Investors are considering the risks to the companies growth. Making that move today joins us live brian, welcome. Thanks for having me. Yeah, one of the big reasons that you made this call today. Theres several my view on the stock in business is that its a great business and a great stock accept for the fact that it hasnt gotten a lot better in the last 8 months. In fact the conditions around it have gotten worse. You know political macro uncertainty. Thats not good for them you have more awareness at least on my part thats a new Consumer Privacy protection policy that will be in effect as of may of next year. Thats using data to target advertising that very few investors are even aware of in the united states. Next you have increasing problems with viewability that marketers were not aware of last year and 2 of ads viewable by one study i have seen. 20 by some others i dont think most large marketers are aware of this and hasnt impacted how they were budgeted you see the news on thursday about how much they cut their digital ad spending. We can argue we havent seen it play out it takes time but the reality is theyre cutting their spending and it wont make a meaningful difference as the fact that theyre talking so much about what theyre doing will cause more marketers to apply more scrutiny. The biggest single factor that investors are not considering though is were approaching point of saturation for Digital Advertising. Facebook and google today count for 78 of Digital Advertising spending outside of china. An im an optimist and that thats they get to 93 . And your terminal growth rates its not realist toic to assume that they could tap into the Marketing Budget its really not a 5 or 600 billion global market. Its trillions theres marketing out there. No even amazon has a hard time getting Marketing Budgets to play nice with advertising budgets and theyre the only ones in a good position to do it facebook is not. Youre looking for a 30 move in the stock wheres your price target . Well, its 140. To be clear im not saying the stock is going to move today or tomorrow im saying this is what i think its worth so when i have a 940 price target on google would i rather be exposed to google rather than facebook absolutely. Its josh brown over the last 140 point rally in facebook over the last 4. 5 years every single downgrade, pretty much yours included has been something to the effect of there arent any execution problems the company is doing great but investors arent anticipating the risk and paying for it why do you think its different . Is there some Inflection Point where all of a sudden every growth, every tech fund, every indexer is going to say you know what, it is expensive . Im not saying that thats necessarily what happens what im saying is would i rather Something Else . In other words would i rather be exposed to google . I have a dozen names that i have hold i have one buy would i rather have an alternative . If you told me youre stuck with facebook the next five years for the business as a stock. Fine, its okay. Its great but would i rather have an alternative . Thats how i look at it. First of all, i want to congratulate you too many analysts found momentum in the stock and keep raising the price target to follow the stock price. Its gone way past that and its time for me to take it where the price of the stock should match what i think the fundamentals were so congratulations on that however where i disagree with you are on the fundamentals and Procter Gamble is one company but to me what theyre going to do is theyre going to put the spending to the companies that dont bring returns on their ad dollars and that wont be facebook that wont be google it will be the third t 4th tier, the second Tier Companies that theyre allocating spending to facebook is not an expensive company for what theyre growing at and what theyre providing shareholders and the execution and how they continue to invest. So they have created a moet around the country i think it continues to perform. How do you account for that as well as what youre talking about on the other side is what everybody is talking about forever in terms of digital, in terms of what youre actually getting on the click throughs and so forth isnt that just old news at this point . First of all, thank you for the compliment but the second point of what Procter Gamble is doing, the reality is theyre cutting spending on just about every media owner thats digital. The problem that im pointing out is that when theyre applying as much scrutiny as they are to facebook included every other major large brand will be doing the same most will continue to increase their spending but take view bability as one issue. Very few are aware of how poor it is. When we talk about why that matters for facebook in particular for the 30 or so theyre not allocating budgets to digital adverse tiegz atisin facebook in particular in terms of clicks. Budgeting to Digital Advertising or tv or any other medium is based on a sheer allocation thats largely sentiment driven. Thats how large marketers allocate their budgets you realize only 2 are being seen to be clear thats on a very low standard relative to television and you start to reassess your models a marketing mixed model or media mixed model it wont look as good your point i think is correct there. Thank you very much. First of all for brian, i know Fund Managers in salem, massachusetts that are ready to tie him up to a stake and burn him like a witch that was a very balsy call and what i