Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20141126

York. Lets take a look at new york city itself. Temperatures right now, 49 degrees. You might say how is it going to snow . Trust uts, it will happen later this afternoon. It will be snowing at 37 degrees. That can happen in the atmosphere. Were in the 1 to 3 inches range here. Heading out to long island, less than an inch there. Were looking at 5 to 8 inches of snow. Thats the case in other major cities, as well. Washington, d. C. And the 1 to 3 inch rain. The general rule here is 95 is going to be your dividing line between that heavy snow to the west and the lighter snow to the east. Still, its not going to take much today. Take a look at boston, youre in the 1 to 3 and 3 to 35 out towards 98. West, 12 to 18 inches of snow. So you have some flight problems, you obviously have driving problems. The timing on this . Its going to start at rain as it already did. Were going to watch that mix over. The rain snow line is going to drive down to the south. Later on this afternoon, a lot of the major cities will be seeing flakes coming down. Folks, if you are getting out there, make sure you take care this morning. Beyond all that travel trouble, here are the other stories were watching today. Mixed messages come out of vienna. The kingdom is likely to push for major change in output. Meanwhile, its argued some members want to defend their market share and growing supplies from nonopec countries. Oil prices look slightly higher, up by about 16 cents. 71. 25. Yesterday, wti crude closing at its lowest level in four years. We will have a live report from vienna in just a few minutes. Its a busy day on the economic fund. We have the markets closed for tomorrow. We are jamming in a lot of data today, though. Durable goods, personal income and spending, chicago pmi. Consumer sentiment move on sales, pending home sales. Michelle, of to you. Steve liesman was so excited yesterday. He just couldnt wait. Its like christmas for him. In national news, more than 40 people were arrested in ferguson, missouri, last night. Following outrage over the grand jurys decision not to indict the Police Officer in the Michael Brown shooting case. By most accounts, it was a calmer situation on the ground there. With protests nationwide, here are some of the pictures coming into the news room this morning from across the country. In oakland, california, traffic slowed to a crawl on interstate 80. Protesters blocked both east and westbound lanes. The crowds assaulted officials and started fires. In los angeles, there was a standoff at protesters and police. Traffic was brought to a stand still in multiple areas and there was a major backup in the entrance to the lincoln tunnel. Scott cohen is there with the latest. Scott. Hi, michelle. You said it is calmer here, a calmer night in ferguson, but thats all relative. Certainly calmer than monday night when 12 businesses were burned to the ground. But still, 44 arrests here last night. Many of them on felony charges. A number of items that were confiscated, including guns, monthly to have cocktails, this crowd is still angry over what happened over the grand jurys decision that was announced on monday night. Once again overnight, a police car, the victim of the a Ferguson Police Department Car was overturned not far away from the site where Michael Brown was shot in august. As a back drop to all of this, the officer in question, officer Darren Wilson breaking his silence for the First Time Since the incident. He spoke to abc news about that night in august. Is there anything you would have done differently that would have prevented that killing from taking place . No. Nothing . No. And youre absolutely convinced, when you look through your heart and your mind, that if Michael Brown were white, this would have gone down in exactly is same way . Yes. No question. No question. Do you think it will haunt you . I dont think its haunting. Its always going to be something that happened. Thats officer Darren Wilson speaking to abc last night. Thats certainly doing nothing to calm the tensions that continue here. But one thing that may have kept things under control, three times the National Guard presence there was on monday night, some 2200 troops in the street. Their presence is visible and then they have help tamping it down. Guys, this is not necessarily over yet. Any reaction to that view on abc last night . Did you talk to people about what they thought . You might have covered crime and interviewed a lot of Police Officers. What did you think . What did i think of what he said . You know, its very difficult to tell. Clearly, hes had a lot of time to think about it and this about what his story was. But the story hasnt changed versus what he told authorities the night of the shooting as well as what he told the grand jury. So that has been consistent. But its hard to get inside of his head. It was good good to finally hear him speak. Its difficult to tell what the reaction has been. I think a lot of people in a lot of ways are beyond just that one incident. And more looking at what are the overall issues, the severe racial tensions in this community. Tr is an ongoing civil rights litigation investigation not just with regard to that shooting, but with the Ferguson Police department. Certainly a contingent here that wants to move on, that wants to get back to life as normal. And there are those that want to honor Michael Browns Family Moving forward. The other thick theyre talking about is that Initiative Brown fans are pushing out to all officers across the country with body cameras that would, if nothing else, eliminate the confusion and the conflict over what did or didnt appear what night. Scott, behind you, it almost likes like theres holiday decorations are up. Is that what im seeing . Yeah. This is downtown ferguson. There were demonstrations last night that moved over to city hall where they got a little dicey and a little violent. This is the site on monday night where they heard about the situation, tear gas was fired here on monday night. They began trashing a lot of those businesses. So in a lot of ways, this has been the epicenter. The Police Department headquarters is right over there which is the focus of a lot of attention not just here, but worldwide. Scott, thank you very much for joining us this morning. We will talk to you again a little later today. Talking about strange juxtapositions, were going to talk about opec and what the next day or two brings to us. Steve sedgwick joins us now from vienna this morning. Steve. Yeah. Andrew, its very interesting. The russians and mexicans have been in town. If you add all all the barrels they produce, we have about 50 of supply represented. The russians and mexicans are not here now. They didnt get a deal. But everyone is trying to think now, is opec in trouble . This is the most important meeting because opec is losing control of the market. I have another tone of thought four and were going to give you that after you hear from the iranian oil minister. All the supply in the market, all the to some investors, the Market Production to the market. So, look, thats the iranians. Theyre admitting were oversupplied and its going to get worse next year. The iranians themselves are desperate to put more on line with the market. We didnt get more this week with mr. Kerry in vienna. But the point is here, the last thing he said is some believe the situation will put pressure on some investors to leave the market. Who is he talking about . I think hes talking about the saudis. It may take out u. S. Shale because at the moment, a lot of investment into shale, into the dream of Energy Independence wont happen because its too close to call. So i think theres a school of thought that says, actually, rather than panicking and rather than opec thinking weve lost control of this, theyre thinking, you know what . Lets play a longer game. As the secretary general said to me, he said, steve, were selling americans into the Global Market as part of the marshall plan. This was in the longterm plan. And, of course, the saudis, i think it was about a third of american oil only in the 70s. Now its around to 12 . Theyre looking away from the United States and looking more to asia, looking at the growth story there. Even chinese crude demand has gone up in the last 24 hours again. So i think theyre looking potentially to play a longer game. So all of those experts ive seen on our side of the channel, theyre desperate. Theyre going to cut. They have all of these kinds of issues. All of that is true but, again, theyre playing the longer game. Who can get the oil out of the ground cheaper than anyone else . Its not shale. Its 2 saudis. And i think its quite interesting to see whether they are going to play a longer game and get some accord with the iranians, as well. Opec may get some form of agreement. Back to you. Thats a really interesting question. Theyre playing a long game. It could be a very painful process and a way of getting there. How likely would you put this, odds at 50 with those two, the iranians and saudis can team up or would you put it at less than 50 fers . Well, i mean, lets face it, the iranians want to put more oil on the market. The iranians, for instance, are producing 2. 7 Million Barrels of oil a day. He said, look, if they can come to some accord and pivot east, europe demand is stagnant and quite appalling. Weve been Peak Oil Demand in the u. S. And in europe, as well. And one more point for those comment taters, where does 60 of the worlds oil reserves lie . It aint in shell the, it is not in the northeast, its in the milling east. Back to you. Thank you. Down over 20 this year. Right now joining us more with what to expect on this is tom cloza. Tom, what do you think about this . We had a guest yesterday who said he thought this was the most important opec meeting in about 30 years. Would you agree with that . I would agree. I would say its the most relevant meeting weve seen this decade, for sure. I would say theres low expectations. The expectation theres at least going to be a lip service agreement. But theyll do what they typically have done in the last meetings when they were trying to stabilize prices towards 100. Which is go back, produce all they can, and have no compliance except perhaps the saudis, kuwaittys, united arab emirates. So i think the bigger crisis for them comes about six months from now. Thats when you see Oil Beginning to dwarf demand by about a million, a million and a half barrels of oil a day. So we can do something now and theres a tendency for the market to bottom lets say in november and december for a lot of different products. But then theyre just going to get a little bit of a sugar rush and have to have a real significant meeting probably in april when they have speaking with kate kelly who covers the hedge fund in this before. She says the consensus is so bearish that there are some hedge funds who believe if the saudis surprise everybody, you could actually see crude oil when it reopens on friday rise by 15 per barrel if they manage to shock the market in some way. Oh, yeah. If you look at sentiment, and typically when sentiment goes below 0 bullish or whatever, the market is way oversold. So on that basis, everyone is so bearish, there is no one else left to sell to a sen extent. The market could ricochet higher here at any moment. I expect its going to bottom regardless of what happens in the next three weeks. This is the time of year. Its like you see a bottom temperature in january. You see an oil bottom this time of year. What would it take to actually shock the market . What weve heard all along is the market is expecting this idea that they will agree to cut to a certain extent. Theyll cheat on that. And short of them all coming up, Holding Hands together and raising their 50s in the air, what tells you that this is a more solid agreement, that these are numbers that theyll actually hit . A surprise degree of saudi arabia really takes one for the team. And they say were going to cut 700 or 800 and the emirates are going to cut and some of the other ones that have a tendency to adhere to the quota will do that. That would away surprise. I think the expectation is theyre going to announce a cut, theyre going to go back and many of the cheaters continue. They dont cheat, they leak, tale. And iran has no pretense, were not cutting, were raising output and we dont care. Iran, iraq, venezuela, no cuts. They are so far below what they need in terms of crude Oil Production for social budgets or to balance budgets and theyre below quotas, too,ite . Yeah. And iran could put another Million Barrels of oil a day in the market if sanctions were lifted. So if theyre interested in getting that revenue, they probably would have worked harder with senator kerry on that, too. So if youre looking at this trying to sgam it, if you think illustrate bottom out out here, where do you think the new range is . Is it 15 higher . This has been tricky trying to find a true range for oil over the last yeah. In the first four months of the year, brent was always around 110. I think the new range could be 65 to 85. I wouldnt be viefd to see you go higher. Theres a sense were not going to see 100 other than maybe for a moment in the day where some sort of panic hits the market. But youre not willing to say 49 is the low. I think 50 is a possibly, i think 39 is a possibility. Thats when oil starts to build. You can have a billion barrels of oil with no place to put it. Does the western United States shut down at that point . Certainly you see shale shut in. You dont see the projects that are mature and have already seen most of the investment. But youre already seeing the cuts in growth in shale for next year. We thought we would add about a million. Were still growing so were going to have more oil and its a lot more pressure on opec. Thank you so much for joining utsdz today. Coming up next, big news for movie fans. A brand new trailer for jurassic world. Weve got a first look at the next star wars film. Details after the break. Plus, in the tim cook world, the apple ceo seemingly has the midas trip inside the numbers and they are mind boggling. Squawk box returns in just a moment. The mercedesbenz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle thats just right for you, no matter which list youre on. [ho, ho, ho, ho] no matter which list youre on. Lease the 2014 cla250 for 329 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Welcome back to squawk box, everyone. Universal will reloose the trailer for jurassic world. You may have had a chance to check out the new star wars. Coming up this weekend, the trailer for star wars. It will be debuting in 30 theaters across the nation. Its said to be 88 seconds long. It will begin playing worldwide starting on monday. The films director j. J. Aip abraham confirms new moves calling it a tiny peek at what theyre working on. Star wars episode 1 the phantom menac menace debuted in 2008. Not only is apple the most valuable company in the world, but its market cap is about 70 higher. Whats more, were heading into the Holiday Shopping season, which is a huge moneymaker for apple. Joining us now, edmond lee. If joe were here, he would say, you know, the law of big numbers, at some point you cant get that big. The things the understand about apple, we have iphones and ipads, we all love our products, but theyve designed an ecosystem, where once you buy one, youre kind of compelled to buy all these other products because they interrelate with each other, they create an ecosystem. So in terms of expectations management, Holiday Shopping season, we think these phones are going to sell like hot cakes. And maybe theyll do better with the tablets, as well. Because youre talking about the ecosystem. The ecosystem only works if youre buying the whole ecosystem. Tablets are a big part of that and tablets have slowed materially. Its almost like the phone rs are too good. They in weird way made that obsolete and people are sticking to them. But theyve created this software now where you connect your phone to your laptop computer to your tablet. In a lot of ways, it doesnt matter where you have one or two devices. The thing that theyre connected to each is the thing thats compelling you. We always understood that apple was going to continue to innovate and create the next things. The next thing that we know about is the iwatch. I want to know where you are on that. And then i want to understand where you are if you ever see this famous the tv. And does it matter. The watch is going to be a careful one because it doesnt seem like its going to be as much of a musthave device. But the iwatch or the smartwatch or the applewatch is what theyre calling it, we dont know if that is something people are going to have to have. Its one of those nice, fans sis, gimmicky things. They are famous for creating things that we didnt know we wanted, right . The ipod. It was this concept of you can have all your music in one place. If they can make that watch into something that people think they have to have it. We havent had a chance to touch it or feeler enough to make a determination as to whether its going to be something that our viewers might recommend or not. There have been some questions about the music itself. How much control do they have over music at this point . Thats one of the weaknesses. One of the weaknesses, its a good point. They bought beats, you know, the head phonemaker, which more importantly included a Music Subscription Service which competes with spotify and pandora. This is what i meant about the ecosystem because it folds it into your phone, could be a watch if you get that, a laptop. Thats how they get to get people in. Its not simply about the watch or a phone, youre keeping your youre keeping your photos there, having your life stored on it. Thats where growth is ultimately going to come from for them beyond just the new devices innovating products. And how much of a growth do you find with apple . Where do you stand on that . Apple pays a trickier one. I dont really know. Its still unclear how many retail outlets will be able to accept it. Theyll go up to the thing and see if it works. Its unclear how many retailers are accepting it. Theres a fight now for owning that ecosystem, as well. The pay pal question brings up this whole idea that weve been so focused on apple as a Devices Company and maybe its really now an incredibly Great Software company thats going to do Amazing Things in software. But this is so visible and, yet, can be transformational. Can be transformational. That could be, you know, something when itunes started way back when, they barely made any money off of each itunes downlo download. In the long run, theyre going to make out. In the Holiday Season, they have a lot of cash to buy a lot of presents for themselves. Is there one thing am can buy for itself . A lot of the cash is overseas, too. There are apps made overseas. No, im not making any predictions. Okay. Ed, thanks so much. Good to see you. Coming up, youll want to hear our next story about eggs and prices. Plus, stocks are holding your record highs. A deluge of data could be a game changer. First, a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers. For trading never stops. Ane so open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say, a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move, wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box on cnbc. Im Andrew Ross Sorkin along with becky quick and Michelle Caruso cabrera. Egg farmers have a lot to be thankful for this year. Demand for food is at record highs and iowa, the nations leading egg supplier, the Agricultural Department reporting the state produced a record 1 is 1. 4 billion eggs last month. The average price for a dozen eggs in the midwest is now 2. 18. Thats a lot of proteen. That is the cheapest protein you can get. Every morning. Among headlines this hour, cbs and avoiding a blackout. Carl icahn raising his stake in Car Company Hertz from nearly 11 to 8 . He is the companys largest shareholder. Successfully pushed for Management Changes and recently won board seats on that board. Hewlett packard reporting earnings in line with estimates. The revenue number was a little weaker, too. The company said the quarterly revenue fell in almost every business segment and as a result, that stock was down. Down right now about 2. 2 . Even with a holiday shortened trading week, investors have plenty to digest and a plethora of key Economic Data this morning. Theres piles of Economic Data today pushed forward because of the holiday. Joining us on the economy is Steve Whiting and jeremy is here from ubs welt management research. So we had this gdp number yesterday that was relatively gang busters from what we expected. How about the data out today, steve . Is that going to confirm that . Timely data. Its a complete count of everyone. Its not an extrapolation of a large sample of complex data. You can ignore most of that. If were staying in the neighborhood of 300,000 or lower on insurance claims, suggesting employment is growing well over 200,000 per month. Were going to be on trak. There are different nuances, new home sales data have been weak for single family. We know that. Durable goods order data have been a problem at the beginning of every quarter. Its a distortion. Tons of data to look at. The focus on the highest quality, which is claims. And we were just showing viewers, you expect gdp growth of 2. 3 . For the coming year, yes. Were looking for an acceleration of gdp growth from 2. 2 been but thats distorted from the First Quarter from the weather up to about 2. 9 next year. And the key note for the equity markets is economic momentum continues to be profit. We think the market is going to advance at that rate, as well. Did it give you any pause yesterday to see longterm rates fall and the bond markets suggest they dont think thinks are rosy there . Its at 1. 5 . Thats on the primary gauge that they look at. Equity investors. This is the sweet spot where you have Profit Growth Strong Enough to drive markets. You dont have any inflationary pressures. Its an important story. I think we see policy divergence with the u. S. On hold for a while, increasing numbers of Central Banks around the world looking to ease and so Interest Rate convergence and die vergence around the world. But my question is, that flattening of the yield curve, he suggests that that is because the world is comfortable with the inflation rate and the growth rate in the United States. And it is not a fear of the ultimate slow crown in growth or deflation. I think there is a message here. That is that we are fairley far along on the u. S. Economic cycle. Its unreasonable to think the Federal Reserve is going to normalize monetary policy, beginning eight years deep into an economic recovery where they think the feds rate is going to be normal. By then, the Unemployment Rate will be four. So the yield curve is meaningful, but it is important to see that the yield curve is yielding four times what the german bunch are, that other safe havens around are world are incredibly overpriced to where the u. S. Is right now. So what do you do here . I think youre still long equities. Overall equities, the narrative still is that its relatively strong and if the markets are if the economy is going to accelerate and were going to have several quarters in a row of close to 3 gdp, that should support corporate profits from the high single digits. So in 2015 . So this year, we are up 12 . But profits up 9 . Roughly in line with profits, i dont think the narrative changes much. Do you think you get 9 next year . Probably pretty balanced. I think the important story is currency. Even for hedged investors, theyre the influences of Foreign Investors coming into u. S. Dollar assets. Because they believe the dollar is going to go higher, right . Its going to go higher. If youre a foreigner, its a double whammy, you buy the dollar and the dollars goes up and you get hit on both counts pt in the reverse, in the u. S. , you dont want to do that. About. Because of the currency effect. Whats been the thing that surprised each of you the most this year . Would it be the tenyear treasury . At the beginning of the year, we were at 3 , we thought he were going to 3 much 2 , 3. 4 for the year. Its been the low yields in europe, the divergence of policy where almost everyone else outside the u. S. , every central bank has been easing policy which is on the verge of tightening policy which has kept Interest Rates in this country low. Thats actually pretty good for the u. S. Economy and i think youre starting to see the fruits of that with 4. 5 gdp in the second quarter. Number two, if you think about the five yields, big issue. It has been the drop in oil while everyone is worried about geopolitics was serious risks. The ukraine, whats going on in the middle east and all the possibility of supply disruptions that the u. S. Energy revolution is putting so much energy on the market that prices go to other way. The huge surprise. Good to see you guys. Happy thanksgiving. Happy thanksgiving. When we come back this morning, a business that the yen on kick starter and is now such a Business Success story that its products can be found in 6,000 stores around the world. Thats right. 6,000 stores around the world. Well talk to the brains behind the brainy new toy that teaches girls to love engineering and science. As we head to break, stronger once again this morning trading against st euro at 1. 1. 2444. Stick around, squawk box will be right pack. Alookin good close it up got it. And then, santas helpers boarded the train, and off they went. And thats how we got it. Wowww. You guys mustve been really good this year. The magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. Comcast business. Built for business. All right. Welcome back. U. S. Equity futures at this hour, lets take a look and get you up to date on the markets. This suggests the dow would open higher by 35 points. The s p by 5 and the nasdaq by nearly 12. Making headlines this morning, twitter is in talk toes buy a Justin Bieber backed selfie photo sharing app called shots. From what i can tell, its an instagram of exclusively selfies. If you dont know what a selfie is, i cant help you. The app as more than 3 million users with nearly twothirds being women under 24. Thats the part that caught my attention last night. Women under the age of 24. Thats why bieber is an investor. And they love to take pictures of themselves. Very demure photos, im sure. Two years ago, our next guest braus her first item to the market. Tomorrow, she will have a float in the featured thanksgiving day parade. This is a company that makes toys designed to encourage girls to build things and get interested in engineering. You come by this honestly. You are a stanford educated engineer yourself. I did study engineering at stanford. Not too many women in the program and thats why i started this company. I wanted to change the equation. Goldieblox, how do these work . Most my male classmates grew up playing with legos and erector sets. I grew up with dolls and ponies and dress up. So i was a little behind. So, really, my goal was to create the toy i wish i had growing up. Through my research, i found girls love stories and characters and that was the way to hook them into building was creating this girl builder goldy and her friends and they solve problems by building machines. I love how youve embraced what would traditionally be this concept of the ditsy blond, right . Yet its not pt. Its like shes a shes a smart blond. Shes not a genius but, you know, she is willing to try and take risks and learn from failure. And thats what i really want to teach girls. This one is our new action figure and instead of a tool belt. She has the tool belt instead of the dress up fashion. She comes with a 13foot zip line that you can deploy and zep her across the room. That is cool. You went into being in 6,000 stores already for this Holiday Season. How did you do that . I think were scratching a niche here for a lot of parent. The modern parent and modern girls wants more options. You needed money to put together to build the prototype, right . I did. When i first started out, the toy industry told me this would never go mainstream, that girls like dolls and boys like building and you cant fight nature. But i knew girls were so much more mull take famulti faceted. Wvs your first order . One of our first biggest orders was toys r us. How much did they take . We went from kick starter to toys r us nationwide in only about six months. How did you get production up so fast . We hustled. So the toys are manufactured in china and i was really lucky at my job that i was working at right before i started. Our head of production used to do toy manufacturing and he helped me set up my entire supply chain. What is this . This is goldyblox and the music machine. Kids build the first precinema animation device. The audience cant see this, but i can. Its cool. We launched our very first mobile app this year, it is free, so people can cry it out. I can make your own movies digitally and print them and put them in there. How much is this . This is 30. Its manageable. Its not super expensive. Is this more expensive . The toys range from so to 60. But its really important to me that we have an affordable price point. I want every girl to get exposed to these concepts. Whats your dream, to be as big as lego . My dream one day is for goldieblox to become a global brand, everything that girls with grow up living, maybe in addition to the princess lifestyle, they can be inventor. Mass mattel called yet . No. Theyve been snooping around a little bit. But im excited about building a business i can pass down to my kids. Great to have you. So fun. Thank you. Thank you so much. Coming up next, when we return, home for the holidays. 