Doubt a very tense capitol hill, where Kayla Tausche is standing by ahead of the Health Care Vote. Kayla . Brian, House Republican leadership are rushing back and forth, scurrying about with a lot of prescheduled items on the calendar. But, just a few moments ago, the House Majority leader was shrined by reporters here in the hallway and asked three separate times if he was committed to bringing this Health Care Bill to the floor for a vote, regardless of whether it looked like there was enough support for it to pass. His answer was, why are you guys always so negative . He didnt answer the question straight on. Reporters kept asking and he just accused the press of being negative and only focusing on the negative. Thats important, because this vote is supposed to take place in a number of hours. Nonetheless, republicans are still trying to coalesce the support that is needed to actually have this passed. And one more thing that might be important to the market, is mccarthy was asked what lessons he would have learned going into tax reform, and he said that he has learned that once we get through this, tax reform will be easier. So thats interesting. But people are still wondering what the Freedom Caucus will do, whether they will be voting in support of this. Mark sanford, the congressman from South Carolina says hes still struggling with how to lower costs. And we also spoke with congressman from arizona, trent frank, a member of the Freedom Caucus. He said he was undeclared for exactly how he would vote, but he did send some signals that he would potentially vote for it. He said theyre trying to get the full bill that they wanted through the senate, would be like putting a camel through the eye of the needle, using that biblical parable. I believe we have a sound bite from the congressman. Instead, well play that for you later. But he did say that he was optimistic and that he hoped that his colleagues would do, in his words, the right thing. Guys . All right, kayla, thank you very much. Lets bring this together and bring this back, importantly, to the cnbc audience. Pete najarian, no doubt health care is an important vote. Its an important vote for america. Its an important vote for millions of people who rely on health care, and maybe need their health care or need it changed. But for the market perspective, what do you think is the key . Is this really that important . I think its important enough that if there is if they cant get this passed, i think we do get a selloff. And i think as we discussed yesterday on here, i think it creates an opportunity. I think its a great opportunity, because then you look down the line, and Steve Mnuchins been out there all day long talking about exactly what he thinks is most important, tax reform. He think that gets done by august when they go into recess. So when you look ahead, that, i think, is a far bigger catalyst for us going forward. And i still think, and i agree with larry ckudlow. He was on last night and was talking about, they probably took the wrong path going for health care first. Why not start with tax reform because they said thats what they were going to do. They should have put that second they boxed themselves in. But are the marketed boxed in by this . Yes, but only temporarily, brian. This to me will have the same effect as the brexit or even the election itself if they fail to pass this. Youll get a selloff, it will be shortlived. Why . Because theres a lot of cash on the shrineidelines. Brian, sometimes i feel like i live in an alternate universe. If i had told you a year from now that we would have a week in which the s p declines by 1 and the president of the United States and his closest advisers were being investigated by the fbi for possible treason, you would say, this is the strongest, most resilient market i have ever heard of can we possibly have that . And thats exactly what we have going on right now. Banks came in with yields, fine. Xlf down 3 this week. No big deal. S p down, just about 1 . Look around the world. Europe is flat this week. The eem, emerging markets is up 1 . If youre an investor right now, its like an alternate rally to hear about all of this consternation. Lets bring it back to this universe. Which the reality is, to joshs point, 9 of the 11 s p sectors have had earnings revisions up in the last couple of weeks. The job market is strong. Theres a growing line of thinking that maybe nothing happening is actually the best outcome of all, because why throw sort of a grenade in what is a strong market and strong economy. Whats your view. No doubt that the macro backdrop, the profit backdrop, its positive. Its constructive. So i think that markets, you know, will remain sort of supportive. I will agree in the shortterm, we could see some pockets of weakness, but weve sort of held a cautious view. But i think as you go into the second half of the year, we need to see what happens on the tax side. I would agree there is more upside to the market. Do you feel like this vote is that crucial to the market . I think marginally, marginally. Why only marginally . I think its more of a sentiment play. How does the Investor Base react . If it doesnt pass through, do people then start questioning the administration or capability . But i think, again, its only heres another way to look at it. The best possible think that could happen is this terrible bill fails and they go fullbore into tax because theyre that much more desperate to get something done. So