The tapering should start sooner rather than later. Thats as long as the economy can withstand it. So really, it was no new information. Exactly. And yet the market was all over the map. We want to get reaction about the market, the fed, the state of the economy, from our special cohost, ken langone will join me, and now attorney general eric holder promising significant reaction related to the financial crisis. Well get his take on eliot spitzer, his once nemesis, leading the polls in new york, the comptroller race. Theres a lot of talk about that with the outspoken ken langone. Ken is such a quiet man. Such a quiet man. The market will look for a lifeline from hewlettpackard. Yeah, were not finished yet. We have earnings tonight after the bell from hpq. The stock has been under pressure today but it is still the top dow stock for the year by a mile. Its up about 80 year to date. Well have the important numbers for you when they hit the tape at 4 00 eastern. All right. First, lets check where we stand now as we approach the final hour. The dow is lower by about 17 points. You heard the scoop, down 122 points at its worst after the fed minutes came out. 14,985. Now, that is below 15,000. If we close below 15,000, that would be the First Time Since july 3rd, i believe. Yes. Nasdaq is higher here, bouncing off of the lows, as you can see, 9. 66, at 3,623. The Standard Poors has a similar chart pattern, up a fraction here. Bob, the markets seemed to push the panic button right away when the minutes came out and then they rethought that. As art said to me, they realized these were conversations that took place three weeks ago. Reporter yeah, theres a way to look at this somewhat bullishly, though they seem split on things. Put up the full screen. Ill summarize whats going on. Theyre trying to keep the options open. The fed said they were split over the taper timing. Read that carefully. Not that they were split over tapering. But split over the timing of the tapering. And now, what a lot of guys are saying on the trading floors is they expect this to mean some taper light is coming likely in september. Whats that . Instead of going from 85 billion in bond purchases to 60 billion, the way some people thought, you go from 85 billion to 75 billion, a sort of taper light. You can get a consensus for that kind of modest tapering. That is not necessarily bearish in this environment. And i think some people, its part of the reason why we saw the markets move up right here. One of the things that helped the markets, Interest Ratesensitive groups here, the banks had a nice move to the upside. Theres bank of america, helped the overall averages. The Dow Jones Industrials in particular moving up here. Guys, i think it would be a bullish signal if we could end in anywhere near positive territory. Its a signal the market is getting more comfortable with tapering, and whether the timing is dramatic in september or december, im not sure it makes an awful lot of difference. I go with the taperinglight idea. That makes sense to me. Back to you. All right, bob, thank you so much. Joining us now in our Closing Bell Exchange is mark, david, doug from ing, and ben willis from albert freed company. Good to see everybody. Thank you for joining us. Lets talk the markets. First off, what a wild what a wild reaction, ben. Talk to us about what went on down here when the minutes first came out, about an hour ago. I think you saw a reaction with the algorithms that might have been left on during the fed minutes, just the term the few may have been an indication there was a collegial consensus from Ben Bernankes fed. Its old news. Its three weeks old. We know tapering is coming. And what bob pisani said, its the timing of the tapering and tightening, or tapering light. But, you know, the 10year is holding at the higher levels, ben. It held there. We took our queue from that. We didnt have an overreaction on the 10year, as well. The 10year has been trending higher. Once again, just a reminder of, i guess, economics 101, is that Rising Interest Rates are an indication of something good going on. Its a symptom of a healthy economy. We may not think its as healthy as wed like it to be, but the fed is telling us, in fact, were going to take the training wheels off here, ready to go. Steven, you agree. The markets are trying to make sense of a higher Interest Rate world right now. Thats right. Were in a transitionary period now. Were trying to adjust to higher Interest Rates. Looking at better growth ahead. One of the interesting things weve seen is that even as stocks have sold off, rates have gone up, its the cyclical sectors, industrials, technology, energy, materials that have outperformed. And what that tells us is that investors are getting more comfortable with the Growth Outlook for the year ahead, and thats a positive thing. So how do you invest in a risingrate environment . David, what are the strategies as rates move higher . Well, i think i would add to the last statement, industrials, cyclicals, technology. We like the banks, because of the steepening yield curve. You know, all those sectors that have held up pretty well that we think will continue to do well for the remainder of the year. And the market has to digest the onset of tapering. Thats the process were going through. Were only down a little over 3 from our level earlier this month. Right. And, you know, we move to that period and those sectors will do quite well. Doug, what are you doing . Are you ready to buy the dips . We are down about 3 3 in the last six trading sessions here. Would you buy this . Certainly. I would be fully allocated at this point. But