Stocks may have ended the day flat, but heres what was really interesting today. Banks rallied, gold fell, bonds fell, yields rose, so are we out of the woods and are the bulls back in charge . Guy . I dont know if were out of the woods, but the bulls are back in charge. Great week for the bulls. Today nothing special. The fact that we gave up the gains, not a big deal, but whats been interesting the transports which led us down from november of 2014 are similarly leading us out now. They bottomed out on january 20. You can see where things are right now. Thats a good sign. Bobbed markets selling off, good sign, so theres a lot of constructive things going on. I think it still needs to prove itself right here. Hasnt done it yet, but, you know what . The pulls have it back, i think. You know whats not constructive. Go ahead. As the s p has rallied and so has the dollar rallied and a couple weeks ago people were saying the dollar rally is done and look at the dixie now. Rallied about 3 over the last couple of weeks, and thats a big problem. You saw it in Consumer Staples. That was the one thing that stuck out to me like a sore thumb, so, you know, well talk about oil later. If oil goes up for the wrong reason and the dollar continues to go, some of the stuff is contrarian and if they do have the cuts i dont like the setup. Moving Consumer Staples part of the great riskon move so that were starting to see brewing. In addition to Consumer Staples we had utilities down sharply today. The riskon move is the important topic here, and i think importantly theres a lot of big meetings coming up and the bias is really to the long side and positioning is not structured that way. People are underweight equities right now with a longer bias so you see these traders come in and start to buy these names, getting ahead of some potential positive data. Draghi said at the march 10th meeting were going to see some stimulus so people are getting ahead of that trade. They afraid to be short so youre seeing a lot of Short Covering in sectors that have been riskon trades to look for a downside but its all about positioning. To your point, a lot of riskon events that could be taking place that are taking place. G20 this weekend. Then you have a China National congress. Yeah. Next month, so people when you say positioning, covering shorts, not particularly getting along. What ran, materials, energy, all these risky names that people had shorts in they covered. Yeah, but what ran today though financials were late, and thats why i think this market should be sold. From a fundamental perspective investors are cautious. Let me tell you what i saw this week as far as Economic Data here in the u. S. You saw the inflation data, thats good news, right. Saw Wage Inflation last month and now we see this Price Inflation had a little bit. That makes the feds job that much harder, i think. When you think about all the volatility thats been caused in the markets over the last couple of months, it has been become of the fed rate increase back in december and then the uncertainty. How does it make their job harder though . Because if they dont give a good message, especially when we saw that bad number from the Services Number this week, too. Theres no way they can raise. You and i probably agree on this and tell me if im wrong, no way they with raise. They are going to invert the ucurve sooner than ever and they will be wearing the recision right now. Whatever they do, they cannot raise rates, period. If its inevitable were going into a recession the markets will go lower. The markets are going to go lower. And weve seen it in anticipation . No, no. The markets will go lower, and i think that it depends on how forward looking the market, is but i think the market cant even see whats going out. Usually six to eight months ahead but i do believe Global Growth or lack thereof is telling us something so i think the market will sell off. Look, we can all pontificate whether or not theres going to be a move in rate, not a move in rates. Bottom line from the shortterm positioning, and we talk about it all the time, Consumer Staples, look at the discretionary names, got crushed, especially consumer names. Got crushed so much and purged all the inventories and took guidance down aggressively and people felt safe and you saw that risk on in that sector. Central banks will absolutely take more missteps. Without question thats going to happen, but i dont think going to happen now for a while, and in the meantime, listen, im sort of in dans camp, been in dans camp, but i also understand that the markets can go up for a lot longer than people think. Right. Dan would agree with that as well. When i say higher than this, we hold 1950 which we seemingly are doing now in the s p and sets us up to a move towards 20, 25 and then you reevaluate. Does it mean im bullish in the shorts . Yeah. Does it mean i agree with dan is saying in the aggregate . Absolutely, yes. Speaking of the key 1950 level, is it time to hit the sell button and steve grasso is making his way and trying to stay alive. Guy just spoke about the 1950 level so why dont we look at it in a bigger spectrum right here. So this is the your recent high right here. If you draw your lines all the way down, okay, to your recent low of 1810 you come back and everyone knows i like following the fibernace retracement highs and look from the low to the high and come up with a 50 and a 618 retracement. 