never experience another crisis like this again. that's how we'll build an economy that works for working americans. that's how we'll help our children climb higher than we did. that's how we'll grow our great american middle class. i love you, too, sister. you have been hollering too much. your throat was all -- we're going to grow our middle class with policies that benefit you, the american worker, and as john sweeney noted, i have set up a middle class task force to do just that, run by my outstanding vice president, that scrappy kid from scranton, pennsylvania, joe biden. we'll grow our middle class by building a stronger labor movement. that's why i named hilda solis, daughter of a union member, as our new labor secretary. [ applause ] hilda and i know that whether we're in economic -- good economic times or bad economic times, labor is not the problem. labor is part of the solution. we continue to look back and that's why we've begun reversing and replacing old anti-labor ahead. the major averages so far today, executive orders, policies with once again stuck in neutral. ones that protect your benefits we had mixed economic data. and protect your safety, protect the declaration of the end of your rights to organize and collectively bargain. the recession technically by ben bernanke about an hour ago. a number of big caps are surging that's one of the very first bills i signed into law was the today, actually hitting 52-week lily ledbetter act to uphold the highs. google, ebay, apple, goldman basic principle of equal pay for equal work. sachs and coach. >> we'll head to california for that's why i stand behind the employee free choice act because a women's conference. we're going to find out what a majority of workers want a uni union. [ applause ] shei sheila bair has to say. the ceo of daimler will join us from the frankfurt auto show we'll grow our middle class by in germany. creating jobs for americans who here's what else is on the menu. want one, not just any jobs, but i'm john harwood in jobs with good wages and good washington. yesterday, president obama was benefits. jobs that give a person the scolding wall street. satisfaction of knowing they'll today, he's out telling average meet their responsibilities to their families. workers he's going to fight for jobs that aren't just a source of income, but a source of pride them. i'm steve liesman. and self-respect. ben bernanke says the recession every american deserves that is technically over. much. what does that mean? earlier today i visited a gm i'll have the story at 1:00. plant in youngstown, ohio. and it's a big story. youngstown in the house. the dow flat right now. retail stocks are on the losing this plant is rehiring about end, but a number of stocks at new highs. 1,000 workers to make the cars bob kicks it off at the new york of tomorrow. that's a sign of life in our stock exchange. >> once again, we are slowing auto industry, and i'm pleased to see it. drifting higher. more advancing stocks than declining stocks led my commodity names. gold's over $1,000 and many but you know what? i don't want to just see jobs names are at 52-week highs. returning to our auto industry. take a look at some commodity i want to see them being created across this country in every names. some of the big what we call industry. that's why we're investing in a base metal producers, meantime, clean energy economy that will free america from the grip of foreign oil and create millions of new green jobs that can't be deflation is rearing its ugly outsourced. that's why i have named a new head. point person to jump start kroger out, a supermarket company, their numbers below american manufacturing so that we can make made in america not just a slogan, we want to make expectations. their guidance was lower than it a reality. expected. all the big supermarkets are to the downside. [ applause ] we're seeing signs of the retail traders coming back. all dramatically higher. daily client trades in the the month of august compared to august of last year. >> we are outperforming the s&p and dow, but just by a smidge. we'll grow our middle class by doing a better job educating our sons and daughters. it was the g.i. bill that helped let's talk about yahoo!. strengthen the middle class in the 20th century, and our the price is 450. generation deserves the same they say that's not the case. kind of commitment. that's why we've begun improving it's up almost 4%. dell and ebay up one point. standards, making college and advanced training more affordable and offering students mr. griffeth mentioned ebay. a complete and competitive google was negative. education from the cradle to the they've turned around. classroom, from college to a career. that's how we'll prepare every child in america, not just some children, but every child in america to outcompete any worker let's go to sharon epperson at the nymex. in the world. >> we're still above $69 a barrel, but the products have come off sharply as well. and, yes, we'll grow our middle there's plenty of supply out class by finally providing quality, affordable health there. we'll probably find that out insurance in this country. later today and tomorrow health care can't wait. morning. expect to see another increase in supplies that are already at their highest levels since 1983. in natural gas, that's the big story. up about 18% in just two day's it can't wait. time. we're only halfway through this trading day. a lot of folks wanting to get back into natural gas. back to you. >> thank you very much. as we all know, it was one if you have fought for this year ago this week that wall street, the world of finance and cause harder -- few have the country changed forever. championed it longer than you, our brothers and sisters in and it has been actions by fdic organized labor. you're making phone calls, among others who have been knocking on doors, showing up at critical lately in keeping the rallies because you know why markets stable throughout this this is so important. crisis. to look at where we stand now, you know this isn't just about the millions of americans who off to maria bartiromo who is don't have health insurance. it's about the hundreds of millions more who do. standing by for an interview americans who worry that they'll with sheila bair. lose their insurance if they >> we are here at the women's lose their job. who fear their coverage will be denied because of a pre-existing business conference and i am condition. who know one accident or illness joined by sheila bair. could mean financial ruin. here we are one year away from in fact, a new report from the kaiser family foundation was that lehman collapse. how would you characterize released today showing that things today? >> it's much more stable. family premiums rose more than liquidity is stable. we still have some challenges to 130% over the last ten years. work through in the banking three times faster than wages. they now average over $13,000 a sector, but we have time to do that. >> the fdic this year alone has year, the highest amount on record, which is why when you go in and negotiate you can't even think about negotiating for a shut down or taken over 92 banks and you really haven't seen such wage increase because the whole talk about it. you're just quietly doing your negotiation is about trying to keep the benefits you already thing. have. that's not just the fault of the how many more are you expecting? employer, it's the fault of a >> we don't make public broken health care system that's sucking up all the money. predictions, but it's going to when are we going to stop it? be a -- if the economy recovers, when are we going to say enough is enough? it will slow down, but that's how many more workers have to lose their coverage? what we're all about. how many more families have to we're about protecting insurers go into the red for a sick loved one? and when they fail, it's really how much longer are we going to have to wait? a non-event and i think that's it can't wait. important for people to understand. >> people are trying to understand how it is the fdic taking over these troubled assets. the lost shares and yields, a bank is teetering, the fdic >> we can't wait! takes it over, but also exposes we can't wait! >> we can't wait! the taxpayers to those losses. >> we can't wait! >> my friends, we have talked you're cov+?