Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150102

As we saw volatile day for oil, bill, as well. One of the days where bad news was bad news. You could have argued once an upon you could have said bad news would mean that the fed would delay raising Interest Rates and the market rally on that. That didnt happen today. And you wonder if thats the kind of action we will see going into 2015 here if suddenly now bad news is bad news and vice versa. Volatility bill seems to be here to stay. Yes, maam. It is. Well talk about that. The volatility index is moving up as well today. Theres the dow up 120 as kayla was mentioning. Down about 99 points at the apex of the day. The low of the day. Now down 30 into the final hour of trading and the volatility index. Made a liar out of me. Down to 1831 and rather elevated level when you consider the rest of the market has been doing. S p down 5 points today to start the new year. And the nasdaq down 17 at 4719. Before we sta start our panel discussion, we want to hear from you at home. Log on the to cnbc. Com vote. You know how this works. We want the know if you think 2015 will be a good year for stocks or not. So you can vote while youre listening to our discussion and see what the Panel Members begin and first one for 2015. Joining us today, Jennifer Vail from u. S. Bank. Tom metsol with us today. Jim la camp and our own rick santellis back from vacation. Good to see you, as well. Jennifer what is your answer . Can we make it seven in a row . I think we can make it seven in a row. As least relats to positive versus negative market and looking at pretty decent earnings potential in 2015. Wont be a knock it out of the ballpark year but should be a positive year. Jim normally when were in the third year of a president ial cycle, we see a bull run for stocks but we have already gotten so much ground gained already in the markets from here that some people are saying hey, maybe were poised for a slowdown especially with the wild card of a rate raise hanging out there in the balance. What do you see ahead for stocks . We think rates are going to remain lower longer than everybody else expects. These numbers today dont surprise me. Looking at the manufacturing numbers out of dallas and chicago last week they pointed to a slowdown in manufacturing. Look. We think Interest Rates remain low and equities will claw higher in this new year. Maybe 6 to 8 maybe a little multiple expansion along with your earnings growth. Earnings growth about 6 6. 5 . But the key themes this year are Central Banks and what theyre doing. We think the European Central bank more aggressive as will the bank of japan making the dollar stronger, more money into the u. S. U. S. Stocks claw higher and more volatile this year and more difficult. Tom, i think you agree with jim. You see a rate rise later rather than sooner by the fed. Will we have another good year for equities necessarily . Well im not so sure that equities will do as well as they have done in the past but i agree that the fed is not going to raise rates anywhere near as soon as people think. The economy is just not Strong Enough to sustain that. I dont think the fed risks raising rates too soon. With the federal bank leading the story, youre still saying there is no alternative. How can nothing have changed from last year to this year on that front . Well i think, you know from an investor standpoint you look at the world and just look at commodity prices. Look at copper prices. Forget energy for a second. Copper prices iron ore prices. I continue to think that we have a Global Demand issue and in that Global Demand issue Central Banks are reluck tantd to take the punch bowl away. I think youre going to continue to see the ubers with capitalizations beyond belief because the money has to go somewhere and today is a perfect example of how were held hostage to central bankers. Whethers going on with mario draghi potentially in 2015 and the bazooka being fired pushls yields under 50 basis on a close today and, of course, that relationship is one of the reasons we saw 2. 10 in 10year note yields. Does that matter . Thats going to be huge. Pardon . Does it matter what the Central Banks do . Look at u. S. Interest rates versus german Interest Rates that youre pointing out. Spanish, french f. The Federal Reserve board raises rates, people buy u. S. Treasure Treasury Bonds for yields and better credit quality than other countries around the world and we think rates remain low no matter what the fed does. I agree. The fed starts to tighten, it could poison the well. You have to be very careful as an entity to raise rates trillions of dollars of security is lets add Brian Reynolds to the conversation. Happy new year to you, brian. Beginning this segment, we asked our viewers if they see a good year for the stock market in 2015 or not. Initially the vote was very bullish. About 70 said yes. Now its tipping the other direction. It is about 5050. Where do you stand . Do you see another a sechbtd good year in a row for the u. S. Equity markets here . I think 2015 is like 2014 but on steroids. Overall, its going to be a good year for stocks but theres more volatility. We had about five panicky selloffs last year and probably more than that and a couple are probably going to be more intense than what we saw last year. What would cause that brian . A rocky ride. What would cause that . Why would we have those kinds of selloffs do you think . Well the fed thinks theyre going to tighten and every time the fed begins a tightening cycle, theres a panicky selloff in stocks. We had a commodity bubble. Im on this program for years saying that wall street racked trillions of dollars of commodityies in the package of mortgages and the commodity bubble burst and if people realize that and it really is over, then theres a chance the fed may not tighten and that may cause a selloff but the important thing to note is that our pensions need to make 7. 5 and theyre continuing the vote to put more money in credit and that trend will accelerate as the year goes on so once these panics run their course the stocks go right back up. Okay. Yeah. But we thought the credit bubble was going to end and david tepper saying the credit bubble in september was over that the run that we have seen in credit was over. Jennifer, im wondering given that this is your wheelhouse where the 10year and 30year are right now, i dont think people would have predicted starting 2015 at these ultra low levels yet again so where do you want to be on the credit scale given whats ahead in 15 . Yeah. So we are of the belief that the fed is certainly going to be on the path of raising rates in the middle of the year latter part of the year. Frankly, our domestic and Economic Growth sup sportports some level of accommodation but not emergency policy we are currently at and because we believe the fed is likely to begin that path of raising rates prior to the end of the year we are encouraging our clients to focus on that intermediate long end of the curve simply because all of the volatility in the short end. The long end of the curve held down by foreign interests, by baby boomers, by Pension Plans derisking after five years of a positive equity market. So were encouraging our clients to focus credit in that intermediate part of the curve and ultrahigh quality on the long end and avoid the short end altogether. You dont share the fears of others on our panel today if they start raising rates that the growth in the economy is not sustainable and might put a crimp on that growth rate . Well you know thats why its not liftoff is not nearly as important as the pace of increases and we are expecting the pace to be gradual so we think at least after the initial shock in the equity markets it will come to realize that the pace is going to be gradual. Its a sign of domestic economic strength and the markets will recover from that point. Tom well leave you with the final word here today do. You agree that the volatility will be on the shorter side of the curve . Without question its all about volatility and id much rather be intermediate to long. As people go into 2015 it is about where to find income in this short, in this very low Interest Rate environment and whats that interesting the fear of volatility, the fact that people are looking for more income and the fact that feem are afraid of higher taxes is tailor made for Municipal Bonds and more attractive part of the market to be in than treasuries. Folks, it is only one day and its a friday between holiday and a weekend but were going to try not to make too much of todays trading. Thank you for joining us. We close the polls and 57 of our viewers see a positive year for the stock market in 2015 kayla. Well, theres still bulls in the analysts camp and estimates for year end s p still above the range of right now and well see how the rest of the trading year proceeds after this very first day. With about, oh 50 minutes before the closing bell on the first trading day of 2015 we are still in negative territory. All major averages down by a third to a half of 1 . A muted range today after a pretty solid triple digit green open. Largely driven by oil as well as some negative data. When we come back well continue here and go live to the nasdaq. Get a check of the biggest movers there on this first trading day of the new year. An youre looking at apple in the red today down by about 1. 