what the minutes couldnt have seen, or missed, was the action in the foreign kourcurre markets. Im concerned whats going on in indonesia, india, asia, and there are signs that quantitative easing is actually creating a credit bubble, and i think thats i think the markets are going to really have to watch that closely. If you look at the indonesian bond yield, thats skyrocketed over the past month. A little concerned about that, though. Bill, if i could add if i bill, if i could add to that. Go ahead. Yeah, weve heard a lot of people talking about the valuations in emerging markets being so compelling, and, you know, for this year, 2013, thats essentially been a value trap. The valuations could continue to be low, because of the concern over capital inflows into those countries. Qe 1, qe 2, qe 3, sent a lot of money to the emerging Market Countries and tapering will take it out. Is it is it the fact, also, that those areas have slowed down quite a bit . I mean, i remember when brazil was churning out 7 growth levels, and then, you know, a couple quarters ago, it was. 5 . How much of it is just the story of slowdown . There is yeah, theres a slowdown. The recession in europe. Those developed countries that they export to. But i think that theres an underestimation of the impact of tapering or i think people said theres been an overreaction, someone said theres been an overreaction. I think its been an appropriate reaction. Those people that have allocated to emerging markets this year, thats been a misallocation. The sectors done very poorly this year. And we dont think that turns yet. Steven parker, the other asset class we havent talked about would be commodities. You know, plenty of people feel the dollar is destined to go higher if Interest Rates go higher. Does that mean you avoid materials and commodities, even though material stocks have been very well performing here. I think commodities is another market thats been closely tied to whats going on in emerging markets. So the slowdown in growth, particularly in places like china, have weighed on the performance of metals and ene y energy. You know, were being very cautious and thoughtful in terms of where were taking our exposure in the commodity market. We think theres better opportunities in places like energy, not as much like metal, because we think china is slowing. That being said, there are other places in the world where growth is getting better. Europe being one of those. In fact, im told materials are one of the worst performers today. Right. The dollar has rebounded to some degree. The dollar index is higher, unusual lately. Thats right. The growth will be better, but a gradual reacceleration. Without china returning to levels wed seen previously, it will weigh on prices. What about oil . Its sitting here for sometime. Is there a way to make money, or is it overvalued . No, we think that we like energy. We like Energy Stocks, in fact. Even more so than the commodity. When you look at Energy Stocks, valuations sentiment around them, you know, were at a place right now where fund managers, assets have moved away from Energy Stocks and we actually added to that tactically when oil dipped below 100. Ben willis, what are you watching . I was buying protection, looking for more downside move. As you just mentioned, we saw about a 3 drop in the broad markets over the last few days. And i would love to see us break below that. The last time the biggest correction we had was 3. 5 . Right. However, if im going to be investing, i like the energy sector, i like the partnerships as an area of interest. Now, theyve been sold off as a group, because of their Interest Rate sensitivity, but thats not why im looking at them. Im looking at them, the toll takers, regardless of the cost of the product going through their pipeline. Technology. If you believe, again, the economies around the world are improving, the trade is already happening in some of the earliers, and now looking at the industrials as a place. And particularly, i should i put the technology industrials, some of the bigger names in that group, so to speak. The whole thing, you remember the Central Banks were taking Interest Rates and their currencies to the bottom, a and we call it the race to the bottom. Were now seeing a reversal of that, and it will be how well managed reversal of the currency move is managed by the Central Banks, starting with ben bernanke and the dollar. And that impact on the commodity. Got it. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, guys. Abreerkt it. In the final stretch of trading. About 50 minutes before the closing bell is down. When we come back, fast and furious reaction to the feds latest hints on when it may start easing up on stimulus. Well have live reactions, Steve Liesman out in jackson hole, wyoming, getting ready for the big meetings there. Rick santelli in chicago. Do not miss that conversation coming up. And after the bell, home depot cofounder, kenneth langone, hosting the 4 00, as we know from the last time he was here, anything can happen. Wait until you hear what he says about Elliott Spitzer leading the comptroller race. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Voted best Investment Services company. So you want to drive more safely . Of smart. Stop eating. Take deep breaths. Avoid bad weather. [ whispers ] get eight hours. [ shouts over music ] turn it down and, of course, talk to farmers. Hi. Hi. We are farmers bum pa dum, bum bubum bum its been a volatile day in terms of stocks trading. The dow down about 6 points. As soon as the fed minutes were released about 2 10 eastern, the market tanked, down 1 2 points. Came all the way back, and now has now been back and forth. Lots of volatility. Were not finished yet. Joining us to talk about all of this is our own Steve Liesman, out in jackson hole, getting ready for the fed meetings there. Rick santelli in chicago, hoping to get a word in edgewise with these two is lindsay from stearns. Lindsey, ill start with you, before the whole thing starts here. What did you make of what the fed hold on a second bill, bill bill, hold on a second [ laughter ] go ahead. She can go. Dont be shy. Youre so bad. This will happen a lot. Its very much what weve been hearing from fed officials over the past several weeks. They are comfortable with the idea of tapering sooner than later. But they also want to make sure the data supports that change in policy that were seeing the increase momentum in the second half of the year. Now, what was different in the july minutes, compared to june, is that there seems to be an increased Downside Risk assessment for the second half of the year, particularly in the labor markets. We see a pointing out of the decline in the participation rate, underutilization of labor. So the fed is keeping their options open. We have four more weeks of data and another employment report. Steve, did you learn anything new . You know i from the fed. I thought the split was a little more than i had thought. It was a very symmetrical in the language, maria, when they said the members shouldnt do something now, and a few members think we should. It tells me there are questions about what to do in september, and it makes me think september is less likely than i had thought and maybe less than 50 possibility, unless the data improves. One of the things i learned is the fed is more concerned about low inflation than i thought they had quite an interesting and robust discussion about it. No particular conclusion. But a substantial part of the committee is concerned about low inflation here. Yes. Gee, they may be backing away from september, maria. Yeah, weve been saying that. Yes, we have. Rick, weve been watching the 10year, as i am sure you are, it popped, and its holding unlike the stock market which came back from its lows. Absolutely. And not only that. You know, lets just put some real tight numbers on it. The current high yield closes for 10s and 30s are all within the last week. And its 2. 88 in 10s, at 2. 86. Its 3. 90 for 30s, at 2. 89. But were at 1. 61 in 5s. Thats the highyield close. But not from last week. Thats from july 5th. And the yield curve movements made that in many regards, according to traders, the true canary in the coal mine. If rates are going to go higher, maybe the green light for that will be how we close today with regard to that 1. 61 benchmark highyield close for 5s, and the treasuries havent backed down. So im not sure that the minutes are changing the notion that a managed Interest Rate may overshoot the old metrics of 2 above nominal gdp. Lindsey, go ahead. I think the overall tone from the minutes was patience. A waitandsee. We have four weeks of data and an unemployment report that will be the key, deciding factor in whether or not they of taper in september. As steve pointed out, theres that increased risk now that were not going to see any change in purchases in september. Well, what about this eye de lindsey, i wonder if you could make go ahead. I was just saying, i wonder, lindsey, even if you have the data in hand, is it enough to provide the kind of confidence and Comfort Level that the fed would want to begin the tapering process, and before you answer that, i think its interesting to think about how the fed views the first taper movement. Does it move view it as an isolated movement or something thats part of a process . If its part of a process, i think the fed is going to be really sure about the outlook for the economy before it does it. If its a oneoff, then it can adjust as it goes forward. I think it would provide more volatility to the market if it was a oneoff. I think theyre going to want to keep this concurrent, smooth process. I agree. I dont suspect theyll do a oneoff. If theyre ready to go, theyll start to go. What about the idea thats being floated on the floor here that maybe they start with what theyre calling here affectionately tapering light, maybe they start with a reduction of 10 billion per month to begin with, just to kind of get everybody accustomed to the idea here, steve. Look, heres the problem with that, is if the fed is well aware of it watches cnbc, it sees how the market reacts, it understands that the market will not take a single incident as an isolated incident. It will begin the price in what they call the terminal point, where does the thin end up . As Dennis Lockhart from atlanta said a week or so ago, they better be ready for the market to put the pricing in if its going to do something now at the beginning, even a taper light, without the right language on the backside, would cause the market to bring forward future tightening. You really have to wonder the motivation for a 5 billion, 10 billion cutback. Either the economy is strong enough, or its not. 2 20. And the earnings have decelerated. Profit growth lower. So add that to the Overall Economic story of an anemic pace thats stuck in neutral. Before we go, rick, we just had an analyst on, maybe you heard him, talking about his concerns about yields, you know, in asia and elsewhere, and how theyve been going in a direction that he feels theres a bubble building over there that could be bufr burst by the fed beginning to taper. What do you think . I think that bubbles already in the process of bursting. I think those