Well tell you what that is and why some traders feel the stock could soon take off. We start off with a wild day for stocks. Youre thinking, what are you talking about . The dow is swinging as much as 300 points after the central bank announced another dose of free money. Guess what, stocks shrugged. Is the free trade money over in our Central Banks out of bullets . I dont know if theyre out of bullets but theyre certainly losing an awful lot of credibility. Today was an insanely wild day. If you were just walking the stock market from 9 30 to 10 00, you missed most of the action. The euro was fluctuating. Mario draghi was talking. Multiply it by ten for stocks. Youre looking at a 10 to 15 decline relatively when youre talking about currencies versus stock. That was a big move. Then it completely ripped to the upside when mario draghi said, you know what . Were probably not going to cut rates anymore. Were probably done. Thats where they lost credibility. Then you saw stocks start to roll over and thats how we ended the day. Youre saying they have no credibility because theyre doing all this stuff. That doesnt make sense. What do you mean . Someone out there is saying Central Banks have lost their efficacy, and the ecb is stretching their bounds. If theyre saying, you know what, france just opened up the french labor market was the best since 2007, the numbers in the eu continue to look better. The pmis continue to go lower. The Inflation Numbers are atrocious. I think the root of the question, tim, we saw major unwind of the trade. The initial reactions to the market to draghis bazooka was as expected. Complete unwind. Two things. The first thing, its a credit bazooka. You want to mess with our banks . Were going to go after it. I dont want to be Short Deutsche Bank here. Why not . Because if the ecb is willing to bail out greece, do you think theyre not going to bail out Deutsche Bank . Look at the u. S. Banks, they went down 17 . Why wouldnt Deutsche Bank go down 17 . If youre right, thats what i was looking at, why wouldnt the exactly. Ultimately, if you look at the whole market trade, deutsche started to trade higher towards the end of the day. Deutsche was up 1. 5 today. You know what, i think a lot of people, just like a fed move, you cant process it in five seconds. Okay . The bottom line here is all the people say theres all this divergent central bank activity. Maybe theres not and the dollars not going to the moon. Maybe all the dollar trades the dax was weak today. If you thought this was the culmination of everything we were waiting for, the dax should have been strong, and it wasnt. What concerns me is if the economies are strong, the data he just talked about is accurate data. So why do they feel it necessary, they being the ecb, to make the move as drastically as they do . Its not a conspiracy i dont think economies are strong ascertain things suggest. If they were, i dont think these extraordinary means would be necessary. The fact that we talk about Central Banks daily, nightly here at 5 00, theyve inserted themselves in the conversation. They paint themselves into a corner that gets smaller and smaller. In my opinion, at some point they make a misstep. Do you want to mess with that . Everyones been trying to gain the central bank game, especially when they felt like in early january it was all coming apart. Youve got the ecb come back with probably more look, today was creative. If nothing else, theyre going for different ways to protect credit which is the place where everyone ill give you that. The question is, will this improve the european economy. And if you look at whats happening in the past, it does not look like its going to improve the european economy. The banks wont let it. Heres also the problem. These markets have been addicted to softening dove stances. We have the two biggest economies in the world that are tightening right now. You have china thats selling treasuries, supporting the yuan, timing, strictly money supply, and were doing the same thing. You cant have the two biggest economies tightening against that back drop. I agree. Everybody said that Credit Conditions globally are tightening is right. You have a major change, and peoples bank of china didnt say they were tightening. If anything, they were acome dative. What do you do in this environment . I think you go back to treasuries. They didnt trade particularly well today. Look at whats going on in the world, our tenyear at 1. 8 to me looks pretty attractive against the landscape of negative Interest Rates globely. Again, lets talk about the markets, though. I would be a seller of going into the fed this is where i can line up with these guys. They have a Straight Line higher off oversold positions. I could hedge my portfolio with that, its a tactical call. Stocks are going sideways, people. Valuations are not that bad. Youre walking into a wall of resistance technically. If you think were challenged fundamentally, we have the 50week moving average, 100week moving average, its all within 2 . You get the gun lock 2 up to a risk of 10 , at least 10 down. What are you doing . I think you buy the dollar. I bought some more today. You did . Yeah. Going into the fed, this opens the door for the fed to be at least more hawkish. Divergent central bank policy, not so di vent anymore. I may want to be a buyer here of the except for the fact the dollar all the things the people are saying about the s p, the dollar is making lower lows, technically broken, too. Lets