Biggest bank by market value is saying he would not be buying bank stocks right now. But first our talk of the tape, while this weeks crucial catalyst to the advantage for the bulls or the bears with the s p 500 stuck in a sideways range since midjuly. Welcome to you all. You wouldve thought perhaps on monday of this week with a lot at stake in terms of these announcements, maybe the market would not do much. We are making a little bit of upside progress. What is your read on the action and rather it by implicitly the market is in the soft landing camp . The market right now has been in that soft landing camp. I think at the beginning of the year consensus that we were going to go into a recession, as that has obviously come off as a probability we have had a huge berating. I think unless we see the tenure firm in about 4 1 4, the twoyear firmly above five as we still bounce around those levels i think the market remains in the soft landing. I do think as we get further into the endoftheyear and next year there are still so many cross currents between the consumer about it consumer Balance Sheet running low while at the same time the atlanta that if they we are going to have a close to 6 gdp at the end of the year. A lots of crosscurrents to debate. Right now the market is definitely in the soft landing camp. I do think september or october will still be bumpy. It is working out that way although the bumps havent been all that uncomfortable. Jordan, we mentioned a bunch of those headwinds. You have a potentially disruptive uaw strike, we talk about Student Loan Repayment and then a little bit of stress showing up in the pockets of the consumer. At the same time the economy seem to have a lot of momentum. Maybe it all boils together to be a relatively comfortable growth rates. Of course we have the wall street journal over the weekend pointing out that it seems very willing to keep rates for a while. How does it all net out to you, jordan . You have highlighted a lot of the dynamics pretty well. B entering into a period where the consumer starts to come under pressure, businesses have already done a good job preparing for a pending recession. They have shored up the Balance Sheets. As the consumer potentially comes under pressure you may fee Business Investment picking up. You are now seeing Inflation Reduction Act and chips money flow through supporting the investment spending. Housing cannot really get much worse at this stage. Youre probably thing a little bit of a slight reversal, especially if you get a bit of a reprieve in mortgage rates. While the consumer may be coming under a bit of pressure, you could see other parts of the economy doing okay. That allows growth to slide down to maybe a sub trend pace over the first half of 2024, but we dont dip into a recession. I think that is what most risk assets are hoping for an pointing towards. Markets are trying to balance the risk and thread the needle between a soft recession and a soft landing. That is generally reassuring. Scott, i guess the question would be if you agree markets are largely positioned for that relatively benign outcome how does the riskreward . If the direction of surprise something nastier or more positive . To the earlier point we been pricing in soft landings since the first part of june. The more you run the more you set up for a change of sentiment. I think we have to consider this to a more balanced lens. We are still approaching the peaking of the fad right cycle. Within earnings will continue to show through pretty resilient. I do think it is going to be dispersion in terms of how Economic Impacts are felt. I think all told, i think the balance is to the upside to the end of the year. We are going to fall back on our review of the fundamental underpinnings remaining pretty positive at this point. It is interesting. I think it is pretty standard to say we are late in the cycle. Jordan, as you mentioned, parts of the economy or maybe at a different phase, maybe in the early rebounds phase. How does it all bear on the growth stock leadership . That has still been a relative constant even in a month where you have chop in some of those names. You are seeing Leadership Today with the triedandtrue mega caps. I think on one hand there is a huge market waits. On the other they have this other Energy Source which is ai and other disruptions. I think if you take it ive a whole if you look at Goldman Sachs, i think they have been really good at looking at earnings this year i think earnings next year is 235to 37. The biggest sector for growth next year from yearoveryear is Technology Looking to be present earnings growth. I think that if you parse through and look at the individual names i think that is where you will see topline growth. The other names like apple, apple specifically have been much softer and have really used the bottom line, reducing the earnings per share. I think ultimately as we are at the higher end of the range you want to see with these big mega caps, that revenue number start to actually improve. Otherwise, i think those individual names will be fairly valued over the next 36 months. Scott, i know youve done some work on the growth versus value dynamic and why there is more resiliency, but also how the companies themselves maybe not as vulnerable to a higher yield environment. You mentioned they have huge piles of cash in which they are earning 5 on. It offsets some of the evaluation in effects of higher