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Because many customers dont like it when their data moves around. Can i go now . If youre going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. Today, theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. Cnbcs popular Million Dollar home competition is back. We sent reporters home for the holidays. Hes how the game works, two 1 million homes face off. Viewers decide the winner. Prepare to vote by going to cnbc. Com vote and you will check it out. Home sweet home. This historic victorian style condo is city living at its best with private outdoor space and quick access to fine dining, public transportation, and a rich, cultural center. Inside the duplex, theres 1500 square feet of ling space, hardwood floors, lofty ceilings, and architecture. Theres grant counters, and double high cabinets, three rooms, and two and a half bathrooms, theres an onsuite bathroom with a sauna, and a second room used as a study has access to a spacious back garden. Over 150 years old, this property is all about elaborate original details like the gorgeo gorgeous mantles, and double doors between rooms. Call it home for 94 97,000. This home studies home is custom built in 1999, a three car garage, back patio, and paver brick dra. Inside the 8400 square foot interior is a kitchen, huge center island, commercial gas range with two convection ovens and walk in and butlers pantry. All five bedroom are complete with walkin closet and onsuite full baths. Master with finishes of crown molding. Theres three baths on the first floor and lower level. Theres a library, two story great room, theater, reck creation, and exercise rooms and a wine cellar walking out to a pool and water fall for 950,000. Voting is now underway, and its up to you to select the winner. Which is better bang for your buck. Brick duplex or custom colonial . Vote now at cnbc. Com vote. Lets bring in our real estate broker. First of all, tell us where the homes are located. The first one is in boston, massachusetts. Oh. Its a Great College town. Its an easy walk to town. You know, its all ice, easy, urban living, right . The second house, the big house, is in dayton, ohio. The problem with dayton, ohio, beautiful as app area as it is, theres a lot of invenn story on the market in dayton. Against this house alone, theres 23 other houses in that little Million Dollar enclave, competing for buyers for that house. See, i talked to you enough to know its location, location, location, and that decides it for you. Theres 8400 square feet. How many people need or want 8400 square feel . Is this a move towards downsizing . Completely. Less is more. People dont want to maintain it. They dont want to pay for it. They dont want to garden it or do any of that. You know, they just want to say this is my house, its great, i fit, im happy. How much would the house have gone for, lets say, eight years ago . Oh, i dont know about the pricing eight years ago. I doubt its too much different. I think the houses all stay stas tick. They never really go up or down. Like the seller has 23 houses in competition and not reducing the price, just holding on. Right. I think thats what people do. They hold on unless they need to sell. You know, thats whats going on here. The other house on the market 42 days, theres three houses in competition, and this is, by far, the nicest of the houses, and you can see yourself living there. Three bedrooms, cozy, clean, walk everywhere, dont need the car. Dont need the car. Reporters went to their hometowns, so mary is from boston and courtny from dayton, ohio. Thats where i was born as well, believe it or not. I didnt know that. I thought you were born in cuba. No, my mother was. We have photos of them . Right . Prompt the photos. Show the photos. We have to tell you we have a 50 50 tie on line. Incredible. The house resinates in pictures, right . When you look theres courtney. Gorgeous house in pictures, people, like, are compelled to it, right . They want it. But when you go write a check, they think differently. You need to pick. I know what youre picking. You know what youre picking. For me, no question. Im going with boston. Im going urban. Im going with the duplex. Going with mary. See where the voters go. There you have it. Youll have the next match up on squawk on the street, and later, well crown the winner during closing bell. Thank you, happy thanksgiving. Thank you, you too. Thanks. More of the top stories to come, and over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house we go. Only there is one problem for thanksgiving traveling today. A massive winter storm. We have a live report from new yorks busy Laguardia Airport after this. Later, in the next 24 hours, butterball hotline fields more than 24,000 calls. The experts heard anything and everything helping more than 50 Million People since the project launched, but are they ready for squawk, placing a call of our own at 7 30 eastern. Will that be all, sir . Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. And often even more. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 89. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. A calmer night in ferguson. Dont shoot National Guard called out to restore order while others turned violent and disruptive and officer Darren Wilson breaks silence. Opec facing crude reality, what could be the most important meeting in decades for oil cartels. A winter storm arriving in the northeast as 46 million americans take off for the holidays. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Welcome back to squawk box requests here on cnbc, Michelle Carusocabrera, joe has the day off ahead of thanksgiving. We start with a second night of National Protests following the decision not to indict officer Darren Wilson inspect shooting death of Michael Brown. A calmer scene in ferguson after the missouri governor added hundreds of members to the National Guard to restore order there. Checking in with scott cohen in ferguson in a moment. In oakland, however, protests were ugly with fires and looting dominating the night. Shops vandalized, freeways blocked, and arrests made. There was what happened in new york city. Protesters marched from times square not United Nations and blocked a major highway, the fdr and entrance so the lincoln tunnel snarling traffic in the city and several protests were held in new jersey and boston. For the First Time Since august, wilson breaks his silence in an interview. Is there anything you could have done differently that would have prevented the killing from taking place . No. Nothing . No. Youre absolutely convinced looking through your heart and your mind that if Michael Brown were white, this could have gone down in exactly the same way. Yes. No question . No question. Something that will always haunt you . I dont think its a haunting. Its always going to be something that happened. Lets get to cnbcs correspondent in fergson this morning, scott . Hi, becky. Were in downtown ferguson. As you said, its a calmer night overnight, but not calm. Its calmer than it was on monday, which was a disaster here, but this city is still very much on edge. Theres still a great deal of tension here, and there was a lot of violence overnight. 44 people arrested, and Authorities Say that many of those were for felony charges. There were objects of all kinds thrown at Police Including cocktails, weapons seized, and once again, the protesters managed to get a hold of a police car, a Ferguson City police car tipped over and set on fire not far from where the 18yearold Michael Brown was shot and kill back in august. Police say that it is still, despite the increased National Guard presence, a challenge to say the least. Generally, i think its fair to say the officers acted with bearing and discipline tonight. We saw some protesters out there that were really out there for the right reason. Unfortunately, theres a few people that are bent on, i think, preventing this from happening in the most ideal way that it possibly could. Indeed, there is still a great deal of apger here. It seems as though the grand jury decision in the announcement on monday awake ps something here thats not going to go away right away. Even with some 2200 National Guard troops that are very visible now in the streets of ferguson, guys . There was criticism yesterday with the News Conference by the mayor whether the National Guard was brought in too late, scott. Is there an update on that . Reporter well, the update is that there was triple the National Guard presence last night and certainly seems to have an impact, but theres been some debate about that. Governor jay nixon held a News Conference after the mayor held his conference criticizing the National Guard not coming out sooner on monday night, and the governor said he would not get into the operational details only to say theyve increased the presence. What we understood going into monday was that the National Guard would not be on the front lines so to speak, they would be guarding facilities and assets and would be up to the local police and local and county police would keep order. That did not work. They became a whole lot more visible yesterday, and, again, seems to have an effect, but still, 44 arrests is nothing small in a community of 20,000 people. You know, scott, part of the focus on nightly news last night was on the idea that some of this could be people who are coming from outside the community, but some of it is happening from people who are inside the community when it comes to violence. I just wonder if you got any sort of sense of that, of how many people are there from outside the community, how much this is just an internal issue . Reporter you know, its difficult to tell. I can give you a sense of what i witnessed on monday night and the people out in the car, and it seemed spontaneous in a lot of ways. It seemed like a lot of young people out sure, out to make trouble, and, you know, jumping on top of cars and honking horns, getting out and going store to store doing damage that they did. Hard to tell if they were people from out of town, but what we know, whats been obvious, and did not take announcements on monday to reveal is that as i said, theres a great deal of anger and mistrust that maybe was seething under the surface before august, and its just boiled over. So to write it off as, oh, its just people from out of town that came in to do this is probably not giving it as much import as it zephdeserves. Thank you, scott. The weather channels keith carson has the forecast for todays storm thats hitting the northeast, keith . Kbogood morning. Bringing rain down the corridor, the snow working in west virginia. This storm, as it strengthens, wraps colder air in. Theres problems this afternoon and tonight. Theres a total snowfall accumulation. The purple a bad thing on snowfall maps. 8 to 12, 5 to 8, 12 to 18 inches. You notice the line between the heavy snow and mainly cold rain is right down 95. New york, philadelphia, down into washington, d. C. , so if you take a Cross Section and get in new york city, i think its really going to dependent where in new york you are. If you are on long island, you have the marine influence, warmer air mass, so we have an inch or less there. 3 to 5 northwest of the city. New york, itself, 1 to 3 inches, and positive news, though, guys, by tomorrow, travel will be fine. If you get out now or wait until tomorrow, youre in better shape. Yeah, yeah, yeah, thanks, keith. And the weather threat, we should say, already causing Flight Cancellations and days, and in the meantime, lets get an update from kate roger at new yorks Laguardia Airport this morning. Reporter andrew, thats right. Here at laguardia, drizzling outside, but by the afternoon, thats going to be a much different story as winter storm cato is in full effect. Now, the timing here could not be worse. 41 million americans drive to their destination this year, and 3. 5 Million People are trying to fly, and lot of pmgs and travellers were talking to here say the name of the game here today is getting out early ahead of the storm. Snows not supposed to fall in the midafternoon, and i dont know, the flight statuses seem to be okay. Im not too worried. We book early flights on holidays to get out before trouble. I got up an hour earlier because of it. Reporter but not everyones going to be that lucky. Flight aware is tracking its cancellations in realtime warning theres going to be thousands of cancellations throughout the day. At our last check, there were 225 cancellations in and out of the u. S. 180 of them in the new york area alone. Ill be looking at this all day for you guys here live from laguardia, and phil lebeau has the big picture with the airlines all day line. Back to you. Airlines making it easier for people to get out earlier, or is it on your own dime, if you want to get out of town early . Reporter its kind of becky, first come, first serve. People are rushing to get on the flights earlier. Its the busiest travel day of the year. The flights are jam packed. Three airlines have waived fees if you try to change the flight time or want to cancel all together. I think they are trying to be as accommodating as possible, but, of course, in a big storm like this, its tough to handle. You are absolutely correct. Kate, thank you very much. See you in a bit. Thank you. Plenty of business to take care of before the markets shut down for the holiday. 