In this hour a strategy in stock picks to help ride out, contessa, the volatility. Hello, tyler. Hello, everybody yields rising, the dollar surging, stocks have given up all of their earlier gain. The dow down as much as 429, now down 1. 3 . The s p off 1. 2 the nasdaq composite down 0. 50 . The nas dabl dak was up 4. 1 at the high the treasury yields, twoyear, highest, yielding 4. 35 tenyear hitting 3. 9 . The dollar index at a multidecade high the british pound falling to a record low against the greenback. The dollar index up 0. 92 . Tyler . Thanks very much, contessa. Lets see where we are because we dont have the prompter the current macro environment is difficult to figure out, but our next guest says you have to respect it, tread a little carefully and stay fully invested for more, lets welcome in jason ware from albion financial good to see you. You say recession is coming in 23, but dont get too grim about it good to be with you, tyler. I think for longterm investors you have to think and act accordingly. You want to own good companies, be diversified and understand what your time horizon is, your risk is and longterm goals. A recession in 2023 is not going to or should not kick you off of that track. However, you do have to respect the macro environment. We have a recession coming we have a fed that is continuing to push forward on raising Interest Rates we have inflation that has been stubborn and problematic and until those things change, its going to be a volatile ride with a downside bias in the coming months. So, you want to adjust the portfolio to optimize for behavior the smoother the ride, the more likely you are to stay the course and reach those longer term goals. How do i adjust my portfolio with those three big things . I look at three things here and they couldnt get more ominous one, inflation in rising rates two, the prospect of a recession. Three, war in europe. Right thats why the market has benneteaubeen tumultuous the way you can hide out is an overused term on wall street the way you can position itself for the next 12 months so you can respect that longer term is to own, first of all, quality. You want Great Companies that have low cash profiles, wide moats, Good Management teams you can find that in large cap health care, large cap consumer growth stories also tilt portfolio defensive. Low volatility is a factor one of the best places to hide out to protect the downside, ie, remove beta as things get a little more choppy here. Were doing that with lbhd, a diversified low volatility etf that also pays an above market dividend around 3 jason, thanks very much we appreciate your time today and your investment ideas. Continue to do well. Thank you. Well see you soon. Yes, we investors, we are fickle lovers. Were moving from tina to tara tina, there is no alternative. Tara, there are reasonable alternatives look at fixed income bond yields spiking. Our next guest is betting big on shortterm yields as the fed continues to raise rates maria from Circle Wealth Management i never thought i would be sitting here talking about how bonds might be sexy but they look very attractive. Agree after 15 years of having no income in the word fixed income, income is back and you dont have to go out too far to get an attractive return in fixed income right now where are you looking specifically whats appealing to you if you want to get attractive returns were liking every area of one to two years, where you can get 1. 4 high yield where if you go out three to four years youll be able to get close to 7 . Bank loans where you can stay basically inside a year and youre getting about 7 . Investment grade corporates you can get close to 5 in two years. Regardless of where you are based on your tax situation, staying short, can you find some really attractive alternatives to stocks right now. Can you talk a little bit about the Corporate Bonds. What are you looking for in quality Corporate Bonds . Are there certain criteria yes we dont like high quality Corporate Bonds right now because they really trade on Interest Rates at the end of the day, if credit starts to widen because theres concerns of a recession, you might end up seeing the high quality bonds get hurt the most. So, in essence, we really do like corporates, but would prefer to be in the high yield part of the market, especially the Higher Quality bbbs, bbs, where youre still getting paid quite a bit and the risk of credit is not as big. If i want to play it safe and i look at the twoyear treasury moat and i see it at 4. 3 , whatever it is, Something Like that. 4. 3. 4. 3 . I go, thats a pretty good return for two years, id like to lock that up. Will you recommend me doing that or do you think theres still a risk that that yield could go higher and that i would lose my principle . If im just going to buy and hold that twoyear note, i dont care what the principle value does intermediately. Thats right. Theres an opportunity cost, but youre right if youre going to buy and hold, i actually like the one more than the twoyear because you can lock 4. 