With all due respectto Vladimir Putin. The best case is the Iranian Nuclear dill falls through. The best case for obama is he loses the israeli election. Crexendo get better in a big hurry although there is a big question mark there. There will be a deal. The administration continues to overestimate the chances of the deal and the big question will be is what happens if there is no deal. Is there disunity about sanctions or is this a military strike . That is right. Also the question is if there is a deal which is where Congress Tries to sabotage, what happens then . That is the end of sanctions. The p5 plus one hits a deal sanctions will no longer be multilateral. What do you think of John Boehners performance of defending the speech it was the right way to do it. It was negotiated by the israeli ambassador who at one time was a gop political functionary. He was a hardliner in israel and thinks this was a big mistake. It will be fascinating. Netanyahu is pretty skillful. He was playing the crowd pretty effectively. He started out by saying who is from florida . He will play congress in a sophisticated way. It will give him the day and the president will have to wait for another day. It will be a forceful and successful speech. With no solution in sight to fund the department of homeland security, things were confounding at the last reel of birdman. There is another friday deadline moving. Unless they want to capitulate. This was a dumb fight to begin with. John mainer knows that ended some point he will have to stand up to the crazies in his caucus. Let the there is a clean bill and he says do i i do not care about my conference. To bvote ultimately he has no choice. That is a better option. It could cost him his speakership. To defund homeland security. He is in a terrible dilemma. There is no one else that i could see. If you go to the left of john boehner it will make that very strong rightwing caucus even stronger. What we have learned, there was a mantra that last year that the tea party suffered and somehow it would be a more pragmatic house and get things done and pick their battles, were finding that base is very unforgiving. The thing i am fascinated by his they will get yours through this. What are mcconnell and boehner going to do Going Forward . This will come up. It will the public does not seem to mind in the media lets them get away with it. It will be difficult for them to have a repeat of this exact thing and to go to the floor and bail on a vote. And he cant deliver. That is the whole reason he got that job. Their relationship started off strong. Mcconnell can do what he has to and john boehner cannot. There is no way out on this one. President obama has to navigate the politics of russia. John kerry threatened russia with the sword sanctions. Things get rough. Is who lost russia going to be an issue Going Forward . I did not know we had it to start with. If things get worse, or their allies occupied ukraine it will be a problem for the democrats in 2016. There is a possibility of sanctions. This country is a basket based back case. What do you think the administration can possibly do . President obama cannot intimidate Vladimir Putin and theres not much he can offer him. Theres nothing they seem to be able to do to improve the relationship. If it were just in isolation he could see he could say lets deny russian banks that international settlement. That would take an economy into a tailspin. The difficulties are there are other issues including iran that we need the russians on. But you cannot tolerate their continued for lack of a better term e over there. You look at the thing people cite most often is why werent the why wont they better equip the ukrainian government. It is not going to make much difference. Love these economic sanctions including the Bank Sanctions would make a lot more different. If we supply more weapons to ukraine he can ratchet up and he has more wherewithal from the do. He cannot do that on the economic front. The ukrainians are not going to beat the ukrainians but the russians may be themselves beat to themselves. Loud and a little bit more intoxicating. There will be another summit in des moines. After cpac, which republican candidates do you consider to be part of the toptier . Scott walker, jeb bush, and rand paul. Totally agree. I think bush is in it because of fundraising and other things walker is in because he is a momentum guy and he is the also alternative. Iran rand paul has support. People are looking at marco rubio as a new kind of guy. He will be a strong superpac fundraiser. With marco rubio and walker loving toward the center and more of the establishment with paul and the Grassroots Tea Party and populists and libertarian wing, i think there is room for the kind of guy ted cruz is and he was pretty strong at cpac. I think youre right. Whether it ted cruz or huckabee, even ben carson will emerge. For rubio to climb he gave a wellreceived speech and no one really supported him in their stronghold. Jeb bush has to not crash but he has to certainly slip a lot. Anything based on jeb bushs performance they give you pause in terms of evaluating him as a strong candidate . A thigh was a good performance but it was an easy performance. Sean hannity asked a bunch of softballs and it was a great fo forr aum hostile audience. He did very well but i do not think it was revealing. In terms of scott walker, anything that gave you posit about him . He is changing a number of positions most recently on immigration. He has two for that party. So far he looks to those of us in the press, sometimes he looks little bit clumsy but it does not seem to have affected rankandfile republicans. He is having a good month. He is much more poised under pressure more than some people thought including me. Hillary clintons spokesmen circulated at talking points memo responding to attacks on the clinton foundation. Her team is getting ready to make a slew of new hires. She is thinking about getting into the race in april. The upside being cold hard cash. Some are worried there are she is being too passive. What do you see as the downside is she if she gets in showing soon . Not much as we saw. This is a little bit of an overblown decision. She has to sit down with you and john. Jeb bush has been in the race in a sense but he has not talked to the press very often. I asked him such hardhitting questions like, was that fun and were you nervous . He is not doing a lot of press availability. We expect him to Start Talking