í 80% of future losses and now, that reserve this issue to death. fund is down to $10.4 billion. year after year. is that right? >> actually, it's about 42 billion. decade after decade. we cover projected losses over that's why i said last week the next 12 months and after that, 10.4 left. before a joint session of congress, i said the time for they've saved us about $11 bickering is over. the time for games has passed. billion in the past year. now is the time for action. i think what people need to now is the time to deliver on understand is we already have the exposure. health insurance reform. we must cover the insured depos the plan i announced will offer more security and stability to americans who have insurance. it will offer insurance to its. if we sold the assets now in americans who don't, and it will slow the growth of health care costs for families, businesses, and our government. liquid markets and distressed markets, we would take very if you already have health heavy discounts. insurance through your job and by being in loss share, we get because many of you are members of unions, you do, nothing in the intrinsive value of the this plan will require you or your employer to change your loan. we only pay for the actual coverage or your doctor. credit loss. let me repeat, nothing in this we pay over a period of time and plan will require you to change it saves us money. your coverage or your doctor. it doesn't cost us money. what this plan will do is make your insurance work better for >> do you feel that at some point, you'll have to go to you. treasury or economists to get more money? it will be unlawful for >> we have a line of credit, 100 insurance companies to deny you coverage because of a pre-existing condition. billion in place already, with it will be against the law for approval of the fed and insurance companies to drop your treasury. i don't know if we'll have to do coverage when you get sick or water it down when you need it that, i never say never. the most. but we have a variety of tools they won't be able to place some available to us and we have arbitrary cap on how much different options now. coverage you can receive in a we have wide availability to given year or a given lifetime. we'll place a limit on how much assess the industry. we can borrow from the industry, you can be charged for too. out-of-pocket expenses because we'll be dealing with that in the united states of america probably towards the end of the nobody should go broke just because they got sick. month. >> if we keep at this pace, 92 banks already and we're going to see further banks fail, isn't it likely you'll go to treasury to get more money? insurance companies will be >> i think treasury is really required to cover at no extra charge are you teen checkups and driven by our cash provision. preventative care like we can have a negative mammograms and colonoscopies because there's no reason we shouldn't be catching diseases unbalance. paying for losses over a period like breast cancer or colon cancer before they get worse. it makes sense, it saves money, and it will save lives. of time, and there are special so that's what we're offering to people who already have health insurance, more stability and assessments, industry borrowing, there's a lot of the different security. tools we can use to bring inbn) for the tens of millions of americans who don't have health more cash. we'll be deciding towards the insurance, the second part of end of the third quarter what this plan will finally offer we're going to do. what approach we're going to them, offer you, affordable use. >> let me ask about the too big choices. we'll do this with a new insurance exchange, a to fail issue because of course, marketplace where individuals and small businesses, they can this has become somewhat of a lightening rod, too big to fail. shop for affordable health insurance plans that work for but most people would say right them, and because there will be now that given the fact that the one big group, these uninsured government has supported some of americans, they have leverage. they can drive down the cost of the largest banks, we still have care and get a better deal than they're getting right now. institutions out there that are in fact, too big to fail. that's how large companies and would you agree with that? government employees get affordable insurance. it's how everybody in congress, >> i think that is an unfornt including those who are always critical of government, get their insurance. outcome. the too big to fail doctrine, i it's time to give every think frankly helped feed the crisis. opportunity to americans that if investors and creditors think members of congress give to the governments would take the themselves. downside, so they have upside. that fosters additional risk taking. we have to have an exit strategy. a resolution mechanism kin to i have also said one of the what the fdic has for insured options in this exchange should be a public option. now, let me -- banks, it can be closed an [ applause ] shareholders will take losses if the government has to step in. >> how do you eliminate the too let me be clear. big to fail? let me be clear because there's >> with an effective mechanism been a lot of misinformation about here about this. this would just be an option. nobody would be forced to choose you can. you have to have a definite role it. no one with insurance would be in the resolution, but yes, our mechanism works quite well and affected, but what it would do is offer americans more choices we think it can be expanded. and promote real competition and put pressure on private insurers >> let me ask you about the to make their policies recent changes in terms of the affordable and treat their customers better. rules for private equity. we know firms are out there wanting to invest. you opened up an opportunity for when you're talking with some of some of these firms to invest in your friends and neighbors, they might say, well, that all sounds banks, but a lot of pe guys are pretty good but how are you saying, it's not enough. going to pay for it? we want to come in and buy more that's a legitimate question of these banks. what's the problem? because i inherited a $1.3 why not just have private equity trillion deficit when i came firms invest in the banks since we need it any way? into office. that's the other thing people have been a little selective >> we do want them in. about. they don't seem to remember how we got into this mess. on the other hand, they pose but it's a legitimate question, additional risks to us. how are we going to dig a healthy bank buyer will have a ourselves out of this big financial hole we're in? so let me try and answer it. long standing supervisory the plan i'm proposing is going history. a supervisory knowledge of that to cost $900 billion ten years. that's real money. entity and also a balance sheet to back up operations. although that's less than we with private equity funds, they spent on iraq and afghanistan don't have a regulatory history. wars. it's less than the tax cuts for they are not historically bank the wealthiest few americans that congress passed during the buyers and invest in holding administration. wars and tax cuts that were not companies. that's what will have to be used paid for and ballooned our as a source of strength for the deficit to record levels and didn't help america's working families. bank they're acquiring. some additional safeguards on slipping and affiliates of lending activities and i think most of the pe funds i've heard from, they will have to abide by somewhat tighter rules. we won't make that mistake >> you know, i want to ask you again. we will not pay for health about this position that you find yourself in and how tough insurance reform by adding to our deficits. i will not sign a bill that adds is it to ultimately balance a dime to our deficits either overseeing the banks, insuring now or in the future. what we will do is pay for it by they have proper capital, but eliminating hundreds of billions looking at the reserve fund, do of fraud and waste and abuse, including billions of dollars in you need to increase premiums subsidies for insurance from the banks. companies that pad their profits we'll get to that on "power but aren't improving care. lunch." thank you so much for joining us today. back to you, bill. >> thank you very much. we'll also set up a commission you folks should know, we've of doctors and medical experts been spending the morning on to encourage the adoption of this article. common sense best practices that he recounts last year at this can further reduce costs and time, those eight days that raise quality in the years changed the world and listening ahead. that's how we'll pay for most of to their discussion just now, this plan, by using money that's it's all about expectations and already been spent in the health care system, but spent badly. so don't pay attention to those scary stories about how medicare transparency. we didn't know last year at this benefits will be cut. time how bad things were. that will never happen on my now, we have a better sense. watch. we will protect medicare so it's with the fdic chair sitting a safety net for our seniors that they can count on today, there say, yeah, we're going to have more banks fail, but at tomorrow, forever, not a dollar least we know the parameters at from the medicare trust fund will be used to pay for this this point. plan. >> and where the money's going no the a -- not a single dollar. to come from and how much they have access to. >> she believes an effective resolution can be put in place because a lot of people have said, how do you shut down a these are the reforms i'm business that operates in 171 proposing. these are the reforms labor has countries, can it even be done. been championing. these are the reforms the >> a precedent for it though, going back 20 years. we'll get to that later. american people need. these are the reforms i intend when we come back, forget to sign into law. about cash for clunkers. quality affordable health insurance, a world class think cash for class. education, good jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced, a we're going to the frankfurt strong labor movement. that's how we'll lift up auto show. also this hour, ben bernanke hard-working families. that's how we'll grow our middle says the recession technically class. is over, so are things getting that's how we'll put opportunity within reach in the united states of america. the battle for opportunity has always been fought in places better because of obamanomics? like pittsburgh, places like pennsylvania. and then get ready for the it was here that pittsburgh rail workers rose up in a great "fast money halftime report." we're back in two minutes here on "power lunch." strike. it was here that home stead steel workers took on pinkerton guards at carnegie mills. it was here that something happened in a town called all allah -- alaquippa. labor had no rights. the foreman's whim ruled the day and the company hired workers from different lands and 7 different races the better to when it comes to pain relievers, keep them divided it was thought at the