Is what im talking about. Its been a bad february and this is the first trading day of the month already here kelly, so its not getting off to a great start with the dow down almost 2 following a 2 slide in the nikkei overnight. And, bill just so people can get some context around what were seeing this looks like the worst start to a month in terms of percentage losses for the dow, for the s p since 1982 and for the nasdaq potentially ever at least going back to 1972 as our data does. Lets talk about this. I mean its clear that this market is struggling in 2014. What does it mean for you as an investor . With us today, gina sanchez from chantico global. Michael gued anthony chan from chase. And our own Rick Santelli. Michael, we have been talking for months about the need for a 10 correction in this market that did so well in 2013. It would appear its under way. It certainly would appear, and i think its actually perfect opportunity for investors to reposition portfolios. Going into this, bill our position has been, yeah youre invested but youre in the conservative names the names that really dont lose as much now beta is getting killed a lot of leaders getting killed. This is an opportunity to reposition and not to panic, bill. People are going to want to panic about this. Every 10 down is not a time to panic. Its not 2008. Its an opportunity to repo reposition reposition. Anthony, i want to ask you whether this is an event driven by liquidity or an event driven by deteriorating fundamentals like the ism report in the u. S. That dropped five points over the month which is a pretty big drop and an extremely unusual one. What were seeing is still the economy is expanding. You even see that in china and i agree with michael that if you look at the declines in the equity market, you got to take it with a grain of salt. If you look at all the january declines going back to 1927 we have about 31 of them. And about 14 times in the other 11 months the market has dropped the s p has dropped about 13. 4 and the other 17 times it has risen by 14. 4 on average. So on average the market is actually up almost 1. 9 in those other 11 months since when the market is down in january. No need to panic. Dont you think these numbers really default, were such a manufactured economy right now with the Federal Reserve a lot of these past statistics kind of dont mean as much anymore, right . If i take you at your word that means im a little more bullish now because now we actually have more support than we had before. So my cautious optimism should be greater optimism. Michael ill let you go in. I feel left out today. I know bill you need to get over here. Its crazy outside. Ill get my dogs and my sled tomorrow and make it down there. Michael, you maintain this is the kind everof selloff the fed wants to see. Yes, the fed wants to get out of qe. Here we are after i dont know how many billions per month have been pumped in. Ism is weak payroll data is weak. Old risk off behavior started on that weak payroll report. The crisis is reflation. Now, you talk about panic. If the market is starting to realize there are no inflation expectations, that qe did not force replationflation into the system how can we not be concerned we could see a round trip in equities. A lot of people are blaming this on the weather. Excuse me, weather today has nothing to do with Treasury Bonds 30 years out. This all started two weeks after the start of january. Deflation started beating. Lets just be very clear here. If everyone is talking about a crisis in emerging markets, the crisis either already happened or is not going to. The thing to focus on is u. S. Small caps which are more high beta and and im going to take that a step further. If you see rates, for example, potentially on the horizon rising in the u. S. You will have to see them rising ine m. The question is does that make em growth stumble and does that make Global Growth stumble . Thats the big question thats making the markets really nervous right now. I agree that probably it doesnt stumble. I think that most ems have the capacity it takes to deal with all of these issues in terms of defending currency, et cetera et cetera. Theyre in a much different position than they were ten years ago. So im not expecting a crisis and i think this is potentially a buying opportunity. Rick santelli, what a way to greet janet yellen at the Federal Reserve today. Well you know think back. Traders talk about this a lot. Alan greenspan comes on board for mr. Volcker, boom you have the 87 crash. Mr. Bernanke takes the reins from mr. Greenspan, youre at the epicenter of subprime to develop about 15 months later. It seems even though there hasnt been a lot of fed chairmen, they always seem to come into office and the market gives them an unusual greeting. I like looking at the tenyear. Its down in yield sharply today but i also note you make all the excuses about weather you want i think the ism and the real data in addition to all the other global pieces moving means its a multifront issue with regard to the marketplace. And, and if you look at 2s to 10s on the yield curve, it continues to flatten. It tells me whatever is making all these pieces move the way they are, they may continue to do so, especially because of the next chart which is dollar yen intraday. A big swoon on the dollar and, of course were hovering at the same benchmark as the tenyear note. Lowest since october 31st so i guess its happy halloween. And that lower dollar has pushed the gold price higher today as well. Rick, what do you think about michaels contention that this is the kind of selloff the fed would welcome right now because, you know, there was talk last year as the markets continued to power higher that maybe there was a bubble being created in risk assets and if that was the case the air is definitely coming out of that bubble right now. Do you agree . Well if that really is true and i would never speak for the fed, it seems a little strange to me that they put all the ammunition to make risk assets go up especially the stock market, only to what . To get happy now. Theyre not in the business at least past chairmens of busting bubbles. I think this is an issue for the fed, but i think that its an unintended consequence theyre going to have to address sooner rather than later, and i still dont expect it will in any way affect the time line they have to remove quantitative easing. And very quickly to add to that the fed wants this risk off period so the market replaces them in the treasury landscape. Thats why yields are falling. Thats why they continue their tapering. The only way to do it is if the market replaces the Federal Reserve. Weve been here before. Weve been here twice before at the end of the first round of quantitative easing and then the second. This was the catalyst for them to get back involved. Were forgetting were just talking about taper here. Were talking about everything going away. Everything is not going away. Remember it isnt just the u. S. Central bank. Its a lot of Central Banks. Whats that rick . Theres a lot of Central Banks involved. You know when we were looking at the first qe or exactly. Look at japan. We now have japan going wild and ecb most likely going to add in. I think this is a bigger issue. I think the markets are seeing past that you cant fix everything through artificial means and the economies must the great last bubble. Stand on their own. Were talking about the why, but but, gina sanchez, there are people going what do i do about this . Is this the time to step in . Is this the correction weve all been waiting for to get back into the market or do you think theres more to come . There is certainly a lot of risk that theres more to come. The risk is to the downside there. If theres any change in the pace of tapering right now, they would boetth be seen as bad. A quickening would be seen as bad and a slowing would be seen as bad. A quickening would say theres more taken out of the market and a slowing down would mean that the market isnt Strong Enough and maybe our Global Growth concerns are bad. I think there are downside but i agree this is a time to reposition, and when the markets settle, i think you really need to get back into equities. Remember what repositioning means. It doesnt take your entire portfolio strategy and dump it into the market. If you have cash you start buying selectively. You have high beta assets you take that profit. Should have taken the profit three or four weeks ago. Take that profit would have should have have could have. Of course. What gives you the confidence, for example, that the rest of the year isnt going to play out the first five weeks did . What happens if that period continues we dont want to go back to 2013. In terms of equity performance, the yen is weakening. 2013 is not going to happen again, but there is still too much liquidity in the system. Its an artificial economy. Look whats happening in japan. Look at the stock market returns in japan. All of a sudden now japan, some of the air is coming out, instead of 50 , its only up 42 . So i think were in a situation where theres enough liquidity for a long enough period of time that thats going to drive market. And my view the concern is later on when were 40 billion or 50 billion down the road of taper and then the patient really has to start behaving in a way where they have none of this stimulus. They have none of the adrenaline. Thats where the real danger is. Anthony chan the presumption has long been when the fed began the tapering process, they would do it at a time when the economy could withstand it and hold up on its own without the easy money, but lately the Economic Data has been coming in pretty soft. What do you make about that . Part of it is weather. People get very upset. I heard a comment that the tenyear or 30year has nothing to do with weather, but guess what . Even when you get a soft gdp report those rates do react. Thats just the way it is. They react minute to minute. The truth of the matter is real gdp will accelerate in 2014. Were looking at 2. 8 at the bare minimum for growth. The fum fundamentals are improving into 2014. Just in a herkyjerky fashion. Were having too much fun. Were going to stop this for a moment but ask everybody to come back because were heading toward the close with about 50 minutes left in the trading session and if youre just tuning in, were at the lows of the session right here. Were starting off the month of february with a huge bang to the downside here. Yeah bill. One of the weakest starts weve seen in many years. In fact, another major selloff on wall street putting the dow less than 4 way from true crest territory. Coming up, would a correction be so bad in 10 is a lot but a lot of people are saying long term this could be the best thing for your money. If you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, like me, and youre talking to your rheumatologist about trying or adding a biologic. This is humira, adalimumab. This is humira working to help relieve my pain. This is humira helping me through the twists and turns. This is humira helping to protect my joints from further damage. 