1964 is your exact level so close enough, 1950, but this is the level the market needs to hold. We touched it today. Couldnt hold it, couldnt break through. So what i said, the lateterm things are buying financials now because now that sucks the retail population into buying stocks thinking its all clear. Its the worst time to buy right now. The maximum we can rally is to 2,000. This is your sell zone. 1964, up to 2,000. Not your buy zone. Be lightning up on positions right here. Basically the risk reward to the upside is celil at 1950. Correct. The same way when it sells off you want to be buying a bounce at the 50 and the 618, reverse it. Right now you want to be selling and this is where it suction the most amount of people and the market sets up to hurt the moment amount of people at any point in time. When you say youre bullish, and you can go market, does that mean its a good time to buy because these two can coexist actual. I if youre a trade an looking at things the way i look at im looking at it from the standpoint of underpositioned traders that want to look for a move higher given possible data over the next few weeks. Okay. I think 2000, we get to 2000, well glide through, and that is a sell signal, i agree, for most people. I think the technicals and the s p 500 look horrible, and when you think about it, we made the high last may and had a bout of volatility and had this w. Bott tomorrow from august and search the and never made a new high. Still in a downtrend and then had this recent w bottom and one in january and one in february. And when we go down below theres an air pocket. If we test that level for a third time, that would be at a twoyear lee and i think you probably have a move back towards 1600 in a very quick manner, and you can talk about positioning and this and ma and people will panic on the third time down that. Just that simple. When i asked the question are the bulls back in charge and you said yes, guy. What do you do . The banks, not that they should rally, but the banks will rally because people will say heres a group that got beat up and will play catchup in that space. I think theres a chance to fade the banks. I come down where dan comes down. We just look at the world a little bit differently. I think the next 75 points or so is to the upside and theres no denying that the bounce off 1810 in the s p was remarkable, and this week the bounce off of 1890 was equally outstanding. Up next, a rare and exclusive interview with the top opec oil minister. You will not believe how high he sees oil going by the end of this year. Plus, in honor of the oscars we are giving you four oscar worthy stock picks that will have your portfolio thanking your mom, your agent, your High School Drama teacher, everyone else you ever met in your life. And later one classic market theory is pointing to more pain ahead. What that is and how much you can protect yourself. Much more fast money after this. With gloom and doom gripping the word fast goes in search of the wall street most bullish voices in hopes of slaying the bear and hopes of finding you the winning trade. Thats all next woke on fast money. Juice whats Warren Buffett spending on now . How about three full hours live on squawk box telling you what on squawk box telling you what hes telling berkshire man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back to fast money. Oil continues to drive stocks. Earlier today in a rare and exclusive interview i spoke with former opec president who now serves as nigerias oil minister. I began by asking him if he believes in opec production freeze and can in fact be achieved. Heres what he said. When attempts at production freeze were working the issue, the minister for energy in qatar who took it from me is leading that pack. Theres a lot of conversation going, and i think theres a lot of consensus on the issue of freeze in saudi arabia and russia and what is now time to get everybody aligned on the freeze and chances are very high. Where do you spend and see oil going by the end of the year . Im certainly hoping for prices in the range of 45, 50, thats what im putting my fingers on. Is there a scientific basis for that, probably not. Theres a lot of optimism and im hoping consensus can be built and not just opec members but not opec members which is what the gulf states and most of us have pushed for. Minister of nigeria must be under tremendous pressure to try to do what it can in its power to raise the price of oil and nigeria relies on oil for more than 90 of its Foreign Exchange earnings and its considering the world bank to help plug a hole in this years budget. Im wondering if you feel frustration with being a member of opec. In fact, a former oil minister has questioned why nigeria will continue membership with opec. He said and hes quoted as saying nigeria with zero excess capacity is a mere onlooker at the mercy of the two Biggest Oil Producers in the world, the United States as well as saudi arabia. How do you feel about being a member of opec when its really the bigger oil producer, saudi arabia, seemingly calling all the shots . The membership should rate rights now are noting negotiable. If you leave opec were not the big swing producers and youve got to be a member of of a team. Historically its done well for us. I think everybody means well, but from the point of view of nigerias interests, yes, low price of oil is not good for us. We need to do were looking to have a reasonable moderate