Its got to give at some point. It does give. That is running out of steam. The dollar rise and the basically the bond selloff. You think thats going to run its course . I do. I think were still going to be anchored to europe, scott, and i think theyre going to be providing an awful lot of stimulus over there. Pushing on rates still. This is what draghi said. Im telling you what he said. He has put that trillion dollars where his mouth is. He will continue to put the additional 700 billion that he has potentially there. I think those are catalysts for lower rates over there. Weiss, im talking about over here, doc. You know, were anchored to that. How are we going to run from 240 up to 300 on the tenyear. We already are on their way up there. Tenyear yields up 65 basis points in a month. Are we going to continue that rise . Thats your question. Isnt it . Yeah. If its going to cause the stock market to wilt. Do you we agree or disagree . Partly. Im trying to be nice before the holiday. Go back to the normal weiss. I felt very uncomfortable, to tell you the truth. For me its about the rate of the increase. Well still have low rates for an extended period of time. Im on a faster schedule in terms of rate hikes Going Forward. Faster than the fed is going to be. I think the world is actually seeing where it is. In terms of what happens in europe and what happens in ja n japan. Its taking the vig out of their ability to buy rates because of the hedging costs. I think that, no, its not going to kill our rally. I think that this rally continues. Im not really worried about rates. I think they stabilize right here in terms of the tenyear, and currency i think its gone where its going to go from now and stays here. I agree. Lets go to paul richards. Do you agree . Theyre right. I mean, financial conditions, though, are really tight right now, and this is what i think the market might be missing, scott. Theyre looking at the fact that the tlar is no longer a transit other rally. This is really now. You got the tenyear at 240 wrash couple that together. Mortgage is over 4 . Things are getting really tight out there. Meanwhile, absolutely. Corona is enjoying this, as are europe. What if if actually when you get the fed hiking in december, you get a more dovish hike . You get comments from yellen saying, well, look, i dont need to go three times next year. They wont say that, but she doesnt need to because you get a president on the 20th of january. Youre not going to see legislation pass to, what, early summer. We wont see money in our pockets for a tax cut until, what, 12 months time. Were discounting that. You know how the market does that. And the market has done it correctly, scott, but now having done it, we could be in overtime. My view, i actually would agree with you. I think what were going to see is we see the dollar maybe has one more little leg up, and then starts reversing. Then rates start coming back to 220 in the tenyear, and then start to take off until the end of the year where zbloosh. Have we overdone it . Now its time to be a contrarian. He is bullish. When does the dollar become in the headlines, and i think thats around corporate earnings, and thats in january, and i think thats when it becomes a problem. In the nearterm you can make the ar umt that you want to pair back markets because theyre going to struggle if the u. S. Dollar continues to accelerate, but i think right now the narrative is all about the u. S. Consumer which is feeling much better, feeling confident, and i think the Holiday Season and that has the potential to prevent us from a significant decline before the end of the year. I dont know how much further were going to accelerate because i agree with you. This feels real late, but the question becomes, okay, when is that correction coming . Im not sure you get that until january rolls around and people in management see sweet stocks saying, hey, this us u. S. Dollar is going to be a problem for Profit Margins, which, by the way, Profit Margins have actually bounced strongly. Theyre up to 8. 5 . Thats a nice recovery at six quarters of declines. You know, yesterday we had the four major averages all hit new highs at the same time for the First Time Since 1999. Youve got the s p at 2,200. Dow 19,000. Are those sell signals or a signal to keep buying into this market . Well, we have not seen how long can you go on, pete . Forever . Right. Its a great question. I think if the dollar continues to rise, i think everybody on the desk seems to have the same thought process. Dollar continues to rides. Thats going to be a problem. Everybody seems to be at least sitting on the desk right now and seems to be in the camp that, you know what, the dollar probably is at a pause level. Maybe theres a little bit more and maybe we start to see it pull back. Under that scenario, i think the market does have more up side. If the dollar continues to rise, we are not going to see as much up side. I can tell you this, we always use the option market as our tell. Look at the volatility marks