to the press in the next couple of days. I do think there is a downside. The clintons get different treatment, usually worse treatment. After she gets in there will be a swell of investigative reporting and if she starts to talk to reporters there is a lot of [inaudible] floating out there. Republicans will start to drop some of that stuff and she is sequestered now in cloistered away. She is a better candidate when she is not out on the trail. There has to be something big. What role does chelsea play . I suspect she will have some role. If bill clinton decides he will raise super pac money that will be formidable. There is the bill. When we come back we will open up president obamas little black book and ask the question with him does the american president have a worse relationship, netanyahu or putin . That is next. My speakers speech is not injected to inject israel. Israel should always remain a bipartisan issue. The u. S. Israel partnership transcends politics. The last thing i would want is for israel to be a partisan issue. That was Prime Minister netanyahu and Samantha Power talking about how the speech he is giving should not be political so lets talk about the politics of all this. His last name happens to be an excellent crossword puzzle word. Before we get to that discussion we want to replay a little bit more of what happened at aipac and show the disagreement between the speakers on iran. We believe diplomacy is the preferred route to secure our [inaudible] we know the stakes of a Nuclear Armed iran as well as everyone here. We will not let it happen. No one makes alliances with the week. You seek out those who have strength, those who have resolved, those who have determination. That is how alliances are formed. We defend ourselves in so doing create the basis of a broader alliance. Today we have a voice. [applause] and tomorrow is Prime Minister of the one and only jewish state i plan to use that voice. By what metrics will the Israeli Government and Benjamin Netanyahu judge the success or failure of tomorrow . Including the most pertinent what happens with the israeli election. Secondly it is what you and others say. And what is the effect on what is an evolving u. S. Debate about the nuclear negotiations. You have seen previous times of tension between israel and the u. S. Especially with tim baker. Is this of a different order or is this one of those periodic things i go through . We had disagreements over settlements and those were disagreements that were somewhat episodic. This is the numeral normal. It is also the old normal. If netanyahu continues it is likely to go on for the next two years. This is not taking place in isolation. In the middle east it is going through its worst time of modern history. You have the iran nuclear talks. The u. S. And israel will have to make some fateful decisions about everything from iran to maybe jordan. At a moment when there is not a modicum of trust and the basic relationship is broken down. You have group talks with the iranians. Is it possible the u. S. Could strike a deal and try to make it stick if israel did ounces it as something that is not going to stop israel from developing a nuclear weapon. In principle, yes. If the israelis say one centrifuge is one too many. If they stick out an extreme position it loses the american center. What mr. Kerry and the president will have to do is basically say the limits on irans capabilities are real but the inspections are significant. What could be the most difficult point to defend is the idea that any idea might have a limited duration. Sanctions would be off after seven years and then what constraints are what pressures what the u. S. Have on iran . The israelis are likely to be more influential if they do not stake out an extreme position. He might stick out what you call a demanding position. What would you say are the implications for the relationship based on the assassination over the weekend between the u. S. And russia . It is not much of a relationship to begin with. It has been strained by previous problems domestically. Obviously by ukraine. Differences over syria. This relationship has been reset button in the wrong direction. What we see is a lawless russia externally and internally. We are lucky to have a minimum relationship. It is a nonrelationship where russia has become a spoiler. It has become an outlier. The question is how do we keep it from getting even worse which you know it could become even worse in places like the baltics. Let me ask you one question. The gdp is down 3 . There has what about if we ratchet it up further and make it so. It is a total asking case. Could that has affect behavior . They row question is whether the europeans would go a long absent new provocations in europe. The last thing we want to do is turn this into a transatlantic dispute rather than a dispute with russia. Vladimir putin is more sensitive to the oil price. That has been the biggest sanction but they still have several hundred billion dollars so they have a bit of a cushion. They could still make things worse. We have to think it through. As bad as or put in is we want to make sure what we said in motion does not bring in some farther right alternative to the far right. We will be right back. There are many words to describe congress but we were inspired by the latest one. Breaking it down for our youngest viewers. It is another edition of Bloomberg Politics for kids. Todays vocabulary word is brought to us by House Speaker john boehner. The house is a rambunctious place. What does rambunctious mean . It can be used like this. How is it down there . A little rambunctious. It can be used like this. Paper used to be a hyper used to be a rambunctious dog. And apparently this. The house by nature and by design is a hell of a lot more rambunctious. Letsts sound it out. The house is a rambunctious place. [echo] now you try it out. Tomorrow, what does triangulation mean . See you then. Thanks for watching children of all ages. We will be right back. We are live 247 on Bloomberg Politics. Com. We want to thank al hunt for joining us. Up next taking stock. Sayonara. I am him stock and this is what i am taking stock of on monday march 2, 2015. The nasdaq is about 5000. The nasdaq gained nearly 1 . Shares fell more than 25 today. Sunday evening a cbs 60 minutes reporter accused the company of selling illegal levels of formaldehyde. Basically they have been poisoning their customers
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