Partners at purple strategies. We look at the seven Southern States that vote on the republican side in the president ial race on march 1. We survey populations of likely primary voters from those states. Heres what we found. With 37 , a whopping 17 points ahead of ted cruz and marco rubio who are tied at 20 . John kasey kahne ben carson are in the single digits. What stands out to you most about the poll . At theonald trumps king south. Hes strong not just in the horse race, but the voters dont consider him the most conservative and yet they still give him the lead. Attempts to paint him as less conservative will not have an effect on his standing. He beat the individual candidates headtohead. That undermines the argument, donald trump over ted cruz. , 4844. Io john if you look at this poll, and its hard to poll a whole bunch of states together. Its a very complicated business with all the Southern States. Its true what you said, its not just that he is ahead by so much, its the ways in which he. S ahead Donald Trump Holds a commanding lead over these other guys. That ted cruz could pick up a state, marco rubio could get a bunch of delegates and some of the states. Its hard to escape the conclusion that donald trump will be the big winner in the south on march 1. Its a very conservative part of the country. Apparently they like new york found use here in the south or they are willing to overlook new york values because trump is so strong here. It fleshes out the strength of his campaign in the south. It means hes in line to have the best day of anyone on tuesday, maybe by a lot. Obviously the implications of that are quite striking. You know how strong he is in some places outside of the south. It gives more balanced of the argument thats been emerging over the past few days. 1 he could come close to putting away the nomination. Here in houston for the next Republican Debate hosted by cnn. The final meeting the candidates will have facetoface before those 11 states vote on tuesday. Somed trump can expect texas heat tonight. His closest rivals have started going hard at the republican front runner, warning voters about the risk of a trump presidency. Speakingok at ted cruz on fox news last night and marco rubio talking at a rally today here in houston. The question right now is how do we prevent nominating a candidate who loses the general election, or for that matter if donnell wins the general election . Who knows what he would do as president. Donald trump said hes not going to take sides on israel versus the palestinians. There is no such thing as an honest broker in that. Authorityinian teaches fiveyearold kids that its a glorious thing to kill jews. We will not be in impartial advocate when it comes to israel. We are going to be on israels side when im president. All five candidates will have a lot on the line but the willn focused on the most be ted cruz. The debate is being held in his home state, which even his supporters say he must win on tuesday to continue with a plausible chance at the nomination. What could any of them do that would be a game changer on the stage tonight . Seen ted cruz go toe to toe with donald trump and take him on in certain debate. Im thinking of the one we had here in charleston back in january. Ted cruz brought his chops to that battle. Marco. King more at a lot of Establishment Republicans want to know if he has what it takes to go toe to toe with donald trump and if not take him down, at least battle him to a draw. We have not seen that from marco rubio. If you did that tonight it would be potentially a game changer. John im looking at two big things, if anyone has a temp a lengthy moment. Pawlenty moment. I think donald trump will come back, the question is can you be donald trump at a moment of strength . In the. To best him no one has done that yet at any of these debates. That will be the question, whether they can make donald trump falter on the debate stage. That would be a game changer. Keep your i on john kasich casey. This is a moment for him. Hes always in danger of becoming an asterisk and people ignoring him. Good in thehim some states he needs to win like michigan and ohio. Donald trump, the most entertaining draw at this moment. The new york billionaire finds himself in a match with a multimillionaire who was also a 2012 republican nominee. Thats right, mitt romney is back. Take the next 40 seconds and catch yourself up. The years 2012. Mitt romney is the republican nominee. 