Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150402

Special coverage and well have full Team Coverage over the next two hours here, bill, to talk about a lot of the market expectations. Weve seen a lot of numbers to the high side of course. Then we saw that disappointing adp jobs report today. So a lot of back and forth. Strong jobless claims. So many cross currents to work through. Of course, the story weve been following for the last couple of hours, deal or no deal . Depends on who you ask right now. Word that iran and the five world powers in those negotiations led by the u. S. In switzerland have reached an understanding that will get us to a deal by june 30th. Oil is lower on the news. Well figure out what the announcement really means. Plus well hear what president obama had to say about this development coming up a little bit here. Were also starting to hear from israel right now as well. Heres where markets stand. Well start with stocks then should talk about oil obviously. The dow is up 59 points today. A similar gain across the dow and the broad s p 500 up about a third of a percent. The s p adding sevening points. The nasdaq is struggling to stay positive today. 48. 84 is its level at the moment. Lets get to our closing bell exchange. Danny hughes from Divine Capital is with us today. Larry mcdonald from sockgen. Mark from russell investments. Jim lowell from advisers investment. Rick san telltelli joins us as well. Oils if we believe the wisdom that a deal with iran pushes the price lower since were going to bring more oil on to the market from iran, is that good or bad for the u. S. Equity market do you think . I think its a net positive. Theres a region in this country, the oil belt will suffer a bit more. Overall for a consumerdriven economy to be able to sustain these kinds of lower prices i think will provide the impetus for consumers to spend more. Their income is rising their savings is rising. We know from this weeks spending report it was a little bit disappointing. Thats like compressing a spring. Consumers are impatient. As long as purchasing power thanks to low inflation remains good spending power remains elevated due to lower oil prices, i think its a boone. Danni, where do you think oil is heading and how significant is it that the trade deficit due to the drop were seeing is at its lowest since 2009 . Its interesting to see, kelly. Oil has a little way to go. The consumer is the beneficiary of the market. Jobs growth. Jobless claims are down. Interest rates are still staying low. Thats about it. Pretty much every other metric that you see, you know, retail clocking in three straight months of downward declines Manufacturing Index down five months. Its a little bit of a conundrum for u. S. Business. If youre a consumer youre in great shape. If youre an investor, not so great. If youre both youre basically bipolar right now. The other story were watching and well know more tomorrow, mark of course the jobs report. Now, the jobless claims this morning came in lower than expected. Adps jobs report was lower than expected the day before which was not good. Expectations for tomorrows report have been coming down. Where do you stand right now . What are you expecting to happen . Our numbers are around 220,000 for tomorrow. A little bit lower. 230 to 240 on average for the year. Were a little bit lower tomorrow. I think the focus may not be necessarily on the number though. As long as its around 200,000, thats what people are going to expect. Its about the wage information that i think is embedded in the report. Thats what people are going to look at. We know wages are moving up on the lower end. Walmart took care of that. Many followed. Mcdonalds being the recent one. Any news about wages, thats what i think is going to be what people are going to read in on as far as when the fed will move. I think, again, the jobs might be the secondary news tomorrow in the report to the wage information. Larry, what do you make im still thinking about the big miss yesterday morning on the pmi number. The manufacturing gauge. You know, that declines and a lot of folks look to that as a leading inging indicator for the economy and stock market. What do you think . True, kelly. A hot number tomorrow in the jobs number with the lower oil sets up for some really interesting Systemic Risk issues. If you look at currency, Interest Rate and Oil Volatility the spread between those three and equity volatility is extremely wide. You have elevated volatility in currency rates and oil and lower vom till volatility in equities. That smells like trouble to me. The move down in oil over the last six months three months in particular, lower moves in oil have interrupted u. S. Equity realities. By the way, larry, if memory serves i saw a headline this week that says sockgen believes the fed will raise rates twice this year. Heres a loaded question. Do you agree with your employer . Bill i love you. I will say, yes, i agree. In a perfect world. But i would say if you look at just the u. S. Economy, we got a chance, very good chance for two hikes. But if you look at the systemic issues that are tied to oil and the dollar that could knock the fed off the train. Rickster what do you think about oil and this deal with iran . Reporter you know i think it you always follow the money. I dont want to weigh in on three minutes until midnight on the doomsday clock. When you look at all the countries that have to go along with this, theyre dying to do trade with iran. Thats my take on it. I thought oil would be down more considering how many tankers and bathtubs are filled with iranian Oil Everybody seems to want to put onto the marketplace. I want to address one thing. You brought up a great point about todays trade balance which was the smallest deficit since the Fourth Quarter of 2009. Three things. First of all, whether you like it or not, that will raise firstquarter gdp couple of tenths. The second thing is you would think a strong dollar would make exports weak, but imports are three times weaker. Even expetroleum than exports. If the fed is truly data dependent, forget our biases about what they should or shouldnt do i think that alone keeps them from any move in 2015. Interesting point rick. Youre saying the trade deficit narrowing is more bad news than good news for u. S. Demand here . Yes, absolutely. Eximports expetroleum for down. Exprts down 1. 6. Dani hughes where are you going to make money in the Second Quarter . Were being pretty cautious. Look at equity revisions down for earnings this coming quarter. Its been a huge slope downward. Thats a big concern. That has to do with everything with the dollar with oil, impacting the u. S. Economy. So where do you look . And i know i sound like a broken record, but i love dividend paying stocks. I think that you know, thats the place to stay when youre not sure whats going to happen you have to have that longterm view and youre getting paid to wait. Mark, are you guys also overweight dividend stocks . How might a fed height yeah, we have been in the past. Were a little many rore moving away from defense. Consumer staples have a good part of that space. Theyve done so well. Our allocation is more nonu. S. Versus u. S. The whole conversation weve had about Energy Impacts us in a positive way i agree. It really helps europe and japan and big developed markets around the world. We think non u. S. Versus u. S. For the rest of the year is a better play in a multiasset portfolio and utilities and staples are pretty rich in value. We would shy away from those a little bit and move more toward nonu. S. Sell them to dani shed be happy to buy them here. There you go. Thats what makes a market. Jim, you have liked europe and japan. You mentioned that in the past. Europe has had such a great run in the First Quarter. They far outperformed the u. S. Markets here. Time for a pause. I know im sounding its the guessing game weve been playing about the u. S. Market for the last five years. Do you think well see a pause . Or do you want to put money there . We absolutely could see a pause. Id still be putting money there. We like europe and japan, especially japan mid and smaller companies. We think the stimulus measures put if place in europe creates enough of a safety net for investors to begin to take risks over there. We also think that its best to do it in the hands of an active manager with a proven track record. We like ted weiss at Fidelity International growth is the to play both of those markets well. Thats as specific as it gets. Exactly. Larry, where are you going to make money in the Second Quarter . Well, the Second Quarter really depends on the dollar. The dollar train, its been a very powerful move. And theres so many trades around the world that are tied to the dollar. So theres a number of sectors and emerging markets that have been annihilated in the First Quarter relative to the dollars move. So we could see a reversion to the mean there. Which way is it going, though, larry, before we go . Do you think the strong dollar trend on the back of trade numbers and everything reasserts itself or instead weak data do we see a weak dollar return in the Second Quarter . Well if you look at just the u. S. Economic data relative to the world, it points to the strong dollar trade. But the things behind the scene that are concerning the fed, once again, i think from our friends in washington, acg analytics tell us, that the fed is very concerned about the move in the dollar. So at some point they start to talk the dollar down or they start to contain it and recent language from the fed, thats what weve seen. All right. Folks, thank you all. Have a good long holiday weekend. Appreciate your thoughts as always on the markets. See you later. Thank you so much. A oo50 minutes to go here. You can hear the whoopwhoops going. We usually hear them. Before a long holiday weekend. Its only about 3 10 eastern. Right now a dow up 57 points. The s p adding seven. The nasdaq again, the lagger today up about five. Keeping a close eye on oil prices here. Yes, oil volatile today getting back some of yesterdays gains on news of this framework for a nuclear deal with iran. The pros will be weighing in on where oil prices go from here. Also ahead, jobs jobs jobs. All eyes on the employment report due out first thing tomorrow morning. Our Steve Liesman tells us how scary things could get next. And later, Mohamed Elerian will give us his take on the jobs report and the impact it could have on treasuries and when the fed pulls the trigger on Interest Rate hikes. Always look forward to talking to mohamed. Thats coming up on closing bell. Let me talk to you about retirement. 