant learn much from that. But take data from millions of tweets combine that with your companys supply chain and sales data. Apply ibm analytics and expertise, and all of a sudden, you can learn which bikes to build what to make them from, where to sell them. Because barbara and the world just told you how to build a better bike. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. Welcome back to squawk box. The futures now are suggesting a sharply negative open after fridays job report. Right now dow lower by 120 points. Nasdaq lower by more than 30. So Corporate News this morning, sources telling me federal Law Enforcement agencies recently contacted several top herba herbalife members. In separate story, they have also received inquiries about irregular trading in its stock. And one more line herbalifes shareholder telling us last night he has no intention of eliminating his position in the company or making any major changes. There had been some speculation he might be looking to change his position after he changed his filing status with the s. E. C. You can see shares off nearly 6 . One way to view dominos, its a tech Company Selling pizza. Reshaping on all major platforms. Phone, web tv and voice. Its part of what dominos calls in its words, the anywhere program. Stock up 30 in the past year. Joining us now is dominos ceo and president. You brought us some stuff, were going to definitely check that out very closely. In a second. Your ears may have been ringing. We talked about dominos a few times because we kick back and forth mcdonald in exactly the way they should approach. And off camera i called it existential moment. In corporate history, which you presided over at dominos a couple years ago, but i now hear is in textbooks for thats where the expression comes from. A textbook case of how to handle something. You know what i mean . Because you did not decide im going to make a kale pizza with a free range crust or something. You stuck with pizza. Yeah we did. If you want pizza, you know what youre getting. You dont need some politically correct nongmo pizza. You went to your roots. People still buy more pepperoni more than anything else. Thats what im going to have. Its my prerogative to have it. Ill deal with it 50 years from now if i have to. What did you you looked at the whole company from top to bottom. How many years ago was that . Five six years ago. The advertising campaigns. Exactly. Mea culpas involved. Thats right. People didnt love the pizza. We had to get that right. And then we came out and we decided there was a nice midwestern straightforward way to communicate this to look in the camera and say were sorry. We get it. You didnt like the pizza and were going to fix it. We showed people talking about how much they didnt like it before. And we were double digit up that quarter. What would you tell mcdonalds right now . Do you have any advice on how to reexamine the company . Mcdonalds is theyve got an amazing brand. Its huge. Theyve got a lot to work with. I think theyve got to get the food right first. Fresh and fast. If they get the food right, its going to work. Hows your mobile strategy working out . Unbelievable. Half is mobile. Mobile has grown faster than online. We actually Just Launched on pebble and android washes. We launched last week on samsung so you can now order on your television. Are you going to be on the apple watch . Were looking at that. We want to be anywhere. We want to be within arms reach. We want people to be able to pick up any device anywhere. We had dom that you could do it with your voice. Order off technology with your voice. So we want to make it easy for people to order dominos. Then well bring it to you. That is something other Forwardthinking Companies are doing. Panera spending all kinds of money on ways of ordering the same stuff just keep making it the same stuff as good as you can, as fresh as you can. Make it easier and faster. But move into the 21s century. Thats right. So when i order dominos on my cell phone, is that a mobile order . Not if youre picking up yeah. Thats as advanced i was talking about the app. Hold on. Because ive got bluetooth turned on and doing it through my radio in my car. Does that count . You order dominos through your radio . The phone is hooked up to oh. I get it. Weve got a deal with fords sync program. How big is the ncaa going to be for you . Its be ig. We sold 1. 8 million pizzas last year during the tournament. Im looking forward to michigan next year. They didnt quite get there this year. But im a big ten guy so im cheering for wisconsin. Forgive me for not knowing this. What percentage of your stores are Company Owned relative to how many are franchised . Were 100 franchised outside. Were 90 inside. Where are you on the issue of pay following the news from mcdonalds and walmart and others . The great news is the economy is moving. It is getting better. Its getting harder to hire people. Its why i think youve seen a lot of these announcements around pay. Fridays jobs report i think it was a blip. I think the reality is the labor market is tightening up. And weve got to respond to that. Its getting harder to hire people. That drives wages up. Are you going to do it . Weve got to get the right people for our business. Were