Highs, alltime highs. When you allocate what is the trump related rally and whats not the trump related rally, you have to look at it as a percentage. I look at the move. If i look at what led today, health care led, materials led. When you look at 80 of that movement, if you take out 80 of that move, we trade down to the 200day moving average. Do you think thats going to happen . Not judging how this market is bought. I think were missing something. And ill say im missing something. This market is bought. Time and time again. In the face of what it should be sold. So i dont understand it. Last week they had every reason, and every time to sell it, and they didnt do it. Today it bounced technically off a round of a 50day moving average. I think people are flying blind. Ultimately theyre buying. I think the loss of leadership of the bank stocks is really troubling. I think the fact on the first down day last tuesday when the market was down 1. 2 or so. Over 105 days or Something Like that. Not only did it break a streak, but it also broke the uptrend from the november lows. I think technically it is significant. It may get back, youre right. It may get back to the trend. But if it fails at that trend, its a great opportunity for traders to short them. Listen to all the market strategists come on all day long. No, no, we want to wait for the crush. Buy down 5 . 1 . Not enough. It never comes. What do you do . I think people are running from that view in the last couple of days. But on some level its kind of fair. Part of the view is, im going to wait to get some policy implemented. But i want to see earnings. If anything, youve blown an opportunity to maybe get aggressive tax reform in. It sets back expectations on tax reform which is really the most important thing were getting the whole time. The appeal of the aca i said on this show that theres a lot of support in the community for at least a modification here. But what we were voting on last week isnt something that will really help the market. You go back to the trade, and i agree with dan, i dont think youll see financials. I actually think financials were not necessarily rallying on dramatic reform. I think financials were starting to rally on the fact that the economy is picking up industrial speed. Big cap tech looks interesting to me and foreign markets with the weaker dollar. Its now been trending lower for a while now. If youre bullish, you have a lot of things to be encouraged by today. The russell still holds onethird of the wbm. The thing that stuck out to me the most was the vix. The vix closed down 3. 5 today. After trading up probably close to 10 earlier in the day. So the vix is telling you that, you know what, the bulls are still in charge. Goldman sachs traded down where it topped out at in 2015. There are a lot of things encouraged by if youre bullish. Yet we still sort of trend sideways to lower. You keep saying tax reform is the most important thing. Without that repeal, you lose half of your dollars. To make this a revenue neutral tax policy. You lose a lot of the buck shot, or real oomph behind your tax reform policy. Unless they do something really creative. Thats my point. The market should know that and its not selling off. You mentioned largecap tech. Think about whats looking so far this year, the stuff that was working last year right up to the election. That doesnt make me feel more comfortable about it. So when you think about the rotations that weve seen, weve seen the transports lose a lot of the oomph. Industrials and financials down. I dont like the rotation out of the trump trades, if you want to call them, in november and december. To me, i think you have a technical setup where you have a break of trend, a lack of momentum despite the low volatility readings. I dont think it actually sets up, given the well, whats different is what happened last week. You have a president whos no longer the deal guy or whatever. Hes been unsuccessful. Thats just a fact. I think were going to get a really strong sense of the next few weeks when Companies Give q2 guidance, okay . I agree, but i have a question. So in q1, in the conference call, did a lot of Companies Say were positive about were going to factor into our no. If its not factored in if you just went through the period we had, and youre in a company that actually is looking to benefit from the three things we talked about, and you have no clarity on it, yur guidance is going to reflect that in the stock market. You would be a fool to go out there and be overly optimistic. Think about the things that were working before the election, though. You had a lot of trades that i think were a synchronized Global Growth story. The fact that Central Banks are pulling back around the world is a doubleedged sword. It tells you that were in an environment where inflation is working. Thats actually what people want to see. Im very happy to see prices higher. Thats good. Earnings season will be good or bad for where we are right now in the markets . I think earnings will be good. Im not sure theyll be good enough to keep the market going at its trajectory high. Better than weve seen. Im not certain its going to be enough, though, to get us over the hump. Were still at critical