It is officially official, as you said, donald trump after a day of leaks yesterday now tweeting out the news that he has picked indiana governor mike pence as his running mate and potential Vice President of the United States of america if trump should win. Heres the tweet just a little while ago donald trump put out. I am pleased to announce that i have chosen governor mike pence as my Vice President ial running mate. News Conference Tomorrow at 11 00 a. M. That News Conference was initially scheduled for today. The trump folks have postponed it in the wake of the terrorist attack in france. But meanwhile, maybe not such good news on the polling front for the trump candidacy. Look at these battleground polls now in key states. Clinton versus trump headtohead matchups in colorado, 43 clinton, 35 trump. In florida, 44 clinton, 37 trump. North carolina, 44 again for clinton, 38 for trump. And in virginia, a state that once was reliablely republican, thats 44 clinton, trump 35 there. So, guys, donald trump and mike pence will have a lot of work to do when they get out on the campaign trail together. But were expecting that official announcement now coming tomorrow. The news beginning to leak out yesterday and now officially confirmed today, guys. Eamon, thank you very much. Lets bring in tim alberta, chief correspondent for the national review. Welcome. How does mr. Pence help, and where . Well, listen, i think before donald trump can try to attract, you know, reagan democrats as hes talked about, crossover voters and win some of these independents in key battleground states, hes got to shore up with the republican base. Mike pence can help there. He has a very strong reputation in the evangelical Community Despite backing away last year from this controversial religious freedom bill in indiana. He spent the last couple decades in the conservative movement. Thats his world. Thats his universe. He knows the players, has a solid reputation there. Solid reputation on capitol hill. Some of the most prominent conservatives in congress consider mike pence to be one of the god fathers of like the modern Tea Party Movement in congress. So this is a guy who has, you know, definitely strong conservative bona fides, i just dont know that he is the guy who can suddenly help trump kind of transform the image of his campaign or sort of right the ship. I dont know that hes that good. I think hes popular with the base, but i dont know if thats going to be enough. Does the ship need righting . I think it certainly does. The polling you just heard. We have seen a pretty consistent trend in the polls over the last three or four weeks where donald trump forget margins and how much Hillary Clinton is up on donald trump. Look at baseline numbers for trump. Hes under 40 in every one of those battleground state polls you just mentioned. If you are under 40 heading into a national convention, you are in very, very bad shape. So i think the ship definitely needs to be righted. The antitrump movement died with a whimper in the rules committee. Was it overhyped from the beginning . What are the chances that they make any kind of stink on the floor . You could have a few bad apples who try to press their case on the floor, but there is no chance of anything happening. There was never any chance of anything happening. This is this was one of the most overblown and misreported story lines of the entire 2016 campaign. Donald trumps nomination was never in jeopardy. There were a handful of people in the rules committee here at the conventionin cleveland who were plotting to try to pass an amendment or get a minority report on an amendment that would allow for a vote on the Convention Floor that would allow delegates essentially to vote their conscience, vote whoever they want regardless of the state results in their primary caucus. But they never had the numbers. They were never close to having the numbers. There was a lot of media spin and a lot of buzz in the last couple of weeks that was just totally detached from reality. I dont want to pour numbers or pour water on the numbers, tim, but you and i know history and polling has shown one thing, that history and polling has meant nothing in this election cycle. Nobody gave him a chance, now hes going to be the nominee. I see the couple percentage difference points here. How much faith are you putting in those polls . I dont put much faith in the polls, what i put faith in is the demographic trends that are clear and. Look at the cross tabs over a period of three or four months and look at Donald Trumps performance with suburban women, White College educated women, hispanics, blacks, the numbers there are so bad. He is so far under water with these key groups that the math just doesnt add up. Theres just no way to carry 270 electoral votes if you cant win states like virginia, north carolina, colorado, states that have emerging hispanic populations, states that have huge suburban populations with working class whites excuse me, College Educated whites, thats not going to be trumps demographic strong suit in this election. Quick final question, is the party ready for its party . Is cleveland ready . They seem ready here. Things are pretty orderly. The rules committee and Platform Committee this week went off without a hitch. So the rnc i think has done its job up until this point. I do think its going to get a little chaotic here next week. Theres a lot of people coming in to protest. Fears of violence. Do you think its justified theres a fear of violence . You know, i personally dont live my life scared, but talking to people the last 48 hours, yeah, the anxieties are there. And i think theyre going to be heightened even more next week, especially with the clarification from the cleveland mayor this week that there are going to be guns allowed by open carry laws here in the state. So people who have a license to open carry will be able to have a gun with them downtown. And i think a lot of people are very, very nervous about that. That could make it interesting. Tim alberta with the national review. Thanks so much. Thank you. Be sure to catch power lunch all next week. Ill be live from the rnc in cleveland. Brian mplgt by the way, the rit count numbers are out. Its friday, i know youve been waiting all week for it, tyler, another jump in oil rigs. I saw the rig count jump the third week in a row that we are seeing a jump, oil rigs rose by six according to baker hughes. Third weekly straight increase two weeks ago the biggest jump wed seen in a while. As prices tick back up, activity for drilling has ticked back up, thus prices may tick back down. Lets get more on the horrific attack in nice, france. Cnbcs hadley gamble is live for us. Hadley. Reporter french prosecutors now say that they did not know the suspect, 31yearold mohamed bouhlel, he wasnt known to national or local Intelligence Services or was he on a terror watch list yesterday evening when he plowed into a crowd of thousands right here on the promenade killing 84 people. Dozens of them children. And injuring over 200. Earlier today Francois Hollande said he was going to deal with it and he said they were going to take on terror. Take a listen. Translator nothing will shake us and make us renounce the fight against terrorism. In fact, we are going to strengthen our action in syria and in iraq. And we will continue to hit those who are attacking us on our own territory. And will hit us in their own locations. Reporter over the last 24 hours of course dozens of reports surfacing that the French National of tunisian decend descent. Neighbors described him as strange, but nothing like this. Promenade filled with hundreds of onlookers. The mood is very somber. The big question for french authorities, was he working alone. They havent come up with an answer to that question yet, michelle. And the other big question is what more can they do . Over the last several months and during the euro cup in particular they had over 90,000 security personnel on the streets of this country to keep them safe. Unfortunately, as weve seen, they just cant take care of everything. The prosecutors earlier today saying this wasnt the fault of the security services. They were doing everything that they could do, michelle. You really this is tyler, hadley. You just answered my question, i believe. And that is are they being very tight lipped about what they may or may not know about this individuals contacts . In other words, you said they dont know whether he was a lone wolf or not, do you think they really dont know . Reporter well, i think at this point the speculation is rife. But whats interesting to note is Francois Hollande in his speech earlier today linked this immediately to terror and talked about going stronger in terms of air strikes in iraq and syria. For him to immediately link this to terror it really does tell you something about the mood here in france. All right. Hadley, thanks very much. Reporting live from nice. To the markets now, we are keeping a close eye on the s p 500. If it finishes the day in the green it will close at record high every day this week, and that is something it has not done since march of 1998. Were just off session highs after hitting yet another record high today. Lets get right to bob pisani who is at the new york stock exchange. Bob, whats most striking so far in this session is reversal in banks that weve seen. Yeah. And the dollar and i think rates are having a little bit of an issue with the markets. Lets take a look whats going on today. We got a lot of economic news, and i think that is moving the markets here. We had a spike in the dollar as well as spike in the rates. Were at historic highs at the open at the s p 500. Better than expected Industrial Production. Ipos also trading up. Stocks at new highs, better economic news, better ipos, as melissa mentioned banks off their highs. They did start in positive territory. All the major banks have beat on their earnings so far in this quarter. But you see here them off their sitting at the lows for the day essentially. Heres the earnings trends were seeing for the Second Quarter banks right now. Net interest, soft. Credits improving. Loan growth is doing a little better. Guidance has been steady. Nobodys lowering numbers in the banks. Thats one of the reasons i think theyve been holding up throughout the week. I want to mention that ipo today. Another good ipo following online yesterday advance pierre food holdings, big Food Processing company priced at 21, opened 23. 