1 and stay in a short of a year. So either one or two years if youre not going to sell, they represent very good value at this point. A oneyear tnote would be a good place to go, you think . Yes we like that very much even inside of a year, you can still get almost 4 by being out six months so, short, highquality treasuries represent a very good place for nervous investors who want to have flexibility and the ability to, perhaps, pivot as markets go lower and redeploy cash what about the fed, i mean, theres all sorts of speculation right now about whether were going to see them slow down on these rising rates or if theyre going full steam ahead whats your take i think theyre going to go full steam ahead the fed is not going to stop until wages slow down. The risk that Central Banks over 80 of the major Central Banks are increasing rates because they cannot afford to have Inflation Expectations get out of control so, i think theyre going to continue and theyre going to continue aggressively until they see labor cool off maria, its great of you to join us. Thank you so much. Thank you for having me. Coming up, bad time to buy the dip. Why this popular strategy is backfiring and what it says about the direction of the market plus, a stock draft update stephanies meta pick is down. Chevron down 12 shes going to talk about her picks and give us another name to consider if she were picking right now. First, the real estate sector, the biggest laggard today followed by duke realty, and pimco. Real estate the worst performing sector so far in september more power to you in two Municipal Bonds dont usually get the Media Coverage the stock market does. In fact, most people dont find them all that exciting. But, if youre looking for the potential for consistent income thats federally taxfree, now is an excellent time to consider Municipal Bonds from hennion walsh. If you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 18002173217. Well send you our exclusive bond guide, free. With details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. Hennion walsh has specialized in fixed income and Growth Solutions for 30 years, and offers highquality Municipal Bonds from across the country. They provide the potential for regular income. Are federally taxfree. And have historically low risk. Call today to request your free bond guide. 18002173217. Thats 18002173217. There you see the dow down about 300 points down 400 earlier lets look at Planet Fitness, outperforming as Raymond James upgrades the stock strong. Calling the Business Model resilient and recession resistant, arguing it has no Interest Rate risk and few nearterm debt maturities of the 18 analysts tracked, almost 90 have it a buy according to Raymond James. Trades 30 below its annual analyst target and 33 from the alltime high last november. There you see Planet Fitness as people return to gyms. The flip side of that is, obviously, the gain of Planet Fitness, the pain of peloton. Its so interesting the way weve seen peloton stock crumble as people leave their attics and basements and return to a more social setting for their fitness. And Planet Fitness is an interesting Business Model because they charge so little. Its a nofrilz gym for those that dont know it you go in and have a very modest monthly fee, which people forget about. Probably more modest than what i pay for my peloton fee. Yeah, at home. Yeah, at home i like my peloton thats okay. I like it. Its all right during big selloffs retailers tend to buy the dip but this years extended downturn has put a dent in that popular strategy making 2022 the worst year for buying stock market dips since 1931, i believe. Cnbc contributor from the wall street journal is out with a new piece examining the ageold strategy, which remains popular despite recent losses. Are people still chasing the dips it looks like they are. Buy the dip, one of the most popular strategies of the past few years. Even since the last financial crisis has retained its popularity this year during this monthlong selloff that has now dragged the s p 500 down more than 20 individual investors do seem to be hanging on. They do seem to be buying more when the s p 500 declines than when its rising, though many are being tested by the incredible downturn. Its been painful, to say the least. It certainly has been i think people got accustomed to or spoiled by the idea that whenever the stock market went down temporarily, it was pretty soon going to over the last decade, it was pretty soon going to snap back and then go higher than it was, and then it was going to go higher than it was that works until it doesnt. Right now it doesnt seem to be working because the steps are not going higher the steps seem to be going lower as we broke last week through those june lows. Thats right. You know, its been the worst year for buying the stock market dip since 1931 the second worst year on record. And look, the past few years, it kind of just seemed like stocks would keep going up and up and up so many people just felt really rich, right, because they did buy on those dips. Then the stock market shot up immediately and one individual investor i spoke with said, look, i got greedy i thought it would be so easy to turn my brokerage account into 100k brokerage account i thought i would be able to pay for my Daughters College education