levels here. Im actually of the inclination that the earnings might twist us the other way. Have we mattered yet . No, they havent yet. Youre 100 right. A great example, a company thats right in the middle of all the stuff were talking about. This is a company that would be massively adversely affected by a back, right . They gave guidance. And the stock was down. But its come right back. A Company Getting beaten on north america, a lot of the trends in for business, unrelated to the mac. Earnings of the season defines but you bring up a great point. You talk about back tax, i think thats off the table. If you look at everything that happened last week it is already in trouble. Its going to be incredibly watered down. And youre not going to get that revenue. If anything we saw last week is any indication, thats off the table. Youve got to buy xrt. More on the teflon trump rally. Terry, always good to see you. Good to see you guys again. Im sure youre getting the phone calls. Hey, terry, im waiting for this correction in the overall market, and its never coming. What do i do . Its not a screaming buy right now. I heard you talking about it in the opening. Were off 2. 5 from the alltime high. Were half a unit off in terms of pes, forward price to earnings. I think were at the point now in the cycle where you have to say, okay, im not buying or looking to match the market, but what sectors are you buying in the market. We have, quote unquote, many corrections within sectors and stocks. Transports have been hit very hard. Banks have been hit hard. What are you telling people to buy right now . We actually got more favorable in the energy sector. Weve been looking at this for a couple of weeks now in this big trade. I think divorced from kind of the divergence from oil prices versus energy equities, we now think its time to look at the equities. The selloff a little overdone now. There are reasons to be optimistic on the upside here. Rising oil prices . That doesnt seem to be happening now. Everybodys focusing on the u. S. Production, back to 9 Million Barrels a day right now. I think potentially, you could get opec extension. But even then, a lot of whats been happening is seasonal. We expect a tick back up that should support Oil Prices Going forward. You guys, what do you make in the moves of the im not asking you to comment on specific stocks, but exxon, chevron, conocophillips, the crude market has gone lower. A Broader Market thats been going sideway. I think if youre thinking about the specific sectors, we want exploration and production. If you look at e p companies, that gives the most leverage. If you want to really feel optimistic about this trade, you want to have exposure to the e p companies. Theres offshore, as welg as onshore projects. The offshore projects expensive as well. The companies that can potentially benefit in the improving oil environment, but if we do get some deregulation thats impactful to the energy sector. How do you factor in what has gone on in the past, you know, five days or so with aca not having a chance at this point in terms of tax reform and the likelihood, does that fak or at all into your forecast for the year . I think were at the point now we should no longer be talking about tax reform, more about tax cuts. It seems to be more of a challenge to think about tax reform. Because aca, appeal of obamacare, was so detrimental to the republicans and what their stature was. I think now saying theyre going to say, okay, what can we actually do, what will we take. They wont worry about the bad or anything like that. Think about potentially cutting Corporate Tax rate. I think that should be the shift. As a market view, that almost almost as positively as a Corporate Tax reform package. We impact the impact is on ecs. How the market is going to interpret it. Some of the things that relate out initially in a tax reform was 100 Capital Expenditure deduction. If we dont get that on tax reform, you could see people pull back a little bit. Lets say you go from 35 down to 25 so to speak. Thats still substantial that you could have some investment and ceos and Business Leaders saying, okay, we have the environment actually do some research in the development and Capital Expenditures, maybe well take advantage of that tax rate. The market is saying, we were expecting this grand tax reform. Remember, we havent done tax reform for 30 years now. Its not a clearcut solution. Last question here. If you got word today that tax cuts were on the table and likely to happen, would you still say that the markets are not a screaming buy or does that change your value your outlook for valuation . I think what we would have to see it, you were talking about the earnings Conference Calls and things like that, we would have to talk to the Business Leaders and say how are you going to put this capital to work, that reduction in savings. If we get word from the ceos and cfos saying it would influence it, they could push higher a little bit. Pes right now, about 22. 