50, essentially trading right there. Thats the second one that weve had the ipo market is starting to open up. Take a look at the recent prices of these ipos from their initial prices. Twilio up 178 , acacia and batts all starting to look good. Bob, thank you very much. News alert now on tom brady. Courtney reagan has the details. Court. Hi there, tyler. So tom brady is giving up fighting the nfl on his fourgame suspension related to defla deflategate, in a message posted to his facebook page, the new england patriot quarterback says in part its been a challenging 18 months ive made the decision to no longer proceed with the legal process. Im going to work hard to be the best player i can for the new England Patriots. Brian, back to you. Courtney, thank you very much. Meantime, shares of herbalife are soaring right now. Todays gains pushing the stock up 25 this year. The company settling with regulators. But was todays sentiment really high . Good news for the company, many Unanswered Questions which Herb Greenberg will try to answer next. Romantic moments can happen spontaneously, so why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. Many men arent aware their Health Insurance may cover cialis. Contact your health plan for the latest information. Shares of herbalife soaring after the company settled with the ftc. Herbalife up now 11 . Bulls heralding the settlement as a big win. Was it really . Kate kelly is here with more. Theres a lot more to the story than a simple headline the ftc did not label life a pyramid scheme. Thats right, brian. Its a long story and ill try to explain the good and bad part for various parties. Puts to rest a nearly fouryear long battle. Telling us clearly ackman lost out today big time. Whether that will ultimately prove to be the case down the road is far from clear. To start with the ftc avoided two key things, shutting the company down altogether or calling it a pyramid scheme. Something ackman has long alleged to be the case. But listen to chairwoman edith ramirezs comments as she strongly implies the worst without saying it. Voiced by these and other testimonies was an illusion. The vast majority of herbalife distributors found they could make little or no money selling herbalife products. Our focus isnt on the label. Our focus again was on articulating allegations in our complaint that we believe reach the core issue and the core problem with what we considered to be unlawful practices that herbalife has engaged in. If the company wasnt running a legitimate business, ie, one depending on selling Real Products to real people, that might make it hard or even impossible to build a legitimate business over a shorter period of time, weakening or even eliminating its earnings potential and slashing its stock price. And that of course would help ackmans short position. Still, the ftcs reach is limited and 80 of herbalifes business is conducted outside the u. S. , presumably meaning it can carry on as usual in key Growth Markets overseas. So, what does this mean for ackman . After a horrible year of setbacks with Valeant Pharmaceuticals and a current performance of 19 yeartodate in pershing square, i want to say he just issued a statement within the last few minutes and essentially congratulates the ftc for enforcing the law. Hes going to work with overseas regulators to help them to the extent they might be looking at herbalife. But he also says, while it appears that herbalife negotiated away the words pyramid scheme from the settlement agreement, the ftcs findings are clear. So thats kind of this nonspeak that i was referring to. Tyler said something earlier that i thought was telling. Nail in the head. Just like comey the other day. These are all the bad things that Hillary Clinton did, but were not going to indict her. And nobody should. These are all the things we think they did wrong, but were not going to prosecute. Do you think its political, because i dont . No, i just think theres an irony in that. And a message. And a message. I think theres an irony, the reason i say its not political, who knows, im speculating, but i think theres a precedent. Josh brown touched on this in Halftime Report as well, the government in recent years not wanting to shut down Companies Even if they think that there is some real misconduct issue. I mean, Arthur Anderson of course being the chilling example from past periods in the financial markets. But the ftc shut down a company for being a pyramid scheme in september of 2015. Its not like they havent done it recently. Of a certain size were not going to do it. I think that is one case to be made here. I dont know what their motivation was. Heres the price it pays, too big to nail, really. Interesting. They are so large. I mean, ackmans point in his statement that under other similar cases, whose names dont really matter, other key pyramid scheme cases, the above findings, those things that the ftc said, constitute a pyramid scheme. So hes basically saying, i won, but theyre just not using the word. It is a little hard to square when you look at the complaint that was filed and of course now settled by the ftc. And you look at the language both in the press release as well as some of the ramirez comments, it does seem they found some very objectionable business conduct at the company. Right. Yet they dont go the extra mile. Anybody with children knows that if they behave badly, you say send them to timeout. Dont do that again, fix your behavior and give them another chance before you send them to the orphanage. And bill ackmans logic is that this other chance that the ftc is giving them will ultimately lead to the businesss collapse because the distributors dont make money on retail sales. Lets keep this going. Bring in a guy that knows a little about the topic, which is Herb Greenberg, partner of Pacific Crest research. He joins us by phone. You know, herb, again, followup on this. When i hear sabt some of the changes to the Business Model like tylers referring to the way they record sales, et cetera, you wonder how positive this news really is and maybe todays a massive short squeeze. Its unclear why the stock is doing what its doing. I think whats important here in my view this is now a company within the u. S. A broken Business Model. Its very clear its a broken Business Model. They can spin it any way they want, but theyre going through major changes and paying a very big fine. We wont know how broken it is, certainly from the u. S. Pe perspecti perspective, until quarters from now, quarters from now, and we see the results and see how its effected their bottom line. Thats really what its all about. Do you think youve been writing about this for a long time. Do you think when you hear about this chain specifically the way they record sales, which is something kate just talked about bill ackman highlighting, that we may see some very different earnings statements . Or do you think because 80 is international that not much will change on the Balance Sheet or the income statement . Well, whatever the 20 , theres a change of the 20 , so you cant just sniff at that. Thats real. There will be a change there. And the rest really depends on what other countries how other countries intend to see this. Obviously if the words pyramid scheme were used, that would have a more immediate profound effect internationally. But i have to tell you, and kate can attest to this, Elizabeth Ramirez seemed to be squirming when she was asked about this and she finally said, you cannot say that its not a pyramid scheme. She made that very clear. She just said interpreted basically, you know, any way you wish. So they theyre making changes. Theyve been making changes. And you have to ask yourself why have they been making changes . She also said herbalife is going to have to start operating legitimately, which suggests it has not been. I dont think you can draw im sorry, go ahead. He stopped short of saying that. No, she said that, just didnt call it a pyramid scheme. She said herbalife is going to have to start operating legitimately. Under the terms of this settlement, herb, can it . It certainly can. It just depends on how its going to effect its business, its bottom line. By the way, i know were talking about herbalife, but there are a lot of these privately Held Companies in the United States and elsewhere, this will have a profound effect on them. Can it start operating legitimately . Sure, but theres one thing i want to point out. No one knows what carl icahns going to do, but in his press release he did Say Something fascinating. He brought up the concept of rollup. And i will say if they start taking this thing and rolling up other businesses and going in other directions, they can paper over the impact, whatever that impact may be. Herb, let me throw something out there and im curious what you think too. Ive sort of articulated the bear case or the case in which ackman almost has a victory today, but doesnt. Heres the bull case and ive been talking to a lot of hedge fund managers, this is a significant overhang eliminated and that could account alone for this double digit upswing today. You also know that carl icahn has the ability to buy an additional 10 of the shares. We dont know exactly what the timeframe of that will be or if it will happen. Management taking a profit, a sale of the company. These very well may be as bad as it gets for herbalife, this may be as bad as it gets in terms of the negative overhang and people are going to make their decision on the stock now and sort of walk away. What do you think about that, herb . I say game on. Because anything is possible. Until again, if they do some move and somebody really wanted to get in and take this thing private or do Something Like that, god bless them. They can do that. The question is how will the business they buy be down the road. And thats what no one knows. Thats something someones going to have to crunch. Told us yesterday it was impossible for herbalife to be bought, basically, didnt he . Hes on one side of the trade. Of course hes going to say that. Of course im being just a bit facetious. If you have to do radical surgery on something that accounts for 20 of your business while the other 80 continues as is and hopefully for their sake continues to grow and flourish, exactly, tyler, how much of a hit is that . Is that a 20 hit to earnings . Its not necessarily that your u. S. Earnings go to zero or your u. S. Revenue rather. I think there could be a case to be made that this is not terrible as well. You can make any case you want. You can look at countries like india where theres certainly and other countries where there have been issues and where the governments have been angling at the multilevel marketing company. Herb, you make recommendations to actual investors out there. I dont make recommendations. Okay. If you had to do the Research Today and you know what you know today, would you say this is a short or a long or you wouldnt be in . I dont tell my subscribers to short or long. I would say this is a company that now for part of their business appears to have a broken Business Model. We personally like broken Business Models, but what we dont know is whether that broken Business Model is going to extend through the additional 80 of the business. Okay. Thats the big question. Herb, we got to leave it there, buddy. We appreciate it. Kate kelly, thank you. Herbalife almost 7 off its high for the session. Im sure youll talk more about it at fast money 5 00 p. M. Eastern. Power lunch right back. From over 30 billion connected devices. Just 30 billion . A bold group of researchers and computer scientists in Silicon Valley, had a breakthrough they called. The machine. It changed computing forever. And its been part of every new technology for the last 250 years. Everything . Everything this year, Hewlett Packard enterprise will preview the machine and accelerate the future. See star trek beyond. Will your business be ready when growth presents itself . American express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. Find out how American Express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open. Com. Everyone talks about what happens when you turn sixtyfive. But, really, its what you do before that counts. See, medicare doesnt cover everything. Only about eighty percent of part b medical costs. The rest is on you. Consider an aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans, it could really save you in outofpocket medical costs. So, call now and request this free decision guide. Discover how an aarp Medicare Supplement plan could go long™ for you. Do you want to choose your doctors . Avoid networks . What about referrals . All plans like these let you visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients, with no networks and virtually no referrals needed. So, call now, request your free guide, and explore the range of aarp Medicare Supplement plans. Sixtyfive may get all the attention, but now is a good time to start thinking about how you want things to be. Go long™. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back to power lunch. Final gold trades crossing for the day. Still at a twoweek low this on a week where equity indices made more than 1 advances across the board. Gold closing down by a quarter of a percent. Taking a check on the rest of the metals complex, todays loss biggest platinum down about 0. 9 . Lets get to the bond market. Rick santelli has been tracking the action at the cme. Rough week for bonds, rick. Ill tell you what, it just snuck up on everybody. Look at this oneweek chart of 10s. You know whats amazing . All of a sudden were up 23 basis points on the week. Thats big. Lets look at following chart starting on the 13th of june. Low yield mid june. Technicians nervous about the fact were settling above it. Next stop what was the low closing yield for many months 1. 66. Bunds, we sold all the way off to zero. Its amazing how zero now becomes a lofty level. Look at that chart. Starting to see more horsepower to the selling and fixed income sovereigns, and finally even the dollar index is noticing whats going on with rates because it looks like its going to break out and finally close on the recent range defined by around 96. 50 to 96. 606789 michelle, back to you. Have a good weekend. Rick, did i see correctly the 10year bund is now positive again . Barely, but positive . Yeah, barely. You know, depending on how sharp your pencil is, yes, it is. Thank you. New alert now on the zika crisis. Meg tirrell here with the details. Cdc out this morning with the new way that the zika virus is transmitted. We know transmitted by mosquitos, we also know it can be sexually transmitted. Up until now the only cases were maletofemale sexual transmission. Cdc saying this morning they have observed their first case of female to male sexual transmission of the sixth virus. They observed a young woman in her 20s here in new york city who had traveled to an area with active zika transmission, had come back not knowing she had the virus, had relations with her partner and a week later he also became ill. This underscores what Health Officials are saying this is a new threat and the more they learn about it the more concerned they become. This is of course people saying you should use condoms if youre in a relationship, especially if youre pregnant and your partner has traveled to an area of active zika trance mission. It is hitting territories like puerto rico quite hard. Here in the u. S. We have travel associated cases and some sexually transmitted diseases as well. Its spread almost to the entire United States based on the map. In terms of travel associated, basically every state has had a traveler come back with zika. What do we know about how long the virus lives in the bloodstream . Right now they think about a week to pass from the blood, but the concern it can last longer in other fluids in the body. So theres more transmission possible even after it leaves the blood. Thats right. Were learning a lot about these diseases, how long they last in different areas of the body. With ebola were learning that as well. Thats how weve seen some of these cases pop up again in west africa, survivors harboring the virus for a lot longer than we knew they were. So using condoms for having sex for how long . Six months . Six months is the current cdc guidance if youve traveled to an area with zika virus, protection at least that long. Dangerous too virus look at ebola and some of the others weve seen over the last 25, 30 years, theyre evolving and changing and adapting more rapidly than ever. You know, david qualm and Science Writer written great stuff on this. Obviously youve got the hot zone. What we know about zika now mantd be true next year, could it . Thats right. Were learning more. Thats why youre hearing calls from all public Health Officials saying we dont know enough about this. We need to learn more. But this is urgent and developing situation. And they were urging congress to act on funding before they left for the summer. Two sides couldnt come to an agreement. We dont have that allocated zika funding. Thank you, meg. Thanks, guys. Meg tirrell. American consumers are spending again, but are they spending enough for a retail comeback . That discussion straight ahead. Discover how a lexus master craftsman turns an ordinary experience into an extraordinary one. Get great offers at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2016 es 350 for 329 a month for 36 months and well make your first months payment. See your lexus dealer. Freshly made in the tokyojapanese tradition, each batch is small. Special. Unique. Every bowl blurring the line between food. And art. When you cook with incredible ingredients. You make incredible meals. Fresh ingredients. Stepbysteprecipes. Delivered to your door. Get your first two meals free blueapron. Com cook. Im Courtney Reagan and heres your cnbc news update. Officials have released new information on the attacker that killed at least 34 people in france. Born in tunisia, a Delivery Driver and was married. His wife is currently being detained. Some reports say he has three children. Earlier this year he was convicted of voluntary violence with a weapon but was not on any Intelligence Watch list. The attacker drove a rented refrigerator truck into the crowd gathered for a bastille day celebration. Some say he was also shooting. He was fatally shot by officers on the scene. A makeshift memorial has been growing near the scene. France is in official threeday mourning period and flags are at half staff. U. S. Secretary of state john kerry is in nos cow where he signed a condolence book at the French Embassy there. He left flowers outside. Thats cnbc news update at this hour, for now. Michelle, back to you. Thank you, courtney. Reporter in politico europe and a cnbc joins us live on the phone from brussels. Tara, good to have you on. This attack comes in the wake of the brexit vote in the united kingdom. Many people may not know france already has a very strong voice for leave in the form of marine la pen, the far right leaner there who has been campaigning on getting out of the European Union and the eurozone specifically for reasons like this terrorist attack. Has she been emboldened by this . She has been. Shes said that absolutely nothing has been done by the current president Francois Hollande. She was calling for almost a police type state in france where anywhere connected with terrorism would have their passport revoked, the monitoring of mosques. So she was calling for more aggressive action. The other problem is within the European Union there are open borders. Through the schengen zone. So that means when youre traveling from brussels to france, you dont have to go through kcustoms or border controls the same between germany and france. Significantly today germany enacted border controls. Part of the European Union has to be a trust between members sharing intelligence information. This just shows the weakness that the union has right now and the fact that terrorism, theyre not able to contain it. And actually theyre having a Foreign Affairs meeting in brussels on monday, all the Foreign Ministers from the 28 countries. And france asked at the top of the list number one discussion they have is how to contain terrorism within their countries. So you seem to be suggesting that individual countries are parting ways with that schengen accord and putting up barriers on their borders. Exactly. This has been happening since the migrant crisis. The truth is that the movement is so easy and all they have right now are passenger name records. So if youre driving, theres no stopping you from going from brussels to france where we saw Salah Abdelsalam who was the perpetrator of the france attack, who was involved, hes a coordinator in the france attack back in the fall, he was living in bruls sessels. And you saw a lot of coordination in another country. What motivates belgium to share this information with france . Theyre not obligated to. Obviously its in the best interests of both countries to share. Tara . Yes. To what degree are we once again talking about a threat to the integrity of the European Union . We talked about we talked about it for a long time with greece. Everybody thought, oh, the eurozones going to fall apart its going to be because of the greek financial crisis. Its held on. But with the migrant situation, the last time there was the paris attack it was the first question about whether or not theyre going to hold this together. Now in the wake of brexit, i would think that question is even more urgent. Exactly. I mean, people are saying to themselves, citizens of the European Union, what are you doing for us . Youre not protecting us. Thats important. Youre not keeping us economically stable. Thats obviously important as well. So a lot of questions are going back to these leaders saying what are you doing in brussels if youre not protecting us . Thats a problem. And the migrant crisis, they havent been able to redistribute the asylum seekers, so many people are just coming through the borders, through the balkans routes, turkey, greece, italy, on boats, theyre not able to contain this crisis. Not that terrorism and migration are always linked, but the paris attacks in the fall they found a syrian passport in the area of the attack. So, you know, theres a lot of linkage between the two. And people are obviously holding their leaders accountable. Tara, thanks so much for calling in for us. We appreciate it. Tara palmeri from politico group. She was talking on monday about how all these Foreign Ministers, i have watched several of those events where they all line up at the Glass Building in brussels and get out of the cars and talk to the reporters. It is the most uninspiring group of individuals. They arrive and they have nothing strong to say. They inspire no belief in them. You finish it and you think, wow, thats what theyve got . Europes got a lot of trouble when it comes to these issues. Its almost like theyre the b team. They werent good enough to make it in their individual countries politics so they get shipped off and there are a lot of them. And theyre shipped off to brussels. Right. So many leaders, so little leadership. Exactly. Well put. Check out the benchmark 10year u. S. Treasury note. Yields plunging 30 this year. Some rates around the world of course as you know going negative. Where can investors find returns right now . Our next guest knows. He helps manage almost 100 billion. Power lunch is back in two. Not too shabby. First atlanta president saying a moment ago in reuters interview that the fed may yet manage one or two rate hikes this year. It is possible. His comments come after a slew of economic reports this morning confirming the Second Quarter economic rebound. Retail sales and Industrial Production both surprising to the upside. Perhaps showing the risk of a rate hike this year is something greater than zero, which is what a lot of people in the market seem to think. Heres our cnbc rapid update. We put all of the data into a single pool, we mix it around and we get estimates from economists on the street. 2. 7 is the tracking up 0. 10 today. Range 2. 3 to 3. 3 and thats after the First Quarter revised actual 1. 