5 . Well find out why. Plus well have the pros debate whether you need to put tech and the tech giant namely on your buy, sell or hold list this year. Thats coming up next. At legalzoom you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. Now its quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on side. Introducing. A pm pain reliever that dares to work all the way until. The am. New aleve pm the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12 hour strength of aleve. Welcome back. You missed the volatility today if youre just joining. Off to the races first thing this morning. Up 129 points in the first half hour until we got the Economic Data suggesting weakness in the Manufacturing Sector and then just big selloff. Down about 100 points at the low of the session and the dow down about 50 points right now. S p down 7. And the nasdaq is down 22 points but still roughly 5 little more than that from 5,000, kayla. Nasdaq faring the worst, down half of 1 . Bertha coombs is covering the action today at the nasdaq. Not a very happy new year for the naz democracy and last week talking about close range of the alltime record. 15 years ago, in fact thats when i started reporting here and its just wild to think that its still has not taken out that 5048 intraday high of march 2000. Some of the old names at the top of the list and 2014s gainers, biotechs are up there and definitely adding the weight to the upside as is microsoft. Microsoft really come on strong over the last couple of quarters. Today, its definitely one of the shining lights but getting a lot of other names to the downside. The median names are down today. Reports that yahoo may be considering buying Scripts Network or talked about it according to some reports. Interestingly, 15 years ago, the talk was yahoo with 350 billion market cap to buy a broadcast network back then a. Lot of other media names are also trending to the downside although i would say yesterday is a big media day. I watch more football in one day than i have ever watched or thought humanly possible. Apple meantime today, started off strong. Argus raising its price target on ap tollple to 125. Just sunk all afternoon. Back the you. Thanks bertha. Good day for football yesterday. A lot of Great College games. Into the evening there, as well. Thank you, bertha. I guess she didnt want to say anything more about that. They were great games. Big surprises. Thank you. Lets move on. Apple investors probably sad to see 2014 go away. That stock gained about 40 last year. So now what about this year . The big ticket item we know about is the apple watch. Due sometime early this year. Maybe the springtime s. That product the key to how apple stock will perform . Lets bring in don in los angeles and max wolf from manhattan. Dawn you think its the year of the wearable for apple. Why . I do indeed. You know we have been waiting for apple to introduce a wearable for quite a long time. It unveiled the apple watch in september to quite a bit of fan fare and the fashion magazines which is a pretty significant feat for a device a wearable. I think we are going to see it perhaps by the springtime and i think some analysts are now predicting that the watch sell as many as 30 Million Units in the first year. Max, you know not everybody is as bullish about the apple watch. Just this week we got notes from fred wilson saying dont expect it to be the type of item that was hyped and successful like the ipod or the ipad. Is this a wild card product for apple or can they make it into a core business and a fruitful revenue stream for the company. Thank you for having me. Happy new year. Happy new year. We dont think theyre going to sell a lot and not a big revenue story. Its proof of a new platform and try to cross purpose the app america again and the app store and cross purpose ios here and drives loyalty to the core business which is the iphone 6 and 6 plus which we think theyll sell well in excess of 185 million to 200 Million Units and have a good year, a good investment. But the watch will not drive anything else than bragging rights an ena pushback on the unfortunate belief that apples lost some of the mojo coming to innovation and disruption. Whats not a lot . Whats that . Id be surprised much above 10 Million Units and for profit and revenue thats also a ran story for the company of this size. What about the survey of iphone users, they surveyed like 1,100 users around the country. 80 said they were not likely to buy an apple watch. The price point was high rich for their taste and just you know, people are saying what do i need another gadget for . I have an iphone ipad, those kinds of things. Yeah. Thats a fair question. Do you remember back in 2010 when apple introduced the tablet . There were these devices that existed for years and never caught on with the consumer until ap wl its own version of the tablet and took off in really unexpected ways. Remains to be seen whether the watch will do the same thing but apple demonstrated a deftness in desire for a product even when we didnt think we needed one. I wanted a smart watch for a while. I find that the notifications are useful. I know when to pick up the phone and when not to. Well see if it takes off. Yep. There are a few other products for apple waiting in the wings, max. Beats obviously. Expensive acquisition of apple last year and we have numbers showing that streaming activity of 50 compared to prior year and music downloads were down. Do you think that apple can leverage beats to revive the itunes platform . Absolutely. We think streaming is the future of music. Led by names more like deezer and spotify and to some extent of pandora. The offline mode you could get your music even if you dont technically own it. Mp3 style and listen to it on a flight or offline. Really is a game changer. We see that as a market apple needs to get into and they have the captive audience. They can push it out through ios, huge platform for them with a growing market share and like in many things by the way, the apple platform user is a bigger spender on streaming music just as areas and other areas and we think lets be honest. I tunes is a runoff business and need to compensate for that and be the cool hip place for music and the ipod put them there as cool and hip and thats where this story of the new consumer facing apple began and they need to keep their eyes on that ball. All right. Dawn, max, good to see you both. Thank you for joining us. Happy new year. Thank you. Kayla, would you wear a smartwatch . You know, ive tried a few of the other fitness wearables. I like them and more information about how much you sleep and, you know, whether youre walking enough. Im not sure if id wear an actual computer type device on the wrist. Dawn apparently likes screening the phone calls with that. Look at the wrist and you know not to pick it up. Oh yes. Well see. About 40 minutes left in the trading session here. We have had minus signs this afternoon after a big rally this morning killed by some weak Economic Data. Dows now down 31 points with the s p down 5. Well keep an eye on the markets heading into the close but listen up. Past performance, of course does not guarantee future results. So, yes, the markets were up last year. What should you do with your money this year . Two of wall streets stop Financial Planners tell us what theyre telling their compliant s clients. Thats coming up next. Half hour into the close on the first trading day of 2015. All major averages in the red. Historically, when thats happened of being in the red on the last day and first day of the year the market is up 7 for the rest of the year and not seen as a bad omen when that happens. We wont panic yet at this point. As investors dive into a new year were wondering whether the same things that worked last year can work again in the new year. With us now, two Financial Planning pros telling us what theyre telling their clients right now. Ivory delancy and jordan waxman. Gentlemen, happy new year to you both. Happy new year to you, too. Happy new year. Ivory, the one big event on the horizon we didnt last year is a potential rate rise from the Federal Reserve. How will that impact a portfolio of a potential retiree and how do you plan for that . Going into 2015 you cant time the market. Going into 2014 we were worried about the end of quantitative easing. You could have made the case that the last two times it ended the market had deep declines. That didnt happen this time for some reason. I think you stick with the game plan knowing that the economy is strong. You will have volatility. Trying to jump in and out with 57 straight months of private sector job growth jobless claims at a 14year low and a lot of reasons to be excited and raising Interest Rates its some i could case that the market is still recovering and still strong and i say you get your allocation. Jordan, we were just talking in the break here. I mean our feds going to start tightening and other Central Banks around the world loosening. You want to look overseas for better opportunities anyway dont you . Thats right, bill. The clients are wealthy coming to us and ask us to allocate their portfolios in a way to preserve the capital and grow it after tax and inflation and looking around the globe at opportunities, we want to look where were paying a reasonable multiple for growth and reason multiple for stocks and getting a much better deal in International Markets for the first time in a couple of years. Where youre getting good quality prices and hold them for a listening time and the Equity Portfolios small and mid cap stocks lagged over a couple of years and aloe katding more there, as well. And in fixed income we come to the realization