Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20131127

Dont worry, they did this to me one time. This is lovely. These people are going to come out and theyre going to go, clear did you finally go around . You went through the lincoln tunnel . No, we didnt. We went around the whole round about. You had to come across the bridge, though. We came across the bridge, yes. Finally came across the gw. Yes. In 20 years, weve never done this, i dont think. Wow, you look good. This is really good. Amazing. Andrew probably how about the news except there was a big storm this morning. It is a bit of a mess out there. In fact, if youre planning on traveling that massive winter storm that dumped snow in the west is now pummeling the east with a lot of wet weather this morning. As you would expect, this is reeking havoc on some thanksgiving travel plans. Look out if youre on your way to work this morning, it is going to be a bit of a mess. Reynolds wolf will join us from the Weather Channel in just a moment. You look good. The dow and the s p hitting highs before losing in the final minutes of trading. And how about the nasdaq . The tech heavy index closed above 4,000 for the first time yesterday in 17 years. Managed to hold on, close at 4,017. Take all this together, you consider the thanksgiving holiday thats coming up and take a look at the futures this morning. Youll see the futures are indicated higher. Those dow futures up by 35 po s points. Nasdaq up by 3 points above fair value. At 8 30 eastern time this morning, we get weekly jobless claims and october durable goods. Coming up at 9 45, weve got chicago pmi. Also on the agenda, we have Consumer Sentiment and the leading Economic Indicators. Now for it all oh, i thought i was going to see it because i historically have done corporate news. They changed it in the final minute. They changed it recognizing because of the script. I know. The choppers were grounded . Choppers were grounded. Jeeve was out for thanksgiving. It was a mess out there. Started around 230 and around 3 30 in the morning it was even worse. Choppers are the word of the day. Between whirly bird yellen whirly bird yellen . Thats what i saw. Doug is back to sending out charts that compared this market to the 1929 market. But there was a great simpsons quote from mr. Burns who said i havent checked the markets in a while. Let me take a look here. I havent checked since 1929. Oh, no. Oh, no. In corporate news, shares of Hewlett Packard getting a boost after the tech giant posted betterthanexpected earnings in revenues. Were going to talk to an hp analyst. This is a little surprising, right . Isnt it weird the way the market is able to confound the consensus thinking . And i thought people thaw maybe the turn around wasnt going that well. Now here we are, back above 25 or so. And t. Rowe is another stock to watch today. Or you can tivo it and watch it later, right . Companies Quarterly Results beat the street. Helped by strong growth in cable, television subscriptions and crocs a big winner. The company is in talks with blackstone and other firms about a possible buyout. I have the canvas ones that ive told you about. Im not allowed to wear mine outdoors. Youve got a lot of rules. No cargo pants, no crocs. None in public. Probably wouldnt be that happy about you get ago bunch of makeup on the air, either. Well, we just did that, so i know. Info blocks reporting betterthanexpected earnings. But its projecting Earnings Results below expectations. Were going to come to you for analysis. I would like to do the analysis. Because we didnt think you were coming in. You just comment laughing like at your jokes. Funny man. Yeah. We mentioned the futures, but lets check on the other markets this morning. Take a look at oil prices. At least right now youre going to see oil prices down by about 40 cents. 93. 28. So you have seen a significant drop in gasoline prices. I think its down Something Like 69 cents aaa was saying over the course of the year. You are saying that be a big help for the consumer especially as we head into the shopping season. Take a look at the tenyear notoriety now. The tenyear is yielding 2. 73 . The dollar, lets take a look right there and youll see the trading, dollar down against the euro, almost at 1. 36. 1. 1. 3601. Up against the yen, 101. 76. Gold prices up by 11. 90. 1,253. 30 an ounce. This guy writes in, i seriously think that i get up earlier to watch andrews National Tv Show than andrew. Which and then he does a number, late again. But i mean, it was bad weather. It was bad weather. Did you consider just leaving a little early or anything to make sure you or did that come into the mix at all . I will admit i was running late this morning, too. I was running late. But would it ever occur to you that it might be difficult to cross the bridge . Or to get there on time. Id like to be there i was here on time. This guy gets up to prepare to watch the show before you do. We should have a conversation. We should do a we could tweet the show out, the preshow out starting about 4 15 n morning if people would like. I could have tweeted the anyway. Now for the winter storm, this is my story, Reynolds Wolf joining us from buffalo, though, this morning. Good morning to you, reynolds. Hey, good morning, twice. We had about id say anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of snowfall last night. If you happen to see my location, which is right along parts of i90, roadways are moving pretty darn well. Everyone going east sxo west and doing so at a decent speed. We have no reports of any major issues on this thorough fare. A lot of people in buffalo taking this. Stride. The big issue is not the snowfall, its over having the snowfall while people are trying to get from point a to point b trying to see relatives over the thanksgiving holiday. What we can expect for the rest of the morning is maybe another inch to two inches of snowfall from the morning to the afternoon hours and with lighter amounts possible in the following days. Maybe with some sunshine for thanksgiving. But, again, the system could have been a lot worse. It kind of broke apart. One part of it went to the southeast. The other part moving farther east as we see. All things considered, pretty easy doing in buffalo. Now lets send it over to and w andrew. Thank you, reynolds. I was living that life just two minutes ago. Yes, you were. And reynolds is decked out for work. Reynolds, we missed you. We havent seen you in a long time. Is that a bandanna he has around what have you going on around your neck there . Can they hear me . Yes, we can hear you. Oh, good. Its fly fisherman. This is called a buff. You normally use it when fly fishing so you wont get a hook in the back of your neck. But i found it works really well when youre skiing or doing these reports. I could use one of those. Im surprised that you, though, dont have a pocket square in that parka somewhere. I mean, i guess theres no pocket. Well, you see this. This is the pocket square. Basically they tack it on to the jacket. That works. You do seem a little bit i mean, the elements dont look that bad yet. Are you hoping it stirs up, reynolds . You have a lot of equipment and gear there for what looks to be a pretty routine morning. No . To be honest with you, its great to have crazy, tumultuous weather where no one gets hurt. Weather guys do. Yeah. I mean, were geeks like that. But seeing where it could really cause some danger to people, no one wants that to happen. No. And we need a good christmas season. We want people to be able to get out and spend their money and help the retailers, etcetera, etcetera and help the economy. Absolutely. Our coverage on the storm and impact is just Getting Started this morning. Among our guests, flight aware, this is a company that tracks airtime delays in realtime. I love on this site. Have you been on this site, too . Yes. If youre going to the airport today, if you dont have this app, you are in trouble. You have to know where youre going, how youre get there. This will tell you before the airline will tell you that the whole thing is messed up. These guys know. You are mr. Multi platform new era digital. Better than the planes themselves i mean the airlines themselves . Better than the airlines are at least going to tell you about. But theyll tell you where the plane is, how many minutes away it is. I think it was on nightly or something. The airlines dont want you to be there any more on so listen to your airline. And i thought, you know what . I dont feel like they the do tell me. It says the change of date and you look up and its like, it just seems wrong. And two minutes later over the intercome, change of gate. And the flight aware people seem to know. And at 8 10, we have a Top Executive from jet blue. Later were going to talk all things travel with aaa. Planes, trains and automobiles will all be covered this morning. Then doug cass says he did coin whirl by bird janet, but he showed that chart but he said to be fair, each generation hs a stock market crash and he says weve already had ours. But people do love the and charts that go up, if you compare any chart that goes up, its someone you cant help a couple of things look like they match. And then the one that we know goes like this doesnt mean, you know, it never i mean, its interesting to look at and you go, oh, but lets talk some more about that right now. Peter has some points on this. Peter is the lindsay groups chief market analyst. We are joined by david burson. Peter, you say youre growing increasingly concerned about the marketses. Why is that . The trigger for me was in the summer when Interest Rates started to head higher. We have a 2. 73 remaining yield. We know yellen is going to be as dovish as ben bernanke. So within that context, that has me more worried. When the fed eventually does, theyre going to be playing catchup. Is it a good thing if the market is doing this casually, rather than waiting for the news and watching the flood of everything moving at once . People are shoring up their positions, knowing this is coming. Yes. But we did have a flood over the summer. And the fed got concerned about that. That tenyear is something that a lot of fed officials told us theyre watching closely. Right. Weve seen a big slowdown in the housing market. Two weeks ago, Mortgage Applications to buy a home fell to the lowest of the year. Within that context, we have todays Institutional Investors says theirs fell to a record low in their survey. You have margin data as a percent of gdp approaching historic peaks relative to other major stock market peaks. And we have Earnings Growth that continues to slow. We have margins historically high. Those can stay that way. This margin can continue to rally. When the fed is doing what theyre doing, anything is possible on the upside. We play a game of probabilities. To me, the risk reward is getting increasingly dangerous right now because of the prospects of bullish sentiment outlook. When do you think the fed tapers . What are they looking for in the numbers . When do you think theyll get them . Well, you know, becky, theyre going to be looking at a lot of numbers, but theyre mostly looking at whats happening in the job market. We got a good number for payrolls last month. If we get 200,000, maybe a little above for the next couple of months, then i think we could see it tapering in december or more likely in the first quarter. So if we get the payroll numbers back down to 150, 160, then that tapering could be delayed into the second quarter. But ive heard people in the know say ben bernanke is in a position of wanting to taper. Hes been looking for an excuse. They dont necessarily think janet yellen is in that same position. He is somebody that would like to keep the taper on if she can find an excuse to do it. Does that seem an accurate description to you . If so, what does that mean for the market . Like most of the leaders, the fed would like to have Monetary Policy go back to normal if they can. Its a question of whether they think the economy can handle higher Interest Rates. If the economy looks like its slow, then it cant handle those higher rates. If the economy looks like its slow, whats your expectation for 2014 . I think they could pick up a little bit. This year, growth will be between 1. 5 and 2 . Thats terrible. Next year if we see 2. 