move on here. Were talking about currencies a lot. Im walking and talking. A lot of people just look at the u. S. Equity market. Like i said in the beginning of the show, if you didnt watch the currency markets, you missed the whole thing. This is a longer term picture. This is the euro, u. S. Dollar in orange, s p 500 in blue. You can see what happened here. Back in 2012, when mario draghi gave the what it takes speech, everyone got excited. But the euro actually went up about 17 . Along with that, the u. S. Stock market, the s p 500 rose. Until about this point right here, what happened then . That was 2014, when the ecb actually took action, started to cut rates, the euro dropped like a stone down 25 in less than a year. Dollar ripped. And then look what happened to the s p 500. We started the form, what im assuming is a topping pattern. Weve gone sideways here. Looks like weve topped out. Weve come back up to the trend line here. And if today the ecb opened the door for the fed to be more hawkish next week, then what youre going to get is the euro, its going to drop lower as the feds are more hawkish, dollar goes higher, and that would be negative for the blue line, which is the s p 500. Hold on a second. Explain to me what are we following . Are we following the euro or following the s p . In this market, if you get the dollar right, you get this market right. Im sorry, but real quick, in terms of the s p, at what point does your bear space never hold water . For you to say, you know what, folks, maybe this market still has legs . Its not so much about the market trading at a certain price, its china deleveraging, european economy getting better. And its actually the dollar going lower. But the dollar going lower because theres coordinated policy that says, hey, we need a lower dollar, Something Like a plaza cord. The market could trade higher and i could look like a fool, but i wouldnt change my mind unless those things happen. Its been a tough few weeks. Where do you think the s ps going . Its one thing to say theres going to be a pullback, another thing to say were going to 1620. Valuations dont justify that. Valuations dont justify anything ever. Theyre just as important as the 200day moving average. I still think it goes to 1620. I think were in a multiyear as long as we all believe it. Youre basically telling me this is a momentum move. People chasing a momentum. Thats whats dangerous whats going on right now. I think you cannot get we can agree on that, that this is a big boys market here. If you are not comfortable trading this volatility, you shouldnt be in this market at all. Again, my call is a multiyear bear market. We start down to 1620. You want to go ahead and trade this tape, knock yourself out if you think you can do it. Last word. I think if all of us can agree its a confusing market, you have to say where do you draw the line. You have to throw in your bear suit and buy. Stocks rallying nearly 10 from lows. But its whos been doing the bulk of the buying. Hillary clinton has talked a tough game about drug pricing. But you wont believe some of her biggest financial backers. The report that will have you scratching your hefd and maybe buying some biotech stocks. It is official. March 21st event is here. The company is expected to unveil a new product. With the department of justice coming down on the company, will it even matter to investors. Weve got the details when fast money returns. Man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back to fast money. Want to know whos buying stocks . Take a look at these stats, courtesy of our friend silver blat. Corporations have purchased an estimated 146 billion. That is more than all of q 1 last year. The corporations, the only one buying stock out there, guy. Steve talks about trying to prove counterfactual. Where would the market be but for these buybacks. My sense is, anywhere from 15 to 18 lower. What is buybacks . It creates scarcity. Supply and demand comes into the equation. I would summit that one of the unintended or maybe intended consequences of the feds action, Interest Rates, cheap money, is to allow the company to buy back stocks. To me, unfortunately, forsaking reinvesting in the firms, hiring people, those such things, its been the easy way out for companies. Worked for some, hasnt worked for others. I think the market is inflated based on these buybacks. They have a terrible time. I dont want to unfairly accuse just them, they have a terrible time at picking the right level. Its usually an indication of the toch of the market. Theyve been buying back stock for so long think about what some of these guys are doing. Jamie dimon at jpmorgan, and i agree with you on the youre using steve nguyen as a a corporate buyback. Lets talk about corporate buybacks. If they think their stock is more attractive risk reward for a fiduciary responsibility, thats right. The discount rate is low. The valuation on stocks goes higher. This is actually good for stocks. But heres the thing. This has been one of the pillars of the bull market. But a lot of investors now, when you ask them what would you want done with Corporate Cash . Buyback option on the list. Capital expenditures, they want growth. What sectors do you see that . Thats the problem, you dont. Youre saying investors want that . Yeah. Investors Want Companies to definitely not energy. Definitely not utilities. I dont even think in retail. In every sector isnt everybody worried about credit . Guys, hold on im blowing the