Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150916

If congress does move on relaxing the u. S. Ban on exports of crude oil. Ill keep an eye on that story which the white house says they still prefer their administration to address. We take you live to the nymex for the latest shortly. And fitbit soaring again today on nufz a corporate account with target. We debate whether this stock is more than a fad bill. They order 335,000 fitbits theyre going to hand out to all target employees. Thats a lot. Plus mad money meets closing bell. Jim cramers going to join us today. Hell be live from the dream force conference out there in San Francisco. Hes with the ceo of Western Union coming up shortly here. But in the meantime lets get to the story of the day. Jackie deangelis joins us now from the nymex with this big rally on oil today. Jackie . Reporter good afternoon, guys. Thats right. A near 6 jump in oil prices today. We havent seen a move like this since august 31st. That was one of the days we popped 8. 8 . So these wild swings continue when it comes to oil prices. We have three main factors that really drove us eyer today. It started with the eia this morning. A pretty bullish report by all accounts. Not just on its face because of the inventory number, a drawdown of 2. 1 Million Barrels. But when you dug deeper you saw that imports fell a little bit. You saw u. S. Production getting closer to 9. 1 Million Barrels a day. Refinery runs, they wrup. And also a drawdown in cushing, nearly 2 Million Barrels. We havent seen that since february of last year. All of these factors taking us up. Then you had the headlines coming out that u. S. Boots were on the ground in syria. And while syria is not an Oil Producing region you know psychologically this impacts the trader mindset. When theres conflict in the middle east. I will emphasize that we have defense officials saying its an advise and assist role only. So nothing too major there. But at the same time psychologically traders bid oil up. The third issue was the technical setup. It was the perfect setup to move higher. We broke through the 50day moving average, 46. 50. And we end up settling the session at 47. 15. Having said, that can we go higher from here . If these factors continue to persist, we probably will. Brent crude got over 50 a barrel today just before the close. It retreated a little bit. Back to you. All right, jackie, thank you for now. Our Jackie Deangelis joining us for his take on todays move in oil is alan nukman from bar chart. Youre saying the goldman call that oil was going to 20 was a sign of a bottom here. You think oils going to keep moving higher now . Weve seen a sentiment shift. And that may have been the last gasp. I really like how things have bottomed out this time. The last sell we saw in mid august at the end of august where we saw the markets rally from 37 to 50, that was unnatural. Markets dont usually make a bottom like that. And what weve seen in the last 10 to 12 sessions is a test of this Halfway Point at 43 and a failure repeatedly. Today were making new tensession highs and a move back above 350 50. 50 is the midpoint of the 37 low to the 67 high a few months ago. So 50s a very important pivot. We get back above that you can see the short scramble some more, something im keeping an eye on as a proxy is the Canadian Dollar because thats really suffered with crude prices over the last few years. The Canadian Dollar down at its lows could be an opportunity for some up side move. Were talking about the magnitude of this gain today, alan. 5 1 2 right now, almost 6 . And this is just on inventory and this report about syria. Doesnt it feel like its overdoing things right now or is this a technical move . Is that the point youre making . I think its a combination of both. This market gets very emotional to downer moves and bounces. Its important to see how we follow through. A push above 50 and close above 50 on a weekly basis can probably mean a bottom is in place in the near term, but things do get overdone in this marketplace all of the time. And you can see this snapback when the shorts have to cover. And thats really what im looking to see here if were going to get any followthrough on this over the next few sessions, and prove that weve got something behind this. Just briefly, alan, whether Congress Moves ahead to relax the export ban on oil, is that a key part of todays move or of Energy Shares and oil price moving higher in the medium term in general in your opinion . I think the sectors been so beaten and battered that anything can be viewed as a positive just to stop the downward momentum. If the market can get any support or any stability, that can be very much a positive for the stock market in general because youve got to remember that sector comprise about 8 or 10 of the overall s p and its just been a drag. So if the Energy Market can stabilize that can be very much a positive for the whole marketplace. Alan knuckman, good to see you. Thanks for your insights on oil. Look whos back. Cnbc contributor Heather Hughes from sun america funds, back. Good to see you. Good to see you. I missed you guys. We missed you too. Also with us steve grasso from Stewart Frankel at post 9 here at the new york stock exchange. And Rick Santelli is in chicago as well. Steve, im going to start with you. Weve got the fed meeting, the announcement tomorrow. Weve got expiration on friday. Weve got the oil move here. Is that whats all contributing to this rally in equities or is there Something Else going on do you think . I think you hit it on the head. I think a lot of this is preloaded, bill. A lot of people have to square up their books. Weve harnl selloff in just a handful of days and guys got short off of that and now you see guys covering ahead of that expiration, ahead of the fed. Why would they expose themselves to extreme volatility on friday or the day of . Because you get a lot of these whiplash markets Going Forward. I think guys are forced to cover and guys that want to resort this market, this is a level of resistance here right up to 2,000 in the s p cash where you really want to lay back into them. If you believe that the market is going down, which a lot of people still do. Meantime, that tenyear, correct me if im wrong, 2. 3 continuing to creep higher ahead of this fed decision tomorrow. A plus for kelly. Yes. As a matter of fact, you i have a couple of charts loaded in. Whether its a twoday of twos, tens or 30s, the short term did tinker with yesterdays high earlier. But the 10s and 30s are zooming. Youre correct. Nobody knows what janet yellen and stan fischer are going to do. I think looking to the markets for clues. What were seeing are clues that point to what steve said. Trying to deal with as much of the unknown as we possibly can, mostly from a defensive standpoint. And i think it makes perfect sense. I cant tell you whats going to happen but i certainly hope, certainly hope we have some normalization tomorrow. I think capital being put into companies that dont deserve it because rates are lower, are companies that would have existed that arent because they havent been created because capital isnt doing what markets force td to do and that is going to the most efficient, the most productive investments and the ones that cant hold their own shouldnt have subsidized grades. But one thing i can tell you for sure, things like a 250 or 260 10 doesnt sound rational, does it . But neither did october 15th of last year. I guess what im saying is do not be shocked if we see volatility in yields that dont seem possible right now. But i think the good news, if good news is lower yields for many out there, that the dynamics of the Global Economy will prevail after the volatility diminishes. You know, heather, you were gone for three months, you missed a lot but you feel like you didnt miss anything, right . Yeah, i missed nothing, right . What are we still talking about . The fed. Look, its been warned. We have been warned. And it has been telegraphed that theyre going to raise rates over 18 months of near zero rates in terms of Interest Rates. Its time. For that to happen. So rick, i hope i can get a plus from you as well that the path to normalization is somewhat normal. Especially in our industry. In the Mutual Fund Industry right now. Look, the retail investor, theyre not billionaires. Theyre not the average hedge fund or Goldman Sachs where theyre a quarter point is really going to affect them in the short term at the end of the day. Over the long run perhaps. But right now theyre getting rates at prime plus one, prime plus two. In the future Fund Industry it really may not mean much, tomorrows quarter point or even throw out a trial balloon of a 12 bip and eighth increase. Yeah, we keep hearing that rumor coming to the fore. That would be so anticlimactic if they did that. Heathers kind of focusing on the Retail Investors for the longer term. What do you think is at stake for these markets tomorrow . How coiled is the spring waiting on the feds decision one way or the other . Whatever the first move is is probably the wrong move. But as i said when i started off i think its preloaded. I think a lot of this rally has already eaten up its clock. So i would assume youre going to see guys maybe rally a little further based on closure but then sell them off into that print. I just dont think im not in agreement. I dont think they can raise rates. I dont think they should. I dont think they can. I think theyre paralyzed at this point. I hear you getting back to a little sense of normalcy. But we usually raise rates in an environment of inflation, better global growth. But we have unemployment at 5. 1 mers, one of their mandates. I get it gdps in crisis, steve. Total crisis. I totally get it, and i agree with you on a lot of levels when we look at just america. But unfortunately, the two you guys understand it, its whether i agree with it or not doesnt make any doesnt matter. The fed is looking at global growth. Right or wrong, they are. Or else rick and heather, they would have raised rates a lot earlier than, this would they not have . Dr. J had a song in 1973, grasso. Not dr. J youre on with. The song was right place at the wrong time. With the fed, and i think mr. Hogan said, that might be the wrong time, but its definitely the right thing to do. Contrary to popular belief you might think the markets actually would decline if we dont see a rate increase because everybodys expecting that to happen and it would be a positive sign. All right. Well, we will know tomorrow at this point, well know what happened. By the way, heather, congratulations to your hubby on the welcoming of samantha. There she is. Thank you so much. Three months along. Very happy for you and your husband on that one. We just heard her first word is qe. Yes. Qe forever is coming. Put her in front of the tv, ill put her to sleep no, problem there. Thanks, kelly. Thanks, folks. See you later. 