8 30 eastern time, the government releases three economic reports, jobless claims, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending. Dont leave yet. Joining us with more on where the markets head from here is our guest host today, chief investment stralt gist and managing partner, founder of the company, eight years . Its been eight years. Congratulations. Thank you. They said it would never last. Here we are. Thank goodness. Another thing that would never last is the bull market. Its been longer than x. Ed. Its been stronger than expected. Can it continue . Its funny. I still find, you find this, and theres five and a half years a ago, no one trusts it will last. No general news coverage. Its been a huge move. Absolutely right. This is, you know, for those who have been doing this a long time, you know, late 1990s, we had 46 new highs this year. In the late 1990s, they released the floor of the new york stock exchange, and theres the perception of whats happening, its different, and that suggests to me as a strategist it lasts longer. Just that you dont have a lot of the marginal buyers that you normally have at market top, and, unfortunately, thats why it ends that you get all the buyers in and there might be time. The reason people trust it, you continue to get more and and they got burned in 2008. A lot of the people who have not participated sold on the lows, and now they jump in on the highs. Has psychology changed . Maybe theres a chance that that is the case. By the sometime token, what worries me about the individual investor is that they are making moves that appears that lead them to believe they are safe, lets say by piling into bond funds, and they are taking more risk than they realize. They are taking a different risk, and you have a third of the companys s p 500 that actually have dividends higher than the 10 year treasury yield. Thats crazy. People buy the treasury. You buy the stock, theoretically, theres an appreciation of the underlying asset and the yields. And lay by the treasury. Its a financial crisis sering. Its scarred people. Those scars are not going to go away for a long period of time. I would just argue that you have to be very careful on what you think is safe. They are doing the same thing. Private equity and i think that is largely designed to theoretically to dampen volatility and risk. Doesnt do it all . No. The concept of illliquid investment is less risky than a liquid investment. I mean, just because youre not measuring volatility the lousy performance of hedge funds this year, for example, and you see a calpers, is there anything do you look at that and say, well, actually, maybe the hedge funds are less risk . By the nature, they are is that a misnomer . They take on risk, net exposure is lower than the overall market. Calpers, i dont know if we do business with them or not. I have certainly not talked about the issue. They are not relying on my expertise, but i think theres a strong sense in the market. You either have to go big or go home. You have to be in the right funds and be very committed to that, that strategy, otherwise difficult to make the numbers work. Are there too many of them . So many private equity firms bidding on so few assets when everys desperate for yield. You hear all the antedotes, people paying more than normally they would have when buying the stressed product. To your point, thats not going to turn out to be great investments down the road. No . I dont think so. I think there are now a good Cocktail Party thing for the thanksgiving dinner tomorrow if youre in the right crowd, i guess, the financial people at the dinner, but theres almost as many private Equity Companies as there are publicly traded companies in the United States right now. Wow. Theres 5,000 not including the pink sheet, theres 5,000 publicly traded and 5,000 private equity funds. Wow. Jason, unfortunately, youre here for the morning. We have a lot more time. Thank you. Glad to have you here. Still to come this morning, e opec leaders at the most important meeting in decades. Whats at stake . At the bottom of the hour, say no to shopping on thanksgiving day. The former toys r us ceo says no shopping on thanks giving day. Its a day for family. Later, tapping into the butter ball hot line, everything you want to know about preparing a turkey but were afraid to ask. We return in just a moment. The conference call. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. Comcast business. Built for business. Deere posting results moments ago. Check it out. Earnings and revenue topping consensus, but the full year forecast falls short of what the street was expecting. The company cites decline in sales and pull back in the global agricultural sector. Its down 3. 4 . Opec leaders gather in view nan ya ahead of tomorrows key meeting. Cnbc is there chasing down oil ministers. Steve . Reporter yeah, just had an interesting chat, actually. I just saw mr. Ramirez of venz way la walking out the hotel room, and, naturally, i caught a chat, and i put the question weve been asking, really, is opec trying to defend price or giving up on that because it cant bring anyone educational along including the russians after the meeting yesterday . Now trying to defend market share as well. They were cryptic of course, hawkish by tradition, venezuela, and they want to see a cut in production, no doubt about it, but its not them who they want to do the cutting. They want to see the gcc doing it, the uae, but especially the saudi arabia as well. The problem, of course, is they couldnt bring russians on board. In town yesterday with the energy minister, novak as well, and russians walked away saying well keep in touch and monitor, but we cannot cut for all kinds of reasons. Dont forget, the russians are the biggest producers out there, bigger than the saudis and u. S. Production as well at 10. 5 Million Barrels a day. If there was a deal on the table, prices would have rocketed. Crude was trading up four year lows last time i looked because the russians are not on board. Now opec is moving around to the way of thinking, well, we cant defend price, defend market share and i also asked are the saudis on board . They refused to answer. Thats the next meetings this afternoon. Back to you. Yes, silence says everything. Body language says a lot too, steve. None of the ministers looked thrilled to have cameras on them. How did they look before the cameras were on before coming out of the room of the meeting . Reporter yeah. Yeah. They are actually nice guys, both give you the time to talk, tw actually, and one thing to reference to the viewers. Two years ago, walked out of the meeting saying this was the worst meeting ever. It was the middle of 2012, and they were basically refused to up production, and why was he having a hard time . The iranians then, and back on the scene, put in by the man in charge in iran now, he refused to play ball. They like the iranians, they put more on the table, and the saudis are a good ally, supplier to the west over many years and have not held the throttle so to speak against the west. Interesting to see it may have dispated and coming because they cant bring out on board like the mexicans and russians. Remains to be seen, but you will be in thanksgiving. Yep. Well see you friday, though. Many, many times, im sure after we get the results. Thanks so much, steve. All right, joining us now with thoughts on what to expect from the meeting is greg. Good to have you here. Morning. So speaking with kate kelly, my favorite question of the day. She covers hedge funds saying the expectations are so low i see from the notes here that your expectations are so low, about any kind of agreement that, indeed they pull off some inner mario draghi and shock the markets, theres 15 dollars up on friday. Is the prepmise even correct . I dont know its completely priced in at this point, but, you know, i think its going to be very difficult to get there. I mean, what i see here is, you know, you probably have a stumbling block between the saudis and iranians. They want language in the communique about burden sharing. At least they may not get an actual quota system, but at least a few exceptions. The exception with the iranian position, as far as they are concerned, they have been doing the cuts for the last several years as a result of sanctions in a way thats unfair and in a way thats enriched the saudis. They look to have others accommodate them as they come back recovering from sanctions eventually, and thats going to, you know, that really is going to be hard to square the circle in terms of writing a communique they can all agree on. Thats right. We ran a sound bite last hour saying, us cut . No, no. Were going to increase production as soon as we can, as soon as the sanctions go away. They certainly, like you said, expect everybody else to absorb the cuts if theres any. Are other issues too. Libya will not want to cut if they can manage to get production study. Iraq will not want to cut. All the guys are producing below their quotas, right . They will feel justified. Thats the issue of how we got here. You know, theres a lot of unplanned outages over the last fur years with libya, iran sanctions, libya back off and back on, and thats volume lost from the unplanned outages and sanctions is really what has offset the overage of shale growth above whats relatively weak demand growth. Its nasty effect of the shale boom, and we finally got to the point where the supply side won the battle, and opec had to reckon with that. Disruptions are why they have not done so so far. Someone i spoke with at the meeting today and expect to be there tomorrow or at least to be around it says the dominant discussion is whether or not to make room for u. S. Shale Oil Production. How do you think they are thinking about that . Whats the frame work in thinking about that . Well, given theres no Cartel Behavior with the producers, theres no question. The question is how do they deal with it . I think what ultimately happens is you will get some unofficial production restraint out of the saudis and the gulf era countries they are aligned with eventually. I think they are going to aim to let prices dip and the growth rate affecting plans for the companies headed into next year and beyond that. Pull the growth down, but not unless the flood scenario plays out fully next year, which even with the financial reserves they have is damaging to them. Do you predict prices . Whats your prediction . I think were going to gept more weakness coming out of the meeting when theres no headline. Eventually, when you get signaling about cuts from others as well as the civil war will be escalating, another big factor. You probably get strength coming back in. Okay. I 60, 50s . I dont think we go that low just out of the opec meeting. Okay. If the full flood situation plays out and killed a million bares a day of production growth, we could be there. I dont think we get to that because of the production cuts and libya scenario. Greg, what do you do going into the weekend . Theres a great point. Some people think, okay, skyrocket by 15 bucks. You got other people thinking it could go lower. That must make people nervous headed into a trading week . I dont think that lack of a headline is fully priced in. I think theres a lot of just when you look at where analysts are on this. They are all over the place. People are scratching their heads. I dont think its fully priced in at this point, and, you know, weve probably have a done lag after the disappointing headline. Good to see you this morning, greg, really appreciate it. Thank you. When we come back, say no to shopping on thanksgiving day . Did you know theres a misery map for travelers . The ceo of flight aware tells all about it. We assume its where we are at any given point in time. Thats at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time, and squawk box will be right back. Time now for todays after lack trivia question. Who was the first president to celebrate thanksgiving outside of the United States . The answer when cnbcs squawk box continues. And. Exhale. Aflac and a gentle wavelike motion. Ahhhahhhhhh. Liberate your spine. Ahhhahhhhhh. Aflac and reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. 