time. but despite threats and you should know, bayer aspirin is one of most studied, harassment, despite seeing organizers fired and driven out most trusted, anti-fever, anti-inflammatory, of town, these steel workers and anti-pain medications in the world. came together, serb and croat, from pain killer to life saver, bayer aspirin is the wonder drug that works wonders. italian and pole and irish and greek and kin of alabama slaves and son of pennsylvania coal miners, and they took their case all the way to the supreme court securing the right to organize up and down the ohio river valley and all across america. and i know that if america could come together like alaquippa and rise above barriers of faith and race and region and party, then we will not only make life better for steel workers like steve in indiana, not only make life better for members of the afl-cio, but we will make possible the dreams of middle class families and make real the promise of the united states of america for everybody. that's what we're fighting for. that's what this white house is committed to. that's what the afl-cio is committed to, and arm in arm we are going to get this done. i got a question for you. are you fired up? are you ready to go? are you fired up? are you ready to go? let's go get this done. thank you, everybody. god bless you. >> wow. >> a remarkable moment in the progression, the journey that has been this health care reform debate for months now in this country. what started as a speech to a labor union there during the afl-cio's annual convention turned into a good old-fashioned revival meeting, if you will, a health care -- what do you want to call this? >> it sounds to me like a campaign speech all over again. >> very much was a campaign speech. and when you coupled this, we just learned that the president is planning to appear on all four of the sunday morning television shows to talk health care reform. he will be the sole guest monday as the auto industry recovers, the biggest car makers night on the david letterman are gathering in germany for the show to talk about health care reform. john harwood is back in front of the camera here. it is clear now, john, that the frankfurt auto show to show off their latest products. strategy on the part of the administration when it comes to that's where we find phil lebeau health care is to take this debate now to the people and get with the ceo of dime lehr. them to talk to their members of congress. >> john? >> for the first time in at least a year, there's a sense of >> there's nothing to take a politician and put him in the right frame of mind than to go optimism, that's the worst had out among his supporters and get passed, correct? >> i think that's right. outside of washington where you've got all this endless haggling and bargaining with it pends on american economics. politicians in both parties and to get to your base where they're totally fired up, and i'm confident we will see a long michelle is right, it was a and slow, but consistent campaign speech. and he's in a campaign that's recovery. >> your sales are down roughly tougher than the one to elect 24, 25% in the united states. himself. when you look at the next six for presidents pushing policies is much more difficult because it's complicated. months, how much do we see sales you've got lobbyists, you have start to build here? special interests. when you're in a campaign, you're selling yourself, and now >> on a year over year barack obama is using all the comparison, i do believe that we skills he used to sell himself to try to sell his program. >> do you think it will work? how will this play? will come into one-digit >> well, i think it's going to work in the sense that i have always thought he's going to get declines soon. a package and i have lately but on the absolute level, i'm thought he was going to get a pack oge embodying most of the convinced that we at mercedes, principles he's outlined for health care. >> this runs exactly will be driven by new products, diametrically opposite to the namely the e-class and it's town hall meetings we saw in august when all the members of variations which have come to congress went home to their markets now. districts and the debate that >> clearly cash for clunkers, ensued at that time against health care reform and now you not for the typical mercedes have the president taking it buyer. it churned the market. brought people into it and they obviously to an audience that's started looking and that willing to hear -- a sympathetic ultimately helped everybody. audience -- did you notice the same thing? >> is your question is this going to get these people out to the congressman to support >> yes, but that was july and health care reform? >> does it sway opinion in the other direction the way those august and we can only judge town hall meetings seemed to september, october. what i hear so far is that the sway it in one direction against health care reform? >> i would say, bill, i think expectation for september are the picture we saw sometimes on not great. >> so we're paying the price our television screens of those town halls did not reflect all right now, which was expected. >> this is the same story the town halls that were happening. everywhere you do it. we were all focused, as we tend >> when you look around this to do in television, on conflict, on the loudest voices, show here, you have got a that sort of thing, and many of plug-in 500 that you showed. the people who were those loud the electric vehicle, almost voices, were not people who were ever prospective supporters for barack obama, but, look, he's every automaker has an electric trying to grow more supporters vehicle that's coming. do you see that we have just as he did in the campaign and figure out ways to at least about turned the corner where counteract those images and get we're going to see those people fired up and talking to vehicles roll out? mare members of congress. >> yes. i don't speculate. >> could this backfire on him? i know about mercedes, so we >> that's what i was going to say. could it aillienate some people? already have quite a number of electric cars in the marketplace. we will have more than a thousand electric mercedes cars >> is this going to help him or next we're. hurt him? we are very much going after the >> i don't really see the substance of the technology, reception itself as coming owning a battery companies across to people watching ourselves having a share in a television as anything american cell company, being part applauding people. shareholder of teflar, so we are i don't think labor unions are especially popular at the moment. anytime a president has got serious. crowds cheering what he says, >> you know what the critics that's a good thing and they'd rather have that than the alternative. i'm not sure people are going to will say. as long as gas remains cheap, it's going to be tough to sell a focus on who is that applauding high volume of electric him, it's labor unions. >> to play devil's advocate, it vehicles. >> at that point of time, nobody did have a revival feel f you're will make money with this. kind of stuck in the middle if tomorrow, gas prices go up here, i would think it might alienate some people. it might make people a little and -- so we have to prepare and nervous about the way the message is being delivered. >> it sort of depends on where develop the technology for the you are. certainly, if you are in the -- customer. then adjust to the current in new york city on wall street, situation. >> real quick. in places where -- you know, the give me a year when you think kind of people who watch our you make money of electric network and that we're oriented vehicles. >> i think nobody will do that towards, they're people who don't feel that kindly about in the next five years, then we labor unions and they might tend to recoil instinctively at the will. >> the ceo joining us. idea of the president getting it's going to take a while, but cheered by them. i don't think most people around the country have quite that same electric vehicles, they are reaction. >> john, thanks very much. coming. >> thank you very much, phil. the president continues to shake it's trench warfare on wall hands there in pittsburgh. street today. >> september 15th, 1:49 p.m., no sectors moving up or down medicare will not be cut on my more than 1% or so, but what who watch. we're going to save that. are the winners? >> we're going to say good-bye. and we have some 52-week we'll see you tomorrow on "power lunch." "street signs" with erin burnett highs. is coming up after this. google is down a fraction. stay with us. apple and motorola at new yearly highs. back with more "power lunch" after this. could someone toss me an eleven sixteenths wrench over here? here you go. eleven sixteenths... (announcer) from designing some of the world's cleanest and most fuel-efficient jet engines... to building more wind turbines than anyone in the country... the people of ge are working together... creating innovation today for america's tomorrow. thanks! no problem! so, what's the problem? these are hot. we're shipping 'em everywhere. but we can't predict our shipping costs. dallas. detroit. different rates. well with us, it's the same flat rate. same flat rate. boston. boise? same flat rate. alabama. alaska? with priority mail flat rate boxes from the postal service. if it fits, it ships anywhere in the country for a low flat rate. dude's good. dude's real good. dudes. priority mail flat rate boxes only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship. some green arrows on wall street today. not by much, but good enough. the dow jones is up almost 18 points. the nasdaq is up as well. it was one year ago on this date that things got uglugly. we look back