maybe the best possible thing that could happen for the president , for the country, for sentiment, for people in the marketplace is to say, they gave this a shot. Trump wont even put his name on it. This guy will put his name on steak. So now they need a win, republicans need a win, not just the trump administration, and they need to come togethering on something, and tax policy, much easier to do. So maybe it speeds that up. Can i keep this really simple . No, i want it complex. The audience is capable of understanding the complexities of your mind. We dont have to do it. It is this simple. We have an incredibly strong labor market. It is really, really strong, and thats whats going to propel this economy further. The markets may have a hiccoup if this bill doesnt pass. You have strong labor market and wage growth. Thats what i referred to. We said, there are whispers out there, that as important as the trump agenda may be, in some ways, the market folks, theyre sort of whispering, maybe nothing gets done josh, you brought up a great question or great point about, nobody is paying attention to, you are calling it, right, its treason. If this were 16th century dpl d england, there would be heads rolling at this point in time. The reason the markets doesnt care is because of the economic strength that underlies this. That could change really fast. One thing i think that is important that maybe we havent brought up yet is this just this general idea that there are other things happening that, you know, take a look at yields, for examp example. Were bonds supposed to go up . Was the dollar supposed to fall . Well get to that i promise a little bit later on in the show. Pete, you alluded to it earlier. Today, Steven Mnuchin was asked about the timeline for congressional approval. Heres what he said. Youve famously said that we would have tax reform by congress august recess. Is that still the case . I would like to think so. What ive said all along is, this is optimistic, okay . This is a big challenge. But were going to try to get it done on that period of time. And if we dont, well get it done right afterwards. Its a big priority. Cnbcs chief washington correspondent, john harwood, joining us now. John, treasury secretary sounding reasonably optimistic. What are you hearing . First of all, let me just say, i think josh just sunk a couple of threepointers from downtown in that discussion earlier. I think he is correct that the markets and the economy are quite resilient. Its not all about washington and what happens day to day in washington. And secondly, i think if health care goes down today, which theres a pretty good chance it will. Not predicting that, but it is in deep trouble at this moment, i do think that will increase the zeal to come together on a tax plan. Do i think it will happen by the august recess . No, i dont. Tax reform is very difficult. It, obviously, depends on how broad it is. It is if its individual plus corporate, no chance of getting it done by august, but if its just a Corporate Tax reform, which is what i think generates the greatest interest among republicans on capitol hill, i think that is an item that whatever happens on health care reform, that has considerably better than 50 50 odds to pass. It will not cut rates down to 20 or 15 , as trump or paul ryan have discussed. I think the senate is going to resist a border adjustment task, which gets those rates down lower. But i think theres a pretty substantial consensus within the Republican Party on doing this. I think theyll get it done this year. But john, yes or no, based on the people youre talking to, is health care a proxy for the other stuff that the president wants to do, in particular, like you said, tax reform, but also infrastructure . If health care fails, does that mean the party is fractured and the other stuff will fail, too . Only partly. Look, the party is fractured, yes. Full stop, no question about it. But health care is an extraordinarily difficult issue. Thats why it took democrats 50 years, 60 years to Pass Health Care reform. If you undo it and try to lay a new Health Care System on top of it, which republicans are trying to do very quickly, when many of them are small Government Conservatives who dont really believe there should be a National Health care program. So theres zero enthusiasm within the Republican Caucus for this bill. They dont like obamacare, they dont like obama, but there is zero enthusiasm for this bill. Tax reform is an entirely different thing. Theres tons of enthusiasm for it. Theres a lot of Corporate Support for it. And theres some democratic support for it, too. So that all of those things, i think, separate the Health Debate from the tax debate. Infrastructure is more complicated. I think infrastructure would be shown to be more difficult, because of health cares failure, but not tax reform. All right. John harwood, i have a feeling were going to see you much more through the day, just sort of a thought by me, john. Thank you very much. By the way, some breaking news right now, as all of this shakes out. Just getting word that Speaker Paul Ryan is on his way to the white house right now. Again, discussions continue with the gop, their offshoot, the Freedom Caucus, and the president. Any headlines come out, of course, you will know first, dear cnbc viewer. Guys, lets go around and trade this any way we can. Pete, lets take infrastructure, for example. These stocks have had huge runs. Some of them have