michelle. >> here's what we know about investigation in boston right now. video shows someone setting down a bag. authorities have said, quote, they have solid leads, but no arrest has been made yet. the boston federal courthouse has been evacuated due to an unrelated bomb scare. expecting a joint news conference from boston at 5:00 p.m. you'll see it live here on cnbc, to bring you the very latest. >> in the meantime, as law enforcement officials get set for that news conference at the top of the hour, amid premature reports that an arrest had been made in the marathon bombing, scott cohn is in boston with the very latest details for us. scott? >> good afternoon, bill. let's first get you up to date on the situation at the federal courthouse, which is about two miles from here. as you said, there was a bomb threat an hour or so ago, unrelated to the situation at the bottom marathon and the attacks there. our producer on the scene says that he has seen fire trucks enter the area, firefighters go into the building, agents with dogs go into the building, but notably, no bomb squad going into the building. obviously, the vast majority of bomb threats phoned in anywhere turn out to be false and we'll hope that that is the case. and here's how the day sort of plaid out. early in the morning, or i should say, with around mid-morning, on boyle boylston street, we saw quite a bit of activity, agents combing the area. perhaps they're combing it one last time for clues before they reopen, but we don't know that. we just know that there was activity from the ground to the rooftops as they were trying to gather more evidence. we do know that the evidence thus far, the search, has been fruitful. authorities released pictures of, more pictures of praguemefr of the bomb, including pieces of the pressure cooker it's believed to encase it, pieces of the bag it's believed to have been contained in, even pieces of the shrapnel, which included bbs and small nails that were put in those pressure kroorcooko inflict maximum damages. this afternoon, there was an erroneous report that someone was about to be arrested or somebody was in custody. and the fbi soundly knocking that down and urging the media and public to heed news only from official sources. we can say that based on video evidence that we're hearing from authorities, about people putting bags down at the site of the finish line and various other things, that they have what they call solid leads. but we'll repeat, again and again this afternoon, somebody placing a bag down at the scene doesn't mean that's the bomber. but if you're looking for the bomber, that means it's someone you want to talk to. >> scott cohn in boston, thanks. we're waiting for that news conference. law enforcement officials out of boston coming up in a little bit. we're just moments away from american express first quarter earnings. first, let's talk about today's market action. michael yoshikami from destination wealth management, david sowerby, and bruce mccain from key private bank. michael yoshikami, what do you make of the tremendous or at least the pickup in volatility this week? >> it's crazy, i'll tell you. well, it's obviously highlighted by the horrible events going on in boston, but we're actually moving into, right now, earnings season, bill. the market has been really advancing on the assumption earnings season would probably be okay. that's why we're up so much. but all of a sudden now we have bank of america blow up in our face, and we're thinking, what's exactly happening with earnings at this point? so i think people are going to be watching very, very closely, the earnings numbers and i think the american express numbers going to be very telling. >> david sowerby, is that your assessment as well? >> i think the market's due. it's due for that normal once a year, 5 to 10% sell-off. we've seen the s&p 500 up 17% from the november lows, small-cap stocks up 21% from those lows without any real meaningful set back. stocks are great for the long-term, but in this environment, where sentiment, we've got unusually bearish quickly. we've got more weakness in store. >> so you would wait. this isn't necessarily an entry point for you, yet? >> no, if i had cash on the sidelines, pretty much at the close of today, the average stock in the s&p 500 was off about 7% from its 52-week high. the average technology stock, 11% from its 52-week high, if we get another 3% to 5% down in stocks, then i think that cash on the sidelines should be absolutely put to work, because the next two or three years still bodes quite well for the stock market relative to most other asset classes. >> i may have to break in momentarily when those american express earnings come out. but first, jerry webben, let me ask you, the fear has been this week with news out of china, some of the economic data that we've gotten here, that maybe the global growth rate is slowing down. do you sense that at all? >> i think, yes, both in the u.s. and in china, we've seen some slowness in the emerging markets and europe remains extremely weak, but you've got to look at those growth areas in the u.s. with, that include auto sales remain strong, housing sector remains strong, personal consumption is not great, but it's okay, employment is better. >> all right, guys, let me break in. here we go. so they were expecting on american express $1.12, they got $1.15. so a