Finerman and bonawyn eison. The financial names closing out a strong week with another game today in this holiday short week. Take a look at some of the moves in these financials. J. P. Morgan leading the pack. Wells fargo, bank of america, citigroup, with a 4 percent gain. Yields on the two year today, hitting their highest levels since november 2007, but is the rally in financials too good to be true . Karen, i know you will say no. I feel like it is still a nightmare. They were much higher earlier in the year. Obviously, i like the banks through good and bad. I have been long on the banks. I think it is a nice bounce. I wish there was one more trading day to the week. I still think the evaluations are really compelling here. The bear case for the Money Center Banks is that all of their Investment Banking business and Capital Markets business is down. All that is true. Remember, half their business is net interest, right . That is really doing well. We always look at the two year, 10 year, that is not how they make their money. It is much shorter than that. Shortterm rates are higher. That is great for them. The evaluations are really compelling. J. P. Morgan, obviously, i love jamie. 3. 4 dividend yield. 11 times earnings, actually, a little cheaper than that. I find that compelling. I think there is loan growth there. You could make a decent bear case, but to me, it is valuation. If i owned none, i would buy it here. I would think, with the crazy moves in fixed income commodities and currencies. Yeah. I think you get a boost there. If you look at a stock like goldman sachs, that is an interesting one to watch. One of the only ones battling with that downward slope in the 200 Day Moving Average. Maybe that gives us a clue as to how the others might behave if they get to that point, but i have been surprised at the resilience in banks. Karen has been more right than i have. Thinking about this week, i dont know how much i would take from it. Better economic data, pmi, better initial claims, all good things. The market was oversold as we came into the week, so banks participated in that move higher. If you think about the labor market, specifically, whether you want to call it overheating or too tight, until that changes, the fed will be pretty engaged. An aggressive fed keeps that risk of recession higher. We still have an inverted yield curve. Lower leading Economic Indicators, financial conditions, generally, are tightening. I think it makes it a hard road for banks going forward. Look at the complexion of Market Performance under the surface. Banks relative to utilities. Banks made another relative low just two days ago. When thinking about that leadership complexion, it is still fairly cautious. I dont know that changes anytime soon. The counter to the strong drops report me the fed will have to go harder, meaning we will go into a recession, and is that a strong labor market . Does it make it possible that a soft landing is a possibility at this point . It is. I would say the last jobs report kind of gave us a glimpse into that goldilocks scenario you are speaking of. As for the rally, there are a few other things on the surface doubling that we have overlooked. Loan growth. Karen touched on that. Also, defaults and things of that nature are all still trending towards historical lows. You could say those are lagging indicators, and they are, but so far, that is the data we have to go on. You can talk about assets. You can talk about the deal calendar waning. All of the things, they have made provisions for. Until we see defaults start to creep up, that will be the telltale sign. I think that is probably looming, but as for now, that is remains strong. I think that is why you are starting to see a bit of a bounce this week. With that said, i would say that the price to earnings has been compelling for quite some time on the way down, as well as now, on the way up. I dont know if that is enough for me to add to positions now, but i do want to keep it an equal length here, noting some of the positives along with the negatives that i tend to highlight. What do you think . You are of the belief that a recession is coming, that unemployment will take higher, that defaults will continue to take higher would you be a buyer of banks here . Everyone made great points. I can see both sides of it, actually, but i think the reason we saw them bounce off the bottom recently is the market pulled them up. Number one. Number two, if you look at the yield curve, the yield curve is still inverted, but it is a lot less inverted on a relative basis. Number three. You have a little bit of a goldilocks until you get cpi next week on the 13th. When the cpi comes out, and it is a great number to the downside, we are going to hear, as scott said in his lead into the show, we will hear the fed be just as hawkish. Its going to mean nothing. You will see stocks rally for another day or two, probably close to the 200 Day Moving Average of the snp, which will be right around 4200 by the time we get there. After that cpi, after the hawkish chatter, the markets will return to where they came from recently, lower. Unless the cpi is hotter than you think. Karen and i were just discussing that off camera. That may be the thing that the markets react to. It almost doesnt matter what the cpi is going to be, unless it is high, right karen . I think a high cpi will really scare people. A cool cpi is like, okay, we knew that was coming. We expected this. Steve, let me ask you a question. You think if it is a hot cpi, people think the fed is super hawkish, and if its cold, you think it is still hawkish . Down in either case . Yeah, i think were going to go down. Thats why i think the next catalyst to the upside for me will be the midterm elections. I think were going to be choppy. I think we will see the markets go lower. Once the midterms come into focus, we will probably rip to year end. We are fast money, so i do want to play trader, but jeff, if we are to believe most scenarios out of the cpi report are negative for stocks, because the fed will still be hawkish, that would mean further inversion of the