doubled. Right. The market hasnt sold them off. The market is saying, eh, if this fails theyre still going to get these other things done its likely and maybe more likely and i would agree with them. And they would be much more aggressive. And i think thats why we talked about the idea that he went after health care first, that was the mistake. He should have started with tax reform, started moving towards repatriation, all of the things weve talked about that really are going to be a stimulant when you really think about the economy itself. I think Corporate Tax rate being competitive, thats what mnuchin was talking about, and you heard harwood there just talking about, well, is he the going to go after corporate or more than that . I think the focus is on exactly that. The Corporate Tax rate being competitive. That if they stick to that, theyll get that done by august. I think theres a little bit of a misconception right now that the market is so frothy and hyped up about trumps agenda and so that the risk is, if it doesnt go through, theres going to be huge disappointment. If you actually look at small caps, a great example, these would be the companies that are going to arguably get the most benefit from the trump agenda. Theyre domestically focused, financed here in the u. S. , et cetera. Then why have they been selling . Heres my point. Theyve been underperforming all year. The worst performing of the major index this year . They went wild last year, but since the beginning of this year, they have not been leading. I dont know how hyped up the market is about trumps agenda. If you actually look at the winning stocks, the leaders, its two names, its apple, its amazon, its netflix. Its tech. But big tech. And growth. So i dont know that were set up for disappointment, necessarily, because of healthcare going through today or not going through at all. I agree. I think fair market for the value, extrump and exreforms is 23, 23. 50. Were basically talking about 8 upside in growth. A lot of this is coming from upside and energy, but its a positive. Ill give you a chance to come right after us, the media. Dont point at me najarian. Youre one of them and i pointed a firnger at myself. Its fine the point im right to make, a lot of discussion about this, almost an obsession about this, but the market is always going to kind of do what it wants. We know that. The market is an unfeeling, uncaring machine. Do you think no matter what happens in d. C. , were going to be okay from the upside . I know your targets not that higher than we are now, but it sounds like youre relatively optimistic. I think optimistic, constructive, yes. But for more upside on a margin, you do need to see progress in d. C. , to see significant upside. So let me frame it a different way and tell me if this is the right way to say it, then. Youre cautiously optimistic were going to be okay, but if we get some of these things done, its the icing. The cake is baked, were okay. This would be the icing, but were not doomed if it doesnt happen. Yes. Is that fair . I am optimistically cautious. Im not sure if thats quite the same thing. As cautiously optimistic a close cousin. Second cousin twice removed that nobody likes. And weve been talking about this reflation trade. This time around, its not just the u. S. , right . Were getting more and more evidence that the progress is coming from abroad. Europe, youre seeing a lot of good data coming out. Emerging markets. Again can i puncture one balloon, which is this infrastructure bill. 1 trillion over 10 years well, there is no bill right now, jim. No bill. Youre correct, but the proposal. The one im focused on and ive heard the most is 1 trillion over ten years is 100 billion a year. Thats meaningless for infrastructure stocks. At least half of that will go to services. It will go to small contractors, it will go to environmental consultants, things like that. You get down to 50 billion a year, that gets spread out over the entire infrastructure, basic materials, construction equipment, thats not going to weve got to go to break, but on infrastructure, too, jim, theres a lot of programs out there to benefit public housing. Trump wants to rebuild the inner cities and there are programs that are not getting any attention. That would be a good thing. Thats for a different segment. Maybe on power lunch. Hes always plugging. For Halftime Report, heres whats coming up a big day for the blitz. On the agenda, the next level for the iphone. And microns jump. And a twitter subscription fee. And also coming up, debating some beaten down energy names. And all next week, the halftime quarterly report. How have our traders done so far this year. Were talking about wins and losses, success and regret, all next week on the Halftime Report. Can i get some help. Watch his head. Im so happy. Whatever they went through, they went through together. Welcome guys. Life well planned. See what a Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor can do for you. Only one component president cnbc iq 100 hitting a multiyear high. Thats micron after yesterdays earnings report. The cnbc iq 100 is up 28. 