right now. We are extremely low, scott. Its a great opportunity for people to protect at alltime highs. That i think is something that sits right in front of the folks right now to be able to manage themselves, to understand that with volatility, under 13, which is absolutely extraordinary to me, given the circumstances of the marketplace, that under that scenario with the low volatility, why not protect . Thats what you would want to do. I think when you are really looking at the overall market right now, we arent seeing buyers, buyers, buyers any longer. We arent seeing the financial buyers we had seen right before and right after trump and the victory for trump. I think thats something you have to hold back a little bit, put on the reigns a little bit. If you look at my disclosures right now, scott, they are half of what they were a week ago, and that tells you that im taking stuff off, and im finding less areas to put money back to work. Its infrequent that conditions come together to make such a strong call in the shortterm, but this is one of them. This rally should continue to year end, and the reason is very simple. There is still cash on the sidelines. Cash that was built up during many scares during this year. The growth scare or the First Quarter, brexit, and then the election. Anybody who has cash on the sidelines, whether theyre professional or retail are looking at the market and panicking, and theyre saying i have to get into this. The other thing, though, when you look at these Interest Rates, and paul, i heard you on Mortgage Rates at 4 , we were looking for a client a week ago, and we still see a three handle on many of the terms that are out there. Whether its three or four, whether the tenyear is at 237 or, remember, in may of 2013 it was above three, these are very low rates, and i think all of us would agree on that. These are very low late rates. Theyre not high enough to stamp out this technical rally that will continue to year end where. Can i put it in perspective. Its not like weve gone up 20 since trump was elected. Were up about 2 overall in the market, and we were very close to here. Maybe 2. 5. Were close to here just about three months ago because we had corrected somewhat before the election. Weve not run away. Its actually been the rotation to financials which have led us up. I looked at the sector moves, and the average sector move was 2 3erz. Weve had Consumer Staples come down. Its sort of like in the realm of realism where we are. However, i think the point were trying to make is that the most impressive part you can use impressive however you want, is the move in rates. Right. The move on the dollar. Right, but i believe thats warranted,ing and i would argue thats come off more of what weve seen in wage growth, cpi, except for this last number and expectations of coming inflation, no . Yes. But from wage growth, which is an inflationary number, because that leads to other areas, and crude, weve had back up. You have the underpinnings of ip flags, and you didnt necessarily need trump to do it. Its very helpful to it, right, because those policies are very inflationary. I think it works. Then the other thing i would say is i understand the market completely in retrospect. Not going to say i was there beforehand, because i wasnt, with a lot of cash, but you are coming off eight years of really negativity where everything was sort of doom and gloom. Were not doing this right or this right. You have a guy come out and saying, hey, we are great. We are going to be greater. We are going to put money to work, and everybody is saying, you know what, the skies are lifti lifting, theres opt missile. Im putting money to work. You have that pentup optimism. But then you ask the question whether you are getting ahead of yourself . It. Thats a good point that steven is making. Its not the time to have a complicated strategy. The time is to think simpsimpli. There is confidence right now where, we are going to see going out and spending. You look at a fedex or ups at alltime highs today. I think you cant have that complicated strategy. Yes, its warranted to be concerned about the u. S. Dollar, but thats a story that you flip into 2017. You want to keep buying industrials . I think the industrial i think its a value out there. I did that just not sure it will work out. Ill see you next cycle. Ill tell you where you may want to go. There are a couple of places that i do find that are attractive and unattractive. Take a look at the you see macys selling at 17. 5 times. Thats ludicrous. I was talking to a guy who is a great retail investor. He is saying have you seen these Department Stores . 17. 