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Gotta keep it lean and mean. Pear uhoh. Heart i maximize good stuff like my potassium. And phytosterols, which may help lower cholesterol. Major im feeling energized already. Avo new delicious ensure active heart Health Supports your heart and body, so you stay active and strong. Ensure. Take life in. Now the answer to todays aflac traif why question. Who was the first president to celebrate thanksgiving outside the United States . The answer . Franklin d. Roosevelt in 1936. Black friday is nearly a promise and many big box retailers are jumping on the opening of thanksgiving day, but several people out there are not for all of this, this idea of opening early on black friday. Joining us now, someone from the camp. John, the former ceo and chairman of toys r us. John was the ceo of fao swharts. Good morning. You are against this . I think that thanksgiving is the one nondenominational hall day to be enjoyed by everyone with their families. Im totally opposed to opening on thanksgiving. Opposed to it on moral grounds, but what about economic grounds . Money to be made . Economically, it does not make sense. Plenty of big retailers are not doing it who figured it out. Staffing a store on thanksgiving it double time in terms of salaries, and i dont believe you do anything other than spread out the volume with adding a lot of expense. It makes no sense. You said nondenominational holiday, so christmas . Not christmas either, most people dont, but this is one that, to me, its as the steward of a business, its bout the people that work with you and for you, and they deserve to have time with their families. What we said during the break a lot of people want to work on that day, right . Make double time, triple time, i cant spend time with your motherinlaw. I have to work. I think once a year as a society we have to stop, and slow down and give thanks and to be with our families or be with our friends, and enjoy that day. John, i agree with your sentiments entirely on this. However, youre on the as good as the competition. In the end, theres only a certain amount of sales to go around if competitors open up. Thats why people jumped on board. Thats right. You are seeing push back on that, however. In fact, it was in the news this morning on my way down here that employees are pushing back now, and even macys is looking at ways to only have volunteers as opposed to forcing people to work on that day and scheduling them to work on that day, but ive actually a believer that if you do the math, all you do is spread out the volume over more hours. I have to ask you this. Akron, ohio now, proposing retailers pay triple wages on thanksgiving. It would be a requirement as a minimum wage version of this, and this did come after macys said you could or couldnt, and it was they were going to do it as a volunteer system. Are you supportive of that . Is this for the employees or for everybody . Macys is based in ohio too. Right. Interesting. I just philosophically believe that thats not the right thing to do, and i also dont believe its economically the right thing to do. Does that mean gasoline stations shouldnt be open, restaurants, airlines shouldnt fly on thanks giving . Theres so many things that happen on every single holiday. I think theres basic services that, you know, transit systems, things of that nature, basic services are infrastructure that need to operate. Those people should be really appropriately compensated if its three times, god bless them, but discretionary choices i dont believe should be forced on people for thanksgiving. Let me ask you about a couple retailers. Sure. Some open on thanksgiving, some who are not. Macys, radioshack, toys r us, they are not doing so hot . You dont think they will get too hotter, sounds like . All three have a common problem. You know, look at a business and say, theres three important elements. One, whats the promise to the customer . What do you stand for . How do you communicate that . How do you deliver on it . In all three cases, the, you know, walmart stands for low prices. Thats their promise. Tiffanys stands for high quality. You can go through every business. Apple for innovation. When you take a look at penneys radioshack, and macys now, what distinguishes them . Why would a consumer consciously go to shop at those stores . Whats their you ran toys r us. What do you think was lost between the time you left, assuming that you thought when you were running it it it a brand proposition to the customer, what was lost in the interim . I think the two things that we did that were the most important and really drove the business to the point where it was very valuable when we sold it to private equity, i think those two things were one we had a tremendous focus on exclusive product that you couldnt find any place else, and we took very important bets on key items so that we were in stock more than any of our competitors on the most wanted toys. I think those two issues gave you a real reason to come to toys r us. Reasonable prices. Lots of interesting products you couldnt find any place else. The best chance you had to find it was at toys r us. It was on this morning, selling products exclusively to toys r us. The girls engineering toys. Yes. Maybe they are following your advice. Well, from a macro perspective, is there too much retail space in the country . Just the extent to which, obviously, people are making fewer and fewish distinctions between buying things online and actually going and feeling them, touching them, and trying them on. What is your outlook for that, and is there ever going to be a sense in which same store sales are looked at differently, or is that something somewhat passe because its all considered part of the same value prop tigs . Yeah, yeah, i understand the question. We talk about too much retail space for 30 year, and there is too much retail space. And, you know, when you think of some of the really big players that dont have a reason for being in the market place, go back a few years and look at circuit city, a huge competitor of best buy, and it disappeared from the scene, and i think youre going to see over the next five years a number of really important large big box retailers that disappear from the same. Okay. John, thank you. Good to be with you. Appreciate it very much. Happy thanksgiving. You as well. Spend time with the family. Not in the stores. Absolutely. Great having you. Thanks so much for being here. The Holiday Hotel economy, travelers trading up this time around thanks to lower prices at the pump . That storys next. E to get to wk fixing our longterm National Debt to help build a stronger economy. With a solid fiscal foundation, we can create more jobs, invest more in innovation and infrastructure, and make america more competitive, giving our kids a better future. A bipartisan solution to our longterm debt means more growth today, more opportunity tomorrow. And the time to start is now. When we come back, travellers upgrading Hotel Accommodations thankst to lower prices at the pump . Thats a question rights after this. Turkey trivia for you. Butterball was a brands in what year . Heres hints for you. Reagan was the president , and raiders of the lost ark was the top grossing movie. Start guessing, and the answer is next here. Then all the parts. Come together, and there it is. Our new car so, thats how santa fits it in his sleigh. Wow. Wow. The magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. [ radio chatter ] [ male announcer ] andrew. Rita. Sandy. Meet chris jackie joe. Minor damage, or major disaster, when you need us most, were there. State farm. Were a force of nature, too. Welcome back, everybody. Now the answer. What year did the butterball make its debut . This is the butterball hotline were talking about. The same year the world discovered Indiana Jones and reagan took office. It was 1981. Well hit up the hotline ourselves in a few minutes. Do you think theres a product today called butterball, it sounds so unhealthy, doesnt it . Sounds so good. Sounds like one hell of a year, reagan, butterball, and Indiana Jones. What more could the world want . Thats good. Really good. Today, by the way, marks the busiest travel weekday of the year, gasoline prices i cant say that, gasoline prices. Weve been looking at low levels, a boom for travelers. They may have more cash in the pockets to spend on the trips, but perhaps upgrading accommodations as well. We have the nations largest lodging reit, and, ed, thanks for being here. Great to be here. Whats coming into the hotels, whats happening, how is that translated into people who spend more up to this point . Well, its hard to say what is contributing to it, but im sure lower gas prices are one of the factors. The bottom line is this years been a very good year for the hotel business. Weve seen demand increasing significantly. The area supplies are low, translated to great Revenue Growth at the room rate level and food and beverage sales. Matter at the high end or low end . Matters more at the lower en. High end, travelers fly, and for many of the hotels, the primary form of transportation that matters is air travel because were more affected by business travelers than by leisure travelers. When did you first start seeing this show up . Again, you cant tie it directly back to lower oil prices, but when did you see it happening . Well, i think weve seen weve been in the midst of a five year recovery that we expect is going to continue for a few more years, and i would say that we were all surprised by the strength of our Third Quarter, so during the summer, and, clearly, during the summer, we would have seen more of a greater effect from lower gas prices. You know, you are in washington, looking at the capital over the hill, and congress has unfinished business, things not dealt with yet. Part of that is related to ensuring against terrorism. Thats something the government stepped in to do after 9 11. I know its up for debate at this point and set to expire at the end of the year. Whats that mean for the industry . Well, i think thats the very important issue. The senate voted overwhelmingly 93 to 4 in favor of the 7year extension of the terrorism Risk Insurance act, and its been part of our country in the aftermath of 2001, the legislation was passed in 2002, and its a program where the policyholder bears the first risk. The Insurance Industry bears a significant portion of risk, and the federal government only steps in in the event of a major catastrophe when i think its almost afterle us assume they step in anyway. The senates passed the bill. The house has been considering the bill, but has not acted yet. The program runs out at the enof the year. Without it, we run risk. The Lending Community already indicated they would be reluck hasnt to lend, especially on Major Products without major terrorism insurance in place, and the Insurance Community is less likely to provide insurance if they dont have the federal backing them. You said you would assume the government steps in any way. Whats the hold up . Well, two reasons. One, a great question because this is something that should be passed, and i think if you ran a bill if you ran the senate bill through the house right now, it would pass with overwhelming support. I think the reason to have a bill, though, is it provides a plan. In other words, the Congress Might step in, the Legislature Might step in in the aftermath of an event, but it a rand study indicated if it happens that costs the country 7 to 8 billion more, and we dont know how it would happen. One of the best things, if you face a terrorist attack, i think while an awful thing to contempla contemplate, we realize its a continuing risk for us, if the attack is going to happen, what you want is an orderly plan how to address the economic kons chemical weapons of that. The insurance provides a way to do that. Opposed to leaving everything up in the air and waiting for congress to act, and we know how long and how hard thats been for that to happen over the last few years. All right, ed, thank you for joining us today. Great talking to you. We hope to see you again soon. Great, thank you very much. Up next, the butterball hotline, everything you want to know about preparing the turkey but were afraid to ask. Last minute tips to make you an expert, and plus, when we return, a squawk tradition, joe versus the bird. Oh what fun it is to ride. Get the mercedesbenz on your wish list at the winter event going on now but hurry, the offer ends soon. [ho, ho, ho ] lease the 2015 c300 4matic for 419 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Im all about free travel, babe. Thats what i do. [ female announcer ] fortunately, theres an easier way, with creditcards. Com. Compare hundreds of cards from every major bank and find the one thats right for you. Creditcards. Com. Its simple. And find the one thats right for you. Because it helps me skip the bad stuff. Im good. Thats what i like to call, the meta effect. 4in1 multihealth metamucil now clinically proven to help you feel less hungry between meals. Experience the meta effect with our new multihealth wellness line. This guy could take down your entire company. H . Stay with me. On thursday a hamster video goes online. On friday it goes viral a network choking phenomenon. Why do you care . Hes on the same cloud as your business. The more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. Do you want to share your cloud with a hamster . Today theres a new way to work. And itmade with ibm. Right now, time for a squawk box thanksgiving tradition. Like watching football or ready for its a wonderful life or watching the rockefeller tree, or anything of those things. Without further adieu, this is joe stuffing a bird. All right. Thanksgiving. My job is to prepare the perfect turkey. Happens every year. The first thing, cleanliness, next to godliness. Someone else has to turn this off. All right. There we go. Heres the turkey. Heres the stuffing. Is this here, rights . Pay no attention, doctors orders. Might want to cough. Woah, thats cold. Thats cold. Thats cold. Thats cold and wet. You really want to stuff it in there. You really want to in other words, you really want to pack it. Oh, okay. Hold on a sec. Almost done. There we go. And there you have it. Thats butterballs famous turkey talk line, a yearly traditi tradition americans to call in. They helped almost 50 million cooks since back in 1981, and this year is no different with over 50 professionals to help 3 million cooks. What are the years top tips . Joining us from the Head Quarters every year, Butterball Turkey talk line codirector. Good morning to you. Good morning, and happy almost thanksgiving. So, let me start with this, you know, i know theres people on phones talking, but how many people actually call up versus now . I assume they email you, tweet you, or they facebook you . I dont know how are most people interact. Good question. You know, just from our thanksgiving day itself, well get over 12,000 calls. Here at the talk line, we are already taking calls. This year, you can email us, go to facebook, twitter, butterball. Com, and you can butterball it. Ask any turkey preparation question and get an answer. How quickly will i get the answer . If i tweet you the question, how quickly will you respond . You will get an answer quick. Thats what we here for, destress age answer any question. How long do people stay on the phone with you . Long calls . They could be two to three minutes, were happy to talk, a few minutes 15 or 20 minutes, she could be in the store walking the aisles, how much turkey, when do i thaw it . Thats why we are here. Hopefully, wednesday before thanksgiving, hopefully the turkey is thawing in the