on september 15th of 2008. it was a monday and that was the day we were dealing with the aftermath of lehman brother's collapse. the dow fell 4.4% and would fall 7% in just three days. it was a beginning of a calamitous period. let's get to matt nesto. what's moving today? >> we got a stalemate on our hands here. that move for the s&p 500, really hard to get excited about. it really, a year that has been full of so many big percentage gains. these rate of change, so what we've seen is a slowing in the rate of change, of the rate of change, if you will. if you want to get crazy about it. the best sectors today by far, the only one is up more than 1%, is the materials led by about a 4% gain. there's a s&p sandwich in the middle. on the bottom is the 3/4 of a percent in consumer staples. other than that, it's crickets all around as we digest what the president said yesterday, that's helping the banks because you know, the guy's got a full plate, the last time i checked. and the truth of the matter is, taking on the most sweeping financial regulatory reform since the great depression is going to be hard to do and some of the investors thinking it's not going to be so crazy. coamerica is up. it's at a ten-month high. a new recovery high is the language that's going to be used. zions bank has had a hard time. it's still down 2%. and p and c financial, the ceo saying we are cautious, but there are reasons to be optimistic. moody's strongly disagreeing with a very ominous forecast for the banking sector. lastly, i present to you, the secret service. they're busy lately, aren't they? this is the consumer service sector, industry groups, excuse me. it's part of the discretionary sector. applebees being upgraded. we have a carnival cruise line and royal cruise line, i don't know how the bank got in there with those guys. but i would tell you that carniv carnival, cracker barrel and domino's pizza are all very, very strong in an otherwise quiet market. >> i love cracker barrel. it is the only restaurant you can get turnip greens. you should try them, melissa. >> i eat dumplings at cracker barrel. that's their most popular dish. straight ahead, the biggest jump in three years. the economy turning the corner, but are things getting better because of obamanomics or the good, old fashioned business cycle? get ready for the "fast money halftime report" with the dumpling herself. well, the stocks may be flat lining, but general electric making another explosive move today. the real story, plus, how to trade it. also, we'll talk to dr. j. he'll be talking casino stocks. but first, more "power lunch" right after this. national car rental knows i'm picky. so, at national, i go right past the counter... and you get to choose any car in the aisle. choose any car? you cannot be serious! okay. seriously, you choose. go national. go like a pro. bull market or bear, traders are always hungry for ideas. trading is all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. twenty five hundred stocks... one quick look. that's where the action is. plus, this amazing gadget... it's called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategy... anything. td ameritrade. built by traders, for traders. this is what i need. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days, plus get 100 dollars cash, when you open an account. [screeching] [dejectedly] oh. [screeching] [barks] (man) if you think about it, this is what makes the ladders different from other job-search sites. [screeching] we only work with the big talent. [all coughing] welcome to the ladders-- a premium job site for only $100k-plus jobs and only $100k-plus talent. new york stock exchange this afternoon confirming the death of one of its board members, james mcdonald, the president and ceo of rockefeller and company. authorities in massachusetts where he was found sunday afternoon are investigating the death as a possible suicide. mcdonald was on the board of the new york stock exchange, formerly on the board of cip. he was scheduled to appear at the conference in washington tomorrow on transparency and global finance. in a profile in december of last year, he said the toughest part of getting to where he was today, his challenge was to avoid complacency. we won't speculate on the reason for this death, but authorities are investigating as a possible suicide and the nyc has issued a statement expressing condolen s condolences. james mcdonald, dead at 56 years old. new data shows that americans are growing less supportive of president obama's handling of the economy. a poll shows the president's lead over the gop on this topic, it's up to only 11 points. he used to lead by 37. this comes on the day when fed chief ben bernanke says technically, the recession may have ended. why is the economy improving? is it president obama's economic measures on the turn around in the business cycle? firing off are our strategists. you guys know how it works. you get 20 seconds to make your case. >> a combination of both, but you have to give barack obama credit. i'll give george bush credit as well. had we not had the t.a.r.p. and the stimulus and cash for clunkers and other measures that have helped this economy, we'd be talking about the great depression right now. number two. and the bottom line is that of course, obama has intervened in the economy for the good. >> in all those polls, you'd see another question. the more you hear about the policies, the less you like it. in health care, in energy, across the board. the fact of the matter is this economy's been through the ringer. inventories, jobs. it shrunk enough and what goes down must come up. obamanomics hasn't taken affect yet and thank goodness. >> when it does, it is going to help our hurt? >> you're going to see higher taxes on benefits and cuts in benefits to seniors. if he gets his energy policies, we'll have all kinds of higher costs associated with our use of energy. you saw the tire deal yesterday. protecti protectionism is antigrowth. >> if i can just not even get into all the representations, we'll stick to the economy -- >> wait a minute, you guys have talked about -- >> terry, let me finish. the economy had it not been for the stimulus, economists agree that about 2.3% of the gdp has gone up thanks to stimulus measures in the second quarter. even the chamber of commerce, which is no ally to the democratic party -- >> they endorsed the stimulus package. >> even the chamber, which is be no means a democratic front, has said the stimulus has contributed to the fact we're in a recovery. >> it's propped up state government budgets through its spending on medicaid and education funding. there have been things it's done, but it didn't put this economy back on its feet. american business and american workers have. at least temporarily. >> if you can put this whole thing about american business and workers aside -- >> jingoism? >> it's a very nice to throw out things like american workers and american business -- >> president obama did it this morning when speaking to union workers. >> terry, won't you agree -- >> hold on. julie, you used to word, so let's get to it. president obama said keep iing american jobs right here in america. >> i'm also asking terry to list specifics. it's nice to throw out words like american workers, but why don't we talk about the fact that there's 10,000 more, or over 100,000 new jobs thanks to the stimulus, more americans are put to work because these programs. >> unemployment is at 9.7%. but i'll give you a couple of examples. if you're in a congressional district where obama won in the presidential election, you are more likely to get some stimulus money through the transportation department than if you voted for the republican candidate, but that's not really the kind of stimulus this economy needs. we need people to invest and save and grow this economy. the government isn't going to be able to rescue the united states of america's economic problems. >> i find it interesting it's obama's credit. thank you. >> i always say we can go at a commercial break. don't miss tonight's special on cnbc. among the special guests, warren buffett. that's tonight, 8:00 p.m. when we come back, we'll go inside the financials. some of the most important players inside the sector are pe speaking at the barclay's conference. and the behind the scenes stories of the days that shook wall street. james stewart will tell you what happened when the biggest guns in that world tried to save the financial system. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 if i'm breathing, i'm thinking about trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i always have my eye out for a stock on the move. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 doesn't matter if a company sells computer chips tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 or, i don't know, fish and chips. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i'll look at all kinds of stocks before i settle on one. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 if i think i'm onto something i'll check it out, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know, see what other traders are up to. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when everything feels right though, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that's when i get serious. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the minute i get into something, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i already know when i want to get out. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 of course, every now and then i'll talk with somebody tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 who knows what i'm trying to do. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 (announcer) switch to schwab today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you'll get the tools, the technology tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the support to trade your way. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 go to schwab.com/trader tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 or call 1-800-540-7304 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 right now. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 but opportunities can vanish like that... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...so most days, i'm right there tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when the market opens. was it really for fun, or to save money on heat? why? don't you think nordic tuesday is fun? oh no, it's fun... you know, if you are trying to cut costs, fedex can help. we've got express options, fast ground and freight service-- you can save money and keep the heat on. great idea. that is a great idea. well, if nordic tuesday wasn't so much fun. (announcer) we understand. you need to save money. fedex ♪ yes, you're lovely... ♪ what do you think? hey, why don't we use our points from chase sapphire and take a break? we can't. sure, we can. the points don't expire... ♪ there is nothing for me... ♪ there's no travel restrictions... we could leave tomorrow. we can't use them for a vacation. you can use the points for just about anything. i know... ♪ the way you look tonight ♪ chase what matters. get your new chase sapphire card at chase.com/sapphire. i'm mary thompson in new york city. the barclay's financial services conference is going on and inside, a standing room only crowd. morgan stanley's soon to be ceo is addressing a very interested group of investors on the company he will start running as of january 1st of next year. he told the crowd it was a great honor to be named ceo and also addressed experiences on his end. >> much has been said about my particular background and whether that implies a buyer for this company in one direction or another. it does not. morgan stanley's roots are a security's business. >> other comments made, the environment is improving and should stabilize in 2010. he is talking about that joint venture morgan has with citi and he says they are expecting pre-tax margins to be reached in 2011 along with cost savings. he said the onflow of financial advisers has stabilized. later today, we are going to have comment from other cfos including jpmorgan. back to you. >> you know, this is a much better time frame to become the ceo of morgan stanley than last year. >> everyone has mentioned that. they say, when we were talk b at this last year, and this used to be a lehman conference, keep in mind. to that end, there were some other interesting comments from other banks that presented, most notably on the t.a.r.p. couple of different comment from suntrust, who says they want to repay and pmc saying they're going to hold on to it because of a double dip. >> yikes. still ahead, the president and the unions. plus, the long view of the markets for folks behind the stock traders almanac. "fast money halftime report" coming up looking at technology. we'll see you at the top of the hour. esesesesesesesesesesesesess we're getting to the heart of the action. markets on today, but we've got advancers in the sector's leverage to the economy. on the backs of words from ben bernanke, the recession is likely over. let's get to our crew. pete, i want to start with you because you were talking as early as last week about the notion that industrials were going to be the next leadership group and this is the sector that has held up pretty well over the past few sessions. seems like this would be good news if you believe the markets are basing here close to 2009 highs. >> right. we're always looking for who's going to be the leadership. we kept talk about financials. we have to give credit to goldman sachs. they talked about ge, many of the different names. talk a look at some of these multinationals that have the exposure in the industrial space. we're looking for leadership. we've got it now and that's moving us higher. look at the activity in ge. the options activity is incredible and we're on pace for a pretty strong day in the options world. we're nearly 10 million contracts right now. >> it is an amazing move and ge up. christopher, yesterday, you had ge up and you were watching closely at the 1505 level. why is that? >> we've run into the $15 level three or four different times. we got through 1505 and it took the stock up to 15.5 skvery quickly. >> so if you're looking to get into it, should you be concerned it is going to be a short squeeze? >> it's a combination of both. the fundamentals may show themselves lart, but the stock broke out at this tight range. it's probably got more room to run even though it's up a little bit, probably more than it should in the last 48 hour. >> patricia, put the pieces together. ge was up -- of nbc universal in the 2010. but patricia, if you add this together in terms of the spending outlook, retail sales data we got today, is this a good environment for the retail stock, more bullish? >> i'm not bullish on the retail stocks. i do think we're seeing more advertising coming back. >> we're hearing it at comcast. what you have to worry about is not so much what's coming u out of the corporation, but really what the consumer has to spend and that is still not good. jeffrey's came out today and said they're looking at going short, the higher beta names and long, the lower beta names, like a walmart. >> you've been looking at the charts and relationships to their retail etf. >> this plays into perfectly what patty was talking about about. the rth really tends to magnify the moves in retail. only up about 4% since march. they've already seen a lot of moves based in here. if retail continues up -- if you're trying to be smart and protect, maybe it's time to move into the low beta like walmart or target. >> let's talk about the financials trading lower today led by jpmorgan. this was all part of the master trust status, which was released basically monthly. capital one financial is really taking it on the chin. although it saw a decline in august, it did get a downgrade because there are concerns that the business model won't be able to return back to edwards, do t they're being a little bit too harsh on capital one financial in terms of putting the nail in the coffin there? >> look at what the consumer is dealing with. foreclosures are sitting at 18,000 a day. you're going to pay your mortgage before you pay your credit card and we know the consumers are overleveraged. i think you have to be cautious about these consumer finance stocks at this point. >> christopher, i had the pleasure of speaking to you yesterday. in that interview you said you were long the too big to fail sort of financials. which ones specifically. does this news out of citi that potentially they're getting the government off their backs, positive? >> we're not short those. we are short reasonable financials. we believe thor going much lower. we think the news of citi is a positive, but short-term it will be a negative. that sale of a big block of stocks will have to go somewhere. >> pete, what do you make of that citi news? >> well, i would agree. i think we had that big dash. obviously citi was one of the names we brought up time and time again. fannie, freddie, some had a really significant move. we're not seeing a complete dissemination to the downside. i this i going back to jpmorgan, it does show you people want to own this stock. it was going down early because of some of that data from the master trust and then they started to buy it right back again. the stock's nearly flat on the day after what could be interpreted to be negative news. it looks like the buyers are still out there and they still want to be in some of these great names. >> shares of yahoo!, the company, getting an upgrade. price at $21. that happened yesterday after the close actually. we're also watching shares of ebay because that is sitting close to 52-week highs. pete, you follow these names pretty closely. we were talking about the yahoo! upgrade yesterday. you have been a fan of this stock recently. >> right. absolutely. and the reason being because i think a lot of whatever was negative out there in the stock was already baked in. i thought there was a lot more upside. i still continue to believe so. i like this upgrade we got out of bernstein, and ebay is the same story. these are stocks that if you're relying, and patty brought up the ad buying, the one place we're seeing a bit of recovery is the ad display area on the internet stocks. you're getting some return from the auto industry, some from the financials, some possibly from other areas, but you have to like the momentum. the deal that was done with microsoft, i think it's going to work, and, again, it's not a search company when you're talking about yahoo! it's much, much more. >> jared, you wanted to get in? >> just real quick, on ebay, i think ebay has some upgrade potential. i think it looks good going into the holiday season. we're a little above the band. i would probably like to see that stock retrace $2 or $3 and then look for your entry. >> if i'm looking at ebay over amazon, in the past month ebay has outperformed amazon quite nicely. what do you like better going into the holiday season? >> that's a tough one. you know, ebay is doing some phenomenal things. we have actually got their own top designer line coming out so they're being very inventive and i think that's good, but i think going into the holiday season you have to bet on amazon. they have the breadth ebay doesn't have. >> got to take a quick break right now. on tonight's "fast money," former new york superintendent eric denalo