yields. I guess what we are suggesting is the shock to the system was from last year. As we moved to a longer discussion point there is an element that may be supportive of the growth side valuations. To your point, our growth cluster is 53 cash to debt. That is much higher. What ends up happening is these companies have done a really good job of extending maturities and low rates. They have exceptionally strong cash generation capabilities. We think as you look forward to a higher possibility these Companies Might actually surprised folks by proving resilient on the evaluation side. All of this sets up for what we they will be a really important story going into next year, the very strong Free Cash Flow continuation on this side of the market. Almost every evaluation metric now versus history make stock look relatively expensive except for Free Cash Flow yield. There does seem Something Different about the way of profitability that might be supportive. Jordan, in terms of the cpi number what do you think the market needs to see and hear . Where do you think this inflation trend fits . The cpi numbers have been coming in relatively close to forecast. We are out of the shock mode that we were in last year. I agree. I do think the headline number is going to bounce back a little more than what markets are anticipating. Oil prices are up more than 20 since the beginning of july. We could see another move higher in the energy component. Im saying month over month numbers six or 7 10 of a increase. By a push the headline figure yearoveryear up to 3 1 2 up to 3. 6 on wednesday. That might not be a welcome development. I think that you will see poor inflation continue to be driven down eye airline fares as well as shelter. Shelter has got to start deflating for us to get that meaningful move into some of those core inflation numbers. In fact, i think over the balance of the year we could be at an environment where the headline bounces between 3 3 1 2 , while core marches down closer toward the fad target. I think the markets will take this report in stride. We will need to see the cpi data on thursday as well as retail sales. Obviously a lot of the engine of growth so far has been consumers and retail sale will give us an uptodate look on how consumers are spending. There is no doubt about that. Bryn, i need to get you on tesla. The stock responded. I always think that is the first test. It is one thing to have a bullish longterm call and another to see if the market embraces it. I am just wondering what you think about the prospects for this Company Getting revalued to whatever degree it is still value as a car company, which is still arguable, whether this all makes sense . First of all the analysts does great work. I think he has a lot of credibility. Two, dont forget if you look at the Goldman Sachs hedge Fund Shortlist i believe tesla is number one. I think you have a credible analyst coming out with a rewriting on the potential to create efficiencies within the business and all of a sudden you have a short squeeze. I think it is definitely an amplified return because of that have a short position. I think ultimately tesla is a hardware company. They make cars. Very expensive and heavy manufacturing. In addition they have always talked about ai. There is no possible way you are going to remotely have self driving unless you have core competency. Tesla has talked a while and presented it before about the efficiencies and the dollars you can create. I think you are now having an analyst dig in and agree that this could create real value longterm. I think ultimately today is more about shortcoming. Shorting tesla has been the consistent widow maker trade for years and years. While that is true in aggregate value, just because it is a huge market cap. It is less than one days worth of volume. To me it has to be people getting excited correctly or not about this idea which is there is an aws inside of tesla. For me the argument said who says it is not onstar . We dont know if this will be a market stream that we want a huge valuation on. I dont think you can remotely compare gm and tesla at all. I also think you have Walter Isaacson book coming out tomorrow which is going to create even more friendly. Elon is an innovative. I am just saying, i do think you have a short squeeze. I think you have a credible analyst. I just think you constantly have to is giveandtake about tesla versus fares. Ultimately we probably go back to the margin story when their earnings come out next quarter. Maybe the stock sells off going into that. Without a doubt. We have seen many terms of this whole bear cycle. It was a 281 stock not that long ago. I do want to get to how you bring things down to a bottom line in terms of how investors should be positioning. We talked about how the market seems to be position for something relatively friendly. Do you think that is truly going to be what we get . I think tactically and, when i say tactical im thinking over the next 36 months. Im looking at a 50 50 split. I think the riskreward by owning a duration in an environment in which inflation continues to moderate. Obviously the atlanta fed gdp tracker calling for a booming growth in the third quarter. Especially in the labor markets when you look at nonforeign payroll growth now down to about 150,000 per month. You balance that out, maybe the fat stays on pause. I do think november is due for another hike. Next year they are going to be