comments are about three weeks late. Ha. So. Much like the minutes, as they were released today. Much like the minutes. Thank you, guys. Thank you. Thanks, everybody. Well done, lindsey. Oh, its mine. Here we go. Its 40 minutes left in the trading session here. What were watching, also, is whether the fed the dow closes below 15,000 for the First Time Since july 3rd, and whether that has any meaning or not. I know the traders watched the s p more than they watch the fed. But it could mean something here. Round numbers. It creates upset in sentiment sometimes. Meanwhile, u. P. S. Delivering bad news, informing worker it is will not provide Health Insurance to working spouses that can get insurance on their own. And Marcus Lemonis is back with us, and he thinks u s u. P. S making a mistake. More after the break. Stay tuned. In todays markets, a lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. A quarter million tweeters is beare tweeting. And 900 Million Dollars are changing hands online. Thats why hp built a new kind of server. One thats 80 smaller. Uses 89 less energy. And costs 77 less. Its called hp moonshot. And its giving the internet the room it needs to grow. This is gonna be big. Hp moonshot. Its time to build a better enterprise. Together. Time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. To update our status without opening an app. To have all our messages in one place. To browse. And share. Faster than ever. Its time to do everything better than before. The new blackberry q10. Its time. Im kind of confused. You didnt mine to throw up all over the bottle. The pry mere bottles scream mass market to extreme. You mean its because its not your idea . I dont give a crap what it looks like. What i care about is it sells, and that isnt selling. No company is about one person. My business would be better without me on some days, because i get in the way or i micromanage or control things. Sound familiar . Your feedback isnt any more important than anybody elses. Were a team, well function together, but we are going to make a change. That was last nights episode of the profit. Was Marcus Lemonis able to turn around the allnatural cleaning supply company. Marcus joins us now. Hi there. The company turned around, i made 500,000 investment. The business, it did 500,000 last year is already at 1 million year to date. So things are looking up, but change definitely happened. You know, i know its tough love on your part, but you ask the kinds of questions that the owners themselves should be asking themselves. Why dont more entrepreneurs do that . I mean, why dont you ask yourselves those tough questions, really do the soul searching necessary to answer why a products not selling . You know, in fairness, bill, these owners are so deep in the weeds trying to survive, trying to make a buck, that they really lose sight of the bigger picture. And it takes someone like myself to come in and ask those questions. Its hard for them. And theyre really doing a lot of jobs in one day, five different jobs in one day. So did you make a profit . We will make a profit, maria. Im confident this business will end up being a four to fivetime return for me. Already out of the gates, the business has doubled. So im feeling really good about it. Good stuff. What about healthcare . Lets shift gears for a moment, because we just reported that u. P. S. , of course, a huge employer, is set to remove thousands of working spouses from its medical plan. If they are eligible for coverage elsewhere. This would be for nonunion, white collar workers. University of virginia doing the same thing. Both blaming rising expense of the president s healthcare legislation. Whats your take on this . Well, im doing some of the same thing in my own business. I only have 6,000 employees. But, you know, i want to be clear, i think in u. P. S. s plan and uvas plan, it doesnt affect the children and it only applies to the spouses who have the ability to get healthcare somewhere else. Right. If they dont, they will remain covered. Exactly. In the case of my business, ill be doing the same thing, but, you know, the real question for me is how do they audit whether they have coverage or not, how do they audit the process . Thats more cumbersome than not. Its a big deal. We dont want people on our plan that have the ability to get insurance somewhere else. We just dont want it. Youre talking the talk, because can you blame them, they want to find ways to cut costs. I mean, that is a huge cost if they have to keep them on their books. Well, bill, i see it more as a way to put the burden of expense where it belongs. If your spouse or domestic partner has a job somewhere else, where healthcare is provided, we really want to rest that burden in the business that it belongs on, not all on my business or u. P. S. s business. We want to put it where it belongs. I think taking care of the kids and taking care of the unemployed spouses is probably getting, i dont want to say overshadowed, but i want to make sure we make that clear. Doesnt it raise the cost of healthcare for a family . You have two different plans now. It does raise the cost for the family. You know, in the case of my business, i actually do healthcare a little differently, maria. The amount that the employee pays is based on how much they make in my business. So its a little different for me. If somebody makes 30,000 a year, and they have two kids, ill subsidize 90 of those healthcare costs. If they make 100,000 a year, im going to subsidize 10 of the costs. With the new plan, it will raise costs a little bit. I dont know how companies will be able to compete by having all of