Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150105

U. S. Equities and we are at this point at this moment the dows down about 3. 3 from its most recent peak. The nasdaq the russell, the s p all down a like amount right now. Lots of key levels to watch today. The fact below 50 in wti crude, some of whats happening in the rate space and waiting to talk about that but again were starting off the year in a trading session that people love to extrapolate for moves from here on a weak note. It goes without saying this final hour will be very instructive. Do they start to buy on the dips . They havent yet. Or do we get even more selling come into the picture in this final hour . As mentioned, as we get into this final hour underway here the dow off 340. Nasdaq off 1. 7 . The s p off almost 2 and biggest decliners in the dow are energy names and also the financials. Theyre also a Big Industrial name like caterpillar and a lot of other companies with international exposure. Last we checked two components of the dow are positive. Merck and cocacola. Interestingly enough. Lets go to the exchange and spend sometime with these folks. As we begin the new new year cathy jones with us here today and ron wiener. Kenny pulcari. Eric restabin and mr. Market himself Rick Santelli in chicago. What do you make of this rollover we see today as we mentioned . We mentioned really began in earnest this morning in europe. Whats going on is extremely significant with regard to whats going to make a change. Next month, next quarter, three quarters from now. I think the news out of europe isnt going to change dramatically in a positive fashion any time soon. And Mario Draghis going to be front and center stage. With respect to energy hey, investors paid for technology that resulted in much lower prices for everybody. And if they go bust the technologys still there and a company after them will buy it cheaper and a company after that buys it cheaper. I think its the gift that keeps on giving. Investors, thank you for investing. But sayonara. Middle class shouldnt care. They were sayonarad for two or three years. I will tell you this. If were going to go test the alltime low close at 138, i would have to say that bund yields going negative for that to happen. If you hadnt heard, jeff gunlach in los angeles earlier today saying that even if the fed starts raising rates early in the year short rates, he could see the bond year on the 10year yield go to 1. 38 this year. Cathy, what happens if were in that situation as today where the longer end of the curve isnt budging or moving lower . Yeah. I think people forget that this is happened twice before. This is the third time quantitateive easing as ended and i think its because when the Central Banks are butt l liquidity in people go to risk assets and very optimistic Inflation Expectations go up. When they pull back on that liquidity, particularly the fed, the central bank of the world, when they pull back rates did down and Inflation Expectations tumble and then we had the soaring dollar falling oil prices. Its all just come together to lead us to these lower yields. Kathy, whensats the diagnosis . You mentioned inflation. Other investors say that shouldnt be the concern here. In other words, what should an investor trying to figure out whether to make the investments based on a 10year next year what are they supposed to do . What conclusions to come to here . Well, i think the signal from the market is really coming from the flatter yield curve so we have deflation in parts of europe and overall now the core is getting closer and closer today. Germanys numbers closer to no inflation, deflation. So the deflation issue is more abroad than domestically but an investor needs to focus on if youve been in the bond market in the morris i can sectors of the market that got very overvalued because the riskfree rate was 0, even though the riskfree rate is going down the risk of the fed is the rate is going up and you have to reprice those asets. Kenny, second trading day of the year. Friday was the first. But heres the first full week an were seeing decided weakness. Everybodys back at the table. Right . What im curious to see is not seeing like this really big pickup in volume. Not seeing a panicky capitulationlike trade yet. When you see much more activity and activity on the downside and today would be one more concerning and i think its kind of a reassessment. People looking at the last two weeks of december. The market taking the new highs once again on low volume and so trader types push the market to maybe levels where it should not have been and no reason to come down. Right . Everyone was so happy about the end of the year and it was a good year and blah blah blah. Now i think what youre getting is kind of reassessment. Certainly europe and greece are not helping the situation by any stretch. And so therefore, when you have that negative tone it overflows across all sectors and what you are seeing today. Eric in light of the Fund Flow Data we have interest in equities last year and especially in the last couple of weeks, what do you make of that . Well, i think a lot of people are attracted to equities because i think on balance its a good story for equities. The central tension seeing play out today is the one of the u. S. Versus the rest of the world s. The u. S. Strength going to capitulate to the outside of the u. S. Or the rest of the worlds economies get better and join the u. S. In a strength per perspective perspective . We think thats whats going to happen but we think equities is good investment. Shortterm volatility we had a lot of signs in midnovember and beyond that the market was overbought. So i would expect a lot of choppiness in the short term and eventually the actual fundamentals prove out and see a good year in equities. Whats the endyear target . 2150 which gives you an expected rate of return on the s p 500 right about 7 with dividends included. Ron wiener it became very much envogue the last couple of weeks as people making the prognostications for 2015 to say buy europe now. We see value there. At this point. But the dax, lost about 3 this morning. That is not the beginning not the trend per se. Its one big day of selloff and what do you make of that . Are you inclined to lookover seas for better value than here . We say stay in the u. S. I have no idea whats going on in europe. I dont trust their Balance Sheets how theyre marking to market their bonds. Their government bonds. Stay in the united states. Listen. Bull markets dont die of old age. They die of overvaluation. They die of euphoria. I dont see overvaluation. I see solid valuation but not overvaluation. I certainly dont see euphoria. I think like last year and the year before we dont see 10 dips. I think theres so much money chasing the American Market now that i think its a solid place to be and companies are not doing badly. U. S. Companies. You know . Its the market that changes. The companies are strong. It is a good point, ron. Listen. Again, people shouldnt confuse market prices with the value of the investments. Wheres value . Give us names or areas that come to mind in this market. Sure. Again, we dont see anything dirt cheap. The only thing that is are dirt cheap is maybe sifting through the mlp market. Emp companies way too cheap. Pipeline companies way too cheap. Other than that you need 12 to 24month time horizon for that. Other than that we think plenty of companies. Does that include oil at these levels or does that predicate some kind of rebound . Because thats a risk here on a recommendation. Rigs will be shut down. Well end up having more supply and start them back up again. What we think is youre better off in the mlp in the pipeline space where youre getting paid very handsomely just to sit through. We think thats great. However, i think technology is probably the place to be and health care. Banks are a little bit suspect right now depending on the Interest Rates. But technology alibaba, Companies Like that geez theyre going to rule the world in about ten years. You can hold it for a listening time. National average for gasoline in this country down 102 straight days. So i did the math this morning and by about march 15th gasoline should be free in this country. If this continues. Good news there. So will stocks if we have days like this. Rick santelli euro tanked this morning and already the dollar at 11 1 2year high i think it was. I mean are we stretching it right now . Is this just more of a continuation of the trend, do you think . Well i think that the u. S. Is one of the few economies right now thats weldy verse if ied. So on the Foreign Exchange side you look at canada australia. Onetrick ponies with the energy and commodity sectors. It is a positive dollar story because the rest of the worlds currencies cant stack up with the economy behind the greenback. Think of where we could be without impediments. Maybe the new congress will work on that. Thats coming. Well work on that in the next block in fact. Stay right there. We have about 50 minutes to go here. The dow off 336 points as mentioned with just a couple of green spots in an otherwise sea of red out there. The s p off almost 2 . Nasdaq down better than 1. 5 . Much more ahead on the selloff. Is it really about oil, europe . Well talk about a lot more coming up here in a moment. Stay tuned. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. 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For a free quote today,call Liberty Mutual insurance at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back. Checking in to see how the markets been doing today, you miss add barn burner much of the trading session. Near the lows. Weakness in european markets, weakness in crude oil, closing around 50 a barrel and then electronics session continued below that. That takes us to lows we havent seen since april of 2009. And the s p 500 index, this is all 500 components just a few, the top line basically, with green. The rest of it is all red, kelly. For sure. We are adding in bob pisani here at the new york stock exchange. Bob, well start with you. Which jumps out to you . Wheres the buyers buy the dippers . Macro themes that worked towards the end of 2014 continuing to work into 12015 and traders go with the trends. Weak euro strong dollar. Number two, you have problems in the Energy Sector so short the euro. Short europe. Short a little Global Growth and short energy. I mean the energy names, its breath taking the declines in the estimates. 2015 estimates down 21 compared to 2014. A month ago supposed to be down 3 . I havent seen a collapse inest mait estimates since when . 2008. Bob we showed that chart last week about the correlation as oil going lower and stocks and then suddenly theydy diverged. Is oil good for the market . Well, i think the question netnet, we think low oil prices are good for the u. S. Economy. We think its good for the globe. The biggest risk that it presents is that with this kind of oil priceing, you have Political Tension in oilproduce oilproducing nations srks that a problem, you know, maybe not a question of what if a countrys going to have a problem, its what country will have a problem and does that actually have a contagion effect . Probably not. Ron, this goes back to your point of u. S. Companies and so many have international exposures. Are you looking to the small caps . We are light in small caps. We are global and small in foreign and small caps but its more for safety. More not to take the risk of dropping a lot than it is for going up. We look smart for doing it but it was for safety. The gdp about 14 from exports. Its important. The dollars probably just as important that u. S. Companies we think the multinationals will not do as well as they could otherwise do if europe wasnt going down. But we ceos did a great job of managing that. Our bets still on the apples and microsofts and the companies that do a lot of exporting. Asias still growing. A big misnomer is china may only grow at 5 but it grew 11 , 12 , 18 , you know 9 7 . You compound these numbers on a billion people and thats a lot of customers so the numbers are still really large. We think the apples and companies do well. Maybe not as well because of the global economy. Still good. Kathy, are there parameters you are watching in terms of the yield curve . Could you see 1. 38 . Thats extreme on jeff gunlachs part. Were at 2. 03 on the 10year. Right. Below 2 and much lower then or what do you think . Yeah. Below 2 presumably, i think part of it is because the high yield market is really adversely affected by the drop in Energy Prices so about 15 of the index is Energy Companies and why the spreads and you get a flight to safety probably in treasuries. Maybe 1. 82 the next target. Thats extremely. Still optimistic on the economy. Its just the inflation picture that has changed a lot. Kenny, what is the focus of the guys on the floor here . What do they follow most closely and how much talking about a january effect . Not so much the january effect but really next week starts earnings and people talking about earnings and you have friday and thats always a big number but really the look forward is going to be about three things earnings ecb and greece and the stronger dollar and mean and analysts did a good job of reworking the numbers. Big Multinational Companies make up half of the s p 500. You shouldnt be surprised, right . Only be surprised in the Forward Guidance now based on the very uncertain situation in europe and greece. Walk us through the last 40 minutes here. I mean do we see we getter get the buy the dippers or selloff more here. It doesnt feel like the buy the dipper guys are here at the moment. It feels lethargic and heavy to me and a day like this you have the buyers that see, they see how anxious the sellers are. Theres no reason to come right in and buy it. If they wait and patient, the sellers come to them. Thfr, i think thats what youre going to see. Bob . I think kenny hit on an important point here. What will change the conversation . Stability in oil and in the dollar. Thats the obvious answer. But beyond that i think some kind of commentary once the earnings situation comes out from a lot of company that is are doing better because of lower oil. Theyre lowering the estimates for energy we know that. Nobodys raising things much for consumer names and the transport names to benefit of lower oil 689 i would like to hear about that in the coming weeks. Great point. Thank you all. See you later. Thank you for your thoughts on the markets today. We have about 40 minutes left. See what happens. The dow down 331 points near the lows for the session right now. And you see see two components in the industrials and positive. Everybody else negative. Cocacola and merck. Look at caterpillar down almost 6 . Certainly theres a downgrade. Maybe im reading that wrong. 5. 7 is what i saw. Move over there and see what it is. Chevron, as well off 4 . Goldman sachs down 3. 5. Jpm and dupont as well. Big pressure. The dow posting the worst loss in a month and last time we bounced back right away. What will happen this time around . More on oil as it skids again dropping below 50 a barrel for the first time in almost 6 years. Find out how low the pros think crude could go and whether it will be freebie march 15th. Welcome back. 35 minute it is go here and pretty strong declines across the board. The dow down almost 2 today. Off 330 points right now as the s p gives up 36. The nasdaq down 71. Morgan brennan, a couple of minutes to tell us about the movers. Oh my gosh well begin with the big oil companies, all sliding as oil hits a fresh 5 1 2year low. Chevron, exxonmobil hesse, bp all names in the red today and a tough day for caterpillar, as well. Its the biggest laggard in the dow. Jpmorgan downgrading the stock. On the flip side Gilead Sciences sigher after cvs health core said it would give preferred status and that stock up about 2. 5 . Rival abbvie falling. We end with Isis Pharmaceuticals higher after Johnson Johnson said it would pay the company up to 835 million to for the option to license drugs for the bowel. Cnbc exclusive, isis chief dr. Stanley crooke will be a guest on mad money 6 00 p. M. Eastern here on cnbc. Back to you. Good stuff. Thank you very much. Contrary to popular belief the santa claus rally takes place during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Got that . That means that today traditionally according to the stock tradersal ma al maal almanac, this is the final day. Make sure the kids are out of the room right now but this year, at least theres been no santa claus, virginia. Historically, it does not bode well for the markets. Talk about it. Jeff hesch with us and ed kian. Jeff, so how many times have we had this kind of a move and whats it mean for the future . Well i mean this is only a down santa claus rally in the s p about 13 previous times since 1950. It is not a death knell for the market. We like to combine all indicators and when all three are down we have only had one up year 82 after a big correction and otherwise, you know, four down three flat so its not a great sign but its not end. Would be nice to see positive action the rest of the week and for the month. How much weight, ed do you place on these seasonals, this one in particular . Not much. I have to say that the seasonals starting on wall street i didnt believe at all and year after year i see them more and more but i think more important are the fundamentals and i think with good Economic Growth pretty good Earnings Growth low valuations relatively speaking low Interest Rates and inflation and Lower Oil Prices and stronger dollar those are all pretty good things for the stock market. Unless low oil prices and low Interest Rates mean deflation which is not good for equities here, right . Stocks have done pretty well in deflation. Not too many times for that but not impossible to do okay with deflation and more likely is we get low inflation and low inflation actually could be with us for all of this year. You know im just wondering, jeff, with reliability of this gauge in particular, theres a santa claus rally and does the january effect refer to the first trading day of the year or the whole month of january goes . January barometer the whole month for the s p of january. January effect is small caps outperforming large caps in january which has shifted and we are still seeing some of that. But, you know well wait until the end of the month to really change the outlook. Ours is kind of positive. What ed is saying with respect to the