Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20161004

Three hours left in the trading session. The dow is down fractionally, 57 points down. 3m, verizon and chevron are your laggards. A couple of dow stocks are up, however, there is one massive move out there. Not in stocks. It is in gold. Gold is trading at a threemonth low, it is down 35 an ounce. As you might imagine, gold miners also getting wha inting they are deep in the red at this hour. Google unveiling a new phone at a product event under way in San Francisco. Google says the new phone costs 649 and has unlimited storage. Delta posted a smaller than expected drop in passenger unit revenues for the month of september. And sears popping within just the past two hours on reports that bids for the companys draftsman unit due by the end of this month. If you are a retailer or a shopper, this may be the most important number in the show. 81 shopping days left until christmas. A new report by the National Retail federation telling us that santa claus is coming to town this year. Courtney reagan is here to break down the numbers. Ho, ho, ho. Political unrest be darned, santa claus is bullish. The National Retail federation is out with its holiday Sales Forecast projecting a 3. 6 increase over last year. 2015 holiday sales grew 3 . That is below what the group had forecast but still above the tenyear average. We should consider that includes the negative sales year of 2008. Jack klein says he is more bullish this year because fundamentals are better. More americans are, woulding. Net worth and incomes are up. Last year the chinese yuan devaluation shocked some confidence for investors. We havent had an event like that. There is no indication they see the election will mean a negative hit to holiday sales. The retail lobby group is not alone in its optimistic forecast. In fact, retail next Alex Partners are among those projecting total holiday sales will improve somewhere between 3. 2 and 4 . The International Council of Shopping Centers is looking for sales at physical stores only to grow 3. 3 . Thats a percent higher than what they saw last year. But icscs survey also indicates 59 of shoppers will spend on amazon. Com this season. When it comes to online holiday Sales Forecasts, these numbers vary wildly from 7 to 19 growth. The one thing is sure, brian more shoppers are looking online, whether it is just browsing or buying or both. Courtney reagan, thank you very much. See you soon. If Holiday Retail forecast looking rather jolly, what stocks might be good holiday buys for your portfolio . Lets get some ideas. Bring in oliver chen, senior retail analyst at cowen and company. One of the bases for your thesis is you or other expect it to be a cold december. So if thats right, if that forecast is correct that it will be cold, what companies, what stocks are going to benefit . Were excited about the cooler temperatures which should be great because everybody will be totally pumped to wear outer wear and buy outer wear. Temperatures should turn cooler by the holidays. November, december will be a lot cooler than last year. How can you make this . We like names like ross stores. We also think Department Stores could be in a good position here because of better inventory trends in terms of tighter management of inventory, as well as good demand and better weather. We like nordstrom. We have a neutral rating on macys. However, we do acknowledge that sales trends could be pretty good. Fashion is working, too. There is some newness here. People are wearing jeans again. There is a lot of shoulder interest. Changes in fashion matter for really getting the shoppers out. We think it will be a great season for getting awesome bargains, too, across all of my retailers. What if the weather forecast, oliver, is incorrect . What if like last year we have an Indian Summer around we have a 72degree day on christmas. Then what . Is there anybody in your coverage universe that would still win outside of a colder winter here in the east . Were excited for this concept of value. Everybody loves a great deal so you think about tjx, you think about ross. You are Getting National brands at 40 to 50 off. There are so many great gift giving there, too. We think those retailers really stand to benefit through thick and thin. Also i would say beauty. Beauty and athleisure. We like a name like ulta because she loves a trend, she loves strobing, she loves really thinking about contouring. No makeup makeup. The beauty trend is relevant to all kinds of consumers. Wearing yoga pants. You are wearing this casualization to work, out on the weekends. Thats really working. Lululemon has done a great job with that kind of look. So there are ideas that should work through weather thats thick and thin. Generally speaking, better fashion is less sensitive to weather. People are going to wear less makeup or no makeup or makeup that looks like no makeup or makeup that looks like less makeup . And what did you talk about shoulders . Well, in apparel, what we need to see is just little changes. If you think about the womens tops business, theres a lot more shoulder detail, off the shoulder tops, as well as tops that reveal more of your shoulder. So anything shoulders are big this year, is what youre saying. The cold shoulder. They do actually call it the cold shoulder. You got the cold and the shoulder. Thats pretty good. I like that. Cold and the shoulder. You can buy makeup that looks like youre not wearing makeup which is great makeup because you look very natural and you still look your best. Like you, tyler. Like me like me. I look like im not wearing makeup, but i am. And you look your best. Im not alicia keys. You know what i mean . Shes not wearing the makeup on the voice. Oliver, thank you. Thank you. Well, shopping can make you hungry. Olive garden is apparently benefiting. Parent Company Darden Restaurants posting better than expected numbers. We called it the breadstick boom because who can famously forget that hedge fund coming in and saying, hey, guess what . You guys need to switch the game up two years ago. Youre doing the breadsticks all wrong, youre cooking the pasta all wrong. Has their program i was skeptical at the time. Has their Program Actually worked at darden . It looks like it has. Starboard actually has their Board Members have sort of backed away at this point but they still have forward momentum. So much so that sales are all going up. 2 . Far outperforming the rest of casual dining. The key to this is not just better inrestaurant experience, but also offpremise sales. Thats the togo business. Thats catering. That accounts for 11 of tote of sales. Thats up a full 50 just in the last three years. Clearly a booming business for darden. They also gained some more of their sales from Online Mobile ordering. That increases convenience for the consumer. Look at the restaurant industry, look at dominos, panera. Now darden i think is joining this group that have unlocked Key Technology and making it work for them. What else is there left for the stock . We are showing a twoyear chart and the gain looks impressive. But in the past year it hasnt been a great stock. Yes, there are woes across the casual dining space. But in terms of these fundamental changes starboard had been pushing, they have stepped away saying, you know what . Theyve done a good job. What else is there for this company . I think certainly the olive garden turnaround has been well under way. Other key piece of the turnaround at darden is the growth story at dardens smaller brands, higher end brands like yardhouse, bahama breeze, capital grill. For the most part were seeing some growth out of them. Yardhouse in particular. These are brands that cater to millennials. These are you have a higher percentage of alcoholic Beverage Business than the rest of the company, and this is what we see as the future of darden going forward. This is it continues to be a new growth story. Well see for the next several years. I think yardhouse can be a billionplus brand. Bahama breeze can be a several hundred Million Dollar brand. Stephen anderson, well leave it there. The view from the International Space station as it passed over Hurricane Matthew last night. There you see the eye right there. Category 4 storm slamming into haiti at this hour. Winds up to 145 miles an hour and record rainfalls being measured not in inches, but in feet. Nbcs Kerry Sanders is live in cuba with the latest. Hi, kerry. Reporter hi, tyler. Well, theyre preparing here where four years ago they saw a tremendous amount of damage when Hurricane Sandy came ashore so they know what to expect. It is why with an 11foot storm surge predicted, anybody along the coast here has been told to leave. As you look up there in the mountains there where Fidel Castros army collected many, many years ago, you can see the rain clouds there. The folks who live up there have all been evacuated as well. Many of them went down to the college in guantanamo, the university at guantanamo where they are hold up now and will ride out the storm. They recognize that this is a powerful storm again because they saw what happened here four years ago. 11 people died. More than 135,000 structures with severe damage. More than 5,000 completely destroyed. Interestingly, there were high tides here yesterday and the seas got a little rough, so theres already been some damage here along the coast to some homes, folks who had to evacuate last night. Thats even before matthew arrives. We should begin seeing the real effects of matthew here, guys, probably at around 6 00, 7 00 tonight. Kerry sanders, thank you in cuba for us. Breaking news on yahoo . Straight to dom. We have a reuters story citing sources saying that yahoo back last year in 2015 built a custom made Software Program that allowed it to scan user account emails and whatnot for the u. S. Government. The story goes on to say that they built this secret custom Software Program to search all customers incoming emails for specific info provided by u. S. Intelligence officials. That according to people familiar with the matter. The company says it says complied with a u. S. Classified government directive scanning all of these emails accounts, hundreds of millions at times, for the National Security agency or fbi, this is according to two