beat, apparently, by 3 cents. the research, they expected $8.03 billion, they got $7.88 billion, sounds like a miss here, david sowerby. >> that will be the number, bill, it was not so much whether american express would meet or beat the earnings per share estimate, but they would likely beat on cost control, but the revenue number would be essential and we knew the first quarter was going to be weaker on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the first quarter, but 7.8 versus more of the bears at 8.0 or slightly lower, we're going to have really watch the earnings call and what kind of guidance they give, especially on revenue and spend. >> this is a story we've been worrying about through this whole cycle, that we've got cost cutting, but revenues have just not caught up. up until today, about 50% of companies have beat on the revenue side, so you can be hopeful, but obviously this is a disappointment. the financial sector, it hasn't as leveraged as it once was, it isn't going to produce by the large the earnings that it once did. >> one of the problems of bank of america, and i recognize that american express is a different animal, but in the same busy. historically, they're plagued by these historically low interest rates. it's tough to make money, michael yoshikami, when you're in that economy and markets are that low. >> it's impossible to make money on the margin. and i think it's important to recognize that what american express is probably getting hit on here is what's happening with tax rates, happened in the first quarter of this year, and the other issue that's really occurring is i think businesses are still holding back on spending. significant percentage of their revenue comes from businesses. and you know, on the long-term, also, we have to be very, very aware, american express, on the long-term, is going to -- >> they're having a fire drill here at the new york stock exchange. >> it was scheduled. >> pre-scheduled, exactly. it was scheduled already. so ignore the noise here happening around me. >> okay. >> very quickly, i want to get to bruce mccain as well, michael. finish your thought. >> my thought was, you have to be careful about companies like paypal, all these other very inexpensive swaywaways to colle money, it will be a hit on american express margins, eventually. >> bruce mccain, do you want to buy on these dips we've been seeing, or is it time to start taking money off the table at these levels? >> i think you need to wait a little bit. part of it is, there's still excessively positive sentiment and we're just in the early stages of washing some of that out of the markets, but there's no sign of recession either here nor most of the overseas markets, so it's an opportunity to laook at things that have ben washed out, once they finally bottom out in taking some positions for the longer term, absolutely. particularly in some of the overseas markets that have been hit more heavily than we have. >> right. >> i've got to dispute this sentiment notion a little bit. >> very quickly. >> sentiment is high, but it's not out of line, especially among retail investors. i think there's still dry powder. i don't think we're done with this yet. >> skepticism. especially after last week's number. >> you're not a day trader, don't day trade. >> good advice. thank you, guys. talk to you later. >> so american express missed on the top line, but beat on the bottom line. >> but the stock is not reacting all that much. >> no. yeah, so we'll have to watch it here in after-hours. we're also now waiting, ebay earnings, moments away. stay right here for instant analysis, just like we did with american express. >> then we'll talk to the gentleman of the big banks hired to research market trends for them. coming up, he sees three big sell signals that you cannot afford to miss. and later, possible new developments in boston as the fbi gears up for a briefing on its investigation into the deadly marathon bombings. we're going to go live to that event, top of the 5:00, stick with us. [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ welcome back. waiting for ebay's earnings, should be out any moment. jon fortt runs through the numbers that wall street is obviously anxiously awaiting. jon? >> bill, wall street would like revenue of $3.77 billion, about 62 cents in eps, and guidance, $3.95 billion in revenue, 66 cents in eps, although some analysts, these reports i've been looking at, point out 3.95 would be high seasonally, and 3.91, 92 might be a little bit more in line with what ebay would do. total payment volume on paypal is going to be an important metric, about 19% growth would be nice to around $40.2 billion. those are some of the key numbers to watch for when the release comes out, bill? >> jon, thanks very much. certainly, ebay stock has rew d rewarded investors in the past, despite the financial crisis, the dot-com movement bust, in the last two years, that stock has risen 2 1/2 times faster than the s&p 500. i know what you're going to ask, michelle, what kind of play is ebay right now, right? >> exactly. joining us right now is r.j. honavoi of morning star. what do you think the metrics are here? >> there's really three things to be looking for in the numbers. one is marketplace merchandise volumes. i think that's an important metric, because the company has been investing a lot of innovation on its core ebay platform, the