Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160401

Has got this right in this ultimate game of chicken for your money . Which do you believe, which markets, guy . Maybe everybody has it right. I thought the market would fall 20, 25 and here we are 50 handles later and what scares me about the market is a couple of different things. Vix down 6 with a 13 handle. Over the last two years or so, thats been the bottom, give or take in the vix. Transports seemingly rolling over over the last week or so so i wont make a big deal out of it yet, but they let us out back on january 20 to the upside, right, and the bond market is so stubbornly big, right, that the tenyear yield is still below right around 1. 8 and all those things concern me. With that said, theres seemingly no stopping the s p right now and some of the stocks we talked about with momentum, home depot, cocacola, timmys mcdonalds continues to perform. Im long coke and long mcdonalds. Im long names like this that i think are safe investments and you have to think about where we are. Were in a place, like, the ism wasnt gangbusters in the u. S. But actually better. People looking for a balance. China pmi in expansion mode in the black for the First Time Since jewel of 2015. They are very real macro things left to say that are different. You add in the fact that the fed has now taken on three or four different mandates and talked about that yesterday with torsten and in a place why equities shouldnt be frayeding here and i totally agree with guy. You cant tell me as constructive as i largely have been, i do acknowledge that there are major risks out there, and i think equities are overly complacent here, especially when you consider that this move now off the lows surpasses the move from July September and i would be cautious. What do you do in this environment when you say the markets could be trading here . Plenty of reasons for it to be trading over there and plenty of risks out there. Again, its a game of chicken. The ultimate bull bear debate. It is, and i would reflect hon what timmy said. Talk about diversions in asset classes, right . Remember, theres a big concern about diversions within Central Bank Policy and i look at what the central bank and say right now they bought a lot of room from the standpoint of a rate increase by basically aligning themselves with overseas markets saying thats their third mandate, and now when when you essentially have good data, its good data as long as that exists. They are looking and monitoring overseas market. Third mandate from the fed, essentially lined up, i think, with other Central Banks for the most part, so i look at it and say this could last a long time. What do you do right now for your portfolio . Im still 50 in cash and i still think that oil is going to roll over or continue to roll over. As timmy said with the china numbers, i think the market should have ripped a lot higher, granted it was strong. Should have ripped higher and the market is totally dependant on china, on the commodity play. I think its those beta chases that probably were to blame. Right. Market ran higher, but i think what would you have expected though . In other words, weve had a market thats had so much run. China, no one believes the data out of china anyway so why should the market be going gangbusters on a print . No matter what, we have to trade off of what we get so it doesnt matter whether you believe the numbers or not. The market has been totally dependant on whether they are false, somewhere in between, made up or true. The market trades off of what it gets. Four minutes into the show and nobody has mentioned the jobs report as well. Yeah. So, i mean it was pretty benign. Good but not great. Nothing earthshattering about that number but to tims point. Look, if you asked me when that chinese number game out given the jobs number what the s p is going to do, i said it would be down 30 handles, why . Because those numbers should have put the fed right back on the table in terms of a rate hike, right . All the data if they are data dependant like they say and in there are concerns about markets overseas calming down or not calming down, if thats a concern. Thats a fair point. Thats a fair point. The market should have sold off. They will run and have cover saying that even though i agree with you. They put china in that in her speech constantly now, they are worried about china. They are worried about foreign markets, but she would say were more concerned about markets here so she wins both ways. She wins both ways and that will stay in place for whatever period of time is necessary and frankly i underestimated this the past couple of days since the news came out and underestimated that thats going to provide a real interesting tape. Are you more constructive today than to you days ago . I looked at the way we rallied today and watched way different sectors reacted, the diversions between the way oil came in and the way oil came in and the market rall eat way it did. Where were you two days ago . Two days ago i was saying taking profits and i still believe that the market is at levels so something has changed. I think the understanding real embracing the fact that the fed, they purposefully made a decision to bring on this third mandate, tim, right . To basically say were aligning ourselves with more of what goes on in the rest of the world and thats a complete change in rhetoric and i wouldnt have really