This morning, and Aubrey Mcclendon, the former ceo of Chesapeake Energy, was identified by the Oklahoma CityPolice Department as being the victim in this onecar accident that occurred on a country road in hockey hockey city. Here is what paco baldarama had to say about the circumstances surrounding the accident. He pretty much drove straight into the wall. The information and evidence out there at the scene is he went left of center, went through a grassy area right before colliding into the into the embankment. There was plenty of opportunity for him to correct or get back on the roadway and that didnt occur. He went straight into the embankment and collided in it, and ultimately he died from his his injuries, we believe. Reporter he was the only person in the vehicle which burst into flames. Keep in mind, this accident comes one day after Aubrey Mcclendon, the former ceo of Chesapeake Energy was indicted on allegations of rigging gas leases from the years 2007 to 2012 while he was chief executive at Chesapeake Energy. Those charges being brought by the Justice Department. Mr. Mcclendon was due in court midmorning today on those charges. Mcclendon pushed back say, quote, the charge that has been filed today against me is wrong and unprecedented. All my life ive worked to create jobs in oklahoma, grow its economy and provide abundant and Affordable Energy to all americans, so he had also hired a law firm to defend himself. At this point police are not speculating on what the cause of the crash was. They are going to investigate and take a look at the data on the computer in his car. Now, that indictment not only cited mcclendon. It also cited an unnamed second party. Another oil and or gas or energy company. There are unconfirmed reports by bloomberg citing unnamed sources that that other party is sanbridge energy. Cnbc has not confirmed that. Reuters has not confirmed that. Thats an unconfirmed bloomberg report. Sanbridges stock did move down on that report. Melissa, you are up to date. Back to you. Thank you, very much, sue herrera. Lets bring in Dennis Gartman of the gartman letter who joins us on the fast line. Aubrey was a personal friend of yours. What does this mean for you since he was a pioneer in this industry . He truly was a pie another in the great oil and gas industry. Hes greatly responsible for the advances of fracking here in the United States. Hes greatly responsible for natural gas, as important as natural gas has become. Im shocked to hear the news, and although it probably is going to have the greatest effect on prices, it is disturb ing it was the oil and gas industry who change the manner in how we find oil and energy and gas in the United States completely, thats a loss. Mcclendon left chesapeake in 2013 it wasnt an amicable separation to put it politely. He was basically forced out by activists. Yeah. I would bet that he made a lot of enemies along the way, making a lot of friends. Im just wondering what your thoughts are on whether or not it seemed according to a statement that he thought that the Justice Department was sort of gunning for him, that he was the only executive in the statement, he said, to be indicted under the sherman act in 110 years. When i saw the indictment yesterday, i thought it was almost sad and terribly and the only executive to be brought under indictment under those rules and i think they would have stood up to him and would have defended himself adamantly and well. No question about it. Thats a sad time for me and many people in that business. What happens to some of the other companies from this industry in your view, if anything, the likes of sanbridge and sue herera reporting to an unconfirmed report by a bloomberg report that that is the unnamed conspirator in this in this case. What happens to Companies Like that, encana, any other company within the nat gas industry . I would hesitate to to answer that question because one doesnt know. Lawyers would argue with what, but an old room is never just one cockroach. Always a problem. When a problem like this, there tends to be more that follow and lets just lets just take a day to to honor a great guy in the business. Ill let others wiser than i comment what it means for sanbridge and the rest. Dennis, well leave it there. The connection is a little bit shaky and we do appreciate the thoughts on this tragic development on this story but Aubrey Mcclendon, Dennis Gartman of the gartman letter. Were mentioned the reaction to sanbridges price and i hate to bring it up and the reaction in chesapeakes price was undeniable t. Popped on this news. Chesapeake was up yesterday. Its really hard to then get in a conversation about how do you trade the stocks. Yes. Dhes peek was up huge and the space up as well. Steves freeportmcmoran that hes been talking about. Whether its coincidental or not im not sure. This about Aubrey Mcclendon ill say. For years and years we wanted Energy Independence, Energy Independence in this country and there are few people that helped us get to where we are right now, regardless of when you think about him, hes one of them along with t. Boone pickens so its a huge loss i think for the country. Its a huge loss for entrepreneurship. Huge proponent of nat gas as an alternative and appropriate pent of nat gas vehicles. Right. Hasnt quite come as far as what he thought would happen. Yeah. In the space. That takes a huge and t. Boone pickens has talked about this as well. It takes a huge conversion to get the entire vehicle