50 minutes to go into the close. The dow is up 130 points, building on yesterdays gains. That means weve got a significant rally going into the feds decision tomorrow. The central bank beginning its meeting today. The s p 500 up 15. The nasdaq 23. The day before the fed announced this. Jim graham will be with us. Editor at grants Interest Rate observer. Hell be speaking with kelly exclusively next hour. Find out why he says Monetary Policy has entered into the twilight zone. And up next jim cramer speaks exclusively with Western Union ceo live from the dreamforce tech conference in San Francisco. That company in the middle of so many payments trends. Also, bill, the refugee crisis. Well talk to him coming up right after this. Here at the Td Ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. Sup jj . Working hard . Working 24 7 on mobile trader, rated 1 trading app in the app store. It lets you trade stocks, options, futures. Even advanced orders. And it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. You work so late. I guess you dont see your family very much . I see them all the time. Did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. The 306 horsepower lexus gs. Experience the next level of performance, and theres no going back. Lease the 2015 gs 350 with complimentary Navigation System for these terms. See your lexus dealer. Announcer babies who are talked to from the time theyre born. Are more likely to have a successful future. Talking and reading to children in their first years has a huge impact on what they do with the rest of their lives. The fewer words they hear, the greater their chances of dropping out of school and getting into trouble. Talk. Read. Sing. Your words have the power to shape their world. Learn more at first5california. Com parents 165yearold company. How can you stay relevant in an age when i thought we dont needbrook support . We are in 200 countries. We have 500,000 locations, 100,000 atms. What we do is we really adapt our Business Model to the customer needs. Some parts of the world you can see it today, the people really need cash. By the way, 8 30ers of the world payments are done by cash. In africa 99 . In south asia over 90 far over 90 of the transaction is done by cash. What we do is we combine the digital money. In San Francisco where we are here at the salesforce. Com, dreamforce event we combine the mobile money with a location, somewhere in uganda or in sri lan lanka. Or in perhaps what is a very sad humanitarian crisis. Youve got people going from syria, from afghanistan, from libya, and they have to have money. And they cant get it any other way than Western Union. First of all, its really a humanitarian crisis, whats happening. There are a Million People moving through europe for a better life. We have to understand the humanitarian crisis, which our customers are really migrants worldwide. There are about 250 migrants worldwide. And apart whats happening now, people are moving from syria from the war zone, a terrible situation, Getting Better opportunities for their children or their families. On their way there they need cash, to take a bus or to take a train. The relatives in canada, for instance, sending money to their relatives in serbia, or in hungary or in germany for their daytoday needs. And i think most people dont realize but it isnt like all borders are free. You cant do business in a lot of these countries. But because of legacy, Western Unions there. Its the crossborder as you said. We are in 200 countries. We pay out in 13 currencies, 23r507bz actions every second. And thats the needs where we combine that. And in the middle we have this settlement. Antimoney laundering engine which transfers money really in digital way, in minutes, and we turn that money, digital money, into customer needs somewhere in cash or somewhere in an account. Last quarter much better nan expected. You beat and you raised forecast. Some of this is back to an old business that you have which is mexican immigrants returning money. This business has gotten very good for you again. Yeah, i think mexico, were very well positioned. We have a good welltrusted brand. Numbers show up, we are gaining market share. You know, the combination of sending digital to a location orkz works in mexico, location to location works in mexico. We do also very ethnic marketing. We do understand the customer needs. We speak their languages. We speak in my employees speak about 75 different languages every time. And really ethnic marketing is efficient. And the Customers Trust us. The mexican people trust us. Its hardearned money. If you make about 500 or 1,000 a month, half of the money goes back to the loved ones. And number one reason is the educational reason that your kids have a better life. And they trust us that the kids in mexico, in rural areas, wherever that is, get the money. At the same time youve been returning money to the shareholders because its been a consistent theme of pure regime, Western Union. We have a good cash flow and we have a good program or dividend yield is about 3 . Then we also have a good stock buyback program. I think the company is doing well. Our new strategy combining digital with retail is working very well and also the business is doing very well. I also think its important for this humanitarian crisis. Youre not just helping. Youre actually helping the refugees themselves. Yeah. I think we are helping. This program. Because the refugees today are also our future customers. Besides that were really helping. Were giving them you have a package of every transaction done in European Union gives also back to the refugee crisis. Thats a nice note to leave it on. Western union ceo. Thanks so much. Guys . Jim, we thank you both for thant view. Jim, while we have you, can i just ask, were about an hour away from oracles earnings. Youre out there at salesforce. Theres still plenty of takeover talk about these two companies. Benioff took a couple of shots at oracles Cloud Strategy on their last call. Are you picking up anything, jim, you might want to keep in mind as we wait for these numbers on oracle today . Yeah. We have an interview with mark benioff, also behind us. Salesforce. Oracle is not merging with salesforce. Its just not happening. Its staying right off the table. I think what does matter is oracle is trying to move into the cloud. Salesforce is trying to move into what i call just being a customer friend. And i know that there is what i actually regard as a friendly rivalry between the two. Oracle itself is a very inexpensive stock. When you want just plain vanilla earnings. A return of capital, buyback dividend. But obviously, salesforce is one of these companies that i think is front row and the growth is work here. Stim, someones got to follow the law, Larry Ellison, dont they . When he decides to hand over the reins. Always have to know what larrys up to. But i think well be hearing more. Im sure larry will throw in some barbs about dream force because larrys a competitive guy. But thats just the way he is. If he were in the soda industry hed be knocking every other soda company. Thats his way. Thank you. Thanks. Appreciate it. See you later. Heading to the close here, the dow with about 39 minutes left in the trading session. Holding near the highs of the session here. Day before fed day, up 130i7b9s right now. Up next, fitbit jumping higher on signs its Corporate Wellness division could take off. Well speak with a fitbit bull and bear on whether now is the time to buy these shares. This just in 50 million customers data was not compromised this morning in a Security Breach that didnt happen. Wall street. Not rattled. At all. No. Not at all. Not at all. I mean, look at the day. Sir. Sir. What went right . What went right . Everything. Thank you. With threat intelligence, behavioral analytics, and 6000 experts, ibm security will help keep you out of the news. My dads company wasnt hacked today. Cool. At ally bank no branches equalsits a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. Welcome back. Dows up 141 points today. The s p adding 17. The nasdaq up 26. Solid gains as Interest Rates move higher and oil pops today well head of the feds decision. Now apple delaying the release of its watch os2 operating system on a bug thats taking longer than expected to fix. Those shares are down today, bucking the Broader Market. Apple says it will release watch os2 shortly. Apparently im supposed to download ios 9 in the ipad soon. A lot of changes coming. Are you a pro update guy . I want to see what happens. Windows 10 apparently has a few issues. People downloading that one as well. Have you seen fitbit stock today . Its up about 14 . Now 13 1 4. That will get the heart pumping. The wearable device is now compliant with the Health Insurance portability and accountability act. And it can be intd graited into Corporate Wellness programs. So therefore retail giant target on board ordering 35,000 fitbits for its employees for how fitness makes the gadget stock. Lets bring in ross gerber from gerber kawasaki whos bearish and dan ives from Capital Markets who is bullish. Whats not to love about 335,000 new customers . I dont know if you deserve a billiondollar yum jump in market cap for a 15 or 20 Million Dollar order but i do see the Bigger Picture here which is popular for fitbit but i think were talking about a valuation issue and the fact anybody can the tracking is not accurate. Its been proven their heartrate monitor doesnt work that well. Your wrist can explode on one of the devices i guess. What . Your wrist can explode . I never heard that. It burns people i guess. I dont know. But theyve had all these manufacturing issues. And i just think like a show me can come in and make one of these things for 20 bukds. But nobody has. Theyve owned this market so far. If you go online right now theres the jaw boeb and theres the best of all fitness trackers, the apple watch. Its a good entrylevel fitness tracker and i like the business and theyre growing. But im not going to pay 7 billion for this company. Its crazy. Dan, make the kays for them then. Weve done a lot of work in the Wearable Technology market. We think theres a 20 billion Market Opportunity over the next five years. I can tell at apples launch event last week, developers talking about the watch. Weve seen some signs of success there over the last three, four weeks. Health is going to be the main driver here. This is something as investors look at this space in consumer technology, today its in its infancy. We really see this as a major Growth Paradigm shift. With health, with enterprises. You know, looking for employees to focus on some of their watches or other Wearable Technology. This is definitely an area that investors should be focused on given what were seeing in growth perspective. Dan, i want you to take a listen to something we heard last week that i wonder gets to the fact that this could be as much a passing fad as anything for fitbit. It was a question i asked Jessica Simpson, if she wore a fitbit and what she thought of it. Take a listen. Do you wear an apple watch . No. Or a fitbit . I used to wear a fitbit. But now i know how many miles it takes to burn the calories. So especially in the shoes. It can really, really add up. So dan, listen, fitbit had its moment. 