2016, mitt romney says we have good reason to believe there is a bombshell on income tax. Mitt romneys tax returns made him look like a fool. He called mitt romney awkward and goofy. He fired back. Show voters your back taxes. Finally harry reid says i cannot imagine mitt romney having the gall to come after anyones returns. I love when we do those things. That is incredible. My question is, why is mitt romney taking on donald trump this way, and will it work . Mark he needs to use his and hesand stature using an issue on which he thinks he has enough credibility , which is the question of scrutiny, to speak out. My hat is off to governor romney. He said all the candidates should put out their returns. He was provocative and saying he thinks there is something in there. No one else in the party has done as much to stand up to donald trump as mitt romney did with this one thing. The fact that hes standing up to him on twitter is more than anyone else has done. It shows you that donald trump is sensitive on this issue. Hes not just letting go. He is attacking back ferociously. Mark i think there some reason whether its political or financial. There some reason donald trump has not agreed to release his tax returns yet. He is still hedge on whether he will do it. I think it is a totally legitimate demand on mitt romneys part. Usede that he shakespearean construction on twitter. Stopu want to try to donald trump, get in the ring for real. John coming up, more from our online poll in advance of super tuesday and what theyre saying about Donald Trumps strength, after this. John joining us to dive into the data of our new online poll , managing director of our partners at purple strategies. Angst for joining us. Lets talk about the methodology. This is an unusual poll for us to do. Its an Online Survey of the totality of this cluster of Southern State voting tuesday. We want to look across the entire geography. This is a region that will basically decide whats happening next in the primary for donald trump and for others. We look at the whole region rather than state i state. Mark how many people did resurvey and how did we find them . And wese an online panel had 1200 plus responses to the survey. We said to this group of southern republicans, if you and choice was donald trump ted cruz or donald trump and marco rubio, who would you choose . It goes after two things. Donald trump reaches in the high 30s as he did in our poll in a four or five weight race, but the ceiling almost disappears when hes in it twoway race. Tested ted cruz versus donald trump and i would and ted cruz one easily and i will. Think the change is based on donald trump having a run of three victories . Is that helping him do better in the head to head . Absolutely. What youre seeing with some of the state polling thats coming out is that when you have the real focus and you had ted cruz spending a ton of time in iowa, he did a little bit better. Time. Eres a lot less Donald Trumps efforts seem to be paying off and the combination of victory plus strategy, he seems to be doing very well. Wen part of the reason talked about how good a poll this is for donald trump, its in terms of what voters saw his strengths of his. Walk us through his traits where he leads other rivals by a lot. I want to go in the other direction and look at where he is behind. He seen as the least conservative and the least committed christian. This is in southern republican primary voters heads, and he still winning. Hes building his coalition on authenticity, or taking from terrorism, and that he can win in the general election. A lot of the conventional wisdom were hearing is not how these folks feel. Really important here is everything we thought we knew about southern republican that they care most about being a conservative and religious christian is being turned on its head here. About rubio and cruz. If im looking at this trade data, what do i see here that gives me some sense of hope . Honestly, not that much. Has donelike ted cruz best when hes been able to out conservative and out Christian Donald trump. As a morehat trump positive vision for the future really makes it difficult. One thing that maybe an opening, its the question of trustworthy. Is considered authentic, i think theres a question about whether people can really trust him to leave. We see some high negatives in some pockets of the population. We asked her upon does respondents to look at what dollar from said about the pope and what the pope said about donald trump. How did that do in our survey . Donald trump did really well against the pope. Think of all the different folks that he has taken on. In this war of words, after hearing the words on both sides about being a true christian, donald trump wins with 64 with the pope just getting 18 in terms of people agreeing with what they have to say. Immigration is a hot button issue. It is telling that even among withlics, a majority sided donald trump on this question. Mark i attributed to the fact that the pope does not have a ground aim. At the totality tothe poll, if youre trying put together a line of attack on donald trump, is there one that comes out of this . They still overwhelmingly support him in the most conservative region of the country. Going after donald trump as being too liberal may not be the way to bring him down, if there is a way to bring him down. The problem right now is too many people are looking at donald trump and thinking there is a Silver Bullet that can take him down. Folks in other campaign say he is on both or not as rich as he says he is. The problem right now is not making a choice. The problem is strategic. To many people are aiming many guns into many different directions. The campaigns cannot coordinate. As soon as one makes leverage against trump, the other will attack them. Its just the notion of a Silver Bullet, like hes not conservative or christian enough. He has been married to many times, he says awful things. None of them work unless there is a concerted, directed effort. It is a coordination problem between the campaigns. Mark you can read all about the poll right now at bloomberg politics. Com. 2016 ad wars, super tuesday style. You can now listen to us in washington dc. We will be right back. John Donald Trumps president ial campaign is currently spending a meager 1. 