Strength, but the weakness of the rest of the field, the fact that no one in the party yet has figured out a way to bring him back to earth. I always thought trump would have appeal within the party, but i thought someone would step forward and figure out how to engage in a way that would take him down. John i would say that trump costs strength, the trumps strength, the dynamic with which he says more and more preventively provocative things offensively provocative things, that he could say some of the things he said and have them not hurt him at all, contradictorily make him stronger, it blows my mind. Mark the other surprising thing is Bernie Sanders. It seems obvious now why he has had such a good run. No one else in the field has taken off as an alternative to Hillary Clinton. After watching him for years on cable tv and on the hill, i never thought he would have this ability to communicate a message in a personal way that he has. John i think we were among virtually everyone else in thinking he was a curio candidate, not a joke, but the idea that he would ever give clinton any kind of run for her money we laughed it off. It seems obvious in retrospect, but it seemed obvious pretty quickly once he started to take off. That he could catch fire in that kind of cranky grandfatherly way. It was like, oh, of course, but no one predicted it. Mark what or who was the biggest flop of the past year . John undoubtedly, i would say on the republican side scott walker. The guy who was going to be on paper and incredible candidate. Winning a consecutive number of elections, taking on the union, having conservative credentials. People said he was the front runner for a while and then he just completely collapsed. Mark the other person i think had a horrible 2015 was rand paul. I thought for a time he could win the four first state because he had a niche as not just a libertarian but someone who talked about solving problems like not just immigration but someone who had a sense of the moment of the party and the country, more broadly, unless he stages some huge comeback in the next month, he has become someone barely considered as part of the discussion. Not only the question of could he win, but hes not even getting enough of the vote to affect the outcome. John the assumption was he would start with his fathers backers, but have broader appeal. He has a smaller share of the vote than his father had in 2012. I think it is conceivable he could end up being a less consequential figure than his father who was, in many ways, a bona fide crank. Mark the biggest flop of the year is the republican field, which was touted as the strongest in generations. I said from the beginning it was the most overrated field. I stand by that. It has a lot of people all nice with some strengths, but the notion that this field overall is strong is ridiculous, as manifested by the fact that donald trump, for all his strength, should not be alone at the top of the polls. John and that one of the biggest political facts of the year was the rise of the antiestablishment outsider candidate. Theres no world in which donald trump, ben carson, ted cruz, Carly Fiorina get 60 of the vote if there was any potent one or two establishment candidates. Those guys could not take up as much space as they have all year long. As you know, our nations Political Landscape is an evolving thing. Lets talk about what you think was the biggest change to occur in our political universe in 2015. Mark the absolute inability of the establishment of the Republican Party to have a say, not to be dominant, not to be in control. They dont even have a say. This was a trend you saw with the rise of the tea party and social media, but the establishment went from being concerned about the way things were going to ending the year helpless to stop trump and cruz candidates thes establishment does not want, from ending up as a party nominee. John the whole process has been turned upside down. The Democratic Party is behaving like the Republican Party of old and the Republican Party is behaving like the Democratic Party of old. Theres a little world of bizarro world factor. Although Hillary Clinton has had moments where she has been tested and Bernie Sanders is a surprising strength, the truth is as we come to the end of the year, Hillary Clinton is still the most likely almost certain democratic nominee not certain, but almost and still likely the next president of the United States, and that kind of glide path is not usually how it happens. Mark the other big change is trump magnifying something that has always been true, which people into the year thinking raising big money would be a dominant force in the nomination process. For trump, it has not been. He has barely raised any money, barely spend any money of his own, and he is a dominant force because he is able to go on television, and nobody in this race is able to match his way to drive news however he wants. John there was the idea that the super pac was going to transform the entire process, and so far, they have done nothing to change the contours of the race as far as i can see. Mark all right, we know new years resolutions will be made and most of them will be broken, but theres a whole lot we dont know about this coming year, 2016. Over the next couple of months, the