were not going to get much in the way of total return so look for opportunities selectively in areas where we think the credit spreads are wide so in Municipal Bond markets where they have healthy Balance Sheets an they cant put a Printing Press in place and balance the budgets, you can see High Yield Municipal credit still attractive after the rally of last year. Jordans saying to put more maybe in the attractive highyield names. Ivory, im wondering what you see as the optimal way to allocate assets going into 2015 given that the Market Forces are penalizing those who have been savers or close to retirement or holding more of their money in safe assets. Well id agree that i think you have to have equities. Obviously, to keep pace with inflation. I dont know that theres a better alternative right now. To the extent of international, thats a great point. You want to have asset that is are not hedged to currency risk. As the dollar gets stronger and you see the rue i dont get weaker i think you will see some positive headwinds regardless of the underlying security. Jordan, is your premise that the the european markets will act the way our markets did when our fed started quantitative easing . Is it that simple . All markets love free money so theyre going to rally no matter what the underlying earnings are doing . Well think about it. Interest rates internationally are lower than they are here. 10year spanish bond is trading at 1. 6 . Thats ridiculous for the type of risk but in fact was it the 5year bund negative today . It is insane when you think about it but think about the cost of capital in europe and also the lower cost of energy is not just a benefit to United States companies. And certainly a benefit to small and mid Cap Companies but European Companies where the price of natural gas is triple what it is in the United States. Its a huge boon to them. A weak euro Weak Energy Prices are a benefit to international companies. If you could find a same company as here a company that makes chocolate and bandaids and shampoo and 2 or 3 multiple points cheaper than the same company domestically operating or listed then why not invest there . Its a same risk but a better return. A lot of people talking like that. Gentlemen, good to see you both. Ivory, your dan, thank you. Happy new year. All right. We are just a half hour away before the closing bell. Dow in negative territory down. Nasdaq and s p down, as well. Pairing the losses and well off the highs of the session. Which stocks are poised to gain this coming year . Two stock pickers share their must have lists when we come back. Alzoom you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. Now its quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on your side. I was out for a bike ride. I didnt think id have a heart attack. But i did. Im mike and im very much alive. Now my doctor recommends a bayer aspirin regimen to help prevent another heart attack. Be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. Latte or au lait . Cozy or cool . Exactly the way you want it. Until boom, its bedtime your mattress is a battleground of thwarted desire. Enter the sleep number bed. Save 300 on the final closeout of the c3 Queen Mattress set. Hes the softy. His sleep number setting is 35. Youre the rock, at 60. And snoring . Sleep numbers even got an adjustment for that. Only at a sleep number store find the lowest prices of the season, with the c3 Queen Mattress set only 1199. 98. Plus 24 month special financing on all beds. Know better sleep with sleep number. Face it. The markets wont get under way until monday with a full week under our belt. Dow down 21 at the moment. S p down 3. And the nasdaq down 15 points right now, kayla. Volume still relatively below average with a lot of traders out on vacation and we have a lot of stocks moving nonetheless. Dominic chu is running through all of those movers for us as we wind down this first trading day. Over to you. Kayla, a couple of ones that a lot of traders are focusing on today. Add linn energy to the companies of cutting the dividends. Before the bell shares down nearly 12 . Since then they have soared up about 12. 5 right now. Now, along the line with the cuts, they announced a deal with blackstone to help finance new oil and gas projects and shares in focus. Also on the rise in the session, gopro shares. Positive comments of jpmorgan and Raymond James analysts helping the stock rise up by 4. 5 . Jpmorgan is playing down the risk of competitors saying other Companies Just cant match all that gopro offers. Very big upside moves in the otherwise mixed market. Back over to you guys. Thanks so much. Back at headquarters. Despite the weakness of stocks on this first trading day of the year our nexts have the names you should buy if your resolution is to make money in the market this year. They are david nelson from each of them with the top three picks. Welcome back. Happy new year. Thank you. Lou, are these three that you like for this year or have you liked these all along to talk about . Theyre all three that i have liked all along and i like them particularly for this year. You know i traditionally focus on small and micro Cap Companies but these are companies, always a large cap way to play the best growth trends. And theres no bigger growth trend than mobile and that makes skyworks a company i think everyone has to own in 2015. Theyre a leading rf chip supplier, well positioned in the iphone a strong presence in the 4g networks in china and most compelling of all i think they have a potentially Disruptive Technology theyre working on with a company of resident to transform the Business Model to produce filters at a 55 discount. You like resident as well. Thats the second pick. Yeah. Thats a company we have talked about before by skyworks is a lower risk way to benefit from the same. And i think you have to own apple. Bill, you love blackberry. Im an apple fan headed into 2015. Doesnt make you a bad person. I hope not. But look. Everyones talking about will the watch be a flop . I think everyones discounting apple pay. It is off to a great start. Iphone 6 sales are off to a great start. The company has to execute. Again i think its primed for further increases in profitability and the stock price can move a lot higher. Will you buy the watch . We have been we have been tweeting with viewers in the commercial break of what we would and would not buy here. I would buy the watch. Okay. Most wearables flop because they slap a computer on the wrist and they have terrible battery life. Apple focused on fashion over function first and that will propel that. David, you would not buy the watch . Id buy the watch. You would not. David nelson come on. That is not true. Absolutely. All right. Well get to your stock picks. Thats what you came here. Apple widely held stock. Airlines have also been bought a lot going into the end of the year. Because of the drop in oil prices it is great for them but you say southwest is a buy and i want to take a look at the southwest chart up 125 in the last year. Where can you get in on the stock . Half a dozen times here talking about Airline Stocks and that was before we had this dramatic fall in oil and i think this has legs. Regardless of where oil settles out, it is obvious that the trading band probably lower. Opec effectively committed suicide and isnt an influence anymore but you have an opportunity here. When is your opportunity . The opportunity is that right now brent is more than 30 below the 200day moving average right now. Its obviously oversold and some point very soon you will see a reflex, you know Short Covering rally. Airlines will get hit hard on that day. Thats the entry point. Other two points what do you think the Value Proposition of those companies . Celgene is almost a must have. Almost every line item is exploding. 20 top line growth. 30 bottom line growth. Its cheap. As for lockheed yeah its a defense stock but its also a defensive play. Look around the world, kayla. Look at some of the headlines that you see and you can see why the sector done so well when the skeptics were saying that the defense likely to turn down. Joint strike fighters coming. Theres a lot to be made here. I like that its run by a woman. I think one of the few companies that there you go. Another reason to own it. Solid point there. I see my by traditional watch its time to go. Thank you both. Happy new year. Thank you. Thank you. Good to see you. As i mentioned on twitter, i got a fitbit for christmas. I still havent opened it yet. It tells me how much i slept last snigt i know. You can log how much water you drank. You will see how many steps you take in a given day and it might even, bill cause you to do more laps around the newsroom for that milestone. See me stepping around the newsroom looking at the fitbit. I cant wait. Jogging in place below the anchor desk. Here the dow is down 11 points trying to come back. Come back a couple times today. It was a rally this morning. But now were virtually neutral here as we head towards the close. Part of the reason of so much volatility early on in the session was this seesaw in oil crude. And if gas under 2 is in americas future. It already is in some parts of the country but well tell you more about that after this break. Up 13 on the industrial average. S p up small fraction here trying to come back mode as we head toward the close. See if the nasdaq can do the same here. You have to go three decimal points to find the s p in positive territory. One part of the market down all day is oil. No comeback for the oil markets to start the year. Thats for sure. Jackie deangelis wearing her fitbit at the nymex. I am. For me it is a reminder of how lazy im being sometimes and note investigates you a little bit but they tease me down in the pits seeing it. Talk about the oil prices today. A big seesaw back and forth. Intraday, close to 52 at the low and then rebounded into positive territory before settling lower about 58 cents at 52. 