10,000 steps revolutionizing this country in some ways. What happens when everyone kind of gets it and doesnt need to wear it anymore . I think thats been one of the worries out there that were seeing across consumer on the health side. But we view this when you go to augment reality, to health, we are in the early days of where this is going over the next two, three years. Today its health but its going to be a much Broader Market as we go forward and we see it creeping up to enterprise. We see microsoft and apple going after this market, which in our opinion speaks to how big this opportunity is over the coming years. But youre not talking about fitbit. Youre talking about a market that i totally agree with everything youre saying. But fitbit is just a onetrick pony here. Much bigger thing. Why not . Why not fitbit . Because anyone can do it. They have no moat around their business at all. And exactly what Jessica Simpson said is exactly what happened to me when i bought a fitbit. I wore it for a day. You know, 10,000 steps is not fitness. Theres so much more to fitness like apple tracks several factors of your day. Not just how many steps you have. Like exercise versus steps. Very important. The apple watch has worked wonders. So i totally agree with the theme, and i think its a great business but fitbit mate not be the place to play it. By the way, something that i learned just the other day, bill, look at your iphone. If you have that ihealth app, it has been track how many steps you take. It tracks everything. Its amazing. I can look at it you can look at it this very instant. Zbliel look at it during commercial break. It does work. Ive lost like five pounds since i got the apple watch. It really does. Im not kidding. I thought you looked a little different, ross. Thank you. I can pose down for you if you want. See you, dan. Thats okay. No problem. See you later. By the way, dont miss jim cramers exclusive with fitbit ceo james park coming up tomorrow night on mad money. We look forward to that. Meantime, we have a market flash on Williams Companies with our friend dominic chu. First of all, i should say i should probably get a fitness fracker if it really does help me lose that kind of weight. Williams Company Shares are up right now. We have some headlines coming out of bloomberg right now saying that were getting closer and closer possibly to a deal for Williams Companies, which is a natural gas and hydrocarbon pipeline company. They operate the pipelines and transport liquefied natural gas, natural gas, that sort of thing. Closer to a deal for Energy Transfer equity to take over williams. You may remember that williams earlier this summer, i wont say back in june, had said they were going to explore Strategic Options including possibly selling themselves. Some other people have dropped out of the bidding process, notably spectra energy. So now it looks increasingly like perhaps the Energy Transfer is going to be the party that buys them. This according to headlines coming out of bloomberg right now. Those williams shares up on that bit of news. Also want to throw in Something Else just for your perusal, guys, as well. Were also getting some comments about orbitz and expedia, both gaining some ground right now on bloomberg headlines say that possibly u. S. Antitrust regulators are said to approve expedias pending acquisition of orbitz. Again, these are headlines coming out of bloomberg. You may remember that senator klobuchar, a few others, had had some opposition to this deal for antitrust concerns but again, the headlines right now, orbitz and expedia possibly getting ready to have their deal approved and thats whats sending those shares higher. Kelly, bill, a couple of those names to watch in the afternoon. Back over to you guys. As you can see from the share reaction, that is actually big news. Yes, it is. Dom, thank you so much. Our dominic chu. Lets get over to sue herera. Time for a cnbc update. Sue . Hi, kelly. Hi, bill. Heres whats happening at this hour. It is all clear at the white house right now. There had been some earlier reports that the white house had been put on lockdown and areas around the white house were briefly cleared. But those reports of a lockdown were inaccurate. The u. N. Refugee agency voicing shock at hungarys turning back of migrants and refugees and preventing them from entering the European Union with Water Cannons and tear gas. This after refugees tried to break through a border post on serbias side of the border earlier today. Health officials reporting yet another death at an Illinois Veterans home in quincy, illinois. That brings the total to 13. Another 50 people had been sickened. The source of the outbreak, though, remains unknown. Jon stewart speaking at a rally outside the capitol joining a group of 9 11 First Responders as well as politicians and supporters who were trying to Push Congress for a complete and permanent extension of the 9 11 health and compensation act. One part of that act expires at the end of the month. And lamborghinis ceo introducing the automakers new convertible at the frankfurt auto show. The v10 engine produces 610 horsepower. It goes from 0 to 60 Miles Per Hour in about three seconds. The asking price before taxes, of course, is 210,000. But guys, with the traffic in new york city, youd never get to 60. I know. I dont know where youd let that out. I dont know either. I cant imagine what the miles per gallon is too. Oh, im sure with a v10 you dont get much. No. Thanks, sue. See you in an hour. Checking your steps . I did. Look at this. Its been tracking you. I know. The app on the iphone. And you know, i left my iphone at home on vacation. Thats the excuse, huh . It didnt move for two weeks. This is crazy. Its been counting my steps all day today. I didnt even know it. Check your iphones, everybody. Who knew . 30 minutes to go into the close. The dow is up 145 points. Thats nearly 1 for the s p as well which is up 18. The nasdaq a bit of a laggard today actually but its still up 27. Im going to go step onto the floor in just a minute. Coming up, jim grant, editor of the closely followed newsletter bearing his name. Well speak with him exclusively and be sure to watch our special coverage of the feds decision. Thats coming up tomorrow. Our lineup of heavy hitters includes blackrocks rick reeder plus former fed officials gary stern and randy crosner. Just one of the many names we have lined up for tomorrow. Stay tuned. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep it all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. Add new Business Services with at t and get up to 500 in total savings. All right. Were in that critical last half hour of the trade. Right now keith from catoma and Company Joining me. So much going on. The oil rally, expiration on friday and that little Meeting Announcement coming tomorrow. What do you make of this rally today . Whats that about . We actually foretold this rally. We knew it was going to come. The markets had gotten really extended to the down side back in august. We thought it was going to get here. It stayed down. There was a lot of disruption and trouble inside of the markets, which led to this little bit of delay. But its not at all surprising to us that were here right now. How much higher then . Chinas going to play out the way chinas going to play out. Theyve clearly got problems. They need to do whatever they can to get stabilized. Theyre throwing everything including the kitchen sink at it right now but i think where the markets are right now were actually at a pretty critical juncture on these indexes. If we can stay up here and hold these for the next couple of days i think the s p 500 can get up to 2030. Whats your gut say for tomorrow . No raise. Nothing will happen. And what will the market do with that do you think . I think it will rally. It will be the catalyst that will push us again higher. Right now if you look at the charts were trading right along pretty strong resistance bands, which is the 2011 trend line. The nasdaq and the russell was able to debt above that. The s p is pushing right now. If we can close above 18 the 90. The dows a bit of a laggard. But if we get the push tomorrow when they say no rate raise well get up to that 2030 level which im tarkting. We will see. Thanks, keith. The dow up 149 points right now. Kelly . And keith saying no raise. Lets find out what most wall street economists think the fed will decide tomorrow and if it will royal the markets. Steve liesman has our latest fed survey results. Steve . Kelly, it is very close. This is like Broward County in 2000. Were counting the hanging chads. But here we go. We have 49 saying that the fed will hike tomorrow. This is our 51 economists, Money Managers and strat jifts. 43 say no its going to happen at some later date. But 8 are unsure. They may not have understood the ballot or they may not have been paying attention. But its 4943 the fed does hike tomorrow. If the fed does hike, they foresee still a very gradual rise. Notice back in august 2014 they thought the fed funds rate at the end of this year would be 90 basis points and 2 and the 2016. That forecast has gradually come down, down, down, down, down. Now they foresee just 40 basis points end of this year and 1. 17 for the end of 2016. Want to show you the outlook for the s p. Good news and bad news. The 2032. You heard our last guest give that exact number. 9 run for the end of next year. But what you see is that the alltime high of the s p was 2130. We dont take that out until sometime next year or get back to that level. Biggest threats to the u. S. Economy, guess what it is. It is global wackness. Chosen by 45 as the number one threat. Thats up 16 basis points. Coming along here. Tax and regulatory policies, a perennial number one down 5 basis points to 16 . And then Interest Rate rise. Nobodys even afraid of that. That was zero. No votes there. And the last one europe, also coming off zero percent say its the number one threat. Back to kelly. And steve, just thinking about that, zero percent said an Interest Rate rise was a threat. Meanwhile, global weakness. A lot of folks ready for it now. Chief International Economist at deutsche bank. Keith said they dont raise tomorrow. You also seem to be in the if we could call it hawkish hold camp. What do you mean by that . Its getting quite complicated. Steves chart was suggesting with 4949 it becomes incredibly important what the message associated with the action tomorrow is. This is a meng message associated with a hold hawkish or dovish . It gets complicated. But the bottom line is how they lay out their case and what she says at the press conference becomes quite important. What difference would a quarter point hike mean tomorrow . Would anybody be hurt by that . No. The interest thing is the feds model of the u. S. Economy, 25 basis points increase in the funds rate it lowers gdp by are you sitting down . 0. 