former employees and a third person with knowledge of the matter. So an Interesting Development here with regard to yahoo . We know about its pending acquisition by verizon and its aol unit. All of this coming amidst the biggest, broadest hacking allegations. An interesting story out of reuters for those particular shares. They are little changed right now. Did i hear you right that this was following a directive basically a court type order or a National Security order . This is they said that they complied with a government request to scan incoming emails for certain key words and phrases. But again, it is important to note that this is nothing on the record right now. We have reached out to yahoo for a comment on this particular story. We have not heard back yet. But it also did go on to say that there wasnt any indication or they didnt know what the specific information was that the government was looking for in this case here. But still interesting story given all the headlines that yahoo s been a part of over the past couple of weeks. This is fascinating, especially with the backdrop of apple essentially saying no to the u. S. Government when it comes to access to a particular phone for a particular case which probably rallied the public to say, if there is ever a case of a Technology Company saying were going to help the u. S. Government, this might be the case. Here we have yahoo granted, details are very limited right now. But to not even know what youre scanning for, thats sort of an interesting thing, too. It pits the tech giants. It brings up the debate about whether or not these Tech Companies should be a part of this whole fold. There is a great group of people out there who believe that the u. S. Government has the right and because of our security concerns should be going through this kind of information and make sure that there is no terrorist threat. Then there are those who say that the paramount of Civil Liberties here is that personal privacy issue. So sorry to jump in here, guys. Not taking away from the headline, but lets be clear here. This has been going on for a while. Maybe not at yahoo but at others. Part of the leaks that came out of the wikileaks thing for ed snowden was that there were government programs, one called prism which issen a acronym. Bun called e key score which have been used to track peoples emails. This all came from the guardians reporting, the ed snowden, wikileaks stuff. Not knocking yahoo . Not saying it is not a big deal. However, it is likely that when you look at some other online email providers under these nsa programs, there is another acronym there with the nsa. Are these nsa sanctions. Thats different from pulling in a company a publicly traded company that is private, in other words outside the government. No, no, because they are all released on to these servers. People dont realize, if you are a huge yahoo mail at work or zbch gmail at work, it belongs to your employer. I want to point something out thats important. Yahoo did issue a statement as part of this particular story here. Yahoo is a lawabiding company and complies with the laws of the United States and so thats their only statement so far as part of that reuters story. Weve reached out to see if they would provide any adigditional comment on this particular issue. But they did put their side out there. I wanted to make sure we got that out there. Excellent timing for you tomorrow, tyler. Exactly. The Cyber Security summit is in focus in cambridge tomorrow. It is the Cyber Security summit in partnership with m. I. T. And aspen institute. Heavy hitters from the nsa, Homeland Security, fbi and others will be there in cambridge tomorrow. You can register at cnbc. Com cyber summit. Meantime, taking a check on the Broader Markets, we are close to session lows right now with the dow down 84 points. S p down just about 10. Right now big moves though in the treasury markets, as well as gold. Gold seeing the biggest move in about 18 months. Donald trump saying he used the u. S. Tax code brilliantly to limit the amount he paid in taxes. Well take a look at the 90s recession that led to mr. Trumps big real estate losses and find out what imapact it ha on his campaign. Power lunch is back in 2 00. Now thedexas helped us simpli oururcommerce, could focus on bigger issues, like our psive aggressive enronment. Were not passive gressive. Hey, hey, hey, there are no no matter how lame they are. Well said, ann. Ive always admirehow you just s s w wts inour head, without thinki. Ve brave. Good point ted. Youre living proof that looks arent erything. Thanwelcom ted. So, fex help simply our ecommerce busines and this inot a ssive aggresve eironment. I just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great b. Whats that supposed to mean . Fex. Helping small busine simplify ecommerce. There is no reason Deutsche Bank shouldnt get over its problems. They have plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity. We want all of these banks to get through because it is better for anybody that we kind of move on and help do our jobs funding society. Jpmorgan weighing in on Deutsche Bank yesterday. Today Deutsche Bank up better than 1 . Jeff cutmore is here to talk about deutsche, brexit and more. Is mr. Dimon right, theyre going to be in perfect position to get through their troubles . What youve got going on here is project verbal intervention. He is not the only person out there in the market talking at the moment. Weve seen a slew of German Company ceos who i feel have been encouraged by Deutsche Bank to come out, step up, say they feel there is no issue with liquidity with this organization. On the face of it, the numbers appear to stack up. This is a business with assets of what . Around 1. 8 trillion . Equity capital probably in excess of 60 trillion at the moment. Clearly the market is worried about current market capitalization given the 14 billion fine thats been talked about. But at billion. Billion. Billio billion. Millions would be great. Wed all be rushing out to buy Deutsche Bank stock, wouldnt we, if that were the case. But given thats the fine thats been talked about and this 5. 4 billion has been thrown around in the market and nobody actually knows whats going on here, i think youve just got to focus on the facts. The verbal intervention is working. Share price is up 1. 5 today in the european trading session. But its very difficult to know what the outcome is going to be here given that the lending of Deutsche Bank shares now on the short side is at a oneyear high. So lot of people are just punting this stock around, i think, with very little real information to go on as far as the doj is concerned. You enter this stock at your risk, i would suggest. It is a trading story. We tant want to talk more about the banks in general. Your firm is underperform on Deutsche Bank but not because of concerns about capital or liquidity. It is simply because the Interest Rate environment is horrible. How does kbw view what is going on with Deutsche Bank and the possible fine, possible penalties from the doj . Thats right, melissa. The fundamental problem behind all this is Deutsche Bank just doesnt make any money. In the short term, i agree with jeff. I think liquidity is there. Stated capital based on regulation is there. The real problem is nobody really wants to invest in Deutsche Bank because we expect if Interest Rates are negative they only have a 1 return on equity. There is essentially a run on equity in Deutsche Bank. Not because so much of these things that happen because of the Balance Sheet but because they simply dont make money. Have to agree with you. The numbers are very ugly when you look to cost to income ratios and all other metrics that would show you this is a valuable business that is going to grow its way out of its current problems. My question would be, do you think that the ceo has the right Restructuring Program in place now to turn this around . He always told the market 2016 would be a tough year. But do you think he can sell enough assets and level the ship and restore perhaps the Capital Markets business running into 2017 as we see general improvement in Risk Appetite . We dont think so. The real problem with Deutsche Bank is we think is he doing a lot of the right things. But the core businesses at Deutsche Bank just arent that much profitable, whether you look at german retail or as global Capital Markets. That coupled with the view that we could have negative Interest Rates in europe for a decade makes it very difficult to think that thats going to work and it is investable. Are you saying that even though people say that Deutsche Bank has a lot of options in terms of selling assets, you are saying those assets are not attractive. Right. If the whole company only has a 5 r. O. E. , what happens if you sell profitable ones . Your Balance Sheet gets stronger but you are left with even less profitable returns. Paul, you cover a big swath of the u. S. Banks here. Weve seen them trade in ten dam until just the past couple of sessions or so. What is the concern here when it comes to Deutsche Bank on the u. S. Banks . Is there a concern on your part or do you think this is just negative sentiment sweeping the market . I think it is just negative sentiment on the market. What u. S. Banks or all banks is stability. With Deutsche Bank, people talk about it failing or 14 billion fine. All that brings instability to the system. Thats why you saw the 10year bouncing a little bit over the last two days as the market feels were getting back to a more stable environment. Thats why you see these banks react positively today. But it is really based on stability more than anything else. I think the bull case would be clear that Deutsche Bank would pay a fine smaller than the originally reported fine, banks go back to normal, u. S. Trades on its fundamental. What though is the bear Case Scenario in your view, the Case Scenario for u. S. Banks when it comes to the scenario surrounding Deutsche Bank . Well, if something does happen to Deutsche Bank im not saying it is going to. Fred is more of an expert on this than i am. But if Deutsche Bank was to fail or their 14 billion fine came back out and it led to more instability, the 10year continues to fall like it did in brexit. I think it fell then in 1. 