5, 18 times. You couldnt give it away at 10 times. Just six months ago. Its unbelievable. Subprime lending will be a challenge. There are other industrials. Im not playing there. There are plenty of stocks that forget gm. There are plenty of stocks out there to choose from. You dont have to buy just the financials. Well, i already mentioned the pharmaceuticals. You know, i did mention gm. Thats one. He drove that one off a cliff. Whats the next one you got . Hang on. Well give you more as time goes on. I cant give it to you all at once. Were doing a segment later on about where the value is. You want me to do it all right now . John and i were just talking about this. You want to move that up. He and i agree on retail. Thats one. Well get a lot of the Technology Stocks that have sold off in the last few months. The intels and ciscos, the apples of the world. Jimmy is talking. Li listen, value has outperformed growth. Like the banks . I would rather buy growth tech, which has sold off here like the fangs, facebook, apple, those names, and there are other names as well, but the strategy is value versus growth. Value is clearly outperformed in 2016. This is not going to be in 2017 a value market. Im looking for growth. I want growth names, which have pulled back. Its a russell market. Its a market that wants financials. It wants a cyclical slant. I want opportunities in names that have pulled back. Tech has offered you that opportunity. I think, pete, over the last couple of weeks has pointed that out. There are a lot of names in technology that have gone on sale. I would much rather own them than find some value name that could be a value trap. Yeah, but you have to remember one thing. Growth outperformed value for ten years up until this year, and that is truly man bites dog stuff. Thats not the way its supposed to go. You have one year now, this year, that value has outperformed growth. It is more likely that that continues. Especially why . Theres no evidence of that. Thats just speculation on your part. Do you want to be in something that is 80 times or ten times . Were talking about whatever Department Store at 18 times that had gone from ten times. I would rather be in gm at six times earnings. Weve been in multiple environments where you have seen rates rise and the multiple on the market has been has expanded. It signals that theres growth finally coming into the marketplace, and the market is willing to you can make a very convincing case on a discounted cash flow that if the Interest Rate is going up, the value of the stock has to go down, and the multiple has to compress. This is enlightening, but i need more value picks. Im not sure, but as far as me, i trade out i traded out of x and ak steel. What am i in now . Cliffs natural. Clf. Im in freeport, fcx. Both are having great days today. A lot of unusual paper. In other words, buying in clf again today. Its out in february. Its not just shortterm paper. Its longerterm. Thats a value. Back to the value for growth thing. Energy became value in 2016. Thats why value has outperformed yeartodate. Coming into the year energy became value because it got so significantly depressed. You know what Energy Equities have done. Thats why value has outperformed. I totally disagree. I have been Underweight Energy all year, and its been a terrific year. Im so uncomfortable not to be part of an arg you want auto here. So left out. Pete, do you have a value pick for us . Well, you know what, as you know, i dont look at it that way, and i never look for just value or just growth, and ive always said the combination of both, which is why joe pointed out, but thats why technology has had a great year. Look at what microsoft has done. Look at intel pushing towards the highs, you know, throughout the year. Let me rephrase it. Let me rephrase it. Okay. Yeah, what do you have . Bring it to me . Were at alltime highs, and a lot of sectors have rallied. In the face of all that, i dont necessarily mean a growth stock versus a value stock. Im talking about a stock that you see even in the face of this rally that weve had that still looks reasonably cheap enough if you want to use those terms, to buy it here. Absolutely. Ill give you one name right now. Microsoft. I did that just a we can or so ago. I actually bought the stock. Not the options. I bought the stock. Whenever i make a move like that, scott, that means its something that im doing more for the longterm. Ill give you another one. How about yesterday industrial stocks we talked about ball corp. Look what thats doing today. I think there are names out there that it have value, but they also have growth. If you have got the combination, scott, youve got a winning trade regardless. Thats why i like specific names right now, and those are the names that im buying the stock, not the options. Ill give you one that i started buying yesterday. John, we had talked about this before the show came on. Hain. Stock got crushed because of an accounting issue. It bounced 10 i think last week or so because the committee came out and said nothing intentional. Well wait for more clarity. That stock was almost cut in half. Its a valuable franchise. Its a great story. A great company. Run by a really good ceo. What about the notion that the fed could be raising rates at a quicker pace than the market thinks is possible right now . I think that notion is incredibly unlikely. The other thing ill throw into this debate is on november 30th, we have an opec meeting. The market is basically fully pricing a decent outcome. There are so many moving parts on that one. This one could go to the wire. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report . Big names dropping like a rock today. Were talking juno, lily, biogen and more. Is this a great time to jump in . Also coming up a great pick from one of our halftime traders is mowing down the bears . The Halftime Report with scott wapner is back in two minutes. Alpha seems more elusive today. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of Prudential Health care taking a hit. Eli lily announcing its alzheimers drug failed in a late stage trial. Doc, you bought lily. Bought lily. I bought it, judge, typical doc fashion. Talking about myself. What is it called again . Brian, i mean, this is what you did with wells. This one had the blood. The blood in the streets on the alzheimers drug, we wish they werent announcing bad phase three resuls. I didnt have a dog in the hunt, but i was rooting for the patients. Nonetheless, the fact that they erase 10 billion or 1 billion in market cap for that, why would you not buy it . For that . For a drug thats not on the markets . As eloquent as ever. The next book has to be docs little cliches. Theyre good. Baby with the bath water. Throw the baby out with the bath water. Pete. Could you buy lily as well . Help me out. I did not. You know what im already im in merck. Im in pfizer, and theres no babies and bath water, but i think quite honestly when you are looking at this and you s see i actually think that the maybe the better spot in terms of what i am looking at anyway, when i look at biogen trading 1 times erpgz, and thats getting pulled off because of the same story that is attached to lily, and i understand theres competition in the whole world in the environment of all that, but i look at what theyre able to produce, scott, and its a biotech similar in some ways to amgen where its traded like a pharma name. I ataker there . Im still focused on the medical equipment and devices, medtronics that got smashed yesterday. I got out, and that has proven to be the right thing to do, so i had my first smart move for the year. Now as i look at it its taken longer than that, but medtronics itself isnt steve supposed to be the the selloff in medtronics presents an opportunity. I think you know, the revolutionary technology thats going on here when you visit these facilities and you see the equipment and the health care and the software right now and the incorporation it insulates you from some of the biotech. Thats the focus area for me, and, yes, medtronics selloff. I like having this to myself. In terms of health care, if im going to own if im going to own a pharma stock, i dont expect it to act like a biotech stock because i dont have the same growth aspects of it. What you had was you had all these investors going into pharma for the yield. Yield plays are out of vogue anyway right now as you pointed out with what were seeing with rates. I would rather own, like pete did, going to biotech because you have many shots on goal and much higher growth. Yes, i think its a good name. Im out of Health Care Completely now. Have been out of it for about, i guess, a couple of weeks. Im looking to get back in. Im still concerned about pharma. I dont think that trump may necessarily tb hands off there. If you take a look what we know how it he feels about lobbyists, but the pledge he is having people come into his administration say, the pharma lobbia has spent twice as much as the next biggest lobby group, so i think he might go directly at them, but if if not, its still going to be a live issue. Whereas, biotech is removed from it. I prefer biotech. Im looking to reload there. Its a great sector. The pharma valuation is too high for the growth they have. What do you know . I disagree with steve. Pharma and biotech pharma and biotech have completely decoupled in the last two weeks. You had a momentary pop after the election in pharma, and its been completely given back. Now, i think if you are looking at lily, which is interesting even though alzheimers is a no mans land. Its a Bermuda Triangle for research dollars. Dont go there. If thats your thesis, then you have to also look at bristolmyers, which is also very well diversified, and its still languishing after the failed thats from august. Yeah. I mean, its had a little bit, but its still way undervalued. Bristolmyers has to be on anybodys buy list. The trades on todays top movers. Thats ahead in the blitz. Plus, a double dose of unusual activity today. The retailer that traders think is set for a pop and why pete is getting bullish on a mining name. Halftime report back in two minutes. Ska. First up, game stop. Meeting on the top line getting a disappointing Holiday Season forecast, though. Steve weiss. This stock just trends down quarter after quarter afternoon quarter. Its a cash flow machine. Thats why people like it. Its heavily shorter, which is