cutting rates. I do think there is scope for yields to move lower and that means bond prices will be higher. In that environment you get the other 50 stock good for valuation. I think it will be a little bit choppy over the next couple of months. I think growth will lead the charge once the fans signaled a pause to a potential cut. After that the fed is not going to zero. You are going to want a good balance. I think of the beginning of next year that is when i am flipping back to the 6040 or maybe 7030 split. Got you. Jordan, we wont make you answer for your bosses views on the bond market or anything. Good to talk to you scott and bryn, you as well. Thanks very much. As i was mentioning jamie diamond sounding off on the regulatory headwind along with taking yields are going to be going a little bit higher. I will be hardpressed to find a bank ceo who is not lamenting. Dimon spoke a short while ago. The conversation quickly moved to the topic of regulation which dimon calls usually disappointing. He says that a rules risk moving more business instead of the regulating sector and widens the gap. He jokingly polls hypothetical question about what regulators think is higher Capital Requirement meaning for bank investors. Honestly, do they want banks to be investable again . Love, i think we are going to navigate. Obviously some laughter there. Since details were reviewed the six largest banks have traded lower part due to concerns of profitability, moving business outside the traditional banking sector. Weve seen it already with private credit, bridges and the like. It is a real thing. For sure. The market has definitely taken at the heart. On the other hand for regulars just answer the initial point, it is not really in their mandate to make the stocks investable. They want the system to hold together okay and ultimately you want them to be viable and make sure shareholders do not lose everything. They dont necessarily want to ensure huge profitability. I think the question is do they want no bank to fail ever . In which case higher Capital Requirements, you need to do something other than increase the Capital Requirements to ensure that. He and others have really pointed to what is the problem that they are ultimately trying to solve . As we saw with Silicon Valley bank it wasnt those that were necessarily those that were the most capitalized. It was the middle tier matt that were not subjected to the greatest extent of regulation that d is the ultimate failure. Those were the ones also subject to these rules. The big fix, those systemically important banks, they held up fine. They held up fine. It is almost like the destiny of it is kind of the way they have been treated. On the other hand regulators not going for the potential fixed or the increased concentration allowing a bunch of mergers. It seems there is some ambivalence. And that is creating a challenge, especially for the super regionals that are really in that spot b too big to merge with others, but too small to really absorb some of these requirements. A lot of this requires bigger risk controls, more in the way of capital buffers. All of these things affect their Balance Sheet. Merging could be a solution, but they are not able to do that in this current environment. Seemingly trapped in the middle as often is the case. Leslie, thanks. Up next, we are less than 24 hours away from apples latest product event with the new iphone and possible price hikes expected to take center stage. And that leads us to our question of the day. We are live from the new york stock exchange. You are watching closing bell. Young lady who was, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. She had a lot of questions when she came in. I watched my mother go through being a single mom. At the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. And so once the client knew that she was heard. We were able to help her move forward. Your client wont care how much you know until they know how much you care. What do you see on the horizon . Until they know uncertainty . Or opportunity. Whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. Drawing on deep expertise across the worlds public and private markets in pursuit of longterm returns. Pgim. Our investments shape tomorrow today. Welcome back. Qualcom shares a higher today after a new agreement with apple. They will continue to supply apples with chips until 2026. The licensor stays the same and shows apple still have figured out how to make those chips. You can see the stock have given up earlier highs. There are two possible reasons. The terms of the new deal are similar to the last. Some suggest apple continues to get favorable pricing. Secondly, apple is still working on its own modem chips. That means in two years they will get it right and there goes the largest customer. For now the two are putting aside their differences. I say their differences because there were losses back in 2017 or apple ditching qualcomm for intel. The current deal right now will last until 2026. Even in 2026 qualcomm says it will provide 20 of apples chips. Not 100 , raising concerns about exclusivity. Got you. Maybe a reprieve for qualcomm, but not fully in the clear. Thank you very much. Tomorrow apple will hold its most important launch event of the year. It is expected to unveil the new iphone 15 and apple watch models. Joining me now to discuss is tim. What do you expect of the product launches and how much will this