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With a signature. Legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. And were here to help start yours. Slightly positive day for equityies here in the u. S. With the dow up 46 points. Hasnt been a very volatile day. No. Really. I think it is feeling like a day before big number. We got the jobs number coming out tomorrow. Well talk about that in a moment. The s p up five. The nasdaq up three. I want to show you how the 500 stocks are doing in the s p 500. And even for such a slight up day, we have a lot more stocks green than red today. Thats for sure. Watch oil here closely as well. As bill mentioned the market will be closed tomorrow for good friday. Thats not stopping the Labor Department from releasing the march jobs report at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. Cnbc will bring you the jobs number they second they hit the tape and instant analysis from the pros. Tune in tomorrow morning for special coverage. Steve leaseiesman joins us to take us through what to watch for in the report. Reporter the worry about tomorrows number is if it follows a weaker trend of data and ends up disappointing. Heres what everybody is expecting 248 is the number. If that happens, folks, it will be the 13th month in a row above 200,000. Thats a pretty good streak right there. Unemployment seem unchanged. Watching the average hourly wages, 0. 2 compared to 0. 1 in the prior month. But just when it looked like growth clearly softened along come three data points just in the past 24 hours to muddy the picture a little bit, want to show you what they were. Auto sales beating expectations. The trade deficit youre talking about that thats a positive for growth, whether or not it was infected by the port. Well have to see jobless claims also. Really low numbers there. 268,000. Heres some of the commentary im reading before the report comes in. We cant keep getting reports like this showing current labor Market Conditions are at full employment and have the fed maintain that there is something wrong out there in the economy, thats bank of coketokyo. The fed continues with the mantra that there remains slack in the labor market but these data suggest that any such slack is evaporating quickly. Another from morgan stanley. Guys, ill tell you what my number is. I ran the model and its a meager 200,000. Oh, he comes a meager . How spoiled have we gotten . I know. I think thats right, kelly. Thats a time when we really aspired to that number there. I have to tell you, my error rate has gone up the past threw months. Each one of the numbers we had has come in 50,000 above where the model is. It ran really good for about a year. The fast four months its been off the charts. In terms of my model undershooting how strong the job markets we like that trend. Stay there. Lets talk about it. We bring in meagan green, chief economist at john hancock. Whats your expectation for the headline number . I think it could be around 250,000. To be honest, ill be looking through the headline matter. Because you want im looking wage growth. Yeah, i want to see how much wage pressure weve been getting. Do you expect to see some . I dont. In addition to bad Economic Indicators lately we have a global glut of labor. Meagan do you look its interesting if we keep adding jobs the aggregate income labor goes up. Does that at some point matter or are you wanting to see wage growth specifically pick up . Does that distinction make any sense . Yeah eventually you think it would start to feed through into the wage data. It hasnt so far. Id like to see it picking up in its own right. As long as we have billions of workers coming online in the emerging markets, i dont see why we would see wage growth pushing in. If we dont have wage growth pressures, we wont have upward pressure on what do you think steve . Im not talking to megan. She says it doesnt matter. Im coming in tomorrow at 6 00 in the morning to be on a special show were having. Megan, take that back and ill tell you what i think. Megan and are getting up at 6 00 to watch. You better be. I think thats right. Theres a lot more slack in the labor market than the official unemployment numbers would suggest. What i keep saying is this general economic concept. Dont say somebodys not going to do something until you tell me the price theyre not going to do it at. What i mean by that is right now at the current wage level, thats been low enough to keep certain people on the sidelines. A little upward tick. I dont know if mcdonnells and t. J. Maxx, whats happening with target is enough to bring some people back in but at a higher price, you will take at least some people who have sidelined themselves and bring them back into the labor force. What about some of the wage hikes were seeing in corporate america, megan . Do you think that will have a positive effect . I think its great pr. Sort of on the fringe, isnt it . Thats right. It will help on the margin. How long before we start to see meaningful wage growth though . I think it could be another 6 to 12 months so in my view i think the fed should hold out to start hiking rates and should and will are totally different things. I think theyll end up hiking at the end of this year out of compulsion to do something. I really think they should wait until 2016. Can i tell you some of the implications of what meagan is talking about . Tell me if im wrong here. Youre saying the fed should allow the Unemployment Rate to drift down. Its a bit like one of those guys staying dont shoot until you see the whites of their eyes. Let the number get down 5. 1. Could you imagine a sub 5 Unemployment Rate with the fed not hiking rates . I could, actually. I mean, the fed has redefined its definition of full employment twice now. They may well have to do it again, so i could see us getting sub 5 unemployment before they start when those numbers come down bill, the pressure on the Federal Reserve is going to be enormous for them to hike. It already is enormous at this point, but can you imagine that they will ever get the perfect scenario that theyre looking for with unemployment down to where they want it to be and Inflation Expectations up to where they want it to be all at the same time . Its difficult to see, to be honest. Heres a really scary statistic. If you take u. S. Price data and employ the eurozones methodology for actually calculating inflation, the u. S. Is in deflation already. That cpi . Cpi. Already people are freaked out about the eurozone being in deflation. According to the same methodology the u. S. Is that because of difference in shelter cost . Its the housing prices that are taken out. Wow. Steve, thats an interesting inging way to look at it. I love hanging around until 3 20 and learning something. Thats an awesome statistic, megan. Exactly. Thats great. Lets remind people there was a period of time right after the financial crisis we thought this economy wasnt going to add more than 110,000 jobs a month. Youre so right. Were doubling the pace. We have for months. I just wonder, again, what that means how much trust we should place in these models. Well, i think im not the only one whose model has been undershooting whats been going on. There was a big miss of 200,000, almost 200,000 in the consensus in november. I think what you have is a little bit of disjointedness between the underlying level of growth and the level of jobs right there. That means productivity has gone down. Thats a problem for a whole bunch of reasons, but right now im a little bit more optimistic about wages than megan. I think were on the cusp. When we start seeing the lower income getting wage increases, i dont know if its pr i think its more than that. I think maybe we could be in the age of the wage hike. All right. Thank you, both. Megan, good to see you. Thank you for joining us. Steve, well heatlet you wind your alarm clock and get ready for the special tomorrow. Lets talk about it. No holiday for our friends at squawk box tomorrow morning. Theyll bring you the jobs numbers as soon as they hit the tape at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time tomorrow morning. Join us for the special cnbc coverage on jobs in america. Wouldnt miss it. 40 minutes to go here intountil the close. Theres the nasdaq struggling to stay positive as we close at out the week here because of good friday. Its up 2 1 2 points. Can you tell its a day before a threeday holiday at the Stock Exchange . Oil prices getting back yesterdays gains. As the outline, at least, for a nuclear deal with iran has been reached in the last couple hours. The pros will give us their reaction especially as it pertains to oil, when we come back. Theres nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. So why pause to take a pill . And why stop what youre doing to find a bathroom . With cialis for daily use, you dont have to plan around either. Its the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be Ready Anytime the moment is right. Plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. 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Their facility will no longer enrich uranium for 15 years. They will only enrich uranium at natanz. Inspect us will have access for 25 years. Centrifuge manufacturing will be frozen and subject to continuous surveillance and both in exchange for all of that, in it is verified coming to an agreement by june 30th so lots of caveats. The u. S. And the eu will lift their nuclearrelated sanctions or suspend them after verifications. The president of the United States barack obama, called this a historic moment in a speech in the rose garden. It is a good deal. A deal that meets our core objectives. This framework would cut off every pathway that iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon. Next we see if his critics in the congress agree. Thats going to whenbe a key step. Guy, back to you. Michelle, thank you very much. Lets talk about the kind of Economic Impact the deal could have especially on oil prices. Swroinjoining us dennis gartman, editor of the gartman ledder and cnbc analyst, the Founder Partner of again capital. And, john, still to be determined i guess is how soon as part of this deal iran will be able to sell their oil. I mean theyve wanted to do this from day one. But theres been pressure to delay releasing some of that oil down the road until theres more confirmation on what theyre doing with their Nuclear Capabilities here. Right. And under the 2013 regime that got all this started, that eded they have been able to start selling some of their oil. Their asian buyers in particular, china, south korea japan, have been aggressive in buying the iranian grade of crude oil. Theyre favorable toward it. Theyre going to continue to be aggressive and stunep up to buy the oil. This is going to have another tremendous downward push for oil prices once it becomes realized that this oil is going to get sold fairly rapidly and i think today marks the end, or near the end of this coalition in the coming months because its over if the congress submarines this deal. I think the rest of the world is going to move on without us and normalize relations with iran. Okay. Dennis, we had just been seeing more discussion, coverage of people going long oil again as you heard from john are we now going to interrupt that trend and see another downward push in prices here . Well i think kelly, what we may end up seeing is for the next month or two before june when we are supposed to sign this agreement, the sanction shall be lifted you may get strength in the crude oil market and may actually see may wti get strong relative to the back months which is unusual in the present environment. Because theres still going to be a huge amount of crude oil coming out once we get past june, youre going to see new lows of crude oil because the iranians are going to be extraordinarily aggressive in selling. They have no choice. The saudis clearly are not going to like this. Theyre going to make certain