Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150116

Losing streak to finish on a positive. In the meantime though, more fallout from the swiss currency mess. Now some Retail Investors may be getting hit hard with no safety net. Well explain whats going on and show you how the impact there is much wider than the swiss franc. Oil rallying today but still solidly below 50 a barrel. Though you might not want to get comfortable with that too much. We have chris with us today from moodys. He says he sees oil back at 80 again and soon. What would drive it back to that point . You dont want to miss this interview later on the closing bell. Consider me dubious. I want to hear what he has to say. Nobody thought wed be this low in the first place but thats how markets work. We are up 101 points on the dow in the final hour of trade. The s p bouncing back nicely as well, up 16 points. Back above the 2,000 mark. And that nasdaq take a look. You have similar gains across the s p and nasdaq. The nasdaq adding 37 points. It is the third friday of the month so we have expiration day as well. A lot of volume on the open. May have a little volatility on the close. Bob pisani is in the middle of all the action at the big board. High volatility this week, bob, especially the final hour of trade. The volatility has been incredible not only on the close but on the open as well. I got a headache every single day at the close and at the open. Let me show you the price swings. Show you the way i think about the world. Normally the s p should move in a 10 11 12 point range. Monday, 23 point range p tuesday, 33. Wednesday, 32. Thursday, 31. Today its just 23. A calm day today. These are twice normal. How about some stability in oil . Would it kill you to have a donothing day. Oil, 3. Tuesday, 2. Wednesday at a 4. 4. 60 on thursday. Friday 2. 50. Oil are only 45. These are enormous ranges when youre talking about a 45 commodity. What has oil done this week . Oil is just up fractionally. Were still only up fractionally. How about some stability in other commodities. Copper moved in a 13 range. Very hard to trade Something Like that. While im complain being things how about jpmorgan . Normally jpmorgan should drop 2 going into earnings. Thats the historic norm of the way ive experienced it. Jpmorgan 60 going into the earning report. It goes down to 54. Thats a 6 drop. Thats a 10 move in two days. This is a 220 billion market cap. 20 billion just went away in 48 hours. You see its trying to cam offome off the lows but the volatility is very, very big and very tough to figure out where you should be what side of the trade you ought to be on. I got to have a drink tonight, guys. I got a manhattan with my name on it in philadelphia. Have a good weekend. Well see you later. Sturm and drang will be with us later in the program on todays program. Lets get to our closing bell when shes off air she laughs at all my lines. When were on air im trying not to be so giggly. Not a peep. To our Closing Bell Exchange meg green is back with us this friday. Hank smith from Haverford Trust tom liedddon jamie cox. Lets start with Rick Santelli and get your impressions to sum up the week weve had. Were getting the first chapter of a long book on what normalization is going to look and feel like and those that have been able to have large leverages and positions whether its Foreign Exchange or oil or loans, you see what happens. Leverage has a downside, but many Central Banks have been doing things that have shielded many investors from some of the sins of such issues as leverage and were seeing it all come home to roost. Interest rates is the one area of course that has been just kind of trending and a lot of the recent low yields like breaching 1. 70 today. If you talk to the quote, unquote, experts, theyre saying mario draghi will deliver. I dont disagree but really its not the experts we need to be concerned with. Its the psyche of the traders. Like with the euro it will be sell what we expect to happen and then hurry up and buy it once its done. Many on the floor think so. Ill tell what you, anybody watching, the 21st 22nd its going to be wild. It is. And weve already seen wild. And meg green, where do you think this leaves the fed . Weve heard a number of members out there talking about the extent to which they emphasize inflation or they emphasize job growth or theyre saying its going to be march or maybe june were not so sure. What do you make of all this . I cant imagine that theyre going to raise rates because we have such a strong dollar. Everybody is piling into the treasury. The 10year, its under 2. 00. Do we have to raise rates to pay out that interest . I dont think so. I think its going to stay low for quite a while. Hank smith, what do you think . Were Still Standing by a rate increase sometime in the late spring early summer but it wont be a series of consecutive rate increases. I think we might only get one in the middle of the year and maybe one at the end of the year and i dont think it will really make that much difference in the scheme of things but i dont think its going to be like past cycles where you had these telegraphed quarter point rate increases at each meeting. It will be nothing like that. One and done jamie . Do you think thats whats going to happen here . I think unlike the Swiss National Bank Janet Yellen has telegraphed what shes going to do. I think shes very data dependent dependent, model driven fed chairperson. She said theyre going to raise rates and i think theyre going to do it. I think thats exactly going to happen. I agree with haq itsnk its going to be very slow. Theyll do one rate hike and see what the market does. I think 75 basis points by the end of 2015 is what i think will happen. Tom, your work suggests that maybe weve talked about in the past several interviews with you, the market still presented some value. The equity market im talking about in the u. S. You think things are getting a little expensive now. Well in some areas like financials for sure bill but areas where theres value is actually in technology. Technology is hot but not like 1999. One etf, the u. S. Technology etf, has a valuation under the s p but did 50 more than what the s p did last year. Rick santelli is right, well see huge volatility next week. If they throw the baby out with the bath water in technology and a lot of earnings are coming in the following week. You have an opportunity to swoop in grab some big bellwether Technology Stocks that are really the basis of this index and this etf. What about Health Care Tom . Health care a little bit more challenged. Youre going to see with Interest Rates rising a little bit more challenging in those areas. In technology kelly, these companies are flush with cash so theyre not going to be as effective by rate hikes that yellen may throw at us in the second or third quarter. Rick, by the way, meg says, you know thats not alone, a lot of people feel the fed is not likely to raise rates as long as long yields are as low as they are right now. Whats the feeling on the floor there in chicago . Have you guys felt like we hit bottom for a little while or could we go sharply lower on the 10 and the 30 for example . From the floor perspective and remember, viewers, these guys are short term. Most of the bond traders got caught when a large sell order of cash came in the 10s and it changed the complexion of the day as we now have hovered around 181 in 10s and were getting close to 2. 45 but i would say rick, we need to break in for a second. Sorry, we have some news related to all this underpinning the market. Its an underdate on whats happening with leucadia. Fab we know that leucadia has inked the deal. Leucadia national will be providing 300 million in cash to fxcm so that it will permit the company to meet its regulatory Capital Requirements and continue operations normally after yesterdays 225 million loss due to the actions of the swiss bank. Leucadia will be investing this money into fxcm in exchange for senior notes. In the event leucadia says in the event fxcm sells itself or its subsidiaries 75 of all proceeds will go to leucadia. Ubs actsed a ed aas the financial adviser. Again, like david faber had been reported leucadia inks a deal providing cash to fxcm. This right now just over to us right now from leucadia. Well bring you more but for now fxcm gets its 300 million loan. Right now the stock has halted. It has been halted all day and shares remain halted given whats been happening with the news. It will be interesting to see how that opens up. To remind people again about whats happened fxcm caught on the wrong side of the big move the Swiss Central Bank made yesterday that ought the swiss franc up 40 against the euro dollar and making similar gains. As Everybody Knows in a business that can be as leveraged with as much carry as there is in fx it can take a move much smaller to wipe out someones capital position. Whats interesting as well is to compare fxcm with a gain capital. Well have the ceo of gain capital on next hour here. Thats just after the closing bell. Thats a firm that says it thought it saw something coming with regard to the swiss having to abandon that peg and positioned itself accordingly. Rick i will get back to you on the rates in a minute. Hank smith, the fear is that well hear this about other firms as well maybe even some banks that got caught on the wrong side. What do you think . Well look i think this is just part of normal market activity and this is what happens when you combine leverage and youre on the wrong side of a trade. I dont think it takes away from the broader picture, which is the u. S. Economy growth rate is moving higher toward 3 . Corporate profits look attractive. Stocks look much more favorable than bonds. Listen just to be clear though, going back to why were in this situation in the first place, you know what the swiss are basically betting on is the u. S. Dollar will keep appreciating and that includes i would imagine the Federal Reserve doing more than what you just told us they were going to do because you just said theyre going to be one and done. If that happens and the u. S. Dollar starts depreciating and theres more upward pressure on the swiss currency where does that leave us . Well i think it leaves you, one, with again, the u. S. Markets looking more attractive than developed international, than emerging international markets. It really the u. S. Is the best place in the neighborhood, and so you think the dollar will keep rising . I do yes. And, rick then aretreasury yields continue to go lower. You were starting to answer the question about the perception on the floor about whether were starting to feel a bottom or yields on the long end of the curve. Traders on the floor pulling in all their game pieces they really are. Theyre keeping it close to the vest. The overriding notion is theres still more downside in yield, upside in price but look for ill give you one example. One trader for the 22nd established a wide range for the 10year bund of 30 to 70 basis point. Hes prepared to be in a range that wide. If you have a range that wide there, i would add another 30 to that range because thats the kind of volatility you could get in long maturities if draghi overdelivers or underdelivers. Thanks everybody, especially reacting to that news breaking this hour. Have a great long weekend. A lot of people could use the rest after the kind of week weve seen. You have to believe the market is a bit exhausted after the kind of volatility weve had but we are higher up 100 points. Yes and holding onto those gains. Thats about a little more than half a percent on the dow. The s p and nasdaq both adding 0. 