found intriguing about him defending it is he is saying the platform facebook itself now i look at this call from two different perspectives number one is he telling me that when i spend my dollars and i do spend money on facebook the king has no clothes thats a big call hearsaying its basically a me tritric tha people arent considering. Number two, is he making a call on Digital Advertising slowing because if im going to put an allocation to any two stocks that have the majority share of this business its google and facebook and if you tell me one of them has no clothes on then i have to ask whats going on with the whole space. It almost feels like look you could make a call, could you not, okay the stock is up 50 in a year so maybe its time to take the chips off the table. Does it feel thats the real story and analysts trying to build a case of what ifs around that. I think he said that brands like Procter Gamble want to make sure that when they buy display advertising for example theyre above the fold and not below. Im in this world so i know this stuff. I think hes saying that there are some Large Companies like p g that are looking at the money theyre spending and saying turns out if we cut spending we dont see any drop off in revenue so there is some efficiency. Maybe we dont need to spend quite as much. Thats not necessarily a knock on facebook specifically if you actually read the note hes saying lets just digital spend in general. Actually, youre still with us i am. Do you want to respond directly to kevin oleary . Yeah, no, i mean, hes reiterating my point im saying that for many advertisers, not all, they were not considering all the negatives of Digital Advertising until about two years ago. Theres a trade group of large marketers where someone did say the emperor has no clothes on all parts of the digital supply chain and that started an effort in fact the opposite was true because they could not because they could tell it mattered i argue that all advertising spent because its the least ineffective way to spend your money. You have to spend it somewhere its all flawed. It all has problems so wheres the least bad way to spend your money. If youre expedia youre trying to drive people to your site digital the advertising is where youll put your budget but they started to realize that the first and most important thing they need to do is reach as many people as possible and thats not necessarily Digital Advertising. Thats television. So advertisers find scrutiny in ways they werent. People tried to call the top in this stock before and they have been burned if the market continues to go up, the nasdaq just coming off of a fantastic month as is the nasdaq 100 if the Leadership Group continues to perform, why wouldnt facebook just continue to be the darling or at least one of the darlings. The company just reported 28 growth in revenues i dont care what Procter Gamble says. I care what the results of the company are which is that theyre an outlier. Go ahead. Really gutsy call brian has been out front of a lot of tech stocks in the past heres the plus and the minus from my perspective. His call on the transparency piece is really important. Facebook has been difficult in regards to actual data they dont open their platform very well. They dont embrace you as an advertising and thats a really important call on the flip side were not talking about the two fastest assets that they have which is whats app and instagram and the potential that probably exists there and lastly and most important what Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg have proven, in terms of growing this core business that maybe starts to flatten over the next couple of years theyre going to buy their way to growth which is what every tech company does i agree on transparency and were missing another key factor but thats a tiny piece of the overall revenue. The street doesnt want to hear it. I would argue that this is not a call that everyone is going to listen to im trying to call where the business and the stock is worth. What the specific prices are. Thank you for joining us. More commentary on the desk lets boil it down to that. If you own it you continue to hold it. Im not in the stock and im wondering if i should be the thing that stands out the most, 2 billion users. Tv is a better medium to getting to people. I dont get that this is a 2 billion user base. 139 2 times price attorneyings to growth ratio this is very attractively priced. It goes higher from here its sort of taking a page off. Why couldnt it happen to facebook. Everyone has that issue thats not a company specific. Facebook might be more or less at risk given how badly people want to target people on that platform but i think we would agree Cyber Security is a threat the bigger thing to me and i think i agree, hes saying that google might be a better bang for your buck as an investor just based purely on the opportunity set and what youre paying for the stock and i think theres something too that im long google and not long facebook so i dont have a problem with that being a conclusion but i still think both have plenty of potential to continue to do well. Lets move more broadly to the overall faang stocks and the fact that the nasdaq 100 is up 4 for the month of july and considering whether this is going to continue. These are the stocks that people want to buy. Look at the one month performance of all of these. Amazon, okay, pulled back because of earnings. Netflix up 21 and theres google at the bottom as well are