that they defend their market share. Theyre going to put crude oil pressure on crude oil prices. But between now and june you may actually see the front months wti strengthen up simply because it knows the market will know there will be plenty of crude after june. There may be less supply before june. That may well be the interesting circumstance. John what has kept the price up, anyway . Even as we know, theres a glut of oil out there right now. Well, when you get a mix of headlines that have saudi arabia and oil and saudis running together and strait of hormuz concern, that gets a lot of casual observers trying to trade on event risk type of situation. We saw a lot of the premium coming out of the market bill as quickly when you realize shat saudi production is way far away from the conflict and theres plenty of naval assets out there to keep the strait of hormuz and the suez canal, excuse me open. But also i would point out, and to dennis point, were going to start to see strength in u. S. Oil demand and the gasoline demand has been strong. This weeks report showed us 9 Million Barrels per day of consumption, thats relatively high. I think youre seeing a response at the pump to the relatively cheap prices. Real quickly, dennis, before we go if this deal falls apart, does that mean Oil Prices Start to move back up . Its possible, kelly. That certainly could be a circumstance that would prevail. The only trade i see out there, ill talk about this before and talk about it again, i think you want to own tankers. Im not sure whether i want to be long of crude oil, short of crude oil, spread of crude oil. I know a lot of crude oil is going to be out there going into storage, filling up in cushing and the gulf and if you take a look at tanker stocks its been one of the strongest areas of any stock market in the world. Thats the only thing im certain of at this point. All right. Good to see you guys both. Thanks. Have a good long weekend. Thank you. Good holiday. Thank you for having us. 30 minutes to go here. The whoopwhoops youre hearing behind us to mark the fact we have a long weekend coming up were going to squeeze in a jobs report tomorrow morning. Markets will close here for 30 minutes and not reopen until monday. With tlathat said, were seeing gains a third of a percent. The dow and the nasdaq just barely positive. Up next, a story weve been following this week. Mcdonalds joining the bandwagon of companies raising hourly wages. Is the fast food giant doing enough . Kate rogers has details on the mcdonalds plans plus the pros will hash it out when we come back. 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For some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. Which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. Our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. Start investing with as little as fifty dollars. Generally a positive day, but lets face it quiet day as we get ready for the jobs number tomorrow morning. The dow up 59 points right now. The s p up six and the nasdaq up about four points right now. Theres a look at the dow heat map. Weve seen the s p already. Yes, we have. Now heres a look. We have about six names in the red today. They include goldman, microsoft, mcdonalds which were going to focus in on in a second. The outperformers. Its a mixed bag. Home depot, utx as mentioned, some of the stronger players today. Mcdonalds announcing plans to raise the minimum wage for workers at restaurants it owns directly. Kate rogers join us with the details. Hi, kate. Reporter hi, kelly and bill. Thats right. Mcdonalds moved to raise its minimum wage to an average of 10 an hour by the end of 2016, they join the ranks of target walmart, t. J. Maxx and the gap in raising the minimum wage. For some people its not enough. Heres why. The wage hike only applies to mcdonalds corporate locations which are 10 of its more than 14,000 Stores Across the country. The remaining 90 are owned by independent franchisees who are able to set their own wage rates. Fast food protesters think this move is not enough. The fight for 15 movement which kicked off in 2012 targeted mcdonalds over the last several years. Protests picked up again in select cities across the country. Mcdonalds new president and ceo says this is just one of his first moves as a new leader and that the company is going to continue to evaluate wages and benefits for its workers going forward. Kelly and bill back over to you. Kate, thank you very much. Mcdomdnaldcdonalds workers say the new wage hikes arent enough. Higher wages are good for some but others will face job loss. Lets talk about it. Kendall is back with us organizing director for the fight for 15. Michael salzman is Research Director at the employment policies institute. Good to see both of you. Kendall, im going to bet youre going to say this is not enough. Lets look at the facts here. Fact number one is the only reason mcdonalds raised the wages is because mcdonalds workers have gone on strike the last few years. Point number two i would say is 10 of the workers are affected so thats over 650,000 mcdonalds workers here in the u. S. That will not receive a raise. 1. 6 million around the world that will not receive a raise. Point number three i would say is theres still a billion dollar price tag that taxpayers are picking up because mcdonalds is forcing their employees on to public assistance. Americans are saying thats unreasonable at this point. Kendall, the new Ceo Steve Easterbrook took fullpage ads out in the newspaper today saying im a new ceo, a new mcdonalds, a new culture, im doing wage hikes, were going to offer education assistance. Do you believe hes going to move the company in the kind of direction youd like to see it or do you think its all just talk . I think its a pr stunt. What he needs to do is sit down with brooks who i met a couple weeks ago who works at a corporate mcdonalds. She makes 7. 25. Now shes going to make 8. 25. Still not be able to feed her kids and clothe them and keep a roof over their head. Michael, what do you make of this . Well, i mean i think the seiu would know a thing or two about a pr stunt. Theyve spent the last couple years plowing tens of millions of dollars into orchestrating this faux grassroots pr campaign. Its essentially designed to demonize restaurants. I mean, the only thing thats going to be enough for the seiu is when mcdonalds employees are dues paying members of the seiu. The fact were asking this question isnt enough is indicative of how far off base we are in this conversation. Theres a company like mcdonalds creating jobs that decided to raise wages. Theyre doing actually real things to help the employees. Meanwhile, people like the seiu theyre passing unworkable mandates in cities like oakland and san francisco, were seeing that they have real consequences for Small Businesses. So i think its keep ofind of ridiculous to sit here and listen to kendall claiming hes trying to help people out. Hes trying to get more union dues. Ouch. Kendall . The facts speak for themselves. We can sit here and uponpontifficatepontificate. If you talk to Adriana Alvarez who works at mcdonalds in illinois, she cant survive. If you talk to nancy selgato, a mcdonalds worker in chicago, she would be on state assistance. What about his charges that youre spending too much on these efforts . How much is it costing you . What this is about is a 1 billion price tag that taxpayers are picking up because mcdonalds is forcing their employees on to public assistance. Kendall we can sit here and go back and forth one at a time. We can sit here and go back and forth about the reality of the situation is fast food workers are headed into the biggest mobilization of lowwage workers in u. S. History and theyre changing the conversation in this country. Okay. You need to explain hang on a second. Before you guys are picking on each other on this whole thing and making this personal, let me ask you, michael, this is only going to be applicable, this wage increase to 1,500 stores out of the 14,000 that exist in the United States. For mcdonalds. So, i mean just looking at that number by itself isnt this more of a pr stunt than anything else . Do you expect the franchisees is follow the mother ship with this wage increase . Well i think they can depending on the market that theyre in. If a franchisee looks around and makes a decision the corporate level made based on our market we can raise prices enough to offset this. I think may may do it. The fact of the matter is the kind of 15 mandate that the seiu is seeking really isnt workable. Id like someone like kendall felds to sit here and explain to people how an independent operator is supposed to absorb a 60 increase in labor cost and not lose business, not cut staffing levels, not have to aut mate the kinds of jobs that used to be done by employees. That is going to have a direct negative impact on the exact people he claims he needs to help. Let me ask it this way. We know how negotiations work kendall. Youre calling for 15. Will you accept 10 . Thats more than youre getting now. Ever since the beginning of the campaign the workers had two demands, is a15 an hour and right to form a union without retaliation from their employer. Nsttheres no room for compromise . Its no room for compromise. Whats clear workers going on strike the last two years forced the hand of mcdonalds. Mcdonalds said they could not raise wages for any employees and would not. We have 90,000 employees, mmc mcdonald oess employees getting 1 wage. Its meager. They know for sure theyre going to win because they pushed the second largest private employer in the world into doing something they didnt want to do. Those are the facts. Thank you both. I assume youre not going to meet for lunch any time soon. Im always open for lunch, man. Maybe at mcdonalds. Time for a cnbc news update with sue herrera. Iran and the western world powers reached a Framework Agreement on cushing Irans Nuclear program. That will allow further negotiations toward a final agreement. It will include limits on irans enrichment of uranium for ten years. President obama commented from the rose garden. The United States together with our allies and partners has reached a historic understanding with iran. Which if fully implemented will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Gunmen from the Islamic Militant Group Al Shabab stormed a Kenyan University campus killing 147 people. Police and soldiers surrounded that university exchanging gunfire throughout the day. The gunmen were also Holding Christian hostages inside. The u. S. Strongly condemned that attack offering its assistance. A french Prosecutor Says investigators identified body parts from all 150 people on board a germanwings jet that crashed into the french alps. He also said the second black box was found damaged but possibly usable. And new jersey senator Robert Menendez has entered a in the guilty plea a day after indicted on corruption charges. He entered the pleas in front of a federal judge in newark. Yesterday menendez said he will be vindicated and hes not going anywhere anywhere. That is your cnbcs news update this hour. Back to you, billy bill and kelly. Or billy. Either one. Thank you, suze. Youre welcome. The dow is up 70 points as we head to the close. Still to come Mohamed Elerian talking jobs the treasury, stocks and whole lot more. Closing bell is back in two. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. So open an account with schwab. And when a market move affects, say a Cloud Computing stock youre holding, we can help you decide what to do. With tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. So when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out. You can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. You can call me shallow. But, i have a wandering eye. I mean, come on. National gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. I could choose you. Or i could choose her if i like her more. And i do. Oh, the silent treatment. Real mature. So you wanna get out of here . Go national. Go like a pro. Markets strengthening into the close. I havent looked at the numbers. That might be the high of the day i think. Got to be pretty close to it. S ps up nine. How much, joe . We were up 117 points at one time. That must have been when i was coming down here. There you go. Nasdaq up 12. Dominic keeping an eye on movers in the final hours of the trading week. Hi, dom . Were watching shares of the auto dealers on move higher today. Thats after car max reported strong earnings on the heels of better used car sales as well as stronger markets for used cars as well. Auto nation also improved better than anticipated sales. Both stocks at one point hit alltime highs in trading. Took a sharp drop in midday trading. The radio and communications was unable to find a buyer for itself after contacting possible strategic as well as private equity equity candidates according to a report from Bloomberg Citing Sources with knowledge of the matter. A bit of a late day spike. After a reuters report that the Computer Services giant has hired bankers to formulate possible defenses against potential activists investors and that some top shareholders are seeking help from activists investors to help turn things around at the company. This according to people familiar. Ibm did respond in the report by saying it continues to manage for the long term and it executing on its strategy kelly, bill. Back over to you guys. All right. Thank you very much. Let me just say weve had a lot of questions on twitter, whats with the pins and all that . Today is world Autism Awareness day. April is Autism Awareness month. And our old boss bob wright former chairman and ce oo of Nbc Universal, cofounder of autism speak, will ring the bell. We have 12 minutes to go here into the close. As bill mentioned markets now up 90, getting closer to the highs of the day. And as you were saying that just signaled 300 million to buy. Is to the upside as we have a few minutes here. How will stocks cap off this holiday shortened week . Take a closer look coming in just a second here. Mohamed elerian joining kelly in the next hour of the closing bell. Stay tuned. Dont just visit new york. Visit tripadvisor new york. With millions of reviews and the best hotel prices. Book your next trip at tripadvisor. Com today. Anyone have occasional constipation diarrhea, gas, bloating . Yes one Phillips Colon Health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these occasional digestive issues. With 3 types of good bacteria. Live the regular life. Phillips now i can talk. The dow is up 81 points as we head toward the close. As we were saying. And the buying side art cashman was pointing out, the s p up nine and the nasdaq up 13. Certainly certainly hoping to see bob wright. I hope i run into him. Joining us now, independent investment consultant, david, and Austin Graham. Welcome to you both. David, we got its a weird thursday for people to trade, right . Do you want to get exposed, put on positions before or around that jobs number . Or just wait until monday when the dust settles . Kelly i think the week has had china a little bit better pmi. Europe purchasing managers index. A little bit better. Nontear monetary is good. Housing is good. The thing that hasnt happened we led the horse to water but he or she is is not drinking. Personal consumption was up. 1. Retail sales were down. 6. The latest report. So i dont think theres any rush. You got to basically look people in the eye on these corporate earnings reports, and you not only want to hear them talk about the dollar and oil, you want to hear these ceos and cfos talk about capital expenditures. Are they going to lift those as the year goes on . Thats going to determine how the market responds. Austin are you generally buying at these levels or waiting i think the market is obviously handcuffed at the moment. Thats evidenced by the last two days of activity. I think the market today is tell you theyre anticipateing a better number tomorrow. If you couple that with the jobless claims today, a little resolution in the talks with iran. I think the market is telling you does that mean good news is good news . Because in the good old days we might have had a market sell off in anticipation of a tighter fed response. Thats right. I do. I think it is good news is good news. I think if we get i dont think youll see a lot of activity obviously tomorrow, but even into monday we have an okay employment number i think youre going to continue to see this market trend higher. Bill and kelly, something happened this past month of march thats only happened nine times in the last 30 years in the oil market. March closed 10 above its low. The last nine times thats happened in a month, six months later, oils up 15 . A year later, oil is up 52 . Wow. So you want to buy oil . You want to buy oil. Really . Iran Agreement News will drive oil down. Buy oil. Longterm investment. Some of these oil names, bigger ones arent that beaten down relative to where they were when oil was 20 bucks higher. They make money, kelly, as you pointed out, week after week they make money on the low oil price on the refining part of it. They make money on that. Just how minimal the reaction is of oil after the news broke of the deal being reached. Actually it went up. As the news came out. Thats pretty telling. At the end of the day. Interesting. Stay right there. Were going to come back with these two jebtgentlemen. The dow up 83 points. After the bell Mohamed Elerian tells us what to expect from the jobs report tomorrow. Were also going to talk through the treasury markets. Such low levels and a whole lot more. Youre watching cnbcs first in business worldwide. Termined to create new york citys first selfserve frozen yogurt franchise. And now you have 42 locations. The more i put into my business the more i get out of it. 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Were legalzoom, and over the last 10 years, weve helped millions of people protect their families and run their businesses. We have the right people onhand to answer your questions backed by a trusted network of attorneys. So visit us today for legal help you can count on. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Well, a mortgage shouldnt be a problem your credit is in pretty good shape. Pretty good . I know i have a 798 fico score thanks to the tools and help on experian. Com. Kaboom. Well, i just have a few other questions. Chuck, the only other question you need to ask is, what else can you do for me . Ill just take a water. Get your credit swagger on. Become a member of experian credit tracker and find out your fico score powered by experian. Fico scores are used in 90 of credit decisions. Hey, girl. Is it crazy that your soccer trophy is talking to you right now . It kinda is. Its as crazy as you not rolling over your old 401k. Cue the horns. Just harness the confidence it took you to win me and call td ameritrades rollover consultants. Theyll help with the hassle by guiding you through the whole process step by step. And theyll even call your old provider. Its easy. Even she could do it. Whatever, janet. For all the confidence you need td ameritrade. You got this. About three minutes left. This is the oil markets today. This is u. S. Oil. Wti. And when word got out wed been hearing there was going to be an agreement announced and oil was generally moving lower, it hit a bottom before 2 00 eastern time today. Just above 48 a barrel. Then as the news actually came out and we heard from the president of iran, then we heard from secretary of state kerry, we heard from the president , himself, price went up. Interestingly. Came off those lows. Finished down 59 cents. Were trading at 49. 50 right now. As for the stock market today, pretty quiet. I think its pretty clear theyre waiting for that jobs number tomorrow morning. The dow is up 85 points. As we go into the close here. The expectations are for a jobs increase for march of about 240,000, 245,000 jobs for the month. David, Austin Graham still with us. I didnt hear from you. Do you want to buy oil at this level . Or oil stocks . Iminimum, given the iranian news, you found yourself a nice trading range you can certainly buy oil here. What are you expecting on jobs . Going there bill 225,000 jobs is a little gain, however oil, buy some Master Limited partnerships. Theyre flat for the year. Down 7 for the year. And if oil starts to lift be selective and stay with them midstream. Thats where youre going it get yield and price appreciation. Okay. Where else are you going to make money in the Second Quarter . I think the market is telling you youre going to have a good jobs report. That will be the first step of more encouraging economic news. Im an employer, we like transportation stocks in that rebuild. We like Residential Home building as well. Its contrarian to light transports. Theyve been getting slammed here recently. Because of the high dollar and weak economic picture . Were a little contrary to that. We belief thoseve those two sectors will benefit well. You see value . Health care . Health care bill, you can buy. Its been beaten down. Biotech specialespecially. Its indicative of slowing the ism, slowing economy. Our imports were down 4 . The trade balance looked good. It was more the imports being down. Slow weather related as hurt the transports. Buy europe buy japan. Weve said it week after week. Theyre both up 15 and 20 respectively in dollars. Do you care when the fed starts to raise rates . I really dont. Were actually premature on that as well. You expect a june rise . Thats factored in already. You dont think the market responds much when they start to raise rates . Its going to be three, four, five hikes in before the market really begins to take notices. All right. Thank you, both. Have a Great Holiday weekend. Happy easter happy passover week. And to everybody out there as well. Going out on a gain of 77 points. Tomorrow morning 8 30 a. M. Eastern time cnbc with a special report on that jobs number when it comes out. Right now, the closing bell. Our old boss, bob wright. Hell be with kelly coming up here along with Mohamed Elerian on the second hour of closing bell with kelly evans. Have a good weekend, everybody. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. Were already closing the week out here. A new month as april begins. We have the big jobs report coming out tomorrow morning. Ahead of that, stocks having a decent day. The dow up. 117 points. Going out with gain of 63 into the close. Better than a third of a percent. Same for the s p 500. Broad market index adding seven points today. The nasdaq struggling a little bit. Only up about six points. Better than a tenth of a percent. 