fundamentals is very valid and i have an outlook for upside in the first half. The bull market is a little bit tired. I think theres some upside here through 2015. You know what they say, ed . If santa should fail to call bears will call at broad and wall. Its amazing thats the songwriter coming up with that. Very good. Volatility everybody keeps saying, more volatility this year. Do you agree . Why . Volatility is a normal part of market behavior. Its been unvolatile and i think its right to expect it to be higher and overdue for a higher volatility year but i think the most important thing is the direction and expect downturns and thats why its risk. When do you stop buying stocks . People i think it was, ron wiener here saying bull markets dont die of old age but overvaluation. How long will you keep buying into this market . Theres four things the look for for signs of a bear market 20 or more drop. Recessions shocks excessive valuation and unexpected policy changes. Right now, i dont see any of those things. There could be a shock, you can never rule that out. I dont see anything big enough to derail this bull market. Stock market bear markets usually lead the recession so you know market being one out better leading indicators not necessarily prudent to wait for the recession, you know signal the end of the bull market. I think well look to seasonals for i could cases. The last time best six months were down we had the bear market so well be looking to valuations, breakdowns and seasonals for indications. Youll wait until the end of the month, jeff to reevaluate your year end call . Yes. But were reevaluating all the time. Happy new yore. Thank you for joining us. I like that. Sos the market. The dow off 323. It is amazing to look at the index just above 17,500 and celebrating 18,000 all of what two or three weeks ago . S p down and nasdaq down and thats the perfect performer. Europe versus u. S. Its back again. Which market should you be investing in this year . Its seema modi versus dominic chu. Coming up. Up next oil breaching 50 a barrel for the First Time Since april 2009. How low will it go from here . We have pros to weigh in. Your moms got your back. Your friends have your back. Your dogs definitely got your back. But whos got your back when you need legal help . We do. Were legalzoom, and over the last 10 years weve helped millions of people protect their families and run their businesses. We have the right people onhand to answer your questions, backed by a trusted network of attorneys. So visit us today for legal help you can count on. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Welcome back. Were wondering in the final hour whether the buy the dippers come back or sell things even more and so far neither happened. Kind of Holding Steady here with the industrial average down 325 points. As you mentioned, kelly, holding at that level. See if that can hold into the close here with the s p down 37. The nasdaq down 73. A lot of investors still waiting to see how the move in oil shakes out. Jackie deangelis is covering that decline and not only below 50 but a huge downward move. Thats right. Intense selling pressure at the close. Thats a pattern we have been seeing over the past few weeks with downward momentum. We closed at 54. 04. Trading under 50 for the first time today and the after hours session. This is a psychological level for a lot of traders. Theyre telling me the next stop is 48 and a lot of people changing their tune from looking at crude at a four handle the now talking about it to the lows that we saw in the economic crisis in the 30s and thats something to think about. Retail gas prices going lower on this, as well. Down for 102 days straight. Thats a record. National average 2. 20. We talked about it last week and down nine cents and going this low, the question is when does this really have a drag on the economy . As you can see, oil prices impacting the stock market and that little bit of stimulus we are going to get from consumers may not be enough to offset bigger problems to see. Back the you. Thank you. Next guest says oil is heading to 45 and maybe even lower. Joining us is tom petrie chairman of petrie partners. Welcome back. Happy new year. Hi bill. Happy new year to you, too. A couple of years ago we were marveling at 100 and wondering why. Now half that price and wonder yg theyre that low. What is your version . Why are we as low as we are and how much lower do you think . Well, we have brought on a lot of supply. 3 1 2 Million Barrels a day of gain from the lows. And thats not going to be shut in by low prices until unless prices go a lot lower than they are already. On the margin variable cost is what matters and so in this period where theres no swing producer in the form of opec the pressure stays on. I think well test lower unless we get a sign of stimulus to global Economic Growth or some kind of an interruption in some of the supply overhanging the market. Libya being an example. Tom, how likely what do you think the odds are that we go back to the 33, 2009 low for oil . Well i dont think its the certainty but it wouldnt surprise me too much. One thing we learn from that experience in 08, 09 the lower you go the more you set up a correction. We didnt spend much time in the 30s going down that time. I do worry this time that well spend more time in these lower prices somewhere below 50 because we have got a lot of additional production thats still going to come on in the u. S. Even with the lower price environment and the investments made last year and the ability to hook up the wells is just occurring now. So this is going these are headwinds that well be dealing with certainly for several quarters. But is this a story about oversupply or is it about demand . I mean the slowdown in europe the problems in japan, japan imports 100 of their oil as we know. Is that the problem . Is it just a combination of the two . Do you see demand picking up at some point . It is a combination but i give more weight to the demand side. The problem, bill is that we dont have a good measure of real demand. Lets give you an example. From january of last year until april, the chinese were buying over half a million and sometimes as much as 700,000 barrels of oil a day for the reserves. That looked like demand. Its actually just buying oil for storage for future use. Now, the absence of that which we have had more recently looks like a decline in demand. So demand has slowed down but still growing. The comments you heard earlier about china, chinas still growing and the compounding of the growth at 5 or 6 is on a billion people is still important. Right. So we should be careful about overestimating that absence of demand. Meanwhile, tom, quickly, is there any way to play the oil storage story . If it seems production will continue and may be dealing with a glut . We will be. Most of the plays require large amounts of capital. Starting six months ago people were buying tankers to store oil. As a result tanker rates are up. Its hard to find the real plays on that side of it. At this point. Thats another interesting reason why the rates are up tom. People think its a developmenter of Global Demand and other stuff going on here. Thank you. Great point. Its plenty complex and we need to keep an eye on libya. Just think, with that explosion they had, they destroyed 40 plus million of oil in an instant. They would rather fight than share the benefits. So that may be a factor that comes along in more than one place and if it does that might begin to change a little bit but not too much. Literally a scorched earth theory there. All right. Tom petrie good to see you. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Is this me . Yes, it is. We are holding, we are Holding Steady right here. 17,500 the level with the Dow Jones Industrial average down 320 points and howd you like to be a shareholder in coke and merck today . I mean theyre up. Not only are they up but merck up 1. 5 . How would you like to be San Francisco fed president John Williams . You could have seen a turn around in the market attributing a turnaround. No response. Absolutely no response in the market. The dye was cast already. Exactly. 