whistle. Theyre all talking over each other. Lets use the example of apple. They borrow a lot of money, buy back a lot of stock. They have oodles of catch to spend on research and development. Without the buyback, where would p a pl stock be . Its already terrible, right . If you had a pick, look at apples to apples, people would rather have a dividend versus a buyback. When we look at it, lets look at the market. The market is actually the decider of where money should be put, or allocated. The stocks that have better dividends and less buybacks that outperform. I agree with steve. And apples got a 3 yield here. When you think about the environment that they operate in, these guys are going to continue to be a dividend stock. This is another reason stocks perversely should be trading at a premium right now because of the dividend yields relative to the bond market. On the flip side, an ibm. Lots and lots of buybacks. Its allowed the companies to take the easy way out. Its forced them not to look at their companies and evaluate whats going on. We have all this cash on hand. We can borrow cheap money. Why not buy back our stock. It doesnt allow them to be as introspective as they possibly should be. In my opinion, again, its the unintended consequences of our feds actions. Still ahead, one of the hardest hit banks this year. Whats got bankers so excited when we return. Heres what else is coming up on fast. Which one of these candidates has received the most amount of money from Drug Companies . Well tell you why the groups biggest critic, clinton, may be biotechs biggest beneficiary. The prices are insane thats what traders are saying that have sat out the rally. Well tell you what they are, and why they could bring your portfolio fast money, right after these messages. Its a fact. Kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. Oh, look at you, so great to see you none of this works. Come on in. This is a letter from someone is here. Shes been taking this drug from the 1980s. It cost approximately 180 ds for ten shots. The latest retail was 1,407 for the same ten vials. Valiant pharmaceuticals, im going after them. This is predator pricing. And were going to make sure it is stopped. Im Hillary Clinton and i approve this message. That was Hillary Clinton in a recent campaign ad taking a swing at pharma giant valeant. She calls out Big Companies for practices, she may not be biotechs biggest foe. Meg is here with the story. What is the deal, meg . That was just one of the examples of the ways Hillary Clinton is proud to call it one of her biggest enemies. So we decided to look into how much the Pharma Industry has supported her campaign. It turns out they have given more money to Hillary Clinton than theyve given to any other candidate. Theyve given her almost 600,000. We can see there shes way ahead of every other candidate whos still in the race. Its almost half of what farm ha has given to candidates overall. If you look at the breakdown, they actually give more money to republicans than democrats. Hillary clinton as a single candidate has garnered the most support from pharma. Its interesting, because shes been credited with really tanking the entire business in biotech. Biotech has fallen 30 . And people still talk about her as this big enemy. Ive been calling around trying to figure out how this makes sense. It looks like through these contributions, for individuals working in the pharmaceutical industry, pfizer or Johnson Johnson or donating to Hillary Clinton, they dont think of her as an enemy. Maybe this makes sense, because Hillary Clinton could actually be the most positive candidate of all the folks on the horizon for the pharmaceutical industry. Hes comparing them to maybe a Bernie Sanders or trump who have come out even more strongly, with things that arent as clear with the impacts. He said Hillary Clinton, we know at least what her policies, shes laid them out pretty clearly. The devil you know sort of thinking. Exactly. Or perhaps if they donate in force, that they can actually influence what she does. Yeah. Shes garnered the most Campaign Contributions of any candidate. So its the same in pharma. Its interesting when shes calling out this industry, saying they are her enemy, they still are giving her the most money. This is emblematic for what is wrong with washington. This is why the fringe candidates are getting what theyre getting, because they seem to be unaffiliated with anybody. Im sure hillary has taken an enormous amount of money, even from the nra. Think about where washington and Corporate America are conflicted, lobby groups. This is the biggest problem. Unfortunately, thats not a reason to vote for someone who has no affiliation. This is more synonymous with the banks. Im sure shes got the most money from the banks, too. They found biotech is the new banks as far as donations, as far as the new target zone. And thats whats going on right now. I think mike brings up a good point in knowing what youre dealing with. As far as proposals, you know better what at least you can deal with it. The market doesnt like uncertainty. At least youre certain at least youre certain. Or maybe you believe does it make them more investable . No, not at all. I think biotechs pharmas are a sell before the election. Certainly not going to be what it is now, right . At least you can assume that. But you still dont know. I would say that if anything, maybe they think that they have more influence. Thats how the games played. Unfortunately. This