69. Brent seeing pressure today, as well. Weak numbers out of china worrying investors that the demand picture will drop off later this year. Stronger dollar over 91. Not good for the crude trade and probably why we ended the day lower. Our bob gasoline down more than 2 on the day. National average for a gallon of regular now according to aaa 2. 23. Its down 50 cents from just a month ago and so many people tweeting me that gas in their state or their city is now under 2. So this really is going to have a big impact on the economy this year. Back to you. Photo on twitter, 1. 60. The lowest i have seen now. Good for them. Oklahoma city leading the way there. Incredible. Thank you, jackie. Sure. Our next guest said theres a potential for oil to head up to the 90s by the end of the year. Joining us is john hoffmeister. What will push oil higher in the back half of the year when it seems opec has an interest in seeing the u. S. Squirm . Well what the u. S. Knows how to do because we have done it before is we know how to adjust and adjust quickly. The difference between the demand and the supply of oil is not that significant. About a 1 overage and for 1 we have lost 50 in the oil price which is a bit extreme and a bit of an anomaly i would say but what the u. S. Industry is capable of doing is completely reversing the trend and what the trend means is that were looking at future production at lower rates rather than higher ratds and the faster that comes on stream the quicker to see a refound in the global price because as i said there is not that big of a gap between Production Supply and production demand. What do you think . Opec stands pat . Saudis are calling the shots here. Do they just stand pat here and keep production at current levels and wait for the price to come back because we have cut back on production . Yes. I think thats the way it will play out. I dont see the saudis changing anything and well see if theres any kind of a succession struggle taking place in saudi if the king doesnt come through his illness. That could jeopardize prices in a short term but at if the saudis get it right and do it calmly well see the continuation. They love continueitycontinuity. What well see is the u. S. Supply projection come down and that will affect the underlying psychology thats been driving the crude oil price down. John, i just got an email of a viewer with a picture of gas 1. 95 at the pump with a smily face in the subject but for Oil Companies, theres a lot of pain. Talk of potential layoffs. Whats the story between now and then as companies try and right size their operations . Well the more consumers enjoy the price reduction, the sooner well be headed back to Higher Crude Oil prices. Thats the reality. It is painful for the Oil Companies and i have been in communication today with several who are looking at realty severe cutbacks and theyre already in process of doing that. Theyve held off because of the Holiday Season but come the next two to three weeks i think you will see a lot of headlines about a lot of drills shutting down and by the end of january we could see, you know up to 400 or 500 rigs shut down since october. Right. That could grow even further in march and april and that kind of lay down of rigs is going to change the whole discussion about how soon the prices come back, not just come back but snap back snap back in a way that they will go up faster than they came down. Well see. I get what youre saying as an industry spokesman but as a consumer, i hope youre wrong. But, john thanks. Appreciate it. Thank you. We have a news alert on yahoo . Dom stepping in with that. Bill, kayla, seeing right now is a picture of what it looks like with yahoo s Search Engine capabilities right now its saying its down and has been down, you can see here for the course of about a last 25 minutes. This is, again, using yahoo s Search Engine. It doesnt affect the editorial content. You can go to Yahoo Finance and check out the content on entertainment. It affects the search function. Yahoo s search function is driven by Microsofts Bing Search Engine. Earlier today, we learned that bing was down for a short while, as well. Thats resumed and functioning normally but yahoo s search function is down and we have reached out far comment. They have not gotten back to us just yet and well bring you details when they respond but the Search Engine appears to be down and driven kayla and bill by bings Search Engine of microsoft. Yahoo search drives a lot of mobile app, as well. You have to wonder if theres further follow. Thank you. Ten minutes before the bell. The dow in positive territory. Up 36 points. Art cashin just came by and told me theres an order to buy for 500 million going into the close so that is what is propelling the market forward right now. Much more ahead. Also later, ceos in the hot seat. 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No. I think its frustrating today with the first trading day on a friday. I wish it would have been on a different day because normally first trading day we should have pretty good volume. Volume today is 20 below normal. Payroll numbers. 240, 250. 240. Yeah. Unemployment rate still continuing to improve. I think thats the main market mover next week. Theres an order to buy the close and people obviously think this is a shortterm pullback and todays pullback to call it that for a single trading day is short lived. You had, kayla, a Strong Movement upward in december. It went up and gave it back in january last year because of the weather. Remember how cold it was. Polar vortex. Hard to forget. I think january is driven not by weather or three things that happened later this month. European central bank meeting. People are looking to see whether they give quantitative easing. Secondly, the 25th, the snap greek election. That i think influencing the European Central bank. Thirdly, the 28th, the second of a twoday meeting by the fed and so people are going to be looking to i dont see a lot of big market moving action here in january waiting for that. And you want to see how the profits are doing. Earnings. One thing that always works is sell the winners last year and buy the losers so the big mover today in the dow is ibm, worst of last year and look at the big winners of cisco and home depot down today. All right. Well take a break here quickly, guys. Come back with the countdown and then kayla, see you top of the hour, as well. Yes. After the bell a new gallup poll has personals saying the most important problem is not the economy but the politicians. Could d. C. Rush the market this year . Two guests later on that. Zoom you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. Now its quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on your side. The evolution of luxury continues. The next generation 2015 escalade. At legalzoom you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. Now its quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on your side. Dow did today, the rally on the open and then the cascade south after the manufacturing data came in weaker than expected. They sold stocks. What did they do . Bought bonds. Yield on the 10year down to 212 today and there it is now at 2. 119 and the price of Oil Still Flirting with almost a 6year low back to levels we havent seen since may of 2009. David and bob, if you believe that oil prices will rise this year as many are saying Interest Rates go up can the stock market sustain all of that guys . It can be a sign of health. Bob has said and you have said bill many times that we are so far below normal Interest Rates that even if you just get some slight rise due to better Economic Conditions in the u. S. Its a good thing. I do worry about that affect on the dollar to cause the profit that is are being brought home by the multinationals to be worth less and i think thats one thing the market has not factored in. I think chances that oil will be in the 50s, 60s, higher than in the 30s and 40s and thats why i think a lot of people are picking at Oil Service Stocks right now, bill. Thanks guys. Have a good weekend. Happy new year bill. You, too. See you later, david. Plus signs and a lot higher earlier. Well talk about that as we get ready for the second hour of the closing bell right now. And welcome to the closing bell. Im Kayla Tausche in for kelly evans. Im Bill Griffeth in for myself. If you have just joined us we had a rally on the open. A gain of 129. Looked like off to the races to begin the year and then the weak Economic Data 10 00 a. M. Eastern took the wind out of the sails. Down 90 and now the dow up 7 to close out the day. S p struggling to remain positive. And the nasdaq down 9. 