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Lets say you pay your guy around 2 percent to manage your money. Thats not much, you think except its 2 percent every year. Go to e trade and find out how much our advice and guidance costs. Spoiler alert. Its low. Its guidance on your terms not ours. E trade. Less for us, more for you. Welcome back to the closing bell. We continue our special coverage of this pretty severe market selloff today. We got our market pros all staying with us at the New York Stock Exchange. Were joining now by Steve Liesman. You have got a nugget here on what might get investors attention. Lets remember, this is a day that janet yellen becomes chair of the Federal Reserve. You think shes paying close attention to this market . I think shes paying close attention to the market. I would suggest shes paying closer attention to the economic news. I think the disappointing iism number creates three economic reports that have disappointed. The employment number for december, the durable goods number and the ism in january. I would suggest that if the employment report disappoints again on friday that yellen at testimony next week remember she goes before congress to give the old Humphrey Hawkins testimony february 11th and 13th i think she might suggest a pause to the taper, and that would be for the following reason, that it might be in order to kind of see how much the weather may be affecting the data. I dont remember when we last talked about a polar vortex in this country. The weather could be having a profound impact on the data or there could be true economic weakness out there. The fed did this back in september. They paused to get clarification from the data and when the data in your opinion clarified they went ahead and began to taper. I think they would not lose too much credibility but steve, its almost the issue, you know this as well as anyone if janet yellen raises this, even raises, even obliquely refers to it the market will price it in immediately and then theyll be in a bind. She would do so in order to probably create such an event. I mean thats why she would do it. Rick do you think i have to say that youre right, its a little early given that the meeting, kelly, is in march. It might be a little early, but it may be an option out there worth thinking about. What do you think, rick . Lets play some pepper. Bill, do you think were going to be in a recession anytime soon . I guess not, no. Okay. Do you think were in an emergency here . Is the market melting down in a fashion that seems like its an emergency to you . Not yet, no. Okay. Well i dont know. I think that based on what i hear, its very disturbing should the fed halt the taper because what it tells me is that markets arent markets anymore. They look at a market like stocks. They dont like the way its trading, they want to alter it. I understand theyre in crisis, they have to put liquidity in but this is well beyond that. And i think it really calls into question what a Central Banks main purpose is and this discussion will not only be in different pits on this floor but the market might not be enamored with the notion. Its a sad state of affairs that the fed is day tradingq e. Thats what were discussing. I want to be clear that my remarks have less to do with the market than the da Economic Data. The market i wouldnt say the fed would do this based on the 300 point decline but its a possibility if the employment report comes out disappointing again, probably sub 100,000. Dont you think it would take more than just one or two employment reports. It would take a series over months . If all of a sudden the next employment report is back and she immediately takes the buzzer and says i cant take the pain anymore im going to flood, thats going to really impact her credibility. Wont it take a period of time you guys say that you have had situation where is thats been said of bernanke when he reversed course and it ended up being the right course to reverse at the time. People say theyll lose credibility. When the numbers out the way they come out, then it ends up being the right call. Anthony, youre the one thats got the economist on your Business Card among this group here. Youre more constructive on the economy though here, right . I am and i would prefer to see the Federal Reserve continue on its pattern of tapering but at some point when you have a new fed chairperson coming in right when they get to bat, they dont want to strike out on the first time atbat. If shes going to err, shes going to err on the side of caution, not on the side of being aggressive. So you think its possible lets not forget we have zero Interest Rate policy. We have qe but zero Interest Rate policy. We still have much going on with regard to what the feds involvement still would be in the economy without any qe whatsoever. But then thats why i would prefer for the Federal Reserve to keep going. Remember, if they just pause, thats a big difference from flooding the market. Thats just saying taking a step taking a little breath and then but gina what were you going to say . But pausing would tell the market that in fact their fears that this might be a slower thats exactly what would happen. Would be terrible. The market would take it horribly. But hold on because the fed would not be telling the market anything it doesnt already know, right . It would simply be reacting to the data that the fed sees and the data the market sees. I dont think there would be an added signal of worry there and but youre implying the fed would fight it. The tool is not working. Michael, you have to believe that once the morphine drip starts to slow down the market its are going to go through a period of thed dts, dont you think, and isnt that what were going through . Dts, yes. Its a reminder that risk Still Matters in markets. After last year i think every single Retail Investor came a little too late. The new bulls came in too late and believe that youd see a continuation of the stock rally, and this idea youd have no volatility. We live in a volatile world. Everything is interconnected and moves faster. We keep talking about qe and tapering. The issue is not qe. The issue is is it working to begin with. This was the only iteration that did not juice inflation expectations. You could blame the fed or you could just say that a broader environment has changed. We look at whats happening in so much of a vacuum thats u. S. Centric, but frankly, the rest of the world is shifting into a phase where instead of contributing to a massive commodity price boom were coming off the other side of it. Its a different landscape than last time. People are exporting deflation left and right and the fed to some extent being the biggest player in the house is responding to this global impulse. You can like it or not, but there is a broader context. If you look at the rolling average of the returns, the rolling average the returns over the last 12 months how are they doing . Theyre doing fine. Thats why this selloff were all jazzed up and talking about what horrible thing is happening. Look at the rolling 12 months. The market is still up double digits. If the economy is stumbling forward, were panicked we cant have as much free money if this year is down 15 and last year was up 30 , averages outside its up 15 , why cant the fed live with that . Weve been talking about this idea of double digit returns. Retail stock have been falling off a cliff. Where is the wealth effect . One point that hasnt been mentioned is more than 90 of the incremental amount of quantitative easing doesnt get circulated. Its stuck in the form of excess reserves. You can take two approaches. Say i give up its not working, or even throw more if you though that 10 of it is actually going up. I dont want the Federal Reserve to do that. I want them to continue along the pattern, but thats still another option. Anthony, do you want them to do that anthony, do you want them to do that in the face of weaker Economic Data . How do you thats really the question. I want the Federal Reserve to continue even if we start printing sub 100,000 employment numbers. I want the Federal Reserve to stay on that pattern, but i am also saying this janet yellen may not take that approach. Dont you think she has the intestinal fortitude to allow the markets and economy to settle down without all the easy money, steve . I do. I do and i think thats what she wants to happen and i think she may first, by the way, want to rely and see if she can get any juice out of additional Forward Guidance if its possible. But i guess my point is that she also has the intestinal fortitude to take what you said or what was said earlier this, notion she would hurt her credibility, i think she has the fortitude to do the right thing if she feels its necessary, and she might feel in the case of persistent economic weakness to stopping the taper might be the necessary response. Steve, define the right thing. What is the right thing for the fed to do its a great question. If the stock market is moving lower im not talking about the stock market. Im not talking about the stock market, rick. We could couch this anyway you want. I am going to couch it the way i want to couch it if you dont mind. The way i want to couch it is would we be having this conversation if the dow was up 300 with the same data. Thats an interesting question. Thats a great question. Thats a great question. I would say that the falling stock market does create an economic reality which is tighter financial conditions that the Federal Reserve would be concerned about. It shouldnt. The reason why we have this conversation about quantitative easing is youve hit the zero lower Interest Rate down. Youve hit the zero. You cant do anything more. Even though the economy may demand more stimulus and the question is what is the right Interest Rate for the economy . The economy demands certain reforms. Thats the whole point just trying to provide the answer here and the answer is if you hit zero and the economy provides more stimulus, you provide quantitative easing as a way of providing additional if my house is cold i can shovel all the coal into my furnace i want but its a gas furnace, wont make a difference. Thanks, guys. We have to leave it there. I dont know how thats relevant, but okay. Steve, appreciate it. Edding towards the close. If youre just joining us we have a selloff sto start the month off with the 35 minutes left in the trading session here. The dow is down about 2 but i would point out the nasdaq has been the most volatile recently. It is down 2. 6 . So technology in the aggregate getting clobbered today, kelly. Thats right, bill. You can look across a wide range of gauges. The volatility index is jumping. We have small caps in more or less official correction territory down 10 from their peaks. That vix now at 20 is at the level it achieved last october, the last time a minor bottom was put in by this market. Im just pointing it out. Not trying to predict anything here. Or we have just turned back time. The dow quickly approaching correction territory. So what is an investor to do . Buy this dip, run to the hills . Weve got an allstar team of Money Managers with advice you cannot afford to miss. Thats coming up after a short break. Opportunities arent always obvious. 