these the stocks you want to still play why wouldnt they be. Fundamentally theyre continuing to show what you want a stock to do youre talking about facebook, steven points out 28 Revenue Growth that offsets the concerns you have as it relates to digital ads. When you talk about facebook youre talking about a stock lets go back to brian hes not here right now unfortunately but brian took facebook from a buy to a hold in early january when the price was 125. These stocks are exhibiting, check the box on everything that you want in the 2007 marketplace and if you are concerned that they are getting way ahead of themselves there are far better ways to hedge off the risk than the fang stocks than going in themselves and liquidate them. Thats a false premise and move. Youre fine in case they fall. Do these stocks still work in the months ahead or is there going to be a continued rotation or meaningful rotation to more value sen tricentric stocks. I dont consider them equals. I argue that putting amazon and netflix into a portfolio adds a fair amount of risk that you dont have with facebook and Google Google and facebook have proven Business Models and cash flows are measured and multiplied and its your determination. Thats not the case for amazon including in netflix case where they make no money and may never or the case of amazon. You cant tell me these four all have the same systemic risk. Do not have amazon and netflix but they do have it. Apple reports earnings tomorrow. They have am. Yeah. You know apples quarter is going to be its a throw away quarter. I dont care what they do. But you care what they say. Thats what matters most. All i care about. Its what they say about the phones coming up in the quarter ahead. The only thing i care about is the release date of the next phone. If theyre going to move it two weeks i dont care if they have supply side problems if theyre going to be able to fix i dont care if they say anything that get mess hurt in the next quarter when the phone gets released i will care but my channel checks what i hear from the company my sources say this is going to be an upside call on the future of the phone. I think stock is going to do fine tomorrow. I could be wrong i dont know anything better than anybody else but theres no disaster on the supply side in terms of getting inventory ready. Were talking about tens of millions of phones that people want to buy in september and even if they delay it until october 1, no one is going to care. Could impact what the numbers end up being for the current quarter. People are going to be hinging on any word that apple says not to mention where the Services Business continues to go how do you view this company today . Business will continue to grow. Go ahead. I dont put apple in the same category as the fang stocks. Theyre a different company. Theyre not in Digital Advertising. Theyre in media they have a toe in the Media Business thats the one to watch for me will it help drive the device sale i think back to the fang stocks. I also wouldnt put them in the same bucket. Google is probably your safest bet there. They have an absolute dominant position in the Digital Advertising business that they are the place you go to spend money. I think facebook has operated really well. As efficiently as any company in the marketplace. Im a little suspect about the longterm growth there unless they diverse identify whiify. Amazon is my Favorite Company in the world. I said it here before. That company can do almost anything it wants. It doesnt a taxes and is almost a half a trillion Dollar Market Cap Company so i like where theyre going in every different category to me, netflix is the one that i worry most about 20 billion in debt. My guess is thaer going to have to take a write down on that at some point 100 million global subscribers or more. Thats good news they have levers in pricing and also in shutting off accounts. 3, 4, 5 people could use an account and dial that down you probably have growth there but theyre the only one of the four that dont have it apple spends 10 million and netflix is spending 6 thats an issue for them plus all the companies in the overthe top streaming space of the four thats the least defensible. Lets talk about snap the first shareholder lockup expiration happening how many shares could hit the market and what it could mean for the stock. Shares hit an all time low this morning down about 5 before rebounding but now down just over 2 this of course after the lockup on 400 million snap shares expired over the weekend giving early investors including Lightspeed Venture partners a chance to sell. We reached out to both of those companies. Light speed hasnt gotten back to us but general catalyst gave us a no comment. Now the flood gates will open more on august 1th thats four days after earnings and then employees will be able to sell about 782 million shares then at the end of august another 20 million shares will become available according to jp morgan now for some comparison twitter shares drop 18 the day of its lockup expiration in may of 2014 book shares jumped 13 on the day of its lockup expiration that was november 2012 and that was the beginning of the turn around in facebook shares. Now for snapchat the next major milestone are snap earnings which are weak from thursday the pressure is definitely on for ceo to show user and engagement growth after last week facebook its much larger rival reported better than expected results having successfully copied the number of snaps most popular features back to you. Thank you so much what do you do with this is today a buying opportunity . Is much of the action already in the stock . Given by, you know, the fact that its only down 2 on what could have been or at least was thought to be a much deeper slide potential kind of day. First of all, congratulations to josh that called this you had a buy order in at 13 if im not mistaken. 