Straight week. Believe it or not theyre almost flat on the year. Are we in the clear . Is it too late to participate in this upside . Some names, absolutely. Ill say this, i never thought we would get here by march 11th. Were talking about 2025 by the time we got to the 1950 level. Were also here at 16. 5. If you look back at the last 1218 months, were getting towards levels that the vicks doesnt like. What does that mean . It doesnt like to stay here that long. I think we would all agree that 220 points in the s p in a month is assessive. Is it late . I think its a little bit late. Yeah. Even constructive on the markets, what do you do at this point . I said were going to see a sell off. I think weve had a positioning rally. Weve talked about that and had a massive short cutting rally to a lot of different sectors of the tape. I think its a sell here. Look, i think were overdone too far, too fast, i would be taking profits across the board. Theres no sector i look at and say i want to step into at these leve levels. I will say sentiments arent so horrible. The whole point that theyre dead in the water when in fact theres year over year comps that are much better. Im not telling you were in an earnings expansion. That kind of mentality is the reason why the markets are going. Im not saying theres no reason why the market can drift higher. I dont see this market running away. I think theres more down side risk than short term risk. I dont want to be painted in a corner here. Even though ive been constructive on markets, i think markets are going sideways. Right now, going into this meet where we have fed 16, dollar over sold, youre basically 20 30 which again the course of people that each time markets go higher have a new level to say this is the level by the way, but this is 2030 a key level for the markets. If youre talking about me, say it. I have said 2025 now. Im not talking about you. I say if i read any technical guy out there, theyre talking about 2030. Theres been a lot of levels thrown around. If youre looking for reasons to sell the market, you can find them all the way up. I think were in overbought conditions. Heres the key to this. I think everybody on this desk was saying lets not press our shorts. Now were back up at 2025. I dont know if it goes to 2050. I have no idea. I know i dont want to be buying into a panic into a buy saying now ive got to get in. Whether or not you agree with what the ecb did or not, the potential for the sector banks stepping away is there and the market has to be supported by earnings and you have to ask yourself will this market, these evaluations and price be supported by earnings. I have to think at the very least whether you agree with me or somebody else you got to be five points. I think the person at home wants to know this. February 11th, something changed that enabled us to move that much higher. What is that . Everything changed that day. At 2 30 in the afternoon that started it. Post closed that day you had jamie saying he was buying however many shares of j. P. Morgan. Those three things, absolutely changed. And then conditions were so oversold, we were more embarrassed than people in march 2009. Again, putting a credit, credit. Oil and gas, energy, credit issues, no question. Fed raising and ratcheting up liquidity conditions so its getting tighter and tighter, i get that. To say were in 2008, 2009 levels, i dont agree with. We still are at a 2008 type of situation when youre talking about deleveraging and a global deleveraging. U. S. Banks are different. None of these three things change the big picture macro dynamics going on out there that are in the process. Perhaps, perhaps the ecb what they did yesterday was a stealth bail out for the banks. That doesnt mean the operating environment is better. Were leaning more toward sales and the pressure put on the market early on. I think thats going to be a paste process. As long as oil actually does go much lower from this price, look, i dont think thats going to continue to the extent we saw in the first quarter. With the risk to reward down side, what do you know . I think it adds up your book. For the last couple of days ive been selling 30, 50, 70 base point positions in a lot of stocks that have a run. That includes things like cocacola and mcdonalds thats had huge runs. Even though those are bunker stocks, i think theres a place to say these things get ahead of themselves. Quantitative miss read. I think you got to stay with it. A 100 understand. Youre talking about levels that made double tops at 44. 5 or so. I think the risk reward is an easy trade. Youre long here against 43. 5. To me, it sets up interestingly. Back in january the s p had fallen 10 and bk said this. So, what do investors at home do . You stay in cash. If you have ridden this market up from 2008 and 2009 in your ira and 401k. Thats if youre not cash. Since the s p fell 8 and then bounced back more than 10 . Bk, what do you do . You stay in cash. I stick by that call. Listen, the big picture here is were going through a goble deleveraging. In my view thats going to take a process that puts us in this bare market. My call is if you have made money since 2008 and youre a retiree and youre five years, 10 years, i cant speak to what everybodys doing but why wouldnt you take profits and be safe . This is an extremely dangerous environment. The macro environment hasnt changed. Most professional investors i know are having a tough year this year. How is the home gamer going to have a better time . I think hes saying go to cash if you think at this point markets could get nasty and youve made some money. I disagree in that you can get to a place where people can be too cute in this