3 , 1. 2 level. You are also talking about earnings. R. O. E. S will continue to come under pressure as long as that yield curve flattens. Thats really whats happening today. You saw stability or people perception of stability and the yield curve starting to steepen a little bit. Thats why you are seeing some recovery in these banks today. Fred, same question to you. Do you see a contagion or knockon effect in u. S. Banks or other global banks . Yes, but it is very different. It is not like 2008 or 2011. This is a profitability crisis. As paul suggests, all these risk metrics for banks are going up because of the spillover effect. The fact is, if a bank could only make 1 of r. O. E over time they cant get capital and that creates a crisis. It is not an immediate crisis. It is really an earnings crisis paul was just mentioning. I think it can be back into the u. S. Through volatility, earnings pressure. Thats really the risk here. Gentlemen, well leave it there. Jeff, just quickly, you are here in the United States because the ceo of Deutsche Bank is here in the United States ahead of the imf meeting. Absolutely. I feel like were stalking him because he is coming through new york, then hell be heading off to washington, hell be in d. C. At the Imf World Bank meeting. It would be great if we can find an opportunity to speak to him or the cfo. But i will assume that we will not hear very much until they actually get a doj settlement, because i cant see why it is in their interest to talk until that happens. I can ask you the european view though . Here we debated two things the 14. 5 billion fine number. The market hated that. The french press had their single i think right . They are the only source on this story so far, which is good and bad potentially, about a 5 billion fine and the market rallied. Whats the european view on those market headlines and are people buying into it . No, any are not. I think the european view is we dont know where this number came from, you havent managed to stand up the source for the story to demonstrate that this is a credible number at this point. It is perhaps telling that this number almost matches the provisions that Deutsche Bank has made for further litigation. You kind of think, hey little too convenient. Where did that figure come from . I tell you what is happening in europe, which is interesting, is that people are now looking at the Regulatory Framework put in place since the financial crisis and saying, this resolution system now smells funny. Because this would prevent the German Government from stepping in and bailing out who is going to be the lender of last resort if we have a future banking crisis in europe. It is raising some very interesting questions in europe. Jeff cutmore, good to see you on set, buddy. Safe travels. Kim kardashian robbed of 10 million or more in jewels in paris. Could her instagram feed have played a part in the heist . We are going to bring you the latest straight ahead on power lunch. It been over 100 years since the first stock index was created, as a benmark for avege. Yet a lot ofeople stilil portlios with sategies that just track the bencarks but investing isnt about achieving average. Its about achieving goa. And vesco believes doing that toy reires the art and expertise of highconviction investg. Translation . Why invest in ere . Lunch time machine now to look at the recession that nearly toppled Donald Trumps empire. How do the early 90s compare with the Great Recession of 0809. Back to the 90s. In a Campaign Speech yesterday donald trump said the 90 recession was much worse than the Great Recession of 2008. The conditions facing Real Estate Developers in that early 90 period were almost as bad as the Great Depression of 1929 and far worse than the Great Recession of 2008. Not even close. That may be a little puzzling to most americans since 8. 7 million jobs were lost in 2008 compared to 1. 7 million in 1990. Millions more lost their homes in 2008. Of course, the Unemployment Rate peaked at 10 compared with just over 7 in that 1990 recession. But in the trump world, 1990 was devastating. Thats because of its two biggest exposures were bank loans and new York Real Estate. By 1990 trump had more than 3 billion in debt with personal guarantees on more than 800 million. New York Real Estate prices plunged by more than onethird. He put three casinos and the plaza hotel into bankruptcy. Forbes kicked him off the rich list and his banks put him on an austerity plan of over 450,000 a month. Trump tells a story of walking past a homeless back in new york city in the 1990s and saying that homeless man is worth 900 million more than me. By the 2008 recession trump was back on top. He had very little debt and he earned a lot of his income by licensing his name. In 2008 forbes put his net worth a the 300 million. He and his family bought several distressed properties, including doral golf course, the trump winery at a discount. What most americans call the Great Recession was more like the great opportunity for the donald. Robert, thank you very much. Larry kudlow, cnbcs senior contributor and an informal advisor to the trump campaign. I dont know where to begin here. There is so much to discuss. I understand. But the comparison of the 2008 recession and the 1990 recession seems very different. They had different causes. Yes. And i take his point. I think his point was that for Real Estate Developers, that one was the perfect storm. Commercial real estate was for wall Street Commercial real estate was crushed. The rest of the economy it was a very mild recession. There was an oil shock. We went to war in the gulf war. But i think robert has it right. Overall, macro economics. It was overbuilding, overleverage. It was centered in texas, among other places. But everything crashed. Anything to do with commercial real estate, with banks. By the way, lets not forget ky just roll this tape back a little bit here. Sure. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 which did some good things. It lowered rates and this and that, very helpful. However, however, it absolutely destroyed real estate. What they did was, they lengthened appreciation which are tax writeoffs, including passive investors who wanted those tax writeoffs. They lengthened it and they did not grandfather existing deals. It was a bloodbath. So what happened, 82. Go back even a little further. In 82 you had this extended depreciation that was put in the tax cuts under reagan. 86 shortened. 86 they changed it though no, shortened. The point is that in 86 then they changed it so investorscen investments in the commercial Real Estate Market to the point where in 89 the government had to put in a recovery and reform act under you just for commercial real estate. Probably the reason it was worse then than 08 is because in 08 you had all these backstops. I think thats fair. I think there was a lot more hardship in 08, 09. But in commercial real estate, thats a very fair point. Look, we shortened depreciation in 1982. Ive always wanted immediate expensing. I still want immediate expensing. But putting all that stuff aside, thousands of s and ls went under. The late bill seeden had to run up the Resolution Trust corporation in addition to running the fdic. That meant not only trying to close down s and ls and Smaller Banks who were lenders to these real estate projects but it also meant having to preside over the destruction of these Real Estate Companies because bank lending was not there. My question for larry is this. We still dont know exact will i who you trump came back from that neardeath 800 million personal guarantee. Personal loan. We got some hints that perhaps this 900 millionplus net operating loss that he used to possibly avoid taxes may have been part of that, and that loan may have been included in that. But we just dont know. And so he talks about the art of the deal, this is my great comeback, this shows why i am a great american. But we dont know the financial details of how he did it. I agree. There is a great New York Times story in april of 1995. I just happened to find this. It is about a speech he gave at the union league club. Mr. Trump. The writer of the times was there and called it the comeback king. Now that was 95. He had already rebounded from the disasters. I dont think the casinos ever worked for him. Okay . I just think the whole Atlantic City investment was not good. How did the tax code help him in all that . We dont know. Killed him. No, the tax code absolutely killed him. The net operating loss helped him. Eventually. Eventually. But you got to go down before you can go up. It is your thought that he also used the tax code in order to build himself back. Yes. Yes. I think the tax code using something un americans cant use net operating losses. Which, by the way, there ought to be a provision for that. This is a murky area which is going to be discussed with tax reform in the next congress, whether s corp. S and llcs should have the same privilege. I think they should. I think it should be equal. If you want reform, the issue of interest chargeoffs, that is to say you can deduct net interest expense, i have a problem with that. I think first of all it incurs a lot of debt in the country. Second of all, it is really only accessible to big handful of people. Most people you take it as a small thing. Third of all, i would give you full expensing. But i would take away the interest charge off. You could have one or the other. But if you have both, you really are going to pay a negative tax rate. I dont think thats right. A lot of reformers, including myself, would like to see the Interest Deduction eliminated from the tax code. You have called for mr. Trump to release his tax returns. I have. You have. So let the record show that. At least a summary. At least a summary of them. If he had followed your advice six months ago, last year, this wouldnt be as big a deal as it is six weeks before the election. I agree. I absolutely agree. He put himself in some jeopardy. As robert said, we still dont know the whole story. We may never know the whole story. I agree with that. When there is the hint of bad news out there and you are in politics, get it out there fast. Whats impressive is that forensic business journalists are starting to piece together the