3 million. Polls show ted cruz with a slight lead in texas. You have to think about all the. Ommercials across america lets take a look at Hillary Clintons adds. Shes running these spots in South Carolina featuring the mayor of columbia, Stephen Benjamin and congressman jim clyburn. Mayor of South Carolinas capital city, but this is my most important job. Im writing an open letter to my daughters explaining why fighting so hard to elect Hillary Clinton. Lets move forward with Hillary Clinton. At think if one were to look at the qualifications of the whoidates and reflect upon can best get us to that place, i think hands down it is Hillary Clinton. Ive been down here for most of this week. The airwaves or awash with Hillary Clinton advertising aimed at African American voter. Shes been a lot of money on these commercials and it looks like shes trying to run up the score here and shove and dagger in Bernie Sanders heart. What do you think about those ads . Mark when a campaigns winning its easy to say the Campaign Manager is a genius. I firmly believe that Hillary Clintons performance over the last week has been as good as its been in the campaign and maybe as good as i have ever seen her. Those at our great. The ads in nevada were great. Her team is doing really well. I dont know why they did not have ads with that much emotion previously. Its all part of a strong messaging operation from the candidate on down. Agree. Totally in every way focused on these key minority constituencies, in this case africanamericans. Morgan freeman voicing those ads. Very strong and creative. I agree with you about all of that. Ad from marcon rubios team carrying in virginia on broadcast television. 36 years ago this nation faced doubt after a failed presidency. It felt like america was in decline and the American Dream felt like it was slipping away. Then we elected a president that inspired us, who believed as we do that americas greatest days always lie ahead. The reaganldren of revolution are ready to assume the mantle of leadership. Mark what do you think of the message of that ad . John i like the optimism and the fact that its not some of the trash talking that donald trump gets involved in. A lot of the images and rhetoric there are little hackneyed and could be run by pretty much any republican president ial candidate since ronald reagan. The best thing about it is the tone and the way they show the candidate. Address both his strengths and weaknesses in a pretty effective way. Of johne ad makers kasich super pac had this doozy going up in vermont, massachusetts, and michigan. Politicians and lobbyists are rushing to crown marco rubio, but National Polls show john casey is the one to beat Hillary Clinton by 11 points, not marco rubio. Gop candidates, only john kasich has the experience to be president. Only john kasich. D. C. Lobbyists wrong . Now, there is a first. John there it is, the incredible shrinking rubio, according to that super pac. What do you think about that at . Mark its the most uplifting music ive ever heard in a negative ad [laughter]. [laughter] john thats all you got for me . Trying touper pac is do what needs to be done to get the establishment vote. John kasich is still playing on a pretty small feel, but it might be picking up. John some of the most eyecatching, im conventional ads of our political careers, that ad is relatively tame by those standards. Coming up, we talked to one of john kasich toss closest advisers. We will be right back. John welcome back to the town they call in manhattan here with me is the former New Hampshire senator and the current director of john kasichs campaign, or at least one of them. John. Whos left in the field . John five candidates but three commoist choices. Crazy, inexperience and john kasich. The path starts march 1. There are a bunch of pro poringsal primaries. Kasich is going to wendell gates in a bunch of states. Then we go to much more favorable territory to him. Michigan, ohio, criticism. Hes within the margin of error in ohio, running far better than marco rubio in florida. If he wins, winner take all in ohio, we have a new ballgame. John why is it that so many are saying its now a threeperson race . It starts with laziness. You know as well as i do the media is kind of lazy. John i know better than you do. They say donald trump has won three primaries now, it must be over. Its not the case. We have only one person left in the race with chief executive experience. One whos cut taxing, created balance and more jobs. Thats john kasich. He did great in New Hampshire, exceeded expectations in South Carolina and hes