5 to 3 , thats not great, but it may not enough to get the fed to taper. Peter, youre concerned about the market, but you do admit the market could continue to run for a while. Whats the real signal to you that, okay, theres something concerning and its happening right now . Well, i think we need to see the numbers. Over the past month, weve seen with the success of highs in the indices, we have had the number of stocks trading above their two inch day afghanistan. Not confirming the understandsy highs. That doesnt pick a top. This can go on for months. I just think that the risk rewar is getting more dangerous. If you think that, do you tell them to keep off, not put new money into the market . Do you tell them to take some money off and keep it on the sidelines in cash . Well, the professional investor, i say you have one foot out the door. If youre the Retail Investors that missed the fiveyear bull market thats not putting money in, i say please stop, sit and wait, there will be a better opportunity. Wait for a pullback . Five years into this market at these current levels, yes. Two years ago, were you saying buy with both hands . I listen to the trade that you cant fight the fed. People are writing in that i should grill you a little. Im a huge critic of the fed, of what theyve done. Listen, i was early. I was a bear in 2006. I was a year and a half early. Right. But i saw a major credit bubble, but it went on for a while. I could very well be early again. A new call is 30 in a year. Anyway, but most people dont call 30 in a year. Especially when earnings are up 4 . The question is the timing of all this. And im not smart enough to know the timing. I just know that the boat is evidenced by a record low in bears in todays intelligence number peps. We recently had a guy on that said you should sell like now and wait. When you get this extreme, youre going to get a pullback more than 6 . But weve never had a fed like this before, though, either. Peter, thank you for joining us today. Thanks for coming in. You have all these apps. You havent run across a single alarm clock app . I could have myself wake myself up. Our good friends didnt seem to know the about the bridge closures. They did know about a big puddle in the street. Thats amazing. I dont use it when im going into i know my way from my home. Well, we had a jeeves replacement and he did not. Coming up, youre likely to pay a pretty penny if youre leaving the car at the airport, but now one service says it might pay you while youre away. I might have to get a car now. Plus, a day in the life of an xbox. Our intrepid retail team tracks one of the most popular gifts this year as it made its you way through the Assembly Line to the shelf. Lo. You want to see something cool . Snapshot, from progressive. My Insurance Company told me not to talk to people like you. You always do what they tell you . No. Try it, and see what your good driving can save you. You dont even have to switch. Unless youre scared. Im not scared, its. You know we can still see you. No, you cant. Pretty sure we can. Try snapshot today no pressure. Time now for our executive edge. A local ballot measure to he act a 15 minimum wage near seattle has won a narrow victory. That measure mandates workers at the Seattletacoma International Airport and nearby hotels, Car Rental Agency and parking lots receive a minimum hourly wage more than double the federal minimum of 7. 25 an hour. This has been a long, Ongoing National debate at this point. Union leaders are looking at this and saying this is how we should be rolling things out. Its how you use democracy to get your way if other leaders arent listening to you. So the big question, of course, is going to be a year from now there are more people doing this job or less people . More companies or less companies . If youre a Car Rental Agency, do you move your location to slightly further away from the airport so youre outside that arena. If you are a restaurant, do you move outside that area, too . With it was 6,000 ballots and it wont by 77 votes. And they talking about a potential recount because it looked like that measure was going to win by about 8 . As it got closer and closer, it was Something Like a 15 ballot difference. This is like a hanging chad issue. The business representative says this is a pretend solution to a really serious National Economic problem. This will put it in a test tube where we can watch what happens. As ive said before, ive even made the point that walmart, and a lot of these stocks have doubled their new highs. Shareholders have been rewarded. I can see how someone would say some of it could finally trickle down to the worker. Maybe you dont always maximize. But then i always come back to wage control. And i remember nixon and i remember price controls. And you can look at any economy around the world where you artificially set either wages or prices and normally it dis dislocates something somewhere else. We already have a maximum minimum wage. 7. This is double that at 15. I would think this would have some kind of effect. I understand your argument with the wage and price controls and that concerns me. But we do have a minimum wage. And i guess you wonder in different areas, the yad of a national men mum wage is sket y sketchy, too, because there are people that say if it gets too high, there are people that will work and are willing to take an entry level position that hurts young peep. Lets say theres 10 more jobs available. Theres a certain pool of money you can use for labor. If theres 10 fewer jobs available, fewer people are out of the street. I dont know how you artificially mess with Market Forces and have it work the right way. Normally what do you think is going the to happen . Do you think everyone is going to move . The airport is a i think its a bigger deal when youre setting it for a small area like that. Thats not a for profit ender price, is it . Its owned by the port. So the port, is that going to be but at the same time, i think its a bigger problem when youre on an island like that and raising wages because its easy to move. If youre doing it on the national level, its harder. Theres nowhere to go. Youre going to be operating n united states. Its easier to move a few miles away. Lets talk about the travel picture out there. If you are flying somewhere for thanksgiving this year, you might be thinking about parking your car at or near the airport. But what if you could leave town and pay nothing to park your car or better yet get a check when you return. Ron mott reports on a new service promising just that. In boston, kate pulman is off to the airport with daughter abigail. Then to florida to see her folks for thanksgiving. She got a decent deal on airfare and says she found a great bargain on parking. Just want to check your mileage and is your gas. And a new service she tried over the summer. I got a check for 50. I got three quarters of a tank of gas and i didnt have to pay for parking for the ten days when we were gone, which was over 150. So it was win, win, win, win. Shes now a repeat customer at flight car, operating in three major cities since launching in february. San francisco, boston, and most recently los angeles, allowing travelers to park for free with one catch. The catch . Someone may rent your car while youre gone. If they dont, it will sit in a parking lot like these except you wont owe anything when you get back. But if its rented, there will be some money waiting for pup. Flight car gets you to and from the terminal, insures rentals up to 1 million, screen drivers for good driving and theyre equipped to fix the occasional uhoh. Getting it repaired for me. Its the creation of two guys not even old enough to rent from the big boys. Kevin petrovich and rasul departe. Both 19 and both putting ivy league educations on hold. We did pretty well and i think we decided to continue. I think by that point, our parents were a little more adjusted to the idea. For those renting, it will save them up to 730 off formal car rentals. Weve done just over 3,500 rentals since february. Off to the airport, kate will know soon enough if her ford goes exploring again without her. Ron mott, nbc news, boston. That is an incredibly unique idea. Probably a good one. They did notice inefficiencies that were out there, but you have to be comfortable knowing that a stranger could be in your car. Right. How do you feel about that . Im not sure how i feel about that. As a noncar owner, i cant comment. How would you feel . No. No . I have to pay when it turn it back in normally. If youre leasing, its a nowin situation. If you have a limited number of miles you can use. I am thinking about it from the perspective of a mom with a bunch of kids in the back. Do you know what a disaster my car looks like at any point . If somebody sits on my seat, theyre going to get a lollipop stuck to their butt. The question is do you want if nick toes begin with . I immediately saw it about where he cant you know, his car oh, because the guy got in it. And they could never get the b. O. Out of the and you wouldnt want that. Well quick, how much harder do you drive a rental car than your own car . Thats true, too. You usually beat but a lot of appears have figured out a way, theres all this excess capacity, things that arent being used. Even airline travel. It is said to go after the he inefficiencies. Kind of a cool idea, i think. I dont know. Someone is going to have to drive a seven speed with a clutch with my car. Thats going to be hard. A little challenging even. Even for yeah. We know. Thank you, becky. There is always a lot of focus on the marketing behind black friday or its now being called gray thursday and the trush of shoppers blocking for door buster deals. But have you ever wondered what it took to get those product on the shelves in time for that rush . Courtney reagan joins us with that story. Good morning. Good morning to you, andrew. Retailers have been working to get inventories in place for the thanksgiving weekend for month. Some since black friday of last year. So i went inside a Walmart Distribution Center to follow the xbox 1. Here is a look at how it went. After being manufactured in china, we first meet our xbox at this Walmart Distribution Center in tobiana, pennsylvania. Upon aroofl, amy enloads the xbox 1 and delivers the xbox to the unpacking areas. Its the busiest week for the year for walmart logistics. This Distribution Center is in charge of getting the right products and the right quantities to the states just in time for the black friday weekend. This is mostly automated, is that right . Most of it is automated. And our system will tell which boxes go and which boxes stop. Now our xbox gets automatically directed to a predetermined lane, takes laps above the 1. 2 million square feet of floor space below. So here comes our xbox. After about 2 1 2 hours of loading, the truck bound for new jersey is ready to hit the highway. Goon bartlett drives for another two hours to deliver the trailer of merchandise to the store. A team of walmart sociologies has just unfinished loading one trailer when the next one shows up. The packages get delivered to a secret area. The merchandise stay these moments before the deals are available to shoppers at 6 00 p. M. On thanksgiving day. There have been some reports recently of empty shelves at walmart locations. The retailer has cut back on employers, according to some. But walmart says that is not the case. I heard others saying they were trying to get ahold of xbox and its an issue with that. This is a hot to trot item this year. It is a hot item. We are looking at the Distribution Center. The boxes are clearly labeled do not open until a certain date. The x democracy boxes go into a secret holding area. We couldnt take our cameras in. That item in particular, ive seen people online complaining they couldnt get their hands on one of these things and that they dont think theyre going to get one in time for christmas. Okay. Well see. Courtney, thanks. Have a great thanksgiving, too. When we come back, hp shares getting a boost after better than expected Quarterly Results. Hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy . Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Maestro of project management. Baron of the buildout. You need a permit. To be this awesome. