Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141201

Degree. The real question is, why . Is black friday dead as an entity in the Holiday Shopping season . Well get into that and more. We did all those stories leading up to black friday suggesting that it was losing its cache. In fact, that its goneful left the building just like elvis and hearing from tony hsieh. Now starting to open up brick and Mortar Stores in vegas and a popup store open 24 7. Almost a showroom. Perhaps a glimpse into the future of retail and where hell be coming to us from and a realtime view on zappos sales there and online. We are getting indications cyber monday is strong. Not just zappos but among other online retailers, sales very, very good today. Now about oil. You think its going to be lower because of opec. Speaking of black friday. Its going the other direction today. What a bounce up more than 4 on wti crude. Posting the best oneday gain in two years. Was that the bottom we had over the weekend . One top Oil Executive thinks it may have been and hell be here to explain why. What a crazy, crazy day for the weekend i should say truly. For the energy markets. Equity markets watching that Oil Price Rebound and still down 35 points on the dow but a far cry from the declines to begin the session. We did have a stronger than expected ism manufacturing number this morning and may have helped a bit. S p meanwhile off 12 points. Nasdaq off better than 1 . Weakness particularly in apple is not helping and the russell, the small cap, 2000, taking a beating today. A quick look there. Also off to the tune of 1. 25 . And if you get a chance, show them the transportation average. Dow tranports now down 246 points. Ouch. 2. 7 decline, as well. This is one of those days as we start the month of december. Lets talk it all with kim forrest, sam stovall, mark glaciani and rick santelli. Sam, put this in perspective for us. This is a seasonally strong period for the equity markets in the u. S. And now speed bumps perhaps with what happened with retail. Retailers are down. Airlines are trading lower, as well. Oil prices are going up. Tell us whats going on. Well, bill, i think a lot of investors are still looking upon this as a high wall of worry and thats really what december is experiencing going back to world war ii and still posted the best average return, up close to 2 in this final month. And rising close to 80 of the time so obviously its no slam dunk that its going to be higher but when you have such good average performanceless at least you have to be a slight bit encouraged. We have to talk about the whip some. Still down 40 from the summer. Is this look. I love cats and no offense but a dead cat bounce were witnessing here today . Anybody that picks tops an bottoms will be burned. I wouldnt be picking a bottom just yet an its very unlike Commodity Markets that have their antiparabolic move and parabolic move to the upside for many years. Its probably going to go on longer. I would think its more of a consolidationtype bottom. Not a breakaway bottom. Just my opinion. Pay a lot of attention, kelly, not only to whats going on with the spread between boons and 10s. It narrowed today by 5 basis points so all the traders came in selling treasuries thinking that spreads going to open up again and exactly the right thing to do and near and dear to your heart we continue to see things like the barclays high yield undeposition widen a bit. About 30 basis points in the last month and still hugely, hugely well behaved compared to some of the wild volatility of 07 and 08. Tom, what do you make of the oil market . I mean, you know, a lot of people are viewing this as now a new battle of opec producers enthe bakken shale producers in north america. Do you see it that way . Who do you think wins and what happens to the price of oil . Well, yeah, i do see it that way. One of the interesting things of the opec meeting is multiple reports saying non gulf producers wanted a cut and gulf producers, ie saudi arabia, said no. Theyre clearly tar getting shale. I agree with rick. Picking tops and bottoms is a fools errand. I dont think were done here. I dont think saudi arabia is done pressuring the shale producers so i would expect a lot more volatility and probably lower prices in oil. Tom, why are we talking about this . Saudi arabia is pressuring them and battling to stay relevant in a world that keeps pumping crude. Well, i think what they have done is they have targeted shale as the marginal producer to most effect. Looking at u. S. Imports, way down. Now you look at asia. Generally lowing. I think saudi arabia is very nervous. I think they feel they can squeeze the shale producers and put some of them out of business. Whether or not they succeed, well see. Technology increased substantially. Thats the play for now. Mark, you agree. I mean, this, you know, we view this as consumers, this drop this oil as a good thing, but we are a producing nation in a big way, now, too. And thats not a good thing, right . Its not. U. S. Shale is profitable at these levels and lower before you question the profitability of the producers here in this country and not enough to disrupt the good news story that the Energy Renaissance here in the United States as evidenced by the last segment showing how low employment there is in north dakota and true across really a lot of the major fossil fuel fields here in the United States and that said it is something, though, to monitor because if it does go longer or again oil wars breaking out, and it will be a question of watching who blinks first. Would you be willing to step in . Maybe youre already in oil stocks. They have been getting clobbered. Would you be willing to step in on them now . We would, bill, but more inclined to stay with the quality battleships, those particularly with quality dividend yooelds like the chevrons, Conoco Phillips to clip a handsome coupon, weather the environment of which prices go lower yet and if the time horizon is sufficiently long, we think youll be rewarded. You can see there from the moves across the majors, other investors making the same calculation, kim. If we could turn to the rubble from black friday and whats happening today, as well. Where we have perhaps strong numbers of ebay and indications of amazon and then the share price action in the amazons, alibabas and apple is weak. What do you think is going on here . Whats the message . I think the message is that there is always going to be winners and losers regardless of what the fundamentals are in a marketplace. So the sales look like they came in rather flight a very small time period of this Holiday Season. And i dont think its over yet. You know, i dont know if you get your email box full of ads that i do. Oh no. Oh no. Over the weekend, it was hundreds, hundreds of emails. But even before that, there were the pre black friday prices. You know . All that kind of stuff. All the retailers are really fighting for that dollar. It makes for thats good for the consumer and if you pick right its good for an investor. Because as i said, theres going to be winners and losers. Do you have a sense of who they are or who at least youre betting on, kim . This is the question hanging over us for the next month. Sure. Im looking at high quality merchandise earls that have a great track record of being able to serve up the consumers want. So we hold two stock that is are consumer related in our portfolios. One is vf corp. And the other is urban. Urbans a little down on its luck because of its name Urban Outfitters but they have anthropology and thats what were going with and looking at ebay, amazon, i think theyre good for the consumer. Im not all that sure theyre great for investors. Sam, same question to you. I mean, if we have this seasonally strong period or at least we can get over the speed bumps we are facing right now, who do you guys at s p capital iq like . What mark said is pretty much what were thinking. We focus on the s p capital iq quality rankings, a consistency measure of increasing earnings and dividends and you have Companies Offering dividend yields of 3 to 4 . And when youre dealing with a longer term perspective, right now, you probably do want to start nibbling on some of the energy stocks. But, sam, let mess just jump in for a second. This is dangerous advice. If we havent really grappled with what happens if Oil Prices Stay down here. I understand they have a good yield and so do the tell come names, for example. Why go into this space and so cash flow dependent when if anything they might be sacrificed for other decisions made to keep them going that hurt the business longer term . Well i think thats the decision to make when youre trying to be an opportunist and trying to get in before the rest of the street gets in. What i did was looked back over past 25 years and found that we only had six times of relative performances that were as low as this one and on a 24month basis, the Energy Sector beat the market 6 of 6 times and outperformed by 16 Percentage Points on average. Wow. Theres some track record there at least. Indeed. Thank you all. Have a good Holiday Weekend. Very much appreciate it. Again, a pretty impressive comeback for the dow today. Only down 27 points. Hovering around 17,800. But a lot of damage beneath the surface today as mentioned in those transports and some of the tech names. Didnt mention gold with a stellar day, as well. Oil up about 4 . So was the price of gold and the gold etf getting to in a hoemt here. Apple having a dramatic trading session, as well. Look at the movement today. Dominic chu will get to the core it says here. Of whats happening with the tech giant shares. Thats coming up. Also ahead, online flash sale company gilt groupe killed it on friday. The ceo is here to tell us how they did it and if their cyber monday is turning out to be just as good. We are back in two. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around 329 a month. Where do we begin to tell you about this market day . Dow down 28. Sounds quiet. Nasdaq down. Apple contributing to that today. If it werent for oil stocks higher today, the dow would be down more. Oil prices up 4 having the best oneday gain in over two years. Gold same thing. And transports down 250 points because of that higher oil price. Just been a crazy, crazy day. So, too, for black friday digging through what happened with holiday and weekend shopping, cyber monday is in full swing and shippers like u. P. S. Fedex and the post office about to get busier. Morgan brennan looks at what theyre doing to get your orders delivered on time. Morg morgan. Theyre expecting another record peak season so the National Retail federation expects online holiday sales to increase 8 to 11 this Holiday Season and while cyber monday is big, people are waiting longer to make their purchases and according to ship matrix, the rate of growth in shipments week of cyber monday has been slowing down. You could see that here. Expected to continue this week, as well. And a lot of that has shifted to lastminute demand to once again test shippers networks and why 2 million packages missed the christmas deliveries last year and its why shippers now expect their busiest days later in the month. So u. P. S. Just three days before christmas and fedex, two weeks later than its 2013 forecast. U. P. S. And fedex to meet the demand pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into their networks and of course the Postal Service is already making sunday deliveries. Will it be enough . Analysts think so. A lot of that depends on the weather. Thats the wild card this year. Ship matrix says shippers do seem better prepared for heavier volumes based on improved on time delivery rates for thanksgiving. Early indicator and taking a look at both of these companies, stocks over the last 12 months, with Lower Oil Prices, both u. P. S. And fedex hitting fresh 52week highs recently. They really got to deliver those packages on time for that to continue this season. Back the you. All the efforts focused on doing that right now. Thank you. While black friday sales did slump this year one online retailer seeing a huge uptick to sales. That would be gilt. Com. Its an Online Ecommerce site specializing in flash sales for designer brands. They say sales were up 20 on this black friday compared to last years black friday. Michelle paluso joins us. Shouldnt you be at a Mission Control today wringing your hands a lot . Monitoring sales. The day after thanksgiving youre with family and every five minutes sneaking off to see what sales have done. We were talking earlier. It was a rather confusing day on friday for sales, wasnt it . Absolutely. So there are different competing reports out and we all woke up to stats saying it was a tough year potentially down more than 10 . At gilt we saw black friday sales increase 20 year over year. A record day overall and through the Holiday Weekend and right into until i left the office today, we were up 20 again. Youre 7 years old and not just because youre newer. You still are. What is it that was driving that 20 increase . Can you break down how much of that was price versus transactions . First of all i think black fridays become cyber monday in some ways. If you dont have to get up and drive to the store and wait in line and potentially do battle with one person who wants the same thing you want i agree. Why wouldnt you stay home and enjoy . We are better at returns and sizing and quality of the images is Strong Enough to know what youre getting so we have put a ton into that. The other big story is international. We worked very hard this year at localizing merchandise for china, korea. Is this a u. S. Sales total gilt u. S. Up high teens and international up even more so international comprised about over 20 of revenue on black friday. Mobile sales also. I have a theory. People may have been showrooming a lot. Right . We saw foot traffic on friday and the sales didnt pan out, as well. We are seeing it online and people out there because they could, you know, do the showrooming and then buy it online. I think we find that even foot traffic down year on year and the real data, wall street Journal Running on this. The past few years and i think well find that but i think you go into the store and see what you want and then online to find a better price or get it to your house. Chances are you can. Chances are good. We watch and talking to tony shay later and zappos and places starting online are going bricks and mortar. Will you pursue that strategy . It seems like a great fit potentially for people to be able to get something tailored, feel the fabric. I know the way youre set up thats tough. But would Something Like that be in your future. I think for us we saw the price points and so i think there are time quhs they want to see it or try it on and we have been thinking about it a little bit. We have warehouse sales today and a few times a year we have sales where the customers come in and we are excited about that and thinking more about the sort of offline presence. We are a digital company. Through and through. And thats been successful for us. Still no ipo. No. That was planned, though. What happened . No. Wasnt planned. We have never commented on the rumors. We have always said whether the timing is right you will know. But its not now . No. Not now. Can you tell us how cyber monday is going for you . I left the office about 1 00 to come down here and sales over 20 year on year. Last year for the first time cyber monday fell just short of black friday. Black friday edged out cyber monday and a first for us. Well see this year. Sales are strong today. Were excited about it. Michelle, good to see you. Thank you. She is going back to Mission Control now to wring her hands. And to shop and to shop, yes. Wonder where she shops. 40 minutes to go into the close. Dow only off 12 points. We may yet turn positive yet. Meanwhile, the nasdaq having a very tough day. When we come back, Steve Liesman wrapping up the exclusive interview with new york fed president william dudley. We will have the market moving highlights of that interview coming up. We want to know straight ahead if you have a holiday gift budget to stick to this year. Is that why overall sales were down this weekend . And find out why someone here says its okay to overspend for christmas. Really . Yeah. Hell state his case. People with type 2 diabetes come from all walks of life. If you have high blood sugar, ask your doctor about farxiga. Its a different kind of medicine that works by removing some sugar from your body. Along with diet and exercise, farxiga helps lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. With one pill a day, farxiga helps lower your a1c. 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Ask your doctor about farxiga and visit our website to learn how you may be able to get every month free. As we mentioned, apple among the big movers today. Dom chu, dropped like a stone on the open this morning. What was that all about . Recovered some of the losses here so lets start with the story with apple here. Morgan stanley said it was trimming the position in the company by 1 and some heavy trading, shares are down that. Technical glitches with regarding to the trading action. Tesla losing ground also today. German weekly report that bmw not interested in buying a stake in the carmaker. That news late last week. Tesla working on a second state day of losses. Amazon. Com fell after moodys changed the outlook to a negative after the announcement of issuing new debt an shares down by about 3. 5 and then the i shares silver trust etf. This ones moving sharply higher as silver prices rose 7 in heavy, heavy trading and up you can see there 7 . Gold stocks to the higher the upside here as gold prices back above that 1,200 an ounce level and big names in gold doing pretty well and ending with the casino stocks falling after gaming revenues fell another 20 to the lowest total since september of 2020. As a result, wynn, las vegas sands, mgm taking a bigger than normal hit to the rest of the overal market. Thats for sure. Thank you. William dudley speaking with Steve Liesman a short time ago exclusively. Steve joins us now. Hi, steve. Hey, kelly. Good afternoon. New york fed president dudley is a man on the hot seat after being sharply criticized at a recent Senate Hearing over failings of supervision, banks cornering Commodity Markets and secretly taped regulators. Dudley saying today it is unrealistic to think the new york fed finds everything going on at banks and did say that changes are being made in supervision. We rotate people across different institutions so you are only an examiner for three to four years before youre rotated to a new institution. We have new glomovernance abovee fed to make the key decisions. So its looking at firms on a cross firm basis. A whole bunch of changes we have made. The issue of capture is a real issue and something that we really have to guard against. I also asked him about the issue dujour and concerned about the safety and soundness of the Banking System with the debt of the Oil Companies and maybe they will go bankrupt and perhaps affect the banks because of the Lower Oil Prices and he said it was not a big area of concern. I think that there is some leverage related to the oil and Gas Exploration business under some stress but i think that the amount of dollars we are talking about are very small relative to the total size of the u. S. Economy and doesnt rise to an issue where its systemic. Heres the upside from a speech that he gave. It will boost real income growth. Support Consumer Spending and global growth. He says a 20 per barrel decline is equal to a 670 billion wealth transfer. From producers to consumers. Give me some of that. Some potential lower u. S. Investment, though, from the Lower Oil Prices. On the issue of Monetary Policy