question is which of our political storylines are you most eager to see unfold beyond who wins the primaries and caucuses . John hes a very polarizing figure, but whatever you think, barack obama is coming to the end of a historic eightyear run in the white house. He has gotten more done in the period when he was supposed to be a lame duck than anyone anticipated. He has done it and sometimes controversial ways three executive actions going. What can he not get done . He made it clear at his Closing Press conference that he said he was going to leave it all on the field. Its clear he does not want to be just a time server in this last year. To me, how barack obama ends his time in office, if hes able to put a few more points on the board and maybe one or two more legacy items that is a pretty interesting line to me historically. Mark mine are what happens when the negative ads start this coming month and who runs them and are they effective . In crowded fields, sometimes negative ads cancel out the attacker and attackee, and someone is able to sneak up the middle. The other is bill clinton has who has not been a very present figure in this race so far, but does he step more to the fore . And all of the republican candidates have been more lowprofile than people like Hillary Clinton, bill clinton, michelle obama, laura bush, even. John those are things to watch as we go forward. When we come back, we will gaze into the future, into our crystal ball, make some new years predictions of our own. Mark lets have some fun now with new years productions. Theres one safe thing to say its going to be a wild year. What do you see mr. Trumps strategy being, and how effective do you think it will be . John i think its more tactical than strategic, but i predict donald trump will not run a negative ad, not one. He will either bulldoze his way to the nomination without either having to without ever having to, or he will crumble in some unpredictable or unpredicted way, but i dont think he wants to spend the money and i think he knows if he runs negative, he will turn quickly into a bully. I think we are never going to see a negative ad from donald trump. Mark its good to end the year with one of us saying the single dumbest either of us has said. I dont think thats right. I think he is going to dominate the news. But not so much silly, captain obvious. Mark come january, we are getting close to iowa, and everybody is going to be like equal chance to be on the news. Trump knows he can dominate the news and blot everybody out. I think you are going to see big events, endorsements, stunts, provocative statements that allow him to lead the news every night, and that will make a huge difference. John i think we agree about this on the night of the iowa caucuses, if ted cruz wins and Donald Trumps second or third, the biggest story coming out is going to be donald trump. Mark the emperor has no close. John yes, walltowall, but trump will still be the focus. If on any day trump would be knocked out of the top spot, that would be it, and i dont think it will happen. It is an incredible piece of power that he commands. Mark the other thing i think he will do is i think he will continue to talk about the polls, but my prediction is that he will keep his National Poll standing, no matter what happens in the early state polls, that he will keep his National Poll standing and always have that as a talking point. John possibly right. How about ted cruz and marco rubio . We talked about cruz a second ago, but lets focus on those two who have spent the last bit of the year tangling with each other. What is your prediction for their strategies and how effective they will be . Mark i think cruz will keep up momentum in iowa and also surge in new hampshire, but if his positive upside continues nationally, you will see him cruise into second and maybe closer to trump, depending on what happens. The other thing i think will happen is that rubio, if he continues to attack cruz or not, he will move back to win the establishment vote. I think you will him start to see him flex back as needed. John one of the things you are seeing a little bit with cruz already and you will see a lot more come january is his attempt to try maybe with some play in new hampshire, as you suggested, but i think you see him focus on what happens after iowa. Focusing on South Carolina and southern states. He is tipping his hand and i think he will spend time down there. Especially as his lead grows in iowa. I think that is a smart play for him. You may be right about rubio and the establishment lane, but the thing that has mystified us for weeks as to why he is so fixated on cruz, and im starting to come to the conclusion that beyond whatever confusing strategy it is part of, there is also becoming a really intense personal animosity between them, and he may not be able to unlock himself from what i think is a mystifying strategy just because he is starting to dislike cruz. And the people around him think it is working, which i do not think there is much evidence it is. Mark the other thing youre going to see is cruzs super pac, which is sitting on a lot of money you will see them start to spend big and shake up the race and a lot of ways. That is a super pac that has a lot of money and a lot of ideas, reinforcing