yield curve. I think that is probably true, because people are still worried about slowing economic growth. That has been what is driving that inversion. If you look at macro, in general, compared to where we were at the june lows, i think things are worse. Rates are higher. Leading Economic Indicators are lower. You have utilities pressing higher, some eyes pressing lower. The Risk Barometer is still very defensive. You have europe already testing previous lows, obviously, they have all their own issues, but 40 of the s p 500 has Revenue Source from abroad. Communication services here are testing low. Its one of the first sectors to do that. Just watch interest rates, because it has been the market on the equities side that is been more gullible to the fed pivot narrative. We have seen this decoupling between equities, especially, looking at p e ratios and the two year period we talked about the two year period. I think that is a telltale sign that you will probably see multiples compress to reflect the reality of what is going on in the rates market. The chartmaster is here with his take on whether this weeks momentum can continue. Carter, what are you looking at . We will drill down here, just as you have been doing on financials and banks in general. I think it is important to make the point that while it was a good week for the sector, regional banks underperformed the s p 500 financial sector. The Nasdaq Bank Index with almost 300 stocks underperformed. The sector is influenced by things like berkshire, Property Casualty insurance, investment health, asset managers. Look at the charts and figured out from there. Two all data charts. This is all data going back in 1989. The top is the snp, the bottom is the financial sector. The market is almost double the performance of financials. If you look at this a different way, the second chart is the exact same thing. It is just a relative performance line. It is a ratio. Financials, on the lows of covid, were alltime lows. They are barely off that low. Of course, that might be the opportunity. I dont think it is. Some people would say this is why it is so cheap with so much upside potential. Lets look at the index itself. Very liquid, tradable. The selloff of 27 brought us back to the highs from which we sold off. You get all the way down to the precovid high, and we bounced, as has the market. The final chart, and the real question is this as we work into the apex of these converging trend lines, is this a set up for financials to breakout to the upside, or are we churning and stalling before, ultimately, slipping lower . I am in the latter camp. Carter, thank you. We will see you in a few minutes. Carter worth of worth charting. I do like the charts. I do like carters charts. I think the overarching message on a fundamental level is that when expectations for sharper rates subside or come back in, that is where you will get the real steepening of the yield curve. That is when youre going to see value outperform, and the key and core of that are going to be banks. We are not there yet. I expect this xls to turn around and go lower. Shockingly, wells fargo, you said it before and the intro, is the outperform her, as follows the monthly and year to date. That chart looks the best to me. Rates are like any other markets though, they anticipate things. If we are to believe that we understand what the feds path is through the end of the year, perhaps, the shorter end of the yield curve has factored this in a bit. I think i tend to disagree there. Shockingly enough, you tend to read my mind, but i really think the markets have been fighting the fed for some time now, the better part of two quarters, so im not really sure whether im looking at the futures market. Just look at the expectation for the next rate hike. It was mostly 50 basis points. Now it is two thirds to 75 point basis hike. I dont think the markets are pricing and fed action properly, at all. I truly think that is the crux of the issue. Until we get a bit more clarity there, perhaps, until markets are more willing to take the fed at face value, and interpret what they are saying, and then have that read in the markets, i think it is not going to be until that point that the markets will be reflective of where fed policy is headed. If bono is right, to me, its not about financials, it is about high flyers and big pe. More than financials, even if the economy slows down. For instance, like an ig be . I did cover some this morning after we had the conversation about docusign being at scale. You should come to the dark side, melissa. Youre really good at this tv thing. Coming up, from german valuations, we go inside the biggest market week surprises, and how to play them. Why it might be time tseo nd your strong dollars on a flight abroad. More fast money is next. At xfinity, were constantly innovating. And were working 24 7 to connect you to more of what you love. Were bringing you the nations largest gig speed network. Available to more homes than anyone else. And with xfi complete, get 10x faster upload speeds. Tech upgrades for your changing wifi needs. And advanced security at home and on the go to block millions of threats. Only from us. Xfinity. Welcome back. Regular fast money fans know this show is full of staggering stats. Chartmaster carter worth hitting us with one last night. Take a look at this. The total return on utilities since september of 1987 is equal to the total return on the s p 500. Its rare, but that fact left us all speechless. It got us thinking, what other nuggets of information are out there that our traders are surprised by . Jeff mills, kick it off for us. Let me give you real quick bonus one, because i thought this was interesting and more longterm, like carter. All of our clients anchor to the s p 500, so gold standard. You cant beat the s p 500, compare all performance to that index. Smallcap has outperformed the s p 500 by hundred and 36 over the last 20 years. Just remember that is not the entire stock market. There are areas that sometimes outperform. I think that is worth remembering. Now, back to my surprise from this week. Basically, oil