biggest mystery behind Donald Trumps financial career, which is how did he come back from the early 90s. Now we know that taxes played a big role. We also know that recessions are very different for the wealthy. Yeah. But i think im going to give the guy some credit, look. He managed to stay alive, first of all. Lot of of these guys went down. Yeah. Totally. Famous Real Estate Developers went down. Keating. I think he was very clever. I think he used banks, he negotiated with banks, in some sense brilliantly to keep his operation alive until conditions changed. And remember, he changed the nature of his business. He really no longer was doing commercial construction now. He was lending his name and he was partnering and he did a lot of limited partnerships and things of that sort. So i got to give him credit. It is that old saying, when you owe a Million Dollars, the bank owns you. When you owe a billion, you own the bank. Ive heard that. Lets be clear. A lot of private equity deals wouldnt even get done but for the tax breaks these days. Not saying i agree with them, but tax is everything. Absolutely. Tax system is written by the connected and the wealthy for the connected. Supply side ers. John f. Kennedy, ronald reagan. You got a book on that, dont you . Up next, more on the developing story on yahoo . The stock is now lower after reuters reported the Company Secretly built software allowing the u. S. Government to search user emails. The fallout when power lunch power lunch returns. Im scott wapner. Here is your cnbc news update for this hour. A federal judge ordering race car driver scott tucker and several Lending Companies he manages to pay nearly 1. 3 billion to the ftc. The court said tucker was involved in deceptive lending which left customers unaware of the true costs of their payday loans. Maria sharapova will be back in the game much sooner than expected. Her doping suspension was cut down to 15 months from the original two years. The fivetime grand slam champion tested positive for a banned substance at last years australian open. Ben stiller says he was treated for prostate cancer. In an interview with howard stern this morning the actor revealed he was diagnosed in 2014 when he was 48 years old. Stiller says he wanted to share his story to raise awareness about early testing. New Mexico Police releasing this video of a brazen smashandgrab. Thieves ram a pickup into a store front, load the atm off, and they take off. Thats the cnbc news update at this hour. Hey gary, at are you dog . Oh hey john,m connectingur brains so we can sharour amazing trading knowledge. But why dont you just go to thinkorswims chat rooms where you can share strategi, ideas, even actual trade wi mket professionals and thousands of other traders . I know. Ur brain told my brain before you told my face. Mmm, blueberry . Tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Early monday morning, reality tv star Kim Kardashian robbed at gunpoint in her paris hotel room. Actually an apartment. The thieves got away with a reported 10 million in jewels. Now there are two Big Questions surrounding it. How did the thieves know where she was staying, and how did they know she was traveling with so much jewelry. The first one is still being answered, but social media may have had to do with the second. Spokeswoman for the Police Department pointing the finger at posts like the one you are seeing on instagram saying, it was really the celebrity who was targeted with possessions that had been seen and noticed via social media. And it was these goods that the attackers targeted. Xwbig news on yahoo breaki in the past hour. Reuters reporting the Company Secretly built software allowing the government to search emails. Ceo of cloudstrike, ranked one of the Fastest Growing companies in the industry. George, thanks for being with us. Are you surprised a tech company is being asked by the u. S. Government to essentially dont want to say hack into accounts but hand the keys to the kingdom over . Yeah, im not surprised. Certainly it is up to that individual company. Weve seen a lot with apple and other companies that have decided no the to participate in certain ways. But there is lots of data there and im sure lots of folks within the government ranks to like to understand whats happening. Is there anything a consumer can do . Say i had a yahoo account. To make sure i am not scanned like that . It is difficult once the data is out. When you think about data breaches like yahoo changing passwords and making sure you dont have similar passwords across different websites are really important. Once the data is out it is difficult for a consumer to reel it back in. Yahoo admitted basically in 2013 that they were giving data to the government. In a Washington Post article, they said it was a limited number of users. When all this was coming out about snowden, we pretty much learned that some machine was reading theyre reading everything. Theyre typically looking for meta data. Define meta data. Looking for fingerprints that might allow them to determine a person or their activity is actually bad. Using algorithms basically to trace patterns and right. Looking for patterns and useages. Talk about yahoo s big data breach that surfaced. How damaging is it to yahoo s customers . How damaging is it to yahoo . Well, it is one of those areas where many of the larger companies, as you have seen in the past, have been breached. When we think about the threat vectors out there, whether china, russia, whether it is ecrime, all of these companies are us a sesusceptible to the s attack. It is a matter of working with customers and cleaning up security and going forward. One of the key challenges we see all the time with Large Companies is really being able to deal with these threats and being able to identify them so theyre not sitting there for 200plus days. Would you characterize us as at war with hackers and state sponsored hackers . And do we have to get to that point as the signal that we really take it seriously . I wouldnt use the term cyber war, but i certainly do think there is an escalation between what were doing, nation states, cyber criminals, and the activity thats out there. We need to think about this as really a serious, serious event that impacts the livelihood of this nation. When you are stealing intellectual property, you are reselling information, impacting lives and companies. I think thats something thats very important to the government. Can we presume that the u. S. Government and other governments that are friendly to the u. S. Government are engaging in Cyber Attacks as well as china and russia and north korea and iran are . Well, certainly you have to look at the history and intelligence facilitate it. All the countries you mentioned have great capabilities in gathering information. I think some of the differences between the u. S. And china in the past china today still continues to steal intellectual property and use it for gain as opposed to just for military purposes. What kind of information is the most valuable . Essentially hacking is all about obtaining information and selling it or using it in some way. So in terms of, you know, lets say a russian hacker will hack something, on the black market, what today is sort of the most valuable kind of information that can be sold . Well, might even be information that isnt gathered. If we think about things like ransom ware, it is incredibly valuable to that particular customer f you look at the value of the records that are stolen, might be 100. But the data encrypted family photos, documents. Exactly. Might be irreplaceable. Many times people will pay up for like a medical record which may be 100. Cybersecurity the main focus at our Cambridge Cyber summit. Heavy hitters from the nsa, Homeland Security and the fbi. They and more will be with us tomorrow. Meantime, coming up, one startup whose approach to the apparel business is a little more basic. Kate rogers is standing by with more. Kate in. Thats right, tyler. This company says theyre getting mens basics, socks, underwear and tshirts, a much needed upgrade after the break on power lunch. Welcome back to power lunch. Startups have gotten huge valuations disrupting Industries Like taxi service, hotel rooms. But today were looking at one entrepreneur who is looking to change the way we shop for basics. Mens basics. Kate rogers is here with the latest installment of make it. Kate . Thats right, tyler. The creators of mack weldon were tired of heading to the mall to dig through the many options out there for mens basics. They decided to do it their way with a twist. For brian berger, it started out with shopping for essentials. Underwear, tshirts and socks. There were no companies focusing on product and as guys we spend the majority of our lives in the things that we sell. It turns out a lot of other men felt the same way. In fact, 250,000 of them do. Thats how many users the startup that berger cofounded with Michael Isaacson called mac weldon now has. The company is adding 10,000 new customers a month. They have just sold their 1 millionth unit. You might be thinking in a sea of underwear and socks, what makes this Company Different . We have taken the best of high end workout gear and applied it to our everyday underwear. The line is antimicrobial meaning socks, underwear and tshirts wont stink at the end of the day. We had to put that one to the test. Im pretty certain this will not smell. Okay. It actually smells like it just came out of the laundry. Mack weldon raised 12 million in funding since 2012 and expanded into poll los, fleecesd more. Everything we sell is ever green, so we dont have to get into the business of sales or seasonal ty or trying to thread the needle on a fashion trend. We focus on the basics and doing all of those things a lot better. Now i have to say i did not expect the socks not to smell but they do smell like they just came out of the laundry. How much do these things cost . So theyre definitely a little higher. Competing with calvin kleins, michael kors. 30 for a pair of briefs . Theyre not going to stink at the end of the day. If thats worth it to you, if you have an issue like that, might be worth shelling out the money for. Putting it out there. All right. Very good. Didnt you say they had a twist