3. So we know were at the upper levels of the valuation rapgs. If we get more investment, that will drive Earnings Growth and push us a little higher. Terry, good to see you. Great to see you guys, too. I love the call on energy. If you think how negative people have gotten it wrong. People are getting out of these positions. Demand is not going to catch up until the second or third quarter. Demand is not supposed to be picking up now. Go for names that have a lot of leverage to the medium cycle. These names have been beaten up. I think people are still wrong how far oil will go down. One thing i take away from that conversation is you get some sort of repatriation or lower Corporate Tax rate, youll see it in m a. A lot of people with 15 billion left scratching their head. Theyre thinking, well have lower tax rates or be able to repatriate. I think you have to go back to 2004, and think about the last time we had a repatriation holiday. Microsoft at the time was the largest beneficiary of that. They got their money back and paid a 20 billion special dividend. Its not all going to go to hiring and r d, but it means job consults ultimately. For me, the last im actually a net seller of stocks at this level. I sold my qualcomm and snap. I was in and out of snap. The last thing i did buy was valiant. For me, im a net seller. I want to see it start to firm up. Today it firmed slightly. But this to me, this little bounce that we saw off the 50day, doesnt give me conviction to go out there and buying a whole new leg of stock sectors and names. Ibb hangs in there, off the 290 level. And tess louisialtesla, trading if not all the day. To me, tesla feels as though it wants to break through the alltime high. I think european banks look really interesting here. European stock markets are 20 cheaper to ours. What could derail everything. Its probably not on your radar. The cofounder of politico will join us to explain why hes calling it a ticking time bomb. Plus, wall street snap toss it. But there might be more behind the initiation than you think. Well explain. Its fast money madness. Taking on the reigning champ. You decide. Okay, so whats our latest data say . Our customer is a 21yearold female. Heavily into basketball. Wait. Data just changed. Now shes into disc sports. Ah, no shes not. Since when . Since now. Shes into tai chi. She found disc sports too stressful. Hold on. Let me ask you this. Whats she gonna like six months from now . Who do we have on aerial karate . Steve. Steve. Steve. And alexis. Uh, no. Just steve. Just steve. Just steve. Live business, powered by sap. When you run live, you run simple. [car[clicking of ignition]rt] uh wha woof eeh woof wuh [silence] [engine roars to life] [dog howls] dramatic opera music swells from radio [howling continues] remember here at ally, nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. Whos with me . Were like a Basketball Team here at ally. If a Basketball Team had over 7. Im in. 7,000 players. Our plays are a little unorthodox. But to beat the big boys, you need smarter ways to save people money. We know what you want from a Financial Company and well stop at. Nothing to make sure you get it. One, two. And we mean nothing. Welcome back to fast money. Word on the street is snap is worth buying. That kicks off our top trade. Bullish on shapchat parent including Goldman Sachs initiating a buy. Both firms were among the underwriters of snaps ipo. The most bullish price target by far . Mark appeared on squawk alley earlier today. Whats the main driver for the valuation. Heres what he said. Check out the march madness content in the stories, part of shapchat. Shares of snap jumping more than 4 today. So if you follow the street, into the stock. Dan . I think you feel comfortable. A lot of the initiations today, yes, a lot from underwriters marks. I think up near 31. I think the average price target on the street, about 23, 24, right where its trading. People pretty neutral on it. The problem that you have here is this massive market cap. You have a lot of uncertainty. But i do agree with mark about the content and the fact that this is the only pure play augmented reality stock out there right now. I think there is just a finite amount of offerings that people can look to for the sort of stuff. I cant tell you 23 is the right price. Can it squeeze up to 30 . No doubt about it. But again, weve got the sale, and the negativity out. The underwriters couldnt come in for a certain amount of time. It seems dirty to me. Every single firm that had anything to do with it with the buy ratings they start to say how great it is. We heard the statements that they might never be profitable. The whole thing to me could be replicated extremely easily. Instagram could replicate it. Has been replicating it. Are you saying that the bankers and the analysts are, what im curious to get to your point. Do you think theres cheerleading going on . I think they have a vested interest in snap doing well. Even after theyve done the deal . 