is where i agree with tim, its how the game is played. Its sad, but true. This rhetoric will continue. Its easy for her. You see people standing up and cheering. And this is a lamp, like going after wall street. There are no advocateadvocates. It makes political sense to do it. But you cant buy these stocks for a while. A while isnt until at least november. Or technically until they flush out. Whats weird about the whole situation is everybody says that the rhetoric will continue until the election. Nobodys convinced nothing will change until who gets elected. Is it baked in that folks realize the rhetoric is there. People are accepting this is depressing stocks in the biotech industries. I think i would think in a market environment, which people are uncertain of the direction of stocks overall, this is certainly a sector that you want to why would you go into this particular sector with this noticeable headwind here. That to me is whats going on. Think about how crowded this trade was, u. S. Health care, biotech, these are parts of the market that were some of the most crowded trades in an environment, if people think credit is being will reeled back, the same amount of bc money isnt going into this. Its not changed overnight but this is exactly why i think the sector is under pressure. I would say its more in a traded environment. Stay away from biotech. The longer they focus on biotech. Banks were their target zone. It started out with to back could, then banks they cant chew gum and walk at the same time . No. Clearly. Coming up nerks, the four mega cap stocks sitting out this rally. The names and whether theyre offering a perfect buying opportunity. Using very harsh words in the latest response to apple. What it could mean for the stock when fast money returns. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Companies must adapt. Environment, but one thing should remain constant a financial relationship with someone that understands and cares about your business. Pnc corporate and Institutional Banking offers strategies tailored to your companys needs. Know that our dedicated teams of local experts offer insight to help you achieve your business objectives. See how working with pnc can help your company grow at pnc. Com ideas welcome back to fast money. Volatile day in the market. The dow swinging 300 points. Recovering most of the losses by the end of the day. This as the ecb cut rates. Heres whats coming up in the second half of fast money. When this man speaks, people listen. Byron ween joins us as our godfather of wall street. The showdown with the government heating up, will it matter to the stock. Weve got the details. The s p 500 rallied nearly 10 since february low. But curiously, very large and popular stocks have set off this rally. Breaking down the big cap laggard is a man always leading, the one and only don shu. Where is don . Hold on a second. We told him he was supposed to be here. Dom . Mr. Reliable, actually. Wheres dom . Dom . No, no, guys. Whoa im thinking this might be a cameo appearance, finally, in person at the Nasdaq Market site. So i felt compelled to come down here. I had to spin out of my chair just to get down here and see you guys. Lets talk about whats happening with the stock market overall. Like you guys said, its been a huge run since what some are calling the 10 move higher. Lets talk about some of these real big brand names out there who have not participated in this rally whatsoever. Lets take a look at these. Since the february 11th closing low for the stock market overall, walmart, we know this guys been a laggard in the dow over the course of the past year, certainly calendar 2015. Its only up about 2 , even though the market is up nearly 10 . Vis a shares up 2. 5 . Versus the 910 for the market. Nike, up 4 . Respectable, but not market at least performing. And starbucks shares, up 4. 5 . The interesting part is, i want to focus on nike and walmart. Only because if you take a look among these four names, guys, the nike chart has been a bit of a roller coaster. According to the average analyst target price, nike shares, maybe up around this level here. Thats 72. 33. That implies possibly 25 upside from current levels. So as we talk about some of these components, nike perhaps not growing as fast as it used to. But still maybe faster than some of the other ones on the list. Thats the reason why some of these guys get a lot of attention. For that reason, guys, i think at least some of these stocks are worth paying attention to, right . Paying attention, and what do we do here . I guess my question is, dom, these are names that are not value names, right . If you think about nike, trading around 25, 26 times its historical probably 16 to 18. We know they deserve a premium. They absolutely dominate their industry. I think theyre actually doing better in china than we think. Were in a market where people are not overpaying. I think thats exactly where we are. But it sets up for guys for doms theory, these are great buys at some level. These are companies that in many cases are also paying a very good dividend. I think you have to pick your spots. About this nike, at least for nike stock, youre not getting it for the dividend yield. Youre talking about a stock thats maybe gotten a 1. 