on this . A twist on nickers, right . The the twist meaning, you know, theyre upgraded, silver weaved into some of them. Nickers with a twist. With a twist. There you go. Moving on, coming up, ante up. Bill gross is here with why he says the markets right now are no different or better than a las vegas casino. Were going to get into that and get away from the socks stench story when power lunch returns. Rise printers by hp. Which is great, uess youre a corporate spy. Unsecured printing makes your network vulnerabl enterprise printers by hpelp prevent costly Security Breaches thso im stuck spyingour nthe Old Fashioned way. Hey. Im not spying. Secure printing by hp. I. T. Orchestration by cdw. Anything worth pursuing hardork and plan. Ge, at baird, we aroach your wstrategy the same way to create a Financial Plan built to last from generation to generation. ll listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. Welcome back. We will see that first hour of power but raise you on the second. Bill gross is here on why the markets are no better than a vegas casino. Googles new gear, the tech giant unveiling a lot of stuff today including new smartphones, details about Virtual Reality and its answer to amazon. And bacon news. This hour, hog wild on the farm, as the second hour of power lunch begins right now. Im melissa lee. Lets get a check on the markets. Two hours until the closing bell, stocks losing steam a bit. Dow down triple digits, down 117 points. S p down by 13. Financials, the only sector now in the green. Were seeing the dividend yielding sectors, utilities, telecom, real estate the biggest laggards now. We have treasuries taking a hit. Gold is trading higher. This is a threemonth high low, excuse me, on gold. Much more on that straight ahead. All right, melissa. Tyler mathisen here. Thank you for joining us. Developing story. Were watching reuters reports that yahoo last year secretly built a custom Software Program to search all of its customers incoming emails at the behest of the u. S. Government. Yahoo responding by saying it is a law abiding company. The imf cutting the Global Growth forecast, expecting 3. 1 increase in Global Growth this year. The National Retail federation out with its u. S. Holiday Sales Forecast. It expects a 3. 6 increase over last year and thats better than last year. Melissa . Check out this incredible view from the International Space station as it passes over Hurricane Matthew last night. The storm slamming into haiti at this hour, winds of up to 145 Miles Per Hour and record rainfall. Kerry sanders is live in santiago, cuba, with the latest. Kerry . Reporter well, melissa, guys, were really waiting for matthew to make a hit in the area where i am. Im near santiago de cuba. This area knows what it is to get by a hurricane. They were slammed by Hurricane Sandy four years ago. More than 130,000 homes damaged in the area. 11 people died so theyre taking this very seriously. They already know, you can see behind me, as you look up in the mounta mountains, you see the rain coming down. We have a break right now. Were just a little bit of a drizzle if that. But they know they need to be prepared. So all day yesterday and portions of this morning they were preparing their homes from here, further east, out to batacoa. You see the efforts under way. The problem is they dont have a lumber star to go to where they can pick up what normally happens in the United States with sheets of plywood and two by fours to prepare homes. Theyre doing what they k putting handbags on the roofs of homes that have corrugated metal roofs. The winds, of course, right near the eye, 145 miles an hour. Those sandbags will do nothing. Even Tropical Storm force winds could take the roofs off. Guantanamo, the area at the university converted into an evacuation center. There are now more than 500 families that have come into the evacuation center. Many of them not only from along the coast, but, again, from up there in the mountains. The concern, of course, is that the villages up there that heavy rain will come, maybe up to 40 inches and there could be mudslides and that can be as dangerous as anything. Guys, right now, cuba is getting ready to get a major whack from Hurricane Matthew tonight and in through the evening. Kerry sanders stay safe, well hear from you soon, thank you. Breaking news on wells fargo. Lets get that with dom chu. We have senator david vitter of louisiana, republican senator, saying according to reuters, he says around 10,000 Small Business accounts were affected by the wells fargo contested sales practices. This according to people familiar with the matter. Senator vitter also goes on to say that the account scandal not limited to the Consumer Banking sector and thousands of Small Business owners were impacted by wells fargos practices and he says hes told this to ceo john stumpf of wells fargo in a letter, vitter demanding a full accounting, he says, of Small Business owners affected by fraudulent activity at wells fargo. And, this is important because senator david vitter is the chairman of the Senate Committee on Small Business and entrepreneurship. Another headline for wells fargo. We see wells fargo there, not really reacting to this, but down today as the entire sector is higher and wells fargo hitting another 52 week low. This is on top of a string of 52 week lows that the company has seen. This gets to the notion that we dont understand what the financial implications, the liabilities could be for wells fargo. Right, thats the case right now. Because we do not know what the full extent of the sales practices were, how many people were impacted and what kind of financial we dont know about the other side. There is 5300 employees trying to get class action status for their alleged termination for unfair sales practices and what not. So if we dont know what is happening with wells fargo overall, and this is happening right now, proves goes to show that wells fargo is still very much in the cross hairs of washington lawmakers and will continue for quite some time before we see any kind of resolution. Dom chu, thank you very much. Bill gross out with his october Investment Outlook, entitled doubling down. As you might expect from that title, it has an interesting comparison to casinos and gambling. Join us now is bill gross, a good poker player in his day, a blackjack analogy, because im sure you were blackjack, you know these kind of people and refer to them in your piece, which is lets say were playing a 5 hand and we lose. Next hand you play 10 because you think ill win it back. You lose, next hand after that, you play 20. You keep expecting that you will win and youre looking to win back all of your money. Eventually, though, you can run out of money. Why do you use that analogy in your Investment Outlook now . Well, brian, it seems it is similar to what Central Banks have been doing. Obviously at the beginning of qe, there was a smaller program and a Larger Program and the bank of japan jumped in and ecb jumped in and expanded programs not only in terms of size, but in terms of total amount and in terms of buying corporates and equities. It seems to me it is much like the same system in which Central Banks are gambling in a way that the credit creation that is being produced from these types of activities, you know, will go down to the real economy. And to be fair, to some extent it has, real economies are above the line for the most part, but not by very much and it seems like these types of monetary policies are losing their effectiveness. Maybe central bank back stops ultimately bad in the long run but can provide a prop to asset prices in the near term. As you said yourself, with that in mind, bill what do you think will happen with, say, Deutsche Bank and are you a buyer of Deutsche Bank in any way . Well, we havent participated buying or selling in terms of Deutsche Bank, but to some extent, you know, the recent headlines with Deutsche Bank are reflective of some continuing problems in terms of assets, the quality of assets, not just with Deutsche Bank but with european banks and to some extent global banks as well. Banks in china. So the problem of credit quality as a Global Economy levers and continues to lever, ie Central Banks increasing bets upon bets, places risk in Financial Markets despite the support that theyre providing at the moment. So we look at Deutsche Bank, you said youre not participating. Where do these policies generally, bill, where are they going to benefit . We might not like them, right . Might not be tasty like spinach, but theyre good for us perhaps in the shortterm. There has got to be some benefit to all this stuff for your investors in the near term, is there not . Well, there has been. You got me into a popeye metaphor. They have for the past five or six years, they have supported equity prices, doubled equity prices on a global basis for the most part and there has been a beneficial effect in terms of a trickle down, but there is a negative effect as well. Talked about that for a long time. The negative effect, there is an artificial ty to Financial Markets and theyre dependent on Central Banks increasing their bets and to the extent the bets dont increase, then perhaps the markets begin to sag and falter and the real economy, by the way, doesnt benefit at all because negative Interest Rates are certainly negative for some of the structural foundations of capitalism, which are Insurance Companies and banks and Pension Funds which are being hurt badly. You talked to us about build america bonds, you talked to us about sab miller, what looks good to bill gross . All right, sab miller got married today. And it worked. And so what looks good to me now, you know, i think linkedin and microsoft, microsoft the buyer, linkedin being bought, probably two months away. There is mild regulatory problems that in the eu, but i think for the most part if linkedin had 192. 