fleet over to natural gas. It seems to me that the first progression would be the transportation sector, your trucks and your buses and that type of thing, but thats probably coming down the line. These are longterm projects. When he started in the fracking business, and this was 10, 20 years ago and we didnt know anything about it, and it created an industry so thats probably, you know, a couple decades away. Yeah. He didnt invent this business, but he was definitely the guy behind the momentum and doesnt matter what you think of him. I couldnt find anyone who had anything bad to say about him, and usually you would find someone with something but people genuinely liked this individual for what its worth and he was the guy behind making us an exporter of energy versus an importer of energy. About Energy Independence, as guy mentioned and a pioneer in the field and somebody along with t. Boone pickens where weve all looked over especially over the last decade or so when were talking about energy and were not talking oil but were looking more towards the natural gas world. Those are the names that always seem to pop up and this is really an unfortunate thing and dennis hit on one thing that resonates with us as well and theres never just one cockroach so whatever is going on here in this investigation will be a very, very interesting process to to be laid out in front of us over the next month and years Going Forward. Does that make you more inclined for you to stay away from the space . And well get into this a little bit later, and it makes you start to wonder, a little bit at least, when we talk about consolidate and we talk about some of the Big Energy Companies going out and looking for acquisitions and does this make them a little bit more hesitant. First of all, look at look at this one in particular has a 40 shortage. This is not dissimilar to when we talked about freeport on this desk. The easy money has already been made. On the short side. On the short side. So you cant go out there and recklessly short a stock thats 3. We Start Talking about freeport at 4. Right. Its doubled. Okay. Still ahead, much more coverage on this breaking story on former chesapeake ceo Aubrey Mcclendon. Well bring you the headlines as they break, and the best performing stock in the s p 500 last year is officially in bear market territory. We will tell you what that is and whether theres any hope for a turnaround, and later short seller citron taking aim at tesla but its the comments that andrew leff says really has the streak talking. Well explain when fast money returns. When we cook together, we rise above our differences. The right amount of garlic reigns supreme, and what separates us is mostly whether were chopping or frying. Food is a language we all speak. When we cook together, we find harmony in the kitchen. We make more than a meal. Enjoy fresh ingredients and healthy recipes, delivered to your door each week. Subscribe today, at hellofresh. Com they are. Do i look smarter . Yeah, a little. Youre making money now, are you investing . Well, ive been doing some research. Let me introduce you to our broker. How much does he charge . I dont know. Okay. Uh, do you get your fees back if youre not happy . dad laughs wow, youre laughing. Thats not the way the world works. Well, the worlds changing. Are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management, at charles schwab. Woman man yes. A newspaper . Woman its quaint. Man did you read about this latest cyber attack . Woman yeah, i read it on my watch. Man funny. Woman they took out the whole network. Man they had to hand out pens and paper. Woman yeah. Man could it happen to us . Woman no. Were okay. Man we are . Woman yeah, we brought in some new guys. Man what do they know that we dont . Woman that you cant run a country with pens and paper. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. No, youre not yogonna watch it tch it we cant let you download on the goooooo youll just have to miss it yeah, youll just have to miss it we cant let you download. Uh, no thanks. I have x1 from xfinity so. Dont fall for directv. Xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. I used to like that song. Welcome back to ffun. A quiet day on the markets but stocks did close right at the highs. Banks and Energy Leading the gains, the xle leading the day higher by more than 2. 5 and grasso, you were saying on the Conference Call you thought oil was the story of the day. Oil remains the story that moves the markets the most. Its a symbol of Global Growth or lack thereof and if you overlook the s p and overlook crude, whether its longer term, last couple of months or an individual day like today youll see that they are in lock step, so i think that Inventory Data fooled a lot of people. They were so mismatched and way off the mark on this. I think you sell a spike like that in crude. Guys got nervous and covered the shorts and thinking they are missing something and i think the bigger trade is still lower in both. The biggest story is financial. It is. Because its day two. And were watching the financials really start to take off. When you look at the leadership thats coming from the financials right now its all the big names and the ones you sort of expect but to see city involved in this as well as much as they are. Bank of america, a little bit easier. Percentagewise its going to move a little bit more and youll get that kind of a kick and the energy story is interesting and the most