20 moneys to go an ugly session. Both sides of the atlantic. Which side will do better this year . Is it going to europe or the u. S. . Seema modi live in london to take on dominic chu for a heated matchup. Stay tuned. Selloff in oil and sending stocks into a tailspin today. All right. We have dominic chu saying u. S. Markets with r the place to be this year and seema mody says theres more value across the pond. We hope to hear from her shortly. Dom, take it away first. The u. S. Markets, again, if you have make a case for why the u. S. Is better than Europe Center first around whens happening with the economy here. Whatever you feel about whats happening, we do know that at least the Employment Situation is slowly Getting Better and a lot of thats translating into a better economy. Look at gross domestic product, versus other developed countries around the world, the u. S. Gdp is painting a slightly positive picture. Nobodys saying a run away market for the economy and when you have gdp growing and indicating between 3 and 4 possibly on the optimistic side thats a good reason to be in the u. S. Stocks. I also spoke to Mohammed Al Arian about the reasons that the u. S. Hypothetically is a better place to be. First of all, he say that is the economy in europe is much more leveraged to the geopolitical risks in ukraine and russia. Also companies in the u. S. Have a lot of cash on their Balance Sheets. That means that they can pay dividends and more than a lot of other countries around the wormd, the doctor says that the u. S. Made real strides in strengthening the Banking System and financial infrastructure reducing the Systemic Risk that goes with large Financial Institutions and a handful of reasons why he thinks that the u. S. Market is better relative to the u. S. Market. All right. Listen dom. Those are all valid points. But at some point, i mean u. S. Stocks have been seeing three consecutive years of gains. Investors will have to decide whether u. S. Stocks the good news is already priced in. When in fact are u. S. Stocks going to be seen as expensive . When you look at valuation, europe does look more attract attractive. Europe 600, seen as the equivalent of the s p 500 is trading at an equivalent. A second reason to see european stocks outperform in 2015 is central bank policy. Similar to what you saw in the u. S. And bad news was good news for the market. Thats whats happening here in europe. Yes, we got a disappointing read on inflation out of germany. Lowest level in five years. But that strengsens the case for mario draghi to unveil fullblown quantitative easing and something we could hear about january 22nd. Third point i would make is the currency space. The weaker euro trading this morning at 9 1 2 low against the u. S. 9 12szyear low against the u. S. Dollar. A boon for european earnings. Morgan stanley is expecting to see a 10 rise in european corporate earnings much of that having to do with the boost from the weaker euro. Dom . All right. I will say one counterpoint to that. Ill say that i was just speaking to michael giyad and just points out the look at the european markets and the euro we do know that the euro is positive core lated and translated to trading of the european markets and if you expect the euro to weaken further, it suggests that european equities follow the euro down as well. Thats a trading side of things and another reason why i think the u. S. Markets are at least for now the better place. Seema, a final repost before we let you go . Well i just want to point out that greece, of course is a big risk for the markets, yes. Especially if greece does leave the eurozone and if that causes a contagion effect if you will. But with that said dan greenhouse of btig joined us this morning. Is greece a concern for your clients . His answer no. Hey, seema, what did you do for boxing day, by the way . What did i do for boxing day . Yeah. I left on Christmas Eve to go back to the u. S. For the holidays and didnt get to experience boxing day and my colleagues were definitely out there shopping. Im sure you enjoyed it out here. I no. I was just wondering. Ill say this. I know what i was doing on boxing day. What wasich was what . Filling in on seema mody. So im just i guess thats what happens when you go to london to do that. 4 00 a. M. Shift here and not a flight. That would be correct. Absolutely right. Dom and me here on boxing day. Seema, thank you for staying up late for us tonight. Appreciate it. 12 minutes to go here. And again, not much of a bid. We have the dow off 311 points. S p off 36. S p off 72. Down day on wall street. Pros coming up tell us what and if theyre buying at all this hour. Stay tuned. No question about that. But your erectile dysfunction that could be a question of blood flow. Cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be Ready Anytime the moments right. You can be more confident in your ability to be ready. And the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in excess. Side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. To avoid long term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any allergic reactions like rash, hives, swelling of the lips tongue or throat or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30tablet trial. Eight minutes left. The dow is coming back. They have flipped. The pressure was to sell for much of the afternoon and then all of a sudden right at about 3 45 art cashin said the bias to buy. Well see, though if it adds to more here and close with less of a gain than 300 points. 2 is the marker to watch and not done a down day like that in a while. Joining us is anthony khan and j. J. Canahan. You like the economy. The economys not the market. Right . The economy is not the market. The market is fearful with the oil price declines. You start screaming on a roller coaster and realize it was a good ride. Is this more about our economy or european economy right now . I think theres the greek economy, european economy and the uncontrollable decline of oil prices three or six months from now, people will settle down. Right now theres nervousness. J. J. Theres significant flows into u. S. Equities. Investors need to be worried here and waking up the first trading day to a big decline . They have to worry about more volatility. Not necessarily a worry. Just a fact of life for 2015. We have been in historically low volatility volatilities. Up above 20 on the vix and crude oil wont settle down any time soon and no commodity that the moves last longer than you think it can. Wouldnt surprise me to see that and high volatility for the first six to nine months ooft year. You were saying last time with us that the customers buying on dips and wondering what about right now. In december we saw the same thing. A big down move. Middle of the month. Clients picking up apple, gopro. And also encourages to see the stocks sold near 52week highs. Bank of america, target, walgreens and nice thing is maybe the greater volatility will help clients realize you dont have to stick with something forever. Times to get in and get out and part of the positions. Well come back and bring you back here for the closing countdown and see how we do. If well it is already having an impact. The amount of stock that was to buy on the close and we are well off the lows of the session right now heading toward that close. And dow components in particular weighing on the market coming back. A tough day for caterpillar, chevron and the financials. Closing bell countdown coming up straight ahead. By being apart of it. everyone cheers glad you made it buddy. Thanks for inviting me. Thanks again my friends. For everything for all your help. Through all lifes milestones our trusted advisors are with you every step of the way. Congratulations thanks for helping me plan for my retirement. You should Come Celebrate with us. Id be honored. Plan for your goals with advisors you know and trust. So you can celebrate today and feel confident about tomorrow. Chase. So you can. This is sort of a quick enkapsen encapsulation of what happened today. Look at the dax. Down about 3 . About 600point move for the dow down 300 points today and here it is and finished on the low of the session. German dax did at 9473. The only hit for the market today, the price of oil going to an almost sixyear low. Closed in the open outcry session and then electronics session lower. Decline of 5. 4 to begin the year. How does that add up . The dow selloff right from the open this morning. At the low we were down about 350 points or thereabouts. Little bit of a comeback here and down 300 points right now. Deflation, Oil Prices Going lower. Interest rates as low as they are. Is that were in right now or heading do you think . I think clearly beginning of the year seeing deflation in europe and thats a fear and one of the concerns. We saw the Inflation Numbers out of germany. All that a big concern. If you look at all of the numbers, going back to the 1990s, when Oil Prices Drop by more than 40 , 6 months later, s p 500 up more than 10 in expansions and 3 in recessions. So as an oil importer lower Energy Prices, even though theyre scary are good for the equity market. Would you guys buy energy at this point . Energy stocks that have been obviously hit hard by this decline here. You talk about customers buying on dips s. That something they should be buying . They did last month, the halliburtons and rigs. You dont have to buy the bottom. Be very careful about catching the falling knife aenl its human nature and you want to predict where the bottom is going to be and thats what i said earlier. The moves tend to last longer and particularly with commodities and may be downside on crude and whens interesting to me is heading to earnings to hear what the ceos say about the effect of crude with deflation. That would be interesting. Thank you for joining us today. So here we go. First full trading week under way and with a big down note the dow down about 330 points. Is this a beginning of a new trend lower or buying the dips tomorrow . Wait until you see the panel that kelly has coming up right now. Ill see you tomorrow, kelly. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. The dow off 324 points. Pretty equal declines in the dow and s p 500. Both off about 1. 