noticed that when it came out. You knew they were completely worried about the rest of the world markets. Lets talk about oil for a second. We started out oh, is oil ahead big. Whats going on here . First of all, you have a lot of headlines today about the meet National Doha where saudi wont freeze if iran doesnt freeze. Everybody knows iran is not going to freeze. What does this mean for oil in the fact that were even talking about freeze, the fact that these guys are going to have a meeting is why rally should be rallying and everybody who has been short oil has been more concerned about the speculation of there being some type of a supply cut. So i would be buying this week. Iran, even if they froze its not good enough. People have to cut and iran needs to gain the market share back that they lost. I think most people think that thats off the table. Doesnt matter. But if even if even if a freeze is on the table, it doesnt matter. They have have you to have a cut in production, not a freeze. Thats why the market got this one wrong. It was a positioning trade where guys were caught short. Youre saying that oil is going down five bucks then. Yeah. Because positioning is wrong on this. Either way. Yes. I need a bottom line here. 5 off the highs . Well how should we look at the market . Monday i think you led the market doesnt give you this long to sell the highs, thats one of the things you said and that is true so here we are within these are levels, by the way, august 10th i think was the first china devalue came out and that was basically top of the market 28 or so in the s p, weve round turned, right. Whats next . Maybe that may high of 2134 is on the horizon. Guy mentioned the august swoon. Whats next. Grasso has some levels to watch. Yeah, sure. I love when he does this walk. Saunter to the music. Walking with a beard, too. Im probably going to need a chart eventually on this screen. You guys want me to draw my own chart on this at this point . Advance it. Left axis, up, down, there you go. April fools, grasso. Thats awesome. April fools. That is fantastic. This guy is absolutely scary. This guy is handsome. Look at that right there. Look at guy adami. This is amazing. Just when i got out of bed. Some of your best work. Are we really not doing a chart at all tonight . No, we are doing a chart. Keep advancing. I tell you what. Lets get to the levels now. Awesome. So now if you look at the chart, weve been sort of meandering, granted theres been some big moves here up and down, but weve been meandering around the same levels. This is why its so confusing, but if you look, we just ended the quarter, so to look at the highs from the quarters prior to us, heres a few of them. Right here, bang, bang, bang. What does it tell us . It tells us that were having a declining momentum here with tops in quarters, so heres the level to watch. We basically closed right there. Last time i was up up at this monitor i said that this is the main level. If you are short term, short term and youre not risk tolerant, this is the level. Thats flat on year. If you have a little more risk that you want to put on the table or leave on the table, this is your 200day moving average, so as long as we stay above 2043, you can stay long the market. I just said im 50 in cash, so im playing for either that drop or to add a momentum higher. I need to see this. I need to see us close above this level for a couple of repeated sessions, but just remember, youre walking into a wall here of resistance, and you see it all right here. People get mad when i draw too much on the screen, but thats what you have to look at right now. You have a wall of resistance ahead of us. Probably still a good time to lighten up, but if you want to stay long the market, please dont stay long the market if we break that level. A few closes above where we are right now. Tim, would you agree with that, and what are you playing in the market right now . I like what steve is do, giving you levels with which to trade within. I dont think hes making a call one way or the other which has proved to be fatal. Above 2043, a lot of people can say this is structural part of a very structural bull market. Saying that technically its broken over and over again hasnt worked for anybody. I think actually i follow the russell. Ill follow 1110 and the break through that is the fact of the matter that it held that today after a selloff and closed above. That to me is constructive. That i would say long even though, again, im short that as a hedge because the overall markets are still overly, you know, complacent here. Just quickly, steve. Sounds like you would be in the camp of trading to the 2100 or so level. Look, again, i said take profits the past couple of days and i still look at it and say i would probably be leaning into stocks to have crazy valuations that i dont necessarily believe in. But i would say this. The market is going to probably grind higher just because of what the fed did. I look at it as a rally to fade. I dont think its sustainable because of fundamentals. I would be looking for companies with solid fundamentals that you can buy on a pullback like steve identified if it does occur. And that nine box, ive got to tell you, who wore it better. Outside of George Clooney works handsome, very hand some man, there it is right there. Grasso. Look at him. A tilt. Head. Almost jack dorsey which makes me wonder he can go square and jack can go back to twitter. Or vice versa. You know what i mean. Handsome man. Get a good look at that beard again, please. Because its going to be gone. That might be it. Thats right. It might be it on under carve it down though. Mutton chops at least for a couple of days. Handlebar is good up. Next, auto sales are pretty solid but the major stocks cant seem to get out of reverse and what gives . What might it mean for the on fire consumer trade. And apple may be celebrating its 40th birthday and what about the next big tech stock you can add for the next 40 years . The names our traders are next. And more on that when fast money returns. A fair price, quality service, and that horrible smells are really good at hiding. Oh, boy. There it is. Ohh. Ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed. Get started today at angies list, because your home is where our heart is. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to fast money. Netflix kicking off our top trades tonight. The fcc coming out today and saying it will not investigate netflix for socalled throttling practices. You may recall last week netflix admitted for five years it has been slowing down video to wireless users, including those in verizon, at ts network in order to save them from exceeding mobile data cap fees. The admission from netflix about slowing its video speed comes at the same time that the company is arguing publicly for new rules that prohibit big internet providers from doing the exact same thing. Moments ago onk closing bell heres what netflix investor billionaire mark cuban had to say. Netflix throttling was a response to their customers. Im not a fan of net neutrality. I think thats a huge mistake and will hold us back in terms of advancing the internet. What netflix does with its customers to send money on their bandwidth bill, i didnt have a problem with it as a netflix shareholder or as naefltics user. Do you, guy, have a problem . Nobody is going to buy netflix on valuation, number one. I think we all agree and im surprised it has traded as well as it has. 98 has been the level. Mark cuban talked about that over the summer when he was buying the stock. Reed hastings does pretty much done everything right, maybe a slip or two along the way. This quarter, in my opinion, i think the report on the 18th is the about as important a quarter as netflix will have maybe since its inception. I think it will continue to real into the quarter. I think if youre concerned 98 on the downside is your stop, but have you to admit with seemingly bad news its traded welly well. Steve wozniak has just called into the show, yes, that Steve Wozniak on apples 40th birthday no less. See what he sees ahead for the tech titan and his vision for the future. Im melissa lee. Youre watching cnbc, first in business wooirld. Meantime, heres what sells coming up on fast. Heres looking at you, kid. Heres looking at you, apple. As the tech giant celebrates its 40th birthday today, but what about the next big tech stocks you can own for the next 40 years . The four names our traders are betting on big. Plus, golds doing something it hasnt done since this movie was a hit. And it could just be the start of a much bigger move when fast money returns. Woe are wishing a very happy birthday to apple, the company skel bralting the anniversary of its founding on this day 40 years ago by steve jobs, Steve Wozniak and ryan wayne. Were joined now by apple cofounder Steve Wozniak. A pleasure to be able to speak to you. A pleasure to be able to talk to you. Does it feel like just yesterday you were sitting around in a garage just tinkering . I can go back to that point in time, and i kind of smile because we were so young and naive. We didnt know, you know, like if you didnt know something is possible but try it. We had an idea. We had no business experience and thought if you start a company and its mildly success and you have that company and that name 100 years later or 40 years later even, and now i realize how rare that is to start a company that that stayed itself for that long a time. You know, and in the beginning we did we knew we were going to be a big thing and knew we would make a big thing and personal computers were going to grow beyond what it was in the very early day and it would help mankind in so many ways. Education was one of the key driving points that it was going to affect in ways we couldnt imagination. Communication, look what weve got today and just to be able to go into a company and reprogram systems that big mainframes used to do and look at our mobile internet and everybody does that so our early dreams were kind of on a right path. We dont see where they would go and how that path would evolve but we knew it was big. Apple, of course, was at the forefront of so many leaps in technology over the past 40 years. I mean, do you think that there will be leaps of equal or greater size in the next 40 years . Steve . I think were having difficulty with the connection. Well try to reestablish that connection. In the meantime, you know, steve mentioned so many great things at apple and other companies have been sort of spearheading in terms of what weve seen in the past 40 years in personal computing and communications. Its been huge, but, you know, im still long a. I intend to stay long apple, but when you look at it, theres i dont know if the genius that we saw on that screen right there, the bears will say the genius is out of apple, but the bulls