marketplaces, and whether weapon continue to see growth. the second would be paypal margins, whether they can keep up with new competitors coming in, potentially a network access feed fee coming from mastercard later this summer. and how much traction they're gaining on the mobile side of the business, both the transactions and payments. i think that's the key cornerstone of the investment store hire and really something to keep an eye on. >> seen the market move all of a sudden, it's down 3% all of a sudden. the last couple of times we've had the ceo of ebay on, we've talked extensively about their attempt to migrate to mobile. how do you tell when you're making that migration successfully? >> the company reports on both merchandise volume numbers for its mobile business, as well as payment mobile, or payment volumes as well. i think as we continue to see acceleration on both those metrics, companies looking for $20 billion in both merchandise volumes as well as payment volumes from mobile devices this year. if we were to see an uptick in the guidance there or any commentary about increased momentum, that would get the market very excited. >> the stock is also moving here, as if we've got the numbers, but i don't have them yet, so we'll wait and see what they look like. >> let's bring in ron josey of jmp securities. what's one of the most important metrics you're watching when we finally do get the numbers? is it going to be the mobile processing payments, the market place payments, the margins when it comes to paypal? ron? >> oh, hi, yes. sorry. >> your turn. >> there's a few things that we'll be looking for. primarily, we're looking for domestic gmv growth. >> what does that mean? >> domestic gmv is the amount of commerce that went through their platform during 1q. as we know, it's been a little bit rocky in terms of a macro perspective on retail. so we're looking for that specific metric to talk about overall demand, and how well it's going in terms of their differentiated partnership with retailers and focus on merchandising. >> well, apparently we've got the numbers. nobody's telling me, but you can see it on the graphic there, 63 cents. they were looking for 62 cents. anybody have a volume number? we were lacking for $3.77 billion. i don't know if jon fortt is still there. okay, $3.75 billion. so a little on the light side there as well. and that's been something we've seen at lately from any particular company. the revenue, the top line has been coming in on the light side, hasn't it, ron? >> 63 cents ton bottom line is actually a penny beat from their guidance, and $3.75 is at the high end of their guidance. it's a little bit below what we were expecting, but i think it gets into what we were just talking about, in terms of potentially some of the retail issues we saw in 1q. and that's something that we'll be looking at as we get the volume number. >> r.j., the reaction in the stock appears to be negative, although it appears to be coming off the lows, but still down nearly 2%. would you react that way? r.j.? >> right now, might be a little bit of profit taking. the stocks had a nice run since analyst day last month. maybe people taking a little break, but i think the long-term story is fully in tact based on those numbers. >> jon fortt is off the phone talking to his sources there. what are you hearing, jon? what do these numbers look like on ebay? >> well, i think a key number here, bill, is guidance. as i mentioned, wall street was looking for $3.95 billion in revenue for this current quarter. it looks like ebay's got between $3.8 and $3.9. the midpoint, $3.85. that's even a little bit light of where some of the perhaps more realistic or even pessimistic people were aiming. ebay does tend to be conservative in its guidance, but i think that's low enough there might be some questions about exactly why they're guiding as conservatively as that sequentially. >> any word on mobile and how it looks? >> i don't have the release, i don't have the release in hand yet, but as soon as i have that, i'll dig through it for you. >> and to be clear, jon, you don't have any insight into why, yet, they would be guiding lower on the current quarter at this point? we're still waiting for that? >> i don't, but that is, not only below the number the street was looking for, $3.95, it's quite a bit, $100 million, below that, but it's even below the number that would have been seasonal based on what they hit in the current quarter. >> r.j., what about that? is there a seasonality to this? would you be surprised that they're guiding cautiously to the next quarter? >> no, it doesn't surprise me. the real key is what the full-year guidance is. if there were any changes to that number, i think they were looking for between $16 and $16.5 billion. if there were any changes to that, and i don't suspect there would be, that would give me a little bit more concern about second quarter numbers. but honestly, i think there's probably just some seasonality. and as you pointed out, the company does have a track record of being pretty conservative with its guidance. >> thank you both. down 3% right now in after-hours trading on ebay. thank you both for joining us. michelle? >> we've got to get to sue herrera. she has more breaking news from boston. sue? >> thank you very much, michelle. and we told you earlier that the federal courthouse in boston had been evacuated because