television messages with social media. John remember what i said about negative ads and donald trump that you said was stupid . I think the cruz super pacs are going to run a lot of negative ads. Mark what is going to be fascinating is to see cruz at times has been a little bit off his game. Rubio has not in terms of his style, and i think we will see some Opposition Research come out against rubio that will test his ability to continue to be calm, cool, and collected in the Pressure Cooker that will be the run up between now and the iowa caucus. John the research backed by paid negative media. Mark the last one Hillary Clinton. What do you see about her strategy coming out of the gate next month . John the Clinton Campaign has been focused all year long, and people have been not as aware of this as they should be they have been focused on iowa to the exclusion of almost all else. They essentially briefed reporters and said they are thinking of the whole nomination as a onestate battle because they knew if they could beat sanders in iowa, they would be home free. I think you are going to see in this next month and extraordinary amount of focus trying to replicate what barack obama did in 2008 in iowa. They understand. They say the whole thing could be over for them on february 2 if they win that iowa caucus. I think i have a reasonable chance of getting that done. Im not saying the whole thing is over. Im not predicting she will win, but i think there will be a show of strength. The muscle they will read into that is going to be evident, and it has a good chance of paying off. Mark i think you are going to see her bringing in major surrogates into iowa, not just her husband and celebrities, but you will try to see some events that bring her close to the ground. Celebrities, also the candidate herself, being close to the ground. John how do you think sanders can and will counter that . Mark he has got to get College Students to caucus at home. You do not want all of the College Students caucusing in University Towns because theres only a certain number of delegates you can win, no matter how overwhelming. They need to go back to where they live all over the state in order to try to spread out the support they have. The other thing is he needs some luck. He needs Hillary Clinton to make a mistake or the things in the news to play to his strength. She is going to bring in a lot of force, and she needs to win some news cycles. John all of these late debates matter, but republicans have two debates before iowa and democrats have only one. Almost the single most interesting event, to see how sanders performs when he feels he is in a mustwin, mustscore point situation. We cannot say this often enough if you are in washington, d. C. , you can now catch us on the radio. Just go to bloomberg 99. 1 fm at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time. This feels quite a bit stage. I will make sure you dont run into a wall. Is a cold outside . I have never seen you with a tie. How is the weather out there . John do you know your schedule right now . If i ask you what you were doing today, would you know . Where are we going now . I know im going to announce a program on syria. And i dont know where were going. Guess who played a Football Game last night . Steelers, they lost. In overtime. Is that what you predicted . I did. Its my pleasure and honor this morning to join senator sununu and Peter Thompson and so many other Public Officials and private citizens around the state in extending my endorsement to Governor John Kasich of ohio and his campaign for the office of president. Governor kasich this is a big deal to have Gordon Humphrey and, of course, Peter Thompson. I would like to call on the president of the United States and the leadership in the congress of the United States to create sanctuaries, safe havens in syria. Perhaps along the jordanian border. Perhaps along the border with turkey, where we would create nofly zones. Do you think they see you as a major threat now . Governor kasich whats interesting to me is they are kind of bragging about being in my library. I have a library in westerville. Its really cool. They set up my old Congressional Office and they have material from me being governor and all that. I love when people visit that library. I just never expected the bush people to be directed to that library, but they say they are having a lovely time. Mark what is the argument against the nofly zone . Governor kasich it would be provocative. Would not want to make the russians mad. Mark have you met putin . Governor kasich i never have. Mark what do you think of him . Governor kasich i think he is a bully and he will push you until you say no. Mark how do you score a day on the trail . What makes it a good day . Governor kasich for me, there are two ways in which i determine we had a good day and we had a lot of good days what i see with my eyes and what i feel with my gut. Mark how many calories do you think you will need today . Governor kasich i dont know. I dont think about it. Im not hungry right now. Mark oh, a town hall. Governor kasich shes young. Shes got years. Not that you dont. There were go, halperin. Screwed it up already. They are bragging that they are there investigating me. Come on. Seriously . Mark does your campaign look