market and we had such extreme headlines people didnt know what was right. Im not saying brian was wrong about his assessment of the world because he was talking about this 69 months but you get to a place where markets were absolutely not a true read on fundamentals. It happened in credit and energy and its been painful. Right. I would just adjust as much as 1810 maybe markets didnt reflect fundamentals there, they didnt reflect it up here either. Thats why i stick by that call. If youre not in cash, theres nothing wrong with being that way. If you want to turn in the market and want to be aggressive, have at it. Theres plenty of opportunities out there. Where should equities be then . Im not telling you i love 30 in the s p but i have a big problem with 1810. My call the 1620 and thats a technical call based on what weve already done. I think we could go sideways. If we really get a massive deleveraging over the next couple of years and again, this is a multiyear call. If we get that then 1610 is going to look like an awful great place to sell stocks. Next week were at a few simple banks. A lot of things can happen. Cash call or no . I like cash call at this level and i do believe brian was pointing and talking to a group of investors that really need to preserve cash and i think at that level he made a decision to say that and i back him from that perspective but i look at the market here and say i believe were fairly valued right now. When i say fairly valued my call has been flat in a year. Right now as a whole equities in general are fairly valued. So over valued equities and energy got way too aggressive. They over shot and i think they can be over valued. Coming up next, something has changed in the oil market as one of wall streets biggest fairs. Throwing in the towel hell tell us what that is and how hes playing through plus this man has a bone to pick with several companies and having a curious effect on their stock prices. The names that should be worried when trump lets loose. Later, small caps, big problems, well tell you what one trader is saying nows the time to get short. All that when we return. Man 1 [ gasps ] man 1 he just got fired. Man 2 why . Man 1 network breach. Man 2 since when do they fire ceos for computer problems . Man 1 they got in through a vendor. Man 1 do you know how many vendors have access to our systems . Man 2 no. Man 1 hundreds, if you dont count the freelancers. Man 2 should i be worried . Man 1 you are the ceo. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. When youre on hold, your business is on hold. Thats why comcast business doesnt leave you there. When you call, a Small Business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. No annoying hold music. Just a real person, real fast. Whenever you need them. Great, thats what i said. So your business can get back to business. Sounds like my rides ready. Dont get stuck on hold. Reach an expert fast. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to fast money. The man who joined fast money in 2012 said this. The next 45 days are challenging for crude. Were going to see less demand for crude oil in the United States over the next few weeks or so. So i think that we havent necessarily seen the lows. Oil prices have rallied over 30 since then and oil jumped 7 this week alone hitting a new high for 2016. One of the streets biggest oil bares about to throw in a towel . The oil Price Service and cofounder joins us again. Great to have you on the program. Nice to be here. Actually the next 45 days is going to be very dangerous for crude oil as well. I think we saw the bottom and that bottom was 26. 05 or 26. 10. The problem is we made up the easy ground on what is going to be the road with a lot of hills and valleys. We started the year and the market behaved like the New York Knicks. The last couple of weeks its more like the golden state warrio warriors. Somewhere in between is the market thats going to trade not much higher than 45 for the first half of the year. All right. So you just offended all the New York Knicks fans. The brooklyn mets, lets put it how it is. Putting that aside. 45. What sort of keeps you up . What could be the one wild card that could send us higher than that or lower for that matter . The wild cards that could send us higher is the wild card that sent us this high in the first place which is money flow. You had a tremendous volume that was put in brent and also had a lot of the short money covered this week in wti. So theres one thing i learned in 2008 when we went to a hundred and i thought that was ridiculous and we got to 145 is that money can move the market far, far more than you think. I think it will be more temper at. We have a lot of crude oil out there and world supply probably about a million to a million and a quarter barrels a day more than demand. The scary thing about this week was the eia came out with numbers earlier in the week which were very bar rish talking about 37 million in 2017. Maybe that was a kiss of death for the bare market. Tom, were going to leave it there. Thanks for calling in. Appreciate it. Take care. Okay. So a lot on the line there. We seen the worst of it. Even with the surge, was 40 oil enough to save the number of oil stocks. Lets play who lives and who dies . Thats a good game. Its like the dead pool for stocks. Anyway. Its kind of morbid. Lets start with the the drillers. Oil topped out in 2014. Along with the transit ports as it turns out and the stock traded in kind. We got on that probably early in 15 and said listen, you got to stay away. Good chance trades 60, Bottom Dollar from a few years. Im not right a lot but now we got this one right. Heres a stock that trades 28 