he said that mid2015 was a reasonable time to expect the fed to begin lifting Interest Rates. And that he did not see a big gap of the market is and where the fed is on Interest Rates. But he said that the fed would be very clear about when it would hike rates and could be, kelly, he says, potential for quote unquote bumps in the road when the fed begins to hike. Steve, there are interesting passages in the speech trying to say Financial Markets are really important to the transmission to Monetary Policy and there is no fed put. Let me be clear. Yeah. You know, it was really interesting the way he went out of the way to say its not just the economy but how markets react. So he definitely put the markets in the center stage coming to how they react and i think thats a lesson by the way from the tapered tantrum. The fed doesnt want that repeat Financial Market conditions which is partly the level of Interest Rates and partly the level of the equity markets are very critical to the fed in figuring out how fast to move and could be times when the fed may not act to save the market from falling if they dont see a big impact on the broader economy. You know, i know we read too much sometimes in fed speak, trying to figure out when they think theyre going to be raising Interest Rates and gave you a time frame there. They keep saying its data dependent. If the oil story continues, prices continue lower, dont you think enough of a boost on the economy that they may have to move up their timetable some point . You know, yes and no, bill. Because if theres a big push, a big increase in activity then, yes, it would be an issue but remember the effect on inflation. Exactly. I think they say, you know what . Not only the headline to come down and he believes the core is going to come down. Ultimately hes sticking to the forecast that the fed will hit its target rate of 2 next year. Or sometime soon. And hes not seeing that oil will end that. I think that they see, bill, the bigger risk they dont hit the inflation target and ultimately that means theyre not in a particular hurry to raise rates beyond the mid2015 timetable theyre kind of laying out now. All right, steve. Thank you. Great stuff. Steve liesman there with new york fed president dudley. Another thing dudley said thats so important is there could be a significant benefit to allowing the economy to run, quote, slightly hot for a while. He said this before. Right. I think Wishful Thinking that the economy not there yet. To some extent but a sense of how theyre weighing the pros and cons here. Big story over the weekend and today, opec apparently putting the squeeze on u. S. Oil producers. So now what . Jackie deangelis with a special report on energy coming up. Live poll is now open. We want to know if you have a holiday gift budget to stick to this year. We roowant to know. Find out why someone says its okay, encouraged even, to overspend for gifts. Overspend. Controversial advice for sure when we come back. In this accident. Because there was no accident. Volvos most advanced accident avoidance systems ever. The future of safety, from the company that has always brought you the future of safety. Give the gift of volvo this season and well give you your first months payment us. Outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. And today, we have a very special free gift for you. So many viewers email us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. So we put our secrets into a new book. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling, well send you a copy for free. Look at the rate of return weve made on some of our recent options trades, versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. Theres no comparison. To make the best returns in todays market, you have to learn how to trade options. And our book will show you how to do it for free. Jon has been Trading Options for more than 30 years. Pete is one of the top 100 traders in the country. And our book will teach you how to trade options for free. So call now. [ male announcer ] call the number on your screen now for your free copy of jon and petes new book. Thats. see the number on your screen call now. Energy stocks higher. Transportation and Retail Stocks moving lower various reasons. The dow down 23 points right now. Nasdaq suffering a decline this morning because of apple among other Technology Stocks. Down 58 points or 1. 25 and so many other permeations to talk about. Gold higher. Transportation lower. Look at the weakness of the alibabas and twitters. First of the month effect . A lot of reasons to scratch our head. Also this, by the way, ever okay to overspend in the holidays . That didnt seem to be a problem this past week but mike crank says you can go overboard and said the holidays are a special time and credit cards are a safe approach. So we want to hear from you go. To cnbc. Com vote. There you will find a poll asking whether you have a holiday gift budget you plan to stick to this year. Cant wait to see how that comes out. Mike joinls us and chris hogan, a Financial Planner saying you shouldnt use the holidays as an excuse to overspend. Good to see you both. Thank you for joining us today. Michael, make your case for overspending in the holidays. Okay. Well, first of all, its something that consumers do consistently. Every Holiday Season consumers overspend. It shows up in the data. I can tell you that i represent Credit Unions, roughly 6,500 Credit Unions throughout the United States. Over 100 million memberships and the data consistently shows on an analyzed basis credit card balances increase by roughly 24 in december. Whats not okay is to spend recklessly. Whens not okay is to spend beyond your means. The data also shows that Credit Union Members typically pay down roughly half of those increased balances in january and pay down 40 in february. Another 10 . Its basically paid off by march. All right. So youre saying, mike, while you dont recommend this behavior that people actually are reasonably okay about paying off these balances and spending responsibly going over budget this time of year . They have been historically. Thats the case. I dont know. I dont know. Lets see what chris has to say about this. Chris . Whats the responsible thing youre saying . I want people to always budget. I want them to make a list of the people that theyre going to shop for and i want them to set spending limits for each of those individuals and i want them to stick to it. I want them to pay cash. That way you dont have the stinging result of debt. And so i dont want people to kick off the new year with a bunch of debt with them and caution them all. Pay cash and stick to a plan. Let me point out, asking the viewers to vote. Look at this. 66 say they do not plan to stick to a budget this year, chris. Theyre sort of confirming mikes premise here. This is the time of year to overspend you do it, right . Well, i would encourage them if theyre not on a budget theres still time. We have all seen the pain that comes from overspending around the holidays. And then you wake up in january and february with this huge amount of debt that it takes some people eight to 12 months to pay off f. You dont have a budget today, sit down with a piece of paper and write out who you shop for, people in the office, babysitter, Postal Service carrier, whoever it is, make a lift and a dollar amount because debt has a sting because it charges you interest. And mike, i mean, are you trying to get more business for the Credit Unions here . Be honest. No. I share chriss concerns. We conducted a Holiday Spending survey in conjunction with the Consumer Federation of america and we offer holiday tips every year that we do that survey. Never one first and foremost set a budget and stick to it and not just for the gifts. Its for all of the other things. Will you have a party . Better include that. Are you going to buy clothing . You better include that. Are you essentially going to spend above normal amounts for anything . Decorations. You better include that. Stick to that budget. Secondly, you should shop early and make sure you shop around. And thats why its really important to go on the internet and to look at prices of various gifts to spend wisely. Earlier you do it the better. Third, yes, it is okay to increase Credit Card Debt but you want to pay it off as quickly as possible because Credit Card Debt is expensive debt. It can really put you in a hole quickly so if youve put money on the credit card, definitely pay it off quickly. Finally, think about next year this year. The holidays come every year at the same time. Right. For some reason people dont put money aside. It is an easy thing to do and go to a financial institution, a credit union and ask them to open a holiday account for you. Start putting small amounts aside and youll be in much better shape next year. Chris, apparently theyre listening to you because the voting has switched now. Now more, a majority feel theyll stick to their budgets so i guess theyre thinking about that. But, you know, come on. Admit it, chris. It is the holiday. More blessed to give than to receive. You love the look on the recipients face opening that gift and the thing that is go on. Dont occur to people buying stuff for the holidays, do they . No. It doesnt. Think about the gifts you got last year. A lot of us cant remember what we got. But we can remember the people we spent time with. So i would encourage people that if you dont have the money, be honest with people but there are gifts to give people that dont equate to money. What im talking about are gifts of money and service. Now, according to the federal reserve, this time last quarter we spent over 43 billion on credit cards. Thats a lot of money for creditors and banks. I want people to spend cash so they can feel good about what theyre doing for the people they care about. Love it. Gentlemen, thank you both. Happy holidays. Thank you for joining us. Same to you. Thank you for having me. I didnt see whats the final vote . Budgeters win . I think there we go. Close it. 56 say yes. There we go. 56 sticking to their budget. We want names. We want the know that you do that when it finally happens. Heading to the close, 18 minutes left in the session here. The dows what we watch but its not whole story today. Down 32 but the nasdaq continuing lower down 61 . 