through the stock market, shielding them from loans because it just seems so easy for a few years that has not been the environment at all and i think just zooming out, this shows you how much the market has changed this year with higher bond yields and tumbling stock prices. You know, i just heard from a source this weekend. The same thing looking at these historic inflows of equity, especially these Retail Investors, nonprofessionals going in and buying the dips, but conventional wisdom, as tyler pointed out, is what theyre going by they watch cnbc all day. This has been the message theyre hearing. Are you starting to see cracks in the theories there might be some room for some nervousness over the stock market and where its heading theres definitely a lot of nervousness out there, especially among the individual investors i spoke with and many realized, look, these trades i piled into, for example, day trading, buying the Ark Innovation etf, a lot of those trades that worked the past two years are no longer working. Even though we are seeing individual investors buy the dip to some degree this year, that doesnt mean theyre not anxious about it that doesnt mean there hasnt been other shifts in behavior. For example, intraday trading individual investors hit the lowest level since january 2022. Before the onset of the pandemic, that drew millions of new investors into markets. We just show them infloes people piling into the ark net inflows into equity funds are actually up for much of the rising times in the market, the infloes were actually negative they werent inflows and i wish ron were here, maybe you know it as well, but remember, i happily only remember a very little part of this, between 1929, when the market cracked in 1929, it did not get above its precrash high for Something Like till 1954 or Something Like that, the year i was born im telling you, these downturns can last a long, long time, and it is not necessarily a given that the market is going to go back and take out the alltime high that we set at the first of this year. Just saying. It seems downright impossible to say right now and to even predict right now, but i think that is one big shift this year, right . Suddenly investors have someplace else to place their cash take a look at the twoyear treasury yield, the tenyear treasury yield ultrasafe government bonds look attractive for the first time in years. Real yields are edging higher. It really puts a dent in that tina trade that carried markets the past few years no one knows how long this is going to last but one thing is for sure, its incredibly different from other selloffs weve had in recent years. The other thing we have seen is this really frothy excitement over cryptos, over meme stocks if youre a new investor and thats what youre paying attention to, boy, have you been soarly disappointed in the last couple of months are you getting the sense when you talk to Retail Investors, that theyre looking at some other big names . Meta is way off its yeartodate highs. Its yeartodate lows if youre looking at some of these bigger names that might be familiar to Retail Investors, are they starting to see the amazons of the world, the metas of the world as safe bets . One thing thats really fascinating is that the faang trade has started to show crack this is year those stocks are underperforming the Broader Market one trend ive observed and thats come up repeatedly in my conversation with individual investors is they still tend to hang onto those faang stocks many Institutional Investors in the Broader Market has kind of soured on those names. And another fascinating aspect is that even though, you know, meme stocks have tumbled this year, that frothiness isnt there, it does seem to come back from time to time. For example, last wednesday the Ark Innovation etf recorded its biggest one day of inflows since june or july while the Broader Market was tumbling i think some of those old habits are dying hard right now so good to have you here. Thank you. Thank you after the break, macaw casino stocks are surging today. China is ready to start permitting tour groups back into the gambling hub for the first time in nearly three years well move through these moves next. Its not a straight flush for china. The country facing a major blow as apple moves manufacturing to india. Details on that story. Before the break, a reminder, cnbcs delivering alpha returns in person this week yea you can scan the qr code on your screen or go to cnbcevent. Com if youre listening on the radio and register there we will be right back. Macaw casino stocks moving higher sharply after they will issue visa electronically and lifting covid restrictions melco traded here up 30 Las Vegas Sands up 12 wynn up 12. 