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They cited it frequently in the ism report but the bad weather blues affected the autos as well. Maybe the consumer is weaker than expected and its not just the weather related event. Weve had heavy volume in big etfs today. Look at the russell and the midcap which is iwr. We have had roughly twice normal volume. Big ones in the spdr too but not as big there. A lot of people are lightening up on their exposure using etfs. Theyre going into bonds. We are getting titanic volume in etfs in the barkleys 1 to 3. Shortterm treasuries. Intermediate term treasuries, the 3 to 7, huge numbers here. 30 times normal in the ie i and even on the Corporate Bond were getting roughly twice the normal volume. So the money is going out of stocks and you can see where its going here because you can see the flow in these etfs. Put up the full screen and im calling it the great rotation in reverse. Vanguard is down 5 on the year and the total bond market bnd, corporates as well as treasuries and its up 1. 6 . You know the consensus was out of bonds and into stocks and stay away from all the bond market in general. Its interesting how the consensus is always confounded. Bill, back to you. Yes, you have to be careful with that consensus. Thanks, bob. Heading toward the close. 30 minutes left on this big selloff day. The dow down 1. 8 . And the s p is down a like amount but its the nasdaq thats really getting clobbered, down 2. 5 just today. And bill im thinking about the game last night. The super bowl game. If you want to talk about consensus, every time people think they know the outcome, it will be the narrowest game weve had and look what happened. You come into february and people think or 2014 and people think it will be more of the same and not so much. Speaking of things that have taken people by surprise. Japans stock market falling into correction territory. Will the dow soon follow . And if so is that a buying opportunity . Thats coming up next. Also could plunging stock prices and sinking bond yields force new fed chair janet yellen to abandon tapering . Something we talked about and we will talk about it some more. Its important to keep an eye on this and we will do that when we come back on the closing bell. We asked people a question, how much money do you think youll need when you retire . 500,000. Maybe halfmillion. Say a million dollars. [ dan ] then we gave each person a ribbon to show how many years that amount might last. I was trying to like pull it a little further. You know, i was trying to stretch it a little bit more. [ woman ] got me to 70 years old. Im going to have to rethink this thing. [ man ] i looked around at everybody else and i was like, are you kidding me . [ dan ] its just human nature to focus on the here and now. So its hard to imagine how much well need for a retirement that could last 30 years or more. So maybe we need to approach things differently, if we want to be ready for a longer retirement. Japans stock market the nikkei back in correction territory with last nights selloff of almost 2 . Lets just all remember though it was up 36 last year and it is now down 10 for the new year. But now look at the dow. Down more than 6 from its high. We classify a correction as being down 10 . So i guess were wondering whether were to follow here, kelly. Exactly. The question, bill is whether longterm investors should fear a correction as well or embrace it, and theres no one better to ask than gem ma godfrey and michael farr from farr miller and washington. Gem ma i want to kick off with you. Why is it whatever happens in japan, we seem to follow suit . Its been one of the best performing markets last year. If we broaden out to whats been going on in markets, obviously its been very consensus driven. Thats why investors are focusing on that market and its a very crowded trade. Investors are heavily invested in japan and in tech which is why a lot of the market selloff has also been driven by these different markets. The way were looking at it anyway is were going to be focusing on pullbacks as a buying opportunity. So, for example, in japan, wed actually be looking at small caps because the interesting thing about the japanese market is the small cap market, they are one of the only small cap markets to have underperformed large cap. Its about being more specific and smarter in the way were investing. Michael, are we to follow and have our own 10 correction and would that be a bad thing necessarily . Yes and no. Thanks so much for having me. Take care michael. Thank you, bill. Back to naples with you. You know weve been due for a 10 correction. We havent had one in over two years. Our stock market went up 32 last year. So no question were due. I think that people that panic really havent been paying attention for very long. This creates a certain opportunity for buying. Im not pollyannaish. Im always cautious, but if youre going to try to position yourself or when i see this trade thats going on now to the shortterm bond market that bob pisani was talking about earlier, i think people are saying, well if its going to fall another 5 , ill sell now and go to the sidelines. My experience says you cant do it. If youre going to stay invested for the long term do that and take advantage in terms of buying in bits and pieces when these opportunities present themselves. This could go further but i dont think its panic time at all. Well, thats to some extent what i think people need to be aware of is the lack of panic. Im seeing every single note m my inbox saying i am buying this dip, i got my Shopping List out. Im so grateful for the pull back. It means were going down 15 or 20 , doesnt it . Is it a smart money play or is it complacency . You know gemma, you were making a joke about this being a hokeypokey market. Exactly. I have always learned you invest for a particular reason and until the reason you invested changes, you continue to invest. So have the fundamentals changed that much to cause this correction here or do you just take it in stride . And also you pointed out something very interesting before the break in terms of where volatility is now but lets look at where volatility has been. At the beginning of the year volatility was a sevenyear low. This was always going to be a more challenging year. My comment in terms of it being a hokeypokey trade, its about getting into long term quality names that will provide very good buying opportunities and entry points to. Its going to be, you know its getting out of where potentially the market has run a little too far and a lot of low quality names have been kind of pushed up alongside in this type of rally and shake it all about is about getting smarter within that within sectors. Its about being more specific. Something we have seen in emerging markets something thats highlighting is you have got to be specific. You cant trade all of emerging markets exactly the same. Country by country theyre very different. And so what were seeing right now is everything moving together and over the longer term as obviously the news flow carries on and the fundamentals show through theres going to be a polarization of returns, and the likes of ukraine, turkey, et cetera low quality names in the u. S. Et cetera, all the tech stocks that arent able to deliver on their promises and they need to in terms of growth because of where valuations are now theyre going to be the ones to suffer whereas those multinational steady, stable good strong management, much stronger fiscal situation, theyre going to be the ones that will continue to do well and thats where were more confident and we see these entry points. Two of the smartest people we know and we like you, too. Thank you guys. I really agree with your point, bill. You have to figure out why youre investing and stay there for the long term. Thats great wisdom. Thank you, michael. Take care. He is a wise one, that mr. Bill griffeth. Although the bad weather seems to be following him around the country. You noticed that did you . Yeah yeah. Not appreciative of that nor the fact that take a look at markets at this juncture. It is an ugly start for the second straight month here. The dow is giving up more than 300 points at the lows of the session. One of the weakest starts for the s p and the big blue chips, bill in terms of percent since 1982. All right. Still to come maybe this horrible market can help young brands if people are eating comfort food like chicken wings and nachos and pizza. That could help companies body line. Well have them after the bell. Also going to have more on todays dramatic selloff and where markets are heading next when that final bell rings in 20 minutes. Keep it right here. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. In a world thats changing well have them after the bell. Ining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through we say lets get to work. 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For those of you at home keeping score, historically february ranks as the second worst performing month of the year for both the dow and the s p. Yeah and history appears to be on its way to repeating itself with the selloff today. The dow falling below its 200 day moving arveg forverage. Here to break down todays moves sheila dharmarajan. We have a lot of movers but herbalife kicking it off. The stock had opened to the upside this morning after the Company Forecast q4 profit and sales above street expectations but now in the red. Verizon and at t leading the do you lower after at t plans to cut prices on its shared data plans by 20 . In retail land joseph a. Bank and mens warehouse continuing their squabble. The former rejected the rivals latest takeover offer. On the plus side we have a winner, one of the few today, that is pfizer. Climbing on news its experiment experimental Breast Cancer drug succeeded in midstage trial. We begin with yum brands. Street calling for an 80 cent gain and hartford expected to make a 90 cent profit on sales of 5 billion. Well have results of both in the next half hour on the closing bell. Yes we do sheila. Thanks very much. Well also talk to the Hartford Group. We can solve the joseph a. Banks mens warehouse fiasco. Why dont you buy one share you get seven shares free . If we have a lot more days like today just like their commercials. Well were down 306 points on the jourdow jones industrial average. The s p 500 1742 having breached the november lows. A lot of people looking perhaps for further downside off 40 points today with the nasdaq sitting below the 4,000 mark. And the weather continues to pound the New York Stock Exchange outside. The selloff pounding the New York Stock Exchange inside. Coming up well see how the big automakers are faring with the bad weather and the tumbleing stock market. Stay tuned. She loves a lot of the same things you do. Its what you love about her. 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The nasdaq back below 4,000 for the first time in a little while and the s p down 2. 