1 . You can hardly measure that. That means that on its own its not the rate hike. Its the symbolic gesture of starting a cycle, that its all about that. You were talking about the messaging. And this is one we were debating so far this week. Its interesting how much of the street consensus seems to be okay, they might raise rates tomorrow but do it with a dovish message. So explain to us how its so much about how it happens tomorrow as the language around it. Dont worry about what we do, worry about what we say. Thats press conference has become more important. But if we do associate it with lowering the dots, meaning saying they think that the rates will go up slower, that its already gradual, will it be even more gradual, is that what they worry about . Or will she say theres a lot of uncertainty about china and we cant quantify this rix because the reality is nobody can quantify this risk. Thats why steves suggestion is global weakness, how do we figure out what that means . We know the rest of the world doesnt matter thatch for the u. S. , compared to how much, what it means for the rest of the world, but overall global weakness is the unquantifiable thing that she can say we worry about that and whenever we are a little bit more dovish than we otherwise would have been. I agree with you. Its the symbolism. Its the message theyre sending with whatever they do. What would a 12 1 2 basispoint move signal if in fact theres that talk as well, if they cut it in half and only go by an eighth of a point. What would that signal . That would be a very nice compromise, if you will. But the problem is thats creating some complications down the road. They have said very clearly they dont have a target anymore, now they have a range. If they increase the range only 12 1 2 basis points it will create problems for them for the next hike. Because the easiest thing is to move from zero to 25 up to 2550. If they put in place 37 1 2 basis points it gets xwooit quite complicated for them down the road. And the effective rate is in the middle of that rage in a sense, correct . Absolutely. So if were actually talking about an effective funds rate of an eighth of a percent, raising it to that and then trying to figure out is it going to be it would be too confusing. It doesnt give them enough room. It becomes quite complicate ppd thats why sending a signal we do believe this recovery is strong is the best thing they should do tomorrow. Thorson, thank you. In the hawkish hold camp. I just hope they do something tomorrow. The fed fireworks kick off at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. Thats when the announcement comes out. Then at 2 30 eastern, Janet Yellens very Important News conference. We will have all of it for you. Do not miss that live action tomorrow. Its not an oxymoron anymore to say that the fed News Conference will be exciting to watch tomorrow. Oh, yeah. And you just heard additional reasons why this time around. Heading to the close, 17 minutes left in the trading session. Just off a high set moments ago when the dow was up 151 points, now a gain of 146. Still ahead ill talk exclusively with jim grant editor of grants Interest Rate observer. He says regardless of tomorrows Interest Rate decision janet yellen and co have turned the stock market into a hall of mirrors. More after this. Big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Just another day at norfolk southern. Its from virtually anywhere. Rn of danger its been smashed, dropped and driven. Its perceptive enough to detect other vehicles on the road. Its been shaken, rattled and pummeled. Its innovative enough to brake by itself, park itself and help you steer. Its been in the rain. The cold. And dragged through the mud. Introducing the allnew mercedesbenz gle. Its where brains meet brawn. Im angela, and i quit smoking with chantix. For ten long years i was ready to quit. But i couldnt do it on my own. I needed help and chantix was there. And i did it. 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I never thought i would be a nonsmoker and im so proud. Ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. Citing increased health care for millions, a rising stock market and millions of new jobs, president obama told a gathering of ceos that america is great despite what one hears on the gop campaign trail. Our eamon javers has more on the president s lunch with some of our nations top ceos in the capital there. Eamon . Yeah, hi, bill. This is part of president obamas standard playbook. When he wants to put pressure on republicans on capitol hill he turns to the republican allies in the Business Community to help him do that, and that was his message at the business round table today. He was tegg telling american ceos, look, i need your help in putting pressure on republicans on capitol hill not to shut down the government over planned parenthood or any other issue at the end of this month when they need to pass that funding bill or else we will face a Government Shutdown on september 30th and october 1st. So the question now is whether that technique is as effective this year as its been in the past for the president because of this rise of donald trump, because of the rise of populism out on the campaign trail and the antiestablishment mood among the republican base, president ial primary voters and some republican republican members on capitol hill. That may not be as effective a technique as its been in the past. But i think the sound bite thats going to get the most attention from the president s remarks today is this one in which he kind of troled donald trump a bit talking about how get u. S. Economy has been under his stewardship. Take a listen. Despite the perennial doom and gloom that i guess is inevitably part of a president ial campaign, americas winning right now. Americas great right now. So the president there using Donald Trumps own slogans against him about winning and making America Great again. And obviously, that coming just a few hours now before the big republican president ial primary debate tonight, guys, out in california. All right, eamon, thank you. Im just going to say, i cant wait for it. The debate tonight. Going to make some popcorn and sit on the couch absolutely. Well see you on twitter. Usually its not that exciting. But this time around it certainly is. By the way, 2 mun to sell. Thats the imbalance as we head to the close here. Not a lot. And well see if it kind of takes the edge off this rally as we head to the close. A resilient market day. Just about ten minutes left to go. The dow still up 143 points. The s p 17. The nasdaq 28. Our next guest says there are some cheap opportunities in emerging markets if you know what to buy. Hell tell you what they are when we come back. Why should over two hundred years of citi history matter to you . Well, because it tells us something powerful about progress that whether times are good or bad, innovators with great ideas will continue to drive the world forward. As log as they have someone to believe in them. For more than two centuries weve helped progress makers turn their ideas into reality. And the next great idea could be yours. Awe believe active management can protect capital long term. Active management can tap global insights. Active management can take calculated risks. Active management can seek to outperform. Because active Investment Management isnt reactive. Its active. Thats the power of active management. Holding on to gains right near the high of the session with the dow up 151 points right now. And joining us with his thoughts on so many things going on, joe duran from United Capital financial advisers. Theres a feeling. World bank said if the fed were to raise rates right now that it would be damaging to the emerging markets out there. But you see some opportunities out there in emerging markets, dont you . Yeah, i do. I think weve priced in the majority of the fluctuations weve had with the dollar and the decline of the commodity, the super cycle thats now over. And thats priced in. And we tell people the likelihood of a further market sideline from here is relatively low. Is and people seem to forget weve priced in already a 10 drop. The likelihood of another 10 drop is very low. Another 3 to 5 maybe, but its an interesting area to look at. Its certainly speculative. Its still early. But an area where i think you have a lot of opportunity. And the idea that the fed increasing Interest Rates by 25 basis points affect the World Economy is absurd. Its patently absurd. Because what we should have is a rate of about 1 1 2 with an economy growing the way it is right now. To me its a game of chicken little with everyone assuming the world is ending today and the unlikelihood of a 2008 is almost impossible. Do you think their guidance is going to matter almost more than the actual policy decision tomorrow . I think the likelihood of them increasing next year with an election coming is unlikely. So everything theyre going to zblosh at all. You dont think i think theyre going to do something now. Hopefully. I certainly wish we were already at 50. But if theyre going to do any changes it needs to be certainly by the spring because postspring theyre not going to rock the boat at all. So the fed is typically quite dovish going into an election. Everyone knows that. Its unusual from a historical point of view. Its unusual to be where we are. 3. 8 growth in the Second Quarter. 0 Interest Rates. Something has to different. So i think youll see i think hopefully 25. It will send a message and then remove the discussion for the rest of the year. We can only hope. Thank you. Were kind of tired of talking about it too at some point. Thank you very much, joe duran. Were right back with the closing countdown after this. A look at some of these interesting market gyrations today. Then tomorrow dont forget the fed rate decision. Cnbcs indepth coverage begins at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. And closing bell will have the allstar analysis. We get rick reeder back with us. Gary stern from the fed. David rosenberg. Dyne swan, the great economist from chicago. Many more will be joining us to handicap and recap what the fed does tomorrow. Stay tuned. Now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. Im watson. And today hundreds of companies are putting me to work. Im teaching watson to help your vet speak dog. Youre a dog, right . Im teaching watson to help you make healthy choices. Im teaching watson to help design a vacation around your personality. Dont judge. Im teaching watson to answer endless questions. How big is infinity . Where do babies come from . Why cant i have chocolate for breakfast . Im watson and im ready to work with you. Big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Just another day at norfolk southern. Awe believe active management can protect capital long term. Active management can tap global insights. Active management can take calculated risks. Active management can seek to outperform. Because active Investment Management isnt reactive. Its active. Thats the power of active management. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep it all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. Add new Business Services with at t and get up to 500 in total savings. You can see we just built on it as the day went by. Lets add oil to this equation. Once again oil is a contributing factor to this in equities. In fact we have such a rally in crude toyed that its skewing this chart. We cant even see the rise in the dow because the rise in crude oil was so great. Up 5. 7 in todays trade. Brent got back to 50 briefly in todays session. Lets just look at this or the twoyear rather before we get to tomorrows rate increase. We held here is the tenyear. 2. 