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. aaron purrrfect. vo meeeow, business pro. Meeeow. Go national. Go like a pro. [ male announcer ] this december, experience the gift of exacting precision and some of the best offers of the year [ ding ] at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. Its lots of things. All waking up. Connecting to the global phenomenon we call the internet of everything. Its going to be amazing. And exciting. And maybe, most remarkably, not that far away. Were going to wake the world up. And watch, with eyes wide, as it gets to work. Cisco. Tomorrow starts here. We are watching the shares of hue will it let pack yard today after the tech giants results beat the street. Joining us now is David Garrity of gva research. Its safe to say that we most of the street missed something here again, david. We missed it when theyre disappointing, it seems like. Then we get in the mindset that the company cant beat. Then the company beats. What are we getting wrong here inspect what are analysts getting wrong . The fears that have been raised here is that the weakness in emerging markets and other tech names would be something they could see. In the case of Hewlett Packard, revenues came in about 1 billion better than people had expected. However, earnings only came in a penny better at the bottom line. So it meant for all that additional revenue surprise, you didnt have much of a pick up in terms of margins. So at this point, what do we think . Meg whit man has a plan, knows exactly what shes doing here and is this a stock to buy . Well, youve got your ninth consecretary he quarter in a row in which both revenues and earnings have seen yeefr other year declines. Youre in a situation here where Hewlett Packard is obviously in secular decline given that theyre not much of a factor. Meg whitman has to right the ship. Arguably, she seems to have done that. But the question Going Forward is there has to be something more in items of growth than basically this 3 growth in earnings per share expected for fiscal 2014. And you could even apple has had a couple of down quarters in year over year in earnings, right . Things like this, that doesnt necessarily mean that its not going to you know, on a valuation basis doesnt mean that the stock is expensive, either. And Hewlett Packard doesnt seem to be a momentum stock any more. It seems to be a value stock at this point. Very much a stock and the 2. 8 billion argues management is at least putting money in the bank to help assist the turn around. But the question has to focus on strategy and it has to focus on the whats the actual makeup of businesses that theyre in. From that standpoint, youve seen meaningful changes in the standpoint around their competition. Microsoft is getting into the hand set business. Does Hewlett Packard have to stay with what they have or should they realign to be in better position in the Growth Markets Going Forward . David, thank you. Appreciate it. Happy thanksgiving. You, too. Coming up on squawk on the street, we will talk to ceo meg whitman. Coming up, index closes above the i wont say any more because its almost like one word, tech heavy index. Or utility, Interest Rate sensitive utility average. Its 20 years, its always been that way. But okay, the tech heavy national das close nasdaq closee levels. What this tells us about the current market when squawk box returns. Shes always been able to brighten your day. Its just her way. But your erectile dysfunction that could be a question of blood flow. Cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be Ready Anytime the moments right. You can be more confident in your ability to be ready. And the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30tablet free trial. Oh, our Favorite Music of the morning. Its time for the squawk box market planner. A ton of Economic Data on the agenda this morning. Including weekly jobless claims and durable goods. Were going to get that at 8 30 eastern time. And then hanukkah begins tonight. Get out your dredle. The National Ceremony will begin in washington and new york. The macys parade will begin tonight. Spectators have a chance to see the giant balloons being inflated tonight ahead of the parade, assuming the parade goes forward. Dont they do that in h hoboken . You can do it on both sides of the museum of natural history. If you can get on to those streets. Theyre closed off, so you have to do some if a nageling to get on. The weather will be horrible. Who knows if theyll even get those balloons in the air tomorrow because of the whole wind issue. We will see. Happy hanukkah. Yeah. And we close out that discussion and move on we should do a quick play of that music. Normally we would do that, i would think. I cant believe after all our on air harping about it, they havent changed it. They just got it right there. Andrew is coming up with this segment. Roll the music. Someone somewhere is going, wow, i really picked some great stuff there. Anyway, the nasdaq closed above 4,000 for the first time in four years. But is the money momentum here to stay or are we heading towards inflating the next tech bubble . Jessie is joining us, fortune magazine. I could, if we had like a debate. Im not really a see sociopath, although i could look at both sides of a lot of different issues. He plays one on tv. Yeah. I play one on tv. Because its been 13 years. It was at 4,000 last time, we know that was a bubble. In hindsight, yeah. Whats your gut feeling right now . 13 years ago, we were right in knowing that the internet was a very big deal, but we thought that the internet was the end in itself. We thought that the internet was the business. In 13 years. Later, i think were realizing the internet is the means to the business, which means we have all these businesses that are much healthier. Pardon me for saying this, but theyre real businesses, right . Most of them. Snapchat . No, i mean, take netflix, right . Is netflix a Technology Business . An entertainment business . Its a consumer business . Its a great example of one of these next Generation Internet businesses. Is twitter a real business . Okay. Well, truth be told, yes. Twitter is an amazing advertising business. I think we havent even begun to see what twitter will deliver. That raises questions, not just with net flex, but with amazon. I use amazon constantly. But there are people who look at it and say when are they going to really start turning the profit screws on this . When do they make a lot of money and it delivers on this promise that weve been seeing for so long . I think the thing that weve learned about amazon is that they can create a long runway for themselves and they dont care if were asking that and they certainly havent failed us as investors. When you look around, do you get concerned about anything . Weve had some people in talking just about how a few bears are on the street, how much momentum theyve built up. Do any of those set off alarm bells . Yeah. I think its very possible that we might see a correction with the nasdaq in the new year. You about i dont think it is going to be and, again, im no expert. Im a financial journalist. But i dont think its going to be dont sell yourself short. As agreasegregious as people. I saw the emotional action when my parents Retirement Fund fell by half. I think we would be remiss to act on that fear from the past and thinking about the future, right . I guess its what we always do in some cases, but i dont think its the same thing. All right. Well see. When can you come back, do you think . I mean, you can come back whenever you want, but for when we can say definitively, what do you think, a year . I would like for you to have me back sooner than 13 years from now. So, you know thats a good point, yeah. Who knows, we may be jetsons in 13 years, right . May be flying to work. Id love to fly to work. Youd be here on time. Definitely ill be wear those dorky glasses, right . Google glasses. Anyway, thank you. Well have you on before then, but i wonder how long it takes us to figure out whether this is a bubble or not. I give it a career. Because i think its going to burst . No. But what if it bursts from 8,000 . Right. Right. You never know when youre in the middle of it. Although the fed, this is pretty crazy, what theyre doing. Theres a lot of helium coming out of the fed. Thank you. Thank you. Happy holidays. When we come back, a segment suited for the holidays. Squawk box will be right back. The American Dream is of a better future, a confident retirement. 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Welcome back to squawk box this morning. In an unusual twist, hanukkah wraps with thanksgiving this year. It uses this image. Take a look at this. You can see it right there. Jeremy is the founder and ceo of the Brewing Company with more on what he calls the chosen beer. Ill be celebrating hanukkah tonight and thanksgiving. Hanukkah doesnt overlap with thanksgiving for another 70,000 years. This is first time its happened in my lifetime weve had hanukkah this early on. I could have figured that out if it was 70,000 until the next one. Thats weird though. This is kosher beer. I want to ask you about that. Absolutely. Kosher certified beer. Any time i see something that claims its kosher, including orange juice, what does that mean . Does the rabbi bless the beer . Of course we wanted to have kosher certified beer so the Jewish Community could celebrate where they go. Its the high quality of grains, hops. Its about the flavor for us. Who blesses the beer . Kosher supervision of america. Everybody can be confident to bring these beers to hanukkah tonight. How did you start the company . What was the genesis for this . Thank you for leading into the first beer. Theres going to be a lot of exactly. This was a project i started 17 years ago. It was an inside joke from my group of friends from high school. We thought it would be hilarious and funny. Why didnt the jews have their own beer . Weve been successful in america. We started with the idea called hebrew. The punch line was dont pass out, pass over. Thats where it was 17 years ago. In the last two decades we make great quality high end, top chef beer. Where can i buy this . Were in 35 state across the country. We have a website. Whats the price point on this kind of beer . This is high end craft beer along the lines of stone and dog fish, more than mass marketed crafts. Little less than super boutique stuff. Is that like nine or ten is this. Its all about the quality of the ingredients, uniqueness. In terms of the product differentiation, is there a certain flavor . Yes. We make 12 beers over the course of the line. Hebrew beer has beautiful up to 10 rye. We have beers one of a kind in the world with half belgium double. We have our hanukkah beer brewed with 17 hops and 17 alcohol. Do you have a rabbi whos your spokeman of some sort . We have ads on our website and endorsements. We work with jewish communities all over country. Thats been pride and satisfaction for me. We work for instance we did the fundraiser and Memorial Fund for lenny bruce. Can i buy this in israel . Western canada now. Sometimes japan and australia. Working on other markets. 35 state across the country listed on our website. Is hanukkah a big deal for you . Yes. Its our biggest sell of the year. Its our super bowl, st. Patr k st. Patricks day and super bowl all tied up you in one. Thank you for coming in. Great story. Appreciate it. Coming up, a massive storm threatening one of the biggest days of the year. 63 degrees here this morning. It was raining. Raining hard. Its been cold this week. There may not be balloons tomorrow. Are the balloons tomorrow . Supposedly. Store doors open earlier than ever. Well talk markets and outlook for 2014 with the veteran investor and bob. Hes also a veteran investor. Theyre both wise men. Squawk box will be right back. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer ranked highest in Investor Satisfaction with selfdirected services by j. D. Power and associates. The storm hitting the eastern seaboard in time for thanksgiving. Delays stretch ago cross the country. Things may get worse. The latest on the storm and what it means for your travel plans. Riding the market rally, market veterans byron and bob. Getting ready for 2014. Its a squawk box tradition. You really want to stuff it in here. We are joined with advice on making the perfect turkey. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning everybody. Welcome back to squawk box on cnbc. Im becky with andrew and joe. Youll see dow up 35 points above fair value, nasdaq up 7 after closing above 4,000 first time in 13 years. S p 500 up 3 1 2. In our headlines we have a heavy dose of economic numbers coming from investors today. Ahead of tomorrows holiday well see the latest data on jobless claims and durable goods. Those are coming at 8 30 eastern time. Well get the Michigan Consumer index and leading Economic Indicators too. Were watching shares of former dow component Hewlett Packard. Hp reported better than expected earnings for the latest quarter, driven by strong growth in the enterprise business. Stocks up by 7 . Morgan stanley and city group among the Financial Firms under scrutiny for their hiring practice. This follows Jp Morgan Chase disclosure in august the government was looking into its hiring practices in china. The issue is whether theres violations of the foreign corrupt practices act. We have the major winter storm moving up the east coast this morning. Look out if youre on your way to work or traveling for the holiday. The Weather Channel joins us now. Jenn, its a mess out there. Thats an understatement isnt it. The rain is so heavy causing issues on the road. Airport delays have begun today. You can see the rain stretching up the eastern seaboard. Were calling this an eastern storm. For you in new york city, 60s, pouring down rain. Its going to change with colder air. There is snow behind the cold front. You can see that in pennsylvania, north korea, west virginia. Snow is on the order of a couple of inches. Rain is an inch or two causing prob. New york city, problem at airport. Laguardia delays running an hour and a half on arrivals due to the program. Rain very heavy at times. Counties under the flash flood warnings. Responding on the roadways. You know how it goes. Rain in the south, in florida, miami, fort lauderdale, rain in atlanta changing over to snow the the area. Very dynamic system. Today were stuck with the rain for a good chunk of the day. The wind might be the biggest culprit for air travel. One of the reasons the delays are at laguardia. Tonight rain lingering in southern new england. Change over to snow for some. Syracuse, buffalo, roschester gets the snow. Its going to dry out in d. C. , philly by this evening. Tomorrow, were left with a cold but windy thanksgiving day. The wind is going to be the next factor to look at for the macys thanksgiving day parade. The question is about the balloons tomorrow, will they fly high or not . The wind is right at the critical threshold. Thank you for that. Kids want to see the balloons tomorrow. Youre going right . Kungfu panda is usually there, spongebob, buzz light year, spider man. What would it be just the acts and the parade i guess . Right. Go to the Historical Society tonight and watch them blow them up. Thats something to do. Thats part of our plan this evening. Also we should tell you later this hour what airlines will be cancelling flights today. Check this out. Ceo daniel baker will be our guest at 7 30 eastern time. Dow, s p 500 record high, nasdaq closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years. We have bob whos the chief equity. Im going to start with byron. You know exactly what im going to say. You tweaked me. I didnt twerk you. My comment was i have a great memory, and you do too. You were right there profits were decelerating a year ago. We reached Profit Margins at all time highs. As a result you werent as bullish as you had been. You didnt factor in bernanke. I didnt factor in the power it would have on the equity market. A lot of people say corporations are doing well and we deserve this move. You think its 58 billion a month . 85 billion a month gets expanded. Three quarter s of that goes ino final assets. 85 billion had an awful lot to do with it. That explains it. Do you i know where you vote and where you stand on a lot of this stuff. Is it hurting in terms of income disparity . People who benefit from this are owners of assets. About 10 of the population owns 90 of stock. Then the fed hasnt done anything for jobs or the guys on the street. Its been theyre hoping this is a massive trickle down right . What the fed had hoped was that big portions of monetary easing would move into the real economy. Only as i said a quarter of it probably did. So the Unemployment Rate four and a half years into the recovery is still over 7 . It would have been in the fives before. Brilliant guy on, kevin, who said guys that run corporations look at stock prices and dont necessarily believe its justified. Theyre afraid we may go back to an environment not too good. Theyre buying back stocks. Thats the reason earnings are as good as they are. Wouldnt that concern stretch into the idea if youre so concerned about the future, what happens to your stock price too . Are you buying high . Maybe buying high but multiples are not high. Thats the other side of it. This is not 1999. Were not a 30 times earnings. Were 15 times earnings. The reason people arent investing the plant equipment, you dont need new plant equipment. Lets go to bob. When i try to think about youre always even kiln. I think Financial Assets are the place tonight. I cant grill you for not being part of this more, but sometimes i grill you because you never say buy with both hands. We should have done that january 1st. No question. Our view was muddle through economy, grind higher equity market. The Fair Assessment would have been muddle through and gallop through equity market. Its the wall of he equity and central bankers around the world. We have inflation that stayed very quiet. We have also a fiscal policy that is leading to lower and lower deficits. When you look at washington, one of the most dovish feds weve had and fiscal policy where budgets fall a falling, some sense is just noise. Peter who was just on in the last hour thinks theres a chance of 10 to 15 that the correction will be 10 to 15 . I dont know what percentage hes put on that. What do you do if youre an investor . Do you wait if you have cash on the sideline. Do you trickle in or what do you do . Go to bob and byron on this. Andrew, i think the key phrase in your question was if you have a little bit of cash. If you have a little bit of cash you probably keep it, wait and see if the correction occurs. If you have a lot of cash, you probably participate in this market. You dont stay out waiting for the moment of truth. Bob. I dont disagree with that at all. Hard for me and hard for anybody to really predict the corrections. People have been calling for that for months and months. We know that and the market keeps going up. When i see a fed supportive, economic excel ration to some degree. Well have a better 14 than 13. Hard for me not to want to be in stock. If i have more than a little bit, i want to put towards if we have a pull back, fine. If your sense if theres a pull back theres a quick snap back or this is a longer term issue . Unless its fundamentally based, i think it will be fairly quick. As weve seen in the not 10 but the 4 1 2 we had not long ago, 7 1 2 around the tapering, i think theyll be fairly brief. A lot of money on the sidelines. Cant wait to buy pull backs. Theres some surprise lurking out there. Either the market is going to do very well next year which nobody expects which would be a surprise or the market does badly. Theres a 20 correction. One of those two things is a possibility. The other is the fed does taper and the market doesnt. Everybody assumes once the fed taper, market is going to decline. Everybody knows taper coming. Maybe that discounted before it really happens. Interesting. I want to know when were going to know, bob. I guess we wont know until we do. Unfortunately ive not met anybody that gets these short term corrections right more than once at a time. I want to know when we actually have done it where weve really done it in terms of bubbles you know. Earnings for nasdaq are so much higher today than last time. They are. One thing weve seen normally if everyone is talking about bubble, it keeps going until people stop talking about the bubbles. Then it bursts. Here, here. Thanks. Byron will be with us the rest of the show. Coming up next, messy weather including rain, snow, wind. Could be bad news for tomorrows macys day parade in new york. My kids are worried about that. Longer hours lead to more sales for the Holiday Season . Thats a real question. Were going to talk retail for one final time before the mad rush beginses. And what it takes to stuff a turkey. The talk is open. The lines are open fielding your questions, this is a thanksgiving day tradition. Butter ball experts standing by to answer our tough questions. Stick around. Squawk box coming back after the quick break. Welcome back to squawk box snoopy and spongebob may be grounded. The wind and rain threat anyoning to ground these and others in the annual macys thanksgiving day parade. The kids and i are all going. We hope this doesnt happen. They may not lift off thursday if sustained winds exceeds 23 Miles Per Hour and gusts exceed 34 Miles Per Hour. Thats according to city rules enacted after fierce winds caused the cat in the hat balloon to topple a light pole and injure a spectator. The forecast calls for winds of 25 Miles Per Hour and gusts higher. The. Squawk box is open for business on black friday. 6 00 a. M. Eastern time. Even if youre in a food coma, well have a live look at mall openings. Macys chairman and ceo. Walmart ceo and many more. Thats friday right here on walk squawk. Dont miss it. Were coming back in just a moment. Hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy . Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Stick with innovation. Stick with power. Stick with technology. Get the flexcare platinum. New from philips sonicare. Just by talking to a helmet. 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[ under his breath ] that was horrible. Pays you cash when youre sick or hurt . [ japanese accent ] aflac. Love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. Helps you focus on getting back to normal . [ as a Southern Belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. Uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. Youre on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Find out more at aflac. Com. You can fill that box and pay one flat rate. I didnt know the coal thing was real. Its very real. David rivera. Rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Top retailers are Opening Doors extra early to kick off the Holiday Spending free. We have the Equity Research firm owner that provides Financial Management Consulting Services to retail companies. You have really good insights as to whats happening. We know theyre opening earlier and longer hours. Is that about getting more shoppers into the stores . That was andrews question yesterday actually. Of course its about getting more shoppers into the stores. The question we came up with is do we really get more sales . Theres no indication we get more by being open longer or earlier. When i got in the business we started 8 00 a. M. Now theyre open 24 hours. Theyre going to squeeze 28 hours into this day. Theyre going to get a lot of people into the door. Back in that day, black friday was not the biggest sales day. It was the biggest traffic day. Now its actually the biggest sales day. Before that super saturday, saturday before christmas was always the biggest. Are we really getting more sales . No. Were spreading out over more hours. Why do retailers do it . They wanted more share. Im going to get more sales. The retailers are all about them getting more sales. Walmart opens at 6 00 p. M. Because somebody else does at 8 00 p. M. Thats been going on for a long time. Four years ago macys first broke the mold on retail Big Box Department store retailers. They opened at midnight. Why . They wanted the share of the customer they werent getting. They got that. Theyve done well. Do you think bringing younger people in now theyre open at 8 00. Jcpenney is and khols. Will they get more sales in total . No. Will macys get more sales . Yes. Is it one upping your competitor offering deals to get in the store. Its mathere was an article mark up and mark down. s g right. I stocked the first shelf in 1964. Walmart opened in 1962. Its not coincidence in 1970, the race to the bottom started on gross margin and all things that drive promotional pricing. If the sales are the same and your costs are going up because youre open longer and going to bring the cost of goods down to beat out the next guy, who why does macys ultimately win this game . The customer wins the game. The more efficient you are, the more able you are to do that. If youre walmart and have a low cost structure, you can win the game. If youre macy, they have a low cost structure for the kind of company they are. Khols operates at a low gross margin. Amazon doesnt need any gross margins. Theyre doing a lot of business at low gross margins. Who luoses . Were looking that the screen. I dont know if we can get this. Nordstrom, sax, costco, guys that are guys that are closed. Are they losing . Nordstrom doesnt really have a big holiday business. Their big season is january and when they do the anniversary sales. In the summer they do anniversary sales. Theyve got a different model theyre running. Theyre not really losing. If your competing directly with guys i named, yeah youre losing. If youre the mall guy doing special apparel in the mall and up against macys doing apparel just like you are and hes open and youre not, youre going to give up market shares. Apparel is the number one item for this year. Thats unusual. As weird as it might seem, one of the recent surveys said the number one item was apparel. I expect its driven by athletic apparel. That will be good if youre dicks, foot locker, things like that. First time in a long time the answer hasnt been something in the tech field. Your overall estimate as to what we see this Holiday Season. Or began stanley came out 1. 