1 . Heres your favorite economist pierpoint securities, Industrial Productions, heres what weve been mixing in, retail sales, ex auto, cpi may be up 0. 2 year over year, Industrial Production, thats because of autos, im a little wary of that because you have the shutdowns kind of built into the seasonals. They get messed up around this time of year. But its doing better than it was. Business inventories also a touch better. Couple of misses, Consumer Sentiment and em spipire state manufacturing disappointing. Action economics the economy is beating the feds downgraded estimates even as global Central Banks remain focused on Global Political and financial instability. One could be excused for thinking the economy was breaking out after 2 doldrums, so now we await the potential impact from brexit to see if that then knocks the u. S. Economy off this track of rebounding north of 2 . Do you think it will . I think its possible that there was some temporary pullback. I think a lot of what we saw in the First Quarter, beginning of the Second Quarter was a knockon effect from all the fears of recession that we had. Remember january the world was ending. Yeah. Guess what happened . Didnt end. The world didnt end. What do you think the odds are of two Interest Rate hikes this year as lockhart suggested . I had a couple australian friends when i lived in moscow, none. Whats it mean . Nothing and nothing. I think theres a chance of one. Retail helped a lot by housing, i dug into the numbers, i love to dig into the numbers. You have no life. I have no life. Furniture sales up, Building Materials up. Building materials huge. Big housing component. I think were going to see that. We have low Interest Rates, may get some refi, may get some acceleration. Look, there is a point in time when people have to move out of the couch. Theyve got to come off the parents couch, theyve got to get homes. Household formation has been nothing compared to the demographics. Theyve got to move out eventually some time and theyre going to have to buy a home. How old are your boys . 16 and 18. Not ready for their own households. Theyre not letting me change the basements probably anticipating moving back. Theres no retail sales by the way having a 2yearold son now when i look at the expected cost of college, im just here to proclaim the Sullivan Family will spend nothing for the next 16 years because its going to be 100,000 a year at current inflation rates. He better get a scholarship or he aint going anywhere. Im looking down the pipe of a 60,000 tuition barrel right now. I make a serious point its going to hufrt spending down the line if we dont control some education costs. And the returns dont equal what you put into it, which is a major question. And michelle is just like brimming of talking about what government oversubsidized. When you subsidize something everybody wants, it only raises the cost. The middle class gets squeezed, poor subsidize, rich can pay for it theres monopoly in the ability to expand more supply. If you could have more colleges, you could meet the supply and lower the cost. We did. We had forprofit colleges. That didnt work too good. Nope. Have a good weekend, everybody. You too, steve. Whether its global unrest, volatility or uncertainty over the elections, next guest has ideas how to protect your portfolio while still allowing you to generate income. Here now mainstay investments Charles Rinehart has under 1 billion under management. Thanks for being here. Do we need to protect an environment where the s p and dow are up almost 6 on the year . I think its always good to have a way to participate in the markets while also protecting against outsized risks. There are some ways to do that. For example, there are dividend paying stocks. We have a Global Equity yield mutual fund where all the stocks pay dividends. Thats not all that they have. They have very secure cash flow streams. And that also is good for the safety and protection do valuations matter when assessing dividend yielding stocks . I think this is a debate a lot of investors are having right now as weve seen a runup in staples, utilities and telecom. Sure, valuations always matter. We think that the market is largely fully valued. That being said we do anticipate that were moving closer to the day where we get good Old Fashioned profits growth. And that will be the catalyst. We think were in a single digit return environment in the equity market, but historically over time stocks that do pay a dividend have been less volatile than stocks that dont. Theyve also produced better returns. Thats just one of the ideas, by the way. Right. Im just curious though, charles, in terms of the notion of protecting. I mean, these days, should investors rethink about what they need to protect against . I mean, were talking about some of these areas that are dividend paying areas. These are areas that have gotten a lot of funds flowing into them because there are all these low volatility funds out there which are drawing investments, they then allocate their money to places like staples and telecoms and utilities driving up those valuations. Weve also got treasuries, for instance, and bats an asset class thats absolutely rallied this year. The notion of protecting, should we rethink what we need to protect right now . Well, i think you have to keep an open mind. First of all, you could build in some flexibility. We do that with our smart beta fixed income etfs. One of them aggp, for example, is now finding opportunities in high quality Investment GradeCorporate Bonds and also in mortgages in veering away from treasuries. However, if the most dominant and persistent pervasive trends in the marketplace were to change, it would change with it. I heard an interesting stat last week when i was speaking with our Municipal Bond team. By the way, they just put out their midyear update, its a must read for anybody investing in Municipal Bonds. But one of the points, one of the coheads of the team had made to me was that 94 of the global bond market has a yield below 2 , whereas the s p 500 that has a dividend yield that exceeds it. So i think one of the things that we need to think about is using the entirety of a portfolio to achieve an objective, whether its generating income, whether its managing volatility or whether its building longterm off. All right, charles. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Charles reinhard, mainstay investments. Is the consumer back, did the consumer ever leave or change where they were spending . Check out the big Retail Stocks this year. Macys down 1 . Walmart a big year up 20 . Jc penney perhaps the Biggest Surprise winner of all up 25 . If you own jc penney as of year one, take your family to sizzler tonight, youve done well. Were back after this. Will your business be ready when growth presents itself . Our new cocktail bitters were doing well, but after one tradeshow, we took off. All i could think about was our deadlines racing towards us. A loan would take too long. We needed money, now. My amex card helped me buy the ingredients to fill the orders. Opportunities dont wait around, so you have to be ready for them. Find out how American Express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open. Com. Find out how American Express cards and services todd spaletto, president of the north face, we are working on the prototype to match customers to gear. Watson, lets give it a try. Say its midjune and im backpacking in yosemite. Of our 353 jackets, i can recommend nine. Watson, what if it rains . There is just a 3 chance of rain, so i recommend the breathable stretch fleece fuse form dolomiti jacket. A Perfect Choice watson. No wonder our Customer Loyalty numbers keep climbing. I believe we can do even better. I like the way you think. Your Business NeedsBetter Technology i believe we can do even better. To drive better performance. So you need it to be reliable and fast. Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings event. Fast Internet Speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. Stocks hitting new alltime highs in todays session. Lets be clear we get a lot of viewer questions about this. These are intraday highs that they have hit. They could have since backed off as we see here a bunch of them have in fact. We take a look at the stocks that have hit intraday highs in todays session. Ulta, philip morris, Bristol Myers and american tower. We left Something Big off that list. We failed. What . Herbalife. Really . Alltime high . No, 52week high. Oh, these are alltime highs. Its a new high. All right. Lets get to seema mody for a market flash. We are looking at shares of infosis falling sharply after asias second Largest Software Developer lowered target citing uncertainty surrounding the brexit. The i. T. Services company had just reported a 13. 5 rise in its fiscal First Quarter net profit. This is one of indias largest tech companies. Its down about 9 in todays trade, melissa. Thank you, seema mody. Social media reacting faster than ever to take down terror sites following the deadly terror attack in france. That story when power lunch returns. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan, insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Ive been with my doctor for 12 years. Now i know ill be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. So dont wait. Call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare. And which aarp Medicare Supplement plan might be best for you. Theres a wide range to choose from. We love to travel and theres so much more to see. So we found a plan that can travel with us. Anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans endorsed by aarp, an Organization Serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. Remember, all Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans help cover what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call now to request your free decision guide. And learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now and down the road. I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. Welcome back. The world reacting with horror and sadness following the deadly attack in nice france that left more than 80 dead. It appears social media reacting faster than ever to take down terror sites. Julia boorstin is here now with more on that side of the story. Julia. Brian, thats right. The counterextremism project praising twitter for taking quick action in the wake of yesterdays tragic attack. Tweeting at twitter reacting and suspending accounts praising niceattack faster than weve ever seen before. Though the nonprofit was critical this morning that the response just this morning has slowed. A twitter spokesperson saying, quote, we condemn the use of twitter to promote terrorism. And the twitter rules make it clear that this type of behavior or any violent threat is not permitted on our service. Since the middle of 2015 alone weve suspended more than 125,000 accounts for threatening or promoting terrorist acts, primarily related to isis. Now, twitter says its increased the size of the teams that review reports of tweets repo reporting terrorism, reducing the companys Response Time to these reports. As a result, twitter says its increased the number of account suspensions and that this type of activity is shifting off the platform. In fact, the a. P. Reports that the islamic states twitter traffic has plunged 45 in the past two years. The counterextremism project says facebook is even faster than twitter at pulling down terrorist supported accounts. Certainly a key priority for both facebook