100 . Because right now wed be doing a show that snap collapsed. What did these bankers know about the stock before bringing this deal public. What do they know, when did they know it. They knew it was a bad deal. Theyre supposed to be a chinese wall. Theyre not necessarily supposed to have the same view. I dont necessarily believe in the chinese wall. You come out with the upgrades, and i know its very conspiratorial. Just the way i feel. I felt this way since i started my career in 1993. I still feel this way now. When i look at actually whatever you want to call it, some kind of a bar chart against buy sell, its right up the middle. Theres five buys, two strong buys, five sells, five strong sells. For a company that universally people theres a lot of interest, but weve got to wait and see. Woods are lovely, dark and deep. You know what thats from . I dont. Come on, mel. Even if you did the online harvard, i know you did. Miles to go before the end chapter is written in the snap story. Although i thought it would trade 17, it got down to 18. 90. I want to make another point. This is a fact. Most of the people that would be buying it, whether large investment pools or individuals, theyre not on it. Its different than facebook. When facebook went public in 2012, and when twitter went in 2013, most of the Investment Community was using the services and understood them. They dont trust their kids now, if youre parents, you know that. Its noot just yet that i think people understand the story. Investors start to understand the story a little better at some point in 2017. There should always be a generational gap until well, no, but i think theyre talking about the way that theyre adding new products. This discovered product that will be a news based product. Whatever it is. There may be something that hooks older generation. Certainly my generation, you know. Youre againgenx, right, da . Theres a ticking time bomb that could be the next big threat to the trump rally. Jim is here to explain what it is, and why its so important to the markets right after this break. Im melissa lee. Youre watching fast money on cnbc. Heres what else is coming up on fast. Dennis gartman has something to say. Im sorry so sorry and hell explain why hes been wrong about the market. And the most important thing hes learned in the past year. Plus, the last time guy faced grasso in fast money madness . This happened. But grassos got some new moves and hell unveil them when fast money returns. Urns. You have access to indepth analysis, level 2 data, and a team of experienced traders ready to help you if you need it. Its like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. Its your trade. E trade. Start trading today at etrade. Com what we do every night is like something out of a strange dream except that the next morning it all makes sense. To power global ecommerce Fedex Networks are massive farreaching and, yes a little magical. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. With it, i earn unlimited 2 cash back on all of my purchasing. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Which adds fuel to my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Is happening before our eyes. Shift in Human History sixty to seventy Million People are moving to cities every year. At pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha in real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets. Partner with pgim the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back to fast money. Were live at the Nasdaq Market site. Heres whats coming up in the second half of the show. Stocks posted a stunning reversal today. But if youre worried about more volatility to come, fear not, weve got your portfolio protection play. Plus, our fast money madness continues this week with the Health Care Showdown between valiant and allergan. Which will advance to the final four. Well let you out there decide when the floor governor goes up against the negotiator. Undefeated champ. Wow. You cant have an idea. You can have my answer now, senator. Nothing. Lets start off with President Trumps 100th day in office. John harwood in d. C. With more on the story. Hi, john. Hi, melissa. First of all, im got a dami in my bracket. John harwood, thats what im talking about President Trump and congress have plenty of time to get back on track, but it will not be easy. Consider these legislative land mines that they are both facing. By april 28th, republicans will have to fund the government for the rest of the year or face a government shutdown. It wont be ease to avoid that. Neither will agrees on a fiscal 201 2018 resolution. Projecting trillion dollar deficit. They need to create the smoothest possible path for tax reform. But from border of adjustment provision to impacts on the deficit remain intense republican debate. They want tax reform done by august. August is also when theyll need to raise the federal debt limit in order to avoid a government default. Now, winning the support for that from conservative members of the House Freedom caucus may be even tougher than winning their support on health care, melissa. Wow. John harwood, thank you. What does it mean for the trump rally. Jim is cofounder of axios and joins us now from washington. Jim, good to see you. Good to be here. Thanks for having me. You say a shutdown is a much bigger threat than people are factor in at this point . It seems the markets are assuming there will not be more chaos. What harwood pointed out about needing to fund the government and the idea of raising the debt limit later in the summer, ill tell you, the white house and republican leadership, they dont see the math and how they can get it done. They assume