a majority franchise. So they make that decision themselves, but for our own stores i mean weve got stores in queens brooklyn, and the bronx. Weve got to pay more to get people right. What if you have an outlier, a franchisee that isnt playing ball the way they should. Weve got contractual rights. But theyre entrepreneurs too. Theyre entrepreneurs. Thats what makes the system work. Over 90 of our franchisees started as hourly workers in our stores. Worked their way up through the system, became a manager, bought a store. I mean we are this little entrepreneurial factory. So how do you decide to open up a new area and can you borrow some of existing areas . Yeah. We still have some areas where theres room just to build new stores with new territory. I mean weve got a little over 5,000 stores in the u. S. Today. We can probably build at least another thousand. When do you stop you know trying to add new items . I guess never, but that can be put on the back burner at some point, cant it . Do you need more items . Weve only launched two things in the last three years. We launched a specialty chicken product and pan pizza almost three years ago now. We think our menus as big as it needs to get. Probably what youll see from us if we launch something new, we probably take Something Else off. Salad would be tough to watch . Weve got salads in about a third of our stores. They do okay. Number one thing consumers ask for with their pizza and then we dont necessarily sell that much of that. It is the number one thing people ask for with their pizza and its still not a big seller. How many can you do tonight . Its a one versus one game. Im sure were selling a million pizzas tonight. Did you see the nohitter stuff . How does it work now . The exact rule is you go onto mlb. Com and so its opening day today and so the first two no hitters of the year you go online, you order, we give away 20,000 free pizzas. Last year we gave them all away in ten minutes. Put this on your alert thing in your phone. Theres been a lot more no hitters in recent time. We do the first two. Youre a smart man. How about harbaugh . Im a fan. Harbaughs terrific. Hes right around the corner now. Yeah. That should be exciting. Michigan should be good. Theyre going to be. Theyre going to be. Im blue through and through. Well get it back. In the days of the fab five and stuff, got to bring that back too. Michigan states been stealing some thunder. You know what . John is phenomenal. Hes the basketball coach at michigan. He is absolutely amazing. I love the Basketball Program where he is right now. All right. Yea we get to eat now. This interview went on forever. No im kidding. Thank you. Its great to have you in studio. As many elsmells delicious. Coming up some californians shaking their head. Well explain why after the break. Through good times and bad. Our experienced investment professionals are one reason over 85 of our mutual funds beat their 10year lipper averages. So in a variety of markets we can help you feel confident. Request a prospectus or summary prospectus with Investment Information risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Woman its been a journey to get where i am. And i didnt get here alone. There were people who listened along the way. People who gave me options. Kept me on track. And through it all my retirement never got left behind. So today, im prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. Every someday needs a plan. Lets talk about your old 401 k today. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise california governor jerry brown looking at water restrictions in the state. The governor pushing back of applying the new rules to the farming industry which using the bulk of the water. He says extending the restrictions to the farmers would amplify the harm economically. The governor announced a crackdown on residential and business use of water last week that will last nine months. It aims to reduce water usage by 25 . The use restrictions will focus on irrigation of lawns and other outdoor landscapes including large campuses, golf courses, and cemeteries. Coming up, stanford professor and chairman ed lazire joins us to talk jobs and when the fed will raise rates. Lets look at the futures. Thats how they look at this hour, about an hour before the open. The dow would open down 127. The s p down 15. Were back after this. Hy pause to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . 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Com welcome back to squawk box. Lets look at some stocks in the news this morning. Tesla delivered more than a 55 increase over a year ago. Real Estate Investment trust ventas will buy Arden Health Services for 1. 