and twitter right now, guys. Have they found the next site then, julia . I would imagine that theyre using just another social media site or service to promote messages of violence. Well, the thing is we have to think about how twitter is this open platform. And because of this it is, would be or could be a powerful way to reach a broad array of people with these messages from the likes of isis. So theres been a lot of talk about how youtube, facebook and twitter are all trying to really find all of the people who are posting that could be doing things that are dangerous and trying to take them down. So they have to be very careful, but a lot of this is relying on individuals to report this kind of negative activity. I dont know what the next platform is that could be used, but certainly people trying to use facebook, twitter and youtube to share these types of videos and these types of messages. Everyones hoping that people together can report these bad actors. Got it, julia. Thank you. Lets discuss more about this. Its 2 00 p. M. On wall street. Its 8 00 p. M. In nice, france. Lets get you caught up on the latest attack there, 84 People Killed, 202 woundsed. Police say attacker was a tunisian living in france. Our next guest says a threat like this one by an apparent lone wolf on soft civilian targets perhaps the hardest type to detect or prevent. Here now former White House Homeland Security Council director michael barrett. Mike, good to have you here. Thanks for having me. All the medias doing it. Theyre counting up all the attacks since january of last year, the number of dead. Why hasnt france done more . Could france do more . Well, you know, the thing thats really been disturbing, i think, is everybodys calling including the president ial candidate calling for more intelligence, right, as though this is an intelligence failure. I was a Naval Intelligence officer. The intelligence is very good, the problem is youre talking about a needle in that huge h haystack of all of humanity. Frankly, because of the Law Enforcement rules and Civil Liberties and other constraints that Law Enforcement has, you cant do anything until the person has actually done something wrong. And so in a case like this where the person apparently has no record of any significant risk profile that would make you think that hes up to no good, theres really nothing you can do in advance at a federal or state level. And thats why i think its incumbent on individuals and on the private sector to start stepping up and saying what can we do. Yeah, what does that mean . Individual and private sector stepping up what does that mean . Go back to 9 11. We thought there was going to be a very fast pace tempo of attacks. We talked a lot about Business Continuity planning. We talked about individuals having generators and food at their house. Individuals having safety plans for how to reunite their family and how to communicate following an event. Things that allow those of us with means to take care of ourselves so that the federal government, the state and local Law Enforcement officials can take care of those who cant help themselves. So really what you want to do is focus on Business Continuity. You want to move your data and your backup to the cloud so that if you lose one physical location, you can still continue to operate. Its all about resilience. Hold on. How will this event, which was neither a bomb though there were explosives on the truck, nor principally a shooting, though there were weapons on the truck, how is this kind of attack going to change, one, the way we live and the way we approach big public gatherings, like the fourth of july or new years eve in times square number one. And number two, how businesses have to spend to protect their interests. Well, thats exactly right. I think for the first one its an individual decision, right . Individuals are going to have to decide, theres now more risk, right . In the 1980s in new york city going to times square there was risk of mugging or getting robbed. Weve been able to clean that up. People have made the decision that they want to go out for the new years eve dropping of the ball, that sort of thing. Individuals have to factor that into their risk profile. From a business standpoint i think at this point we can no longer say we didnt see the threat was there. We need to look at things like theres film you can put on glass so if an explosion goes off it doesnt shatter and wound all the people inside your building. Things like that. Theres any number of small discreet activities that we can take that are not so much aimed at stopping an event but at dramatically reducing the impact of an event. I think thats an important point. Politicians want to come out and say we can protect you, reality is that as weve just seen as a murder murderer, its not a tragic event, its a murderer, a murderer drove a truck through a crowd. This was not a complicated technologically savvy thing that involved just some guy drove a truck over by the way the first person run over was a muslim woman. This guy was indiscriminate in his killing. But heres the thing, in the early 1970s there was a plane hijacked on average for once a week, for two years, there were 2,000 domestic bombings in america between the years of 1972 and 1976, hard to believe, but true. Are we at a point where we just need to tell people, theres not much this is the world that were in. I think we really are. One of the things i think the politicians are getting wrong and frankly i was a member of the Bush Administration and something i think we got wrong, we took a paternalistic approach to the problem. We said the federal government will take care of it. You think about even things like hurricane katrina, fema, weve gone in and said its the governments responsibility to make everybody whole after the fact as well as to make sure that the event doesnt happen to the best of our ability. Theres an important government but hold on, it is the role of the federal government to protect the borders and to maintain law and order. I mean, i get what youre saying that maybe we all have to get used to this. But it also sounds to me like youre saying, we got to give up on trying to prevent it. Are you going that far . Not at all. Theres three different types of attacks. Theres the lone wolf type attacks. Were not going to be able to stop them using intelligence. They stay off the radar. Something like the istanbul airport attack. Those guys came in from syria with weapons across the border. Thats where intelligence and Law Enforcement and information sharing and all the other things we built since 9 11 thats where that comes in to play. But for these individuals that selfradicalized on the internet, they grab a gun, drive their car, take a knife, you know, weve had incidents in britain where theyve gone up and stabbed Police Officers and military officers. Uhhuh. Youre not going to stop that because theres no warning. Theres nothing Law Enforcement and government can do basically is what youre saying here. I think we all intuitively understand that. And do you know what, tyler michael, im going to ask you this. Im going to ask you here on the table this or ask the listeners this. Do you know how many federal government Counterterrorism Organization there are . Tons. More than 200. No, no, more than 1,200. 17 million square feet of space, million square feet has been built devoted devoted to counterterrorism in the last decade. There are 850,000 americans who now have top secret security clearance. By the way, only reason i know this stuff off the top of my head is i was listening to Malcolm Gladwells podcast revisionist history yesterday. But, michael, 1,200 Counterterrorism Organizations in the federal government alone and yet are we any safer than ten years. Im not saying the government should stop working at it. You talk about a guy driving a truck down a crowded street. But are we safer than europe . Were not safer from the guy driving the truck because were not going to be able to stop that. Thats why i say we have to reduce the impact of that event. We are safer from some of the Bigger Picture stuff. I will say my complaint actually about that size of the federal effort that youre talking about is its almost entirely focused on feds helping feds and feds helping state and local. The real Critical Infrastructure problem we have here, the vulnerable power grids, the water supply, some of the other issues, those are hard and theyre not sexy and theyre going to take a long time to fix, but thats where the feds need to be focusing. Thats where dhs ought to be focusing. And then where the rest of the Counterterrorism Community will focus is on syria and iraq uprooting the cancer at its source. But theres still more we as individuals can do. Right, im not calling for vigilanteism or anything like that, were certainly going to have the armed response by the police force, but as an individual business owner, its incumbent upon yourself to have a generator so you can provide power for your employees. Things like that. Yeah, when you talk to people who live through the ira bombings over in the uk and talked about always being vigilant on the tube or saying something when they actually saw something. So i think maybe lessons were going to start to learn throughout the world all over again, mike. Thanks. Thank you. Mike barrett. Lets get to eamon javers, breaking news here. Yeah, hi, melissa. Since late 2002 one of the most highly classified and controversial secrets held by the United States government were 28 pages of the 9 11 report detailing exactly what involvement or lack of involvement the saudi government may have had in supporting the 9 11 hijackers. Remember that 15 of the 19 assailants on that day were saudi nationals. Just moments ago House Intelligence Committee has released those 28 pages that a lot of people have wanted to take a look at for many, many years to find out exactly what the u. S. Government concluded about possible saudi involvement in the 9 11 attacks. And i want to just read you here the first sentence, this is just so hot off the presses we havent had a chance to go through it in any detail. But the first sentence says while in the United States some of the september 11th hijackers were in contact with and received support or assistance from individuals who may be connected to the saudi government. That is a finding of the joint inquiry into Intelligence Community activities before and after the terrorist attacks of september 11th, 2001. So you can imagine a lot of folks will be poring through these 28 pages now released for the first time in years. The saudi government itself, i should say, has been pushing for the release of these. They feel that there was no they say there was no saudi Government Official involvement in the 9 11 attacks. And they say that release of these pages would vindicate their side of the argument. Well have to wait and see whats in the pages as we go through the them to see if that is in fact the case, guys, back to you. Have they been redacted in anyway . Weve got the whole 28 pages here. As you can see on the sheet we can get a closeup of that one, you can see some of the sentences in the pages that are individually redact. Been whited out it looks like. For context theyre blacked out here. Okay. So some of the documents are some of the names are censored. But i can tell you in a quick scan of this one name that is mentioned in here is prince bendar, of course a high ranking saudi official here in the United States close to the Bush Administration at the time. He was the