29 . I did mean the twoyear, but thats my bad. It held at. 8 which is the highest weve seen since april of 11. There is the twoyear note. Thank you, silvina, very much. Now lets goat volatility, which continues to come down interestingly. This is a chart going back to august 1st. And the reason i do that is because that was the last time bob pisani that the vix was below 20. And now were approaching that level once again. I tend to Pay Attention when the vix is above 20. And its been trending downwards for a while now including today. What do we see . I see volatility trending downward. I see stocks up. I see commodities generally to the up side. Particularly oil. Golds been up. I see the dollar down. Regional banks which are Interest Rate sensitive. Generally flat to down today. A lot of them didnt participate in the rally. All this implies to me the market is saying they think the likelihood of a fed rate hike is very small tomorrow. Im in the minority camp. Ive been to one and done for many, many months and i think the market can handle it but i am distinctly in the minority. Yes, you are. Im with you on that. I just want to see it get done. Thank you, bob, very much. So we go out with a rally and we wait to see what happens tomorrow. I hope you can join us for the special coverage. In the meantime oracle earnings coming up and i cant wait to hear jim grants comments on the fed on the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans and company. Thank you, bill, welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. Another nice rally before the Federal Reserves longawaited september meeting decision due out tomorrow. The dow up 137 or thereabouts. The s p 17. The nasdaq adding 28. It was the underperformers who gained about. 6 to nearly. 9 across major averages p. And energy doing nicely. Oil surnging. Up 5 at last check. Lets get a check from Jackie Deangelis. We closed the sessi at 4715. A near 6 pop on the day for wti. Several reasons for this. Traders are on fed watch too. They want to see a dovish fed that pushes the dollar down. That is supportive of crude prices. At the same time we had a very bullish eia report this morning. Several pieces of that report pointed to the fact that oil prices will go higher including the 2. 1 million drawdown that we saw last week. Then the headlines coming out that u. S. Boots were on the ground in syria. This is an advise and assist role only at this point. But the emotional, psychological response to this is to send oil prices higher. Technically speaking we were positioned for this breakout. It happened today. So the volatility in oil continues. Thats the bottom line. Back to you. Jackie, thank you. Joining todays panel we do have cnbc contributors carol roth and stephanie link. For more on todays markets, fast money trader tim seymour. We also have oracle results hitting. Are we going to dom right now . Well get those to you in just a moment. Just turning to the market while he with wait on some of these results, a strong day. A couple of strong days now. Does that set us up for disappointment . Do you read too much into, that stephanie . I think it all depends on what the commentary is. So whether they raise or they dont raise, i think if theyre dovish overall i think the markets will have a relief rally. Im of the mindset the economy is a lot better than having emergency stimulus which is what is in place right now. Whether they do it or not its really a coin toss at this point. I think our economy is on the right track. And i think after tomorrow we have to focus on earn sxigz think earnings are going to be pretty decent. Carol . I think its so point interesting that were at a point that oil has gotten to be so low that investors are actually excite whend it starts to creep up. So that obviously driving a little bit of the market today. One of the things from the economy standpoint, though, that does concern me is fedex coming out with its numbers today. If you think of some company that should be a beneficiary of the low oil prices, you would think fedex. The fact the ltl loads were down and fedex being a transport is sort of an indicator of things to come, Forward Guidance wasnt so good, to me that gives the fed enough room 20 say you know what . We should probably hold off. What did you make of those numbers, stephanie . It was a mess. I think fedex has had a hard time being consistent over the years, as has ups. And i actually think that the issues go beyond just the company specific. Its really amazon and the competition in general. But this kilometer has done a pretty good job. Not meeting expectations. I think it was a mixed report. But i honestly dont think the fed will look at fedex and not act. In fact, i would say that last week there was a transportation conference. Airlines were pretty positive. The rails are suggesting theres a bottoming. If you look at the transportation chart theyre actually bouncing off the bottom. So i think there are multiple factors that go into the feds decision for sure but i think fedex is not one that theyre focused on. Lets get out to oracle now. Those big numbers due out. Read on the tech sector for sure. What can they tell us . This was a tough one to read but let me just give you the overall numbers first. Revenue came in at 8. 4, 8. 45 billion. That looks like a miss but youve got to consider currency here. Also eps came in at 53 cents versus 52 expected. The reason why this is complicated, one, is currency of course. Katz gave guidance in Constant Currency only this time around. Also youve got to consider the shift thats happening to cloud from traditional software. The faster that shift happens the more revenues are going to come in a little lower. Youve got to look at the software plus cloud line. The growth on that line came in at 34 . Oracle said to look for 39 to 43 growth in software as a service plus platform, as a service growth. Overall growth it looks like came in at 7 . Constant currency and oracle guided to between 6 and 8 . So there seems to be within the Guidance Range right around the middle, maybe slightly to the down side for certain metrics. Weve got to be careful looking through to see whether this is because of growth in the cloud areas which would tend to be a ding to revenue but good longer term or if overall demand was weaker than oracle expected, kelly. Right. And well look through those numbers, jon, still. Thank you for now. Tim seymour, whats your reaction to this . Seasonally First Quarter for these guys is not a great time. Second quarter is actually their friend. The fx elements that jon talked about i think are largely in the stock. And in fact, if you think about oracle in the big picture i think jpmorgan because i was reviewing their report today says these guys sit on one of the greatest Global Opportunities for cloud bookings because of their relationships with multinationals of anybody out there. So if you consider the Competitive Landscape a lot of people feel theyre slowly closing and maybe moving ahead of s. A. P. Here. Its a company thats endured a lot of pain. If you look at the stock price. 36 seems to be your trading down side. Taz the august low. Thats the october low. And i think somewhere around here the stock looks kind of interesting. I think the dividend yield the way these guys continue to execute the cloud bookings are very, very good. This wasnt supposed to be a great quarter. Carol . I think its a stock that is very fairly valued. Until they make that break out in the business transition and start with guidance that picks up instead of moving in the wrong direction i think that this is going to be a stock that just sort of bumbles along. Long term it probably will be fine. You certainly dont want to be the person saying that Larry Ellison is not going it execute on a new Business Plan or his two new ceos. But i think for the time being until they really get that transition and communicate that and you see that in the Forward Guidance i dont see this ones going to move too much. I think it was last quarter that they also missed to some extent. Shares were weaker. And larry or somebody said look, were changing into a cloudbased model. You dont need to focus so much on our software bookings. And thats going to mean that revenue instead of being as healthy up front as what were accustomed to is going to be a little more back end loaded, a little more spread out over time. But do you think all of those can hold water now the Second Quarter report comes in a little weak . Well see what they have to say about bookings and the guidance Going Forward but i would say that cloud right now is still such a small percentage of the total story. They still have a big legacy business. Kind of what the Data Center Business did the data base business did and well see what the numbers were. But if i want cloud im not thinking i need to go to oracle. I think i could go to red hat. I think i could go to service now. Which by the way had a great quarter. The stock hasnt really done very much since they reported. I could go to adobe. I could go to so many different cloud plays. And yeah, sure, the valuations are higher and the growth and the is better. Plett point out one perhaps related story as well. Lets look at shares of hewlettpackard today which actually rallied quite substantially. 4 to 350er7b9s close. This after the company said it was going to lay off another 25,000 to 30,000 people. Heres a quote from meg whitman this morning on squawk on the street. She said its remarkable whats happening to our service busine business. As new technologies come in weve got to restructure the labor force to lowcost locations and to much more automation than we have today. Guys, is this going to be a theme not just for hp but for the organizells and some of the Major Companies of the world . Its really interesting because usually you think m a for being the catalyst for layoffs, an split apart. Usually a split apart requires some additional bodies to fill out some additional positions now that you have two companies. The fact youve now split the company in two but youre still having massive layoffs was really striking to me. I think also just another trend that we need to be very careful in terms of jobs and the economy and especially wellpaying jobs. Sure. And tim, i was also struck by some of the deal news today saying we might see a huge merger in the beer business, one that would be almost unheard of, that regulators would even allow it to happen a couple of years ago. But people like craft beers now and thats a threat to the established players. Are we going to expect to see more of this big name even today the travel agencies, orbitz, expedia potentially getting clearance to pursue theirs. In the case of imbev and miller, the industry has been consolidating for five years and imbev has been doing some things they couldnt pull off. Their last deal has resulted in a lot of peripheral players. Constellation made off like a bandit in terms of the modelo stuff they had to divest. If you think about this deal, this deal does not go through without a number of antitrust adjustments. But i think they need the deal. They need the top line growth. And theres nobody better at than these guys at cutting costs. But the valuation whether its brown foreman or diageo. Its probably the most interesting name. Its got the Largest Global growth model. The valuation is most interesting. Consolidation across the board here has resulted in higher multiples and these stocks need to earn these multiples and thats what the deals about. I think the deal goes through. I think inbev needs it. News alert on orbitz and expedia to get to. Dominic chu has the details. The deadline here we just spoke about it is that the department of justice has concluded its antitrust investigation