joins us to talk about the future of regulation. coming up, talking about what the past is predicting about the future. others were delirious with credit profit, he saw it coming. one year after wall street stared in the abyss, one of the top soothe sayers on what's next for the banks. while aig teetered on the brink, he was on the front lines working to keep the insurance giant afloat. in a moshth roarket roiled by uncertainty, will new regs put the insurers in good hands. plus her hedge fund weathered the funds. it's the chairwoman's lesson from lehman. every head. every bite. every gallon. every shoe. every book. every cereal. well, maybe not every cereal. but every stem. every stitch. every tune. every toy. pretty much everything you buy can help your savings account grow because keep the change from bank of america rounds up every debit card purchase to the next dollar and transfers the difference from your checking to savings account. it's one of the many ways we make saving money in tough times a whole lot easier. to its employee storbenefits package at no direct cost to the company... it was a perfect fit. find out more at aflac!... ...forbusiness.com welcome back to the "fast money" halftime report. time for your "power lunch" trade to go. we will bring in dr. j. dr. j, i am going to call you the dealer. we are talking casino stocks. a nice move overall for the group. if you have been in this group on the way up and you're trying to decide whether or not to use options to protect yourself, dr. j. we have to understand what the volatility is in these names to understand the pricing. what have you seen? >> you're absolutely right. thank you, melissa. the stocks have been on fire. a lot of that momentum coming from wynn getting the approval and going to be going ahead with this october offering of $1 billion offering over in hong kong. but if you look at the volatilities and look at lvs, las vegas sands, a great operator, or steve wynn, of course, the premiere operator in vegas, these voluatilities are less than half of what they were. it's extreme lly cheap to prote yourself. they're filling up rooms, now they have to move the rates of the rooms up and the people filling the rooms have to go to the gambling tables rather than just going shopping in las vegas, but all of that is beginning to occur. you've seen the analysts turn positive and like i say, and you correctly called it, the volatilities are very low. makes the opportunity to buy a put a very attractive opportunity right here. >> thank you so much. let's call the close. do you buy or sell going into 4:00 p.m.? before we do this, the dow at session highs. so we're going to be the abbreviated version. pete, i will ask you. >> you got to buy it. why fight the trend? it's up, continues to go up, i look at my portfolio, i'm mostly long so i have it buy it. >> thanks to the traders. on tonight's "fast money," one of the few who saw it coming tells us what the future holds for the ratings agencies. "power lunch" has instant reaction to the president's speech on jobs and the economy, too. what else are you watching? >> we will be, of course, watching the markets. then at 1:00 p.m., mr. bernanke says recession is technically over. we'll talk about that. steve liesman is with us. 1:15 positioning your portfolio for the bernanke bounce, if that's what we're seeing. and at 1:30 p.m. saving the u.s. financial system. a fascinating read. we'll tell you all about it. >> this is cnbc.com news now. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke says the recession is probably over from a technical standpoint but the economy will continue to feel weak for some time to come. president obama tells ohio workers u.s. automakers are getting, quote, back into the game with help from washington. and bank of america's cfo says the bank is doing, quote, everything we can to repay its t.a.r.p. loans. that's cnbc.com news now. we're first in business worldwide. i'm courtney reagan. welcome back, hour number two of "power lunch" continues now for this tuesday. i'm bill griffeth. stocks are, as melissa pointed out, trying to gain some momentum at this hour. back to the closing high for the day right now. we've got awe also with a host of big caps. new 52-week highs. goldman sachs, google, apple among those right now. we're all watching those. >> i'm sue herera. the fed chairman says the recession is likely over. so for stock traders, what's the trade right now and what can the past tell us about what the future holds? the editors at the stock traders almanac will be here to tell us. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. james stewart, one of the greatest financial writers of all time, will join us. we're so excited. he has this cover article in the latest "new yorker" where he goes into the most important week since the great depression. great read. this is a guy who did den of thieves. this is frightening, also fresh. a lot of new stuff we didn't know. >> you thought he was good at mr. smith goes to washington. wait until you see what he's written in the "new yorker." plus, the president is getting ready to speak about jobs and the economy and health care reform. we'll take that for you live as soon as it all begins. >> he's in pittsburgh at the afl-cio convention for that. we're joined by our power player today, joe is with us in studio. how have you been j.j.? >> i'm good, thanks for having me on. >> we've been waiting for a decline in september of substance. that was the fear, that was what the markets seemed to be anticipating in august. and it hasn't happened. >> it hasn't happened at all. i think, you know, as we look forward, we have exploration week coming on this week. we thought we'd get a truer picture, but volume has been really light also i think which has been a real surprise to everybody. >> everybody is walking on egg shells. >> there's so much in flux right now in terms of government regulations and things like that. i think even the high frequency traders are a little afraid right now as to what regulations are going to come down. i think that's affecting what's going on. everybody is a little bit close to the vest on their positions. >> we'll talk about that coming up. also going to talk about the fed chief, ben bernanke, who says now one year later the recession is very likely over, but he didn't exactly give it the all-clear sign for the american economy. so here to help us understand what exactly he did say and what it means is our senior economics reporter steve liesman. >> you know, think of this like a political economy comment that he made. he went further than he has in the past declaring the recession is likely over adding from a technical standpoint. when you hear what he said, it was almost an afterthought to his main warning of a lackluster recovery. >> even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was. >> so with unemployment expected to remain high, remember, it's 9.7%, could run higher, the chairman's main message here not that it's over, but it's not going to feel much like a recovery even though the academics at the national bureau of economic research may meet and declare it over. the technical end of the prior two recessions has not meant much of anything for monetary policy. the feds didn't stop cutting rates, cutting rates until 19 months after the end of the '91 recession and 20 months after the end of the '01 recession. and you can see in both cases they went into a period of neutral. this time around it could be just as long if not longer. we did get some positive economic data that reinforces the expectation for positive growth in the third quarter in the form of retail sales up 2.7%. take out autos, which is a good sign up 1.1%. certainly swear with the july swoon. what economists like is generally that it was broad based. wasn't just cash for clunkers and wasn't just back-to-school texas holiday stuff. gasoline was up, and electronics up 1.1%. also the best sign there, the department stores up 2.4%. put it all together into the pot suggests the economy is on track to grow 3% to 3.5% this quarter that. would be the first growth we've had since the second quarter of 2008. but with the major question being whether consumers will retrench again in the fourth quarter. just because we got a couple questions answered, doesn't mean there aren't very important remaining questions. >> of course, but what about the psychological impact of the fact that the fed chief, even if it is going to feel, you know, like we're still kind of mired, isn't there a psychological boost? >> i think you're right on that. i think you create a sort of cycle here, okay, things are not going down anymore. at least i know as a business what i have is what i got at least, and at least from here there's upside would could propel people at the margin to either, a, do a little business spending or more importantly, b, at least not fire anymore. >> j.j., doesn't this confirm what maybe the market has already been telling us. we kept hearing this is the rally that gets no respect. even if it's only a technical end to the recession and still going to feel painful, that's at least the first starting point. has the market been telling us this has been coming? >> i think the stock market certainly has. part of it, steve knows the bond market so well, the bond market has a little bit also. i found it interesting the bond market had no major reaction. the bond market didn't react at all to anything really on this. >> i think the best support in answer to your question, j.j., the best support is a 0.096 yield on the one-month. there's tremendous amounts of money that probably wants to be in stocks or riskier assets and currently is not. >> thank you, steve. >> pleasure. >> see you later. bill, as you mentioned, he's on