ambassador, wasnt he . Exactly. And very well connected inside washington, d. C. And remember that there was an effort or an assessment at the time very early on that there may have been iraqi govmt in the 9 11 attacks. That of course turned out not to be correct. This will go into some detail about what potential saudi government involvement there was or saudi high ranking officials below the level of the government or not connected to or directly involved with the saudi government itself. But theres a lot to pore over here. And obviously a lot of revisionist history going on now in terms of the decision to invade iraq, how we handled the saudi government in the wake of the 9 11 attacks and all of the stuff thats happened in all the years since then. Yeah, go read them, eamon and let us know what you find. Will do. Eamon javers. Lets get back to the markets and welcome in one of the smartest investment minds out there today, global cio and chairman of investments at guggenheim partners. Were going to switch gears, youre saying that the Global Economy is a very key and very crucial tipping point. Right. How and why . Well, brian, after in the wake of brexit we now have, you know, major issues in japan, which have been there all along. In europe we have a situation where the banks are, you know, in severe need of recapitalization. Were seeing pressure on earnings as a result of ecb policy of buying corporate debt, which is cutting the net interest margins of the banks. So, you know, at this point we have to ask ourselves one of two questions. Are we standing looking in the abyss in europe and in japan chrks is going to force the hands of Central Banks to pour more liquidity into the market by coming up with more creative methods of quantitative easing or perhaps helicopter money. Or on the other side was brexit like the chess paddles on someone who had a heart attack and thats stimulating Economic Activity here in the United States as a result of the decline in Interest Rates in the wake of the crisis. So, i think, were sitting at this moment. I have my own view on which way were going to go, but, you know, were at a tipping point. What is your view . The reason you are on television, my friend, is to give us your view on the way you think were going. Well, i think there are two things here, right. One is i do think that were looking into an abyss in europe. And that the Central Banks are going to pump more liquidity into the system. But in some ways, brian, in some of the key Asset Classes i dont think it matters. Because if were on the other side and the u. S. Economy is going to reaccelerate as some think, then, you know, risk assets are going to do very well. And so if the world is going to be flooded with liquidity again, then risk assets are the place to be. And if were suddenly seeing a reacceleration in the economy and the United States, risk assets are where we should be. So bottom line is stocks, high yield and emerging markets are probably the best place to put your money at work. Scott, where do you stand on where you see the 10year yield going . I mean, this has been an extraordinary week for the bond market. I mean, this is a week in which the 10year yield started off around 1. 36 . And right now we look to close somewhere around 1. 6 . Quite a big change in five days. It is. And Pretty Amazing the change we got right after brexit too. Im not surprised, melissa, with the things that weve seen here with yields, you know, that 15 5 to 140 area was the old low. Weve moved here quickly. The recent consolidation is basically what i would have expected. I didnt think we would just immediately go lower. Ive been on the record for a long time, i think the 10year note will ultimately get to 1 . Scott, its a weird question to ask, i mean, for so long you would have seen, oh, rising rates would be bad for the market. But i wonder if there isnt something in the psychology right now where people are so worried about whether or not the yields around the world are signaling something deflationary that maybe it might be good for investor psychology to actually see them rise. Well, i think youre right on the mark in terms of, you know, what people are thinking. I think theres the other side of this story. That is to say, look, you know, things in the United States arent so bad. You know, earnings, i think, are going to start to improve year over year. You know, after the next quarter or so. The market is a discounting mechanism. Were starting to see stocks take off. And so, you know, maybe were safe. Maybe my view of the world is wrong. I want to get your reaction. Ive been thinking about this bull market. And to me it seems less like a bull market and more like a steer market, steer, its a bull relieved of shall we say animal spirits. And thats what i sense in this market. It is a steer. Its moving higher, not because of any great animal spirits. Well, you know, i got to tell you, tyler, there was a great cartoon i saw a couple weeks ago. Im going to put it up in my office. It had janet yellen as a fireman up in the tree looking at a kitten up in the tree going how did you get up here so high, darling. The reality is i think what youre talking about is how did we get to these kinds of levels on stocks given all the uncertainty in the world. And i think the answer is plainly coming out of the central bank. The fact that the fed now i mean, weve flipflopped so many times on the fed this year its amazing. In the wake of brexit, you know, people were saying theyre not going to tighten for the next two years. And now, you know, with the comments this week that are coming from fed president s, youd think tightening is back on the agenda. Scott mine, rd, global cio f of scott, thank you very much. Well put, tyler. Thats no bull. Its something. All right, coming up, retail sales better than expected. Is the shopper back . Is this just a head fake . Were going to speak with two top retail executives. Plus, donald trump officially picking indiana governor mike pence as his running mate. What does Silicon Valley think of the Trump Campaign . All that and more coming up on power lunch. For decades, investors have used a 60 40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. Yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets cant. And even though theyre called alternatives, theyre actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. Thats why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. Translation . Goodbye 60 40, hello 50 30 20. Itslexus performance iny to streetlegal form. Taking for a limited time get great offers on our complete line of f sport performance vehicles. At the lexus golden opportunity sales event. Welcome back everybody. Retail sales for june coming in much stronger than expected. Is this a sign retail is making a comeback . Ceo of hudson bay, Parent Company of lord taylor, former ceo of saks, gentlemen, welcome. We had on yesterday Jonathan Tisch of loews hotels. Said people are spending on experiences rather than stuff. I think theres generally good news in todays retail sales. Its not strong everywhere. But its strong in Building Materials, strong in sporting goods, strong in areas such as restaurants, so that part is definitely true. We saw weaker numbers in electronics and in apparel. So its a little bit imbalance, but those are cyclical things that happen all the time. For now thats where it is and it will go back the other way. So professor and ceo, how do you take and retail and environment that jerry knows so well and that you know so well and turn it from merely a Shopping Experience into Something Bigger . Its not just pokemon go. Well, look, the consumer never went away. What drove sales in the u. S. In june apparently was auto and home furnishings. Apparel and accessories continues to be very tough. And the trend line theyve been struggling with, which is negative, is now in its third year. So, you know, how do you change the slope of that curve . Its very difficult to foresee happy ending this year, 2016. I think the influence of amazon and others like amazon continues to be extraordinarily pervasive. Consider the extraordinary sales that amazon drove just a few days ago, and i would submit theyre just getting started. Prime day was more of a primitive expression of promotion than something more highly evolved. And theyre going to learn how to make it more and more compelling. Amazons a force, but thats not the only reason why certainly a retailer like saks or lord taylor, or nordstrom or any of these other guys which have had terrible stock price performances because the cycle, you said it was cyclical, the cycle has been longer than maybe it has in the past. How do you change that . Started last fall. Well see what happens when we come against it. Okay. As for experiences thats where were about every day. When you go to saks fifth avenue and walk into that store on fifth avenue, its a wonderful experience. Were putting 250 million into that building, so it will be the finest Department Store in the world. People love that. In canada where weve invested heavily in our buildings, we took a Department Store company with hudson bay not performing well and for the last five years weve had strong positive samestore sales, the highest in the world of any Department Store. So people dont dislike bricks and mortar retail, they just like bad bricks and mortar retail. I love Department Stores. I may be an old guy, i love them. I dont go anymore. My wife will back me up on this, i always say that the best theater in new york is to walk into the first floor of saks fifth avenue at christmas time. Ill agree on that. At christmas time, it is great theater. But how do you make me want to come into the store when its not christmas time . I say you got to start serving alcohol. We do. Where . Where is it . Come on in i totally agree with you. I say it all the time. Nothing is better than selling legally addictive substances. I want to have a party. Having said that, were investing heavily in the internet. We just bought guilt, one of the strongest onlineonly retailers, huge appeal, we do several billion a year on the internet and kneading that together in very weird ways. How do you get melissa to come back in the Department Stores. One second. She doesnt have to go inside. If you go to saks. Com right now, theres a widget hes falling off his chair. Theres a widget that pops up. Its a personal shopper in the store nearest you saying how can i help you. If you want to just shop that way, you stay on there and you shop. But theres someone to help you, who works in that store can send you pictures and really deal with you. If you want to go in and try it on, you can do that. You dont have to come to the store if you dont want to, but we want to make sure you get the service we offer every day whether its online or in the store. Enthusiasm, which is infectious, unfortunately the experiences youre describing in new york, for example, are not indicative of the u. S. At large. Too many stores in too many malls look tired and boring reb dont offer differentiated service, dont offer values that are exciting. Sounds like a valid point. Hes right. Thats why were investing 800 million in our stores this year. Right. We said in germany were going to invest 1 billion in the large Department Store in germany we own. So if we keep investing in them just like in canada, were going to get very different results from what mark is talking about. A lot of Department Stores are tired looking. People dont dislike bricks and mortar, they just dislike bad experiences at bricks and mortar. You guys come back any time. Jerry storch, not to be confused with larry storng no ones ever said that before. This big name media stock is up almost 20 this year, but it just got slapped with a sell rating and its taking a hit. Weve got street Talk Straight ahead. We did actually hit a fresh new high on the s p 500 today. Weve backed down off of that. Take a look at where the sectors are stacking up at this hour. Weve got discretionary and financials, an interesting reversal in financials in todays session. Materials, telecom and utilities leading the pack there. Much more power lunch right after this. speaking japanese oh watson, your japanese is very good. Thank you. speaking japanese exactly. I can understand nuance, context and idiom in seven languages to help companies all over the world with everything from retail solutions, to banking, to cyber security. speaking japanese wont replace the full value of your totaled new car. The guy says you picked the wrong Insurance Plan. No, i picked the wrong insurance company. With Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, you wont have to worry about replacing your car because youll get the full value back including depreciation. And if you have more than one Liberty Mutual policy, you qualify for a multipolicy discount, saving you money on your car and home coverage. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 59. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. Im Courtney Reagan. Heres your cnbc news update alt this hour. It is still unclear if the attacker who drove into a crowd in nice, france, acted alone or had ties to terrorist groups. Officials say he was born in tunisia. 84 People Killed and 200 more wounded before the Police Fatally shot the attacker last night. The Democratic National committee is out with a speakers list for upcoming convention. Names include president and first lady, Vice President joe biden and the mothers of shooting victims eric garner and trayvon martin. New England PatriotsQuarterback Tom Brady will not continue his appeal to the nfl. He posted a message saying he will no longer proceed the legal process. A and in rio, the Brazilian Air force making a show of force. Military aircraft flew overhead for cameras less than a month ahead of the olympic games. Over 15,000 air force personnel and 80 aircraft will be in rio when the games start on august 5th. Thats the cnbc news update at this hour. Back over to michelle. Thank you, courtney. The oil market is closing for the day. Lets get to Jackie Deangelis at the nymex. Hey, michelle. Not a lot going on in the market today, but we did get a bump of about a quarter at the close closing just under 46 a barrel for crude. Whats interesting is that for the week we were only up a little more than 1 . So we had these big swings every day, but then they went in the opposite direction and we pretty much were flat on the week. Having said that traders expect this pattern to continue until we have a little more certainty about whats going on in the world right now and also whats going on with the supply demand situation. That rebalance is being heavily relied on. People think it will send prices higher, but we need more evidence of it. Back over to you. Jackie, thank you very much. Time now for trading nation, acg analystics, larry, were going to hit the stock market but i want to ask you something related to the news of the day, what does all the Economic Data we had today, we got, tell you about the current state of the u. S. Economy . Well, most importantly the inflation data was hotter some of the recent inflation data and today is some of the hottest weve seen, so thats creating a dynamic where the feds going to run out of excuses. So the economys picking up a bit. And thats going to force the dollar higher and risk off as we saw last august. Same scenario is playing out again. All right. Now to the markets. Five days including today, i know were not doing much right now, but earlier we did five days of new highs for the s p 500. Sign of either, larry, a good news market, which is going to go higher, or completely overcooked, nowhere to go but down . Well, the one thing that we know has worked since 2013 late 2013, today we have 74 of stocks in the s p 500, 74 are above the 200day moving average. And the one thing thats worked since late 2013 when you get above 70 of the stocks in the s p 500, above the 200day moving average, you sell the market. You buy the market when 20 to 30 to 35 of the stocks are above the 200day moving average. If you do that youve dramatically outperformed the s p. And thats what weve been recommending clients do. Buy fear, sell complacency, its that simple. Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids, youre never coming home. Nick, do you agree with that . Is it time to sell the overall stock market . Overall were a little more optimistic than that. The bottom line here is that the u. S. Has become the safe haven equity market for stock investors globally. Youre seeing it in the etf flows with 10 billion into the spiders just at the beginning of july and money out of europe and asia. On top of that dont think the rate cycles over globally, so youll have support for continued very low Interest Rates that help valuations, which less face it arent great to begin with but arent horrible yet. And finally, sentiment about this rally is so bad. This is the mosthated breakout and mosthated rally in history. If you go counterseptembermennty time to buy. Not a ringing endorsement, but well take it. Thank you, nick and larry, both very much. For more head to our website tradingnation. Cnbc. Com. The big news this morning donald trump making it official. Hes picked indiana governor mike pence as his running mate. Coming up, Silicon Valleys take, if you care about it, on the Trump Campaign. When a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis and a 200 savings card. All right. Donald trump officially naming indiana governor mike pence as his running mate, but this is unlikely to change anything for Silicon Valley which is or has been decideecidedly antitrump. Josh lipton is in San Francisco with that story. Josh. Well, tyler, a disaster for global innovation. That is what tech leaders say donald trump would be if elected president. Some 150 investors, entrepreneurs and engineers have now signed an open letter denouncing the real estate mogul. They say he stands against the open exchange of ideas, Free Movement of people and in their words productive engagement with the outside world. The letter says he campaigns on anger, bigotry, fear of new ideas and new people and a fundamental belief that america is weak and in decline. Now, those signing the letter include founders like stewart butterfield, investors like chris sacca and vinod khosla and techs like paul jacobs. Noticeably missing some wellknown tech ceos that do define this industry. You will not see apples tim cook on this list nor googles sunder, jeff bezos, sasha nidela. Did not respond for request for comment, but why would they choose not to sign the letter . Perhaps its because they dont want to be pigeon holed into a position they later have to defend. Also by denouncing trump they run the risk of alienating a lot of customers. After all, clinton is leading trump by just three percentage points, according to real clear politics. Trumps campaign by the way did not respond to requests for comment. Seems like the better question is why would they sign it, not why would they not sign it. Putting their companies sort of weight on the line one way or another. Theres also a question, tyler, about when you look at josh, thank you very much, by the way. The stance Elizabeth Warren took against airbnb, there might be the possibility that tech is pushing back against the left because theyre going after their Business Models and complaining about that they dont distribute enough to different parts of society. Yeah. Anyhow, its A Peter Thiel by the way speaking at the republican convention. I think tim cook may have hosted a fundraiser recently for one side or the other. The whole things weird anyway since californias probably going to go democrat. Like whats the point . Anyway, thanks, josh. He was going to host and then he didnt. All right. Lets keep it in Silicon Valley but try to wash off the politics. New report showing Venture Capital spending was back in a big way last quarter. It rose 20 from the First Quarter. Lets bring in dalton kacaldwel simple question, are there enough good new companies out there to absorb this money . Or is it just good money after bad . Hi there. Good to be here. I definitely think there are enough good startups to absorb the money. A lot of what were seeing across the sectors is, you know, things around transportation or housing or health care. And a lot of the moneys going to those companies. And theres such huge potential to improve across those industries that theres definitely enough good deals. Its not like all of the money is going into, you know, the same picked over software ideas. Thats the big trend were seeing in Silicon Valley. The reason i bring it up and weve talked about this a bit the last couple of days, dalton, obviously twitter sort of the poster child, but theres been a number of companies that are way down from after they went public. Youve got not just the ones we know like twitter and fitbit, but Companies Like a10 or rapid 7 which are down huge from their either ipo or first day of trading. And i just wonder how many Great Companies are left out there, because the lack of ipos suggests maybe not many or at least the Public Markets arent needed. You know, its a fair point. The way that we see things at y comm are in the early stages of the company is it can take eight to ten years for an investment we make to eventually go public. So, yes, there are definitely cycles you see on the Public Markets. And this years ipo market looks okay, but we try not to think too closely. And if we overcorrect either on the upside or downside because of whats happening in the Public Markets, were going to make mistakes in our investments. And i think a lot of Venture Capitalists feel the same way. They try to invest on what they think would be good businesses that could be very, very big and to not overcorrect on what the markets are doing. That doesnt hold for the latest stage investors. Youll notice that latestage Venture Capitalist invest differently, hedge funds invest differently and more tied to ipo. At the early stage we try not to pay too much attention. In the beginning you named sectors attracting a lot of attention right now, health care, housing, when do we start seeing the fruits of those companies and does Silicon Valley have the expertise now, are they caught offsides a little bit in terms of being too staffed on the tech and internet side . Well, i think were already seeing things like uber and lyft redefining transportation. And, you know, ive traveled all around the u. S. And so many cities now have ride sharing. And its becoming increasingly mainstream. I think that will only increase. And so i think those are good examples of how transportation is being changed by things. As far as airbnb goes, that is i would argue that has something to do with housing. And that, again, is pretty big all over the world and is not just something that only people in Silicon Valley use. And so i think those are early signs. And those sorts of changes will only increase over time. What do you make of people like Elizabeth Warren going after Companies Like airbnb, like the ubers of the world saying the sharing economy doesnt share enough with the