5 as well. Mgm up half a percentage point they rely far less heavily on its revenue from macaw than the others for the first eight months of this year, official figures show tourism off 86 from prepandemic levels. But now were getting this announcement, the loosening of covid travel requirements and the top tourism official says he anticipates macaw could seen between 20,000 and 40,000 visitors daily as soon as october 1st, which is a holiday there. Prepandemic levels though, tyler, the daily average was 113,000 visitors so, youre seeing like, great, youre making progress off what it was earlier this year when you had visitation youre still a third of where you were. There is just no clearcut path forward for macaw until they open these restrictions right now, theyre still maintaining the quarantine requirements for International Visitors they have to stay for a week in hotels to quarantine. How big a convention and business destination is it not that much but theyre trying to change that. Not as much as las vegas. Weve seen singapore become a hot des hotdestination for big expos and conventions and meetings macaws they are starting to look at the convention and meeting space as an opportunity. Theyre starting to look at are there other entertainment possibilities, like should there be a theme park in macao when people come like las vegas, yes, grandma can gamble but you also have things for children to do and a more diversified economy. Interesting stuff. Lets get to Bertha Coombs with our cnbc news update. Heres whats happening at this hour. Former u. S. Secretary security contractor Edward Snowden has been granted russian citizenship. Snowdon has been living in russia since 2013 to escape prosecution in the u. S. For having leaked secrets about american surveillance programs. In rio three people have died during a Police Operation against drug gangs traffic on some main roads ground to a halt as commuters reportedly left their cars to take cover from bullets flying overhead. And back here at the white house, President Biden welcomed the Atlanta Braves to celebrate their world series win from last year he called their comefrombehind victory one of historys greatest turnarounds. You made the playoffs and beat the brewers and dodgers, and then you beat the astros to win it all, forever known as the upset kings of october well, looks like they may be headed back to the playoffs for another chance at maybe winning another series back over to you, tyler. They are extremely good theyve been neck and neck with the mets all summer long the mets have had them by about a game we shall see theyll both be in the playoffs. Ahead on power lunch, the energy trade losing some steam nat gas down 25 this month on recession fears. And Big Oil Firms like chevron losing their gains from earlier this year. That name, along with meta dragging down stephanies pick. Has to be a bummer for stephanie. Here 2022 stock draft porfolio, David Robinson is in the lead thanks to chipotle and rivian. Trading day. We to want get you caught up on the market, stocks, bonds and commodities and the plunge in Natural Gas Prices lets begin with bob pisani at the New York Stock Exchange where stocks remain under pressure. We were doing fine until about noon and thats when the tenyear yield, all the treasury yields started moving to the upside 20 basis points today in the tenyear thats enough to really hurt stocks here. Two sectors are hitting new lows here expansion of new lows like we saw on friday. Financials and technology, citigroup had a new low, regional super regionals like u. S. Bank corp and credit cards, mastercard, visa visa is about to crack 180 visa was 206 about two weeks ago. Were talking 12 or 13 down in visa in just the last 12, 13 days the other big group is big cap tech hitting new lows. Intel is almost every day. Advance micro, service now, meta, adobe, oracle. The list is getting longer here, similar to what happened on friday one group thats been sitting in the new low list for weeks now is the transports on the fedex news a couple of weeks ago u. P. S. , southwest, norfolk southern, csx at 52week lows. Any bright spots out there the mortal words of john bea belushi, id start drinking heavily. Keurig up, starbucks up, constellation, thats jack daniels. The twoyear is trading at its highest level since 2007, near 4. 3 yield at this point. The tenyear yield, look at this, session high right now of 3. 9 , it has not closed at 4 or more since october 2008. Oil closing just up 2 for the year it was up 70 yeartodate in march. The cnbc commodity desk for us, hi, pippa. What a turnaround its been for oil. Sinking once again today with wti hitting its lowest level since january 4th. This is after the contracts posted a fourth straight week of losses the longest weekly losing streak of the year. Now, the major driver of todays action is the strengthing dollar this impacts oil since its priced in dollars making it more expensive for foreign buyers the currency volatility isnt likely to slow any time soon, which means oil will be on a, quote, very long roller coaster ride lets check on closing prices here wti down 2. 5 at 76. 69 brent crude around 84 for a loss of 2. 5 Energy Stocks are falling today alongside the restof the market the sector is down about 2. 