1 overall yield for this stock. Youll get it for the growth profile, not the payout. But the walmart we were talking about, youre talking about a 3 dividend yield there. A big underperformer. We know there are secular headwinds for the stock. The majority of analysts have a hold on it. 22 say that so far. Maybe walmart becomes one of those compelling cases because its been such an underperformer for so long. It has this huge brand, the biggest retailer in the world and it still pays a 3 dividend. Maybe thats getting some attention, right . Buyer of walmart here . Yes. Yes . Absolutely. This is one that could do well over the next couple years. Because, one, youve got the discount. Theyve already gone through much of their restructuring. Of all those four, thats what i would want to buy. I thought the consumer was dead. Wouldnt walmart be under Major Pressure in addition to the secular issues they face . What about the walmarts already gone for that. Minimum wage, they have not recovered. Once they raise the minimum wage it can never get back to where it once was. They wanted to be politically correct. They werent thinking about the corporation. Can we have dom over . Hes never here. Come over, dom. Its a pleasure to be with you guys. Welcome aboard, man. Im always happy to be part of the show. It makes even more, i guess joy for me to be here when i get to be with you guys in person. It doesnt happen very often i get to make a new york city appearance. I certainly do appreciate it. Youre so full of crap, dom. Whoa i get to see grasso on a quasi regular basis at the stock exchange. That was genuine. Just saying. Dom, thank you for coming by. Youre very welcome, guys. Thank you. Better looking in person by the way. Even better looking. Just saying. One and only dom chu. Big bets today. The most important dow stock could soon surge. Well take you behind that trade that raised a lot of eyebrows in the pits. Apple shares were dead money, but that soon change at their Upcoming Product event. What cook will say, right after this break. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. And in syracuse, where imagination is in production. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov welcome back to fast money. Apples invite is out for the march 21st event, as the doj takes its latest swipe at the company. Josh . Well, melissa, the invitation to this event reading simply let us loop you in already plenty of speculation about what that means. Some guessing, listen, maybe its simply a reference to apples address, one infinite loop. Apple saying the event will take place in cupertino, california, with a presentation at 10 00 a. M. Pacific. So what could apple unveil . The expectation is that were going to see a new smaller iphone, with a 4inch display and faster chip. Now, rbc estimates that phone could generate sales of nearly 6 billion this fiscal year. Out of a total of 230 billion. So a modest positive impact there. Also expected a next generation ipad and selection of apple watchbands. We should point out that apple saying it declines to comment on rumor when we asked them about what could be unveiled at this event. Also, as you mentioned, melissa, the very next day on march 22nd, thats when apple and the u. S. Government square off in court in riverside, california, over whether the tech giant can be forced to help the fbi access that phone used by one of the San Bernardino terrorists. That fight has become a lot more heated in a court filing just today, the doj calling the rhetoric false and corrosive. Lots of apple news on the way. Stay tuned. Josh, i think most investors are focusing on the new products. When you mentioned the smaller phone, i mean, i cant think of another word except that sounds kind of lame. The innovation in the 6 cycle was the larger phone and now its going back to the phone of a size similar to the 5s. What is expected to be in the smaller i dont think most investors look at this event in the spring as one of apples bigger events. This is typically when they launch products that dont move the needle. The bigger events will be the Developers Conference in june, and again, for investors, for your viewers, of course, the big event in the fall when you get usually that new upgrade to the phone. Josh lipton, thank you. In englewood cliffs. I wasnt sure if he was actually there, so i had to read it twice. Worlds colliding here. In terms of apple, weve got two major things going on. People are wanting to know what the products are going to be down the pipeline, and theres the doj. What wins out . Products. Its got to be products first. The doj thing will hover for a while. I still think they lose either way. If they acquiesce, they upset the customer base, and when you dig in their heels, they get politicians on their backs. That will go away. Heres a stock that now hasnt performed almost for a year. I think it was may of last year when it topped out. Somethings going on. The good news for apple, bulls, youve seen price action like this before in 2012. Into the middle of 13. And the stock exploded again. Maybe youre seeing similar. Until you get back above 105 or so, it seems dead in the water. I dont agree, though. At 94, which is where the stock tests down, 92, 94, at least make that your stop. Through the worst of times, and i think the worst of times are sentiment. People think that this is a this is not their only lawsuit against the u. S. Government. They have the price fixing thing related to itunes. Theyve been at odds with the government before. At 92, 94, thats the stop. Valuation with that dividend yield im going to say the doj story is in the ninth inning at this point. I think products are definitely where were looking