a day long swing throughout the midwest to talk about jobs and the economy, and the news from his speech in ohio earlier today was not anything about policy proposals. it was really his attitude because he told those workers there in fighting on their behalf, he won't back down. >> i want you to deliver a message to the gmt members who are manning the line and couldn't join us today. as long as you have an ounce of fight left in you, i have a ton of fight left in me. i have said it before, i'm skinny, but i'm tough, and as long as i have the privilege of being your president, i'm going to keep fighting for a future that is brighter for this community and brighter for ohio and brighter for the united states of america. >> reporter: a little different tone than he struck yesterday when he was in federal hall in new york. there just the applause was skinny. it wasn't about toughness. it wasn't about feistiness, and what he's doing now is trying to go out and really pep up his base. later today he will be talking to the afl-cio. they're critical to helping him get his agenda in congress, in particular health care and one of the things you need to do when you're president obama is keep labor fired up even though, guys, the public option that labor wants seems to be fading as a front and center option in health care, michelle. >> what a difference, last year at this time if george bush spoke to those two constituents he probably would have gotten the applause from wall street and not the unions, if in fact he went to speak to the unions. and a year latary democratic president is hailed as a hero at a general motors plant. >> exactly. george w. bush got a pretty nice slap on the back reception when he went on the floor of the stock exchange, something president obama did not do yesterday. >> john, thanks very much. while everyone is talking about the failure of lehman brothers a year ago, another event one day later was perhaps a sign of things to come. tomorrow the one-year anniversary of aig. charlie gasparino broke that story one year ago tomorrow. why is this bigger than lehman. >> aig's bailout, that's what we're talking about. >> it wasn't in the intro but yes. >> sorry, i left that out. >> oh, details. >> details, details. here is an interesting thing, michelle, you know because you were covering it with me at the time, pre-aig's bailout, the sort of regulatory framework was to let these guys fail. you had the bear stearns situation where they arranged a sale to jpmorgan chase and then after that you had public outcry, political outcry that we're bailing out these bad guys on wall street and essentially hank paulson, ben bernanke, tim geithner, the new york fed president, went back and allowed lehman brothers to fail. and the systemic risk that that took on coupled with the fact that you had aig sitting there with all those sort of credit default swaps and they had to make -- and they were having collateral calls, that was the next systemic risk that they were dealing with -- >> and far bigger. >> and far bigger, and they did a 180. i think people forget the significance of that 180. it went from we are not bailing out anybody, to now we are now bailing out company that is are systemically important, and look what happened after aig? you had aig, the t.a.r.p. remember, i broke the story a couple days later. first they were going to buy the toxic assets. and then you had the bailout of the automakers and then another bailout of citigroup. you had another citigroup of bank of america. >> aig gave lie to what they had said about lehman brothers which is we don't have authority. but the fact is they didn't have authority with aig but they did it anyway. >> it changed it to too big to fail. >> wasn't it the fallout from lehman? if lehman didn't happen db. >> maybe aig doesn't happen? how does he know that? >> if they had let it fail and we hadn't seen how horrendous the aftermath was -- >> if we allowed aig and lehman to fail, who knows what would have happened. i will say this, i tell you we really should get our hands around this because it set the regulatory tone that is still going on. when i broke the aig story, i did a photo with mark haines where i said bailout is back on the table and it was such a big event. the markets went up. i think they went up pretty significantly. we did something on "the call." you might have been on the thing where colleagues of mine were questioning my reporting. they were like, no, that's not what we're -- i think david said he wasn't hearing this. steve was saying the same thing, they were basically throwing cold water on my report because it was such a radical 180 because the concept of bailing out a company like this was so huge, and they did bail it out. >> and everything was moving so, so fast. >> everything was moving so fast. later in the day they did bail it out. what was fascinating about that, and this made passing the t.a.r.p. so difficult, is after they bailed out aig if you remember, the markets were still bad. do you remember how bad they were on wednesday? >> terrible. >> and then that's where -- i talk about this -- >> j.j., our guest wants to get in here. >> how are you. i have one question for you, and that is wasn't aig really the most key one they had to bail out eventually because, you know, lehman, obviously it led -- but because aig was so involved in the credit swaps everywhere that that market would have completely -- the spreads got bad but they would have completely collapsed without them. >> here is the thing, this is what makes it such a difficult thing for bernanke and paulson and everybody. it's hard to parse what's more important. this is a fast-moving situation. they're all systematically important. i can't tell you if aig is more important than leman brothers. but the aig bailout is a seminal event not just for all the reasons i pointed to, but it gave some credence to a conspiracy theory that, you know, there -- maybe not so much a conspiracy theory. that there was an inside game where certain firms get preferential treatment. they let lee mon go. they bail out aig which to this day goldman sachs says their positions were hedged. i don't think anybody believes goldman was completely hedged on their aig ex pposure. >> who were the counter parties on that edge? >> of course. it's ridiculous. they can keep saying it all they want. the only people that leave them is probably lloyd blankfein. nobody else believes this garbage. when that happened when they bailed out aig and i believe bailed out goldman sachs, that gave the sort of credence about wall street being an insider game and it fueled a lot of this class warfare that goes on right now. some of it justified, i believe, some of it not, but this is a key event. it occurred tomorrow, and you forgot to show my book and remind people that all this will be played out in my book. >> it's called -- thank you for the segwuesegue, charlie. it's called "the sellout." i look forward to my autographed copy in my mailbox, hint, hint. don't miss tonight's special on cnbc, one year later, the road to recovery. billionaire warren buffett, find out what he's saying about the outlook for the financials, the markets, and the economy. that's tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern time only on cnbc. investors no doubt happy to see the dow around 9600 again, but where is the volume that makes believers out of some of those investors? what does bernanke calling an end to the recession mean for the stock market? we'll have some answers on that on the other side of the break coming up. >> tech stocks have been on the move. a sampling here. all in the green. we're back in a minute. well, a lot of people were anticipating a lackluster summer volume to pick up once again once we got into september. hasn't happened. let's talk to j.j. about that. it's something that has you puzzled right now. >> absolutely. we touched on it at the beginning of the show. people are a little afraid to make any type of commitment. as bill said earlier, we have seen before september and october markets a lot of times tend to go to the downside, but outside of that people are so confused with all the news that's coming out and thing like that. we're talking about regulations from a year ago. you know what happened a year ago, and some of the regulation that is have come in since. i think one of the things people are nervous about is what may nom forwa come forward. >> what potholes are you looking for? what could happen down the road that would keep people -- >> number one, the retail investor i think is nervous because they lost a lot of money last year. because of t tthey're getting back in slowly. we're starting to see as a retail firm we're starting to see that pick up a little bit. in terms of the overall -- the bigger firms, again, i think they're a little bit on egg shells as to what they can do. a few of the big investment firms that don't have to -- let's just say because they have government backing, their risk is in a little different place than the rest of us. they're starting to dominate a bit more of the trade but they don't have the counter parties. >> how much is there a possibility that september becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy? we know that september is historically the worst month. everybody gets nervous. maybe they sell and then it becomes the worst month. >> but if you look at what the market, the vix, things like that, they're not actually telling us that. >> the vix is way down. >> the vix is down just above the 23 level, which is historically still fairly high, but if you take the last year it's very, very much on the low end. >> 85, right. >> we're testing on the s&p levels that i think people didn't think we would test for a couple more years. as you