theyll get it done. But they dont see how. Because you have these Freedom Caucus members, these very conservative members who sunk the health care bill, who could use both of those funding bills to say, listen, we wanted to fund planned parenthood, we wanted to fund obamacare. If they decide to do that, and i understand theyre meeting tonight to discuss this, you really could have the possibility of a government shutdown. And if you have that, youre going to have market chaos. For a party thats totally in control of washington at this point, just by the numbers, it would be a political suicide. This would sort of be like party destruction. Why would other party go down that road . Politically, its nuts. I wouldnt assume it wouldnt happen. Weve seen for the last eight years republicans have a hell of a time getting their conference behind any legislative initiative. The reason john boehner is not speaker today, and why paul ryan wishes he wasnt speaker on some days. The tea party members, they won in 2009, 2010. Because they wanted to defund the government. They wanted to radically reduce the size and scope of government, particularly on the health care front. To them, theyre just doing what they promised their constituents. These are not trump conservatives. Theyre tea party conservatives. People sometimes mix them up and assume theyre the exact same breed of republican. Theyre not. Right now, posthealth care, you have real chaos and soulsearching inside the Republican Party. They dont know what to do. Find me a democrat who wants to negotiate with trump. I agree with your analysis. When you look at the past, alltime highs in the s p, or thereabouts. When you look at every other government shutdown, it all has to be a buying opportunity. So do you see where president obama couldnt get anyone to vote for his budget, including democrats, do you see this the same way ultimately . What i dont know is how the markets are going to react to it, because it seems like you understand the markets a hell of a lot better than i do. They assume that youre going to have tax reform in a rational government. Theyre both big dangerous assumptions to be making. I assume youll have massive volatility. The real possibility of a government shutdown. Youre going to have many points over the next couple of months where it looks like tax reform is not going to happen. It may still happen, and it probably will over the next couple of years. But its a lot harder than people understand. People look at congress and assume, this is 435 rational people making rational market decisions. Its not how they operate. They operate as individual political actors, many of whom are here on an ideological crusade to reduce the size and scope of government. Thats colliding against donald trump. And so this idea that over the weekend, oh, lets work with democrats, like i was just saying, find me a democrat who wants to work with donald trump. They feel like theyve got him backed into a corner. They want to take him out, they dont want to help him. How panicked do you think is the Republican Party at the end of the day . As you point out as well, a lot of these republicans did not run as trump, quote unquote, republicans. The Trump Administration thought they would just sort of come along with them once he got into the white house. That necessarily hasnt happened either. Whats going to happen is, youre going to have donald trump and paul ryan saying, if we shut down the government . We will look like a lot of hapless lawmakers you shouldnt assume its going to work. I think at the end of the day they probably find enough republican votes to avoid that catastrophe. But what im saying is, theres a much better chance than a lot of your viewers probably think that they dont find those votes, that you continue to have a washington that doesnt function. Listen, this is what happens when you have a president who takes office and kind of improvises his way through things. They did not think through how to do health care. Think through that maybe we should do tax reform and Infrastructure Spending first, to get the economy take off. A healthy market makes you a really, really strong president. Instead they do health care, which is one of the most difficult things for republicans to do. And then they do it in a way that looks like a debacle to people, internally and externally. Now it freaks everybody out. Whereas it could have been tax reform first and say look at the regulatory relief and the market lift. I would expect a lot of volatility. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Axios, its either the markets are just not factoring it in, or they are, and theyre saying look what has happened so far and weve been trading very in a muted fashion. I dont think markets are factoring it in. I think if you actually look at whats going on in the tenyear yield, the bottom end of this range, 230, i think probably will hold. I actually think yields may go higher. They may go higher for the opposite reason and tumult in the debt ceiling. I know the democrats dont want to work with them and push them, but i dont think trumps a republican. Im not sure where he goes, but hes going to go where he gets votes. We may not know where this ends. They talk about the Market Performance being a report card when the market was going higher. The market hasnt really gone anywhere. If the market were to take a leg down, hes not going to take the blame himself. He will blame others. The market going lower in the short term works to his advantage. Because hell tell people, hell tell congress, look at what you people are doing to the market. But for you, that could actually work in his favor. Right. I think ultimately it does. But, you know, im trying to look at the Freedom Caucus. Im trying to look at what the action of the market was today and that really means for tax policy going forward. Who knows, maybe the way they were embarrassed, maybe that helps corral more votes for tax policy. They have less of a dog in that fight. But wasnt this health care thing really for all intents and purposes it was giving the wealthy a tax break, cutting off Health Care Access to 24 Million People. Thats how theyre going to get the wealthy ones had the burden of the but thats all theyre deficit hawks. They cant do the reform that they want the only tax cut they can bring will totally help the wealthy. But thats consistent with these guys are waving their white flags. Theyre going to do more and more of this. They said no legislation when its bad legislation. Thats great. Jim said it, this is why these guys came to power in 2010 after obamacare was put in place. They also said they were going to repeal this law for seven or eight years. They never did. So at the end of the day, its a massively dysfunctional republican conference. Watch out for the i do believe, though, that the markets can climb that wall. They did it with president obama. President obama but theres no wall right now. President obama did not pass a budget for the first term. What are you talking about . Where is the wall of words . The market is actually we were worried about recession. We were worried about youre talking about climbing a wall. Gdp has been cut in half. Were looking for 3 , 4 gdp. You say that . Yes, i do think. They were factoring in funds were factoring in a 3 or 4 gdp. Theyre not doing it anymore. Nobody was factoring in you dont dan, were talking about billiondollar funds that had to model it in. Im not talking about your desk. Ne had to model it. The secretary you have to model it in. Based on infrastructure. Even if it was transitory. Tax cuts, deregulation, they were modeling it in, 3 , 4 gdp. We live in a world right now with alternative facts. Anybody doing a 3 to 4 you need to be on that wall totally ridiculous. Totally ridiculous. It was never likely to happen. They had to model it in. Let me tell you something. At the network we love larry kudlow here. He was talking about all this supply side garbage that never worked 30 years ago and its not going to hold on, hold on. In the Reagan Administration to the biggest boom weve ever seen in the stock market. Im tired of you rewriting history. They are the facts. People like him coming on talking about it, we didnt have a lot of time to talk about this, but theyre supporting a guy that they cant get behind. He said everything he had in getting the bill passed. It was an outright lie. The guy didnt. I think his top adviser wanted to see ryan fail. They knew exactly what the Freedom Caucus were going to do. Heres the thing, it is a market shell. This is what the market has been trading on now. We had the politico guy and axio guy talk about the market volatility. The people are too complacent. There is a wall of worry, steve. Where were you in the opening of the show, you said the gdp looks great. Theres no wall. Do you think the markets are going up or down . You roll your eyes. Im trying to understand where the heck you are. I dont know where you are. Are you bullish or bearish . I dont know. Thats not what i said. I can do this. What im telling you is this market has been very blase about events. It was about the debt ceiling and could it be an issue and are people paying attention to it. I said i dont think theyre paying attention to it. Wait a minute, because theyre not paying attention to it, every other time we paid attention to it before, the market sold off briefly, and the market consistently ran higher from there. The market is overly complacent here. My point is my point is, no matter what youre worried about, it might be ideaologic worries. Weve got to stop. If youre worried, as worried as dan, how do you protect your game . Dan, why dont you show us. Heres the thing. We have the show friday at 5 30. We talk about some of this stuff. We talk about the volatility and complacency. Whats interesting about the s p 500, i look at the options on the spy, thats the epf that tracks the s p 500 every week, the market has implied about a 1 move in either direction for the s p 500. That speaks to the complacency that tim is talking about. When we look out to the events, one of the things that traders like to do is schedule events. We have the debt ceiling vote and the French Election coming up. We know theres going to be more fed activity over the next couple of months. If youre long stocks and you want to hold on to them, you should think about hedging strategies. Let me give you a couple of bullets here. You are paying premium