and they are not going to apose the pending merger between expedia and orbitz. The department of justice concluded that the acquisition is unlikely to harm competition and consumers. They looked at a number of things, found no evidence that the merger is likely to result in new charges. They also found that orbitz is a small source of bookings nor most of these companies and third that the Online Travel business is rapidly evolving. Those are some of the reasons they went through. But remember senator Amy Klobuchar of minnesota and mike lee of utah, both had asked for antitrust scrutiny. The d. O. J. Has provide td and through their investigation, kelly, they are not going to oppose the pending acquisition of orbitz by expedia. Back over to you, kelly. Were shoeth afterhours quote but i think its during the session they priced in a lot of this news. 7 , 8 those two names. Carol, you why reaction. I sort of giggle a little bit. Obviously if youre not going to stop the mega mergers of the airlines it really cuts down the choice its kind of hard to make the case these two offshoot websites are something you should but they did block cisco and u. S. Foods. There have been several big deals i with i feel have gone the other way. In this particular case youve got two technology plays that dont really have enough substantial competition visavis other avenues the consumers have to go out and be able to find the prices. I think the bigger issue for consumers who are traveling is the fact they dont have enough choice in airlines. And before we go, if you had to back this out, take a sector view, financials, tech, it if you had to pick a couple going into the fed meeting tomorrow and after, which areas of this market do you like best . Thats hard. Thats really difficult because it really depends on what they do. But i would say that even if they do go theyre going to go slow. The language probably is going to be dovish. Maybe thats not so great for financials in the short term. I still like the financials. But its probably pretty good for the commodity stocks and energy and oil. And i think thats what todays action really was about. That maybe if the fed doesnt go the dollar pulls back a little bit and the stocks can actually rally. Great point. Well leave it right there. Thanks, everybody, for now. Tim, thank you. Be sure to stick around and catch more of tim seymour on fast money at 5 00 p. M. The ceo of acorda striking back at ron bass. Talk to ron cohen in a cnbc interview you dont want to minneapolis i thought there was going to be a little steph curry action too. But i waent tonight do let any cats out of the bag. James grant tells us whether he thinks 1y57b9 yellen will raise rates and how that decision will impact the market. Then chairman yellen will face the press at 2 30 p. M. And coverage continues at 2 30 p. M. With blackrocks rick reider and former fed president gary stern. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Announcer babies who are talked to from the time theyre born. Are more likely to have a successful future. Talking and reading to children in their first years has a huge impact on what they do with the rest of their lives. The fewer words they hear, the greater their chances of dropping out of school and getting into trouble. Talk. Read. Sing. Your words have the power to shape their world. Learn more at first5california. Com parents welcome back. Tomorrow is dday. Decision day for the Federal Reserve on whether or not to raise Interest Rates. Jim grant is the editor of grants Interest Rate observer and he joins me now exclusively. Jim, are they going to do it . Yes. You think they are. I think they do it. I think for the very human reason that janet yellen wants to change the subject as much as we want to have it changed. I mean, you know, just do it, right . Yeah. 25 basis points . We might as well talk about the weather. Yes, i think it will 25b basis points. Meaning 1 4 of 1 percentage point. And the interesting abiding question is why is this so very important and why is everyone talking about it and thinking about it and focusing on it . And those Unanswered Questions i think point to the overdependence of all finance on what we call the ph. D. Standard of monetary management. The centrally directed management of Interest Rates and of course to a degree of asset prices by our wellintend tended but not omniscient masters at the fed. And often when you zero in on particular names you just ignore the fed entirely. Whats your best advice to investors today when youre saying look, were overly obsessed with the fed, what they do isnt going to make a hill of beans of difference . Well, it will. The fact is that the legacy of these six or is it 60. One loses track pf six years of zero percent rates and quantitative easing and its aftermath have distorted the structure of the valuation of assets. Well find out to what degree. Were living in a valuation hall of mir porpz when you discount future cash flows at carvely low regulates, you come up with a very flattering set of cash flows. Right . So as time progresses well find just what the degree of distortion is. But to be sure there is some distortion there. We have to get rid of it sometime. But how much more could shift . In the past if it was the case there was a lot of flangs and they had to keep raising rates to adjust to that, todays environment is different. We have plenty of people saying they might raise them once, twice, they might raise them and say theyre not going to raise them again. Is that going to have impact on the valuations you mentioned . There are many things that are different this time around. One is the difficulty of effecting a rise in this little tiny rate. Once upon a time the federal funds market was vibrant, it was easy to adjust with selling securities or buying them. Now the federal funds market has become marginalized and they must roll out new instruments to work its will on shortterm Interest Rates. Its not so clear that having decide to raise that it will be easy to raise. The fed once upon a time was preoccupied with inflation. Now central bankers the world over are on their high horses about what they choose to call but dont define as deflation. So the question before the house is in a time of wondrous advances in productive technique whether its uber or amazon or Something Else, shouldnt the cost of production decline and shouldnt the cost of buying things decline and do we call that deflation or do you call that progress . Central bankers call it deflation and they create credit and currency sufficient they think to raise up asset prices. In doing so they raise up distortions. Where do you see the biggest distortions today . I think the credit is comprehensively almost universally mispriced. So the dollardenominated debt not overly prosperous third world or emerging markets borrowers, youd be surprised at how cheap it is, that is to say, how low are the yields attached to these securities. The sovereign obligations of european countries, the United States treasury, these are all tiny Interest Rates, junk bonds i think are still not priced for the risks that are inherent in the class of security and that are inherent in a cycle of issuance in which the protection afforded by covenants with the fine print in the loan documents, that protection is near an alltime low as measured and as chronicled. And this could be so an Interest Rate hike tomorrow could be a cat lus. As weve seen in the shakeout for these markets. Weve been talking about this for three years. Now, Financial Markets proverbially look into the future and discount it before it comes to pass. Havent we begun to discount a little of this . It would be an amazing subject for about 15 ph. D. Dissertations in finance that we didnt discount the possibility of a 1 461 rise in this that weve been discussing for five years. Endlessly. Is it possible that something we hear out of tonights debate is more relevant to investors than the fed rate hike tomorrow . I think so. I think what well hear at the debate tonight is the political expression of frustration of a 2 rate of gdp growth. Donald trump is all about catalyze i catalyzing americans discomfort and indeed, you know americans are fed up with the lack of dynamism, the lack of so donald trump is a result of janet yellen. Well, in part donald trump is a janet yellen derivative. Thats right. A golf score and dirty joke guy who has gotten into the mainstream of politics i think because in some mysterious way he galvanizes the pentup frustration of americans with the lack of the characteristic american dynamism in our commerce. Well, well be tuning in obviously tonight and tomorrow, jim, to see what happens with all this. Thank you for joining us with your predictions. Thats jim grants Interest Rate observer. How would the market handle a doomsday cybersecurity crisis. Wall street actually just conclude aid huge test on one, and well get the results first on cnbc next. Plus will a proposed merger of anheuserbusch, inbef, and s. A. B. Miller pass regulatory scrutiny . Thats coming up later on the closing bell. Keep it right here. Take a look at stocks gaining ahead of tomorrows fed decision. The dow ended higher by 140 points. Bolstered by performance from names like exxon as oil jumped today too. Also today a cyber attack bank drill. The securities industry and Financial Markets association, r r sifma, conducted one of the largest cyber skurlths exercises for the financial sector. This one is called quantum dawn three. The simulated attacks took place against some 80 firms and institutions to see how theyd hold up against a real cyber hack to tell us how they fared. We shall now joined by sifmas president and ceo, ken benson. Welcome to you. Thank you for having me. This just conclude add round 4 00 p. M. . It did, yes. What did you find . What this exercise was all about was to create a closed loop simulated multiple attack, which would be a broad low probability but high impact attack broadly on the Financial Markets. Two years ago when we did this we looked at it where you would have to close the equity markets. This time we wanted to look where you had multiple attacks across the industry, across various Market Participants and how you would deal with it while keeping the equity markets open. And the process as you said included Financial Institutions in addition to various government actors. Well come out with an afteraction report later in the month of october but what we really learned about this is information sharing among industry participants with each other and with the government and various government participants is critical. What do you mean by that . What happened . Were there banks that went down . Were there giant runs in the system . Did people panic and pull their money out . Were there people who fared best and worst . It really wasnt designed like that and i dont want to get into details such as that but really what it was designed to do is how would firms who are either dealing with attacks on them individually or various infrastructure of feeling attacks, how would they communicate with one another, how would they communicate with the appropriate government participants and be able to keep Market Operations going. So what we looked at was one, how individual firms might feel certain attacks like a ddos attack, denyse