for. But were looking we talk about this all the time, this is a stock that the first generation of the iphone was 2007. This is not a mature company. But its a mature market. It is. But the smaller phone, what do you do when you have a younger kid . You dont want to buy a big phone. I think thats genius to get a smaller phone. Remember when they came out with but the differences with the computer this is if i could buy stock in apple hype, then i would do that. Otherwise no, theyre phenomenal. The next phone is going to be bigger. We had the super cycle. Thats innovation . What are you talking about . Of course its innovation. Youre talking about the iphone right now topped out in sales. I missed the last upgrade. Im going to get the next one. The smaller one. Yes. I have four children. I will buy the smaller one for my four kids. One phone each, or one phone . Apples stock is higher by 4 . The s p is supposed to be up from 1810 on february 10th. In terms of my kids, the only thing im giving them is a stern lecture. Thats it. Doesnt cost anything. Except for them to pay attention. Must be great in your house. Too bad, man i aint their friend what happens when you spill paint in the garage. Well, it happens. My mom always said, dont play ball in the house. A tough year for financials. But one trader sees opportunity and one beatendown name in particular. Mike breaking down all the action. Mike . Yeah, so we saw more than two times the average daily activity in goldman sachs. Basically where we saw this activity was the april 1, 65 calls, more than 8,000 traded for about a dollar. These are bullish bets that the stock could rally 10 or more by april expiration. Interestingly, this doesnt capture the Earnings Report with goldman sachs. It will be reported on april 19th. It does capture jpmorgans earnings. That might actually be able to be the bellwether essentially for goldman sachs. The stock itself to me looks pretty cheap here. Probably nine times estimated earnings. But when you take a look at the price chart, well refer to gia for this one, it kind of looks like grim death. Mike looks great. That chart looks awful, but mark looks great. What about the chart . Looks awful. Hes right. What can i tell you. All right. Mike, thank you. Check out the bull show on friday. One of the most influential minds on the street. Hes here with the biggest risks to the market that investors are missing. That is right after this break. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. Welcome back to fast money. A news alert. Mary . Melissa, 38yearold bulgarian man arrested and charged in Manhattan Federal Court in relation to a 400 million market manipulation scheme. He was arrested in his native bulgaria. The u. S. Attorneys office is seeking extradition to the united states. Hes charged with Insider Trading and aggravated identification di theft. All of this in relation to sham offers and market manipulation in three publicly traded companies, including avon group, Rocky Mountain chocolate and tower group. A sham offer was made for avon products, causing a big spike in volume and the company stock. He, of course, was one of the people involved with that sham offering for the company. So again, he has been arrested. He was charged in a civil suit last june. Again, the u. S. Is seeking his extradition to the united states. Back to you, melissa. Thank you, mary thompson. I remember getting that sham proposal release on on the wire. The stock was all over the place. I own the stock. An emerging market consumer story. A stock thats been destroyed on the prospect of whats been going on south of the border, currency weakness. Theyre changing things around. Theres new management. The Balance Sheet is quite healthy. If you look at this chart, and more importantly look at the last two quarters of numbers, theyre showing Free Cash Flow generation. I think the worst is over on this. But im long. Godfathers saga continues, a career that spans have a century. Byron spent a year with morgan stanley. He joins us with an urgent message for investors. Byron, a pleasure to have you on the show. Welcome. Do i have an urgent message . You better. Youre coming here with two major risks to the market. One has to do with the market itself, the other one is political. Lets talk politics first. Whats the biggest rirvg to the market to this point . Donald trump becomes nt of the united states. Why . He has a whole series of policies that i think would be tough on the budget, tough on the supreme court, tough on our Foreign Relations with almost every other country. Would be imposing tariffs on every country we trade with. Maybe hell back off from some of these extreme positions. Hes giving an indication hell do that. But its a very real possibility he will be the republican candidate. And hes proven himself to be a formidable campaigner. And Hillary Clinton has a number of problems of her own. I think hell be very effective against hillary. What happens lets say it becomes more apparent donald trump will be president. How do you how would you change your investments . In terms of the investment in the asset classes, what would you do . Even if you didnt win he didnt win the presidency, we do have a congress that would have to pass almost everything that hes talking about. He could do some things by executive order, but he would really have to go through congress. And i would hope even a Republican Congress would be a fly wheel, would limit the amount of damage he could do. Byron, we