of a bomb threat. they have now cleared that. they swept the building, they've given the all-clear. they are allowing people back into the building. a federal official telling nbc's pete williams that that bomb threat was unrelated to the terror incident in boston last week, but, nonetheless, out of an abundance of caution, they did evacuate that building. they've swept it. it has now been given the all-clear and people going back in. this ahead of a 5:00 p.m. news conference. you will hear and that see that live here on cnbc. back to you guys. >> sue, thank you very much. >> another feature of today's trade, we mentioned earlier, apple getting slammed, trading below $400 for the first time since late 2011. kate kelly has details on some of the hedge funds, investors getting hit on that. kate? >> thanks so much, bill. apple was off 5.5% after the end of the day and broke through the floor at midday, to the dismay of some of its biggest investors. one of the people that's large in apple in the hedge fund community is david einhorn, the green light capital fund manager, who held $1.3 million shares as of february 7th. a little rough math suggests that einhorn has lost $85 million since then, about $30 million of which happened today alone. einhorn isn't the only hedge getting bruised by apple either, just to borrow a turn of phrase from his own first quarter investor letter. filings suggest that while a number of hedge funds sold apple during its end of year spiral, some, including apple's management and glg partners used the dip to buy bigger stakes or stakes that they hadn't even had before. einhorn also used that decline to repurchase some shares he had in the third quarter, and overall, apple is still the top equity holding of the largest 50 hedge funds, at least as of end of year. ahead of apple's earnings report next wednesday, investors seemed to have turned overly bearish on the stock in the view of some money managers and the upside surprise, either on the quarterly earnings themselves or on the notion of balance sheet management, sort of engineering the cash on the balance sheet a little bit better, or pro investor, could move the needle back up. einhorn, for one, has spent recent months urging apple management to do more with that $137 billion in spare cash to return capital to shareholders, and any move on tim cook part's to do that, bill and michelle, i think, would no doubt be very welcomed, at least by the shareholder community. >> you would think so. kate kelly, thanks very much. >> thank you. >> so three strikes and you're out, out of the market, that is. when we come back, what may be the three market numbers you need to watch that signal that it's time to sell. >> and later, of course, all eyes on boston. the fbi will be delivering its latest findings on the devastating marathon bombings. keep it right here for the very latest developments. we'll be back in a moment. man: how did i get here? 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>> hey, there, bill. some notable losers in today's session. let's start with apple making a new 52-week low, slipping at one point below 400 bucks. analysts saying one catalyst for today's sell-off, that weak revenue forecast from apple's supplier, sirius cirrus logic. and bank of america also in the red. worst day for that dow component this year. posting profits and revenue that disappointed the street. and we were watching copper today, the red metal settling at the lowest level from 2011. freeport mcmoran down hard. fairway, priced at 13, above the range, open at 18 on the nasdaq, ticker fwm, surging some 33% in today's session. american express, the global financial services firm reported after the bell, beat on the bottom line, missed on revenue stock following in the after-hours. also reporting, ebay, the world's biggest online market place. first quarter revenue just missed, beat on the bottom line. the issue for investor, revenue guidance. bill, back to you. >> all right, josh, thank you very much. take a good look at this number. 14,545 on the dow. because our next guest says the party's over, if the dow closes at that level or lower, and he's not just talking short-term, either. >> joining us now on the set is the man making that call. he's charles nunner. good to have you here. >> nice to be back. >> so there's been two sell-offs this week. you say right now, the buy signal is still on, because the market hasn't hit these certain levels. did i characterize that correctly? zble >> let's make it clear. i was here in february/march 2009, and went totally long. i went out of the market in, and says we're going to do a top formation, but it could take until the end of april. so it would be a little early to sell-off. >> so for the dow, 14,545, for the s&p futures, you want to see 1,544 to get your sale signal, and for the nasdaq 100 futures, you would want to see 2,751. how do you get to those numbers? >> i developed a system which says things don't move at random, something happens on a certain day, a certain week, on a certain level. >> so why are you differentiating the future? >> as you know, i did this 50 years for goldman sachs, mostly looking at the futures. also at the cash, we do it with stocks and interest rates, gold, silver, whatever we do. >> we wanted to highlight the difference, because there is a significant difference between the nasdaq futures and the actual