refrigerator, otherwise soak in cold water to make sure its defrosted for tomorrow. So butterball . Maybe they just call to talk to a friend. The crazyist question you got in this year thus far . Oh, we get a lot of fun calls here. You know, thawing is the very common question, so one that really resinates with me is a mom came home after working, her husband is upstairs bathing the twins, goes upstairs, they are playing, puts the butterball in the tub as well. Just trying to multitask, which i get having twins myself. Funny. The turkey in itself own bath. That was a cute call. Was that okay to still use . No, it was in the wrapper, just, you know, taken out of the freezer in there. It was okay. Trying to direct message you, but where is anthony when you need him . I cant figure it out. Susan, the other question i have is just trends in turkey i feel like every year everyones trying to do Something Different because people are, you know, stuffing them with beer cans now. People still try to fry turkeys. Is there a new age way to think about it this year . You know, sure. You know, the recommended method for butterball, easy, simple, just keep it in a shallow open pan, two to three inches deep, but its fun to prepare a turkey a followup and different way and deep fry is popular, fun, and quick, taking three to four minutes a pound. You know, we have a butterball indoor fryer, do it outside, of course, in the fryers, and its fun. Keep it safe, defrosted, dried up, and dont walk away from it. Watch it. A believer in heavy duty stuffi ining inside the bird or outside . Personal preference. If you stuff it, stuff it before you put it in the oven and use the Meat Thermometer and check the center of that stuffing to make sure its 156 165, and then its done and great way to prepare the turkey. You want to make sure that thigh gets it 180 so you know the turkey is done and 170 in the center of the breast. I tweeted you guys a half minute ago. Well wait and see. In the meantime, thank you. Well come back during a commercial break in just a bit, but susan, happy thanksgiving, good luck, what i imagine is your busiest season. It is. They have to work on thanksgiving. Here tomorrow for 12 hours, give us a call. All right, thank you. John wouldnt like that. I wouldnt think. Washing this down with i love this turkey ice cream. Turkey fat in it. Who else other than jane wells taste tests that in the next hour. First, though, get away day, oh, snow in the forecast for the northeast for get away day. Where will the flights back up . Flight aware helps us out with that next. Squawk returns in a moment unrest across the nation. Breaking out over the ferguson grand jury decision, and meanwhile, officer wilson speaks for the first time. You have a very clean conscious . The republican i have a clean conscious because i know i did my job right. The latest from ferguson and beyond just ahead. Weather woes and travel troubles. What to expect before you head to the airport. Flight aware gives us an update. Tis the season for apple. Exclusive data on the companys Stock Performance around the holidays. Should you be a buyer . That question and more of your business headlines as the final hour of squawk box begins right now. Welcome back here on cnbc, Michelle Carusocabrera this morning, and reaction to the grand jurys decision in ferguson, protesters fill the streets in major cities overnight, and hundreds marched through new york city in the streets of times square, and the police were out in full force. They paraded past macys deck out for thanksgiving, and then in atlanta, protesters walked through city streets chanting, carrying signs, and several were arrested after the crowd blocked a busy downtown street. Most arrests were for failing to disperse. Two businesses and several cars have broke p windows, and across the country in los angeles, Police Officers have things thrown at them. Protesters set a fire in the middle of the street in oak lan, and arrests were made in other countries as well. In the first interview since the shooting of Michael Brown, wilson defended his angsts saying he was a clean conscious. When you look through your heart and your mind that if Michael Brown were white, this would have gone down exactly the same way . Yes. No question . No question. Lets get to scott cohen in ferguson after another night ever protests there. Reporter another round of interviews out there, this with Michael Browns parents who were on the today show a short time ago. They said that the interview with officer Darren Wilson added insult to injury. Michael brown, sr. Saying that the depiction of his son as essentially a thug who was charging at the Police Officer, Darren Wilson, is not accurate. Hes claiming that your son was the instigator, that he punched him, reached if the gun, came back, charging towards him. Does that seem possible to you . No. Why not . For one, my son he respected the law enforcement. Two, who in their right mind would rush or charge at a Police Officer with a gun drawn . Sounds crazy. Reporter whatever the truth of that night, it sparked another night of protests in ferguson. Yesterday, better than monday night according to the police, but still 44 people arrested and a great deal of anger bubbling over still here despite the presence, the visible presence of some 22 00 National Guard troops tripling the size of the National Guard contingent that was out and not visible monday night. Protesters got a hold of a Ferguson City police car, not far from where brown was killed. Tipped it over, set it on fire. This is not over yet even though it was a calmer night here last night. Back to you. Scott, we heard the sirens behind you. Assuming school lk schools are closed for the rest of the week. What about other businesses . Other things open at this point . Reporter well, will be interesting to see. Still early yet here, and were in downtown, but there is traffic on the street, so that may suggest that some people are starting to go about their business. Yeah, a lot of businesses away from the protest areas have been closed yesterday, and so well see if they start to come back. The other thing thats going on here, and youre seeing it talked about around the country, is the idea of some sort of a boycott of black friday to try and make the power, the economic power of the africanamerican committee known and help people to realize what their grievances are. Well see if that plays out as this area gets back to business and when people start to get back to, perhaps, a holiday mode tainted by all of this. Is that discussed across the country . Reporter well, weve seen it you see it on social media. You see it on twitter, hashtags like handsup, but well see if it takes off, its never easy to tell, and if you can get a read into what the aggregate numbers are. Well see. There clearly is a desire in places like ferguson and in communities like this to make their presence known, and to make people understand that this is working up something. Scott, thank you for the coverage of the story, and well check in later in the day as well. In the meantime, we have corporate stories this morning too. Cbs and dish network will keep talking. They have extended talks on a new contract for the a second time. The old agreement expired thursday. Amazon holding another fire sale trying to move its fire phone, and amazon is offering an unlocked version of the phone for 199. 250 off the already reduced price. And discover financial is suing rival visa. Discover claims that visa is uses competitive practices in the debit card practices and business. Visa has not yet commented. Less than 90 minutes away from wall street, and suggested well have a positive open, dow open higher by 16 points, highs off the session, and s p up by three, and nasdaq more than eight. The markets in europe used to be higher. There was a commentary for one of the ecb members talking about quantitative easing. That may be in january. Some hoped for december. Never happens at all. But the dax is higher, a quarter of percent, lower, ftse is flat. Oil back below 79 a barrel. Talking about brent, wti at 74. 09, after they signalled they will not push for major changes in output at tomorrows opec meeting. Andrew . The other big story on the hands, it is the weather. One of the biggest travel days of the year, and if you are traveling, look out. The weather channels keith carson has the forecast, and i dont want to say it in advance, but it doesnt seem so hot. Thats right, andrew. Not too good at all. This is the eastern sea board, mostly rain at the moment, but the snow is creeping in on the west side of it, more where that came from, cold air wrapped into the system, and new york, for example, 50 to 43 in a couple hours, the downward trend continues, this, tomorrow, 8 to 12 inches, and new york state, and that heavy snow line right down to 95 corridor, generally, to the east of it, lighter accumulation rs and to the west, where the heavier snow will be. New york city itself looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow this afternoon. Over to long island, theres marine into it, and head northwest, looking at 5 to 8 inches of snow. More of the same story back to d. C. What we call precipitation gradient, 1 to 3 inches in d. C. Itself, and pockets of the 5 to 8 northwest of the city. Boston going to see the same deal, but look at to 495 belt, the mass pike here, 8 to 12 inches of snow, plus 18 is the jackpot, of course, not good news on a day were traveling. Some good news for you guys, though, by tomorrow, things look good, including a break for the parade in new york. Thats good news, at least. Get those balloons up. Thank you so much, three and a half Million People flying today. Phil lebeau has the latest. Phil, you hear the weather report. Could get messy. Reporter it could, especially on the east coast, but relative to past years, be thankful its not worse. Weefr seen the numbers of own the last couple days, worth looking at again. We are seeing an increased number of people traveling for the weekend. A total of more than 46 Million People all together traveling, the both of those going via car, lower gas prices helping their almost 50 cents cheaper this year than at the same time last year for a gallon of gast. Three and a half Million People fly by air, and average distance travelled 549 miles. Having said that, we know this could be a messy thanksgiving, particularly on the east coast. We heard from a number of airlines already waiving their rebooking fee, and with regard to air fares this time of year, people complain. Well hear more about that in a bit. Right now on average, its 1 greater than they were at the same time last year. Look at the Airline Index, up 34 in the last year. Its been a heck of a run for the airlines, and the question i get from people is our air fares dramatically higher in the Holiday Season whereas if you book earlier, save the money, well, we talked to people who studied this. Yes, there are 9 to 10 higher when you wait until the last minute. Last thing, guys. Airline stocks right now. They are in the midst of what is traditionally one of the strongest areas, strongest period for them to have a run. They are up on average 4. 98 between november 15th and end of the year. This is if you go back to 1985. Out performing the dow. Transports, Dow Jones Industrial average. Remember, the second and Third Quarter are the strongest quarter of the year for the airlines. They tend stocks sell early fall and rally from november through january. Guys, back to you. That Airline Index, thanks, phil, boy, that Airline Index chart, you see the ebola bottom. You bought when the scare was highest. Oh, the short term trades. Right there. See that. Same thing. It was a lesson. Meantime, another lesson because what flights will be impacted by the winter storms and where theres problems this morning. Daniel baker, ceo of flight aware, a cool service that shows you stuff the airlines dont show you. First of all, before we get into it, how do you figure out that there are days before you denounce delays . A lot of times, airlines display on the websites and other sorts, based on the schedule, the delays they are comfortable announcing the committee, and flight away is looking at whats air Traffic Control saying . Whats the capacity at an airport. Are schedules viable . Is it possible to have short connection times . Its an operational perspective thats candidly realistic. You run a misery map. Tell us about it. What is miserable right 199now . Well, the east coast is miserable in the northeast. The miss ral map is a way that we display all weather across the United States and amount of delays and cancellations that are given in any region or airport. The idea is that travelers take a look at this and get a sense of how likely their flight is going to be delayed. You can track your flight or check your flight status on flight aware, but thats more in the hours an minutes leading up to the flight. This allows you to look at the last day and see whats going on and get a sense of where theres going to be a big impact, particularly as a result. How many flights will be delayed today . Delayed or cancelled . So, so far today, airlines cancelled 250, 260 flights, mostly in and out of the new york city area airports. That is largely regional airlines, american eagle, those carriers and jet blue and delta shuttle. No many delays yet, but as weather impacts the area, expect thousands of flight delays, mostly mid afternoon and casc e cascading into the evening. The bad news is well see pretty moderate to substantial delays this afternoon. Good news, airlines are trying to complete as much as the schedule they can, and delays will not be bad until mid afternoon or evening. Folks flying this morning and midday will not be impacted. Is there a distinction on how hard it is to take off in hard weather compared to taking off . You have tloond to get the next plane, but if the plane is on the ground, i wonder this, and you see planes cancelled because they cant land, is that the same for taking off too . The restrictions from a pilots perspective, its easier on takeoff. They have both requirements on vid blt and weather criteria for departur departures, but thats impacts more than anything is the capacity of airports. A lot of times when you look at the weather conditions when its really coming down with snow, you see a lot of gusting winds and a lot of times theres cross wisconsin, but what happens is the airline cant operate as many arrivals and departures and say to the airlines, look, you asked for x departures, we can do half of that. The airline says, okay, well cut regional flights that dont have that many. Dave, quick, when youre at the airport and the flight is cancelled, and you feel it, everyones sitting there, whats your move . Calling the airline . Do it online . Get in line . Dont get in line. Go on the website. The website lets you rebook. Do that first, be on hold with the airline at the same time. You can jump ahead of everyone if you do it online or the phone rather than waiting with 2 00 people in line for a process that takes eight hours. Happy thanksgiving. You too, appreciate it. Holiday sales arriving earlier and earlier, but does it pay off . That storys next. Still to come, three big data points this morning, jobless claims, durable good and personal income. Then well talk turkey. Turkey ice cream that is. Blech apple a winner this Holiday Season. A look how the tech giant performed in christmass past. Well be right back. Hey matt, whats up . Im just looking over the company bills. Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. Here we go. The shopping season starts on friday, or is it tomorrow . Tonight . Every year the pressure comes earlier and earlier. We have a look at the everchanging shopping experience. Courtney, theres more pressure all the time. There is. Its about the market share and what it takes to not loose someone going earlier. The ultimate early bird gets the worm. Retailers, discretionary goods we dont need. Add in the great recession. It never cool off. Kmart ran kmerls about holiday lay away in september while poking fun at the christmas creep, holiday commercials were out before back to school was wrapped up. Target offered deals november 10, and 2012 macys experimented with a midnight open on thanksgiving, and it worked. Others pulled black friday door busters for thursday night, and now its a game to see who makes what move first, everyone else piles on. Sure, consumers refuse to shop on thanksgiving, but last year, an estimated 45 million americans did shop on turkey day. Most retailers paid overtime for meals and extra discounts for employees and in addition to asking for volunteers for thanksgiving hours, and becky said yesterday that the jcpenney employee, if you want to open at 5, competitors open at 6 00, and we are going to. The employees wanted that. Employees wanted that. Which employees . The guys in headquarters this is the associates that would have to be there. Because its a huge question we had today with the former head of the toys r us that he thinks that its wrong. This shouldnt happen. Its morally wrong. Ohio says theyll make them pay three times the wages potentially. Should be a day for family. Right. It is a devicive discussion, but the employees are volunteers or signing up saying we want to open at 5 00. We want to win. If were going to work, were going to win. We want people to be there. They get overtime, food, discounts, and its gotten better for the employee, and, really, they are not complaining as much as other people are, but then again, you got millions of folks that are showing up to shop. If youre a retailer, what do you do . Employees say they are okay to work, shoppers line up, do you close the doors . Well see what happens. Youll be busy. Retailers gear up for the super bowl of sales, black friday quickly approaching us. Teri brown, the ceo of Investor Trust and retail realize, great to have you here today. Thank you. All kinds of people talk about the death of the shopping mall, the death of Shopping Centers. You continue to buy. You just bought emery too, a Huge Investment saying, yes, shopping in a mall is for real. Explain why you think people are wrong when they talk about the death of the Shopping Centers . We still believe strongly in open air Shopping Centers. We believe, especially over the next few weeks, youll see more of an integration of technology and Online Shopping into the physical, the four walls of the Retail Stores themselves. We believe that the stores allow brands to control their imaging. I think, you know, its hard to create an emotion, or connectivity to retail on the internet. The physical stores, the associates, the training, the instore experience. That whole opportunity continues to really prove our business. Specifically open air . Yes. You wouldnt buy the classically think of as a mall where you walk in the door and all the doors face into the center. Our business is strictly open air Shopping Centers. Why . We believe that, you know, we are a community based, we feel like the consumers like convenience of parking and walking into the stores. We like those local retailers. I think you todays tomorrow, friday, Small Business saturday, and we like those local entrepreneurial retailers who are unique. We like merchandising, design, and engagement to get in the open air Shopping Centers, and in the long run, we are comfortable with the investments because they draw out consumers. Is there a regional concentration i imagine to the open air centers . It would seem to me its in places that would be more suitable from a climate perspective, which were seeing growth that would be common. I usually dont go in february, but its is there a concentration in terms of your properties . We are largely clustered in five major markets, dense urban markets from the boston to new york, washington, miami, and atlanta. Clearly, theres certain times of the year where its better do shop outdoors and interior climate would be better, but, you know, we dont have a concentration in any specific region. We are putting diversity gee grafgly and climatewise as well. What are you seeing for the strength of the consumer . Translato the tables set for a strong season. The consumer sentiment, highest its been in seven years, gas prices under 3. 2. 2 million jobs created in the United States this year, and Mortgage Rates are still low, home prices firmed up. It seems like the tables set on the consumers side for a really strong Holiday Season. I think the retailers have the right merchandise. I think they are seeing adjusting to online sales, and i think poised for a strong season. Thank you. Thank you. Deluge of dating, personal income, and the numbers and market reaction. Check out the numbers now, seeing a situation with green arrows. Dow likely to open up higher. Everyone is. Well see what happens in a couple minutes. holiday music is playing hey i guess were going to need a new santa the music builds to a climax. more people are coming to audi than ever before. See why now is the best time. Audi will cover your first months payment on select models at the season of audi sales event. Visit audioffers. Com today. Its time to get to work are finally over, fixing our longterm National Debt to help build a stronger economy. With a solid fiscal foundation, we can create more jobs, invest more in innovation and infrastructure, and make america more competitive, giving our kids a better future. A bipartisan solution to our longterm debt means more growth today, more opportunity tomorrow. And the time to start is now. Winter storm threatening travel, but if you are flying, hopefully you have more luck than the passengers in siberia. The flight delayed because the plane was stuck in ice. Temperatures of more than 50 below 0. People were asked to get out of the plane and push it. Budgeit airlines, get it . Wow. Had a bad year. Coming up, three big data points for the markets before headed out for the holidays. Personal goods and income numbers are next. Seconds away from jobless claims, durable goods, personal income data as well, ahead of the numbers, futures are in positive territories, coming from the highs of the day, and, again, lets go to Rick Santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. Rick . A litany of data, jobs claims. Headlines, up fourtenths, and a negative number, and transportation, though, and heres where its dicey, down nine tenths, we can see the transportation volatile, especially when you welcome at things like airplane orders having a huge influence, down 1. 3 stripping out that transportation excuse me, sorry, capital goods order, nondefense aircraft down 1. 3, thats not a good number, on the heels of a better reversion, but down 1. 3 last month. We did initial claims. Look at personal income. Income up two tenths matched by an equal helping p spending up two tenths. Both are up the. 4 respectively, and down it stands at unchanged. We look at all the deflators. Month over month on the defla deflator, your up 110, 1. 4 on year over year, and 1. 6 on the year over year, up. 2 on monthly. Those are all somewhat in line with expectations, so with all of this data, more to come, lets summarize. Durable goods look good until you got into the internals. The spending side like Capital Investment is remit represented by the orders on defense. Aircraft did not look good. Market reaction makes sense. Yields move lower, but yields already moving lower, a variety of reasons why. You know, look to china, japan, our europe, you get it. Look at bund trading 73 points today, you get it. Hold the spread constant at 150, is what happens is we approach seven points, obvious, you see the ten year come down as well. Its tough to package out or parse out. Whats the biggest die nap ig in that . Of course, we need to continue to monitor all the ecb to get its Balance Sheet to, of course, take on ious, so that if theres cash in the system, you know, if the reason is lower Interest Rates, you know, we have negative short rates, and in areas of europe, so, again, theres no tire kicking, joust policy on the books, doing something viewed as no policy doing anything. Whether theres a cost benefit other not is lost in the shuffle. Back to you. All right, thanks, rick. Joining us now, our chief economist and Founding Partner at economics, and steve here and guest host from research partners. Steve, you saw the numbers. Any stand outs to you . Well, i mean, all of the data combined is not helping out the thesis that the economy is shifting into another year for the beginning of the Fourth Quarter. The thing that struck me was the negative 1. 3 decline in business investment. The capital groups, aircraft numbers negative, and checking the positive, but the hope was that would add to Fourth Quarter growth. The claims numbers shooting up. No obvious explanation, looking for that. Back above 300,000. In line with decent job growth at 200,000, but not again in line with the concept of kicking into a new gear. One other thing is the mystery of what people would do with a wind fall if they had it from higher incomes or from lower order prices, they saved it, a price of 5 , not any huge bumps, 0. 2 , better than unchanged, but thats in line with the trend. No big surge in spending in the month of october without was slighter higher wage in income and lower oil prices. We used to complain all the time about the lack of savings rate. Whats wrong with people, not saving for a rainy day, and they are now saving and why not spenting it . Right. Assessments based on numbers you heard this morning, and considering the gdp numbers this weeng, what is state of the american economy, and wheres it going . All right, the state of the economy is improving. You have to understand that weekly jobless claims numbers are very noisy, the durable goods data month month is noisy. Look at the employment numbers, november employment next week, which i think steves right, thats going to be above 200,000 kind of number in the claims numbers are not inconsistent with that. I look at the business surveys particularly, the isms and they are at some of the strongest levels seen since the middle of the last expansion. So why were not having a roaring recovery, i think that the recovery began in 2009, we are five and a half years into recovery, the economys advancing, and its advancing when you compare to the difficulties europe had been dealing with, when you compare it to the countries in asia, i think the state of the expansion is fairly good shape. We have to remember, employment rates are now down 5. 8 . We are starting to approach some capacity limits in the labor market. Why are long term rates falling . Good question. It is as if theres two economies in the market dealing because the market that dr the equity market is dealing with got profit performance in recent years, well above 2,000 on the s p, and then you have fixed income market where it looks like the economy would be in bad shape to justify the numbers. The inflation, the core inflation there, 1. 6 year over year, lighter, so why . Its not just long term yes. Its the projections with markets priced relative to the feds in 2015. Markets do not believe the feds going to do what the fed is, in fact, going to do, and i think thats the explanation. John, that creates a huge possibility for volatility in the market. Right. Every day that goes buy the market does noz adjust to where the fed thinks its going to be creates another piece its like stretching the rubber band when it comes undone. I mean, were talking about a rate trading 53 basis points, at the end of 2015 when the Federal Reserve indicated its going to be, what, 1. 