8 . Shopper track 2. 4 . Somewhere in the threes. The guys that know the most about doing surveys, alex partner 4 1 2. Im in the 4 range. I think its going to be surprisingly strong, going to be promotional. Jim cramer said that too. Its not as promotional as usual. Were a week closer to christmas than last year. Ive been through seven short selling seasons unbelievablunbe. The buyers are young. They dont remember what its like to be a 26 day selling season as opposed to a long 32 day or somewhere in the middle. Looks more promotional now than probably is. Probably going to be fine and relatively strong. Gas prices falling like a stone. Lots of people working. Its probably going to be better than you think. Thank you for coming in today. We appreciate it. Up next, going to talk more about the sector spotlight telling you how to ride the rally. Later its turkey time. Makers of butter ball tell us how to make the perfect turkey. Well be right back. Ya know, with new fedex one rate you can fill that box and pay one flat rate. How naughty was he . Oh boy. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Welcome back to squawk box everyone. We get it today because of thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. Economists looking for claims of 330,000 last week. That report comes out at 8 30 eastern. That would be up from 323,000 the prior week. At the same time getting october durable goods ordered expected to drop 1. 7 . Mortgage applications fell 0. 3 last week. The Mortgage Rate edged higher today to 4. 48 . Private equisearty firms are stashing cash waiting for deals to come along. The reports the firms are holding 789 billion in cash up 12 from a year ago. The firms are taking long tore invest in fundings and finding fewer opportunities to do so. Wicked weather, talking about it all morning across the east. Could prevent many from getting to final destinations. We are at new york liberty airport with kayla. Good morning. Reporter good morning andrew. Travelers have been trick rling in all morning, many expecting to see flights delayed. Pleasantly surprise had the actually hasnt hit this area quite yet. Here delays are 15 minutes, same case for jfk. Laguardia and philadelphia seeing worse delays. Laguardia an hour and a half. Philadelphia up to two hours. Most delays are inbound flights. A flight landing at laguardia or philadelphia but originating in another city. Thats of course expected to get worse throughout the day. There are roughly 3 Million People traveling by air during this week, the busiest travel week, and this very day the busiest travel day. A lot of airlines take this case by case basis and dont know how it will affect certain areas. Airlines tweeted out about links to cancel or book a new flights. 6,000 yesterday were delayed and 300 were cancelled outright. Those continue to today. There was a report earlier today that said travelers should check with individual carrier, monitor weather conditions as they head to the airport. Roads are slippery. Everyone needs to be safe. Well have the update and how theyre impacting the airlines throughout the day today. As of now, well perhaps keep our fingers crossed. Bah k to you. Thank you for that. Try to stay dry. Thank you for juoining us today. Dan baker the ceo of flight aware. Good morning to you. Good morning. Help us with a couple of things. First of all, how bad is it out there . You have access others dont. What do you know . We got off to a rough start to the week. Really bad weather that hit the Dallas Fort Worth area monday. It really got the the airlines off to a bad start. Weather wasnt bad yesterday. Today is looking bad across the entire east coast. Right now a little early. Multihour delays for flights in and out of the new york area, philadelphia, d. C. Of course new york and d. C. Area are hubs for airs like united. This could affect travellers flying not to or from but through the airports. I use your app and all your stuff. I know this part, but maybe viewers dont. They say call the airline and theyll tell you whats going on. You guys on your site know or are telling people whats going on before they do. What should the customer actually be doing . Well i think a little bit of both is great. Certainly airlines are the authoritative source if a flight is actually kansaslez actual cancelled or not. What is the information you have that frankly united or american is not telling me about . Well a lot of data youre getting from the airlines is from the easier vags system, scheduling system. Flight aware is focused on real time data. The core of our information is from faa, radar facility, antennas we put up all over the world to pick up data. Were less relying on when they say theyre going to depart and where is the plane now, how far is it from the airport, whats the weather at the airport . We try to macon collusions based on that. We get it to travelers as quick as possible. Airlines have that information too. Why is it we dont get that immediately from them . Airlines provide information they want to give you. Flight aware is the transparent interface to the control system and where the plane is is there a reason airlines do that . Are they holding that back on purpose or just inefficiency . A little of both. Flight aware is pretty new technology. Versus airlines doing this many decades. Theres that aspect. They want to be able to control. Do we think this will get on time . What time do we want to say this is going to arrive . Its different perspective. We provide operational tools to airlines and aircraft operators. Our technology is not only the source of this information for consumers that want the inside information on the flights but we provide a lot of tools to aircraft operators for their operations to help them know where planes are, when to expect delays and help are routing. Little bit of gossip. Which are better communicating with the customer about whats actually happening . Thats a good question. Airlines affected most are those in bad weather situations. When we look at what airlines are having the most delays and what airlines have the most issue, really its a geographic thing. The airlines really focused on the west coast like folks in alaska and hawaii, on time rates that dont have a lot of issues. Look at places like d. C. , new york, charlotte, atlanta which have a tougher time, those sorts of carriers are having the toughest time particularly in the winter. I dont know its so much an element of which are better at communicating. If you look at the typical passenger, theyre all bad at it. Its whos affected the most and who its overwhelming to when it happens. Final answer. How early do you get to the airport ahead of the flight . I think its important to get to the airport 90 minutes if not two hours before check your flights ahead of time. I was hoping 45 minutes you could really do it. Are you kidding me . I was hoping he would know there was some way. Show up earlier. Andrew, solve the problem by flying privately. Ive got to work on that. Dan baker, flight aware. Thank you for joining us. Happy thanksgiving. Appreciate you talking to us this morning. Coming up by some financials and tell come should be part of your spotlight. Thanksgiving dinner, Family Tradition for millions. 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Maybe we should talk about how sectors performed this year. Financial services up almost 40 . Yet you think there could be room to run now. Only with the economy environment banks are able to get inexpensive rates and loan at out at a higher rate. The smaller banks, the regionals, nationals, theyre not going through any of that. That remains, looks still strong in the industry. There was a big story in the Financial Times that said some of the banks were concerned about measures the feds may take next. If feds are going to start lowering the rate it pays them to keep money stored at fed. That was a way the fed could push money out there. The banks fought back and said we may pass costs on to consumers. Thats right. The other side to that while that may happen, everyone is well aware the easing is going to end at some point. How much that is priced into equity fort to equisearch portfolios is hard to say. Tell come has been big this year. 25 is how you laid it out. You look at two companies. What do you think is happening in 2014 . Solar has been interesting. China and other countries are getting into this. Its low cost producers. I dont know how much that will continue to push it out. We hear about the energy here in the united states, pumped and pumped. Theres a lot more there. Correct. You also have to remember regulatory controls and infrastructure. How is that going to work . Its very difficult to get into that business. You mentioned telecommunications and so forth. The Technology Sector has done well toecommunicatio telecommunications, very profitable. A lot of cash. Very good defensive sector. What kind of stocks are we talking about . Just talking about the verizons of the world, ones that are providing with bundled service. When you get cable they provide a phone line. I thought that was more of the intermet connection and getting me to sign up with the cell phone and things too. True. Youre still buying like myself a land line that i never use. Someone is making money. What about real estate . Youre getting conflicting news. Prices are up 12. 8 . Supply is tiechlght. However look at other aspects theres a an oversupply, commercial as well. Interest rates have gone up impacting purchases. Those are reasons why it deserves scrutiny. Were coming up on year end. Everyone even from the tax perspective are trying to harvest gains and losses. There will be a lot of looks rightfully so investors and components. Theres too much capacity in financial services. Too many big banks and small banks. Isnt this Competitive Pressure going to limit profitability Going Forward . Yes, but what i find interesting are the banks really in the banking business . Its an odd way to say it. But sited earlier was the spread. Thats true. That really was created by federal policy. Wasnt created by real business environments. That is eventually going to, we think, go away. Rates will come up. No one knows how fast or when. Its certainly been telegraphed in the system. The banks are going to have to react to that a. I dont think thats fatal. Your comment is there may be too many banks. A lot of them serve different purposes. The regional banks are doing more mortgages and not doing trading and sophisticated cross border transactions. Its a different business. Im not really sure. Right. Thank you very much for coming in today. Byron weems our guest host with us the rest of the morning. Up next, were going to stalk turkey and get add viesz on how to make the perfect turkey. Theres a twist. Men, were going to dial up turkey goodness right after this squawk box will be right back. Tradition here on squawk box six years running. We asked butter ball to help us out. Before we do that, i can show you how its done to make the perfect bird. All right thanksgiving, my job to prepare the perfect turkey. Happens every year. First clean cleanliness is next to godliness. Someone else is going to have to turn this off. Heres the turkey, my stuffing. Pay no attention. Doctors order. May want to cough a little bit. That is cold. Thats cold and wet. You really want to stuff it in here. In other words, you really want to pack it. Okay hold on a second. Almost done here. Ready to go now. Joining us on set, butter balls first male turkey time spokesman. We dont have capital and small accents. Joining us from naperville, illinois also. I hesitate to say a lot of chefs there are great male chefs. We shouldnt be surprised. There are great female chefs, but there are a lot of great male chefs. I remember julia childs ocut he finger that time, remember that . I stuffed the turkey a little too much. It was a little too much, but it doesnt matter. While the turkey is cooking and roasting, its going to shrimp. The cavity drops into the you have thing. Its going to shrink. Packing too much is going to be fine. I need to know. Every year questions are truly questions. You dont want to do it the night before because that can breed something you dont want growing in the stuffing the the night before. Should you stuff it that morning . Yes, absolutely. Dont do it the night before. Make sure you have a thoroughly thawed meat turkey. When youre ready to set it in the oven. I want two Meat Thermometers. You want to make sure its not frozen anywhere. Absolutely. You put them in different places then. Yes. The stuffing is the idea place to put the thermometer in the cavity where the stuffing is at. Its important to have 165 fahrenheit as the temperature reaches. Then you want a meet thermometer in the deepest part of the turkey which is the thigh. Right straight down. He got it start ed from the beginning. So the thigh. Right straight down from the leg, the deepest part of the bird. You need 180 degrees. Then in the cavity where you have you the stuffing i want a Meat Thermometer in the center. Thats going to reach 165. Sue, how is he doing . What do you think . Rj is doing fantastic. Its so fun to see him as well as other men. Hes right. 