5 in the last year. For more on the cnbc iq 100, go to cnbc. Com iiq100. Weve lost 50 points in a matter of minutes. The thinking is this. As we reported, Speaker Paul Ryan, a few moments ago, headed to the white house. There was a line of thinking that perhaps paul ryan is going to tell the president that they simply do not have the votes on the gop side to get this done. Either way, again, a lot of things happening. Its very fluid out of washington, d. C. , but you can see the market, at least in the shortterm, despite what all weve talked about, the market is very focused on this vote. Guys, can we bring up an intraday clatter of the dow . I want to show specifically, how when it came out that maybe this is whats going on. Again, maybe this is whats going on, reported by some in d. C. , were seeing on the farright side, the market is saying, okay, if you dont have the votes, were going to sell stocks at least for now. Lets hit our trader blitz. First up, apple. Sort of, kind of downgraded. I say that because it was downgraded from a strong buy to a buy at need hamm. So and remains a top pick. They still like it, but like it less. Like it a lot. Love it, but kind of love it. Theyve kind of pushed a little bit aside, because theyre smart. They have the strong buy on it. Stocks hitting 52week highs. It was at 42, now a 41. It remains the top pick. Heres the interesting part of this upgrade or downgrade. That says a lot about what they really think within apple. Analyst laura martin, one of the best in the business. Next up, micron. The stock soaring after earnings beat. They posted strong guidance, but jim, this has been a heartbreak stock for years for a lot of people. Yeah, if you have any gray hair, you definitely recognize, this is a cyclical stock. However, it is clearly in the upturned portion of the cycle. Why do i say that . Specifically, because pricing is going up. And that was a strong component of why they beat and guided higher. That seems to continue as the economy continues to reflate. So it should continue. Next puup, twitter. Struggling Company Reportedly considering a Premium Version of its tweet debt platform that would require a subscription fee. Josh brown . Yes, do it. Charge me. Ill pay you 20 a month to use tweet deck. Tweet deck is incredible. The Company Bought it and have updated here and there, yet theyve barely marketed it. Every influential twitter account is using it on a daily basis and would be happy to pay, from media organizations to celebrities to little old me. And ill tell you, its not so strange. Linkedin has all kinds of Premium Versions of its social network. Look at sfoalesforce. The whole thing is a subscription model. And you kill the bots and the bs stuff thats on there, too. Dont charge everyone. Charge the people who are power users. But bots dont pay. Im saying, clean it up and make sure you reach the people you want to reach. Finally, financials. The onetime group now the worstperforming sector this year. Are the financials still worth our viewers money . I think financials still remain the best sector to own at this point in time. If anything, i would be using the current weakness to add more even with a flattening yield curve . No, by financials, theres a number of different factors at play. The financials, yield curve side, deregulation, you know, discussion, again, financials have been going through a huge deleveraging process the last several years. We might see some leveraging there. Costs on the financial side likely start coming down. Thats going to free up cash. And on a payout basis, they look very attractive versus other sectors. So this might be a buying opportunity, in your view . Highest conviction over weight. Thats love. Thats true love. The narcotic the says it the pick of the week. Too bad its friday. A lot of love. The market catalysts and the headwinds beyond washington these days. Yes, there are things beyond washington, but first, the most actively traded stocks on the nyse. Bank of america, ford, vale. The Halftime Report back after this. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. I am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. And i know a thing or two about trading. So i trade with e trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the. Get off the computer traitor i wont. cannon sound i wont. Is happening before our eyes. Shift in Human History sixty to seventy Million People are moving to cities every year. At pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha in real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets. Partner with pgim the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Hi, everybody. Im sue herrera. Here is your cnbc news update at this hour. Scotland yard releasing the photo of the london attacker, khalid masood, who killed four people and wounded 50 others at the Uk Parliament before being shot dead by police. Londons counterterror chief says his birth name was Adrian Russell and he had been radicalized through the years. And amtrak train derailed at new york citys penn station during morning rush hour, suspending service. The train sideswiped a new Jersey Transit train coming into the station. Amtrak telling cnbc all 248 passengers were taken off the train and on to the platform safely. Ousted egyptian president Hosni Mubarak is back home, free following his release from custody after Legal Proceedings that took years to complete. He left a cairo hospital this morning, under very heavy security. And a wisconsin high schooler is being hailed as a hero, after he saved a choking classmate. Ian brown gave his friend the heimlich maneuver and was able to dislodge the food from his throat. Brown crediting his quick thinking to the training he received in a youth police program. Amazing. Thats the news update this hour. Brian, back to you. He is a hero, and