3 as well. Joining kelly and me to talk about this john manly from wells fargo and mike mcqueen from hightower. I know you have seen your share of market pullbacks on wall street. Does this one make your palms back . Yes its a very good sign. I have seen more than my share. Weve been through it well get through it again. And, mike what do you make of this . To bills point, does this even register when you go through the experience of past selloffs, whether it was in 2013 or in years prior . Actually our clients are giving us the right message which is what happened in the past is something we should sit through. None of these have been permanent. Theyre willing to sit through it. No one is panicking. I think its a natural cause of whats going on in the last couple years. Why isnt that complacency, mike . I get what theyre saying but when does it become complacency . I think the investors out there, individual investors, may have gotten some perspective from 2008 and 2009 and are beginning to act a little more like Institutional Investors if you can believe it. They have perspective and they understand the market cycle and the value of liquidity in the stock market compared to where their home values are for example. Because john, it has to be said were off almost 350 points today. And its almost like people are going thats all right. Thats actually rather unsettling. I wish im getting a little scared. I wish wed all get a little scared. The trick in a bulg marketl market is to get as squared in a 5 to 7 correction as you would with a 20 to 30 fall in a bear market. Even though there doesnt seem to be a good reason for it, its down, things happen for a reason. But, john every time weve had you on not picking on you, but there have been plenty of people like you who come through here saying we need a 10 correction. We need some kind of a pullback to weed out, you know, the weakness in this market. Isnt that whats going on . It could be. When i go through the fundamentals as i do when im scared because i have terrible instincts for stocks when i go through the fundamentals the fed will still be accommodative even if quantitative easing ends, the earnings are still coming through. Valuations on forward earnings arent bad. As long as that holds, it should be okay. I think thats exactly what youre satisfying but it goes down and i dont know exactly why and when i dont know something it makes me uncertain. Mike we have a big jobs report coming up on friday with a lot of people citing the weak jobs report last time as part of the reason why weve had this selloff. I guess the stakes are high for that one. We dont have the fed really at its next meeting until march although well hear from yellen next week. How does this unfold . If we dont have a good jobs number and if we try to ascribe it to weather, we could further be a catalyst for this correction. I would use it as an opportunity to begin to scale in though because i think we do have strong fundamentals. We do have job growth we do have rising home values and we have low energy prices. Is there anything to this first day of the month indicator where we argued about this in january. Does it mean anything . It did last week. Does it this month . Im not going to Pay Attention to it. We have to have a longer perspective. Do you feel the same way john . Better than sunspots and super bowls. This isnt much better than the super bowl. Im glad im proud of us we havent brought up that silly super bowl indicator. John, would you nibble here . Would you step in and buy some of your favorite stocks if theyve come back here some degree . Sure. Its hard to do. Its hard to buy into this kind of weakness but this is the sort of thing i think theyre starting to get to us. I think were starting to Pay Attention. Thats part of the process. The fumsndamentals are still good. At the end of the day you have to use your brain and not let yourself be ruled by emotion. Thats what im trying to do at this minute. For people who are tuning in right now saying wait a minute the market is off 300 some points for the dow. Why . What is your explanation. Marketthe market needed an excuse. Its really just an excuse. The market goes down because its been going down for a long time and occasionally it goes down. John, what do you say . I like the way this man thinks and i think thats what happened. As i said though i would feel a lot more happy if i werent as complacent as i am. Id like to see us get a little scared. This kind of day scares people so were getting there. You look at the yield on the tenyear. Kelly, you would know this number. We went below 2. 6 and we started at 3 . Weve compressed 40 basis points in a month. Were at 2. 58 today. And yet its happening at a time when the fed is pulling back on its easy money policy. Its not buying as many treasuries or its not going to as it has. You would think, john that the bond market would be pushing yields higher not lower. What do you make of that . Well im not so sure what the fed will do. I was a little surprised they continued the tapering. I think the fed is i always felt the chairman of the Federal Reserve is at least as smart as i am and she has to be seeing the same things were seeing. Tapering is not carved in stone. This is precisely Steve Liesman raised the issue, well ask people about it in the next hour about the fed response. Not as Rick Santelli is saying theyre responding to the 300 point selloff or maybe they are, but that theyre going to wait to see some real material economic weakness before they would do anything like reversing the taper, would they not . Janet yellen is seven hours into her tenure. I think shes going to have a bigger view of the situation than whats going on right now. What do you think her excuse is . I could picture her sitting in her office now saying well this is weather related. Some of the latest Economic Data weve gotten in the last week or so has been pretty weak and disappointing. Can we just lay it all to the polar vortex . Yeah i think that you will see people laying it off on weather, but at the end of the day, the last thing she wants is to get a reputation as being a reactionary. I dont think she will factor Current Events in like we think she should perhaps. John what about you . I think shell do what she thinks she should do. Just because her being brand new as chairman of the fed isnt a reason to do or not to do anything. Shell do what she thinks she should do. We all try and feel our way forward. She doesnt have to increase the taper. And i think the guys over at mkm writing a little bit about this and whether to how you know when its gone from a selloff to something more severe, they said look, wed need to see not just one month but sustained weakness in the manufacturing gauges like we saw today. Wed need to see plunging Consumer Confidence. We saw an increase. Wed need to see significant tightening in financial conditions and were not seeing that. Does that sound about right . That sounds reasonable. I see nothing wrong with reactive. If i dont get it right the first time id rather react than let it go and let it fester. I think the fed will do what they have to do. The other indicator that weve talked about in the last hour that im watching the vix, the volatility index, the fear indicator, whatever you want to call it, continues to move higher, and were above 20 now, which historically has sort of been yellow flag territory, and it has sometimes as it did last october signal a shortterm bottom in this market. You know this is the fear indicator, mike mcqueen. Theres obviously some fear among traders as they continue to buy the volatility here. Right. And john really made the good point. If there wasnt fear we should be scared. Id like to see the fear level a little higher. At the end of the day not a single one of these corrections has ever been permanent if we look back across all our careers. So why should this be any different. Thank you. We want to bring in bob pisani and the great art cashin. Art and im going to sneak away back to the set. Well see you at the top of the hour kelly. Art, what do you make of how the market is responding as we head toward the close . I think the key indicator im looking at is the yield on the ten year and thats telling me that this is more than weather related. That there are deeper portions to whats disturbing the market and i think it may be things like continuing in the emerging markets and the fact that maybe some of the temporary weakness is not whether reeather related. Im going to keep following that yield. In addition to concerns about emerging market that ism number notabley weaker than expected haas raised concerns about whether the u. S. Economy might be weaker maybe perhaps including the consumer. We saw fords numbers. They dont seem very worried. The ford executives said we dont think this is a big issue. We think its probably weather related. Obviously the market is not entirely buying that argument. I think the market is divided into three influences. One, the weak Economic Data that you got on the ism. Second, the internal technicals. When we broke 1770 we began to spiral downward. So thats important. And again finally, harking back that yield on the tenyear is not behaving as though everything is copacetic. It looks like there may be something out there that maybe we dont even see quite yet. But, arthur weve talked i will bring this up to you as i have done in the past hour to our past guests. Weve talked ad nauseam for the last several months about the lack of a 10 correction or pullback in this market that was maybe need eded to weed out the weak hands. Now were getting it but wrerere wringing it our hands at the same time. Reason im wringing my hands or at least wrenching my brain is that a good broker is a good detective. You look at all the various things and see if they match. Should gold be doing what its doing if this . Should the yield on the tenyear be doing that if this . That tells me theres something slightly untoward out there or at least it appears to be. So im going to keep my eye open. Happy to take the correction but im not washing my hands of it. In other words, theyre running for cover too much in the bond market for your taste. Theyre telling me theres something here not weather related and perhaps more serious. You were talking about complacency. I see a lot of concern here. The volumes in the big etfs were titanic today. Obviously some people are concerned. The vix over 21 thats the highest level since june. I dont think thats a sign of necessarily complacency. I think theres some signs of growing concern. And you have high volume in equities today. Another distribution day. North of 4 billion shares. A big volume day. Thank you both. Okay. See you later. So we close out a big selloff day to start the month of february after a pretty tough month of january. The dow now down more than 7 for 2014 and the nasdaq is back below 4,000. Stay tuned now for the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans. Ill see you tomorrow, kelly. Bill, i hope so. Welcome to the closing bell. Im kelly he wasevans. It is february. Maybe it was because the groundhog saw his shadow. Maybe because the mayor dropped him. Here is a look at what happened with the major indexes. The dow off 323 points. 15 15,735. The nasdaq off 2. 