75 billion in cash. Cincinnati. No. Vetas. This is ventas. I stand with what i tell you. It was a hospice, but it was vetas. This is different. I should have known because my mother actually had had the vetas hospice care which was also based there. Got it . Thats my correction. Yeah. All right. Sorry. So noted. What time is it . This wont happen often. All right. Qualcomm is under pressure this morning. A teardown of the new Samsung Galaxy s6 phone says it does not contain the qualcomm modem. Breaking news. Steve leisman has the details. Thanks very much. Bill dudley speaking now giving a speech. We could tell you what it says. Hes the first fed guy fed official to speak since the disappointing jobs report saying the jobs slowdown was broad based, in his opinion. And raising questions about whether that report indicated a more substantial slowing in the economy. He says q1 is likely to be weak around 1 in his estimate. And he said the surprises weve seen so far are temporary factors though there is some Downside Risk overall to growth from oil and the dollar. Want to give you specifically comments on the oil and the dollar. Says the dollar rises likely week to week trade. The strength means significant shack to the economy. Oils decline will lead to further drop. And will create meaningful drag on the economy. On policy he says the rate hike path is likely to be relatively shallow. And he talks about the fed funds rate at 3. 5 . A dovish dudley this morning. Though i will say hes not necessarily ruling out an earlier rate hike. Just saying its data dependent. Right now it looks weak to him. Back to you. Okay steve. Thank you. Were going to spend some time with david darst who is well prepared as you always are before we get to ed lazear. If you had to choose on which list to run, theres reasoning you like europe. I think ive heard your signs of whats a correction of whats a bear market. That might be good for us to know right now. Were at a point where six years of maybe bull markets dont die of old able. Certainly people are questioning whether this continues. John templeton who lived to be 98 years old, he said bear markets are born on pessimism, grow of skepticism mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. I believe were in a period of skepticism moving to optimism. If the economy picks up later this year. The bear market checklist is the fed tightening. Doesnt seem like its going to. Even if they raise rates. I agree. The rate of change will be small, but it is the difference. Joe, michelle scott, a couple of months the second condition for a bear market to ensue is recession looming. Doesnt seem like it but the factory orders durable goods orders which scott alluded to the ism numbers. Its probably out now. Supposed to come out at 8 30. The number last time was 56something. So youve seen chicago purchasing. Last week it was 45 which is very very below expansion. So that ones up in the air now. On a shortterm basis, no. Theyre expensive. 17 times, 16 times of on a longterm basis, theyre overvalued. The seller pe is 27. Thats this tenyear average adjusted pe. On a shortterm basis, okay. Next is the transportation, the small cap and the bank stocks underperforming welltive to the market. Two of these three are the banks and the transportation stocks that have come airlines what does that tell us . Its basically what you said earlier. The manufacturing and the strong dollar have reduced the rate of you got half of these saying its over. Half of these thats why the market is acting the way it is. Its stalled right now, joe. It is looking. It is waiting to see some clarity on these things that is it like the ben franklin close. If you get six are good five are bad. Its not that exact is it . Why are you saying skepticism to optimism . I think the optimism is going to be driven by the low energy prices, these people starting to spend. Theyve been saving the income gain from the lower goose lean prices. The bond yield spreads, are they widening or narrowing . So right now 4. 5 are saying keep going. And this is basically a soft spot. Tom brady getting sacked a couple of times. Thats what this is. We think i think, the rest of this year the market will end up higher. What the market has basically lacked in strength it will make up for in length. And the economy. Weve got more now. For more on the economy, ed lazear joins us now. He is a senior fellow and former council of economics chair. And someone that were always glad to see because of your expertise in the labor markets. And we always talk about jolts and you always explain it so well to us and we could use it. After fridays number were in all of the you know its a great job market. Its not a great job market. Wage. Where are we after your view on friday . Id say dont read too much into any one month. The reason i pay more attention to this one is its not just one month. Its a series of indicators all of which almost all of which are pointing in the same direction. As you mentioned, jolts is an important statistic that we look at. It stands for joeb openings and Labor Turnover survey for those of your viewers not familiar with it. What that gives us is the number of hires per month, numbers of layoffs and so forth. Theres a lot you can learn from that. Unfortunately jolts which has actually comeback and comeback pretty significantly is down. And so its declined over the past month. It went from 5. 