prices in oil in order to be able to fund our budgets and have a very versatile development for the nigerian citizens. Low oil hurts us and we need to look at development and discipline and cost and costs on very tight monetary policies and management of what is available. Okay. So we had a lot of rhetoric this week from the conference in houston, and so we heard a saudi minister naimi saying essenti essentially hell let oil go down to 20 and iran in the past has said an oil freeze is a joke and he said i just came with a visit with the saudis and they are at forefront of pushing this freeze forward. Freeze doesnt help. Production cuts have to be there. Isnt that a he says a freeze is a first step to a cut. First of all, whatever they say they are not going to do. It helps him. Of course it helps him, the ultimate of talking your own book. Higher oil helps him, but the problem is it wont move higher because you have too much of a glut on the market. Iran will not stop pumping. Irans the problem. Its not him. Yeah. Its not the other members. Its iran thats just getting back online that needs to take market share back. They are the problem. Total lip service. No way theres going to be a freeze or any coordination whatsoever so youre telling me saudi arabia will pump 10,000 barrels a day 10 Million Barrels a day and youll have iran limited to 500,000 barrels a day . Its insane to think that they are going to be limited. They are not and they will keep pumping, and that will completely drive this i think oil to 20 bucks. We talk about geopolitical risk and associate that with prices of things going higher. I would submit the reason oil is going lower until recently is because of geopolitical risk. If the saudis wanted the price higher im telling you it would be higher. They dont want it higher. They want it lower than it is now because it hurts their enemies, and if it hurts us in the meantime thats just an ancillary benefit. Or they think its not going higher and they would rather just reap these benefits of these prices because they think its going to 15. Could be. And thats more the case. They can withstand a lower price longer than anybody out there. They lose the battle and win the war. Meantime, is there anything investable in energy . Sure. A lot of people have been calling the bottom the whole way down and to me it goes back to what we said in the last block. New see the dollar coming back up, oil is going back down but the bigger implication is you have countries like russia and brazil that are basically bankrupt and the longer this goes on, talk in 2016 about freeze or cut and nothing happens, oil is going to go lower and the dollar is going higher and especially if the fed is off you know, what about all the trades that exist around it that are positioning to get long, like the banks and financials. Havent seen any big defaults and bruptsies and nobody is dipping their toe in the water yet until we see that. Go talk to bankers and go talk to lawyers. Its happening in the background. The worst is yet to come. Definitely is. Youve got like you said the m a cant take place right now. That doesnt mean oil stocks have already gone 50 cant go higher. You have to anticipate, bay xle or exxon mobil or get a yield out of it. Buy now. Dip a toe in, dont buy a full position in anything right now but if youre going to buy you have to go with a big name like that already up on the year. Who says dipping a toe is a good idea . Do you . No. Not from the short side. Exxon mobil at 81 is 22 times forward earnings, an expensive stock in this environment. The answer is no. Still ahead the showdown with the government has created a very unique situation at apple and can hold the key to a winwin trade. Well explain. Im melissa lee and youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Here what else is coming up on fast. Want to see Something Else scary. Check out the socalled safety stocks because they are doing something very strange and it could signal a major shift in the market. Plus. They cant deny the fact that you like me. Thats because fast moneys going to the red carpet in search of oscar worthy trades for your portfolio, and the names might just surprise you. Thats when fast money returns. If you have medicare parts a and b and want more coverage, guess what . You could apply for a Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan whenever you want. No enrollment window. No waiting to apply. That means now may be a great time to shop for an aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Medicare doesnt cover everything. And like all standardized Medicare SupplementInsurance Plans, these help cover some of what medicare doesnt pay. So dont wait. Call now to request your free decision guide. It could help you find the aarp Medicare Supplement plan that works for you. These types of plans have no networks, so you get to choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. Rates are competitive, and theyre the only plans of their kind endorsed by aarp. Remember these plans let you apply all year round. So call today. Because nows the perfect time to learn more. Go long. The democratic primary battle moves to south carolina. Brian williams, Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews with complete live coverage tomorrow beginning at 6 00 on msnbc. Welcome back to fast money. Hollywood getting ready for its biggest night of the year and, no, its not the repeats of fast money. Its