move the needle . One of the storylines have been how the upgrade cycle has been smoothed out over time. What do you expect from this generation . Thanks for having me. In general we are looking at this cycle that we will hear about tomorrow. We think there will be some iterations around design, the usual battery, camera, processor and things like that should get better. I think a lot of the discussion will come around two things. One, pricing. We do think given some of the new technology and inflation that we will see increased pricing. Second will be availability. Number one is weakening demand, by number two we picked up supply chain issues. We do think availability might be a little bit of an issue that people might read into as far as how demand is going for the new cycle. What do you think the Price Sensitivity really is for the higher end phones . Are they pushing the limit . Do they feel like installment plans mean people will get the new one when it is out there . I think apple has proven a lot of industry folks longer over the year by showing the have strong elasticity. On average i think they are up 4 or 5 per year for the last decade. That normally did not happen in the smart phone world. They are proving the power of the ecosystem. However, what that does on the fringes is impacting man. I think for the core base of apple fans out there that like to get the new products they will pay up. When it comes to competing for that be a [ cheers ] market there are some higher end android phones that might be cheaper. I think over time we do think that somewhat limits the Addressable Market if they keep moving upmarket. In reality it has worked for them. They have been able to push forward. This might be a little more dramatic given the macro backdrop we are in. The stock has performed even with this whole back. It is up almost 40 this year. That is without any consensus or expectations of earnings growth. It is unclear how fast it will go next year even with services and things like advertising doing well. How do you view the stock as it is positioned . It is a little puzzling. We are expecting to see december down revenue yearover year. Our modeling goes back 20 years and that hasnt happened in the last 20 years. We are in uncharted territory. We are picking up a little more caution if you look at what is going on in china. There have been some competitive phone launches and we have just seen a lower sellthrough. We think the man is a little bit of an issue. We are on the sidelines and showing a little more downside. Also, we did talk about this googleapple case that is going live tomorrow at the department of justice. We do still see real risk to some of those line items in the service business, which obviously gets apple the enjoyment it has today. You are referring to the case where google pays apple and or some to be the default on iphone. How do you think that plays into this thesis . It is very difficult to forecast what will happen in a case like this. There have been two places, europe and india on android, not ios, where the government has said it is not allowed to have the payment for default browsers. We have seen some governments make moves on this. It is a highstakes game. We think it is 20 billion of revenue. To apple it is pretty much all profit, 10 of their revenue. Of course that is a cost item for google. There are a lot of moving parts here. Maybe apple wants to do their own advertising and monetizing search themselves. That might be something in the future that they vertically integrate to. For now this partnership is a meaningful one for both parties. Any risk to it is material to Apple Service numbers. Even for apple 20 billion is a lot of money in a given year. Tim, appreciate the time. Straightahead, green shoes starting to sprout . Why a top technician is flagging three charts and the key levels that investors need to know. He will make his case coming up next. Opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. Its raising capital to help companies change the world. Opportunity is making the dream of Home Ownership a reality. And driving the world forward to a Greener Energy future. 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Stock in the green across the board. Our next guest said there may be some Downside Risk ahead for the s p along the long and widening wrote to 4800. Lets bring in the chief Technical Strategist at micro risk. John, if you think ultimately it could be a long and winding road that is basically the old alltime high. The question being is do we have to have further pullback . What is the Current Evidence suggesting . Thanks for having me on. What i am seeing right now is 4800 is approximately where i think the s p should get to by the end of the year. The primary green shoot that im saying besides trends being positive, from a very simple standpoint, while in place since the october bottom. The trend is positive, but now we are finally oversold. Were going to get a pullback. Now we are oversold with only 30 above its 50 day moving average. That should be oversold enough, assuming we are still in a bowl market. Exactly. These are the kinds of conditions that are pretty good entry points or places to find the dip. The question is how do you get the icing your favor when you do see signals of late cycle conditions developing . Right, if they mosaic. If equities lived in a vacuum i think it is a relatively easy call. It is looking more at