interesting thing is interesting and that is which energy name moved the most . Conoco phillips . The ones that cut the dividend. I wonder if theres a torque attached to Conoco Phillips the way its up 6 as opposed to everybody else that added another 12 or so. February 16th, so we had said for a long time the ovx will be your tell, right . February 16th trades up to 81 and change and closes at 71 that day, and we said, look, crude closed at 30 bucks down slightly on the day, and we said this might be the turn. Im not suggesting we called it, but we talked about that, and now heres the ovx in the 50s and crude has gone up probably 25 , 30 , right . I hear what steve is saying and the ovx just like it gave you the bottom. I think it will give you the top and in a day when the ovx trades down and reverses closes higher. How much changes . I think a lot. An awful lot. Were offsides, repositioning and thinking the adp number this morning was good. The pmi numbers were in still trending down. I guess people took them as, hey, maybe this is not as bad as we thought and when i look at it, nothing has really changed at all and i think when we come to friday, again, the markets got itself in this condition or this position where whats going to happen, if we have a weak jobs report which i dont expect and we have that and people will say wait a second and the economy is bad again. If its really good then people are going to say, wait a second, maybe now the feds will raise rates and look what happened the last time. I think the market is in a tough spot. If you are buying the market here as opposed to down at 1850 youre trading backwards. If youre looking to jump in on recent numbers, look no further than the dogs of the dow, the stocks that have had the highest yielding dividends and some of the biggest dogs have been broadly outperforming the market so do you speak with him. Paul hickee is here to explain. Paul, so far the dogs are, the dogs have been . I mean, its the ten highest yielding stocks in the s p 500. Two of the best performers so far this year are walmart and procter gamble. I dont think anyone was really looking for walmart to outperform coming into this year so i think what youre looking at here is rather than focusing on the dividends is investors are coming into Higher Quality stocks and Higher Quality stocks tend to pay dividends. Whats been really interesting here and yeartodate from the start of the year to the low in february we saw the highest paying dividend stocks outperform the rest of the market. You expect to see that in a market downturn and since the market bottomed because the best performing group of 50 stocks in the s p 500 is the highest yielders so well see it on the way up and on the way down and on the way up, and when you see that kind of outperformance you better have a good reason why you dont think its going to continue Going Forward so this whole trend of investors moving towards Higher Quality. Show that support is sticking with that group of stocks so at this point the question we put for the is do you stick with the ones that have been work. What does your data indicate in terms of continued outperformance . When you look at the performance of the highest dividend paying stocks, dougs on the dow, even not even including this period, investing in the highest dividend paying stocks, longterm its a good strategy. S p 500 since the dogs. Dow since 2000 have outperformed 11 out of 16 years and outperforming this year and when you see this Going Forward, youre seeing, again, the move towards Higher Quality, and when you see the everyone says that when the when the fed headaches rates youre going to see the dividend payers underperform. Right. But when you look back in history its not nearly as clear cut as that and as long as we dont have a real inflationary environment stick with high quality and dividend paying stocks as Interest Rates return to normalization. Caterpillar was on that list. Sometimes dividend yields are high because a stock price has gone down and that would fall into that category. Any of those ten dogs of the dow, dont get high yields for no reason. They are usually out of favor. Its buying beaten down stocks. Again, one of the stocks that isnt a dog. Dow heading into this year is goldman sachs, one of the worst performers in the dow, and i think if you asked 100 people how goldman was going to do heading into 2016, most people would have said its doing great, so its, again, you focus on its a focus on out of favor by Higher Quality stocks. Stocks in the dow most likely are going to be able to keep their dividends. Theres been some questions of exxon mobil, but as Rex Tillerson said they are committed to the dividend and i think unless oil stays this way, lower for an extended period of time for years, this dividend there is relatively safe. Paul, thanks for stopping by. Which dogs in your view are dogs . Which dogs . This one, first thing that comes to my mind is ibm and now its still down on the year and its had a huge move from 116 to where it is now, 136, with almost a 4 dividend, so is that stack finally do we have clearance by this stock . I say no. I think you sell that name. I think its rallied too much. Which dog is a dog worth buying . Jpmorgan. Okay. I mean, if were going to throw them in the dog category you and i disagree. Im going to completely disagree. I know you are, but with the 3 dividend yield and jamie dimon, still that bottom is still there at 53 where he starts to jump in