going to do very well in massachusetts, arkansas, vermont. Even threshold states like tennessee. John endorsements are overrated but after jeb bush got out of the race, and even before, marco rubio has received an enormous number of endorsements. John kasich has gotten some but not nearly the number and the prominence. Where are kasichs friends like Haley Barbour, Chris Christie . Army, or trent lott, john youve had sose those before. Im not being critical of it. Part of narrative seems to be that rubio is now the guy. Thats a nigh now then. Thing. John where are Haley Barbour and Cris Chris Kristi . Hes a governor. Why will the other governors not rallying around him . You take a make a case. Someonest, i dont ever know that hes had a close rhythm with Haley Barbour. Oh, he does. Second, i would say fear. They dont want to be with a winner. They dont want to take a risk. No one wants to jump in and really pick a take on donald trump. But its not about endorsements, its look voters, what voters look for in a candidate and a chief executive. You know as well as ido donald trump dwunlt have the temperament to be commander in chief. He has changed position on issues, thats north the kind of leader we need. Kasich served as ohio in governor, privatizing services, creating jobs, balancing the bunt. He cut taxing, in ohio. Whose taxes has ted crudse cut . Nobody. John its great to be positive about your message but its said he time is overdo for a real effort to stop donald trump. And if so why isnt your candidate doing it . I dont think thats right. Lots of people list the problems with donald trump. Chris christie exposed on national tv how inexperienced, scripted and rehearsed marco rubio is, that he doesnt have the temperament and experience and skills to be president. It didnt help Chris Christie at all. You have to put out a positive vision for moving the country guard and talk about your skills and experience. John kasich has done that. Thats why in states like South Carolina and nevada he has exceeded expectations. John do you think donald trump is clinically characterize or is it just a glib line . I said relative to the temperament you want in a nominee. I didnt see say donald trump was characterize. I said theres only one john kasich in the kasich lain and the others are somewhere else. John how do you think hes going to do in the debate . I think the best way to address the American Public is to talk about the problems we have. National security, how to restore americas standing in the world. John kasich has done that in every debate and hell do it again tonight. Thats what the voters want and deserve. The media wants Something Different mud slinging, name calling and a spectacle and john kasich at every turn has refused to give that to the media and has instead stood up for what the country needs. Leadership, someone who can solve problems and whos done it and thats john kasich. Jim john sononu. Thank you. Up next, the dean of the american Political Press corps is here to school us on the debates and the nomination fights, dan balls joins us after this. John welcome back and joining me now, the chief correspondent to have washington post, dan balz. Thanks for coming by. Dan my pleasure. John where do you think efforts to halt or slow down donald trump stand in advance of the debate . We saw today rubio and cruz being a little bit more outspoken about it. Dan a little bit more. I think well learn more at the debate tonight. I think they still have this question or quamme about whether they really want to get in a oneonone with donald trump before the other is out and before case sick out and theres no insent five for the three of them to get at it at this point. Theyre in a bit of a bind. John the single elimination danger in the coming weeks with ted cruz and kasich. Ted and heidi cruz are spending a fair amount of time in texas. Is there worry they could lose the state . Dan you would assume that they think they have to make sure they nail it down and cant take any chances. If you talk to them, they express confidence about it and beyond texas, they dont talk as if texas is the only place they think they have a real shot at winning on supertuesday but you and i have talked to strategyists in advance of an event where they sound more confident than they are. They know that if they dont win texas, they dont have a path forward. If thats the priority and the question is, is that enough . Thats the other issue when you get influence super tuesday. Lets say he wins texas and donald trump were to win everything else. Then is winning texas alone good enough to keep going . They see march 5 as having a series of states that are favorable to cruz and so theyll have every incentive to stay in after that. Were flying a little bit mind but each of the three has a big test coming up. John when you look at whats happened since jeb bush got out after South Carolina, youve seen more of the accomplishment go to john kasich. Why is it that more of the donors and members of congress and governors havent tilled tilted towards kasich more . Dan its a little bit of a mystery. I think in part they probably