to protect your portfolio. Thats really what youre doing. Paying a certain amount of money to get a certain amount of protection over a period every time. You want to do this when option prices are relatively low. Although theyve picked up in the last week and a half or so, theyre still relatively low. Ill show you a chart of the options on this in a minute. The last one is, this is the most important thing. It could be a massive drag on performance. But you want to use options tactically to protect your portfolio. Heres the s p 500, the spy right here. This is the trend. The november lows. This is the break i see. I think if you have a continuation of this bounce, that you may get maybe with 1 or 2 or so, and a failure at the down trend, you may want to look out a few months. This is implied volatility, the price of on shuns here. Look at how its very low relative to the past time. Look out to july. If you want to protect the stocks, it tracks the s p 500, when the stock was trading about 233 today, you could buy the july 230, 205 put spread paying 4 for that. That is your mask risk. 3 of the underlying stock price excuse me, 1. 7 . But you get protection down 3 . And you could make up to 21. That is 9 . Gets your protection down to 12 . I think that makes sense for people who hold stocks, looking out a few months. Thanks for that, dan. Check out the show friday. Ahead, the battle between two health care stocks. The stocks getting hit in the last year. Which one is a better buy right here, right now . They duke it out over which one is best. Going pretty big now. Does grasso have what it takes to take it down a notch . Well let you be the judge when fast money returns. Hey gary, whatd you got here . This bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my Trading Platform wherever i go. You know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right . Oh, so my custom studies will go with me . Anywhere you want to go the markets hot sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. Only at Td Ameritrade hi, im mindy kearns. Its great nice to meet you too. Your parents have been talking about you for years. Sorry about that. Theyre all about me saving for a house, or starting a college fund for my son. Actually, i want to know what youre thinking. Have a seat. Knowing that the most important goals are yours. Multiplied by 14,000 financial advisors, its a big deal. And its how edward jones makes sense of investing. Youre a crazy big fan of sports. And you dont wanna miss a thing. Stream all your live ncaa march madness games. Get directv for 25 a month when you have the new at t unlimited plus plan. Its going to be big. Its time for fast money madness. Steve grasso is challenged undefeated champion guy adami. Guys fighting for allergan. Guy, you get to go for it first. 45 seconds on the clock. Make the case for allergan. Thank you, mel. Think about it, college fight song. Its interesting that valiant and allergan, they were linked together at one point. I sort of fought for valiant a couple of weeks ago. Steves going to do an amazing job and hes probably going to be right. This is why i sort of dig allergan. Valuation, six times trailing, 13 times forward earnings. Stock is extraordinarily cheap. Decent balance sheet. They just bought a company. I know you know this, nod your head if you know, cool sculpting . You know what im talking about . You know exactly what im talking about. Thats catching on now, the whole cool sculpting thing, why . You dont got to go to the gym. You go in, get iced down, all of a sudden you go from a size 8 to size 6. Personal experience . Well, look at me. When are you starting . Dont give me the cricket. I get how valiant can work in this thing. The up side is tremendous for val yapt if they get one thing right. The tremendous down side, theyve come a long way. The clock struck 12 for cinderella. Go, grasso. Guy started it. Where guy left off. He just said theres tremendous upside for valiant. There is tremendous upside for valiant. Down dramatically on the year, down dramatically from where it came from. Downslide right here. Where can it bounce to . Stocks at 11 number. You know your defined risk, its 11. When you look at allergan, this competition is who has more upside. Theres no way, guy would say, that valiant does not have more upside than allergan. Agreed. Steve . Comes right down to that. If you look at their maturities, they pushed them out now. You worried about the stock going out of business . Theyve already pushed out their maturities. Four loans to 2022. So, yes, there is still an issue that overhangs this stock. But right now, its an issue thats going to happen in a couple of years, not tomorrow. Valiant case being made by steve grasso. Tim, you have a question . Do you think you lost . Just kidding. What happens when this equity goes to zero . Because theres actually a bankruptcy . I dont think its going to be a bankruptcy. You saw the headlines, they pushed out those terms. They pushed out those debt loans out to 2022. That was a big headline for the stock. You saw the number two holder, additional 3 million shares. They believe in it, so do you. Cool sculpting. Now from you. Dont go there. Dont go there. Who should advance to the final four . Were letting you out there decide. Go on to twitter right now and cast your vote vote in our poll. I dont want to give it away, but the godfather is in the lead. The winner will be announced at the end of the show. The one thing Dennis Garvin said failed miserably at. At fidelity, trades are now just 4. 95. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. So yourhow nice. A party . Trade with a clear advantage. Ill be right there. And the butchery begins. What am i gonna wear . This party is super fancy. Lets go. Im ready. Are you my uber . [ horn honks ] hold on. The biggest week in tv is back. [ doorbell rings ] partay Xfinity Watchathon week starts april 3. Get unlimited access to all of netflix and more, free with xfinity on demand. Welcome back to fast money. Miserable failure, unforgivable. A few of the words Dennis Gartman used to describe one of his recent trades. So where did he go wrong . What would he do differently . He joins us now with the most important piece of advice. Does this have to do with your call where the bottom was in oil, crest . Absolutely. And boy, did i miss that. Clearly wasnt the first time ive missed something. Wont be the last time that i missed something. But it was clearly a very bad call on my part. I had been ambivalent on crude oil thinking it would trade sideways for a long period of time. I bought it towards the bottom end. And within two days, i was shown to be utterly, completely, and intolerably incorrect. Those things happen. Part of the deal. As i like to tell people, theres nothing wrong with being wrong, youll be wrong in a lot in the business. Whats important is not to continue to be wrong, and admit when you made a mistake and admit that the losses, one, two, three, four percent or somebody in the case of ackman who bought oil all the way down, you dont want to lose 95 . Thats the difference. I was wrong, badly so. Wasnt the first time, wont be the last. Right. So where do you stand now on oil . Or do you not want to go there . Well, i think its a little on the cheap side. I dont think its dramatically so. Ill Pay Attention to what the term structure tells me. Right now the term structure, the con tago continues to widen, so the propensity will say probably it will continue to deteriorate. Do i want to press it down here . Not on my life. Where do you see stocks . Youve been bullish for a while. Ive been modestly bullish for a while. But only modestly so. No dramatically so. I think as ive told people in the newsletter, theres only three pushes you can have, aggressively long, pleasantly long or neutral. After last week, especially after the failure in the congress, which i think the public is going to look on it as being a serious error of judgment, that probably means that neutral is the better place to be. Still a bull market. I think youll get that inevitable correction. I think its upon us right now. I think that neutrality is the better place to be. Buy protection, consult back some of your positions, be less aggressively long. You cant be short. But i dont think its right to be aggressively long at this point. I trade only from my own account and thats exactly where i stand right now. Thanks so much. Im sure a lot of folks learned from the lessons you outlined earlier in the segment. Appreciate it. Dennis gartman of the gartman letter. Cutting your losses is a phrase that i dont know if it came from trading. But it certainly applies. I hope it came from trading. The mistake people make is they hold on to their losers way too long. They manage to lose money because they keep the losers longer than they should. Tim . I think youre in a place here, we say this on the show, when you go long a name or stay long a name, youve been in for a long time and you dont have the same conviction, youre probably making a mistake. Maybe the resource stocks, maybe i stay long freeport. Dont pray that the one stock that is actually probably the worst story in your portfolio is going to get. Grassos argument for valiant. Did you vote for him . Defeat guy adami . Well reveal the results when fast money returns. Urns. The command performance sales event is here. Experience exceptional offers on urns. Our most refined models ever. Get up to 2,500 customer cash on select 2017 models for these terms. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Thats why a cutting edgeworld. University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Welcome back to fast money. America has spoken. Its time to reveal the winner. Drum roll, please and guy adami once again. On a winning streak. Unbelievable. Guy, congratulations. Obviously i didnt win the dance contest. Nice work. Nice work, guy. Dont care about the Affordable Care act. Grasso . Monsanto, a proposed deal on the table. I still think its still worth a buy. Do you want a hug . Youre giving them out, im taking them. Spy puts. Red hat you remembered it. See you back here tomorrow. Mad money starts right now. B more fast money. Mad money starts right now. My mission is simple, to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer, welcome to mad money, welcome to k cramerica. My aim is well, we didnt crash. We didnt get clobbered like so many predicted would happen. Instead we plummeted early