25 points. We did have a bigger buy order at the end of todays session. That propelled the dow into positive territory. A little bit bigger than 500 million according to art cashin and see the markets settling out after that lets bring in the panel, ben white, susan lee from hong kong, john spelizani and with us for more is tim seymour. A lot to get to today. John well start with you because we did see the wind being taken out of the sails of the markets by data which was a little bit lighter than expected. But then we bounced back and we think so goes january, so goes the year. Is there anything to take away from todays trade to set us up for the rest of the snontmonth . Dra his comments in the papers say theyre just about ready to go. Portugal down. Spain. Thats huge moves. Our treasurys rallied a lot and positive Going Forward and we are again benefiting of europe. The deflationary pressure that is are in europe are affecting our bond yield even though we hit 5 gdp growth last quarter so those are positives longer term. Short term guys are still on vacation. People are coming back until monday. I think that the trade today is basically unmuted. A lot of sectors shorted last year performed the best this year. The energy stocks. Obviously telecommunication, technology and health care. Thats what performed the best. Tloez the most shorted and safe plays for the first day of the year. For mario draghi ready aim, ready aim, ready aim. They havent fired yet. Tim, what did you trade with conviction or do you just wait until next week with a full week to trade on . We cant overdue today. I think if you look at january, the january effect in terms of that which had been sold tax loss selling is a big deal. There are places to make money in the worst sectors as were talked about and see a lot of energy names. Im not making a call on the turn in energy but i think you will see the energy names continue to have a bit of a bounce here as those names especially some of the better Balance Sheets in the e and p land and watch rates, lower rates people thought for the market last year was bad and then good and i think rates are probably going higher and my gutsiest call for the year and grounding and by the end of the first and Second Quarter and i think thats very very supportive to the names most beaten up and takes sometime. We keep hearing dont count out the central bank of any country. Not least of which the Federal Reserve. China. The ecb. But do you think that investors are right to say, look. First Interest Rate cut in china since 2012. That market wont feel any negative effects from sentiment because of that . That will prop up the market. Is that the right takeaway . They expect for liquidity and stimulus and shares rallied yesterday in hong kong and the highest in hong kong in three years. China overtook japan as a second largest equity market in the world and thank more hopes and expectations of the central bank to do something more and maybe cuts and Interest Rate cuts and helping real estate et cetera. How long will it take the effects to be born out in the markets . A few months. Even with some of the targeted moves of the end of the last year, not requiring banks to put down so much in reserves, thats to free up 3 million yuan in cash and sounds small and it was a pretty big move talking about trillions of stimulus instead of billions and what you get with rrr cuts. Lets add peter costa to the mix just finishing up the executions. Do you make anything of this first day . The volatility was pretty good. Yeah. It was great volatility. You know if there was anybody to even watch it or play with it, it would have been one of the most wonderful days and nobody around to do anything. So i dont know how much i really how much stock i put into today. Monday with data coming out next week i think thats a little bit more indicative of the year to have. Not going by the first day this time at least. Ben white, we have some data coming out. Not least of which is payrolls data and had solid growth on average throughout 2014. Really positive print on gdp. Do you think that washington will use that data to its afl . Probably not. Washington doesnt use anything to its advantage anymore. As you said well get the jobs report friday, likely to show another 200,000 plus number to lead us to believe that there will be that fed tightening mid to late year. The big question hanging over d. C. Is how republicans are going to handle the new majority. With will they work with president obama on tax reform immigration . Other issues. Or another blowup on the debt ceiling in march. My guess is we probably do so enjoy some stock market fun until march and then the d. C. Fireworks will begin then. Yes. Well get more on that when john joins us later on this hour. Keeps everything fun for us. Yes, it does. John are you keeping one eye on d. C. . What do you expect out of there . Anything to impact the markets in trading . I think that you know harry reid had an accident and hoping that may have stunned him to come together with the republicans. Were hoping for that. Hopefully he feels better. Obviously, were Going Forward and i think right now same thing. Technology trillions, tax policy and time so time is on our side. Trillions is on our side. Now to just get both parties to come together. Obama wants to go out i think on a high note and doesnt the presidency to be a lame duck last two years and no quote unquote failed presidency and the hinges prior to january positive for his numbers up to 48 i guess even though he was pushing back hard after the election and kind of took what happened in the election off the front pages and a good strategy on his part. We need something on taxes and something i think the jones act thats a big deal especially with oil at 50. The fact that i dont know how to say that either. Con den sates are now exporting more and more. Just came out this week more. And theyre going to go from 250,000 to 1 Million Barrels per year out of the country, right . So were thats a huge thats a quadrupleing. Probably will help some of our producers because now the jones act falls and we sell more abroad. We have geopolitics writ large looming in the background. New sanctions of north korea today. Tim seymour, with your expertise being the emerging markets, im wondering what in the world of geopolitics youre watching this year to potentially be a wild card in the markets. I think its got to be europe. Its got to be the periphery. These are things that are markets and certainly if there is a riskoff moment it started it sorry for the cliches and hurt Capital Markets and the flows and the end and the euro if you start to see the dollar selling off thats going to be the sign that youre seeing risk off. People are going to be actually taking back and paying back some of the funding trades and you will see more global risk and come if greece does really start to scare people and scare the germans away from the ecb and cat loan yeah and spain is a concern and if you think venezuela and russia are even that is are black swans yeah. The Oil Economies are teetering the most. Emerging will underperform and picking stocks matters and in emerging theres fantastic multinational positioned companies in this country to do well like nike and starbucks. Guys im just getting wires just covering the fact that Pimco Total Return Fund which we all know has had a tough couple of years, the numbers are in. They had another 19 billion of net withdrawals in the month of december. On top of the 9 billion that came out in november. Its suffered mightily on bad bets and then of course the leaving of bill gross and mohammed and you wonder what impact that has on Interest Rates down the road as more money heads to other funds and they have to make their name and market share and the bets they make expecting the fed to start to raise Interest Rates here. Well i tell you what bill. It is a big deal. You have a lot of funds under pressure and seeing energy funds also that probably blew up into year end and investors not shown the pain yet. I think the treasury market is much bigger and more liquid than that and the credit markets are where we are. Watching the fallout of the Energy Sector ai think you can see it harbingers of more bad news to come. Peter, we have talked about youre waiting to get back in the market. Typically. We all point out beginning of new year new money comes to the market. What are you waiting for . Im very selective about where i think my money should go and i think its more towards, you know what . Im watching a couple of Cyber Security companies. I like them very much. You know . Im going to pick my spots to get back in the market. I think theres a lot of value around. I just think it takes a lot of work to find it. But you know what . This is a year this is a year of stock pickers year. Last year wasnt. I think this year will be. Being more selective . Yes. Thank you all. Well let you go tim. See you and the rest of the crew at 5 00 p. M. On fast money with the new years resolutions for trading and maybe more about fitbirths and fitdness resolutions there, as well. Right, kayla . Yes. Yes. Thank you very much. I have to think theres something fitness related there after all a lot of traders with sole cycle a couple of weeks ago. Washington about to look a lot different now that republicans control the senate as well. Should investors be concerned about how a divided d. C. Will affect wall street and your money . Thats coming up next. And 2015 ringing in a higher minimum wage in 20 states. Coming up, well debate whether that will help or hurt the economy. We want the know what you think. Your chance to vote on that issue is coming up. Welcome back. According to a new gallup poll for the first First Time Since 2007 more americans are worried about politicians and government than they are about the economy and unemployment. And with the to try to compromise with Firm Republican majorities in both the senate and the house, are those fears justified . Its an important question starting the