why it doesnt go down so much. I would stay away from it. The trend to go into download is still there. Its always going to be there. Its just something i kind of think doc, urban. Higher markdowns, judge. Thats one of the main thing i got out of the call was that they had to mark down substantially. Thus, they missed the bottom line number by right around a nickel. The stock is suffering down about 10 at midsession. It could very well test into the low 30s on the move. Thats where it came up from on the last one. Hpq. Jimmy, what do you see . Look, this is another one in the old Line Technology spectrum that has not had a good response to earnings. Im thinking intel and cisco is comparable there. People are saying there isnt that much growth Going Forward. That may or may not be true. As the labor market picks up, youll see more computers and printers being sold by hpq, but the thing is its an attra attractively priced stock. Nine times earnings. If you are looking for value appropriate of what we are talking about earlier, this is a potential candidate. New highs for fedex and ups again. More to come. Unbelievable story. You think about right now the dynamic surrounding both of these companies. They were both able to raise prices 5 this year. The going to raise prices again next year, and the price is going to stick. Theyre going to have a sur kmarj thats going to increase their bottom line. They utilize a technology in a way weve never seen before. You have the orion system that will save over 400 million alone for ups. Think about it. If they could get drivers to be more efficient, one mile for each driver at ups not driven, 50 million to the bottom line. Love both these names. Amazon, nice recovery since that initial postelection selloff where. Yeah. Yeah. They had that postelection selloff. Got all the way down to 720. Pushed all the way up almost to 790, but now they have the pilot strike. Thats why youre seeing a pullback today. I dont think thats a major issue unless its extending a little further. The pilot started that strike just yesterday, so well see how long that goes. If its as short as i presume it will be probably, i dont think it will be a huge effect. You have black friday coming up, judge, and any time youve got some headaches in front of you, you dont want that right now. I think theyve got to get this thing settled, and i think they got to get back to work. Amazon seems to want to go higher. The fang stocks are all starting to move again. This pulls into both those last two stocks. Everybody said amazon is getting into package delivery. Its going to cripple ups and fed fedex. They had to get into that business because ups and fedex couldnt handle as much volume as they had. To petes point, i think they sell the strike relatively quickly because they have to. They cant just hand this off to the other package. All right. Another alltime high for deere. They beat on the top and bottom lean. Josh brown has been a big bull on that stock. Owned it for a while. Hey, josh. Whats up, guys . Whats going on . 101 and change. Its up 10 today. What do you do . Yeah. Its up 40 over the last year. I think the takeaway, scott, is that the fundamentals have not improved. However, expectations have gotten so low that it almost didnt matter. This is a classic cyclical, and if you are waiting for the fundamental turn, you are going to miss huge gains, and i think if were really going to rebuild america and woulder going to do things like tax breaks and things of that nature, you are going to see a fundamental turn. The question is when is all of the benefit of that taken out of the stock, and i would say maybe were halfway there. I love that will he used huge. I love that he used that he. He is the best farm to table analyst we have between deere and shake shack, is he right there. Thats what you call i dont have time to wait. Bottom line is you are sticking with the trade. I am. Let me tell you, there are a host of these stocks. Caterpillar is another good example. I really believe that you get to a point where youve got to down shift in the cycle. Everyone throws in the towel on these names, and then they start to work, and everyone scratches their head why. If you look at deers numbers on the surface, scott, it was not a good quarter. The thing is it was better than expected. Theres room for that fundamental improvement to start happening. In the meantime, youve been paid a nice dividend yield, and you have a management that did all the right things while the cycle was in a down turn. This will be a name to continue to hold to. Have a good thrngs. See you back on the desk. Happy thanksgiving. Josh brown. Record number of people expected to fly this holiday weekend. Well head to chicagos Ohare Airport and well look at what a smooth thanksgiving will mean for the airlines. Plus, golds losses are accelerating. Now at the lowest level since february. The event that one trader says could send the medal much lower than it is now. Thats coming up next. The dow up 24 points. S p down two. Nasdaq