the expenses on their own books. Yeah. So we were just talking about during the commercial, an avalanche of Companies Making the same announcement, dont you think . I do. It will be whoever pulls the trigger first. Because i think youre going to see Companies Start to fall in line. Earlier today, my cfo called me, he had read an article and said, you know, is it time for us to go . And the reality is, everybodys going to pull the trigger at the same time. For me, its important to make sure that the spouse has the time to get on somebody elses plan. You cant just move on to your plan tomorrow. Theres kind of an Enrollment Period and things of that nature. We want to do it in a systematic way where the employee is caught with nothing. It occurred to me you may be employing somebody whose spouse works for u. P. S. And youll be paying their healthcare soon. Thats right. Right . Thats right. We dont want to do that. No Company Wants to do that. Exactly. Marcus, good to see you. Good luck with next weeks program, as well. Thanks, guys. You bet. Tune in every tuesday for a new episode of the profit. 10 00 p. M. Eastern and pacific time right here on cnbc. All right. Lets keep talking about u. P. S. Shares up about 40 in the last two years. And while that may sound good, its actually lagged the dow transportation average by a considerable margin. So will u. P. S. Deliver profits to your portfolio Going Forward as it does work to cut costs in areas like employee healthcare . Lets talk numbers on u. P. S. On the technical side, with ennis, with risk reversal, and on the fundamental side, mark with the oxford club. Good to see you both. Ennis, whats the chart look like to you . When we look at really longterm chart, we see a reason for concern. We leave the 10year weekly, the end of 2004, u. P. S. Made an alltime high around 89. This year, we actually breached that level to the upside in july, made a new high around 91. But since then, its failed. Its a failed longterm breakout, which has added significant since it was an important longterm level. I think that failed breakout is reason for resistance Going Forward. Im a selling of the stock. You wouldnt be buying it. Okay. All right. Mark, what about you . If you would go with a stock of the transmorts, do you go with one of the leaders or the laggards like u. P. S. Here . No, i would not go with u. P. S. I mean, what can brown do for you . I dont think very much in your portfolio. The stock is expensive. Trades at 22 times book value. 16 times cash flow. And if you compare it to its main rival, fedex, its very expensive across every valuation metric. And it has way more debt and debttoequity. Its got much worse operating margins than fedex. Its about half the operating margins of fedex. Fedex is a stronger performer from Earnings Growth expectations standpoint. Fedex is cheaper and has much better expectations. I would not own u. P. S. Here. I would just add that fedex chart looks better, making the alltime high and hold it for the last six months. Dont you get nervous when you say the same thing, neither one would buy u. P. S. . Sometimes great minds think alike, right . Okay. Well go with that. Thanks, guys. U. P. S. , talking numbers today. Were in the final stretch of trading. About 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds. We have a market lower, down 38 points on the dow. Mean while, homebuilder Toll Brothers should could not be happy with the rates moving higher with all of the talk of tapering right now. Up next, ceo doug yearly will react in a firston cnbc interview. And ken langone will be my entire guest for the 4 00 hour. Well get his take on everything from the fed to the governments actions to wall street to eliot spitzer. Back in a moment on closing bell. Ive been doing a few things for a while that i really love tdd 18003452550 playing this and trading. Tdd 18003452550 and the better i am at them, the more i enjoy them. Tdd 18003452550 so im always looking to take them up a notch or two. 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Tdd 18003452550 open a schwab account and learn how you can earn up to 300 tdd 18003452550 commissionfree online trades for 6 months tdd 18003452550 with qualifying net deposits. Tdd 18003452550 call 18882542600 today. Tdd 18003452550 a little whiplash for investors today, following the sharp selloff, and then a rally. Whats going on, josh lipton . Reporter well, bill, lets start with todays laggards in todays trade. Target, the retail giant, warned its annual earnings will likely be near the low end of its previous forecast. The company anticipating cautious consumer spending. Staples, the Office Supplies retailer, posting earnings and revenue that missed estimates. Weakness in its Retail Stores and international operations. American eagle outfitters issued disappointing guidance for the crucial backtoschool quarter. Also said samestore sales will drop by a mid to highsingle digit percentage in the current quarter. Lowes beat expectations, boosted its fullyear outlook. Google also making headlines today. Holding meetings with the nfl, raising the possibility that it could launch a bid for the rights to the nfls sunday ticket package, which is currently owned by directv. And well end here on Toll Brothers, matched on the bottom line, revenue below consensus, but new orders up 26 . The company says Sales Volumes and Pricing Power both increased this quarter from a year ago. Bill, back to you. All right, josh, thanks very much. Lets talk about a luxury homebuilder, Toll Brothers, reporting a decline in profit of 24 , at 26 cents a share. That did match expectations. The stock, like the rest of the market, has been volatile today. Right now, its up 22 cents to 31. 