new year so lets bring in cnbc wheef washington correspondent john harwood with the panel and today of mr. Morning money himself, ben white. Whats on tap for washington this year and what are the milestones that the market should be watching . You mentioned the debt ceiling earlier. Thats probably the main one. Before that in february the government will have to renew funding for homeland security. That didnt get in the yearend bill that passed congress because republicans want to fight the president on immigration reform. I dont think that means much to markets or really to washington. Republicans wont defund homeland security. That would be political suicide for them. Look to march 15th whether the initial debt limit deadline to be raised. Treasury can push it back but some agreement will have to be made to raise the borrowing limit. Do republicans push for big spending cuts and does the white house say well veto that . We could bet back and forth that would scare the market. There could be noise between now and then. John while we have are there big differences now that the republicans are in charge . There was talk of tax reform. This was a big deal for a while s. That dead now . Rolling back obamacare s. That dead now . What do you see as a Big Initiative out of both either the house or the senate in this new year . Rolling back obamacare is dead. Thats not going to happen. Although there will be noise. Ben just alluded to. I think tax reform is not dead but its quite unlikely. Its very hard lift for the two parties even under good circumstances and tax reform is difficult. But i agree with the overall tone of what ben said. Were not going to have government shutdown. We wont have a debt crisis. That alone will be calming to markets. Theres a possibility that we could get the completion of the transpacific partnership. The negotiation of a move toward emphasis of u. S. Involvement and role in asia. And i think that is a place where likely republicans and democrats will Work Together because that is a shared priority of the white house and the republican leadership. But on all these things i think we have to be cautious and say we cant predict everything. You were talking before the break about fitness and exercise. Harry reid broke some ribs on a piece of exercise equipment over the equipment. And his face. You never know. Second time in a few years, too, by the way. Give up exercise is my view. Our thoughts are with harry reid as he embarks on his recovery. Ben, maybe we wont see rolling back of obamacare but we have seen republicans pushing to roll back at least parts of doddfrank with the swaps pushout rule eased and the firestorm that ensued. Do you think well see it targeted furtherer . I think we probably will see it targeted. Now they can Work Together on efforts to roll back certain things, particularly where it concerns the Consumer Protection bureau. Republicans and banks hate it. The white house will not allow it to get passed. They basically laid down a marker with the spending bill with that swaps pushout language pulled back saying we think this is a better deal and take the spending deal and we are not going to walk back doddfrank next year. Well veto it. Elizabeth warren will be all over them if they look like theyll walk back doddfrank and brings in the president ial Campaign Aspirations of Hillary Clinton and wont want the see the white house selling out doddfrank at all and i would not look for that to happen and republicans will try it cfpb and maybe other stuff. But its going to fail if it goes to the white house. Theyll send it right back. John before you go, the president signed some more sanctions on north korean certain individuals on the assumption that it was responsible, this is retaliation for the sony hack. What can you tell us about those sanctions . Well the u. S. Has had for many years severe sanctions on north korea so the direct impact of these sanctions is likely to be limited although the individuals named were named for the first time under u. S. Sanctions, in part i was on a background call with some Administration Officials this afternoon, in part theyre trying to use the force of persuasion with other countries where some of these north korean individuals, in particular people who sell arms to try to get other countries to not do business with them. Interesting note on this call, the statement from the White House Press secretary said that the sanctions, the president signed and implemented today through the Treasury Department were our first reaction to the north korean hack of sony pictures. That is an indication although not definitive that the United States was likely not responsible for the internet outage in north korea which when it first came up the u. S. Government didnt deny or affirm any role in that hack. They didnt affirm it today but by saying this is the first in the u. S. Proportional response that was a suggestion at least that that was not a u. S. Blackout of north korea a few days ago. John i wonder if i could ask you a critical question for the year ahead of 2015 and not about north korea but the starting quarterback of the washington redskins. Do you think well start the fall in 2015 with Robert Griffin iii . I have to know johns opinion on this. I do. But i think that franchise is such a mess and i say that with pain in my heart because i grew up with that franchise and have been going to games since i was in the fourth grade. I dont know whats going to happen to the general manager an the coach. Im assuming for now that bruce allen, jay gruden and rg3 will be there and just as bad as this year was. Did you notice how harwood he isnt filling me with hope. He didnt change tone. North korea to d. C. Thats crazy. I want to ask you, bill whos going to win the ohio stateoregon game . Oregon. Thats going to be a nice this College Playoff is great. A great game. Great. And the two team that is had something to prove in this whole thing and im glad to see them back in there. I said it. Yep. Thank you john. You bet. Harwood and white and i are always out there tweeting in football games. Dont get between them and their twitter in the matches. Most of the stocks underperform the market in 2014 of these specific companies so are these ceos now on the hot seat for the current year . Plus, well look at who isnt on the list and maybe should be. Could this be the year that big banks start doing business with potpreneurs . Ng never stops tdd 18003452550 even on the go. 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Tdd 18003452550 call 18776703357. Tdd 18003452550 or visit schwab. Com trading. Tdd 18003452550 schwab trading services. Tdd 18003452550 your goto for trading knowhow. Tdd 18003452550 2015 could be a make or break year for highprofile ceos. Yes. Mary thompson looks at which ones may be on the hot seat. Mary . Theyll be under a microscope as several put to work strategies to reinvigorate the brands and hopefully quiet the critics. We want to start with twitters dick costolo. Dogged by the inability to keep key managers at twitter. He is banking on a plan calling for strengthening the core audience making it easier to use and introducing new services to attract new users. All of this to hope to reverse the 47 decline in 2014. A new year will bring a new menu for mcdonalds. Part of ceo Don Thompsons recipe for sales growth in the u. S. And the biggest market. In a lot of ways hes under the most pressure because any results from this new menu is quickly eminent in the stock revenue. Yahoo is up but critics dont care and credit it to the stake in alibaba not ceo Marissa Mayers perform. The question is what will she do with the money and then revive the ad business which accounts for about 40 of its revenue. Now, coke stock delivered flat returns on flat sales and weak profits in 2014. So muhtar kent is looking to add fizz to the business pulling out of the low margin bottling business. Analysts wonder if the plan is enough to combat the slowing growth in the core soft drink business and if he can do it fast enough to keep restless investors at bay. Ginni rometty abandoned a profit forecast and this freed them to re reinvigorate for their corporate clients. Well watch for the results. We will. We want the panel to weigh in on all of this. One more name i notice is not on the list we all are familiar with around here. They were our former owners ge. Jeff immelt leading the company now since 2001. And it has not ever seen the prices that it hit when he took over around 60 a share and last year it was a laggard definitely down 10 . So wouldnt you think you know theres never been a discussion about, you know as he continues to remake the company, why his tenure is not called into question either right . It is interesting, bill. I received a couple of tyyies about that. He has the support of the board. We all know that. Hes also right just about to deliver on a promise that was made following a revamping of the company that followed the financial crisis. Hes almost set to deliver 75 of the firms profits from the Industrial Base and anyone who knows, you know any board member of a company of size like ibm or ge knows it takes a while to do this and people say hes bet big on the energy business. Look at whens happened. It is not his fault that Energy Prices declined. If you believe in the longterm Growth Prospects for energy it may be a good bet and as you point out, he took over the company at a time when the industrial Growth Stocks had a very pricey valuation on them and certainly the stock is an underperformer since then. Seems