12. All right so youre almost there. I think clearly this lockup was priced in to some degree the only, bigger days are the 10th and the 14th of this month because on the 10th i think all investors are going to be looking for our growth even the revenue side is less important because, you know, you to have time to build those ad products but if that mau number and dau number is not good thats where i would watch out the lockup here today are the big funds but if im sitting there with this big of a profit built in maybe i take a little off. The bigger day is the 14th when employees can sell and i think most employees are not that sophisticated with regards to where a stock sits they got the shares for pennies or a dollar and theyre up 12 or 13. That would worry me more than today. Clearly the stock sort of lef leveled off but frankly the thing about this, the last couple of weeks or the last month that bothers me more than anything is that you heard not a peep out of snapchat and i have been in companies, obviously yahoo that has been under attack and you spend a lot of time figuring out how to combat that and come out with positive stories on wall street theyre completely under attack. By that me trick thtric theye under attack before they went public not anymore. I would say whats actually happened is we have ways of tracking what daus and maus might be app downloads this is atrocious are down 22 how could you think theres an upsi upside its hard. The second thing and this might be even more noteworthy, the sentiment surveys among influencers, the people that you need to be on these services driving engagement are going very negative. Theyre saying they want to spend more time on instagram stories. You are backing up his claim. They are under attack. Theyre under atrack. Thats not an attack. They havent been able to change the narrative thats not an attack. They made no attempts to do that. These are just facts. This is not wall Street Investors screaming at them, this is User Engagement metrics falling off a clip. They cant come out and talk about it i would say let the earnings talk for themselves good or bad. If they come out try to rebutt the negative dialogue and they turn out to be true then its worse. Yeah if theres no good story inside of snapchat right now id be shocked theres something good happening there. So then it will come out with earnin earnings i totally disagree on one end of the spectrum you have President Trump that will combat anything the minute it happens and on the other end of the spectrum you have a completely silent snapchat and id bet you theres something good happening there now are daus flat or growing slightly are maus flat or down, josh is 100 right you can look at a bunch of statistics and see if thats happening but theres good stuff going out there. I just dont understand why someone, evan that really doesnt speak im sure its much better than its rivals. Maybe theyre like your Favorite Company jeff besos has never come out and talked about the good things no matter who trashed the stock and its been trashed repeatedly for an expended period of time since its been public. Completely different story. Completely different story we have to rewind 20 years to address where it is today. You have facebook focused on killing this company and you have to fight back. Thank you a lot more ahead where to get in. Where to get out. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. For years, centurylink has been promising fast internet to small businesses. But for many businesses, its out of reach. Why promise something you cant deliver . Comcast business is different. We deliver superfast internet with speeds of 250 megabits per second across our entire network, to more companies, in more locations, than centurylink. We do business where you do business. Welcome back to Halftime Report hbo suffering a hack attack resulting in an episode of its series and another of its new series reportedly being posted online along with what is allege through part of a script for next weeks game of thrones show hbo experienced a cyberattack in which it resulted in compromising information saying theyre working with Law Enforcement and outside Cyber Security forms and its obviously destructive such an important show for the whole time warner family. Jury deliberations beginning today in the case against martin shkreli. Were about three hours into deliberation on 8 separate counts including conspiracy fraud and then stole from his former Bio Tech Company retrofin. He was arrested of course the government said he could face up to 20 years when convicted its necessary. In a year theres 50 outside from here. Shares could hit 100 by 2020. An exclusive interview you told cramer that in a particular equity and whatever the fundamentals might be when you have that momentum you want to make sure that its aligned properly with you coming out and reporting new earnings thats what citi has been doing lately capital allocations story better so that price target might be a little bit aggressive. Im not sure but i think the upside is there. I think the upside for all the big financials are