86. Yeah, with us now is Toll Brothers ceo douglas yearley. Welco welcome, sir. Thanks for having me. How concerned are rates moving higher for the Housing Market from your standpoint . Were okay. Ill take a 4 5 8, 30year fixed, any day of the week. Sheer, its up from the 3 1 2. Yeah, but it will stay there, or i mean, were in a rising rate. The fed hasnt started tapering yet. Yeah. I dont know if it will stay there. It has levelled. In fact, it came back down an eighth of a point just today. Our sales teams are not hearing it from the client. It doesnt seem to be affecting our business. Our buyers are lal different. 20 are all cash. Those that get a mortgage only mortgage about 70 of the house. You know, were in a different price point. So so far were okay, and i think well continue to be okay. Were in the early stages of this recovery, and i just dont see Mortgage Rate movement derailing whats going to happen for us. So what is your biggest headwind right now, doug . . For us, its the ability to deliver the house, because the backlogs have grown so much through great sales, and were managing that through price increases. But we have a number of locations where the next home sold may take as much as one year to deliver, because our backlogs are so big at individual communities. Thats when we raise price. Thats when we manage our business. Through Pricing Power. So thats an issue for us. We have to get more labor back into the industry. Its coming back. Its easing. And then, of course, the other issue, which is always an issue, is finding great land. Were out there hunting for land nationwide. Were seeing some really exciting deals. But its as the market improves, theres more and more capital chasing deals, land is going up in price, and we have to work harder at that. So the backlog that you referred to is really the backlog in demand, not necessarily a backlog in supply, which was the issue a couple of years ago. We just had an overabundance of properties on the market, right . Thats changed. Yeah, the inventory levels are down in almost all of our markets. Prices going up. When i refer to backlog, its the number of homes we sold and our ability to get those homes built and delivered. So when we saw the Housing Starts report last week that showed a 2 decline in Housing Starts for singlefamily homes, but yet we saw the 26 increase for apartment dwellings, i mean, we all talked about the trend that were becoming a nation of renters and fewer people are either unable to afford or choosing not to buy a home right now and instead deciding to rent because the uncertainty about the economy. None of that affects you, is that what youre saying, because youre a luxury homebuilder . Yeah, its very rare that we sell a home to a renter. It does happen in new york city. But outside of new york, its extremely rare. I think those stats suggest that the renters may be bypassing the first home that they own, and they may be moving to the first moveup home, so theyre delaying their decision to become an owner. But thats not our business. Our average house is in the mid600s, and its several steps above that. Whats your expectation for 2014 . How does this play out . I feel really good about 2014. Were going to be opening a whole bunch of new communities. Weve a lot of exciting things happening with the company. You know, were Still Producing as a country just a fraction of the homes that we produced in the good times. A millionfive, a millioneight new homes per year is the norm for decades. Were still significantly below 1 million, and we have a long way to go. I think this is the early stage of a recovery, and were very optimistic about 14. But is there an Interest Rate at which you would start to be concerned . If it got high enough . Oh, sure, particularly if it moved rapidly. But i dont think were going to get to the rate i have in my head, and i dont think its going to happen quickly. And i think the buyers are able to digest the rate. I think the buyers now realize that 4. 7 for a 30year nopoint low is a tremendous rate historically, and i think were fine. If that rate creeps a little bit, i dont see any problem. All right. Well leave it there. Sir, good to have you on the program. Thank you so much. Thanks, doug. Thank you. Well see you soon. Coming up, kay schiller index Robert Schiller will be with us, telling us what he thinks the increase in Mortgage Rates will have, an impact hes seeing. You wont want to miss that. Were heading toward the close. 20 minutes left in the trading session. The selling has intensified here and its entirely possible well close below 15,000 for the First Time Since july 3rd, and it will be the sixth straight down day for the dow, and weve had this 3 desclien. So the selling is picking up here. What a string of losers, huh . Meanwhile, comeback stocks are on the horizon. Citigroup qualifies. Once nearly left for dead, its now up 400 since then. Up next, find out what the financial giant could be on the verge of finally raising its dividend. Speaking of financials, barclays americas ceo skip mcgee reacts exclusively to the feds move and the aggressive moves toward wall street street. Thats coming up, too. Stay tuned. In a world thats changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. All your important legal matters in just minutes. Protect your family. And launch your dreams. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on your side. And this is my home team. This is my large lecture hall. This is my professor. And also my coach. This is my booster club. This is the guy whos graduating ready for a great career in technology. [ male announcer ] in 2012, 90 of Devry University grads actively seeking employment had careers in their field in 6 months. Join the 90 . Learn how at devry. Edu. And experience the connectivity of the available lexus enform, including the es and rx. This is the pursuit of perfection. It was one of the hardesthit bank stocks following the innings collapse, but citigroup has made a comeback, up 230 from that time. A reverse split, right. Yeah, it had something to do with it. Kayla breaks down how far citi has come. Yeah, it has come a long way. It does make it hard to calculate. Everyone is saying from a qualitative standpoint, this is citis year. Shareholders feel the sting of preferred stock conversion that diluted them in 2009. And the financial crisis that loaded up citis Balance Sheet with bad assets, its not a d distant memory. Trimming legacy assets, the banks quietly making strides elsewhere, streamlining head count, and the shares are up 42 . Jeff hart says having him at the helm puts somebody at the top focused on getting returns today. Pandit was focused on building for tomorrow. Tomorrow doesnt look bad either. Hart knows citi is trading at 8 1 2 times next years earnings while the top 100 u. S. Banks are at 11 1 2. Its also trading at a lower multiple to tangible book value, so the stock could rise from here. A slowdown in the emerging markets, though, where citi has a large presence, that would appear to be its achilles heel, but Jason Goldberg of Credit Suisse say it could be a positive, since even sluggish growth in the emerging markets is still much better than the anemic growth here. So it does look like citis still undervalued relative to its peers, and people like mike. They think its a good story. It seems to me the reason to own citi is you want to own the global story. You want to own banking growing all over the world. Thats one reason to own citi, and they still have the international strength. They do. And the consumer, whereas its deleveraging here in the u. S. Still, outside the u. S. , theyre borrowing a little bit more, doing more business with banks. Whether thats a good thing or not, who can really know at this point. The one other then about the Housing Market, Morgan Stanleys betsy grace says, as housing continues to improve, citigroup will be able to sell even more of the bad mortgage assets from its bad bank. That will give it another lift, too. Okay. Kayla, thank you. Citi may be one of the great comeback stories of the year for sure, but seema has a list of stocks that may be beatendown bargains. Over to you. Reporter say its a good thing, because it makes stocks cheaper, relative to what they earn. Now, over the last five days, Energy Stocks have been hit the hardest. Cliff natural resources, marathon petroleum, among others, have lost more than 5 and are trading at what analysts say is now an attractive valuation. Other big losers are in the technology space, but that, too, has allowed valuations of the stocks to come down. Micron tech, cisco, apache. Those are some of the biggest losers over the past week. Keep in mind the dow has lost 700 points since its record high on august 2nd. Back to you. All right, thank you. 12 minutes before the closing bell sounds. We have a market worsening. Art telling us the bias is definitely to the sell side, even though it is small in terms of the volume amount. 86 points lower on the dow. Weve seen the selling materialize here. And that puts us in negative territory for the month, as well. The dow is now down about 4. 5 from the record high. Steven wood, he thinks that thats creating a great buying opportunity for investors and hell lay out his Investment Strategy next. Also, home depot cofounder ken langone will join me to host the 4 00 hour. Find out if he thinks the market selloff is Getting Started and where he is putting money to work in this environment. Back in a moment. The most Free Research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1second trades. And at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price just 7. 95. In fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, Td Ameritrade, and etrade. Im monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. All right. Welcome back. Our next guest says hes a buyerest recent pullback. Hes joining us now to talk more about it. Steven wood, from russell investments. Hello, steven. Ly. You buy here . Down 82. I think so. Kind of add selectively to the portfolio. I think this will be more of an active management environment. A 4 , 5 pullback in the markets may not be terribly noteworthy. So youre taking the longterm view. Certainly. Even if we get a 10 correction, so another 7 from here, youd be okay . The things we would like, sure, if theyre more on sale. I think the volatility weve been looking for in the market, were beginning to see. It hasnt been as intense as it has been. I remember standing next to you when t. A. R. P. Didnt pass. That was an interesting day. A scary day. Very scary day. We were watching that monitor. Compared to what weve been through, its very normal market volatili volatility. I think the u. S. Will continue to benefit in equity and even fixed income. Looking at europe, still seeing a four handle on Interest Rates in spain and italy. Youre not seeing a lot of systemic stressors in the market. Fixed income and equities are repressing around what will happen in the next couple of weeks with the fed. Anything happened out of the fed today that educated you, changed your mind on something . I know it was a lot more of the same. Yeah. But look the at market reaction. It