cash. so i think a lot of our viewers focus exclusively on the cash. do you have a number on those? >> i only work with the futures. the dow is a cash number. >> mm-hmm. so how long before you think we might -- when would we know the answer to this question? how much time do you give it? >> like i said, it's going to take the month of april, and don't expect a major sell-off until may. >> but then what happens? how much -- what happens after that, if we hit these numbers then? >> well, then we'll have a correction. and based on the momentum of the correction, we can say that the bull movement of 2009 is over or give it one more try. it's just we're in very dangerous territory and, again, people don't realize what can happen. >> well, are you talking about a 10% correction, talking about a 20% bear market, talking about a 50% retracement? what do you think could happen? >> well, as you maybe remember, i was on with maria years ago and i said, we're going to 5,000 and we're going to be there in 2020, so it's going to take a couple of years. it just means that over here, the chances you're going to make a lot of money are very small. >> mr. nenner, thanks so much for joining us. we really appreciate it. >> okay. we want to get more news out of washington right now. some breaking news with john harwood. john, what do you have? >> bill, on this day where so much has been going on, relative to the boston investigation, to the ricin letters, to all sorts of other things, we have had some legislative action of significance in the senate. the senate just voted down, by 54-46, which means that it was six votes short of the 60 needed, the background check compromise that had been negotiated by joe manchin, the democrat from west virginia, by pat toomey, the republican from the state of pennsylvania, that was seen as the most significant element of gun legislation that is still moving in the senate, still likely to have something passed, but that was the keystone provision, at this moment, and it's gone down now. advocates from the white house to the senate democratic leadership say, we're not done yet. we may bring it back later. i frankly, don't see, bill, though, given how this moment, with all the pressure from newtown families, gabby giffords here, working, so fresh after some horrific events, i don't see how the chances get better as we go deeper into the congress, but we'll watch and see. >> all right, john. thanks, john harwood there in washington. >> with what is being called significant progress by authorities in the investigation into the boston marathon bombings, the fbi and boston police are planning a joint briefing. keep it right here. >> but first, if you're concerned about the potential impact of all the latest terror events on your money, we've got some guidance for you from one of wall street's top money pros. don't go anywhere, we're back with more "closing bell" after this. guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ male announcer ] when gloria and her financial advisor made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. boy, they have fast-moving developments and conflicting reports out of boston. scott cohn is back with us once more with the very latest details. scott? >> reporter: bill, grief gave way to anger and now frustration. a press briefing scheduled for the top of the hour led by the fbi to give us the latest events in boston has now been postponed. the reason it was postponed is because the federal courthouse had to be evacuated because of the bomb scare. the bomb scare is now over. the bomb scare apparently unrelated to any of the events here, the attacks on the boston marathon on monday. people were allowed to go back to their offices, but some damage done in terms of the schedule. so there will be a press briefing a some time later on. we're told there will be an advisory. this coming from the fbi, which is the lead agency. if they say it's postponed, it is postponed. one thing we know for certain based on the last several hours is that everyone is on edge and a lot of that culminated at around 1:00 eastern time when reports came out that a suspect was about to be arrested, that there might be somebody in custody, that there might be more than one person in custody. those reports strongly knocked down by federal authorities with an admonition to the media to try to get things right and get things through official sources. but nonetheless, despite that, that false report and the bomb scare, there are fragments of the real bomb that did such horrific damage, the bombs that did such horrific damage on monday afternoon. those recovered from the scene of the blast and pictures released and they are chilling, to say the least. the shrapnel that did so much damage, the pieces of the pressure cooker that encased the obam bomb, as well as the nylon bag that was used to hide it and drop it at the site of the finish line of the boston marathon. and yet, all through today, the search for clues continues. we saw quite a bit of activity along boylston street. evidence technicians from the fbi and the atf going from the ground up to the rooftops and hopefully gathering yet more clues. president obama will be here tomorrow for an interfaith memorial service, still more questions here than answers. back to you. >> all right. scott, thank you very much. let's talk more about what transpires during this type of an