8 . We have a team to keep you on top of all of these moves. Keep it right here as we look across a pretty strong bodroad based gain on the s p. When we come back fxcm falling off a cliff thanks to the Swiss National banks shocking move to revalue their franc. Weve got sara eisen back with us to talk about the biggest losers that could be hit down the road plus the pros shed some light on how the swiss surprise may be hitting the wallets of Retail Investors. Also its been a tough week for financials. Wall streets top analysts debating whether you should be buying the dips and some big ones big underperformance in the financials. Thats coming up. Welcome back. Closing out a volatile week for lots of markets on a positive note at least for equities today, the dow is up 103 points right now. At the high what were we . Up about 120 or thereabouts today. Now were at 17,425 back above 2,000 on the s p. Nasdaq is up 37 points. Oil this week a lot of volatility as bob pisani pointed out. With all the volume pit foratility or a week though, were up just a fraction with that 4. 6 gain today. Gold has been a big beneficiary with all of this. The rally continued up another 11 today, back to 1,276 and for the week of a gain of 4. 25 . Speaking of volatile yesterday swiss surprise more of a swiss miss for Foreign Exchange brokers and trading houses. Sara eisen has the damage assessment. Certainly that shock is being felt by currency brokers that cater to retail traders. Talking about fxcm the story of the day. Biggest fx broker in the United States. The stock has been halted pending news all day which we just got after it dropped about 90 in the premarket this morning. When it did disclose a 225 million hole that is owed by its clients to the firm who got wiped out in trades when the swiss earthquake hit. Thats how trading firms are calling the move. That 30 move higher in the swiss franc on the back of the shock announcement that the central bank was pulling its policy of a floor for its currency. Leucadia confirming that it will provide this company with 300 million in financing to cover those losses. Other retail Foreign Exchange brokers were lower earlier in the day, like gain capital, which is now higher. I know youre going to talk to the ceo. He told us earlier they had safer leverage rules than competitors. Retail is a small slice of a 5 trillion a day market. The Foreign Exchange market. Fxcm traded about 1 trillion in value over a quarter. But it illustrates this spillover effect and it could signal there is more damage to come. Watch for any big impact at some of the bigger institutional currency trading desks. Goldman cfo saying no material impact, no Financial Impact there, but he did say, guys what we all witnessed yesterday was, quote, pretty extraordinary. And thats a way to put it. Sara, thank you so much. More reaction to the shocking move. Joining us with their takes respectively we have dennis gartman, editor of the gartman letter who has been in gold and japanese yen for a while and david bijanko from deutsche bank. Does this change anything from you in terms of our markets with what the swiss did . Were more convinced the euro will continue to weaken. This creates a lot of headwinds. I think the clarity is theres no certainty on where rates are going. Where currencies are going, where Commodity Prices are going. Especially if you consider mario draghi is considered to press the euro even further lower here, right . And were going to have to hear some imaginemagic words but they think the euro will trend downwards. Fixed income, xhomcommodities and currencies, we knew there was pressure on the first two piece approximates. Now the currency move. What happens from here . Is there any surprise were seeing such underperformance . I dont think any major banks will show anything untoward. I think most of the damage occurred probably in retail. I think the damage really will come out what happened to mortgage holders in europe and corporates in europe that had funded themselves in inexpensive swiss francs, very low rate, very low Interest Rates in switzerland and suddenly they find themselves with mortgages that are now 20 more value than they had, debts that are 20 larger than they thought they had. Those problems will come to the fore in another, two, three, four weeks. Any other surprises on the horizon, dennis, that you can think of that might as a result of what the Swiss National bank has done here . Well i think that its really done damage to global respect for Central Banks. Global respect for Central Banks has been diminishes anyway and i think yesterdays decision on the part of the Swiss National bank having come out and told us all a week and a half ago that they were going to stick by this peg for the long for far into the future and would do it with all of their power and two days later to come out and end the peg, i think that that just causes great more discon certification, great more disrespect for Central Banks generally and i think thats the real problem thats going to come from the next several months. David, what they were trying to accomplish effectively was to let it free float and by lowering the deposit rate into further neg territory put downward pressure on the currency. If that starts to come forward in the next couple weeks, will we all look back on this as a braver and friendlier move . I think they realized they were standing in front of a train. The euro is going to weaken no matter what. Whats happening in currency markets isnt that impactful to banks. Were sacrificing the commodity complex for the benefit of others and the stronger currencies leading to low Interest Rates are weakening commodities in part and stay away from Energy Industrial capital goods youre telling me what to stay away from multinationals commodities, those things hurt by the increasing dollar. Who benefits . Its hard to find beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. Even for oil its a net negative. Were leaning toward the stronger parts of the Market Health care, utilities, big happen, reasonable pe and tech. The one Silver Lining for pe multiples, long term yields are incredibly low. Theyre likely to stay low for a long time. We can start justifying higher multiples on the industries that can show steady and upward earnings. We have to hop but how do this affect you personally . Well it actually was very beneficial because ive been long gold and short of euros and it turned out to be a good trade. I have been short euros and long of sterling, that was a fairly decent trade. I was a little short of the stock market. Thats hurt me a little bit but nothing much. Its actually been very beneficial. Ive been very lucky. I dont think gold in euro and yen terms has been a great trade. And you think its going to keep going, dendennis . Absolutely. I see no reason to think thats going to change. Gold im not a gold bug. Gold is simply another currency. What you see is the monetary authorities in japan and germany and at the ecb are going to have no choice but to continue to expand their continue to monetize their currencies. Thats going to be detrimental to their currencies and supportive of gold as another currency. Thanks for your thoughts. 35 minutes in the trading seg and were moving higher. Dow is setting new highs for the day. This is an expiration day. Some may be attributable to that but were up 132 points. How is this for a contrarian view the u. S. Economy not doing well. Deflation is here and the fed will have to do a new round of stimulus. The wall street we are that view joins us. Plus Goldman Sachs the latest bank to take a hit after the earnings announcement. Are these buying opportunities he asked . Find out what some of the pros are saying next on the closing bell. Having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pickup truck slams into your brand new car. One second it wasnt there and the next second. Boom youve had your first accident. Now you have to make your first claim. So you talk to your Insurance Company and. Boom youre blindsided for a second time. They wont give you enough money to replace your brand new car. Dont those people know youre already shaken up . Liberty mutuals new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. Call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch to Liberty Mutual insurance and you could save up to 423 dollars. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back. With just over half an hour to go were still seeing markets move to the upside. The dow up 127. The sapp adding 18. Its at a level of 2,010. Theres all ten sectors of the s p. Did you just say that . No. There they are. All positive for the day. A lot of earnings news and banking we were just talking about. Dominic chu will tell us about it right now. Its not going to end today or even on tuesday. Three banks out with earnings came out today. Well start with Goldman Sachs moving lower after reporting a 7 drop in Fourth Quarter profits on weakness in the bond trading business. The stock counsel by about 1. 