44. 86 is well above the close that we did see one month today. Joining todays panel to talk about that moves in oil and so much more, Michael Santoli from yahoo finance, david from jeffries and our very own tom fort t. Tim seymour. This was the market anticipating a strong jobs number. You think thats right . I think taking back bets its going to be a weak number. I dont think the treasury market is necessarily positioned for a very strong number tomorrow. A squaring up type action. The s p 500, thats exactly the level the chart folks were looking at because its the uptrend from october. Its basically lets get back to a neutral state and see what the number gives us. What do you think the deal was . Oil and the iran deal or surprised some have been saying at the lack of response frankly in the oil price to this . A think a lot of the price action in the last week has been mostly about position squaring at quarter end. So were going to learn a lot on tuesday. Everybodys back. New positions go on. New fiscal year in japan. Lot of new things to think about. Its hard to read a lot into price action for me. This past week. Because youve had such big moves in the dollar. What about Interest Rates . Such big moves in european stocks. We started out obviously focused on stocks. You have to look another whatt what happened in Interest Rates after the disappointing manufacturing report yesterday morning, that was a big move. Last week we had these periods where the stock market was going down and the bond market was going down. Right. It was confusing everybody. Right. So, again i think reading too much into it might be a mistake. I think this is a lot of what you were talking about. Position squaring quarter end. Fair enough. John, what signals are you gleaning out there in this market . Not a lot. Its kind of a week where things are bumping around. Today we didnt have a tripledigit move on the dow. Next week not a lot of significant earnings. Week after that weve got things like intel. I think the data is important. Thats why people are anticipating tomorrow so much. Its a little bit of a bummer i guess that most people are going to be off. The traders are going to be off during that day. You can clearly expect that to fuel whatever story people are telling, heading into next week. As the trading starts then. Tim seymour, are you going to trade the number tomorrow . Im going to be hiding easter eggs, kelly. What can i tell you . I tell you what, i think the market is going to be prepared for a number thats somewhere up the middle here frankly. I think when people were talking about the number mike talked about on the weaker side other guys on the stronger side. If you look at the long end of the curve, were probably 35 off of what is the recent top. I think well probably trade up to there. I dont think you jump in and trade the number tomorrow. I think what youre seeing in markets a lot of reversion trades are what people are putting on. The euro was oversold no matter what you say, even if you think fundamentally were moving higher on dollar. Emerging markets today. Outperformance over the last couple days. People are getting comfortable with the fed and possibly a june move which i think they have to two do. Therefore i dont know that tomorrows number is going to be as poshtsimportant as people think. Im wondering about wages. This came up last hour. People saying because of whats happening in emerging markets, people going overseas for the labor force. At the same time you have walmart and mcdonalds raising rages for the lowest end workers when unemployment hit the levels in the past. Youve are they doing that because they feel pressure i feel like theres a drum roll over to david. What say ye . If you think about the move in the dollar index which has been spectacular in the last year, well over 10 , more like 15 , and what weve seen against the euro and some of the other even asia currencies our wages have actually gone up a lot. Well, okay. If youre buying like you know, goods in australia or something. Same job, move it to singapore. Same job, move it it doesnt matter if im not buying anything in singapore. If im sitting a company, fine a company deciding should i hire dave in new york or hire somebody that looks like dave in singapore . Do you think thats why our job growth has taller and shorter, probably. Continued to surprise up to upside . Is that what youre saying is. Thats why wages confound us in terms of in this part of Business Cycle why are we not seeing that upswing . Were getting the dollar strength. I tie a lot of everything thats going on to me centers on dollar. Youre saying the opposite of what i thought. Youre saying because the u. S. Dollar is Stronger Companies are choosing to hire overseas instead . We look expensive. Our capital look expensive. Our labor looks expensive. Why is the dax up 15 and the s p is unchanged . Suspectisnt there a countereffect, business has been relatively stronger. If youre going to put Service Workers somewhere, youre going to do it here . Again, i think thats fair. Weve been on the strong path for five years. Things have gone pretty well. We havent seen a lot of wage gains. Youre starting to see the qe come into europe. What we learned with that in five years in the u. S. Is thats pretty good news from a growth perspective. So where am i going to go make my next investment . In the place with a tail wind. Purchasing power of those same dollars has gone up if you buy imported stuff. Absolutely. It doesnt feel like it, but if youre a walmart and why are we buying imported stuff . You saw the numbers this morning, the trade number as rick was talking about. The import number was terrible. The prices of it are down. It was largely energy. I tell you what kelly, the models the fed uses and most of wall street uses has very long lags between the moves in the Exchange Rate and moves in net exports. Tim seymour . If you look at the labor market, two best quarters of job growth since march of 2000. To say the labor market isnt changing and the slack is starting to disappear is to not be looking at the numbers. The u6 number is probably going to be below 10 by the Third Quarter this year so i think what walmart and mccdonalds are doing is Public Relations and goodwill but also a necessary element of whats going on. The job market is getting tighter. The impact of Lower Energy Prices is not something you see overnight. People are complaining about the consumer. There is a lag effect. One of the things youre seeing is the consumer has more buying power. So far things are not necessarily better. To say let me ask you, though, if they were doing this because fundamentally the outlook for the economy is better, why do shares keep selling off every time they announce wage hikes . Youre talking about companies having trouble growing and people whose top line as grown. Expense load these are companies who are probably not in a very good position to weather higher wages whereas the companies and the businesses that are having high growth in this country are placing that are low labor force, high efficiency businesses. The internet technology. These are places where the labor force is not as required. Mcdonalds, walmart, these are companies that people are critical about the top line. To add more margin pressure to whats going on makes sense to fe. John, at the same time to tims point, reading somewhere about snapchat paying new College Grads half a Million Dollars in salary or something. If were seeingny kind of wage pressure, its certainly there. They say all politics is local. The economy is really local, too. When youre looking at either in Silicon Valley or in Southern California where snapchat is when youre hiring engineers and theres a restricted pool of people with kind of skills in mobile Software Development that you want, absolutely. Youre going to find a booming mark there. Mike, do you think just to bring this back to the investor as well, im in a situation where i see some companies doing wage hikes. Maybe because its better demand. Who do i buy . I mean do i go with these guys . Honestly or do i stay away . The market has gotten to the domestic guys consumer beneficiaries. If youre looking at the housing, restaurants, hotels they had their move. I dont know if that was fully understood or priced in or not but those are the obvious ones. The Home Builders have had a good run here. Theres not been a hot of focus on the housing market. Its had surprising numbers to the upside. Anecdotely, theres a lot of discussion about remodeling buying new homes from people my age. Are we seeing this finally come through or no . I think were going to see a switch from that sort of foreign buyer highend market thats driving part of the Property Market for the last five years and the guy that just got 200 bucks in his pocket every month because hes not filling up his tank at the same cost he was before. So, to me the bottom end, and the sort of builder world where its kind of the churn them and burn them out in the west kind of trade, i think thats actually a great trade going into the next couple years. I line the sound of that. Reminds me of the sell main street its a good thesis because this is finally the time where weve gotten an ease working for the bottom end, visavis a stronger dollar. Tim, where do you see it most attractive now . Follow the places that seem to be looking. Look at the weaker dollar trades. These are ones where i think we have a window. I dont think this goes on forever. Some of the miners, material names, emerging markets. Brazil has been on fire. I look for relative value here. This is stuff were going to talk about on fast money. Highly contentious. Looking forward to that. Thank you, tim. More coming up from him and the fast money crew at 5 00. Theyre going to talk to the chairman of biogen and if that run is over. Dont miss it. Ahead, investors bracing for tomorrows report. Can the fed change the strategy if the data disappoints . Were going to talk about that next. Also kraft charged with manipulating wheat prices. Wheres the outrage when wall street firms are accused of this kind of wrongdoing . Were going to talk about that also coming up on the closing bell. Youre watching cnbc. First in business worldwide. Lets hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. So you can make your move wherever you are. And start working on your next big idea. Let me talk to you about retirement. A 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable professional. Would you trust me as your Financial Advisor . I would. I would indeed. Well, lets be clear here. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way i have no Financial Experience at all. That really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro you just dont know. Find a certified Financial Planner professional whos thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan. Org. Cfp work with the highest standard. Well investors took a wait and see approach today with the jobs report. Less than 24 hours away will the fed change course if the data disappoints . Lets ask lindsay from stern ag and Matt Ferguson from Career Builder along with our panel. Welcome, everybody. Lindsay, first to you. I guess the question is, if it disappoints, what would be considered disappointment . Were looking for a very modest number. Still positive but a significant decline from the plus 300,000 trend that we saw at the end of the last year. Remember, even if we do see weakness, i think this is going to be the most interesting point of tomorrows report where do we find that weakness . If we see it primary will in goodsproducing payrolls talking about construction manufacturing or trade and transport, its very likely we see a muted reaction to a disappointing report. Dismissing that as an aberration from onetime effects from Weather Report closures. I do think it will be, continue a continued decline in momentum but the market will look at this as a onetime miss. Matt, you agree . Whats your own view of what we might see tomorrow morning . Well, i think were going to see tomorrow morning like we said, were going to see a little bit of a decline from last month. I do think that were going to see more wage pressure probably not in this report or even the next two. We talked earlier in your last segment about walmart and mcdonalds. Were hearing from lot from employers. Were seeing a lot of wage pressure. Where are you seeing that . What kind of wage pressure matt . If you look from last year to this year, were seeing an increase of people who say theyre going to increase wages in the Second Quarter 5 or more. That went up to 25 . Wow. Significant increase. Theres still 27 of employers who said theyre not going to increase. That is survey data of more skilled employers. When you look at mcdonalds and walmart who hire a lot of people who are less skilled with their increases. Mcdonalds, 10 , walmart going to 10. Thats going to have an impact on other people to follow. As you get into the later part of the year more pressure to raise rates because i think income levels are going to be rising. David, whats your reaction to that . I think sorry, lindsey, just one sec. Dave . Earlier this week stan fisher, vice chairman of the fed gave a speech. Someone asked what does he believe more the gdp data or Employment Data . He said i dont believe anything about the gdp data. Wow. I think the Employment Data is basically the holy grail at a higher or medium term frequency. Weve seen pretty strong data when to comes to the employment side of the equation. Weve seen some spottiness when it comes to gdp and consumption data. I think this is actually a pretty important data piece. Its going to confirm whether what were seeing in this job creation story is real and legitimate, so a number like 270 or 280 that would be huge. Could be a very, very important number. I think a miss down below 200 like maybe the adp suggested even though that didnt take into account the public side would be a really big miss. So this is this to me is actually a pretty important piece of data. Sorry, lind dosysey. Go ahead and address what he said. Are we looking at the jobs number and dismissing the gdp report . It comes down to jobs. I dont think the jobs report has been impressive as of late. From the end of the year we were at 325. Lets split the difference and say we get 240 as the market expects tomorrow. Youre talking about a decline, then 250,000. Across the first three months of the year. So a significant loss of momentum. And while the Unemployment Rate has dropped to 5. 5, the committee, the Federal Reserve open market committee, has done a lot to try to convince the market that theyre not just focusing on that civilian Unemployment Rate. Because it doesnt convey the true health of the labor market. And instead, theyre focused on indicators like the u6 or augmented Unemployment Rate. As well as the Labor Force Participation rate. So i think they are watching both growth and the labor market but maybe a different level of indicators that were used to. Yeah, we got to go matt last question though. Another guest just mentioned the broader Unemployment Rate could be below 10 by the end of the year. Do you see if you have any way of gauging it measures of underemployment, if you will coming down . Im sorry, was that to me . Yeah sorry, matt go ahead. Yeah. Measure of underemployment. Do you see those falling . Do you see positive trends there . I would tell you anecdotely talking to employers its getting harder and harder. In skilled positions, i think in your last segment you talked about hiring engineers in california, how difficult that is. Thats true now everywhere. Other specialties are coming under pressure. I was talking to somebody about auto technicians. Youre seeing it in welders. Youre seeing big wage increases in both those segments. Im seeing it in a broader base of the skilled categories. Starting to betget into the semiskilled categories. To your point about the fed, i think theyre not going to have the pressure in june to raise rates but its going to come later in the year. Well wait. See what happens. Cant wait for tomorrow morning. Thanks for now, guys. Have a great long weekend. Be sure to tune in to squawk boxs special coverage beginning at 7 00 a. M. Eastern tomorrow morning. The report hits at 8 30. Lawmakers are quick to jump down the threats of big banks when theyre charged with wrongdoing. How come we havent heard that kraft manipulated wheat prices . Is wall street an easeier punching bag. Is the six year bull market in danger . Mohamed elerian is here exclusively to share his thoughts in just a moment. And reach, toes blossoming. Not that great at yoga. Yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just one day. Ahh so he had your back . Yep. In just one day, we approve and pay. One day pay, only from aflac. [duck snoring] in new york state, were reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. From pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. Whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started. Only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that Partner Companies with universities, and Venture Capital funding for high growth industries. See how new york can grow your business and create jobs. Visit ny. Gov business help northern china reduce its reliance on coal fire heating plants and prevent 60 million tons of co2 emissions . When emerson takes up the challenge its never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. Emerson. Why do we do it . Why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people . Why are we so committed to keeping you connected . Why combine performance with a conscience . Why innovate for a future without accidents . Why do any of it . Why do all of it . Because if it matters to you its everything to us. The xc60 crossover. From volvo. Lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. Visit your local volvo showroom for details. Welcome back. Food giant kraft under fire for alleged future trading violations. Kate kelly joins us now with the details and to explain, kate what that means for consumers. Thanks so much kelly. The case deals with the sometimes complex world of commodity hedges which is something that company like kraft sometimes use with futures contracts to lock in more attractive prices for the goods they need in order to make their products. Just in case those goods become too expensive in the daytoday market where they often do business. In this case were dealing with wheat produced on farms around the u. S. As well as around the world to make things like oreos and ritz crackers. Kraft typically buys wheat on the everyday or cash market on the u. S. Storing up to 5 million bushels of raw wheat at u. S. Mills or near them at any given time. This is during the period of question in the lawsuit. Kraft also had an option at that time and still does of securing wheat through the futures market which is something it rarely but occasionally did as of again, november 2011 according to the suit. At that time kraft bought a massive position in wheat futures. Amounting to 87 of the open interest in the chicago markets. And the move caused daily wheat prices interestingly to fall. Which saved kraft money and prices it rise making the Company Money because it had a wager in the markets. In the end kraft canceled out the majority of its futures contracts raths ss rather than taking physical delivery of the wheat and. Now, four years later the commission is taking kraft to task for the matter suing both it and its onetime subsidiary now the independent competitor mondelez. Mondelez said its coop rating with the inquiry and will bear the soft associated with the matter, kelly. Its really the first event in a series of legal undertakings here. Appreciate it, kate. As mentioned this havent gotten a lot of oxygen. Kate kelly back at headquarters. There hasnt been major outrage from main street. Why the double standard if there is one, gentlemen . What say ye . I think its because people are going to say, did this make my oreos more expensive . No. Okay. But guess what when the banks were tinkering with lobor, half the time that kept Interest Rates lower. That didnt make it okay. Main street didnt get ticked off about libor, anyway because people had no idea what was going on. People got upset with the banks when you had announcement after announcement after years of a financial crisis caused by the banks and having pent up animosity against the industry. This is a story that broke today or yesterday. We didnt have an inherent dislike of food companies. They didnt have a there we go again reaction to this. Again, the wheat market is not wheat is not in our 401 k s and doesnt feel like its at our expense. Dave . I dont know. I imagine that, you know, some congress mon somewhere is going to step up and Say Something at some point. I mean it is kind of frustrating to see Large Companies use manipulation whether the Hunt Brothers back with silver. Right. I think obviously physical commodities like a silver or gold hit home with people a little more than a wheat or soybean. Especially if theyre cornering the market to push the price up. Yeah. I think you could see it. I would imagine Elizabeth Warren is probably sniffing around. Thats the other thing. A good thing to proselytize on. If this is true theyre managing their own cost line on this. Its not as if they really want to raise the longterm price of the product. A lot of people believe markets are fundamentally rigged. Guys come in and talk about that and write books on it. Pointing the finger about what happens around here, but they made a 5 million Trading Profit on this. Its not insignificant. But from the average person 5 million sounds like a whole heck of a lot of money. Its a lot easier to get outraged if you think theyre messing with your food or your pocketbook. Change the oreos recipe and there will be outrage. No more doublestuf . Were leaving it right there. Double standard. Thanks guys. Time for a cnbc update. Sue herrera. Iran and the western world powers reached a Framework Agreement on cushing Irans Nuclear program for at least a decade. This after eight days of marathon talks in switzerland. President obama called it a Historic Deal and secretary of state john kerry was just as optimistic. Accept a good deal and today i can tell you that the political understanding with details that we have reached is a Solid Foundation for the good deal that we are seeking. The department of justice announcing seven people have been charged in a boeing kickback scheme related to government contracts for satellites. Well have more details as they become available to us. A heavy sandstorm, look at that plagued dubai today. Flights in the region have been affected leaving many passengers stranded. Sandstorms are common but rarely as strong as the current one. It is expected to last until the weekend. And firefighters are battling a huge fire in brazil which broke out in fuel tanks in an industrial area. 80 firefighters are fighting the blasz. No word on what caused the fire. Thats the news update at this hour. Sue herera thank you very much. U. S. And iran reaching a framework for a nuclear deal. President obama says it block irans pathway to a nuclear bomb. My next guest says this is a bad deal for the u. S. And for the world. Republican congressman ron desantis joins me straight ahead. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. I am never getting married. Were never having kids. Mmmmmm. We are never moving to the suburbs. We are never having another kid. Im pregnant. I am never letting go. For all the nevers in life state farm is there. Dont just visit new york. Visit tripadvisor new york. With millions of reviews and the best hotel prices. Book your next trip at tripadvisor. Com today. Welcome back. Big news today. With iran. As agreements are made on key parameters of the nuclear agreement. Recently republican congressman ron desantis of florida sent a letter saying iran negotiations are troubling, unquote. Ron desantis joins us now with offer his reaction to todays agreement with iran. Congressman, is this a bad deal . Well thanks for having me on. I think its noteworthy to hear how iran is trumpeting this deal and theyre basically trumpeting it as a victory. They got what they wanted. They wanted sanctions relief and wanted to keep their Nuclear Program. They didnt want to have to choose between the two. So i think this is going to be met with a chilly reception in congress. Sharfi the iranian negotiator was bragging about the fact the sanction relief is essentially front loaded that if iran complies on the first day then the sanctions will start to be removed. I think thats troubling because youre removing your leverage for this regime to do what they said they would do. I think we have no reason to want to trust them. President obama actually explicitly addressed that saying this deal isnt about trust. Its ultimately about verification with some of the strongest verification standards weve seen. I guess come out of bunone of these agreements. Does that give you comfort about what happens in the years ahead . Not really. If you looked at the agreement, i just read the outline, youre talking about converting say the facility into a Nuclear Research facility. What does that even mean . I think there are a lot of question marks about what even is in the deal, but yes, i dont have confidence youre going to have robust verification. Iran has cheated in the past. So i think congress is going to have a huge number of questions. And i think that theres going to be a desire to want to weigh in on this. And congressman, the ultimate outcome or goal i suppose, is being a little bit lost in these discussions. I mean what do you think our relationship with iran is or is supposed to be about . If we even should have one in your view . The most important issue at stake here is that iran which is a regime that is based on militant islam that they cannot have a nuclear weapon. You cannot mix that ideology with Nuclear Weapons, and i think thats the case tomorrow. I think thats the case next year. And i also think thats the case ten years from now. When you set up a system in which the sanctions will disappear after a tenyear period, even if you assume that the verification measures are going to work even if you assume all that . Guess what at a tenyear period, iran would be free and clear to go ahead and take their existing Nuclear Program and start to create Nuclear Weapons and that is very very concerning. Bringing in the panel here. Congressman, its jon fortt. So whats the alternative here . Is it to bomb them and bomb the facilities and set them back a certain degree and take diplomacy off the table . Is it to just try to put such onerous sanctions on, further sanctions that the countrys economy completely collapses or do you think diplomacy could be done better . What is the alternative . The alternative to a bad deal is a better deal. We made a mistake from the very how do you get it . Beginning in providing billions of dollars of sanctions relief because iran was hurting at the seem. Thats the time you want to be stronger on the front because its forcing them to produce concession concessions. We sent a signal we want a deal above anything else. Iran was able to get a lot of concession. Id walk away from this deal. You have people across the political spectrum recommend this. Howard dean was recommending this. To go to a more coercive form of diplomacy, youre ratcheting up the sanctions imposing that. Thats really the only chance you would have to have diplomacy work. If you go and think youre going to have a good faith gesture with iran, thats not going to cut it. You think u. S. Should play bad cop with the allies at the negotiating table rather than say were going to give you a chance and let you mess up a little if youre going to mess up then put further sanctions on you . Look, i think that if you want iran to force them to make a choice between Nuclear Program or sanctions relief youre going to have to mobilize your ally, and impose tougher sanctions. I think that thats been clear from the beginning. And i think thats where youll see most members of Congress Come down after reviewing this deal. Mike, can you just put this into perspective for us . Weve seen oil move around a little bit today. There are some saying now this means the price of brent is going to come down. Ult patimately where does it leave us . More on the defensive when to comes to oil price. Think the deal was handicapped enough, the market was expecting Something Like this. Now the assumption is lots of new supply we havent calculated is sfwoing togoing to come on the market. Obviously its oil price. In the months ahead, congressman, june is when we work at the specifics. As the president said the specifics matter. Everything will hang on whether theres an agreement on these specifics or not. Is that where we could see this all fall apart in your view . What needs to happen come june for you to be satisfied with this deal . Well i tell you, i mean the deadlines keep changing. So yes, theres obviously got to be a lot of information about the specifics. I mentioned the reactor. What does that mean that youre going to have Nuclear Research there . I think theres going to be a lot of questions with each point if this deal. So it will be interesting to see. I would urge the administration to be transparent, come to congress, explain this so that the American People are able to scrutinize it. And that we will. Thank you so much representative ron desantis of florida this afternoon with your thoughts. Thank you. Have a good weekend. Up next Mohamed Elerian tells us whether he thinks the market faces a huge selloff once the fed raises Interest Rates. Coming up as well former Nbc Universal chairman and Autism Speaks cofounder bob wright tells us where he stand on the fight against this disorder. Well get his take on the fccs recent decision to regulate the internet like a public utility. Stay tuned. Monitor it. 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Only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that Partner Companies with universities, and Venture Capital funding for high growth industries. See how new york can grow your business and create jobs. Visit ny. Gov business welcome back. That First Quarter was a volatile one. Thats expected to keep up until the fed decides to make its move on Interest Rates. What do we do with the volatilities . Were going to ask our next guest. Joining me in a cnbc exclusive, Mohamed Elerian chief economic adviser for allianz. Welcome. Good to see you. Good to see you, kelly. What do you recommend people do . Is it going to be more volatile volatilely . How much does the fed rate hike matter . When do you think it happens . There will be more. We have the fed which will hike at or by the december meeting versus the ecb which is going to loosen even more. But also the fundamentals are in motion. So investors should expect a lot more volatility and should expect more of what they saw in the First Quarter which is the beta trade in u. S. Equities not going to be as satisfying as it has been in the past. That means, mohamed, basically when people are looking at momentum names, momentum plays when they got better returns than the broad index, maybe youre saying its the broad index that people should focus in on . No im saying be very careful in terms of buying the index. Instead, select names. What are you looking for . First, youre looking for names that are going to be involved in some corporate action. Theres lots of cash on the sideline. Second, are specific names that are getting a lot of traction from growth. And thirdly, look to europe. Europe is going to continue to benefitqe trade. Be careful of the exposure because we should expect the dollar to get stronger. Bringing in the panel in a second. A real quick question before we go do on all of this. Rates. Are you surprised the ten year is as low . Its there for two reasons. One, the economy isnt taking off. Two, theres the downward drag from europe where qe is powerful, given how much theyre going to buy relative to whats available. Its being held down by economic and policy issues. Thats why i dont think youre going to see a major disruption when the fed starts moving at or by september. Okay. Hi mohamed its david. How are you . Good how are you . The dollar its been one of the biggest moves weve seen in the dollar in decades. Its up there in the top six if you look at the dollar index since the 80s. Im wondering if theres a level in the dollar you think will ult patly trigger some kind of backlash in washington . If the dollar were to go up to, say, 1. 10 or 1. 