8 . S p giving off 37 points. Nasdaq down almost 74 today and a lot of other declines across internet space and like netflix and biotechs and not just an oil still to. Now todays panel. Joining me now, tom lee, larry kudlow and our very own dominic chu and with us for more on todays Market Action is guy adami. Great to have everybody here. Happy new year one and all. Tom, not a happy beginning for the markets. How much of a concern is that . Its kelly, disappointing to start the first two days of the trading year down. I think the markets trying to understand lower oil, strong dollar. Europe. But i dont think it really changes the underlying positive story for equities and i think its going to ultimately be higher. Guy, i know larry, youre still saying this is a strong guy. Guy, are you still worried about the slowdown deflation story here . Are you on that side of the fence in the camp today . Yeah. Happy new year everybody. I have been on that side of the fence. Larry disagree with me. He is a lot smarter than me about these things and i have the utmost respect of him and my point continuing to be how can the largest economy on the planet be cut in half and all backed up by the fact that global Interest Rates, not just the u. S. Interest rates around the planet continue to go lower. I dont know what it means but certainly feels like we near a deflationary environment. The only thing bolstered by is the u. S. Equity market until obviously today. You just wonder whos telling the right story . Because i believe that one of them some point has to be extraordinarily wrong. And i happen to think its the equity market. Yeah. Extraordinary, larry, looking at germany, the 10year at half a point. Japan, 0. 3. We continue to make new lows. U. S. 10year almost below 2 . Happy new year. My friend, guy adami is great, a, a Great American a great investor, a great tactician and strategist. Nothing but compliments. I have known him all these years and terrific. But i am going to continue to argue i had a feeling there was a but. Not a but directed at guy. Im more in toms camp. I believe the strong dollar and low oil prices are very very positive for the American Economy. This is not a demand slump shock. All the usda that is Getting Better, not worse. Okay . We actually moving to 3 trend line. So i think thats good. I think even with the dropoff in Energy Profits will still rise 5 to 10 . Thats not a bad mark for the stock market. Last point. America is the engine of growth for the rest of the world. Europe is not. Japan is not. Can i make this point . A strong dollar with falling cost structure for American Business we will buy their goods and services and help them to recover despite their structural barriers. Im with you. I respect todays trading. It is rough stuff as tom said. Im an optimistic. Dom, what ed said earlier, outlining a positive environment for the markets and for the economy. Fine what ends the bull market . He said four possible ways or things that would end it reasons to get out. One, recession. Overvaluation being the other. Big policy shock or a shock like perhaps the decline in oil prices which he said didnt think qualified so you know looks at the landscape. Doesnt see them on the who rye soi and thinks the market can keep going. There are none of those circumstances are evident in the market right now. We are not close to a recession. You can argue 3 growth is not fantastic but certainly not bad and it is not recession their. Valuations argument has been yet theyre stretched. 18, 19 times trailing earnings, may be a little bit on the stretch side. I remember back in 1999 and 2000 and the s p back some points in the internet boom trading 30 times earnings and others say theres a policy shock at play. Right now, doesnt seem like theres that policy shock. Washington is at least working through its problems right now. Theres no fear of a government shutdown. The u. S. Economy is going well. Ill say that one big wild card for lot of investors out there is just this idea that markets in a normal bull market can go down. News flash. They can go down. Thats good. Can i expand just on dominic makes a good point. I want to add to this. A revolution in washington. Okay . Im going to say that with the Republican Congress the redistributionist policies of the white house are going to give way to growth policies. There will be no miracles but at the margin Energy Reform maybe a pretty good Corporate Tax cut, Health Care Reform these are all progrowth. The political economical environment is improving. Exports, we are gradually loosening it up. Why not go fullon and let the u. S. Export that crude . I tweeted that point. You are so smart. Maybe i saw it. No no. I said getting the Keystone Pipeline is not enough. Open federal fields for fracking and end all limits on exports. Youre dead right. That helps the rest of the world, too. We talked and bob talked about this collapse in Energy Earnings certainly something to take into consideration when we start to move through the period and a volatile one for a lot of names. Can the rest of the earnings and s p 500 hold up in light of that . Yes. I think that thats going to be the positive surprise. We know lower gasoline is a true transfer of wealth to consumers. Labor market is strong and i think outside of energy where theres slowdown in cap x, Capital Spending with catalysts in 2015 with the age of economy. You know . Reinflationary senses and i think companies feeling better about the political outlook. China better. Southeast asia better. Mexico better. Israel better. There are pockets around the world that are doing better. Lets talk about your favorite one right now which is europe and bring in michael giyad of the concerns in this market lately and the extent to which investors need to be focused on this qe or lack thereof to see on the 22nd. Yeah. You know am i the only one that thinks this is crazy of discussion of qe in europe . Every single round of qe done here in the u. S. Or in japan basically failed to spark reinflation or lasting inflation. And yet, somehow this is the narrative that qe is needed to get europe out of deflation. Thats not the case. I know this is perhaps im going to point it out. 10year yield at least in the u. S. Moved up and generally a sense that you know that was for positive reasons, not negative ones. If falling yields are a reflection of something that is driven by outside forces beyond the market and not reflected or reflective of growth and Inflation Expectations wont do anything . I dont see how it could. You dont have Inflation Expectations rising anywhere. I dont know why this is perceived to be the panacea. The reality is to get a change thats beneficial longer term in europe, the best qe is pain. The question though i guess, to some extent is just the portfolio shifting effect. In other words its not really so much about doing something quote unquote with rates but pushing investors into risk in europe to hopefully catalyze the markets. You would see greek bond yields rising. Theyre falling. You should see money going into junk debt and the markets on a relative basis to very strong u. S. Marks get more of a bid, right . As money shifts out of outperforming, buy low, sell high. You havent seen that. By the way, i want to stand up for mikes point. Qe is not the ultimate answer. Never has been. Wasnt here. Wont be there. But i would say this. We need to get some resolution about greece. Either the germans want greece in or out. I do believe that is hurting the market today. Ecb will rescue it. Look. Ms. Merkel make a decision. You want them in or out. Tom, what is your take on this one . Well you know markets dont like uncertainty. I think it definitely weighed on markets, but at the end of the day, the crisis and the risk to the markets today compared to two years ago is vastly different. I think it shouldnt be something investors say i have to sell equities because of whats happening in europe. Where do you see the most value . You know i still think you want to be betting where markets are strong and the underlying economy is strong and i think you want to bet on u. S. And the pe expanding and i think the idea that labor markets are really going to lead us towards that reinflationary environment. Favorite areas . Tech financials and health care. Huh. Im thinking dom, back to the debate earlier. Financials perhaps being more controversial. By the way, if those three sectors outperform youre almost guaranteed of a better market because those three sectors make up nearly half of the overall market. Can i just add manufacturing . Because now with oil and energy industrials . More natural gas than oil. The industrial Industrial America becomes much more competitive but thats caterpillar for a quick example. We dont have much time. Down 6 with maybe 30 revenue exposure to oil and gas. I cant explain it. No no. Thats the explanation s. That creating an opportunity . Yes, yes. For people who believe theres a bigger issue at play. The reality of europe is perhaps a symptom of a much bigger problem, seeing the bursting of the last great bubble. Something i brought up a few times. A faith in Central Banks to fix all problems. You are seeing the euro corerelate to the economies and beneficial to european equities and talking apt u. S. Domestic growth and decoupling but that doesnt work with the case of preqe. The way the market is acting not just here in the u. S. But globally is almost classic with postqe ending environments. Stock bond ratio falling and suddenly refreshing of the fear. It is a good point and kathy making last hour as well. Guy, a last word to you, sir . 