the macro that makes things a little more challenging. The dollar is too strong, the rates are too high. What is interesting here is the volatility is well behaved. The dollars are going the wrong way, but they are not explosive moves yet. That is a good reminder. Last year the extreme market volatility was something the stock market could not really come to terms with. I know that you also have work about what happens after the final rate hike in a cycle. What does that mean for the current moment . Typically what happens after the fed is on hiking rates, the equity market have a tailwind for about seven months or so. On average around seven months after the final hike is when they start cutting. If i do my math really simply i think that gets us to about february where the markets should start to wobble a bit. If we look at data going back to 1929 were we include higher Interest Rates regimes, it is only about a two month window where the markets have a tailwind that is kind of right where we are. When i go ahead and look at where the dollar is and where the rates are and now this technical green shoot i really do think wednesday is going to be a huge catalyst for the market for the rest of the year. Basically anything deeper its going to start signaling to us maybe we are just in a cyclical bull. Okay. Maybe it can actually be a swing factor on wednesday. Quickly on the dollar, you mentioned it going in the wrong direction, although it is pulling back. The us dollar index poll today. Asian countries trying to defend their currency. How is that situated . The dollar pizza late last year. We are going to continue to push lower. It is a longerterm downtrend. To be honest with you the rally since july has been a little bit too strong for my comfort. Do note where it is. While it is a strong raid of change the trend is still intact. We really have to see a break above that 106 level. That would either me the dollar put in its low and it will make new alltime highs. And maybe we need to extend this rally to the 110 area. The way im seeing things that would perpetuate this time in equities. 4300 is an important support never otherwise we have to look at an even wind your road. This 4300 area if keys to hold over the next week or so. It seems like a pretty delicate balance. John, thank you very much. Good to catch up. Up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the clothes. The smuckers jam and twinkies sound like game match made in smack have them. The merger is worth billions. I explained next. Your record label is taking off. But so is your sound engineer. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire 17 minutes until the closing bell. Lets get back to christina for a look at the key stocks to watch. And that stock is carvana, after its Credit Rating was updated. S p still have a negative outlook think the capital structure remains unsustainable due to a weaker earning profile. Shares are up about in half right now. And now for the full story. Smuckers being purchased for 34. 25 per share in a cash and stock deal valued at around 5 billion. Hostess hits an alltime high. Still up 20 right now. Wouldve thought twinkies were this valuable . Over 5 billion the merging of these two. A lot of people probably place great value on those things. Thank you, christina. Your last chance to weigh in. We asked how apple stock react to tomorrows iphone announcement . Will bring you the results right after this break. sirens [due at target in 5 ] copy that. Make a hard left down the alley. Networks got you covered. [please confirm requesting backup. ] changing route. Go. Roadblock ahead. Back up, back up. Reverse reverse next level moments, were 30 seconds out. Need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry ] coming through or 3, lets go. The network more businesses choose. Transplant received. At t business. Lets get the results of our question of the day. A very balanced set up going into that news. Up next, a major test as instacart kicks off its roadshow with a newly discounted valuation. Plus oracle set to report quarterly results. A rundown of what to watch. That and much more when we take you inside the market. Doors can lead us toward whats important. Your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. By working with you on a retirementincome plan designed to balance growth and guaranteed income. Because doors were meant to be opened. Power e trades easytouse tools, like dynamic charting and riskreward analysis help make trading feel effortless. And its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. E trade from Morgan Stanley. With powerful, easytouse tools, power e trade makes complex trading easier. React to fastmoving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you wont miss an opportunity. E trade from Morgan Stanley we are now in the closing bell market zone. Julie is here to bring down the deal. The latest on instacart as it prepares to go public. And what to watch out of oracle earnings after the bell. Welcome to you all. Julia, bring us uptodate on the deal announced just hours ago. Jessen time for monday night football the tb bundle will live on. It will deliver a huge boost for the reach of disney bust. Disney plus. Charter will pay a whole selfie for all video subscribers. They are also paying for espn plus for Spectrum Plus video subscription myers. Spectrum will offer it and pay disney. Plus, charter says it will sell all of disneys services