2 to about 5 million. Its a pretty significant drop. Coupled with that the household numbers were not good. And in addition to that one of the things you didnt mention on your show friday i was surprised because i know youre tuned into this. One of the important indicators is hours of work. That fell as well. It could be weather related. I know you had a tough winter out there. But, you know whether its weather or not. Those things are seasonally adjusted. The hours declining can give you about 350,000 jobs negative. So thats a big statistic. The trends are down. If we look at the last three months as compared to the previous nine months thats also negative. All of those things are bad. The one positive is of course the wage growth weve seen this month. That tends to work in the other direction. Whether thats a blip or will be sustained as another issue. Maybe theres a little weather in there. Maybe its a little dollar strength, do you think. Or what do you attribute it to . Whenever we think the economy is finally safely above stall speed, it seems like we get some of these numbers. Well, it seems to be happening almost every year. I mean you get a takeoff and then the spring comes and it seems to slow down. Again, we blamed the weather last year. That might have been part of it. I think it i dont think its the dollar by the way. I think first of all, the dollar is affected by trade patterns not only affecting trade patterns. So you have to say which is driving which. Its certainly not clear to me whats going on there. But the other point that i think the most important point is that most of the evidence suggests that movements in the dollar dont have very strong effects on the economy particularly on our economy because unfortunately were not as trade oriented as perhaps we should be. And so you do get some effects, no doubt. But those tend to be relatively small. And i dont think thats whats causing the action right now. Are slowly, though, workers getting in the drivers seat in terms of having more choice and well start to see some gains there . Well there is some good evidence for that. First of all, thats a general trend you see after a session. First thing you see happening is that the Unemployment Rate declined. Then the next thing you see happening is wages tend to grow. One could argue thats the part of the cycle we are at right now. Its a possibility. Again, i wouldnt place too much weight on it because it is one month and weve seen those wage numbers being volatile in the past. And sow again i wouldnt think too seriously about that number being indicative. And im also certainly not worried about it being an indication of high inflation. At least in the future. But thats a different issue. And the question is how the fed reads this and whether theyll decide that its time to raise Interest Rates as a result of those wage numbers. I doubt that very seriously. Do you think its as simple as progrowth policies are what we need to finally get weve almost said that those dont matter anymore. Because the economy after six years of no progrowth policies really is doing pretty well. But is that what we really need to get to unshackle the u. S. Economy. I wouldnt say the economy is doing well. I would say the economy is back to a speed thats slightly below its 30year average. Prerecession 30year average. Never recovered. Were about 15 down from the gdp that we would have had had we not had a recession in a slow recovery. And during the recovery weve never had growth rates that are consistent with the kinds of growth rates we had in the previous 30 years. So thats not exactly a strong economy. I think there are many things we can do. You know weve talked about them many times before. My usual list includes tax reform trade, budgetary some kind of budgetary consolidation where we think about longterm deficits and so forth. And then the final one, of course, is regulation. I know youve talked a lot about that. Those are so yesterday. Those are so every one of them is so not progressive and so yesterday. And infrastructure and minimum wage. And why is the savings rate rising and the retail sales and consumption sales so weak in spite of the Consumer Confidence numbers uptick. Why do we have that softness in the consumer side and the savings rate rising . Well thats usually a sign of uncertainty. If you look at economies where theres significant uncertainty where youre worried about whats going to happen in the future you tend to see rates rise and you also see that during recessions as well. Sometimes people see that as a cause of recession. What that tells me is theres still significant uncertainty out there. Theres discomfort with the way the economy is moving. And it is true that some of the Consumer Confidence numbers have been high. By the way, those tend to be highly related to gasoline prices. We did a study of that when i was in the government and the most important factor in driving Consumer Confidence was the gasoline price. So we may be seeing some of that being reflected in Lower Oil Prices. Thats certainly part of it. All right, ed. Weve got to run. Appreciate it. Thank you. My pleasure. Thank you. When we return questions remain about the preliminary agreement with iran to curb the Nuclear Weapons program. We go inside the deal find out what it means for america. Thats coming up next. Check out treasuries at this hour. 10year yield 1. 