1 , but it is holding up better than some other groups. Haliburton and baker hughes are the biggest losers turning to natural gas, it is in the green and well off the worst levels of the ay, which saw it down more than 4 . Over in europe, prices falling today and now down more than 40 in the last month. Con tess sna. Thats a big decline. Thank you for that. Nor more on the reversal in the nat gas prices and whether further declines are ahead, lets bring in bill perkins with skyler capital, ceo and head trader whats behind the decline . I think basically global macro. You have the fed basically dropping the hammer on assets and we had a very tight market, supply was growing there was concern, would we have enough in storage for the winter those concerns have eased a bit and that led to a selloff. If average monthly production this year has exceeded all other years, how is demand matching up with that . Are we going to see lower prices here in the United States . Normally we use the natural gas we produce are we going to see that lead to lower heating bills . You would think so, except we also export a lot of gas to our neighbors in europe who need it. Theres a supply dus rupgs with a little thing called the ukrainian war going on right now. That is where we see a commensurate increase. Were tightly balanced any kind of upsetting of the apple cart one way or the other will lead to wild price swings we were pretty high in prices and then we saw that demand was starting to back off and prices have come much farther count to earth. We are heading into winter so you have to be careful the mean and the median, they are wildly divergent that means the average price is very high but the favorite price is lower we have to price in the case where we have a cold winter and prices go to 50. We are really getting into the height of the atlantic Hurricane Season weve started to see a lot more activity keeping an eye on ian heading towards florida. Give me a sense of how that might influence natural gas and what were seeing with the price declines in the old days a hurricane was a bullish event because it would knock off more supply than demand nowadays, a hurricane in the gulf is a decidedly bearish impact it destroys demand, we have Power Outages and we also stop the exporting of lng if we had it further in the gulf, it would be very bearish right now its mildly bearish by knocking off some florida demand for some period of time and cooling down the temperatures. Things have changed in the last ten years. Any type of hurricane in the gulf is bearish u. S. , generally, and bullish europe. Im going to ask maybe a naive question here. If im a consumer in the United States or europe, and i would like to see prices come down so im not walloped when my heating bills come out this winter or my driving charges go down, should i be rooting for a recession that would take some demand out of the equation . I think it depends on how stable your job is in that recession. Its kind of hard to root for economic pain. But what you really should be rooting for is investment in supply and growth of supply for stable prices. A recession would be nice in the short term but who are you going to go on vacation with when your neighbors are out of work . But obviously increasing supply is going to run up against dose mestically and globally against those who oppose the expansion of fossil fuels. Its a great time to be a trader maybe not such a great time to be a consumer because you have so much opposition to anything that increases the stability of prices mainly more supply are there particular companies, particular stocks in this space that you like, bill i really like distribution a little midstream companies. Energy transfer might be one of them i have to put up a disclaim. Im long Energy Transfer i like it because they have longterm fixed contracts. Gas needs to be moved through the piles. Oil needs to be moved through the pipes and this isnt going away for some time theyre not as exposed to the wild Price Fluctuations on a daytoday basis maybe 10 of their earnings are. As weve grown the permian, as we bring on new supply, it has to be transported, soy really Like Companies that are a little more stable and insulated from the volatility im already in the volatility game, so why do i need im already chopping up in the most volatility market there is. Tap dancing back and forth. Yeah. You know, rooting for a recession might be like rooting for war. The profiteers do it you might root for it if youre personally going to profit from it. To your point, tyler. Bill perkins, appreciate you being here thank you for having me. Up next, king dollar versus the tech titans. Mega. As we head to the break, throughout hispanic heritage month we celebrate our cnbc teammates and contributors here is cnbc associate producer karenna hernandez. Im a first generation Mexican American and im so proud of that. The reason i am where i am today is because of the sacrifices my parents made to move to this country to provide a Better Future for my sister and me. Its those sacrifices that give me the drive to excel in my career and make their sacrifices worth it my advice to other latinas is give it all youve got and dt it for others to take chance on you put yourself out there and take a chance on yourself first welcome back to power lunch. Costco is actually in positive territory today despite a price target cut by analysts over at Raymond James. Now, the firm did reiterate a buy rating on the stock, but those gains come as some investors and analysts speculate over and when the