investigation. we're joined by robert, former assistant secretary for homeland security. now he's at implant sciences, which develops explosive trace detection sensors. >> also with us is robert mcfadden, former ncis special agent in charge of deputy assistant director of counterintelligence operations. gentleman, good to have you here. now that we've seen the details of this bomb that scott just you lined for us with the pressure cookers, does it tell us anything about the suspect? >> people frequently ask the question, does this mean it's not a very sophisticated device and therefore it's an amateur or could this be somebody who's trying to cover their tracks and they're very professional at it? i think, you know, the law enforcement knows that they've either got a fair good idea right now in terms of the types of people they're looking for. whether they're affiliated with a terrorist group or not. i think they've got a pretty good sense of that right now. i think from what we know from the open sources, this is somebody that didn't have, necessarily, access to more lethal types of explosives or higher order explosives. that may have been wanting to stay around radar screen, or they may not have the technical capability of constructing a more sophisticated type of bomb. but candidly, it was lethal, and that's probably all they really cared about. >> bob mcfadden, the chain of events today seems they were able to use some of the video from the top of the building around the lord and taylor store there to help identify somebody who you might call a person of interest, some people were calling him a suspect. they either knew this person or were able to use facial recognition technology of some sort. explain how that works. >> absolutely. there's a tremendous amount of data that they'll be going through at this time. in fact, it's been described in the amounts of terabytes. you have the investigative team doing meticulous interviews with eyewitnesss and other witnesses to try to marry up what they saw with the timeline and those pieces of the puzzle. >> do you have any insight, mr. mcfadden, to what could have happened, where some reporters were told that there was somebody in custody? >> you know, when i heard that this afternoon, i have to admit, my first inclination was, if a suspect has been brought into custody, it would have happened much earlier. from an investigator's standpoint or from a prosecutor's standpoint or even from an intelligence standpoint, the first minutes, even the first hours of someone in custody is critically important in a terrorism case, so that you try to get to, is there another event coming? so i could see where there could be some confusion, especially in a case this large. >> bob, i mean, if they have somebody, another law enforcement official friend of mine who e-mails and agrees with rudy giuliani, who suggested that maybe they were talking to somebody, but they didn't want to officially arrest that person for miranda reasons, and may have been where this misinterpretation came from. do you think that they may be talking to somebody at this point? >> i'm sure they're talking to a lot of folks. you've got a lot of investigators working on this, and they're going in multiple paths as bob just said, you're looking at trying to collect as much information as quickly as you can. you're looking at two different scenarios here. one, we're looking at one in which they're trying to identify the suspect for an arrest. the other, we're trying to protect against subsequent potential attacks. so investigators have to move fast. they're going to be have been careful with the evidence they collect, but there'll be a lot of misinterpretation of the data they're gathering by folks on the outside. so it's understandable that things like this will happen. >> and i gather, bob, you have been talking a lot since you and i last spoke on wednesday. >> i sure have. >> thank you both for your insights. so coming up, what kind of person bombs innocent people at the boston marathon. legendary fbi profiler clint van zandt will join us with his thoughts. >> looking forward to that. and how do investors stay calm and carry through all the ebb and flow of recent events? 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[ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ back to the markets now. more lows than highs this week. and in our world, the same is true for the markets. bob my spisani is with us. todd cycloschoenberger joins us well. we've had a change in tone, haven't we? >> yeah, we've been in an up trend for a long, long time. suddenly, we have two really lousy days, monday and today. days where there is heavy volume on the downside, days when new lows expand in the market. we haven't seen that for a long time. 90% of the volume to the downside on both of these days, this is starting to raising questions about whether or not this up trend is now becoming, stalling out or becoming potentially a down trend. it's called a trend reversal. >> todd, what do you think? are we seeing that right now? you're going to make a bet on that question and what the outcome is? >> great entry point right now. bob, i'm completely disagreeing with you, and i'll tell you why. you have a couple of bad days in the market, but this is a great entry point for investors. i'm still predicting dow 16,000 by year end. this was a wonderful opportunity. we probably