1956 is the 50 correction in the s p off the 1820 low and the recent high. Back to toms point. Real quick. Yes, theres a savings in energy but thats more than offset by the Rising Health care costs and larry larrys point of europe, yes, the individually the countrys not that meaningful but its as big as the u. S. Economy with far more people in it. Those are things to be looking at and i invite you all with the 8year anniversary on fast money. New set second floor. We love it. We love it. I saw some of the early pictures and looks like great stuff. Thank you for being here. Best of luck. Happy new set show and theres much more coming up at 5 00 p. M. With guy and the rest of the crew on fast money asking Dennis Gartman of todays selloff and how much further crude has to fall. Now todays selloff making it a rough start for the bulls this year. Is it a sign of things to come in 2015 . More of the special market coverage. Welcome back a. News alert on Morgan Stanley. Mary thompson . Gallin marsh is former employee who stole and posted information evidently, about 900 Wealth Management clients of Morgan Stanley on the internet. That information quickly taken down. Morgan stanley said after it was discovered december 27th and mr. Marsh employed at Morgan Stanley according to his Linkedin Profile 11 years and 7 months and he worked at bear stearns prior to that. We are back with the panel and cnbc market allstars for more. Rick santelli Bertha Coombs and bob pisani. Bertha bertha, we may understand why and whats happening throughout . What did you see at the nasdaq . You saw tech under pressure. Chips were a boozebig losers. A lot of banking sectors with exposure in texas like texas bank shares hit hard today and where people continued to sell. Interesting thing i found was what was working even as we were selling off at the end of the year was working again today. Biotechs managed to eke out a gain in terms of the arc of bio it is tech index and biotechs are up. Alltime high after being up 70 this year. On a deal with j j. The ceo will be on with jim cramer and folks looking bullishness with helalth care names. Rick, we were talking about the space and which one is most important for the direction of stocks from here . You know i think that the Energy Market is important. But i really think that its still going to be the dynamics of how all the parts of Central Banks will line up. Mario draghis got a lot of pressure on him right now and a lot of whats going on in europe putting their rates down has a huge influence on the spread on the trade here. So i think, you know january 22nd meeting is going to be huge. And heres something that nobodys talked about. You know were under the premise theres a tightening by the fed some point in 2015. Well, when that wears out, i think that will wear out, it will bring a drove of sellers to the long end. So everybody who thinks that we can potentially get much closer to 1 in 10s i dont know necessarily disagree but i dont think the feds going to tighten and when the market wakes up to that in the Third Quarter i think the curve steepening pulling the plug out on the new loan that is are going to jump in after 3 1 2 years of tryinging to be short 10year rates. I love that just as they turn long. Opening it up to the panel, tom, what do you think about the prospective to finally as people get comfortable with the idea of fed raising ratds get it kicked off yet again. Where do you think rates are going . You know i think it is tough to figure out Interest Rates but i kind of buy into the idea that the fed can be more patient here. You know . We can deal with higher rates a wider spread and i think the fed being patient is good for equities. Thats why, bob pisani that leaves open this question about what they do this year what kind of certainty to have with that twoyear at 1 or what have you and where were headed. So many people wrong on this so many years. Im of the mind the fed is interested in seeing a slight rise in the yields on the long end and i think very interested in trying to do that. I think ricks right. A lot of people proven wrong on this. We have been wrong for a year ago. The whole street has been. I understand why. I think problem with today is we saw a lot of knockon effects of Smaller Companies out there influenced by energy. Equipment rentals down 11 . Theres concern about construction in the big Energy States like oklahoma and north dakota and texas. Bob, im so glad you raised that point. Talk about the transports today. This is an area to benefit. Whether its uri or trains tied to the activity. One of the things thats concerning about that is now youre starting to see a diedy divergence. All of a sudden you wonder whether or not there should be some comfort thats taken a little bit. Because this is not all risk on risk off. People finding opportunity where is the values are being traded. I love it. So simple, larry. Railroads may get hurt shipping less oil. We love a slowdown in production. No two ways about that. Fine. Coming back to the Interest Rate story, the 2year note. Have been wrong on longterm rates. I have stayed with stocks. Ive been wrong on longterm rates. But i think the fed funds rate will end this year about 1 . Really . I do. I think Rick Santellis hunch of the shorts to the longs, i think longterm rates go up. Probably the same amount about 1 . Wow. What were you going to say . Larry, youre here. We have to faulktalk about king dollar. Yes, yes, yes. We start hearing from a lot of S P Companies over the next couple of weeks and thats certainly going to pose a headwind to a lot of multinationals. I dont know, bertha. I dont know. Ive always believed that a strong dollar has been consistent with strong Economic Growth and profits. Outside of the Energy Sector im bullish on profits. Remember, off lot of positives. If you got international companies, everything to import to create the products is cheaper. Commodities, everything is cheaper. Thats a good thing. I would take 5 to 10 profits. I think whats consistent. That means Energy Profits probably less than 20 and fall 25 . Whats the rule of thumb with the strong dollar and the impact on the blue chip earnings . Believe it or not, its not as linear as people think. Meaning, you know companies hedge. So if you have a move in 12month period might take two years to see it. Larry makes a very good point. You have dollar cost matching so that affects it. So in general, in my years modeling earnings i put very little weight in dollar news. A rising king dollar and i love how you call it king dollar. I need a hash tag on this. King dollar. Lower oil prices are bullish for the American Economy even while the energy stuff adjusts. Its bullish, bullish, bullish. Bob . Thats part of the problem, larry. The energy dropped, estimates for energy down 20 for 2015 versus 2014. 3 for the beginning of december. I havent seen that since the financials in 2008. I want talking about of the benefits of lower oil when the earnings numbers start coming out. It will be quite an earnings season. Get ready for it everybody. Our thanks to you. Much more on the huge selloff still to come. Plus investors giving stock pickers the Cold Shoulder last year. 200 billion into passively managed funds and pulling 13 billion from actively managed one. Will that change in a down market . Thats up next. Welcome back. Will investors keep momentum going this year or can active managers stage a turnaround . Mary thompson breaks down the numbers. Mary . If i had a crystal ball i could tell you but lets do what companies that manage the active funds suggest you do before you invest. Review past performance. Numbers would give investors little reason to buy active funds. Over 70 of actively managed domestic stock mutual funds, mid cap, small cap, large cap they underperform over a fiveyear performance. Given the performance and charging about half a percent more in Management Fees than passive or index funds, investors have been shunning them over four years now. Data compiled by Investment Institute shows clients pulling billions of funds since 2011 putting more and more money into passive funds. Planner carrie carbanaro says they do well in an up market and the s p up for five out of six years. Active funds they tend to outperform in a down market. And if you are looking for one, that kind of protection make sure you review the managers performance before you make that bet. Thats the best bet of what the fund will do. Such a great point, mary. Thank you. Joining us with more is dan wiener editor of independent adviser of vanguard. Offering many active and index funds and Herb Greenberg joining us, hi herb along with the rest of the panel. Dan, well start with you. Vanguard has successful actively manages fund as well. Absolutely. How are the inflows . Into passive is enormous. No comparing them to past years and the money coming out of the actively managed funds and most cases its due to poor performance but a lot of that is expenses. A lot of that is that 50point 55basis point headwind. If you take that away then the active passive