good for him and even better for the other guy. Sue, thank you very much. Lets bring in Kayla Tausche and eamon javers. A lot of talk about where paul ryan is right now. What do we know . Hes here at the white house. Camera crews outside the west wing just spotted the speaker of the house walking into the pilgd and a sign of how fastmoving and fluid all this is. The white house would not confirm that the speaker of the house was coming here to the white house until a few moments after he was already in the building. So, clearly, the speaker of the house has come here to deliver a message of some kind to the president of the United States, whether that message is they dont have the votes up on capitol hill, whether the message is that they should pull the bill, or whether the message is, they should go forward, we simply dont know right now, brian. We dont know a lot. And Kayla Tausche, theres a very interesting scenario here, because we expect this vote to happen, but from the sources that you have spoken, is there a chance that if the gop feels it really does not have the votes, that they simply delay it again . Surely, brian, they can pull the bill right until the vote happens. Theres nothing that says just because its on the floor schedule, it has to take place. And if they are sure they dont have the votes, if they dont believe its going to be close, thats probably wold taken, rather than take this out to the floor and have a lengthy debate about it only for it to go in an unfavorable direction. What i can tell you is that the Freedom Caucus, which is the conservative wing of the Republican Party, which had been the most vocal proponents of this bill is currently holding an offcampus meeting for its members up until the vote actually take place. Throughout the morning, weve been trying to track certain members of the caucus down for comment. Weve heard things from governor and congressman mark sanford saying hes struggling how to lower cost. Weve heard congressman franks of arizona saying hes optimistic that his party will do the right thing. And he seemed to signal that was voting in favor of the bill. Theres a split within that caucus, and it really comes down to what they will do, because its such a large group within the Republican Party. To that end, nbc news is now reporting that by their count, there are 32 republican members of congress who either have said they are voting against it, or they are leaning toward voting against it. That is a very high number for a piece of legislation that can only afford no more than 21 defectors to actually get passed. So 32 would be a very steep number, if, in fact, that is what the speaker of the house and the majority leader are expecting to come to pass later this afternoon. Everything is fluid, though. Absolutely, everything. Schedule, votes, you name it. Well keep you posted. And kayla, thank you very much, appreciate that. Now, by the way, and josh brown, were going to get to you in a second. Were getting headlines. You just saw at the bottom of the screen, if youre listening on the radio, another congressman coming out saying, were trending yes to the vote. That according to reuters. Look at the dow minute by minute. In the last ten minutes, the dow lost 60 points and has now retraced about half of what it lost. Thats fluidity. So lets keep in mind, this is algorithms. Normal, human beings, on an everyday bases are not reevaluating whether or not they like their shares of google or facebook or cocacola based on what a senator says to a reporter in the rorotunda. If you think this is human activity, you should rethink that. Its not whats going on. Well, humans did reprogram some of the software. Okay, fair. This is true. We think. We think. Allegedly. Wait, wait. So heres the market heres the market point. Heres the market point. You could have a lot more volatility than what were currently having on this or anything else. Weve seen stranger things. So if youre in the market right now and you think you have some kind of edge about how 300someodd congresspeople are going to vote on one bill or another, thats interesting that you think that. Most people dont and probably shouldnt be acting as though they do. Let the algorithms fight this one out and maybe give it a little bit of time before you run screaming through your portfolio. Yesterdays vix was the highest close since february. And its still low. I was going to point that out, its still low. Some of the bestperforming stocks are the hospital stocks that are seen benefit fg a repeal does not happen, because it might cut their spending. The hospital stocks are sort of acting like the bill will either fail or it wont happen. Either way, the european markets also closing for the day. And for the week, not a big move here. Youve got germany and france, up a little bit. In fact, not only germanys up, france is down, a mixed trade, for the week, both germany and france did rise fractionally, but perhaps the european markets also kind of waiting on this, as well. We are waiting on a very brief commercial break. Were going to take it. More Halftime Report, which is a great leadin to power lunch, were back after the break. Various shouting heigh ho its off to work we go woman on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. And each job created by the Energy Industry supports two others in the community. Altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. These are jobs that natural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing americas emissions. Energy lives here. Please repeat the objective. All while reducing americas emissions. Thrivent mutual funds. Managed by humans, not robots. Before investing, carefully read and consider fund objectives, risks, charges and expenses in the prospectus at thriventfunds. Com. All right. Heres where the u. S. Markets stand. The dow is up four points, but that does not tell the story of the last 20 minutes. The dow has taken more turns than lombard street in san francisco. Only pete got that. Were up 60 points. We fell, we were negative, about down 10 or 20. Weve come back. Do they have the votes, do they not . Well find out. Joining us now, jean todd, First Bank Wealth Management director and ceo of orrius asset management. Bring some midwestern cohesion and calm to this conversation, please. I will do my best. Youre just trying to run your clients money. Youve got all this stuff going on. Well talk about outside the beltway in a minute. How are you managing money and managing your clients and managing emotion during this time . Emotion is key. The market right now is trading on emotions. And or at least the computers are. The computers are. I dont know whats going to happen with this Health Care Bill. Do you care . Not as an american or a health care recipient, but as an invest investor . I dont, and you shouldnt care. Thanks for coming on, gene. Let me tell you why you shouldnt care. At the end of the day, its not going to matter. In this thing passes, maybe the market rallies a point, a percentage or two. If it doesnt pass, maybe it trades down. Drops a percent or two. But longterm, this market is not trading on what happens with health care. This market is trading on expectations, infrastructure tax reform, deregulation. Dirty secret, i tend to agree. However, the market does view this vote as key to the bigger things for the market, such as the aforementioned tax reforms. You obviously, do you think its a proxy . I think hes going to get tax reform, irrespective of what happens with health care. Republicans stand for reducing taxes. Thats going to happen. Infrastructure, i believe, is going to happen. Deregulation is going to happen. Okay. But the markets are counting on that. And so, if one or two of those things dont happen, then watch out. So, carrie, gene is saying this is sort of a monolith. This Health Care Vote is a story unto itself that will be unrelated to the bigger things. To you agree . I agree to some extent. Every piece of legislation that goes through this congress, and this is the new administration, matters. The sentiment, of course, has mattered. Weve had the market rally from the election to its peak, up 14 . Its backed off almost 2 . Well see what happens at the close of the day. So, there is something about it that matters. It affects all of americans. But more important is, is the economy strengthening . Are we going to have these policies in place that people have been expecting . Ive referred to this reality check. We have to think about whether the market is overly enthusiastic or reasonably enthusiastic about whats going on in the economy, the market, and the administration right now. You know, then, carrie, take it outside of this. Because were going to get a vote or not. Maybe it will be delayed. Its got to happen at some point. It fails to pass, to genes point, go up or down a couple of percent. Outside of the d. C. Halo, what is most important to you and your clients . I think gdp. I think its all about whether the economy is improving. And weve got expectations of a reasonably good economy. You saw the fed decide to raise interest rates. The fed theyre not crazy people. Theyre very thoughtful and studio. And they have examined all parts of the economy. They think its Strong Enough to sustain through higher rates, and lets just see if we can grow gdp more than 1. 5 to 2 this year. We havent seen it yet. Wed like to. Wed like earnings to go up more than a few percent this year. If were looking at 130 this year or 140 next year on the s p 500, youre close to 17 times as a multiple for next year. It would be great if the multiple is lower than that, because earnings will be greater through higher revenue, not just lower tax rates, which would be great. But higher revenues and sustained margin. So if thats the case, and if were saying gdp is important, lets remind everyone, health care is one sixth of gdp. Lets go further and remind people that, one of the biggest problems with our recovery and why its been slow is youve got a huge swath of people who are not spending money. They would spend money if they had more income coming in. And then when you think about whats actually in this bill, heaven forbid it passes, it represents a huge betrayal of the voter base of president trump. Thats number one. Number two, youre talking about a 5,400 tax cut annually for the top households and possibly a third of an income cut for the lowest income people. And those are the people who are the most likely to spend new money. Whereas, if you get another 5,400 to a 10 million household, theres no uptick in the economy, because its just more money in treasury bonds. So if were actually saying that gdp is important, then, in fact, this would be a negative, if it went through. Goldman sachs estimated obamacare created 500,000 jobs since 2012. Granted, not flashy, coal miner jobs, but jobs, nonetheless. I dont know that we want to see this pass, if we want a faster gdp growth. Gene, your take . I just wanted to say, i did agree with carrie about clients being focused on gdp. Its about fundamentals when you think about how the economy is doing. And that is an area of concern, because if you go back a month ago, most economists were saying the gdp was going to grow around 3 in q1 and q2, but look a few weeks ago, now its down into the mid2s. I dont know if anyone saw this, a couple days ago, the atlanta fed came out with a fed now model thats calling for gdp growth in q1 for less than 1 . Does that mean stocks are going to drop then, gene . I think if you see a gdp growth number less than 1 , then i think stocks are going to drop. Quick, weve got to go. Comment before real quick, weve been talking here u. S. , right . Lets not forget International Markets play a very significant part of the equation, as well. The issue weve had the last several years, u. S. Lifts up, the rest of the world doesnt, and we basically hit a wall. This time around on the international front, were seeing data come through. And very importantly, the dol r dollar, i would call it peakish. We could see some weakness in the dollar. Thats going to create upset and surprise. Where do you go given all the stuff you just talked about . I think globally, biggest value at this point, it is em and europe. Better than us the u. S. Has been a great market for years. Brazils had a heck of a run already. Expectations are priced in. Dollar is high. Can you be a little bit more narrow for us . Em is a big world out there. What emerging markets look particularly interesting to you . India, china, i would even throw brazil in there. Wow. Threefourths of the brics. Not russia. Im nervous about china. You know, i dont know if growth is going to be 6 . They manipulate their currency. And maybe the data. And the data. Theyve done infrastructure already. Theyve done housing. Im really concerned about the numbers that we might see out of china. I was out there just four weeks ago and i was surprised by how upbeat the local investor the data wing, does explain one part of the equation, but youve got to think also, what is the fed doing and the dollar doing . These things are not he had winds. It could unlock value. Good macro discussion there, that maybe thats all thats happening in d. C. , while important to a lot of people, is not the most important thing to our viewers and their money. Which is probably a good thing. Gene todd, great to see you. Carrie firestone, thank you. Thank you. All right, next up, pete is tracking unusual activity in one energy stock, up 24 , over the past year. His bullish bet on it, next. Plus, calls of the day on retail and maybe yet another problem for the beaten down retailers. More Halftime Report is coming up. music plays heigh ho heigh ho heigh ho heigh ho its off to work we go heres to all of you early risers, whats up man . Gogetters, and shouldbe sleepers. From all of us at delta, because the ones who truly change the world, are the ones who cant wait to get out in it. Welcome back. Lets get right to pete najarian, whos tracking some unusual activity. Well, brian, its an interesting thing, because you go back to wednesday and kmi, Kinder Morgan had huge upside buying in there as well. 10,000 calls were bought to the upside. Right now, look at Energy Transfer partners, very aggressive buying. Stock was a little bit lower when they started this buying. So those options are starting to move a little bit higher. They were buying the april 37 calls. Gives them about a month, obviously, in time frame. 5,000 of those were trading for about 45 cents. Ive got one more real quickie just to keep up with this theme. Just about five minutes ago, ete also just hit with some huge upside buying about 11,000 calls out in may, as well. So youre seeing this theme play out right now in the pipelines. Im in these etps. Ill probably be in for about two to three weeks. I love this trade. What is your holding the period, though, on this trade . Im going to probably be in there two to three weeks, its an april trade, that gives me a full month. Ill be in two to three weeks. Hopefully we get that move. Stock has been around that 35 level multiple times, seems to move up around 40 when its been down there before. So im expecting to see that again. Pete najarian looking at some of those pipelines. Thank you very much. Three big calls today on the street on retail. Thats a segment thats been struggling, to make an understatement. Lets start with under armour. Under armour getting some love, upgraded at jeffries. Lets talk about under armour guys, anybody want to pick up this trade on ua, jeffries saying, they did a survey of 2,000 people and says their trend showed that the brand remains strong. Im sure it does, but the stock does not. The problem is theyre expecting it to turn around. And you can do this sort of investing. Its usually quite painful. It usually results in a hole in your hand because youre catching a falling knife. Wait for the stock to bottom. You dont need to be a hero and call the bottom in under armour. Look for something thats trending better, like nike, for instance, which totally brushed off the lowquality earnings beat from two days ago and is roaring back up again. You just dont need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife here. The next call is, citigroup. Another upgrade. This time of pvh. Upgrading it, guys, to a buy. There are really three reasons, they see eps growth, see the valuation being attractive, and they think