180 in the high, 170 from the breast. The thickest part of the stuffing if stuffed like that t 165. I have a viking grill. I got a big pot. Ive never done it though. Either one of you think, should i take the splchance . Deep frying has become popular. Use your safety measures. Make sure its completely defrosted, really dry. Do it in a safe area. Its quick, three to four minutes. Its great to have. Andrew is here. Please, that little plug in no. On the little balcony. I dont have a balcony. We have boston chicken on later. Maybe you should send out. With may have to do that. Im even worried about we already made a trip to whole foods. We get our turkey at whole foods. Is that okay butter ball, or did i just mess something up . Did you call him butter ball . Theres tur duckin. There are many ver yaariatio. Make sure theres a rack under the the turkey. Are you doing this . I had a question. How many calls that come in are from women and how many are from men . The thanksgiving table has changed. Believe it or not, one out of four calls i graduated from the butter ball university. One out of four calls on the talk line are male. There are men cooks out there that want to get the latest tips as well as getting reassured theyre doing the right thing. Do they ask the same questions the women do . Yes, they do. Theyre just like were all in it together. This is thanksgiving season. Nothing can be more american than a butter ball turkey. Our talk line is busy through thanksgiving. They dont funnel the guys questions to you. You take any call . Absolutely. The question is the carving question. My dad sometimes does it. We dont have a knife here. Directionally, how should i approach this thing . Great question. I say legs, wings, breasts. How do you do it . Slice it this way . Give us a body chop explanation. We have that on the butter ball. Com website. You take the leg, get to the joint. Pull the leg. Right in the socket it comes off. Same technique with the wing. Then you have a nice open side. Go right down the middle. The cavity here will give you a perfect parting. Youll take it right off. The electric knife is pretty good. Thats very helpful. We sometimes destroy the whole thing basically. The things inside, all wrapped in paper. Take those out. Im starting at the beginning with you. You want to remove those. Has anyone left them in, will it work . Sue want to answer that one. Sometimes they forget to take those bags out. Its completely fine. That bag is of course food safe. The giblets youre not going to use if theyre cooked in the turkey. Its fine if they are left in by mistake. Giblet sounds so cute, nice and harmless. If you gave me a definition of every single piece, giblets is a nice word for what youre talk ago about isnt it . Is it gizards and stuff. One bag as good the heart, neck, liver. Thanks for coming in. Sue, youre no slouch. Youre wonderful too. Happy fgs tthanksgiving. Thank you. When we come back, well have the ceo of the airline business. Stick around. Well be right back. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. Pays you cash when youre sick or hurt . [ japanese accent ] aflac. Love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. Helps you focus on getting back to normal . [ as a Southern Belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. Uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. Youre on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Find out more at aflac. Com. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Stick with innovation. Stick with power. Stick with technology. Get the flexcare platinum. New from philips sonicare. Losing thrusters. I need more power. Give me more power [ mainframe ] located. Ge deepsea fuel technology. A 50,000pound, ingeniously wired machine that optimizes raw data to help safely discover and maximize resources in extreme conditions. Our Current Situation seems rather extreme. Why cant we maximize our. Ready. Brilliant. Lets get out of here. Warp speed. Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. A winter storm threatening travel plans for millions. Well bring you updates from the Weather Channel, an updated flight plan from jet blue. Its turkey time. Ceo of Boston Market will join us on the set. The Company Stores will be open thanksgiving to serve professionally made meals. Dont start your vacation yet. Economic data hitting the tape at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. Were going to get the closely watched weekly job claim for goods orders for october. Third hour of squawk box starts right now. Anything . Artist . Name . Movie. What are you talking about . Butch cassidy and the sun dance kid. Katherine ross riding around on a bicycle. Welcome back to squawk box im joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross. What year was that . 73. I was born in 77 so thats a get out of joke free card. 1969. Our guest host katherine ross, remember they go down to this morning, black stone advisory partners. More from byron in a minute. Then the sting came after that which was also great with those two guys . I think marvin won stuff, right . Remember the sting . I remember the sting as well. I should prepare you. Before my time but i did see these movies. You did too. Ive never seen the entire Butch Cassidy and the sun dance kid. You wont like the ending. The ending is bloody. Doesnt end well. I know enough about it, but ive never seen it. Theyre both running in, but theyre not going to make it. Thelma and louise right is this. I dont think it was quite like that. I dont think of it that way but yeah. The massive winter storm has been dumping snow on the east. This is wreaking havoc on thanksgiving travel plans and on computers. We are joined from the Weather Channel in a minute. Also watching shares of Hewlett Packard. That has taken off on premarket trading up better than 5 1 2 after better than expected earnings. Driven by strong growth in the enterprise business. This went after a lot of doubters. The company ceo is on later to talk more about it. Lets talk about the broader markets this morning. Equity futures up 34 points above fair value. Nasdaq up by 7 points. S p 500 up close to three points above fair value. Overseas and asia, did see a decline in the nikkei. Hang seng up. Early trade in the european markets, nothing to write home about. The markets continuing the record run yesterday. Joining us jason, chief investment strategist. How long have we talked about that jason . Like seven years. Since we started the company. Sorry. You dont care. You go strategist right . Ive been called worse. Do either one of you gentleman say, ill start with you jason, ma that we are in dangerous territory here yet . Or do you think this is all sort of justified . In terms of market evaluations joe, i think its more justified than people give it credit for. I know if you read a lot of newspaper articles, theres a lot of suggestions that this is just like 99 or 2007 where you have a lot of retail participation. Frankly i look very closely at the data. Data doesnt really bear that out. Evaluations arent cheap. Evaluations are in comparison to other alternative, i dont think theyre all that extended either. This might i doubt youre going to have the repree of this year in terms of Market Performance in 2013 but i also dont think were in danger of an air pocket that would upset the apple card in terms of where the market is going. Go ahead. Jason, whats going to happen when the fed does start tapering . Is the market depending on this he liquidity surge . Are we going to have correction as we did in the spring . I ask when byron asks me questions. Byron is one of my great mentors. Half the time im asking him these questions. To talk about it, the main thing is that active management is going to make a big comeback which is to say the dispersions of returns within the markets among the equities in the markets going to widen correlations going to come down. In some ways for a lot of clients it may be a better year. There will be more differences between winner ands losers. The markets are certainly not going to do as well when the fed tapers. Thats fair to say. For the talented manager, it actually might be a better environment ironically. How much of what we have25 to 30 is because of the fed. Where do you think the market would be now . Where it is . Thats tough. What i would point out is three quarters of the markets move this year is expansion on the heels of twothirds last year due to pe multiple expansion. Thats a large result of qe. Once the market got the sense qe was going to stay in place, fed was going to keep Monetary Policy accommodative in funds rate. You saw those expand rapidly. Not going to see that type of move without qe, the multiple expand 40 without that kind of move. Without qe we would not have seen the move we saw. Earnings growth wouldnt have justified. You can do the discounted model or get to 20 probably. Were not there yet. I could see that from having zero Interest Rates. How much is 85 billion a month is just liquidity to build stock markets higher. You could get a multiple on Interest Rates until 2017 or whatever . Easily. You could but thats going to require more confidence by investors. Pe are investor confidence. Theres clearly still a lot of skepticism, people on the sideline as jason pointed out. We havent seen the big bond out of equity, retail surge like in 99. That confidence would have to be higher for us to see pe moving hire in the face of rising Interest Rates. What do we do next year . Lets say we close where we are. What kind of return do we get next year . Less than 10 . Could be down . Usually when the market is up 25 or more as it is this year except in the mid90s can i pray for mid 90s, 30, 30, 30 . That would be good for all of us. Maybe not. That ends badly too. I guess it did. Whats your call for next year and how much total return do we get . Joe, looking for earnings to be up about nine. I agree with byron. Its going to be hard to get multiple expansion. Im going to say multiples could be flat. Im going with Something Like nine. Just because i think youre going to get the total return of nine plus 2 dividends, Something Like 11 all in i would think. David, quickly. I have to agree. High single digit Earnings Growth, limited mobile expansion, 10 to 11 return on the market. Why did you agree with jason not byron . Jason agreed with byron. Did he say it better. Dave and you i are old friends. Jason and i go way back. Ive got to dance with the one that brung me quite frankly. Woodstock. Exactly. Byrons grand kids were at woodstock. Now wait a minute. So youve heard of all three of us. The big surprise the market was put on earth by god to fool the greatest number of people. You agree with that right . That would mean a 20 plus year or a down 20 year would be the big surprise. Either up a lot or down. Down a lot. I agree. Almost everybody thinks what the three of us think. Which is it, up or down . Whats the more likely scenario . Im thinking about that. I dont know yet. Thats something to think about. You are a couple young whipper snappers. You putting me in that category . No. I defer you. You know everything. Also following a major winter storm in the east. Now joining us from buffalo, new york, whats going on reynolds . Reporter basically you nailed it. Really not a lot going on for the time being. I dont know if you can see it at home or from the studio. There are a few small flakes coming through. We might have one to two inches of snowfall for the afternoon. This morning were basically done. Overnight totals along parts of i90, three to five. We were told theres higher amounts near the stadiums where the bills play. Eight to ten inches in that area. Well see greater amounts in rod chester and syracuse. For this area, its basically done for now. More as we head to saturday and sunday. For this area i think were done. Very simple traffic. Roads were pretreated. You still have quite a big volume of cars as you expect on a holiday. No major backups, power outages. Plows have been out. We see a lot of buss, cars, minivans filled with a lot of people trying to get to see relatives in time for thanksgiving. Thanks guys. Thank you. Happy thanksgiving. Stay dry and warm if you can. I know youre out there a little longer. We have more on the winter storm still ahead. Up next, going to talk to the chief operating officer of jet blue. Hes going to tell us how the airline is handling the storm. Dont takes off for the Holiday Weekend yet. Were going to get the jobless claims numbers plus durable goods at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. The storm disrupting travel across the country. Call aaa. We bring you the updated forecast and travel stats you need before you hit the road. Thats coming up at 8 40 a. M. Eastern. Hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy . Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Your grass waters itself. Your dishes wash themselves. So why dont your floors. Clean themselves . The Irobot Braava floor mopping robot. Irobot. Do you . Store and essentially they just get sold something. We provide the exact individualization that your body needs. Its the ultimate sale on the only bed clinically proven to improve sleep quality. The sleep number bed. Once you experience it, theres no going back. For one week only, queen mattresses start at just 599. 99. And save 50 on our limited edition innovation series beds. Plus special financing. Only at a sleep number store. Sleep number. Comfort individualized. Welcome back everybody. Mother nature not taking it easy for travelers this morning. They are likely to impact up and down the east coast. Joining you now on what jet blue is trying to do, hes chief operating officer at jet blue. Thanks for coming in. How bad is it . We keep hearing or your stories. Rerely on media to put out messages about the weather. If youre driving, this is significant. The i95 corridor a lot of wind and rain. Today depends on three i think things. Today theres a lot of demand. Weve seen the weather come in. Is this something you comply or is this cancellations of a lot of flights . This is something we can fly in. This is why ere is the wind comg from . A lot of weather came overnight. We dont fly a whole lot except for transcontinental overnight. Youre telling people get there on time or early . Get there on time. Depends on the airport really becky. Overall looking for a good day to get people home for thanksgiving. Thats good news. If you look at the rest of the week, doesnt look bad on returns sunday. Weve got good weather after head. Theres rain on the late per part of the weekend. It was a big deal. We werent sure what this was going to do. Weve been watching since friday. Our Decision Point started 24 hours out in terms of our operating plan and its not just plan a. Its plan b and c. Conditions can change. When do you make the call . Certain airlines are more aggressive about cancelling than others. It depends. Every thing we fly is main line jet blue with 100 or more on them. Its a big deal. We dont have commuter option. If Mother Nature is going to win, we let her win. Ive been told im supposed to go to the ticket count and ask if you a bide by some rule. The rule is about whether youll book me on another airline. Rule 240. Right. Thats a way back term. Do you follow that or not. Im told if i site 240, their eyebrows go oh ive got to do it. Airlines are smart. You saw coming into today, they want to keep the revenue. Nobody wants to rule 240 on another carrier. If youre on jet blue, we were smart at least the industry coming into this event. This was going back to dallas ice storm, Severe Weather through the the southeast. Hey, if you can get on an early early flight and weather is not going to impact you, well let you do that no charge. Thats smart. If you say 240 they jump at that. If theres a seat anywhere, he knows something. A bunch of people start coming out. Really . It depends. Knowing andrew youre going to remember. Its not code for you must do something. Its an Agreement Airlines have with one another to move people. You get jets airplanes. Is it new york jets youre channelling because their name is jets . Of course were the official airline of the jets. Its a match made in heaven. Also boston red sox. We are the official red line of the red sox. Youre trying to please everyone. These guys will all fly unless they get kicked off. Then theyll use rule 240. Really, the personal, ticket agent just gets terror in her eyes when shes got somebody with 240. She knows shes got to move you to another airline. This is a Company Andrew uses frequently to make sure youre going to have a flight onty tim. How come theyre able to give it to us more quickly. Is it intentional to hold back information . I saw that piece. Flight aware is a great product. Theyre very accurate. Airplanes are in the air, where are they, whats their eta going to be . Sometimes the information doesnt match up. Like today, were going to uhav an airline with three hours delay. What if that delay gets pulled in, we want the customer there is. Theres something to be said that you want to treat us more like cattle, and get us there. You run a risk if you dont follow your official information, of getting left behind. Its not that were not trying to be transparent. Its such a dynamic environment with air space. But youre trying to be not transparent. The worst thing you can have on a day like today. You said it was a threehour delay. Im here, missed the flight. How am i going to get home for thanksgiving . From a customer perspective, we think its better to follow our delays. If i listen to them instead of listening to you, i might miss it. I believe that both sets of information are relatively accurate. What theyre not good about knowing what flights are at risk of being cancelled if theres a large cancellation event. That becomes airline dependent. I never had anyone tell me pilots slipped in. Its always air Traffic Control or could be mechanical. Not too often. Ive heard the pilot was not there because they were on another flight. Normally you fall back on air Traffic Controllers right . Its not the controllers. Its actual landing rate at the airport. On a day like today there was a possibility today we could have been on configuration at jfk to put us through by a percent. We have to take into account. Winds have set up for a favorable operation today. We may be later in the afternoon. Ups and four seasons at the same time. It looks like were going to get through all our worst concerns. I dont know if were going to skate through. Some airports, laguardia and new york have significant delays. There may be some cancellations. Were looking to run a full schedule. Now all our viewers know about 240. All everybody is going to do now. Its a number nobody will forget. Its like area five in cia or whatever. Rivera, david. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. A lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. Just by talking to a helmet. It grabbed the patients record before we even picked him up. It found out the doctor we needed was at st. Annes. Wiggle your toes. [ driver ] and it got his okay on treatment from miles away. It even pulled strings with the stoplights. My ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. But, of course, its a good listener too. [ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. So everything works like never before. You can fill that box and pay one flat rate. How naughty was he . Oh boy. [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Still to come. We have big numbers. Harris joining us with instant reaction. Stick around. Well be right back. [ male announcer ] once, there was a man who found a magic seashell. It told him what was happening on the Trading Floor in real time. The shell brought him great fame. But then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their Trading Platform. [ indistinct talking continues ] [ male announcer ] so the magic shell went back to being a. Shell. Get live squawks right in your Trading Platform with think or swim from td ameritrade. Welcome back to squawk box just seconds away from the weekly jobless claims and durable goods for october. Talking off camera to byron and rick. Survey says for october, durable goods down 2 . Now that isnt a good thing. It did match expectations of down 2 . Our last look had a slight bump up 3. 7 to 4. 1. Ex transportation down one tenth. I think thats significant to Pay Attention to. Last time it was down one tenth that was revises up two tenths. Now lets look at capital goods, the orders first. Down 1. 2. All right. Thats weird. We usually count on that shot. Just like the airlines, its the weather. Blame it on the weather. He was about to say as rick does, going for most important numbers first. Down 0. 2 . Continues the conversation from yesterday with kevin. Thats two months in a row. Weve been down on that indicator. Business investment not doing well at again, new orders down too. I had a forecast down 1. 7. The bulk of that decline is non defense aircraft, boeing has to do with delivery. I think boeing is doing okay. They were down 16 on non defense aircraft and part. Thats not a big deal. As rick said, take out the transportation component. Thats down 0. 1 . Durable good, things that last longer than three years. I didnt see claims. 16 day partial Government Shutdown. There he is. 316,000 down 10. One thing i wanted to hit quickly. We won through orders. Many traders on this floor are paying more attention to shipments lately. Shipments down a couple of tenths as well. Steve picked up for me. Durable goods complex is a big disappointment today. On the jobless side, if the jobless claim floats your boat and youre a high believer correlations figure into more working in the true labor force, this number is okay for you. It came out in the wash. 2. 72 unchanged on tens. Looking for a meager positive for equity markets. Steve, what do you think of the dynamic on the shipments . Is this something to play closer attention to . Youre trying to figure out whats going on with Overall Economic growth. Orders tells yousz where its going, shipments tells you where its been. I dont do calculation until i get off set. You figure in the shipping and number tell us. Shipments are down it will substract from overall growth. Machinery, fabricated metals. This is not a one off. I dont know what the reason is for that unexpected up. Sorry man. You already ready to head out for turkey. Where are we . What do you make of numbers right now . Couple of points. Talking about october. It could be the business orders could have delayed orders. Were not going to really know where the orders stand until we see the november data. The second point id make is that theres a real disconnect here between labor markets and whats happening to cap x recently. Over three months ending in october, your average monthly change this payroll, 202,000. You saw jobless claims are coming down more in november. Were getting mixed signals that businesses apparently feel good enough to keep the layoff rate low and to expand rpayrolls. Theyre not expanding the cap x. Well get to november numbers and probably see a snap back and some of this is related to uncertainty surrounding the shutdown. Ive got an early bird look at next weeks job report. Three month average 201,000. What you mean early bird look . I was using the bird metaphor, turkey thing. These are not official numbers. These are official estimates. Bls 185. Those have come up you since the october actual of 204,000. It seems theres been disconnect between the job numbers. Heading to the october number through september, it was 145,000 approximately. You would have thought with claims it would have been higher. With job numbers august, september, good number for october, job news are more in line on what were seeing on claims which have been coming down. What what happens in the Fourth Quarter . I think you slow down because youre going to have a pull back on inventory spending. We have 2. 