84 . Boy once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. One day, it started to rain and rain. Water got inside and ruined everybodys everythings. The house thought she let the family down. But the family just didnt think a flood could ever happen. The reality is floods do happen. Protect what matters. Call the number on your screen or visit the website to learn more. My feet felt so heavy at the end of the day. They used to get really tired. Until i started gellin. I got dr. Scholls massaging gel insoles. When theyre in my shoes my feet and legs feel less tired. Its like walking on a wave dr. Scholls massaging gel insoles, im a believer iran points to reenter the Global Economy if the deal is confirmed by june 30th. Heres Michael Hayden who joined us in the last hour. I understand the president s broad concept here that we can perhaps bring iran more further, more integrated into the community of nation. Thats a highrisk task in itself. But in addition to that youve got the subtask of actually doing that process well. And so far i think the jury is out. With more on that and other geopolitical headlines, senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for peace. Good to have you here. Thank you. President obama telling tom friedman over the weekend that the deal is the best path to prevent iran from getting a nuclear bomb. Do you agree . It depends on what the deal is. I think the version of the deal revealed in the last few days was a strong deal. Much stronger than people anticipated. The big question is now whether iran is operating off that same framework. If they are, then i think it is quite a strong deal and cynics would be hard pressed to find better alternatives. They say theyre going to cheat. Do you think theyre going to cheat . It certainly is within the realm of possibilities. This an engagement between two parties who deeply mistrust each other. Iran certainly has a long history of kind of cheating on its Nuclear Program and being quite repressive towards its own population. The character of the Iranian Regime isnt going to change overnight. But theyre going to have enormous incentives not to cheat because they will risk the integration theyre trying to pursue. What do you say to allies in the middle east who actually dont get as good a deal as iran . Who we told you cannot enrich. Yet were going to let iran enrich. What are the ripple effects in the region because of this if it comes to pass of course . Sure. Obviously the israelis are most concerned. They believe that an iran with an advanced Nuclear Program constitutes a threat. But has well over a hundred Nuclear Weapons, theyre perhaps a year away from one. What about our middle eastern partners . I was going there. Sorry. Its okay. I think in the coming weeks youll see tremendous outreach from the United States to the gulf arab countries. This nuclear detente doesnt mean interests. You will see a security pact sign with them. But those details will need to be worked out. Looking at this moment for the president , were talking about reestablishing relations with cuba trying to make this move with iran. When we look back on this is this going to look like and i asked this last hour. Is this going to be like a nixon and china moment or more jimmy carter . I think thats a fair question. And we wont know. I think this is something that we will look back five ten years from now. Worst Case Scenario it was a deal which was merely transactional. Iran grabbed its incentives and reconstituted a Nuclear Program a year or two later. Best Case Scenario we look back and say this is what brought iran back into the International Community. This is what facilitated within iran. And, you know president obamas argument is to say thats a worthy gamble. Worst Case Scenario iran doesnt pose a Real Security threat to the United States. Thats tell me what the worst Case Scenario is. A year or two from now we look back and say iran wasnt sincere about making a nuclear compromise and well have to go back to the coercive sanctions regime that weve pursued up until now. Is that even going to be possible or is europe going to go along with that . Its pretty obvious its iran which has reneged on its end of the deal then certainly the countries that constitute the p5 1 revert back. Great to have you back on. Thank you. Thank you. All right. Still to come this morning, were going to catch up with jim cramer find out what hell be watching this week in the markets. And a programming note. Tomorrow on squawk box, the ceo of lane bryant. You wont want to miss that. 7 40 eastern tomorrow morning. More squawk in just a moment. Stick around. [ radio chatter ] [ male announcer ] andrew. Rita. Sandy. Meet chris jackie joe. Minor damage or major disaster, when you need us most, were there. State farm. Were a force of nature, too. Lets get down to the new york stock exchange, where jim cramer joins us now with some negative numbers on the futures from the jobs report, i think, jim. Were you thinking about those numbers on friday after they came out . They were a little bit surprising. Well, you know i just think that a huge chunk of the market really doesnt care about these numbers. I mean this market has been dominated by mckesson and amerisourcebergen and activist. These things mean nothing to them. If you want to get long emerson today, i think youre going to have some tough slogging. This is not an environment where you want to be able to buy 3m at least until like 11 30. 