and now its pushing towards 60 once again and if we see any steepening in the yield curve at all throughout the rest of the year, that will benefit things. I dont like that at all. What i say when i see these when i see these dividend stocks, what it tells me is investors are telling me they think theres going to be deflation and low inflation and that means the yield curve wont steepen even. This is not b. K. We want observing signals from the market. People think there will be deflation out there so sold to you and jamie. Im concerned about that. My concern is about these dividend paying stocks in general even beyond the conversation when they get into pockets where they are historically down themselves. The stock is off completely, hasnt really bounced back, but if you want a dividend and want a solid chart, attila group, philip morris. The charts look great and the yield look great. Still ahead, a big bubble just burst in the market but dont be afraid. One strategist says that very thing could sell big things for stocks. Well explain. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Meantime, here what else is coming up on fast. Gold record rally. Something one group of stocks hasnt done since 1998. What it is and how you can get in on the action, and its the one area of the market that could be signaling stocks are about to make a major move lower. Well tell you what has traders so they are vows when ffun returns. Smart devices are up. Cloud is up. Analytics is up. Seems like everything is up except your budget. Introducing comcast Business Enterprise solutions. With a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. Because you cant build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. Because you cant build we believe in the power ofow active management. Management, by debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Welcome back to fast money. Time for top steroids. The high growth and hoy stakes edition. Kicking it off with amazon, bmo with an outperform rating saying its per performance this year makes it an excellent opportunity to get into the name. The stock is nearing bear market territory. Down 17 from its recent highs. Pete, what do you day . The opportunities are really two things, aws, which has gotten incredible growth in its prime and that seemed to be what resonated most about this letter that was put out is talking about prime, talking about the membership and those that are a part of prime and how much more they spend versus the folks that are nonprime. Because of all those reasons all of it makes sense, right . The one issue that you always are going to have with amazon is how do you get your arms around the valuation levels which it trades right now or has forever, but hes got a 700 price target on it now. Thats extreme relative to where we are right now. Everything winds up. Its just one of these names, mel, where ive had a real hard time other than just being in for a trade through option. Its a very difficult stock to say at 580 and a multiple thats absolute extreme and how do i jump into this name . You could have said that about forever. Forever. And in an environment where cloud names are getting more appreciation, if it says anything about aws doesnt that set that up for some sort of bounce. I think we covered this a little bit earlier with the yield play, and if thats what the market is buying, not buying growth, but protection. The environment. The environment is going to be chaos for them on the way down. But theres huge risks here coming into 2016 talking about holding for a long period of time. Aws will have competition, essentially a commoditized product. Yes, prime is there and a stock thats from 480 up to 500, absolutely no way in this environment that i think you should be out tomorrow buying it. They announced that they are going to spin off in some way aws. What does that do to the stock . I dont think they will. What hurt the stock. They would. Its that valuable this. 580 level down to where they traded right after they reported the. We subsequently broke down, but this was support for a while. Im with these guys here. I think thats nomansland. Netflix, the stock doubling down on its original content saying it will renew fuller house for a Second Season and that announcement comes ahead of a season four debut of house of cards this friday. Guy . Fuller house. The play off of full house. We did a spoof of full house and had a picnic and sat on the ground and handed out sandwiches. Ill say this about this. I was a netflix bull for a long time and then it didnt prove itself. Last quarter disappointed a lot of people. Meandering down around the 15 level. Got to prove itself again and it wont happen until april earnings. Are they playing the music now . Full house. Should we watch that . That didnt look like a kids show that i just saw, the first clip they played. The first one wasnt either. No. That was house of cards. Were on it right now. Im just saying, looks like an odd piece of footage. Thats a clip from the show. I would say what the trade . Want to buy it against 95 bucks, do it. Right now, youre playing, like amazon, no man hes land. Grasso, this environment doesnt favor . Certainly, absolutely doesnt in this environment but if we start to see any kind of a change how long of a time frame, do you think . The way i look at netflix, youre spot on. You have to use a point of reference to say when im out and you gave a 2 downside. 