3 the Fourth Quarter. We got off to a good start in the labor market. Apparently did not get off to a good start on durable goods. Its one month. Clearly a disappointing start for october. Okay. Okay. Now did you watch the turkey segment . Do you cook the turkey . How does that work . I buy it, and she cooks it. How about that. The normal conventional oven 160 and the stuffing 185 and the thigh . That sound right . That sounds about right to me. I dont know what rick does. What goes on where you are . We use the feds recipe. Its under our goose is cooked. I can count on him. Thank you. Everybody out there, joe, becky, steve, wish everybody a happy, healthy thanksgiving. Viewers and listeners. Thank god for the fed, rick. Thats all ill say. Imagine what it would be like. I do something depressing at thanksgiving. Count the number of people working full time around the table and those either retired or gone up you over the years. Happy thanksgiving. The Unemployment Rate i have a prediction from 2012 of 6. 9. Ending the the year at 6. 9. Ending 13 at 6. 9. Around this table whos working full time, retired . Mentally . No. Dont answer that. A powerful storm dumps rain and snow on part of the united states. Coming up next, well get the travel forecast from aaa and tell you what the storms will mean in terms of cost. If you drop the ball on dinner preparations, its not too late. The ceo is joining us here from the Boston Market next. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Store and essentially they just get sold something. We provide the exact individualization that your body needs. 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Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Welcome back. Weve got a severe storm. Wreaking havoc for 34 million of americans expected to travel over the holiday. Marshal, Senior Vice President and chief operating officer of aaa. Good morning to you. Good morning. How are you . Great minus the weather. What is your sense in terms of what the storm could cost the country . Well its a little early to tell and to forecast. Little challenging to forecast. The storm is still playing itself out. Were not certain of the severity and duration. If question look back to last halloween, the cost of the travel industry was 6 million. Today is the single busiest travel holiday of the year. Were expecting 16 million americans to be taking to the roadway, railways, and the skies to reach their thanksgiving travel holiday destination. Given this is the busiest travel holiday of the year, the cost of this storm could be potentially much more. Marshal, one of the things i was looking through numbers, you folks project 43. 4 million americans will journey 50 miles or more for the holiday. Thats down 1. 5 . Why is that . We think theres a number of factors. First, the economic improvement has been sluggish in the country. Not as robust as people would hope. Secondly, some of the positive signs like unemployment and Housing Starts havent been enough to prevent downturn in travel. Most significantly the Government Shutdown played a big factor in suppressing travel plan this is year. It creates uncertainty and decisions regarding the debt ceiling for example. That was deferred essentially to january. People are aware of that. It creates uncertainty. Theyre being more conservative with Holiday Spending and travel. Marshal, just had a flash back. When i was a kid, something i would love. My father, a fanatic order of trip ticks. You remember those . Theyd be green magic marker and Clark Griswald going to wally world. With gps, is that a service aaa still does . Trip stick is doing well. Producele millions of them a year. Sometimes lines are green, sometimes theyre orange. More and more were seeing people go to mobile apps. We provide trip tip capabilities that your father came to love. Trip tick mobile app. Thats a word of the past. We used to get those. Two other things for you. Stats that im trying to make sense of. Average distance traveled this year increases to 601 miles from 588 miles. Where do you come up with a stat like that . We first identify those people who are are planning to make their travel plans. Of course what were considering to be a trip is a 50 mile or more in length. We pull travelers and ask them for their a proximate destination and factor into the overall average. You think people are flying less this year . Down slightly. Theres still taking to the skies. Longer than usual security lines. Given the weather factor it intensifies the entire situation. Im still back on the maps issue. Is aaa business better or worse than it used to be . 54 members strong. Very proud of it. Our travel business is doing quite well. 90 of the travel this year is going to be done by motorists. 38. 9 Million People. Many come to aaa on planning their travel destination. Overall much like your father did all those years ago. How much is that versus folks who want to call aaa when their tire, when they need a new tire . Im sorry, i didnt hear you. For repair, how much membership to aaa, what percentage comes for travel preparations youre discussing now compared to repairs in the middle of the road when you need help . 90 of the people that join are coming for road side assistance. Theres a third who are considering themselves to be travelers and utilize the travel capabilities on aaa. Com and branch offices. Okay. Thank you. Happy thanksgiving. Happy thanksgiving to all of you. Be safe. You bet. Thank you so much. Did you ever did your family do that . When i was a little guy, we had to pull over to the side of the road. I got motion sickness. I thought you were going to say you had to go to the bathroom. That was the other piece of it too. Going i75 to florida . Wed drive up tow maine, vermont. Thats like six hours. Florida was a two day trip for us. We never did that. Ive never done a Cross Country trip. Why would you go to a fly over state . Like to see paulson or something right, thats basically it. Detroit. To help them recover bankruptcy. Youre not looking at corn in missouri. Ive been. Coming up, if you havent planned your thanksgiving meal, its not too late. Boston market keeping all stores open on thanksgiving. Well talk to the ceo next. Itsn easier to get a new 2014 jetta. Easier to get a new 2014 jetta. It gets an impressive 34 highway mpg and comes with no charge scheduled maintenance. 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Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. 122 million mini loaves of bred. What happens . Whats been creating the trend . People are busy with their lives. We did the survey and found out 52 of people like to buy food away from home, bring it home and heat it or serve on thanksgiving. We all have serve it on thanksgiving. We all have busy lives and we need to continue on with what we need to do and were a solution to our consumers. How long you have been doing this . The sales from 2010 to 2011 grew 13 and another 14 . When did you start . We started 15 years ago. As you know, were all about thanksgiving. We serve thanksgiving food every day. So people trust us and were a solution to their busy times and this year we are up significantly over last year. Were just astounded by the number of people that have called to us pick up their food. Were up 50 over last year in picking up food from our restaurants. I always think of thanksgiving as being maybe the one meal that you actually cook at home. How many is actually really the full meal . A lot of people are nervous to cook a turkey. I was just talking to a lady here who said im really nervous to cook a turkey so i like to get the turkey done for me and i cook the sides and then we have a large number of people who cook the turkey but come to us for the sides. Im going to be working on 10th avenue with my wife and we serve the meat for 10. 99 and a piece of pie. A lot of senior citizens, a lot of people who want to be part of a group. Do you do anything special in the restaurant that day so they feel theyre getting a special meal instead of a quick meal . Absolutely. A turkey meal or a chicken meal with a piece of pie for 10. 99. Last year i worked in miami, we had a great time on thanksgiving day. Im going to be in manhattan this thursday with my wife, we put on our uniform, we work, we just have fun with the staff. It is very traumatic and nerve racking to try. Undercooked is a disaster. And if its too dry. And remember when it opens up and everyones trying to eat it. And then do you do your own gravy . Thats a huge issue because its hard to get the gravy without sometimes you buy the gravy to go along with it. What do you do . Do you buy the gravy or do you make the gravy . My mom makes the gravy. Does it always work . Yeah. Shes really good at it. We have to get her recipe. For the person preparing it, and theres like 20 people coming over its a project. Its trying to time everything coming out at the same time. Thats the tricky part. But if you mess it up, its bad no backup plan. The other thing we found out is people like to get a combination of proteins so were selling a lot of hams with turkey. So theyre doing both . Yeah. Do you that, too . Yeah. A lot of people buy chicken. We have chicken but this is turkey time and spiral ham or boneless ham at this point. Same thing with christmas. Tell us about the state of the consumer while youre here. What have you seen over the last couple months . What have you seen with the numbers that have been coming from the government . I think the economy depends on the news of the day. Its up and down. For us weve been up in sales. Were up this year 10 in comp sales. Were probably at the top of the industry. Did you see a slowdown when other people did in the fall . No, we didnt. And because we launched ribs and we talked about that in april, that was a big hit for us, we did very well for us and thats why our sales are up, our traffic counts are up. Were going to finish 38 months this month with positive come of sales. George, thanks so much for coming in. Great to be here and happy thanksgiving to all of you. Coming up with some final predictions from our resident turkey no, from byron wien. Everybody does the turkey jones toda jokes today, dont they . Im trying. And coming up, meg whitman at 9 00 a. M. Eastern, ceo of Hewlett Packard. Ready to run your lines . Okay, who helps you focus on your recovery . Yo, yo, yo. Aflac. Wow. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. Pays you cash when youre sick or hurt . [ japanese accent ] aflac. Love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. Helps you focus on getting back to normal . [ as a Southern Belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. Uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. Youre on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Find out more at aflac. Com. [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know whos coming. The carts keep everyone on the right track. The power tools introduce themselves. All the bits and bulbs keep themselves stocked. And the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing thats stuck in the thing. [ female announcer ] today, cisco is connecting the internet of everything. So everyone goes home happy. Welcome back to squawk box. Lets get back to our guest host, byron wien, for the last host. Weve got a little under a minute. So next year, december, do you think we continue to go higher . Its hard to get so specific. But then next year less than 10 . We pay the piper at some point. Thats what i think now. But i warn you, joe, that the fed is powerful. There could be a bigger up side than people think or a big are down side. I think next year were susceptible to some sort of risk. Bad risk. It could be good risk. And what about the bond rate, up to 3. 5. Exactly. What would be the surprise, 5 or 2 . Im for rates moving up. When do you surprise us . First week of january. First week of january. Were going to have to check back in with you. And youll be on. Ill come on. Byron, thank you so much. Everybody enjoy your thanksgiving holiday, make sure you join us on saturday. Squawk on the street starts right now. And happy hanukkah. Good morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Im david faber along with simon hobbs and jon forte. Jim cramer and Carl Quintanilla got an early start on the holiday. We prepared for this wednesday of trading. The implied open would seem to be to the positive for all the major averages. As for the 10year