think that has a campaigner, hes a more consistent campaigner and has a fuller message that you would take into a general election and that he could conceivably do better in the Latino Community than an angelo candidate would do. You know, they do ignore the fact that he is a firstterm senator without a significant record. Jim is theyve shown no willingness or desire to stop donald trump, which is to me is the number one thing for anyone who would like to the be the nominee. Dan theyre buying into his campaigns argument that when we get him isolated, if we ever do, well be able to take him down. No evidence of that on his part to this point and no compunction on his part to suggest hes really got the strength to do that. Jim as you said, the debate tonight will potentially tell a lot of the story but between now and tuesday, cruz obviously has the most on the line. He has to win here or hes done. Whos got more on the line you think on tuesday, between marco ruocco and john kasich . Dan probably marco rubio because hes the person at this point who is trying to show that he can get closer to donald trump. The kasich strategy is a highrisk strategy, which is kind of pick around the edges on super tuesday and then do something important in michigan as a prelude to ohio. But for ruocco, he cant say im going to wait entirely until florida. Dan whats good enough for him on tuesday, you think . Dan i really dont know. Every week we see somebody claim somebody that seems more than justifiable john is there a state they think they can win on snuse dan i dont know in theres a state they think they can win. Theyve been very careful from the beginning never to say they have a mustwin state. On the one hand its preserved their ability to say we never said were going to win a state. On the other hand, you cant keep losing. Mark trump said i havent got a budget. Its not very much spread over the super tuesday states. He could drop 20 million in texas on tv and try to bury ted cruz. Dan you remember in 2008 on the Obama Campaign they dropped 15 million or 20 million in hove and texas with the goal of ending it and that much money in those two states alone concentrated with you was not enough to do it. Mark Hillary Clinton won them both. Dan i dont think theres enough money you can put in these states. Mark so why put any . Dan maybe he feels guilty and hes reaching the stage of when hes going to have to do more of what conventional candidates do. You have to demonstrate you have some exagsty to do that. Mark i hope he starts traveling with a press corps. That would be nice. Whats the most encouraging things you can see for Bernie Sanders . Dan that he can win a number of states on super tuesday. We go to the next hurdle. Mark dan balz, ill see you at the next debate site. We switch to the democratic side and talk with the South Carolina party chair after these words from our sponsors. Barack obama took more money from wall street than any candidate whos ever run for president. Turned around, passed and signed the dodd frank bill so i think you should be judged on what youve done and im more than happy to put my record against Bernie Sanders. If you look at what caused the great recession, a bill he voted for in 2000 had a greater impact than most of the talk that were now doing so lets get everybody out on the same field. I dont mind being responsive and answering questions but at some point, i want everybody to have to answer. I respect that calm. Can you assure the American People that you didnt say anything in those speeches that would undermine your promise to be tough on wall street and big banks . Absolutely. That was a sneak peek at Hillary Clintons interview with Joe Scarborough from msnbcs this morning. That interview will hair in full in the morning. In the pal melto state, the state party chair, jamie harrison. Jamie, welcome back to the show. Jamie thanks for having me. John so i want to start and i know youre a positive guy and you like to talk about the good things on the democratic side of the aisle. So i want to ask you first, Hillary Clinton has been here a lot over to the runup to this primary. Tell me what you think shes done right in terms of getting the kind of support not just to win but maybe win big here on saturday. Jamie first examine foremost she got the endorsement of jim clyburn, which is really big in South Carolina. Hes probably one of the only democrats that has an established machine in terms of getting out the vote so that was a big win for her. One of the things shes gone done from the start when she decided to throw her hat into the ring again for the presidency. Shes been methodical in terms of building an operation here and not just relying on endorsements from leaders in the Africanamerican Community or the democratic establishment but by going into the communities and having her staff build this grassroots effort. So shes done a really good job doing that but Bernie Sanders has poured a lot of energy and effort into doing that as well. John talk about that a little bit more. I think most of us expected this weaning you would have clinton and sanders this week going