looks tepid in terms of reaction. Weve gotten the reaction running up into this. So what we saw out of the fed minutes today i think was disagreement of very smart people looking at cost benefit analysis of a certain policy. I would be more interested in jackson hole and janet yellen will be there, i think Larry Summers will not be. What will be the conferences between dr. Yellen, you know, mario dragi, the chairman of other Central Banks around the world, consequences of the taper that will be felt globally. That will be a very interesting conversation theyll be having there, as well. Apparently, by the way, bill, the central banker in brazil just cancelled. Huhoh. Hes not going. Dont know why. I know the central bankers in brazil are upset with the central bankers in the u. S. And the currency statements we know theyre going to taper at some point. Yes. Is there an aggressive rate that would bother you . I mean, that could trouble the stock market . Could send it lower here. The discount rate, 3 , kind of on the underside of that, 3 would be noteworthy. If were south of 3. 5 , were still in a region that wont impact the equity markets overly much. When we start getting to 3. 5 , wed have to reassess the longerterm outlooks, but for now, thats the directional that we have a vested interest in this question. Do you think theyll start tapering in september . I think they want to taper in september. Its very interesting, they say theyre datadependent, but it seems like theyve made up their mind. What kind of data would get them to not taper in september or december . Unemployment still at 7. 4 or something. That would appear not to be the case. Yes. I think they want to look because the equity market or the bond market right now, even if they were to buy at 82 or 85 , given that the treasurys going to issue less bonds, they have to taper down, and just not be 100 of the treasury market. So they might look at the mix between Mortgage Backed as well as treasury notes. But i think theyll taper. I think theyd like to taper. I think they want to have the plumbing in place before chairman bernanke leaves, or at least set up the taper. Were not thinking theyll do it. Not in september. Too soon. Looking at inflation. But also we need to separate what will be an Interest Rate rise from quantitative easing, and those are two very distinct things. So depressing the accelerator but you know the rates are going to go up if they start the process. Everybody will head for the exit at the same time. Dont you . I think it could the move is priced in the market. At 1. 68. Yeah, 120 basis points in a handful of weeks on the 10year. A lot of the movement is already there. Thank you, steven. Good to see you. Well take a break and get the closing countdown. Also, hewlettpackards earnings out in a few minuting. Will it be the lifeline for the market that theyre looking for for tomorrow . Well have instant analysis of the results coming up. And friday, dont miss my exclusive interview with the chairman and ceo of walmart, a big interview coming your way, mike duke on everything from the health of the consumer to the Worlds Largest retailer and how its dealing with the costs of healthcare. Youre watching the closing bell on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Go ahead of you . Go ahead of you . Instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. Congratulations you are our one millionth customer. Nobody likes to miss out. Thats why ally treats all their customers the same. Whether youre the first or the millionth. If your bank doesnt think youre special anymore, you need an ally. Ally bank. 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Also, the 10year yield, that just shot up when the announcement came out about the fed minutes. There it was. We got to 2. 88 at that point. And were back to that level again. Now, steven wood says this is the Market Pricing in tapering at this point. He feels its already in the market. That remains to be seen. Allen valdez, how significant is it to go below 1,650 on the s p and 15,000 on the dow . Psychologically big numbers, especially the dow. The 15,000, thats been the benchmark for a while now. So thats pretty significant. But again, the fed doing a lot of talking, nothing coming out of their mouths new. Just more uncertainty. The market hates the uncertainty, bill. What about the yields going higher here . Youre at twoyear plus yield twoyear highs now. That tells you, yeah, the tapering is coming probably in september. But again, no certainty on that. Again, the yield popping up there. Youre less likely to buy stocks here . Right now, we are less likely to jump in. We were buying on dips, and now were holding back, watching what goes on. All right. Remember he was raising cash there. Well keep an eye on that. Thank you. Thank you. [ bell sounding ] some members of the Td Ameritrade scholarship Winning Group ringing the bell here. Stand by. Hewlettpackards numbers coming up, and it could set the tone tomorrow. Ken langone coming up, cohosting the second hour of closing bell. See you tomorrow. And it is 4 00 on wall street. Do you know where your money is . Hi, everybody. Welcome back to the closing bell. Im Maria Bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. The dow closing lower for the sixth straight session, ending below 15,000. The first time thats happened since july 3rd. Look at how were settling out. The dow giving up about 105 points. The selling accelerated into the close, 14,897. The nasdaq, also weaker by 14 points. Technology rolling over a bit today. A third of a percent lower. The volume very light. Typical for an august wednesday