95. If you got in here at 97. Got 95. Start getting a little bit shaken out of this. International expansion has been the story. Continue to be the story. If they can execute on that, this stock is going back over 110. Now to our last highgrowth highstakes stock. Tesla getting hit over the past couple of days. Andrew leff says hes taking a short position in the name. Listen to what he had to say earlier today on the halftime report. Its the news flow surrounding tesla, and in doing what im doing for a living im constantly looking at the information that comes out of the marketplace, and where i underestimated tesla the first time is when the model s was introduced, 9 out of 10 stories were saying how great the cars, how great the cars and the stock just followed. If you look at right now, right now theres more balance. All right. I was listening to this interview today and i was chomping at the bit because of what it sounded to me like he was saying was that he goggled tesla, saw what the news flow was and that in and of itself was enough for him to put on a short position which by the way did not take the stock down as much as other lengthier depth researchers on valeant which raised the stock that day. He has a reputation for doing very indepth and good work. You see this saying the news flow around it. Nine out of ten stories. Its different. It seems to be a different strategy from citron. Doesnt seem to be the hardhitting stuff they have done in the past. That being said, you know, it bounced up close to 200 here. I wouldnt be buying it here. I think in the long run you buy tesla but closer to 120 is where i pick it up. These charts all look similar. Amazon down 14 year to date. You get netflix down 14 year to date and tesla down 21 year to date. The 50day moving average, thats your resistance. Its 195. To buy this stock which i would say do not buy this stock here. It has to close above 195 and the you use that as the exit. Yeartodate chart really here for tesla since it made a decent bott tomorrow and were off of that. A big conspiracy theyreist. What does it mean . Huge conspiracy theorists. Plus let me say this. Yes. You made an interesting point. This is not the typical hardhitting research that they have done in the past. Yes. Maybe thats what they are throwing out in order to put on his short position. Maybe that hardhitting research about tesla is to come. Is to come. Just throwing it out there. Thats the way my mind works. Short interest is 32 , so this thing is prime to push back just a little bit. It is prime that if you get that riskon trade that pete was talking about when he kicked it off earlier on one of these names, you can see a little bit of a run to the upside. I dont think were in that environment. I think the s p will trade down. I think all these m ho mos will trade down and the yield plays will trade up. The concerns about production, i mean, what they are saying is they dont think that the production numbers are going to be what they are promised to be. Weve heard that over an over again. Heard that all the way down. Right. As a matter of fact on the last Earnings Call they they said, look, its going to be 80 to 90,000 and weve got to have cash positive cash flows so this is literal lit management against citron in this particular case. Remember when you and i test drove it. So much fun. In the snow. And then we went to what place. The cheesecake factory. And had cheesecake im sure america is enthralled by this. It may be. I think it may be enthralled for all i know. No. Just saying. One crucial part of the market is having a monster rally this year, but could that moan bad news for stocks . Well explain and much more on the breaking news on former Chesapeake Energy show Aubrey Mcclendon and we his death. Well bring you the headlines. Much more fast after this. Know your Financial Plan wont keep you up at night. Know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. Know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. With the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future youve always wanted. Welcome back to fast money. Let get back to the breaking news story weve been following on former chesapeake argue ceo Aubrey Mcclendon. Cnbcs kate kelly joins us on the fast line with all the details. Quite a bombshell. The news of the indictment broke yesterday. Reporter it really was a shock. I was on the phone midmorning talking about the indictment news and little did i or anyone know that mr. Mcclendon had already passed in this accident that took place shortly half 9 00 in the morning in oklahoma. Obviously we dont know all the details on, you know, whether this was something intentional or not and perhaps well get some clarity in the coming days, but it is a shock. I mean, mcclendon had had a reversal of fortunes for sure and some serious things to his reputation, no doubt about it and had been implicated in private litigation filed by his former employer chesapeake for allegedly stealing trade secrets. That last year. He had raised 15 billion for his new very tour, American Energy partners which, of course, is very impressive and they like everybody has struggled with the price of commodities. I was looking at gas prices and so unbelievable that they are 1. 70, 1. 