5 and change, the Purchase Price at 196, is that a big deal . I talked about this before. Not very. But over two months it is probably 10 to 11 annualized return. Thats what the Janus Unconstrained Fund has been doing. Thats why it is doing well, thats why inflows are coming in, thats why im a happy camper today. Bill gross, arbitrager, a new title. Congrats. It did pay off for you and your clients. Bill gross, thank you very much. See you soon. All right, so the question is is bill right to be as concerned as he is . Lets talk more about the impact of the economy and the elections on the market with brian bellski, managing director and chief investment strategist with bmo Capital Markets. Let me turn the argument on its head, if i might. I can see where low Interest Rates hurt savers. I see where it put a lot of Pension Funds in a pickle. Havent low Interest Rates helped consumers in a big way to straighten out their Balance Sheets, improve their cash flow, to the extent that people are able to refinance at 3 , 3. 25 . They have done better. Yes, there is three legs to the stool, right . Corporate america, consumer and the government. Two out of three doing pretty well with respect to debt. We know Savings Rates and our country, america, are up because people become more cant make money on their savings. They can, but, tyler, their savings are up because theyre scared. A crisis of confidence. People are worried about their money, worried about a recession, worried about isis. I think at the end of the day, were in this malaise near term where this whole crisis in confidence continues to be quite high. Now, where mr. Gross is absolutely positively correct is that we have put too much confidence in Central Banks around the world. We have now reared an entire generation of investors that only buy stocks because of monetary policy. We have forgotten what i like to call the circle of life. A grown lion dies and is replaced by his son. And sing the song. We need get back to bare bones and fundamental investing again. So why have Central Banks persisted in doing what they have done . Because nobody else has done anything else. Thats right. It is a feedback loop. They all do the same thing and the economies dont seem to be responding, even though asset values do seem to be responding. Thats right. Another thing to think about, you think about oil prices, adjusted and rerated, you would have thought that Lower Energy Prices would make the consumer a little more bullish and theyre not. What we need to see is a combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. Dr. Kudlow talked about it in the prior segments on the show. Thats what you need to see. Were not seeing in unison together. Cheap money will not help melissa lee ceo of xyz company to go add capacity and add jobs, period. What i also know what to do in terms of investing when i hear all of that. It sounds almost like you dont want to be in any asset class if everything is pumped up by monetary policy. These are rallies that cannot be sustained and rallies built simply on easy money. So therefore why do you want to par take in this . This is a really troubling time near term for us as a longer term strategy. Ive been doing this 27 years. We upped our number to 2250 for the s p 500 because of the fed. The fed will continue to be dovish. If thats the case, then the portfolio manager, all they know, to buy stocks, because cheap money will bid the market higher. Are we robbing peter to pay paul with respect to concerns and being more concerned about that. Number two, if you look at where were positioned, were as neutral as ive ever been as a chief strategist. My overweights, only by 1 . Were really focusing more on tracking and stock picking within each sector. Making very specific bets with respect to the industries and stock i like within each one of the bottom line, should we up our cash position, sell a little stock. Here is a novel concept. On days like today, you need to be adding to your favorite positions. When the market rallies, you need to be peeling off. I firmly believe that Dividend Growth as an asset class is going to become ever important, and will help feed and fund some of these Pension Funds, longer term money of the fallacy of fixed income. We need to put money into the Dividend Fund growth. Brian, thank you. Thank you. Rick santelli in chicago at the cme. What are you focused on today, buddy . Im focused on you, mr. Brian. I want to ask you something. It is tight around my household. I was wondering if you could lend me 3,000 or 4,000 for the near term. If you said yes what am i wait, wait. 7 1 2 years, would you be happy about that . No. Just in the near term . No. I would not. But i like you and would lend you the money if you needed it. Saying the fed ill keep usinging the same analogy. You cant water a plant from a mile away with a fire hose without wasting a lot of water. Okay. Now lets get back to it. If you look at 826 start date to two year note yields, you can see, theyre at the highest level should they close around 82 than they have been at since then. Ten year, it is looking at one week, it is climbing and it is breaking out of a range. We want to monitor this as it moves closer to mid160s. Most charts look like 174, 175 test may be in order. Dollar index this is fascinating. We need to start with the intraday. Look at the intraday. Having a good day. Notice the high, 96, 44. You have to go back to july 28th to find a close at that level and i think thats where you want to be paying attention for what the moves are coming up. Dollar index thinks rates may really be going up a bit more. Back to you, tyler. Rick, thank you. Move over apple, google unveiling the next generation of gadgets. Stock underperforming its big rivals. Is that about to change . Hog wild, what the pig glut is doing to meet prices and your wallet. Power is back in two. Welcome back to power lunch. Apple had its day. It is googles turn. The tech giant holding a big event unveiling its next hot gadgets and ideas. Josh lippen to is in San Francisco with the details. Hi, josh. Google just making a much harder push into hardware here. So lets start with the star of the show, that would be this new phone, just unveiled this morning. It is called pixel. And these are the first phones built by google. Inside and out. Among the features, they ship with Google Assistant built in. Thats googles answer to apples siri. Amazons alexa. And microsofts cortana. Google says the phones allow for what it is calling terrific photography. The devices rely on google cloud. The cost 649 bucks. And preorders start today. You can buy those phones from google, retailers like best buy and through verizon. The premium end of the Smartphone Market is under pressure. Shipments did fall about 15 last year according to idc. But google feels like it can buck that trend. The new phones also take advantage of google day dream, that is the companys new vr platform. That could be a real potential growth area for google. It certainly is a way to differentiate its hardware from rivals like apple. Googles bet is that the future of vr is mobile vr. So google also today unveiling a new vr headset that will work with these new phones called day dream view, which will cost 79 bucks. And finally, google said today that preorders for google home start today, thats the companys answer to amazons tt of positive reviews. Search and maps, and it is going to sell for 129 bucks. That does undercut the echo, which retails for 180. Bottom line, google unveiled a lot of hardware, hoping youre going to use at work, at home, in your living rooms. Google hasnt hit home runs when it comes to hardware. We think of google glass. But theyre hoping consumers will be excited about all the new gadgets he unveiled this morning. Back to you. Josh, quick question. If i were interested in buying one of these Google Hardware products, where could i go to see it . Can i . Or do i just order it online and hope that it is great. My understanding, you order it online. You order it at google, get it through verizon. Check it out, certain retailers, they mention best buy among them. Josh, thank you. Lets bring in ed lee and robert luna. Guys, great to have you with us. Ed, your reaction. Phone space is an interesting one. The vr thing is interesting, but it almost feels like it is a little bit too ahead of the curve. Are there in consumers who say ill go with a google phone. It has the vr thing, which i never experienced, but i want to be able to. Youre right about that. The phone itself is a nice play for them, frankly. Looks really nice, looks cool. It doesnt move the needle. There is a small opening, though, in the sense that if youre looking for an am alternative, this might be one, especially now that samsung phones you know, might blow up on you. I think there was something fortuitous about that as an aspect. I think the real killer isnt the phone, it is the home device. Thats the thing that might lure you into buying Google Hardware. You tie everything together, the chrome cast for the tv and Everything Else and that may be part of the reason why you think maybe the google phone is something you want to get, but the phone by itself, i dont think necessarily would attract necessarily an apple consumer but someone looking for an apple alternative. When you think about googles home versus alexa, the reason to have one is because youre in this sort of ecosystem, you can tell the echo, hey, i need to buy paper towels. Play this song, find this show. And it will do all of that and for google, it may not be as seamless. I have to agree. One of the big challenges is amazon has been in the space for two years now. It is interesting were talking about amazon being the competitor versus someone like apple today. I dont think thats by mistake. Ten years ago they created aws and this cloud space theyre dominating now. And when you look at the skill sets, there is over 10,000 developers now. Look at Companies Like ge, just recently announced their oven will be communicating with alexa. If youre someone who is producing things out there, internet of things per se, this is an ecosystem you want to be tied into. Two years may be a little late now. Ed, do you think google, a great company, revolutionized search, do they have apple envy. Their wifi router looks like the Apple Airport extreme or the extreme. They got their google home. Theyre getting into the things where when you look at the google store online, starting to look and feel a lot like apple. Big, big apple envy. I do sort of credit the ceo of google for what looked like a pretty impressive lineup here. I dont mean just in terms of the hardware. We havent felt and