times forward earnings which is in my opinion a little too ridiculous. Too far, too fast. Im not saying it dies but the stock goes back down to 68. This particular sub sector of oil stocks have done extremely well in the past month. Right and they did extremely poorly in the months before that. My point is we know where ground zero is. We know what the names are going to be. If we go lower, those types of names are going to do poorly. My view is we trade 20 40 for the next couple of years. These are the names that over that period of time are going to have a real tough time. Were talking names like pioneer natural, weatherford international. Tim is talking frackers. I was looking more at the emp names. I look at the names and say theres a reflection point in oil. You look at 40 being a crucial level. I dont think people are paying attention to that. 40, whats the cash flow number thats going to be positive and allow them to cover the caps back . Its around 4045. That needs to be sustained to be a little bit cash flow positive with no investment. I think thats an important point. If you make the argument oil is going to stay at 40 bucks, you can make the assumption that apache is not going to do well. You look at a name like noble or theyre going to do okay because 4045 is the sweet spot for them. Its looking at cash flow and the inflection point. I need a fracker who lives or dies. Anyone want to play . I tell you what, somebody like eog or a place like where you have these guys you talk about where youre going to live. The whole play here is thats why oil is not going back down lower. We price is all these guys. I need a fracker who lives or dies. Chesapeake. Chesapeake, im not saying shorter here. Its already gotten crushed. At 40 oil if it stays at this level or lower chesapeake dies because the higher oil prices. Integrated oils, tim. I think theyre interesting. They should trade, yes at a premium. Chevron has gone from 45 billion to 24 billion in cap backs. These guys have a balance to allow them not only to pay the dividend but be in a place where theyre opportunitistic. Theyre someone in a position with a dividend unlike. How long is the dividend safe if it stays at 40 . I think exons dividend to 20 stays safe. Theyre best suited. I think exon at 82. 5 on a day when it was up huge and the stock didnt move tells you maybe a 22 times forward earning is too expensive. Still ahead one area of the market with a monster run in the past month. Well take you behind the trade. Youre watching fast money on cnbc. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. Todays a good day to die. I, i just died in your arms tonight thats because we found a way to revive the dead stocks in your portfolio and make money even if they flat line. Well explain. Plus are certain stocks getting trumped . Who ever heard of a thing like that . Well, donald, three companies you called out have since suffered dismal returns. Well give you the names and see if theyre worth adding to your portfolio when fast money returns. Margaret and tom lee. The championship game ball . That was sebastian diaz. Good guy. And all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. Their life savings is now my lifestyle. Female announcer dont let someone else live the life youre saving for. Find out if youre dealing with a registered investment professional at investor. Gov. Its a great first step toward protecting your money. Before you invest, investor. Gov. Wont keep you up at night. N know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. Know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. With the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future youve always wanted. That was donald trump making comments on several High Profile Companies saying take a look at the moves since trump singled them out. The s p up 7 . Next up trump set back on november 18th he was never eating another oreo again ever, ever. Since then, its down 5 . Last up, they called for a boycott and starbucks has fallen 8 since then. Should you be concerned at all when donald trump lets loose on a stock that sits in your portfolio . Im waiting for them to say theyre going to boycott spray tan. Thats not going to happen any time soon. Youre never seating another oreo. The fact of the matter is theyre expensive stocks. The reason they sold off is not because the donald said hes not eating another double stuffed. Were in a place where you have a guy with a podium and mantle and shouting abunch of stuff and its a market participate and a joke. Its ridiculous. If youre trading because of something trump said, hour, at some point this year, it will start to matter to guys point. People start factoring that in to their big picture market forecast. Ive made some controversial calls and the one i stick by, i said oreo cookies are a staple model luxury. Right on. Thats clear. Just quickly, as soon as donald trump mentions a stock. I think its a problem whether its donald trump, hillary clinton, anybody in politics mentions those names its going to go sideways and none of them are going to be good. Lets shift gears a little bit. Psa here. This weekend is daylight savings time. People turn their clocks forward. Forward at 2 00 a. M. On sunday. In lieu of the final trade were going to take a look at stocks set to spring ahead from here. Tim, kick it off. These guys are stealing from the retailers online. Theyre stealing electronics. China has been sold off dramatically. Universal display oead. The secret sauce in the new Screen Technology everybodys going after. Nice sound. For me, its lockhead martin. Win, win, win. Got downgraded today and still up 2. 5 . 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