100,000 jobs here or there is not going to determine things. I think theres a lot of companies that are going to report sub par quarters but they may not even matter because the futures lets say theyve obviated themselves because theyve reflected a lot of companies that no one really cares about anymore. Really. So were flat for the year sort of. Well internally theres just tremendous fluctuations. And i wonder whether this isnt the moment you want to buy oil, because if the dollar did peak out, the stocks are going to come back. I wonder whether you dont keep coming back to kraft, to valiant, the big money growth guys care about, because theyre not trading the futures. Someones trading the futures. Making a case immediately that this market all trades in lock step. You know, i dont know. This is a market dominated by tesla and netflix. By twitter, by facebook and by these health care stocks. Its not dominate by u. S. Steel. Youre not buying newcorps here. And this isnt even an alcoa market. So these futures reflect, i dont know, airlines . Its tough to get a handle what the futures reflect versus what is really being invested in right now. All right, jim. Thank you. See you in a couple minutes. Six minutes. Squawk on the street. All right, when we return im here from former guest host david darst, including names he thinks will be in the Second Quarter. Squawk box will be right back. I care deeply about the gulf. I grew up in louisiana. I went to school here. Ive been with bp ever since. Today, i lead a team that sets our Global Safety standards. After the spill we made two commitments. To help the gulf recover and become a safer company. Weve worked hard to honor both. Bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. And five years of Research Shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. Weve toughened Safety Standards too. Including enhanced training. And 24 7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. And everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. What happened here five years ago changed us. Im proud of the progress weve made both in the gulf and inside bp. Heres todays watch list. You know, fill us in after were finished. 10 00 a. M. Eastern, the ism nonmanufacturing data will be released for the month of march. Pay attention to oil prices as well rising quite a bit this morning. Tonight its the ncaa final. Wisconsin versus duke. The blue devils beat the badgers earlier in the season by ten points. Both different teams the way theyre playing at this point. Dukes been playing great. Wisconsin rose to the occasion. Beat the best team in the land. Got to back it up. But thats what they say, the best team can be the team with the most talented players. And i stress team. I dont like that if they dont shake hands. Anyway im going to shake hands we shook hands, the day we were talking about the elevator and stuff. Do you remember that . Maybe not. But thats you that didnt. Lets get some final thoughts. So david, i am excited to hear why youre very positive on europe. Bet you had some really good reasons. Joe, europe is up already 18 . Since when . Since the beginning of the year. 18 . You can buy it on a hedge basis too these days. You have these products where theyll sell the euro. But thats one of the five reasons why you want to buy europe. The euro has cheapened 10 against the u. S. Dollar, and unlike the u. S. Which you mentioned is only 9 of our gdp as exports, 50 of europes gdp as exports. That will help them. Okay. Secondly you have the quantitative easing program, which mario draghi finally brought in march of this year. Okay. Thirdly, the longterm valuations. Thats the schiller pe or the tenyear adjusted inflation pe. That thing in europe is 15. Versus 27 in the United States. Fourthly, joe. Europe is a user of oil. Not a producer of oil, like we are. And oil being lower helps euro. Helps europe. And that leads to the fifth reason, which is the gdp, which was. 9 growth last year is expected to be 1. 6 . Christine lagarde and others say will be an uptick and you can have a sixth reason if you wanted, which is the money supply growth has been quite large over there. Dont worry about greece. None of the things he just said would be impacted. You dont care . Greece comes or goes or otherwise. Could lead to some shortterm volatility, no question about it. The concept of a unified europe that people want to keep going into rather than somebody finally leaving could be mentally destabilizing. But thats a shortterm thing. Its all going to keep going. Look at the spanish and italian bond yields. 1. 2 . Look at the french. 4 . Nobodys worried. 2 for germany. Joe, also buy japan. Also think about taking some money off the table for reits and putting them into mlps, which have been beaten down. Thanks david. Our thanks to david darst. And make sure you guys join us. Youre back . Yes, tomorrow. Squawk on the street is next. Swing, batter batter swing, batter batter good monday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. First chance for the market to react to fridays disappointing jobs number and it has set up some bearish action to start the week. Get ready for earnings season as well. Alcoa hits on wednesday. Oil back above 50 this morning as the saudis raise prices again, recovering from that tumble after the iran nuclear deal. Tenyear is below 185, a fresh two