33 . A different story for suntrust. Moving higher after the bank posted an adjusted earnings number that beat wall street forecast. The stock is the best performer among the Financial Sector today. You can see theyre up 3. 33 . Well end with Pnc Financial which also posted better than expected Fourth Quarter results earning a profit of 1. 04 billion down slightly from the same time last year. Revenues also decreased though its shares up by 1. 33 . The Banking Sector is grappling with persistently low Interest Rates that have pressured Net Interest Margins or their profit margins. So kelly, bill financials very much in focus and we have Morgan Stanley coming up on tuesday. Back over to you guys. Another big one, dom. Thank you. Banks disappointing this earnings season. Financials one of the worst performing sectors in twip. N. Should you stay away . Joins us with nick and chris with their thoughts. Chris, what is weve been watching the financials underperform this market so far this year. Whats the message there . What are the bank stocks and earnings trying to tell us right now . Its the same message weve had for the past couple years. Weaker revenue. They managed to hit their earnings either with various Balance Sheet manipulations or cost cutting. There was a great headline in american banker. It said weve had bone which means were probably going to see more layoffs this year. And, nick talk to us a little bit about the impact the financials have had on earnings overall as we move through the season. Thaech definitely dragged the numbers down. Were actually off to a good start for Fourth Quarter earning season but the financials this week were really bringing the numbers down. Chris is right, banks have struggled now for years trying to stimulate Revenue Growth and were just not seeing that. We have negative Revenue Growth for most of the banks that reported this week. Negative Earnings Growth and low quality earnings. Overall disappointing this week from the banks. And, nick theoretically a banks stock if it rises, you could interpret it as being expecting higher rates down the road which the financials would benefit from. That doesnt seem to be the case right now, does it . The Net Interest Margins are just compressed with the low tra rates Interest Rates. We dont want to underestimate the impact of the extreme drop in Energy Prices too, and its impact on loans to that sector to businesses there. Thats also going to hurt banks as well as the yield curve thats too narrow. Chris, the fact that banks hung in there and kept growing and reporting record profits after the crisis seemed to push back on this idea it was the end of the era of these huge mega banks or too big to fail whatever you will. Now do you think the Market Forces combined with regulatory forces are really asserting themselves and were going to see more and more shrinking . Slow shrinking. It wont be dramatic kelly. The thing that i want to follow up with our other guest though is that even if the fed raised rates tomorrow substantially, Net Interest Margin for banks is not going to turn quickly. Its like an oil tanker. A bank reprices its assets over four to five years on avalanche. So it would take that long to see the effect in terms of boosted earn frtion carry. But, yeah well see them shrink kelly. Citi has announced theyre going to sell more branches. I think you will see all the banks lightening up on assets that dont really throw off earnings that are common shur rat with their return hurdles. Very quickly, chris. If mario draghi does follow through and institutes a quantitative easing, an easy money policy as expected next week, does it mean our own fed is less likely to start raising rates . These banks our banks could be flapping in the wind or even longer. I think thats right, bill. And i hope draghi doesnt do what hes been threatening. I think what weve done is created a liquidity trap globally. You see money going to the stronger currencies running away from the rest of the Global Economy and i think its deflation. This is Irving Fisher writ large. Everybody google Irving Fisher and look him up. One of the greatest american economists of the lost century. Milton friedman. Have a good weekend. 30 minutes to go into the close. The dow is up 130 points. The s p is up 18 and the nasdaq 41 to try to close out the week. Will we have a whoop, whoop day . Its before a threeday holiday and we often get it. Here we go. Not bad, guys. Coming up well speak with an oil analyst who thinks crude will hit 80 a barrel by the end of the year. And the fed may have to unleash a new round of stimulus thanks to a u. S. Economy thats underperforming according to our next guest that will state his case when we come right back. So no set up fees wooh yeah so i get help from rollover consultants . Wooh yes no rollover hassle. Great. Woah oh, were spiking things, robbie. For all the confidence you need. Thats better td ameritrade. You got this. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Heading to the close, 24 minutes left in the session today. Rally under way right now. Ive got art cashin standing in front of me. Are we seeing some buying pressure because of the expiration . At 2 153 15 you went from being 300 to sell to pared off. That relief of pressure gave you this part of the rally. There you see were at the highs of the day with a gain of 146. Look at the s p heat map. Much of the gains are in that sector. You see very little red today, kelly, with the s p right now up 20 points. Thats about the high for the session as well. And the debate has been not if but when the fed will hike rates, bill. But for our next guest, its more of a question of when the fed will need to do another round of stimulus. Rick santelli is out there somewhere with a primal scream under way. Our next guest says we may see more quantitative easing this year. Scott shalade says he believes the u. S. Economy is not doing that well and the real story is deflation is emerging. Also with us A Rick Neuman from yahoo finance. Scott, you made a lot of heads turn when you said things are so bad the fed will have to do another round of bond buying this year. Tell us why. What are you looking at here . Well i mean first of all, im a positive person. Id like things to get better faster. Im not trying to be debbie downer. You had retail sales the other day that were horrible jobless claims that are bad. I dont believe in the Unemployment Rate because the record numbers of people that are out of not looking for work or guven up together. I see an economy with record low 30year Interest Rates. We cant kick start our Housing Market. Weve spent over 3 trillion to buy 2. 5 growth and absolutely no inflation. Im wondering if we have any faltering this summer or this spring with whats happening in europe and asia with china and japan, where is the strength in the economy going to come from to help us get out of the situation . If you would have asked all the smartest economists in the room last year at this time right now, they said we were going to finish 2014 with a 10year yield at 3. 5. And people are sorry, go ahead, scott. We finished the year at just over 2 . And we just broke the new lows we had on october 15th. So im telling you right now that number is telling me we have something wrong. Copper is telling me we have something wrong. Oil is telling me we have something wrong with the economy. If the economy was firing on all cylinders, we wouldnt be having any of these arguments. Rick i was just going to say there are some who say the fed missed its chance to raise rates last year and now its too late. What would you say . Whatwawa. Sorry, i couldnt resist. We have had doom sayers on both sides of the inflation debate since the fed started quantitative easing in 2008. At the beginning of 2014 everybody was saying we would have runaway inflation. Quantitative easing will cause that problem. Now were hearing deflation might be a problem. I dont think many economists would tell you the economy is firing on all eight cylinders right now. Its clearly not. However, weve had the best job we had the best job growth in 2014 since the 1990s. That was sort of almost what you might call peek prosperity back then. Consumer confidence is back to prerecession levels. Were expecting to get wage growth and this is all happening, lets remember low inflation is terrific for consumers and now were getting a free stimulus plan called a 50 plunge in oil prices. These two reflect problems in the real economy but we now have Mortgage Rates below 4 . There are a lot of things ordinary people can be taking advantage of. This is a pretty good time. Very quick, scott, isnt it possible that the extremes were seeing in the markets you just talked about not a reflection of our economy but of the Global Economy, the european economy especially where their expected to push their currency a lot lower making us that much more attractive over here . Making us more attractive but also making us less attractive because its only going to strengthen that dollar even more. Lets say they try to hike rates which would be a mistake like we had in 1937 and we could put the brakes on everything just with one little rate hike which they think they should do rather than need to do. So i say this if you really look at the numbers, yes, wages were down last time we had numbers. We also have more manufacturing jobs being lost and more bartender and waitress jobs being gained. Not to say anything about those people but were not doing the good oldfashioned manufacturing build we used to do. We cant keep the rest of the world afloat. The rest of the world is probably whats going to bring us down. Thank you for your thoughts. Very interesting. Rick wawawa. Thats my official commentary. 