61 points or 1. 25 with apple and other Technology Stocks moving lower today but thats just part of the story. Up next, how will the low Oil Prices Impact u. S. Energy producers . Live to the nymex for a special report on the issue that could hit you in the wallet. D. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. 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Remember, all Medicare Supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call now to request your free decision guide. And learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now and down the road. I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. Oil prices rebounding today to report the biggest oneday gain of two years. Helps down 40 from the recent peak and in the wake of opecs decision friday or thursday to leave output unchanged. That led to a collapse, i mean, i dont know how else to describe it in the oil price on friday. Sure was. Today a bit of a bounce. Yeah. Twoyear thats the best gain of two years. Jackie deangelis, resident oil geek joins us now from the nymex to tell us whens going on there and what Oil Producers are likely to do about it next. Right . Thats right. Good afternoon. We didnt get that more than 4 pop today without a little volatility. We started the session lower, under 64 a barrel and then popped from there. Traders were saying they were expecting this because we went so far down so fast and more than 10 drop on friday alone after the opec meeting. Traders are also saying we could get the 70 mark but the general consensus is lower from here and what theyre pointing to is the drop in oil prices in 2009. Recall that we went from we fell 100 at that point. To 33. China demand on the table and did not have the supply coming out of north america the way we do now and traders saying with those off the table at this point with the demand off the table and the supply on the table, we could go lower than 33, you know, longer term. I do want to point out the similar situation that we had to 20109 that stronger dollar. If the dollar continues to strengthen, that sends us lower, too. You have the wall street firms taking a little bit of a cautious approach. Barclays is saying brent under 70 and wti significantly lower from there in the short term but then goldman saying look at wti between 70 and 75 a barrel next year and citi with the note today indicating we could have a bottom right here. The jury is out on this one and adds interest to the market and my job as an oil geek a little more interesting, as well. Well put. Thanks, jackie. See you later. Just got the hand signal of art cashin with 13 minutes left here. 300 million to buy on the close. So maybe a little lift here. Well see. Could be balanced out and down 34 points on the industrial average. The nasdaq heading lower down 62 right now. Yeah. Well go live by the way to the mass dak next for more on whens happening there. Online shoe retailer zap pos ceo is here to give us his take on black friday and cyber monday and how that popup store is doing in vegas. Stay tuned. It works how you want to work. With a Fidelity Investment professional. Or managing your investments on your own. Helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. And save on taxes where you can. So you can invest in the life that you want today. Tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. Call or come in today for a free oneonone review. Were for an opens you internet for all. Sing. Were for creating more innovation and competition. Were for Net Neutrality protection. Now, heres some news you may find even more surprising. Were comcast. The only isp legally bound by full Net Neutrality rules. Were in the last ten minutes of trading of this monday. The nasdaq lagging the major averages right now. Bertha coombs is covering the action in times square. Apple goes so goes the nasdaq today, bill. Apple at 50 above the 30day volume. As it was hitting all those alltime highs today. Selling down hard off of the lows right now. Nonetheless, its responsible for about half of the downside point impact in terms of the big caps but its not alone today. A mott of names like tesla, gopro today hit hard and you had facebook and amigen responsible for another ten points downside in the nasdaq 100 and seeing a few, a handful of stocks managed to move to the upside, though. Microsoft is a standout. Sy man tech is a standout today and express scripts and amgen hitting 52. Week highs and fallout of the small cap drag on the nasdaq with did regional banks in texas, may have loan exposure to the shale plays and also dry ships which has a unit that does a lot of rig transport so youre seeing Collateral Damage outside of the oil patch in the services for them. Back to you. All right. Thank you, bertha, very much. Joining me right now to take us to the close, Larry Mcdonald and bob pisani stopping by, as well. I guess oil is a feature. Talking retail from black friday and cyber monday. Oil is a big mover again today. Hats off to cnbc, bill dudley interview today is pretty telling and steve asked him a question i thought was important and the leverage in the oil space. And it was pretty disturbing his answer and fluffed it off. We have been doing the math over a week and find nearly globally if you look at sovereign credits and corporate credits, nearly 2 trillion of exposure to oil. You think the drop in oil could put some pressure on sovereign debt throughout . The fed with the blood on the hands and piled the fed zero Interest Rate policy for so long has goflooded the market with ch and yummy markets came in and issued paper at high prices and, you know, the feds to blame for that. Face it. You can see the drop in the transports today and kansas city southern, all of the railroads down obviously on concerns. Airlines, as well. Impact on oil. I cant help but think its a super negative from a positive for all the people in the country who are getting lower priced oil. We saw restaurants, lower end restaurants, do really well on friday, better today. Some of the lower end retailers. People are expecting their business to pick up. Theres obviously good news here. No. Great news. The markets focused on the good news and what i dont want to see is seven years after lehman and lets not forget about the leverage. Massive amounts of leverage. Big Company Company in russia and they have bonds issued and corporate space in america, 400 billion. Lets not ignore that. Absolutely. Russian debt default in 1998. We were both here for that. Was on the high price of oil. It repeats itself, history does. Doesnt just rhyme. Stick around. Were going to come back with these guys. Closing countdown and see how we do. After the bell, americans are tapping home equity again. Speaking of history repeating itself and its adding up to billions of dollars that didnt end well last time. Has anything changed this time around . 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You should probably check out credit karma, its free. Credit . Karma . Free . Credarma. Really free credit scores. I have a cold with terrible chest congestion. Better take something. Theraflu severe cold doesnt treat chest congestion. Really . New alkaseltzer plus day powder rushes relief to your worst cold symptoms plus chest congestion. Oh, what a relief it is. Here we go welcome back. A couple of minutes left. So many parts and pieces to this day. Too many highlights to get to in our time remaining. This is some of them, though. Heres the dow. Selloff on the open this morning. A tug of war as i said between the oil stocks which were moving higher and those related to black friday moving lower. Spent the day in negative territory for the industrial average. Down 38. Apple a highlight this morning or lowlight if you want to put it that way. Down 6 on the open. Huge sell on the open this morning. Sideways since then. Down 3 . So off the lows of those days. Oil and gold very much a highlight today as they come back from the lows that were set over the weekend. Oil today up 4. 9 right now. Up 4 at the end of the regular season. The electronic trading, it continued higher. 69 and change right now. And then gold today, back above 1,200 after the swiss results yesterday showed that they didnt want their Central Bank Buying gold but be that as it may price of gold up 3. 2 or 37. You like gold . You know, i think its been massively oversold. Its a year end. Lieic the trades in the new year because theres been tax loss selling and then a First Quarter relief rally. But thats a yes. Its not a longterm goal of yours . Its a secular bear market. You will have beautiful rallies in a bear market and still got to go into a lows. Low inflation environment for a long time and not friendly for gold. As long as the dollar goes higher, tough do that. Apple trade . We saw a huge series of trades in apple. About 6 1 2 million shares traded and and thats odd. Apple normally is 50 million a day. Somebody wanted to sell a lot of apple really fast and made for sense to sell it over two hours rather than two minutes. Maybe it was just a dumb trader. But it definitely dropped the price and other stocks around it also seemed to drop it. Twitter and linkedin, as well. Thank you, guys. Minus signs for the major averages and equity market. Transports especially down sharply. Stay tuned now for hour number two of the closing bell with kelly evans and company. See you tomorrow. Thank you. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. First trading day for december. Question is whether its a deviation, a change from the recent trading patterns or starting a new one here. The Dow Jones Industrial average off the decline of almost 50. S p off 14. Nasdaq keeping an eye on down 64 points. 1. 3 . Small cap russell 2000 down more than 1. 5 . It was a we bound day for oil for gold, as well. Lets talk about it right now with the panel. Joining me is rebecca patterson, dan greenhouse, and our very own Sharon Epperson and we are fast money trader extraordinaire guy adami. Dan, starting with you on todays trading activity. A bit unusual. I dont know how to describe it. Oil and gold rallying. Twitter and amazon and apple looking ugly, frankly. Are we reading too much into one days action here . Any time you read anything into one days action its too much. Two points, first with energy, i thought it was particularlie ll interesting to see it trading poorly and screams poorly . Not chevron and exxon. The rest of the space not trading as well as the commodity was trading. Certainly the thing of energy in general is that its the most concentrated sector in the s p 500. 50 4 names and then the others. That said, the space traded somewhat poorly in relation to the strong day in oil and would say at the s p going out at 2353, down, if we close at this level down thats not very much but these days trading up or down by. 6 is fairly volatile day and quite sometime. They happen infrequently. You have to be impressed with how well the Broader Market held up given the price of oil dropped 40 in just a couple of months time. Yeah. Well, for the u. S. Market specifically and you guys have done a great job on cnbc educating people about this, this is really good news for the u. S. Consumer which at the end of the day is 70 of the economy so as long as this is supply driven more than demand driven, right, not global demanding falling out of bed a little bit of that but largely supply out of thest and the middle east. Every one dollar fall in the price of gasoline, 74 billion into u. S. Consumers pockets. This is a huge tax break in time for Holiday Shopping. Sharon, thinking of the point you make to people. If you dont think youre affected by a story, you are if youre in with the retirement. Energy is a huge one. How concerned should people be . They should be very concerned. The big integrated are in a lot of big funds that you own in your Retirement Plan so people need to be very interested in opec. They may not think it matters but it matter and the shale play here in the u. S. It matters to all of us. A quick point before guy, this is really important. He is like a coiled spring. If you and the 401 k in a broad stock you are insulated from what happened. You made an important point before. The Energy Sector down roughly speaking 20 from the high. Over that same time frame the s p 500 is higher by about 5 or 7 . I dont know exactly. This is why a lot of people until s p 500 is a better course than individual sectors or stocks. Absolutely. Always. You take issue with that, mr. Adami . Hello there hey. You hit it on the head. I thought the fact that exxon was green all day despite what was going on in the oil services was interesting. I think you made that point earlier. I think whats happening is people finally pulling the ripcord and names of rig and those getting obliterated. They want to be in the energy space and going to names they think are resilient to the move and why exxon had the day it had. You mentioned the russell down a percent and a half and said to you for a while it needed to recapture 121 and doesnt appear like that will happen and the reversal in gold today i thought was interesting. You brought up sbisz vote. I dont think they clearly would buy it tomorrow and wasnt going to necessarily move the price. But the fact that it rallied in the wake of that vote to me is something to batch, as well. Guy, do you agree and then the ground view and then is this the blood in the street moment for oil or a pause in what could be a significant further leg down . In other words, for the people who arent willing and able to play in these shortterm moves, is this the time to be involved in some of the beaten down energy names over steering clear . You still got things written against them. You know, people have taken for granted that oil stays high inperpetuity and they have been written against that and not come home to roost yet. Maybe for a couple of days but i dont think the bottom is in. Great point. Supply thing, i think its a supply thing. Excuse me. Rebecca thinks its a supply issue. I think its a demand issue. We come down on either side of that coin and if it is a demand issue and i think that it is, i think that has far reaching effects for what is supposed to be a glowing global economy. I dont think we have this. Right. Goldman today is asking if copper is the other shoe to drop. You can make the Oil Supply Demand or supply argument all day and theres something more going on here potentially. Lets get a sense on the ground of whats happening with the oil story here in this country as mentioned rebound today in prices. But we had a pretty difficult session over the weekend. 40 prs off t 40 off the highs. Were joined by Brian Sullivan in the bakken of north dakota and ceo of brightling energy. Brian, you are out there. What are people in the industry saying . Supply or demand issue . Its a both issue. You guys are both right in the commentary. Right . Listen. Heres the thing. Theres an equilibrium. So were producing 1. 1 Million Barrels a day in the region up from 1,500 barrels a day 10 years ago. Say the price is coming down and driving down the amount of oil thats supplied. And then the Lower Oil Price that youre talking about helped lift the u. S. Economy maybe more people go back to work, so that increases demand so the hope here is that both of those things create an equilibrium so that maybe puts a floor under the price of oil because here in the bakken, we have heard the numbers, guys. 68 to 72 seems from all the research ive done over the last couple of days and weeks seems to be about the breakeven point on average some are lower or higher but a good reference point. Does that jive with you, chris, and what youre seeing and hearing . Yeah. I think smaller independents are concerned that theyre going to be able to weather the storm if the floor in oil prices are not here. And prices go down to 60. Some of the more expensive areas where brian is at is troublesome. Guys bought in late. Paying big prices for acre and. They might be okay getting in emergency roomier. We are drilling and lift oil out 40, 45, 50. We can weather the storm and folks are concerned we havent seen the bottom yet but i think it comes down. Well rebound and over 2015 probably about a 75 commodity we hope and not going to see further decline. I was going to say pushing the button. Do you think or hope . Sharon . Brian, this is sharon. I wanted to find out what youre hearing from people who moved there for all the jobs that have opened up over last several years, not just in the Oil Companies, but all of the other companies that have benefited and Service Industry that is have benefited from what were seeing in these shale plays. How are they impacted by the big pri drop in the price of crude . Thats a great question. We had a din tore talk about that. None of them are worried. Not yet. Theyre saying all of our contracts are in. One guy ran an i. T. Company or a coffee company. Theyre all booming. I was here last year. They all say theyre up from where they were last year. I think my concern and probably the panel can talk to this, as well, is that the trickle down effect is very slow at first. But just think about this. You got the rig at the top. And then you pay the drillers and then you pay the Service Companies who pay the truckers, pipeline companies, rail operators who then maybe dont need as much housing so that hurt it is real estate developers. Dont forget the banks and Oil Companies are very levered. They got a lot of debt on the books and another big threat that not enough people are talking about. For sure. Rebecca, we are seeing some of the regional banks sell off because of that. Yeah. And credit space. Looking at equities versus high yield specific today we have seen credit lag equities and i think part of that is very energy focused today on some of the oil related levered names. Theres debate on, you know, is it capital intensive or labor intensive, the Energy Sector. And when we look at the country overall and just specifically energy, not the trickle down, its 0. 2 of the total nonfarm payrolls. 0. 2 . So this is not material. Chris, a last word before we let everybody go here . I think it is obvious now to realize america is the swing producer, literally, on thanksgiving day. Saudi said, look, you guys came last to the party. Producing expensive oil. You can cut back. Its a game of chicken for a year. How long can we play . Brent to 60, they push the button and have a meeting and drive supply down but i dont think it will get that far. I really do think like brian said this doesnt happen overnight. The party will continue. Chris, thank you for being here. Guys . Brian . I was going to say, quickly, watch canada. Their cost of production is higher and they can be hurt more than us. A point, too. Thank you so much. You have a plane to catch. Appreciate you sticking around for that. Guy, see you more later. Later, later. At 5 00 p. M. And theyll talking about reasons behind apples huge slide today. Dont miss it. Now we have a deal and the semiconductor space. Dom chu, what is going on . What is going on is buying spanion in an allstock transaction. The transaction will involve the shareholders paying 2. 457 of their own shares for every one share of stock and its an allstock transaction. Valued at around 1. 