6 . It will close below 4,000. The s p 500 giving up 40 points to 1742. I want to get to it with the the closing bell panel. Dominic chu, kate kelly, dan greenhouse and fast money contributor tim see more. You will read a talk about how we havent had a 10 correction in x number of days and this is the first 5 correction since y number of days. Most of our clients view is the fundamental underpinnings really havent changed. Yes, the fed is buying a few less bonds. Yes, the Economic Data hasnt been perfect but ultimately earnings are coming in fine and thats what drives stock prices higher. Here is a slightly contrarian point of view. I hung up with a Hedge Fund Manager and he said to me it was 2013 that was the aberration. I found 2013 to be less ex applicable than 2008 which had more fundamental explanation for what was going on. People were so overzealous last year. 98 of the people that gave me a long stock idea were right and that never happens. Now were seeing what could be a very healthy corrections in the markets. He was predicting a turnaround between 5 and 15 . He said today is the first day of real pain were going to see. Other hedge funds say theyre seeing liquidations of some stock names. People are getting out of the nikkei as well. Obviously theyre nervous about emerging markets. So i think were going to see perhaps short term selloff continue here. Here is something interesting, too, as well. I was talking to patty don, and one thing she brought up that was very interesting was the tenyear yield. Its now below 2. 6 . Its a big move and the reason why its important was because the taper really doesnt matter anymore. All the bonds they didnt buy that they tapered have now been erased. People are flooding in and buying those Treasury Bonds, the safety of Everything Else and thats the reason why youre seeing a lot of this move. This might be this risk aversion trade. And the tenyear yield is where youre seeing the battle lines being brawn. Remember in 2013 where traders would come on and say i have no reason to sell. The situation has changed. Emerging market volatility, weak Economic Data, concerns about the fed tapering as well as the dow breaking its 200day moving average, those factors combined are giving investors a reason to hit the sell button. And it seems like were going to see a focus on data right . This is a good question for tim, too. Ism today obviously set a certain tone. Now were going to have jobs on friday that would be crucial. There might be a fedlike focus on where were at from a research perspective. Is the next move for the u. S. Federal reserve what is the channel . What is the link here between emerging markets and between whats happening in the u. S. . I think the fed basically told emerging Central Banks last week they really are going to let them fend for themselves right now. I dont think the fed until we see an appreciable impact on the u. S. Economy from emerging market weakness which as much as im a guy that sits in the middle of emerging markets every day and see this is volatility as being something thats warranted, i dont think this will slow down at least the g3. I think if you look at the data thats coming out, ism to me was a linchpin of sorts because the u. S. Economy is what we have to worry about. Consumer confidence last week consumer spending, when you look at where we are in the u. S. So far, and even the german said youre right near 2011 highs. Thats what makes the fed response so interesting. Steve liesman just last hour on the program saying look he could see a world in which janet yellen decides maybe next week to dangle a lit bit of something out there in front of Congress Perhaps saying if conditions were to materially worsen we could do x. Do you think anything like this is possible . Sure. And are be it for me to disagree with anything Steve Liesman says. But the fed has always said we can dial down the amount of purchases and dial back up the level of purchases if the economy doesnt react well. But to be Crystal Clear for viewers that are going to hear a lot about the Monthly Employment report and the ism, weather is really a bad excuse. Companies use it all the time. Economists use it all the time. The fact is december was cold and so was january. And nobody shops or buys a house or does a lot of things when theres a polar vortex gripping half the country. Its possible im surprised youre in the weather camp dan. For the First Time Ever i might be. But to be clear, if fridays number comes in weaker than expected instantaneously people like myself will come out and say, well it was pretty cold we have to wait another month. We also know and this is one of the useful things about a survey like the jobs report its very easy to tell if theres a weather effect and there was to your point in december. There absolutely was. If we see it again in january, then what is the real tell . How can you not see it in january . Its been so cold and so precipitous on the east coast alone. Even today its like are we done with had yet . This has to be affecting businesses and certainly consumer spending. Thats absolutely correct. To be clear Consumer Confidence in the midst of this ticked up. I think whats important for investors to realize when theyre picking specific stocks is a lot of this sends to be transitory transitory. When you look at specific companies you can pick them for yourselves. You dont need my advice on it. When you look at specific companies, the question is how do you not over the next day or three or six but the next six months or year. This will prove to be exactly that. Transitory. Exactly. Because if you go back to 2009 march of 2009 those intraday lows, we have seen a number of 5 corrections. Forget about the bigger ones the 10 to 17 ones. That happened the last time in 2011. Every single time the markets have been bought by investors. A lot of or by companies. Fair enough. Share buybacks but the thing thats interesting is the fed has always been talked about as the backstop of whats been happening here and now that theyre starting to taper back a little bit maybe if they insert themselves back into the picture, do you have that same kind of yellen put effect that you had with i just want to so people can get a sense real quick of what kind of selloff we have just had with a hat tip to gina francola. It looks like out of the s p 500 Nine Companies closed in positive territory. Carmax, pfizer, time warner apple interestingly enough edison and oreilly automotive. Tim, what do you make of that . Look earnings have been very good. You have to pick stocks. We had extreme positioning. 38 of the companies have beat. Theyre being more rewarded for beating on the bottom line which is a little strange because people have wanted to see 2014 guidance better. Thats really the place where people have to be clear. The equities that i see in the markets im following are not trading on macro data. Theyre tradingen extreme positioning and valuations. Look at the transports. Look at Kansas City Southern a name down 20 almost overnight when they say 2014 is going to be difficult. These stocks became people werent looking at their businesses. They can only grow so much. This is a place where you have to take a step back make your Shopping List. Which on fast money tonight were going to have everybody will give their Shopping List. Its a great time to be licking your chops. I want to go to peter costa who is joining us just after the close of trade on the floor. Peter, talk to us about volume. I just cited one of the breadth indicators. We only had a handful of stocks in the s p 500 closing higher. What is the significance of todays selloff to you . Theres a couple things i want to bring up. Number one everybody in the country and everybody who has been on tv for the last two weeks has been saying this is a buying opportunity. So you know what . Im going to say im going to go out there and say weve bail hit the 200 day moving average, went through it. I think tomorrow is a very very important day because if we continue on the downside with significant volume which you can look at 920 million on the mis e and say thats significant volume but it really isnt. If we do see significant volume tomorrow on the downside we could definitely be in that corrective phase youve been talking about. Let me let dom in here. Its interesting because, peter, we talked about the Nine Companies in the s p 500 that actually made these new highs, closed up and whatnot. Whats interesting is a lot of them have this Common Thread that theyre very domestically u. S. Focused. Time warner cable is one of them, southern company, oreilly automotive. The auto parts retailer is one of them. Do you see a theme here developing where people really want to go after domestic u. S. Focused companies to avoid the emerging market bloodbath that may be happening . Absolutely. And i think that youre going to continue to see that this week and i think well probably i have been reading online in a couple different blogs where they think the emerging market situation might go on for over a month or two months. So i think people are starting to put their money in what they feel is the safest im sorry the safest haven right now and that is u. S. A little mood music here. Smooth jazz for these volatile markets. Seema, what were you going to say . Thomas leo at jpmorgan sees the emerging market volatile as an opportunity. Hes recommending clients to find companies that have high exposure to emerging markets. Theres one contrarian in the mick of this that says this might be a buying opportunity. I have a quick question for dom. In terms of the fed having been very involved at the 85 billion a month purchasing rate and now maybe theyll step on the gas again. Its 65 a month quite a high rate as well. Theyre still highly involved, arent they . Theres no doubt theyre still highly involved. But it was something bob pisani made during his bold predictions early on. He said he wouldnt be surprised maybe if the fed decided to reaccelerate bond purchases because it does demonstrate theyre data dependant. If the data goes the wrong way, maybe they go back and say, hey, we stop the taper, halt the taper a little bit, and maybe even put like you said put the pedal to the metal a little more. One quick point. Let me go on record as saying i dont see a way that the fed increases asset purchase going forward. We have to remember something really important here and thats the fed wants to get away from buying bonds. They dont think its as effective anymore as they once thought it might be or was. Theyre done with it. Theyre relying on Forward Guidance. I think it would send a terrible signal to markets if go ahead, tim. Didnt you just say theyre very data dependent . What do they do . And, in fact yellen fed needs to show theres continuity and continuity says they are truly listening to the macro. Listen i think they could do one of two things off the top of my head. The first is they could pause. I dont think that necessarily meets the criteria i just outlined and secondly they could rely on Forward Guidance and reinforce the idea that rates are going to be low for a long time. They could lower the Unemployment Rate threshold. They could suggest theyre they should just talk about inflation. Talk about the fact that inflation may not be as high at this current time. Someone is coming up who will discuss that very topic. Quickly while i have you tim, let me ask you a quick question about the em situation. If i had asked you four months ago to name three or four top emerging markets that might be hit if there was volatility would not turkey the ukraine, argentina be at or near the top of the list . They have been on that list for 18 months dan. So this is the thing thats a little surprising and if you look at companies, were about to hear from yum brands who have priced in a lot of emerging markets headwinds. I think you have to be very careful about shorting into the hole if thats where youre looking at some of these names. I agree with what youre saying. For people that are waking up and saying theres problems in venezuela, where have you been for the last decade and if you look at the Economic Impact of venezuela on this country w a handful of corporates you hear them talk cmh, Pay Attention to that but its not taking down the world. Thats exactly right. Tim, thank you for joining us on this day. You can be sure to stick around and catch more of tim coming up on fast money at 5 00 p. M. They will all have their Shopping List as he mentioned. Much more ahead on todays selloff. Two of wall streets top market pros weigh in on whats really happening here. Is it a healthy correction . Is it something worse . How worried should you be . Well get a reality check from two folks who have been through this plenty of times before. Plus yum brands and hartford financial earnings are on deck. 