19 minutes left. Weve had a rally under way. The dow was up 175 a moment ago. Now just off the highs. Well come back. We have art kshen standcashin standing by. Bob pisani will be along, too. Welcome back. Were close to session highs on the markets. The dow is up 175 points. Art cashin rejoins us from ubs with our very own bob pisani. Art, you just said perhaps theres some more buy orders materializing. We went to 3 Million Dollar to 320 and now weve switched over to 300 million to buy. What do you expect to happen . I think theyll try to hold the bid in here. The shorts are the most nervous. Im going to cross my fingers and hope we hold onto these gains and the rumor mongers who have been active all day dont get at it. Some fake tweets out there and all kinds of things. As you said the word of the year is going to be hacking. We had a hacked tweet supposedly saying that chinese ships had fired on american ships. Absolutely false. We had another one that said the fed had called for an emergency meeting because of spillout from the swiss move. None of it was true. And yet a surprisingly sow fis at this kalted tweet. You have to know something about the idea that there may be concerns about currencies. The fed meeting at 4 00. At least theres some awareness there. Whats important about today is its amaze wag a little stability does. Oil stabilizes doesnt gyrate up and down. Copper sort of stable. The bonds kind of stable and the market just calms down and slowly drifts upward with stability. Markets up 182 rights now. We are seeing the buys come in here. Is this expiration or are they already trading on the anticipation of what mario draghi is going to do next week . Theres a lot of anticipation of mario draghi. I think thats in there. Expiration is probably 40 of this. The rest of it is positioning, but before we all go whistling down the yellow brick road you havent seen the full consequences from this swiss move. They are probably going to set off a major recession in their country and possibly loosen more deflationary pressure in europe. Draghi has got to do something and do it fast. Or will the swiss ultimately have to do something, bob . Well the swiss i think surprised the whole world this week, and its a little disconcerting because i think you can argue the Swiss National bank has lost a lot of credibility. I think theyd take offense to that. Theyd say what alternative did we have. They really were in a very bad position and really argues against currency pegs. Thank you guys. Ill let you get back there, art. Well hear from you later. We have a news alert on the Supreme Court. Hampton pearson in d. C. With details. Hampton . The Supreme Court, the u. S. Supreme court, has decided to take up the issue of gay marriage this term. The orders were just released. Its timing is significant because, frankly, had we not heard from the court in the next week or two, it was doubtful they would take up the issue of the constitutionality of gay marriage during the current term. Now it looks like we would get oral arguments in april and a likely decision by the end of the current term. Most recently the court had gotten a bunch of cases from at least four states that were upholding the bans against gary marriage. At the same time i believe its Something Like 36 states plus the District Of Columbia now allow some form of gay marriage. But, again, Supreme Court moving forward, they will hear arguments on the issue of gay marriage, the constitutionality of it, in the current term. Back to you. All right. Hampton, thanks very much. Heading to the close, 12 minutes left here, and we continue higher. The dow now up 190 points. A gain of 1. 1 . The s p has got the biggest gain percentagewise, 26point gain but its up 1. 3 right now. A lot of green on that map. Meantime, Foreign Exchange brokers taking it on the chin thanks to that swiss surprise. Were going to speak to the ceo of one big one just ahead. Stay tuned. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. 8 30 left and we continue to set some highs for the day. A moment ago the dow was up 190. Art cashin walked by at the beginning of the commercial break and said we now had about 100 million in stock to buy. Given this is an expiration that could have changed in the last two minutes. More and more green as well as we head toward the close. These are all 500 components of the stoordandard poors index. David darst on this friday. They like to say as art told us dont be short into the long weekend. Do you get short again once you come out of it. I think you want to watch the corporate earnings season unfold. You want to watch average Hourly Earnings where we had the negative number last week. You want to watch the retail sales number with a dip there. 0. 9 down. 0. 4 after the gasoline. These are some things that i think are going to determine how the market goes. In my humble opinion, this is just a replay. Its a very healthy pause. Interest rates are low, inflation is low. Maybe a bit too low. But the fed is on the case. European central bank is about to get on the case. Central bank of state of wisconsin er of switzerland, theyre all on the case. How large will the package be is what the markets are waiting to see. Is it a 500 million is it 500 or several hundred billion. It sounds like it has to be at least 500. David, if they dont deliver, if they dont deliver in size if the details arent exactly what people are looking for or they try to cut deposit rates more what happens to stocks then . Then everybody that is watching this show should be ready to buy and have a plan and especially the Energy Stocks. Theyve been killed. These stocks i just got back from calgary. These stocks are down 60 , 70 up there. Have a plan. Start to nibble at some of the good company that is can pay a dividend. As the guys on fast money said today, panicking is not a plan. Thats not a strategy. Panicking is not a strategy. Is done by generals. Tactics is done by soldiers. That west point grad coming through again. Have a good weekend. A long weekend as well. Ill catch everybody back here at 4 00. Well come back with the closing countdown. And then the 10year yield climbing back above 1. 8 but it could be a different scenario next week. Rick santelli tells us what he thinks on tap from the bond pits and your portfolio. Youre watching cnbc first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare . Thats a good thing, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. So consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans they could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call today to request a free decision guide. With these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. Join the millions who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. And provided by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. With all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. Call now to request your free decision guide. O0 you just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Three minutes left. What do you say about a week like this . Let me show you some charts of the week. The tremendous volatility. Remember tuesday . That huge gain we saw on the dow that just evaporated almost immediately. We had that soud dayoutside day as we call it and then just lower for the week. For the week is the dow is down 1. 2 even with todays gain of 200 points on the industrial average as we head toward the close on this expiration friday. Crude oil, bob pisani highlighted this earlier, even with all the volatility and there was a tremendous amount of that, we are only seeing a gain of less than 1 for the price of crude oil today as it hit that low for the week around 44plus dollars. Were back to 48. 50. The 10year yield, the long end of the yield curve, tremendous volatility there. Yesterday the 10year got down around 1. 69 it looks like here. Were back to 1. 83 right now but for the week the yield was down almost 7 . David darst wanted to see the 30year bond because we were well below 2. 50. Down to 2. 39 or thereabouts. Were back to 2. 45 today, and that yield on the 30year a decline of 4 david. Peter costa joins us as well right now. Youre looking pretty good there, buddy. The cat ate the canary here. Youve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for an entry point. And i am still sighting on the sidelines. What im doing is actually starting to nibble a little bit in a lot of Energy Stocks because i do think weve seen and maybe im going out on a limb and you know i dont mind doing that but i think the lower end of that energy cycle i think we reached it. So i do think weve come very close to the bottom and im expecting oil to start rising slowly back up to 55, 60 a barrel. Our old friend george soros says think about reflexiveity. The more chaotic things got low flation is one of the key things, Interest Rates, and oil. Watch those three things and watch the banks which had a rough week. You have worked on wall street how many years and 43 years. Banks have had a tough week here. We did not get the earnings we hoped for and expected and bank stocks have been underperforming anyway. Down 10 for the month. Now down even more bill. Watch the banks. We want to see them stabilize the way oil has been stabilizing to have an entry point. Okay. Very interesting. Thank you, guys. Have a good weekend, a long weekend, as a matter of fact. Were going out with a gain of almost 200 on the dow on an incredible week. Markets are closed on monday. Well see you on tuesday. Here is the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans right now. Have a good one, kelly. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans and thats it, were closing out the week and what a week its been across the week. Todays rally pretty interesting. The dow finishing up with a 200 point gain. Only a couple names in the red. Well get to those in a moment. Joining me is nicholas carlson. We have kevin oleary, also joining us our very own robert frank. Joining us for more on todays Market Action and the move in the swiss franc also fast money trader brian kelly. Brian, welcome to you. Are you surprised we finished out as strong as we did this week . Im surprised at how strong we were today absolutely. I dont think weve probably seen everything thats come out of this swiss franc action. We know when currency prices break, other things break. I think theres more to come. I was surprised how strong it was today. I guess if i had to blame it on something, id blame it on options expiration and perhaps people just letting the dust settle and make some Short Covering. Thats what we heard from art cashin. He thinks theres more chips to fall. There are so many macro forces. We heard going into this year this was going to be a stock pickers market. Its a central bank pickers market. Theres so many forces you just got to choose which narrative to pick. My question is why isnt all of this stimulative . From my perspective, everything that happened to be a signal of slow down overseas but when it comes to the u. S. Stock market, why isnt this stimulative . Isnt this like 2008 2009 . Stocks seem to like it all right. Isnt the argument that the European Central bank wasnt stimulative enough and thats what got us in this mess . The euro started rallying then they were concerned the aur row zone might break up and there was a flight to safety to the swiss franc and they had to cap that. But theres this deflation fear out there. The bond market is signaling a big warning sign which all of which could be a symptom of a dramatically slowing economy overseas which could infect the u. S. I see all that as stimulative at least when it comes to the u. S. Kevin, we know youre all about show us the money, just show me the money, show me the clique chunky dividend payer. Are these dividends safe . No theyre not. The analyst that is follow these major names havent even had a chance to go back to the desk sharpen their pencils, and reestimate cash flows for the year. I still dont buy any of the stocks yet. The bad news is not in them. Grown men are going to be weeping about the debt of the juniors and the midcaps. We have all those bankruptcies and people talking about an 80 average for oil in this calendar year are dreaming. The chance of that happening is zero because i dont think oil is going to have an easy recovery back to 50 on a sustainable level. Rigs are lying down but michael ward told us this week they have not seen any slowdown in volumes, none. Im predicting well see a three handle on oil before the carnage is over and its a good thing because it will scrape all the idiot management teams that took on debt out of it and all the assets will transfer some of those teams werent so idiotic because their debt is good for five years. The point is though that those will trade based on cash flows to service both interest and principle payments and the best place to be an investor in energy will be on the debt and convertible side. Im starting to look through the covenants of those. Its complicated because many of them do not have many covenants. I was going to say cov light has been the theme. In the j k, the bottom 18 is garbage debt. They were issued by drunken sailors on the banking side and those that issued the debt too. There will be a time to own this stuff. Its just not yet. People are buying tech. Thats the port in the storm. What can you tell us about yahoo . What should we watch in terms of the next chapter of that story and the way in which the tech itself is trying to buck the trend . Theres something going on at yahoo . Theres going to be a big transaction. Its too good for meyer to plit this Company Split this company in two. Whats the most likely whats the best thing they could buy . Tech investors or yahoo . Yahoo . I think yahoo should split into two companies. I think this is the starboard plan. If they make an acquisition i dont think they should be making are they the acquisition. Talk to me as a value investor. If they split in two, thats going to have the king has no clothes because yahoo in my view has no value whatsoever outside of the shares they have in alibaba. Why would i want to own a small, tiny with a whole bunch of assets that didnt work. Everything they bought was not so good. I had another word for it but if they split in two, you get to own the assets just the assets. You dont have to worry about the other business. As the core business you get doctor mash ris sa mayrissa mayer has a chance to have a smaller company. Is there any reason for yahoo to exist today . What do you get with that . This is going to be palace intrigue at davos when Marissa Mayer is there. But i say to myself if i were putting incremental money into tech why would i put it into yahoo split or no split. Thats the challenge for Marissa Mayer at yahoo is if yahoo went away would the world really miss it that much . I have watched a series of ceos extract value out of that place 100 million at a time and leave nothing for shareholders. Its a revolving door of ceos. They make 60 million to 100 million and theyd be out of there. If i was a shareholder, i would be very unhappy. Except your share appreciation has rewarded you a serendipitous transaction of course. And that was the only thickng of value in that whole thing. I would be very unhappy as a shareholder. Here is the bright side is they could go some things like get bing out thereofof there, move google in. She still has probably 5,000 too many employees. How long until shes gone . I think she has three to five years. You are a generous man. I think she has a board of directors that love her. How long until theyre gone . That will be decided in this spinout im predicting. Lets talk about many Foreign Exchange brokers hit hard with yesterdays surprise move by the Swiss National bank killing its exports to help the swiss franc to keep the franc artificially low against the euro. Our next guest weathered the storm better than most. Glen stevens is the ceo of gain capital. Its great to have you here. What gave you a heads up that the swiss might have to abandon its peg and protect your business akourdingly . I think the shocking news was the timing not the actual action. Its been a pressure pot stewing for six to nine months. If you watch the activity as customers started to get on the wrong side of the seesaw about midsummer of last year when the Swiss National bank was very sow sif russ about saying were going to defend 120 with quote, unlimited resources, it turned it into an asymmetric onesided bet and ultimately you had customers line up on the wrong side. We started to see that activity and ultimately used or Risk Management techniques to say this is a Pressure Cooker you dont want to be on the wrong side of. Ultimately you start to change things likes leverage available for clients and other mechanisms that make it so theyre not as exposed. Our clients are a little better protected. We try to be real proactive about it but it was something thats been stewing and brewing for a while. The last piece that made it was the timing. What about fxcm if you could tell this was stewing and brewing, and jim grant said the same thing, they clearly were caught on the wrong side many of their clients were enough to render them almost insolvent, are people coming to you . What about the people still over there and others who have suffered huge losses on these moves . No fxcm isnt alone but ultimately were seeing an inflow of customers as youd expect because we came out in a more positive light and ultimately sometimes when you tell a story it isnt believed until the actions speak for themselves. This is one currency out of one product that gets traded. Theres a lot of people who said its a bet that good made that went wrong. I think its one piece of the whole puzzle but unfortunately this is a positive for gain. Robert . I have a question about why the swiss did this. Obviously the euro was weakening, but the business of switzerland is to manage wealthy peoples money. If the wealthy were seeing their money invested in switzerland depreciate with the euro was that the pressure you think for them to act here . I think the pressure was this combination of do we really want to use all our resources at this line thats being drawn that cant be crossed . I think it wasnt that long ago we were talking about the red line, and this was one of those scenarios where what made 120 so special . And when you look at a centralbackcentralsencentral bank who checks on their reserves and says these arent unlimited, at some point they have to reassess and say maybe we should be meshanaging this in a measured pattern. The realization said we should back away and take it from there. But they were expecting, glepglep glenn, to see downward pressure ultimately. Is that still possible . And where does this leave the dollar and the euro . Were talking about some momentous events in the next couple weeks. How are you positioning accordingly . I think a couple things. Number one if you look at the euro there was a divergence between cooperation between the Swiss National bank and the rhetoric coming out of the European Central bank basically saying they were going to actually add to the pressure that the Swiss National bank was going to try to hold against and so thats also part of the realization of saying its not just some speculative traders against us but the rest of europe isnt helping us. And so i do believe this ends up putting some additional pressure on downward pressure on europe. The economic travails dont seem to be changing. In terms of the dollar less of an impact. Theyre not a huge trading partner even though they are an exporter. Their economy is smaller than that of virginia. If you think about this in context, thats not the impact. But lets remember something, talk about greece right . Real smaulg, what did they say, size of indiana but it wagged the whole dog. And well just give the last word here to brian kelly. Brian, having listened to all this, i know you have been more bullish on gold, correct . Yeah. Is that how youd play this entire move buy the precious metal and wait it out . Thats one way to do it. Gold is becoming a much more Stable Currency relative to other currencies out there. And the one thing i would just say and you mentioned it a bit, this has nothing to do with the Foreign Exchange market or at least the losses has nothing to do with the Foreign Exchange market. It has everything to do with leverage. Its all about having too much leverage just like Lehman Brothers does. Foreign Exchange Markets operating fantastically today its just people got overlevered. Including a lot of Retail Investors. Glenn stevens, our thanks to you, ceo of gain capital. Catch brian kelly at fast money on 5 00. They will be talking to jens nordvig. You wont want to miss that. Coming up, oil rallying above 48 a barrel. Our next guest says now is the time to cash in on crude. Hes calling for 80 oil by the end of the year. Thats next. Then investors running into bonds this year. Is the bond boom back . Thats coming up later on the closing bell. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. The wild moves in the stock market this week have been nothing compared to the roller coaster ride in oil. Jackie deangelis at the nymex wrapping up the week for us. Good afternoon to you. I was bitter about missing yesterday. Ill tell you what happened after i tell you how we finished the week. A 5. 3 bump up stemming seven weeks of losses for crude but only up less than 1 on the entire week. Meantime, todays action we had some Short Covering some buying as we went into the weekend. We have a threeday holiday weekend. A lot of traders saying they didnt want to have a short position on as we headed into that. Brent not able to break 50, strong resistance there. So if we do break that level next week, we could see some more potential upside. Yesterday this sort of volatility. We spiked and then fell another 5 . Traders saying this is going to be the theme, volatility Going Forward in oil. A lot of people talking about a restabilizing here, is this the bottom . Consensus in the pits right now says no its not impossible to go up from here, but they do think overall we will be going lower. Kelly, back to you. Thank you so much. Good to have you back as well. The fallout in oil prices is starting to take a toll on some companies heavy invested in the oil trade. Morgan brennan has that story. So the latest and actually one of the biggest examples schlumberger. They reported better than expected earnings but it still cut 9,000 jobs in the Fourth Quarter, 7 of global workforce. The ceo also warning that more cuts could be coming. Halliburton has already cut 1,000 workers and warns there could be more to come there as well. The Company Report next tuesday. Oil and Gas Producers have been making cuts as well. Apache slashing 250 jobs 5 of its workforce. Also shell, suncor bp Eog Resources and enbridge have announced layoffs. Industry experts think this is just the beginning. So the dallas fed estimates 140,000 jobs in texas alone will be lost this year due to Lower Oil Prices and its not just from Energy Companies either, kelly. U. S. Steel laying off 750 workers at who tied leidled plants that made drill products including one in texas. Thank you. Now, my next guest says companies should ride out this drop in oil prices because oil will be back at 80 by the end of the year. Joining us now is chrisl lefacas. Whats the backstory here . Were you long on oil, bullish on oil the whole time . Thank you kelly. Actually we were optimistic on oil prices. We were caught offguard at the second half of 2014 like most economists. Oil demand expectations fell by quite a bit. There was a lot more supply that came on than we expected and the dollar is up 15 since june. So that had an effect on Depressing Oil Prices as well. Nicholas . Well, i just want to know, you know in your view its all about oil coming back more the question is this is oil coming offline or are people actually stopping it . Stopping the production of it . Chris, which way do you think it goes . Supply response, demand response . Why do we ultimately see oil above 80 by the end of the year . So our outlook is for 80 oil by the end of the year and its based on supply and demand. There will be more adjustment that comes on the supply side rather than the demand side. Right now there is more supply than there is demand so global inventories are accumulating by a rate of about 1. 2 Million Barrels per day. Thats a little over 1 of Global Demand today, but prices have fallen so far that they are below the prices that are necessary for drilling to be profitable. For an increasing number of companies as a Previous Report just mentioned. And theyre responding by cutting back their Capital Expenditure. U. S. Firms alone are on pace to cut Capital Expenditure by 20 at least. Thats about as much as they did in the Great Recession so thats the baseline. Cuts are very likely to exceed that margin and this is happening across the globe as well, and its happening in libya as well. Weve seen renewed violence between islamists and the people that are recognized internationally as being in control of the government. Libyan Oil Production has fallen. Are you convinced theres going to be a supply response here and oil to 80 80. It would mean the cap ex expend pend tours im going to be conservative and say they get cut by 30 with the majors. The trouble is and i try to check this every beakweek, im trying to find one company thats a major that has a production slow down in barrels flowing by the someday, and so far zero including the canadian oil sands. Venezuela to the extent they can pump, they pump. Unless the saudis take a lead and announce 2 or 3 million reductions immediately i dont think your scenario will play out for an 80 average this year. I think youre dreaming. Chris . Its not an 80 average for the whole year, its 80 by the end of the year. I still say youre dreaming. On the production side youre right that over time the large producers, it will take time for production to slow because theres a lag. Theres a lag between two or three quarters between when production declines and when drilling Investment Decisions are made. Oil production naturally comes offloan off offline, wells become less profitable over time. Conventional we wills deplete three times faster than nonconventional wells. The ongoing industrialization of emerging markets like china, for instance auto sales in china are four times what they were in 2006 even though many of the major cities in china have instituted caps on the number of license plates. And then also in the United States as well youre seeing automakers report high suv sales. Thats evidence that consumers are responding to Lower Oil Prices by consuming more. Thats going to happen across the globe. Chris, thank you for being here. And if you want any Furniture Mattress mac, you buy more than 7,000, oil ends over 85, he gives you a full refound. Just an fyi. Dominic chu, what can you tell us . What we have here is a new director added to the board at pepsico. That man is bill johnson, the former ceo of heinz and company. So heinz former heinz ceo bill johnson elected to pepsicos board of directors. Whats interesting about this is this was one of the directors that was a recommendation from nelson peltzs fund. You may recall they have been engaged with active discussions with pepsico about splitting up its business although now bill johnsons appointment to the board is seen as somewhat of a victory for both sides here. There are some interesting statements from all parties involved. Specifically from pepsico chairman who says bill will bring expertise and insight to the board as we continue to innovate and drive growth. Also bill johnson commenting hes ex sided to join pepsicos board of directors and looks forward to working with indra and other directors. Even nelson peltz has a statement. Nelson nelts saying quote, trian has always believed pepsico has enormous commitment. Were confident bill will be a strong and complementary addition to the pepsico board. Many observers, analysts and pundits may look at this and sigh this is possibly at least a bit of detante between nelson peltzs tri an Fund Management and the pepsico board. Thank you very much for that upset. This weekend the yield on the 10year treasury plunging to start the year. What will it mean for the stock market. And a new cnbc report finds sales of himes priced at 1 million or more cooling down. Well discuss this trend and if its a red flag for the economy. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops tdd 18003452550 even on the go. Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 so if you get a trade idea schwab can help you take it on. Tdd 18003452550 were getting a lot of questions tdd 18003452550 about organic food stocks. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd 18003452550 with indepth analysis by schwab experts. Tdd 18003452550 and if you want to run your idea tdd 18003452550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd 18003452550 our expertise is just a tap away. Tdd 18003452550 whats on your mind lisa . Tdd 18003452550 id like to talk about a trade idea. Tdd 18003452550 lets hear it. Tdd 18003452550 [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help tdd 18003452550 light a way forward. Tdd 18003452550 so you can make your move, wherever you are tdd 18003452550 and start working on your next big idea. Tdd 18003452550 tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account and you could earn tdd 18003452550 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18003452550 call 18776703357. Tdd 18003452550 or visit schwab. Com trading. Tdd 18003452550 schwab trading services. Tdd 18003452550 your goto for trading knowhow. Tdd 18003452550 stamps. Com is the best. I dont have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps. Com you can print real u. S. Postage for all your letters and packages. I have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it. Can you print only stamps . No. First class. Priority mail. Certified. International. And the mail man picks it up. I dont leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4 week trial plus 100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. Go to stamps. Com tv and never go to the post office again. Its been an extremely volatile week on wall street. The bond market has been no exception. Rick santelli is joining us to recap the wild rate swings. We appreciate you staying late. What do you think is the biggest headline from this week . I think the biggest headline is that the swiss stock market in two days has dropped 1300 points and its down 14 . So i really do and im being totally serious, boy, if youre a swiss citizen, its been a tough couple days. I think when you look overseas knowing thursdays ecb meeting, a couple things should jump out at you. Swiss rates are negative out to 10year. The 10year close minus 03. French 10year is at 63. Italian 10years at 1. 65. Those are well below our 1. 