debate gets a lot closer. In fact, we did some fum numbers, two thirds of funds outperform looking at them with their expenses. Taking the expense equation out and some of the gleed out, its about a third that outperforms. Thats why, herb i wonder if this is a story about the pressure thats going to really start to be put on the fees across the active management part of this industry. Well its already been happening, happening frl years. And thats been the story. And thats been jack vogels story going way back as dan knows so well. I think the bigger issue here look. I sometimes worry and we have seen it in the past. People go into an index fund they think its safe and performs better and then when the market in general comes down a bad event, they never quite thought they could lose money, too, in terms of below the principal and where they got into the market. I think this issue of passive versus active misses certain points and i think it miss the points of good stock pickers out there and know how to avoid risk which is important and there are ways to not always just talking about a 12 31 benchmark but some stocks that take a long time. Theres a long time horizon for many stocks to do well and lost in the equation. That said i would argue that most people most average people, many people got in trouble really knowing what to do and where, of course jack vogel got into it and did it so well. Dom the point basically not sure that you can do the pickers why not stick with the index fund . Im biassed. I came from the Mutual Fund Business at one point in my life and for an active manager. Investing for anybody, the retail public, institutions, doesnt matter who you are, is all about the tools available to you. Its not a binary situation and only in passive or active investing. There are tools for every part of the port yoel owe. Many say that etf investing is great as a cornerstone or main core part of the portfolio. Thats not to say you cant invest in other parts of the market with opportunities. For instance, thiss the reason why tom lee or strategist on wall street says given the landscape we think that technology and financials will outperform with these types of things. Not to say that the market wont do well overall. You have a 100 track record dont you . Oh yeah. For a minute. Never been wrong. For a nanosecond. I think dan make it is key point. Look. I know a lot of brilliant Portfolio Managers and Hedge Fund Guys and some not so brilliant and the record is not good over the past decade as mary reported but dans point is the key point. Expensive. Especially the hedge fund expen expense expenses. Putting in the fees and then they take a piece of it. You have to have after tax calculations. My pal jim glassman did a study for this for the American Enterprise institute and showed. I think you have to until these active funds get competitive on pricing exactly. They will have trouble. Portfolios out of active funds at vanguard my models over 24 years outperformed the market by 2 per anumb. You pick good active managers with low expenses. Youre going to win. When will we have a free Market Competition in expenses . I want the hedge funds. Look at the hedge funds for a minute. They charge huge fees. Brilliant or may not. Theyre not competitive in terms of fees. When will that break . Once i expect and a long enough track record to indicate theres not longer performance. Im sorry . Hedge funds, when do they finally come down . Some founds have tried to actually change their benchmarks to rolling opposed to oneyear benchmark and i think you have the look at the whole concept of just i think it will come down to some extent. Im sorry. I lost my train of thought there, kelly. Is jack vogel right . Herb my friend is jack vogel right . And then we have to go. Right for some people some of the time. Not everybody, larry. I still feel like, listen. We have to go. I was reading intelligent investor. Ben graham over the weekend. It is funny. It was written i think 1949. Updated it through the 70s and one of the things he said is we never found evidence that active management outperforms and it seems perhaps theres maxims on wall street. Thank you for being here. Herb thank you. You spent the weekend reading the intelligent investor. Trying to become an intelligent one, larry, for everybodys benefit. Coming up later, federal gasoline taxes not raised since 1993. Now, a push is on to hike the tax for road repairs and some republicans are backing the idea. One key gop senator will be here next to explain why. Stay tuned. Say youre a finance guy. A farmer. A researcher. You used to depend on experience. The internet. Your gut. Today you can use ibm watson analytics. It can make sense of all kinds of data. Uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. And give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. What to make. Where to plant. Which helps you make smarter decisions. Theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. Youre driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pickup truck slams into your brand new car. One second it wasnt there and the next second. Boom youve had your first accident. Now you have to make your first claim. So you talk to your Insurance Company and. Boom youre blindsided for a second time. They wont give you enough money to replace your brand new car. Dont those people know youre already shaken up . Liberty mutuals new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. Call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch to Liberty Mutual insurance and you could save up to 423 dollars. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back. Tough day for markets across the board. Some of the days biggest losers with morgan brennan. Energy sector the biggest loser in the selloff as oil prices traded at a 5 1 2year low. All hit hard. Caterpillar, the drag on the dow. Downgraded to underweight from neutral and a tough day for momentum stocks. Netflix, priceline, amazon tesla all in the red. Lastly, we end with a transports. Having the worst day in over a month and ch robinson worldwide leading the way lower, very tough day for the bulls on wall street. Thats a point, morgan. Thank you. Meanwhile, as Oil Keeps Falling economyists say its a tax cut for americans and might seem odd a plan in washington to hike the gas tax is gaining steam. A 9 tax. Joining us in a first on cnbc is gop senator bob corker of tennessee supporting a bill to raise the federal gas tax and lower other taxes at the same time. Senator, happy new year. Thank you for being here. And do you want this do you think this is going to happen raising the gas tax . Kelly, thanks for having me. Look. Since you like to inform your audience, look, this is something thats a heavy lift. Everyone should know that and proposed by chris murphy and myself over the last six months. But as you mentioned, the tax, the user fee is not raised since 1993. Other things typically are percentage. This is per gallon and way behind. 100 billion shortfall in the Infrastructure Program over 10 years and what congress has done five times since 1998 is generational theft. Congress has always going to Fund Infrastructure but not in the appropriate way. Its always stop start, stop start. So we should put this in place. We could how much of an increase senator . Six cents each year for two years and solve the problem for the long long term. And what you could do kelly, is you could lower the marginal rate from 10 to 8. 6 on all americans paying income taxes and it would be revenue neutral and also very progrowth. So again, were going to continue to Fund Infrastructure but the question is are we going to pay for it . This would be a longterm solution. Ive been here eight years, kelly. We have never solved a fiscal problem yet. We keep kicking the can down the red. Were well aware, senator. Nows the time to begin thinking about this. This will probably be wrapped up into overall reform. May 15th is Corporate Tax reform . Overall other reforms. Im not sure well get to the entire Corporate Tax reform package this year but there will be at least some of those that will be extended on a permanent basis and my guess is infrastructure funding will be wrapped up in all of that. It has to be dealt with by may 15th. Would you support this bill if it did not include cutting the income tax . Well we could offset it in other ways. I mean we have not been specific as to which. I would like this one the best. This is the one ive been talking about. But look. There are other ways of doing it. I think to get it passed a Republican House and Republican Senate there is going to have to be an offset of some kind. At the end of the day, i think thats got to be part of the solution. I suppose the question then is do you think the rest of the colleagues will ultimately support raising the gas tax . Ill be honest. You talk to people privately. They understand generally speaking that this is something that we should do. Theres something about a gasoline user fee as you remember. By the way, the diesel components, Transportation Industry you were just referring to willing to pay far more than their fair share. Look. Its a heavy lift. I came from the world of business. You saw the problem from a to b. Straight line. Around here sometimes you got to take