nile of Service Attack or a pii or domain name and then looking at the clearing and settlement processes of the equity markets, if they were feeling some attack on those processes and how firms in the infrastructure would work together. So did the industry do better this time . As a whole. Did they put enough systems in place to advance . Because it seems to me, everything that i read and all the companies i talk to, theres been a lot of resources dedicated to Cyber Security and im hopeful youre going to say that theyre making some big well, again, well come out with an afteraction report, sort of Lessons Learned through this process. But this wasnt like a passfail exam. This is more of how do you train, how do you make your systems are in place. And youre absolutely right. The industry across the board is putting a lot of effort into, this not just on exercises like today but on an ongoing basis. And then in communication with our government partners and the role that they have to play, and this is just one more example of how we can communicate together, work through simulated events and see what lessons can be learned from it. Carol. As far as the way this might impact main street and the average americans, do you have any advice for them on what steps they can be doing to prepare if something happens to their brokerage account, if they cant access their atm, should they have a certain amount of cash on hand or is there something they can do to participate in the preparation as well . Again, lets see what we come up with in the afteraction report. But i think whats important to understand is the industry takes cyber very seriously. This is a top priority issue for the industry and its something that is being worked on every sing many day. Youre right. There are tremendous resources being poured into this. Its an inevitable instance that were going to have Cyber Attacks and we have to work not just on prevention but on response and on recovery. Thats what these exercises are all about. Weve got to leave it there, on ken. Just on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being total readiness, where would you put the Financial Institutions i think overt course of whats been going on in the industry over the last several years, just a tremendous amount of work. We know were going to be hit. With he know already going to be attacks. This happens on a regular basis. Were working to be prepared to deal with it. 5 . 6 . 7 . 2 . This is top priority taken at the highest level of the industry. Understood. Thank you, ken, for joining us. We look forward to more details. Ken bentsen with sifma. Time for a cnbc update. Lets get over to sue herera. Heres whats happening at this hour. The pentagon is clarifying capitol hill testimony today by a top general. It is now saying u. S. Special Operations Forces are helping kurdish rebels who are fighting isis in syria but the coordinating is being done at a base in Northern Iraq with no u. S. Military forces on the ground in syria. After months of chilly relations president obama and israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the white house on november 9th. They will talk about the Iran Nuclear Deal and further enhancing israels security. Recaro child safety is recalling more than 173,000 car seats in the United States made before june 9th of this year. The top portion of the restraint can crack and allow the top tether to detach. No injuries have been reported. New england Quarterback Tom Brady threw his support behind president ial candidate donald trump just hours before the second republican debate. He thinks his golf partner can win. I hope so. It would be great. There would be a putting green on the white house lawn. Im sure of that. Well, there already is a putting green on the white house. It was installed by president eisenhower in 1954. Just in case youre wondering. But im sure if he was elected mr. Trump would make it bigger. Thats the news update, kelly. Back to you. Thank you, sue herera. Under armour ceo kevin plank detailing his plans to keep his red shot stock on a roll next. And then president ial r republican president ial hopeful Carly Fiorina will talk putting greens and more with john harwood. Shell explain in this case why her personal tragedies have made her a stronger candidate. Stay tuned. Welcome back. Heres a look at how we finished the day on wall street. Some pretty strong gains again, just like we saw yesterday. The dow up 140. The s p 17. The nasdaq 28. And crude oil was up almost 6 . Now, under armour holding its First Investor day in more than two years. Our sara eisen is down in baltimore at the companys headquarters with some details for us now. Hi, sara. Hi. Ive got some news for you, kelly. The mvp of the nba, Stephen Curry, is in the room with me at the Investor Presentation and he is about to announce that he has extended his contract with under armour for another seven years. It will go through 2024. So basically, the entirety of his career. And youll hear this only here first. It includes equity in under armour. This follows the model of tom brady, also an under armoursponsored player who has equity in the stock of under armour. We dont know how much. But obviously this is part of the big deal. Also to be announced in just a few moments, the next version of Stephen Currys shoes for under armour, curry 2, which look like this, will be released in the u. S. On october 23 24th. They actually released them already in china. Stephen curry and ceo kevin plank were just on a fiveday trip to asia, where they have been promoting these new shoes, these new basketball shoes, set to hit the u. S. At the end of october for holiday season. This is all part of under armours growth strategy. Very much hyped and very wellplaying athletes that they have. I mentioned tom brady, Stephen Curry, jordan spieth, part of their strategy to make a dent in some of these sports categories. Now, earlier dade the stock had jumped to a record high on the news that under armours going to hit 7. 5 billion in revenues by 2018. That was an upgrade from what they previously had nunsd which was 10 billion by 2020. So clearly accelerating that topline growth, it was good news for shareholders in this stock. We did have a chance to talk to ceo kevin plank earlier today and it was the first time we got to hear from him after that somewhat controversial stock split where the company was planning to issue new shares with nonvoting rights in order to secure kevin planks leadership and voting power in the company. It was seen as sort of a power play. It did pass by investors. But i asked kevin plank why that was an important move. What we wanted to do is keep the same governance structure that allowed us to enjoy the last ten years of growth we have again. Since our pipo in 2005 weve averaged top and bottom line growth. I think that balanced approach is very important. As long as he continues to deliver those numbers, investors will back him. The only criticism here, kelly, on all of this is the valuation on the stock which has jumped 200 since the last investor day many see as very expensive and priced to perfection if some of these Growth Initiatives dont go as optimistically as forecast. That is International Womens and continued category expansion. And sara, did you put a dollar number on that steph curry contract . No. I dont have the dollar number to report. We will ask him. We have an exclusive interview with Stephen Curry in the 5 00 hour during fast money. I dont expect him to say it, but were going to continue to do that reporting on it. We just know at this point it includes under armour stock. Stay right there. Carol, stephanie, your reaction . I have a quick question for you. First of all, i love kevin plank. Hes a man with a plan whoex koouwho executes. Hes fantastic. Does he view his company as a lifestyle brand, as an emerging tech play with all the Tech Development theyre doing in monitoring fitness . Did he talk about that at all . Because that sort of plays in the valuation discussion. You get one set of valuations if youre a consumer lifestyle brand, possibly another if youre really more of a technology company. He did talk about it, and its a good question because it was one of the top investor questions going into that. And that is theyve seen under armour make a number of pretty small acquisitions adding up to almost a billion dollars in the last year or two. And the question was what is the vision for this, what is the plan for Digital Strategy, what under armour calls connected fitness. He talked about it and he actually revealed they have more than 150 Million People signed up for their apps, these various apps that they have acquired over fitness where they track everything from how you sleep to how you exercise to how eat. Theyre collecting data on this, and they do expect it to be a driver of revenue. Only 200 million, though, by 2018. Its a small dent and a small percentage but according to plank it was all about the data they were collecting and how theyre going to continue to transform that. So i think he would say it is a lifestyle brand, theyre make a real dent in footwear as well. Unlike nike, they started in apparel. Nike started in sneakers and went on further. But one point they are distinguishing themselves in, guys, is this whole Digital Strategy or connected fitness. And steph, is any price too high to pay for this steph your and how do you feel about the stock in general . I think theyre signing up the hot athletes for sure. I think getting back to the connected fitness commentary i think youre seeing the company being able to therefore price higher and you have seen the average prices go up. Their Gross Margins he said he expects to be 49 for years. Theres a very good chance, hes pretty conservative, theres a very good chance theyre going to beat on all the numbers he just laid out. Margins are the thing i think will really surprise people. Therefore, profitability can ghoe higher. Its expensive. You cant buy a stock the like this at 70 times forward estimates but i appreciate the growth, the management team. And if this thing ever pulled back. In august people bought it at 90 and theyre really happy today. Sara, we look forward of course to hearing from the other steph next hour as well. So some big news there. Thank you for bringing it to us and a great day down in baltimore. Thats our sara eisen. Carly fiorina in the spotlight tonight as she comes face to face in the gop debate with frontrunner donald trump, who has lobbed less than flattering comments at her on the campaign trail. Shes had to defend herself before as a former chief xek executive of hewlettpackard. Well find out how those two experiences compare, next. And a super food goes super high tech, later. How a california restaurant could change the fast food job market one quinoa bowl at a time. Take ted here. Im pulling together data he shared from his wearables, Health Records and family history, so we can analyze it. Hes doing everything right. For the most part. No pain, no gain. You are a beast, ted. My name is watson. How can i help you . Everyone loves the picture i posted of you. At t reminds you it can wait. vo wit runs on optimism. Un on . Its what sparks ideas. Moves the world forward. Invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. Who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected and the conviction to be in it for the long term. Oppenheimerfunds believes thats the right way to invest. In this big, bold, beautiful world. Lets begin here with dominic chu and another earnings alert. Hi, dom. Kelly, lets talk about some highend office furniture. This is herman miller. Its up about 7 on 8,300 shares of volume. Relatively Light Trading after hours. Still though the shares rupp after the Company Announced earnings of 56 cents a share. That beats the average analyst estimate of 46 cents. Revenues also come in better, 565 million. Analysts were looking for 554 million. They also offered strong Current Quarter Earnings Guidance again. So again, earnings beats, sales beat, stronger Earnings Guidance, and those shares are again up by 7 on light volume. We will also point out that year to date the shares are down 5 over the last 12 months theyre down 8 but still interesting take on the furniture market on the highend office market. Back over to you. That is for sure. Many stories in the making there, dom. Our dominic chu. The second gop president ial debate hits primetime tonight. Recent comments by donald trump have put former hewlettpackard ceo and president ial candidate Carly Fiorina in the spotlight. Our john harwood sat down with her and discussed her battle with cancer, losing her stepdaughter to addiction, and how those tragedies have affected her. John . Kelly, you know, Carly Fiorina said that there are a lot of similarities between the job of ceo and the job of president and how the decision thats you make affect ordinary peoples lives. But she also has similarities to one prominent democrat thinking about the race. Thats Vice President joe biden, who has undergone just like Carly Fiorina has serious personal tragedies during a political career. Heres Carly Fiorina with that. Battling cancer was very tough. And its a family battle. Losing our daughter from addictions was even tougher. Life is about Going Forward. Always. So many people said to me you have to run for president , you have the kind of leadership you need. So im not doing it to overcome anything. Im hearing a little bit of what joe bidens going through right now. Oh, i feel very deeply for the Vice President because i know what it is to lose a child. And joe biden is a man whos been through multiple tragedies in his life. I mean, i cant imagine the heartbreak of losing a wife and a daughter in an automobile crash and how close he and his sons must be and then to lose a son. I cant imagine. I have great empathy for him. So you see a lot of emotion from Carly Fiorina there, but youre also going to see a different kind of emotion tonight because she indicated shes going to go hard after donald trump. Donald trump said after Carly Fiorina she was viciously attacked at hewlettpackard. Hes mocked her appearance and her voice. She said hes going to be hearing a lot from me tonight. And in particular if you declare bankruptcy four times it either shows lack of judgment or lack of discipline, kelly. Thats what she said about donald trump, john . Thats right. Still just absorbing comments she made and how much both she and joe biden have been through. This is a side of Carly Fiorina i dont think a lot of us are used to seeing. No. And honestly, it is very difficult for me to imagine how tough it must have been for Carly Fiorina having been fired in a highprofile way at hewlettpackard in 2005, then returning to the stage in 2008 to campaign for john mccain, try to pick herself up and do Something Different and the very next year being diagnosed with breast cancer, having surgery, having chemo, losing all her hair, jumping into the race against bore bra boxer in 2010 nevertheless for a senate seat. She lost but she kept going, and shes doing it for the president ial race now. A lot to admire in her fortitude and resilience, kelly. For sure. And thats the latest, john. Your excellent speakeasy series. Thank you so much for showing us more you bet. Other sides of these candidates. Our john harwood. If quinoa is a next Generation Food it calls for a next generation restaurant. Eatsa is a restaurant in San Francisco thats hightech on an old concept, the automat. Its the focus of todays spark, and thats next. And well be covering all things fed starting with the decision tomorrow at 2 00 p. M. Well have chair yellens press conference live. Well have coverage of heavy hitters like sheila bair and randy kroszner. You wont want to miss it all on closing bell tomorrow. At t and directv are now one. Which means you can watch movies while youre on the move. Sitcoms, while you sit on those. And even fargo, in fargo binge, while you lose weight and enjoy a good cliffhanger while you hang from a. Why am i yelling . The revolution will not only be televised. The revolution will be mobilized. Introducing the all in one plan. Only from directv and at t. New david freeberg. Welcome to you, david. Hi, thanks for having me. So how many actual humans are in this particular store. There are people that help to prepare and make the bowls but by automating what they do, we have ipads back there to instruct them on how to operate at about three times the throughput of a typical fast casual or fast food restaurant. So i would love to give people an example. So give us in a typical hour, what does that mean for you for a typical day . We currently have a throughput capacity a little over 300 and were approaching 500 meals served per hour. So we have a fully automated front of house experience so a user goes up to a kiosk and order the food they want on an ipad and there is a cubby the food is delivered through and users in the next couple of weeks can order on the mobile app. And the food is prepared in the back. And so we try to increase the efficiency and the throughput of the restaurant. Ultimately this means a lower cost of healthy food for the consumer. So rather than spending 14, 15, you can get a meal for 6. Before i bring in the panel, david, how many workers do you think youve replaced in the front of these stores, so to speak, in front of this restaurant, by using ipads instead . You know, um, you go into a starbucks and you have one person working at the counter and two people in the back making coffee so it is as if weve taken the one person in the counter and moved them to the back and youve increased your throughput by 50 . It is not as if weve eliminated jobs, weve used software and hardware to increase the throughput and as a result make healthy food accessible to the masses. My starbucks has a lot of people behind the counter. That is in new york. This is carol roth. I started my career in the restaurant sector so im curious about Unit Economics when i think about a fast casual concept. Youre looking at high 20s or 30s for the food costs. Now you take the people out of the equation, how does that impact the Unit Economics of every restaurant . Well we probably look at a similar net margin on a per unit served basis but our volume is much higher. Because our throughput can reach 500 meals per hour and there is technology in how you make the food delicious but we can deliver a higher volume and a lower dollar value per unit and we can produce greater profit per store than a casual operation. Stef . What do you think the peek through put, and is it scaleable. Once you do it well in one store, is it easy to replication in terms of not having that much in operating costs. It is a great question. We dont think about developing a store. We think about developing modules within the store. So we have a food delivery module and ordering and other module, so we can meet the throughput demand. Our objective is to have customers get in and out in 90 seconds so we can build the number of assembling stations and order stations to meet the objective based on what we project the demand to be within that particular area. David, you are destroying jobs and killing the economy. What do you say about all of that . Yeah, i think the more Important Message that we want to deliver is were making healthy food accessible. So it is not like were doing this we set out to build the business to mean quinoa a more accessible product and make it affordable to the masses in an affordable concept and lets start to automate things and to make it cheaper and deliver a lower price product and we still employee anybody per foot on a fast casual in the neighborhood but we have higher volume and throughput. So i would argue against it. You wont attract the lennonites just yet. But we appreciate that. We hear a lot of that in silicon valley, by the way. Yes you do. Behind the scenes, still plenty of people. David, thank you. Chairman of the board at eatsa. Check out the spark for much more on this. And bud light and miller lite has separated customers but now that is changing. Well bring you the details next. You are watching cnbc, the first in business worldwide. Awe believe active management can protect capital long term. Active management can tap global insights. Active management can take calculated risks. Active management can seek to outperform. Because active Investment Management isnt reactive. Its active. Thats the power of active management. Sometimes they just drop in. Always obvious. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back. We have a news alert on jeff gun lock. Sue herera, what can you tell us. Mr. Herlock is saying he likes bounds now as yields have climbed. They moved higher. He said the market to watch out for after the fed meeting is the junk bond sector which he said should rally if the fed does not raise rates. Of course, hes a very influential bond market investor and seen huge inflows into his funds recently and you can hear more from him tomorrow because hell join scott on the fast Halftime Report at 12 30 p. M. Tomorrow. It is an exclusive. Scott and jeff talk frequently. We will join scott and the team tomorrow. Great job. Big news there. Well look forward to more of his remarks tomorrow. Thank you, sue. The deal that could create the Biggest Beer Company in the world. It is anheuserbusch looking to buy sab miller. Despite the concerns, shares are surging, to 22 for miller and 6 or 7 for anheuserbusch, inbev. Carol, what do you think . I think this will pass. My husband is a drinker and investment banker and he thinks the poor execution of the company in the declined market share means it should be able to pass, spaerktly with kraft taking off the way it is. They are 21 interest in sab and they have to get their approval. That is why we love you. Carol and stef yn a. Thank you both. That does it for closing bell. Fast money starts in a moment. The ceo of therapeutics targeted the patents of this company and got handed a victory and the ceo will come on and respond to kyle bass allegations. High stakes. Straight over to you. Fast money starts right now. Live from the nasdaq markets, overlooking time square. And this is melissa lee. Tonight on fast, were less than 24 hours away from the biggest fed decision in years and if the fed does not raise rates well tell you where black rock is putting the money to work. And carl bass and the ceo of that company is ready to speak on take on bass. He joins us for a first interview. But first to the biggest move in the markets today. That would be crude oil. Soaring. Setting up 6 on the day. Price getting a boost on the