will tell you that theres a host of Value Investors that will always want to buy apple regardless if those people on that screen are with the company or without. They created an amazing company. I i remember getting my first apple, the apple 2 gs and the wozniak signature on the hard drive. It was an amazing thing to get and open up and work with. I look at the growth of the company and the innovation that they have had. Its been incredible. I cant imagine people look back 40 years ago and would believe that apple would be where it is today so i say to you that i really look forward to see what they really come with. I think the upgrade with the new technology in the new phone like we talked about yesterday will be a very innovative thing for the upgrade cycle. I dont know what they have but a really good time to drive it. The apple message, the Apple Ecosystem and the Apple Essence ask something thats really only scratched the tip in a number of countries and im talking about emerging quarters. March iphone sales are expected to be down 15 , thats fine, its in the price and second half of the year with the 7 release, with india, with china and the rest of that platform and a 4inch phone, yes, you own this stock. The genius of apple is they made us all believe collectively that its cool to own their products and we have to have everything they make. If you look its the original. Hold it to the side, like an inch thick. Is that bad . Like heavy, foo. Does that a beta max ton. Eight track tape player. Put it to size. I love it. Have their apple phones and everything. Right. Do you think you should own the stock through thick and thin because thats a real question that comes up on the show all the time when people are playing the market. Ive tried to be on either side of it and typically i get it wrong more than i get it right and the answer is if youre going to be in and be in it and close your eyes. My concern all along has been with apple. Are they this generations sony, and we know what happened. I think its f. A. N. G. Stocks, are you in momo or value . Were in value right now . I think people are looking for yield, and granted its not a tremendous yield. Apple is in vogue now. 110. When we look at it the sell bounce levels should have been 105 basically to 109, but its breaking those. Were reestablished our connection with Steve Wozniak, the cofounder of apple. Glad to reestablish the connection. Steve, were you calling in on an iphone . Thats a gap in the technology and when youre in the mountains, cellular. You asked about the next 40 years. I was going to point out that the increase as far as the thinking ability, if you have, of digital equipment, computers on to our smartphones today, an increase of at least a million times in 40 years, the technology, the parts that computers are made of increased a million times. Now, do we expect that to happen in the next 40 years . There was something called moores law and it hits physics of devices that can be made and thats for of the same reason that i would not expect in the next 40 years, may come up with more clever ways to get learning machines to act more like the human brain. Kind of reached the human brain level almost of complexity and ability and will it go further in the next 40 years . It could start thinking for itself and program learning on its own faster than humans can, so we could see something that seems to be so amazing, but its hard to put numbers on things when youre talking about, you know, a million fewer chips to do the same job. Right. As 40 years ago. Its hard to say what would that amount to 40 years from now . So i cant put a number on it. Weve got yeah. Weve got just about 30 seconds, steve, and imwanted your take on things youre most excited about technologically lets not say 40 years, too long. Lets say five years. Well, a whole bunch of things. The very essence of our artificial intelligence, machines understanding us, we living our human life and they understanding what we mean and selfdriving vehicles that look at the road and made analysis and do jobs better than humans and virtual reality, i mean, thats i look at oculus, its like a hero to me, to put you into a different world is what computers did digit talley. Amazing. And they are Getting Better and better and are more like a real world and were there. Thanks for calling in on this 40th birthday for apple. A pleasure speaking with you. Go back to the mountains. Nice talking to you. Awesome, half famer. That does it for us here on fast money. Dont go anywhere options actions up next. Baas thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 59. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. Hey there. Were live at the Nasdaq Market site on this sunny friday afternoon. The guys back here are getting ready. While they are doing that, heres whats coming up. Money will always be paper, but gold will always be gold. And the gold chart is doing something very unusual. It could make you a lot of money. Well break it down. Plus could the success of the model 3 mean the end of musk at tesla . Its april fools somewhere. But this aint no joke to tesla investors. Well explain. And heres what u. S. Stocks are doing to the rest of the world. But heres what could happen next. Drago with a hard right hand and stuns rocky balboa. And believe it or not well tell you how to profit from all of that. The action begins right now. Snows flying high now lets get right to t. Sl