after it hammer and tongs all week. After nevada that changed. Sanders is not spending as much time as a lot of people expected. Hes right now in illinois illinois, on his way to minnesota. I was with him yesterday in kansas. Tell me before we talk about what you think he might not have done well, tell me what you think he has done well here to give himself a fighting chance on saturday. He hired some really good staff. He took away one of my staff persons. My deputy executive director crystal spain and used her as one of his political advisors. Hes hired a lot of folks who are known to be on the ground. Grassroots activists. So hes done a really good job on the staffing of his campaign and he has some good people in the legislature that are supporting him. Justice bamberg, representative Terry Alexander so i think hes done as much as he can to come into this race. No one knew who Bernie Sanders was here in South Carolina or very few people knew so he had a steep hill to climb in terms of increasing he is name i. D. In the state. I think hes done a good job. The question is has he done enough . John besides the fact that ers is sanders is not very well known here, why is it that Hillary Clinton has the large lead and all the polling suggests that iknow that sanders had a bill hill to climb. Are there things you think he could have done that she hasnt . Where has haye he made mistakes or come up short . What i was teacher i used to tell my students the most persuasive argument you can ever make is one that shows and not tell. Bernies done a great job of telling us an wall street and inequality in terms of income but what he needs to do to really connect with africanamerican voters and voters in the souft is how he demonstrates, that how he shows that. He need to bring in more anecdotes, start to highlight real people and showcase how the policies that hes for, how they impact the lives of folks. I think if he can do that he probably will connect more with folks, particularly with africanamericans and that could be more helpful for him moving guard into other southern forward into other Southern States. That it seems to me hillary clibblet being here so much this week was an e. To run up the score on Bernie Sanders. One thing i want examined to see more of, bill clinton. Hes here and hell be here tomorrow. Back in 2008 obviously bill clinton had a difficult time in the state and did things that controversial. Do you think theyre keeping him t of the state in order to potentially remind some africanamerican voters of the controversial stuff he did in the last primary or two primaries ago . I dont think so. I think just theyre just strategically using the president. Also ision to these, hes doing fundraising for secretary clinton as well. I think its a mixture of all those things. Campaigns are becoming much more expensive and im four sure the fundraising is a huge component. Jim looking forward to aturday, do you think theres reasonable chance that there could be any real surprise on saturday . I dont mean Bernie Sanders pulling an upset but sanders coming a lot closer than people expect. Do you think thats within in rem of realm of possibility . Im interested in the demgraveragets particularly in the frenl community, whether the young people are voting for sanders and the middleaged, older folks voting for Hillary Clinton. I want to also see the turn outnumbers. Is Bernie Sanders bringing more people than barack obama did . In 2008, 14 of the electorate was between the ages of 18 and 2. So are more young people coming out in terms of Bernie Sanders . Those things i think are interesting because i think thaul play out also in other states. John thank you very much. I get the sense you dont think theres going to be a big surprise on saturday. Coming up,ment who won the week . Well be right back. John we find ourselves at the end of another day so i ask you my favorite question, who won it . Mark mitt romney. Trump struck back, romney struck back again and so far, as elton john would say, hes still standing. John two winners today. Mitt romney but also donald rump who dom name it would poll. Check tout website for our debate coverage and marks comments. Those are key. Mark bloomberg west coming up. See you tomorrow, sayonara. Youre watching bloomberg west. Lets start with a check of your first word news. Apple wants a federal judge to vacate an order that was force it to hack into the iphone of one of the San Bernardino shooters. Apple says the f. B. I. Is seeking dangerous powers for the court. The case may set a precedent for smart phone access. A poll shows republican president ial frontrunner donald trump with a substantial lead in Southern States ahead of next tuesdays super tuesday contest. Trump is backed by 37 of likely primary voters in alabama, arkansas, georgia, oklahoma, tennessee, and virginia. Senators marco rubio and ted cruz are tied at 20 . Navy governor brian sandoval, mentioned as a possible ndidate to replace antonin scalia, told the white house today he isnt interested in the job. An official said president obama doesnt plan on an announcement about guantanamo while in cuba