at other candidates records . Governor kasich none that i know at this point. We are certainly not going into their libraries and archives. At some point i guess we will probably do that, but its a little early for that . Maybe not. Mark did you check with anybody on your team, or that is just your instinct . Governor kasich no, i did not check with anybody. The three hardest jobs you have had . Governor kasich whats always the hardest thing for me i guess in any job is when i think i am sort of more natural to be i mean, i think i was sort of warned or raised or whatever to sort of the a leader. Whenever im in a position where i cannot lead, it is really hard for me. What is interesting about this process is its almost like training to run, you know, a race. The more you do it, the more you get accustomed to it. Mark when we come back, we will take another look at the summer focus group we did with donald Trump Supporters. You will want to see it after this. John when donald trump announced he was running for president , a lot of the press was not sure how seriously to treat his campaign. That changed for us at the end of july. We knew the phenomenon was real. Thats when we conducted it focus group of donald Trump Supporters in new hampshire. Here now is a look back at some of that fascinating and revealing conversation. Tells it like it is. Speaks the truth. John what truth is that . When he talks about especially immigration control and the border, he really he doesnt care what people think. He tells the truth, what we need to do. Yeah, i think hes probably whether its the truth or not, i think he tells you the way he feels. Like he says, he wont be bought off. Everybody else has the chance of being bought off. Summary many politicians go to washington, and they become completely you know, they dont work for the constituents anymore. The way i see it, the political rhetoric, most of the politicians talk in, let say, pastel colors. They talked for two of hours and you go away wondering what they have not with a subset of substance. Probably nothing. But they have not offended anybody and they try to make everybody their friend. Donald trump is vivid colors because he says things the way they are. He means business. I like his roughness. A little reaganesque. We need someone tough. John how many people in this room consider themselves members of the tea party . 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. If you didnt put your hands up, do you feel when you look at the Tea Party Like its basically a good thing, or that you dont have anything to do with that . I like ted cruz. I did not know much about the tea party, but after seeing him, listening to him, it made me kind of look into it a little bit more. Im not fullfledged, but its interesting. They do raise really good points. John im going to go around the room and ask you to name any other candidate who has struck you as being kind of promising or that you are interested in a little bit. Anyone who you look at them and you think you might be interested in them. Ben carson. Ben carson. Cannot think of anyone. Ben carson. Ted cruz. Cannot think of anyone. All the lowerlevel guys all had some very good points, but they are just not i dont want to vote in a primary for somebody i know that cannot make it. Ben carson. John anyone jump into your mind . Rubio, carson, trump . Carson, definitely. John theres a number of you who were romney supporters. For you, do you see romney and trump as being sort of similar . Successful businesspeople . I guess in the business sense, but as far as his maybe you could call elect ability, i think they are completely different. I think romney was a little too sensitive, and you could see that in the first debate, where he completely fell apart. I dont see that happening with donald trump. From what i can see, he is in touch with what everybody is thinking, what everybody wants, what is needed, like i said, not what people want to hear. He is still in tune with what everybody is wanting. John what do you like least about him . What concerns you most as a president ial candidate . If anything. Could be nothing, if you want. I think potentially, he could cross over with some inappropriate comments that would turn people off, and it would very much concerned me if he were the dump if he were were the nominee. In my opinion, what hurt romney was the success and was his money, and i think that could be trumps downfall as much as it is his asset. It could also be a weakness because of the way people perceive wealth. Some see it as success and others see it as greed. Somehow in america profit motive has come to equal greed in the mainstream media. And when you see a man who runs profitable businesses and is wealthy, he is a target for people to hate. John right, what about you . Anything to worry about . I think he could shoot himself in the foot. But if he did, he would make money out of it. [laughter] good point. John im curious about how long you have been admirers of mr. Trump. He obviously has never run for president before, but he is somewhat everyone in america knows because he is a celebrity and has been on television. Do people in this room first, who in this room, the first time donald trump came to their awareness was with the apprentice, that Television Show . Me. I watched from the beginning. We all know about trump towers. We know about him building casinos and Atlantic City and going bankrupt and having all these deals with banks and everything to try to get his fortune back. So i knew of him. The apprentice, i thought of him as arrogant and abrasive, but thats a tv show. His personality had to be that way or his famous statement, youre fired, would not have any teeth in it. Those are the only opinions i had to reference by until he started running. I was a little girl. I did not even know what trump towers were, but i knew he was a wealthy, successful man, and i remember asking my mother if i could write him a letter to ask how he made his money so that i could do it, too. John did you write that letter . I never wrote the letter, but i remember asking more about him and finding out that he was in real estate. But again, i did not even know what trump towers were. John even as a very young kid, the word trump meant rich . It meant success. John tell me what a Trump Presidency would look like. Better america. It would be cleaned up. You would not have all these thertments within government wasting away, having secret email accounts and servers. You just would not have any of that. He would clean house and ensure that america is on the path to prosperity again. None of the czars and bureaucracy, department of this and department of that. I think it would be exciting. I look forward to it. An interesting thing every day. More transparent. It would be nice to see that debt clock start going the other way. Classy. I feel like he would bring a lot of Companies Back to our country and be a lot more promising than it is and has been. To the american people, it would be a presidency of hope. John that is just part of it. More of our donald Trump Focus Group when we come back. Mark heres part two of our donald Trump Focus Group did over the summer. I dont think he represents the Republican Party, and his views are way out of the mainstream of what republicans think. Hes not a stupid guy, so i dont assume that he thinks every mexican crossing the border is a rapist. He is doing this to inflame and insight. John what do you guys think about that criticism . What are these fringe ideas he is putting out there that mainstream conservatives do not agree with . What is he talking about . I think it is jealousy. He does not like how trump is doing right now and he is doing anything to try to discredit him to make himself feel better and sway people over towards him. Take him off my list. [laughter] Donald Trumps candidacy is a cancer on conservatism, and it must be clearly diagnosed, excised, and discarded. John what do you guys think of rick perry . I liked rick perry until this came out. Makes trump look like a teddy bear. Obviously, trump is a threat because he does not fit in the same box all the other republicans are in. That is why we are hearing stuff from jed bush, now stuff from rick perry hearing stuff from jeb bush, now stuff from rick perry. When he referred to some Illegal Immigrants as rapists, that bothered people, did not bother people what was your reaction . It not bother me. Did not bother me. I think it was too generalized. That was a concern. If he had said some of the people coming in do this, do that, but he said it in general they are this, they are that and i think that is what got the criticism. Not that he is wrong. Its the way he said it. In too much of a generalized way. But he also said some of them were good people. Yes, he did. Thats what i was going to bring up. He said not all of them are bad, but theres a lot. John for a long time, donald trump was very prochoice, in favor of abortion rights. He says he is now having second thoughts. For many years, he was prochoice. Does that bother anybody in the room . Yes, that bothers me. John did you know donald trump was prochoice for a long time . I did not. John would that affect your view in some way . It improves my view to know that now he has taken the prolife stance. I would say he has seen the light. John we mentioned trump was a democrat for a long time thats true. He has given a ton of money to democratic candidates. Does that bother people in the room, that he was a democratic donor until recently . Hundreds of thousands of dollars is like me giving a quarter. Thats the past. I dont hold that against him, that all of a sudden, he has decided he is more aligned in his thoughts and everything with the Republican Party than the democrats. He seems more independent. John for many years, trump would say he was conservative on a lot of issues but liberal on a lot of issues, and one of those he was liberal on was health care. For a long time, he supported a singlepayer health care plan. How many of you knew that . How long ago was that . John not that long ago. Its troubling. John there has been talk that if trump does not get the book of economic nation, he might run as a thirdparty independent candidate. Who would be open to supporting donald trump as an independent candidate and why . The only thing i could ink of that would force him out is the republican establishment the only thing i could think of that would force him out as the republican establishment and the rnc. If thats the case, i would vote trump as an independent and it would teach