67 and, of course, crude oil, too. Clearly a rough time in the industry causing him pain as well but his flamboyant personality and willing to take on risks and leverage which is infamous in the industry and beyond obviously it is an alleged illegal activity. We dont know if that would have been proven in court but we conspired to make it a difficult point in time for him. Reporter kate, whats the next step in terms of the investigation and this stock traded as if theres some sort of a cloud lifted off of chesapeake seeing the stock pop 32 immediately on news of his death and then sanridge with the turn lower . Seems slightly irration that chesapeake would rally so hard on this news. They had found a leniency agreement with the Justice Department and perhaps it was sort of word of that that allowed investors to feel a little more comfortable with the stock and mcclendon has been largely uninvolved since he left in 2013 and as for sanridge the issue is there. There may be one of the Unnamed Companies in the injuries for allegedly working with chesapeake and mcclendon to rig some of the land. As well as perhaps ceo tom ward who cofounded with mcclendon you know this space very well and have written a book about it. I wonder what you believe could be the longerterm implications specifically on the nat gas and industry. You know, i mean, i raised this on power lunch with with jim cramer and others. I mean, i think this is a really sad moment for the industry. Mcclendon certainly had a lot of nurse and he fell out with some of the old friends in the business within the last couple of years, but, you know, i think American Drilling still has sort of a family atmosphere in many places, certainly a relatively small town like Oklahoma City. I imagine its a little bit like a midland, you know, sort of not as large or, you know, international as houston, but people really know each other. I got incoming calls after i was on the air from financiers and others involved in oil and gas and just feeling really sad about what this is. In terms of natural gas, you know, everybody is struggling obviously and theres a real question as to when i mean, i think profitability has seized really at this point and who knows when its going to bounce back. Its so plentiful and theres so many uses for it and it gets such better prices and overseas market and notably asia, but its just been fraught with problems. Even cheniere which ive talked about and you guys talk about all the time. They have a huge first mover advantage but, you know, they still, i believe, i dont know the timing of the situation and i believe they are now just getting going or will in the next couple of weeks and obviously had their ceo ousted as well. Kate, thanks so much for phoning in. We appreciate it. Kate kelly who has covered this space extensively. I want to frame the chesapeake move within context, and you raised a good point. We dont want to jump to conclusions, the big pop because the Short Interest has been very high in this stock. When youve had news reading algos and you have people that are frightful on their positions and you have a 40 Short Interest, anything can happen to the stock, anything with any headline. People with perceive it to be something that its not, and they cover their position. They cover their shorts first and they ask questions later. All right. Lets get back to the markets now. Stocks closing at the highs of the day after yesterdays massive rally. Our next guest thinks the good times are just starting started and the socalled negatively bubble has officially burst. Julian emmanuel is with exity strategy and drive tis. Why do you think the equity bubble has burst . A weak First Quarter and accpeted like the Fourth Quarter was going to be weak again and just when china was getting volatile in china and and, you know, essentially people would defensively positioned coming in and saw no real reason to add to positions certainly with the momentum stocks taking a breather and then all of a sudden oil falls off the cliff so you put that all together and you add in the soup of a president ial debate where the noise has just been absolutely horrifying to a lot of people. Talking about how bad the economy is, but then all of a sudden we see that the numbers start to get a little bit better but people are so defensively positioned that youre in a situation now where they are not they are expecting their expectations are very, very muted, so we get a number like the ism yesterday that doesnt show expansion. It just shows a little bit better than what were expecting, and you get an outsized Market Reaction to the upside. Kind of a gold locks sort of number. 2175 is your s p 500 yearend target. Thats right. Whats the path there . Is that a sharp snap in the second half of the year . No. What we think has happened is this turn in february where, you know, assets from the mexican peso to unleaded gas, to obviously Retail Stocks in the s p all turned together. Just saying that that the mentality has changed such that were not going to need to be surprised excessively. Things just need to go a little bit better than they have been and you continue to get a rally like what weve seen the last couple of weeks where the pullbacks are very shallow. Why cant they get worse . They can always get worse. Theres no question. Then its a coin flip whether we go higher or lower . No, because basically where you are is this mode where people have been defensive. If you look at it in terms of how individual investors have been less bullish than at the lows in march of 2009, and that type of sentiment is sort of the contrarian signal that literally every time three, six and 12 mounts down the road markets are higher. You may think that a negativity bubble is