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Tdd 18886282419 open an account and earn 300 commissionfree online trades. Call 18886282419 to learn more. Tdd 18886282419 so you can take charge of your trading. Welcome back. A rocking start to kick off the week and the month. Sheila dharmarajan, running through the stocks feeling the most pain. What a rocking day indeed. Lets start off with herbalife which had a roller coaster of the day. Opening strongly after it said else sales would come in higher than street forecasts. But then it dipped and then ended in the green. We have a big loser in fire eye after the anticyber Hacking Company fired a 700 million secondary offering. Twitter was a winner today gaining ground. Rbc capital and web bush both said they were optimistic about the outlook for the companys Fourth Quarter and 2014 performance. Ford and General Motors losing ground after they reported a 7. 5 and 12 decline in january sales respectively. Blaming in part of course the bad weather. And finally we do have aol moving higher after the price target was raised to 57 a share from 46 a share citing the companys strategic momentum excuse me, citing the companys strategic momentum. Thank you. For more on todays selloff, lets bring in the former ceo of wells fargo and Daniel Alpert managing partner at westwood capital. Great to see you both. Dan, youre right here. I want to know what you make of the markets today . All of this is a reaction to the ism and pmi data but that was signaled at the end of the q4. China was beginning to soften already and the problem with that is that you only have a world here of limited aggregate demand. When china softens, its signaling. When we get to a situation where chinas inflation rate starts to come in thats very bad for the United States. How bad is it going to get here . In my opinion, bonds and equities are adjusting to a postqe world. Everybody thought that when qe ended we would see Interest Rates go sky high or at least higher. Right. That is proving not to be the case. There seems to be ample demand for high quality sovereign debt. Thats not just in the United States but uk japan, et cetera. And that demand is out there no longer facing the falling knife of tapering. Everybody sees tapering is happening and, oh, my doshgosh how much lower could Interest Rates go . I think 2 2. 5 on the ten year. I dont think thats going to happen. I think the opposite will happen. But i think whats happening today is very rational. I think the market is very fairly valued. I have been saying that for quite some time and i think that when the fed says the reason they go qe 1, 2, and 3 is to help risk assets when they taper, you would think the opposite would happen. So were simply seeing a rational reaction to say the fed is tapering therefore, theyre not going to support the market as much. But thats healthy. I think if we get a 10 correction, i think the market will be higher at the end of the year than if we dont get a 10 correction and we keep the market going to levels that cannot be sustained. What do you think, dan . Well i think right now were looking at all Financial Assets including housing in the United States having been rallied enormously by an easy money policy thats been going on for five years. But i just go by the past. After they announced qe1 was going to end and qe2 was going to end, bonds slumped and Interest Rates rose and then the market rationalized. The same thing that happened now happened then. And the same thing is happening right now. This is what i wonder. So you can see a situation in which the u. S. Economy is improving and we work through a little bit of a selloff and we come out the other side having felt as though weve moved on. But what happens if were trapped in the past or trapped in the situation like we have seen in the past where those weaker financial conditions that you mention make the fed feel like its got to step up . Well i think the fed has finally realized qe 1, 2, and 3 didnt work and i think they want to get out of the bond market. Were seeing also that i think the reason that the tenyear has improved is the flight to quality. You know the currency situation in developing markets again caused by the fed is disruptive. Where are you going to invest . The stock market is fully valued. So its very natural that it goes to the high quality bonds. I think thats just temporary. I think its not good for the u. S. Economy because the weakened currencies in developing markets is going to cause our exports to be reduced, and thats going to slow the economy. All of this is caused by an inappropriate fed policy and anyone who believes that more bond purchases helps to grow this u. S. Economy doesnt understand the u. S. Economy in my opinion. What is the right response dick . To keep tapering. The best response is if we could taper faster but they wont do that. I think i think 10 billion a month until it gets done. I think there dick and i completely agree. I would end the qe tomorrow. The price dislocations that have resulted are horrible. I totally agree. What you need to do is watch the inflation statistics. The bond market is not going to slump if inflation is sub par, continues to be sub par, and if you look at the things that drove inflation even to its very meager 1. 5 1. 7 levels of last year those were expansions in housing and rents and other areas that right now we dont see at least from our perspective, we dont see a good chance of that continuing. Youre writing about the age of supply thats your book oversupply. What did i say . Supply. Oversupply. Im sorry. Oversupply. This is an important part of it. Youre talking about oversupply super low inflation, and yet saying the fed shouldnt respond. Well the fed has responded, and what its concluded in the last round is that it has diminishing returns. They did pump up assets. Dick is absolutely right. They pumped up Financial Assets housing, et cetera and the problem is that has only had a limited impact a very limited impact on the real economy and whats happening right now is people are scratching their heads and saying if that was all we got in the real economy, what is the world going to be like without it . Dick last word to you. And i think we should worry about something else. Were seeing a reaction just from the tapering. Theres 4 trillion on the feds balance sheet. Ten times more than than theres ever been. Think whats going to happen to the bond market when you have to start getting rid of some of that. So, you know all the things the fed has done other than get the markets back to normal in 2009 in my opinion has been a mistake. All right. Well thats m. Y. R. A. Comes in. The retail public can buy them. Thank you. Really appreciate it. Then theres the fed. It is Janet Yellens first day on the job officially today and shes greeted with this kind of selloff. Is she paying attention and what does the fed do now . That discussion right after this. Well another great thing about all this walking ive been doing is that its given me time to reflect on some of lifes biggest questions. Like, if you could save hundreds on Car Insurance by making one simple call, why wouldnt you make that call . See, the only thing i can think of is that you cant get any. Bars. Ah, thats better. Its a beautiful view. I wonder if i can see mt. Rushmore from here. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on Car Insurance. Welcome back. So the dow closing down 326 points on the day janet yellen is sworn in. Earlier on this program our Steve Liesman thought economic factors, not necessarily just the market could mean yellens first big move will be to taper the taper. Joining me now with more reaction, ben white, the chief economics correspondent from politico. How is it going down in the beltway . The beltway, janet yellen is obviously not loving her first day with the stocks down 300 or more points. The big question is will she talk about a pause to the taper. I would pay close attention to her testimony next week before the House Financial Services committee on tuesday and then the Senate Banking on thursday. Shell get a lot of questions about regulation and that sort of thing but marketing will be looking at any indication that shes taking both the Economic Data which is pretty soft into consideration and the selloffs in the market to perhaps in march gave a taper to the taper. I dont think she wants to do that. They want to get out, but if we keep seeing days like this, they may have no choice. And, ben, i want to bring in the panel as well. We also learned today ben bernanke will be taking on a gig at brookings. Hell be in the neighborhood. Hes going to be in the neighborhood. Do you think there will be conversations. This is such a high profile first appearance for her and one that comes at a market sensitive juncture. I imagine they will be. They were close friends. She spoke about him being Obiwan Kenobi to her Luke Skywalker skywalker. Im sure theyll chat. Im sure hell give her some war stories about what its like to face people in congress who maybe dont have a lot of expertise in Monetary Policy but you got to be nice to them when they ask you questions. So shell get some political advice from him and then obviously theyll talk about the taper and whether to stay on course or not. But its Janet Yellens bus to drive now. Ben, hi its dan greenhouse. Hi dan. Obviously this is the the economic weakness is relatively new, it may be weather related. We have another month before the next fed hearing. Lets say the market continues to weaken but the data necessarily does not. Do you have any insight into whether janet yellen is likely to favor slowing down asset purchases, although i dont think she will but with market weakness thats not accompanied by economic weakness in the data . I doubt it. It will be much more dependent on the Economic Data. For instance, if we get a strong jobs report friday that reverses that bad one we got in december and if the revisions are to the upside, that would weigh much more on her Decision Making than a few more days of corrections in the market. I think she said in her confirmation hearing she didnt