still there its a place you could be in. If you just bought the break out at 63 you wouldnt need to know anything. This was as clear as a bell. We talked about it on the show when it happened after a long period of consolidation you got a huge thrust to a level that had been in resistance for a long time. You dont have to be an expert on the stock a lot of times something can be evident to everyone but price tells you when people start to care about it. So citi has been the cheapest bank out of this group of giant banks and now, now what has changed is that the street agrees that 20 compound Earnings Growth in addition to billions and billions now being returned all of a sudden is going to matter so gietsd to understand the fundamentals. That tells you what to buy technicals tells you when the market is ready to agree with you and combining those two things citi was in. The core fundamentals told you to buy the stock however they finally put out something for 2020 longer than a year that people could sink their teeth into. Some of this is based on share buy backs. Not all of it. Theres also 10 Revenue Growth baked in which i think is a little aggressive but lets say its not 10 and take it to the industry which is jp morgan jp morgan trades at 1. 7 times tangible book. City trades at 1. 0 times tangible book. That discount is simply too high they dont have to trade to parody. Did you know that city is the best performing Big Bank Stock to date. I know that. You use the core guidance. What he has done is he has the assets he has gotten rid of the assets. Very risky and didnt return as much on capital as the other assets and now you are in this global synchronized recovery where youre able to go back to traditional businesses that actually penalize them as the Global Economy was sinking so now its operating in reverse and i think it should recover. I cant wait to hear from when he is able to do it and i hope its soon is our boy mayo. Mike, yeah. He has been among the biggest and most vocal critics over the years of citi. Right. Where they have an issue still i think is near the business where if you talk to others on the street is not up to snuff. That could change quarter to quarter and the credit card business is probably more stable. Complicating it way too much. The template for city in 2017 was bank of america in 2016. Everyone same suspicion. Ro look at what bank of america has done what its producings. Give me a quick wrap on that. You have to believe financials are going to out perform Everything Else in the s p to buy this call its 11 times earnings. Theres a reason these trade at a material discount we know we know. The point is it could stay at a material discount and still see huge price increase. Its at book value in an improving Global Economy. Any time you say youre basically saying it was really, really ugly and now it has good make up on it so it deserves to trade at 1. 7. No its 8 years since the end of the financial crisis. What josh was talking about with the Balance Sheet, sorry steve was, that is the natural roll off of all of the crummy loans they made ten years ago. Its been 8 years. They allowed them to roll off. Theyre not plague game with the Balance Sheet here its just time and you will never find ceos. You need Interest Rates to actually get a descent spread. You guys are in a love fest with this sector. Thank goodness im here to bring reality. We have done fairly well here. I think theyre fuller to the point of view that the Interest Rate environment and banking regulation and all the stuff is not materialized now maybe they will. Okay maybe in the First Quarter of next year all of a sudden well get deregulation and Everything Else meanwhile the loan books are material to say the loan quality is bad flies in the face of reason. It flies in the face of facts. Go ahead kevin. The last word goes to you. Were still going to know each other in 24 months and one of sus going to be right. Im looking forward to it. I just think the best days are behind this name he has to buy you gold plated coupons. Thats why they call it a market somebody has to disagree with you and thank goodness its me. The stock reaction would suggest that the folks thagree with the gang here my man. Wait and see. We will. Lets go to sue herrera that has the latest headlines. Heres whats happening at this hour, President Trump holding a Cabinet Meeting at the white house saying he will handle the north korea situation. He was flanked by defense secretary james mattis. We have some interesting situations that well handle north korea, middle east, lots of problems that we inherited from previous administrations we will take care of them really well. Rick scott creating a state of emergency in response to Tropical Storm emily that storm came ashore on floridas gulf coast this morning. Youre looking at damage in ft. Myers florida. Prince william and his wife kate visiting a cemetery in belgium to pay their respects to soldiers killed in world war i hundreds of thousands of men on both sides lost their lives in the battle that lasted from july to november of 1917. You are up to date thats the news update this hour over to Brian Sullivan with whats ahead on power lunch. Thank you very much big power lunch on tap for a monday including whether all the changes in washington will finally bring a little stability to the white house which could send markets higher. Plus teslas model 3 finally on the road phil got behind the wheel. Hell tell us what it was like to drive the new roadster and if