always worry about this with every new administration, how come we dont worry about what the epa did to the coal industry and how many jobs they lost there . I think you could make that same comparison if you look at Hillary Clinton. Shes not going to do anything different than president obama. Shes decimated the coal industry. That are a lot of states that care about coal still. That industry is gone now. So he might back off of a little bit of what hes saying, it might be rhetoric. A state is not a country. Donald trump is attacking mexico, hes attacking pretty much all of europe, hes atta attacking the muslim religion. And supporting russia. Yeah, right. And he says he can deal with putin. And hes even not denounced the ku klux klan. This is also a campaign year, too, though, so you have to separate that rhetoric from well, yeah, maybe. You have to separate it, but it is rhetoric, and it does have to be dealt with. Look, im only saying, i start out the year with a negative view of the s p 500 this year. I thought this would be a difficult year. It has been so far a difficult year. I think it will be a down year. And i didnt anticipate Donald Trumps ascendency, but he will contribute to that. You start off the year negative. Are you more negative than when you started off the year and what might have changed . I never thought we would have a recession or a bear market this year. Bear markets are made out of excesses. We dont have the extremes that you find. Theres an investor euphoria. Price earnings ratios as you pointed out earlier on the show are reasonable. You dont have excessive inventories. You dont have the fed tightening. Why negative . Hmm . Why do you start off the year so negative, byron . Because of earnings. You have continuous revisions downward. Companies have very little revenue improvement. They have no pricing power. Wages are going up. Margins are being squeezed. Every earnings estimate is going to be revised downward. There are going to be a few upside of rises but not many. Are you more negative and what is your target for the end of the year . I think the market will be around these levels. It will be down less than 10 . Okay. Byron, it is a pleasure to have you on fast money. Thank you for coming by. Thank you. Byron wien. I dont know what happened to him kidding. Capital spending and productivity, i read the article. Earnings are coming down. You have to ask yourself, whats the right multiple in this environment . I think its closer to 15 than currently 17 1 2. Except yields are negative. You have no other place to earn. It means they trade at a premium, in my view. It makes it a little bit scary. No alternative. Its why weve gone sideways for a year, right . Because both of these things, if you listen to byron, listen to you and i, you could argue that both of us have been correct at some point in time. The markets gone back and forth. I happen to think it spills over. But both of these things are occurring at the same time. Thats what makes this market so difficult to trade. When you look at multiples, if you just trade, know nothing else, trade in a vacuum, look at the multiples, the market has been buying 16, 16 1 2 times, selling 18, 18 1 2 times. Were somewhere in the middle at that point. I would guess that the fair multiple, depending on what you look at, as long as the bottom doesnt fall out, im more worried about what byron is worried about, the earnings. If that happens, youre looking at a number thats 1700 handle on the s p. All right. Coming up on mad money tonight, cramer is going oneonone with the box. Could there be a boom coming in box . Cramers logging in next on mad money. Coming up, weve got the final trade. Stay tuned. Youre an at t Small Business expert . Sure am. My staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. At t can help you stay connected. Am i seeing double . No maam. Our at t buy one get one free makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers. And share promotions on social media . You know it now im seeing dollar signs. You should probably get your eyes checked. Good one babe. Optometry humor. Right now get up to 650 in credits to help you switch to at t. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Time for the final trade. Lets go around the horn. Tim seymour . If youre trading emerging markets, 33 has been an important level going back to august. Trade this thing between 33 and 31. I think youre starting to see a bit of a billback here. 31 is your buy. Then you make new highs. Freeport. Trading at 4, now trading at 9. 50. If youre looking at the commodities space, oil space, how theyve topped out, maybe you should take something off the table there. Rather a seller than a buyer. All right. Mine is going to be buy sell. 70 of the silver supply comes when you mine copper. The buy product. Exactly. You start to produce mines. Silver productions going to go down. Final trade. Josh lipton and byron wien. It will get you done. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow at tomorrowal 5 00. Meantime mad money with jim cramer starts right now. Watch all fingers. \s. My mission is simple, to make you money. Im here to level of playing field. Theres always a bull market somewhere. I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im crepe other. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends, im just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain but to educate and to teach you. So call some at 1800743cnbc. It happened again frantically