down, Energy Stocks dont care. We have the chart here. You can see the decoupling. You wonder if it says more about the commodity or the Energy Companies themselves. I think it probably says something about both. In terms of oil, maybe the weakness will not be severe. There are still supply issues that might support the price. The stocks are just better run. Better capital discipline from the companies, and they are still quite profitable. I think that is important to remember. I think about a stock like eog trading three times their earnings. They said they could pay their current dividend at 44 in wti. These companies are different than they were a number of years ago. With their current valuations, they could still be very profitable. Can we go back to be small caps . Can we do the more you know . I think that deserves it. Small caps have outperformed the s p 500 by 130 basis points . Over 136 , cumulative performance. If you look at the s p 600, smallcap versus the s p 500, a 136 cumulative return over the last few decades. Thats a hard act to follow, bono. What is your stat . You can say that again. I really shouldnt be surprised, at this point. It is a mean stock, but bed, bath, and beyond is of about 30 , and that is in the face of what i would call some pretty scary developments. You, clearly, have the situation where he has come out, he has done the reporting that he needs to do, and said that he took all chips off the table to the tune of 70 million. You have the unfortunate death of their cfo. It is an existential stock in turmoil. If you are playing for the short squeeze, you got it. You got exactly what you are pulling for, and to now doubled down, i dont know what the real catalyst is here. I am going to take notice. I am utterly shocked at this one. I dont really understand the playbook here going forward. Karen . This one happens to not be my own, but it could be seen, because i bought some today. Germany. The dax. If you look at what is happening, there are so many macro headwinds. Headwinds is too subtle of a word for what is happening in germany and other European Countries right now. If you look at various crises over time, 2011, if you look at the pe, the current pe, which, i know it will go down, it is trading well below the average pe, let alone the high pe, so that is over the last 14 years. Here is another stat that i find interesting and important to the story. Lets go to the next one, which is the dax versus the price to book. This takes into account all the earnings that the dax companies have had over the last 14 years. If you look at how low that is, the price to book it was the average, 2. 76 . Now, we are at 1. 7 . That is a 40 discount to the average. Germany will find a way. I feel like this is a pandemic moment for the dax. All right. You are up. Mine is geopolitical. This, to me, is shocking. It is shocking and its not shocking. The market doesnt factor something in until it knows what to factor in, but the china taiwan tensions, every day, another headline. To me, i dont understand. We are worried about june lows . If there is some ratcheting up of hostility with china and taiwan, we are going to drop, probably, to the february 2020 level of 32. 50 in an afternoon. It could be over the weekend. It will be a horrendous drop. I think the market is being overly cavalier about this, as if its not going to happen. I think russia, ukraine, is probably leading me to believe that this is more likely to happen then not, and i think the markets are ill prepared. And National Security advisor, this week, saying that it is a distinct threat that china invades taiwan. I agree. Up next on fast money, a winning Housing Stock gets crowned chart of the week. Will this end up being a fixer upper as Mortgage Rates climb . Cnbc tackles a jump above the 20,000 mark in tonights special, crypto night in america. You are watching fast moy. Ne you are watching fast moy. Ne back right after this. So youll never sit this one out. Icy hot pro with 2 maxstrength pain relievers. Power e trades awardwinning trading app makes trading easier. You can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. Bubbles bubbles so many bubbles as an expedia member you earn points on your travels, and thats on top of your airline miles. So you can go and see. Or taste or do absolutely nothing with all those bubbles. Without ever wondering if youre getting the most out of your trip. Because you are. Welcome back to fast money. Time to reveal our chart of the week it is zillow, charging more than 11 since tuesday. Zillow is still down 40 this year, so as housing data turns bearish, is the stock still worth a look . Karen, youre hoping the answer is yes. Yes, i am hoping it is worth a look. I own it. We saw some of the data from the homebuilders. The earnings themselves, the outlook was not fantastic, but they talked about how things got a little better during the quarter, how traffic picked up. That is good for zillow. I love the transformation of their business to. Thats really good. They are the place to be. I like the asset light, as i said, and i think were going to see a floor here is put in, and if we get any kind of housing uptick, that will be really good for zillow. Its time for the final trade. Lets go around the horn. Jeff. I dont you need to sell it here, but look for that 50 day 165. I think the chart is broken. More weakness ahead. Steve grasso. And ex e, nexgen energy, traded up dramatically this week. Bono. Xle. Karen finerman. Related to energy. My trade is buyback oil. That does it for us on fast money. Dont go anywhere. Tis action is up next. Stomach right now on options action, the energy trait has been running at lowpower this week, the sector underperforming the major averages. Now is the time to get bullish. Plus, time to send your strong dollars on an investing trip abroad. One of our traders says you should be doing just that. Later, looking back at apples big week, from the iphone reveal to a big trade. As always, it is friday and we are taking your tweets. I am melissa lee. On the desk tonight, carter worth, and bonawyn eison. Lets get right to it. The