wholesale retailer will raise its membership fees with analysts at guggenheim predicting it will come some time in the spring costco chief Financial Officer said on the Earnings Call just this last week that its a question of when not if the club will raise membership prices nonetheless, those costco shares up 3 on the day ty, back over to you. Dom, thank you, sir. Tech stocks coming off their worst twoweek stretch since the pandemic and the strengthening dollar causing some tech titans to make changes. Steve kovacs has a breakdown of the move as we head into the Fourth Quarter steve, a lot of these Big Tech Companies this do a lot of business overseas, they could get nicked a little bit. Thats right, tyler they have huge revenue exposure overseas lets break them down name by name, starting with apple. We know how apple is combating these foreign headwind theyve raised products on a lot of products. The new iphone 14 line in the eu will cost 100 euro more than last years iphone 13 cost on the app store starting next month, apps will get more expensive. All of this is to combat Foreign Exchange inflation meta raises prices on Virtual Reality headsets and the cfo warning on the last Earnings Report that, look, revenue will get hit in its Metaverse Division by 6 or so because of these headwinds. Microsoft, on the other hand, already saw its earnings whacked a bit last quarter because of Foreign Exchange headwinds, shaving six cents off eps and its only expected to get worse as the year continues. Although cfo amy hood of microsoft saying things will improve in the first half of calendar year 2023 on the amazon front and alphabet, mixed signals from those two. Theres some downturn on the advertising side but amazon says its able to project its profits a little better but the Foreign Exchange will hurt revenue were just on the cusp of earnings season, so well get a lot more data of what these companies are seeing in the next few weeks. Well, steve, im just curious whether its mostly the hits are coming from what it costs consumers internationally to buy these products and services from u. S. Companies or are there other ways the currency is coming in to play . Yeah, the other ways are part of it is with the app store. For example, with apple, theyre going to have to increase prices there. Thats where that comes in whats interesting to me, contessa, how much Pricing Power do these companies have going into potentially a global recession . Are they going to be able to raise prices well find out more color from that soon. Lets talk more about apple, different direction here now making the iphone 14 in india. Its really its not that they havent made phones in india before, but this is, am i correct, one of the first times if not the first time theyve made one of their brandnew signature products in that country. Yeah, its a little bit of a mixed bag here, tyler. I was with you guys just this spring saying, hey, look, theyre building the new iphone 13 out in india. A good six to nine months after they first released it now theyre doing it just a couple weeks after this is a significant move from apple showing, look, we have things in place in india to the point where we can almost simultaneously produce a brandnew iphone line at the same time we do it in china. And as we know, this helps protect them a lot from those covid restrictions weve been seeing throughout the country and also, look, tim cook and apple, theyve been looking at india for the better part of a decade now trying to figure out how to make that market work for them so many indians cant afford iphones, but what they have discovered is they can do the production there cheaply and on par with china thats a significant move throughout apple supply chain to help them diversify so theyre not so reliant on the whims of china. That sounds like a smart move, which apple does quite often. Steve, thank you very much. Thank you. Still to come, a special edition of three stock lunch well check in on the cnbc stock draft. Who holds strong amid this market turmoil well be right back. Flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling. To fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals. Strengthening client confidence in you. Before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Welcome back with the bears in control of the market and football season in full swing, i dont know how the bears are doing, we are revisiting our stock draft to see how some of our contestants portfolios are holding up amid the volatility David Robinson, the admiral, currently number one in fact, hes the only one in the green, up by about 4 and today were going to start by taking a look at the strongest link stephanie link is currently in sixth place. Her portfolio of meta and chevron showing weakness there down about 22 meta down 30 since the draft. Stephanie joins us now lets start by going listen, steph. You got lots of company here in the negative column. Youre not alone at all. Ls only one person who has positive returns, obviously its a matter of timing lets talk about meta a little bit. This stock has been cut up with razor blades lately. Yeah, it really has i have one winner and one loser. But i still like it, tyler it is down 58 year to date. It trades now at about 11. 