15 on the dollar index, wed see a material slowdown in industries that have exposure to trade. Its starting to filter through some of the negotiations. The tpp is becoming a little bit more questionable and a number of other trade negotiationing ings starting to get strained. Id imagine theres a political ramification of that quick of a dollar rise. In that sense, maybe we have a dollar pause for a little while, and anyone we get something further down the road to kind of go down that how high is too high, mohamed, for the dollar index . David is absolutelyfact the dollar is the only currency willing and able to appreciate. Everything else is worried about the currencies being too strong. Whats interesting is we havent triggered yet talk in washington about the currency war. Why . Two reasons. One is u. S. Economy is doing relatively well, and second its become a spaghetti bowl david and kelly, of interactions. The u. S. Interacts as a producer and as a consumer so you no longer get the lobbyies you had in the past. You need a much Bigger Movement of the type david has just spoke about to get a political reaction. And until then the dollar will continue to strengthen and continue to be a headwind for certain corporate profits. Mike . Mohamed, mike santelli. You said you expect the fed will move at or before the september meeting. And yet also the dollar will continue to appreciate. So you think that that hike can happen even if the dollar continues upward . I do. I think it happens for a number of reasons. First, and i expect tomorrows labor report to confirm this the economic recovery continues to broaden. Secondly, theyre not just worried about the dollar. Theyre also worried about financial excesses. Theyre worried about boosting asset prices too high too quickly. So i think they will take whatever opportunity they have to normalize. And theyre not going to be discouraged by just a dollar. Theyre going to look at it and in fact its really interesting how International Issues have featured much more in the minutes recently, okay, because i dont think its the constraining element. The constraining element will be wages. If they dont see wages pick up they wont hike. Well leave it there, mohamed. If people can only read one thing this weekend, what should they read . Read the analysis of whether the wages are responding to what has been a very strong Employment Creation in the United States. Well do it. Thank you so much Mohamed Elerian joining us this afternoon. Really appreciate it. Have a great weekend. The big jobs report due out at 8 30 tomorrow morning. Today is also world Autism Awareness day. Were all wearing blue. Up next Autism Speaks cofounder bob wright is telling us what gains are being made in the fight against this disorder that affects so many americans. Stay tuned. Were back in two. Today is the eighth annual world Autism Awareness day. What exactly is autism . And how close are we to finding a treatment . Meg tirrell joins us with some of the answers. Autism is a diagnosis encompassed of autism disorder. Social and behavioral challenges. While the causes of autism are not known, its associated with genetic and environmental factors. 3 million americans have thought to have autism. Prevalence has been increasing from 1 in 150 kids in the u. S. In 2000 to 1 in 68 kids in 2010. As for treatment the cornerstone is behavioral therapy. Of course, not everyone with Autism Spectrum Disorder needs ar or wants treatment. Medications are currently limited. Johnson johnsons abilify are approved for symptoms associated with autism but nothing that gets to the core symptoms. Drug companies have been focusing on genetic drivers of autism from roche to pfizer. Work is still in the very early stages. Kelly . Meg, thank you very much. I want to turn to a man who holds Autism Awareness close to his heart, ringing the closing bell. Here joining us at post nine former nbc chairman and Autism Speaks cofounder bob wright joining us with his grandson mattias who has autism. Thank you. Im surprised youre still talking to me. Before the other fellow alums have a heart attack late april fools joke you were playing there, bob. Thanks very much. Changing landscape in the college world. A changing landscape here. Its been ten years since you guys launched. Do you think autism is better or less well understood today than it was at that time . I think its much better understood. Certainly understood from the point of view of prevalence. I think we managed to get a relatively 50 increase of awareness in the United States among key groups. Families with children without children, but intend to have children which is really important. Younger people actually. And around the world, weve, through the efforts in the u. N. And our ability to work with w. H. O. , we brought some of the skills we have to a lot of other countries and got them very active. Activity is very important. When you get down to the science, we can tell you that roughly 50 of autistic children probably can be determined on a genetic basis. We dont have a marker to do that. Theres 50 that we cant nail down. Thats cancers are roughly 70 environmental. And nearly 30 genetic. So i think were in good territory. We know a lot more about than we didnt. But we didnt know enough and thats why we have this project. And our partners are in canada. The province of ontario. A very prominent scientist in his laboratory, are heavily involved in this. And the other partner is google. And google is in the bio inform informatics informatics, enormous cloud. And no university could outright do this at the scale were at. Weve done close to 3,000, on our way to 10. Its a great run. We just opened the scientific portal. And it will be kind of like fresh next week which means scientists from all over the world can come in and see the portal exactly where we are today with the frequency. These scientists have never seen. You mentioned that autism is becoming much more common prevalent. Matthias, youre 11 years old now. Do you feel your teachers and friends understand you . Yes. Most, yeah. Usually. Yeah, they understand that its a little bit hard to live with a brother that has autism. And whats the biggest challenge you guys face . Probably that just you know he cant talk. He cant speak. He cant really do stuff on command that well. So yeah. Its mostly that. And what bob, as you watch them grow up has your opinion changed on how well society is going to be able to deal and provide resources that are needed . We know an outline. We have to have a plan. I dont know i can do it all, but yes. Theres only 1 of the United States health care spent on direct mental health. Can you imagine that . Now, theres 2. 9 billion a year spent on 17 gdp. 1 of that is direct mental. So there is a huge opportunity. If you triple that. Thats been going on for a long time. It has not been increasing. So we have to move that. And congress has been very receptive. We passed research bills, up to 2 billion that have gone to the nih. So we have a we have bipartisan support. We have to get into the brain. At the same time, its jumped into the political foray recently with this whole scandal about vaccinations or lack thereof and how thats become part of the autism discussion. And thats why i asked whether we are increasing or struggling to understand autism as a society. Its a lot less of the discussion than it might have been ten years ago. So i would say we have to respect people that have strong feelings on that. And but we have to move ahead, and we try to you know follow leads on that. Thats environmentally oriented the most difficult. But its not slowing us down from doing this other good work. So in that interview just beforehand, people dont like to work in a spectrum. Cancer was a spectrum 70 years ago. And we didnt get anything going with cancer until we started to break down cancers. So we have to work on it. They want to have an array of genetic array, and they want to have phenotypeing. So they can see how does it present itself in that person. And then they go to work to increase we have worked with this and worked with that. We have worked with some of these presentation issues and then were off and running. Well matthias you have easter plans . What are you doing this weekend . Im going to my aunts and uncles house, and were going to do celebrate there. That sounds great. I wont keep you guys from it. Thank you. Enjoy. Thanks so much for being here. Thank you for the courtesy of being here. We really appreciate it. Matthias and bob wright. I didnt even get to talk about net neutrality. Net neutrality is very much like talking about the Iranian Nuclear paper. Everybody is winner. But nobody can explain their position in detail. Well leave everybody with that analogy. Thank you so much. Programming note. Markets will be closed tomorrow for the good friday holiday so there will be no closing bell. The jobs report due out tomorrow morning. A special edition of squawk box at 7 00 a. M. Eastern. Well be back on monday and joining us will be the first woman of Digital Publishing Ariana Huffington whose Huffington Post is about to celebrate its tenth anniversary. We continue right after this. The pursuit of healthier. It begins from the second were born. After all, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned. Every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. Healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care. By connecting every single part of it. For as the world keeps on searching for healthier. Were here to make healthier happen. Optum. Healthier is here. Welcome back. Time now to close this with some final thoughts from our distinguished panel. John, we start with you. I think were at a really interesting neutral point to start the Second Quarter. Weve got earnings coming up this jobs number is big because of that. Very similar to where we were a year ago that turned out to be a great year. Well see. Dave a lot of people will be focusing in on the oil patch, even in the jobless claim numbers, we started to see claims from those areas creep up. Yeah i think well continue to see it. I think everything is resting on the dollar. If the dollar stabilizes maintains a range, emerging markets will do better. Oil is going to be okay. Those oil patch jobs are not going to get completely slammed. But if the dollar breaks down below 104, were going to see very poor performance and equities terrible earnings and a storyline thats 100 european in terms of all performances and potentially japanese. But so youre saying that if the dollar breaks out toward that the dollar stronger. Were going to have a really tough year. Mike . Well that rule was in place today. So we backed off a little on the dollar. Gave clearance for stocks. Maybe at some point the linkage loosens up but not yet. Its interesting. This is the kind of thing politically people like to talk about, a strong dollar feels good for america, et cetera. But you imagine this is what the fed is wondering about, as well. The lagged effect it will have. Its funny, i was at an event with bob rubin earlier this week and i asked him, what is the strong dollar policy. And it was very interesting answer. He said the strong dollar policy only exists when we actually have a real fiscal policy. And in the 1997 period trent lott and president clinton signed a balanced budget amendment, and that for him was the strong dollar policy. We dont have anything like that now. It always comes back. Its just happening. Its happening. And its happening in a way thats probably not going to be pleasant for the equity market. Thanks to all of you gentlemen. Have a Great Holiday weekend and tune into a special jobs friday edition of squawk box tomorrow morning. The game will be covering it all at 8 30. And now its time for fast money with melissa lee and the gang. Whats on tap . The volatility we have seen in the biotech sector. Good to be back. Straight over to you guys. Fast money starts right now. Live from the Nasdaq Market site overlooking new york citys times square im melissa lee. Tim Seymour David seaburg, Karen Finerman and guy adami. Heres whats on the fast track tonight. One area is starting to break out, not in the u. S. Well show the chart and the sector that is starting to take off. And our call of the day, tesla catching a bid and its not because of a tweet. So well tell you how to play the bullish comments out of one wall street firm. But we start with a developing global story here. Oil selling off today on framework for a nuclear deal with iran