down just about 19. Biggest loser today down onethird of a percent. Sue herrera has the latest headlines. Hi, sue. Hi, scottie. Heres whats happening this hour, everybody. Speaking today, german chancellor Angela Merkel told her parliament she is not happy about the possible demise of the Transpacific Partnership trade agreement. Earlier this week donald trump vowed to pull out of the tpp during his first day in office. A rare handwritten poem signed by holocaust victim ann frank sold at auction today for 148,000. Three times the expected price. Its dated in 1942. Officials in florida received multiple calls after a bright flash lit up the sky late yesterday. The fireball, which is believed to be caused by a meteor, was captured on Police Dash Cam video. If you are heading for home for the holidays, get ready for lots of company. This year is supposed to set a record for Airline Travel with 27 million passengers expected to board flights for the thanksgiving day holiday. Cnbcs phil lebeau is in the thick of it all, as he always is this time of year, inside chicagos Ohare Airport. Hi, phil. Well, well try and get back to phil in just a moment as he covers the holiday rush hour. Our thanks to sue herrera. John is tracking the unusual activity in a retail stock that surged nearly 15 in a month. His bullish bet on it is coming up next. First, though, Tyler Matheson with a look at whats coming up with power. Coming up at the top of the hour on power lunch transports ride this big trump rally. A number of names in the group were up double digits, and they keep flying high. President elect trumps business conflicts raising some questions. Well take a look at that. And call it turkey truce. How to get along with your family this thanksgiving after the emotionally draining election. And well preview the redskins and the cowboys. Thats where the big battle will be on turkey day. Halftime report will be back after this. We love knowing whats happening. So the nest cam Security Camera looks after things and alerts your phone if somethings up. Hey, need a glass . No matter what it is. Hey, dad. This car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. To win, every millisecond matters. Both on the track and thousands of miles away. With the help of at t, Red Bull Racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. Brakes are getting warm. Confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. Understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. Giving them the agility to have speed precision. Because no one knows like at t. But are you gonna bring fiup that stock again . Well you need to think about selling some of it. My dad gave me those shares, you know. He ran that company. I get it. But you know i think you own too much. Gotta manage your risk. And youve gotta switch to decaf. An honest opinion, even if you disagree. With 13,000 financial advisors, its how edward jones makes sense of investing. The brothers najarian are back. Pete, were back in minneapolis with you. What are you going to do today . Take a look at rio tinto, scott. This is an interesting stock. If you take a look at what its done over the last 52 weeks and you go back to february, this is a 24 stock. Now all of a sudden you look at it and its trading closer to 38. 50. The interesting part about this trade right now that were seeing today is theyre buying the january 40 calls. Very aggressively. 5 3rks00 of those being accumulated around 1. 50 in the cost. The interesting part is this follows up when they were buying 8,300 of the january calls as well. They were on the january up side as well. Very aggressive here. Twice now. That makes you even more confident on trade. Im in the trade. Ive been in the trade since november 9th. Im going to stick with this, and ill be in there for at least the next month or so. Okay. Target today. Thats the chart you showed going into the break. They were aggressively buying calls in here. Normal activity in october was about 6,000 contracts. Ramped up after the election to about 12,000. Today it trades almost 12,000 at the december 80 call strike. It is across the spectrum. The fixed earnings in the Retail Sector hack where its at. It has been, and to jims point, scott, this is after the earnings. This is in anticipation of the earnings. Its probably in anticipation of positive same store sales versus last year. And a good christmas selling season. Thats the allimportant season. Yeah. With jc penney obviously indiscriminate buying across the sector. That wasnt your best. Yeah. You want to take a repeat . Look, rio tinto, i dont understand at this level. I think that had ceos come after you, iron ore saying that too much capacity and the commodity will go down in price. So its interesting to see that they continue to come after some of the same names. Even today if you watched today, u. S. Steel was getting hid hit. Now its in positive territory. When you look across the space, look at cliff. Clf. That was put out to the den, and now all of a sudden its come back to life. That