6 times earnings, 7 times ebitda and these guys have the size and the scale and the eyeballs that the digital advertisers are looking for in terms of rois, right . So i think they have to fix reels. But i think they will be able to do so and there was speculation last week that they were going to cut 10 in their cost structure which could save them about 6 billion or so. So they have some flexibility there. Free cash flow of 20 billion, they have a lot of Financial Flexibility going forward. I was asking a previous guest about this if you have Retail Investors who are going in, theyre sold on the conventional wisdom of buying the dip, meta might look like a familiar product to most Retail Investors and, two, the fact that its down so much, it might look like a buying opportunity. I really think it is, but ive been saying that, contessa, for the last several months. Unfortunately, its not been a great choice i think theres real value they do have size and scale. They have 2 and 3 billion in monthly and daily active users those are real eyeballs, so i think that the obviously theyre having a slump here. Theres a lot they have to deal with but i think this valuation is very compelling. You also have conviction about chevron that, you know you had some early gains during energys climb but now its dragging a bit would you still stick with it . Yeah, i would the stock is trading at 7. 7 times earning and i think the Energy Industry has changed because of buybacks, dividends and special dividends. These guys raised their Buyback Program up to 15 billion and their free cash even below 80 oil, theyre generating 11. 2 per quarter in free cash flow. They have great assets and they have Pricing Power lets end on a hypothetical if the draft were happening today, set aside your two picks, what would be your top pick right now . I like cybersecurity, i like palo alto. I dont own it in my portfolio i happen to own fortinet. Theyre growing total revenues to 20 , product revs at 20 . Billings in the upper 30 . A lot of good visibility power the reason i dont own it in my portfolio yet, its held up remarkably well. If it were to pull back more, thats when i would be buying it. Thank you very much we appreciate it always great to see you. Thank you. Up next, return to work and the cost of childcare. Well go under the microscope. And a quick look at the nasdaq which made its way back into positive territory the little engine that just cant be stopped well be right back after this break. Welcome back to power lunch. As workers return to the office, theres a shift under way in childcare and dominic chu is back with us. These are trends that have started since the pandemic and are only getting just exacerbated at this point. And it comes to the huge cost of childcare in this country. Earlier this summer the folks at care. Com, a website that a lot of parents use to find care for their kids, did a survey and found out just about the proximate cost of what it costs for nannies. It turns out that the weekly rate versus prepandemic today for a nanny is 694. Now the important part is thats up 23 from what it was prepandemic. So 700 a week to have a nanny now when it comes to Childcare Centers, think of day cares and that sort of thing, its a much better cost, right, at about 225 per week. A thousand dollars a month its still a lot of money. But the reason why its important is because many of the people who used to work at Childcare Centers have now found higher wages, which is good for workers, of course, going to be private nannies. The issue is, you now have a worker shortage at Childcare Centers because all of the people who used to work there are getting hired as private nannies for more money thats an issue. Because most families in america cannot afford to have a private nanny so they send their kids to day care one of the interesting parts about this is they dealt into some of the percentages as to what people are feeling right now. It turns out that even now, 40 of families are finding trouble having a nanny around. They cant even find the people to have the work 39 are having trouble finding help through a childcare center, and 37 are having problems just trying to book a babysitter for the weekend or anything else it just goes to show you just how dislocated the labor market has become and what its going to possibly look like down the line. And now you have 15yearolds telling you that youre going to pay 25 an hour just for a couple nights out. 25 is good. Im paying 20 right now and i think its huge you pay what the market will bear. Its good for workers, i guess. I sure is. Thank you for watching power lunch. Closing bell starts right now. The dow and the s p 500 losing some steam after that failed early rally attempt the nasdaq is making a lateday comeback the most important hour of trading starts right now welcome to closing bell. The s p tried to reclaim 3700. The bulls plans were foiled by hawkish fed speak. We got some pronounced weakness in materials and energy. Were going to talk to Rockefeller International chairman about the wild moves were seeing in currencies and what that means for th