think stocks were in bubble territory but clearly is aware they ran up a great deal last year and were seeing some of the froth come off and selloffs in stocks. If we were to see down days of 3 day after day, that would be a different story, about you a couple more d a a couple hundred points off the dow and s p will not weigh on her decision to taper. Particularly if that Economic Data turns a little bit and starts coming in stronger and we do think a lot of it was weather related, then i think they stay on course. Ben its kate kelly. How are you . Im great. How are you . Good. One of the thoughts people seem to think about yellen is she would be staying the course bernanke set as chairman. This is a job with quite a bit of latitude and right now she has potentially added latitude because if the data changes, she has a very reasonable explanation for why she may want to change the taper plans as theyre unfolding right now. Oshd on the other hand, she has indicated she would stay the course charted and she could write off one set of Economic Data as a one off, weather related, so shes got quite a suite of options here and probably a grace period right, to kind of make her first few moves without an overreaction. I think thats probably true and obviously shes got a pretty long run of data to draw from when she faces the press on march 19th. Were talking about bad data now, but there could be a lot between now and then that changes. Thats why it makes next week sort of interesting when shes on the hill right after the stock market selloffs and with this bad Economic Data. My guess is she doesnt make a whole lot of news she continues to say the economy underlying some of this volatility is doing pretty well, doesnt get too freaked out about the stock prices, and indicates that the fed will stay on course which itself could lead so more turmoil in the markets but it will take a lot more bad data to get her off the plan of tapering. You had previously guests who said the fed is very desirous by the end of this year getting back to more normal policy. They want to get on the sidelines and they think the underlying economy is Strong Enough to let them do that. But what if what if janet yellen what would the Market Perception be if yellen would taper the taper . Thats my question. Would she be conceived as weak perhaps for her to come in her first fed meeting and to then already change the plan in action . No. I think the reverse would probably be case. Shed be viewed as taking bold action in the face of difficult data to pause and just following through on what the fed has said that theres no preset course and they could change direction. No matter what she does shell come out fine. Could be remember volcker moment. Ben, thank you very much. Baptism by fire to be sure. Well have more on the selloff today. Wall streets red arrows companied by a harsh snowstorm too boot. A heads up on when the next round will hit. Theres another storm on its way across the country heading to the northeast. Plus the big three automakers or at least two of them skidding because of snow and cold. Coming up just what has been the impact of weather on auto sales . Well be right back. Let me talk to you about retirement. A 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable professional. Would you trust me as your Financial Advisor . I would. I would indeed. Well, lets be clear here. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way i have no Financial Experience at all. That really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro you just dont know. Find a certified Financial Planner professional whos thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan. Org. Cfp work with the highest standard. Welcome back. It was bad inside the stock market and outside today as well. Mother nature has been wreaking havoc yet again this winter and it could get worse this week. Nbcs jen maxfield has the latest out of morris town new jersey. I cannot believe its still snowing. How much accumulation is there . Reporter kelly, it has been snowing for more than 12 hours now. We have a little more than six inches here in morris town but as opposed to the last storm where the weather was so cold what we are dealing with today in morris town is much thicker, its wet, and heavy. You can see what its doing to the branches and the lefers onaves on the tree behind me. Thats caused a most of problems. Police are reporting many utility lines down throughout the state of new jersey. There are power outages, especially in Bergen County and that again because of the weight of the snow on the utility lines. I do happen to have a ruler here with me. Im not promising this is a scientific measurement but were going to put it into the snow thats accumulated on this fencepost here and we see about seven inches in morris town. Its one of the larger snow totals in the state of new jersey, but, again, this snow really a challenge for people who are trying to dig it out of their driveways. A snowplow just went past here on farragut street just about two minutes ago so you can see the street here is clear and thats pretty good especially considering this is a dead end, so probably one of the last streets to get plowed but this is just round one for this week. This is storm maximus. Early wednesday morning were looking at winter storm nika and then again on sunday potential for more snow. The people weve been talking to today say they have absolutely had it and its only early february. So, again, a snowy week expected in new jersey. Kelly, back to you. And a near miss for the super bowl. Thanks very much. Its something walmart talked about in its Fourth Quarter, about the impact of eight named storms on its results, and today ford and General Motors both down with the rest of the market, this on word that Mother Nature hit auto sales hard in january. Phil lebeau assessing the damage for us. Hey, phil. Ugly numbers, kelly. Anyway you look at it ugly numbers for the month of january for the auto industry. When you look at the sales pace compare where we came in in january versus the annual sales pace. 15. 24 million for the month of january, and there you can see many people saying, well listen, we should have been closer to 15. 6 15. 7. Fell well short of that. Sales on the eastern half of the United States were below expectations. On the eastern half of the u. S. And in central u. S. They were down 10 according to ford. That was for the industry. The automakers say the problem is there simply werent people coming into the show rooms. Traffic was down. Picked up a little in the middedle month when the storms went away but then it got bad towards the end of the month again. Theyre not changing guidance when it comes to sales for february or for the first quarter. Take a look at these number. I said they were bad. All below expectations. Chrysler, even though it was up 8 that was below expectations. Stocks, this he took it on the chin today, especially gm and ford. Selling off probably with the rest of the market but these numbers did not help. If theres any good news here, kelly, its the fact that i have talked with a few dealers and all of them have said the same thing. They believe the weather kept people out of showrooms and they do believe people will return weather permitting this month. Wow. Phil, stale with us if you will. At this point i want to bring in auto expert lauren fix, known as the car coach. Lauren, welcome, and is this weakness really all just about the weather . Thank you. Well, part of it is the weather and the other thing is a lot of consumers have just seen the l. A. And detroit auto shows with a lot of new product. If you want to buy the new kia k900 or the new mini cooper you have to wait for it to get into show rooms and everybody is saying spring. Justs a jeep had a really good month up 38 , the reason for that is new product is finally getting into dealerships. They had some manufacturing delays. Thats part of it. But then on the other side you have to look at all the incentives out there. You can only milk this market so much and the average price of a car being sold at gross number is down 1. 2 bringing the average price of cars down to about 29,800 a vehicle. Consumers can only be with the economy, you have tax returns and the weather, i think all three together sort of hit their own polar vortex. Well and, phil what i wonder and im sure its important for all the auto stocks is whether auto sales in terms of the new auto sales is praek peaked. 2013 was such a strong year. Is that as good as it gets . No. If we have two or three months where we come in at 15. 2 or 15. 4 million as the sales rate then well see people adjust their expectations lower, but right now, kelly, the expectation is that overall sales for the industry will be about 16. 3 million for this year. Compare that with 16. 4 million for last year. Lauren what about you . I think were looking at somewhere between 16. 1 and 16. 4. Its really hard to tell because its not just the weather. It has to do with the product, has to do with the economy. Remember, people are still waiting for that tax bill to come and thats going to be impacted by our current on again off again economy. We had a dip in the stock market and also weve got obamacare which could impact individuals to the point where they dont buy that new car and hold off on that purchase. These are all factors that are very difficult to predict. You know phil i want to ask to that point, theres been more suggestion lately given the broad based weakness we have seen across some major retailers that maybe it is the Health Care Premiums related to obamacare thats taking more of a bite out here than people had expected. Anything anecdotally youre picking up on that . I asked that question about five minutes ago to an auto dealer in kansas city. He laughed and said i have never heard that suggested yet. I brought this up to others in the i industry nobody thinks increased premiums might be keeping people from going into the showroom. When you look at the leasing rates and Interest Rates, if you want a car for 170 a month, you can get one. I know. Its never been cheaper. So that suggestion has been floated out there. I have not heard that from anybody in the industry. Got to leave it there. Lauren, great to see you. Thanks for all the detail and pushl if especially if it was that part of the country where we saw weather, you can understand some of the weakness. Appreciate it. Also hartford financial out with results just moments ago. The insurance giant ceo speaks to me exclusively next. Well talk earnings. We will talk obamacare and the economy a lot more. Keep it right here. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Mine was earned in korea in 1953. Afghanistan, in 2009. Orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once its earned, usaa Auto Insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. 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If youre living with moderate to severe crohns disease, and it feels like your life revolves around your symptoms, ask your gastroenterologist about humira adalimumab. Humira has been proven to work for adults who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohns disease. In clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief and many achieved remission. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infections, lymphoma or other types of cancer have happened. Blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions and new or worsening Heart Failure have occurred. Before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. Ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. Tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. You should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. Ask your gastroenterologist about humira today. Remission is possible. Welcome back. We also have Earnings Results just hitting from yum brands. Our sara eisen breaking down the numbers for us. The stock is shooting higher kelly, in the afterhours. Let me run you through the headlines here. On the top line adjusted earnings per share come in at 86 cents per share. The estimate was 80 cents per share. Revenue came in a bit light, 4. 18 billion versus 4. 26 4. 26 billion. Shares on a tear even though u. S. Samestore sales for the Fourth Quarter disappointed. They came in negative 2 . China sales, samestore sales, this is huge this company in china, down 4 as expected. Its a company that gets half of its revenue from china. Its had an extremely difficult year in 2013 because of avian flu, bird flew scares. Customers ran away from some of the kfcs all over china. Thousands of stores there. Also pizza hut growth samestore sales came in a little disappointing in december but perhaps its baked na edd into the stock. The call is not until tomorrow 9 15 a. M. Eastern. Perhaps analysts are looking to this for a stabilization to the cops companys problems in china. Ill continue to dig through and see where the bright spots are. Boy are we watching shares spiking in the afterhours. Thats for sure. Theyre up 5 to 6 . Youre saying the u. S. Samestore sales off 2 and china off 4 . Exactly. That 4 was expected. The 2 was a little surprisingly weak. Well take a look at the guidance numbers. Better results certainly than mcdonalds. Thank you for now. Bob pisani joins me now. We want to get some context. Any thoughts on yum first . Down 4 not great on china, but the question is can they stabilize right here . Thats a huge part of their overall business. Well see. Id like to hear what they have to say on the Conference Call and how theyre dealing with some of the issues they had with the chinese authorities. Lets talk about today. If you want to. What made people a little freaked out, we were already worried about the emerging markets. We got the ism numbers and car Sales Numbers coming in below expectation. You have another overlay of concern is the consumer weaker . Yes, everybody blamed the weather and that is a big part but they were not willing to forgive everybody on that particular issue. And art cashin likes to point out the tenyear wasnt moving because of the weather. No it wasnt. And weather is a nonrecurring item item. If its bad this month, it will get better next month in theory. Thank you, bob. The market selloff, the talk of wall street today. Coming up next well see how markets fared over at cnbc. Com. The hot list is coming up. Keep it right here. [ male announcer ] this is karen and jeremiah. They dont know it yet but theyre gonna fall in love get married, have a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money. [ dog barks ] because right after they get married theyll find some financial folks who will talk to them about preparing early for retirement and be able to focus on other things, like each other, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. Weekdays are for rising to the challenge. Theyre the days to take care of business. When possibilities become reality. With centurylink as your trusted partner, our visionary Cloud Infrastructure and Global Broadband network free you to focus on what matters. With Custom Communications solutions and responsive dedicated support, we constantly evolve to meet your needs. Every day of the week. Centurylink® your link to whats next. Welcome back. Insurance company the hartford reporting better than expected Fourth Quarter results. The stock popping about 3 after hours on the news settling down a little bit now. Joining me in a cnbc 3 in afterhours news. Joining me now is liam mcgee chairman and ceo of the hartford. Its great to have you here. What can you tell us about the quarter . Hi, kelly. Its nice to be with you again. It was an outstanding Fourth Quarter. It was a milestone for us in transformation and turnaround of the firm. And a lot of good things coalesced in the Fourth Quarter. Our go forward businesses had very good year over year earnings growth. We significantly reduced the size and risk of our legacy variable annuity blocks particularly in japan. And we made progress in the effectiveness and efficiency of the firm. Because of our financial strength and now significant capital flexibility, we were very pleased to announce a twoyear Cap Management plan with 2 billion of equity repurchases and about 656 million in Debt Repayment in 2014 and 15. Overall, a very gratifying quarter and year. Sure. And i want to ask you about a couple specific parts of your business. And apologize for the syncing issues we have. I can hear you fine. Tell us about autos. We got weak auto Sales Numbers today. There was news out of the Obama Administration that they may be encouraging cars to talk to one another down the line. What are you seeing in terms of the Auto Insurance business . Actually that business performed pretty well for us. I listened carefully to your segment with phil lebeau. And i would agree that east coast and eastern u. S. Weather had an impact on economic activity, as weve experienced here in new england. Telematics is an emerging theme in aweuto insurance, where you can adjust premiums based on the safe driving habits of the insured. And theres technologies coming down the road where cars will become smarter. Thats not a nearterm thing but its something were thinking about and preparing for. What about claims for things like workers comp . We heard about the weakness from u. S. Consumers, when food stamps run out, Unemployment Benefits run out. Can you tell us about trends in that important part of the business . Well both in our workers comp business and our disability business claims have really flattened out. Loss cause trends have flattened out and are actually beginning to get better. Thats one of the reasons youve seen improvement in profitability in workers comp for us. As well as a significant improvement in improvement in profitability and life businesses. Quick, because todays Market Action was so severe weve seen stocks selloff. But weve seen longerterm Interest Rates really come down this year. How much of a headwind for you guys . Well certainly, lower rates make investing new money, getting an acceptable yield with the appropriate risk reward more challenging. But id remind you, kelly, that we have a large general account. But only a small percentage of that is up for reinvestment on an annual basis. Its a headwind. But its manageable. Liam thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. Really appreciate it. Liam mcgee as the Hartford Group turns in earnings. The snowstorm, meanwhile, turning wall street white. Allen wastler joins us now with the host list. It was all about the market today. Look at the traffic spike we got just after lunchtime when things started heating up. Look at that bad boy. Just a nice little poke up there. Theres already over 40,000 people have read our market story for the day. And theyre still piling in. I checked just a couple minutes ago. 5,000 people every minute reading the story, all the way through. Now, when everybodys worried about the market they want to hear what the wiseman has to say. Art cashin in an exclusive video, talking about the two key factors hes looking at. He had some interesting thought about weather and the jobs number. Sort of like traders can use the weather as a get out of jail free card. Anyway our final thing on the hot list today, we did an explainer on market corrections. What does that mean . Well its 10 below. Theres a lot of nuance involved in a correction. And theres a lot of difference between that and a bear market capitulation, all the other things. We lay it all out there. If its confusing you, go to the website and check it out. Those are my three burners. I think its fascinating. I often think about it as 10 . But its not the case actually. Its not exactly 10 . Its not like the market says we hit the 10 level. Markets get sloppy sometimes, right . And so does the website. Thank you, allen. Great to see you this afternoon. Heres what i wonder. Is it almost like the old reagan line about a recession and a depression, like a how would you describe a correction . Ive had this fight with a number of our clients. And i get angry with people on tv who say we havent had a 10 correction in however long. There were concerns about greece in 2012. The s p sold off 9. 94 . Is that not sufficient to meet the level of a correction . I dont agree with that and i dont think many other people would. That would suggest that markets arent as vulnerable to in other words, the climb hasnt been as aggressively upward without pause, as people have been characterizing. Whether we had a correction of 10 or not, or the summer of 2011, or not, is whether youre susceptible to a correction today. Each depreciation is separate from the last. But these are interesting talking points that people use. But to the point of the cnbc story, theres no firm definition if we have a correction or not. Dom, it is pretty clear. You want to talk bear market, 20 , right . Lopping off a fifth of the market value. You need a point of reference. Thats what investors are looking for. Theyre looking for a reason a methodology, a data point to make a decision on whether they want to buy or sell a stock. In this case a correction maybe the technical term for a lot of traders is 10 . Some people say a 5 decline or a discount in price, is still a quote unquote correction. But what it boils down to is if you believe that correction is something thats going to exacerbate or one you can buy on. Thats why people focus on the number 10. On the fundamental side, its weak academic data. We see the selloff pressure continue, were seeing market technicians looking at the 50 100 and 150 day moving averages. These are the levels well watch tomorrow. 1730s on the s p 500 in some cases. We have a lot lower to go. 14930, thats the 10 correction ground for the dow. Thank you so much. Coming up on fast money, correction protection. Traders revealing their Shopping List. What you should be buying after todays selloff. I always say be the man with the plan but with less energy, moodiness, and a low sex drive, i had to do something. I saw my doctor. A blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. We talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal in about two weeks in most men. Axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or Breast Cancer. Women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. Report these symptoms to your doctor. Tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. 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Our traders are tim seymour, brian kelly, Karen Finerman and guy adami