82 close. I think the biggest thing to keep sight of is that its very difficult to try to when we have the press conference from mario draghi thursday, i think theres going to be huge volatile huge but i think theres also going to be a tradeable move after that volatility. So i think Everybody Needs to do what traders did and try to create synthetic ranges for the euro, the bund some of the high quality sovereigns in Southern Europe and play wide ranges and catch it after its first move. Many think the first move will be a fake. Rick what about the step back for a second and i love what you were saying to give us a sense of how people are going to be positioning but what about the person who is just trying to figure out what these low rates mean and what kind of decision thats easy kelly. Thats easy. Buying a house and starting a business. Are we supposed to be scared and hiding under the mattress or borrowing and borrowing, and borrowing . When everybody talks about stimulus and in davos they will say it wasnt enough we need more and we need to longer and you see rates where they are, growth around the world is a global perspective. You cant artificially reform and do it all synthetically. Tough do it the oldfashioned way. Central bankers cant do it. A, if youre looking to buy a house, terrific. Youre never going to pick a better time and really i dont see that there should be any hurry. If you can get financing. In terms of starting a business its about the demand side. Because until we start to see a more purchasing aggressive globe, if you do start a business, you want to make sure its in something where you see growth potential. Trying to put on the come line like they do in dice in craps, thats not the way to go. Speaking off x brokerage. We have some breaking news on fxcm. Dominic chu has more on this story. Thats right. So were looking at fxc m resumed for trading in the afterhours on this friday afternoon after the closing bell. You had recalled premarket the shares had dropped by about 88 in trading. They had not been open for regular trading all day. Theyre now trading in the after hours down by about 70 . The last trade right now for fxcm shares 3. 80 on about 324,000 shares of volume. So, again, a relatively lighter trade in terms of the overall scheme of fxcm shares. Still, they are open for trading down 70 . They were down in the premarket today about 88 . We will bring you more details. But right now fxcm shares back on track for trading right now. Thank you dom. Robert rick, neighboranybody, is this because shareholders are getting pushed farther down the structure . Im surprised they resumed trading without having a clear idea of kind of exactly whats happening with the company. Going back to the bond yield discussion, im a little surprised we havent seen stronger stock markets this week given that basically everything ricked talk about is going to help assets and were just going to see a ramp up of what we saw last year which is any kind of asset whether its a house or car or a painting is going to go up. Thats where the original melt up scenario came from. Certainly we shouldnt overlook commercial real estate other areas where things look a little frothy. Yeah. Im not too worried about real estate right now because of these continually low rates. I was going to make a comment that rake made boo the swiss. Dont worry about them. There are 8 million of them. Most swiss citizens have euro accounts in cash and they have swiss francs but when they invest, theres more stocks in euros. So i bet if you look at the typical individual swiss today, they mark to market up 30 the value of their euro stocks and every one of them living in geneva geneva. Its not as bad as you think. I never feel sorry for the swiss. Theyre the smartest run economy on earth. Another big downward move in fxcm shares. I think if there is a fine a word its remember if central bankers pump up Financial Assets which is their goal once they get there, they need to perform whether its equities or not. They have to have the numbers, the earnings and i see all of that stretched. If the banks went from three or four years to not doing very well now as goldman earnings showed us, what that tells me is the too big to fail banks, theyre the one that is know how to spin the straw the best. The Federal Reserve treats them the best. Its working for them in indirect ways. To see them not do well speaks volumes in terms of what we have to look forward to. Appreciate your time. Coming up much more on this wild week for wall street and whats on tap. Homes listed at more than 1 million posting their slowest growth in three years. Is that major warning sign for the Housing Market . Coming up on the closing bell. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. For fastidious librarian emily skinner, each day was fueled by thorough preparation for events to come. Well somewhere along the way emily went right on living. But you see, with the help of her Raymond James financial advisor, she had planned for every eventuality. Which meant she continued to have the means to live on. Even at the ripe old age of 187. Life well planned. See what a Raymond James advisor can do for you. This volatile market has people clicking at cnbc and Allen Wastler joins us with whats heating, the hottist. Readers have zoomed on the fxcm saga. Ever since this morning when it said stock is down 90 , its kind of in trouble, people whats happening, whats happening . They love a suspense story. When Leucadia National came in and gave them that 30 million3 300 million bailout loan. 50,000 readers right on that story. Thats been burning it up. Number two, we have 175 business groups outraged at whats going on in the west coast ports. The dockworkers and management have been fighting since july over a new contract. Traffic has been slowing down. Everybody from walnut makers egg makers fertilizer guys are writing them a letter saying get it together or well start shipping our traffic somewhere else. Its friday we like to have a little fun. We put up a fun story. A 75yearold billionaire for his birthday did 75 pushups in 47 seconds. I dare a lot of people out there to do that. Have you been practicing . Apparently he does it every one of his birthdays so hes been building up. How many can you do allen . A few. Slowly. Slowly. Me too. I dont even know if i can manage a few. Thats really impressive. There you go kelly. Allen wastler, thank you so much. Allen wastler back at headquarters. Much more on cnbc. Coming up confronting terrorism front and center at the white house in the wake of the Cyber Attacks at home and terrorist murders in paris. President Obama Meeting with british Prime Minister David Cameron. Well talk to meet the press Moderator Chuck Todd about that meeting as well as the changing landscape wall street is watching and the 2016 president ial race. And is there a hiccup from the high end Housing Market . Well get the low down from our very own robert frank next. Stay tuned. Im looking forward to. For some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. Which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. Our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. Start investing with as little as fifty dollars. Ameriprise asked people a simple question in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms . I sure hope so. With healthcare costs, who knows. Umm. Everyone has retirement questions. So ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. Now you and your ameripise advisor. Can get the real answers you need. Start building your confident retirement today. Radical islamic terror and cyber terror front and center as president obama and David Cameron met today in washington. Given the urgent and growing danger of Cyber Threats we decided to expand our cooperation on Cyber Security to protect our critical infrastructure, our businesses and the privacy of our people. Joining us is nbcs meet the press moderator, chuck todd. How significant was this meeting between the two . Its significant for a couple reasons. Number one, obviously of the western European Alliance the uk is our most important ally particularly on intelligence. Sort of a step ahead of the rest of western europe when it comes to targeting terrorist cells trying to find the terrorist cells, et cetera. So on that front its important that theyre united on this. I thought what was surprising was what wasnt addressed. I think the United States and, frankly, the uk and both the Prime Minister and the president have to answer this larger question. For a decade kelly, we have been hearing two key words a lot, disrupt and dismantle when it comes to these various terrorist organizations. They disrupted some of them for a while but they havent been dismantled and now theyre back on offense again. Its almost as if weve had ten years of counterterrorism strategy, where are we . And meanwhile also were looking at the authorities in the uk potentially taking harder measures against snapchat and other encrypted services. Is this going to be an effective way to push back . I can tell you this here you have the president is delaying by the way his new review of what hes going to accept when it comes to surveillance in some of these things that of course a bunch of europeans wanted the United States to curtail and the president said he was going to curtail some of it but what you just brought up i think suddenly theres a little bit of a snap back here no pun intended when talking about snapchat, but a snap back where saying even the public realizes maybe there needs to be some more surveillance and i think this debate about the line between privacy and whats necessary for surveillance is getting fuzzy again. Is this something, chuck, you anticipate well hear more about in the state of the union in terms of specific policy measures from the president at all . No, not on cyber. They have made a big deal of saying that review is going to get delayed. They had hoped to have their, quote, recommendations ready to go by the state of the union. Thats not going to happen which leads me to wonder how is he going to address counterterrorism isis and these recent threats in the state of the union . Is he going to talk about perhaps a change in policy or we could go down the isis well here, too. Things arent going very well in the campaign against isis, at least in syria right now, and obviously our iraqi allies are not happy with the help theyre getting. This will be the first state of the union where hes really going to be i dont know how it put it coming up against all the speculation about 2016 and who the gop is going to put forward and who the democrats are going to put forward and what policies are going to and issues are going to take the forefront. So what do you expect chuck both in terms of what we hear from the president on kind of the Politics Message for the state of the union and then jody ernst and her response. I think weve i think the white house, part of it has to do with the fact that the president right after the state of the union only has a couple days in town and then he goes to india for a quick trip there, diplomatic trip hes got to make. So i think we know everything hes pushing in the state of the union. He wants to talk about sort of some middle class economic issues, the Community College for all, the paid sick leave. Very aspirational. It strikes me almost like what would be a Campaign Agenda doesnt strike me as something hes trying to ask congress to actually deal with because he knows hes dealing with a Republican Congress that wont be friendly to these ideas. Its been a historic week in a way that connects us. Were seeing the u. S. And not alone, but certainly borrowing at historic low rates whether its the 10year going below 1. 