workers . I mean, i think theres some subtlety there on her part . Without knowing too much of the details. No. Essentially you want to do what is right for consumers. I think a lot of people that have used uber would say uber is good for consumers. On the other hand you also want to have fair regulation. You want to have, you know, background checks. You want to do things that are ultimately good for the populous. And so i think the subtlety is that in these debates about things like uber and airbnb there is extreme, you know, these are all bad, shut them all down. And on the other side we should never regulate them at all, dont touch them. I think the truth is somewhere in between the two. And i think that subtlety is often lost in the public debate about these types of services. Are you suggesting that sometimes the media is wants it one way or the other and cant see the gray in the middle . No, its politicians. I mean, Elizabeth Warren has been very clear that the sharing economy is creating a lot of money but its going to be policy that makes, ensures that its shared equally and correctly. I mean, shes been very clear about that. Well, a lot of the people that make money from airbnb are the people that own the house. And, you know, its people that are supplementing their income able to make mortgage payments by renting it out. I know thats not everybody, but it definitely is empowering individual consumers and individual owners to but she apparently hadnt haes heard that yet. I was giving a point about the media sort of hitting our own industry on i think we tell the story quite well. I was just trying to make a little bit of a friday joke. Didnt work out. Dalton caldwell i got it. I liked it. Thank you, dalton. I knew i liked you. Thank you. Every day we bring you five stocks to watch well, some days we dont, but most days we do. Usually there might be stocks that are buying opportunities. Today we have a bunch of downgrades and some short selling opportunities. Its coming up in street talk. Stick around. [announcer] is it a force of nature . Or a sales event . The summer of audi sales event is here. Get up to a 5,000 bonus on select audi models. Dont put off checking out your Medicare Options until 65. Now is a good time to get the ball rolling. Medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. The rest is up to you. Thats where aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company come in. Like all standardized Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans, they could help save you in outofpocket medical costs. Taking informed steps really makes a difference later. Thats what it means to go long™. Call now and request this free decision guide and explore the range of aarp Medicare Supplement plans. All plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. These are the only Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans endorsed by aarp. Call now and request your free decision guide. And start gathering the information you need to help you go long™. All right. Even on somewhat somber of a friday were going to work to find some opportunity for you. Lets get now to street talk, first up, cbs. This is an opportunity to short sell the stock, at least according to to ubs. Really they cut the stock to a sell rating from a neutral. Stock above their 52 price. Ubs ask that, hey, listen, the stock has run but maybe run ahead of itself. Even though they agree cbs has a, quote, healthy longterm outlook, but the analyst at ubs says stock move higher have to have a couple things happen, new leg to the content story and over the top ott subscriber has to be success and number three ad strength has to sustain current levels. Ubs does not think all three can happen. So they cut cbs to sell. Some thought that perhaps the two could be combined in some way. Great point. Second stock, qualcomm being downgraded to underperform. Three negative catalysts coming, bmo expects meaningful guide down, bmo also thinks Management Guidance for 3g and 4g growth too aggressive. See room for readjustment there. Bounced off the february lows of 44 and been a tough ride for most longer term qualcomm shareholders. And cowen. Even with all the issues, analysts think it will have a decent Second Quarter with a beat to surprise some and positive and updated drug data and, quote, if anything goes their way, sentiment should shift to glass half full. Not much of a ringing endorsement but a top pick. Yeah. What is interesting, there was a note out today of sectors around the president ial election and health care, a big component of bio tech, outperforms after the election and lines up with that predictive second half better performance. Average target price about 70 more than the current stock so something has to give. Yeah. Chipotle, Morgan Stanley is downgrading it. Of those people 720 actually eat at cmg. 13 say theyll not go back any time soon and another 13 reduced the frequency of the visits. Morgan stanley believes the Sales Recovery protracted than the market believes and will have to ramp up marketing spend, ie promotions, giveways to lure back the customers. Either way, this has been a tough run for investors. Three years wiped out. Literally in midjuly, chipotle at 405. Midjuly of 2013. Three years of gains wiped out. Tough story. Today is sealed air and a 9 billion company, doesnt get a lot of play. Citigroup upgrading to a buy from a neutral. 56 target. They note the lagging Stock Performance since reporting in april but they believe that concerns over brazil and brexit are overdone and sentiment is too negative. They see acceleration in the second half driven by ecommerce and a beef cycle recovery. Beef . Goes with the comments of tyler earlier and a bad last quarter makes comps easier. So the beef cycle recovery. I smell a special series. I smell something. Beef cycle recovery. I smell something. Part one. Hamburg hamburgers. Part two the remains of hamburgers. Shanghai street talk thankfully over. Shanghai composite up nearly 6 in the last month. Should you invest in chinese stocks . You know what . Were not going to go break but the president right now. [ applause ] good afternoon, everyone. Just taking the opportunity to greet each of you in person and we welcome all of you, each year the diplomat corps comes so that we can say thank you for the partnership between our nations and our peoples and reaffirm our commitment of peace and Human Dignity around the world. Obviously, we come here with heavier hearts than normal. Overnight in nice, we witnessed another tragic and appalling attack on the freedom and the peace that we cherish. Today, our hearts are with the people of france and with all the innocent men, women and so many children who were hurt or killed in this sickening attack. This includes americans that we know of. A family from texas, a father and young son, just 11 years old, who were there on vacation. Their family like so many others are devastated. Theyve grieving. They need all the love and support of our American Family as they grapple with an unimaginable loss and try to get through what are going to be very difficult days. And so, on behalf of all of us i think i want to welcome our friend ambassador of france and i had a chance to meet with him right before i came out so that he knew that its not just the United States of america but the entire world that stands in solidarity with the people of france during this difficult time. I spoke to president hollande earlier today, and in addition to conveying deep condolences, i reminded him that france is americas oldest ally and one of our strongest. We owe our freedom to each other. Americans and french have stood together for two centuries. And i told president hollande well stand united now. In our grief, in our praying for the many who are injured, many of whom are still fighting for their lives and we pledge to stand with our french friends as we defend our nations against this scourge of terrorism and violence. And this is a threat to all of us. We dont know all the details but what we know is the capacity of even a single individual to do extraordinary harm to our people, to our way of life. A lot of nations represented here today have been impacted this year and in previous years. In recent weeks we have seen heinous attacks inspired or directed by isil, here in the United States and turkey, in iraq and bangladesh, in saudi arabia. These terrorists are targeted and killing innocent people of all backgrounds and all faiths including muslims. And i know i spoke for all of us when i say that these individuals and these networks are an affront to all of our humanity. Many of the nations that are represented here today are part of our Global Coalition against isil and i want to take this opportunity to say once more we will not be deterred. We will not relent. Were going to keep working together to prevent attacks and defend our homeland. We are going to keep taking out isil leaders and pushing isil back in syria and iraq, keep standing with our partners from africa to afghanistan and we are going to destroy this vile terrorist organization. And in contrast to these terrorists who only know how to kill and destroy, were going to win this fight by building. By never giving up on diplomacy to end the syrian civil war, by working with partners around the world including muslim communities to push back against hateful ideologies that twist and distort islam. A religion that teaches peace and justice and compassion. Well defeat these ideologies offering a better vision of development and economic progress so people, especially young people, have more hope and opportunity and are less susceptible to extremism and violence in the first place and well continue to promote political opportunity and democracy so citizens have a say in their future. And well win this fight by staying true to our values, values of pluralism and rule of law and diversity. And freedoms like the freedom of religion. Freedom of speech and assembly. Very freedoms that the people of nice were celebrating last night on bastille day. In the wake of last nights attacks we have heard more suggestions that all muslims in america be tested, some for their beliefs, some deported or jailed. Suggestion is repugnant and an affront to everything we stand for as americans. We cannot give in to fear or turn on each other or sacrifice our way of life. We cannot let ourselves be divided by religion because thats exactly what the terrorists want. We should never do their work for them. And here in the United States, our freedoms including freedom of religion, help keep us strong and safe and to be vigilant to secure our freedoms. All of us, whatever nations we represent here, i think have to step back and reflect on what we are doing to eliminate this kind of chronic violence. Its been a difficult several weeks here in the United States, but the divide that exists is not between races and ethnicities and religions. It is between people who recognize the common humanity of all people and are willing to build institutions that promote that common humanity and those who do not. Those who would somebody is less than them because of their tribe or ethnicity or faith or color and those impulses exist in all our countries. And those impulses, when we do not speak out against them and build strong institutions, to protect people from those impulses, they can take over. They can be unleashed. So that all of us have responsibilities. Not just a few. I want to say that even as were relentless against terrorists, its also worthy for us to recognize that our nations have