to be aware of the performance, mary. Said in an interview with cnbc if i dont perform i should be out of the company. You heard it from him if youre watching the interview. Id love the panels thoughts on the ceos. Do you agree . I do agree. I wonder and what mary thinks about this. What dick costolo needs to do at twitter for the confidence of the investors. User growth numbers, new services . Seems like twitter as hot as it everybody was. But in the larger world, it doesnt connect in the same way and what needs to happen at twit tore get him off the hot seat . I think you definitely need to bring in new users. Thats one of the key things. You know seeing more of how he monetizes the service and i think really clarity of vision if they had confidence in the fact to keep a Management Team on board if he could basically say what twitter is consistently you know thats sitting well with investors. They want consistency in the message. Can i throw out a name . Whats mary think of takata grandson of takata and makes the faulty air bags resulting in 24 million cars recalled worldwide but youre not going to get rid of the ground son of the founder. They have done everything wrong in this case and theres no Corporate Governance right now. Should be a very hot seat. Should be. You know of course you bring up one point that would be clear. Grandson of the founder, certainly theres a family will to keep him there to some extent. Whether or not he stays i think probably becomes his decision. Am i right the person for the job and whether or not they have the humility to decide maybe they need some new blood to improve the companys public face at this time remains to be seen. Whether theres a Strong Enough board to make that decision maybe for him. They just got rid of the first foreign president of the airbag company and blames seems like him for the 24 million recalls. Always needs to be a skap scapegoat on one like that. Ford motor company, too. All right. Mary thanks so much. Good stuff. Thank you mary. Minimum wage workers got a raise in nearly half of all states yesterday. But will a higher minimum wage help or hurt the economy . We want the know what you think. Thats the question. Head to cnbc. Com vote. Weigh in with your thoughts. And could the push to legalize pot in more states go up in smoke this year . Jane wellss put push does back predictions are coming up after the break. First day of the new year saw 20 states increase their min numb wage yesterday. As a result now half of the states in the union, that would be 29 more than half have a minimum wage thats greater than the federal minimum wage which is still at 7. 25 per hour. Well in case youre wondering, california is now the highest at 9 an hour but despite this wave of increases, theres a fair amount of disagreement of whether minimum wage increases are actually good for bad for the economy. So well debate that right now and we want to hear from you. Please go to cnbc. Com vote, we are asking what impact does raising minimum wage have on the economy . Joining us is aruni vitori michael saltzman. Make the case for raising the minimum wage. Well, first and foremost, theres a moral question. If people work for living they should be earning enough money to pay their expenses provide for children housing, clothing all of that. Theres an economic case here as well. We are a consumerdriven economy. Over 70 of ow economy comes from Consumer Spending. When workers dont have money in the pockets, they cant spend it at businesses and thats a drag on the economy. And you dont have to take my word for it. Michael what about the fact that this becomes more expensive for companies to hire more people . Do you think in all honesty that higher minimum wage means fewer jobs overall . It is not just myself who thinks that. Its most of the Economic Research thinks that nonpartisan congressional budget office. Theres nothing moral of a Public Policy to cause people to lose hours at work or their jobs. We talk about everyone getting a raise come the new year and the Elementary School economics only work if you assume theres no consequences of new mandates on low margin employers that cant pass all of that cost on to the customers. I want to share the oxygen in the room. Michael, the extent to which the job losses are offset by increased Consumer Spending that you get from folk who is are now earning more more in the pocket more takehome pay and spend more and theoretically more demand and more hiring and if you get the money in the pocks, there will be ancillary hiring to take that money. But the question is whether where the money comes from. If its higher prices and low margin employer who is then have to reduce Staffing Levels who have to do a Grocery Stores and stop hiring people who bag groceries, have customers do it themselves theres fewer opportunities to go around and when economists looked at this they found that any shortterm stimulus to the economy is not too long out a drag on the economy after the minimum wage goes up and why when you look at the research you dont see a stimulative impact and its a conservative economist and people who the Organization Support also would believe that as well. Bill thats not true unfortunately. If you look at the preponderance of economic evidence its a very well studied subject and show that theres little to know impact on jobs as a result of raising the minimum wage and you need to not only look at the studies but real life here. 13 states in 2014 increased their minimum wage and stronger job growth on average than the state that is did not. You have cities like San Francisco and seattle with some of the highest minimum wages in the country. They have some of the smallest largest Small Business job growth of any jurisdictions around the nation. You know we should talk about defending the studies that show overwhelmingly that raising the minimum wage is not only good for the workers but the economy, as well. We should talk about real life. I was in michigan last month and talked to a Restaurant Owner that closed the doors 12 people 12 flesh and blood people that used to have jobs and no longer have jobs and this is the face of the unintended consequences of policies that organizations like the National Employment law project support and may sound good to talk about how were boosting Consumer Spending but the research and the real hard evidence shows you hurt the people that you intend to help. Talk about michigan a second. Theres another company, thank you, bill. A company there that pays 15 an hour. Restaurants like pie pizza and costco and trader joes. All of them pay very good wages and theyre all expanding and all doing very well in business. I think Companies Like that appreciate a much higher a floor to create a level Playing Field and shouldnt have to compete against some of the big Restaurant Owner and favor making money on the backs of workers. John, you want to get in on the conversation, as well . Yeah. I was going to say that the price of gasoline going down is a much more stimulative and bigger benefit than raising the minimum wage right now so the fact that gasoline is down is huge. Obamacare, the 30hour work week is hurting Small Businesses as well as the small person looking for a job that those Small Businesses arent creating jobs and basically if you look at the jobs created last few years all in the energy and production side of the economy. Not really on the service side so Small Business is really if you equate all the money giving out in terms of raising the minimum wage and give a tax credit to have those employees start a business, credit is tight and difficult to have that side of economy creating the job that is we need to be created. I will sound like im making a political statement but im not. Trust me. I wish larry kudlow would be here. This is red meat for him. I started my career in 1981. What was the minimum wage in 1981 when we started . 3. 35. Its been raised seven times since then and there is much gnashing of teeth and an arguments through each of those increases with the same debate were having right now about whether or not it kills jobs and the economy and last i looked we have a pretty good economy on our hands with an Unemployment Rate of 5. 