3 . Exactly. How do you get from where the market, from where the market is to where the fed is, and what kind of market volatility are you thinking is going to hit when they come to the realization . Well, i think part of the problem is the feds not given that definitive signal that it is getting ready to move. I think that that, we have to hear it from janet yellen rather than fed president s or other rogue members of the momc. I think the december is important in terms of reframing expectations for 2015 because i think the markets been a little bit of a making yellen dovish, and i dont think so. I think shes close, slightly lower than the leading forecast, but not very much lower. So what that signals there, i think theres a risk that we get a typing tantrum like we had the taper tantrum in the sturm of last year. We saw the equity, the futures indicate the equity markets do not like the numbers this morning. Any word . No. Look, i think this is somewhat frustrating for a lot of people in the market, a lot of our clients, institutional investors, and as i said before, no one is particularly happy about it because theres just not an overwhelming amount of data that suggests the economys booming. By the same token, i very much agree with john. In some ways this is barring another cliche, its a goldie locks economy as far as the economys concerned. Growing at 3 , less than 5 nominal, and Strong Enough to create corporate profits, but not so strong youre actually going to have meaningful tightening. I think as far as the stock markets concerned, irony would be if the economy were to roar ahead, get a lot stronger, it could be the time where the market is not doing as well. Because you dont want to fight the fed. Precisely, the real economy soaks up liquidity that is now being occupied by financial asse assets. All right, thank you, gentlemen. Thank you, john. Thank you. You will be with us the rest of the show. Still to come, tis the season for apple. How well is the stock enjoying the holidays . We have exclusive data just ahead. And take a look at this. This is a live shot of the Butterball Turkey talk line. If you dont get your fill at the table, you can have ice cream for dessert that tastes just like turkey. Blah im skeptical of this. Jane wells is a believer and joining us after the break to explain. Yuck. So, how do you feel about cash back . I would not say im into it. But lets see where this goes. [ buzzer ] do you like to travel . Im all about free travel, babe. Thats what i do. [ buzzer ] balance transfers you up for that . Well unh. Too soon . [ female announcer ] fortunately, theres an easier way, with creditcards. Com. Compare hundreds of cards from every major bank and find the one thats right for you. Creditcards. Com. Its simple. Search, compare, and apply. [ ice rattles ] search, compare, and apply. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Two weeks later. Look, credit karma are you talking to websites again . This website says free credit scores. Oh, credit karma yeah its actually free. Look, you dont have to put in your credit card information. Whew credit karma. Really free credit scores. Thanks givening is all about food and a lot of it. We would be ashame of ourselves if we left out dessert. If you dont get a fill of turkey during dinner, try some turkey ice cream. Jane well joins us now with that. Jane . Skip the meal, go to dessert. Why spend the 22 bucks the average turkey costs, but spend ten bucks on this ice turkey ice creme. Theres stores in portland and l. A. , theres sufficient ice cream, sweet potato ice cream, pumpkin pie ice cream. Its 69, which is more than a turkey dinner, but its ice cream. Turkey ice cream. The company says its selling well. No numbers, but the hardest part was recreating the crunchy skin of the turkey, and turning that into brittle. Supposed to taste like onions. I have not tasted this. I have not tasted it. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Well well, okay, its billing. Its like salty caramel ice cream. Youre cheating. I love salted caramel ice cream, but the turkey, the fat in there . I just got the turkey a nice finish. Oh, it is the crispy, oh, my gosh, yes, its the skin. Oh, my gosh, thats good you like it . Oh, im shock. She likes it she likes it endorsement deal, jane wells. You know what . I was a little skeptical. Thats not bad. By the way, i have to share more. On the other end of the flavors this thanksgiving, watch this. This couldnt be easier. One kaser role dish, add two cans of no salt green beans. Do you love casserole . They wanted to find out. Okay. States which love the casserole include california, colorado, florida, new hampshire, maine, iowa, missouri, wisconsin, and if first place for four out of five residents quote really like or love green bean casserole, you want to guess . Which state loves it more than any other . Indiana. No. Really . What . Kentucky. Right there, indiana, ohio, kentucky. Right there. Oh, i have one more thing, cnbc. Com, im testing my own kitchen a new oh, thats a nice shot. There i am. Which talks you through recipe like gps for step di step recipes for people who need help. Yes, i thought i would give talk like siri . It talks you through each step. It shows pictures. Its called side chef. Theres tutorial videos. Im not good in the kitchen. I just eat. I do too. I go back, my hands are full, go back, get the computer going. I have a question for you about that ice cream yeah . What are the calorie counts . If youre adding turkey fat you had to ask. Oh, shockingly, thats not on here. I went into the freezer to get it, somebodys already eaten half of this. Someone here in the bureau like, oh, my gosh, save some. Geez. Cant leave anything here. Jane, you bring us something new every time. Oh, thank you. Im not trying it. No, you need to try it. Shes having breakfast at 5 45 in the morning. Thank, happy thanksgiving. Same to you guys. Thanks. Up next, ipads, iphones, other apple products a hit this season. A closer look at interesting statistics how the stock fairs around the holiday and product launches. Find out if you should add shares at these levels, and if its the first company. Answers to all of that when squawk box comes right back. Location. Location. shouting location. Heres the location that matters the most. Here. Or here. Or here. Its wherever this is. To get customers to come here and stay here, youre going to need an app that connects to all your systems. So they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. Before the competition does. Its tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. From San Francisco to silicon valley, Boston Private Bank works with all kinds of people who are innovating, building, contributing individuals, business owners, private partnerships, nonprofits, families planning their financial futures. People like you. If you want the individual attention and expertise your financial needs deserve, this is your time. This is your private bank. Shares of apple hit all time highs, serging past the 7 00 billion mark. Thats certainly helped apple investors and executives. The filing shows the Senior Vice President sold shares worth 7. 4 million over the past week, and still holds 28 million worth of shares, though. The companys poised it to do well this Holiday Season. Dominic chu will join us with data how apple stock fairs around the holidays. Did the show stat box is amazing. We asked the guys at our partner at market Data Analytics firm how apple does during the sooechbs. On average it does well. Up ten times on average its up about 4. 5 just between thanksgiving and midjanuary the following year. Well call that the Holiday Season loosely. We put up interesting stats from ken showby. The first product launches have been good years for apple. This is not one of them but maybe next year could be if theres an iwatch. 2001, the first ipod was introduced. That Holiday Season apple shares up 7. 5 during the Holiday Season. In 2007, that was when we first got the iphone, 6 gain for apple shares and then in 2010, that was when the ipad first came out, talking about a near 11 gain during the Holiday Season. Apple is one that tends to reward investors around the Holiday Season. And this time around, at lot of investors are looking for the same thing, although we do know with shares, guys, at record highs, there are those, including perhaps some insiders and executives, taking advantage of the strength in shares. The law of big numbers, it gets harder and harder, right . Yeah. You could argue easier for apple to go from a 50 to 100 stock but all of a sudden now as it gets bigger, 700 billion, i mean just to put it in perspective, its massive, Johnson Johnson still isnt there. Thank you. Youre welcome. Want to stay around for this . Sure. Lets do it. Okay. Joining us to talk more about this and opportunities that lie ahead for apple or not is dan earnings, principle at Hudson Square research. Good morning to you. Good morning. Hopefully you heard what dom had to say. From a multiple perspective, does the stock make sense where it is still . Exactly. So 700 billion sounds like a big number, but if you look at it on an earnings basis, fact set says the s p is creating about 16 times next years earnings. My number is apple is 14. 8 times. Dont forget out of that 700 billion they have 126 billion in net cash. If you back that out, theyre actually trading at 12 times earnings. So really the company is not expensive. Actually you could argue that its cheap. Particularly as my second point the fundamentals are very strong. Iphone sales up 16 year over year in the september quarter. They sold 170 million phones. Mac sales rose 21 , h p had sales declining last night. Mac sales up 21 year over year. Ipads still not great but i dont think theyre done. As we look into 2015, we have the watch, apple payments and then i think that theyre still not done. They talk about what theyre going to do with health gate and home kit and maybe as the were starting to see cracks in the cable tv bundle and some of these things becoming available over the internet, apple takes a run at tv. Were not even done. Stock not cheap, Current Business fantastic, and theres more to company. Whats the target price . That is a fantastic question, andrew. I think ha as we sort of roll all these things forward, and you put a market multiple on the shares, i think youre starting to look at a 140ish kind of name, but apple, unfortunately, despite its tremendous execution, has never been given the option value that the Companies Like facebook, that trade at 40 times earnings or a twitter at 150 times, you know, earnings, they never have been given that premium valuation, that potentially they deserve because they do execute. So i think that, you know, there is sort of a limit relative to its growth against the market. Yeah. Dan, i was going to ask you, and i personally think the stocks are getting its getting a little expensive but you have to remember you mentioned 126 billion they have in cash. Also has a dividend of 1. 5 , which in the old days you didnt worry about that with technology. It paid something to wait. I think, though, even if you do think the stocks are expensive its hard to short the stock when that has 126 billion in cash. Because you can move a lot of levers to enhance shareholder value. Do you have any sense of what some of those levers might be moving forward . More acquisitions . He actually, i dont know, increasing the dividend . Anything . They could do all of them. Yeah. I think theyve been very aggressive and they certainly have the largest in dollar value stock buyback program. The dividend yield, you know, at only 1. 5 is not its better than zero than you get at the bank but its among the largest dollar volumes. Actually dollar that they actually give back every year to shareholders. So i think that, you know, under cook that has been a change that weve been, you know, taking shareholders views into sight. But it is a tech stock and tech stocks really only do well when theyre growing. Right now its growing. Okay. Dan, thank you. Happy thanksgiving. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Up next, Jason Treanor why hes thankful for the market and what hes expecting as he heads into the new year. Plus were going to tell you about a stock from him too. Check ot the futures at this hour. The dow up about 16 points. S p up by 2. 5. Stick around. The Holiday Season is here, which means its time for the volkswagen signthendrive event. For practically just your signature, you could drive home for the holidays in a germanengineered volkswagen. Like the sporty, advanced new jetta. And the 2015 motor trend car of the year allnew golf. If youre wishing for a new volkswagen this season. Just about all you need is a finely tuned. Pen. Hurry into the signthen drive event and get a fivehundred dollar black friday bonus on select new volkswagen models. Black friday bonus offer ends december 1st. Tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. 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Tdd 18003452550 schwab trading services. Tdd 18003452550 your goto for trading knowhow. Tdd 18003452550 welcome back, everybody. Lets get back to our guest host today, jason trennert. You said in the commercial break, talking about the Retail Stocks, it is the Holiday Shopping season. What do you think about Consumer Discretionary stocks and Retail Stocks . We just went overweight the Consumer Discretionary sector a month ago, maybe a little early. One of the things weve noticed from a seasonal perspective is that because christmas has become so promotional, theres a tendency to feel that christmas gets canceled about two or three weeks after thanksgiving. Because a lot of people arent showing up, people do exactly what theyre incenty vised to do, wait for as many sales as possible and lo and behold you find out the Christmas Season is going to be better or worse, in this case we think its going to be a lot better. We discussed some of the reasons before. Its not just lower gasoline prices. I think whats more important is that wages have bottomed, Unemployment Rate is 5. 8. Even the u 600 em employment rate at levels where the fed tightened in 1994. The consumer is in good shape and the economy in better shape than you thought. In our view the opportunity is really in cyclical stocks and consumer is one of the parts of the area where you didnt really participate. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Happy thanksgiving. Happy thanksgiving everyone. We will be here on friday morning for the black friday shopping spree. In the meantime squawk on the street begins right now. Good wednesday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. On Carl Quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen, simon hobbs. Cramer getting an early start on holiday as the premarket is responding to a generally disappointing round of econ data from cure durables to claims, not as strong as expected. The ten year has crept down to 2. 24, the lowest since october, oil also in focus, down almost below 74. Opec meets tomorrow. Our road map begins with data. Among the seven data