will continue to slide lower in the coming days, probably even the next couple of weeks, however, the long-term trend is very bullish. >> there's no doubt the market has been tremendously resilient, but you have to agree, the question is, is the commodity market right or has the stock market got it right? the commodity market has been going nowhere for ages. we're at new lows on copper, on nickel, on all the key commodity products like aluminum. that's a little bit worrisome. >> you're right about that, bob, but that is the fear of it. you don't want to hold on to the metals, which used to be the flight to quality, flight to safety. right now you have to look on the multi-nationals and pick sectors that are going to be in favor. don't forget about the energy sector. >> but the spirit of his question is, are those commodities telling you that the economy cease going to get a lot worse and lead to a lower market? >> not at all. this economy is getting better. i know the jobs number was horrendous, the gdp numbers are not that great. but realistically, you have central banks around the globe that are not going to let us go into an economic catastrophe. they will continue to pump money into the market. >> if you're willing to step into this market even more than you already have, how much of a decline are you willing to absorb in the meantime? >> 5%. this market would drop another 5%. and granted -- >> what if it does more than that? >> if it does, it does. and we'll re-evaluate. you will see an accelerated sell-off, though. this will happen very quickly. but realistically, though, if you look at the next two-thirds of this year, we're probably going to end up -- >> i agree, it's not alarming. we are back to where we were, about a week and a half ago in the stock market. we're about 3% below our highs. still, it is a little bit alarming that the stated aim of the federal reserve, to create some asset inflation isn't really working, at least not in the commodity market. >> you have to look at it that way, but also look at quantitative easing being as a way to increase -- >> i gguys, thank you so much. all right. who is behind the boston marathon bombings? >> we'll talk to a former fbi profiler who used to be part of the so-called silence of the lambs unit. he's got a lot of experience hunting down the bad guys. we'll get his thoughts on who might have masterminded this bombings when we come back in just a moment. zap technology. departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. if you're just joining us, if you haven't heard yet the senate failed to advance the portion of the gun control measure that would require background checks. they needed the 60 votes. they got 54 votes on that. president obama will be hosting a news conference at 5:30 eastern time on the gun control measure. and "fast money" will take us live to that. stay tuned for that. michelle? >> bill, the latest from boston is the authorities have solid leads but as of now, no arrest. joining us is clint van zandt. he's a former hostage negotiator. he worked on many cases from the oklahoma city bombings to the unabomber. >> welcome back. >> good to be with you. >> based on everything we know about the bomb that was used, what kind of person did this? >> even though the bomb itself has roots in asia, the middle east, this is a popular device on the internet we know for example in 2011 a former soldier at fort hood built two similar devices that he was going to attack the military that major nadal hasan did. it would be easy for one person to do this. easier for two. no indication that it's a group whatsoever. >> why don't you think anybody's taken credit for this? what's the point if you're going to do this and not make a statement at some point that's obvious? >> for example the anthrax centers. the fbi believes the scientist who committed suicide that did that never said look what i did. we got these letters that went out, but no one person, no one organization took credit. sometimes for some people the best secret is knowing something that nobody else in the world does. you watch tv, you know you did that, but nobody else knows it. there are people who take joy in just that type of sadistic knowledge. >> can you tell domestic versus foreign? >> again, there's no indication of foreign involvement other than the type of device itself. this is something that would have been assembled probably near by components that you can buy in the local area. there is nothing to suggest a foreign national. however -- and i say however -- you can have someone who had some type of radical inspiration if the internet, from some religious or political belief. we can't rule that out. but right now it appears we have our traditional lone wolf who may have done this. >> do you worry about copy caters then, clint? >> absolutely. these devices are too easy to build. america is too vulnerable. every year between thanksgiving and christmas, it scares me because somebody could do this in shopping malls and just destroy our retail trade. it hasn't been done. here's one example. it could be a long summer, folks. >> let's hope they didn't hear you. clint, thank you so much. >> thanks as always. >> all right. with the midpoint of the week, what's in store for your money tomorrow? >> we have pros to give you the leg up on tomorrow when we come back. 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