popping and, for instance, when you take a look under the covers of yesterdays massive rally, we didnt see as sharp of a selloff as you might think in defensive sectors such as the utilities or consumer staples. What do you need to say because actually even on the surface it seemed like a big powerful rally. You had shallow pullbacks in the defensive sectors and we had low volume as well. Thats right. The volume, we dont necessarily think that youre going to get these big volume spikes. Okay. Because investors have been reluctant to participate so its going to be grudging higher. What you need to get are those defensive sectors to sort of start underperforming is rates to move higher. Weve seen it creep up the last few weeks and we expect that to continue. Crucial to your 2175 is how many rate hikes until the end of the year . Only looking for two. September and december, and were of the mind, if you look at it. We wrote had a note this morning that talked about the fomc, the last minute had 19 references to the word uncertainty. Right. Historic. The fed is not going to go until it feels good and ready to go. Okay. Julian, thank you so much. Julian emanuel of uvs. I think were going to 2029. I think you brought up an interesting point. Gold up today, tlt up today. A lot of crosssignals that weve talked about for a while. I think the rally will end in the s p at 2025 and coincide with the ovx trading either side of 50 which is the top of the oil market in the short term. Thats what i think is happening. We could absolutely see his levels at the back end of this year. Sure. But if we fail at 2025 well make another retest of levels we saw earlier in the year. And if julian is correct about many so of the rate hikes and something you and i debated already today, i think the financials would obviously be a beneficiary of that and that pushes us past that 2025 level and pushes it into the 2100s. Stocks arent the only ones that have seen a bounce in the last couple of years. The highyield market is up 7 from its midfebruary low. B. K. Was warning that the bounce could be the ultimate high yield head fake you need to be careful. Everybodys getting excited. People are shocked that b. K. Is a little bit bearish here and lets take a look at hyg. A huge move and the problems are over, here we go. Heres the high yield yeartodate chart. Look at this massive bounce off the bottom. Here this line here is flat year to date so were a little bit positive year to date, but lets kind of take a little bit of this in a little bit of perspective. This is your fiveyear chart. Youre down 22 from there. You are here. I dont know if i can write it. I cant. You are right here like the malls that you see on the map. Down here in the basement of the mall. Things dont look that great when you look at it this way. Now, lets take a look at the table that i have here to kind of show you that this type of 7 snapback is what we had is not unusual, okay. So we had events june to july and a 6. 5 advance and then we had an 8. 5 decline. That lasted until december 2014. Another 6. 7 increase. Then we had an 11. 2 decline. Last thing we saw was last september. 4 advance and a 12 decline now and here we are with a 7 rally and patterns would suggest that we go lower. Why do i think its going to go lower . One i think oil goes lower. Seen a lot of these Companies Either do secondary offerings or refinance. What are you going to do when you have that cash . Youre going to go out and pump more oil so i think that you get a lower yield, lower, high yield, lower hyg and that could lead stocks lower again. Yeah. What do you think, because, peter, hyg has often been correlated with stocks . And ive trade it had recently and got a little bit lucky in the hyg and to b. K. s point, something you have to be considering along the way. Youve got to consider all of these things. Talk about it every day. I mean, its a combination of china and combination of oil and i dont think theres any one specific thing that anybody should be looking at each and every day and if we encompass all of those different metrix sure gives us a lot of health in terms of what direction were moving right now. Target just wrapping up its Analyst Meeting here in new york city. Well hear right from the ceo about what has him so excited about the growth prospects. The rally that wont quit. Gold son a tear and looks like its not going anywhere but up. Is it too late to get in. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Welcome back to fast money. Check out this move in the gold miners etf, the gdx catching a bid, not to mention the winning trade this year, up a whopping 39 . Too late to get in on this trade. Guy, i would venture you would say no . No. And pete is going to tell you the options market. Im not going to speak for him hand let him talk. No. Ive got it tell you something and you know im right. Gold should have sold off hard the last couple of days and its hanging in there. True. Telling you something. As pete would say. Giddyup. This is going higher. What did pete say. Heres what pete will say is when they started buying this way back in december they were buying the june 15 calls and then they started pushing out and the closer weve got in the last month half or so gone all the way up to the june 22 calls. Doesnt necessarily mean well get to 22 but it certainly means somebody out there has room to the upside and maybe well get a room to the 20s. A little hint on one thing. Final trade will be involved