6 billion. The two companies together will have approximately 50 50 ownership for spansion shareholders and cyprex sharehold shareholders. Ray bingham of spansion is nonexecutive chairman of the combined firm. They will both receive four seats on the board apiece. Again, a merger of e values and cyprex is acquirer of record. All cash transaction, kelly. For right now, spansion shares up by about 10 . They call it a merger. Reaction tells the story. Thank you. We all know black friday sales war disappointment this year. Hows cyber monday shaping up . Up next, speaking to the ceo of zappos about the cyber sales and just opened the companys First Physical popup stores. Invest or thes pouring money in etfs. But if you think thats a bullish sign, think again. Jeff cox here to explain why it could be bad news for the market and for your money. Pass pass my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac look here, daddy, im never coming back discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection cts for around 439 a month. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise. Welcome back. Online retailer zappos giving brick and mortar a shot for the holidays launching the first Free Standing popup store in las vegas with shop with me. The 20,000 square foot structure is a shoe room, Virtual Reality room and open 24 7 until the end of the year. With me now is zappos ceo and jonathan jenkins. Tony, this is 124 7. Is this a store or showroom. A little bit of both. We have 16 different rooms. This is one of the rooms behind us. And actually people know zappos for shoes and most of the stores actually allocated for clothing. Part of the reason for doing it is to get out the message that we sell a ton of clothing and thats one of our Fastest Growing areas in the company. And jonathan, you guys power this whole thing. Is this a glimpse of how, for example, Amazon Stores might look in the future . Sure. Its very interesting landscape. Brick and mortars are bringing in technology and online brands are going brick and mortar. Tony, explain why you want to go brick and mortar and then back to the question a store or showroom because what happens is people walk in and almost have a Virtual Reality experience and then order stuff still through their mobile devices or basically order from the vibt thats online . Theyre not walking out with a product, are they . Well, theres a combination of things so they can order from their mobile device or these different kiosks to order from. We have always really been into focusing on customer emotion and as much as Technology Developed and nothing replaces the experience of getting being able to touch an item and something to do here and see what it looks like matching with other different items. How much are you seeing a shift, tony, in the conversations youre having, for example, youre owned by amazon and opening a store on 34th. Everyones trying to look at the physical store right look like. Is this an idea of what were talking about . Do you know anything about how that store will look for the holidays here . Well, zappos is actually run independently from amazon and so we have a different culture, different way of doing business and so we dont actually know too much about amazon. What we are doing i think is probably unique to zappos and were pretty excited about it in downtown vegas. Yeah. Speaking of downtown vegas, whens going on there . The project sounds as if its almost fallen apart. Youve stepped away from the active role as we know and reported in the last couple of months. This downtown las vegas project, tony, where does it stand . So there were a lot of media reports that were incorrect, including what you just stated but theres actually a new grand opening of something every single week. This popup store is a great example of that and we have another bookstore opening up next week and so i think its a lot of incorrect headlines. Are you still running the project . Im still overseeing the project. Just not involved in the daytoday. I havent been involved because its actually several hundred different legal entity that is are involved in different businesses. And so its still going strong then. Any indication there have been, you know, problems with regard to the store openings . Getting interest, return on capital. People feeling as though theres a reason theyre there in part of the community and as far as youre concerned its full steam ahead . Yeah. Were all about supporting different entrepreneurs and order with me is a great example of Technology Company that relocated from beijing to here and growing rapidly and this is a launch for them. And jonathan, as youre with that company, just tell us, wheres the demand coming from . How quickly are you growing and whens next for you guys . Yeah. We are growing really quickly. We came over five to ten people from china and now 40 people here and working on the future of retail. We are here at the zappos popup shop. You can skanl it at a kiosk and buy any size any color and excited to be downtown vegas and working with zap ps. All right. Jonathan and tony, tony, by the way, how are sales . How long have you been open . Whats the consumer response been like . So online weve been open 24 7 since, what . A couple of weeks we soft opened and its been a great consumer response and also an Outdoor Community area thats brought together people of the community and pretty excited. Good stuff. Thank you for being with us both of you. Tony, jonathan, from downtown las vegas. Really appreciate it. Were going to swing over to the breaking news desk. Some news on bill cosby with tyler mathson. Hes resigned from the board of trustees of hissalma mater of Temple University in philadelphia. He was one of Temple Universitys biggest boost earls wearing temple tshirts and sweatshirts but since hes been embroiled in these allegations of Sexual Misconduct and rape, mr. Cosby decided its in the best interest of the university he step down from his post on the board of trustees. Kelly, back to you. All right. Thank you. Coming up, Identity Theft is a huge fear for many americans, especially in the Holiday Shopping season. You may be using a credit card online a lot. How can you protect your information . Ceo of lifelock is here next. Americaning tapping into the home equity for cash again in a big way. Thats coming up. Robot butler, can you shut the shades . Oh and could you turn on air conditioning im starting to sweat. Ill just do it myself. Useless. Thats nice. Sets the mood. Have your entire house within reach, even when your devices arent. Introducing relay by wink its like a robot butler, but not as awkward. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Welcome back. Dom . Kelly, we are watching shares of Mattress Firm an moving lower. It was higher. In the after hours, the company matched Third Quarter earnings estimates with sales above expectations. Comparable store sales for the quarter above wall street expectations. As a result the Company Raised the fullyear revenue forecast and shares down by half a percent in a very, very light after market trade and Thor Industries missing on First Quarter earnings and shares up well call it by about down by 2. 3 and big name in the name of rvs. Back over to you. Thank you for now. Black friday didnt live up to the hype this year. What about cyber monday . Josh lipton looking at retailers and bracing for what they hope is an online surge in traffic. Are they seeing it . You know, kelly, in the holidays retailers are tracked a lot of shoppers to their online sites with bargains. Now the challenge is to make sure those sites actually work. Best buy found out the very hard way what happens when you get a surge in online traffic. The companys website went dark after dealing with overwhelming traffic. Best buy wasnt alone, though. According to catch point systems, a company that monitors website performance, neimanmarcus down for two hours on saturday night and j. Crew suffered slower than normal load times. Catch point analyzed 50 ecommerce sites over the weekend to find out which ones performed the best. And one measure of performance is how fast the home pages of such sites load for users. Specifically to the time it takes for the elements on a web page to load and the winners according to catch point, h m, costco, apple and barnes noble. Among the slowest, walmart and staples. They spend months getting ready for black friday. The i. T. Departments test the servers, simulate big spikes in traffic and even contract with cloud providers such as amazon and ibm to help them manage the waves of users logging on to their sites. The holidays, of course, are just kicking off and a question of how well theyre prepared to meet the demand created with the deals and bargains on their websites. Kelly, back to you. All right. Josh, thank you. For now. And not to mention as people go online to buy gifts, how vulnerable are shoppers to hacking . Joining me now is todd davis, ceo of lifelock with the panel. Great to have you. Welcome. Thank you, kelly. Are you seeing a spike in traffic or clients as people respond to shopping more online . Well, certainly, we see this on a seasonal basis. Right . As we protect people, this is a time of year people going out, taking advantage of saving 20 on the offers, new credit card offers, open today. So we see a lot of activity. Were sending alerts to the customers so they have a chance not them to say, hey, no, that is not me, stop. Or just continue your Holiday Shopping. You know, were obviously seeing an uptick in the way that companies are targeted and a report in reuters with the detail of fireeye with hacking and Financial Services arena. When about, though, individuals . Are you seeing an increase in individual accounts being hacked or is it just that we have had a series of high profile breaches back to target and home depot . No. We are seeing similar indications that theyre going after the consumer. This calendar year alone, we have already seen almost 50 of the u. S. Adult population had the data breached some way. Someone lost and cant account for it. A third of those turning into some form of