the oscars. Cnbcs always glamorous Julia Boorstin is on the red carpet and joins us with a look at studios race for gold. Julia . Reporter well, melissa, the studio with the most nominations is knocks. It has 26 nominations going into sunday negotiate. Thats a dozen more than disney which is in second place. Now, foxs four best picture nominations range from big dark budget cloud pleaser the martian to brooklyn which snapped up at 9 million at sundance last year. So far this yore fox is also dominating at the Box Office Thanks to the surprise blowout success of dead pool which is a lower budget rrated marvel film which is distributing. Viacoms paramount drew just six Oscar Nominations and is lagging at the box office. It was last among all the major studios last year with just 6 of Box Office Market share. One reason that viacom just put it on the block. Its in talks with some strategic investors. Theatrical success and oscar claim dont always line up. Universal which is also owned by comcast, cnbcs parent company, dominated the Box Office Last year with 21 of u. S. Market share but this year at the oscars it has only four nominations, but oscar wins can actually drive box office success. A new study by ibis world estimates best picture winners estimate 10 million in additional box Office Following their victory while nominated films that didnt win, they average an extra 4 million afternoon the awards show. Now the smaller a films Box Office Going into the awards show, the bigger the potential impact of all this attention of all the red carpet and the awards. Melissa, back to you. Julia, thank you. Well, in the spirit of the oscars we here asked the traders to give you some oscar worthy stock picks and these are their favorite stocks. Lets go around the horn. Grasso works are you giving the oscar to . Alshire group, 3. 6 yield. Today the stock was off and you had a riskon day and stock going back toto09 its straight up so i would think that in a good market, bad market youre still hunting for yield and you find it in attila. Steve . Aleksion is my pick. Look, this is a company thats really weve seen the decks cleared since they reported earnings, and i lock at the stock and say they got to trigger a near term turn coming up in june for one of the products which will have good data and aleksion, 140 bucks, most of the derisking has occurred and struggling in biotech and long term this is a name you want. Down 26 and running into headwinds that are just ratcheting up. Been in a scenario where the entire sector for the most part has discounted a lot of it, a lot of it, and i do believe a lot of it. Its 140 from a valuation, growing earnings at 20 . This is a name you want to own. Dan . Seems really passionate about that. I dont even know what that is. Mine has nothing to do with the oscars but really interesting, paypal. A company that obviously you like me. Spun out last year and whats interesting to me is heres a company thats extent pected to have midteens earnings and sales growth and trading the same multiple as visa and mastercard that have much less expected growth so to me you have a company that has very interesting positioning and what i think is a very strong Secular Movement in epayments, also have the peer to peer payments thing and to me paypal is really interesting in the mid30s. Its had a good week and to me you pick it up mid30s. Marisa tomei, you didnt think she was going to win. Good segue. Emerson electric, how many times do we go to that. You like me. I like you, too. And with that stuff going on between United Technology and uteck and honeywell, look for companies that could be in the crosshairs, very interesting company. 32 billion market cap and could fit very nicely. Quick program note. The oracle of omaha Warren Buffett will spend three hours with squawk boxs becky quick 6 00 to 9 00 eastern time and tweet use the askwarren. Dont want to miss. This time now for the final trade. Around the horn. Grasso had. Why make it complicated, attila group, mo, final trade siebert . Ive been bullish on nike and turning the tables a little bit. Foot locker is a real tellin to whats going to happen with the highend sneaker market. Dan in. Iwm, small caps run too far too fast. Big oa coming up. Mationys big week, terry lundgren, did you hear him . Talked about that cold weather. Hes crazy. That does it for us. See you back here on monday with more fast. Stay with us. Options action begins right after this break. Tomorrow starts today. York state all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. And in syracuse, where imagination is in production. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov no, youre not yogonna watch it tch it we cant let you download on the goooooo youll just have to miss it yeah, youll just have to miss it we cant let you download. Uh, no thanks. I have x1 from xfinity so. Dont fall for directv. Xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. I used to like that song. Didnt you get the memo . Its all good or maybe now. Live other at the nasdaq marketplace. Guys are getting ready behind me. While they are doing that, heres whats coming up. Thats what stocks did this week, but a classic indicator says the rally may soon end. Well tell you what it is and how you can protect yourself. Plus and were going to have a big, big, big a lot of fun. We sure are, donald, because we have a way to make money in apple if harris go up, down or nowhere at all and well