touched it enough. But there is a Clear Strategy at play. Clear tying in all the products together, as opposed to sort of what they attempted in the past which is it felt really much like engineers putting something together, without thinking about the user per se. I do think the big play beyond making hardware is owning Artificial Intelligence, which is what you talked about amazon echo system. Thats their real killer app, the ai interface. Google has a chance to unseat them because they have got the knowledge graph, decades of people searching in, their search window and they have been able to figure out what people are looking for and how to parse language. And i think that could sort of help them. Thats the next iteration of computing is ai as opposed to desktop and mobile. As an investor, is Artificial Intelligence a call option at this point . It is not a reason to buy the stock today. It could pay off in the future. I dont think so. I think Artificial Intelligence is real. I think a lot of what we have been talking about maybe five or six years ago seemed like something from star trek. These are things happening today. Predictive an lanalytics, these devices are helping you make decisions on things that you may have never thought you needed before. I think it is real. Well leave it there. Hey, guys, can i give a quick anecdote. I dont know if ed wants to comment on this. Flying yesterday, back from detroit, please turn all your phones into airplane mode. But the captain true. The captain recommends if you have a galaxy note 7, please turn your phone completely off and do not attempt to charge the phone while in flight. Talk about a negative ad for samsung. Ive been hearing on flights as well. I wonder if that will benefit google. If people look for a new phone, say, guess what, i liked the android, but ill go with google not samsung. Thank you. Ed lee and robert luna. Triple digit losses now for the dow. We got the latest on what is driving the slide when power lunch returns. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises government and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Iveot a nice long life ahead. On what matters to you. Big ans. So when i found out mecare doesntay all medical expense ien i got a medicare. Supplement insurance plan. [ male annncer ] if youre eligle for micare, yomay know it only covers about 80 of your r rt b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement iurance pla insured by unitedhealthce insurance compy. Like all standard medicare suppment insurance pns, it helps pick up se of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Inow i know ill be able to stick with m. Rs. 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So i know how important that is. Im scott wapner. Here is your cnbc news update. A massive factory fire raging right now in baltimore. Officials say the blaze broke out around 1 00 p. M. And is coming from a building on annapolis road. There is the pictures there. No word on what caused it or if there are any injuries. Johnson johnson warning customers one of the insulin pumps may be vulnerable to hacking. While working with a security expert, the Company Learned a hacker within five feet of the device could force that pump to deliver unwarranted insulin. Johnson johnson sent a letter to patients notifying them. The top humanitarian official warning russia against using continued force in the syrian city of aleppo. Russia has been providing military support to the Syrian Government who has been carrying out bombings in that rebel held city. Auto regulators launching an investigation into certain ford f150 models over braking concerns after owners complained of losing the ability to stop. The probe covers 282,000 trucks made in 2015, 2016. Thats the cnbc nbusiness news update. Back to you. A small cap call of the day. This stock has been battered this year, but some on the street say it could rally more than 15 from here. Well name names when power lunch returns. Rees software, used by this bank, to protect this custer, who lives here and flies toong kong, to visit this company thatak smart phones, used by this vice esident, this little kid, oops, a, who works across the street from this man, o createsoware. They all he insurance crafd personally for them. Not just coverage, craftsmanship. Not just insured. Chubinsured. Yeah. Well, we gotta hand of thto fedex. Gls. And now were getting all kinds ofew customers. Easy, i know. Can you believe were geg orders from cada, ireland. This ones goingo new zealand. New zealand . Psst. Hey you gs are gonna scare awayhe dr m. Idiots. Providing Global Access for Small Business. Fedex. Bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Look at Interest Rate sensitive stocks. Bank stocks moving to the upside today. Yield curve moving up a little bit. Treasury yields, ten year moving on the upside throughout the last faw dayew days. Thats helping stocks. Look at utilities, reits and telecom, utilities at the lowest level since april now. This trend has been down for a number of days. So is telecom and so is real estate. We have a dollar trend moving up as well today. Thats putting pressure on gold miners having a tough day. Down 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 . There is some reports out of the that the ecb may be considering tapering the program ahead of qe. I think thats putting a little pressure on the dollar and Interest Rates as well. Back to you. Bob, thank you. A few hours to go until the Vice President ial debate. Chief washington correspondent john harwood has the latest now on that. And the latest poll numbers. Hi, john. You know, the you have a top of the ticket like donald trump and Hillary Clinton, you dont get a lot of attention on the Vice President ial nominees tim kaine and mike pence. But theyre going to try tonight. They had 90 minutes here at longwood university. Republicans signaled they want to go after tim kaine on his record as a criminal defense lawyer, opponent of the death penalty. Democrats have signaled through advertising and videos that theyre going to go after mike pence for opposing abortion, for also limiting gay rights as governor of indiana. But ultimately were in a Holding Action until we get to the second president ial debate, which is going to be this weekend on sunday night in st. Louis. Clintons objectives in that debate are going to be first of all hold the gains shes made among College Educated whites, especially women, she needs to motivate young voters, africanamericans, hispanics, to turn out. She has their support, but needs them to turn out. She also needs to convey a positive economic agenda. As for donald trump, who has been struggling of late, he has got to display a president ial demeanor. He has difficulty doing that from time to time. Hes got to avoid unproductive, counterproductive fights. People like alicia machado, the former miss universe, and he also has to figure out a way to tell voters that he is somebody they can trust with the presidency, and neutralize the issues about taxes, which have come out through the New York Times. Where does the race stand right now . Hillary clinton has got a lead, look at our survey monkey poll, just out yesterday, shes got a 6point lead over donald trump with gary johnson at 10, jill stein at 3. And when you look at the battleground states and the averages on real clear politics, 14 battleground states, Hillary Clinton has got leads in 11 of them. Donald trump in only 3. If the election were held today, by those averages, she would have 322 electoral votes, more than enough to win. Donald trump is behind, has to make up ground, maybe mike pence can help them a little bit tonight. Well see. Off the top of your head, which three mr. Trump leads in. I assume ohio is one still. He leads in ohio. He leads in arizona. Those are not must win states for Hillary Clinton. She leads on the other hand in florida, which is a must win state for donald trump. She also leads in north carolina. Big lead in virginia. This state where were having this debate also in colorado. So the onus is on donald trump to expand his base to move past that 40 threshold and get enough to win. John, thank you very much. Lets bring in cnbc contributor sarah fagan. Former white house political director under president george w. Bush. Good to see you. I watched you on sunday, by the way. Nice to see you on that day as well. You say that mr. Trump really needs to win florida to have a legitimate shot here. Explain. He needs to win florida. He needs to win ohio. And he needs to win pennsylvania. The easiest way to think about this is to consider that mitt romney got 206 electoral votes including north carolina. So donald trump has to do as well as mitt romney, win florida, win pennsylvania, and win ohio which he may be ahead in according to some of these polls. There are lots of ways. Ive done my electoral map. There are ways this could end up in a tie, a dead heat. There an electoral vote in maine that could end in a brokered map. The other one that some analysts are focusing on is gary johnson, who hasnt broken out in this race, only at 10 , but he was the governor of new mexico which in previous president ial elections has been a target state. Hes popular there. Hes well over 20 . If he were to do even better, and win new mexico, take those electoral votes away from the two major party candidates, there is a scenario where the map could be deadlocked ed as. Can we call it pomp and circumstance. Of those four states, which one is the most important . Secondly, why do you believe that mr. Trump is gaining in ohio but losing in pennsylvania . Is it more of a distinction between the eastern pennsylvania and western pennsylvania because the pittsburgh area, heavy steel, coal, et cetera, tends to look like ohio from a voting perspective. First of all, to answer the first question, theyre almost wins. On a good day with a perfect candidate who makes no errors, the Electoral College map is difficult for republicans. Donald trump has lite of challenges. You look at the target states, Hillary Clinton has many options in which to win. Donald trump does not have many options. He has to win every state romney has done, which includes north carolina, hes been behind in in many polls. Then he has to figure out how to get from 206 