Identity Theft. These are kalg clated, focused efforts with malicious intents to turn peoples personal information into money. You use lifelock, anybody . Im familiar and a fan and unfortunately i have had need for it. And, todd, i would ask you, wheres your Customer Base going . Is it skewing older folks who have more wealth to protect or younger people who are doing more Online Shopping or just kind of even . Well, we are seeing it in both. For the older folks who have assets and financials, we have new services that actually help protect not just your credit card, debit card accounts, but your checking, savings, retirement, investment accounts. Things people dont think of when they think of Identity Theft and then of course we have relaunched the mobile app, as well, part of the folks you were talking about in the Holiday Season moving to Online Transactions and here on cyber monday. We see people taking advantage of shopping online. And, in fact, we have seen them making the trade. If you can believe this. 32 of the people who were a victim of a data breach this year said theyll do more Online Shopping this year than before. Theyre willing to make that trade. Are they learning from the lessons and getting themselves protected from Identity Theft . Im wondering not only the age demographic but whens the Socio Economic demographic of your customer and how many folks able to pay 10 to 30 per month for this type of service when an organization, Nonprofit Organization like the National Foundation for credit counseling, will give you free monitor service . How do you encourage people to do this who may say, i dont have 10 a month to spare to make sure that my identity is protected . Well, really, what we are seeing is our demographic is typically to doesed on Household Incomes of 50,000 a year or more and consumers really see that more of a security spend than discretionary spend and understand the difference of the free credit monitoring a credit score that tells you after the fact. In fact, some cases weeks after. Hey, something changed. You should look at it. See if it was you versus a Proactive Service thats much more comprehensive so people see us as a security spend. And then 9. 99 a month doesnt seem like a crazy number and, in fact, over 40 of our gross new enrollments signing up to the Premium Services and priced anywhere from the 25, 20 and 29. 99 a month. Todd, is that because it can cost hundreds if not thousands of dollars to then repair your identity and to make sure that all of the companies and basically get your identity back intact and costs you a lot more money . Well, not only going to cost you a lot of money but time. A lot of people dont know how do i go about rebuilding my identity . What makes this different from any other crime is once i get your name, birth date and Social Security number, not only hit you now during cyber monday while theres activity and then put your information on the shelf and ill just wait. Maybe a year, maybe two years. Once you get everything cleaned up, ill hit you again. It is your job to scare us, todd, and its working. Todd davis, ceo of lifelock, thank you for being here this afternoon. Thanks so much. Appreciate. Stocks kicking off december in the red. S p up 11 this year. How are average investors setting themselves up for 2015 . The roundtable is next. Remember in the runup to the housing collapse and people took out loans for the vacations and luxury cars . Well, theyre doing it again. Americans are using the homes anyway like atms and may be surprised the find out why and how that money is spent this time around when we come back. Well, investors pouring money into u. S. Stocks recently. That could be a bearish sign for the market according to our jeff cox whos here to explain why. Jeff . Hey, kelly. Thats right. We know that too much of even a good thing can be dangerous. The stock market, of course, no exception to that rule. One note of caution this week from investor behavior of trim tabs, reporting that investors poured 7. 6 billion into tockbased etfs last week alone and nearly 43 billion over the last month. Why is that significant . Its as big of an inflow as we have seen since this time in 2007 which we know was right before the market came crashing down. Of course, circumstances are different now than they were then and theres a worry that the exuberance is signaling a near term top in the market. The historys shown when investors are over confident it is trouble ahead. This is important, of course, because theres hope that the market can end the year with a bang. Trim tab ceo says the flow indicators are quote less favorable for the weeks ahead. Back the you. Well watch it, jeff. Thank you. The first day of december. So a good time as well to check the pulse of investors on main street and their take. With us is carlie kirk a student at Kings College of new york city and ray barr retired teacher of st. Louis. Charlie, what are you doing with your money . Yeah, you know, im looking at the market and i think it is the price of oil falling and i look at this as almost like a tax break for young people and students out there that are trying to find extra income and if we are seeing the price of oil fall, thats more money essentially in the pockets so im looking at stocks right now and the technology sector. I think theres companies trying to be the apple alternative and i think its interesting to see how young people react. Ray, what about you and your demographic . I feel pretty much the same way. You have to be careful what you get into. I look at the company than specific industry or sector. But i also agree that the market is really high priced today. I think it will continue for a while longer. Absolutely truthful about the fact that i do think there are a lot of young people coming in that probably should be into more index funds than they should be on individual stocks. You bring up an interesting point, ray, the difference between the old school kind of Balance Sheet analysis almost way of bottoms up way of getting into the market versus top down. What is your recommendation . During your lifetime of investing, what worked best for you and why . I think the most important thing i did was enjoyed a i joined an Organization Called better investing group, national organization, that kind of helped me understand the fundamentals of a company. Actually, analyzing sales, price and earnings so that i become successful. Keeping in mind that there are many good stocks throughout and you have to be very, very selective and buy low and sell high. And i think we have learned that through august about 45 years of investing. That will do it. Ray, do you work only with the Investment Club or a financial adviser, as well . How have you managed your money over this time . Oh no, no. I manage my own money and were involved in Investment Club. I prefer to go ahead and learn and understand the market itself rather than paying somebody a certain percent to manage your money on an idea that money goes towards paying him services. Yep. Dan, what do you think about that hp pick here from charlie . I wont comment on the specific stock. Everybody wanting to be an apple alternative. Ray to a question and then charlie also. Ray, you mentioned how younger people should be in etfs and the implication is older people should not be. Im curious. No. Should be more exposed and then charlie jump in here on how they fall into your investment analysis. I do think that younger people have a tendency to be working and actually concerning most of their time and effort into working. And they dont have the experience in the market. It took us many, many years to understand the market in this truth of my lifetime, i have seen six recessions and seven upswings and they have to understand that. I think that toy was a bad experience for a lot of young people and will happen again if theyre not careful. Stay in an index. People registered investment advisers, 20 of them a year do well. The other 80 do not. Thats a fact. Right. So why spend that money on that . Do your own homework. Or buy an index fund. Doesnt cost you like. 1 . Thats nothing. Do it that way and dont have to be involved in the market. Charlie, how do you feel about that . Yeah, no. I agree with ray and i think young people are distrustful of markets and more people between 20 and 30 need to get involved in investing and failing, too. I think that its a great way for young people to accumulate wealth and understand the economy and ill agree not enough young people are investing and participating actively picking stocks to see how they do and important for an economy to function with people putting money in starting to really realize what works and ive failed and succeeded and i think its important to be part of that active process and then learn and become a better investor over time. Charlie, out of curiosity, what other names are you in right now aside from hewlettpackard . One stock right now is something not a lot of people are hot on and something to make a return i think twitter is really going to be a hot stock to pick over six months and been criticized by a lot of different people and if you look at people who use twitter and the loyalty of people that use it and the frequency people go after and the how often they use it, if they learn to capitalize on the loyalty of their usership like facebook has, they could really see an increase in revenues in six years and especially starting to expand more internationally. Ray, before we go, your top picks here . My top picks would be agrum out of canada, deals with fertilizers, wholesale and retail and then you have what they call glacier bank corp. Out of wyoming area. Kind of a regional bank. Then you have Something Like ill throw this out there. That is i personally like afc, hfc. Refinery and i like upl, one of the lowest producers of natural gas. I see the future. Has it hit the bottom . I dont know that. Its good to buy near the bottom. And thats great fodder for the gblock. Well leave it there with a big thanks to you both. Ray and charlie, getting the retail of the pulse. South of the border, it could mean bleak times. Oil and gas capp eklt accounts of venezuelas gdp. Up next, well see if it cracked the hot list. And more and more americans using the equity in their homes again as an atm. But what theyre using it for may surprise you. That story straight ahead. You total your brand new car. Nobodys hurt,but there will still be pain. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do, drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had a Liberty Mutual new car replacement, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. New car replacement is just one of the features that come standard with a base Liberty Mutual policy. 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Lot of people speak lating that the government there has to impose taxes that will cause civil unrest and hence you got the looting. Now the number two, big question of the day, what is going on with apple stock . Dipped almost 6 at the beginning. Came back a little bit. Everybodys wondering, we gathered the comments so all the theories are there. Retailer depression. Cashing in. Its all there. People are loving that one. Finally, three, put it up a little while ago. Its a look at north korea and the cyber attack capables after the sony thing and movies leaked everybodys looking at north korea going, could it be you . North korea isnt that much of a mover and shaker. People saying, no, they have a very good cyber attack apparatus so people are liking that story, too, kelly. Vuler inabilities are still there. Less money than a military program. They train kids from a young age. They pick them out to be Cyber Warriors. They have a 3,000 pack of Cyber Warriors over there apparently. According to the experts. Allen, well read about it. Cnbc. Com. Thank you so much, sir. Used to be vacations and boats and cars but whether the financial crisis hit, people using that home equity line for luxury purchases came to an ugly end but now what theyre using it for is very different. That story when we come back. Enthusiast. Mmm, a perfect 177degrees. And thats why this road warrior rents from national. I can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. And i dont have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. And i dont. And national lets me choose any car in the aisle. Control. Its so, whats the word . Sexy. Go national. Go like a pro. Home equity lines of credit are on the rise again. Should we be worried because it didnt end well the last time around. Diana olick more on this trend. Diana . Kelly, mortgage originations took a nice jump in q3 across all categories. A lot of that was refinancing to lower rate. But as you said, the biggest gain was in the home equity line of credit line of products. Usually second mortgages, they jumped over 17 for the quarter. Thats according to inside mortgage finance. Thats 20 billion in new helocs, which is the best reading of the year. If we keep going at this rate, production for the year could top 67 billion, which would be the best since 2009. But before we get all worried, volume is historically low and the best year since 2009 isnt exactly saying very much. But the game is still worth watching. So, what are we using the money for . Thats the most interesting part. Now, a survey of borrowers by td bank found more than half of borrowers got the loans for home renovations. High on the list was debt consolidation, automobile purchases, emergencies and education. And another one interesting, refinancing old helocs resetting. They have a 5 to 10 year window after which you have to start paying principal. All those are starting to reset now. Mary poppins, thatll do it. Actually, stay with us, diana. I want to get the panels reaction to this right now. Do you what do you make of this . Positive, negative . Positive, actually. The fact that we have 30year mortgages below 4 , fixed mortgages for a couple of months in a row now. Were seeing refinancing also helping consumers. And what theyre spending it on, thats one survey. To the degree of reflective of anything broader, it sounds like more thoughtful spending, you know, debt consolidation, emergencies education. That sounds like a healthier place. I think the really interesting part that diana points out in the story she wrote for cnbc. Com is 167 billion is going to reset between 2014 and 2017. Thats a lot of heloc and a lot of people out there saying, hey, im going to sign up for another five, ten years, this is why im going to do this. It may not be getting a new car, it may be i still have this mortgage and i cant cover all of it. Student loans. Is this prudent, dan . And whats interesting about that, sharon is that when we were looking earlier this year, there was a lot of concern you were going to start to see default on these or red flags coming out, government regulators concerned about it. But the number has come down in the helocs resetting because people are doing this refinancing. Theyre being smart about their home equity lines now because theyve learned the lesson. Let me also add really quick. We spent many quarters in a row deleveraging. Not that diana did this, but these stories are often toned with the implication that all debt accumulation is bad. And thats not necessarily the case. We spent many years paying down our debt, defaulting on our debt. The last few quarters, consumers are more comfortable. Not just on credit card loans, but helocs and home loans more generally. To the extent this is done reasonably whatever we define that as, its not as bad as some people might think. Just a quick question, home equity lines of credit, are they fixed rates or floating . I rent, i cant say. Floating. Floating. They can change. They can reset. Thats the whole point. Of when that period is up, the rate will change. Weve got to go, but my question is simply, if people are doing this, is the risk that potentially the fed funds rate or libor moves up on them . Granted, that probability seems pretty small right now. But is that the main concern here . They could become more unaffordable . Well, i think they could move up a little bit, but youre at historically low rates right now. Youre doing well on a heloc compared to five or ten years ago. Yeah, sure. Great point. Thank you. And stay dry out there. Appreciate it. Diana olick for us on that trend. Up next, going to recap the first day of trading for the last day of the month of the year. What people are buying on this cyber monday, if anything, as well. And tomorrow, tune into closing bell when ill talk to oculus ceo brendan. Ice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare Insurance Company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Ive been with my doctor for 12 years. Now i know ill be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. So dont wait. 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Where is the s p 500 going to end the year . Slightly higher, but as we were talking about in the break, theres a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Finally after years, the fed seems poised to raise rates. This tends not to be greeted well by stock markets, at least initially. And so you have among the strategist community, a bifurcated view. They go to 2, 200. Right. Listen, again, if the feds going to raise rates once next year, we havent raised rates since 2006. From a stock market perspective, that doesnt mean the rallys over. It does, however, introduce a level of volatility that hasnt been there in 2 1 2 if not longer years. Isnt that somewhat healthy for investors to realize its not going to go straight up. Sure. You have to experience some volatility. Comes in context. And i agree with everything youre saying. Comes in the context of a bull market since october 3rd, 2011 that has been for lack of a better word, relentless. Hasnt been uninterrupted, but it has been relentless. Whats your view . 25, 50basis point increase over the course of the next 12 months maybe. Is that going to stop the recovery . Youve got to rebuild. Look, last time around, we started to raise rates. By the way, the long end didnt go up, equities went up. The complete opposite effect of what they were expecting. The most important point for viewers. Forget whether you read the speech, or not, the most important point as true today as its been for the last four years, and that is that these guys, the federal reserve, are scared to death of raising ra s rates, causing an economic calamity or a hiccup that forces them to come back down. So the bias has been and will always be, doing less. Slightly hot. Thats what he says they might do. Wishful thinking, perhaps, we have to leave it there, everybody. Thank you so much for being here. To kick off the month, very much appreciate it. Fast money coming up in a few with melissa lee and the gang. Whats on tap . Hey there, kelly, everybodys looking into predictions for 2015. So weve got the sector and the one stock poised to break out on a technical basis for 2015. The sector and the stock. And the stock. All right. Youve got nine more guesses. At least. Tech, health care, utility can utilities have a breakout . Ill stop guessing. Over to you guys. Thanks a lot. Fast money starts right now. Live in new york citys time square, im melissa lee. Steve grasso, dan nathan, and guy adami. An excuse to sell. While most are focusing on the route in oil and Retail Stocks today, theres major selling going on across a variety of sectors. Twitter, gopro, tesla taking a hit today. Any buying opportunities in some of these hard hit names . Price action in todays session, very interesting. Twitter was 6. 5 . Given the move, the downside already. Yeah, you name a couple of names. Ill name one i think is an opportunity, and thats facebook. A big rally late last week. Gave up the ghost a little bit