to its broadband only subscriber base. Sources described the deal as a winwin. Guggenheim writing it positions disney and charter to drive value amid the shift toward streaming in a digital future. You mentioned the bundle lives on only slightly exaggerating the stakes. It did occur to me all this month it was both the Traditional Media Companies that provide these networks as well as the cable distributors. Both stocks were on the weaker side and underperforming. It feels as if the market felt there could be a loselose outcome if it went a different way . But also the question is that people want to watch live sports where they going to go . Disney has said it is working to bring its espn channel as a flagship direct to consumers. Once that happens everybody understands that is going to change the game. I believe that is really what precipitated the heated nature of this battle between charter and disney. They figured out a way to effectively bundle together the linear experience and streaming options to make sure charter is a distributor of both. If you are paying for paytv espn will still be a part. It would seem to be a template as everything i guess blends back together in some fashion. Julia, thank you very much. Instacart, we have some ballpark numbers as to what the valuation might end up being. What does it all mean . It speaks to this idea of valuation disparity. The ballpark number is 10 billion. Consider a few years ago in the car did a funding round in the private market is valuing it at nearly 40 million. This is a far cry from that and means a lot of other startups that may be in the pipeline are going to have to come to reality. Instacart is taking this huge down route and they may need to respond, especially if they put off funding or an ipo. Whether or not this could flood the floodgates that is up for debate. You will look at startups that have not taken that. By the way is not as instacart. It is a Software Company that is also expected to ipo below its last valuation. The private market arm is a different scenario. It is a little different because it was owned by softbank. Investors and other companies will be putting all of it together for clues. You have here the ipo etf, but also based on where that peak valuation was given to instacart if you look at publicly traded Companies Like doordash, shopify or esty public valuations are down just about as much. Maybe this is mirroring that reality. I think bankers would say this is why you go public so you get this realtime feedback. In the private market you dont have to mark down valuation. It is whenever you raise another round of money. Or as in the car did, they did it themselves internally. You are seeing the private market flag because a lot of ceos want to believe the company is still worth more, maybe not the peak of 2021, but that is why if the card is so interesting. It is nowhere near the peak. The other dynamic if it has been a pretty successful run a company for a while. You have employees that have a ton of equity. It seems like there is an imperative to create some liquidity. It could be kind of painful along the way. Absolutely. This is one of these companies that was born shortly after the 20082009 financial crisis. Is sort of miss this chance. You can debate whether not that was a good or bad thing. You take a look at his closest competition, doordash. It is trading at a premium to what this valuation implies for instacart, about 3 1 2 times ev to sales. That is lower than even uber which was at three times. All right. Thanks very much. Christina, oracle has a slight to itself today. Growth expectations are pretty high going into tonights print. Its latest lumping us with the bigwigs. Oracle is a much Smaller Player than the guys listed. Making the short list is a huge testament. The vip access, especially during this current shortage will only help its cloud segment, which has been growing 50 for several quarters. The oracle cloud instacart business the same as a big driver of growth. Recent commentary suggests back Office Software spending remains pretty strong which should bode well for oracle. Overall the valuation is 22 times for pricetoearnings, which seems not overly demanding. Shares are up about 55 year to date. The majority of analyst still think this company is a vibe even with this runup in the stock. 22 times earning if maybe not demanding. But this reminds me of a little bit of a broad, or a dell. An old tech player that has some exposure. The question is whether the market will give them more credit for having that leverage. The dell comparison spot on, especially as oracle tries to take legacy customers and move them into the cloud. That process has not been smooth. But the business i just told you about seems to be the future breadandbutter to do so. Christina, thanks very much. As we head into the clothes we have the s p 500 still sitting on two thirds of 1 . It is a very topheavy move. Tesla, amazon, microsoft and metadelivering a majority of that. Ringing the bell today at the new york stock exchange. Thats going to do for closing bell. We have the scorecard on wall street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. We are moments away from oracle earnings. Will break down those results as soon as they hit the wires. The chamber of commerce ceo and how regulators are targeting businesses and how that is impacting the economy. Anywhere exclusive interview with the ceo of northrop grumman