said, this is the rally that gets no respect. >> coming up, home depot is teaming up with martha stewart and "mad money" has an exclusive interview with charles kopelman. >> time for the long view from the guy who is know. how is the second half of september shaping up and what about october? yale and jeff hirsch from the stock traders almanac will take a deep dive, tell you what happens to stocks when a recession ends. another "power lunch" exclusive coming up. in just a few minutes the fed chief says the recession is over. what will the president tell the afl-cio in just a few minutes? live coverage when we come back. i just want fewer pills and relief that lasts all day. take 2 extra strength tylenol every 4 to 6 hours?!? taking 8 pills a day... and if i take it for 10 days -- that's 80 pills. just 2 aleve can last all day. perfect. choose aleve and you can be taking four times... fewer pills than extra strength tylenol. just 2 aleve have the strength to relieve arthritis pain all day. why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football... i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus. (announcer) we understand. you want to grow internationally. fedex express this is going to be a hell of a ride. >> this is financial panic. >> lehman brothers filing for bankruptcy. >> there's just a real combination of sadness, of so shock. >> bank of america acquiring merrill lynch for $50 billion. >> aig clinging. >> aig is too big to fail. >> some firms have to fail. that's part of capitalism. >> there are going to be some real rough spots along the road. >> this is one of the ugliest days i have ever seen in my career and it seems like there's no end in sight. >> how far have we come and where do we go from here? one year later, the month that shook the world. reports on air and online on cnbc. first in business worldwide. >> okay. we may end up going to pittsburgh momentarily. president obama has taken to the podium early. he was scheduled to speak in about 15 minutes, but he's already arrived there. this is the annual convention of the afl-cio, and it appears he's about to begin his opening remarks here. so let's listen in. >> thank you very much. thank you so much. please, everybody, have a seat. thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you, guys. thank you. thank you. thank you very much, everybody. all right. you guys are making me blush. thank you. thank you. thank you so much, everybody. please. you know, yeah, i tell you what, the white house is pretty nice, but there's nothing like being back in the house of labor. [ cheers and applause ] let me begin by recognizing a man who came to washington to fight for the working men and women of pennsylvania and who has a distinguished record of doing just that, arlen specter. i want to give my thanks and the thanks of our nation to one of the great labor leaders of our time, a man whose entire life has been devoted to working people who brought new life to a movement, who worked tirelessly on behalf of organized workers and who will be stepping down tomorrow, your president, john sweeney. john, i know that maureen is looking forward to seeing a little more of you. your granddaughter, kennedy, is about to get a whole lot more spoiled by her grandpa, but we are so proud of the work that you have done and grateful for your lifetime of service. i know it's bad luck to congratulate somebody before they're officially elected, but i'm going to go ahead and take my chances and congratulate the man who will pick up john's mantle. a man who worked his way through college to lead the united mine workers, my friend, a fiery advocate for america's ideals, rich chamka. i also want to congratulate the officers coming in with rich. arlene, who will be continuing her service, and liz, who will be making history as the first woman elected secretary/treasurer. i am looking forward to working with every single one of you. now, being here with all of you is a reminder of what we're trying to do in washington and why i'm there in the first place. one of the fundamental reasons i ran for president was to stand up for hard-working families, to ease the struggles, to lift the hopes and make possible the dreams of middle class americans. your stories are what drive me each and every day in the white house. stories i read about in letters or i hear about in town hall meetings or somebody grabs me in a rope line and starts telling me something. stories i remember from the campaign trail. stories like one told by steve scavara, a proud member of the united steel workers in indiana. steve spent 34 years at ltv steel until a car accident left him with a disability and forced him to retire. when the company went broke a couple years later, steve lost his pension and his family lost their health care. so rising to ask a question at the afl-ci o debate during the campaign, steve said, and i am quoting him now, every day of my life i sit at the kitchen table across from the woman who devoted 36 years of her life to my family, and i can't afford to pay for her health care. and as he said it, he got choked up and his voice started to crack. brothers and sisters, this isn't just about steve. this is about all of us because when hard-working americans like steve succeed, that's when organized labor succeeds. and when organized labor succeeds when when our middle class succeeds, and when the middle class succeeds, that's when the united states of america succeeds. that's what we're fighting for. [ applause ] for over half a century the success of america has been built on the success of our middle class. it was the creation of the middle class that lifted this nation up in the wake of a great depression. it was the expansion of the middle class that opened the doors of opportunity to millions more. it was a strong middle class that powered american industries and propelled america's economy and made the 20th century the american century. and the fundamental test of this century of our time is whether we will heed this lesson, whether we will let america become a nation of the very rich and the very poor, of the haves and the have nots, or whether they will remain true to the promise of this country and build a future where the success of all of us is built on the success of each of us. [ applause ] that's the future i want to build. that's the future the afl-cio wants to build. that's the future the american people want to build. that's the future that i have been working to build from the moment i took office. [ applause ] now, we've been hearing a lot of stuff from folks who aren't that friendly to me or the union movement, so let's just take a stroll down memory lane. let's just remember where we were when i took the oath of office a little over eight months ago. at the time folks were fearing the complete collapse of our entire financial system. our economy was shedding about 700,000 jobs a month. our credit markets were frozen. folks couldn't get a home loan, they couldn't get a car loan, they couldn't get a student loan if they needed it. what was a deep recession threatened to become a great depression. you remember that, right? okay. that's why we acted boldly and swiftly to pass an unprecedented economic recovery act. a plan that didn't include any of the usual washington earmarks or pork barrel spending, but what it did include was a guarantee to uphold a prevailing wage. [ applause ] we're keeping a promise i made to give all of you 95% of working americans a tax cut, a tax cut that will benefit nearly 5 million families in pennsylvania. we increased and extended unemployment insurance to 12 million americans, including hundreds of thousands of pennsylvanians. we made sure that they could get health insurance if they were looking for a job because c.o.b.r.a. was too expensive, reduced the cost of it by 65% so a lot of families out there were able to hang onto their health care even during the downturn. weaver putting americans to work across this country rebuilding crumbling roads and bridges and waterways with the largest investment in our infrastructure since eisenhower created the interstate highway system in the 1950s. [ applause ] all in all, many middle class families will see their incomes go up by about $3,000 because of the recovery act helping them get back much of what they've lost due to this recession. so i know times are still tough for working people. i know too many people are still looking for work or worried they'll be the next ones let go, but the recovery act is making a difference. we've stopped our economic free fall. that's something everybody can agree on. but here is the problem -- even before this last financial cris crisis, the economy had problems. just last week a census report came out showing that in 2008 before the downturn family income fell to its lowest point in over a decade, and more families slid into poverty. folks at the top 1% did pretty good. everybody else saw their wages and incomes flatten. that's unacceptable, and i refuse to let america go back to the culture of irresponsibility and greed that made it possible, back to an economy with soaring ceo salaries and shrinking middle class incomes, back to the days when banks made reckless decisions that hurt wall street and main street alike. we're not going to go back to those days. it would be bad for union, bad for the middle class, and bad for the united states of america. we're not turning back. we're moving forward. [ applause ] we're not turning back. we're moving forward. and that's why we need to mbuil a new foundation for lasting prosperity by creating the jobs of the future, by reforming our health care system, by laying down tough rules of the road to protect consumers from abuse. let the markets function fairly and freely and ensure that we