in this world. The problem. Grasso says theres a problem. Gdx outperforms to the upside and the recent lows in gld up 18 . Gdx, up 55 , so if you start to see it roll over and i do think its starting to roll over, you see the headlines in india now taxing gold. Huge, depends on if youre donald trump, buyers of gold. I think thats a negative headline and youll start to see both roll over. I think you actually buy silver and thats the better way to do it. Its underperformed gold and 70 of silver is mined as a part of mining copper and a couple of these other things. You start seeing some of those mines get shut down and production shut in which everybody is expecting. Then youll have a shortage in silver underperform gold. You know why . Because youre a younger man and as Dennis Garret nonwould say ill leave silver up. Gentlemen dont trade silver so maybe thats could be the youngest one here. 32. Nice job. Target just wrapping up its Analyst Meeting moments ago and Ceo Brian Cornell had some interesting comments about the companys transformation plant. Could have big implications for the stock and well hear from the ceo right after this. Sup jj, working hard . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app on the app store. It lets you trade stocks, options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey . Td ameritrade. Its time to take out the check list. Where are we now and more importantly where is this market headed next . Ive got the welcome back to fast money. Target wrapping up its Analyst Meeting. Moments ago cnbcs Courtney Reagan is live in new york city where she sat down with Ceo Brian Cornell for a very rare interview. Hey, security. Hi, melissa, year two of the transformation that Brian Cornell announced at the very meeting last year. A lot of this is similar Going Forward but target emphasized it will use its existing assets and the resources much more smartly Going Forward than it has in the future and i spoke exclusively with Ceo Brian Cornell about his decision to continue to increase Capital Expenditures this year to 1. 8 billion. Heres what he said. Well continue to invest in technology. Well continue to invest in supply chain. Were investing our stores, both remodeling and building new stores and obviously theres ongoing maintenance and repair so those are the really big buckets. Now target expects that its comps are Going Forward annually from 2017 and beyond will increase by 3 . However, the forecast for 2016 comp growth is 1. 5 to 2. 5 and when i asked why the difference he said they are just being prudent in the economic and consumer environment, but the initiatives in place will help to accelerate that growth. There are some skeptics, but that is targets plan right now. Cornell said in fact that he expects Aggressive Growth in the signature categories, remember, style, baby kids and wellness. The company also plans to purchase 3. 5 billion worth of shares this year and that is higher than its longerterm goal of 3 billion because of its current cash position. Melissa. Courtney reagan, thank you. Thought you liked walmart and you have to like target. Its up 11 in the past one month. I think its trading 80 now. Its got to get 85 that we made sometime high and its not ridiculously extensive and thats where walmart trades and to me its got to prove itself now and closing itself means closing above 85 bucks. Coming up next the final trade. Stay tuned. Imagine if the things you bought every day. Earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. With the united mileageplus explorer card, youll get a free checked bag, two united club passes, priority boarding, and 30,000 bonus miles. Everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. The united mileageplus explorer card. Imagine where it will take you. Youre an at t Small Business expert . Sure am. My staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. At t can help you stay connected. Am i seeing double . No maam. Our at t buy one get one free makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers. And share promotions on social media . You know it now im seeing dollar signs. You should probably get your eyes checked. Good one babe. Optometry humor. Right now get up to 650 in credits to help you switch to at t. Time now for the final trade. Pete najarian. First of all that, is an incredible shot right now. Yeah, absolutely. I love that whole thing. Gdx we talked about earlier, abx, giddyup, its going higher. Grasso. I could say philip morris. I could say althea group. Xlu final trade. Thats so sneaky, you got in three potential final trades in one. Yeah, that was. B. K. Ers . For me im going to give you one to go into nonfarm payrolls, uup. Theres a chance that the fed could actually raise rates here and it acts as a nice hedge for your gdx. Guy . Hi there. Hi, there. Thats a good crew tonight. Fun, fun. You like target . Its interesting. What do you call that when hes on one hook and im on the other. He said hes the ying to my yang. Book it . Giddyup. Love this. Im melissa lee. See you back here tomorrow at 5 00 for my mission is simple to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, im cramer welcome to mad money, welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends, im just trying to make money. My job the not just to entertain you but to teach and coach you, tweet me jimcramer. I dont know about you, but it feels better, doesnt it . Is it actually better . Pretty good consolidation following yesterdays big