theyre going to see topline sales growth into calvin klein and other licensed brands. Incredible job of these acquisitions over the years, obviously. So thats been the thing. Look at the leadership, and when the ceo is on the air, he gave you that sense that everything does seem to be okay for them. It doesnt seem that way for very many of the retailers out there. I would take the shot on ua before any of those brand names within thatpvh portfolio. I would just say under armour, we all know the negatives. Theyre extraordinarily discounted and if not fully, stock has been cut in hatch really not on nothing terrible just a bit of weakening in certain areas and High Expectations that led into that. You dont have those High Expectations now. Take a look at price action. You might have a fail breakdown here. Jim mentions. Dont catch a falling knife. Momentum is actually divergent positively from price. I would take a shot on that before pvh. Sketchers upgraded to outperform at cowen and company. Theyre transitioning their entire model to International Wholesale distributor and they like that. Pete, thought on skechers . I get hassled enough on twitter we dont bring this name up enough. Also margins. People hassle you that we dont talk about skecher . Yes. Its under armour, nike. That one person. I understand. Guys, you are a sector guy. Wells fargo making a call worried that gasoline prices are going to rise even as oil moderates, for a number of different reasons. Do you have a macro view on retail . Are you concerned that the consumer will get pinched off in a number of ways . Great call. Most of them are down. Since beginning of last year. Highlevel forces, are you entering now more of an inflationary environment . This area has done exceptionally well as inflations pick up, theres obvious Pressure Point margins. Plus these are very leveled models. Interest rates move higher. You see more and more wage pressure kick in. The secular trend remains you dont like it . Bottom line, retail relative. More on the trump trade as we go value hunt iing. Waiting on washington as well. The dow is up 12 points. Everything is in a holding pattern. Were going to find you some value opportunities. Stick around. Advisor and team who understand where you come from know you can craft an Investment Plan as strong as your values know that together, you can establish a meaningful legacy with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management® team. I am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. And i know a thing or two about trading. So i trade with e trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the. Get off the computer traitor i wont. cannon sound welcome back to the half time report. Key Health Care Vote expected today maybe, maybe not. Hovering around 2. 4 . Youve been a seller of the tenyear at these levels, anthony grisanti. Tell us why. I think the Health Care Plan gets done, the buyers that came in begin to liquidate and the trend has been higher in the te tenyear and that continues once the Health Care Bill passes. Scott nations, what are the technicals telling you about the trade . Yeah. Very interesting chart. We see it at the tenyear futures have rallied back to the trend lines, defined by the low. And again in february. We are right there. Given that trend line it would really take heavy lifting to get above that level right now. Its a level we are going to watch very closely along with that vote. For more futures now, watch the live show at 1 00 pm eastern tuesday and thursday. The half time report is back after this. This is where i trade andrs. Manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley infrastructure plans we talked about. If you believe it, a lot of basic materials will need to be transported around the country, requiring rail cars which do wear out for a while. Trinity industries make rail cars. They trade at book value right now. This is when you get into a company and learn about it, a lawsuit they lost a couple of years ago about guardrails they make. Theyll probably have that lawsuit overturned. That is a projection, not a fact. Thats why you should be in this stock. Final trade . Highlight energy. Decent amount of weakness in this space. Oil prices have come back down to the 40s. Its a good value area where technology continues to advance and i think these companies should be able to outperform. We talk about apple. Its an incredible story. You look at micron and the chips. Keep an eye on sirus logic. Im on that train, too, only apple. Your over trains, the train car and this train. Josh . Internals in general have not been great. You had a lot of areas in the market take some damage that will probably take time to repair. So dont feel like youre in a rush with any names. Mind your stops. Thank you very much. Power lunch begins right now. Thank you, brian. Of course, well see you in a few moments. Im Michelle Caruso had been cabrera. What were watching and all of wall street is watching at this hour. The house will be voting, we think, on the final version of the Health Care Bill. Well see. Vote expected in the coming hours. Well be live on capitol hill with the late, breaking details straight ahead. There are a lot of them. Were expecting to hear from the white house. Live shot from the press briefing room. Sean spicer will kick things off some time in the next half hour. Well carry that for you. We think health care will be the very big focus for today. And also, we are all over the