a process and a lot of times you dont want it to be that transparent. This is the very best way to solve the problem. Hopefully it will gain momentum. To your to those viewing you, Something Like this is a heavy lift here in washington. One last question. How much would this raise with a 12cent tax over 2 years . Fully pay for the program for 10 years and way beyond that. One of the come poe innocents we have thrown out is indexing it to inflation. You have to be careful there because things can get out of hand but what we would like to do with anything we put forth is ensure that its the long term solution. Again, theres going to be a lot, kelly, coming forth. All kind of things that just kick the can down the road. Do not solve the problem. If you raise the gas tax and can somehow get rid of the tolls you might find some support for it. Well, certainly, in the place that you live. Theres not a lot of tolls in chattanooga. Hopefully this is something, again, over the next several months, especially with Energy Prices being where they are to gain nomomentum and Show Congress goes from a to b and solve a problem through a user fee and conservative way in the world to generate revenues. All right. Senator, here to tell us about what may be coming to your nearby gasoline station, thank you very much sir. Thank you, thank you. When stocks sell off, people turn on cnbc and go to cnbc. Com and topping the hot list next. While many in colorado in a Rocky Mountain high since the legalization of marijuana, a new cnbc prime time documentary looking at some of the challenges facing local businesses. Harry smith joins us with that story coming up. Willingelcome back. A busy day for cnbc. Com. Allen joining with us the first hot list of the new year. Allen, new resolutions, new searches . What do you see . I see a lot of obsession about the markets today. Were leading off right now with the site taking a look at whens happening with oil prices because, you know they dip below 50 bucks a barrel today and now with realigning patty dom with the phone calls and some expect a retargeting down in the 40s level and some into the low 30s. Thats what people are eating up right now. Number two on the list the ticking time bomb for stocks. A look at whens happening with margin debt. At one of the highest points ever, when it gets high high right before the housing bubble. Right before the dotcom bust. Wait. The margin thing again, allen . Isnt it coincidence . We need to get dan greenhouse. These are people borrowing money to buy stocks. Borrowing something for a speculative asset. I could see how thats a warning sign. Well no. Certainly not the most prudent thing in the world. I alell agree with you, not a slam dunk. Prudent behavior versus a market signal. Psychology. You know . Yeah. Speaking of psychology roger on earlier today, the investor with Elevation Partners warning people hey, the oil dip, not so bad short term and could be speculation building up in the market to worry about. People checking out that interview, too kelly. I heard there were some excellent people involved in that. Thank you, allen. Good to see you. See ya. Legalized marijuana in colorado does not mean everyones grass is greener. Harry smith will join us with the story of one Construction Company thats now trying to cope with the new laws. For years, allstate Television Ads said were in good hands. Tomorrow Thomas Wilson joins us to discuss how the hands are adapting to new, hightech cars. How will Insurance Companies deal with driverless ones . Your answers tomorrow. Welcome back p. Its been one year since colorado was the first state to legalize the sale of rec thaeks recreational marijuana. Harry smith went back to colorado to see how the sx peer experiment is work. Employers can still test positive for pot even though its legal. That is my companys building. Reporter brian miller is onehalf of a Construction Company with more than 100 employees and apn hr problem unique to colorado. Do you have worries that you have guys on the job that may be using marijuana . You bet. What we do is a very dangerous business. When youre on a construction site, you need to have all your faculty. Reporter whites employees are subject to an democratrandom drug testing. We have terminated one. Reporter colorados marijuana laws are contradictory but clear. Moyers can still fire anyone who tests positive for pot. But not all workers are getting that message. Positive marijuana tests in colorado are up by double digits. With us now for more on tonights premiere of marijuana country is harry smith. Items great to see you. And we look forward to seeing this tonight. And this workplace issue, front and center. This Construction Company obviously keeping the safety of its workplace in mind. What about some of the other workplaces you talked for . Its an interesting thing because years ago, state legislature in colorado passed a law that basically said anything that is legal in the state that you do in the privacy of your home has no should have no effect on your ability to keep our hold on to a job. So you have laws that are in contradiction in colorado right now and that very issue is in front of the state supreme court. Harry, your interview with the construction guy i thought was very important. All these studies have come out just since pot legalization passed from the medical profession. It dulls the brain, it damages the brain, it takes incentive especially in yuckoung people. Thats right. And im glad this guy is test. I think all business shoes test because i think this pot legal vaigs is one legal vaigs is a bad idea. Its interesting because the whole notion of testing, you can test a person for pot and it says this your system for 40 days. You can have a guy who was drunk the night before he comes in the next day, does a breathalyzer and hes clean. So there is an inequality there among people who are especially pot advocates that say i can come to work and have used pot a day ago or two days ago, but im not high. Shy should i still get fired . Is it the workplace laws in response to that or is it that people just wont be able to do it like they thought . This whole thing of colorado governor hickenlooper has called is a giant social experiment. Were watching things happen a lot for the first time. Is this all this is all part of it 37. Mary smith, thank you. Dont miss it tonight right here at 9 00 p. M. More on todays dramatic selloff. And a sfleekneak peek terof the interview with John Chambers. Welcome back. Before we talk more about todays selloff, a big gift for jim cramer. He has John Chambers coming up on mad money. And here is part of what chambers told cramer will ciscos current lawsuit. About once every decade, we have to send a message to the market that we spend 6 billion a year on our intellectual property and our r d. And that we will protect that. And that you have to say that periodically when be somebody does cross the boundaries and you have to send a message both to them and others in the market that it is all about innovation. But innovation is not copying. That is a glimpse. Full thing coming up on mad money at 6 00 eastern. And well also want to hear what jim says about this selloff. So that note, guys quick final thought. Tom, what is your forecast for the rest of the year for stocks . S p closing above 2325. So a gain of how much . Mid teens total return. Are you confident you will get mid teens total return on the s p this late into the rally . Yes. You have to remember, anyone forecasting Single Digits is not forecasting anything. Because the markets rarely produce single digit gains. Its either up big or down big. Im plus 10 . Ill take it. Lower oil prices good for growth, Corporate Tax cut on the way, good for growth. Hold your fire folks, you get bad days that comes along with good days. Stay the course. Dominic. Im not smart enough to figure out what the stock market will be, but what id like to see stop whether or not there a validation of what is happening today on volume. A lot of the guys i spoke with down here were talking about the idea that, hey, were looking for that workout. Does it feel different. We wont know that. Tomorrow if it does have another 300 to 400 point down day on volume, maybe its the well put. Guys, thank you all for being here. Fast money coming up. A very special fast money we should add. Melissa, i cant wait to see how it looks. How do you feel over there . Its our new digs. For the first time the show has been on for eight year, ive been doing it for six year and we have a new studio. A lot of work ahead of us. Well talk the selloff and also the next stop for oil. And the one chart you need to see because it will be an stock that will go up this year no matter what the barometer tells us. Is that sometimes square . It is. Should you see some of the shots here. They are spectacular. Interesting next new years thats for sure. Fast money starts right now. Big selloff today. Blue chips on the dow getting hit the hardest falling 331 point. Well tell you why and what happens next. And tonight as we mentioned, our first night live from our new studio overlooking times square here in new york city at the nasdaq. Im melissa lee. Warning signs comes to a head today. Europe getting hard as fears greece leaving the european union