that new dashboard look will be a turn on or turn off. Were excited about this all week were making nit america. Highlighting companies that are prooufg doubters wrong and successfully manufacturing in the usa. A great look at american success stories. Whats wrong with a little good news its not a bad thing. Not at all. Oleary may disagree. Well see at the top of the hour pete seeing unusual activity is going to tell us what they are in a couple of minutes im here to fix the elevator. Nothings wrong with the elevator. Right. But you want to fix it. Right. So who sent you . New guy. What new guy . Watson. My analysis of sensor and Maintenance Data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. There you go. You still need a pass. I enjoy the fresher things in life. There you go. Fresh towels. Fresh soaps. And of course, tripadvisors freshest, lowest prices. So if youre anything like me. Youll want to check tripadvisor. We now instantly compare prices from over 200 booking sites. To find you the lowest price. On the hotel you want. Go on, try something fresh. Tripadvisor. The latest reviews. The lowest prices. Welcome back to halftime great to see you scott. Its really interesting scott because when you look across and you start to see it, the big cap names getting huge activity. Microsoft is about as big as it gets we see huge calls. And theyre rolling up and out and this half is not only going to get through the highs they raise their price target from 80 to 85 so theres reasons why people are look at microsoft saying this has some upside and its going to break out. Are you sure . You love this stock you love the company. I do love the stock. Theyve done everything that was promised and when you look at cloud, the cloud, the cloud app, everything, revenue wise what is going on at microsoft, phenomenal story i suggest people look at that. Very graeszive everyone is talking about free port and u. S. Steel and other names. Rio out there as well. Very aggressive buying and stock is at a 52 week high now and people are rolling up out there as well. A shorter term september calls just out in the morning. Stock was trading about 4720 and aggressive buying there. Im in those calls ill be in there for about a month. Ill in b microsoft for a couple of months. Looking sharp did you go to the mall of america over the weekend no, i was in a great place. Unbelievable had a great time thanks. Were going toisss t dcuhe names just ahead in the blitz. For your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. When it does the index is up another 2. 77 on average when bought august 1st and sold the final day of the quarter now back to scott wapner and the Halftime Report. All right less than 100 points from dow 22,000 pretty good day for stocks today. Dow right now is up 85 points. Nasdaq is in the red s p 500 is up by 1 1 2 points. Halftime report is back right after this d water damage. Soon, Insurance Companies wont pay for damages. That is, not if they can help prevent damages from happening in the first place. At cognizant, were turning the industry known for processing claims into one focused on prevention with predictive analytics, helping them proactively protect the things that matter most. Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. When youre clocking out. Sensing your every move and automatically adjusting to help you stay effortlessly comfortable. There. I can also help with this. Does your bed do that . Oh. I dont actually talk. Though im smart enough to. Im the new sleep number 360 smart bed. Lets meet at a sleep number store. All right. It is time now for the blitz hertz is the first stop were talking about right now, downgraded to underweight at barclays joe, it is yours down 4 . Yes, they did that today. They should have done it in 2012 when it was 125. Weak Pricing Power its all but lost. The impact of uber dont touch it josh, we havent talked about gopro in i cant remember how long got an upgrade today Morgan Stanley strike up the band only bullish thing about gopro is 22 short interest. By the way, props on this upgrade. Its the first time ive ever seen an upgrade where the price target was lower than the current price. Morgan stanley upgraded it but their target is 7. 50 the stock is 8 and change. Discovery and scripps this is an industry thats quickly consolidating and i think theres still other places you can look within the industry maybe viacom gets acquired, maybe sony is an acquirer. Theres interesting spaces to play in here coach jefferies downgraded it to hold from buy i think jefferies had a great call the ostock upgrading it they say its all in. All priced in id be curious if jimmys channel checks this weekend in womens hand r handbags. Well get to it next week. A little gratuitous a little forced. You did do channel checks before well be right back with final trades where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. upbeat dance music bell ringing what . Pony neighing] hey gary. Oh. Whats with the dogsized horse . 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Liberty stands with you™ Liberty Mutual insurance. Thats it for us power starts right now im melissa lee. Whats on the menu President Trump swearing in retired general kelly as his new chief of staff can he bring a bit of that military discipline to the trump agenda well debate that. Discovery and scripps announcing their 12 billion tieup does this mean we can look forward to shows like deadliest iron chef, fast and loud tiny homes, or maybe a new offering flip or fn