republicans a lesson. John those of you who would not support trump if he ran as an independent, why not . Ross perot. John you think it would help elect a democrat . Yes, it has been proven. Mark next up, candidates get personal. Mark one of the many bonuses of this job is the chance to get to know on a personal level many women who aspire to be leader of the free world. Take a listen to some of our conversations with them. What do you do for exercise . I run for office. No, i play golf. I play tennis. I love sports. I do not have much time for exercising, but i love sports. Here is a question ive been wanting to ask you for a while we never get to see you eat. What do you like to eat . Trump i love to eat the food we have here pasta, french fries, all the things we should not be eating. Do you eat like a normal person, three meals a day . Trump i try. What do you like . Trump bacon, eggs, steak. I hear good and bad. It changes. They dont know what they are doing. I eat what i like. Carson the wonderful thing is i was in the airport yesterday on the way here, sitting down. An old lady comes up to me and says, im a staunch democrat, but i love you. Thats pretty good. That could be ben carsons slogan staunch democrats love me. At the end of every week, i would have maybe five cents in the checking account. I remember needing to rent an apartment, and the landlord asking how much money was in my checking account, and i wrote down 50 because that was true. I lived paycheck to paycheck. She wanted to live so bad. She got sick, like i say, sometime in the fall of 1975, going through chemotherapy. When you have a Family Member who is in a bad way, you want to will them well. God knows she did not want to give up. Easter 1976, she had her best easter. She cooked dinner for the first time in a long time. Mark just before of you, or some family . There was some family at first, but in the evening, it was just us sitting on the couch, and i remember her saying, i gave you a good dinner, and we said yes, you did. We thought maybe we would be the 1 , but by june, she was gone. I said i was going to run for the United States. They burst out laughing. I think sometimes, people just do not understand me. Some people knew me 20 years ago and are commenting who i am today. Im not who i was 20 years ago. I like who i was 20 years ago, but i like who i am now. Everything was fine. No big gyrations. It was just good. I enjoyed it. It was really fun to deliver the talk. Im not going to engage in the medias game of bashing another candidate. Im just not going to do it. Mark some people say that the wont do it is to make sure if he does get out of the race, you win the supporters he has now. Is this a political calculation . Cruz im not going to go into the gutter with impugning attacks with personal attacks and impugning character. I do think policy is fair game. That is what is supposed to be i do think policy is fair game. That is what is supposed to be butteread and takes, but im not going to engage in personal attacks and impugning anyone elses character. I want all 1200 people, including Hillary Clinton supporters, to come out. Mark when you get nervous, what happens . Sanders i get louder. John if you had to choose between them . John has become a friend over the last few years. Bruce, i have a cordial relationship with. We know each other. We have worked on some things together. Even though i have been to 120 four Bruce Springsteen shows and i have been to four bon jovi shows, from a musical perspective, bruce is in my history, but jon has become a friend. John Desert Island discs, if you could take the catalog of one or the other. Christie springsteen. John senator, we are going to give you a shot at this and also talk politics while he do it. Lets see how you do. Whoa hole in one. Thank you all very much. Tonight, good luck. Good night, good luck. I wonder if all president s have press conference while eating iowa pork. Do you have any tattoos . Did you ever get close . Not that i could remember. Getting elected one vote at a time is that a challenge . 330 Million People it is challenging. You have to be here. You cannot helicopter in and leave. You have to be all in. He gave out my cell phone number on live television, so i had fun with it. At the end of the day, we will get serious. This is the silly season. John and we will be right back. Mark this coming year promises to be a monumental one is the nation chooses its next president. We help you will join us throughout the year to watch it unfold. John we cannot say this often enough if you are in washington, d. C. , our nations capital, you can catch us on the radio radio. Just go to bloomberg 99. 1 fm. Until next year, we thank you for watching. Happy new year and a final sayonara to 2015. Emily he got his start as a journalist with a front row seat to steve jobs inner circle. And wrote the seminal book on the early years at apple. Then, Michael Moritz decided to try his luck in venture capital. He went on to become one of the most heralded investors in Silicon Valley history, joining the boards of google and yahoo , then, a few years ago, took a step back for a Rare Health Condition he has never revealed. Joining me today on studio 1. 0, sir Michael Moritz, chairman of Sequoia Capital and coauthor of the new book