8 or the 30year going below 2. 5 . I mean these are the kind of rates that an adviser to a company would say to the company, well you should be borrowing more to take advantage of this. What kind of message, if any, what kind of attention is being drawn to this down in washington . Is the message still one of deficit and Debt Reduction . Well thats not what the president wants to do. Hes going to call for an increase in the budget. Hes going to call for a roll back in sort of these tight control sequestration, my apologies for using such a washington wonk word but the tighter sperchd erer spending controls that define the last three years of budget fights between the president and house republicans. So the question is is this now because the economy looks better, because companies can borrow at such a low rate because the government could, too . Is he able to sell this idea that this is a good time to do frskt spending and things like that . Im skeptical but well see. Chuck, thank you so much. Chuck todd joining us this afternoon. Tune in and catch metet the press, chuck breaking down what to expect from the president with his panel of experts and political players. Lux in flux. Once high flying Luxury Real Estate sales facing a slowdown always prices continue to rise. Robert frank has the details. And next week markets are closed monday for Martin Luther kings birthday but tune in tuesday Rick Harrison from pawn stars is part of our allstar panel. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. Cnbcs Luxury Real Estate report of homes priced at 1 million or more found sales fell 20 last quarter. Robert frank, whats slowing the growth . If you look yearoveryear it was the slowest growth since 2011. This could be a one off and prices were actually up for luxury homes, but volatile stock markets, that could be spooking the american buyers and overseas buyers that could be scarce because the weaker growth in china, russia latin america and the stronger dollar but that makes u. S. Homes more expensive for those overseas buyers. Red fin says quote, the top of the market is losing steam and after years of top heavy Housing Market, they say this could be a rebalancing where actually the real estate for the rich slows down and the Broader Market the middle class market recovers. Theres turning the tables. Its a year that main street wins and wall street takes it on the chin. You think about baby boomers, their kids have left for baby boomers that have left for college orgon off in the work force. Theyre the ones that built the mansions. If you had a monster home in Chestnut Hill you have moved down on to marborlo street. They sell for 1 million and they are very hot right now. Same phenomenon in connecticut by the way. So they will soften but also the high end smaller real estate in new york and everywhere else i think the markets stay buoyant there because people want smaller and less tax. Are you buying property with all of these royalties coming in. He just did two 25 million deals. San Francisco San Jose is you know unreality right now. The stuff thats happening there even for me is crazy. The rich are smart. Theyre wealthy because theyre careful and goodbye buyers. Theyre not going to overpay and they said prices are too high. By definition are you overpaying if youre spending 20 million on a property. Not on a per square foot basis compared to london hong kong yes for you and i theyre overpaying. But at the end of the day, the only way to argue that 20 million on a property is a good investment is if youre betting that somebody else is going to come in and buy it at that level. In new york theres a bit of a problem. If you look at a 12 or 15,002,500 square15 million 2500 square foot condo. That has to correct itself. Rent is going up to 30 or 40,000 a month or the price has to come down. Thats why theyre holding off and at least in the Fourth Quarter saying were not going to overpay. Is there an aspect of this that has to do with russia getting hit and suddenly the russian buyer just had to back out. Big time. Especially at the top of the market in miami and new york the russians are gone. It didnt just like they tapered off. They vanished in the last six months. Theres an old saying in miami market theyre not that old. When in doubt, find a russian. Exactly. Now they overpay. Because they as long as they had the biggest, the most expensive, they dont mind overpaying. Maybe some rationalization is coming back into the market. If you have to put your money to work somewhere. We talked about this a couple of time. The lock box phenomenon. I wonder how much thats playing in. Are people changing their perceptions. Theres a trade only a few months ago. Maybe its only 60 days now where a building went for a 1. 5 cap rate in downtown manhattan. That person believes thats either going to have doubled the rent to get a 3 cap rate which is still bad or somehow there will be Capital Appreciation on a building price like that. We saw the top there. But thats to kellys point. Theres so much wealth around the world looking for safety and security u. S. Real estate whether on the commercial or residential side is still the high ground when it comes to where to put your money. But broadly speaking going in this year i think were going to see a lot more money coming because, look the world is more uncertain today than two months ago. I hope for everybodys sake those prices come down and not the rents go up aggressively. Right. Because even the report this morning showed a little bit of a slowing down in rent prices. I bet real estate is not going to be the asset class of best appreciation. You always say you should never own a home. Right now i say rent. I really do. Watch me do it. Thats what im going to do. Im a renting dude. Well just leave it right there. Next week big brands like netflix, starbucks, American Express report results. Well preview what to expect when we come right back. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Its a big week for earnings. Lets see what the panel is expecting and watching most closely. What jumps out to you . What are you going to be watching . Theres so many forces going on. Im glad we have a three day weekend so i get three days to read. Come on. You have to take a vacation. Are you going to be prepping for all of these earnings . Mcdonalds . I expect the same choppiness from financial where you get a winner like blackrock and wells fargo but i also join jp morgan very disappointed. Bank of america what a dog. Punishment should be dulled out for those guys. It is for the shareholders. Absolutely. So you think the rest of the earnings will be the same deal. Separating the winners and the losers . Were going to hit our s p targets for 2014. Over the next four weeks well find that out and then the big debate will be whether you believe in a six, seven, or eight for this calendar year trading it forward and the big debate is the huge economy going on along the ten year bond. Somebody is wrong here. Would you put new money into a sub 2 tenure. That has to be the riskiest trade there is on the street right now. We had good earnings with the bad economy for years and now we have a descent economy and really mixed earnings which shows the connection between the two has gotten more tenuous than it used to be. Tiffany was not great. That was shocking. Thats the part of the market thats been the best. Im looking at netflix next week. They had really a doosie last time and they had a lot of new content coming out but nothing seems like a huge hit. Huge cost for them. Its a subscriber net ad number thats going to be most important. A lot of new markets coming in the second half of this year. Asia, more in europe. Australia soon. By the way, this comes at a time when amazon won its first award the other day. Hbo is going over the top too. Right. Shouldnt they be assigned a new risk premium . I look at netflix and i wonder what it is anymore. Its not really a Technology Company and they are competing with a lot more people. If youre investing in netflix youre investing its like amazon. Theyre producing content to get you to subscribe to the service. They dont even care as much about how many eye balls see the program. They want you to sign up. Well see if that remains the struggle. Thank you for being here. Have a great long weekend and good luck with your research. Fast money is coming up in just a few moments. Melissa lee whats top on. The Swiss National bank dulled out a surprise to the markets this week. Were going to delve into what other currency could be the next swiss franc surprise. Im hoping its not the u. S. Dollar. But maybe its in there. Straight to you guys. Have a great weekend. Fast money starts right now. Live from the Nasdaq Market site overlooking new yorks time square, im melissa lee. Alibaba and apple may be different. And oil hitting the bottom. Crude making a seven week losing streak and Energy Stocks leading the market higher. Healthy gains on the back of the move. The Broader Markets staging a strong rally today. Will oil keep bringing this market high. Steve what do you think . This could be a one or two day event where you see a lot of guys, everyone was so super short in the whole oil complex and energy