votes to 270. The cleanest way to do that is to win florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. He can win florida and ohio, both must wins, and there are scenarios where you can string together virginia, colorado, nevada, iowa, few other places and get there. But just seems very unlikely. And pennsylvania has been difficult for republicans. Very difficult. I cant remember the last election in pennsylvania that went republican. May have been 2004 but im not sure. It was 1988. You got it, thanks. Sarah fagan. It is the Small Cap Stock call of the day. An analyst says it has 15 more upside ahead. That and three other big calls in our street talk segment coming up. Opportunities ent alwaysbvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can he you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach obal markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back. Time for street talk. Wells fargo, Raymond James downgrading to an underperform from market perform cutting estimates. Wells fargo has underperformed its peers since news of the fake account scandal broke. The Analyst Thinks that will continue. Several additional investigations, lawsuits and fines have been announced. Businesses have the Financial Impact is hard to predict now. Wonder if somebody will go to open a Checking Account or take out a mortgage if theyll say, lets not do wells fargo. Thats the ultimate risk. Stock two, cbs, the tv network. Big call from ubs. They upgraded to a buy from a sell. Double jump. The analyst says the viacom deal risk fully priced in, fundamentals are getting better. He highlights solid ratings for cbs and strong ad market to start the fall season, 66 target, about 17 offside. Bold considering cbs would be tying itself to a company with a lot of sort of lagging cable properties. This is the better of the two after that split. Third stock here, janus, this is the day after they announced being bought by henderson. It will diversify products and cut costs. They want clarity on how the firms will save money. Questions the coceos and concerns about potential regulatory risks. I wish citigroup would have watched yesterday who said, basically, didnt give names, said there will be personnel overlap between london and denver. So cost cutting through. Not a lot. There will be some redundancies or whatever the word might be. Finally, small cap call of the day, the one we referenced, fotronnics. Sun trust raising the price target to 12 from 11. 16 upside. You need to buy the stock for the bigger, clearer upside opportunities. They see several catalysts including potential industry consolidation and the stock is trading at a slight discount. Nice. Have you heard of it. I have. I havent thought about it in a long time, to be honest. Now were thinking about it. Thats why we do street talk to make you think about the things you havent thought about in a long time. Milli vanilli. Another one. Time for trading nation, where traders trade better together. Lets look at gold. Wow. If you own gold and just waking up for some reason, turn off the tv. Gold is down 41 an ounce right now. Rich ross, gina sanchez. Gold fearful of higher Interest Rates perhaps. Maybe not to the tune of 40 an ounce. We thinkest Something Else is afoot here. What is your take on gold . I think what is driving this today is more of the dollar. The dollar has been strengthening on the back of news out of europe for a potential tapering there. And obviously the dollar expectations for the Interest Rates and what happens in the Global Economy all weigh on gold. We have seen a very slow and steady recovery in the economy. Again, very slow, but still thats not good for gold in the long run. And so were probably seeing a lot of the enthusiasm over the dovishness of the fed that got baked in over the last month. Simply coming out of the market. You know, rich ross, look at the chart here, a wrench into it, but does it make you think this is a great deal to buy now, a 40 discount or, b, wow, it makes a bad chart look even worse . Im going to go with choice b there. There is three things that scare gold. Two of them are present. Higher Interest Rates and stronger dollar, but this is a top that has been forming for the past few weeks. You bring up the shortterm chart, you see what i mean. You can see that descending triangle formation up top. The height of that pattern, about 75. Lets call it 1375. 1300. Today, the decisive break below the neckline of that pattern. I think it projects measured downside to around 1225. We should break below that 200 Day Moving Average which held around 1358, 1360. If you zoom out more importantly, i love the weekly chart of gold. I love it in the sense it gets you back to 1204, 1200. Look at how that defined the trend, providing support, gave you the sell signal on the break in 2012 and then resistance in late 2014, 2015 on the failure. I think we pull back there. That magnetic quality of that 100 week proves true here and we get a pullback to 1200, 1204 on gold. I would be a seller of gold and miners. Bullish call or bearish call on gold from rich ross. Better get down with the beans and the bunker. You talk negative on gold, people pop out of the social media machine. Very negative call on gold. Rich and gina, thank you, both, very much. 41 loss for gold today. For more trading nation,today. For more trading nation get out of your bunker and go to our website. Taco tuesday. Happens to be National Taco day. Where to find the best deals plus going hog wild. A pig glut having a big impact on meat prices. What it means for your grocery bill when power lunch returns in two minutes. It is National Taco day, america. Yum. Where are the best deals . Chipotle is using chorizo in its tacos. Taco bell offering reading cards. And qdoba is holding a taco playlist. I would like to add putting on the ritz because it was song by the singer known as taco. From taco to pork and some bacon news. Morgan brennan with the latest details on bacon. Reporter well call this bacon glut. 78. 8 million hogs. That is a record for this time of year. Its poised to get bigger as well with production peeking this quarter and 2016 on track to be the biggest year ever for pig production. So big some farm earns traders are telling me they expect packing capacity to be overwhelmed by the flood of supply in coming weeks. Thats sending prices plunging. Current lean hog futures trading at a seven year low right now. After plunging 47 last quarter alone. So how did this happen . We got several years of bunker crops meant cheaper feed. Farmers can raise more pigs for less money. Demand is waning as well. After doubling its u. S. Pork imports china which is the biggest market thats slowed its buying and mexico which claims 40 of u. S. Hamas a weaker peso against the dollar which is also dented demand. Factor in a broader protein glut, cattle and poultry stocks soaring and consumers have their choice of meat and at lower and lower prices. Eggs as well. David maloney chief commodity strategist at American Restaurant Association noted some of this is seasonal. Hog prices bottom in late fall, early winter but expects to see prices staying weak into 2017. Morgan brennan our chief bacon correspondent. Thank you. Stocks near their session loss. Check please is next. Second wr. Beuse, healter doesnt haen all by itself. Uand beliing a single life can bmade better by millions of others. As a Health Services and Innovation Company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. So while the world keeps searching for healthier were here to make healthier happ. Oh hey john, im connecting our brain so we can are our amazing trading knowledge. Oh heythats a great idea, connecting our brain but why dont you st go thinks whe you can share strategies, eas, even actual trades with market professionals d thousands of other trade . I kn. Your braind my brain before you told my face. Tap into the knowledge of other adereron thinkorswim. Only atd ameritrade. Ats critical thinng like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . . cheers whatst worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of catal is, not just wealth, but things that matter. Moan stanley whoa. Whats going on here . Oh hey allison. Im val, the orange money retirement squirrel from va. Oh hey allison. Val from va . Yeah, val from voya. Quick question, at are voya retireme squirrels doing in my house . Were putting away acorns. You knowto show the imance saving for the future. So youre sort of like a no, im more like metaphor. Okay, a spesmetaphor. No, i. Youre a spokesmephor. Yeah. Ok. Sehow voya can help you get organized atoycom. Check please. Theres a lot to watch in the markets right now. Stocks are just off the session low. Youre sealing a sell off in equities and gold and bonds. Take a look at darden. It started off the day really strong after posting its eighth consecutive quarter of positive Comp Store Sales but has faded and this represents or symbolizes the reluctance people have when it comes to casual dining space. Food costs are very low. Its cheap to eat at home and thats hurting all these restaurant stocks. This rutter story about yahoo complying with a directive to scan millions much email accounts will be a huge story because it brings back that question in the apple case from the San Bernardino killings of what is the role of the Technology Company visavis their customers, National Security. Well talk about that and more at the cyber summit tomorrow. Everybody nearly poopooing about the Deutsche Bank statement is 5 billion. If it turns out to be correct and Deutsche Bank stock is up another 2 today one of the greatest exclusives of the year for that wire service. Biggest short squeeze higher. Thanks for watching power lunch. Closing bell begins right now. A good short squeeze, dont you think . Welcome to the close bell. Im Michelle Carusocabrera in for kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. Im bill griffeth. Stocks under a little bit of pressure today as the dollar rallies. Dollar moving on gold as well. First on the dollar against the british pound. You see 1. 27. Not since 1985 have we seen the dollar that strong against the british pound. Gold on track to have its worst day since 2013. We have more on what it all means for the Broader Market coming up. We have