space, whether its oirn ore or aluminum continues to be powerful and strong to the up side, and it looks like people continue to see. Did i miss it completely, and im holding a grudge, and im working on hating you and john for so much money. We just heard steve say i missed it and i dont understand it in the same sort of one minute segment. Cant you be like me and have a holiday spirit. Have a happy thanksgiving. You as well. Good luck to your redskins. You too. Gold prices falling to a ninemonth low as the dollar rallies. Well go to the futures picks now. First, lets take a look at the s p sectors. There you go. Telecoms at the top. Real estate is at the bottom. Halftime report back in a few minutes. Is happening before our eyes. Shift in Human History sixty to seventy Million People are moving to cities every year. At pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha in real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets. Partner with pgim the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Were watching gold today falling to its lowest level since february. Cnbcs jackie deangeles is at the nymex. Hey, jack where i. Hey, scott. Watching gold very closely. A sharp fall under that key 1,200 mark. Anthony, to what extent did this stronger dollar today having an impact on the gold trade . With the results of the election and whats going on with the data numbers, especially that durable goods number, the uncertainty is dissipating right now. The fed will raise in a few weeks. I think that is a foregone conclusion at this point, and what we have to see now is if if the market, the equities market, if it handles that raise at a reasonable manner, then gloeld e gold will trade a lot lower than 1,150 and probably trade at the 1,100 level. What are the levels that you are watching . I think breaking 1,300 to the down side. You know, 1,150. I think we trade at 1,150. I think the next few months, we may even see lows down at the 1050 level. Its been a huge momentum shift. Movement out of treasuries and gold into equities training strangely enough, its a strange environment, but equities is the best risk adjusted return place to be in the market right now. Thats where money is flowing. 1050, 1150 for gold is not out of the question. Head to futures now. Cnbc. Com. Were taking a day off for thanksgiving tomorrow, but well be back with the live a live sh next tuesday. Back to you. Good holiday to you and your family as well. Doc, gold, the miners. Thats what i would buy, judge. But i cant believe it is done, done. But to steves point, i think it was, you, steve, perhaps jim that talked about tax law selling into the end of the year for some of these big losers, this is one of those big losers. Not the gold miners, but gold itself. Does that push lower and thus give you a better entry point . I give it a couple of weeks. I dont know if you need to buy it on the first cross. I dont know if gold is the place to be Going Forward in particular if youre going to see oil rally above 15. That becomes black gold. I think looking globally at where Interest Rates are, central bank policy, looking at the tax cut, it is not the kind of environment that you want to look at gold inflationary environment in. I dont think you can get to that point yet. Were happy to come out of deflation. Lets come out of deflation first, which is the appearance right now that the economy is given before we Start Talking about a real inflationary environment and ownership of gold. Three hours of trade before thanksgiving and the desk is breaking down the trades theyre thankful for and the ones that they want to forget. First, dom chu is at the New York Stock Exchange with a look at some of the markets biggest turkey trades. Thats right, scott. The trades that have gone foul so to speak, pardon the pun. Some of the biggest losers in the large cap, s p, signet lost a quarter of its value. Trip adviser, first solar lost half. Less volatile, no dividends to investors either, so acting like dead money this year, you got biogen, henry schein and alphabet. Lets see if these stocks can turn it around in 2017. Can someone please pass the mashed potatoes and gravy . More after the break. Keep it right here. Hey nicole. Hey i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my First Options trade. We only do it for everyone gary. Well, i feel pretty smart. Well, were all about educating people on options strategies. Well, dont worry, i wont let this accomplishment go to my head. Im still the same old gary. Wait, you forgot your french dictionary. Oh, mucho gracias. Get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. Shot of the market at this hour. Muted action today after another recordsetting day, one day ago. All four of the major averages, that includes the russell 2000, hitting all time highs. There is your sector heat map. It is telecom today with the industrials and energy at the top. Utilities, tech, real estate at the bottom. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. So what stocks are our traders thankful for this year and what trades gobbled up their money . Lets go around the horn. Joe, you start us off. First quarter, shale survivors we talked about so much. And that really is what provided very strong year in terms of performance, pxd, oeg, didnt have to do much in energy after the First Quarter if you put those on in the second quarter, you were buying concho at 79 and selling it at 125 two months later. Your foul trade . Get it . Volatility. Volatility. Right, doc . Yeah. The only time volatility worked was from basically 7 30 at night on Election Night until 11 30. That and short bursts. Short bursts. Very short. Doc, what about you . Thankful for what . Thankful for apple. Thankful so many people bet against it. Also thankful, of course, that Warren Buffett got into it because talk about a stamp of approval when he got into it, you know, between 88 and 92 or Something Like that. That was one of the greatest gifts of the year and the stock has been a great trader since. Foul, got a bunch of them. Sun power, anytime youve touched anything in that space, except for elon musk because he has that reality distortion field going for him, anything else in the solar space has been garbage. Weiss, thankful . You have 50 names on the list. I try to keep it to a minimum. Sarepta. Team health . Team health was a takeout. Metagraphics was another takeout. Those were great. Lpl and i really got hurt on endo, in the health care side and allergan, where i own the options and those were very, very painful trades. Jimmy . Look, a sector that has just gone nuts all year, particularly the last month, small caps, right . So a lot of names here youre not going to know. Ill pick one you do know, winnebago doubled off the february lows. Thats been a great trade and great for our clients who own it. On the foul side, and i hate to take the opposite side from you, jon, but apple, for all its Movement Really hasnt gone anywhere. There has been all this drama with it. Every time you wake up in the morning, some news article on apple, im tired of it, i want it to be a sleepy slow grower and cant get that from it. Got to get it at the right time. As we said, some of these the stocks, you know, like the socalled fangs and apple, since november 14th, when they seemed to bottom, they all had a nice reversal. Apple is up 5. 5 since then. Most of the names are up about that level with the exception of amazon, which is up 10ish. They sold off after the election. No, no. Amazon. Since im talking about since november 14th. Okay. Since they they all went down from election day until the 14th. Right . And then they have come back since. Yes. From the 14th until today. And, look, there is still value there. My point is just the return that you get from the stock for the volatility, to me, i really question whether it is worth it. I think you need volatility to make a return. You dont like it. You dont like it. But thats what makes great investing, right . Tolerate the volatility. Were going to come back on monday after the holiday, and are we going to Start Talking a lot about the fed . Is that going to dominate . Are we going to be watching rates on the dollar . Those are the most dominant stories . You might talk about some of the economic numbers that come out, see if the economy is picking up, jobs, ism, whats going on with with the china pmi. Hopefully have or be closer to a treasury secretary and thats going to be an Interesting Data point, to talk about, maybe start to get the plan. Thats what you got to see next, see how that comes together. The trump rally has been pretty darn impressive given its breadth. And to your original question, we are going to be talking about the fed, but nothing it act on until the actual meeting and what you want to see is what does janet yellen say after that as far as the pace of future rate hikes. Before this election, you had a r lot of good economic numbers. Will she be aggressive or will she pull back a little bit . Minutes coming out today, ignore them, everything has changed. Yeah. Do we think you might get some post thanksgiving selling or everybody takes a sort of breather . Goes with their families, comes back on early next week it is all about retail, retail. Thats what the conversation is going to be about. Strength of the consumer, strength of the retail, what are the numbers. You said it feels as though maybe things have changed a bit. I think it has. I think there is confidence right now, i think there is optimism. Good stuff. Have a great thanksgiving. Thank you. Power starts now. We are family hi, everybody. Im tyler mathisen. Battered and bruised, im not battered and bruised, but pharma and biotech are. And that is what tops your menu, one stock down 5 , another 12 , and another down 30 . That would be battered and bruised. All right, countdown to black friday, but it is not what it used to be. We will get your shop on. Just minutes from now. And thanksgiving, the super bowl for this retail chain, see if you can guess which one, sales expected to double this week