8 . Michael, i just wonder if were just kind of misleading people. I mean i rue those 12 jobs that people that lost their jobs and one restaurant because of the rate going up but are we overemphasizing what it does to Small Business out there raising the minimum wage here . Well i dont think so. I think were surrounded by the evidence of the unintended consequences of higher minimum wage. In states like california oregon and washington that have these high minimum wages you have teen rate Unemployment Rates close to 30 . We go into the businesses today and you have seen them that stopped hiring busboys. They have servers bus their own tables now and talked about Grocery Stores and other restaurants automating. These are the sort of changes happening directly in response to higher labor costs. We can have a conversation about what the Research Shows and the research very clearly does show that higher minimum wage reduces jobs but i think in the every day lives whats happening is were changing Business Models and what the consequences is its chopping off the bottom rungs of the career ladder for the least skilled and experienced to get a job and what they become is a lost generation without the same experience of previous generations and bad for everyone. We have to go. Sorry. We have to go at this point. We are running out of time. Thank you both for your thoughts on this. Well close the poll on our vote from the viewers. It is unscientific. They choose to vote. We dont choose them. 56 believe that an increase in the minimum wage helps the economy while the other 44 belief it hurts the economy. Thank you for your votes. Lets see. Junk is out. And fresh is in. For 2015. As americas fast food joints. Thats the trend for this new year. According to one of the most popular stories on cnbc. Come. Up next well check and see if that story can crack todays hot list. And still to come jane wells with the pot playbook for 2015 with more states looking at legalizing marijuana well see what that means for the emerging weed economy on the other side of this break. Dramatic changes in the oil market is a constant as must read of the late on the website. Today it is no different, is it kayla . No. And for that and more as always allen wastler. Take it away. Oil is a big attraction for us pretty much for the whole month. Price of gasoline going down. Everybody wanting to know why. We have a piece taking a look at the trends that are happening. Basically, American Shale Oil coming on the market. What opec is going to do and what its options are. People have been eating up that story today. Interesting thing i found in it was the price range for Oil Everywhere from 43 a barrel all the way up to 115. The experts cant figure out where its going so its obviously a big question mark. Number two was the story of Katie Thompson looking at five new tech hubs that you probably havent heard of city that is are coming up youve heard of Silicon Valley these are ones getting the Tech Community started. Biggest surprise omaha, nebraska. There you go. Number three, restaurant stories always do well on the website and mcdonalds is a big attraction. You had Mary Thompson on earlier talking about the challenges facing the mcdonalds ceo. We have a story going down what changes they got coming down the pike. Create your own taste and custom make your own burgers, thats getting the attention. There you go. The story says that theyre going to put more emphasis on the lovin tag line. Well see. Dont mess with the quarter pounder too much. They took away my hot and tasty. What about the wraps . Those were really good. I never tried it. They were excellent. I did like the hot and tasty. What, ben . Nobody goes to mcdonalds to eat a wrap. You go in there apparently. Burger fries, mcnuggets. I think the real hot list is that way with no ben white politics stories. That would be at the top if there was one, right . When will we get our next . Monday january 5th. Website is blowing up monday with a huge outlook on the i dont know what im writing monday. Ill start to make it up now. Jeb bush in 2016. Susan thats what im here for. What are you paying for gasoline in asia . Depends where. Where you are. Where in hong kong kind of pricey, right . So its what is it . By the liter. Yeah. If i do the quick conversion to gallons, probably i would say say its still over 3. One interesting thing bill if you look at what happened in china when the Chinese Market really started the go higher right, everybodys talking about the Hong Kong Link and the price of oil and track it against the shanghai composite you see once oil started to fall as that composite just continued to ramp and ramp. Its an inverted chart. Cutting pump prices finally. Who will it help the most . It is going to help india, china and japan. Covering the gamut today. Gas prices and covering some marijuana up next with jane wells. Only jane wells can cover a story like that laying out the pot playbook for 2015. She has one, yes. Does she think more states legalize marijuana as a way to generate revenue . She is doing a lot of research on this. Tell us what she found when we come back. Pot entrepreneur year for legal sales of marijuana. So what will 2015 bring for pot . Our jane wells has some predictions. Reporter america is going to pot. And in 2015 tax revenues from legal Recreational Marijuana will explode like a weed not just in colorado and washington but in newly legal markets, alaska, oregon and washington, d. C. In inhale these prethree predictions. First, bank on it. The one key thing in all this business is banking. Banks can accept legal pot money but most banks still dont want to touch it fearing regulators will change their minds. In 2015 banks will start opening up accounts for potpreneurs because alternative Banking Systems will pop up to take that business from them. Second, pot pushback. Despite more states legalizing cannabis cannabis, in 2015 you will besign to see some voters remorse as cities deal with a lot of people using a lot of pot because now it is legal. Third, pot of gold. Despite the pushback more states will legalize adult use of marijuana with the biggest of all probably coming in 2016. California where most of the nations homegrown illegal pot is already produced in humboldt county. The local paper has warned growers there who fear eventual takeover by big tobacco legal pot is coming. Plan now or fail. By the way, do not miss the brandnew documentary, marijuana country the cannabis boom. Monday night, 9 00 p. M. Eastern time right here on cnbc. It ought to be a big one. Next week is the first full week of trading in the new year and it is a big one for Economic Data. Well get our panels preview of the jobs number thats out next friday. Could be the key to if and when the fed decides to start raising Interest Rates. After this. Whys that . Look what daddys got. Ahhhhhhhhhh growth you can count on from the bank where no branches equals great rates. So ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts . Thats right. Its just that im worried about you know hidden things. Ok, whys that . No hidden fees from the bank where no branches equals great rates. It the fed says it is data dependent on making decisions on Interest Rates. If thats the case next week shapes up to be a important one. The bigticket item comes out a week from day, the nonfarm pay rolls report. I believe the last consensus number i saw was 2. 40. Year over year we are expecting some pretty positive numbers. Last year it was 74,000 because of the vortex. I think the number will probably be in the 240,000, 250,000. Maybe a 300,000 handle. The thing to watch in terms of the fed, do we see this wage increase really kind of picking up in a way that the fed will have to respond to and make a move at the meeting in the middle of the year to start an Interest Rate hike. Probably status quo, 200,000plus jobs number. Watch the wages figure. The fed minutes next week too. To see how they decipher the considerable time that they left in but took out type of thing. I think even if you look at the yield curve, the most the fed can raise rates in the next two years at the moment is 1 . I dont think the fed will raise rates higher than the twoyear treasury. Even if they raise a quarter or 50 basis points the effect on the overall economy is miniscule. And i dont think they want to raise rates in the face of draghi doing massive qe. One of the massive things that came out today, the ism said companies are waiting for lower prices. The ism index was lower today. Thats deflation. Thats deflationary thoughts taking hold which are very hard to stamp out if they do take hold. I think there is a lot to do about the fed raising rates, et cetera. Saying dont dismiss some deflationary signs in the market. But you wonder if the fed in its entirety will be addressing that. I think janet yellen knows that she doesnt have to raise rates 25 basis points at a pop if things start to get out of hand. If you have another 300,000 job print, that becomes a trend, higher wages, she can go 50 basis points but the bond market is dictating whats going on and bond yields continue to compress around the globe. I think also if oil breaks 50, thats going to tell us something. It is not just opec thats telling us that Global Growth is slowing a lot more than people think. Susan lee, do we expect more action from the people bank of china . I was going to pick up on the deflationary note with cpi in china 1. 3 that is deflation for a country of 1. 3 billion. The central bank and chinese authorities feel like they need to do something right now. Hence we are looking at markets. China was one of the best performing stock markets last year, up 53 . China and hong kong are interlinked right now. People are hoping there are expectations to get more liquidity. Susan, so nice to have you here with us through the holiday. What are you watching next week . Im going skiing in colorado. Ill take a closer look at whats happening with the pot debate. But then shes off to davos. Off to davos, off to london. It should be interesting. Busy month of january. Vr a good weekend. That does it for us here on the closing bell. Thanks for joining us today. Busy and volatile day to kick off 2015. See you later, kayla. Have a good weekend. Fast money starts right now. Mandy drury starting us off here. Yes, fast money starts right now. We are live from the nasdaq marketsite in new yorks times square. Im mandy drury sitting in for melissa lee. This is our first fast money of 2015 and coming up our traders are going to give you their new years investing resolutions. But were going to start with the moves today. Stocks losing team after rallying right out of the gate. They say as january goes so goes the year. I know this is only one day, it is only the first day of the trading year but should we be bracing for a little more volatility here in 2015 . January so far i know youre